The WTO option is clearly better than Chequers

There are several options for our departure, but if the Prime Minister says the choice has to be Chequers or just leaving, just leaving is best.
The trouble with Chequers is it offers us a detailed and unattractive Withdrawal Agreement followed by 21 more months in the EU with more uncertainty. Many MPs have no wish to pay the EU £39 bn for that.

This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. Both comments and trackbacks are currently closed.

179 Comments

  1. Stred
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 6:18 am | Permalink

    Prof Minford’s analysis preferred WTO. Others prefer Canada +. Mrs May with her helper Mr Barwell were pictured on BBC last night having a friendly chat with Herr Junker and she seems to think that their sell out is best for the country. She didn’t say whether she meant the EU or UK.

    • Peter
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 8:29 am | Permalink

      Anything could happen.

      One scenario is the EU realise that Chequers is as much as they will get. So they agree with fudge words to cover any problem areas. May takes that to Parliament. It gets voted down.

      What happens then? Leave on WTO ? Remainers would fight it. A so-called ‘Peoples Vote’ would be premature because there would still be no agreed UK. A general election?

      • Peter
        Posted September 17, 2018 at 8:41 am | Permalink

        ‘Conservative Home’ points out that the vote is around the Withdrawal Bill not Chequers or any particular plan.

        So if everything is a vague fudge May hopes to see off objections from both Remain and Leave.

        EU hopes to get the £39 billion and fight any future concessions with that already in its coffers.

        • Hope
          Posted September 18, 2018 at 8:29 pm | Permalink

          WTO was the only option when we all voted to leave. May has not improved upon it.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 8:34 am | Permalink

      Prof. Minford is exactly right as he has consistently been in the past. Checkers is appalling, just leave or Canada ++ and negotiate on individual matters as needed after leaving as a nation state. The negotiations between the EU and the UK will be ongoing for ever anyway. Just as they are with most other countries, mutual interests of the UK and EU will prevail.

      May, Hammond and Carney seem totally unable to see this despite the fact that it is blindingly obvious. All three should go now. Replace with a leader who is actually Conservative and not a dim, electoral liability and a dishonest robotic LibDem.

      The main danger is not moving to WTO rules post Brexit it is a Corbyn/McDonnall/SNP trip to Venezuela.

      May is going to give us this if she is allowed to continue with her disingenuous lunacy.

    • Rien Huizer
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 2:00 pm | Permalink

      Minford’s analysis is precisely of the wrong type to assess the immediate damage (or benefit) of a no deal exit. Pity for him but he does not have the resources to do a good job and what he did ignores short term adjustment. Better to consult work from reputable sources, even the BoE, the Treasury or the IMF.

      It is of course quite possible that Minfords long term predictions turn out to be true, but that is besides the point. No one can forecast macro that far, it is just a mathematical exercise where, by selecting or ignoring certain parameters and conditions one arrives at aresult that pleases.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted September 17, 2018 at 6:25 pm | Permalink

        “reputable sources, even the BoE, the Treasury or the IMF”

        Sources that have proved to be wrong wrong wrong over and over again. All in favour of the ERM and the EURO at various points too.

      • Richard1
        Posted September 17, 2018 at 7:35 pm | Permalink

        He argues that removing tariffs boosts trade. More trade means more prosperity. All the evidence of history and contemporary experience around the world supports his argument.

    • NickC
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 3:29 pm | Permalink

      Stred, Mrs May and Olly Robbins (etc) are suffering under the delusion that they get to choose the outcome. They are wrong. We, the people, already decided the outcome: Leave.

  2. Roy Grainger
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 6:32 am | Permalink

    As the EU have already explicitly rejected parts of Chequers (staying just in the SM for goods for example) then I conclude the choice is only “nothing”. But of course May knows the HoC will vote for another choice rather than “nothing” – delay and staying in.

    • eeyore
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 8:44 am | Permalink

      Roy – Quite right. Cans, roads and kicking seem key ingredients of all Mrs May’s policies. It may be politics, of a sort, but it sure ain’t statesmanship.

      Meanwhile she is transparently manoeuvring to dump blame for failure on MPs like our host. Two points deserve notice: first, that she assumes Chequers will fail, and second, the high political and moral courage of JR and his fellow Brexit MPs, who will, if she has her way, take the bullets for her government’s culpable incompetence.

      She would do better to reflect on the two valuable years squandered. Had matters been handled properly there would be no bullets to take.

      • Original Richard
        Posted September 17, 2018 at 11:08 pm | Permalink

        It will not become difficult for the UK electorate to be convinced that the blame for any failure to leave the EU will be down to an EU supporting Tory PM and her EU supporting collaborators in cabinet and Parliament.

        If they seize power and refuse to implement the EU referendum result and their own party manifestos with a Chequers type of “deal” so the UK becomes a vassal state/colony of the EU, accepting rules, regulations and taxation without representation, then I think these MPs and Parliament will become so unpopular that there would be huge changes to our existing political parties and Parliament, even with the current FPTP system, at the next available GE.

        Too many people voted to leave the EU and too many people are now fully aware of the anti-democratic direction in which the EU is moving for EU membership, or worse still, vassal state membership, to be electorally acceptable.

  3. Peter Wood
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 6:33 am | Permalink

    Dr. Redwood,
    There is too much ‘weight’ against the WTO arrangement; for too long too many MP’s have allowed the MSM to give it apocalyptic descriptions, crash, cliff-edge etc. Your best hope is to get behind a well constructed Canada ++ FTA and publish it. The Brexiteers must then hit the pavement to sell it as the better deal.

  4. Know-Dice
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 6:33 am | Permalink

    Yes, agreed

    No deal is much better than Her deal.

    Uncertainty is much worse than no deal or her deal

  5. hans christian ivers
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 6:38 am | Permalink

    JR,

    The WTO option does not seem to be recommended either by the BoE, Treasury, OECD, CBi IoD or IMF, so no John the WTO offer is not necessarily better than the Chequers outline for the country and for our economy.

    • L Jones
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 8:17 am | Permalink

      When you refer to ”OUR economy”, Mr Ivers, do you mean the UK’s or the EU’s?

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted September 18, 2018 at 5:21 am | Permalink

        UK

        • NickC
          Posted September 18, 2018 at 8:28 am | Permalink

          Hans, You cannot have two masters. Either stop promoting the EU, in which case we will be more likely – when trust has been restored – to believe you mean the UK when you say “our”; or continue to eulogise the EU, and we won’t believe you. It’s one or the other.

          • hans christian ivers
            Posted September 18, 2018 at 1:30 pm | Permalink

            Nick,

            You forgot I do not want your trust

    • Jagman84
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 8:41 am | Permalink

      It’s the way we trade with the bulk of our non-EU customers and at a healthy surplus. The EU trade with others in the world under the same conditions. The individuals and organisations you quote, wish to maintain the huge surpluses the EU enjoys, trading with the UK.

    • Mockbeggar
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 8:59 am | Permalink

      It seems to me that the condemnation of WTO by the organisations you list is an excellent endorsement of the idea.

      • Caterpillar
        Posted September 17, 2018 at 6:45 pm | Permalink

        Agreed.

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted September 18, 2018 at 7:01 am | Permalink

        Mockbeggar

        you should talk to Mr. Trump about the WTO

        • NickC
          Posted September 18, 2018 at 8:29 am | Permalink

          Hans, Why?

          • hefner
            Posted September 18, 2018 at 8:24 pm | Permalink

            NickC, you should follow the news more closely if you don’t know how Mr Trump considers the WTO.

    • Edward2
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 9:18 am | Permalink

      They are all part of the pro EU new elite establishment.
      What view did you expect them to have ?

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted September 18, 2018 at 7:00 am | Permalink

        Edward 2
        A better one than the ERG lot

        • NickC
          Posted September 18, 2018 at 8:34 am | Permalink

          Hans, No. For two reasons. Their historical record of doom for the UK if we did not join the latest euro-fad is risible. Secondly, they fail totally to acknowledge that most countries on the planet are not in the EU (therefore what is the reason(s) that makes it impossible for the UK to be not in the EU?).

    • sm
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 9:37 am | Permalink

      Based on the overall track records of the organisations you cite, Hans, compared to that of our host, I’ll stick with Mr Redwood’s recommendations.

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted September 18, 2018 at 6:59 am | Permalink

        SM

        That is of course entirely up to you. Talking about JR maybe you should look back to what happened in 1995.

    • ian wragg
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 9:41 am | Permalink

      I believe you are a Brussels troll. Chequers keeps us in Vassal statehood in perpetuity . Remainers, leavers and the EU don’t like Chequers so why is it so attractive to you?

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted September 18, 2018 at 6:57 am | Permalink

        Dennis Zoff

        Yes just like ERG

    • Dennis Zoff
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 10:06 am | Permalink

      Hans, you really are so funny, especially as you actually believe them?….BoE, Treasury, OECD, CBi IoD or IMF are a total joke!

    • libertarian
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 10:15 am | Permalink

      hans

      So the WTO option is not recommended by anyone who is completely aligned with and supports the EU. In business hans we take what our “competitors” say with a pinch of salt

      When will people wake up and realise that 92% of UK businesses do NO trade overseas currently, this obsession with EU trade is completely out of whack with the reality of where our economic growth is. As you said a while back hans, and I agree, there are far more important things that the government should be urgently addressing

      For example

      1) The housing crisis

      2) The crazy immigration policies currently in place

      3) Transport infrastructure

      4) Broadband

      5) The huge rate of taxation

      6) The failure of the NHS

      • Lifelogic
        Posted September 17, 2018 at 6:28 pm | Permalink

        The appalling public service.

        The highest taxes for 40 + years.

        Crime out of control and the police have given up on nearly all crimes,

        An expensive court system that does not work

        Idiotic employment laws that damage employment,

    • Christine
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 10:29 am | Permalink

      Aren’t these the organisations that told us we would be doomed if we didn’t join the Euro? Never take advice from someone who has a vested interest in the decision. They have lost all credibility in my view. If I performed so poorly in my job I would have been fired long since.

    • mickc
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 12:02 pm | Permalink

      Haha! And since when did any of them know what they’re doing? Politically motivated the lot of them…and it isn’t politics in favour of anyone but themselves!

    • John Hatfield
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 2:07 pm | Permalink

      All globalist, pro EU organisations, so what else would you expect?
      John is correct. Leaving to trade under WTO rules would save the UK £billions.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted September 17, 2018 at 6:28 pm | Permalink

        Exactly

    • Helen Smith
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 3:01 pm | Permalink

      The fact that those organisations, who all thought we should join the Euro or else go bust remember, are against WTO confirms it is indeed the best option all round.

    • Stephen Priest
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 3:20 pm | Permalink

      When the BBC is giving a Conservative Prime Minister a sycophantic showcase you know she must being doing a lot wrong.

      In other words a lot right in the eyes of the BBC.

      Nick Robinson: ” What happened to that Bloody Difficult Woman the Whole Nation fell in love with”

      Theresa May: ” I am still that bloody difficult woman”

      Nick Robinson: ” I know, but lovely with it”

      • Steve
        Posted September 17, 2018 at 6:04 pm | Permalink

        Stephen Priest

        Nick Robinson: ” What happened to that Bloody Difficult Woman the Whole Nation fell in love with”

        Theresa May: ” I am still that bloody difficult woman”

        Nick Robinson: ” I know, but lovely with it”

        Robinson does not speak for me, in fact I don’t know anyone who loves the woman.

        What does the clown mean by ‘lovely’ ? There’s nothing lovely about someone who’s hijacked the people’s vote and is doing her best to force her own definition of brexit.

        Despicable and ghastly are better descriptions.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted September 17, 2018 at 6:30 pm | Permalink

        A bloody disingenuous idiot more like it. One who will give us Corbyn/SNP at this rate.

    • NickC
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 3:36 pm | Permalink

      Hans, 98% of global trade uses the WTO system. Your list of (extremely biased) actors appear to have overlooked this fact. I wonder why? Most countries in the world are independent of the EU, and already use the WTO system (as indeed do we for our RoW exports). You have spectacularly failed to come up with a single reason why the UK could not be as independent as Australia, Japan, India, etc, etc.

    • William Long
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 4:19 pm | Permalink

      I should have thought that the fact that none of these institutions are recommending the WTO option is a pretty strong indication that it is indeed the best course available to us.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted September 17, 2018 at 6:31 pm | Permalink

        Exactly

  6. Narrow Shoulders
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 6:38 am | Permalink

    TINA

    The politician’s childish tantrum

    The EU has dismissed the Chequers proposal so leaving with no deal appears more likely.

    If there are now only two outcomes we should make sure preparations are advanced for both scenarios not just the Prime Minister’s preferred choice.

  7. MPC
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 6:47 am | Permalink

    Agreed. We need the efforts of yourself and your colleagues more than ever now Mr Redwood given some latest proposals. The London Mayor confirming the view that a 2nd referendum choice should be a Hobsons choice of Chequers or remaining in the EU; Mr Gove’s statement that Chequers is right for now and future governments can change it as they see fit – in other words they can edge us further back in without public consent through delegated legislation.

    I would support a new referendum should we leave fully and after several years once people have realised we can live perfectly well without EU membership. That would only be fair.

  8. DUNCAN
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 6:52 am | Permalink

    We’re not interested John. We want May gone and we want a proper Tory in charge. We don’t want a liberal left, virtue signalling puppet.

    The Tory party is in desperate need of another Thatcher or indeed another Churchill. Principled, moral and indomitable.

    May’s not going to capitulate to the Eurosceptic wing of the Tory party. She’s done her liberal left best to portray Eurosceptics as xenophobic, racist bigots. And you John belong to the same party as she does. I don’t know how you can keep your calm in such company. I admire your sense of self restraint

    Modern politics is now dominated by narrative, slander and the liberal left construct in which white hetero-males are portrayed as antediluvian, misogynistic reactionaries whose views and presence be treated with contempt

    Eurosceptics should either dispense with this Tory fake as our leader or leave the stage because the silent Tory voter is becoming tired of this charade

  9. Richard1
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 7:05 am | Permalink

    Chequers is also worse than Remain as Boris Johnson says. I think you need to get rid of Mrs May, she is now clearly dug in on Chequers – BRINO. It’s a pity the Brexit side is in such a pickle with the ERG not publishing it’s proposal – it should have published it a year ago. I think Norway for Now as advocated by George Trefgarne is also greatly preferable to Chequers & the withdrawal agreement.

    Reply Proposals have been published – there are plenty of thought through option.

    • Richard1
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 9:17 am | Permalink

      that is true but these thought through options haven’t coalesced around a single option and can therefore plausibly be presented by Continuity Remain as no real alternative – as Mrs May is now asserting.

  10. Adam
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 7:05 am | Permalink

    Just leave.

    Those who want to pay the £39bn should pay the cost personally. They & they only are responsible for it.

    • NickC
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 3:37 pm | Permalink

      Adam, Just so.

  11. Peter
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 7:10 am | Permalink

    Agreed. Therefore it is now up to Leave MPs to throw a spanner in the works and ensure Chequers does not get through Parliament.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 8:37 am | Permalink

      Indeed perhaps rather more than a spanner.

  12. Andy
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 7:11 am | Permalink

    Not true. There is one option for departure – and one only. And that is a Brexit which delivers in full on the promises outlined by Vote Leave in 2016 – but which also respects the result of the general election in 2017, in which hard Brexit lost.

    Unless you can deliver Brexit on those precise terms – and you can’t – then you have no mandate for any Brexit.

    • Richard1
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 9:18 am | Permalink

      well there’s certainly no mandate for just cancelling Brexit! The one point of agreement of Labour and Conservative on Brexit at least in the 17 election was leaving the single market and customs union. i agree Labour seem to be reversing this position now, and so more or less is Mrs May.

    • libertarian
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 10:19 am | Permalink

      Andy

      We can’t deliver anything, its in the hands of our politicians, who are currently trying to cheat us…. again

      The so called soft Brexit/remain option got less than 9% of the vote, which dear boy means that 91% voted for parties accepting we will leave the EU

      So yes we can leave, except our two faced lying politicians are trying to keep us in.

      This won’t end well for them, The Conservative Party or the future of parliamentary democracy

    • BOF
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 11:16 am | Permalink

      Odd that over 80% of voters voted for parties that promised we would leave the CU and SM plus the jurisdiction of the ECJ. Chequers does not comply with those manifesto commitments.

    • mickc
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 12:07 pm | Permalink

      Hard Brexit wasn’t on the ballot paper at the General Election. The effective choice was Jeremy Corbyn Socialism or vote for me I’m not Jeremy Corbyn! Even as a Brexiteer for me the former was preferable to the latter…

    • libertarian
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 1:26 pm | Permalink

      Andy

      Oh dear yet another reverse ferret from Remain

      For months Brexiteers have been pilloried by Remainer pundits, politicians and broadcasters for suggesting that technological solutions could keep the Irish border open after Brexit. Today the EU has reverse-ferreted to report glowingly that technological solutions for the border are now being secretly considered… . Brexiteers have always argued that opposition to a tech border was political, not practical…

      Blimey Remain are really running out of any reason to stay aren’t they

      • Turboterrier.
        Posted September 17, 2018 at 6:45 pm | Permalink

        libertarian

        Blimey Remain are really running out of any reason to stay aren’t they

        There were never any good reasons to stay in the first place, not then, not now and not ever.

        • hans christian ivers
          Posted September 18, 2018 at 7:02 am | Permalink

          Turboterrier
          nor are there any good reasons for a WTO solution

          • NickC
            Posted September 18, 2018 at 8:39 am | Permalink

            Hans, Yes there are. Two excellent reasons (at least): 1) The WTO system is already a solution used by us and the world for 98% of global trade. 2) It gets us free of your rotten EU.

    • Roy Grainger
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 2:48 pm | Permalink

      The GE in 2017 produced a massive majority for the two parties who had manifesto commitments to leave the Single Market, Customs Union, and to stop free movement. The WTO option does precisely that.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted September 17, 2018 at 6:32 pm | Permalink

        Exactly.

    • NickC
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 3:41 pm | Permalink

      Andy, Neither Labour nor Conservative stood on a platform in 2017 to overturn the Leave vote. Only the LibDems did, and they lost out spectacularly. There is no such thing as “hard” Brexit, there is only Leave or Remain.

      • Andy
        Posted September 17, 2018 at 8:21 pm | Permalink

        Yeah – that’s why you hard right Brexiteers are in such a pickle. You deal only in black and white – and the world is actually a shade of grey.

        • NickC
          Posted September 18, 2018 at 8:41 am | Permalink

          Andy, Being independent of the EU is perfectly normal – most of the planet is.

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted September 18, 2018 at 7:03 am | Permalink

        NIck C

        As usual you are being a bit quick here, but that is not unusual

        • NickC
          Posted September 18, 2018 at 8:41 am | Permalink

          Hans

          As usual you are being a bit vacuous here, but that is not unusual

          • hans christian ivers
            Posted September 18, 2018 at 1:36 pm | Permalink

            NickC

            Grow up

    • Paul H
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 5:09 pm | Permalink

      Hard Brexit did not lose in 2017. Parties advocating anything else received about 15% support.

      • Fedupsoutherner
        Posted September 17, 2018 at 7:37 pm | Permalink

        PaulH. So what? Do you remember the result of the referendum?

    • Edward2
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 6:58 pm | Permalink

      Andy
      The 2017 election was fought on many issues.
      Brexit was a minor part.
      The two parties that said they wanted to remain lost ground.
      The two parties that said they respected the result of the referendum and would leave got over 80% of the votes cast.
      We are not in charge of brexit negotiations.
      Please aim your rants at those who are.

  13. Tad Davison
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 7:12 am | Permalink

    By constantly kicking the can down the road, this remainer Prime Minister is, even now, hoping that something will turn up that will change the people’s minds and reverse the original decision. She deserves our fullest contempt for this subterfuge and certainly gets mine. I absolutely detest her kind, and that includes Hammond and all the other dishonest pro-EU toadies on both sides of the divide. Deliberate foot-dragging is utterly deplorable.

    A clean break from the EU is highly workable and beneficial, yet the merchants of doom would string out our departure indefinitely if they could get away with it. It is down to us on the leave side not to let them.

    Tad Davison

    Cambridge

  14. Alan Jutson
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 7:13 am | Permalink

    Afraid your comments will be falling on deaf ears John, the Prime Minister in an interview with Mr Robinson shown on TV yesterday evening asks why is it all about her !

    Clearly she does not accept that it is all about her, because she is in charge of the so called fiasco of negotiations, is making the decisions, and is trying her best to push the Chequers Surrender document through at any cost.

    She still clearly believes the EU Politicians are her and our friends, and does not seem to realise that they are only buttering her up to gain more money and retain control over us.

    I sadly believe we now have a Prime Minister who is totally deluded, with a cabinet of similar ilk.

    • Stred
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 8:20 pm | Permalink

      Bonkers and worried.

    • Tad Davison
      Posted September 18, 2018 at 9:25 am | Permalink

      Absolutely agree Alan!

      If she and her team were footballers, they’d be booed off the pitch! And given some of the matches I have been to in the past, they’d probably be pelted with bottles and anything else disgruntled fans had to hand.

      May seems to think she’s doing well. I recall the writer and broadcaster, JB Priestly, once referred to the British establishment and said that ‘this nation’s biggest national vice is self-deception’. If ever there was a politician those words applied to, it is one Theresa May!

      She’s a dog in a manger. The Brexit baby needs care. She clearly can’t give that care because she isn’t of the right calibre, but she won’t give way and let other people do it either. How arrogant can a politician get!

      Tad

  15. Ian wragg
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 7:13 am | Permalink

    Once again Boris Johnson is 100% correct in todaysTelegraph.
    May is trying to annex us to Brussels in perpetuity.
    Gove and his stupid idea that any treaty could be changed at a later date is nonesense.
    What have we done to have these lying toads foisted upon us.
    I believe Corbyn would be preferable. I have never voted labour in my life.

    • Turboterrier.
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 6:54 pm | Permalink

      Ian wragg

      Gove and his stupid idea that any treaty could be changed at a later date is nonesense.

      The man has become a big disappointment and now an embarrassment every time he opens his mouth. He was only invited back into the cabinet to spike Boris and the other serious leavers. His one statement on electric cars has all but destroyed JLR and his so called green environmental ideas beg beliefs. Yet another one with his own secret agenda.

    • Fedupsoutherner
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 7:41 pm | Permalink

      Ian. Gove is sickening. His behaviour has been disgusting. Its all about him. If he hadn’t back stabbed Boris we might not have remained May at the helm. He is a dispicable little person.

    • hans christian ivers
      Posted September 18, 2018 at 7:05 am | Permalink

      Ian Wragg,

      Boris, was so incompetent as foreign secretary that nobody can take him seriously anymore

      • NickC
        Posted September 18, 2018 at 8:45 am | Permalink

        Hans, Are you Mr Nobody? You do realise we can see through your debating tricks, don’t you? Stating your opinion in the third person still makes it your opinion.

        • hans christian ivers
          Posted September 18, 2018 at 1:37 pm | Permalink

          NickC

          When it comes to Boris yes please do advertise my opinion

      • Original Richard
        Posted September 19, 2018 at 1:44 am | Permalink

        The hard core EU supporting Foreign Office civil servants underminded Mr. Johnson by feeding him false information.

        • hans christian ivers
          Posted September 19, 2018 at 2:35 pm | Permalink

          Original Ricahrd,

          You really believe that remark, he did most of him all by himself

  16. Woody
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 7:14 am | Permalink

    I find it amazing that this no deal spin is being thrown around by those who still wish to remain .. we have a deal already, signed sealed and legally binding internationally .. its WTO trade regulations.

    • acorn
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 4:16 pm | Permalink

      There are no such things as “signed sealed and legally binding internationally”, WTO trade regulations. The WTO is not a Court of Law; it has no powers to sanction a Sovereign State. If there is a trade dispute, it has to be settled by WTO members between themselves; it only acts as a sort of referee and can be ignored by the likes of President Trump.

      The bits that actually matter are the Mutual Recognition Agreements (MRA) between Sovereign States. Where an exporting State, may do things differently but they are recognised as “equivalent” to the requirements of the importing State. Which is how the EU trades with the US.

      • Woody
        Posted September 17, 2018 at 5:54 pm | Permalink

        “Few if any will question today that WTO agreements set out legally binding rules part of public international law (PIL). The WTO is not some economic bargain between governmental trade elites without normative value. It is a legally binding treaty squarely within the wider corpus of international law.” Google.

  17. Kevin
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 7:17 am | Permalink

    “if the Prime Minister says the choice has to be Chequers or just leaving…”

    Is the thinking on Chequers that, if we keep things as close as possible to the way they currently are, everything will stay on its current trajectory? If so, this assumes that that is a good thing.

    For example, in a report on the “substantial impact of the financial crisis”, BBC writes that, “people…aged between 30 and 39 now are earning £2,100 a year less than people of the same age group in 2008…a drop of 7.2%”. Our membership of the EU did not prevent this drop, so why is tying ourselves to the Union preferable to implementing the democratic decision to leave?
    (Source: “Workers are £800 a year poorer post-crisis”, BBC News Web site, September 12, 2018).

  18. Alan Jutson
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 7:18 am | Permalink

    I agree John.

    I sent a letter to the Chief Whip, and another to the Conservative Party Chairman explaining exactly the situation/position you outline more than a couple of weeks ago, before I went away on holiday.

    So far not even an acknowledgement by return, let alone a reply.

    Perhaps they are both away on holiday, or perhaps its been filed in the usual place.

    • Arthur Wrightiss
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 10:31 am | Permalink

      I too have written to my Conservative PM who hasn’t the common decency to reply.
      As he is ignoring me, come the next election I will ignore him.

  19. mickc
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 7:19 am | Permalink

    But will any Tory MPS have the spine to vote down the Chequers deal? Labour says it will vote against it. If the deal is voted down there will have to be a general election; no Tory MP will risk that because Corbyn will win against May who would not resign as leader.
    Best to dump her now while it’s still possible.

    Reply Many Conservative MPs will vote against both Chequers and any motion to have a General Election.

    • ian wragg
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 9:44 am | Permalink

      What about the Withdrawal Agreement. When does that get debated and voted on.
      That is far more important as it is a capitulation document.

    • Bob
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 1:32 pm | Permalink

      A commentator on Sky news said that Labour might abstain, thereby allowing the Tories to decide. The Tories are mostly Remainers, so there is every chance that they would support it, because Chequers is Remain by another name.

      Remember how the “EU Constitution” became the Lisbon Treaty, which is virtually the same thing in all but name.

    • NickC
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 3:44 pm | Permalink

      Repy to reply: Many Remain Labour MPs will vote for Chequers (Robbins), even if the current (it could change any minute) Labour policy is to oppose Chequers.

    • Steve
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 6:44 pm | Permalink

      JR :

      “Many Conservative MPs will vote against ….. any motion to have a General Election.”

      Why is that Mr Redwood ? Could it be that Conservative MP’s know full well it would be their lot ?

      I suspect the conservatives are actually terrified of a general election.

      The only way out of the crisis is for Theresa May to be replaced with a leader who’s ideology is consistent with the outcome of the referendum, while there is still time.

      Having a PM who’s ideology conflicts the will of the people was never going to work.

      Put bluntly; she has to go now and be replaced with a eurosceptic or it’s the end for the tories.

      The choice is simple; get rid now and perhaps survive, or don’t get rid and you all loose your jobs.

  20. George Brooks
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 7:24 am | Permalink

    You are absolutely right and aided and abetted by her faithful PR organisation, the BBC, the PM is clearly demonstrating her complete inexperience and incompetence in negotiating. She is sliding down the Cameron route in trying to sell us that Chequers is the only option.

    Absolute rubbish.

    It is nothing more than criminal because, as she has said on countless occasions, ‘we leave the EU on 29th March next year’ and if she gets her way it will be on the worst possible terms imaginable. Neither out nor in with the EU holding the whip hand.

    • mickc
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 12:15 pm | Permalink

      But if May loses the Chequers vote it will not be a matter for the House effectively. Public pressure will insist on a General Election….the House will have lost all authority if there isn’t one. It will only take one mass demonstration, which the police will not be able to control for chaos to ensue. I’m fairly certain such a demonstration could be organised….after all it takes a long time to organise a spontaneous demonstration!

    • NickC
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 3:49 pm | Permalink

      George Brooks, Please read the executive summary of the Chequers (Robbins) plan. It makes it quite clear that Mrs May intends to leave the existing multi-lateral EU treaties and immediately sign up to new bi-lateral treaties and existing agreements (Medicine, Aviation, etc) to almost the same effect.

  21. Richard1
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 7:25 am | Permalink

    We are offered a few other insights into the fatuousness of the current cabinet’s deliberations. Chris Grayling apparently wants a £200 per head gift and Andrea Leadsom wants to issue Brexit Bonds – how would these be any different from conventional gilts? Do these people think these sort of gimmicks will convince the population they are being well governed or are they really dim enough to think they are a good idea?

    • Eye
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 10:23 am | Permalink

      I like Andrea Leadsom and Chris Grayling.
      I heard Graying speak at length in a Parliament Transport Committee with biting questions most detailed. He wafted them away like non-sting hornets from a lovely picnic.

    • NickC
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 3:54 pm | Permalink

      Richard1, The Remain civil service is running rings round them. In Mrs May we have a PM who is probably more deceitful than Tony Blair – she has persistently lied to her own Ministers, and her own party, as well as to the country. The combination is killing Leave. I don’t suppose that Dr Redwood and most Brexit MPs have any illusions left.

      • Alison
        Posted September 18, 2018 at 8:20 am | Permalink

        Richard1, agree. it is critical we do not have any illusions about Mrs May. She is unscrupulous and seems to me unprincipled (except on one thing .. that is, never to say that she is in favour of Leave). I believe she is also now highly conniving.

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted September 18, 2018 at 1:38 pm | Permalink

        NickC

        That also makes lot of sense what May is proposing

  22. A.Sedgwick
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 7:32 am | Permalink

    Interesting to see if she keeps her nerve and sticks to this option and equally how many MPs have the bottle to go no deal.

  23. DUNCAN
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 7:33 am | Permalink

    Eurosceptics are being played like fools. May and Barnier’s playing you guys like a fiddle and treating our democracy with the contempt May thinks it deserves

    You either bring May down or Brexit is dead and our party is then doomed to the prospect of having this grotesque person as our leader for the foreseeable future. If that happens I for one will abstain at the next GE

    • Anyone
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 10:18 am | Permalink

      @DUNCAN
      Unfortunately, Time. It is within days or maybe a few weeks for Mrs May to do something.
      If she does not do something immediately, to do right, even if she comes late to the party, she will fail in the next General Election.

    • Roy Grainger
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 2:51 pm | Permalink

      You are right. Don’t forget the EU saw the Chequers proposal in advance and did not stop May proceeding with it, it is clearly the basis for whatever last minute deal they agree to.

    • NickC
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 3:55 pm | Permalink

      Duncan, I will vote UKIP, the only party you can trust to deliver Leave.

      • Fedupsoutherner
        Posted September 17, 2018 at 7:45 pm | Permalink

        Nick c. So will I. There is no point in voting for a party that has no intention of delivering the referendum result.

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted September 18, 2018 at 2:04 pm | Permalink

        NickC.

        high flying and low we fall for UKIP

  24. Bob Dixon
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 7:39 am | Permalink

    And its what I voted for. Just leave 29/03/2019

  25. Brian Tomkinson
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 7:53 am | Permalink

    The WTO arrangement has been besmirched by those determined to keep us in the EU including the PM. Mrs May remains the problem and she won’t change unless she is forced out.

  26. Helena
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 8:04 am | Permalink

    About 60 MPs want no deal. Close to 600 recognise no deal as a catastrophe, and will vote for whatever Mrs May puts on the table. Mrs May has skilfully and comprehensively outsmarted you.

    • Edward2
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 7:01 pm | Permalink

      First there are not that many MPs
      Second Lib Dems and SNP and Greens will not vote in favour.
      No one knows how Labour will decide to vote on this.
      It is all still very close.

    • NickC
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 9:05 pm | Permalink

      Helena said: “Close to 600 [MPs] recognise no deal as a catastrophe …”. Keep saying that and you might actually begin to believe it. The problem for you is the entire rest of the world is independent of the EU, most without a comprehensive trade deal (neither Canada nor Japan deals are operational currently). Independence is perfectly possible. As you well know, but dare not admit.

  27. Student
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 8:06 am | Permalink

    It’s a disgrace that May is still leading the country. The electorate is screaming out for leadership by a Brexiteer.

    The only way I can see Chequers getting through Parliament is if remain MPs vote for such a terrible deal on the (probably correct) belief that people will subsequently prefer to remain in the EU, which is despicable. I cannot see any Brexiteer MPs voting for Chequers, other than the sell-out careerists in the cabinet.

    This current generation of MPs are throwing the country to the dogs in the name of ideology and their own personal ambition. It is so disappointing.

  28. Tory in Cheshire
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 8:06 am | Permalink

    You have been telling us for some time that the ERG will put its own alternative detailed plan forward. Where is it?

  29. Sakara Gold
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 8:18 am | Permalink

    Carney recently presented to the cabinet his view of crashing out of the EU with no deal. I gather that he was listened to respectfully by the brexiteers and the remainers, took a few questions and then left the meeting. This after he was offered (and accepted) an extension to his tenure at the BoE, despite making a whole series of Brexit predictions which have proved wrong. He recently caused a collapse in the value of sterling by selling the pound to buy enormous quantities of Euro. Shortly afterwards, on a brief trip to Dublin, I was offered parity when exchanging money at an Irish bank. I’ve lost confidence in Carney and his silly predictions of a 35% crash in house prices etc; we need a change at the top of the BoE

    This is still a game of who blinks first between us and Barnier. I am personally loosing patience with our politicians, who seem more interested in playing politics with our future prosperity and trading relationships, many with a view to challenging the PM for leadership of the party. Fortunately May was astute enough to give Graham Brady a gong to keep him onside and prevent the dreadful Boris Johnson from becoming PM

  30. Nig l
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 8:23 am | Permalink

    Why is it only ‘many MPs’ what about the 17 million plus who voted to leave? Not including them just gives the impression their views are now not important.

    Something the Remainers are doing.

  31. GilesB
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 8:54 am | Permalink

    What do you think about CETA, the Canada deal. Even without plus plus, isn’t it better than WTO/no deal?

  32. fedupsoutherner
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 8:59 am | Permalink

    The majority of the population voted to leave. We don’t want to be fobbed off with Mrs May’s Chequers plan. That would mean staying. We are not interested in what Blair, Cable or Khan has to say about more referendums. Let’s please just get on with it.

  33. BOF
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 9:08 am | Permalink

    Monday morning on the BBC followed Sunday night with utter drivel on Irish border, peoples vote, a second referendum with players like Polly Toynbee and Nick Clegg taking leading roles. Not to mention a thoroughly disingenuous outpouring of rubbish from the Prime Minister in person.

    All designed to keep us tightly under the control of the EU.

    It is no exaggeration to say that democracy is in deadly danger as it seems to be as disposable to these people as an old pair of socks.

    • NickC
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 9:17 pm | Permalink

      BOF, The BBC is not worth listening to. I have found when I stopped even listening to BBC radio for a few weeks then try going back, the BBC was hideous. If you don’t stop then you get used to it and think it’s normal.

  34. Newmania
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 9:10 am | Permalink

    Why does WTO get us out of paying the money we owe ?

    • libertarian
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 8:23 pm | Permalink

      Newmania

      Er because we dont owe any money. The £39 billion is a bride for a deal, no deal no money

    • NickC
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 9:13 pm | Permalink

      Newmania, What money is that?

  35. Andy
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 9:19 am | Permalink

    I very much enjoy how much you all hate Chequers.

    Chequers IS Brexit.

    It is what Brexit has always meant. It is what you all voted for.

    We told you Brexit was rubbish. Turns out we were right.

    • libertarian
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 8:26 pm | Permalink

      Andy

      You were right were you?

      You said the City would leave….it didn’t

      You said we would lose 800,000 jobs , wrong we gained 1 million

      You said we couldn’t have a tech solution to Irish border – Wrong , the EU is proposing one

      You said we’d run out of cheese… well lets wait and see

      Andy- every prediction he’s made so far has turned out to be wrong

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted September 18, 2018 at 7:06 am | Permalink

        Libertarian,

        Just like your prediction on Angela Merkel, be careful what you write it comes back to haunt you

    • Edward2
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 8:55 pm | Permalink

      It seems the EU won’t agree to it.
      And its likely the House of Commons won’t vote in favour either.
      It isn’t what we voted for and I’ve asked all the 17.2 million people who voted leave.

    • NickC
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 9:12 pm | Permalink

      Andy, Chequers is NOT Brexit. Chequers ties us back to the EU with new bi-lateral treaties and existing agreements. Chequers is a revolving-door Remain. Brexit should get us to the position of being an independent country, as we were before 1972, as Japan and New Zealand are now. Chequers clearly doesn’t. We told you Remain was rubbish. Turns out we were right.

      • hans christian ivers
        Posted September 18, 2018 at 7:08 am | Permalink

        NIckC
        he world is an interdependent World today, the independence you are talking about is history

        • NickC
          Posted September 18, 2018 at 10:21 am | Permalink

          Hans, I thought you’d never ask! Oh . . . wait . . . you didn’t. The independence I am talking about is not history it is similar to New Zealand’s – as I said, but you obviously missed.

  36. Peter Cartwright
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 9:24 am | Permalink

    Someone (who?) said of Mrs. May that her two chief characteristics were indecision and stubbornness. These are clearly being demonstrated now. The risk of a Corbyn landslide grows by the day.

  37. Edwardm
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 9:32 am | Permalink

    Both in its dire content and in the way it was devised, the Chequers proposal that Mrs May has dumped on her government shows that she has many failings and is an utterly wrong person to be Prime Minister, to put it mildly.

    That there has not been an overwhelming movement by Conservative MPs to remove her, reflects badly on the Conservative party. Whether those MPs who meekly accept Chequers are illogical, indecisive or want to make Brexit fail, they shouldn’t be MPs.

    WTO is our best option with the arrogant EU until the EU loses its arrogance and is willing to accept a balanced free trade deal.

  38. agricola
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 9:35 am | Permalink

    There is newspaper speculation that a deal has been reached by Mrs may and the EU, but we are not allowed to know about it until November. If she has agreed a deal then we need to know about it in minute detail NOW. The delay to November suggests that there are aspects of it that the 17.4 million who voted leave will find difficult to stomach. Pressure the woman until we know.

    • Steve
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 10:26 pm | Permalink

      Agricola

      That is because Theresa May is of a very sneaky, deceitful and sly personality.

      You could be right in your suspicions of a sneaky behind our backs deal already having been done.

      If so, I agree it is truly shocking and considering the timings of special meetings with Merkel and Macron (former right before Chequers, latter while on holiday) you’d have to wonder on who’s payroll is May actually on ?

      Grounds to suspect treason, surely.

      If she has done a sly sell out, you can be assured of witnessing the conservative party having to disband at or even before the next general election as the British people will not stand for it.

      I actually think the despot could end her career by having to claim political asylum in some other country.

  39. miami.mode
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 9:55 am | Permalink

    It’s time to check out of Chequers.

    Michael Gove was waffling on about changing the terms after agreement is reached on Chequers, but this is to underestimate the way the EU works which will be to tie us in with some sort of treaty which will last for years.

  40. Crazytimes
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 10:16 am | Permalink

    The WTO option might be better than chequers but I can’ agree that it is clearly so- how do you know, how does anyone know until we try it?

    Again you’re having a dig at the 39billion as if we have a choice in the matter. The 39billion is part of the divorce settlement along with the Irish border and will be paid in full as part of the withdrawal or if not then with interest at some time in the future. And don’t give me the story please that we can trade anyway we like and with whom we like according to WTO rules..if governments want to stop trade on some items or any items they have it well within their power to stop or hinder trade..we are talking about trade war in the event of their being no divorce agreement

  41. Crazytimes
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 10:18 am | Permalink

    Ps from what I can see many MPs are blockheads

  42. Christine
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 10:22 am | Permalink

    Not even TM can think the Chequers proposal is a goer. She’s doing what all MPs have done in recent years. Put a really bad proposal on the table knowing it will be rejected then put a bad deal on the table which won’t seem as bad. This whole charade between TM and the EU has been orchestrated since the vote went against them. What neither side has banked on is the resolve of the British people. We are fed up with project fear, it just washes over us. Either give us what we voted for or resign and let someone else lead the country.

  43. libertarian
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 10:25 am | Permalink

    Andy/Newmania

    You both posted multiple times about the City moving wholesale to Frankfurt, Brussels and Paris and the loss of 100,000’s of jobs. Now it hasn’t happened I want you to explain why your forecasts were so disastrously wrong …. oh and here’s a clue to help

    Longtime Le Monde City correspondent Marc Roche says the City will do all right after #Brexit: “The lifting of the anchors will enable London to multiply its traditional assets that are time zones, the English language, common law & knowhow in financial engineering”

    • Andy
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 8:28 pm | Permalink

      Our forecasts are not wrong at all. City jobs are going. Banks are relocating staff. Some are moving thousands, some are moving hundreds, some are moving dozens. Some have already gone. Some are still to go.

      Many of these bankers who are moving are highly paid. And the thing about highly paid people is that they spend a lot of mone and they generate lots of economic activity.. And, now, instead of spending money in London – they spend money in Frankfurt or Paris or Amsterdam or Dublin instead.

      A banker friend of ours is moving to Paris early next year. His secretary is losing h r job. But he’s losing his cleaner at home, his children are being removed from their private schools, the gardener has already been let go. Well done. You voted for all that economic activity to be done in France.

      • Edward2
        Posted September 18, 2018 at 6:51 am | Permalink

        Yet unemplyment carries on falling.
        Lowest level for decades.
        What did you predict andy?
        Half a million more unemployed?

        • hans christian ivers
          Posted September 18, 2018 at 10:35 am | Permalink

          Edward2

          Andy went too far but lower unemployment has not increased our purchasing power I am afraid as inflation has gone upas well due to a falling pound. (Wonder Why?)

          • Edward2
            Posted September 18, 2018 at 12:39 pm | Permalink

            Wrong.
            Every person able to find paid employment gains a big improvement in their purchasing power.
            Overall wages are now rising faster than inflation.

      • NickC
        Posted September 18, 2018 at 10:27 am | Permalink

        Andy, People in jobs like that move all the time. A friend of ours moved from his highly paid position in the UK to the USA. Not because of Brexit, but because his employer wanted him there. You’re just afraid of change.

  44. VotedOut
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 10:25 am | Permalink

    There is a view that the PM is somewhat boxed in by treaty obligations. This leads to a perception of weakness. Normal negotiation tactics are perhaps not fully realizable.

    Chequers does not fit in with this view. Our PM has a record of going off piste on critical policy areas so it is possible that the Chequers proposal was a sincerely held view. Clearly, no such proposal will rest with the UK public, and if implemented will be a running sore making a long term settlement impossible.

    It is far better for the EU to admit their Irish border gambit will not work and settle for what the previous Taoiseach was happily working towards with the British. Such a Canada-plus2 deal would be much preferred. Although quite why the UK must hand over £40billion is a complete mystery and should the economic cycle end badly it could be a political millstone around the present administration in Whitehall. On balance it might be better for a WTO-Brexit… We shall see.

  45. Easy.
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 10:41 am | Permalink

    John Major, Blair and Clegg should tell us what they and Mrs Merkel have decided for us in their talks(!) .

    Perhaps they are having a quick crafty edit, together. Blocking the bits about “and Make Germany the Centre of Attraction and such a very good Country!”

  46. Shieldsman
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 10:46 am | Permalink

    Pro EU commentators here make wild uniformed statements, gathered from the doomsday media.
    Aviation
    Helena – Without a deal, no flights. That is the law. A deal will be done – but on the EU’s terms.
    Andy – We need to renegotiate hundreds of bilateral deals to enable our planes to fly. We probably will do this but the terms may not be as good. For example the Americans are already offering a worse deal than the one we have.

    Are either of these statements factual?
    The triggering of Article 50 is notification to the European Union that the United Kingdom will cease to be part of the European Common Aviation Area, in which the Commission negotiates bi-lateral Air Service Agreements on behalf of the member States. EU external aviation policy briefing May 2016, EPRS_ BRI(2016) 582021_EN applies. It states: –
    The 1944 Convention on International Civil Aviation (‘Chicago Convention’) is the chief regulatory framework for international civil aviation, but also the most important primary source of public international aviation law and the umbrella under which bilateral air service agreements have been developed.
    The Chicago Convention
    Signed in 1944, the Convention on International Civil Aviation (the ‘Chicago Convention’) is the most important primary source of public international aviation law.1 It is binding upon its 191 signatory states, which have pledged not to enter into any obligations or understandings that are inconsistent with the terms of the Convention.
    The Chicago Convention created the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), and entrusted it, in its Article 44, with the objectives of developing the principles and techniques of international air navigation, and fostering the planning and development of international air transport, so as notably to ‘insure the safe and orderly growth of international civil aviation throughout the world’, ‘meet the needs of the peoples of the world for safe, regular, efficient and economical air transport’, and ‘insure that the rights of contracting States are fully respected and that every contracting State has a fair opportunity to operate international airlines’.
    Article 1 of the Convention mentions that ‘The contracting States recognize that every State has complete and
    exclusive sovereignty over the airspace above its territory’, while Article 6 on scheduled air services states that, ‘No scheduled international air service may be operated over or into the territory of a contracting State, except with the special permission or other authorization of that State, and in accordance with the terms of such permission or authorization’.
    The United Kingdom has such sovereignty, and therefore on leaving the EU has exclusive rights to negotiate bi-lateral air service agreements under the Chicago Convention.
    Note: Bi-laterals operate on a quid pro quo basis, that is equal rights are agreed by the signatories.
    Can you visulise a situation whereby the airlines of the rest of the World, having bi-laterals with the UK, are continuing to fly into the United Kingdom whilst those of the EU member States are not.

    International Air Services Transit Agreement
    The first freedom is the right to fly over a foreign country without landing. It grants the privilege to fly over the territory of a treaty country without landing. Member states of the International Air Services Transit Agreement grant this freedom (as well as the second freedom) to other member states, subject to the transiting aircraft using designated air routes. As of the summer of 2007, 129 countries were parties to this treaty, including
    such large ones as the United States, India, and Australia. However, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, and China never joined, and Canada left the treaty in 1988.
    IASTA dates back to 1944/45 with the preamble: The States which sign and accept this International Air Services Transit Agreement, being members of the International Civil Aviation Organization, declare as follows: Each contracting State grants to the other contracting States the following freedoms of the air in respect of scheduled international air services:
    (1) The privilege to fly across its territory without landing;(2) The privilege to land for non-traffic purposes. Contracting States must have bilateral ICAO Air Service
    agreements one with another.

    Following on the reports of the Chancellor’s statement “It is theoretically conceivable in a no-deal scenario there will be no air traffic moving between the UK and EU after 29 March, 2019.” All I can say is Hammond was foolish and the Press are even bigger idiots for printing his nonsense. Saying it’s conceivable means he does not know. He would be well advised to consult with the Secretary of State for Transport before making
    such a rash statement.
    Is Hammond in his ignorance assuming that the Air Carriers of the World outside of the EU will not be overflying the ECAA and landing in the United Kingdom using their bi-lateral rights? The USA and other World Countries are certainly not going to allow the EU to deny them access to the UK’s Airports and Airspace.
    The negotiation of ICAO Air Service Agreements is quite separate from Trade negotiations (EEA, Single Market and Customs Union) not being subject to WTO rules. They may be negotiated separately long before we actually leave the EU and ECAA.
    Failure of the Commission to conclude a Bi-lateral Agreement works both ways. The EU member Airlines would not be able to fly into UK Airports or through its airspace, having abrogated their ICAO treaty with the UK.
    The following Airlines of EU member States need to fly through UK airspace to access the the North Atlantic track structure.
    Air Europa, Air France, Alitalia, Austrian Airlines, Brussels Airlines, Lufthansa, KLM, LOT, Norwegian, SAS, Swiss.

    EASA – The majority of its rule are carried out by the United Kingdoms Civil Aviation Authority as it was before the creation of EASA. The CAA can accept the rules into its own rule book and continue to administer them. Third Countries of which the UK will become one, have their own Civil Aviation Authorities formulating policy acceptable to ICAO. For aircraft certification many follow the FAA as they operate American aircraft, as does British Airways in large numbers.

  47. mancunius
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 11:09 am | Permalink

    And now we have the IMF trying it on with their fearmongering again, and the usual echo chamber of Hammond and the Remainers (sounds a bit like a sixties pop group).

    Last time we had a vote to put them back in their box. This trime round all we have is
    Parliament, God help us.

    • mancunius
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 11:13 am | Permalink

      trime time

  48. hellbent
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 11:18 am | Permalink

    You talk about several options for our departure but truth is there is only one realistic option which is the one that is being worked out now and will be agreed to by Mrs May during the week in Salzburg. Time is not on anyone’s side so the business has to be done. This is about business, it’s about expediency, it’s about getting a conclusion to this awful brexit mess. To help us the EU side is prepared to do cartwheels to get us across the line- Fox and Gove the onetime arch brexiteers are onside with Mrs May for this so onward and upward, we have to be practical and optimistic not looking for letterboxes or people who go whistle, all of that carcrash stuff is gone now, gone in a puff of smoke as we shall see at the Tory conference in a couple of weeks. So no need for a second referendum, no need for a GE, no need for WTO rules by ourselves because we can work WTO as part of the EU. So what will change- well recognition will be given to UK about the unhappiness of free movement of people and UK will be given some latitude to trade independently worldwide provided it doesn’t cross EU trade agreements. London will be the same for banking and insurance..and that’s it..all change but no change..there can be no other way out of this mess- only the fudge

  49. TomTomTom
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 12:21 pm | Permalink

    You could do a lot with £40B.

    Spend £1B a month, every month, for 3 and a bit years on improving infrastructure.

    Or build 160,000 council houses at a cost of £250k each.

    Or build a fleet of 10 aircraft carriers or substantially re-equip the army.

    Or give 4.5k to each and every one of the 8.5 million school-aged children to spend on extra-curricular activities, music lessons, science clubs and school trips.

  50. Tabulazero
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 12:41 pm | Permalink

    £39bn is peanut compared to the hit the UK economy would take.

    • Edward2
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 7:03 pm | Permalink

      Well we may as well keep it here then.

    • TomTomTom
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 9:13 pm | Permalink

      Well that’s your prediction. But it’s not a fact.

      I own and run a company, my sales are split 40% EU, 40% USA, 10% Australia, 10% UK. So on paper, I should be remain. But I’m not.

      I’ve been working through the “No-Deal” scenarios. It doesn’t look like it will make any material difference to my company whatsoever. Some very minor adjustments to VAT that’s all.

      Companies and people adjust very rapidly to changes in circumstances. The UK is a very dynamic economy.

      Sure there will be some negatives, but there will also be some positives. And the disruption of existing companies is great. Should open up some opportunities to exploit.

      For the EU though, losing its second biggest budget contributor and access the to worlds 5th/6th largest economy is only going to be negative. There is no upside to BREXIT for the EU.

      Don’t fear change.

      • Dennis Zoff
        Posted September 18, 2018 at 1:01 pm | Permalink

        TomTomTom

        Exactly. Nothing to fear but fear itself….Remainers are fearful of change, the question is why? They never eruditely answer this simple question.

  51. fedupsoutherner
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 12:45 pm | Permalink

    Ive just been listening to British people who are now living in Bulgaria moaning about their fate if the UK leaves the EU. Excuse me, you decided to leave the UK, your life is both cheaper and better, so you say, in Bulgaria. Why do these people think they can dictate to the rest of us living in the UK who want to leave? They opted for what they think is a better way of life so why don’t they get on with it? If their pension pots have decreased due to the pound falling that’s their problem not ours. The value of the pound goes up and down so get used to it. I don’t suppose we will hear them moaning when it goes up. They just have to get on with life and not expect citizens in the UK to do what suits them now they have abandoned their home land.

    More scaremongering on the BBC today talking about how the NHS won’t manage. When is it all going to end? It would appear that Mrs May is having her Thatcher moment in that she is insisting her Chequers agreement is the only way. If only she had Thatcher’s brains.

  52. Brian Tomkinson
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 12:56 pm | Permalink

    Philip Hammond has rejected leaving EU on WTO terms (what Remainers like him call ‘no deal’) therby undermining the government’s negotiating position and encouraging the EU to offer the worst possible terms. If this isn’t a sacking offence what is?

  53. Jiminyjim
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 1:00 pm | Permalink

    JR, in view of your recent comments, can you confirm whether the PM is able to link a vote of confidence to the Chequers vote, so that you no longer have the option of voting against Chequers but also against the calling of a General Election?
    And if she is able legally to link the two, how will you vote??

    Reply I will vote against Chequers and for confidence in the govt should a confidence vote follow. No, she cannot make the two the same.

  54. hefner
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 1:11 pm | Permalink

    Dr Fox and Mr Gove now appear on May’s side. JR-M would be happy with Canada+.
    Where does this leave the WTO option?

    reply Its the default option which we will get if Parliament cannot agree something else with the EU

  55. IAN WORSLEY
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 1:35 pm | Permalink

    I’ve read in the press that WTO’s Tariffs on imported food to the UK could be quite high. If they are high this could affect some people with little money to pay for these additional charges. I would be interested on your views, please John!

    reply We will set the tariffs! The Wto merely puts a lid on them. I have written about how we could have lower tariffs than the EU currently makes us impose.

  56. Drachma
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 3:04 pm | Permalink

    So who should I believe? JR, a tory backbench Mp, or christine legarde head of the IMF?

    Reply I was right over the ERM, right over the Credit Crunch, and right over the first winter post Brexit. When is the IMF and UK Treasury going to get something right? Not this time, clearly.

  57. NickC
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 3:25 pm | Permalink

    JR, There’s no choice about it. The people already chose the Leave outcome. We can only Leave by leaving the EU treaties – and not signing up to new ones. That means the WTO option is the ONLY option. All the government has to do is deliver it.

  58. Michael Staples
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 4:14 pm | Permalink

    Apparently it is reported that the EU is offering technological solutions to the Irish Border, just as Brexiteers had predicted. This now totally undermines the reason for Chequers, which was drawn up on the premise that there was an Irish problem to be solved. Most of us knew it was a fiction from the start. Surely May will now have the wit to negotiate a normal Canada Plus free trade deal?

  59. Andy
    Posted September 17, 2018 at 4:48 pm | Permalink

    I note that the IMF – whose growth predictions have been broadly right – says today any Brexit will make us poorer.

    Now, I think the economics are the least worst thing about Brexit. But then I would say that because I can afford it whatever the outcome.

    But it is time now for Brexiteers to be honest and admit the price of whatever it is they hope to achieve is a poorer country. This is no more in doubt than the existence of climate change. Oh, yes, that’s right. You don’t believe that either.

    • Comedy Writer
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 5:34 pm | Permalink

      @Andy
      “I note that the IMF – whose growth predictions have been broadly right ” Hahahahahahahajhahahahahhjajaajjjjaaajajajajajaj haaaaa” 🙂

      • Andy
        Posted September 17, 2018 at 8:31 pm | Permalink

        Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha indeed. The last laugh is, of course, on you – because it’s true. I reckon when Brexit makes you poorer you won’t be laughing. But I might be laughing at you.

        • Edward2
          Posted September 18, 2018 at 6:53 am | Permalink

          But it isn’t “true” andy.
          It is just another IMF prediction.
          And their previous predictions have not been accurate.
          Yet you still believe them.

    • Bad Advice
      Posted September 17, 2018 at 9:04 pm | Permalink

      @Andy
      I am not suggesting you will change your mind about your views. Or that you should or will.
      Time sometimes makes us Oldies holdfast to views based on history’s ever blurring images .
      I can tell you this.
      Slowly changing ones mind if strongly-felt little by little, bad rejected, more good accepted, is a happier journey through life. A sudden change, however, in a heavy belief strong-belief……well you don’t want to there more than 5mph. Believe me.

    • Original Richard
      Posted September 18, 2018 at 2:12 am | Permalink

      The UK breaking away from the stifling control of the anti-democratic, UK fleecing EU union and its “ever closer” Treaty of Rome will bring increased prosperity.

      Just as Henry V111’s break from Rome (Roman Catholicism) brought about Protestantism, and hence enlightenment, improved education, the industrial revolution, increasing democracy and long-term wealth.

      • hefner
        Posted September 19, 2018 at 7:21 am | Permalink

        Sorry but Luther and Calvin might have been a bit more relevant to Protestantism than a king who just wanted to chuck the Pope in order to be able to fulfill his sexual desires.

    • NickC
      Posted September 18, 2018 at 10:38 am | Permalink

      Andy, Giving up our freedom for merely the promise of wealth is extremely foolish. I promise you that if you give me control of your bank account and your financial decisions I will make you rich beyond the dreams of Christine Lagarde. And if you fancy that, I’ve a bridge I can sell you too.

  60. Lindsay McDougall
    Posted September 18, 2018 at 12:51 am | Permalink

    What is needed is the organisation of a filibuster to talk out any EU/UK Agreement to implement Chequers. The first step has to be to oppose each and every timetable motion proposed by the Government. That will need Corbyn’s co-operation but I think he will be up for it. Then the filibuster will be easier. Chequers is hated by Brexiteers for obvious reasons and by Remainers such as Justine Greening and Lord Mandelson because it is neither fish nor fowl. There are the makings of an Unholy Alliance against Chequers.

    There is a precedent. In 1969, Wilson and Heath cobbled together proposals that would enable the Executive (the two front benches) to fill the Lords with placemen. They were unpopular with the House and Enoch Powell and Michael Foot were able to thwart a timetable motion. This enabled the proposals to be talked out. Wilson finally had to give way and gabbled his way through his concession speech. “Eat them more slowly” bellowed Enoch across the floor of the House. Heath said “We have just been defeated by a man who wants to abolish the House of Lords and a man who wants to return it to the way it was in the fourteenth century.” Right on, Ted. That really was an Unholy Alliance.

  61. Stop Fake Idiots
    Posted September 18, 2018 at 11:01 am | Permalink

    The WTO option is clearly better than Chequers

    >
    The idea is to make Brexit a disaster so we all come back begging for more EU.

  • About John Redwood


    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, and graduated from Magdalen College Oxford. He is a Distinguished fellow of All Souls, Oxford. A businessman by background, he has set up an investment management business, was both executive and non executive chairman of a quoted industrial PLC, and chaired a manufacturing company with factories in Birmingham, Chicago, India and China. He is the MP for Wokingham, first elected in 1987.

  • John’s Books

  • Email Alerts

    You can sign up to receive John's blog posts by e-mail by entering your e-mail address in the box below.

    Enter your email address:

    Delivered by FeedBurner

    The e-mail service is powered by Google's FeedBurner service. Your information is not shared.

  • Map of Visitors

    Locations of visitors to this page