It’s not just in time for the customer

For the last forty years I have bought UK manufactured cars, ordering a new one to replace an older vehicle at regular intervals. I have always found plenty of choice and usually liked the products I have bought.

I do, however, find the UK based industry’s continued arguments about Just in time bizarre. As I have pointed out, the government has no plans to create additional delays at ports for imported components. There is an even more curious thing about the industry’s belief in Just in time. It does not extend to the customer.

In April I contacted my local car showroom to ask when I needed to place an order for a new replacement car for September delivery. The last time it had taken six months. They told me I was too early so I asked them to contact me when they needed the order. On June 1 st I was invited in to sign up and pay the deposit. The deposit was taken in good time to help their cash flow, well before they committed any cash to the build. I was then told that the car would not be available until November, as they has misjudged their future production schedules. In July I was advised that the car would be available in the second half of October, and in early September I was advised it would be available mid October.

One of the advantages of Just in Time systems is the factory should be able to plan its output well in advance and plan exactly when it will build any individual car, yet I have experienced variation over more than a month of time in their forecast of build date.

All this reminds us that the absolute precision some now expect in Just in Time supply chains is not a reality within the single market. Just in Time is miles off extending to customers, and factories flex their production with delays of a month or more for the customer. The customer has to pay a deposit well in advance, and is left wondering exactly when they will get delivery of the new vehicle. I am not suggesting this is some hardship for the customer, merely pointing out that people are exaggerating massively the timeliness of current production of vehicles within the EU single market. The fact that a component may spend a few more hours in a traffic jam on the A34 is clearly not mission critical when the customer has been told to wait another month. And that is something they have to deal with whilst we are still in the EU. Some components today come in from outside the EU and come on a long sea journey, but planning still allows them to fit into a JIT system. All JIT systems have to hold buffer stocks for contingencies or “events”. A current EU/UK supply chain damaged by French strike action at the ports for example, may have to turn to the expensive Plan B of flying components in.

So here are a few questions for the Just in Time worriers

1. Why cant Just in Time systems deliver cars at a specified date for a customer that is quite soon after order placement?
2. How do you currently cope with traffic jams, lorry delays, port hold ups today, and why do you think it will be any worse after we have left?
3. What new barriers to entry are you expecting at Dover or Southampton, given the government has not proposed any?
4. Don’t you have to allow plenty of time for the difficulties of road or sea transport today on complex supply chains?
5. How do all those Chinese goods get into the UK in good time to meet UK customer orders, given that China is not a member of the EU?
6. Why is the UK car industry having difficulty meeting customer orders in a timely way whilst we are still in the EU and when UK car demand has been hit by UK government tax policy?

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136 Comments

  1. Fedupsoutherner
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 5:42 am | Permalink

    Like you John we ordered our car back in May for delivery in September. We were given a date of 23rd September for delivery and actually picked the car up on the 28th. The car was physically available on the due date given but the garage was so busy with deliveries and doing the PDI checks that we put it off to give them time. If orders are taken well in advance there should be no need to run out of stock. Manufacturers just have to ensure stock is in the warehouse for use when needed.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 9:38 am | Permalink

      Airports similarly know how many passengers are arriving well in advance (and thus the staffing levels they should have) and yet they still often have queues for several hours due to border agency mismanagement. Hardly a pleasant welcome to people after a long (or indeed a short) flight.

    • NickC
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 12:07 pm | Permalink

      Fedupsoutherner, Modern mass production is not based on stock in warehouses. Quoted from ReliablePlant: “assembly line manufacturers historically pushed mass production ahead based on estimates [planning] of future demand … Modern companies can’t afford this … so they wait for actual demand to pull production forward – manufacturing products when they’ve been requested by customers, or when the previous batch of products has sold out.”

      Modern “Pull” methods are very flexible and can cope with significant model variability to suit customer demand, something that cannot happen economically with the original “Push”, or planned, production methods. Nevertheless total production quantities are limited by factory capacity. So when everyone wants their new car in September, the manufacturers have a capacity problem. That is not a problem with Pull, Lean, JIT, TPM, QRM or JIS.

  2. Alan Jutson
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 6:03 am | Permalink

    My simple guess is that because cars have so many models of the one type, which also have many variable optional extra’s, they actually store up orders of similar specifications and put them through on batch production schedules, because it is more sensible and efficient to do it that way.

    At least that used to be the case very many decades ago when I was associated with the Motor manufacturing industry, computer controlled delivery of goods direct to the line was then introduced and was supposed to get over this sort of production, but must still be confusing sometimes to those actually working on the line.
    Car production whilst improved with robots and the like is still not totally automatic and involves the use of human labour.

    • Arthur Wrightiss
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 12:13 pm | Permalink

      This is really not the case. I recently toured the Toyota factory at Burnaston and the production process is highly automated with JIT deliveries to the line integral to keeping the line moving. A wide variety of cars with different specifications follow one another along the same line with all the correct components arriving in strict order to built each vehicle. Nothing at all like the car plants of the past.
      I recently also had a tour of the Bentley factory…that is completely different, but then you pays your money…

      • Edward2
        Posted October 1, 2018 at 3:30 pm | Permalink

        Toyota hold little stock.
        But their suppliers do.
        Some rent space inside their premises where JIT stock is held.

  3. Posted September 30, 2018 at 6:08 am | Permalink

    Mr Redwood, I drive a Suzuki. My next door neighbour drives a Volvo whose brakes are made, I think, in Korea. This is a world operation and bits come from all over the place, including the EU which will be shut.
    Just in time also works for Tesco.
    Try holding fish up from Iceland or Norway for a couple of days at Calais or Rotterdam. Try holding Valencian oranges up for three days while the computer says “no”.
    And then there is meat from Ireland.

    30/3/19: shut down.
    And it is all in the Advice to Stakeholders.

    PS delete this if you like: it is going to happen unless we agree to stay in the EEA by joining Efta.

    Reply You contradict yourself. This is a global market and the non EU bit works fine

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 8:38 am | Permalink

      For God’s sake, do we have to put up with this endless ignorance and stupidity?

      We could not unilaterally “agree to stay in the EEA”, Mike; that would not be our decision alone, rather it would require the consent all the other parties to the EEA Agreement including the three participating EFTA states, the EU itself, and each of the other EU member states AND MOST IMPORTANTLY IRELAND.

      Only yesterday I once again explained here:

      http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/09/29/will-the-government-confirm-it-is-not-planning-new-barriers-at-the-ports-to-delay-components-coming-in/#comment-963809

      that to protect its economic interests the strategic objective of the Irish government is to force the UK to stay under the rules of both the EU Single Market AND the EU Customs Union; as one of the selling points of the proposed EFTA/EEA route is that it would free the UK from any involvement with any customs union with the EU – like Norway – then you could expect Ireland to veto it.

    • Stephen Priest
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 11:13 am | Permalink

      “Try holding fish up from Iceland or Norway for a couple of days at Calais”

      I’m pretty sure the fish will slip throught the net.

    • libertarian
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 11:28 am | Permalink

      Mike Stallard

      What are you on about?

      Cars

      Neither Suzuki or Volvo cars are manufactured in the UK

      Yes cars are a global operation, yes they come from all over the world

      Mike

      Have a think? What happens to perishable goods when the French port workers go on strike every year as they have done for the last 20 years at least all while full members of the EU?

      You really do need to stock pile tin foil though

    • NickC
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 12:21 pm | Permalink

      Mike Stallard, Denis Cooper is perfectly correct. The EEA was offered to the EFTA nations as a means of enticing them into the EU. That is not the case with the UK since we are (supposedly) leaving the EU (well, we voted for that but we will not get it of course). Even Theresa May would blush at pretending that being in the EEA amounts to Leave.

      However, you have nothing to worry about. We will get Chequers, or a variation of it. And Chequers amounts to the EEA plus a customs union, all under the CJEU; with added military, security and diplomatic subjugation to the EU too. This is, of course, Remain. And when the UK is prevented from acting independently of the EU 5 years down the line, what is the Tory party going to do? If it still exists by then.

    • Stred
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 4:35 pm | Permalink

      I was told that Tesco has it’s own fish buying centre in a British port and doesn’t even have to buy from Billingsgate. Lotties with refrigerated containes are held up when there is bad weather and strikes but manage to keep cool.

    • a-tracy
      Posted October 1, 2018 at 8:46 am | Permalink

      Does fish from Iceland and Norway come all the way through France to get to the UK?

      Are you just anticipating problems with France and Mr Macron Mike or with all of the export ports in the EU in retaliation?

  4. Steve
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 6:09 am | Permalink

    JR

    “I do, however, find the UK based industry’s continued arguments about Just in time bizarre.”

    They’ve got the jitters.

  5. Lifelogic
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 6:16 am | Permalink

    This is all driven as we know by project fear and the forces for remain, orchestrated by May and Hammond’s appalling tax, borrow, regulate, waste and Brexit in name only government and their civil servants.

    For the last forty years I on the other hand have bought fairly cheap second hand cars (largely Audi, Volvo, BMW and VW) and largely run them to death, until they were valueless and no longer worth repairing. I then invested the rather large amounts of money that I saved fairly well. I think I am probably about £2 million better of as a result. I also saved myself all the hassle of buying, selling, registering, taxing, changing insurance, finding my way round the new car features and had much cheaper insurance too. Also in many ways the older cars seem rather better, more reliable, cheaper to fix and more robust than the flimsy, light new ones with their small over driven engines and over complexity (and often not even a spare tyre). Like the ones I rent sometimes.

    I particularly dislike the way the roof tapers in so you bang you head on the roof.

    When I buy something for £30K + I usually do so only if I expect it that it to go up in value not down (or pay back in some other direct way). Not to be worth just 30% after three years.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 6:19 am | Permalink

      Steve Baker is surely right on the dire CBI today in the Telegraph.

      https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/09/29/business-needs-alternative-timid-relentlessly-wrong-cbi/

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted October 1, 2018 at 11:44 am | Permalink

        The Guardian’s Polly Toynbee was on TV praising the CBI and expressing horror and disgust that Steve Baker should have dared to criticise them. For her kind anything goes when it comes to the defence of the EU; suddenly big business is no longer wicked, it is on the side of the angels.

    • Bob
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 8:05 am | Permalink

      @lifelogic

      “”

      Agree with with every word of that. Some modern cars are not worth keeping beyond the warranty period when the electronic gizmos play up and the plasticky engine part start disintegrating. I notice that even the big Volvo SUVs are now powered by 2 litre engines on steroids.

      It may get to the point where there is no second hand market and cars are sent straight to the crusher when the warranty expires due to the unrealistic cost of spares. I guess that’s why “personal contract purchase” has become so common.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted September 30, 2018 at 9:43 am | Permalink

        Indeed build in redundancy due to the absurd costs of spare parts. A bit like the HP printer model with ink priced like it was liquid gold.

    • Prigger
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 3:10 pm | Permalink

      @lifelogic
      “This is all driven as we know by Project fear”
      Odd that in essence, it was the Labour Party which has a Project Fear ramming down its electorate for 100 years. It kept them in a place they could have risen above.. Now it doesn’t work,suddenly. They are in panic of course.
      But the word is out.Only a few have risen above as it were. More to follow.No Fear. Word of mouth, Remoanarism is beaten before a complete barrage. Easy! Apart from teenage Little Twitters not old enough to vote for three years or so.

  6. Adam
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 6:21 am | Permalink

    If a product is not in time for the customer its other parts are not worth making.

  7. Ian wragg
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 6:30 am | Permalink

    I too buy UK built cars and was surprised how many components come from Japan and Thailand. Last time I looked they weren’t in the EU.
    As for your last point, they prefer to keep us waiting rather than have excess stock.
    German cars are failing Euro 6 emission tests.

  8. Peter Wood
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 6:32 am | Permalink

    Good Morning Dr. Redwood,

    Thank you for your posts when this must be a very busy time.

    While we are all very concerned about trade, can you also not forget the main reason most voted Leave; that of sovereignty. There are many voices saying we should stay in the EU as we are; this notion needs to be quashed. We would not be allowed to keep our present arrangements, and the EU has already moved on with its plans for political integration. Should we decide to stay or rejoin, we would have to accept far greater integration and governance from the EU (being first formulated in Berlin). There is NO option to remain are we are.
    Best of luck at Conference, either Chequers must go, or the PM goes as well.

    • eeyore
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 7:49 am | Permalink

      In the spirit of today’s post, I think we’ll get the right leader and government Just In Time.

      • NickC
        Posted September 30, 2018 at 12:26 pm | Permalink

        Eeyore, I sincerely hope you are right. For I think unless Mrs May is toppled we will get Chequers. And the longer the Conservative MPs wait the more difficult it will get to bin Chequers.

      • Adam
        Posted September 30, 2018 at 2:56 pm | Permalink

        He could be held up at the fringe of the Conference on his many supporters’ shoulders.

    • Steve
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 8:32 am | Permalink

      Peter Wood

      I agree, though it has occurred to me that if Theresa May remains PM, her insistence on Chequers could force a hard brexit, since the EU won’t accept it and we ARE leaving on 29th March.

      I share your opinion of the EU and it’s plans for further integration. They will continue this agenda and won’t be satisfied until the whole lot implodes or they provoke Russia a step too far.

      I wonder how many people realise Angela Merkel is from the former East Germany ( with its difficult history ed)

      Having anything to do with the EU and it’s expansionist dark agenda is dangerous, in my opinion.

    • Chris
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 12:47 pm | Permalink

      The Telegraph on Cons Party Conference Day One reports

      ‘ Theresa May refuses to rule out Chequers compromise as she tells critics ‘I do believe in Brexit’.

      https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/09/30/conservative-party-conference-day-one-live-theresa-may-boris/

      Mr Redwood, and Tory Brexiter MPs who have the integrity to uphold democracy, please act and swiftly. She has utterly betrayed us all along the way. She cannot be allowed to finalise the treachery. Please do not wait till next spring. It will be far too late.

    • Posted September 30, 2018 at 4:10 pm | Permalink

      You’re right, Peter. The principle of sovereignty seems to have been deliberately obfuscated by the squabbles about trade.
      ”They” are trying to blind us with smoke and mirrors, as if trade is the be all and end all of Brexit, when in fact it is SO much more. How many people voted ‘out’ with trade in mind?

  9. Lifelogic
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 6:43 am | Permalink

    Also spot on today in the Telegraph is Tim Montgomerie (and indeed Dan Hannan and the letters page). Theresa May & Hammond really must go asap.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/09/29/times-mrs-may-prime-minister-real-source-tory-partys-woes/

    After the relentless tax & regulation increases from May, Hammond, (and Cameron and Osborne) and her attempted Brexit betrayal they cannot reinvent themselves in the mode:=- “May: we will slash taxes to the lowest in the G20” as they pathetically tried to this week. She is just wrong on every issue she touches, deceitful and a massive robotic electoral liability too. She will give us Corbyn and Venezuela if allowed to remain.

    • Bob
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 8:10 am | Permalink

      @lifelogic

      After Mrs May’s 2017 snap election fiasco she apologised for her incompetence and pledged to continue as leader for “as long as you want me to”.

      Bye Felicia!

      • Lifelogic
        Posted September 30, 2018 at 9:51 am | Permalink

        I have yet to meet anyone who wants her. The best that can be said is she is better than Corbyn but not by very much (very similar to him in fact with her government knows best interventionism, her climate alarmism and her tax and regulate to death agenda.

        Listening to her know on Marr and how very depressing and visionless she is. Marr is totally wet and useless too. Doubtless why May agrees to being interviewed by him rather than say Andrew Neil.

    • Richard1
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 9:51 am | Permalink

      0.1% GDP growth in Q1 18 according to the ONS, and 1.2% LTM in line with Italy and below the rest of the developed world. No wonder Corbyn and McDonnell can sense victory. Let’s stop pretending this has nothing to do with Brexit uncertainty – though I think the threat of venezuela on sea is much much more of a factor. The Tories need to settle Brexit by some sensible means, and get on with radical pro growth policies. May and Hammond need to go neither of them seem to have the remotest idea of what to do.

  10. Mark B
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 7:27 am | Permalink

    Good morning.

    JIT is solely for industry benefit. JIT may in some small way help bring down costs but this I’d doubt would be much, particularly for low volume cars / products. JIT reduces the size of the parts bin and the needs to provide valuable storage space. It also means that a manufacturer does not have to buy large items and so helps to keep their cash flow light and bank balance healthy.

    JIT is reliant on markets that are working flawlessly. Problems can cause serious disruption but one wonders how the likes of the Koreans, Japanese, Americans and many, many others cope ? It seems that the more Remainers make the case (sic) for Soft-Remain the more the highlight what a basket case the EU and the Continent of Europe is. If the EU and Europe were such great friends and good trading partners, as the Remainers are keen to point out, then why do they then say leaving the EU would cause problems ? Surely if these are good well intentioned friends and allies they would not seek to disrupt trade.

    Leaving the EU is a political decision and not one solely based on trade. It is the desire of the people of this country to have those they elect for and on their behalf to act as such and not sub-contract out their responsibilities to us. We have allowed the EU to negotiate trade deals, treaties and agreements, it is this form of control that I want taken back and I ant the UK to be a fully free and independent country, as we once were, in all respects. To me, longterm, the future of the UK outside the EU looks great. I just wish others can also see it.

    • Billy Elliot
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 11:12 am | Permalink

      ” Surely if these are good well intentioned friends and allies they would not seek to disrupt trade.” Well EU – they – have their red lines too. CU and single market are unique and their best creation to be successful in global competition.
      Of course your argument could be turned 180 degrees as well: if UK is such a good friend and ally why is it in this process of disrupting trade ?

      But on the other hand countries don’t have friends – they have just interests. H Kissinger

      • NickC
        Posted October 1, 2018 at 10:28 am | Permalink

        Billy Elliot, By definition the EU’s internal customs union and single market can have nothing to do with “successful global competition”. The EU must use the WTO for that.

        The UK is not “disrupting trade” – we are leaving a political union. And we are doing so because the EU has shown itself over the last 46 years not to be our “friend and ally”. To put it mildly.

    • libertarian
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 11:30 am | Permalink

      Mark B

      Good post, spot on

    • NickC
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 12:31 pm | Permalink

      Mark B said: “It is the desire of the people of this country to have those they elect for and on their behalf to act as such and not sub-contract out their responsibilities …”. Completely correct.

  11. oldtimer
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 7:28 am | Permalink

    When they talk of just in time they are referring exclusively to the convenience of their own production schedules not to the sanctity of delivery dates quoted to customers. There are obvious reasons for this. Car manufacturing depends on the timely convergence of many hundreds of components to support a build rate of about one vehicle per minute. It is common for manufacturers to offer consumers a wide choice of specifications and options so they may personalise their choice. Thus each car built on the assembly line will be unique to the customer who ordered it. Then the manufacturer has to factor in product changes, either of its own choosing or mandated by legislation – such as the current changes to fuel economy and emission regulations. That said they should do better even allowing for congestion caused twice a year by changes in number plates.

  12. Andy
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 7:35 am | Permalink

    As a leading proponent of Brexit I am sure if you gave the CEO’s of BMW, Toyota, JLR a call they would gladly show you around their factories and explain how their processes work. They would let you follow the process of just in time – you could see how it all works. Have you done this? Has any Brexiteer? I know Mr Rees-Mogg has been invited to the frictionless Swiss border to see the frictions there. He hasn’t been of course. He’s probably too busy either doing TV interviews complaining about Brexit or moving his clients investments to Dublin where they will be safer.

    Reply Yes, I have been round a just in time factory, and been responsible for the running of such factories! I know exactly how they run, and point out that there are many delays to parts they have to manage, and pointing out the companies complaining do not get anywhere near extending JIT to customers!

    • Richard1
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 9:55 am | Permalink

      I have crossed the Swiss border many times in many places. It is untrue there are frictions. On many crossings there is no infrastructure and there are no personnel at all. Furthermore, such frictions for goods crossing as they are are being automated, as indeed they are all over the world, starting in East Asia.

      • Andy
        Posted September 30, 2018 at 6:42 pm | Permalink

        Switzerland is in Schengen so its border is basically friction free for people. But it is not friction free for goods. You can shout as loudly as you like to the contrary and you will still be wrong. Lorries and other goods vehicles are checked at the border. Now, as borders go the Swiss border is fairly painless. As, indeed is the Sweden / Norway border. But neither are friction free – but require paperwork and delay. If you replicate either at Dover and / or Calais then the reality is that you add bureaucracy and delay to the import / export process and that will make our goods more expensive.

        • Edward2
          Posted September 30, 2018 at 9:31 pm | Permalink

          You remainers are obsessed with Dover and Calais.
          Its just one of approx 20 UK ports and not one of biggest ones either.

        • Richard1
          Posted September 30, 2018 at 10:03 pm | Permalink

          I am not shouting about anything (unlike you I fear…). It has been repeatedly made clear that no checks and controls which are not now in place at Dover are needed, and France will have to decide whether they wish, gratuitously, to introduce trade frictions where none are needed, a policy which is unlikely to survive long given the cost and inconvenience it will cause in France, and the competitive threat such a policy will pose to them.

        • libertarian
          Posted October 1, 2018 at 10:37 am | Permalink

          Andy

          You look more stupid by the day. I’ve told you to google TIR , if you did you would know you are WRONG about border checks on goods in transit

          Here is the opening paragraph

          The TIR Convention establishes an international customs transit system with maximum facility to move goods:

          in sealed vehicles or containers;
          from a customs office of departure in one country to a customs office of destination in another country;
          without requiring extensive and time-consuming border checks at intermediate borders;
          while, at the same time, providing customs authorities with the required security and guarantees.

          WITHOUT REQUIRING BORDER CHECKS

          52 countries plus the EU are signed up to this agreement

          • Peter D Gardner
            Posted October 2, 2018 at 9:01 am | Permalink

            Cripes! You expect Remainers to read an international agreement? Come on!

    • Roy Grainger
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 10:35 am | Permalink

      Andy fails to mention any private sector experience he has of manufacturing and I can guess the reason for that. Parroting “Supply Chain” is just the latest ploy by Remainers to appear cleverer than they are.

      I worked for a while in UK manufacturing incidentally, most of our imported materials cane from outside the EU under WTO terms and that worked fine.

    • libertarian
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 11:38 am | Permalink

      Andy

      I called a business acquaintance of mine who is a senior project manager at a well know “foreign” car maker in the UK. I asked about his bosses media outpourings

      When he finished laughing , this is what he said. The senior management of this firm hasn’t got a clue about making cars. We are busy increasing our sourcing of components from UK based manufacturers, we aim to go from 25% to 40% sourced locally. We are doing this just in case EU suppliers ( we dont have a problem with none EU components) get funny after Brexit .

      As a Brexiteer I export on a small scale and use JIT, so tell us Andy whats your knowledge of this, what happened when you visited the Nissan factory ? In fact how come you dont even know what a Just In Time system is, or indeed what a “frictionless” border might be ?

    • John Finn
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 12:22 pm | Permalink

      As a leading proponent of Brexit I am sure if you gave the CEO’s of BMW, Toyota, JLR a call they would gladly show you around their factories and explain how their processes work

      Perhaps the CEOs of BMW, Toyota and JLR should explain why they feel their processes won’t continue to work after Brexit. As John Redwood makes clear, there is no need nor any plans by government to create delays or barriers at UK ports.

      Do you not understand this point?

      • Andy
        Posted September 30, 2018 at 6:45 pm | Permalink

        They have explained – repeatedly. But you are Brexiteers. You do not listen and you always know best.

    • NickC
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 12:40 pm | Permalink

      Andy, As a Leave voter I can assure you I know about JIT. And Pull, Lean, TPM, QRM and JIS. Do you? As for investing abroad, at least 20 million working Brits (out of 31 million) do so via their pension funds. Also, you seem not to have noticed that German car makers must convert their rh drive cars to lh drive to suit the UK within the EU’s single market. The EU’s SM is not frictionless.

      • Peter D Gardner
        Posted October 2, 2018 at 8:57 am | Permalink

        I have emigrated to Australia where cars are rh drive. I was unaware UK had switched to lh drive and the rest of the EU to rh drive.

    • Posted September 30, 2018 at 4:12 pm | Permalink

      Not very good English there, Andy. ”As a leading proponent of Brexit, I…..” No – you’re not a leading proponent of Brexit.

  13. Former Tory voter
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 7:38 am | Permalink

    Your ignorance is astounding. It is not Dover or Southampton that are the problems. It is Calais and Rotterdam that are the problems. Inside the EU, we exporters know for sure that there will be no need to stop for checks at Calais and Rotterdam. Outside the EU, there will be checks, and they will be slow and costly. That is the result of your Brexit -we become a third country. How does China deal with it? By paying tariffs, by submitting to border checks, by filling out masses of paperwork. Of course it can be done, but it costs a lot of money and it wastes a lot of time. Our exporters will lose their competitive edge – we certainly cannot compete with China on labour costs. Brexit will destroy vast amounts of British export trade – Brexit takes away all the advantages we have as a member of a frictionless single market

    Reply I am talking about imports, as are Remain, who wrongly tell u8s we wont get our components, food and medicine from EU exporters! As to exports, read the Next analysis which points out the Intrasat requirements for filings for exporters within the EU are more or less identical with customs requirements for non EU!

    • Former Tory voter
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 9:35 am | Permalink

      I know all about Intrasat requirements. That’s a side issue. You seem ignorant of tariffs, safety checks, phytosantiary inspections, Border Inspection posts, and the whole gamut of technical standards and conformity checks. All solved inside the EU. All massive headaches outside the EU. The Tory party used to be the party of business, zealots like you have destroyed it for a generation or more. I wish Mrs May godspeed in her attempts to produce a rational Brexit that looks after business, not far right nationalists

      Reply All solved for the majority of our imports which come from outside the EU!

      • Mark B
        Posted September 30, 2018 at 6:15 pm | Permalink

        BREXIT is not about trade, it is about returning to being a sovereign country once more.

        The EU protectionist model is failing. Look at what has happened with regrds to President Trump. He stated that he wanted fair trade not just free trade and cited the EU as anti fair trade. He threatens tariffs and Junker immediately jumps on a plane. That is how you deal with the EU.

      • Richard1
        Posted September 30, 2018 at 10:05 pm | Permalink

        How on Earth do companies which have supply chains from outside the EU manage? Dyson for example?

        • Peter D Gardner
          Posted October 2, 2018 at 8:54 am | Permalink

          Manufacture in Malaysia – moved there assisted by an EU grant!

    • libertarian
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 11:42 am | Permalink

      Former Tory Voter

      Your claiming to be an exporter right? I just want to be sure about that.

      You are claiming that there will be big issues caused by stopping at a border to be checked right?

      You’ve never heard of TIR , the CHIEF system and CDS and Intrasat then?

      I just want to check again you claim you’re an exporter , is this true?

  14. Anonymous
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 8:05 am | Permalink

    May I break with the local tradition and THANK Dr Redwood for moderating my comment ?

    I lost my temper the other day and shouldn’t have written it. Sorry and thank you Dr Redwood.

    • Richard1
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 9:59 am | Permalink

      It’s easily done, people do seem to get much angrier when at the keyboard than they would in personal contact.

      • Peter D Gardner
        Posted October 2, 2018 at 8:51 am | Permalink

        it’s what steering wheels and keyboards have in common.

  15. fedupsoutherner
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 8:21 am | Permalink

    Off topic but very apt this week. Why not give this list from UKIP’s manifesto to Mrs May? There are some very good policies here which resemble a Tory party from long ago.

    •Full Brexit
    •Abolish the licence fee
    •Slash immigration
    •National Health Service, not an International Health Service
    •Train our own doctors and nurses
    •Tackle literalist Islam
    •Housing for our people first
    •Defend free speech
    •Abolish ATOS
    •End PC culture
    •Waive university fees for STEMM subjects
    •Abolish foreign aid
    •House homeless veterans
    •No more aimless wars
    •Ban non-stun animal slaughter

    I trust Mrs May’s Chequers agreement will be consigned to the bin this week.

    • Anonymous
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 8:41 am | Permalink

      Also recognise the total futility (and danger) of closing our power stations while China is building them in their thousands.

      • forthurst
        Posted September 30, 2018 at 1:55 pm | Permalink

        fedupsoutherner has missed the repeal of the savetheplanet act, the removal of subsidies for savetheplanetbywreckingthecountryside installations, the end to the coal embargo and the removal of VAT on domestic fuel.

        • Posted September 30, 2018 at 4:15 pm | Permalink

          And STOP HS2.

        • Fedupsoutherner
          Posted September 30, 2018 at 6:48 pm | Permalink

          Ukip are against wind turbines and paying subsidies for renewables. They were the only party to publicly come out against it all. I should know. I was on a live panel with Farage in Edinburgh 5 years ago.

    • Caterpillar
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 10:12 am | Permalink

      Immediately UK waters for UK fishermen.

    • bigneil
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 10:42 am | Permalink

      FUS – – -best post on this site – -absolutely true on every point. Reflected by virtually every person I speak to saying exactly the same as you have just done. A standing round of applause for you, which is slightly difficult with a back as bad as mine. Well said.

      • Fedupsoutherner
        Posted September 30, 2018 at 6:54 pm | Permalink

        Thanks for that Big Neil. I think there are many in the country that would like to vote for common sense policies. Sadly none of the main parties offer this. I note that many more turbines in Scotland are being switched off. The big operators continue to produce and get paid while we have to pay to switch off more and more. Nice way to make money. Something for nothing.

    • Adam
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 3:09 pm | Permalink

      fedupsoutherner:

      UKIP has its finger on the pulse of majorities’ preferences. Few sign up as members, yet millions are poised to vote for UKIP common sense at elections.

    • Bob
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 10:17 pm | Permalink

      @fedupsoutherner

      You forgot to mention abolition of Stamp Duty and Inheritance Tax

  16. Sir Joe Soap
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 8:23 am | Permalink

    Good points but they have your money. I’m always loathed to buy something like this with a large deposit. It normally means you’re paying the full price and as you say no guarantee of delivery date.
    I’d only do it with a penalty for late delivery which undoubtedly they do with their suppliers.

    It might be worth putting these questions to the automotive companies for an explanation.

  17. ChrisS
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 8:26 am | Permalink

    The protestations from the manufacturers are nothing more than Bullshit intended to frighten politicians into keeping us within the SM and CU. You can’t blame them for trying, they have their businesses to protect.

    But all is not lost : according to Digby Jones ( PM programme Saturday ) German manufacturers are already applying pressure to Merkel and Co to make a deal that protects at least a million jobs in Germany. The CEOs of BMW and Audi must be especially vocal behind closed doors with the leaders of the CSU, Merkel’s troublesome partner party in Bayern, where both Companies are based.

    David Davis has at last been revealing a little of the way he was undermined and betrayed by Robbins and Co during the so-called negotiations. He points out that May’s trusted advisers don’t understand how negotiations works because they have never run any kind of business. It’s very obvious that this applies to her as well.

    Hammond has no such excuse and his deliberate actions designed to depress growth in the run up to March 2019 make no business sense at all.

    • Len Grinds
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 8:33 am | Permalink

      I do feel sorry for David Davis. He has explained what the UK should do over the last couple of weeks. If only he had been the Secretary of State for Exiting the EU at some stage, he could have put that into practice. Such a shame that he was never put in charge of the process, I’m sure it would be going well now if he had been.

      • libertarian
        Posted September 30, 2018 at 11:45 am | Permalink

        Len Grinds

        Oh dear, another smartarse know nothing. You know very well that Davis resigned because the UK remain government wouldn’t follow his advice

      • NickC
        Posted September 30, 2018 at 12:49 pm | Permalink

        Len Grinds, David Davis was put in charge, had some successes (eg the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018), and worked on an exit trade deal plan – which was then binned by Theresa May. Blame the person responsible for that – Mrs May, not Mr Davis.

      • Caterpillar
        Posted September 30, 2018 at 3:22 pm | Permalink

        LG,

        Strange comment, Canada plus plus is what DD was doing, stopped by the PM and Civil Servants chequered plan.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 8:59 am | Permalink

      The only question is the extent to which elements of this anti-Brexit government are complicit in generating the constant flow of anti-Brexit propaganda.

      We know for sure that it is rare for any element of the government to rebut any of the anti-Brexit propaganda, and when that does happen the rebuttal is invariably feeble, but we do not know the extent to which the government, especially No 10, is actively organising and supplying the anti-Brexit propagandists.

  18. DUNCAN
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 8:31 am | Permalink

    There’s no doubt in my mind that May and her collaborators would and indeed will sacrifice the economic prosperity of the UK and its people to achieve their pro-EU objectives

    May is not a Tory. She’s liberal left and an appalling emblem of the capitulation of the Tory party to the liberal left political clique. Her ready embracing of authoritarian laws to crush a British citizen’s freedom of speech is truly terrifying and is an omen of what is to come unless the nation changes direction

    The UK and its people are today facing a political clique that is determined to politicise all human relationships. I find that genuinely disturbing. Politics is about power. The power to control and the power to silence. The politicisation of the British people since 1998 as been appalling and every Tory PM since as carried on with this liberal left fascist agenda which I believe is being driven by the EU and their culture of subtle oppression of those who represent a political threat.

    When was the last time you heard a British PM stand up to defend an individual’s divine right to express their views without fear or favour? I can’t recall. And yet we, the Tory party, have always championed a culture of the individual freedom and liberty

    The UK is a facing an authoritarian future within the EU and unless we have a libertarian PM an oppressive future outside of the EU

    • Chris
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

      I agree, Duncan. How refreshing it was to hear President Trump at his rally last night in West Virginia state the following, to huge cheers:
      “I am not going to sacrifice America’s sovereignty to unelected and unaccountable foreign bureaucrats…”
      He also went on to make the following points passionately: (approximation)
      We reject globalism.
      Our doctrine is that we love our country. Our leaders used to apologise for America. No more.
      I am returning power to the American people.
      Our nation was founded by pioneer men and women. They loved their families, their country and God. All had these things in common.
      Our ancestors did not sit at home while others set about destroying our country and their legacy.”

      Those points were made about 74 mins 40 secs onwards in his speech.

      Many, many more gems. Queues and queues of people, jam packed venue, utterly devoted and vocal crowds.

      How ghastly our political class have been in this country. Someone has to break out and stand up for our country, and very soon indeed. Please take courage from President Trump. He will easily win the mid-terms (do not believe the media), and a landslide is possible for a completely revamped Cons Party in this country, with an utterly committed Brexiteer at the helm, effecting Brexit and completely upending all the left liberal policies/Marxist type policies that we have had to endure (from a so called “Conservative” government”.

  19. Robert wide right
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 8:33 am | Permalink

    Answer to 1:

    It is misleading to suggest that the delivery date of your car is determined solely by the actual manufacturing where the JIT concept is applied.

    This article describes the challenges well: https://www.osv.ltd.uk/car-delivery/amp/?car-delivery/

    Reply Exactly tge point I was making. Most of the possible delays are not resolved by EU membership!

  20. Caterpillar
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 8:34 am | Permalink

    1,2,3,4. Perhaps the auto firms are not using JIT, perhaps they have just built in a WIP cap into an otherwise MRP based process.

    Perhaps if the Govt had implemented a clean Brexit (the only option consistent with the democratic choice) and published its tariff (and other tax) plans sometime in the past two years then companies with long/complex supply chains could have redesigned and have quality assured any new suppliers. [Ironically the Govt is late in delivering what the people ordered]

  21. Anonymous
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 8:38 am | Permalink

    The thought of ordering a new car. I’ve never done it nor ever been in a position to be able to, not sensibly anyway.

    Allegedly I’m overpaid but I still run old cars and have serviced them myself; until this year I decided never again to spend a weekend under an oily engine so will fork out to pay a mechanic, even though I know I am well capable.

    I suppose I could have taken out finance and bought new cars every three years but it still doesn’t get away from the fact that there is a big hit in depreciation to be absorbed. I have decided that this is unacceptable and so have chosen not to go this way.

    Despite being in the EU the only way for an average person (or even well above average in my case) is to make and mend or to take on huge debt. For all those who say “the EU has raised living standards” no. It’s the availability of credit which has done that. Scary amounts of personal debt.

    And those who are paying up front for new cars every three years ? I am paid a lot. In God’s name, how much are YOU earning ?

    I’ve always done everything right. Shopped around, paid into a pension, bought a house yet things are still tight. I really don’t know how young people are going to manage, Brexit or no Brexit. This country’s ills have been plastered over with credit and the importation of able people who are unstunted by our awful comprehensive schooling, bad parenting and welfare system.

    • bigneil
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 10:22 am | Permalink

      Someone else who has never bought a new car, just like me. Nearest I got was an 8 month old Escort, which I kept for 13 years and put 180,000 miles on. I have never been in a position to buy a new one, yet have heard of disabled people who have arrived here, done nothing and are now driving round in a brand new Mobility car, paid for by us of course.

    • Posted September 30, 2018 at 6:08 pm | Permalink

      I think your last three points – comprehensive schooling, bad parenting and welfare system are

      have been the major ills in our system. It may have begun with ”boomers’ ” (understandable) desire to give their children what they didn’t have, but in the end it didn’t do them any favours. ”I want it and I want it NOW” seems to have been the mantra of the younger ones.Therefore they have no personal resources to fall back on.
      How sad.
      I want my family’s young ‘uns to get a part-time job when they can, pay into the communal pot as soon as they can, think about their future – and learn what being independent means.

      Take note, Andy. We’re not all old with no young ‘uns to consider. We may want to hand over a free and independent country. Ever considered THAT?

  22. A.Sedgwick
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 8:43 am | Permalink

    Two related points, cars have become ridiculously complicated, my guess is most of the computer stuff is not used or understood or needed. Secondly this number plate business is a nonsense. Jersey and Guernsey residents have number plate(s) for life, this seems a much more efficient and secure system.

    • bigneil
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 10:34 am | Permalink

      Agreed A.S. The computer ( and audio/phone connection stuff ) is also a massive distraction to young drivers who cause OUR insurance to go up.

  23. Know-Dice
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 8:56 am | Permalink

    Surely the essence of “Just in Time” procurement and production is to ensure that the components parts arrive at the factory gates just before you need them for the assembly line.

    Manufacture of a complicated assembly like a car will require parts from all over the world and the time from order to delivery will vary from component to component and supplier to supplier, the manufacturer will take this variable delivery time in to account whilst scheduling the manufacturing process.

    Thus if there was to be a delay in parts sourced say from within the EU the manufacturer could easily build that provision in to their manufacturing cycle – it’s not rocket science!!!

    One also has to ask the question how do manufactures currently deal with unexpected very variable delays due to shipping delays, road traffic accidents and delays etc.etc?

  24. Denis Cooper
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 9:48 am | Permalink

    Today the commentator Andrew Lilico offers a rather complicated solution for the largely fabricated problem of the Irish land border, over which just 0.1% of UK GDP is exported but which is nonetheless being allowed by this treacherous anti-Brexit UK government to shape its policy according to the anti-Brexit wishes of the Irish government.

    My solution is comparatively simple, and it is based on two assumptions which I believe are now beyond any sensible dispute and have been since last autumn:

    Firstly that at least for the time being the EU will allow the Irish government to veto any new arrangement which does not keep the UK under EU rules for both its Single Market AND its Customs Union.

    And secondly that the EU will demand, and Theresa May and her anti-Brexit colleagues will too willingly give, excessive concessions for any new special trade deal.

    From which I conclude that we should tell the EU that we are going to make no changes at all at the Irish border; that it is none of their business what goods are permitted in any part of the EU including Northern Ireland but we are willing to assist them by imposing export controls on what can be carried across the border into Ireland; and that we do not want to negotiate a special trade treaty before we leave the EU but we want to sort out the technical details of trading under the terms of the already existing WTO treaties.

    At which point I suppose a more contentious third assumption comes in, that in fact we could only expect marginal economic gains from a special trade deal like CETA compared to the WTO baseline and we can afford to wait to get those small gains later.

    Referring to the IEA report “Plan A+: Creating a prosperous post-Brexit UK”:

    http://www.cityam.com/263949/expectations-have-been-set-too-low-lets-go-free-trade-deal

    “… I see extensive criticism of the government’s January 2018 estimates … but no alternative numbers to the 7.7% GDP loss for WTO and 4.8% GDP loss for FTA.

    That would be a 2.9% GDP benefit of the FTA compared to WTO, which seems very high in the light of the projected benefits of either CETA or TTIP …”

    • forthurst
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 6:16 pm | Permalink

      Will we be preventing individual shoppers transporting planet wrecking vacuum cleaners over the border under your proposal?

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted October 1, 2018 at 10:10 am | Permalink

        That is where “de minimis” rules kick in, and I suppose it would partly depend on just how fussed the EU were about a citizen bringing in a particular item for personal or family use rather than for resale. If Irish trading standards officers found that such planet destroying vacuum cleaners were being flogged in street markets then they would doubtless want to investigate and track them back to their source in the north, and the UK authorities would co-operate with them as both sides already successfully co-operate to counter smuggling.

    • Peter D Gardner
      Posted October 2, 2018 at 8:45 am | Permalink

      Dead right. What we would gain above all from a WTO baseline being implemented on 29 March 2019 is breathing space to reconstruct the governance of UK as a sovereign parliamentary democracy with policies that prioritise UK’s national interests without distraction, interference and obstruction by the EU. The second is revitalising engagement with the world. The third is clarity on what benefits could be gained from any deal with the EU – probably fewer and smaller than currently claimed.
      Strategically the best deal would be WTO on trade, mutual recognition of standards for air safety, existing international frameworks on the EEZ and fishing, air transport, aviation safety etc. nothing on defence that compromises NATO in any way, cooperation on security, and participation in a few EU managed research programmes. A set of bare bones largely apolitical and entirely practical.

  25. agricola
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 9:48 am | Permalink

    I answer this one having been heavily involved in JIT possibly at about the same time that you were. There are misunderstandings about JIT. Before the Kobe earthquake everything was in a truck between the component manufacturer and the car plant. Kobe stopped the Japanese car industry, but not my UK customers because there was four weeks supply in four ships in transit and airfreight for emergency backup.

    Post Kobe dedicated component warehouses were created adjacent the car plants with good buffer supplies, run by the component manufacturer or more likely a dedicated logistics company. Initial toys out of the pram reactions to the realities of Brexit would have little effect, providing the logistics companies are running in the way I suggest.

    Car companies plan as you suggest. The right coloured doors arrive on the production line exactly as required, possibly having been in the car plant two hours, but in the adjacent logistics warehouse for two weeks. I doubt the car companies have reverted to everything being on the road in transit. As we have recently seen the government are more likely to screw up the smooth running of the car industry than the industry itself.

    JIT at the customer end is harder to cater for. Customers want it when they think of it , not planning six months ahead. I do sympathise with the roller coaster you experienced which I suspect was more of a dealer problem than a manufacturing one.

  26. Billy Elliot
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 9:51 am | Permalink

    Rotterdam Dr Redwood. Rotterdam. We are the fourth largest user of Rotterdam port which is a vital entry point to EU. After Brexit we cant’t use it. At the moment our ports are not capable of taking care of those imports. No infrastructure no manpower.
    Has government taken this issue in to account?

    Reply Of course we can!

    • Chris
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 11:02 pm | Permalink

      B E, a significant percentage of our exports are required to go via Rotterdam first before they are “reexported” to where they were destined originally. This is all simply because we are members of the EU. When we are free, we can export freely, not having to go via Rotterdam first. Huge advantages to us.

    • Henry Spark
      Posted October 1, 2018 at 5:36 am | Permalink

      Billy, you don’t understand the Brexiter mindset. In Brexit world, if the UK wants access to Rotterdam port, it passes a law telling the Dutch they must let us use Rotterdam port. Westminster is sovereign, don’t you know!

      • NickC
        Posted October 1, 2018 at 10:41 am | Permalink

        Henry Spark, And you have just demonstrated the Remain mindset – where pathetic playground politics trumps business. Only it doesn’t. You see, the Dutch are keen for us to continue using Rotterdam – not because we’re in, or out, of the EU but because it is business.

      • libertarian
        Posted October 1, 2018 at 10:51 am | Permalink

        Henry Spark & Billy Elliot

        Have you any idea how stupid you make yourselves look?

        Rotterdam as a commercial port receives shipments from all over the world. There is absolutely nothing stopping shipments from UK into Rotterdam .

        As their fourth biggest customer why on earth would they want us to stop using it?

        It astounds me how many remainers without a clue about export trade come out with this type of nonsense

        With regard to imports into the UK, there are more than 20 ports in the UK

        Indeed Southampton Docks just last week held a training week for both EU & Non EU Dock management in how to handle Ro-Ro cargoes. This was a mandatory CPD training course for dock management staged by one of the worlds leading ports Southampton

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted October 1, 2018 at 10:14 am | Permalink

      What a load of timewasting twaddle.

  27. bigneil
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 10:29 am | Permalink

    JIT? – – we were given a talk on this years ago at work as the firm was going to adopt the practise. Then the workers pointed out that one slight delivery slip meant the plant shut down and would cost a fortune to restart everything again ( we worked a 24/7 production system. I even worked the first 19 xmas days I was employed there ). JIT was not adopted.

  28. Edward2
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 10:42 am | Permalink

    I used to be involved in the supply chain to companies that ran JIT systems.
    We called it SOPHS which stood for “some other person hold stock”
    Whilst these giant assembly plants have minimal stock their suppliers hold loads of stock.

  29. Richard1
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 10:56 am | Permalink

    Andrew Marr asked Mrs May 7 or 8 Times to comfirm that WTO terms would require a hard border in Norther Ireland. As ever she repeatedly refused to answer the question, relying on formulaic ‘we are working for no hard border etc’. Does or does not the WTO require the U.K. to erect a hard border in Northern Ireland if we do not have a trade deal with the EU?

    Marr also produced the ridiculous Treasury forecasts of -7% GDP after 15 years under WTO – and distorted the actual conclusion of the Treasury – and again Mrs May didn’t just say such forecasts are meaningless and depend on policies adopted. If we have Corbyn and Venezuela-on-sea it will be far worse than -7%. If we have a robust free market Conservative Government it will be much better.

    Boris Johnson seems to be a busted flush,with polls shown he’d do worse even than May against Corbyn. Let’s get through March 19 best we can and for goodness sake find an articulate and committed robust defender of pro-enterprise policies to take on the quasi-Marxist nonsense coming out of Labour.

    • Posted September 30, 2018 at 7:02 pm | Permalink

      ”Busted flush”? Is that what Facebook is saying? I don’t read it, so perhaps I’m behind the curve.

    • Tory in Cheshire
      Posted October 1, 2018 at 5:43 am | Permalink

      Richard, the WTO does not require the UK to erect a hard border in N.I. if we do not have a trade deal with the EU. The WTO requires only that the border in Ireland shall be the same as the border at Dover, and Felixstowe, etc. This is the basic WTO rule on non-discrimination. So if the UK wants to abandon all its controls at Dover, Felixstowe etc, and simply allow a free-for-all, then it can do the same in Ireland. But if the UK wants to maintain passport and other checks at Dover, Felixstowe, etc, then it must do the same in Ireland. Anyone who tells you the UK can simply leave the border open in Ireland but not do the same at Dover, Felixstowe, etc, does not understand the WTO rules (or wants to break them)

      • Peter D Gardner
        Posted October 2, 2018 at 8:27 am | Permalink

        That is almost right. The Common Travel Area between UK and Ireland does not breach any WTO rules. Also it is rarely recognised, especially by Remainer types and anti-No Deal types, that the WTO does not enforce any rules. What it does is provide a framework in which members can form relationships and regulate their own affairs. If a member is alleged to have broken the WTO’s rules than it can seek arbitration and settlement through the WTO and, if necessary the international court. But responsibility for initiation of this process lies with the would-be complainant, not the WTO. It is also worth bearing in mind that whilst there are various agreements within the auspices of the WTO that apply to all members, those agreements also provide for many exceptions to the general rules to be made.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted October 2, 2018 at 11:20 am | Permalink

        “The WTO requires only that the border in Ireland shall be the same as the border at Dover, and Felixstowe, etc. This is the basic WTO rule on non-discrimination.”

        I see, so the WTO is stupid enough to require that a land border be treated in exactly the same way as a maritime border.

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted October 1, 2018 at 1:48 pm | Permalink

      I’m glad you mentioned that. Here is the transcript:

      http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/30091803.pdf

      and when Andrew Marr said:

      “But if we leave on so called no deal, WTO rules, that does mean an Irish border, doesn’t it? We’ve checked with the WTO, it does mean a border in Ireland.”

      the obvious answer would have been along the lines of:

      “Of course there will be a border, Andrew, because there is already a border and it’s only the Irish government who keep trying to pretend that there’s no border at the moment. But that doesn’t mean there would necessarily have to be any checks at the actual border, or any new infrastructure, and we have already pledged that there will be none on our side. But if you think that WTO rules demand otherwise then you’d better show me those rules, give me chapter and verse.”

      Not her pathetic “Obviously there are certain WTO rules.”, inevitably leading on to repetitions of his false claim “But if we leave without a deal there will be a border in Ireland, won’t there?”, and “So you’ll try but you’ll inevitably fail, because on WTO rules there has to be a border and we should level with people and explain that.”; however the fact is that she knows that this is a lie but being a habitual liar herself she is perfectly happy to have another useful lie spread around.

      • Peter D Gardner
        Posted October 2, 2018 at 8:33 am | Permalink

        The WTO does not have any rules on the erection, configuration or operation of borders. None. Zilch. it does have rules about all member countries being treated equally but that is all.

        Reply Read the Facilitation of Trade Agreement. It has plenty to say re ease at borders and NTBs

    • mancunius
      Posted October 1, 2018 at 8:45 pm | Permalink

      ‘Polls’ – which polls? The last poll recorded showed that Johnson was the front runner to take over from May – and that was among Tory MPs.
      I see The Economist, the News Statesman, the Guardian and the Independent are all saying he is wildly unpopular. But then…
      … M.R-D applies.

    • Peter D Gardner
      Posted October 2, 2018 at 8:30 am | Permalink

      if the backstop remains as it is in the Withdrawal Agreement, it will be too late to prevent BRINO/vassalage. There would be no reason for the EU to renegotiate it.

  30. formula57
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 10:58 am | Permalink

    When your supplier admitted ” ….the car would not be available until November, as they has misjudged their future production schedules” it did not reveal the malevolent hidden hand of the Evil Empire.

    The new emission standards (Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP)) applying in the EU this month required all new vehicles’ engines to be certified or else the vehicles could not be sold. Delays in certification have obliged many (or all?) manufacturers to materially disrupt production.

  31. homebird
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 11:18 am | Permalink

    It hardly matters now we are so near the end..there will be no deal on Chequers plan and with nothing else prepared that means leaving under WTO terms, that is unless President Trump hasn’t wrecked it..so then what was there before WTO? GATT? and before that what?

    Very likely what we’ll see is a wind down of the Dover Calais roll on roll off conveyor system to more cargo being shipped in containers through Rotterdam Antwerp and Felixstowe Southampton just like a lot of cargo coming in containers from China America and places far away

    Well we won’t have very long now to wait to see what’s going to happen so no point in sniping at one another.. just sit back and enjoy golf

  32. The Prangwizard
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 11:21 am | Permalink

    Well said! I have too been getting more than a little tired of the promotion by companies of their JIT policies and how efficient they claim to be – for our benefit. The JIT motive and purpose was and is to reduce costs by minimising stock. If customers have benefitted it is surely co-incidental but welcome in any event should it be so. Competition and varoety of choice is a downward pressure on prices. I haven’t bought a new car for many years however.

    I dare say it would work more for the customer directly with a single simple product, but it must be very difficult in cars where there are many many specification options.

  33. George Hinton
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 11:58 am | Permalink

    Honda in Swindon that JIT means that they 5 mins of prodction stored on site and rely on constant deliveries to maintain production. Whether that is right or just propaganda, you might want to find out for yourself.

    • Sir Joe Soap
      Posted September 30, 2018 at 5:25 pm | Permalink

      Well my Satnav isn’t that good at predicting arrival time. Do they have lorries in a queue outside then, or do the lines just stop in rush hour?
      Sounds inefficient

      • Peter D Gardner
        Posted October 2, 2018 at 8:17 am | Permalink

        Careful! Common sense can earn you worse than ad hominem attacks.

  34. Denis Cooper
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 12:44 pm | Permalink

    Probably the most interesting and useful sentence uttered by anybody on any of this morning’s politics programmes came from David Davis talking to Sophie Ridge, referring to various detailed special arrangements between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic which already exist and which could continue after the UK leaves the EU:

    “We were talking to the Irish government before Mr Varadkar came into power, and they were talking about these things, and all of a sudden it’s all stopped.”

    Leo Varadkar assumed the office of Taoiseach or Prime Minister, that is he “came into power”, on June 14th 2017.

    Whether the sudden change highlighted by David Davis was down solely to Irish politics or also involved EU politics is an open question, but the facts are that by the autumn the Irish government was adopting a more extreme position on the border and the Irish EU Commissioner was demanding that the UK, or at least Northern Ireland, must stay within the ambit of both the EU Single Market and the EU Customs Union:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ireland-border-brexit-latest-theresa-may-customs-union-phil-hogan-northern-a8076271.html

    “Brexit: Remain in customs union and single market to solve border issue, Ireland’s European commissioner tells May”

    “Theresa May is facing fresh pressure to change course over plans for the Northern Irish border after Brexit as Ireland’s EU commissioner stepped up threats to veto trade talks.

    Rows over the prospect of a hard border on the island of Ireland are threatening to derail negotiations as the EU has said “sufficient progress” must be made before talks can begin on a UK-EU trade deal after Britain leaves the bloc.

    Commissioner Phil Hogan called for the UK to remain in the customs union and single market – or allow Northern Ireland to do so – but the Prime Minister’s DUP allies have vowed they will not tolerate any attempts to keep Northern Ireland within the trade agreements.”

  35. John Probert
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 2:09 pm | Permalink

    Don’t buy new, buy an E- type !!

  36. Backtoback
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 2:16 pm | Permalink

    Looking forward to hearing Liam Fox speaking later this afternoon..i’m interested i his ideas for new deals with other countries overseas..this is his chance to convince us we are on the right track

  37. forthurst
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 2:18 pm | Permalink

    JIT is designed to keep the factory fully loaded without shifts being interrupted by changes to the product mix. Consequently, JR’s car will not be individually scheduled but will become part of a batch whose schedule is only firmed a few days before assembly; meanwhile, the factory has been placing orders well in advance to component suppliers here and abroad depending on lead times and on the emerging popularity of the various products they sell.

    If, hypothetically, a vehicle manufacturer in Germany found that its engines manufactured in the UK were been held up at an EU port after we had left the EU, it is likely that Mrs Merkel would receive a phone call from the Chairman of the manufacturer inviting her to emasculate the offending state’s chief executive.

  38. John S
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 2:21 pm | Permalink

    Excellently put. I suspect supermarkets are employing this practice as well.

  39. Chris S
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 3:43 pm | Permalink

    This weekend we have been staying with friends inWarwick so I obtained a ticket for Sunday afternoon’s Leave Means Leave rally in Solihull.

    The conference centre was packed, with most there to hear Nigel Farage speakm He did not disappoint. The previous speaker was Peter Bone MP.
    With tongue only slightly in cheek, Peter said that after the referendum, had the goverment been sensible, and they seldom are, they should have elevated Nigel to the Lords and put him in charge of negotiations with Brussels.

    I wonder what the outcome would have been ?
    It could hardly be worse, could it?

  40. Newmania
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 4:18 pm | Permalink

    If I thought public servants really knew more about business than the people doing it .
    I would be a supporter of Jeremy Corbyn. I do not.

  41. Helen Smith
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 5:45 pm | Permalink

    Like you Mr. Redwood we have always made a point of buying British made cars, and carpets, three piece suites etc. I always felt it a deal more useful all round to voting Labour and buying foreign as my sister does!

    There was an incredible story in the DT the other day saying 10% of UK firms could go bankrupt if there was a 30 minute delay at ports after Brexit. The mind boggles.

    Toyota are at again saying in the event of a no deal Brexit they will halt production for anything from hours to months? Why is that? Are they incapable of a bit of forward planning, buying in parts maybe a day or so earlier, the whole thing beggars belief it really does.

    I guess they really believe that leave voters are stupid and therefore assume that we will swallow a tissue of lies hook, line and sinker.

    • Peter D Gardner
      Posted October 2, 2018 at 8:12 am | Permalink

      I am not sure it is Toyota ‘at it’. Toyota does not write the press release. I suspect the reports we hear and read are based on a careful misrepresentation. For example, the question would be, ‘If there were disruption of supplies reaching your factory from hours to days, would you have to shut down the production line?” The answer would probably be on the lines of, “All Toyota workers on the line have the power to stop production if they see anything wrong. We immediately institute an investigation and take corrective action. This can take minutes or sometimes hours or even, but very rarely, days, depending on the problem.” Next question, “some reports say delays at ports after Brexit could last hours, so if that were a critical component and for some reason you were out of stock that would stall production, wouldn’t it?” Answer, it would be very unlikely that we would run out of stock but some parts come over long sea routes, there are often delays with road transport, which is always unpredictable in any case, strikes and so on but in theory it could happen, yes.”
      “Thank you” and wham the next day’s headline reads, “No Deal Brexit would cause Toyota to stop production in UK”!
      It’s all bollocks.

  42. Hardlyever
    Posted September 30, 2018 at 6:16 pm | Permalink

    Just listening to jeremy hunt today can’t help wondering where he gets this sanctimonious high horse stuff about britain always respecting EU and EU institutions..I only have to think back to the UKIP rabble MEPs and tory MEPs in the EU parliament hurling abuse and personal insults across at european senior politicians and it has been going on for years..not to mention the tory backed rag press with their endless sniping at everything that the EU stands for. And now today he is issuing warnings that the EU better respect UK’S chequers proposals and not put UK into a corner..well am afraid that it is not the EU who put UK into the corner..UK has done that all by itself..just to finish..UK is going nowhere with Chequers and there is no plan B in sight and we are at the 11th hour..so you can see where we are headed..not even a Canada deal..the brussels crowd will burn your ass and with no word from anyone including mr fox about the great plans lined up for new global trading future..it’s all pie in the sky

    • NickC
      Posted October 1, 2018 at 10:47 am | Permalink

      Hardlyever, If it is so terrible to criticise your political opponents, why are you doing so?

    • mancunius
      Posted October 1, 2018 at 9:14 pm | Permalink

      Diddums. It must hurt your EU paymasters terribly.
      Are they aware your multi-ID bot is so easy to see through? Three different IDs today already – and always so laughably obvious. ;-))

    • Peter D Gardner
      Posted October 2, 2018 at 7:57 am | Permalink

      If it is pie in the sky it would be because Mrs May has stopped all plans B, C, D etc. Even her contingency plans for No Deal verge on the idiotic. They are an attempt to give real substance to Project Fear.

  43. a-tracy
    Posted October 1, 2018 at 9:11 am | Permalink

    There should be a rebate scheme like they have on late trains or late planes to take deposits back or interest on the deposits, that might sharpen the providers up to not to take too many on promised Sept 1 delivery dates if they can’t cope. I hate poor service and if you’d sold your other car on the due date you’d be in trouble and having hire costs to cover. This is a regular practice of vehicle providers even outside of Sept 1st delivery dates with no penalty.

  44. KZB
    Posted October 1, 2018 at 5:37 pm | Permalink

    The M6 is currently virtually impassable.
    The M60 (Manchester orbital M-way) “Smart motorway” that we have been looking forward to for three years of delays is an absolute joke. How have they got away with over £200m for that? There needs to be a big enquiry about that fiasco let me tell you.
    Anyhow, just in time must be a joke as well. Certainly us up North with our collapsed rail system and choked motorways can tell you that.

    • a-tracy
      Posted October 2, 2018 at 7:51 am | Permalink

      Its a money-raising scheme, from naughty driver school fines and speeding fines, there have also been more crashes on this stretch doing 50mph than ever before, going slow, bunching, driving in two lanes instead of using all three that is NOT smart at all, you have to drive at 50mph on a near empty motorway in the evening and weekends when there are no road workers on the sections, they then start more roadworks two junctions down whilst this scheme hasn’t been finished.

      It is reducing the productivity of the North West Economy and the Conservatives just don’t care because its Up North, this would never be allowed in their commuter belt. It’s causing tremendous problems for commercial fleets yet I never hear the RHA or the FTA complaining about it yet I know their members have many problems.

    • Peter D Gardner
      Posted October 2, 2018 at 7:53 am | Permalink

      It isn’t JIT that is the joke. It is the ridiculous claims of Remainers and other objectors that a few seconds or a minute’s delay at Dover will therefore cause the loss of thousands of jobs and the M20 turning into a lorry park.

  45. Peter D Gardner
    Posted October 2, 2018 at 7:49 am | Permalink

    All very true, Dr Redwood; also true that most commentators and even most MPs know very little about JIT. They also lack commonsense. Surely a blind deaf mute on the Clapham omnibus who failed all his school exams would still understand that after a sea voyage lasting weeks an hour two’s delay at the docks makes no difference. And yet MPs passionately claim how disastrous even one minute would be, leading to the conversion of the M20 into a lorry park and the loss of thousands of jobs. Are they that ignorant and stupid or are they lying?

    To be fair, the reason you, the customer, face a delay is that you are British and the British customer does not complain and expects poor service. So in Britain manufacturer’s can still reduce their stock like other JIT supply chains but simply delay deliveries when the supply chain fails to supply in time, without fear of losing sales. I suspect german customers are not so forgiving so UK manufacturers supplying components need to operate rather more tightly controlled supply chains.
    I have pointed out before that BMW manufactures in several countries outside the EU, involving supply chains crossing thousands of miles of ocean. It is no problem for BMW. If BMW or any other car manufacturer states that Brexit will cause it problems it will not be because of anything intrinsic to Brexit and their manufacturing and logistics in UK but something else the Government has done or has failed to do – a promise unfulfilled perhaps.

  46. Jasg
    Posted October 2, 2018 at 10:07 am | Permalink

    JIT manufacture is most likely the reason why traffic in Japan is so bad. Manufacturers save money and the rest of us have to build new roads. I’d call that a subsidy. Plus from an environmental perspective JIT is a terrible idea.

    Moreover there are many modern manufacturing engineers who think JIT is Just Too Much Trouble: It suited Japan in the past but it never really suited anyone else. eg. JIT makes no sense in any business where you get big discounts for buying in bulk rather than in dribs and drabs; ie most business!

  • About John Redwood


    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, He graduated from Magdalen College Oxford, has a DPhil and is a fellow of All Souls College. A businessman by background, he has been a director of NM Rothschild merchant bank and chairman of a quoted industrial PLC.

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