News that there might not be a deal was said to have lowered the pound yesterday. Quite why signing a Withdrawal Agreement to force the UK to send another £39bn across the exchanges to the rest of the EU should be good news is anyone’s guess. Of course it was not quite like that. The pound, along with other currencies, slipped against the dollar, but it stayed strong against the Euro at 1.14 compared to the August low of Euro 1.10 when a deal seemed more likely.
The habit of ascribing all these movements to Brexit is bizarre. Ask how you would have explained the moves without a Brexit vote and you will probably produce a more convincing explanation of what is happening.
November 13, 2018
Good morning.
Whatever one places before BREXIT in terms of negative coverage, you can never argue against all the money we have lost, both in terms of contributions and fines. Plus the loss in competitve advantage as others, such as Poland, have had both their economy subsidised and, their unemployment reduced thanks to us. Plus the loss ti GDP of the disaster that was the ERM.
If we truly do leave the EU, the rEU27 are going to seriously look back and wish they gave CMD a little bit more than the, ‘thin gruel’ they offered him.
November 13, 2018
Cameron, very foolishly from his perspective, failed to negotiate seriously with the EU and was thus offered virtually nothing. The EU knew he would never back leave. Offered this pathetic and insulting gruel he clearly should have recommended leaving and as soon as possible.
Cast Iron became leader by pretending to be an EU sceptic and low tax at heart Conservative he was nothing of the kind. He failed to prepare for a Brexit outcome, tried to slope the election pitch and then just abandoned ship like a petulant child.
Such a shame as he had such a wonderful opportunity with two sitting duck elections that he should have won with good margins had he put a sensible, real Tory get out of the EU agenda.
BBC favourite “thinker” Polly Toynbee on Newsnight (yet again) seems to be worried that cheese will go up 60% if we leave on WTO terms. What planet is this women on?
November 13, 2018
It seems airlines have to continue to employ pilots who develop a fear of flying and so are unable to fly. What wonderful employment laws we have that Appeaser May want to build on! Must do wonders for UK productivity.
November 13, 2018
“I want them to know that I will not compromise on what people voted for in the referendum. This will not be an agreement at any cost.”
JR, this is an extract from May las night. I believe she is lied, do you?
November 14, 2018
Well it is not only a “compromise” it is a complete cave in from May. The worst deal ever, a complete and total surrender, as if we have been defeated in a war.
November 13, 2018
The people voted leave. Parliament accepted it and both main parties used this as a central plank to get elected. This was a deceit as both did not intend to deliver. Both parties were and are dishonest to their intentions to the public.
Delivering Brexit is not hard. Politicians have deliberately argued amongst themselves trying to find specious ways of keeping the UK in the EU. Barnier was quoted yesterday as the deal was done it leaves the UK to sing off in cabinet. May last night again lied in her speech and has clearly failed to deliver Brexit. Chequers will not and cannot deliver Brexit. Allowing unelected EU judges control over any aspect of laws in trade is not taking back control of laws, allowing unelected EU commission to decide any aspect of our trade policy or inhibiting our desire to trade with any other country on whatever terms we wish is also not taking back control of anything, it is certainly not taking back control of laws or money. The backstop deliberately and expressly stops the UK from doing this and the is no reason why the EU would seek a better deal or trade deal that would release the U.K. to be a better competitor than it. Jo Johnson claims Chequers is a deceit on the public. It is not. It fails to deliver Brexit, May knows this but is deliberately lying to convince us otherwise. This is not incompetence it is dishonesty.
Chequers does not deliver Brexit and the backstop was devised to prevent and delay that happening. This was not an accident it was by design to help the public change our minds.
The public has not changed its mind. May has failed to deliver Brexit in the two year timeframe of Article 50. May does not have the honour to resign, sadly the Tory MPs will not oust her. This is the problem. May and her govt. to must be ousted. The people should not tolerate this nonsense any longer. Parliament is not fit for purpose.
November 13, 2018
JR, report out today stating borders not secure by any stretch of the imagination. Highlighting how unde Rudd 56,000 lost before deportation including 700 ex cons!
Why was May or Rudd not sacked? Reasonable question bearing May falsely claimed that the borders were secure.
November 13, 2018
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has now called on his U.K. counterpart to call a second referendum on Brexit.
They’re getting worried.
November 13, 2018
They’re really not. EU countries do not want Brexit. They do not like Brexit. They know it will have a negative impact on them.
They also know it will have a far more negative impact on Brexiteers like you. Shame you’ve not figured it out yet.
November 13, 2018
Andy
Lets get this straight
The other EU members dont like Brexit
The other EU members know it will impact them negatively
The other EU members are telling us not to leave
According to the genius that is Andy they aren’t worried about any of this though !
OK , if you say so ( smh)
November 13, 2018
Just caught 10 mins of BBC radio on Brexit. The piece consisted of: a company they have found which is stockpiling materials due to the uncertainty of ‘crashing out’ (BBC words) of the EU; a retail industry representative alarmed that there might be a shortage of perishable items like tomatoes post a WTO-Brexit; and an economist (admittedly the distinguished Mohammed El-Erian) who forecasts an immediate recession post WTO-Brexit.
I don’t object to any of this. I don’t mind if the BBC finds someone who will predict that millions will die post WTO-Brexit, and that the dead will have to be heaped, unburied, in the streets, due to the lack of EU workers to bury them.
What I mind is: 1) BBC interviewers do not ask remain alarmists why their prophesies of doom might come about – why will there be a recession? will there be a tomato blockade by the EU? will the UK govt block imports of EU tomatoes? & if so how and why in each case; and 2) no-one is interviewed to give a dissenting opinion. So the alarmist predictions are left to stand, unchallenged, as if they were ‘news’ rather than part of a political campaign.
November 13, 2018
Or indeed why they just dont buy tomatoes from one of Europes biggest growers , Thanet Earth in Kent
November 13, 2018
Theresa May has locked herself in the cockpit and handed control to Second Officer Robbins.
We’re going DOWN !
Leavers abandoned the battlefield and well organised and well funded Remainers dominated from the day after the referendum.
I wish it had never happened.
Give me a spoon. I’d rather eat my own vomit than ever vote Tory again and this goes for every single person I know.
Prepare for Corbyn .
November 14, 2018
Prepare for Gerard Batten and for no inheritance tax, no HS2, no stamp duty, no foreign aid, no TV Licence, no EU membership, no tuition fees for STEM subjects.
If you want it, you have to vote for it.
I’ve said all along that the Tories would fudge Brexit, they won’t change.
November 13, 2018
I recall your brilliant theory that the pound dropping due to the Referendum was just one of those crazy coincidences as well, genius . At least this week , thinking about the outbreak of war in 1914 we can all see that things could be a great deal worse. Everyone called everyone`s bluff then and no-one was bluffing, we are lucky the stakes are so relatively low, god help us if this sort of politician is ever allowed to do anything really important .
November 13, 2018
One year ago you said you weren’t going to post here anymore, why don’t you stick to your word.
If I was the moderator your and Andy’s insulting posts would never see the light of day due to immediate deletion.
November 13, 2018
It must be so hard reading comments from outside your little fantasy echo chamber! This place may be brimming full of angry pensioners but the world is not.
November 14, 2018
Andy
Nope I’m in the real world and here on planet reality this is whats happening
German GDP growth figures have today been released for the third quarter this year. Official numbers now show that the German economy actually contracted by 0.2% in the third quarter, 0.6% below what was forecast. Meanwhile, Italy is completely stagnant. This latest release comfortably puts the UK at the top of the EU ‘big four’ growth league…
November 13, 2018
If we have a second referendum (as you seem to be pushing for) and we vote Remain then will we be returning under anything like the deal we had before the Leave vote ?
November 13, 2018
If we have a second referendum and we vote leave what then?
It seems to me that those calling for a new vote only see us staying. If we continue to vote for freedom do we just leave or do we have to vote again?
Little is said about the consequences of a second leave vote but I wonder if we wouldn’t actually get the completely free trade we are seeking without worrying about the Irish border if the EU saw we were serious.
If the above is feasible then why don’t we just indicate we are serious by walking away?
November 13, 2018
Another silly post. Why don’t you try to come up with some coherent arguments and actual facts?
November 13, 2018
Who is “everyone”? “Everyone called everyone`s bluff then and no-one was bluffing,”
I read an interesting article in the Guardian that argued the UK should have stayed out of WW1 and we got dragged into WW1 due to an old treaty commitment to uphold Belgian neutrality.
November 13, 2018
Newmania, do please at least TRY to come up with some arguments and facts to support your ridiculous statements. Otherwise, I’m afraid you just confirm how lacking in any basic logic or common sense your views on this subject are. Please explain to us how the pound has RISEN against the euro but fallen against the dollar. How could Brexit manage that outcome, please?
November 13, 2018
Newmania
For someone who claims to be a financial expert ( lol) you are astonishingly ill informed about FX markets
November 13, 2018
As pointed out on previous occasions, most recently here in August:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/08/17/the-dollar-is-surging-against-all-currencies-this-has-nothing-to-do-with-brexit/#comment-955162
the sterling trade weighted index had actually peaked in August 2015, ten months before the referendum, and while it dropped sharply after the vote that was partly because it had risen significantly in the weeks leading up to the vote and after that brief gyration it rejoined the same pre-established downwards trend:
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/fromshowcolumns.asp?Travel=NIxAZxSUx&FromSeries=1&ToSeries=50&DAT=RNG&FD=1&FM=Jan&FY=1998&TD=31&TM=Dec&TY=2025&FNY=Y&CSVF=TT&html.x=66&html.y=26&SeriesCodes=XUDLBK67&UsingCodes=Y&Filter=N&title=XUDLBK67&VPD=Y
The House of Commons Library published an updated briefing on Exchange Rates on Friday, which can be downloaded here:
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN02811
and the same peak in the late summer of 2015 is shown on its chart of the sterling trade weighted index, plus separate charts show sterling starting to decline against the US dollar a year earlier, in mid-2014, and peaking against the euro around the middle of 2015.
These are the simple uncontestable statistical facts, undistorted by your fanatical desire to blame Brexit for all the ills of the world.
November 13, 2018
“Pound Sterling Shoots Higher vs. Euro + Dollar on News of Irish Border Breakthrough”. Tuesday, 13 November 2018 16:30 (Pound Sterling Live).
“The Pound Advances on Euro & Dollar: Brexit Deal Possible in 24-48 Hours says “Cautiously Optimistic” Lidington Tuesday, 13 November 2018 15:24
According to BIS 2016 averages, there will be about £500 billion traded in Sterling denominated financial instruments today. Equivalent to about a quarter of the UK’s yearly GDP, in one day.
November 13, 2018
It is ‘endgame’ time apparently.
Reassuring numbers against Chequers minus minus, or whatever May is now planning.
However, since she is completely untrustworthy I expect her to continue to try to force some sort of terrible deal through,
November 13, 2018
Peter
The very worst that she could do whilst still leader would be to call an election based on her not being able to get Chequers Minus, Minus through the Commons.
The Conservatives then have a huge problem, with May fighting another election over negotiations whilst still in charge.
The Conservatives would then be absolutely toasted and she knows it (or should do), and that is why many Politicians may vote for ANY DEAL she gets, to try and avoid such an election.
If they do not get rid of her before she has that chance.
The longer she remains leader, the higher that risk.
November 13, 2018
No Alan. May had the last election to make sure her remain plan got through without an election to interrupt or change anything. JR and chums let that happen. JR and chums had plenty of warning and chances to oust her and this dishonest sham May has agreed. They chose not to. They could have ousted before summer recess, they chose not to.
Why is May in office tonight terrorising ministers one by one? Jo Johnsons resignation last Friday delayed May by a couple of days to think of a plan to get through cabinet and parliament. The deal to sell out and betray our nation was already done.
JR and chums knew she was ploughing on with her sell out and scare stories. It has been obvious since 8/12/2017.
JR, why have you allowed and, by in action, condoned this betrayal of our nation?
November 13, 2018
**The Conservatives would then be absolutely toasted and she knows it (or should do), **
Except that should Chequers minus minus be voted through, the party will also be absolutely toasted. This seems to be a flaw in their plan.
November 13, 2018
It sadly appears that the cabinet and the so called leave group of Tory MP’s are about to capitulate .
Ive no idea why they would do that, I’ve no idea why they lack the foresight to see that if May gets her way the Conservative Party will be destroyed , I’ve no idea why they lack the bottle to have removed May and the serially incompetent Hammond
We are Lions led by donkeys
November 13, 2018
Values vary according to what individuals assess, including their assessment of what others might do, which depends on their guessing. News organisations attributing causes to those favouring their agenda lose the value of their own credibility.
November 13, 2018
I see that the French Minister of Finance has warned that unless fiscal union is rapidly introduced, with a Eurozone budget, the Euro is at very serious risk when the next financial crisis hits.
So, either by accident or design, the ‘ever-closer Union” approaches…or Empire, as it might be more accurately described.
November 13, 2018
He is right. The euro is the central project of the EU and clearly requires political and fiscal union to make it work, with cross-guarantees on sovereign debt and bank bailout arrangements etc. Would the UK, had we remained in the EU, have been able to stay out of this? Are Continuity Remain in favour of us joining it as many leading remainers have argued for in the past? There has been a lack of honesty by Remain on this, few if any now admit to having supported ERM and then euro membership.
November 13, 2018
Just more ways of putting the fear of God into people. The BBC are experts at it. I don’t take notice of their ‘news’ any more but still have to pay for it.
November 13, 2018
The BBC still frames the much of the political agenda. They are just like the Libdims wrong on almost every single issue.
November 14, 2018
You don’t have to pay for the BBC.
A TV Licence is only required if you watch or record TV broadcasts as they are broadcast. You don’t need a Licence to own a TV or to watch recorded programs or on-demand (catch-up) programs.
You can’t watch TV programs on iPlayer thanks to changes brought in by the Tories in the last Charter review, but you can use it to listen to BBC Radio because radio listening does not require a TV Licence.
If you have a Smart TV, an Amazon Firestick or a Chromecast dongle you can access lots of programs and films online without the need of a Licence.
There are many ways to avoid the BBC tax now thanks to the internet.
Reply Good idea to check the law on this
November 13, 2018
Well we are all aware of the useless Brussels Broadcasting Company’s ethic – any bad news is because of Brexit, and any good news is despite Brexit.
Anyone with any sense doesn’t take the drivel put out by the BBC seriously.
November 13, 2018
No..all of the other currencies are moving about..the Pound stays the same..so nothing to do with brexit
November 13, 2018
I don’t know what all the fuss is about. Both governments have traditionally allowed the pound to slide to boost exports and again we are seeing the benefit now without the inflation that often follows.
Is this the latest anti Brexit tactic believing that the British people have some sort of nationalistic macho attachment to the value of the pound.
I wonder what they would say if the DMark was still in existence?
November 13, 2018
Any politician who believes that if Chequers goes through there will be not be political consequences of the most severe kind is in absolute denial.
17.5 million voters will teach politicans what a political punishment beating feels like.
(Oh and I forgot the 16m miffed Remainers who will put the political boot in too).
November 13, 2018
Pardon me Javelin, but why should Remainers be miffed when, if May gets her way, we will be staying in the EU?
November 13, 2018
Conservatism: Ideas in Profile Paperback – 10 Aug 2017 – Roger Scruton (Author)
I bought two copies this week. One for me and one for my local Labour MP.
The Tory party and this Tory government must challenge left wing fascism. The left can say what they like but when they attack a person’s right to express their views then we’re entering into very dangerous territory
We need legislation to protect our freedom of speech before the left destroy this as well
November 13, 2018
It would, though, be interesting to read you actually attempt “a more convincing explanation” for these currency movements, without referring to Brexit.
It would be quite a challenge.
Reply Not so. Its about interest rate differentials, stance of the Central Bank. bond preferences amongst investors etc
November 13, 2018
The threat of a Venezuela type disaster with Corbyn ad McDonnell is also material, and some funds are cutting or hedging UK exposure due to this.
November 13, 2018
I noticed that at midnight last night the BBC’s TV web linked News Report was still showing the Pound as having fallen against the Euro by 0.2%.
They failed to mention however that it was well up on the end of October and August, and that ‘0.2% down’ was the 2pm figure. By Market close it was up 0.17% on against the Euro on the day
This so called ‘volatility’, (in fact the movements were miniscule and well with an unremarkable Monday range in which the Dollar was rising so sharply) was a pack of lies anyway.
The Pound was the least changed amongst Dollar the Euro and the Sterling on the day.
Despite sterling also being within 2% of its 2 1/2 year high against the Euro, the BBC Website also called it ‘fragile’ and ascribed its’ rise on the day following its’ original reports of a miniscule fall as being attributable to Barnier making positive noises. about a ‘deal’.
Some commentators use the saying ‘you couldn’t make it up’.
But the BBC usually does.
November 13, 2018
People who moan about the value of the pound falling never explain why they think it’s a bad thing. Some countries (Switzerland, Japan) are desperate to have the value of their currencies fall, it is not a simple case of a low value being bad.
November 13, 2018
It’s nice to see Kate Hoey in an article today attacking the Irish government and the Irish PM’s hypocrisy on the UK-EU border issue
The arrogance of the Irish PM and his coercion of the fool May using EU support is beyond belief
I cannot believe that the UK is being held to ransom by a government and a nation’s political class as inept as the Irish one. Even the Irish people despise their own politicians
How long do we have to tolerate this PM and her deliberate capitulation to the EU-Irish vested interest?
The May-Irish-EU triumvirate is holding the British people to ransom using the border issue
Leave won the vote and we expect the UK to leave the EU in its entirety.
It really is time to depose this grotesque opponent of democracy that is Theresa May
November 13, 2018
Dear Mr. Redwood,
My comment regarding yesterday’s post (12/11) has not yet been moderated and thus published. I do not understand why it has not been printed. It was submitted to you at 9:46am. It does not impugn anybody’s reputation, is not slanderous and is not rude or vulgar. It contains references to newspaper articles concerning what has been said individually or collectively by Ministers and these are easily verified.
I submit it again under today’s blog where it is not the pound that is being bounced around; it is the Cabinet being bounced into approving a truly awful plan.
The media is reporting that ‘Ministers voiced their Chequers plan doubts in July describing parts of Theresa May’s plan as ‘worrying, disappointing and concerning’ although as we know only two senior cabinet ministers had the courage to resign albeit two days later.
It was reported that the Prime Minister is expected to face anger from cabinet Brexiteers over her exit mechanism plans. Yet cabinet sources suggested that disgruntled ministers would stop short of quitting over the exit mechanism plan. Even if they were bounced into agreeing to the deal, May would still face a serious challenge getting it through the Commons.
Andrea Leadsom said ‘I am working towards getting a deal that does not require the UK to be stuck, trapped in a customs arrangement. I’m sticking in government to make sure that’s where we get to in the end.’
I suggest that some Cabinet ministers are hedging their bets and largely going along with the Prime Minister’s plan secretly hoping that backbench mp’s reject it in the meaningful vote thus doing their dirty work for them and at the same time preserving their precious ministerial careers.
November 13, 2018
If I may.
Not all of my posts get published either. It’s just the way it is. A voluntarily run blog by a working man with limited time.
Three tips –
– keep it short
– avoid links
– post as Lifelogic !
November 13, 2018
Alan Joyce
“My comment regarding yesterday’s post (12/11) has not yet been moderated and thus published. I do not understand why it has not been printed.”
Alan, it’s almost certainly because Mr Redwood is engaged with his work. I note he is in the news today regarding an interview with 5 live. It is therefore likely he isn’t in position right now to manage this website.
Tip: if there’s a problem with what you post, normally it will be; a) edited where possible, or b) will get pulled.
I’ve had both happen to mine in the past, but never seen any evidence of biased moderation.
November 13, 2018
The markets move to media propaganda. Like an emotional hysterical woman.
November 13, 2018
If their was a coup now that would give us leverage against the EU. We could just fake one to make us look good like Erdogan did. Why not we fake everything else?
November 13, 2018
Every Forex trader will tell you John. The markets are irrational. If they weren’t we would all be rich.
November 13, 2018
The likely follow on to May’s inevitable defeat on Brexit, will be her resignation.
The Conservatives and DUP will agree an interim PM to take charge whilst a new Tory leader is elected.
Every pressure, from all sides, must be placed on May, when she is defeated, to face up to her duty to the Nation, to stand down.
If she won’t immediately do the decent thing and resign, she must be politically harried out of office.
November 13, 2018
Ah, but May is on the threshold of a deal, they now report. After her carefully engineered drama she will present Cabinet with a deal that has already been agreed with Brussels, according to Boris. The stage managed negotiations and high drama have been so completely transparent. Do Theresa May’s advisers really think that we don’t see through all of the charade? Why do they take us for such fools? Mr Redwood, I cannot believe you are proud of your Party and its leader. There has to be stand made by honourable MPs to prevent this huge betrayal by May. You would have tremendous support from those in the electorate who want democracy upheld. However, what little patience they have left will dissipate over the next few days and turn into very real anger and thirst for revenge at the ballot box, if you permit May to deceive you and us again.
November 13, 2018
If Britain doesn’t get the Brexit it voted for – i.e. to leave the E.U. with no mention of, but only if we can get a good deal – I am seriously considering withholding my TV licence fee – there is little else I can do and if enough of us do the same, a very strong message will be sent. I have no intention of paying to listen to biased reporting.
November 14, 2018
Just do not watch live broadcasts or iplayer.
Consume other material, in a way which is compliant with the law. Use a search engine to find out more.
Then you do not need to fund the BBC.
Ask for a refund as well.
If you are unable to do this you do not deserve democracy.
November 13, 2018
Richard Littlejohn surely has it exactly right today:-
The only way forward is for Theresa May to fall off her kitten heels, sooner rather than later. After two wasted years of dissembling, betrayal, incompetence and downright surrender to Brussels, Mother Theresa deserves nothing less than an ignominious departure.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6382623/RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-Joy-Brexit.html
All her other non Brexit agendas are hugely misguided and wrong headed too. She is appointed and still retains hopeless remainer & ‘tax to death’ Hammond and she is massive electoral liability who threw an election through gross incompetence. She has also failed to prepare for a likely no deal Brexit yet further gross negligence.
So why on earth is she still at no 10?
November 13, 2018
Because they can’t agree on anyone else
November 13, 2018
Why is she still at No 10, you ask. The globalists/deep state want her there at all costs and they will stop at nothing to achieve their ends viz the preservation of the EU project and the total humiliation and defeat of the UK for daring to attempt to leave.
November 13, 2018
When TM lost the majority at the last election two thing were clear. First, she wasn’t embarrassed enough to resign. Two, the Conservative party had no will to remove her. These two things continue to apply.
November 13, 2018
Head Girl has tripped over umpteen daisies in the egg and spoon raced despite all the other competitors being tied to each other in a combined three-legged egg and spoon race.
Even then she got to the finish line first and found a Brexit deckchair to get tangled up in (cue what-do-I-do clown-face) and then had the chutzpah to do a robotic jig with a silly smile on her face at the end of it… just as the Corbyn Kid broke the tape with his chest.
D’oh ! *slaps forehead*
This really is how those of us outside the Bubble see it.
The main Tory party really is an officer class whacking its working class support about the face with brown gloves, isn’t it ? I realise now that Andy and Newmania are the true modern Tories.
John Redwood certainly isn’t. And that’s meant to be a complement.
November 13, 2018
So the UK is planning to follow the orange one and leave UNESCO …
Reply, No, I don’t think that is true
November 13, 2018
Here you go, JR, this is why Theresa May warmly welcomes the false pretext offered by the fictitious “problem” of the Irish land border, which is the route for a trickle of goods exports which are worth about 0.1% of our GDP, but which she will use to try to keep 100% of our economy under EU control for the benefit or maybe only the convenience of the 6% of UK businesses which export about 12 % of our GDP to the rest of the EU:
http://www.cityam.com/269020/business-has-spoken-uk-cannot-afford-no-deal-brexit
“Business has spoken: The UK cannot afford a no-deal Brexit”
The question is whether there are enough decent Tory MPs to stop her.
November 13, 2018
Denis
Which what I have been saying for sometime. This is going to be a business BREXIT i.e. No BREXIT at all.
Typical short sightedness.
November 13, 2018
Uncertainty has been weighing on the pound. If we get an end to brexit uncertainty the spotlight may well shift back to the euro’s structural flaws.
November 13, 2018
I agree. The pound does bounce around.
It bounces around according to events. It always has.
It bounced down more than 10% against the Euro since the referendum – much of it on day one.
The problem Brexiteers have is this.
For 30+ years they assigned blame for most of our economic ills to the EU.
Not just economic either – all ills.
Now we are are experiencing similar problems, but worse, they deny Brexit has anything to do with it.
Nobody believes you.
Reply The pound is higher today than at its weakest when in the EU with no plan to leave. I have always said a small part of the long fall in sterling since 2015 occurred immediately after the vote and was related to the vote. The rest of the fall has nothing to do with Brexit and has not gone as far as at the worst prior to the vote.
November 13, 2018
Your claim brexiteers assigned blame for the economic ills of UK onto the EU is not correct.
That blame was assigned to our own useless governments.
With their high tax, high spend, high waste policies. And for agreeing to damaging fishing policies, selling gold at low prices, giving back our rebate without any benefit, the ERM disaster and the way Brown dealt with the financial crisis.
November 13, 2018
“For 30+ years they assigned blame for most of our economic ills to the EU.”
I must correct you.
When the establishment failed to eject violent criminals and terrorists it TOLD us that it was down to the EU.
OK.
So we told them time and time and time again that we were unhappy. They did not listen. We changed our voting patterns.
Brexit did not come out of the blue. It was years in the making but you weren’t listening.
WELL YOU’RE LISTENING NOW !
Get your house on the market and your money out of the country.
Corbyn’s coming.
November 13, 2018
Andy
What, no mention of nasty pensioners ?
November 13, 2018
As the USA has the strongest economy at the moment, therefore, it has the strongest currency, the dollar goes up on the back of that but did not go into orbit, sanctions on China and elsewhere kept the dollar under control while the euro and the pound have gone down in tandem against the dollar or near tandem on talks over the withdrawal agreement.
Now the withdrawal agreement is not an important document and does need to be signed, it a document that was put in as an afterthought in 2009 by the EU in case any country wished to leave the EU, it was left up to the country leaving the EU, whether they would like to use the document or just leave right away or at a time of their choosing, it has no legal standing, even after entering into using the document you can still leave at any time without signing, only if the two sides agree on something or say they agree on, a, b, c, d, e but do not agree on f, g, h, so, therefore, the withdrawal agreement is always 100 per cent completed, even if two sides only agree on one thing, the document only becomes legally binding once signed by the two sides of what is in the document, it could say, you wash my window on Monday and we will wash yours on Friday. That all it is.
Both sides are trying to blow the document up into something it is not, it supposed to be about civil and citizen rights and things like that not about borders, trade and things that take years to sort out.
Trade talks start when the UK has its seat back at the WTO, not only with the EU but the rest of the world and the border will be sorted out over time at a later date, these sort of thing take years and years to a agree on.
There is a lot border despite all around the world this one in Ireland won’t be only one.
November 13, 2018
Why would trade talks take years? Liam Fox all but said he could do it in an afternoon.
I’m sure he will finish trade talks with the US quickly. It does not take this Tory government long to completely capitulate.
You’ll all be eating Frankenstein foods and will have your NHS healthcare provided in association with Coca Cola by the end of 2022. (I have private cover – good luck to those of you who don’t).
November 13, 2018
Andy
Lol you are hysterical, in both senses of the world
You nasty old people will have to have private healthcare …. I’m not worried says Andy Ive got private healthcare …. Lol you are a self parody
November 13, 2018
Agreed.
November 13, 2018
Off-topic, here is my offering for thi week’s Maidenhead Advertiser:
“Dear Sir
Years ago there was a story that in the opening session of the EU Parliament members had been told that their task was to represent the EU to their constituents, not the other way round as some may have thought.
I recall that now because it is becoming increasingly clear that our Prime Minister Theresa May does not see her role in the Brexit negotiations as being on our side working for our national interests, but more to act as a kind of intermediary to strike compromises between the interests of the UK and those of the EU.
And especially the national interests of the Irish Republic, which stands to lose a greater fraction of its GDP from a badly managed Brexit than any other country, including the UK, but which by its obduracy over the border with Northern Ireland may well foolishly bring that fate down upon its own head.
For sure we would have to be stupid to think that the Irish government would ever willingly allow us to free ourselves from the rules of the EU Customs Union and the EU Single Market once we had agreed to remain bound by them on a “temporary” basis, as Theresa May now wants us to do.
Yours etc”
November 13, 2018
https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/1113/1010667-brexit-deal/
“Exclusive: EU and UK negotiators agree text for Irish border”
“… a temporary UK-wide customs arrangement, with specific provisions for Northern Ireland, which go deeper on the issue of customs and alignment on the rules of the single market than for the rest of the UK.”
“It is understood the text has an agreed review mechanism.”
Which “review mechanism” will of course effectively preserve the veto which the government of the Irish Republic has been threatening to exercise for the past year if it does not get what it wants – from November 26th 2017:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ireland-border-brexit-latest-theresa-may-customs-union-phil-hogan-northern-a8076271.html
“Brexit: Remain in customs union and single market to solve border issue, Ireland’s European commissioner tells May”
“Theresa May is facing fresh pressure to change course over plans for the Northern Irish border after Brexit as Ireland’s EU commissioner stepped up threats to veto trade talks.”
“Mr Hogan, the EU’s agriculture commissioner, said Ireland would “play tough to the end” over the border issue, and said it was a “very simple fact” that “if the UK or Northern Ireland remained in the EU customs union, or better still the single market, there would be no border issue”.”
Well, here we are supposedly at that end, the “endgame” we are told, and the Irish government is just as obdurate as it was a year ago, and Theresa May has been only too happy to cave in to its demands.
To quote from the DUP MP Sammy Wilson today:
“There is an irony here: no one has compromised the Government’s position more than the Government themselves in these negotiations. They willingly accepted the EU agenda and timetable and sequencing for the negotiations. They uncritically accepted the nonsense about a backstop for Northern Ireland – a problem that does not exist and which can be dealt with by the existing trade facilitation measures in place. And over the months we have had Ministers or Departments leaking economic reports that have been used against the Government in these negotiations.”
November 13, 2018
Upon rumors of a Brexit deal among negotiators, I see that the GBP rises 0.81% to the euro and 1.45% to the US$.
Just a pure coincidence? 🙂 🙂
November 13, 2018
No. If it was announced tomorrow that £ would join the euro next week at €2=£1 the £ would rise. That doesn’t make it a good idea.
November 14, 2018
@Richard1: If you’re harbouring desires to join the euro, wouldn’t €1=£2 might be more future proof? After all, in the last 40+ years, the £ has already lost half its value against the basket of currencies which now together make up the euro.
November 13, 2018
Brexit all agreed apparently – now we may see the real defenders of the realm in parliament.
November 13, 2018
So May is bringing ministers in one by one to persuade them to put the EU before country, party and democracy.
Will the Cabinet find the strength to do the right thing? If not it is down to you and other good men and true.
November 13, 2018
Wonder if we will get an apology from Nick Clegg and those on here now that Merkel has spoken about the forthcoming EU Armed Forces.
Cheered to the rafters in the EU Parliament.
Denied for years by Europhiles yet implicit in the 5 Presidents Report.
Another plot revealed.
November 13, 2018
It seems from press reports that the Brexiteers are queuing up to whine about their Brexit! Whine, this. Moan, that. Whinge, the other.
Suck it up. You voted for it. And now you get to own it. Bye bye Tories, bye bye.
November 13, 2018
Oh look Andy is back crying, whinging and moaning still
Wages rising, job vacancies rising, FDI rising, exports rising ….. but still Andy wants to be a member of the EU Empire, he can’t wait for his kids to be conscripted into the EU army and to become part of the glorious Soviet EU state
November 13, 2018
Despite the fiasco of the May govt the Tories are c 5% ahead in the polls. Meanwhile the two parties clearly committed to reversing Brexit by whatever means, the Lib Dems and the SNP, have about 10% between them.
November 14, 2018
It is not what was voted for.
People like you have hijacked the leaving process.
November 14, 2018
Manicunus. Tomorrow?? How about tonight?? This country is done for. Slaves to the EU and our own treacherous politicians.
November 13, 2018
If we have a second referendum and we vote leave what then?
It seems to me that those calling for a new vote only see us staying. If we continue to vote for freedom do we just leave or do we have to vote again?
Little is said about the consequences of a second leave vote but I wonder if we wouldn’t actually get the completely free trade we are seeking without worrying about the Irish border if the EU saw we were serious.
If the above is feasible then why don’t we just indicate we are serious by walking away?
November 13, 2018
JR,
Very interesting theory/hypothesis you have brought forward.
I am not sure the market would agree?
November 13, 2018
hans
Yet as always we get the benefit of your “wisdom” without a scrap of evidence, analysis or set of reasons
Your posts just have no purpose mate.
Must try harder 1/10
November 14, 2018
Oh and heres another blow to your economics expertise ( If i would you Id ask the LSE for my money back)
German GDP growth figures have today been released for the third quarter this year. Official numbers now show that the German economy actually contracted by 0.2% in the third quarter, 0.6% below what was forecast. Meanwhile, Italy is completely stagnant. This latest release comfortably puts the UK at the top of the EU ‘big four’ growth league…
November 13, 2018
So we have a deal between the liar that is May and the EU autocrat that is Merkel.
Well done to the Tory party for selling your country down the river. You must be so proud of yourselves
Betrayal? It goes beyond betrayal. It is nothing less than a rejection of everything we are and everything we stand for
A pathetic rabble on both sides of the Commons
November 13, 2018
At the end of 2008 and long before The Referendum, the Pound stood poorly against the Euro at €0.98, 98 cents per £1. By the end of 2015 it had risen and stood at €0.70 = 70 cents per £1. Today it stands at €0.87=87 cents per £1.
So, “despite “Brexit” ” the Pound is worth more today v the Euro than it was in 2008.
As the Americans say, “Go figure”.
Foreign Exchange markets control exchange rates, Governments just interfere with them.
November 13, 2018
Sorry folks, I have made an error. My graphs were based on EUR/GBP rates and I have here written them as £vEuro.
Therefore it should read 1 Euro = 98p and 1 Euro = 70p and finally 1 Euro = 87p. Today the Euro was worth 87p BUT 10 years ago it was worth 98p. Phew.
November 13, 2018
May must go
Nobody is going to accept this crap deal
On what planet do the people in the bubble think they will get away with this?
Tell her to resign and quickly
November 13, 2018
Obviously if a fake deal is implemented then the pound will climb and our exports will collapse causing the fake brexit recession.
November 14, 2018
UK exports and imports are not hugely price-elastic. UK imports and exports are largely intracompany it is often suggested, although evidence is hard to find. Hence a higher or lower Pound is much less influential than the trade bloc within which this trade takes place (with trade bloc I mean for instance NAFTAplus the USFTAs or EU plkus the EU FTAs. If one cannot be in either, imports will continue but exports struggle. Given that much of UK’s exportvolume of non-commodity goods is produced by foreign-controlled MNCs having invested in the UK for its location within EU trade boundaries, they will have to do the sums and pending that, defer investment. So I would not worry too much about the Pound rebounding a little. Besides, it is unlikely we will get to see the permanent arrangements before the end of next year, if at all.
November 13, 2018
It looks as if the Document isn’t going to be discussed by the Cabinet if the Control Freak is having them in one by one and then allowing them to vote on it tomorrow. And when are they supposed to read it properly and think about it in consultation with others? It is Chequers in a different form.
Last time a PM had the Cabinet in one by one, they told her to resign when they shouldn’t have. This time it will be the other way round.
I wonder who will be in the room with her. Sir Mark Sedwill? Mr Lidington? Mr Robbins? The Chief Whip? She never fails to stoop lower than she already has.
November 13, 2018
Rose
Tories dont generally read agreements that they sign…. Ask Ken Clarke about Maastricht
November 14, 2018
According to KC Lisbon was “a tidying up arrangement”.
November 13, 2018
What’s the point in talking about the pound bouncing around when we are going to give 39 billions of them away?
November 13, 2018
Tomorrow, May will claim the Cabinet have been ‘shown the details’ of the crooked deal she has cooked up, and have ‘agreed’.
One by one they will gradually admit they were not shown any text, as they had thought, but a civil servant’s selective summary of some features, dressed up to look like a treaty text.
The most toxic parts will be omitted from the version shown to them. They will be forced to speed-read the summary on the spot, and will be given no copy.
May will simply give them bland oral assurances that their demurs have been addressed. They will be given no opportunity to agree or disagree.
November 14, 2018
That would be a good way to buy some time. Good politics, what is wrong with that. Politicians wit spine tend to have short careers and mrs May seems quite supple so she may well outlive her opponents and colleagues. Anyway, by becoming cabinet members they implicitly signed up for whatever the PM would choose. How many will quit today? I guess Mrs Leadsom faces a difficult choice because her job may be to discipline the people she publicly agrees with. My guess: if this is something Brussels can live with, it will be defeated by ERG/DUP joining the opposition. Following that May will not step down but do a deal with Labour (I guess the deal contains very little of the issues Corbyn cares about like being able to nationalise utilities -lots of EU countries have state-owned utilities- and lEU abour protections plus other regulations are not controversial with the Socialists. table it again and if necessary split the Conservative Party. That would be the patriotic thing to do, in my humble opinion of course. I have no idea if this deal is good for the EU. Guess only the Irish have every detail and of course France, Germany and the Benelux countries should be quite well informed.
November 14, 2018
Manicunus. Tomorrow?? How about tonight?? This country is done for. Slaves to the EU and our own treacherous politicians.
November 13, 2018
Oh my giddy aunt !
What a right royal mess. ‘if’ the news is anything to go by right now it looks like Theresa May is at last agreeing the betrayal we all said was coming.
However, the news also reports nearly every political side as saying she’s going to come unstuck at home. Quite a number of them saying she will be ‘asked to resign’
Personally I think she should be given the bum’s rush straight out of the front door of number ten, and with it slammed behind her. If she wasn’t a woman I’d be recommending defenestration.
IDS is reported to have commented that he thinks the government will collapse. We can only hope.
I expect May to come to political grief, an election to be called where I shall be voting for Corbyn just for revenge.
Theresa May is certainly right up there amongst infamy of the most treacherous rogue
PM’s this country has ever had. I’d estimate second only to Blair.
On the upside – the conservatives are finished and will never see power again, they might then reflect on the fact that when we said May must go immediately, we meant it.
November 14, 2018
Mr Redwood,
The current market view (actually, since the referendum) is that anything close to a no-deal brexit will be bad for the economy and either directly (speculative outflows) or via a policy response that would lead to fiscal and especially monetary easing, resulting in low short term rates (and possibly higher long term rates thus triggering a decline in bond prices) make Sterling less attractive as an investm,ent currency. On top of that there could be greater trade related BOP pressure. Anyway of course market opinions are not stable and certainly not uniform. But for the moment that seems to be the case and very few asset managers (especially leveraged ones) would like to be contrarian in such a chaotic situation. Once the outcome of the internal negotiations in the UK is known (especially if it is something irreversible , unlike EU membership), a more stable process of opinion formation may be in place. I guess that will not be poritive for Sterling, because the only irreversible outcome would be the rock bottom: a strict no deal. Anything else leaves and dies with changes in the balance of power within the Conservative Party until that entity becomes more unified or breaks up.
Reply The market must have discounted the rising probability of no Withdrawal Agreement.