The UK Treasury turns optimistic

Apparently the Treasury think we are going to be creating so many new jobs in the next few years we need to ensure we can invite in a large number of new workers without restriction. That must be a revised forecast,  based on a new optimism about Brexit.

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44 Comments

  1. libertarian
    Posted December 19, 2018 at 8:14 am | Permalink

    I take your point John

    However there are currently 800,000 unfilled jobs , we are on course to create 1.2 million new ones over the next couple of years. We face a skills shortage already . Our Education and apprenticeship schemes aren’t fit for purpose and we need to urgently start making our young people work ready. Construction is the most badly hit with 37% of vacancies in that sector. We also have a shortage of affordable housing and we aren’t going to fix that unless we have more people working in construction

    This government has failed miserably with this, hardly seeming too even be aware of the problem. Its spent most of its time attacking small business ( along with the EU) and then claiming credit for the jobs boom.

    If we aren’t going to have to rely on importing workers then we need to radically up the game on training and developing the indigenous workforce

    • fedupsoutherner
      Posted December 19, 2018 at 10:18 am | Permalink

      Agree Libertarian. We need to bring back free university and apprenticeships for real degrees and real jobs that will need to be filled. Not the micky mouse degrees that students go for these days and then end up in debt. Engineering, science, nursing, electricians, gas fitters etc. All the trades need help as it seems most of the young want to sit in front of a computer all day. It’s getting harder and harder to find really good trades people who know their trade inside out.

      • libertarian
        Posted December 19, 2018 at 3:56 pm | Permalink

        fedupsoutherner

        True except the third largest shortage is in Computing, IT and Digital

        So we aren’t producing enough people to do that either

      • a-tracy
        Posted December 20, 2018 at 12:10 pm | Permalink

        if we bought back free university for new graduates, what do we do about all those with 9% graduate taxes in England only! Do you just punish them for having a Conservative Government for the next 30 years?

    • a-tracy
      Posted December 19, 2018 at 11:45 am | Permalink

      Is this 800,000 throughout the UK? How many per region?

      I wonder how many young able-bodied men are unemployed in the London area between the age of 18-25? Are these skills shortages in construction throughout the UK or just London?

      There was an MP on the news the other night from the North East very aggravated and poking her finger at another MP saying unemployed in the North East is very high and people can’t find work, if Europeans can find work because they have networks recruiting them and finding them housing, why can’t we do the same to move people within the United Kingdom, if local unemployment and training is a problem and in Labour governed areas this is never improving then our Conservative government need to facilitate a recruiter and affordable accommodation finder with shared housing for teens from the North East. Once they are finished their training schemes they can take their skills and maybe set up their own businesses back in their hometowns.

      • libertarian
        Posted December 20, 2018 at 5:49 pm | Permalink

        a-tracy

        Yes that figure is unfilled jobs across the UK, all the figures by industry segment are UK wide

        Region by region differs obviously

        The national unemployment rate is 4.1% , in the North East its 5.4% in London its 4.7% in South East its 3.8%

    • ian wragg
      Posted December 19, 2018 at 12:21 pm | Permalink

      I think automation will fill the majority of new jobs. Many of the recent crop of new jobs have been Baristas and car cleaners, a purge of these is long overdue. That would free up labour for real jobs.
      The sooner we stop the taxpayer subsidising these city centre jobs mainly done by foreigners the better.

      • libertarian
        Posted December 19, 2018 at 9:19 pm | Permalink

        The industries with the largest skills shortages

        1 Construction

        2 Accounting/bookkeeping/tax

        3 IT and Digital

        4 Logistics

        5 Engineering

        • a-tracy
          Posted December 20, 2018 at 12:21 pm | Permalink

          Interesting, Which skill shortages in Logistics HGV class 1 etc or office based qualifications?

          Perhaps someone should ask that NE MP, as the MP for an area with high unemployment, what are you doing about ensuring your teenagers are studying the skills required for the largest skill shortage jobs, are they even aware of these jobs? Are the colleges and 6th forms aware that this is what is required by this Country?

          We could also ask those teens if there isn’t the work in your area are you prepared like those eastern European workers looking for work to move? Scotland Nicola tells us needs lots of new young workers, it’s only an hour to an hour and a half by train if they move for work.

      • Edward2
        Posted December 19, 2018 at 9:39 pm | Permalink

        And improve the figures for UK productivity which remainers constantly moan about.

    • Al
      Posted December 19, 2018 at 4:40 pm | Permalink

      It’s not just young people. I’d suggest recruiting from an overlooked sector: work returners. People of both genders who took a career break due to illness, family, etc. and despite having very good skills are now virtually unemployable simply due to their references having timed out. Following up on it was how I discovered many volunteering groups won’t give references to volunteers – both to avoid losing them as volunteers and because of perceived liability issues.

      I’ve recruited successfully from this group, but it seems many simply firms simply won’t hire them.

    • Rien Huizer
      Posted December 20, 2018 at 10:50 am | Permalink

      A Libertarian should be against all non-essential regulation (by the government that is) so why not open the immigration gates to anyone in the country who needs staff at an affordable price.

      A pragmatic libertarian myself, I understand nevertheless why democracies do not like their politicians to facilitate unrestricted immigration. Given the opportunity (and democracy does that) many would like to live in a closed shop, if that raises their living standards in the short run. So it makes sense to feed the closed shop beast just enough to keep it quiet, which means controlling libertarian instinct.

      • a-tracy
        Posted December 20, 2018 at 12:30 pm | Permalink

        most libertarians I know Rien do believe there should be free movement just not benefits for all, no tax credits, child tax credits, housing benefit, rebates, etc. unless they have been paying full stamp for five years. Or have lived here for sixteen years.

      • libertarian
        Posted December 20, 2018 at 5:52 pm | Permalink

        Rien

        There you go again making assumptions. You dont know what I’m for or against .

  2. jerry
    Posted December 19, 2018 at 9:01 am | Permalink

    “That must be a revised forecast”

    Or, because now we need an explicit immigration policy, just a realisation that successive govts have failed the UK when it came to Compulsory, Further and In-Work education. Nor is there any real signs of change from the DfES, many jobs do not need expensive ‘pieces of paper’ to prove ability, they need work bases and/or (job-release) vocational training.

    • libertarian
      Posted December 19, 2018 at 3:57 pm | Permalink

      Jerry

      Absolutely , I couldn’t agree more

  3. Alan Jutson
    Posted December 19, 2018 at 9:03 am | Permalink

    Amazing how the mood and argument can change to suit the circumstances, but not admit a change, because this time they put no figures against anything, so think they cannot be held to account.

    And then they wonder why they they are treated with utter contempt !

  4. Bryan Harris
    Posted December 19, 2018 at 9:09 am | Permalink

    That is to justify flooding the country with immigrants, and the signing of the UN Immigration pacts…

  5. Richard1
    Posted December 19, 2018 at 9:26 am | Permalink

    Indeed if mr carney is right that wto Brexit will lead to a -10% GDP slump & depression, a shortage of labour will hardly be a problem!

    • Bryan Harris
      Posted December 19, 2018 at 10:29 am | Permalink

      They want it all ways – clearly their scare stories do not match or tie up in any way

      • Jagman84
        Posted December 19, 2018 at 2:16 pm | Permalink

        There is an almost infinite number of lies about a subject, but only one truth. That’s why it is often so difficult to find the truth. When you do find it, hang on to it, as it is your life-raft in these turbulent times.

  6. Adam
    Posted December 19, 2018 at 9:37 am | Permalink

    Many of those who occupy HM Treasury cost us money but are worthless.

  7. Newmania
    Posted December 19, 2018 at 9:47 am | Permalink

    Funny I was wondering when you where going to make your mind up whether we had an employment miracle with buoyant wages, or an employment shortage and depressed wages due to those terrible foreigners.It seems to depend on the audience. It isn`t just the treasury , their work is backed by independent analysis and in any case I have no doubt some debating wizard will soon tell me I have no proof about what the future will look like and its only prediction. Quite seriously ,they usually do, and the really tragic thing is you can see the writers feel they have been ever so clever
    Word of the day : Despair

    Whilst we are attempting coherence are trade deals vital sources of growth ( as in Empire 2 deals with some atoll in the Pacific) or cumbersome pointless threats to sovereignty as in the largest deepest and most successful trading agreement in the world ever
    As for this fake news , it removes some costs and delays form the post leaving regularity checks (agriculture) and has been prefigured on numerous occasios , in that it is available to Turkey its hardly a grand achievement

    • Edward2
      Posted December 19, 2018 at 12:37 pm | Permalink

      If you were to look at those now making project fear predictions for the UK economy in the future you would find how hopelessly wrong these same bodies were a few years ago when they predicted doom if we dared to vote leave.
      Yet you still have faith in them.

    • libertarian
      Posted December 19, 2018 at 4:02 pm | Permalink

      Newmania

      Lol you usual flawed analysis I see . We have a skills shortage AND depressed wages due to using unskilled low paid workers to do jobs.

      Since the referendum workers in the hospitality sector have been leaving and going back to Eastern Europe. The result a 38% THIRTY EIGHT percent increase in hospitality pay.

      Give up commenting until you’ve learned to either think clearly or at least do some research

  8. Newmania
    Posted December 19, 2018 at 9:48 am | Permalink

    Sorry some of that is on the wrong thread

  9. rose
    Posted December 19, 2018 at 9:55 am | Permalink

    And the BBC, especially John Humphrys, are talking about HMG having promised to reduce immigration to tens of thousands when they never did: they promised to reduce net immigration only. When you look at the figures for NINOs granted to EU and non EU immigrants alike, the figures are closer to a million. Those going out are very likely to be wholly self supporting, while those coming in are overwhelmingly not. So what is so outrageous about requiring a £30,000 salary to come in? The immigrant will still be a net drain on the tax payer if there is a family attached, and with the Government’s proposal to drop the definition of skilled down to the equivalent of one A level, the numbers can only go up now. As with Brino, this is largely being driven by foreign owned, foreign run big business who don’t give a damn abut our environment or resources or social cohesion etc ed

    • fedupsoutherner
      Posted December 19, 2018 at 10:21 am | Permalink

      Rose. Yes, and A levels can be bought on the internet by anyone interested. Just where are all those coming over from France in small boats going to get a job when they can’t hardly speak English? I find it utterly amazing that it is deemed a family on benefits needs £30,000 when most people dont’ earn anywhere near that amount in full time employment.

      • Helen Smith
        Posted December 20, 2018 at 6:35 pm | Permalink

        And that’s £30,000 tax free, how much would you have to earn to take £30,000 home.

    • a-tracy
      Posted December 19, 2018 at 11:48 am | Permalink

      Well there are less benefits in the form of working tax credits for under 25’s so their wages can be lower, if we have to top up wages for everyone over 25 on low pay plus pay their child benefits then the wages for immigrants with children and other dependents plus housing benefits needs to be higher or the benefits system needs a change and I was told several times on this blog we didn’t need Europes permission to do this. We could unilaterally make working and child tax credits unavailable for five years unless you have lived in the Country for sixteen years.

  10. Original Richard
    Posted December 19, 2018 at 10:14 am | Permalink

    The remainers’ have nothing to say about democracy, freedom or sovereignty. They do not intend to allow the general population to have any influence over their laws and taxes through the ballot box by knowing, electing and removing those who govern them.

    Their only argument is project fear directed at trade and the economy. A main campaigner for remain and now for Mrs. May’s treacherous Withdrawal Agreement, where we can never leave the EU is the CBI (Confederation of British Industry).

    The CBI membership is kept a secret so we have no way of knowing who are its supporters or from where it gets its funding (some does come from the EU). So we don’t even know if its major funders are British owned companies, or indeed if they have any business in the UK at all.

    Unsurprisingly they only represent the interests of corporates. They like the EU because they can :

    -Have influence over its decisions on laws and regulations – such as the infamous vacuum cleaner tests.
    – Move factories to different countries (even outside the EU) with EU loans and benefits like working credit which reduce their wage bills. Both from taxes levied on UK tax payers.
    – Move cheap workers around to keep their wage bills reduced rather than invest in new plant and technologies.
    – Pay their corporation tax in the country with the lowest rate (such as Ireland or Luxembourg) and not where their factories are located or from where most of their sales arises.
    – Make themselves exempt from prosecution and compensation claims in the EU – such as the German diesel testing emissions fraud, where, unlike in the USA, EU consumers have not been compensated.

  11. Everhopeful
    Posted December 19, 2018 at 10:53 am | Permalink

    Looks like the signing of the UN Migration Pact has brought down the Belgium govt!!

    • ian wragg
      Posted December 19, 2018 at 12:30 pm | Permalink

      and so it should, it also looks like the (French ed) will get a referendum on EU membership after mass protests.
      I think we will have to don yellow vests if the cretins in Westminster try to rob us of our Brexit.

    • cosmic
      Posted December 19, 2018 at 2:19 pm | Permalink

      Whether that should be signed is a ripe subject for robust parliamentary debate, or better a referendum, if ever there was one.

      • L Jones
        Posted December 19, 2018 at 5:09 pm | Permalink

        There is a petition (232698) running till May 2019 – ”The UK should not agree the UN’s Global Compact for Migration” – with over 120,000 having signed. At 10,000 the Government responded but the Petitions Committee considered its response ”did not directly address the request of petition” and requested a revised one.
        Where to now?

    • Mark
      Posted December 20, 2018 at 2:05 am | Permalink

      It is a disgrace that the UK has apparently signed this with no debate – not even in Westminster Hall, despite the petition. I read the full criticism by the French generals of Macron for doing the same thing: they accuse him of treason, while pointing out that it enshrines unfettered migration, and the problems that have already been caused in France with areas where the rule of law doesn’t operate.

  12. Lynn Atkinson
    Posted December 19, 2018 at 11:49 am | Permalink

    I can’t wait to tell A. Campbell – who is looking decidedly off colour or as I call it ‘like a loser’ which is an honest state in his case!

  13. Ron Olden
    Posted December 19, 2018 at 12:14 pm | Permalink

    As I understood it the proposal is to ‘scrap the current cap on the number of skilled workers such as doctors or engineers’.

    At the moment only migration from the EU itself is uncapped.

    The proposal has nothing so with economic forecasts. No forecast is required. It’s market led solution, which can only work to the benefit of the UK.

    These skilled people are only going to come if there’s an unfilled skilled job here for them to fill, and the £30,000 earnings minima will ensure that they’re not claiming benefits and paying fair amount of tax and NIC

    In any case they still have to apply for a Five Year Visa, as do the seasonal workers allowed for in the One Year temporary visa proposal. (I’d make it 9 months).

    So if there’s no job, and/or we don’t want them, they won’t get the visa.

  14. NigelE
    Posted December 19, 2018 at 1:16 pm | Permalink

    I spotted a report on a DT news feed today that had the Treasury claiming that £36b of the £39b in the WA was owed anyway for outstanding commitments. You and many here, hold a counter view – as does the HoL. I have never seen an itemised list of these commitments. Does one exist? Perhaps you could address in a future post?

    One other point is that the list should identify what is due on exit from the EU, and what would be owed in future years (I’ve seen mention of pension liabilities and loan defaults for example.) If the EU want up front payments, then we should be calculating DCF values for all future liabilities. Alternatively – and probably a better approach, we should just pay future payments as, when and if they ever are realised.

    p.s. the news feed was also still obsessing about aviation ‘problems’ despite the Transport Ministry announcements.

    • Jane Graham
      Posted December 20, 2018 at 8:33 am | Permalink

      I don’t think British taxpayers should even pay ex EU staff pensions. We have been told we are not legally liable but May and others say we are morally for these, but why? The EU staff are employed by the EU, and in that role say they will put the EU before their own countries, even after retirement and some say the pensions are dependent on them doing so. The EU has stated

      The EU has been taking contributions from the staff’s salaries at up to 13.75% and putting these deductions into an EU Pension Fund, although MEPs (I do not know about other staff) are about to wind up their fund and can or have moved to a non-contributory scheme. I have tried to find out if the government is aware of this, one would hope so but I am not confident most do, the only comments I can find are from UKIP MEPs (Batten) who has queried this in the EU parliament.

      Surely when British taxpayers are having their pensions increased by up to 6 years without notice, our government should not be paying undue pensions or at least first getting a refund of the monies paid in, with interest or investment income added.

      https://gerardbattenmep.co.uk/2017/11/30/mep-pension-fund-why-the-eu-wants-our-50-billion-they-are-taking-the-british-tax-payers-for-mugs/
      “It was clearly stated that, ‘the legal obligation to pay the pension of MEPs and Parliament staff falls on the European Union and not the Member States’. Britain has no legal obligationto pay the pensions of ex-MEPs.”

  15. Edwardm
    Posted December 19, 2018 at 2:04 pm | Permalink

    I am glad that the treasury is showing a glimmer of optimism.
    However I will just point out that British people made unemployed in their 50’s can often not get jobs. We often don’t show up on statistics as we were prevented from registering as unemployed because we didn’t qualify for benefits. (The web portal has recently changed and it may now be possible – too late for me as I’ve given up searching after 5 years). In addition to myself I know of 2 well qualified people in the STEM subjects who cannot get work.
    Instead the treasury and the government needs to put British people first and not last, ensure we can get jobs rather than welcome in more immigrants.

    • Alison
      Posted December 19, 2018 at 5:21 pm | Permalink

      Edwardm – last para, Treasury & govt need to put British people first. They do.

      I think voters also should put British people first.
      (I’d add, it is in their, our interests to do so.)

  16. Cheshire Girl
    Posted December 19, 2018 at 5:27 pm | Permalink

    Im not sure I like the ‘No Restriction’ bit. Surely, nothing can be unlimited.

  17. margaret
    Posted December 19, 2018 at 7:55 pm | Permalink

    John , you don’t think they really are bright enough to connect a few different variables to any reasonable conclusion do you?

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    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, and graduated from Magdalen College Oxford. He is a Distinguished fellow of All Souls, Oxford. A businessman by background, he has set up an investment management business, was both executive and non executive chairman of a quoted industrial PLC, and chaired a manufacturing company with factories in Birmingham, Chicago, India and China. He is the MP for Wokingham, first elected in 1987.

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