Cabinet must get on with our departure on April 12. There is a clear majority of Conservative MPs against any delay. So offer a free trade deal and leave. A fourth vote may not be allowed and is unlikely to give a different answer.
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April 1, 2019
Oh but John, No 10 put David Gauke on TV over the weekend to say he’d resign if that happened and we can’t have that !
Odd that some MPs think anyone could care less if they lost their jobs – other than other MPs of course as the grieving from all side over Dominic Grieve shows. A good article in Spiked on that.
April 1, 2019
The Spartans need to start throwing a spanner in the works if Remain think they can start taking liberties.
Steve Baker has suggested a no confidence motion is already āon the tableā.
If WTO has been sidelined then it is up to the Spartans to ruin all the bad alternatives. The Spartans have been rock solid so far. Small numbers, big impact.
April 1, 2019
After the four votes today none of the motions before Parliament today succeeded. So May cannot really threaten a softer Brexit now. A fourth run at the Withdrawal/Surrender Agreement therefore has even less chance of getting through.
Pressure now shifts to Remain.
Leave sit tight and run the clock down. Plans to cooperate in a Labour no confidence vote can be shelved.
Delay or exit on the 12th April.
April 1, 2019
As pointed out by James Forsyth of the spectator the Spartans has a plan.
April 2, 2019
It’s time we 17.4 million thickos were offere cabinet seats
April 2, 2019
My current conservative MP has been voting like a lib Dem. He even put out a tweet defending himself… You should see the many replies promising not to vote for him.
April 1, 2019
“Odd that some MPs think anyone could care less if they lost their job”
They do by and large have some very strange ideas indeed…
After the latest round of votes (No, No, No, No — unsurprisingly!), SNP’s Westminster leader Ian Blackford said it was “crystal clear that our votes in this house are disrespected”.
Welcome to the 17.4 Million Club, Ian. Now you know what it feels it, too.
April 2, 2019
Julie, They dish it out, but they can’t take it.
April 1, 2019
Indeed. Please can someone slowly explain this reality to Theresa, Hammond and the many dopy & dire remainers who surround them.
This is now the only way to respect the referendum, rescue the country, the Conservative Party and avoid Corbyn. May herself will even be seen in a slightly less dire light. She could pretend it was her plan all along!
Then we need a sensible PM who cuts taxes, has a bonfire of red tape, cancels HS2, kills all the expensive by design energy policies, gets some real deterrents into the criminal justice system, kills all the soft loans for worthless degrees, relaxes planning, gets some real competition in banking, fires the half of the state sector that do nothing or positive harm, ….. the UK will then boom.
Give people freedom and choice, and let them spend their own money for a change. Governments almost never know best.
April 2, 2019
Lifelogic, That list sounds like the UKIP manifesto. You know, the one the Tories would have if they were actually . . . . well . . . . Tories.
April 1, 2019
Sir JR,
A free trade deal will not solve the issues with the rest of the World, where the Eu has more than 40 deals with over 70 countries, we will with a free trade deal alone be at a major disadvantage with the rest of the World from the beginning, as 80% of our trade is already free trade
April 1, 2019
Yet Japan for example, sold loads of goods into Europe and the UK for over 40 years before very recently concluding a trade deal with the EU.
April 1, 2019
Nonsense. DIT is ready: http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2019/03/17/i-see-no-reason-for-a-delay-in-brexit/#comment-1004147
April 1, 2019
This has been repeatedly discussed on this blog and elsewhere. It is clear all these deals can be novated to the UK upon confirmation of both parties. Several have expressly confirmed they will be and none have objected – they have no reason to do so. This one is a red herring.
April 2, 2019
Dear hans
Oh dear oh dear , the EU HAS NOT got any kind of deal with any of the worlds top 6 economies ( 7 when we leave) They have a deal with Japan only and thats only just coming into force . USA, China , India Brazil, Canada, UK nope, no deal.
There are 195 countries in the world and we can openly trade with all of them apart from about 5 who are under sanctions.
I’d ask for your money back from LSE as you learned nothing about business and trade on your economics course
April 2, 2019
libertarian
“, the EU HAS NOT got any kind of deal with any of the worlds top 6 economies ( 7 when we leave) ”
The ten largest trading partners of the European Union are the United States, China, Switzerland, Russia, Turkey, Japan, Norway, South Korea and India
April 2, 2019
Hans, You seem to be misinformed (again). The EU’s RTAs, TRQs and MRAs modify the tariffs and NTBs in a quite minor way. They are not necessary to make use of the global WTO framework of rules. Moreover, since the UK will set different tariffs to the EU, many of the EU deals will be irrelevant. On top of that many of the EU deals are with quite small economies such as the Faroes.
April 1, 2019
Please. Either disobey the referendum result or Remain.
—-
So knife crime is to be blamed on everyone else but the criminal. It is not a ‘disease’. How stupid ! It’s a result of decades of soft justice and the diminution of both marriage and fathers – now firmed up Tory policy.
The worst PM in our history.
April 1, 2019
ā¦ a result of decades of soft justice and the diminution of both marriage and fathers ā¦
I could not agree more, Ginty!
April 2, 2019
Poor discipline amongst young children is becoming a bigger and bigger problem but no-one wants to accept the reasons. It is certainly not austerity my family were not wealthy but discipline from my parents and all my aunts and uncles to their children was strong, firm and fair. Yesterday I read that even the youngest children are being excluded from primary schools because the teachers can’t cope with their poor behaviour and they disrupt the education of too many other children. The Labour MP says the government isn’t doing enough yet next week Timpson’s review of the reasons for exclusion is due, can’t she just wait for the investigation the government (who isn’t doing anything!) has done. This sort of petty politicking gets right up my nose many of these schools have Labour governors and are in Labour local council controlled areas. We pay so many single parents to raise their children and not to have to work outside of the home and so many poor double parent parenting skills are ignored, we should train these mothers and fathers and hold them responsible and that’s where I’d start compulsory parent skills training for the second offence excluded pupils of primary age children and try to nip this in the bud.
April 1, 2019
JR: “A fourth vote may not be allowed and is unlikely to give a different answer.”
It seems Mrs May can ride rough shod over all and any Parliamentary conventions. A third vote of her pet treaty was supposed to be disallowed, but somehow the Speaker allowed it.
I was interested to hear Bill Cash’s contribution to the house the other day, suggesting that Theresa May may have acted outside the constituted authority of her office.
It really is time your rabble got rid of her.
April 1, 2019
It seems possible that on April 10th the EU Council will only agree to an extension if the U.K.:
a. Commits to holding elections for the European Parliament
b. Commits to keep paying during the extension
c. Commits to the Withdrawal Agreement, including the backstop, or equivalent.
And the extension on offer will be until the end of 2020.
On April 11th, the House of Commons, will be presented with MV4. Or will it be MV5 by then?
I fear that the forces against Brexit will coalesce. In particular there will be more Labour rebels.
Conservative Brexit supporters must stand firm with the DUP and get us out.
April 1, 2019
I can smell your panic! The case for Brexit has fallen apart – no frictionless trade with the EU, no third countries queueing up to offer us great new deals, just harsh reality. It’s over. You lost Brexit.
April 1, 2019
…and perhaps having a home Secretary five years back who was against stop and search.
April 1, 2019
That was a reply to Ginty, it may have gone on the wrong place.
April 1, 2019
I think your sense of smell is letting you down.
The whiff that you’re aware of is not fear it is despair. The despair of the majority of the electorate over the death of democracy in our Country, and I say the majority because even many remainers are lamenting the behaviour of Parliament.
I shan’t be voting for the status quo again, whatever happens on 12th April.
The EU have won because killing National democracy in Europe was always their goal.
April 2, 2019
Geoff Travers, The harsh reality for you Remains is that most of the planet is outside the EU, so the case for Brexit is perfectly clear.
Moreover, a large number of Leaves never wanted a “deal” with the EU in the first place. Frankly if you think the EU can be trusted, you’ve not been paying attention for the last 47 years.
April 2, 2019
NickC
“Geoff Travers, The harsh reality for you Remains is that most of the planet is outside the EU, so the case for Brexit is perfectly clear.”
Not to me it isn’t. Can you explain?
April 1, 2019
Just off topic a bit, I worked in industry and have some experience of negotiation, in particular observing how really top sales negotiators handled large overseas government contracts. It was clear to me early on that Mrs May lacked the necessary skills (for example inter-personal) to be directly involved at all. However, what of the EU negotiators ? They have been very good, they’ve gained everything they wanted in the WA – the few very small compromises they appear to have made were no doubt planned well in advance, and approval by the EU 27 was completed in 30 minutes. However, they were guilty of overreach – Mrs May was so bad and so compliant that they pushed every single point to the limit (the money, the backstop, the oversight etc.) and they made the fatal flaw of thinking Mrs May could actually deliver it – something of a cultural failure on their part I think, an inability to fully judge her, I suppose they had no UK person on their team. So, ultimately, Barnier was very very good but he still failed because whatever happens now, even if the WA is approved or A50 is revoked, relations between UK and EU are poisoned for a generation.
April 2, 2019
Roy Grainger, That is a very astute comment. And it has been our history in the EU. It echoes Sir Con OāNeill, chief negotiator 1970-2, who said: “Swallow the lot, and swallow it now”.
It is indeed ironic that if the europhiles/Remains had been strong UK patriots, and less subservient to the EU than they were, the UK would have got a better deal from the EU and had more influence. Remains have brought this on themselves.
April 1, 2019
Sir John,
I don’t believe your wish will come true. It seems to me quite likely that the customs union idea will gain traction and that in turn will lead more of your colleagues to desert and support the WA (possibly with Lisa Nandy’s amendment in order to make it substantially different) for fear of something they consider to be worse. Are you a betting man? I would happily make a small wager on this.
April 1, 2019
Good morning
It all depends on what the EU decides. If they wish an extension then there shall be one. If not, then we are out. My guess, unless the PM gets her WA through, is that we are heading for another extension. The EU do not want to let us go that easily.
April 1, 2019
Exactly, our pathetic puppet of a PM āvil obey her ordersā.
April 1, 2019
And that is what it is all about. Not letting us go that easily.
For a long time I wished to believe that T May was ‘playing the long game’ in order to appease her beloved EU and to make it easier for them as we left. She would, with their collusion, make it seem as though leaving were fraught with fears and uncertainties and difficulties, not to mention expenses, that would make it clear to any other country contemplating dissent that it was to be discouraged and feared. Then – at the last moment – voila! We’d be free, but only after much trouble and strife, anguish and division. And there she would be – crushed and broken, but unbowed, having saved her country and delivered its expressed wish……
Who knows? Maybe that is exactly what she had in mind, then suddenly realised that they had snared her and she couldn’t escape or retreat and nor could she carry on without being heaped with scorn and opprobrium by the electorate – as she is now. But she couldn’t admit it either.
And – for my next fairy story – ”Pearls before the swine”…….
April 1, 2019
No more delay, I hope and pray. I still do not understand how it was that we were not OUT last Friday by law. How did Theresa manage to get the law changed, or didn’t she? Did the MPs just accept that she had asked for an extension and simply rolled over? Nigel Farage and his army were as much bemused as was I. Now Boris has come out clearly for No Deal. I trust that is the same with Rees-Mogg and the ERG group. Can the will of the people be stopped once more? The trouble is Theresa May herself. Will she back a No deal as the only way to deliver Brexit? Or has she been deceiving everyone, including herself, all the time?
April 1, 2019
Has he (Boris)? You never know where you are with Boris.
April 1, 2019
And every day this continues, merely show cases your governmentās incomoetance and Ministers individual weaknesses with voters hardening against you.
April 1, 2019
Of course. Not spoken to anyone who can comprehend the Governments complete surrender and incompetence and the lying opposition. What a choice!
April 1, 2019
Agreed. Just get on with it!
April 1, 2019
Is it known how much extra preparation for leaving will be done by 12th April? Given the Govt so against no deal and signalling a long extension, will this put off businesses preparing?
April 1, 2019
Hear! Hear!
I’m pinning my hopes on the “now or never” argument winning through — enough is enough.
Time to batten down the hatches and dig out the umbrellas, in preparation for a renewed torrent of Project BS about to hit us over the next two weeks via every available channel… We ain’t seen nothing yet!
April 1, 2019
Parliament put the dirty draft through a cycle of three Washes
It remains stained, rotten & rusty
North Folk don’t need another Wash
The English Channel keeps us clean
Tell Theresa to return her rusty cycle to where it came from
We are clean in favour of Brexit freedom
April 1, 2019
British Politics is at a crossroads, this weak divided Government is unable to implement the vote to leave and all the legislation voted through by Parliament. They are failing the people.
Why is this? Put simply, MP’s of different political groups all want different outcomes to what appeared to be a simple choice, remain or leave.
Within Cabinet the greater number of MP’s voted to remain and they wish to exert their will over that of the electorate.
Right from the time David Cameron was sent home from Brussels with his tail between his legs, the Commission with its un-elected Presidents have been determined we shall not leave and certainly not on favourable terms.
Despite all the fine speeches by Theresa May we have ended up with her attempting three times to bully her Conservatives MP’s into accepting the diabolical Withdrawal Agreement which many described as vassalage and nastier things.
The reasons for the Labour Party voting against the WA may be suspect, but they have so far saved the United Kingdom from Bondage to the EU.
Readers of this site should look at: –
lawyersforbritain.org/why-brexiteers-right-to-reject-theresa-mays-deal
I doubt our PM will do what Sir John suggests. It looks as chaos will continue with a headless chicken in charge. The night of the long knives is sure to follow, with the Public not pleased.
April 1, 2019
Here is the text of an email I have just sent to a certain Labour MP, with
“Closer” = “Colonial”
as the subject heading.
“It may sound good to have a “softer” Brexit, with a “closer” relationship to the EU, but would you have ever recommended to local leaders of countries in the British Empire that after they had become independent they should still remain in a customs union with the mother country, so that their trade policy would continue to be determined in London without them having any say at all, and they could not only be forced to open up their home markets to other countries but do that without any reciprocation?
Were you in the chamber the other day when Greg Hands was describing the Turkey Trap? Why do you want to do that to us?”
April 1, 2019
This can be found through google and is well worth reading:
“A dozen reasons why a UK-EU Customs Union remains a terrible idea”
As this customs union nonsense was started up by Labour ostensibly as the only way to solve the largely fabricated problem of the 0.1% of UK GDP which is driven across the Irish land border I would emphasise this passage:
“A customs union does not solve the Irish border āproblemā. Customs checks only represent a small element of potential border checks at EU borders today. A bigger issue is product conformity and other single market rules. This is another reason why any customs union would require either effective UK single market membership or border checks between Britain and Northern Ireland and/or Britain and the rest of the EU.”
That is why checks on the Irish border could only end completely with the advent of the EU Single Market in 1993, not with the customs union in 1973, and also why Labour had to start to add single market alignment to its original proposal just for the/a customs union.
April 1, 2019
Yes Yes Yes. Out on 12th April. I hope the majority of conservative MPs you allude to actually materialise to effect our clean departure.
The fear of a WTO relationship with the EU is based on ignorance. If it is so bad why is our current trade with the rest of the World a success and in profit. I accept that the EU has protectionist tariffs in some areas that will demand we change our trading direction. The essence of trading large and small is to have flexibility and to respond.
Yes we should submitt a FTA proposal on leaving. Thjs is the point at which May and her remain cabal should go.
April 2, 2019
A WTO exit is the only option (with or without the offer of an FTA) that gives UK a completely free hand in future negotiations, if any. Every other option being considered ties UK down before negotiations even begin and blocks or hinders UK’s restoration of self-government and international relations, particularly on trade, with the world. Strategically a WTO exit is the only sensible option. A military commander would have no truck with any of the others and dismiss them in about 10 seconds flat.
April 1, 2019
Good to see the majority of Cabinet members no favour “no deal” – or as I prefer to call it:
A Deal Free Brexit.
A No Strings Brexit
A No Chains Brexit
A Chain Free Brexit
April 1, 2019
Good man. A lot of negativity here lately. Do the EU lovers think weāre just going to shrug our shoulders and say āoh well, never mindā?
Not this callsign.
April 1, 2019
That’s far to0 rational an approach for this set of government “leaders” to take. That should have been the proposal from day one as we had all the cards in our hand to deal as we wished .. the EU had none, except their control over vested interests over here … but the pro eu establishment pretended otherwise and played a europhile blinder making an easy leave option a really hard pretend to leave reality.
April 1, 2019
Yes but overall there is not a clear majority of MPs in the house against any delay
For two years now we have known that departure must be done in an orderly way, otherwise why did we spend all of that time negotiating, so then without a WA what is the point in repeating the fiction over and over about offering them a free trade deal and leave?
To whom will we offer this free trade deal, I hope you don’t mean the Europeans because the lights are about to go out in Europe as far as UK is concerned, very soon there won’t be anyone at home. You don’t think that Barnier Tusk Verhofstadt and Junker et al are going to hang around forever while this Tory shambles continues- anyway its very near Easter time now and am sure they are all looking forward to the break..make no mistake they are also thinking 12th April.. Jeez
April 1, 2019
Why is the failed PM (and big fan of Dominic Grieve) Sir John ERM Major given endless time on the BBC to deliver his totally misguided views? On Marr again this week. Not even any real cross questioning of his silly views. He always talks slowly as if talking to people even dafter then he is.
April 1, 2019
The panicky seemingly authoritative briefings to the media over the weekend seem to point to a soft Brexit (Customs Union) as being inevitable.
Someone knows something I havenāt been able to grasp. In a leave/stay scenario, you have left if you control your own destiny, you stay if someone else is does. The WA, the Customs Union both lead to a situation where Parliament doesnāt gain control and isnāt afforded the opportunity of governing the UK.
On that basis the option is really we leave or we stay.
Has the UK Parliament sunk so low is that saying āup yoursā to the people of the UK and stuff the referendum, government for the people by the people has no meaning here?
April 1, 2019
Re your last sentence, I McD, yes, they believe we belong in the post democratic age (some remarks by key eurocrats to back that up on internet).
April 1, 2019
A sensible position. So what about Sir Richard Atkins legal opinion on the extension letter ?
April 1, 2019
The PM now has the opportunity to remove the CU supporting members from her cabinet. There are plenty of Brexit supporters that can (return to) replace them.
April 1, 2019
Interesting speach by Dr Alice Weidel showing the depth of concerns in Germany.
the AfD co-leader speech on Brexit in Bundestag, Alice Weidel, English subtitles (March 2019).
On You Tube.
April 1, 2019
I hope all Conservative MPs see that this is the only outcome the country at large will now forgive and respect. For those who oppose on business grounds, it will at least give clarity, and could well provide a unifying boost to all.
April 1, 2019
Alternatively and soon necessary anyway, let Conservative M.P.s speedily give us a new Cabinet, one more capable and in tune with honouring the manifesto on which they were elected.
April 1, 2019
Yes, Oh Yes – But just Stop May from sidling off to Brussels – No more extensions!
April 1, 2019
Couldn’t you just tie her to the table leg?
April 1, 2019
Regarding the current Cabinet: “those whom the Gods wish to destroy…..etc”.
April 1, 2019
May will tack a Customs Union on the WA and Liebor will support it.
The Turkey trap.
April 1, 2019
It would have been nice to see a UK-drafted FTA dumped on the desk of Juncker along with our Article 50 declaration, all those wasted months ago.
P.S. I’m wondering where the tariff income would go to if we were to join a customs union with the EU.
April 1, 2019
I agree John, problem is it would seem that too many of our Mp’s lack the real knowledge of what a real Free Trade Agreement is and even far less about how it should work.
The whole point is it is free to suit both sides, not just One.
You should not have to pay to get it, or surrender National power or Sovereignty for it to work.
I am absolutely dismayed at the party politics and power games many MP’s, and all Party leaders are playing at the moment.
Keep up the good work John, stay strong, and try to convince others that your ideals are the ones to follow.
Shame on those who would sell their soul, their Country, and the peoples wishes down the drain.
April 1, 2019
No Deal will only happen if the EU tell us to “go away”.
April 1, 2019
No more delay because we have other matters to deal with.
No signing of this WA, May has been told it is not agreeable, unless the EU can release some of the bindings.
April 1, 2019
Sir John, in the Guardian Juncker is reported to have said, āSo far, we know what the British parliament says no to, but we donāt know what it might say yes to,ā he said. āWe have had a lot of patience with our British friends over Brexit, but patience runs out.ā
What would you say ‘yes’ to?
Reply Leaving on 12 April! I have set out how many times here.
April 2, 2019
And so say all of us!
April 2, 2019
Reply Leaving on 12 April! I have set out how many times here”
But nearly half the country doesn’t want to. As the speaker keeps saying: “We must be heard.”
Do you want a civil war?
April 1, 2019
If the corrupt (I can think of no all-inclusive adjective for the subject) WA were to be implemented circumstances (dear boy, circumstances Mac.) will change, and at that not in the too distant future; making all the shenanigans going on at the moment pointless.
Europe is unstable, treaties with it surely are null and void if it breaks down.
May God have mercy on us!
April 1, 2019
There is an overwhelming majority in the HOP and t he country against such a course of action although personally I don`t think it is it is any worse than May`s horror.
By not any worse I mean, in the sense that being gauged to death with a pencil, is not obviously worse than being disemboweled with a rusty spoon – neither are tempting clearly.
April 1, 2019
O/t but perhaps you could have a word with any in the ERG that might have leadership ambitions, and point out that they will only get followers if it is clear where they are going. A tactical switch of sides on, say, the withdrawal agreement only muddied the waters.
April 1, 2019
Your problem, Sir John, is that your Remainer colleagues in Parliament won’t allow us to leave without a deal. They will instruct the Government to request a long delay.
I can’t understand how you can still be in denial. There is simply nowhere near enough support across the House for a WTO exit. To our deep regret, the arithmetic simply does not add up.
The only way we can leave without a deal is if Brussels denies an extension or the unlikely scenario in which the 27 set such draconian conditions that your most Europhile colleagues won’t sign up to them.
April 1, 2019
Au contraire, M71. The Europhiles in parliament have shown themselves willing to sign up to any amount of draconian conditions.
April 1, 2019
‘No Deal’ and Leave versus the WA, never leave and no democracy.
The WA is a sell-out regardless of what ‘sweetners’ are offered. “Please put on these chains and you can choose the colour of your cell!”
April 1, 2019
Easy isn’t.
Leave now, deals later.
If the EU wants free trade, one of their principles, and they believe in principles, they will agree.
If they don’t its easy to work out they are completely unprincipled.
April 1, 2019
A very good idea. Unfortunately, nothing so simple and sensible will happen: sitting conservative MP,s are now facing de-selection, this will concentrate their minds wonderfully and cause further procrastination.
The whole world is tuning in to the daily parliamentary voting for a laugh at how the once proud Brit’s are being bullied by the EU
April 1, 2019
Hold firm, Sir John; there are millions who are supporting you and those other MP’s who wish to renew the UK as an independent country.
Stick to your guns, please, and keep fighting.
April 1, 2019
If form is anything to go by Mrs. May will let Parliament come up with a favoured (least disliked pro-leave) option and then tell you to vote for either it or her carefully scripted capitulation (her 4th vote under a different guise).
Either way she, and Brussels, win – Leave looses.
Game, set and Match.
April 1, 2019
When Wargaming you analyse what the opposing forces want.
In Brexit terms the EU wants the UK as a compliant milch cow –
incapable of saying anything more than “when do you want us to pay and how much”.
The forces supporting this aim are the EU, most of the Members of Parliament, most of the Cabinet and Mrs. May – as evidenced by her Withdrawl Agreement and all the things she has done to promote it.
It seems fairly clear that the Federation is using the Leave rebellion to cement its power over the Nation States and will use the UK capitulation as a lesson in Power.
The UK will not be allowed to make (meaningful) trade deals on its own behalf.
We will be isolated from the rest of the Anglosphere, especially the USA.
The pretense of the Irish border will herald Max Fac being used aggressively by the EU as part of a push to “persuade” the UK that it is better of within the Federation, in the Shengen protocol and in the Euro.
The BBC and most of the Legacy Media will support this pogrom.
By 2025ish the EU will be using all UK resources to further its aims.
We will be told that this is the Brexit we voted for.
April 1, 2019
It strikes me JR, you 28 should make it clear GOWTO 12/04/2019 or no confidenc with Labour. Your 28 jobs will be safe, as for the rest…… who cares.
As for the morons who voted for Traitor Ken Clarke’s customs union, are they utterly stupid or trying their best to scare to get May’s servitude plan? Both parties stated out of single market and customs union so no point in idiots like Gauke saying not all our manifesto can be delivered because of numbers. When both parties combined had 82 percent Agreement on those points!
April 1, 2019
Matter of honour and integrity and there aren’t,to many legacies in that cohort. Oh how low they’ve sunk. They will all have interesting conversations on doorsteps, if they dare!
April 1, 2019
Vote against anything the isn’t Brexit.
The Withdrawal Agreement and Customs Union are the same thing.
The Customs Union is taxation with representation.
April 1, 2019
“Either way she, and Brussels, win ā Leave looses.” – Fishknife
I suspect Leavers would not accept that any more than Remain have accepted the referendum result, and then the next election will kick things off again. It is certainly not going to heal the country.
April 1, 2019
AI
Indeed !
Any remainer who thinks we will let this go really needs to think again, and buy a good pair of running shoes along with the first flight they can get out of the country.
Leave will eventually win.
April 1, 2019
Torpedoed by Process: as Mr. Baker commented Parliament can only vote Yea or Nay, so it is difficult to force it to make a choice.
April 1, 2019
I fear you are right. It makes me glad I have not had any children.
April 1, 2019
I’m afraid that you have underestimated the determination of the remoaners to thwart all attempts to deliver Brexit. These antidemocratic traitors will stop at nothing.
April 1, 2019
This seems very clear and they are indeed anti-democratic traitors. Even if the dire speaker says they are not. Most are going back directly on the manifestos on which they were elected.
April 1, 2019
My 85th birthday is April 11th. If only the next day would produce an exit from “the evil empire” What a lovely present.
April 1, 2019
Brigham..you’ll have your exit soon enough, you and your age group. So it’s not about you now, it’s about the young people and their future. You lived in a time of empire- the young people should have to have a chance to make their own empire. James age 75.
April 1, 2019
James,
Most of the elderly I know, and indeed the middle aged, hugely consider the youth in their decisions. They have experience and are invested in their children and grandchildren. For many it is about them, they consider the best lives for the next generations.
April 1, 2019
Dear James some of us wish good fortune to others even if they hold different views , the True Brit way, as it also comes back on you as Karma.
Many folks I know voted for their grandchildren ‘s future to live in a free country without having to emigrate. …
April 1, 2019
And our 50th Wedding Anniversary is on 12th April so that would be a double bonus!
We voted for Independence not 585 pages of Surrender!
We have seen nearly 50 years of EU nonsense and pray not a day too soon to leave.
April 2, 2019
ukretired
This ‘EU nonsense’ turned us from the ‘sick man of Europe’ into the world’s 5th largest economy.
Do you want us to go back to our pre EU days when industry was collapsing, interest rates were spiralling and inflation was rampant?
When we had food, fuel and power shortages and a steadily growing balance of payments deficit?
The common market saved us by pumping in 25% of its regional development funds to stabilise Britain, the highest ever figure
April 3, 2019
More ridiculous cut and paste from you margaret.
April 1, 2019
Hello ,
Both Labour and Conservatives were , as Public Servants, voted in , on the basis of their Manifestos ,
Its time to Leave,
Local Elections are coming soon and I for one, will NOT be voting for either of the two main parties.
There will not be a General Election because of all the disillusioned voters .
Farage speaks a lot of sense , but does not have the Party Structure,
We may be grateful to Mr Macron for pushing us out.
April 1, 2019
I admire your perseverance and commitment – though I fear you are leading the U.K down a path that will lead us into a customs union and becoming a vassal state.
It appears God does have a sense of humour, after all.
April 1, 2019
Merlin, you could be right š
It would be interesting to know why a Customs Union would benefit the UK?
100% of tariffs on UK imports would be locked to those of the EU, so all those things that we don’t grow or manufacture here could have tariffs on them. How does that help getting free trade agreements with the 60% of our trade that comes from the rest of the world?
The upside is 100% of those tariffs would come to the UK Exchequer, unless May is going to give that away to the EU as well…
April 1, 2019
Is this another gleeful remainer comment? ”It doesn’t matter how much my country suffers just so long as I can say ‘I told you so”’ – is that it?
Thank goodness we’re not all naysayers.
April 1, 2019
The last Governor of the Bank of England agrees with you John !
April 1, 2019
I love your optimism JR, but Brexit is dead. It was May’s WA or nothing in this parliament dominated by remainers who now call the shots.
April 1, 2019
Paul – I hate to hear people being so negative. Yes – it is disgusting how these people have behaved, but that is no reason why we should give up the dream of escape from this evil empire. We owe it to our children. We MUST fight on. We have to thank Sir John for leading the way.
We have to escape before they drag us down with them. And down most certainly it WILL be – not up! (Notice – the remainers have stopped telling us about their positive take on their EU, and how it will drag us out of the gutter, as they see it. I wonder why?)
April 1, 2019
Iām pretty fed up with the constant steam of politicians being given air time today to spew out there bile on how we should stay in a custom union and a single market, what bloody part of the 2016 referendum donāt they understand we voted out and that should mean out with no ties or some secret back door that any future government can use to get us back into the Eu, donāt take us for fools just get us out on April 12th and if that means no deal so be it, we are British and proud and am pretty sure we will survive outside the dreaded Eu as for the remoaners who arenāt so sure then go live in your beloved Europe bye bye youāll not be missed
April 1, 2019
Has a ‘D’ notice gone out against ‘WTO’ as everyone seems afraid to even mention it ?
April 1, 2019
Dear glen–Good question. Huge proportion of our trade is already happily on WTO terms and the average tariff on exports to EU would only be 4% so the fabricated drama against is well OTT. OF COURSE there would be short term disruption. We would be free once again to fraternise as we wish with our kith and kin in the Anglosphere instead of foreigners most of whom resent everything about us, in particular that they find themselves, like it or lump it, having to speak English.
April 1, 2019
All Parliament decisions to leave EU must be rejected by Conservative Government unless it conforms 100% to Conservative Party 2017 manifesto and as stated by current and previous Conservative Prime Ministers.
Failure to deliver will mean the end of the Conservative Party.
April 1, 2019
Indeed the Tory vote will split again between the Brexit Party, UKIP and Conservative in more areas that do not have a sound Tory MP (perhaps just 100 at best).
April 1, 2019
We had an indicative vote almost three years ago now (the only one that counts) and now the government must stop wasting the nation’s time, stop ignoring it and implement the decision as they originally pledged to do on the spot. The country voted to throw off the shackles of the EU and regain its sovereignty, not become even more enmeshed in the rotten foreign superstate. WTO and nothing less than WTO is the only way that can be achieved, as you have argued all along.
April 1, 2019
That is right, parliament voted through Article 50 deal or no deal. The deal agreed by the EU is not acceptable to parliament so we leave with No Deal on the 12th April 2019. Both sides of the channel, the world, and gov.uk is ready for it.
Time for her to knock down the gavel and leave with no deal. Gather up her files and walk out of the chamber to get on with attending to other things, knife crime, education and real life governance.
April 1, 2019
No, we donāt want her to attend to other things. We want her to walk out of the chamber and keep on walking. Heaven forbid she should screw up anything else.
April 1, 2019
Sue Doughty
“The deal agreed by the EU is not acceptable to parliament so we leave with No Deal on the 12th April 2019.”
Indeed so, Sue. However for some bizarre reason remain is peddling the myth that it’s the 22nd, not the 12th.
April 1, 2019
We are not leaving the EU. Most ordinary mortals know this.
It seems HMS Queen Elizabeth, HMS Duncan, HMS Iron Duke and RFA Tideforce are to be transferred to EU command.
It is too late to avert the disaster of EU membership. We on this blog saw it coming.
Here it is.
We await its further unfolding into tragic waste of life
April 1, 2019
Prigger
“It seems HMS Queen Elizabeth, HMS Duncan, HMS Iron Duke and RFA Tideforce are to be transferred to EU command.”
Don’t know where you got that from, but if true it begs the question what does the EU want with our fleet ? The french have a sizeable fleet, why not use theirs ?
My suspicion would have to be they intend to threaten or provoke someone with it, Russia perhaps?
“We are not leaving the EU. Most ordinary mortals know this.”
Yep, the cry baby liberals the corrupt, and the Cambridge subversives will have their way this time. But next time they won’t, and they’ll be made to shut up.
In any event, there will be serious consequences to this betrayal.
April 2, 2019
It was put up as an April Fool’s joke. However, it is what Mrs May’s deal commits UK to do – PESCO and the European Defence Fund and all the ramifications of the EU foreign, defence and security polices taking precedence over national policies – so Germany still won’t have to pay for its defence but will have control of its defence. In fact the EU requirement contained in Juncker’s first five year plan is not defence but force projection in support of EU expansion. According to Tusk recently , it needs Armed Forces for defence against Russia, China and the USA.
Arming the EU is an act of collective insanity. Mrs May likes it enormously.
April 1, 2019
I have just read the motion of Kenneth Clarke et al. to negotiate a “commitment to negotiate” a customs union with the EU. What would be their fallback were either of these two negotiations to fail?
April 2, 2019
At least dear Ken Clarke – he’s a great story teller apparently and very funny – is honest enough to recognise that with all these options nobody has seriously approached EFTA, the EEA(EU), Switzerland, Lichtenstein, Norway or Iceland, not mention the other 27 members of the EU/EEA to ascertain whether these options would even be entertained seriously. So they are completely undefined. It is a pitiful exercise in futility.
But it keeps the blighters occupied while Mrs May carries on regardless.
April 1, 2019
I have a horrible feeling Sir John (not for wobbling) Redwood, could wobble before a 4th vote. I hope I am wrong (I know I shouldnt even utter these things), but its a bit like when Saddam Hussein used to have elections and got 99 percent of the vote. That is what our country is like now.
April 1, 2019
I see over 74% of conservative party members support a no deal according to conservativehome.com.
Its hard to see now any result but a clean WTO break from the EU satisfying them, if anything those that push for the WA or closer ties to the EU are going to be savaged by the party worse even then the electorate.
So hoping we do get a no deal brexit, then back to the other task this government must do, burying the case for socialism. With lower taxes possible post brexit it will be enjoyable watch Corbyn squirm.
April 2, 2019
Indeed the second task is not that easy until they remover Hammond from no 11. He has given us the highest and most idiotic taxes fro 40 years and is clearly an dire economic illiterate & indeed clearly a government know best socialist at heart.
April 1, 2019
Hear hear! And good luck with today’s parliamentary excursion on the proverbial Skylark.
I know we can trust you to chart – for any MPs who have been asleep during previous debates – the lasting, wounding disadvantages to the UK of a customs union with the EU.
April 1, 2019
Unfortunately the Remainers will eventually win, let them. In time history will show it was a terrible decision to stay. The E.U will eventually implode but not before serious damage. This Great British island will never be the same again. No more voting for me ,these so called elites will have their way
April 1, 2019
John,
I am afraid you have lost it. It’s May’s deal and renegotiate down the road under a Brexiter Tory leader or customs union followed by a break up of the Conservative party and a Corbyn government, which will more damage than any deal with Europe would do.
Try and look forward and plan for the next 5 years. Look at it as a process not a one day event. You are in danger of losing everything. Just vote for the deal!
April 2, 2019
No the deal is far too appalling.
April 2, 2019
May’s Withdrawal (Vassalage-Accession) Agreement is a one track ticket to acceding to the new EU treaties intended to replace the Lisbon Treaty by 2025. If it passes, not even Superman would be able to retrieve anything remotely like Brexit from it.
April 1, 2019
Theresa May has a straight choice, there is no middle way if her deal is out of the question now. She either sides with the Remain Labour Party, as they should now be called , dubbed Common Market 2 , perhaps with a new referendum , supported by a minority on her side, this is the equivalent of the Ramsay MacDonald or Robert Peel option as they divided their parties or she goes with most Conservatives but a minority in the House , for a no deal. I would guess the former but this might be disguised. There have to be consequences for that choice. Many people I know would refuse to vote at all in any later elections though I think that is wrong. Anyway we could by default end up with Corbyn as PM perhaps as a minority supported by the SNP.
April 1, 2019
According to Katya Adler, the BBC Europe Editor, today:
“However many Brexit options are voted on today in the House of Commons, EU law stipulates that there are only three on the table: no deal, no Brexit, or Theresa May’s negotiated deal.”
So aren’t you MPs just wasting your and our time?
April 1, 2019
Ms Howard
Yes, and they’re getting paid handsomely for doing so.
April 1, 2019
Well done for facing down the bullying, mendacious cynics of our government. Many of us are genuinely proud of you and your colleagues for standing up for our country.
April 1, 2019
Why are we kidding ourselves we are never going to be free of this corrupt organisation. May and the rest of the quislings in parliament will never allow it . May is prepared to destroy the Tory party in her quest to make us a EU Protectorate state. She entered these talks waving a white flag today we should be a free country we are not thanks Tory party.
April 2, 2019
Indeed all thanks to the appalling May & Hammond, Gove (for knifing Boris) and the clear bias of the Speaker.
April 2, 2019
Yes. you need to understand technocratic supra-nationalism. It regards the nation state as an intrinsic threat to world peace and stability. Nation states must be subjugated. With them goes democracy. It is a price worth paying and in democracy’s place we will have fair and just government by people qualified to exercise the necessary power: technocrats, backed by experts, captains of industry, leaders of quangos, leaders of political activist movements etc. their opinions are obviously to be preferred to those of ordinary unqualified people.
In this structure the concept of political parties with candidates for parliament selected by popularity is clearly defective. We need them, at least temporarily, to give an impression that we care about the plebs. But politicians giving undue weight to the opinions of the general populace are rightly dismissed as mere populists, outriders to be derided and rejected.
These people are in the majority in parliament and Mrs May and Philip Hammond are just to among many in government and on the back benches.
April 1, 2019
Dear Newmaina Andy Helena Margaret etc
The latest manufacturing PMI figures are out and itās more grim reading for Merkel and Macron with the Eurozoneās index falling to 47.5 in March ā firmly in contraction territory and the lowest level since April 2013. Germany is rapidly becoming the sick man of Europe, its reading of 44.1 is the worst since the crisis days of 2012ā¦
Meanwhile the UKās own manufacturing index has surged to a 14-month high of 55.1, coming in far ahead of the forecast of 51.2.
The UK could even consider giving the EU a trade deal, if they ask nicelyā¦
Ive been telling you this for some time, maybe its time you started to listen to people who actually know something about trade?
April 2, 2019
We do – and it it not you. All the figures show is that UK businesses are stockpiling like crazy to cope with your Brexit.
April 1, 2019
It seems that Sir John is one of very few members who actually understands what the heck is going on.
Quite frankly, a lot of other, less intellectually endowed, MPs appear not to have the foggiest!
April 1, 2019
Although I could say I now see the light and would hope we stay in the EU, sadly I have a dream..It is that the foolish MPs who come up with all manner of twists in the tale, will finally wake up to reality and push and vote/don’t vote until we secure a NO Deal outcome.
April 1, 2019
Personally Iād rather MPs just revoked Art 50 now, it is what they intend to do anyway so get it done before more damage is done to the country. No hiding behind a Second ref, sorry People’s vote, sorry Confirmatory Vote to give themselves the veneer of democracy.
Just do it, our revenge will be sweet.
April 1, 2019
Helen Smith,
Agreed if no deal is impossible then revoking A50 and seeing what happens to the UK’s and EU’s politics is the way to go. Both parties seem afraid of this to the extent that will contrive a relationship in which the UK is simply in the EU but without a say (Turkey trap plus plus).
April 1, 2019
Helen Smith
“Just do it, our revenge will be sweet.”
I think it will be bloody, quite honestly. There is real anger in the country.
I foresee this anger breaking loose around the time of the next general election, or sooner when the betrayal is ratified.
April 1, 2019
Well, the suicidal conservatives should be pleased with themselves. Allowing themselves to be taken in by the likes of grand traitor Clarke.
I can only reiterate; anything other than no deal exit and we destroy the conservative party at the next general election, regardless of who their leader is.
It will not be for a decade or a generation, voters will be going for the throat. There will be no such thing as the conservative party when we’re done.
April 1, 2019
The Conservative Party had its origins in 1832. It had gone through a lot of events., adapting every time more or less successfully. I am afraid that a few more excited people in the coming months “going for the throat” will not have much effect despite the irrelevant noises they make today.
April 2, 2019
I feel sorry for good, hardworking conservative councillors who will be punished for MP’s mistakes, I keep trying to persuade people not to take the view that filling the local council up with newbie unconnected councillors or Labour in protest will achieve anything but higher bills and poor decision making, inward-looking small minded councillors. Labour isn’t a protest either with Corbyn’s customs union conversion he’d sell the UK down the river faster than May.
My local conservative councillor has done an amazing job with my local primary school, I read of his improvements and achievements through personal motivation and drive, however, my second vote! where to place that? And if my Conservative MP runs again, she will never get my families vote again.
April 1, 2019
Dear Mr. Redwood,
And still many Conservative MP’s don’t get it. Anything other than a clean break will end badly for them as individuals or for the party collectively.
April 1, 2019
Great news, all options defeated , what is next?
April 1, 2019
And following tonight’s votes will we see the PM run down the clock for a second time with a fourth MV?
Options remaining, in no particular order
1) Corbyn’s call for a third set of meaningful votes to push again for a permanent (???) CU.
2) No deal on 12th April
3) May’s WA deal with panic support of switching Tories or Labour support with promises of CU.
4) EU offer to change backstop in reopened WA, with delay but no UK MEP s
5) May finally gets it and asks EU for some months to prepare for no deal.p
6) Revocation of A50 relying on electorate being too tired to care (or choosing not to vote when there is no democracy).
April 1, 2019
Hi JR,
Addendum: I note that Nigel Farage has called on the EU in the Parliament to “let my people go” to not extend it the time – Isn’t it odd that that April 12 is juts before Passover, the time when the Israelites came out of Egypt.. with miracles.
April 1, 2019
A clear majority of Conservative MPs…here we go again. So what do you think the rest of the MPs in the House should be doing if Brexit is just a Tory issue? The fact is – you’re a minority government. Now just get over it and accept that there has to be some cross-party agreement somewhere. If there isn’t, then there is no point in an elected Parliament.
April 2, 2019
The Cabinet Secretary has spelt out, in detail, the harm no deal will do to our country.
This has been clear in Parliamentary testimony from experts, from a growing collection of evidence and from probable facts.
MPs who ignore all of this and continue to back no deal anyway do somat considerable personal peril. You will be the first ones we hold to account and bring to justice.
Choosing to spend a swathe of your retirement in prison is pretty odd but if that is what the ERG wants we will facilitate it for them.
April 2, 2019
Mrs May knew this would be the outcome. She now has the ball back in her court. Her serve. She has an almost free hand to serve up to the European Council some further concoction of a dog’s dinner version of Remain. It will of course need a long delay, which is something Remainers in Parliament feel it would be impolite to favour while Brexiteers are in the room but secretly thinks is probably the best subterfuge (not remaining, could still leave but not just yet) by which to get to a position of not leaving at all.
If Mrs May can’t have her Withdrawal (Vassalage-Accession) Agreement, then this is a good enough Plan B to keep UK in the EU, which is her aim. And she will be able to blame Parliament for ‘forcing’ her into it. Yippee!
Let’s hope the EU simply calls time on this circus. It has gone on long enough to no good effect and it would not help anyone to continue with it.
But, there is time to get an exit on WTO terms. The Irish are ready – legislation passed in March. The EU says it is ready. Is UK? Much more than it has suited the government to admit. UK could be well and truly ready by 11 April if it was so minded. The Irish border has been shown to be what it always was: a negotiating bluff. There is no real problem.
If UK remains in the EU as parliament desires, it can expect the following within 2 to 10 years, most by 2025:
Losing its rebate
Joining Schengen
Joining the Euro
Uniform corporate and personal taxation.
Uniform regulation of financial services.
EU Jurisprudence
Budgetary supervision by an EU treasury
Formalised EU armed forces, operational and procurement structures
EU Foreign, Defence and Security Policies taking precedence over national forces and policies
Mandatory migrant quotas
Removal of Article 50.
Other transfers of competencies from member states to the EU, ie., further losses of sovereignty.
Some of these measure should be expected to be implemented during the ‘implementation period’ and UK will have no ability to influence, vary or block them.
There has been no debate about this. It is a highly unappealing prospect and Remainers must be challenged to explain why such a future would benefit UK. They don’t proclaim either the measures or the supposed benefits themselves because they know they would be comprehensively rejected by voters. It is up to you to expose it.
MPs need reminding that the people who now prefer a WTO exit to Mrs May’s deal and any of the likely Remainer biased offerings to replace it, are the same people who work in jobs supposedly threatened by this mythical cliff edge of crashing out of the EU. If they have little problem with it why are MPs demonising it by synthesizing difficulties and propagating Project Fear?
The Conservative Party has only one chance to avoid catastrophic defeat at the next general election whenever that is: it must prepare UK for a WTO exit on 12 April and if necessary replace Mrs May now, not afterwards, in order to do it.
Then we might, just might vote Conservative again. No guarantees.
April 2, 2019
Lies. Total lies. As has been pointed out, everything on your list is subject to a state veto. But you keep on lying. Is that what the case for Brexit has been reduced to?
April 3, 2019
Read the Five Presidents Report and the Lisbon Treaty Helena.
It is all in there.
April 2, 2019
A General Election should shake out most of the unwanted, anti-democratic and / or incompetent MPs in our Parliament.
EU elections might do the same there. The situation should be clearer & simpler with sensible bods replacing the daft ones.
April 2, 2019
Agree with your last sentence. Problem is there are not many members of the HoC who have ever been in those life threatening situations military or civilian that demand the ability to make decisions. Their inability gets people killed or in a Cabinet led by May produces the camel when a horse is demanded.3
April 2, 2019
What was Theresa May’s 39 billion about…..was it to buy herself a European commissioner’s job, after she’d widened her “deal” into full membership? I think questions should be asked in the House.
April 2, 2019
āHowever many Brexit options are voted on today in the House of Commons, EU law stipulates that there are only three on the table:
No deal
No Brexit
Theresa Mayās negotiated deal
April 3, 2019
The last one is not a deal
The first one is not a No deal it is leaving on WTO terms.