The latest polls should warn the two main parties in the Commons to avoid a European election.

The latest poll for the possible European elections shows Labour on just 22% and the Conservatives on a new low of 15%. The two main parties in the current Commons commanded 82.4% of the vote between them in June 2017. Then both parties promised to implement the decision of UK voters to leave the EU. By making that important promise many UKIP voters returned to the two main parties. The Conservatives hoovered up Eurosceptic votes and Labour attracted left wing votes from people who had often not voted before. Labour kept a lot of its Leave voters in the Midlands and the North by promising to leave. The two parties have lost 55% of their vote according to the latest poll, and will struggle to get it back for the Euro election.

The votes have gone to parties clearly committed to an early Brexit on the one hand, and to parties wishing to abandon Brexit on the other. The pro Brexit parties are on 34% of the vote, and the anti Brexit parties on 29%

Brexit party 27% Greens 10%
UKIP 7% Lib Dems 9%
Change 6%
SNP/Plaid 4%
Total 34% Total 29%

It is difficult to see how a Euro election could be other than a verdict on how and when to get out of the EU. The indecision by Conservatives and Labour over this very issue has led to their collapse in the polls, as many voters have come to doubt their stated intention at the last election to get us out in good time.

My advice to the government remains the same. Announce you are cancelling the Euro elections and leave without signing the Withdrawal Agreement. We can leave on 22 May under the extension agreement. Offer talks on a free trade agreement for the day after we leave.
Looking at these polls were Mr Corbyn and Mrs May to do a deal to put the Withdrawal Agreement through they could avoid the Euro elections that way. The problem with that approach is as described yesterday. The Withdrawal Treaty entails binding us back into the EU, meaning both parties have a great deal of explaining to do as to why they have committed to it. Both parties would continue to suffer in the national polls from uniting to push through a much disliked Treaty that does not allow us to take back control of our laws, our money and our borders any time soon ,and does not agree terms for our eventual possible departure from the EU. They are also leaving it very late to get the complex and unpopular legislation through Parliament against a determined minority opposing it all the way.
It is strange to watch two leaders fixated by such an unpopular Treaty and willing to preside over such a huge collapse in their party’s vote owing to failure to do as promised in the summer of 2017.

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216 Comments

  1. Nigl
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 5:23 am | Permalink

    ‘Toxic’ Theresa, it won’t be just the Europeans polls you should avoid!

    • Lifelogic
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 6:18 am | Permalink

      Indeed. All entirely predictable. Why indeed is the toxic liability of Theresa May still in office? Then again the Tories chose to retain the appalling John Major until the bitter end when he buried the party. Labour 418 seats to Conservative 165. If anything May’s legacy will be worse still – but then Corbyn is worse than Blair.

      • Hope
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 7:35 am | Permalink

        Tory party won the last election by outrageously lying to the public. Traitor May the used time to change our minds using her,strap time to move on knowing,she was lying again with her servitude plan.

        May wound down the clock for four. I this promising changes and deliberately doing nothing. She has a solution through the Brady amendment and did not do nothing. We read claims by the EU no new proposals were brought forward!

        May and the EU have not abandoned their servitude collusion they are now trying a different tactic. May using JRM backbenchers like Letwin and Clarke to approach Labour to get her way.

        Toxic May trying to get dirt on some backbenchers as well! There is no end to her disgraceful underhand slimy behaviour.

        May has abando no your party time for it to abandoned her! Withdraw all support immediately, MPs and associations.

        • Hope
          Posted April 19, 2019 at 7:40 am | Permalink

          LL, Major did not care he caused thousands of businesses to go bust and thousands of people to lose their homes for his fantastical EU dream. He did not care The Tory party were out of office for decades because he achieved his aim. Ken Clarke did not care being in opposition. Did these two care about ousting Thatcher? This is the same mindset now. These type of fantatics put EU above country and party. These Fanatics were content with Blair in office because he was of the same mindset.

          I am at a loss why this was and is not recognised by Leave MP especially prominent ones.

          • Hope
            Posted April 19, 2019 at 8:01 am | Permalink

            Conhome today MEP Sajjad Karim chosen, yes chosen, by CCHQ to represent the north west. He is pro remain EU and wants a second He is forced upon the local associations in the area who do not share his view. Why canvass, support or vote for someone May demands you vote for?

            Withdrawal support for the Tory party immediately.

          • miami.mode
            Posted April 19, 2019 at 4:57 pm | Permalink

            Hope, agree that the Major premiership was a disaster, but even now he doesn’t seem to be able to equate the problems he created with membership of the EU. You would think that the Tories would have learned something from it.

            Just reading that the president of Liberia has had to move out of his office due to the presence of snakes!

            Now, I know what you are thinking……

      • PeterM
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 8:37 am | Permalink

        Calm down, dear. What about (re-)reading “A very British coup” by Chris Mullin, 1982. Maybe you will find some intriguing elements in this
        “classic political thriller” not so far from the present situation.

      • Tell The Truth
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 11:58 am | Permalink

        Corbyn is the messiah and you well know it, hence your abhorring remark about comparing Bliar. I liken the sea change that Labour will bring to a real Tory, Margaret Thatcher.

        R.I.P Tory. Haha!

        • NickC
          Posted April 19, 2019 at 2:55 pm | Permalink

          Tell the Truth, Idolising any politician is a recipe for disaster. Whether you like it or not Tony Blair was idolised in his early years – especially by Labour politicians, activists, voters, and media sympathisers like the BBC (remember the champagne bottles after the 1997 election?).

          • Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

            I don’t understand what he/she said, NickC. Was it something important, or obscurely clever, or too deep for tears, or what?
            Well done, anyway, for trying to answer it sensibly.

      • Ken Moore
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 9:19 pm | Permalink

        Email sent to all Conservative Mp’s prior to the last leadership election by Nick Boles. I suspect the majority of Conservatives in parliament agree with him ie that the natural supporters of the party have views that are beyond the pale.

        ‘I am seriously frightened about the risk of allowing Andrea Leadsom on to the membership ballot. What if Theresa stumbles? Are we really confident that the membership won’t vote for a fresh face who shares their attitude about much of modern life? Like they did with IDS [Iain Duncan Smith, Tory leader

    • eeyore
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 6:23 am | Permalink

      The two main parties may well wish to avoid the Euro elections. Who can blame them for wanting to hide from electors after their disgraceful pranks of the last two years?

      We voters have something to say to both of them. It won’t be pleasant listening.

      A very happy Easter to all.

      • Julie Dyson
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 8:08 am | Permalink

        I wish it were a Happy Easter! Unfortunately, Brexit seems to be about as elusive as the Easter Bunny. The latest polls are telling, and are a powerful warning shot across the bows of the main parties in particular. Will they take notice?

        As a Conservative supporter at heart (I started my first business with the backing of Maggie’s superb Enterprise Allowance initiative in the mid-1980s) I voted for them, despite living in an overwhelmingly strong Labour area, right up until 2007. With the signing of the dreadful Lisbon Treaty I felt compelled to switch to UKIP (after all, my Tory vote was wasted in my area under FPTP) as this ever-closer Union lark was becoming a little too close for comfort. With UKIP’s falling popularity and internal troubles, it’s time for the Brexit Party.

        At the next GE I will be surrounded by tens of thousands of infuriated Labour Leave voters. Who knows — I may actually be on the winning side for a change…

        • NickC
          Posted April 19, 2019 at 3:00 pm | Permalink

          Julie Dyson, I expect the Brexit Party’s main support to be ex Tory voters, rather than Labour. UKIP picks up roughly an even split of ex Tory/Labour supporters.

          • Julie Dyson
            Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:43 pm | Permalink

            Conservative member polls do seem to show a significant dissatisfaction with how things are going, true, but let’s not forget there were around five million Labour voters who also voted Leave… It would be fair to say many of these people are also not very happy bunnies right now, with their own party seemingly split between a customs union (i.e. not actually Brexit) and a second referendum of some description.

            The Brexit Party couldn’t have timed their launch any better, as evidenced by rocketing up to lead the EU polls within just a couple of weeks.

      • Peter Wood
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 11:30 am | Permalink

        Yes indeed, the two main parties; we expect incompetence from the Labour Party, but to be so mal-treated by the Tories, the deliberate deception, the scornful attitude to voters (rescuing remanier members from their associations) and so on. Mrs. May will bury the Tory party if they don’t remove her, and fast.
        At last the MSM are starting to report how bad the WA is and how the May government has tried hide the truth of it. Yes Sir John, you should be afeared of the electorate, we have seen the truth of the Parliamentary Conservative Party and found it foul.

      • Captain Peacock
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 5:02 pm | Permalink

        The voters would do well to avoid the two main parties.
        Don’t forget May’s/Merkel’s deal will cost the taxpayer £403 million a week !!!

  2. Stred
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 5:26 am | Permalink

    The MPs who wish to obtain a real Brexit will have to make it plain that they will bring the government down if they combine with Labour to sign the capitulation agreement. The Brexit Party will let Labour voters who wish to leave with genuine control over freed of movement and the economy know what Starmer’s plans entail

    • Andy
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 6:05 pm | Permalink

      Real Brexit? What is a real Brexit? And who defines it?

      Certainly what most of you would define as ‘real’ has no mandate.

      • Edward2
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 6:22 pm | Permalink

        Real Remain? What is real Remain? And who defines it?

        Certainly what most of you would define as “real” has no mandate.

        • Robert Lee
          Posted April 20, 2019 at 3:03 pm | Permalink

          I like it Edward, but you didn’t point out to the snowflake that 17.4 million voted for the real Brexit as defined by Cameron’s £9m leaflet.

      • libertarian
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 7:03 pm | Permalink

        Andy

        You really ought to read the rules of the organisation you are so fanatical about. If you did you would know that Brexit is an entirely straightforward operation

        Trigger A50, spend a maximum of 2 years ironing out procedures then leave. Having left we can then set about negotiations for an FTA with the EU

        Vanishingly simple process even for the hard of thinking such as yourself

        • Andy
          Posted April 19, 2019 at 8:51 pm | Permalink

          An observation. Your hard Brexit party is doing an amazing job of this ‘vanishingly simple process.’

          All you have to do is accept the ‘real Brexit’ withdrawal terms you are required to accept and the you can get on with negotiating a less good trade deal with the EU than the one we have.

          • Edward2
            Posted April 20, 2019 at 11:46 am | Permalink

            MPs who believe in what you call “hard brexit” have not been involved in the Withdrawal Agreement andy.
            That is why it is such a dreadful treaty.
            Remainers like you have designed it.

      • Posted April 19, 2019 at 11:12 pm | Permalink

        Andy,
        It is defined on the Brexit Party website.

        • Ken Bull
          Posted April 20, 2019 at 4:55 pm | Permalink

          I voted leave in 2016. But I certainly did not and do not support the fraud Farage

  3. Mark B
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 5:34 am | Permalink

    Good morning and Happy Easter.

    The Europarl elections are never taken seriously and are used to punish the main parties. But the strength and rate of growth in BP is something of note.

    The nationalist vote should not be taken as those wishing to for them means that they support Remain. Only the Lib dems and the CUK’s can claim that their supporters support them on their Pro-EU stance. And they are not polling well.

    When you have certain prominent Tory MEP’s practically begging for votes on Tory websites, you know that they are in trouble.

    Sadly even if the UK were to put the BREXIT Party in every Europarl seat, Mrs. May will not listen. I am afraid our kind host is putting too much faith in hope. Hope that his fellow MP’s will come round and bring the PM to her senses. It won’t !

    • Lifelogic
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 6:20 am | Permalink

      They are taken seriously as in the EU elections they can vote as they wish to and not have to vote for the lesser of (usually two) evils – as in the FPTP system.

      • Mark B
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:47 am | Permalink

        LL

        People will go back to their main political allegiances when politics and matters are much closer to home.

        • DaveM
          Posted April 19, 2019 at 1:38 pm | Permalink

          Not this time. Trust has gone. Print the manifesto on toilet paper. That’s about all it’s worth now.

        • javelin
          Posted April 19, 2019 at 8:10 pm | Permalink

          I dont think that is true. If you watch the sentiment on social media yiu will see it has 100% swung against the Conservatives.

        • Robert Lee
          Posted April 20, 2019 at 3:15 pm | Permalink

          Mark generally you would be correct, however l think this time they have overstepped the mark with thier insults, and we will show them that we are not as thick as they think we are.
          Especially now we have an alternative party that we can believe will do what we want.

    • Everhopeful
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 7:15 am | Permalink

      Have seen nationalist bracketed with Remain before.
      Don’t get that at all. Thought nationalist virtually synonymous with Leave?

      • Mark B
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:44 am | Permalink

        For Nationalist read, anti-English, not pro-EU. ergo Anything that hurts the Sassenachs is OK by them 😉

  4. Lifelogic
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 5:43 am | Permalink

    Indeed, as you say – ‘Announce you are cancelling the Euro elections and leave without signing the Withdrawal Agreement’ and leave in May. But alas we have an idiot, traitor and electoral liability residing in Number 10. One who seems to want to destroy the Conservative Party plus an EUphile tax to death economic illiterate in number 11 keen to
    Tax the economy to death and pusher of endless project fear.

    The collapse in the Conservative support was entirely predictable when May chose to lie, cheat and betray the 17.4 million voters. Cameron won a small majority (winning me my 4 to 1 bet) only due to the UKIP supporters coming back to the Conservatives to get the promised referendum. Deluded May is kicking them in the teeth, is her aim to destroy her party or is she just very dim and deluded?

    • Al
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 8:03 am | Permalink

      “Deluded May is kicking them in the teeth, is her aim to destroy her party or is she just very dim and deluded?”

      A comment from one of the no-longer-activists stuck with me. He said seeing the conservative party now feels like watching an old friend going slowly senile. They insist they are as competant as they were and are doing the same things they always did, and the words are right, but then you look around and realise their wallet is in the microwave and the china cabinet has the frozen food in it. It hurts, but that’s the point you stop lending them your car keys.

      Having been through exactly that in my family, I agree.

      • Robert Lee
        Posted April 20, 2019 at 3:21 pm | Permalink

        Brilliant Al👍

    • Tad Davison
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:11 am | Permalink

      Spot on as always LL.

      Reading the Telegraph yesterday, I am gratified to see that columnists are quoting this blog virtually word for word. Other outlets are following their lead.

      It is so frustrating to see an institution like the once great Conservative party being led by donkeys towards the abyss, when the solution to it all is so very simple. All they have to do is
      is to honour the outcome of the EU referendum and let us leave on WTO terms. Instead, the donkeys have prevaricated and cheated us. It is time to unhitch the wagon from those who are clearly taking the party in the wrong direction, towards oblivion.

      May, Hammond, Stewart, Rudd, Gauke, Liddington, and all the other pro-EU toadies who should never have been anywhere near the levers of power have no political capital or credibility left. The inevitable purge of such people is best to come before a melt-down rather than after it. Until that happy and necessary event, I am voting Brexit party where there is a candidate, and UKIP where there isn’t.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 2:14 pm | Permalink

        Indeed. They did not however do it when is was clear Major was going over the cliff and they still appear to have leaned nothing. How can they be so totally out of touch?

        • Robert Lee
          Posted April 20, 2019 at 3:26 pm | Permalink

          The alternative was unthinkable in Majors day but it happened, now there is an acceptable alternative.

      • acorn
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 5:05 pm | Permalink

        You ” leave on WTO terms” guys are going to be awfully disappointed when you find out that it will yield absolutely nothing in economic terms, for a post Brexit UK.

        No country that has trading agreements with the EU, will risk upsetting the EU by doing a deal with the UK that the EU doesn’t like. The three major trading blocs; USA; EU and China/Asean, are, since Trump, telling the WTO what it can and can’t do and when it will be allowed to do it.

        • Edward2
          Posted April 19, 2019 at 7:26 pm | Permalink

          So they are by your own words Acorn, big enough and powerful enough to tell the EU that they will trade with the UK on terms they will agree with the UK and that there is no need for it to upset the EU and their existing deals with them.

        • Andy
          Posted April 19, 2019 at 9:11 pm | Permalink

          My question about the WTO: Who elects them and how can we get rid of them?

          It is a enigma how people who have spent decades whining about unelected bureaucrats in Brussels are so keen on handing power to unelected bureaucrats in Geneva.

          Reply We are under their rules as an EU member!

          • Edward2
            Posted April 20, 2019 at 11:49 am | Permalink

            You can leave the WTO system any time you like.
            But it works for over 90% of world trade.

          • NickC
            Posted April 20, 2019 at 5:37 pm | Permalink

            Andy, The WTO doesn’t start making novel laws to impose on us after we joined. The EU does. The majority of treaties and treaty organisations have a very limited remit – limited to the treaty wording which does not get changed. Uniquely, the EU treaties empower the the EU to make thousands of brand new Regulations, Directives, and Decisions. That’s the difference. But you knew that anyway, didn’t you?

    • Mark B
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:48 am | Permalink

      The Tory hierarchy suffers from the delusion that its voter base has nowhere to go. That may very well be about to change.

      • NickC
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 3:04 pm | Permalink

        Mark B, The Tory party hierarchy has been told ever since Chequers, loudly and clearly, that they were headed for disaster. Now it’s nearly here, it’s only just dawning on them.

        • rose
          Posted April 19, 2019 at 8:25 pm | Permalink

          Is it dawning on them? I thought they despised their supporters and the voluntary party. Don’t they still think they can find voters in the “centre”? Of course as they keep moving further and further left, it isn’t the centre any more and it wants to vote for a real left wing party not a sham one.

  5. Posted April 19, 2019 at 5:50 am | Permalink

    I want to ask just two questions:
    1. Do you think that Mrs May and her Civil Service advisers deliberately planned all along to keep us in the EU? This would mean that they have simply lied and lied all through. There was an article on Conservative Home – I won’t say who by – who first suggested this appalling thought to me.
    2. How dangerous is Nigel Farage to parliamentary democracy?

    • Hope
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 7:47 am | Permalink

      It was clear as Cash pointed out in parliament when the Withdrawal Act was passing parliament May was having her new servitude plan written behind Dexu back contrary to constitution, ministerial code and normal standards of behaviour. This was not an accident. It had to be planned and authorised for Robbins to write and agree with the EU. It would be inconceivable discussions were not had with the EU before the servitude Chequers plan was written.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 8:37 am | Permalink

      I tend to think May did. She certainly planned to either give MPs the choice of either her dire, worthless Brexit in name only or to remain. Clearly she worked behind the backs of the leavers in Cabinet before they had to resign in protest at this. She made no serious attempt to show she was preparted to leave properly. Hence such a dire W/A.

      Nigel Farage is largely what the Conservative Party should be. Small government, a real Brexit, quality only immigration, real democracy, low taxes, free trade, freedom and choice, free speech …. not the highest taxes for 70 years, endless PC drivel, red tape, interference in free contracts and rule by Brussels, identity politics, SJW & socialism that T May wants.

      • GilesB
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 6:21 pm | Permalink

        Great summary.

    • Caterpillar
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 8:54 am | Permalink

      Mike Stallard,

      @2) ‘parliamentary democracy’ – for the UK this is an oxymoron:
      Supremacy and direct effect of EU law.
      FPTP for lower chamber.
      An unelectrd, biased upper chamber.
      A Speaker of questionable impartiality.
      A disempowered executive.

      What is this parliamentary democracy to which you refer?

    • MickN
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 8:58 am | Permalink

      In answer to your question 2 – it seems to me that at this time Nigel Farage IS parliamentary democracy. No one else seems to be showing any signs of it at all.(ERG and Kate Hoey types not included)

    • Travis Zly
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 9:31 am | Permalink

      Immediately the Michael Gove and his wife stabbed Boris Johnson in the back in 2016, I knew we were witnessing a stitch-up. Theresa May has followed Goebbels dictum: The bigger the lie, the more likely are people to believe it.

    • Anonymous
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:02 am | Permalink

      3, How dangerous is parliamentary ‘democracy’ ?

    • NickC
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:02 am | Permalink

      Mike Stallard, I will take up your two questions:
      1. The UK civil service is not monolithic, but it has become corrupted by the EU. The EU ideology has technocrats making the real decisions and Ministers (politicians) just signing them off. The “Kit-Kat” tapes showed that the intention to defraud Leave voters has been ongoing with EU connivance. So yes they have lied and lied.
      2. I have met Nigel Farage very briefly on a number of occasions. He is a great guy, and what you see is what you get. Yet personality cults are always dangerous in my view.

    • graham1946
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:39 am | Permalink

      1) Yes. You could have read it on this blog as myself and several others suggested it as soon as May was made leader. It seems to have been the plan of most Tories at the time, having had the shock of the people voting against their wishes in the referendum.
      2) Farage may be the saviour of democracy. Under FPTP with Tories and Labour (especially if they connive at defeating the referendum) running things between them, democracy is already dead. The whole thing need re-organising, with votes meaning something and not just in a few marginals. In the local elections, I have the an invidious choice. I will not vote this time for probably the first time in my life. Spoilt papers count for nothing, low turnout sends a message.

      • Original Richard
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 9:41 pm | Permalink

        Abstaining is not an option for leavers as low turn-out does not worry the remain parties, such as the Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems, Greens or SNP as long as one of their candidates wins.

        It is therefore important to vote for independents to prevent a remain party candidate winning.

        BTW, spoiled ballot papers are recorded (at least in my constituency) and numbers would be published if large enough to be newsworthy.

    • Gary C
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:39 am | Permalink

      “How dangerous is Nigel Farage to parliamentary democracy?”

      What democracy? At the moment democracy is dead.

    • Ignoramus
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 11:28 am | Permalink

      What evidence/argument can you produce to suggest Farage is a threat to parliamentary democracy?

    • Tad Davison
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 11:31 am | Permalink

      Why should Nigel Farage be dangerous to parliamentary democracy? He’s trying to get parliament to uphold democracy and answer to the people, not do just as they think they will.

    • Andy
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 11:37 am | Permalink

      To answer;
      1. Yes. I say this because having read the Withdrawal Agreement no one committed to Leaving the EU and respecting the Consitituion could have contemplated signing it never mind negotiating it. On this score I think the article elsewhere by John Petley is correct: the aim was to produce a dreadful agreement that maintained as much EU reglation and alignment as possible thus smoothing the path to rejoining in about 5 years, on infinately worse terms than at present and those are pretty terrible.
      2. Nigel Farage is not ‘dangerous’ to Parliamentary democracy – quite the contrary actually. What is dangerous is people like May who have lied and lied and lied, who have been dishonourable to a degree that is quite breathtaking and hold public office. I am actually quite shocked at what has gone on, and this behaviour by that dreadful woman and by others is a grave threat to democracy and to the intergrity of the State.

      • Tad Davison
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 4:15 pm | Permalink

        Great post. Quite different from the ‘other’ Andy.

    • Robert Lee
      Posted April 20, 2019 at 4:58 pm | Permalink

      Who has destroyed parliamentary democracy? Liblabcon.
      The champion of democracy will be Garage.

  6. Everhopeful
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 6:05 am | Permalink

    Mrs May’s only concern has to be her personal standing/ kneeling re Brussels.
    Corbyn obviously wants her out so he can ramp up the creation of Venezuela in our once green and pleasant land.
    Easter is concerned with atonement but can the destruction of our lives and country by politicians EVER be forgiven?
    And the lies. Oh the lies……

    • NickC
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:14 am | Permalink

      Everhopeful, No one would negotiate for a even a house on the same basis that Theresa May, Jeremy Corbyn, and most MPs have negotiated with the EU.

      There are two basics in negotiations: if you ask for something you will have to give something; and you never ever say that you won’t walk away.

      So the only conclusion we can reach is that the UK’s current position was intentional in order to keep us in the EU. That’s before all the other evidence such as the “Kit-Kat” tapes, Chequers, and the dWA itself. We have been deceived and lied to on an extraordinary scale.

    • Mark B
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:54 am | Permalink

      I am all for a bit of JC and some ‘Venezuelisation.’ No really ! Because it is high time that people started putting the value of toilet paper above that of the latest smartphone.

      • NickC
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 3:11 pm | Permalink

        Mark B, At one point in the 1970s there were neither smartphones (understandably), nor toilet paper. Younger people just don’t know what Labour is (in)capable of.

    • Ian wragg
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 11:52 am | Permalink

      Now we will have a grand coalition with the Liebor, SNP and Limp Dumbs all voting for the WA to prevent elections.
      May will be invincible as she signs away fisheries, FoM and Gibraltar for a one sided trade agreement.
      The EU will continue to fleece us and May will be proud of a job well done.

      • APL
        Posted April 21, 2019 at 7:09 am | Permalink

        Ian Wragg: “The EU will continue to fleece us and May will be proud of a job well done”

        Then lets make sure the next government isn’t one run by either Labour or Tories. There is a sizable Labour faction that voted leave, they can’t be too happy at the current situation.

        Once we’ve our own government, it’s time to start the prosecutions for subverting the constitution.

        Theresa May, defendant number 1.

    • Tad Davison
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 12:25 pm | Permalink

      I’m afraid I don’t have a very high opinion of pious people. They seldom practise what they preach. I have often tried to understand their minds but it is hard to do. As you rightly say, Easter is a time for atonement, but it’s as if having been given absolution, church-goers just press the reset button then carry on doing injustices to others until the next time. That isn’t what Christianity is supposed to be about..

      Lying is one of the worst sins of all. Theresa May is a passed master at it. The idea is not to press that reset button each time, but to ‘go forth and sin no more’.

      Judgement day for May might come sooner than she anticipated if the polling figures are somewhere near.

  7. Lifelogic
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 6:08 am | Permalink

    I forced myself to watch the absurd propaganda programme “Climate Change the Facts” yesterday. All the usual alarmist drivel and bias that we expect of the BBC. Does David Attenborough really believe this guff or does he just want the fee? On climate alarmism the BBC always ignores reality and the real science and merely pushes endless absurdly one sided religion and propaganda.

    As indeed they do with their endless pro EU bias, their magic money tree, lefty economic and much else. It is suitably debunked on the notalotofpeopleknowthat site.

    Is the government (and dire Mayor Kahn) going to do anything about the illegally blocked bridges and attempts to close down Heathrow. Or do they welcome the distraction from their gross Brexit incompetence? It seems the BBC’s alarmists are behind the protesters anyway.

    • Dave Andrews
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 7:41 am | Permalink

      The truth is, the government could do something about it by stopping immigration from low consumption regions of the world to the high consumption UK. They could also bin plans for building new houses, leaving the land as sweet English meadow. All very ecological, but the climate alarmists don’t seem to take this line.

    • Bob
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 8:21 am | Permalink

      BBC’s Samira Ahmed was the subject of My Teenage Diary on Tuesday.
      She said that “it’s important to challenge the official versions of things…in life there are two kinds of people, there’s the “collaborators” and there’s the “resistance” the host replies “that’s troubling, because we’re on the BBC!” she replies, “you have to be inside the Establishment to change it”.

      It’s worth a listen just to see what a completely delusional bubble these people exist in.

    • Fedupsoutherner
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 9:17 am | Permalink

      LL. You are a braver man than me. As soon as I see the words BBC and Attenborough I switch off.

      • NickC
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 3:13 pm | Permalink

        Ditch your TV and ditch the BBC TV tax. You won’t regret it.

    • Anonymous
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:08 am | Permalink

      Population growth of 1 billion people every 13 years.

      The only thing that is NOT being mentioned in need of prevention and the biggest problem of all.

      —-

      If mankind averts a collision course with an extinction asteroid as a result of our abilities after industrialisation, would the world have been better for having us or not ?

      • NickC
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 3:28 pm | Permalink

        Anon, Current world population growth has slowed considerably. Depending on the source, projections show a peak as early as 2040 (Lutz) or as late as 2100 (UN). From then on, population is expected to decline.

        The best way to reduce fertility is by allowing free enterprise to eliminate poverty thereby providing education, sanitation, insurance and disease control. Coercion is not acceptable, if that is what you mean by “prevention”.

        • Anonymous
          Posted April 19, 2019 at 4:31 pm | Permalink

          My point is this.

          Go to windmills and solar panels as much as you like. The planet will not keep up with unsustainable levels of population growth (albeit slower – that’s if projections are right) and certainly not at the BBC’s insistence that global living standards are raised.

          To do this people here must get poorer. Very much poorer. I don’t think they realise.

          The best way to reduce ‘fertility’ is to inculcate a culture in which fathers stick around with one mum and look after their kids properly.

          I just love being lectured by people a lot richer and with a much higher carbon footprint than me, most eco warriors.

          • APL
            Posted April 21, 2019 at 7:17 am | Permalink

            Anon: “Very much poorer. I don’t think they realise. ”

            Not only do they not realize, they don’t even think about it.

            Our technological civilisation is based on cheap freely available energy.

    • Ignoramus
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 11:37 am | Permalink

      Quite agree. Mrs May is on holiday in Wales, she could easily return to London and take charge. The trouble is that she would not know what to do.

      Why do no reporters actually ask the demonstrators what they specifically want before they will stop displaying their angst? Why does no government spokesman or minister point out that the UK is already doing more than any other country to take measures against the alleged causes of “climate change”?

      What next – militant vegans? If only it would rain the way it often does over bank holidays.

    • Tad Davison
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 11:59 am | Permalink

      How about that Green party supporter, Margaret Howard, nailing her colours to the mast and perhaps telling us about the effect her party’s policy of supporting free movement has on our green open spaces and the loss of prime agricultural land. Greatly looking forward to her explanation.

      • margaret howard
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 3:35 pm | Permalink

        Tad

        ” her party’s policy of supporting free movement”

        You shouldn’t try and mislead people. The party supports “Free movement within Europe”

        The following information explains it best:

        “A recent study by the London School of Economics has blown apart a number of key myths around migration saying: “Immigrants pay more in taxes than they take out in welfare and use of public services. UK-born individuals, on average, take out more in welfare and benefits than they pay in taxes. So immigrants help to reduce the budget deficit. There is little evidence that immigrants have negative effects on crime, education, health or social housing.”

        In addition less than 10% of UK land is used for housing etc, some say as little as 3% is. Next time you fly over the country look out of the window and all you will see are vast, green spaces with the occasional village or small town. Regions like my own East Anglia and many neighbouring counties are virtually empty.

        • Anonymous
          Posted April 19, 2019 at 4:33 pm | Permalink

          So why is our country in such debt and why is everywhere so overcrowded and congested ?

        • Tad Davison
          Posted April 19, 2019 at 4:49 pm | Permalink

          You obviously haven’t flown over Cambridge lately, but then I guess you’re trying to limit your carbon footprint. It’s all new housing and major road building programmes designed to alleviate the problems with the creaking infrastructure caused by mass immigration. It’s so bad, a simple trip out requires strategic planning.

          Your leader, Caroline Lucas, looks directly into the television cameras and in a plea to remainers, tells us she wants free movement. Yet these people have to live somewhere, and once prime agricultural land has gone, it’s gone for good. Ms Lucas makes no reference to the long-term damage immigration causes to the environment, and that sits ill with the protests going on in the capital and elsewhere right now. I suggest the two positions are diametrically opposed to each other. What say you?

          • margaret howard
            Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:32 pm | Permalink

            Tad

            I know Cambridge quite well my son having been a student at Trinity College in the 1980s. It was overcrowded then but a quick check revealed that the population has increased by about 16 000 people from 1991 to 2011

            You will find that rather than immigrants the figures can be explained by the city becoming a Hi Tech giant with over 1000 companies making it known locally as ‘Silicon Fen’ – the largest such development in Europe.

            Another estimate reckons that this has attracted as many as 3000 other small companies servicing this industry. They all have to be housed.

            Once outside the city and its environs you will find the usual green and pleasant countryside this part of England is known for.

          • Tad Davison
            Posted April 20, 2019 at 9:16 am | Permalink

            I have lived in Cambridge since 1992 and seen the many changes. What used to be green and pleasant land not so many years ago, is no longer. The pressures upon wildlife are great. My eldest two kids had to move well away from the city to be able to afford a house – at opposite ends of the county because Cambridge prices became so expensive. God alone knows how our youngest will ever get into the property ladder such is the demand. Even shopping in Cambridge is a nightmare and prices so prohibitively expensive, requiring my wife and I to drive many miles away albeit in our frugal Euro 6 diesel car.

            When the necessary skills aren’t available within the UK, we should be able to select whom we want from elsewhere, but unfettered free movement makes no sense at all. I often quote the example of the tea-trolley pusher I conversed with at the local hospital. As you know, this nation is absolutely desperate for tea-trolley pushers to the extent we need to import them, and this one happily told me about the two women he had got pregnant and how many kids he had fathered with both. He doesn’t live with either, he gets in-work tax credits, and needless to say, his contributions (if any) towards their upkeep are minimal.

            So we see, one type of immigrant brings valuable skills, the other just adds to the demand upon precious resources and infrastructure.

            Oh to get back control of our laws, our money, and our borders and put these anomalies right!

        • Edward2
          Posted April 19, 2019 at 5:08 pm | Permalink

          Well Margaret if that report is right all we need to do to become a very rich country is to encourage 10 million new arrivals a year to join us in the UK.

        • Fedupsoutherner
          Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:33 pm | Permalink

          Yes, well Margaret, we have to grow crops somewhere and some of us enjoy green spaces to walk in. We don’t all want to live in a concrete jungle.

        • APL
          Posted April 21, 2019 at 7:22 am | Permalink

          Margaret Howard: “You shouldn’t try and mislead people.”

          Really, Ms Howard, that’s rich!

          Have you yet explained to us how the UK, being a net contributor to the EU budget gets back more than it pays in?

          You’ve been challenged on the assertion a several times, yet you keep posting it.

        • matthu
          Posted April 22, 2019 at 2:41 pm | Permalink

          It is not sufficient for immigrants to contribute marginally more in taxes than they claim in benefits. They also need to compensate for the vast additional expenditure in capital infrastructure necessary to cope with the rapidly increasing population.

    • margaret howard
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 3:40 pm | Permalink

      Lifelogic

      ” On climate alarmism the BBC always ignores reality and the real science and merely pushes endless absurdly one sided religion and propaganda.”

      You are obviously an expert on the subject. Could you give us your reasons why the BBC is wrong and you are right?

      • Lifelogic
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 4:46 pm | Permalink

        Indeed I studied Math/Physics/Chaotic systems and Electronics (Cambridge then Manchester) and can, but others do it far better than me. Listen and read what sensible people like Ivar Giaever, Freeman Dyson, Patrick Moore, Richard Lindzen and many similar honest scientist have to say.

        There is a good list on Wiki “List of scientists who disagree with the scientific ‘consensus’ on global warming” . Not that I think it is really a ‘consensus’ (other than among art grads at the BBC) more a case ‘group think’, research grant seeking, excuses to tax more, people on the make, a religion or people seeking promotion or green grants for renewables. Or MPs acting as consultants for the ‘green’ industries

        How can anyone predict the climate for 100 years time without knowing (over this long period) the sun’s output, volcanic activity, world populations, when nuclear fusion will become practical, future scientific discoveries, meteor impacts, future infection diseases, tree and plant diseases and evolutions, genetic variations that may occur and many billions of other thing one needs? Even then you couldn’t do it.

        They cannot even tell you the world climate for next month accurately!

        • RichardM
          Posted April 19, 2019 at 7:56 pm | Permalink

          Nonsense Lifelogic. The author of notalotofpeopleknowthat is not a climatologist. He has no credentials, expertise or credibility. He has not debunked anything.
          The ‘sensible’ people you quote are almost all paid off by the fossil fuel industry.

          • margaret howard
            Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

            RichardM

            Thank you Richard. You have saved me a reply.

          • Posted April 19, 2019 at 11:28 pm | Permalink

            Nearly everyone is ”paid off” by someone. It’s naive to think that isn’t so. If one has the scientific background to sort the wheat from the chaff, then that’s what matters. Whose wheat and whose chaff though?

        • Fedupsoutherner
          Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:35 pm | Permalink

          Spot on L/L.

      • Edward2
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 5:24 pm | Permalink

        The level of hyperbole in this recent demonstration is ridiculous.
        The movement has morphed from global warming to climate change to the latest which is, “we are all doomed”
        Humans have lived and survived on this planet for tens of thousands of years in areas varying from frozen wastes to very hot deserts.
        To claim youngsters may be the last generation is plainly silly.

        I’m all for an effort to reduce pollution.
        I’m all for clean energy.
        I think technology will develop clean low CO2 solutions to our current problems.
        But without profits and capitalism and democracy none of these things will happen.

        The protestors are in the wrong place.
        The UK has spent billions reducing its CO2 output and has, like the USA made great savings.
        If the UK got to zero carbon China and India would make up that reduction to zero inside one year.

        • Fred H
          Posted April 19, 2019 at 6:38 pm | Permalink

          Edward. you are SO right. The UK is guilty for maybe 1% of the problem as it always was – coal burning industry, oil/diesel etc. The real damage is being done in China, India and still the USA. Protestors are rent-a-mob who cannot see that blocking the offendors embassies is the only way to get attention.

    • Andy
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 9:56 pm | Permalink

      Here’s a thought about man-made climate change.

      Maybe the 95% plus of climate scientists – along with experts on Mother Nature like Sir David Attenborough – know better than you and Lord Lawson, a man who has barely been right on any issue of note this millennium?

      My view is simple. You may be correct. Mankind may be playing no role in climate change, the whole thing could be an entirely natural process and there may be no consequences. The evidence suggests this is not the case but the fact remains that it is possible.

      But we have one planet. There is no back up option if you are wrong. Your children, your grandchildren and their descendants may not get a second chance if you are wrong. And the evidence suggests you are. In the long run your view may prove correct – but we cannot risk listening to you right now.

      My house probably won’t burn down. But I have insurance in case it does.

      • Edward2
        Posted April 20, 2019 at 11:54 am | Permalink

        This is why we are acting to mitigate the effects of climate change.
        You talk as if nothing is being done Andy.
        Billions are being diverted from other important areas into meeting the legal requirements of the Climate Change Act.
        And with success.
        43% reduction in carbon emissions since 1990.

  8. Newmania
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 6:21 am | Permalink

    Latest Poll on Brexit, Coms Res 16.4.2019: Remain 52%, Brexit 38%, Don`t know 10%.
    So where are the other Remain votes? Many Labour voters are remainers. London, for example, is dominated by Remain Labour. Conservative voters are presumably a mix of soft remain and soft Brexit who consider the possible of Mr Corbyn their overriding fear. I sympathise.
    The fact the country is no decisively turning against Brexit is obscured by this poll .The fact it is turning against the Conservative reality of Brexit is clear and about the only thing the entire country agrees about.

    • Richard1
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 7:33 am | Permalink

      Polls that count are elections. If LibDem + CUK + SNP get 15-20% of the votes we can conclude there is no great public call to cancel Brexit. Surely anyone who believes stopping Brexit is the overriding priority – as many continuity remain types keep saying – they would vote for one of these? Anyone voting TBP or UKIP favours not only Brexit but WTO now id have thought?

      • Richard1
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 7:58 am | Permalink

        Actually you’d have to add greens to stop Brexit so maybe it’s 25% for that.

      • Andy
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:00 pm | Permalink

        I agree that elections are the polls which count. And at the last election in 2017 voters overwhelmingly rejected a hard Brexit. Will you be telling Steve Baker and Mark Francois? (Maybe Nancy Pelosi told them when she schooled them on the Ireland border issue?)

        • NickC
          Posted April 20, 2019 at 5:51 pm | Permalink

          Andy, You are being selective. We had a specific poll on whether to Remain in the EU under the conditions negotiated by David Cameron or to Leave the EU. We chose to leave the EU treaties, as described by both campaigns and TEU Article 50 itself. That is what you call “hard Brexit” – which is merely your propaganda term.

    • Roy Grainger
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 7:46 am | Permalink

      But far from all Remain Labour as you call them actually want to revoke A50. They want the referendum result respected, albeit in some sort of watered-down way. Jeremy Corbyn is one, so he tells us. For this reason you need to be careful how you interpret polls. An answer to the question “If there was a second referendum how would you vote”’ does not correlate exactly with the question “Do you think there should be a second referendum”, a valid answer to that is “Remain” and “No”.

      • Newmania
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 3:56 pm | Permalink

        The only poll on whether a final deal should be put to a Public vote I know of was by Kantar based on field work ending 8.4.2019 and it had yes at over 50% and no at just overt 30% .
        Your game is not a good one for you as there is a gulf between the hard Brexit edge and the soft middle who are surprisingly willing to compromise around a Norway style option
        No Deal is loathed by almost everyone outside its one cause crusaders , something over twice as many people support Remain

        • Edward2
          Posted April 19, 2019 at 5:10 pm | Permalink

          Only problem NM is the EU refuse to move from the Withdrawal Agreement terms.

        • NickC
          Posted April 20, 2019 at 5:54 pm | Permalink

          Newmania, That is false. 17.4m people voted for no deal, because no deal was on offer. “Hard Brexit” (a Remain propaganda term) has already won in the real poll on 23 June 2016.

    • Caterpillar
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 9:22 am | Permalink

      Newmania,

      I think there has been a disgraceful term used by Labour, and others, “Conservative Brexit”. This has been a narrative to try to turn non-Conservative voters away from their considered and thoughtful Leave vote, it appears to be typical politicking manipulation rather than actually doing justice to the people’s vote to become sovereign (allowing UK policy, whether ‘progressive’, ‘protectionist’, national, international … to be determined by UK ). So the opposition parties have been successful at opposing but only to the extent that they are happy to throw the electorate’s hopes to the wind for the sake of their own power. In terms of Conservative voters who support Leave, I guess many don’t see the WA as Leave and would prefer Remain to the WA (which isn’t Leave).

      There has been a clear institutional message that the electorate don’t matter, only the elite do. The fact that Labour has gleefully stopped no deal is consistent with how low the UK has reached. A party supposedly of the people rejecting the people’s vote of 2016 shows where that party is. Labour could have allowed no deal to occur, come to power and been as socialist as it likes.

    • Anonymous
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:13 am | Permalink

      ‘Reality’ is that you get Remain plus Watson/Corbyn remember.

      Is that better than Leave (WTO) without Watson/Corbyn ?

      We would not be in this mess had Liberals such as yourself not posed as Conservatives and hijacked the party. A referendum at the time of Maastricht would have averted much damage.

    • NickC
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:24 am | Permalink

      Newmania, So why, in your opinion, does a majority in the Referendum not matter, where a majority in an opinion poll 3 years later does matter?

    • graham1946
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:46 am | Permalink

      The country is not tuning decisively against Brexit. ‘The Conservative reality of Brexit’ is not Brexit. The people know that and are not as stupid as the political class thinks. That’s what they are against. We will see in the EU elections how much sympathy the public have with the EU. I am beginning to doubt they will be given the opportunity as the Remoaners and the Tories may well vote through the surrender document rather than face the humiliation.

    • Tad Davison
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 12:36 pm | Permalink

      Somewhere near where the polls were just before the referendum then.

  9. Alan Jutson
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 6:25 am | Permalink

    Rest assured John the only way Mrs May will look at these polls is to believe that she should still try and get her deal through, as she actually believes this is Brexit, she is of course completely and utterly deluded, but try again she will !

    I only hope enough Mp’s realise they will be committing Political suicide if they vote for her so called deal given its unpopularity with the people.

    • Tad Davison
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 12:44 pm | Permalink

      Alan,

      I don’t agree that May believes for a moment that her deal is Brexit. She knows very well what it is. It is a remainer’s charter and fully designed to keep the UK in the European Union. We should not imbue that woman with any honesty or integrity whatsoever. She has proven herself to be totally bereft of both.

  10. agricola
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 6:27 am | Permalink

    Your analysis is correct, but I fear that May is so myopic she will think she can bumble on in the same old way. Do the men in suits say enough is enough now or do they wait for the local and euro election results. The sooner she goes the better, because to renew any faith in the conservatives as a government they need to reinvent themselves starting with a blank sheet of paper the day she goes. I hope we are out by the time of conference, because said conference needs to be a re- statement of what conservatism is about. If you cede the field to another true pro brexit party through inaction you are done for. This would be sad but inevitable. Sad because we would lose a none revolutionary way of solving problems.

    • Doug Powell
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 8:28 am | Permalink

      Exactly!
      The late John Mortimer coined a phrase that totally fits the PM:

      SHE WHO MUST BE OBEYED!

      She has no vision – no pragmatism – no empathy – no understanding of our history (patriotism) – no understanding of the present situation – oblivious to the impending doom. Her one and only driving force is: I MUST BE OBEYED!

    • Tad Davison
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 1:04 pm | Permalink

      Well said.

  11. Hale Post
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 6:30 am | Permalink

    Your “advice to the government” is one of the few things on which there is a large majority in Parliament – a large majority that we will NOT be leaving with no deal. Thankfully your irresponsible desire to jump off the cliff and destroy our economy is not shared by other MPs

    • NigelE
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 8:33 am | Permalink

      Nonsense. Over half the UK’s trade is with non-EU countries under WTO rules. This trade has already ‘jumped off a cliff’ as you put it and has survived, nay is thriving and growing.

      What’s so difficult with moving our EU trade onto the same basis? Only Remainers’ mis-perceptions.

    • Jagman84
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 8:35 am | Permalink

      You do know what the EU have in store for its citizens in a short few years time, don’t you? It’s pretty much what they and Mrs May/ Mr Robbins are trying to foist on us, via the WA surrender pact. David Cameron stated that the UK could never join the Euro or become part of a Federal Europe. This meant that our exit from the EU was pretty much inevitable. May’s antics are an attempt to trap us into such an entity.

    • michael mcgrath
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 9:18 am | Permalink

      HP

      Can you please explain to me why trading under WTO terms, as does the world outside the EU, will be “jumping off a cliff” and will “destroy our economy”

      • Pauleta
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 6:32 pm | Permalink

        O dear! Dont you know that not a single country in the world trades under WTO terms? Every country does deals!

        • Al
          Posted April 20, 2019 at 2:00 am | Permalink

          And once we have left the EU on WTO terms we can arrange those deals. Currently we are unable to negotiate them, because the EU does not permit it. Nor does Ms. May’s Withdrawal agreement.

          In one sector this makes no difference: the effect of EU Digital VAT was to create a barrier to entry (a 0% Vat threshold and huge data storage requirements) that effectively blocked many small businesses from trading with the EU at all between 2015 and the slow replacement of the thresholds: which began in late 2018 and is still ongoing. Those affected businesses that survived already have to trade outside the EU under WTO or they have no market.

    • agricola
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 11:21 am | Permalink

      You only emphasise your ignorance of business, import/export, and the economy in general. The acoustic mine in the path of our economy and well being is not Brexit in whatever form it takes, it is Corbyn and his toytown economics. Continued presence in the EU would continue to choke our economic progress while funding a political construct that the majority of us do not believe in. Only those who are figuratively afraid of the dark feel the need to cling to the skirt of the EU.

    • Posted April 19, 2019 at 11:31 am | Permalink

      You are obviously in thrall to Project Fear, HP.
      But you’re obviously a remainer – never a comment without an insult. Nothing new there, then. It makes your ‘argument’ completely nugatory.

    • Andy
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 11:41 am | Permalink

      How exactly will leaving the EU with no Withdrawal Agreement ‘destroy our economy’ ?? Perhaps you will be good enough to explain in detail this proposition.

  12. Old Albion
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 6:35 am | Permalink

    The whole EU elections issue is a monumental waste of time and money. If every one of (dis)UK’s seats was won by Brexit supporting individuals the (dis)UK would still be out voted on every issue, just has it always has been.
    Taking part in the elections is just a part of the delaying tactics being used by the traitorous MP’s in the House of Commons led by Mrs May.
    The only aim in all of this almost three years of madness, is to overturn the 2016 ref. result.

    • agricola
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 11:30 am | Permalink

      You are sort of right, however the point of the EU election from a UK electors point of view is to put a bomb under the thinking of all those MPs we despise in the HoC. After it one hopes that they realise that their anti democratic silly play politics has no place in our future. If they get it wrong after a strong Brexit result it spells the end of the conservative party as we know it.

  13. William1995
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 6:41 am | Permalink

    As long as you have May in charge you are going to haemorrhage votes. Brexiteer MPs need to be spending every waking moment thinking about how to replace her immediately.

    • Alan Jutson
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 8:00 am | Permalink

      William

      They need to be promoting the benefits and positives of a WTO deal to as many Mp’s as they can, as this is the only sensible route left to avoid a massive loss of faith in our political system.

      Indeed it was only ever the real solution for the Government to get full control back from the EU.

  14. jerry
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 6:45 am | Permalink

    Trying to predict how us mere plebs will actually vote is a mugs game, best avoided, for one there are just far to many variables between now and polling day in around a months time.

    How much of a mugs game; The opinion polls at this time back in 2017 told proudly us, should Mrs May choose to hold a General election, the Tory party would be returned with something like a 200+ seat majority and Labour would face the total collapse of their support base (not forgetting that the three main UK parties would become extinct in Scotland)…

  15. GilesB
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 6:45 am | Permalink

    You should announce that if May and Corbyn conspire to pass the Withdrawal Agreement, that you personally will vote against the Government on a vote of no confidence.

    Jeremy will snap up your offer, preventing the WA from becoming law.

    Let’s trust the people

    • jerry
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:51 am | Permalink

      @GilesB; That makes no sense at all. Would it not encourage Labour to vote thought the WA (which in very short order would become gain Royal Assent, thus become law) on a four line whip (no that wasn’t a typo!), if by doing so Tory Brexiteers will then vote down their own govt should Labour bring forward a No Confidence vote?…

      “Let’s trust the people”

      Except that is exactly the last thing hard-line Tory Brexiteers want, anything but allowing the people to decide How we should leave.

      • MickN
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 1:58 pm | Permalink

        “Except that is exactly the last thing hard-line Tory Brexiteers want, anything but allowing the people to decide How we should leave.”

        For God sake change the record. The people HAVE decided by a majority the size of the population of Birmingham. You lost – get over it!

        • jerry
          Posted April 19, 2019 at 4:40 pm | Permalink

          @MickN; Democracy, do you even understand the meaning of the word, never mind the referendum question actually asked back in 2016.

          The people have never been asked HOW the UK should Leave, just If we should leave the European Union. The hard right are playing a very dangerous game in trying to circumvent the very democracy they cite. There is no certainty that ‘Momentum’ will be defeated within the Labour party, nor country come the next GE, suffering from tunnel vision some Brexiteers are to willing to set parliamentary precedents that the hard left will find very useful too…

          Just to be clear, as some people obviously have difficulties understanding; I want a WTO exit, I’m am not asking for a referendum to re-run the If question [1], I want a referendum to expand on the already decided and binding Leave vote, unlike so many so called Brexiteers I believe that a WTO exit can be won at the ballot box, once the MSM has to actually allow explanation under the strict election rules during the campaigning period. It is the lack of a How instruction that is killing Brexit as Remain can play the numbers advantage found in the Remain orientated HoC.

          [1] those who are pushing the so called “People’s Vote” are simply as wrong as those who think as you do MickN, both groups logic fail a democratic test

      • NickC
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 3:32 pm | Permalink

        Jerry, We voted to Leave the EU by leaving the EU treaties. That’s how!

      • GilesB
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 6:29 pm | Permalink

        It needs more than one vote to become law.

        Tell Corbyn that after the first vote, you’ll support him bringing down the Government before the subsequent votes.

        Restoring democracy (requiring politicians to keep to the spirit of their manifestos) is more important than the difference between Libertarianism and Socialism. Leaving the EU is also more important than Labour vs Conservative. If we don’t leave there is no UK to govern!

        • jerry
          Posted April 20, 2019 at 7:10 am | Permalink

          @GilesB; Three in fact, plus one in the Lords (assuming no amendments), all done in one days sitting, then Royal Assent the same night, as we saw with the Letwin/Cooper Bill the other week.

          So even if Corbyn did as you suggest and tabled a NC motion after the First Reading vote the NC motion would not be debated until the next days sitting at the earliest, to late to stop the WA becoming law…

    • Mark B
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 11:07 am | Permalink

      I agree and have said this here before.

      An implied threat and a quiet word in Labour’s ear is what is needed.

      What is source for the Gander, is sauce for the Goose 😉

  16. Kevin
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 6:47 am | Permalink

    If it is the case that the electorate are politically sovereign (while Parliament is legally sovereign), one of the principal motives for voting Leave must surely have been to stop and reverse the alienation of our sovereignty by means of international treaties. Far from implementing the People’s Vote, the Withdrawal Treaty appears to be one of the worst examples of that process of alienation.

    • jerry
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:55 am | Permalink

      @Kevin; Best the UK not only leave the EU but also leaves the UN too if we so detest the “alienation of our sovereignty by means of international treaties”…

      • NickC
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 3:40 pm | Permalink

        Jerry, Would it not be best to define how much sovereignty we lose with each treaty first? I have nothing against a treaty to handle double taxation, but am completely opposed to the TEU and TFEU (and the dWA) which hand extensive new law-making authority to the EU.

        • jerry
          Posted April 19, 2019 at 5:02 pm | Permalink

          @NickC; I think that was my point! Leaving the EU, even on the most fundamental of WTO terms, will not remove the UK from of the scope of the European human rights treaties or courts etc. as they have nothing directly to do with the EU, pre-dating even the ECSC never mind the TFEU (EEC).

          • NickC
            Posted April 20, 2019 at 6:00 pm | Permalink

            Jerry, You said UN, not ECHR. It is still important to decide how much sovereignty we lose, and then whether that is a price worth paying. In my view the EU treaties are not worth it, but some other treaties are.

  17. G Wilson
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 6:50 am | Permalink

    Unfortunately, what seems most likely to happen is that the two main parties will avoid EU elections by colluding to stitch us into perpetual customs union membership.

    The only way we’re going to free ourselves from EU control is to elect a completely different party that will actually do what the British people want.

    • Andy
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:03 pm | Permalink

      Polls suggest Mr Farage will get around 30% of the vote. Would suggest a result represent what the British people actually want? What about the other 70%?

      • NickC
        Posted April 20, 2019 at 6:02 pm | Permalink

        Andy, You keep telling us the Referendum Leave majority does not matter. So why should a Remain majority matter? Be careful what you wish for.

  18. Sharon Jagger
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 6:50 am | Permalink

    I think Corbyn is determined to bring down the Conservatives, come what may such is his desire that a general election will ensue!

    Mrs May has an insane and almost manic desire to keep us in the EU by one means or another. Such is this desire, I believe she is prepared to sacrifice the Conservative party, democracy and the country to achieve it,

    The Europarl votes is as much a message to the rest of parliament as it is to her. Mrs May will never resign until her WA is signed or we’ve voted to remain! The polls are a message to Parliament to get rid of Mrs May…..and get us out of the EU – on WTO rules!!!

  19. Fred H
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 6:59 am | Permalink

    You have got it so clearly. How strange to witness the months after months stretching into years, where the 2 leaders are hell bent on making themselves unelectable. Sadly the only possible way they might survive the crashing out is voter apathy. Just how many voters will continue the generational ‘I always vote for them’ policy remains to be seen. Perhaps we are indeed reaching a tipping point.

  20. Christine
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 7:01 am | Permalink

    My feeling is this change in voting goes beyond Brexit. Both the main parties have been letting us down for decades. People are sick and tired of being treated as some sort of cash cow to allow politicians to give OUR money away in wasteful foreign aid, something we never voted for. Allowing anyone who wants to come to our country to stay. Constantly putting up taxes when they promise to reduce them. Losing control of law and order. I could go on. The British are sick of broken promises and we now see the Brexit Party as a way of signalling our displeasure. Hopefully they can go on to breakthrough in a General Election.

    • javelin
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 7:31 am | Permalink

      Totally agree

      £14 bn Foreign Aid
      £13bn Police

      Please don’t say there is austerity in the police when we have the luxury of diverting more money to per projects of lobbyists than the whole police budget. Politicans simply care more for appearing virtuous than actually stopping crime.

      • Fedupsoutherner
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 1:46 pm | Permalink

        Javelin, I think I read that aid is going up to £20b. Utter madness while our own citizens pay more for less. NHS bucking, student fees abhorrent, old people going without, overcrowded prisons, high taxes and more being introduced. Its the policy of madness.

        • Ian Pennell
          Posted April 19, 2019 at 6:17 pm | Permalink

          @ Fedupsoutherner

          Our esteemed host would agree with these sentiments! Britain is paying more taxes for less. Our cities are not safe, infrastructure is falling to bits and if you (or more likely nowadays- a yob) break your leg you cannot get it seen to for days- by which time gangrene will have set in.

          Time for radical policies. Scrap foreign Aid, End EU payments, Scrap HS2 and put a land value tax on wealthy land- owners-
          So that
          1) We have our roads and railways repaired.
          2) We have Police on the streets (armed where necessary!)
          3) We have enough doctors and nurses and hospitals to ensure prompt treatment for whoever needs it.
          4) Businesses and the general population enjoy lower taxes- which would provide a much- needed boost to the economy.

          Perhaps I should become a politician to do something about it- and a whole host of other matters our main-stream MPs wont touch (like the millions of fathers banned from seeing their kids due to spurious allegations from their ex’es)!!

          Ian Pennell

        • APL
          Posted April 21, 2019 at 7:48 am | Permalink

          So if we canceled foreign aid (£14Bn soon to be £20Bn ) and withdraw from the EU ( another £14Bn ). We could offer 28,000 asylum illiterate seekers and their families £1,000,000 to return to their own countries. And that’s just this year.

          What better atonement for our sins of Empire than to inject a huge capital investment into the economies of these asylum seekers countries. It even might go some way to assuaging the hatred Tony Blair and David Cameron have earned us for their unnecessary self aggrandizing adventures in Iraq and Libya.

          It would be a grass roots injection of funds and would by pass the NGOs, and the politicians children ‘doing good’ in their gap years.

  21. Roy Grainger
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 7:02 am | Permalink

    The polling is:

    37% soft Brexit fudge
    34% hard Leave
    29% hard Remain

    So I suppose May will say her option is top. Also, Andy please note, 71% want a form of Leave. If I was May I might think this polling suggests a 3-way STV loser’s vote referendum would be a good option and result in her deal being the eventual winner.

    • Richard1
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 9:31 am | Permalink

      Yes this seems to be right. The problem is soft Brexit fudge is pointless, unless the fudge is in things that don’t matter that much such as immigration and a bit of money. But If it means being locked into the EU economically, and precludes an independent trade policy through such measures as the CU & ‘regulatory alignment’ then it’s worse than remain. This is the real dilemma.

    • jerry
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 5:40 pm | Permalink

      @Roy Grainger; The problem those who want a WTO exit face at the moment is getting the whys and wherefores of WTO rules explained freely and fairly within the MSM, that problem is removed by law during the official campaigning period of a referendum or elections – hence why those pushing for a “People’s Vote” only want a soft and hard Remain -head you loose, tails we win- choice on the ballot paper…

  22. David Maples
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 7:07 am | Permalink

    The leaderships of both major parties are like a majority of professing Christians who pay lip service to the theology of Armageddon, but don’t quite believe it ever will or could happen.

  23. George Brooks
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 7:17 am | Permalink

    One has to agree with Mark B Theresa May will never listen as she is totally oblivious to the damage she and her band of ”advisors” (if there are any!) are doing to our country.

    Last night’s party political broadcast on BBC1 at 1855hrs was a perfect example. The first 2 to 3 minutes were good and factual putting forward a good case for a Tory vote then the whole short film was ruined as it switched to TM on the stump voicing her worn out platitudes. Has she and her surrounding band sycophants forgotten how they screwed the 2017 election and completely mishandled the EU negotiations.

    How someone can be so pig-headed is unbelievable.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:29 am | Permalink

      Indeed the last thing likely to make someone vote conservative is Theresa May especially addressing the public (as she always does) like a primary school teacher addressing some dim five year olds’.

      The broadcast also included the lie that their councils help local businesses. I assume they meant to say they tax, mug, inconvenience and tie them up in red tape, delay them in traffic jams and pointless planning restrictions. Also they mug their customers when they park or put a wheel into an empty bus lane for a second.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:40 am | Permalink

        Also mug them when making deliveries of heavy items to customers. Help – you must be joking!

    • Posted April 19, 2019 at 12:05 pm | Permalink

      ”Unbelievable” – yes. Unless it’s all going according to plan. Or at least, it WAS till Mr Farage popped up again!

      And perhaps she’s not ”oblivious to the damage” at all, and it’s all collateral so far as she’s and her puppet masters are concerned.

      • jerry
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 5:47 pm | Permalink

        @L Jones; Yes, Mr Farage ‘popping up again’ is doing Labour’s work for them, great campaign tactics by the eurosceptic right (???), divide and -let someone else- rule!

        ”Unbelievable”…

  24. javelin
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 7:27 am | Permalink

    The WA Treaty or the current Neverendum will simply “bake in” the demise of the Conservatives Party.

    The will to remain is very strong in May, Hammond and civil servants. Their fingers will need to be prised from power.

  25. Donna
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 7:33 am | Permalink

    I fully expect that May and Corbyn will agree a “Ribbentrop Deal” in order to avoid the EU Parliament elections.

    But it might not get through Parliament and anyway, that isn’t going to save the CONservative Party. We are going to hold the Party to account for its betrayal over Brexit. It hasn’t just been carried out by May.

  26. Roy Grainger
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 7:36 am | Permalink

    The SNP position is interesting. They are in the “stop the catastrophe and chaos of hard Brexit, the people were lied to” camp but of course in their independence referendum they presented absolutely no deal or option at all other than just leaving – they couldn’t even tell their voters what currency they would be using. So if they’d won they would have cancelled independence for the same reason they’d cancel Brexit ? Or signed up to a deal to pay UK a massive leaving fee for nothing in return ?

  27. formula57
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 7:45 am | Permalink

    For main party safety, avoid the local elections too.

  28. Al
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 7:50 am | Permalink

    I said something similar after the announcement of the second delay. I also mentioned that while denying people a vote in the short term works, in the long-term it is not likely to be forgotten. The one thing activists are reporting on the doorstep is that people are angry, and they blame the entire party for letting her go this far.

    However as May will have resigned and likely gone to Europe once her deal passes, it will not be her but her successors and party who suffer, and she has shown no sign of caring so far.

  29. Turboterrier.
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 7:50 am | Permalink

    If the European elections take place and I hope they do it will be the final confirmation that the political system as is in this country is well and truly demolished. Unless the existing parties completely reinvent themselves and learn from the debacle that has been taking place over not just the last three years but for decades, this country will end up with minority parties filling Westminster with endless coalitions try to cobble deals together .
    Parliament as is has been slowly but surly year on year has gone backwards not even attempting to stand still to take into account the change in the electorates demands and expectations. The vast majority of members at Westminster are career politicians each with their own secret little agendas to survive the five year selection process. With all that has happened over Brexit we still have senior and remainer MPs still not accepting the vote of the people despite standing for election on party manifesto clearly stating what was going to happen, was not of any interest or concern once elected. Too many promises, statements and behind the scenes wheeling and dealing all amounting to nothing. Peoples perception of parliament and the way it presents itself has never been lower.

    The only thing constant in life is change and traditional political parties have got to grasp the nettle and change big time albeit it might be a night of the long knives but change we must. From the policies we set to the people we select to implement them dramatic changes are required if parliament whats to be seen as the electorate would wish to see it.

    If the people say leave, leave. If the people say drain the swamp, drain it. The list is endless, but will things change? No, not all the time we have leaders both past and present who have got no reality into how much the country let alone the world has changed and the people they select as their tail gunners. If they all have the same education and similar qualifications they will always talk and be seen as one of the same in their principles and ideals. We are blessed that at the moment we have about 100 odd that are outside this systematic cloning but for parliament to survive the parties will have to increase the criteria for individual selection of candidates and pretty damn quick based upon not only their expectations but that of the people.

  30. Richard1
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 7:51 am | Permalink

    The Govt are clearly not going to leave on 22 May with no deal so I suggest a plan B. The EU incidentally are now saying no talks on trade at all unless the terms of the WA are implemented whether its signed or not! So an answer is now needed from the Spartans as to how to respond to that.

    What Corbyn wants is the max chaos and for the Tories to get the blame. If the Tories do badly enough he may have a chance in a General election together with the Scottish separatists. Incredibly May is giving him the oxygen of credibility with these sham ‘negotiations’. I suggest getting rid of her as a priority

  31. Dominic
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 7:58 am | Permalink

    The pivot vote at the next GE will, without question, be traditional Labour voters. In 2016 millions of those decent, law abiding, hard working, sincere, moral folk voted to LEAVE the EU and believed that the result would be adhered to. With a Leave victory in the bag they duly and, imho wrongly, reverted back to voting Marxist Labour. What a mistake for Leave and our dreams of breaking away from the backward, sclerotic EU

    Today, those decent people can now see they’ve been betrayed and treated with absolute and utter contempt bordering on hate and that hate is expressed towards Leave-Labour voters by their own party MPs both in private who sneer their hate at my parents and my friends. These Labour MPS then conspire with this offence of a PM to destroy direct democracy using a Parliamentary sleight of hand to undermine the very vote they themselves afforded us.

    At the next GE the Brexit party, UKIP and hopefully an ardent Eurosceptic Tory leader must travel north and play that Labour betrayal card for everything it is worth. For without Marxist (infkunced? ed)Labour support in the Commons May would find it impossible to ram through her ludicrously titled Withdrawal Agreement named with the sole aim of deceiving people.

    As a Tory party it is absolutely vital we have a brutal Eurosceptic to takes up the reins, One, who takes no prisoners regarding Labour and all their crimes. All topics of debate must be put on the table. Liberal left sensitivities must be ignored. If we do this and tell Labour’s traditional vote how their own party’s betrayed them over the decades then we can (defeat ed)…… of a party that sits in opposition

  32. David Porter
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 8:01 am | Permalink

    Your view to solve Brexit is to leave without signing the WA and then to offer a FTA, which is something I would like to see. But wouldn’t Parliament prevent that?

    • Ken Bull
      Posted April 20, 2019 at 5:06 pm | Permalink

      Already has prevented it. 20 MPs at most want to leave with no deal. Extremists. Either we leave with a deal, as I hope, or we do not leave. Two choices

  33. Steve
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 8:01 am | Permalink

    It’s slowly but surely coming to light that there is serious collusion going on to overturn the referendum and keep us in the EU.

    May, Corbyn, Bercow and every MP who obfuscates the process of leaving…….the whole filthy rotten lot of them in it together.

    We’ll sling the shysters out on their backsides via the ballot box, or other means if necessary.

    Liars, in it up their necks.

  34. Alastair Harris
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 8:11 am | Permalink

    I can’t see any real reason why we shouldn’t leave now. Arguably under UK law we have already left. It was interesting to read Bill Cash’s interpretation of the statutory instrument for example.

  35. Steve
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 8:14 am | Permalink

    JR

    “They are also leaving it very late to get the complex and unpopular legislation through Parliament..”

    Mr Redwood, you should know by now that is one of Theresa May’s tactics, made possible with the help of John Bercow.

  36. fredH
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 8:20 am | Permalink

    Good day, the EU parliament elections are only that, a stop gap measure, and are of no consequence since we will be out of the EU before 31st Oct. Our hosts advice again is to leave without signing the WA. Presumably then he wishes to meet the terms of this WA sometime after we leave, the 39Billion, the movement of people and the border- all will be there waiting for us after 31st Oct and before the EU bosses even sit down with us to talk about the future.

    The EU Parliament elections are therefore of no consequence and anyone going out campaigning and spending their own money? well they must have more money than sense- of course if you’re spending other peoples money- well that’s different.

    • NickC
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 3:50 pm | Permalink

      FredH, Well, JR will speak for himself, but I doubt very much that he, having left without signing the dWA, would “meet the terms of this WA sometime after we leave”. I certainly wouldn’t. What would be the point? We don’t need a “trade deal” (other than the WTO framework) to trade with the EU.

  37. J Bush
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 8:23 am | Permalink

    When actions defy logic, the expression ‘follow the money’ is used.

    Joe public is becoming increasingly aware of the ‘foreign money’ is being used to keep us in the EU, along with the vested interests of getting multi million £ deals provided the referendum result is ignored.

    Out of respect for the guidelines you have previously mentioned, I don’t mention names, but suspect you know of whom I refer to.

    May has to go and replaced with a politician who has not been in the cabinet and who truly believes in upholding the referendum result.

  38. Bryan Harris
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 8:34 am | Permalink

    Nice argument – addressed to a non-remainer PM it would have created a real effect, I’m sure.
    Addressing it to May though is a complete waste of time, simply because her devotion to the EU overrides every other consideration …
    She will be leaving the Commons as soon as she has completed her task of shackling us to the EU, so there is only one type of argument that might seep through her EU loyalty. Find some way to show her how much damage the UK will do by staying inside the EU – that might work, but appealing to her on party or country lines will be met by a blank stare.
    Why can’t all Tory MP’s see what most of the country can see all too clearly – that May is not fit to be PM and should be gotten rid of, one way or another.

    • NickC
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 3:53 pm | Permalink

      Bryan Harris, Because most Tory MPs are lemmings???

    • Fred H
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 5:15 pm | Permalink

      It would seem most Tory MPs want to stay in the EU, and the rest don’t have much fight in them. This is very clear to the electorate and supporters will not bother to vote for them any more, or worse vote against. To stand idly by and watch their leader become the worst in living memory and a laughing stock in Europe. She doesn’t need a white flag it is all so clear. Corbyn must be such a fool to not seize his chance.

  39. glen cullen
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 8:48 am | Permalink

    When the dust has settled and its time vote in either local/general or euro elections, the people will remember that the conservative party can’t trusted , and will vote for a non-establishment party. The Torys don’t seem concerned…they should be.

    Sir John please remind your fellow MPs

  40. BOF
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 9:30 am | Permalink

    There are thousands, no millions, like me. I had always been a Conservative voter but never a party member. I had also heard Liberals, Labour and Conservatives promise a referendum on EU membership but realised that they were empty promises and joined UKIP. There were enough of us to make the Ref happen. Subsequently I joined the CP.

    Now it is plain that despite all the promises, neither the Parliamentary Conservative party nor Labour want us really to leave the EU so I have resigned from the Conservative Party and joined TBP. The pressure will be enormous as I believe they will gain even more support before Eroparl elections and easily be the main party from the UK. The EU elite will not be happy.

    If Conservative and Labour do a deal, heaven help them in the UK Parliamentary elections as I believe that large swathes of their support will turn to TBP.

  41. BR
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:17 am | Permalink

    The elephant in the room is that May is so determined to get her treat of servitude through that she is prepared to sacrifice anything and everything to do so.

    The fact that she hid her true colours from her Brexit ministers and cabinet until the ridiculous unveiling at Chequers, then doggedly carried on through everything where all previous PMs would have resigned a number of times.

    She has put this issue above her party, which she is prepared to destroy. Her personal views above those of the people, whom she is prepared to ignore. Her personal career and legacy is also to be sacrificed on the altar of the EU project.

    Nothing will persuade this woman to change course and leave the EU without a deal. Writing blogs here as to how sensible it would be will change nothing, surely you must realise that by now?

    Although there are moves afoot to oust her, all of them are too slow – it will be too late if Corbyn decides to do a deal for a CU (let’s face it, he doesn’t really understand any of this, his anti-EU stance is largely visceral and any genuine issue he has is regarding State Aid rules that he wishes to be free from).

    I can only hope that you are right about Corbyn not wanting to do a deal. Offering to abstain on a VoNC is the most certain way to remove May. That would engineer a change of leader, but you need to know what will fill the ensuing ‘political vacuum’. Is the Tory party so pro-remain that it will elect a Hammond, Rudd – or even Gove?

    That is the only reason not to go that route (apart from the one of being seen to vote against your own party’s government for the first time ever, for which I believe that the electorate would forgive you in a heartbeat under the circumstances since that precedent is preferable to the others we are seeing and may yet see).

    Just get a Brexiteer on the ticket, let the membership do the rest and once in post as PM, they need no further votes in the HoC, simply let the clock expire to WTO. That is the only way to save your country and your party – from zeroes to heroes in 6.1 seconds.

    Parallel option – get behind the legal case trying to show that we left the EU on 29/3 because May use executive powers (that she does not have) to extend.

  42. Pominoz
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:21 am | Permalink

    Sir John,

    This won’t take long in moderation.

    Agree entirely and absolutely with your comments.

  43. ukretired123
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:33 am | Permalink

    TM is the reverse of MT and husband /advisor PM thinks he is the power behind the PM.
    Instead of “No No No” to Brussels, TM wants “Yes, yes, yes”.
    In France the media cynically brand MT as “I want my money back!” And that was because she demanded quite rightly a debate for the UK in the 1980s and got 66% of what she asked for. What a contrast to TM who is prepared to gift £39 Billion away to them from our own much needy UK services for nothing.
    Folks cannot understand this but it is the equivalent of sending a convoy of lorries to Brussels loaded with gold bars after 2 world wars and utter defeat flying white flags.

    • ukretired123
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 6:42 pm | Permalink

      £39Billion would buy nearly 900 metric tonnes of gold and would require a convoy of billion trucks of a mile long to carry it.
      That is well over the 400 tonnes of gold Gordon Brown sold at rock bottom prices and look credit for this debacle. Theresa May is trying to out-score GB by quantity and zero price to EU.

      • ukretired123
        Posted April 19, 2019 at 9:51 pm | Permalink

        Edit Bullion Trucks not billion … Computer software glitch!

  44. margaret howard
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:35 am | Permalink

    JR

    “that does not allow us to take back control of our laws, our money and our borders any time soon”

    We never lost control of our laws, have retained the pound and haven’t signed up for Schengen. You are an MP and although you are entitled to your views etc ed.

    Reply The EU makes and controls our laws in many areas. We have to send very large sums to the EU each year which is what I was referring to with the money item

    • NickC
      Posted April 20, 2019 at 6:06 pm | Permalink

      Margaret Howard, Declaration 17 of the Lisbon treaty states that EU laws have primacy over our own. Of course we lost control of our laws! Sheeesh!

  45. Lifelogic
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:37 am | Permalink

    I see that the priory has been fined £300,000 for not preventing one suicide. Can we assume that the NHS Gosport hospital will be fined £135,000,000 for the 450 deaths. Surely if anything they were rather more culpable. Perhaps a few £billion more for the other endless NHS scandals, negligence and incompetences. Or are the authorities only interested in failings in the private sector? They rarely even seem to do so much as to sack anyone.

    • The Prangwizard
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 3:32 pm | Permalink

      Indeed so. I lived near there at the time 12 YEARS ago. It stinks that it has been delayed and delayed by the rotten establishment. It’s a pity that the Extinction Rebellion couldn’t turn there attention to the scandal there.

  46. Gareth Warren
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 10:37 am | Permalink

    What isn’t mentioned by the media is that this Euro vote really is a protest vote, I suspect a bulk of Brexit members are unioted by a desire just to leave the country. Support for such a party would evaporate if we got a WTO brexit.

    However it seems politically foolish to give them a free hit by holding the EU elections, given momentum the movement may make a breakthrough in the GE.

    I never cease to be amazed by p;politicians desire to waste money on boondoogles or give away control over the nation to supra-national bodies. But until now they have always looked after their political survival. Maybe the time outsider the London bubble will wake them up to the threat.

  47. Tony Sharp
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 11:44 am | Permalink

    Sir John,
    This is all besides the point – removing Mrs May is all that you and your Eurosceptic colleagues should be concentrating on – anything else will destroy your Party.

  48. John Probert
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 11:55 am | Permalink

    GoodBye May Roll On Boris

  49. Posted April 19, 2019 at 12:26 pm | Permalink

    Well, I am only surprised that there is not more people wanting out Now !
    Those decent MPs should say right enough enough.

    We are Leaving Now on WTO

    No Deal it is we will both sides continue to trade

    I do not know about all those people in the Poles Still voting for these simply ghastly MPs
    Who are trying to not only keep us in that Totalitarian Block, but something very much Worse.

    I would like to see a General Election ASAP.
    My total contempt for the two main parties and just what they have done to this Nation and it’s people is totally beyond Presidenc in our long history.

    Bring on a complete cleaning of Westmonster, not to leave out the Lords.

    A promise made is a promise kept,, the hell with the lot of the .
    This whole diabolical farce has gone on for decades.

    Even the decent MPs have done damn all to bring the ring leaders to book.

    Changing the subject somewhat, just When are you going to bring back Stop and Search ?

    How many more will die meaninglessly before someone gets on his hind legs .
    Enough is enough.
    Enough of the two deplorable Parties, I never want to see there like again.
    Just look how we let down our Comonwealth in 1973

  50. Yorkie
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 12:38 pm | Permalink

    Along parts the Wharfe in Burnsall, farmers have placed signs over years warning anyone pitching a tent that it would be dismantled and taken away.
    If London Metropolitan Police. Mrs May, PM for now, and the Home Secretary, for now, Mr Javid, are turning this way and that and getting in a fluster as what to do about the happy campers on major highways in London then they can ask North Yorkshire Police on Tel 999 or 101 ( but the latter may take time) and ask for advice and maybe Yorkshire Farmers stout good and true, English to a man ( the women could be used if a riot squad is necessary as they have track-record!), can be sent to bottom their problem.

    It would be nice if the farmers could be given expenses, meals allowance ( forget the look-a-like Yorkshire puddings and look-a-like beer, no doubt they will take with them the real thing).
    It could be done within the day! Unless the reason for delay has more to it than meets the London eye.
    We can see in Yorkshire.Nothing gets past us,
    when reading stuff.

    • M Davis
      Posted April 19, 2019 at 8:55 pm | Permalink

      Great stuff, Yorkie!

  51. Pete Else
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 1:02 pm | Permalink

    Yes betray your country and the electorate then run away from the consequences. Sounds like business as usual for a political party.

  52. Steve Pitts
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 1:39 pm | Permalink

    But to these people including Mrs May it is more important to get her deal through or stay in the EU than to save their party. They believe their party can recover in the future but for now we must sign this terrible deal or stop and delay Brexit anyway they can. When it comes down to it, they care more for the EU than the people or their party.

  53. majorfrustration
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 3:01 pm | Permalink

    Is the no longer any backbone in the Tory Party – I expect when May is disposed of all Tory MPs will confirm that they and they alone always wanted her gone and never voted for her as leader in the first place. Sorry lads you have had your chance get those CVs out.

  54. hans christian ivers
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 3:17 pm | Permalink

    Sir JR,

    Interesting analyses and good questions raised.

    Another questions to ask is, what is the cost of leaving and then negotiating a free trade agreement for the country at this late stage and how will that work for employment and for our corporate sector?

  55. Roy Grainger
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 5:04 pm | Permalink

    Off topic a bit, but Farage is a smart operator, his party up and running with logo/branding/website in place, drip feed of stories to keep it in the news agenda, public rallies. Compare and contrast with the lamentable TIG’s with no leader, a policy vacuum, a legal battle over their Change UK name etc. All reflected in their relative polling. Farage understands insurgent politics but the TIGs are soft from years of letting their party machines do all the work. Pity, I was hoping the TIGs would shift significant Labour Remain votes away from Corbyn this muddying the general election waters.

    I assume Farage’s next move is to gain a few MEP or MP defectors from the Tories or possibly Labour. Shouldn’t be too difficult.

  56. Ian Pennell
    Posted April 19, 2019 at 5:55 pm | Permalink

    Dear Sir John Redwood

    Having failed to move decisively against Theresa May, even bringing down the Government by voting with Labour in a “Vote of No Confidence”- you might find it is now already too late to save either the Conservative Party or Brexit. Yes, Conservative MPs bringing down the Government by voting with Labour in a “Vote of No Confidence” carried risks- but by getting rid of Theresa May and putting a Brexit Leader in charge Brexit- and the Conservative Party- would probably have been saved from certain defeat.

    The latest polls suggest that Conservative MPs really are trapped: You have three choices and now all of them look like allowing/precipitating the inevitable one way or the other. The Inevitable here is BRINO/ No Brexit and a hard-left Labour Government and each of these choices is liable to bring it about:

    1) Allow Theresa May to remain in office to stitch up a Customs Union BRINO. Voters will severely punish the Conservatives at the next Election and (assuming Jeremy Corbyn gets his act together) you are looking at a landslide Labour victory.

    2) Replace Theresa May with a Brexit Leader: The new Leader, looks at the polls and decides to try and achieve Brexit properly without an Election. Labour and the Remainer Parliament seize the levers of power to make any meaningful Brexit illegal. Brexit is cancelled and Voters punish the Conservatives at the next Election- again leading to a Labour Gov’t (but with a lesser Labour Majority than ( 1).

    3) Topple Theresa May by voting with Labour in a Vote of No Confidence. In the two week interim elect a strong Brexit Leader through a show of hands of Conservative MPs. With the Conservatives well behind in the polls and the new Leader unable to deliver a true Brexit it will be much harder to get Voters’ trust back: The resulting Election is now unlikely to deliver a Conservative Majority (even with a charismatic Leader selling popular policies). It is possible that you will end up with a minority Labour Government.

    Though the trap is now real, there is another strategy to deploy: It involves a combination of (2) and (3)- moving against Theresa May (fast), get the new Brexit Leader to try to deliver a true Brexit. If Parliament frustrate the new Conservative Government in this endeavour then go for the Election to be fought on a strongly pro- growth WTO Brexit platform. This will involve Conservatives not standing in some Northern City Seats (and encouraging voters there to support the Brexit Party)- so as to maximise the election of Brexity MPs. The Conservative Party has limited resources (money and boots on the ground)- so it must target these at areas where it has a chance of winning/ retaining Seats. Bear in mind that Labour has 500,000 Momentum activists who will also be targeting the Marginals!!

    The whole Brexit/ Political Situation is moving fast- against you, Sir! You and your colleagues must be BOLD, pro-active and Willing to MOVE FAST to save Brexit and indeed to save Britain from Jeremy Corbyn!

    I wish you all the best.

    Ian Pennell

    • Treacle
      Posted April 20, 2019 at 1:06 am | Permalink

      On the right lines, but the Conservative Party would also need to deselect all its Remain MPs.

  57. Posted April 19, 2019 at 11:01 pm | Permalink

    Sir John, as a Conservative voter for 50 odd years, your current leader has been a disgrace her activities have rendered it impossible for me to continue to vote Conservative. As one of your constituents I am afraid that I will no longer vote for the Conservative party or indeed Labour or Libdem.
    I will support the Brexit Party who appear to be the only entity to provide what we voted for in the referendum almost 3 years ago.
    It is a shame for the decent Conservative MP’s who will suffer as collateral damage, in short I think your leader has effectively destroyed your party as a credible force.
    I hope that you and your family have an enjoyable Easter break

    • Fred H
      Posted April 20, 2019 at 9:17 am | Permalink

      Gordon.. What other course of action might produce any sort of positive outcome? It will be felt across the country in the May election with some sad consequences, however I am certain Sir John will survive should a GE be called.

  58. Dominic Johnson
    Posted April 20, 2019 at 8:33 am | Permalink

    National politicians across the EU have a long and sordid history of destroying themselves and their parties to protect the EU.

  59. Simon Hodges
    Posted April 20, 2019 at 11:49 am | Permalink

    I would suggest leaving on WTO rules at the end of the current extension which should give our reluctant governments and the EU time to prepare adequately. That will not happen however because the PM is utterly delusional and out of touch.

  60. Simon
    Posted April 20, 2019 at 6:55 pm | Permalink

    I wonder where you think you get the authority or credibility to offer advice to the Government ?

    • Adam
      Posted April 25, 2019 at 5:46 pm | Permalink

      There are plenty of both, Simon. You could begin by clicking on ‘About’ near the top of the Diary & researching further from there to satisfy your curiosity or doubt. Beyond that there is solid support from many appreciative readers & followers here & internationally.

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    The latest polls should warn the two main parties in the Commons to avoid a European election.

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  • About John Redwood


    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, He graduated from Magdalen College Oxford, has a DPhil and is a fellow of All Souls College. A businessman by background, he has been a director of NM Rothschild merchant bank and chairman of a quoted industrial PLC.

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