The Euro elections should deliver a major message to Westminster

I am expecting a surge of support for the Brexit party in the results of the Euro elections. Now the polls have closed sfter 10 pm our time all across the EU we can look forward to some results.

I expect the Brexit vote and the residual UKIP vote both in favour of a so called No deal exit to be ahead of the combined Lib Dem, Green and Change UK Remain vote, parties disliking Brexit and pledged to try to reverse it in a second referendum. I expect the Conservative and Labour votes to be greatly squeezed. Whilst both these parties said they wanted to honour the referendum result Labour was still flirting with Remain, saying it backed both sides, whilst Mrs May dominated the underwhelming and brief Conservative campaign with her Withdrawal Agreement.

Assuming this is what happens we can conclude

1 The UK meant its decision in the referendum and wants us to leave. We need to do so by October 31 at the latest.It would be good if a new PM agreed an earlier departure with the EU.
2. Mrs Mays Withdrawal Agreement has tiny support and needs to be binned immediately. The fact that she made the WA central to her leaflet and speech put off millions of former Conservative voters. It lets us say the Conservative vote in this election is the limit of support for the Withdrawal Treaty. Anyone who wanted a negotiated way to a so called comprehensive partnership with the EU on these terms would have voted Conservative.
3 Both main parties have a big task to get back into favour with a majority of the voters. Only a clean and early Brexit will buy them that right.
4. The current Westminster Parliament by delaying and seeking to dilute or reverse Brexit has gravely misjudged the public mood. It can only start to redeem itself by getting on with the earliest possible WTO Brexit. The UK should offer free trade talks and no new tariffs and barriers which the EU might well want, but we should just leave anyway. There are already important agreements reached to ease our early departure without signing the draft Treaty.

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51 Comments

  1. Anthony
    Posted May 26, 2019 at 9:12 pm | Permalink

    If no deal looked likely and a vote of confidence in the government was called, would you support proroguing parliament to after 31 Oct? Or do you think that the government would win?

    • Peter
      Posted May 26, 2019 at 9:48 pm | Permalink

      First task is to get a genuine Leave Prime Minister. All of the candidates had signed up to May’s Surrender Agreement Mark 3. So that is a problem.

      Continuity Remain will keep trying to undermine a proper Brexit, so getting to October will be a second problem.

      If the PM is a true Brexiteer, at an opportune moment, he can threaten Remain with calling a General Election. Many of them would lose their seats.

      May just used Parliament as an excuse not leave on WTO terms. A better PM would leave with or without a deal.

      • Steve
        Posted May 26, 2019 at 10:27 pm | Permalink

        Peter

        “Continuity Remain will keep trying to undermine a proper Brexit, so getting to October will be a second problem.”

        Well from TPB results tonight I’d say remain are losing it rather fast.

      • Tad Davison
        Posted May 27, 2019 at 2:30 am | Permalink

        All the way through the election results broadcasts, I kept thinking about Theresa May – didn’t she do fantastically well! The Tory’s worst national result ever. That came on top of a poor 2017 General Election result after which May should have got the sack, and a disastrous recent local election result. The writing was on the wall then, but the Tories couldn’t read.

        May had the chance to take the UK out of the EU on the 29th March but flunked it in pursuance of her barely concealed pro-EU agenda, and the Conservative party consequently paid a heavy price. The BBC’s Laura Kuensberg said if these latest rusults were projected forward onto a General Election, the Tories wouldn’t even win a single seat! All May had to do was deliver a clean Brexit in accordance with the 2016 referendum, and all of this could have been avoided.

        Some Tory individuals at Westminster thought May would make a good Prime Minister, so perhaps we must now consider their judgement with a great deal of suspicion. Might they deliver to us yet another pathetic ‘dud’ who is massively out of their depth and not in tune with the people?

        According to one national newspaper, there is a clear and present danger another useless dud might be manoeuvred in by subterfuge by remainers lending their votes to candidates further down the list to edge out the first and second favourites in the preliminary rounds, as in the deplorable and underhanded remainer ‘anyone but Boris’ campaign.

        Why not then change the rules to give the party membership the chance to vote for a wider range of solidly Brexit candidates (remainers need not apply, they’re the ones who brought this disaster)?

        If action is not taken soon to stop these remainiacs, there won’t be a Tory party to vote for. If they won’t change, they will go the way of the dinosaur, so more power to the Brexit Party’s elbow.

        • John Hatfield
          Posted May 27, 2019 at 11:11 am | Permalink

          Tad, you speak of May as if she had some authority. I believe she had none at all. She was merely Hammond’s mouthpiece.

          • Richard Evans
            Posted May 27, 2019 at 10:21 pm | Permalink

            MAY was the mouthpiece of the UK Establishment and was shoe horned into the position of PM to act as their puppet and execute their orders.
            The new PM will not be a BREXIT person as the Conservative cabal/ Establishment will not allow it. Beware of Sajiv David.!!!
            Also, some weeks ago I posted here the real reason MAY would resign. It was not p ub lished. So much for Free Speech.
            Wake up people and do your own research.

        • Fred H
          Posted May 27, 2019 at 3:39 pm | Permalink

          Tad….as usual Laura talks up the point she wants to make. Its nonsense to argue all Tories would lose their seats….our good host can rely on his views and actions to carry the day and be re-elected handsomely. Some others might survive, but the more public outspoken ones sticking with Remain should plan another career. The pension is not enough for their present standard of living.

        • margaret
          Posted May 27, 2019 at 5:02 pm | Permalink

          Do you believe that the voter has the intellectual or visionary acumen to enable them to vote these people into positions in the first place. I think they are names on pieces of paper and assumptions that a few passed exams in institutions which have been self serving for many years gives them more credibility than any other. What is our choice?

      • Lifelogic
        Posted May 27, 2019 at 5:19 am | Permalink

        Is Steve Baker not standings? Not that he is likely to win given the types of ‘Conservative’ MPs we have.

        Hammond is already undermining the next Conservative leader in the negotiations (on Marr). He has with May taken the party to fifth place in the EU elections well done Hammond. What a wrongheaded, appalling Chancellor he is. We need compulsory lessons in negotiation, logic and game theory (and indeed in why places like Singapore and Hong Kong do so well with far lower taxes) for such foolish dopes.

        As Frederick Forsyth sensibly puts in in a letter to the Telegraph today: – Those squeaking that we must “take No Deal off the table” show only that they are stupid……….. Can the Tories please just get on with it? Brits are patient folk, but there are limits, which are now extremely close.

        • Simeon
          Posted May 27, 2019 at 8:01 am | Permalink

          He said he was to consider standing having been encouraged to do so. He seems the best option of those MPs that have never voted for the WA. But he would have no chance of being in the final two. The final two will be candidates that supported the WA, at least third time round. One or other would have to be mightily persuasive in explaining why they did so. Raab had a stab at exactly this with Marr yesterday. His defence of his action (note, no repentance) was that voting for the WA would have negated a delay, and torpedoed the Euro elections. You can draw your own conclusions from that…

    • Stephen Priest
      Posted May 27, 2019 at 7:40 am | Permalink

      Eurosceptic parties won in 3 of the EU’s 4 main countries

      Italy – Salvini – La Lega
      France – Le Pen
      UK – Brexit Party

  2. formula57
    Posted May 26, 2019 at 9:22 pm | Permalink

    I see the Greeks are to have an early election following poor Euro results for the ruling Syriza party. Makes one think!

    • Mark B
      Posted May 27, 2019 at 5:22 am | Permalink

      Syriza are going to disappear. Any party that offers a referendum on something and then not only renages but, actually offers something far worse, is heading for the electoral dustbin.

      Ahem ! Those in the two main parties please take note. 😉

  3. glen cullen
    Posted May 26, 2019 at 9:47 pm | Permalink

    Couldn’t agree with you more

    Just need to convince the rest of your party

  4. Dominic
    Posted May 26, 2019 at 9:49 pm | Permalink

    Today’s vote isn’t simply about our membership of the EU. It is a complete rejection of the two party duopoly that exists in the Commons and a system that’s perpetrated and concealed multiple transgressions, crimes and cover-ups

    The desire of the political, business and administrative is to maintain the Tory-Labour status quo with the sole intent of keeping the UK in the EU. This desire or objective is responsible for the concealment of some of the most abhorrent criminality that nation’s ever witnessed

    It isn’t good enough for Tory leadership hopefuls to believe they continue where Blair and May left off. We need a complete and total reversal of the damage inflicted on this nation by Blair since 1997. A dismantling of his client state including the purging of the collective culture that’s overtaken the BBC

    Liberal left domination must end. PC politics must be neutralised. Marxist Labour banished, demonised and buried into history

    The UK and its people want a return of morality, decency and truth and not crimes swept under the carpet for political and electoral convenience

    Both parties are directly responsible for the damage inflicted since 1990 and even before

    • Steve
      Posted May 26, 2019 at 10:23 pm | Permalink

      Dominic

      Indeed so, Sir.

      We need to turn the clock back, and as you say Blair-ism, political correctness, and marxism must be purged and banned.

    • Vernon Wright
      Posted May 26, 2019 at 10:35 pm | Permalink

      It’s far greater than that, Dominic.

      The problem is and has since the War been the domination by socialist groupthink of the entire body politic, education and, in the end, the feeble thought process of the entire global electorate.

      Universal equal suffrage is, in one extremely important respect, similar to death: it’s irreversible. If we could go back two centuries and restore the link between voting power and fiscal responsibility, we might have a Parliament able to implement a comprehensible Brexit. Mind you: in those circumstances — i.e. without universal equal suffrage — we should likely never have found ourselves in this mess in the first place!

      ΠΞ

      • Fred H
        Posted May 27, 2019 at 3:50 pm | Permalink

        Vernon….you want to return to the days of 100k to 200k eligible to vote out of approx 8m? Coal mine and mill owners ?

    • Dennis Zoff
      Posted May 27, 2019 at 2:04 am | Permalink

      Excellent comment, Dominic.

    • javelin
      Posted May 27, 2019 at 5:02 am | Permalink

      Absolutely. The political deep state needs to be fully dismantled over the next few years. Political bias in the civil state needs to be criminalised if democracy is to work.

  5. Fedupsoutherner
    Posted May 26, 2019 at 10:16 pm | Permalink

    Ed Davey and Emily Thornberry are still arguing that the results mean a second referendum is needed. Deluded or what? The biggest majority vote again is for Brexit. I think a lesson in math is needed and percentages explained to them. It has been a very satisfying result. Well done Mr Farage and thank God for Mr Farage .

  6. Steve
    Posted May 26, 2019 at 10:18 pm | Permalink

    Just been watching the results, WOW !

    Cons = toast.

    Lab = beaten by the wooly bobble hat anorak brigade.

    TBP way ahead proof that the majority demand WTO exit.

    On BBC the conservative guest reckoned it was down to protest. Obviously they still don’t get it.

  7. ukretired123
    Posted May 26, 2019 at 10:26 pm | Permalink

    It certainly needs Sir John to state his obvious conclusions again in Parliament and to the Conservative Party as you have been saying consistently over many months, but not heeded by others acting like sheep or heads in sand actors. Now with heads in fire action means they have to get into Exit Mode Pronto!

  8. APL
    Posted May 26, 2019 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

    JR: “The fact that she made the WA central to her leaflet and speech put off millions of former Conservative voters. ”

    “.. and the referendum that follows will be a once in a generation choice. An in or out referendum. When the British people speak, their voice will be respected – not ignored. If we vote to leave, then we will leave. There will not be another renegotiation and another referendum.” — David Cameron.

    ” Brexit means Brexit” — Theresa May leading her party to two historic election defeats.

    • Tad Davison
      Posted May 27, 2019 at 2:56 pm | Permalink

      There’s a perculial illness that afflicts most politicians. It’s called ‘Lying b*st*rd syndrome’.

  9. The Prangwizard
    Posted May 26, 2019 at 11:02 pm | Permalink

    Your leadership will no doubt have their fingers in their ears and their eyes closed. Nothing will change because she and they are completely unable to understand what is happening.

    The clearout must continue.

    • Old person
      Posted May 27, 2019 at 3:52 pm | Permalink

      But, they will still smell the fear, while possibly feeling and tasting the milkshakes.

      The ever adaptable English language has introduced a verb ‘milkshaked’ into our vocabulary.
      How soon before it morphs from ‘an act of violence’ into the abstract meaning of ‘publicly showing contempt to someone’.

      Of course, the Buddhist concept of a sixth sense (the mind) is completely beyond them.

  10. Richard1
    Posted May 26, 2019 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

    2 pieces of excellent news: 1) Dan Hannan MEP, one of the most prominent and articulate advocates of free market liberalism has kept his seat and 2) the Labour Party – the main opposition to the govt – has done appallingly badly.

    Lots to build on from here.

  11. Posted May 27, 2019 at 12:02 am | Permalink

    ‪Enunciate clearly 10 reasons why a no deal Brexit is good for the UK. Otherwise you don’t really believe in Brexit. We know. ‬

  12. Andy
    Posted May 27, 2019 at 12:27 am | Permalink

    So the Brexit Party and UKIP combined got fewer votes than the Lib Dems, Greens and Change UK combined.

    Add in the remain voting Plaid and the SNP and you have almost 1 million more voters for the 5 explicit remain parties than for the 2 explicitly leave parties.

    The will of the people is clear. Brexit is not it.

    • Julie Dyson
      Posted May 27, 2019 at 8:33 am | Permalink

      You’ve spouted some utter codswallop recently Andy but this really takes the biscuit!

      Let me break it down for you in really, really simply terms:

      Clean WTO Brexit, No Ifs, No Buts (TBP, UKIP): 35%
      Some Other Form Of Brexit Fudge (Con, Lab): 25%
      Remain an EU Cash Cow (LD, GR, CHUK): 35%
      Break Up The UK Whatever The Cost (SNP, PC): 5%

      One would have to be seriously delusional to read that result any other way.

    • Narrow Shoulders
      Posted May 27, 2019 at 8:54 am | Permalink

      There were several issues upon which Greens, Lib Dems SNP and Plaid campaigned which would have drawn votes from different quarters.

      The Brexit Party stood on one issue and nearly beat their combined number of votes on a low turnout. I think you should read the results a different way Andy

      • margaret howard
        Posted May 27, 2019 at 10:43 pm | Permalink

        Narrow Shoulders

        The Brexit party was Farage. When he drops it because he is nothing but an ambitious opportunist, it will collapse just like UKIP did.

    • Wessexboy
      Posted May 27, 2019 at 9:02 am | Permalink

      Oh dear Andy! Still looking for straws to clutch? Didn’t the Labour and Conservative manifestos just a short time ago say they were going to leave the EU? Aren’t you ignoring the few votes they got?

    • Tad Davison
      Posted May 27, 2019 at 3:07 pm | Permalink

      Obviously a fan of the scrupulously honest Alastair Campbell, that doyen of all that is true and virtuous. Someone who would never let a terminological inexactitudes pass his lips, or spin a set of results to make it sound as though they are saying something else entirely. Well done Andy, you’ll be telling us next that Gordon Brown was the most perfect politician ever!

  13. miami.mode
    Posted May 27, 2019 at 12:32 am | Permalink

    Au contraire on the difference between Brexit/UKIP and Lib Dem/Green/Change UK. Prof John Curtice on BBC suggested it is a draw which simply reinforces that the 52/48 split would probably stay similar.

    What may change things is that the Brexit party could possibly be the largest national party in the EU and thus they may well be keen to be rid of us and may change their stance.

  14. Caterpillar
    Posted May 27, 2019 at 1:01 am | Permalink

    1) Do.we know how many EU citizens who could not vote in the referendum voted in these EU elections?
    2) The Lib Dems performance in London will be consistent with the London eccentricity of UK politics. It is time to let this go – any future conservative leader will need to realise it’s time to move on from the London/SE/GoldenTriangle bias. Policies to stop Heathrow 3, speed up the non-London part of HS2, move many/all senior civil servants out of London, move parliament (or at least an English parliament) out of London must be developed. Keeping London as the centre for finance, transport, politics and culture is bad for the UK, it will continue to exacerbate a divide between the many and the elite few. In voting for the Lib Dems, London has shown it doesn’t care for democracy, to be a one nation party the conservatives have to turn to that nation and start to move some of the centres.

  15. ian
    Posted May 27, 2019 at 1:17 am | Permalink

    GE coming soon.

  16. The Prangwizard
    Posted May 27, 2019 at 3:35 am | Permalink

    Just read that Boris thinks the Tories are on ‘final warning’. Just as I said, the party does not understand – this was not your final warning, You are way past that. You are being eliminated, you haven’t listened. For months you haven’t listened. You are on your way out. You’ve been living in your bubble with a traitor as leader and acted against the people.

    My slogan is ‘no prisoners’, ‘no prisoners’.

    • Peter
      Posted May 27, 2019 at 11:01 am | Permalink

      Yes, I also think the Conservatives are finished. The public can see that May was allowed to continue for so long because it suited most of her MPs. The public know these people pay scant attention to the wishes of those who voted them into power.

      Labour also have problems. A split party that does not know whether to declare itself a fully fledged Remain party.

      So a General Election will be very interesting. All previous assumptions can be thrown out the window.

    • Tad Davison
      Posted May 27, 2019 at 3:19 pm | Permalink

      Well said, totally agree. We ought to make some space in the Tower for all the traitors who have brought us to this. We can’t have any more remainers, and people like May who would lock us in to the nasty insipid EU for ever.

      We now have the chance to regain our freedom!

  17. Oggy
    Posted May 27, 2019 at 3:44 am | Permalink

    So that’s drubbing number 2 completed in just 2 weeks. BUT MP’s are still not listening.

    Delusional Thornberry thinks that labour were sunk because they haven’t backed remain and a second referendum.
    Delusional Lib dums think because they came second the country has voted to stop Brexit.

    Hammond et al saying they would scupper their own PM if he/she tried to leave with no deal.
    Maybe when the first Brexit MP is elected in Peterborough in a few weeks time they may wake up and smell the coffee.

    Meanwhile Mrs May is still in number 10 and has 2 more EU summits to attend and who knows what damage or spiteful mischief she could get up to.

    • Oggy
      Posted May 27, 2019 at 3:47 am | Permalink

      That’s of course a Brexit party MP I meant to say.

  18. javelin
    Posted May 27, 2019 at 4:58 am | Permalink

    As predicted Conservatives below Greens on 9%. It would have been a near white wash for the Brexit Party had this been a General Election.

    The one glimmer of hope is the Remain vote will now be split between the LibDems, Labour and Greens.

    My prediction is that unless the Conservative Party are absolutely ruthless and use every political rule in the book to push through Brexit asap and become the Party of democracy then they will lose the next election to a Labour+LibDem alliance.

  19. Nigl
    Posted May 27, 2019 at 5:14 am | Permalink

    And the arrogant Hammond is even prepared to bring down the government and let Corbyn in by supporting a no confidence motion rather than giving people what they voted for.

    What an absolute ……………!

    • Fred H
      Posted May 27, 2019 at 3:55 pm | Permalink

      Nigl….answers on a postcard. Ah, no…an offence to send that sort of thing in the Royal Mail.

  20. Mark B
    Posted May 27, 2019 at 5:19 am | Permalink

    Good morning.

    Early indications point to a collapse of the two main parties and the resurgence of the LibDems and the Greens. It is difficult to know why they LibDems and the Greens have been so successful when the CUK’s, a 100% anti-BREXIT party have done so badly. Maybe it is because of party management ?

    The BP was always expected to do well. I hope that this momentum for change in the UK will carry on to Peterborough and the BP do well, or better, there. That will put the cat amongst the Westminster pigeons.

    The problems for the EU are very clear. Its ‘Project’ is failing. It is failing because without the democratic control / feedback which the people provide, the elite carry on in the wrong direction and become more remote and irrelevant to the world around them. The Demos is the, Canary in the coal mine and not just simple voting fodder.

    I do not expect anything substantial to change with regards to the direction of the EU, but it is clear the project is failing and the sooner we are out the better.

  21. agricola
    Posted May 27, 2019 at 5:37 am | Permalink

    Well everyone prefers a deal departure from the EU, but it must be on our own terms that can inject a sense of reallity into the process. Our deal should be, an offer to leave on WTO terms with a proposed FTA combined with the mutual acceptance of Art 24 of GATT to ensure continuity of current trade arrangements until such time as an FTA is agreed. The alternative is leave on WTO terms alone. The latter not attractive to any industrial CEOs in trade with the UK.., so expect pressure on the EU.

    It gives us freedom to trade with the World as we see fit, taking part in alternative trading blocs minus political baggage, or creating new ones of our own, such as the Commonwealth for instance. I have always been an advocate of trade being better than aid. Trade maintains the dignity of individuals and countries.

    We need a cabinet and PM that believes the same wjth the political nous and determination to carry it through, preferably before the 31st October. It is a treaty change so this enables the government to do it outside the incoherent squabblings within Parliament.

  22. Jazz
    Posted May 27, 2019 at 9:43 am | Permalink

    Brexit and UKIP = 36.8%

    LibDems, Greens and Change UK = 37%

    Much as I’d hoped for a very clear win for leaving.

    Extraordinary performance by LibDems and London.

    Wonder what the vote split would be without London.

    • agricola
      Posted May 27, 2019 at 5:57 pm | Permalink

      When lauding the Lib/dem performance bare in mind that the conservative party has drifted to the left. What options does a remain conservative supporter have when leaving his cross. Equally if a remain conservative wishes to make a defiant gesture in the face of the leadership that could only offer a toxic leave , where do you go to do it. Were I a Lib/Dem leader I might be outwardly jubilant, but I would read into it with great caution.

  23. AlmostDead
    Posted May 27, 2019 at 12:32 pm | Permalink

    I agree with moving to WTO trade terms with the rest of the world. But not in favour of free trade deals, which are predicated on trading away “access” to our market by reducing our tariffs and increasing quotas. Instead, drop all tariffs and non-tariff barriers to our market and allow consumers and companies to pay “world prices”. Then start privatising government services that can be run better by business, like the NHS. Open these markets to world competition. This is the great benefit of Brexit.

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    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, He graduated from Magdalen College Oxford, has a DPhil and is a fellow of All Souls College. A businessman by background, he has been a director of NM Rothschild merchant bank and chairman of a quoted industrial PLC.

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