The BBC were in overdrive yesterday peddling the same old arguments that if we just leave the EU they will not be able or willing to sell us all their exports. No critical questions to the usual suspects stating all this about how we manage to import so much from non EU sources today, or why would Dover and Calais wish to mess up their ports and their businesses by delay?
We go over and over the same absurd Remain arguments that we faced in the referendum campaign. I decided I had to divert today from my plan to carry on with the positives, by reminding myself just how wrong the Treasury and Remain were in the referendum with all their bogus forecasts. I spent much of my campaign refuting their forecasts of falling GHDP , falling house prices, falling share prices and rising unemployment. My replies on their argument that sterling would fall was “Sterling once we are out of the EU will continue to rise and fall as it has done all the time we have been in the EU. It has been very volatile”. That is exactly what has happened with for example a fall off against the dollar immediately after the vote, a rise back to the levels at the time of the vote, followed more recently by another decline. The strength of the dollar, UK money policy and other issues still affect this rate as before.
The main short term forecasts the Treasury made were specifically for the first couple of years or so after the vote. They said in their detailed published document on the short term outlook for after a Leave vote (not after exit)
1. There would be a recession, with unemployment rising by 500,000, or by as much as 800,000 in the worst case. The Unemployment rate would rise from the then rate of 4.9% to 6.5% or even to 7.3%.
Outturn Employment grew substantially, with the unemployment rate falling from 4.9% to 3.8%, a fall of 22%. There was no recession.
2. House prices would fall by 10%, with a worst case possible fall of 18%
Outturn House prices continued to rise for the UK as a whole, at a modest rate, despite the hikes in Stamp duty, restriction on mortgages and tax rises for Buy to let.
3. The “return investors would demand for holding longer term UK government debt or the term premium would rise by between 40bp and 100bp” driving up borrowing rates generally.
Outturn The 10 year cost of government borrowing has fallen from 1.09% to 0.52%, a halving of the overall rate of interest on such debt.
4. Shares would fall. Whilst no forecasts of the extent were in the document, Remain claimed the UK share market would fall after the vote, and then modified this to saying domestically oriented shares would fall.
Outturn The All Share Index is up 17% since the referendum. The FTSE250, which excludes the 100 largest companies which predominantly earn profits abroad, is up by slightly more than 17%.
So we now know all but the Treasury’s sterling forecast was wrong by large margins. Why doesn’t the mainstream media revisit this and ask those responsible why they got it so wrong? Why should we believe their tales of gloom going forwards, when they made such a hash of these crucial referendum influencing forecasts?
August 8, 2019
As ever, diversionary tactics from John Redwood. No one is saying we will restrict imports, so stop inventing scare stories. What is being said – correctly – is that our exports will suffer. Right now, as members of the EU’s single market (created by Mrs Thatcher) we have frictionless unrestricted trade with the EU. If we leave with no deal, we lose those privileges, we are a third country and our exports will face the tariffs and border checks that any country the EU trades with without a deal has to face. A MASSIVE blow to free trade. But hey, you Brexiters tell me you know what you voted for. You voted to choke off free trade with our biggest export market
Reply Most of the scare stories relate to alleged difficulties in importing
August 8, 2019
Macron is in no position to see central Paris flooded with farmers and their tractors complaining that their produce is rotting on the roads to the Channel ports. It is not in the EUs interests to start playing silly buggers with tariffs and inspections. Why would they want to hinder our exports when they sell more to us in the first place? Theirs is the greater loss not ours.
August 8, 2019
Why would the French farmers vent their anger on Macron, rather than on the English, with their bizarre Red Lines? Do you not remember Operation Stack, over no more than a couple of miles of inshore waters and a handful of fishing boats?
This will be of a wholly different order.
August 8, 2019
So just to be clear what do you think the French Farmers will do Martin? Stop other Countries transporting goods through France to the UK by blockading their own ports and stacking and racking vans on their side of The Channel?
August 8, 2019
a-tracey
Yes Tracey, that’s probably what they will do. And most likely set fire to some live English sheep and harass English pensioners, including war veterans.
It’s how the French show their gratitude.
August 8, 2019
What di you mean by “the English, with their bizarre Red Lines?
August 8, 2019
Edward 2
It means he’s an ungrateful hater.
August 8, 2019
@Martin in Cardiff; “Why would the French farmers vent their anger on Macron,”
Because that’s what French farmers always do! Even when their problems are directly caused by the EU/CAP and not Frances national or regional govt. It will be no different this time – unless of course europhile rabble rouser’s intentionally misinform the French as to why problems have occurred…
“Operation Stack [..//..] This will be of a wholly different order.”
But unless the EU play silly buggers will there be any need for “Operation Stack”, even if customs checks are reintroduced, there were very few problems previously when the TIR system of Carnet customs clearance was used, even before the UK joined the EEC.
August 8, 2019
Sounds about right Jerry, operation Stack will only come to pass if ferries don’t actually sail…
August 8, 2019
There will only be tariffs if the EU decide to impose them. There is a simple mechanism to avoid that by agreeing in principle to sign an FTA within a reasonable period of time. WTO rules then allow zero tariffs to apply in the meantime. Of course the EU may decide, in order to teach the UK a lesson, to put up tariffs and other barriers. But it will be very clear where the move has come from.
As Sir John says, the current round of project fear focuses on an inexplicable shortage of food and medicines – imports in other words.
August 8, 2019
There will have to be tariffs according to WTO rules- and a FTA will take years to negotiate- No! what’s going to happen is that Dover/Calais will be choked off and import exporters are going to have to resort to loading into containers through Southampton and Felixstowe, but unfortunately these ports and Rotterdam Antwerp are working at max at the present time and not suitable for perishables, so unless some new ports are built, which will take time, I cannot see how long delays can be avoided
August 8, 2019
JohnP, No, There is no obligation by the WTO, to impose tariffs. Indeed quite the reverse – the WTO is tasked with reducing tariffs.
Since there are no delays (generally) now, it is not in the interests of either UK or EU businesses to introduce delays. Moreover most bulk business transactions nowadays depend on supplier inspection and documentation – whether car parts or food – so no need for additional inspection delays at the ports for TIR sealed vehicles and containers.
August 8, 2019
No, you haven’t got that quite accurate.
Even the EU cannot take years to sign a simple one-page WTO GATT Art. XXIV agreement to keep our tariffs as they are – it would take them about 24 hours to do it, at any time before 31st October, and that would include the time they’d need to make the ink, sharpen a quill (carefully observing EU bird-protection and H&S requirements), then persuade one of their interns to go out and purchase a sheet of paper, by agreeing to make him or her an ambassador.
But – a big but – they could only ‘agree’ to such a WTO formality by actually intending to conclude a FTA with the UK within the next few years.
Q. If the EU admit that they do not ever intend to conclude a FTA with us, why would we consider signing any agreement with them in the first place?
A. Precisely!
August 8, 2019
A World Bank’s study forecast little impact on UK exports because the EU’s import demand for UK exports is fairly inelastic (eg £15.2Bn North Sea Oil exports in 2017, most to EU). http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2018/05/26/does-the-eu-favour-no-deal/#comment-937188 https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/unitedkingdombalanceofpaymentsthepinkbook/2018/pdf
August 8, 2019
Economists for Free Trade: “Once a US trade deal* is in place and UK prices are at world levels, the apparently surprising answer is that all these tariffs, both ways, are paid by EU traders… So overall, a failure to do a trade deal will cost EU businesses £18 billion a year in lost profits. £5 billion of this will go to the EU in extra revenue, £13 billion to the UK Treasury… the fact that some of it is directly levied by the Commission will add to its unpopularity with business opinion, which is the biggest Brussels lobbying voice.”https://brexitcentral.com/why-a-us-uk-trade-deal-ought-to-mean-us-finally-getting-some-sense-from-brussels/
(*) or interim FTAs with CANZUK+Brazil+ Mercosur+Japan/TPP
August 8, 2019
Richard1
“Of course the EU may decide, in order to teach the UK a lesson…”
In which case we’ll retaliate in a most vicious way. Some of us are itching for a fight with the French led ungrateful EU.
August 8, 2019
Already started by not buying EU goods.
August 8, 2019
UK exports were £634Bn in 2018, 14% higher than 2016 UK exports. Creating DIT in 2016 seems to have helped government support Trade.
August 8, 2019
It is evident that you fail to comprehend why people voted leave.
August 8, 2019
It is perfectly evident why people voted leave.
Many people are a bit dim and rather bigoted.
It is genuinely not rocket science.
August 8, 2019
Even though your tone and views are representative only of a small minority of Remain voters, they illustrate very well why remain lost.
August 9, 2019
Richard1
You are right about Andy’s remarks, but your generalisations are not much better
August 8, 2019
Your argument has convinced me, I now want to Remsin. I thought I voted Leave to regain control of our laws, borders, money and fishing waters but it turns out I was just dim and bigoted. Thanks to far nicer people than me, people like you who never generalise, name call, insult or belittle others I see the error of my ways.
Yours in gratitude. Etc., etc.
August 8, 2019
I appreciate that your opinion is that we will be worse off and you keep repeating this like some ancient mantra but if you look at the main post Brexit Treasury 15 year report it says growth will continue, so we will not ne worse off.
And that is the most doom laden official forecast so perhaps you might revise your own claim Andy.
August 8, 2019
Do you realise how bigoted and dim you sound, Andy, with such a comment? It is extraordinarily revealing about your mindset but you seem too dim to realise it?
August 8, 2019
Andy thinks there are 17.4m dim and bigoted people who voted Leave. Why is it that this doesn’t surprise me? Do try to be a bit less insulting, Andy, there’s a good chap
August 8, 2019
Andy
…..in fact, many voted to leave precisely because of bigots like you !
It can’t be easy lugging that chip around, get rid of it Son.
August 8, 2019
It is evident you join Mr Carter in a failure of comprehension.
August 8, 2019
Henry
If you are right then over the many years since the single market started we should have seen a “massive” difference between the ease with which EU nations trade with each other and the constant delays, long queues at ports , “massive” extra tariffs and extra bureacracy suffered by non EU nations when they trade with EU nations.
Have you noticed any difference because I haven’t.
Being an expert on international trade perhaps you can explain.
August 9, 2019
You seriously haven’t noticed how you can now go to France, buy as much cheap booze and tobacco as you want, and bring it back to Blighty without any checks or demands for excise duty? And order a book from Germany and have it delivered without any customs checks or declarations? You seriously haven’t noticed that? The problem here is that you Brexiters don’t even understand what the single market is. You don’t even know what you have voted to lose.
Reply We decide excise duty. You do not understand the single market. We could leave and abolish excise duty if we wished. Leavers voted to leave the single market and to offer a FTA
August 9, 2019
I was thinking about world trade rather than a one person ordering a book or bringing a bottle of booze back from Calaus, Henry.
But I note you have diverted away from actually answering my original point.
Anyway you are wrong about drink and tobacco.
There are limits based on reasonable personal use.
Bring in beyond the HMRC’s recommended personal allowances and you can have your goods taken off you and even be fined and prosecuted.
August 9, 2019
I would suggest you have a word with the Chancellor before you suggest abolishing excise duty. Actually, anyone who understands how tax works could help you to understand things better than you obviously do.
August 9, 2019
Still carefully avoiding answering my original point Henry.
Now creating a classic red herring by falsely claiming I want to abolish excise duty.
Why do you remain fans keep making stuff up?
August 8, 2019
If the roads around our ports and those on the other side are gridlocked owing to delays in traffic carrying exports, and the docks blocked with delayed ships, then that would doubtless impact on imports too.
But look, don’t the Brexit Party voters and their kind want every vehicle coming into the country strip-searched for stowaways anyway? “Close our open borders” they cried.
August 8, 2019
Are you in favour of illegal immigration Martin?
August 8, 2019
Illegal immigration is illegal. Did you miss the memo?
As for Brexit Party voters they are in favour of tough borders for other people.
However should tough borders result in so much as a 2 minute delay for a Brexit Party voter at passport control at Heathrow, they scream blue murder on the pages of the Daily Mail.
August 8, 2019
As usual you completely miss the point young Andy.
Martin made up the claim that “Brexit Party votersand their kind want every vehicle coming into the country strip searched”
Perhaps the most ridiculous made up claim I’ve ever read by remain fans.
But you couldn’t help yourself in joining in with your own unique brand of nonsense.
August 8, 2019
So you are saying that there will be no delays, but that depends on your most vehement of wishes being denied, that of hermetically sealed borders and forensic searches of every vehicle, that being the whole reason for which you voted Leave in many cases.
You don’t really seem sure what you want, do you?
August 8, 2019
Well you need to consider why over the last decades there have been no delays or long queues when goods arrive here at UK ports of entry, from outside the EU.
In Europe there are no queues nor delays when goods arrive from outside the EU.
Yet you tell us it will happen only to the UK when we leave the EU.
I am not impressed y your claims.
PS
I have no “vehement wishes…of hermetically sealed borders”
And that is not the reason I voted to leave the EU.
I am quite happy for the UK customs and border force to carry on working as they have been doing for years to detect illegal immigrants whilst we have a generous and fair immigration policy.
You are just being very silly making stuff up that I have not said nor implied, but I am used to remain fans making stuff up every day.
August 8, 2019
BOO HOO MARTIN, stop stamping you feet but keep holding your breath.
August 8, 2019
“If” the roads are gridlocked, Martin?? I thought you Remains knew the roads will be gridlocked?
Presumably you know this because every molecule of Russian methane is strip searched for contravention of the sacred EU laws as it enters the hallowed grounds of the German provinces of the EU empire.
August 8, 2019
Henry. I voted to Leave accepting worts and all in the knowledge that in the longer term we would be far better off both economically and politically. Please stop this insulting condescending ‘I didn’t know what I voted for rubbish’ if you are so certain of the future please let me have next weeks lottery numbers. Can’t, well there’s a surprise.
J R is correctly pointing out that what has been spewed out by the Treasury etc and presumably gleefully supported by you at the time has been proved to be absolute bollocks.
Henry. We don’t believe you.
August 8, 2019
Alas – in the longer term we will be worse of economically and politically – so you clearly did not know what you were voting for. Awkward.
August 8, 2019
Oh Andy. Have you heard the expression: ”It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt”?
You keep on doing it, don’t you? Never mind. It keeps you off the streets, I suppose.
August 8, 2019
Excellent spot on.
You win the prize for dealing Andy nonsense.
Not ‘Arf!
August 8, 2019
I no longer watch the news as it is wall to wall hysterical rantings from silly reporters.
They never question the fact that why would we stop importing food and medicines.
Farmers whinge about losing EU markets yet we are a massive importer of food.
There are plenty of non EU countries willing to fill any gap.
August 8, 2019
Most countries in the world are already knocking on our door to sell us anything the EU has but cheaper, but the EU will not allow us to open it until we get out NO DEAL! It is a massive oportunity for us and the rest of the world.
August 8, 2019
tim
EU not allow us? My local supermarket is selling avocados and asparagus from Peru today. Poor quality compared to EU produce.
Not surprised they will come knocking on our door – nobody else would buy the stuff.
August 8, 2019
Margaret Howard, Actually I have found world food to be better quality than EU produce. I buy British where I can but Israeli carrots, New Zealand onions, sweetcorn from Senegal, are all good food. I now avoid EU produce where I can – even altering my diet to do so.
August 9, 2019
NickC
” I now avoid EU produce where I can – even altering my diet to do so.”
Oh dear, what a sad thing to do.
No Belgian chocolate
French brie/camembert/wine/
Spanish fruit and veg
Danish butter (their Lurpak is heaven on earth compared to New Zealand/Australian rubbish)
German bread/sweets/pickles
And many more things that make life so much more enjoyable?
What a sad life you must lead.
August 8, 2019
This free trade you refer to, who is that with, as it is not with the Eu is it ? We pay c 20 billion a year for the privilege of trading with europe. That’s more than it would cost net if applying tariffs to imports and exports. And these border checks don’t seem to affect trade with South Korea, New Zealand, Australia, America, Chile .. I could go on.
August 8, 2019
According to the BBC “45,000 dairy cows could be culled in Northern Ireland, in the event of a no-deal Brexit”
I don’t know if this is would be spontaneously by lighting strikes, mass bovine suicide, by the IRA, or by farmers. According to the BBC it will happen, so it must be true.
August 8, 2019
Saw that. A third of milk exported to Republic of Ireland which tariffs would end.
So send that third to the mainland or make cheese or butter with it.
Maitlis on BBC is getting worse. She recently had Norman Lamont as a guest but rather than allow him to answer she used the interview to present her own views at considerable length.
August 8, 2019
no change there then?
August 8, 2019
Agreed, she is argumentative, doesn’t get the best out of whoever she interviews, let alone personal bias.
Maybe we should remember the BBC’s raison d’etre – inform educate entertain
August 8, 2019
The UK will need to step up Cheddar production to replace Irish Cheddar, which will be hit by tariffs, though not in NI. Use the NI milk for cheese.
August 8, 2019
Irish cheddar? – didn’t know there was one.
August 8, 2019
Exactly!
The case for removing the Licence Fee and making the BBC EARN its revenue by the quality of its programmes is now surely unanswerable!
Incidentally, to my knowledge the BBC has never said the country will ‘LEAVE the EU’ – the narrative is always the country will ‘CRASH OUT’ of the EU!
August 8, 2019
reminds me of the figure £39bn someone came up,
‘we need to alarm people with threats of dead cows littering the fields….how many shall we say? …err how about 10,000 ….oh no, no real impact. OK so what about 50,000? A bit too much like a guess, lets settle on 45,000? All agreed? Good thats it then.’
August 8, 2019
Stephen, sorry I don’t watch the BBC news anymore so could you tell me why they think Northern Ireland dairy cows would be culled, couldn’t their milk be sent into the UK because apparently according to ‘Martin in Cumbria’ the French are going to be holding up our imports. As Peter said there should be sufficient, cheese, yoghurt and other products needing dairy imports from within the UK.
I read an article the other day about how much money is to be made out of parmesan a hard cheese that takes 12 months to mature, the Northern Irish should look into how to make a similar long store product for domestic use so they don’t have any waste in the meantime.
August 8, 2019
sorry – Martin in Cardiff
August 8, 2019
I did not say that a-tracy. I said that French people angry with any loss of trade would not take that out on Macron, but rather on the English. I did not specify how, but mentioned Operation Stack in relation to another minor dispute which caused very major problems both here and across the Channel.
August 8, 2019
A-tracy, Don’t worry! No one has seen Martin-in-Cardiff and Tory-in-Cumbria together in the same room. Same style moniker, same style factless Remain rants.
August 8, 2019
You need to get your facts right. If we’re in a single market, EU sales aren’t actually exports. We’re subject to all those rules made by 27 other countries. We voted to not be subject to their rules and to free ourselves up to sell to and by from others under our own negotiating regime, not one made by lots of other countries and interests from Germany to Greece.
August 8, 2019
Mr Carter appears not to understand that international trade is a duality. There is a buyer and a seller. If the buyer is damaged the seller is also damaged. This basic fact is far too basic a fact for Mr Carter.
If the EU intend to damage trade between UK based companies and companies operating from the Eurozone then both parties and their respective dependents will suffer.
Let the EU do their vicious, idiotic best. The British people have been in this situation before. We don’t too kindly to threats from idiots
August 8, 2019
Sounds like a threat from an idiot to me.
The UK is leaving the Single Market. It will therefore not be able to continue to trade in that market. It’s simple enough, and saying that is not a threat.
August 8, 2019
Martin said: “The UK … will therefore not be able to continue to trade in” the single market. Really? No trade at all? Earlier on you were merely postulating delays. Shouldn’t you make up your mind? Can you come up with the name of another 3rd country – in the WTO – which the EU prevents trading in the single market? No?
August 8, 2019
Well that isn’t correct Martin.
Trade will continue after we leave.
There are loads of nations that currently trade with the UK and Europe without being in the EU’s single market and have done do successfully for decades.
August 9, 2019
Thank you Dominic for a perfect summary of Brexiter logic. 1. We are leaving the single market! 2. O no, incredibly it turns out the EU will no longer let us participate in its single market! 3. The EU is evil.
August 9, 2019
How do non EU nations manage to trade successfully with the UK and Europe despite not being in the single market Henry?
Seen any shortages of Korean or Japanese cars and motorbikes or Chinese and American goods over the last decades?
Presumably you think these terrible delays customs queues and huge tariffs will only apply to trade between Europe and the UK.
August 8, 2019
Donald trump said when we won the vote! It wont make jack shit difference!
Now accept democracy.
It is very important to note that Parliament’s legal intention for the UK to leave the EU is not conditional upon a withdrawal agreement
August 8, 2019
Please forecast our life if we Remain.
For the past four years all extreme Remainers have done is forecast doom if we Leave, I have heard nothing about the sunny uplands of Remaining. Why?
August 8, 2019
The immediate future? More QE to stop the eurozone falling into recession.
August 8, 2019
A Sedgwick, The Remain option had an attached condition – negotiated by David Cameron – an opt out from “ever closer union”.
I would be interested to know from the usual suspects whether a) they knew they were voting for that condition; b) they can prove every Remain voter knew; c) the EU and they would honour that condition if the UK revoked the TEU Art50 letter (what they want us to do); they expect us to respect their “democratic” wins, since they don’t respect ours.
August 8, 2019
As will the EU trade with us – c£80Bn a year more than we sell to them?
Two side to every argument!
August 8, 2019
BeeCee – if the £ remains low we won’t be able to afford or want to buy imports so the £80 billion will decrease if not disappear, no?
August 8, 2019
No
August 9, 2019
Why not? You must know it seems.
August 8, 2019
and if the EU clearly imposes difficulties on our exports, we will do the same on products from them to us. But the EU ‘politbureau’ want us to feel the pain, so we can expect tough treatment even if they get worse. They don’t want UK to escape and thrive, many more may want out.
August 9, 2019
Fred, you are 100% right that both sides will suffer – there are no winners from Brexit. But about 48% of our exports go to the EU27. About 6% of the EU27’s come to us. So the EU will be hurt by a no-deal Brexit. But the UK will be hurt eight times as much. No country in peacetime has ever inflicted so much harm on itself. That is why the world is watching Brexit with utter bemusement. Why would a country be so stupid as to trash the agreements that are the basis for almost half its export trade? No country has ever done such a thing before, no country will again. Why (the world is asking) does the Uk want to reduce free trade?
August 9, 2019
Interesting you use percentages because in cash terms the EU sells us far more in cash terms.
You are comparing 28 nations with one nation.
Most of the 28 do little trade with us.
Have a look at the effect on Germany and France.
PS
It isn’t free trade.
We pay many billions a year to the EU for the privilege of a huge trade deficit.
August 8, 2019
Not quite as bad as the BSE absurd over alarmism or the foot and mouth overkill.
Endless scares that are either complete drivel or at best huge over exaggeration.
Business will find ways round all the EU and absurdities inflicted on them by governments and the EU. They have had a lot of practice. At least out of the EU we can get rid of many of these absurdities.
August 8, 2019
Carney still engaging in project fear too. Running the country and optimism down is this in his job description? Why is he still in post?
August 8, 2019
No we did not , we voted for the removal of Britain from the EU`s desire for ” ever closer union” and by the way , that is a phrase not much heard latterly . Trade will continue with the countries in the EU as it has in the past , there is no reason other than the EU`s attempt to frustrate a democratic vote , to prevent it .
August 8, 2019
As to choking off “Free Trade” , it is not free , the EU sells the illusion of “Free Trade” , a country has to pay its membership fees to enjoy “Free Trade”
August 8, 2019
To be pedantic, some countries in the EU pay membership fees – most don’t, relying on subsidies from the likes of us.
August 8, 2019
You still don’t get it- it’s a consumer market they are building. When the poorer countries are sufficiently developed then they should be in better position to buy goods from the richer ones.
August 8, 2019
And to paraphrase Animal Farm – All countries will be equal, but some will be more equal than others
Let’s leave and get on with our own destiny
August 8, 2019
Last I saw 9 pay in 19 take out…and how does that work with QMV…always outvoted that’s how….
August 8, 2019
But Henry, in talking about trade, there never was a deal. All that has been offered is an implementation period and a promise to talk about trade provided we sign the Withdrawal Agreement. Something has been lost in translation.
August 8, 2019
WA …. is basically a long list of things we are expected to pay for, we have no say on, to last for anything between 2 and 10 years. Then after accepting that, if we are ‘lucky’ they ‘might’ consider starting to talk about the respective trade positions. I imagine we will be expected to pay roughly the same as we do now.
So, in summary, we will not have actually left, have no rights to strike deals with other countries, pay more than now, and only be allowed off any of the clauses if the EU agrees. That is your wonderful Remain position. Some ‘deal’!
August 8, 2019
If you believe our exports will suffer then why do you campaign against Brexit? Why don’t you let history prove you right? Just think, you Remainers will be in power for a hundred years within 6 months of our leaving the EU if you are right. Just think of it A Hundred Years of Pure Dictatorship!!!
Of course, you are wrong and you know you are wrong like all poor loser Remainers who are frantic, going out of their minds knowing our people will insist you are all exported to the EU tariffs or no. Enjoy your trip!
August 8, 2019
You said “You voted to choke off free trade with our biggest export market”… note from below only 46.6% goes to other EU members, that leaves 53.4% to other countries – which is larger?
“From a continental perspective, 54.2% of UK exports by value were delivered to other European trade partners (that percentage compares with 46.6% going to European Union members). Another 23.1% was sold to Asian importers while the United Kingdom shipped 15.2% worth to North America.”
August 8, 2019
I thought the EU did not allow subsidies ?
British Steel
British Dairy Farmers
Both industries unable to be helped by the UK Government because the EU will not allow it .
August 8, 2019
Wrong, that is exactly what they are saying, shortages of food and medicine etc., lead the news stories, as for exports, if Calais doesn’t want the through put there are other ports.
August 8, 2019
Henry, a very misleading interpretation. Assuming WTO rules in year one the EU will pay us about £12 billion, we will pay the EU about £5 billion. Nett gain for HMRC about £7 billion.
This assumes trade remains static from todays situation. It will not of course because we will gradually change our sources of much imported food. You might have to buy Waterloo instead of Brie. However EU food is estimated to cost us 20% more than it could be bought on th World market. Cheer up and see what happens. Start thinking can do, it is the way it is going to be in future.
August 8, 2019
“A MASSIVE blow to free trade.”
But still a darned sight cheaper than paying EU contributions.
August 8, 2019
Why all the negative stress is made on what we will suffer by leaving EU, and not what we will gain.
Freedom to make our own decisions without referring to EU rulebook.
Setting our own tax and VAT rates, which would will loose as per Lisbon Treaty
Not being forced into single currency,
Have independent right to set our own interest rates
Not having to pay EU enormous annual subs.
Absolute freedom from all EU Treaties that have taken away Our Sovereignty.
Retaining Our Monarchy and not being an EU Colony.
Staying as Great Britain and not being called Province 22x of EU.
Having our Laws made in GB and not in EU.
August 9, 2019
Yes, Mr Redwood is master of the straw man argument. The weakness of the pound has continued more or less for three years and worry about Brexit is obviously the main factor. And as for the Treasury predictions of 3 years ago – they were based on the belief that we’d be leaving sooner rather than later. People paid no attention to the referendum result and just carried on spending – so no recession. But he pays no attention to the huge drop in business investment and to the City jobs that have already gone. He’s one of the most deluded politicians in Britain, or should I say England, as that’s his only real interest.
Reply A bitter and ill informed reply
August 10, 2019
Well, are you concerned about the huge fall in business investment?
August 8, 2019
Sir John,
There have been many gloating comments on this site from ‘remainers’ thoroughly enjoying the slight fall in Sterling following Boris’s election win. Interesting, as a WTO Brexit looks more and more likely, that Sterling is already strengthening once again.
As you say, once we are properly out of the EU, Sterling will inevitably rise and fall. However, I have said many time here, I am confident that with positive political leadership delivering all that is possible for the UK on the world stage, Sterling will continue to strengthen.
It will be interesting in a year or so’s time to see just how, with the inbuilt serious problems caused by the ‘cart before the horse’ introduction of the single currency, the Euro is then faring. I fear the worst and the UK must be well clear before anything hits the fan.
August 8, 2019
Interesting that Russia is favouring the Euro in it’s move to de-dollarise-In Q1,the %age of Russia-China trade settled in Euros was up from 7.3% to 21.9% with the $ down from 75.8% to 55.7%.Discussions are also underway with the EU to examine the scope for moving settlement of EU-Russia trade to Euros and Rubles too.
August 8, 2019
Mitchel
But what will the Americans do about that? Was not the Iraq war fought to stop Saddam selling his oil in euros rather than dollars?
(Hope they won’t ask us to invade Russia and China with them -:)
August 9, 2019
They can’t find any takers for Iran,let alone Russia or China!
August 8, 2019
Pominoz
“, Sterling will continue to strengthen. ”
I hope you are right. But tell me why did the euro replace the pound as the world’s reserve currency after the dollar? This happened well before Brexit and obviously other underlying causes were responsible.
As I understand it the markets decide these things which tells me that they have more confidence in the future importance and well being of the euro than that of the pound.
August 8, 2019
Ms Howard says: ”I hope you are right”….
No, you don’t, Ms Howard. There is obviously nothing you would like better than to see your country suffer simply so that you can shriek ”I TOLD you so!”
August 9, 2019
LJ,
As they say here, “you’re fair dinkum”.
August 9, 2019
LJones
THis is not what Ms Howard is saying, that is entirely your own conclusion not her’s
August 9, 2019
Its what MH always says. She never has anything good to say about the UK.
August 8, 2019
It wasn’t just the bbc but all the other mainstream media outlets coverage with there endless stream of interviews with remoaners, these scare monger project fear muppets are all going to look pretty stupid after the 31s October when we leave and after we settle down start to build our great country back up again, and hopefully a general election so we can get the chance to fill Westminster with true believers in democracy Great Britain and carry on with our lives knowing we have done the right thing
August 8, 2019
McDonnell knows that, if the Conservatives lead a “No deal” Brexit and then the UK flourishes… Labour is finished. He can’t afford to take this risk.
August 8, 2019
Oldwulf,
You make an interesting point, I’d add that the Marxist Labour party of Corbyn and McDonnell is really on its last legs, Labour should, and probably will, reinvent itself after the Marxists are kicked out in the next year or so. They cling to a Stalinist state ownership idea that can never succeed.
I read an interesting suggestion that the Labour really needs to return to its roots of the ‘mutual society’ model of the 19th century, but updated to appeal to today’s self-employed, vocational, gig economy folk.
August 8, 2019
@Peter Wood. Yep …. history has taught us that left wing economics do not work.
August 8, 2019
Indeed – the proviso is important. If the uk flourishes. The govt can waste no time in implementing policies to make sure it does.
The alliance of Marxists and Scottish separatists should alarm all who value freedom, democracy, the market system and the UK.
August 8, 2019
On the other hand, McDonnell reportedly says if Boris is beaten by a vote of confidence and doesn’t resign, Labour will tell the Queen they are taking over. Sinister. If that lot get anywhere near power, we may never get another General Election. They must be routed by honest Labour supporters, but unfortunately the £3 members are mostly young and have no idea how Marxists actually work, so full of dreamy stuff are their heads.
August 8, 2019
McDonnell wishes Labour to fail. It is the only way he thinks he can become leader of the Labour Party.
August 8, 2019
Mr. Corbyn is a leaver, he has spent all his political life voting against the EU.
He therefore wants Brexit to happen.
This is why he is not prepared to lead a coup in the form of an alternative “unity” government in order to stop Brexit and if Brexit is a disaster he feels he will be well placed as a result to gain power, provided he has not been seen to aid either a no-deal Brexit or Mrs. May’s surrender/fake Brexit.
August 8, 2019
We now have a new chancellor. He is in charge of the treasury.His first task should be to issue a proper forecasts.The media can then revise their reporting.
August 8, 2019
Javid is not doing enough quickly enough – where is his uplifting lower and simpler tax vision – what is he waiting for?
August 8, 2019
Sir John, HM Treasury should now publish the assumptions & methodology of their ‘Brexit analysis’ as requested ten months ago by you, 60 other MPs, senior businesspeople & leading economists. https://brexitcentral.com/time-chancellor-came-clean-absurd-project-fear-economic-modelling/ https://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Letter-to-Chancellor-12.10.18.pdf
And then re-run their economic model with realistic assumptions (mitigation measures being enacted; likely FTA timings etc).
August 8, 2019
and state there will no more politically biased forecasts.
August 8, 2019
How are you defining a “proper forecast”? The four thousand odd occupants of the Treasury and the Bank of England, are still using the same old orthodox economic models (DSGE; VARs etc), none of which can handle a paradigm shock like Brexit. Hence, Carney has to hand out BS forecasts (on behalf of, and taking the blame for, the Chancellor) because he has nothing else to offer.
Remember, the Treasury and the Central Bank are one and the same, indivisible in a fiat currency economy. Alas, neoliberal governments still pretend that monetary policy (interest rate setting) actually works.
BTW. For all 500 million “boiling frogs” in the EU austerity kettle, the IMF illustrates how near perfect its flatlining of its twenty eight economies has and still is turning out since the 2008 crash. The UK has actually managed to shrink its economy; its currency shrunk with it. The Pound was at $1.6 at the start of 2010, it is circa $1.2 now; a 25% fall. https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPDPC@WEO/USA/MAE/GBR/ADVEC?year=2019
August 8, 2019
As you rightly say, the Treasury and Bank of England have now become ‘The National Guesswork Authority’ and prove over and over they are not worth their salaries.
August 8, 2019
Graham 1946
Do not get too over-excited old chap
August 8, 2019
Sorry – don’t get it. Try again. Seems like a simple sentence, not like the rabid Remainer tosh we get here all day long.
August 8, 2019
ONS “In February 2019, the UK’s gross national income (GNI) and Value Added Tax (VAT) contribution to the EU was £2.9 billion, £1.0 billion higher than in February 2018”
Why are we paying more if we’re shrinking?
August 8, 2019
2019, the draw-forward request from the EU to all member states was for 4.7 months’ worth of contributions in the first quarter, compared with 3.7 months’ worth in 2018, which has led to the higher payment this year.(same source document)
August 8, 2019
The Pound was at $1.6 at the start of 2010, it is circa $1.2 now; a 25% fall.
Was this during which the US $ was constant in value against other currencies and gold? It never rose in value to make the £ look weaker?
August 8, 2019
Exactly the BBC endless anti-Brexit bias is huge, They just cannot help it it seems, almost everyone who works there is a remainer. These people hardly know anyone who is not like them. Their bias on this is almost as bad as it is on climate alarmism exaggerations, political correctness and wanting ever more taxes, enforced “equality”, more regulation of everything and bigger government in general. They call it “public service broadcasting”! It is actually propaganda and unfair competition funded by an unfair tax on televisions.
You say “despite the hikes in Stamp duty, restriction on mortgages and tax rises for Buy to let” – indeed all of which need correcting now by Javid. The stamp duty in particular has hit larger London and south east properties hard and damages job mobility. The landlord (and thus tenant) taxes are totally unsustainable and hugely damaging, the bank lending rules damaging to investment and new property provision. The suggestion of no eviction without good reason would be a further disaster for all but the parasitic lawyers.
August 8, 2019
About half of Newsnight last night devoted to project fear – over cows in Nothern Ireland and 14p milk tariffs. Fear not the industry will adjust just fine (one way or another). Businesses and customers will find a way round whatever daft taxes and rules that the EU and government foolishly put in place to inconvenience them. Process the milk in the North perhaps, make more cheese or similar. Where there’s a will there’s a way.
August 8, 2019
The Newsnight broadcasters have not left the country. That says it all. If they believed in what they spout they would have packed all their belongings and gone to a country where they can eat. Better not pick Ireland. They are going into poverty and our fields will be scattered with a plentiful supply of their workers.
August 8, 2019
BBC’s Brexit scaremongering is relentless.
Today they were implying that it would adversely affect professional football.
They also carried a story about veganism being the solution to global warming.
I hope the BBC canteen will immediately set the appropriate example by changing to a 100% vegan menu.
August 8, 2019
One only has to read the work of Robin Aitken to see exactly why the BBC is now a socialist outfit. The question of whether it is left wing or not can be settled by one day of heeding its output. The only important question now is: how soon can we be rid of it?
August 8, 2019
Bob, don’t even go there. I had to face a weekend of lectures from my daughter and her husband who have both gone vegan. Honestly, it is the new religion. Came back home to decent food and didn’t feel like I was eating cardboard. They ignore the amount of animal life killed to protect crops. They also ignore the economic damage it would do and the fact that most of us like meat!
August 8, 2019
reminds me of the joke Q ‘ how do you know if someone is vegan? A ‘ because they tell you’.
August 8, 2019
‘Honestly, it is the new religion’
– Let’s return to the old traditional religion of this country (Traditional Roman Catholicism and Traditional Anglicanism) that made this country GREAT (in best sense of word). Traditional Christianity that gave us:
– CONSERVATISM! (Edmund Burke – based on traditional Christian values and antipathy to French Revolution and its modern socialist values etc)
– FAMILY VALUES (and depending on family instead of state), Mum + Dad
– WORK ETHIC (depending on honest, hard work instead of lies and corruption). Quakers in business. Medieval Catholic guilds.
– THE MONARCHY (with Queen Elizabeth I like Queen Bee over working bees producing beautiful honey – now we’re like over-individualistic cats that no-one can harness properly).
– PARLIAMENT
– Great LITERATURE (Shakespeare, Austen)
– Great MUSIC (Handel)
– Great and Beautiful ARCHITECTURE (Medieval Cathedrals and churches and Sir Christopher Wren)
– THE JUDICIARY
– OXFORD, Cambridge, Eton, Grammar Schools
– Great BRITISH HUMOUR (in particular Samuel Johnson)
– PATRIOTISM (ancient Christian virtue going back to the Middle Ages). And Public Duty.
It was Traditional Christianity that formulated the idea of the sacredness of a nation’s sovereignty / independence, whilst having good relations with and having strong respect for one’s neighbours and for using proper strategy and tactics and hard work and honesty to achieve big things in our country’s life.
If we returned properly to be a country of Traditional Christianity, tax would be at maximum of 25% or less, we’d have a strong and stable economy, healthy people in terms of body and mind – a truly, happy, humorous nation.
God Bless HM The Queen, The Union, England.
August 9, 2019
Well said, Ed M – subject to the huge caveat that conversion (soul-saving evangelicalism, i.e: individual personal, internalization of God’s dynamic eternal word, ‘by grace, through faith’) was bitterly and wickedly resisted by the religious establishment, such that many Reformers were imprisoned, exiled or burned, and Wesley had to preach at Epworth to a crowd of thousands, whilst standing on his father’s grave. It’s said the great (evangelical) awakening of the 18th century saved Britain from a revolution like the French, and (I’d add) no doubt set America on a course as bastion of the free world. It should be very evident by now that Brexit has deep spiritual roots. Much more could be said, but let’s leave it there!
August 10, 2019
We still have most of those things – except Edmund Burke and Catholic guilds – or most are at least easily accessible. Haven’t you older generation learnt that you can’t go back to anything? No I don’t like hip hop music either, but forcing everyone to listen to Handel isn’t going to make it go away. As for lies and corruption – as if they didn’t exist in every previous era! Christianity could no longer be a basis for society in the present era because people’s minds have moved on, but it still exists if people want it. I find it extraordinary reading these ‘manifestos’ by Brexit supporters. Brexit isn’t going to take us back to Victorian or medieval times, or back anywhere. It’ll probably take our economy back a decade or two, that’s all.
August 8, 2019
Fed up
” They ignore the amount of animal life killed to protect crops”
Which animals are killed? Do enlighten us.
August 8, 2019
Margaret Howard said: “Which animals are killed?” That comment must take an award for truly the dumbest – dumber than many Remain comments even.
Honest, I don’t know why I bother, but go and buy a bloody organic lettuce Margaret and just look at the life living on it.
August 8, 2019
MH, thousands of ducks are killed each year to protect rice fields. Thousands of rabbits too. Thousands of small mammals are killed when harvesting crops not to mention pigeons and even fawns left temporarily by their mother’s. Enough for you?
August 8, 2019
I would be entirely content to see fewer EU nationals manning our Premiership teams. At the moment it seems that one English team’s Italians are playing another’s Italians. But let’s be smart and selfish. The number of working visas given to EU footballists should be optimised so as to maximise the wealth of this country. I suspect that that would justify a reduction in the number of Europeans playing here.
August 8, 2019
good point …fewer EU nationals, more UK young talent given game time.
August 8, 2019
Many deserve ‘porridge’ for their blatant scaremongering and propaganda.
August 8, 2019
Bob
veganism being the solution to global warming.
They still have not got it Bob. Climate Change is all about he power of the sun and things totally outwith our control. They might mention a volcano erupting but never about the effect on the climate of what is discharged and its chemical make up.
What in MHO is the environmental damage caused by the actions of man.
World leaders can fly in from all the world and sit around tables do discuss all of this but go back to their countries ignore what they have discussed and carry on doing what is best for their country and its people. As in India’s case they are building power stations to burn millions of tons of coal to drive their industries forward and they are not alone in their thinking. But as you say the media only produce and print what they want us to hear.
Veganism has become the latest religion to surface and its disciples are invariably of the mindset of those who have created the religious beliefs churned out at every opportunity known to man regarding renewable energy .
August 8, 2019
Ian Terry, yes and I bet at the climate change summit they sat down and ate meat.
August 8, 2019
After hearing the BBC bore on about climate change this morning, my number one task for today is to go and buy the largest juicy steaks I can find.
God I am sick of being lectured to by the BBC, especially when they seek to make us live like monks, meanwhile they promote mass immigration driven population expansion.
August 8, 2019
@Lifelogic. The BBC has a number of problems from its overpaid “stars” and management, the license fee/tax for over 75s and now finding itself on the wrong side of history by supporting Remain. It has dug itself into a hole and
needs to stop digging.
August 8, 2019
We were told yesterday about how many miles of traffic would be built up on the motorways in Kent if we leave with no deal.
No response from the government to these claims; was no one available for comment?
If we do feel there may be port disruption, wouldn’t it be a good idea to lighten the traffic until things are sorted out? For example, we could suspend imports of cars from the EU. Given the number of vehicles on our roads, we could probably keep that up for 12 months with no adverse effects.
August 8, 2019
Yes, just in case we should issue a state of emergency, no cars from Germany or France.
August 8, 2019
The Kent Motorways and roads are fully clogged on a far too regular basis, usually caused by French Union action and more recently by Belgian Customs.
It is unlikely to be worse when we have left
August 8, 2019
For example, we could suspend imports of cars from the EU. That would give a clear signal to the German, French, and Italian car makers, would it not.
August 8, 2019
The speed limit on German and Italian cars aren’t compatible with British roads anyway. The motorway speed limit in the UK should be 80mph on clear stretches then the speedometer only needs to go up to 80-5. The gearing and crawling speeds on the British use cars could be better engineered to achieve better fuel use and more efficient engine use at 20mph and 30mph such as the speeds most people travel around at now because of ‘smart’ roads and technology.
August 12, 2019
but John – we don’t need to take any action on imports such as cars made in EU.
After leaving the EU our economy and personal wealth will be so damaged nobody will be able to buy a car. Problem solved ( for us – not so sure about the EU factories and staff).
August 8, 2019
Disruption at Dover would adversely affect Irish lorries using the UK as a land bridge to the EU.
Prioritizing British transport until spare ferry space is available should give the EU and RoI encouragement to sort out Calais and a more sensible attitude tout suite.
August 8, 2019
No ROI is going to have to ship directly from Rosslare and Dublin to the continent they know there will be too much disruption a to Dover
August 8, 2019
That was my point.
August 8, 2019
Why? It’s quite simple. They lied in order to sway the vote (and it worked on many voters), and they expected Remain to win so their deliberately wrong forecasts would never be tested.
As Leave did win, it goes this way … the Treasury, Carney and co claim the credit for averting their fabricated disaster. They see it as a win-win. They think they can continue to lie with impunity and nobody will notice.
August 8, 2019
I don’t understand why Carney is not on gardening leave yet.
August 8, 2019
Bob mainly because for the last 3 years we have had a remainer Government, let us see how long he remains in the job now!
August 8, 2019
John Fitzgerald
Mr Carney has been in the role since post-crisis July 2013 and is due to step down on 31 January next year. (2020)
His tenure was twice extended to ensure stability ahead of Brexit.
August 8, 2019
“Ensure stability” Oh ohh hahahahaha . . . .
August 8, 2019
They smugly thought they had a one way bet.
August 8, 2019
Good morning
The biggest wopper was not said in the Referendum but long before. That was over joining the Euro. The CBI especially was very vocal that we should join.
We also never hear about what Remaining in the EU means and what it would look like. No mention of the increase in contributions etc.
But we have come to expect this from a Remain led media.
August 8, 2019
Mark, we also need to hear more from our politicians about the effects of remaining and what exactly it would mean. It should all be shouted from the rooftops.
August 8, 2019
I’ve no doubt that the remain element of commenters here would be glad to explain why we should be happy (even proud) to pay a lot extra to remain in their EU. But they never talk up the great and glorious future that could have been ours for the paying.
As they hold their EU is such high esteem, surely they should be extolling it to us, not crowing about the doom that will descend as we leave?
August 8, 2019
Mark B
“The biggest wopper was not said in the Referendum but long before. That was over joining the Euro. The CBI especially was very vocal that we should join.”
And they were obviously right. As it is the euro has become the world’s reserve currency after the $ while the £ has dropped like a stone.
August 8, 2019
I’m sorry, Margaret, that you find it necessary to display your ignorance about the Euro in such a public way! What a shame that you don’t know where to get reliable facts.
August 8, 2019
But Margaret, the £ has “dropped like a stone” whilst we were in the EU. We’ve also dropped from 5th biggest economy when we joined, to – according to you – the 7th position, also whilst we were in the EU. Do the benefits of your EU empire never cease? (That’s sarcasm, by the way).
August 9, 2019
NickC
I am sorry t have to bring it to your attention, but your responses to Ms. Howard unfortunately says more about you than about what she writes. Not particularly well done NIck
August 9, 2019
I thought Nick’s reply was brilliant
August 8, 2019
I find it hilarious that a number of things which have been listed on an obscure website blog by one Dom Cummings have been announced in the last few days as government policy and decisions. What a weird way for the political class to bring about change. Disruption is needed, I just wish there was a better way for choices to be made.
August 8, 2019
Todays announcements confirm this even more.
I feel as someone who has read Dom Cummings blog over the last few years, and his feedback in the comments, that I already know what government announcements are going to be made over the coming months. It is all so predictable to me.
None of it ever been in a party manifesto. None of it been subjected to the rigour of someone cynical like me sitting with Dom and discussing the obvious perspectives he cannot see due to his different background.
Like the GDS (government digital service) it sees a problems but gets many of the solutions completely wrong, but we are supposed to religiously bow down now.
Ah well I don’t know what to say really, it has all become too comical for me, I cannot take our supposed leaders seriously.
August 8, 2019
Iain Gill, So – according to you – you are right and Dominic Cummings is wrong, but you’re not prepared to give an example of his view and your “rigorous” reasoning against it? Forgive me for being cynical, of course.
August 9, 2019
I never claim to be perfect or always right.
But I do know a lot more about some subject areas than Dom does. And he analysis of those areas is clearly wrong when looked at through the eyes of someone who has spent his life looking at those things.
Don’t misunderstand me, I actually like Dom (although I have never met him), and he reminds me of myself in many ways, I think the lazy following the crowd approach is often wrong and I think its good to see someone prepared to stand out from the crowd and disagree with some sacred cows. Indeed given a day around a whiteboard I think we would probably iron a lot of things out, and he would modify his views.
And he is certainly correct that the public sector needs some big disruption to the inertia and way is has done things, and its culture. As indeed does the party system in politics.
I would be happy to debate with Dom, but there is not enough space or the whiteboard it would take, to explain quickly why in the detailed areas I am particularly thinking about.
etc
August 8, 2019
I see little point in agonising over all of this now, we are so near the end of this phase we should wait to see how things are on the week of Monday 4th , 5th, 6th November?
The next phase will be in trying to shore up the economy, possibly quelling street protests arresting looters and otherwise smoothing out the political situation.
Then after everything settles down into a new order it will be time to go back to Brussels to look for a FTA, where the first thing to appear on the table will be ‘movement of people’, followed by the 39B still owing and then of course the NI border?
August 8, 2019
Well Jason the policy on movement of people and residential rights for EU citizens already here, has been set out by the UK government sadly the EU refuses to talk about it.
The delay in leaving has reduced the money that we might owe.
I say might because the EU has refused to deliver an itemised bill.
Regarding Ireland, the UK has said it will not build a hard border. The Republic of Ireland has also said the same thing.
So unless the new EU army invades and builds themselves a wall very little will change.
August 8, 2019
In any case WTO is “risk based” rather than requiring a hard border…
August 8, 2019
Edward2- It’s all part of the WA- including the itemised bill and just because you havn’t seen it- D Davis and Mrs May have both seen it- so it’s real
August 8, 2019
Yes JohnP I know that, but as the Withdrawal Agreement has failed to get through Parliament three times it isn’t an effective contract.
And the sum mentioned was based on us leaving last March so the amounts will have changed now we are leaving Nov 1st
August 8, 2019
JohnP, Have you seen it? If you have, let us see this “itemised bill” too, so we’re speaking with facts. If you haven’t, you’re waffling.
August 8, 2019
Edward2, Since our exit is to be 31 Oct 2019 (?), there is only 14 months left in the current MFF. All our obligations under the MFF have been paid for by our net membership fee. We simply would not have paid more, if we had remained in. So the only benefit the EU will lose by our leaving is the net annual contribution of, say, £10bn. That means we cannot possibly owe more than £10bn x 14/12 = £11.7bn.
August 8, 2019
What agonising? You mean the continuous droning on by Remainer media?
‘The next phase will be in trying to shore up the economy, possibly quelling street protests arresting looters and otherwise smoothing out the political situation.’
Eh?
I could see some of that happening should we not leave as expected. Anyway you show a vivid imagination, which branch of the media do you work/write for?
August 8, 2019
Traitor, you would deny us freedom!
Better to live one day as a free man than a thousand years as an EU slave!
August 8, 2019
It is as though MSM have Stockholm syndrome, exacerbated by the EU ‘funding’ they also receive.
That can also be applied to the CBI, universities, numerous quangos and politicians. Sad really that so many self acclaimed ‘intelligent’ ‘experts’ can be so easily brainwashed.
Or perhaps they are not suffering from this syndrome at all and it is just really something far more base. It is merely because they have such high opinions of themselves and their self interest is such that it makes them so susceptible to bribery.
The former requires physiological treatment, the latter requires something far less sympathetic. Remove all their State funding and close all the quangos.
August 8, 2019
Indeed.
As you say “Sad really that so many self acclaimed ‘intelligent’ ‘experts’ can be so easily brainwashed”. Well perhaps not brainwashed but they are neither independent nor impartial (often not experts either) and often suffer from group think or better watch my funding think?
We see this with the great climate alarmist, bogus science exaggerations & conspiracy with the BBC and certain charities (and vested interests in farming grants) to the fore. But then all but a tiny handful of mad MPs voted for Ed Milliband’s rather insane climate change Act.
August 8, 2019
Perhaps calling them ‘mad’ for voting for EM’s CCA is too kind. It’s probably more like their having been told by their civil servants what they should be thinking.
”Too much trouble to waste time reading it all yourself, old chap. What’s the point of keeping a dog and barking yourself?”
A bit like May’s ‘WA’ I daresay.
August 8, 2019
“Remove all their State funding and close all the quangos.”
And which quango will authorise that?!
August 8, 2019
The Treasure weren’t wrong in their forecasts. The Treasury’s plan was to scare and terrify people. That’s propaganda. Their findings were deliberate and mendacious. They’ve been exposed. They need to be culled without mercy.
Brexit has revealed the disgusting and abhorrent nature of what the UK government, Parliament and the wider nature of governmental bodies (Quangos) and those employed within as become.
It has exposed the hypocrisy and contempt of the print media and especially the BBC for the British people
It has exposed the Electoral Commission and its appalling pro-EU and pro-Labour bias
I believe it has also exposed the nobbled nature of other bodies of the State
Impartiality and professional integrity is dead and now we have politicised public bodies acting to crush dissenting voices and eliminate threats to their existence
That is the upside of Brexit. That we can now see the maggot infested carcass that is the British political state and how Labour and the EU (and indeed many other politicians both Tory and other parties) have taken over and can exercise huge influence even when not in government through Quango
And yet still even now we hear talk of a rehashed WA without the backstop. It’s unacceptable.
Johnson must deliver a no-deal Brexit. Anything else is Remain
August 8, 2019
Well said, it is not a pretty sight.
August 8, 2019
Well said Dominic. Brexit has certainly exposed the lies, the deceit and the self-interest that exists in our countries institutions.
August 8, 2019
Dominic
Absolutely 100% spot on.
August 8, 2019
Well said, Dominic.
My only concern is that if Boris does deliver a No-deal Brexit, although greatly welcome, then afterwards, all the wrong-doings of the Establishment will just be swept under the carpet – and so they will continue to lurk, waiting, waiting for retribution, perhaps to one day rise up from the ashes and rejoin their beloved EU.
I only have confidence in Farage and The Brexit Party to truly clear the swamp, to bring radical change, and drive forward a positive outcome for Britain.
August 8, 2019
Although I rarely watch BBC news nowadays, I did witness some of this when a leave academic was being interviewed. I thought it was rather a clumsy attempt to be more balanced. The presenter gave the impression of being unrehearsed in her manner of questioning. This is a clumsy attempt by BBC editorial staff to alter their stance in response to the change in Government policy an mood of the Country.
It is blatant window dressing. They still refuse to challenge the doomsayers by demanding evidence to support their ludicrous claims. They will not highlight the inaccuracy of Treasury or BoE forecasts.
They are a disgrace to journalism and have brought their Charter into disrepute.
August 8, 2019
It was not about making an as far as possible accurate financial forecast. It was about supporting the political message that leaving the EU was a bad idea. To do this financial reality was allowed to take a holiday. The BoE, the Treasury, the CBI, the Trade Unions, the Senior Civil Service, the BBC, the Guardian, Channel 4, and many unscrupulous politicians were allowed to lie and propagandise the downside of leaving the EU in ways that suited their desire to remain in the EU. It did not stop at financial disaster, they sold a plague of locusts wherever they could. May, her Cabinet, and civil service advisors all aided and abetted this barrage of lies. They should be pilloried for as long as they exist.
The above institutions have proved themselves totally unfit to play a role in the nations life from the day we leave. They must be stopped before they do any more damage to the nation. I would suggest that the process starts as soon as true Conservatism holds sway in the HoC.
The political parties themselves are complicit in that they have largely shown complete contempt for the electorate. They have created a Rubic Cube of proeedure and conivance to thwart the voting decision of the electorate. May even conived with a bunch of Marxist revolutioneries to try to achieve remain by slight of the WA. Even the Telegraph failed to disect the WA clause by clause to expose that it’s iniquity went way beyond the Backstop. Thanks to our host and a few fringe organisations a few of us know the truth.
It is little wonder that politics and most politicians are in disrepute. If democracy is to survive we need many seed changes in the ways politics are allowed to operate.
August 8, 2019
WE no longer live in the relatively sane world we thought we’d grown up in. Anyone from the stars observing the way things are going would really want to partition off this sector of the galaxy to avoid us.
We are being overwhelmed by social-engineering from government, the media, and especially the left – All of these have combined to tell us what to do, how to think, and how to talk. They get irritated when we do not follow their wisdom, so they try to scare us with horror stories, as though we were infantile.
Socialism and a desire to control the masses completely are at the heart of all this, so no we can’t trust the media, and no they won’t stop trying to frighten us until we behave exactly as they want us to by forgetting about Brexit and any real hope for the future.
August 8, 2019
”… try to scare us with horror stories…” Yes, they do, and it is constantly surprising when remainers fall for them. Even those remainers commenting here don’t seem to present reasoned argument in favour of their much-revered project.
It must be because they desperately want to believe still in the status quo for which they voted back in 2016, partly because they don’t want to be proved wrong. But surely also because their EU has been shown up to be anything but the benign and stable entity they thought it was.
Thank goodness we’ve seen the light. It’s certainly taught a lot of us about politics and the coercion and machinations of government that we didn’t know before!
August 8, 2019
But it wasn’t for the status quo, it was for EVER CLOSER UNION. They just didn’t know it because they either do not understand what the EU is or, refuse to admit it.
August 8, 2019
Who’s told you how to think? Precisely nobody.
Though, with respect, you appear to have learned to be an idiot all by yourself.
August 8, 2019
Just to advise andy, so you know where you sit….. Those with a socialist mindset don’t think – they only ramble on with incoherent phrases they’ve picked up from the pub floor…. Thinking real, original thoughts and expressing their own ideas is limited to those without the socialist mindset, which includes those that see Brexit as an opportunity for the future.
Those with a socialist mindset are destructive by nature and always look for the worst in people, love to repeat nasty gossip, and are vindictive to everyone.
Don’t worry tho’ there is a cure for your malady.
August 8, 2019
Ah yes, another well thought out and constructed piece from Andy. Can’t you think up an insult a bit more original?
Still waiting after 3 years for you to tell us all what we will be missing by not voting to be a colony of the EU. (Before you try to knock that down with more of your fiction, it was actually stated by Verhofstadt’s office that that is what the EU wanted, on broadcast tv).
August 8, 2019
“Why doesn’t the mainstream media revisit this and ask those responsible why they got it so wrong?”
The simple answer is because they do not wish the UK to leave the EU. Hence their focus is on painting the darkest picture they can about potential issues facing the UK when we exit from the EU. They are not going to change their approach anytime soon.
August 8, 2019
I have been struck by the view that leaving results in an uncertain future and that remaining offers certainty. Both take place in the future and are therefore inherently uncertain but more particularly to suggest that remaining is somehow less risky is absurd. Are those who say that unaware of the EU’s plans for expansion, a European army, a united states of Europe, Europe-wide taxation, the admission of other countries, rolling out the Euro to more and more countries, proposals for a two speed Europe, to name but a few?
August 8, 2019
”A single currency means a single government, and that single government would be the government whose policies determined every aspect of economic life….” (EP)
And very soon far far more than just ”economic” life.
August 9, 2019
LJones
You are obviously much better informed about the future government of the 17 EURO countries than the citizens themselves? Interesting
August 12, 2019
not really – the citizens are sleep-walking, lots of us stand back incredulous at the laziness. But then, they do have form.
August 8, 2019
The EU is waiting for, if not actually working towards, a Euro financial crises of a sufficient degree that they can say a complete financial integration of tax and spending is the only solution to the crisis.
August 8, 2019
John, we get many blogs across the internet arguing over the accuracy of this-or-that forecast, as to the likely material effects of such-and-such a kind of exit from the European Union.
Hasn’t the most important point been lost in all this though? That is, that the European Union is absolutely unprecedented in the history of this war-torn, blood-drenched planet?
It is the most enlightened, civilised, ambitious project, for peace and for solidarity that humanity has ever seen.
Let us make no mistake, the intentions of many in the Leave campaigns were to destroy that project, by using UK exit to start what they hoped would be a domino effect. Nigel Farage said as much expressly. The fact that they have such close ties with evident US supremacists such as Steve Bannon is no mere coincidence in my opinion.
Fortunately, it seems that these cynics have failed, and the damage that they are inflicting on this country will be in vain in that respect.
Reply If only. The EU’s interventions in former Yugoslavia and Ukraine were not as you describe. How do you defend their austerity policies for Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy?
August 8, 2019
Oh Martin, so it isn’t all just about trade then, as certain posters here keep telling us?
‘It’s a project for peace and solidarity’: I can’t think why that sends unpleasant shivers down my spine. Perhaps I’ve read too much European history – I’ve absolutely no problems with ‘peace’, it’s the ‘solidarity’ bit that worries me.
August 8, 2019
You simply don’t know what it means, sm.
And it is why the English have lost nearly all of their DB occupational pensions – you wouldn’t show solidarity with those threatened with losing them.
Most people in France and in Germany still have them. They did.
August 8, 2019
”It is the most enlightened, civilised, ambitious project, for peace and for solidarity that humanity has ever seen….” Really?
I’m sure if you read a lot of history, you’d have to acknowledge that even the worst regime (think National Socialist, etc) represented itself (possibly even believed itself to be) exactly what you describe.
Much better, for good or ill, that each country is in charge of its own destiny and not involved in some grandiose and self-serving ‘project’ that rules them all.
But still – it makes a nice change for someone to be standing up for their belief in the EU rather than running down and being negative about their own country.
August 8, 2019
L Jones
“Much better, for good or ill, that each country is in charge of its own destiny ”
Good. So you won’t mind when Scotland and Ireland leave the UK union which was after all foisted on them?
However to be left a rump England at a time in history when huge trading blocs rule the world we shall have about as much influence on world affairs as Liechtenstein.
Reply Scotland recently voted to stay in the UK and Northern Ireland’s majority has not asked for a vote to leave as they wish to stay in the UK
August 8, 2019
You keep saying “rump England” but England has 85% of the population, wealth and tax revenues.
August 8, 2019
Reply to reply
Surely you are aware that the Scottish vote took place before Brexit. Everything has changed since then and Scotland is bound to leave. Thanks Brexiteers.
August 9, 2019
“Scotland is bound to leave”
Not according to recent polls margaret
August 8, 2019
MH. How was the union foisted on the Scots? I seem to remember history books saying how broke Scotland was and they were only too pleased when we rescued them. They recently voted to stay in the union and it was supposed to be a once in a generation referendum.
August 8, 2019
OMG ….what are you taking?
‘It is the most enlightened, civilised, ambitious project, for peace and for solidarity that humanity has ever seen.’ Really?
It has always been a project to ensure the wider Europe to be run by tin-pot would be dictators, collected together presenting a plausible face to fool all of the people all of the time. The backdrop of course is Germany failing twice by military means, but this time trying economic might. And the serfs queue up to be controlled. Oh dear!
August 8, 2019
‘It is the most enlightened, civilised, ambitious project, for peace and for solidarity that humanity has ever seen.’
Sounds like the ‘Co-Prosperity Sphere’
August 8, 2019
Martin in Cardiff
Hear Hear, the most intelligent contribution on this blog. JR’s reply however is spurious and not worthy of a man of his professed standing.
August 8, 2019
John, you know as well as I do, that the trouble in former Yugoslavia was stirred up by nationalist separatists, largely funded by unaccountable US interests, as in Ukraine. All that the European Union did in Ukraine was to set up Euroclubs of the kind commended by Putin in Russia. The EU did not intervene in Yugoslavia. How could it? It had no military.
It was Hollande and Merkel, who managed to broker a de-escalation of conflict with Putin, and certainly neither the UK nor the US.
So Greece’s problems were caused by the EU, and not by PASOK-style socialism, then? Interesting.
August 9, 2019
Martin in Cardiff
Good response
thank you
August 8, 2019
You can knock the BBC all you like. And while they do swing remain, they do at least make a pretence at being impartial.
I am very grateful for this, as a number of media outlets have given up any pretence at being impartial at all. The Telegraph is a particular disappointment to me, as it seems to have changed from a solid conservative newspaper to Boris Johnson’s mouthpiece since he became a columnist.
August 8, 2019
They just aren’t impartial. Panels are always loaded with remainers. The whole angle is about how dreadful leaving will be, without any balance on the upside. It is totally biased.
August 8, 2019
The single most exposed politician on the BBC – and he’s not even an MP – during the months before the referendum was one Nigel Farage.
What do you mean?
August 8, 2019
Odd I must keep just missing Nigel on the BBC.
When is he next on Martin?
August 12, 2019
he’ll be on again as soon as there are protesters (rent a dull weekend crowd) moaning about the price of cheap cider. It is all Farage’s fault. Another possibility is when something is chucked over security heads – media love the childish pranks the feeble-minded like to play. We will be treated to a near 10 year old clip of him holding a near full pint, as if he is permanently ‘ a la Juncker.’
August 8, 2019
Martin, what utter tosh. Farage hardly gets any air time. Are you on a different planet with Margaret?
August 9, 2019
Martin, Why do you just make up authoritative sounding statements that have no basis in fact, ie lies? I think you’ll find the ” single most exposed politician on the BBC … during the months before the referendum” was David Cameron. And there were a lot of others well above Farage in exposure too.
August 8, 2019
nonsense.
Yesterday morning early on 5 Live they had a ‘member of the public’ from each of the 2 positions. The lady Remainer went on uninterrupted for several minutes dishing out a collection of financial, NHS, imports, medicine, employment etc disasters. Out came the cliches. Finally the possibly older gentleman got a couple of minutes trying to make calm rational observations which were interrupted about 7 or 8 times by the presenter. Impartial? – by arse.
August 8, 2019
There is a big difference between newspapers which are commercial businesses surviving on their sales and their advertising revenues and the BBC which is publically funded and has a requirement in its charter to try to be impartial and balanced.
August 8, 2019
but Osborne at the Evening Standard abandons ‘impartial and balanced’.
August 8, 2019
No, the BBC make the smallest gesture they think they can get away with in terms of every news and current affaires programme they run. It now creeps into otherwise interesting documentaries. Not so long ago Tony Robinson, rabid socialist, did an interesting programme of travels through the USA. He was allowed to spoil it all by standing on 5th Avenue in front of Trump Tower and having a lengthy rant about Donald Trump.
True the Telegraph could have been far more informative on the numerous clauses in the WA that are detrimental to the UK. It isn’t just the backstop. They should have forensically disected it and informed far more UK citizens.
August 8, 2019
forensically disected? Good heavens no. You can’t inform the masses about TRUTH! Whatever next, someone might suggest our ex-PM never for a moment was going to allow ‘Leave means leave’. Poor woman tried her best, its the MPs are the problem.
August 8, 2019
A pretence of being impartial? Where exactly are they impartial? They are 99.9% left wing, pro EU, anti-Trump and Boris, big government, anti-landlord, anti-business, big government, anti car and plane (save for them) art graduates full of anti-scientific green crap alarmism. They want ever more employments laws and red tape and PC diversity drivel. All funded by an unfair tax on TV’s under threat of imprisonment and unfair competition to other providers. In short wrong on almost every issue.
Did I miss anything?
August 8, 2019
My son worked at the BBC in White City for a number of years, while I was very active in Conservative London politics. He cottoned on very quickly not to mention that fact during staff chats, as did another employee in a similar position, as there was constant derision of Conservatism.
August 8, 2019
In fact there are not two sides to any so-called debate. We voted Leave. The debate ended the day after the vote in real terms.
August 8, 2019
you are correct, any debate (didn’t seem much like one) is over. Now there is only a spiteful, angry tirade from those who lost. They can’t get over it. Playground whistle sounds…..shut up, get back in class, and do what you are told. We ARE leaving.
August 8, 2019
The Left is far too dangerous to argue with.
The craven “Right” has given them too much power.
Their “arguments” are totally bogus anyway…they just want their agenda ( imposition of communism) to succeed…that’s all …and they are happy to put forward increasingly illogical nonsense …because in these mad times they know they will be listened to.
There is no merit in appeasement and there is treachery in going against one’s own beliefs and principles.
Refute their whining by ignoring and scorning and leave the EU asap.
It is our only and seemingly last chance.
Unless that is you are all having us on.
August 8, 2019
Ever since the referendum result was announced, the broadcast media have been the propaganda outlet for those determined to overturn that decision by the electorate and prevent the UK from leaving the EU under any terms.
August 8, 2019
The bias against Brexit at the BBC is obvious.
OfCom has not acted.
This is corruption.
The reason they get away with it is because people in public life need the BBC and dare not criticise it.
The one person who can call the BBC out – with some actual facts and examples of bias – is the Prime Minister. I hope he does so.
August 8, 2019
Offcom is like all the ‘Regulators’ – on the side of the entities they are supposed to be regulating. They are useless and should be wound up. The latest farce of reducing electricity bills for those on standard tariffs by a pathetic amount, whilst the power companies earlier piled on price increases at a time of wholesale price reductions is a case in point. Just a fig leaf for the politicians and totally useless.
August 8, 2019
Mike Pompeo says the US is ready for a trade agreement as soon as the UK has left the EU
August 8, 2019
Yes so we’re counting on big Mike Pompeo now to see us through- that we have sunk this low in our expectations- I won’t hoĺd my breath
August 9, 2019
You do know that trade agreements need the approval of Congress right? You do know that Speaker Pelosi has made clear there will be NO trade agreement with the Uk unless and until the UK accepts the Irish backstop? It must be tough for you English nationalists to grasp that little old Ireland has the EU26 plus the US at its back, and so can call all the shots. Brexit means enfeeblement for the UK, smart countries like Ireland do deals and keep allies. But hey, it’s what you voted for
August 9, 2019
Trying to block a trade agreement that will create wealth and jobs in America will make the Democrats even less likely to be successful in elections than they are now.
President Trump will coast to a second term.
PS
If blocked he could sign an executive order and by-pass Congess.
He has done it before.
August 12, 2019
Executive order? Not with a trade deal.
The actual constitution specifically grants that power to Congress in Section. 8, otherwise known as the commerce clause. SCOTUS’ conservative originalists would not take kindly to a president violating the literal words of the founding document:
“Section 8:
The Congress shall have Power… To regulate Commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several States, and with the Indian Tribes”
PS: You are very much overestimating how much the average American is going to be aware of / vote based on trade with the UK, given what is currently going on with China. The UK simply isn’t as important to our economy.
August 8, 2019
The BBC is totally negative. Not an optimistic voice on the payroll.
August 8, 2019
What many within the MSM and on the Remain side of the argument fail to report or understand is, any flux in the markets, before, during and since the referendum has largely been driven by the -mostly Project Fear- forecasts, not by Brexit its self, as there has been no Brexit! We saw the same sort of flux before and during the SNP’s indyref.
But, at risk of resuming a debate from a few days ago, the sort of MSM bias we are seeing with regards Brexit, and AGW for that mater, is what one gets when the media is exposed to full force of the market economy, with almost unlimited programme makers and outlets these days, but very little real editorial regulation. Populism, also known as ‘Dumbing-down’, is the price we are all now paying for those changes.
Through to the early 1990s neither the BBC nor ITV/ITN (and thus also Ch4) would not have, and did not, got away with the lazy, lopsided, style of reporting and delivery we have today. For every action there will (eventually) be a reaction…
August 9, 2019
Jerry, What complete tosh! I first observed BBC bias in a midlands factory where they interviewed a Trotskyist shop steward (selected by the union) and presented him as an ‘ordinary midlands working man’. That was in 1976/7 about (Labour) government “cuts”. The BBC has had a love-in with the champagne left for half a century.
August 9, 2019
@NickC; Missing the point as usual, but thanks for your opinion non the less, doing nothing more than point out that the MSM have always reported different opinions.
The fact that you found a “Trotsky” supporting, union picked, interviewee totally unacceptable; but -no doubt- found/find a “Capitalist” supporting, company director picked, interviewee totally acceptable; tells us far more about YOU than it does the BBC or any other MSM outlets for that matter.
As for the outcome of that 1976/7 interview, what if the majority were as disgusted as you were, who benefited from it, Mr Wilson or Mrs Thatcher?…
Interviews are meant to be thought provoking, not to be consumed like fast food or a bottle of house plonk, or that is what they used to be before the dumbed down, bite-sized, news and current affairs we have today!
August 8, 2019
What particularly annoyed me was the way the UK public just accepted it like so many timid sheep when George Osborne threatened us with a “punishment budget” before the referendum if we didn’t vote Remain.
It was totally outrageous that such a prominent member of the cabinet and the man entrusted with managing how are taxes are allocated should have been allowed to get away with a bare-faced threat like that.
I could also mention Obama’s “back-of-the-queue” remark but I consider Mr Osborne’s behaviour especially reprehensible given his position and immediate relevance to our daily lives.
August 8, 2019
any residual liking for Obama was washed away with Cameron persuading him to say
“back-of-the-queue”. Easily bought!
August 8, 2019
It’s a shame that the “House Price” prediction didn’t come true!
Would really help the 20 – 30 somethings.
August 8, 2019
Has there been a clear-out of those in the Treasury responsible for producing the Project FEAR forecasts? They clearly have no talent. And will there be an investigation into the political direction of the forecasting process and the extent too which it may have been manipulated for political ends? There needs to be. Now! Regarding Media coverage of Project FEAR Mk 2, what is frequently missing in news coverage is a demand, by the interviewer, to the maker of claims to identify, in detail, the failure mechanism that would substantiate the claim. I suspect that the reason journalists don’t demand this is that they know, full well, that no such failure mechanism stands up to scrutiny. This is a time for detail – not reliance on vague assertions.
August 8, 2019
There is no going back to the way we were. This applied not from the referendum date but from the date that the referendum was called.
It was never a vote on Leave or Remain. It was a vote on Leave or Full-On EU integration. A win for Remain would have been taken as a mandate for dropping our vetoes and exemptions and the ratchet would have tightened and tightened as it always does.
We will get shafted if we stay in now.
Why can’t Remainers get this ?
August 8, 2019
Because they STILL think the EU is as it was in 2016, seeing it as immutable and stable.
This is why remainers here (Newmania, Andy, Ms Howard, etc) can never even try to tell us all the positives about what a change of heart and staying in would mean. They can only spout negatives about how we’re all doomed unless we pull the EU shackles even tighter.
Do they really think the EU wouldn’t punish us?
(Thank goodness the question has become academic.)
August 8, 2019
L Jones
I really hope you have more constructive contributions in the future?
August 8, 2019
I don’t think I was trying to be ”constructive”. I was actually hoping to prompt various remainers to tell us all the positive things they believe about their EU and why they believe we should remain.
Perhaps YOU could now be constructive, Mr Brown. Can YOU tell us?
August 9, 2019
L Jones,
I will see what I can do
August 9, 2019
L Jones,
I will of course come up with some more good examples in time, but here is one. The open labour market in the EU, brought me to the UK (before I became British as well) and I have since paid 45% or more in tax every year to the benefit of Britain and my family.
The new in flux of EU workers have also contributed net positive to the UK economy and growth according to all reliable statistics over the past ten years or longer (Euro stat and LSE)
I will revert with more later.
thank you
August 8, 2019
Bill, pot calling kettle black springs to mind
August 8, 2019
We were told, just last week, we can stay in on current terms if we like.
Our positive reasons for wanting to remain are never published.
Mr Redwood is, rightly, scared of them.
August 8, 2019
Don’t want to stay in on our present terms – they stink. Don’t want to stay in at all. Never seen any positive reasons for staying in – certainly you have never provided any although you have been asked over and over. Perhaps you can make a list for us dummies? All you can come up so far with is invented gloom and doom.
August 8, 2019
‘We were told, just last week, we can stay in on current terms if we like.’
THESE CURRENT TERMS WILL NVER CHANGE? Sorry about the caps.
August 8, 2019
And if you believe that, Andy !
The true intention behind referendum was to destroy the Tory right wing and to deliver us unto the EU.
August 9, 2019
Andy, Which current terms? 2016’s? 2019’s? Or what you voted for – Cameron’s no closer union? Or don’t you know?
August 8, 2019
Anonymous- there is not a snowballs chance in hell that we will stay in now- too much has been said- there is too much division in the land and the most important point missing is that the EU doesn’t want us anymore not as a member anyhow- Thing is that the Farage Widdecombe will have to finish on 31st Oct- so rest assured we are going out. Anything else that might be said is only for window dressing the legacy so that historians will pick up on the right slant.
August 9, 2019
We can’t get it because it is not true. If we stay in, the terms do not change. We can veto any attempt to move to more majority voting, and under a law passed by Mr Cameron no change to the EU treaties can be made unless a referendum in the UK approves it. We can still have this enviable position if we revoke Art 50, as we should
August 8, 2019
It is arguable which is more Kafkaesque, the BBC or Parliament for allowing it be financed as it is with a criminal record for non payment.
August 8, 2019
Last night and again this morning I have noted a typical example of how the MSM distort the facts to convey negativity.
Yesterday Sky News doorstepped Dominic Cummings and asked him how preparations for a no deal Brexit were going and challenged him to respond to Dominic Grieves allegation of arrogance. He denied that he was arrogant and said that Brexit preparations were “going great”.
It was also reported in the papers and by other means that Dominic Cummings said that MPs do not get to choose which votes they support.
If you listen carefully, what Dominic Cummings actually said was “The Prime Ministers view is that MPs” etc, etc!
I am getting very tired of this disingenuous treatment of journalistic opportunities.
MSMs job is to REPORT the news, not INVENT the news.
August 8, 2019
Yes I saw that, the MSM obsess about Ciummings, they make all sorts of lurid accusations making out he is the Devil incarnate , they doorstep him and get him to make a comment, which they then make out as him running Government and ask how is it that an unelected person has some much power. It’s ridiculous, its an A, B, C of their play book , and they are really stupid to think we don’t see right through it.
August 8, 2019
This is like pointing at a building and saying “Look see no fire I told you” neglecting to mention the fully crewed Dennis Rapier XL Fire Engine which turned up.
Carney cancelled normalising interest rates causing a splurge of borrowing/spending. 2017-2018 savings halved to 3.9% The 50 year average is 9%.Contraction to follow .
Hammond abandoned repayment.National debt which is now over 85% .He said that the Brexit vote would force the government to borrow an additional £122bn . That looks like an underestimate to me. Borrowing is taxing our children
In May 2016 the treasury predicted the fall in the value of the pound would be 15% in 2 years . From July of 2016 (pricing the referendum actually began in 2015)sterling has lost about 25% against the dollar! (At the time of Wilson’s “the pound in your pocket guff..” the drop was only 14.3%)
From June 2016 to Oct 2018 the FTSE 250 rose 12% compared with 26% with other developed economies ( standard comparison) –. If they are only up 17% now then the situation has worsened
The pound will go ” up and down “…. comical and yet deeply sad
August 8, 2019
New Maniac….You conveniently forget predictions made around the start of 2016 to the end could reasonably expect the UK would have escaped the camp within a year. Who imagined the EU, the PM, the MPs, the Media would behave so appallingly that over 3 years later we are not beyond the barbed wire.
Are you going to do a detail report on Greece, Portugal, Holland, Sweden, Italy, France? Comparisons are required.
August 8, 2019
You say Hammond’s guestimate of extra borrowing looks like an underestimate to you. Perhaps you could share with us your figures and where they come from? By the way, whilst mentioning our national debt of 85 percent (too high of course) what about Italy at 130 percent and France at 100 percent? Even the mighty Germany owes 64 percent. They are the leading nations of the EU. What do you say about this?
The pound will go up and down – not comical or sad, merely a fact, which Remainers are very short of.
August 8, 2019
I do not listen to any suggestions good or bad about Brexit any more.
When we do eventually leave, I am confident that as a Country we will manage and then move forward.
I am sure there will be some hiccups on the way, and I am sure there will be some surprises, both good and bad, and of course some unintended consequences, that’s simply a fact of life, no matter what you are doing or planning.
I firmly believe the people, and business (especially smaller and more flexible ones) have enough spirit, intelligence, and common sense to cope and move forward .
I only hope enough politicians help and not hinder the transition, so that we move forward in a positive manner with speed, and do not drag their feet as if chained to a steel ball.
August 8, 2019
Well said Sir!
August 8, 2019
Steve Webb in the Telegraph today on the complete mess Brown, Osborne and Hammond have made of pensions.
“Our complex pension rules deter people from saving and affect their working hours. Reform is needed”
Steve Webb
Indeed it is and the reform needed is to fix a cap of two million inflation linked let anyone pay what they want in with tax relief (actually deferment) up to this limit and let people manage their own investments and then guarantee the system will be left well alone by idiots and muggers like Brown, Hammond, Mc Donnall and Osborne.
August 8, 2019
It would be most interesting if rather more forensic analysis of the E.U. was undertaken by sections of the British media. In particular a detailed examination of its political structure, its currency and the ultimate political destination it intends to reach.
August 8, 2019
A good website for this sort of analysis is facts4eu.org (and our host has noted to the right of this column). As you say, it’s a pity the media can’t be informative and balanced. Vested interests, I suppose.
August 8, 2019
Facts 4 EU!
Here’s a hint.
When they don’t say precisely who they are…
When they don’t say precisely their qualifications ….
When they don’t explain transparently how they are funded …
When it is not clear who is the ultimate owner ….
Then they are not balanced and impartial.
I am still waiting for Facts 4 EU to list the 179 states it claims have no single market and or customs union membership. Narnia????
Interestingly Facts 4 EU claim to be read by MPs. I suspect this is true. But then I have heard the ranting Brexiteer lunatics spew their nonsense with regularity on TV and radio – and rarely do actual facts figure amongst their diatribes.
August 8, 2019
Just try cross-checking their facts to the always quoted sources, Andy. I’ve done this several times and have not found a single error. When they’re not quoting actual statistics, they do tend to go OTT, but their facts are indisputable. Rather than just throwing out accusations of bias against facts4eu, why not tell us where their information is wrong?
No, thought not. Much easier just to claim bias without bothering to check. Do you and others like you, Andy, ever wonder why you have so few agreeing with you on this site?
August 8, 2019
The BBC are telling us on the one hand that we must stop eating beef and dairy because of their CO2 theory, and on the other that a catastrophe is about to befall Northern Ireland as all the cattle will be slaughtered if we leave the EU. Strangely, they don’t tell us what is going to happen to the cattle in Southern Ireland.
August 8, 2019
For my part I no longer purchase Irish beef or butter in the light of the preening and posing popinjay Varadkar ‘s offensive attitude towards us.
My position will never change whatever the outcome.
August 8, 2019
You are not alone. When I avoid the Irish porridge oats in favour of the Scottish ones, I notice everyone else seems to have done so as well. Irish produce is piling up on the shelves.
August 8, 2019
rose….maybe even the horses don’t like them. Send them over to us?
August 8, 2019
I don’t buy Scottish or Irish. English for me.
August 8, 2019
You are very perceptive, Rose. Farmers have been under attack in the same way that Brexiteers now are, for several decades. For a long time I was puzzled as to why. Why were ‘the ignorant’ allowed to favour Tb-infected badgers over cattle (and unborn babies) – a long war of attrition for so many hard working stockmen, many of whom have been reduced to despair, as I saw often with my own eyes. It was my privilege, as a government vet, to help them cope with the associated trauma, and the apparent popular ingratitude towards them. I sense the reason, in both cases, is that a people’s identity is tied up with the land. If you want to globalize and control everyone, you first have to break this linkage. That’s what is really going on at the spiritual level. I always quoted Proverbs 27:23-24 to illustrate this: “Be thou diligent to know the state of thy flocks, and look well to thy herds.
For riches are not for ever: and doth the crown endure to every generation?” There you have it: it’s about our connectedness to the land, and national sovereignty. Farmers, please be encouraged – we need you, and your hard work is valued!!!
August 8, 2019
If there is a glut of beef in Southern Ireland then the EU will buy it up and put it somewhere as Intervention beef like they did in the 1970’s- it’ll be located somewhere near the wine lake
August 8, 2019
Employment has performed well, to be fair, but this is old news .Unemployment actually fell in 2008-12 recession .After the much milder 1981 recession, UK unemployment rose to over 3 million (around 11%) . So we know the Labour market is much more flexibly and under-priced than models allows.. Brexit must depress wages and job opportunity but employment has clearly become much more robust over a long period .
Thanks for John Major and Tony Blair for continuing Lady Thatcher`s reform of Labour supply . It works despite Brexit , yes DESPITE Brexit
August 8, 2019
Newmania – haven’t you noticed? Brexit hasn’t happened YET.
August 8, 2019
maths isnt your strong point. If 3m is 11% what = ? When was the UK 27m population?
When you quote numbers explain what it is you are providing.
August 8, 2019
It gets tiresome having to keep battling the nonsense peddled by Remoaners. These people are really sad anti-democrats who wish to find ever more devious ruses to keep us saddled to the EU. I wish they’d get a more positive outlook and welcome freedom and opportunity.
August 8, 2019
Would you describe the world currency markets who have devalued the pound and the markets in UK stocks which clearly mark the UK down “remoaners”?
Ok so no doubt you think the treasury the OBR the IFS the IMF and the bank of England are part of some huge conspiracy of brainy people but now we know this is a global conspiracy who do you think might be behind it ?
I am just dying to hear your theory ……. off you go then .
Waiting ….
waiting ……
August 8, 2019
No, not a conspiracy. Just people who have been plain wrong about almost everything. And are you suggesting that it’s only Brexit that impacts on the pound’s value? Oh dear, do some reading, including our host
August 8, 2019
Not just sad anti-democrats, but the type of person who stays until retirement in a job they don’t particularly like or enjoy, because it’s safer than taking the risk of moving to a better job, and/or a better future, ie. pessimists.
August 8, 2019
That would mean admitting they were wrong if success ensued. It’s obviously not about the good of the country (hence their glee if they perceive any difficulties) – in many cases, it’s about them.
August 8, 2019
Tiresome? Seriously, grow a pair.
You’ve Brexiteers have barely had three years of it and it’s all largely true so far.
In contrast we had 40+ years of your insufferable Eurosceptic lies about the EU.
We are merely repaying the debt – with interest of course.
Come 2056 we’ll be about level pegging. Enjoy!
August 8, 2019
Meanwhile, in the actual real world….
The pound is barely worth more than a Euro. Thanks Brexit.
Investment has plummeted. Thanks Brexit.
We’re, on average, £1000 each poorer. Thanks Brexit.
Many thousands of good jobs have gone. Thanks Brexit.
And this is as good as your Brexit gets.
Still – if like most of the Brexiteers in Parliament you’re a posh privileged multi-millionaire this does not matter.
August 8, 2019
why dont you go and live in France? It will be lovely there. and things are soooooo much better! Freedom has no price.
August 8, 2019
I’m not a millionaire.I’m not £1000 poorer. My grocery bill has dropped by one third during the last three years.
You have just over 84 days before we leave which will plunge you into unemployment, poverty, no water, rationed bread. Have you sold your house yet? Booked your travel tickets to a home abroad? If not, how will you live?
August 8, 2019
oh – you’ve come in from playing in the garden.
August 8, 2019
Perhaps after 31st October we will be spared your infantile stuff or are you intending to be like the Japanese soldier found in the jungle 20 years after the war ended still fighting?
August 8, 2019
Andy
And when it all goes pear shaped there is the lovely prospect of the red benches to while away ones retirement all the time being rewarded handsomely just to attend every day and enjoy a snooze.
What’s not to like.
Unfortunately we real mortals will have to suffer the consequences of this lunacy.
August 9, 2019
Margaret Howard, So you think that 168 countries in the rest of the world are lunatics? You are displaying your xenophobia again.
August 8, 2019
Andy
Try grafting for a living instead of whinging, spouting negativity, and thinking you’re ‘owed’ riches without having to lift a finger.
Brexit will sort the men from the namby pamby liberals. Get ready to roll your sleeves up. Or consider moving to the continent.
My God Son you really were born in the wrong time, pity you weren’t around during the war, or even around to do National Service.
August 8, 2019
It’s a pity you weren’t Steve.
August 8, 2019
Sir JR,
I wish you had kept your original plans for the log.
The contributions from both sides of the debate are just not serious anymore and using calories on this sort of debate really seems like a waste of time.
I am sure you can do better than this?
August 8, 2019
This, oh dear, coming from someone on this very post chose to dismiss comments as not serious because they didn’t fit with your view! First time visitors to this site cannot be unaware of who the main culprits are!
August 9, 2019
Jiminyjim
Why, don’t you read the comment probably, it goes for both sides and Sir JR’s predictions and forecasts have shown to be just as unreliable as those of the BoE and in particular his views on European domestic politics.
Reply My economic forecasts have been a lot more accurate than the Treasury Quite from here a wrong forecast if you can find one.
August 9, 2019
Sir JR,
Martin Schultz a potential future Chancellor of Germany, I will find some more
Reply I did not predict he will become Chancellor but pointed out some in SPD want him to be their candidate
August 9, 2019
Sir JR,
I have in your next log given you an example of your economic forecasts, which I believe are very selective at the least, if not more
August 12, 2019
bill- it is not compulsory to read it.
August 8, 2019
It is the fault of MP’s that the BBC is out of control on anti-Brexit rhetoric. The BBC is meant to be impartial yet MP’s seem to do nothing to turn this around. I have lost all confidence in the BBC and doubt that will ever change. I now question everything the BBC reports on. Time we stopped their licence fee and time we allowed them to compete with everyone else in the media market place.
But let’s put the blame where it should go and that’s to the MP’s like John Redwood who simply won’t allow an enquiry into bias to go forward.
August 8, 2019
Well the most ridiculous project fear lying I’ve seen so far came on the BBC news this morning. They say tens of thousands of cows will have to be slaughtered in N. Ireland because of loss of milk export post brexit.
Are the lefty traitors at the BBC taking us for fools ? or do they seem to think no one in the UK drinks milk ?
You could laugh at these BBC blair – ites, but for the fact that we’re forced to pay for them and their seditious propaganda.
Another thing I notice is that despite Boris Johnson requiring the civil service to use imperial measurements, BBC news seems to be making sure to quote metric as much as possible, even slipping metric into news items where it is not necessary to quote any measurement at all.
No doubt about it the BBC has got to go, or be purged of all blair – ites.
August 9, 2019
Steve,
this is simple political propaganda a no better than the BBC
August 9, 2019
Really serious comment, Bill!
August 9, 2019
Jiminyjim
I am glad you agreed with my contribution I was trying to make sure you agreed
August 8, 2019
Dear Mr. Redwood,
@Andy has gone into overdrive today!
I must confess to a guilty secret. I have begun to look for Andy’s posts before reading anybody else’s, such is the entertainment on offer!
August 8, 2019
Yes, it’s important SJR continues to publish Andy’s offerings to remind each and everyone of us the depths of ignorance and obfuscation many Remainiacs descend to
August 9, 2019
Dominic,
Personal vendettas and personalised descriptions and remarks are just totally unnecessary even if it covers Andy as well
August 8, 2019
Quite the reverse. I look for ones where there is some common sense.
August 8, 2019
Alan, agree, together with MH. I have missed her over the last few days. As you say, Andy and his ilk are so entertaining and some of the replies are brilliant.
August 8, 2019
Sir John, I have just watched your interview on Sky News; brilliant. You left the interviewer dumbstruck. We need mor of this.
Reply Thanks. GMB have just cancelled tomorrow mornings on the back of that one!
August 8, 2019
Cowards!!
August 12, 2019
Ah! a painful lesson for you and other MPs who engage brain a bit too often. If you crave celebrity and invites to get me out of here, Love Island, Strictly come Dancing, then you must reveal as little intelligence as you can manage. Especially if on the Beeb, where every interviewer/ presenter has to score points against any guest.
A little tip, whenever they challenge you on thoroughly researched, experienced views, end it by saying ‘well, of course, you may be right’. With luck you’ll be invited back by others keen to get some points.
August 8, 2019
All the things JR says are true and have been noted for quite some time now.
But – why is nothing happening? After all, JR is an MP, so a better question is:
What are you going to do about it?
August 8, 2019
Sky News are doing Climate Change again. This time in the rain forests of Brazil. Hunter -gatherers complete with outboard-motor, designer boat, tee-shirts, yachting shorts, and haircuts outdoing any member of a 1970s boy band. But in the forest they use dogs which have a remarkable resemblance to European and British cross-breed sight-hounds.
I had a poor education. We were shown diagrams of our UK isles with largely men with spears, stones and maybe specially reared wolves from captured pups.
That’s why we are exceptionally good at cricket, football, javelin, shot-put, rugby..where originally it would have five men charging with a long heavy wooden lance cradled under their right arms making a try at some large beast where he didn’t want it. In fact we are the best at mostly all things to do with winning our breakfasts.
If only we had then outboard motors to our dugouts we would now be a match for Brazilian hunter-gatherers.
Well we felled trees. We liked to eat meat and have vegetables just where we wished them to be. Climate Changers on Sky News think it bad that enterprising Brazilians are attempting to create civilisation out of a nasty dark dangerous insect-ridden dump of useless forest. Feed themselves and build roads giving access to doctors, nit nurses, education and proper antiseptic instead of rubbing ones wound against tree moss in the hope the possible ‘penicillin’ will prove victorious over the other bio-chemicals and fly and mouse droppings therein.
We are advised to eat vegetables to save the world and not meat. We await the export by these hunter-gatherers via their speed boats an interesting mix of grub infested forest fruit and veg, hand picked by persons without proper soap and plastic gloves to ensure we don’t catch something we have never heard of in our wasteful ignorant modern culture.
August 8, 2019
Of course our wolfie doggies, I’ve seen it on BBC Nature programmes are very clever by instinct. They follow the four-legged breakfasts to the right of them and to the left of them and scare them to follow a trail they know on their territory leading to… a very dead end…. centuries before the French came up with cul-de-sac. We have always been far more advanced than our neighbours in Europe. We love our dogs! Nothing is too much for them. We owe them our very lives.
August 8, 2019
Sky News has just dragged on two experts who claim that trees shedding leaves return nutrients to the forest soil as Nature’s cycle. Every gardener who is in charge of so much as plant pot knows that leafmould doesn’t actually contain a great amount of nutrients. ( Keep leaves off your lawn! ) Many fallen leaves contain toxins to kill off on the ground competition and also provide the roof over the heads of slugs and snails to wipe out any new growth from competitors and invite forest mice to come along and take a nibble at slugs and fresh sweet shoots lacking nasty bitter tasting chlorophyll. That’s why dandelion leaves need blanching and their greeness made pale if a human plans to eat them and not get acid indigestion. See, “even” cooks have known for centuries. Normal Climate Change deniers in the shape of chlorophyllic Greens should sue their former universities.
It is about time the media stops broadcasting fake pseudo-science to bolster up a very unscientific and anti-Nature anti-Human political agenda.
August 8, 2019
O/T.
Boris is going to welcome in unlimited number of scientists to the UK, plus their dependents.
We have a situation in our country in which scientists and engineers made redundant in their later working lives can no longer get work (I am one and I know of others) as interviews are rarely offered – and recruitment agencies often don’t pass on one’s CV when they discover you’ve been unemployed for some time.
I know companies say they are short of skilled staff – but that is because they refuse to recruit older workers, and they don’t value solid design experience over whether you’ve used a particular documentation package say.
Companies should be compelled to select our own well qualified skilled people first before recruiting foreigners. Also younger people should be trained up and given opportunities – many companies limit the breadth of experience offered to their workers, they need to change this.
Boris’s open ended policy will depress pay and opportunities for British workers.
Furthermore it is wrong to suck in talent from elsewhere – leaving other (may be poorer) countries to train people only to lose them – a broadly equal two way flow is OK – it shouldn’t be one way.
A vote for Boris’s policy is a vote for the entrenchment of my and others continued unemployment.
We need politicians and political parties who are on our side and represent us – from my observation, currently all mainstream parties place the interests of foreigners before the interests of the British worker or would-be worker.
And I don’t intend voting for my continued unemployment.
August 8, 2019
I know a professional engineer in-law who comes home and doesn’t watch the BBC evening news but prefers to watch The Simpsons for entertainment and for years always wondered why.
That says it all….
August 8, 2019
While I’m glad that this blog is so popular, it does seem as if suddenly it has many new contributors, and quite a few of them remainers. Of course, this is obviously not a problem with good, balanced opinion, but so many are virulent and quite offensive in their impassioned support for the EU.
I wonder how quickly they will fade away once Brexit is achieved?
August 9, 2019
L Jones,
I like your remarks about good , balanced opinions, please, make sure you hold that in front of mind in the future as well?
thank you
August 9, 2019
Give it up, Bill, you’re becoming a bore. Our host, very equitably, has decided to allow all sorts of views on his site, including, amazingly, those that are at variance with your own!
August 9, 2019
Britain’s top scientists are saying that our world-leading research institutions will be damaged by Brexit. Are they part of Project Fear as well?
August 10, 2019
Yes they are.
There are no reason why the UK cannot continue to be a centre of excellence for research and scientific development.
Especially if supported by our soon to be independent government.
August 10, 2019
These people know what they’re talking about. The government has given them no reassurances at all in three years. And it’s not just about money – collaborations which have been built up over years are now threatened.
August 10, 2019
The two problems with a No Deal Brexit are:
– the WTO tariffs in both directions, import and export
– delays to exports and imports
Let us hope that the EU is willing to an interim trade deal, retaining zero tariffs on a selected range of products, with the emphasis on parts in supply chains.
Delays can be avoided by detailing the paperwork required from both the shipper and the freight carrier of the contents of each container in terms of the published UK and EU WTO rules tariffs. Most traders would be trusted traders – for example, only 2% of containers and other loads would be inspected by customs and checked against the documented contents. That 2% figure is roughly the percentage of containers from America inspected at Rotterdam.
The EU is just as capable as the UK in avoiding unnecessary delays to freight. If it chooses not to do so, some very rough wooing will be required. The UK should cost the unnecessary delays imposed on our export freight and deduct the bill from our exit fee.
Reply We decide what tariffs if any to put on imports once we leave.
August 11, 2019
‘If you think our modern world isn’t seriously screwed underneath’ – and there are good and great things happening too in our modern world – but absolutely terrible things as well.
August 11, 2019
Lastly, Traditional Christianity is NOT here to demolish everything about the world – but only the bad things and keep the good things.
Traditional Christianity has always celebrated so much of ancient Greek Philosophy and Literature and Architecture and so much of Roman Law and Engineering and so on (because these are all, good and divinely-inspired things even though the Greeks and Romans were technically ‘pagans’ – Traditional Christianity (Catholicism / Church of England) teaches that even ‘pagans’ can enjoy and be Heaven through the doctrine called ‘Baptism of Desire’ although we still have to try and convert the world to Traditional Christianity).
But what Traditional Christianity challenged in The Roman Empire, say, and rightly so, was things like cruelty, hedonism / incest, corruption – things like that. Traditional Christianity keeps the good and purges the bad and fills it with peace, joy, love (soft and tough) – and obviously belief in God – all pointing towards positive things in the world beyond (but which is very much part of this world too) and for this world as well.