Yellowhammer – is that it?

The Yellowhammer document when released turned out to be thin and poorly researched.

A lot of it which went largely unreported was grudgingly reassuring. Our water supply will be fine. We will still have normal services for electricity and gas.  Demand for energy will be met. There will of course be no overall shortage of food. There is a “low risk of significant sustained queues at ports outside of (sic) Kent”.

Perhaps the worst warning was that a large number of foreign vessels might  still be fishing in our waters, and doubt is expressed about our ability to enforce the return of our fishery to UK control immediately. I think I have higher expectations of our coastal patrols and of the conduct of our neighbours than that, who should want to obey the new law.

The two worries the Remain press have concentrated on are the unproven suggestions that there could be shortages of some imported medicines and some imported foods owing to delays and congestion at Calais. At no point does the document suggest we will create delays at Dover, and the paper accepts that the UK is not going to impose delay inducing barriers and extensive checks at our border. Their worry about Calais, denied by the port authorities there, is that the new checks at Calais will defeat UK truckers seeking entry to France and will create queues. This in turn I suppose they think might delay the lorries going from Kent to the continent to pick up continental products to come back causing knock on effects on the Kent side. As many of our lorries go out empty this seems unlikely. Most of the full ones are run by large logistics companies or directly by large exporting companies who will I am sure be able to complete the electronic documentation in advance of travel to meet the requirements. That is what they are paid to do, and what they do for non EU trade today.

I was talking to a food importer this week who is looking at taking more product for the  north via Immingham, discovering it is quicker and cheaper than the Dover/Calais route. Some will do this, and more would do so if problems did start to emerge at Calais.

This worst case wrongly assumes markets stop functioning. Logistics is very competitive. There are many options. During our years in the EU the Calais/Dover route has sometimes been troubled by strikes, ferry and train delays or cancellations, crashes and congestion on the  motorway networks either side of the channel,  but we  have never run out of food or   medicines. If   a complex supply chain is disrupted by French strikes you choose a new sea route or  resort to air freight to see you through . Yellowhammer implies Dover is fine, subject only to too many Calais delays caused by UK trucks not complying with standard customs and shipment filings. It is difficult to see why this should happen, as it would be bad logistics business to do that. There would also  be plenty of other options for frustrated customers  if they tried it.

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247 Comments

  1. Tory in Cumbria
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 5:08 am | Permalink

    Were we told in 2016 “there’ll be problems at Dover, but you can go by Immingham”? No. Were we told that food and medicines supplies would be at risk? No. Were we told that our exporters would have to fill in a mass of extra paperwork? No. We were told that there would be no downside to Brexit, only considerable upsides, and that any problems could be sorted out in an afternoon over a cup of coffee. What a con Brexit is.

    • BR
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 10:57 am | Permalink

      You don’t know anything, do you? You didn’t even read the article above which addresses many of your unsupported assertions – the others are also total drivel such as ‘mass of extra paperwork’ (check out how IT systems deal with goods via WTO Harmonisation Codes before you spout?).

      Typical remoaner, jumps in first, spouting drivel, not listening to anything anyone else says.

    • Hope
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 11:00 am | Permalink

      JR, the anti democratic Remain alliance of MPs and speaker has control of parliament and will not allow a democratic election to change this. Therefore I see little option other than people rising up to take over parliament. Quite bizarre. Blackford today talking of water shortages if no deal occurs he has lost the plot but some people will be stupid enough to believe him!

    • libertarian
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 11:25 am | Permalink

      Tory in Cumbria
      You were told about the Easter bunny , You were told about the Tooth fairy you were told about Santa Claus.. The grown ups worked out that these were made up…. The whole Remainer project fear is made up… Youre welcome

      So you know ( maybe Cumbria is too far to stay in touch with reality) there have been delays and problems at Dover all the way through our membership of the EU, they have never resulted in shortages of anything

      The CEO or Nordisk the main supplier of medicines has REPEATEDLY said there is NO PROBLEM, they already have a years supply in the country

      At some point you need to be held accountable for spreading fake news and causing fear and distress

    • BillM
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 11:49 am | Permalink

      So what has the EU ever done for Cumbria? Or anywhere else in the country?
      Do not include those “Funded by the EU” projects because that funding comes as part of OUR Rebate from the £18 Billion contribution we hand them each year.
      What a con is the EU, created by the Germans who conned the French to rule Europe and to benefit Germany.

      • Mitchel
        Posted September 14, 2019 at 3:03 pm | Permalink

        It was effectively created by the Americans to maintain American economic/financial hegemony after WWII.Germany is nowhere near as strong as some of you like to make out.

        • BillM
          Posted September 15, 2019 at 11:06 am | Permalink

          What? The EU was actually created by the USA? LOL
          Germany must be weak because it is only number 4 in the richest Nations of the World league table and Number 2 to China in the world’s top exporting nations. You ‘avin’ a larf?

    • graham1946
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 12:14 pm | Permalink

      Hoist the white flag and cancel Brexit at the first whiff of cordite, even if it is just a blank. What wimps Remoaners are, too scared to leave nurse.
      Problems can be sorted out with good will but it is the EU we are dealing with and they have never shown the UK much goodwill, just insults and demands for ever more money.

    • Woody
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 12:49 pm | Permalink

      We were told our uk world would end with plague and pestilence if we voted to leave. We were certainly told that unemployment would soar, investment would collapse, house prices would tumble. We were told that there was no possibility of a eu army or an eu super state. The only fact there is the eu army and the eussr is to be. We will have no problems with food or medicines , we can produce both readily or import from non eu sources … and there are plenty such and the offer good quality often at lower cost … and on time.

    • Edward2
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 1:02 pm | Permalink

      These are the things Project Fear has been making up since the day after the referendum campaign got underway.
      The report is one produced by May and Hammonds anti leave team.

    • julie williams
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 1:23 pm | Permalink

      Sorry; who told you that?
      and why did you believe it?
      and do you believe the scare stories now?
      So, you believe that Eu producers with a healthy supply chain to the UK are going to say to the EU’ no , your philosophy comes before our profits.
      Get real.

    • rose
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 1:28 pm | Permalink

      Just think if the Conservatives had elected a Brexiteer as their leader in 2016. We would be out by now and prospering.

    • rose
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 2:54 pm | Permalink

      Were we told in 2016 just how vicious and far reaching the remainiac backlash was going to be? Were we told that over three years after the vote the remainiacs would still be trying to stop Brexit? We didn’t even have the word remainiac then. What a con our democracy turned out to be.

    • NickC
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 4:06 pm | Permalink

      TiC, Do you need to be “told” everything? Can’t you work things out for yourself? Or research them? Don’t you realise that other people are under no obligation to spoon feed you? Actually, taken as a whole, the Referendum campaign covered all the main topics of changing our government.

      It is plain as day that many nations around the world with a similar set of legal, commercial and political systems as the UK thrive outside the EU. Are you really saying that the UK is incapable of emulating them? Perhaps with no-hopers in charge like you, maybe you’re right.

    • Hope
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 4:41 pm | Permalink

      Two articles in con woman should be read by everyone who wants UK sovereignty and governance and uphold democracy: Mayhabs surrender of our military to the EU on 18/11/2018 and Blaire demolishing democracy by Tim Bradshaw.

    • Jasper
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 9:41 pm | Permalink

      Companies importing or exporting have to apply for an EORI number – how is that ‘a load of paperwork’???

  2. Mark B
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 5:17 am | Permalink

    Good morning.

    Our kind host mentions in the third paragraph the ability of our coastal patrols to do their job and his confidence in them. Would that be the same people who should be preventing people arriving here illegally via rubber dinghy ?

    He also mentions that he expects our neighbours to obey the rule of law. If so, then they can take back all those that arrived here from their shores and, expel all those currently trying to illegally get into my country.

    Yellowhammer was, and is, a poorly compiled risk assessment, nothing more. Judging by the behaviour of those in parliament it is, if no more evidence were needed, that we are being poorly served.

    • Mark B
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 5:21 am | Permalink

      And with any luck, this should get passed moderation sometime today unlike yesterday’s missive. Which, to be fair, was a little long but compiled with site rules unlike some. Oh ! And one final suggestion. Perhaps our kind host could hold up in moderation all (claimed) Remainer Trolls ? That way he might prevent a lot of people being baited into posting which would lead to a dramatic reduction in posts he has to read.

      Just trying to be helpful 🙂

      • Hope
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 11:11 am | Permalink

        Cameron lied saying he would send letter after referendum, he said this knowing he had forbid any planning or preparations to take place for leaving. Mayhab allowed Hammond and Robbins to fail to prepare to leave without a deal, but then she said 108 the UK would leave on 29/03/2019 under a host of possiblities when answering questions in parliament. She lied. Johnson’s govt should not have to prepare to leave it should have been done before March! If Mayhabs govt did its job as we were told over the last few years. So to decry Johnson now by remainers, like Hammond, in preparing to leave is beyond belief.

      • julie williams
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 1:25 pm | Permalink

        Feel your pain, brother

        • Mark B
          Posted September 14, 2019 at 4:27 am | Permalink

          Thanks 🙂

    • Mark B
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 9:21 am | Permalink

      Oh that’s clever ! Never knew you could permit and post inside a post and not the original. So what is the reason this time ?

      I speak truth to power. I am not a sycophant. It may be uncomfortable me telling things like you do not like others to see but, that does not change the reality on the ground.

      At least, judging by who has also seems to be moderated you are taking my advice 🙂

      • Newmania
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 12:58 pm | Permalink

        Loads of my stuff is not posted – I`m not a trusted trader I think

        • Anonymous
          Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:49 pm | Permalink

          Ditto and I am a trusted trader.

        • NickC
          Posted September 14, 2019 at 8:16 am | Permalink

          Newmania, Perhaps if you developed a rational argument based on known facts you would be? Instead of mere opinion, that is.

      • Posted September 13, 2019 at 4:10 pm | Permalink

        Mark B – while admittedly many of your posts are interesting, there certainly are many of them. I wonder why you think that your opinion is of more value than that of others, and why you can’t see that others are kept in moderation too.
        Our host allows you to express most of your opinions – he doesn’t HAVE to. It’s his blog, after all.

    • julie williams
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 12:53 pm | Permalink

      Yes; there is a major difference between the ability to do something and the will to do something.For some reason, our political representaives (!) prefer to muddle the two.

  3. Lifelogic
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 5:17 am | Permalink

    Indeed a document written by people who have probably never run a business and suffer from bureaucratic group think (or more sinister anti-Brexit motives). As you say logistics is very competitive but people and businesses are very flexible indeed. If for some reason letuce, chicken, pasta and passion fruit are in short supply (or too expensive) we will perhaps switch to brocoli, lamb, polenta and mangos. Price is a wonderful mechanism to match supply and demand.

    I suspect Hammond’s endless fiscal attacks on property (the 15% stamp duty, absurd CGT rates with no indexation, attacks on Non Doms and overseas buyers, and the landlords double interest taxation etc. were designed to damage the property market and to then blame this on Brexit. It is hard to see any other reason for this economic vandalism by this dreadful man.

  4. Mick
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 5:22 am | Permalink

    Yellowhammer is just a back up plan and new my wife who works in the NHS says her organisation and such a plan in place as do most businesses , as for the bias bbc I say that the QT panel was mainly remoaners surprise surprise and there was hardly any mention of the case being rejected by the Irish judges yesterday were as when Scotland upheld the prorogued issue it was headline news all day surprise surprise again, it’s about time the bbc were investigated into its bias against Britain and total support of anything to do with Europe

    • Lifelogic
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 12:53 pm | Permalink

      Indeed also absurdly one sided on climate alarmism and renewables plus lefty magic money tree, big government economics (in the Paul Mason, Corbyn, Mc Donnall mode). Never do they push Mc Donnall on the funding or logic of any of his insane economics, proposed thefts of assets or his nationalisation lunacies.

    • Fedupsoutherner
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 1:48 pm | Permalink

      Hear, hear Mick. They are an utter disgrace. A load of over paid, poorly qualified, left wing numpties.

    • margaret howard
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 4:47 pm | Permalink

      Mick

      “The history of punctuation” according to wiki:

      “In the 7th–8th centuries Irish and Anglo-Saxon scribes added more visual cues to render texts more intelligible. Irish scribes introduced the practice of word separation”

      Could you take note?

      • Edward2
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:20 pm | Permalink

        You are gradually reversing back in history Margaret.
        Three years ago you were arguing in the 18th and 19th centuries now here we are in the 7th and 8th centuries.

    • Jasper
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 10:01 pm | Permalink

      Mick – I have to agree, I thought I had dreamt the NI judges decision as it was reported for about 2 mins and then disappeared from various MSM websites and yet the Scottish result was headline news for days, in fact it is still on various MSM websites, I would laugh if it were not so pathetic and openly biased!!

  5. GilesB
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 5:26 am | Permalink

    On Boris’s bridge.

    Obviously it would be a powerful symbol of commitment to the Union.

    But it would take too long to construct.

    And the proposed routes do not link to the motorway network.

    Much better to build additional ro-ro capacity at Belfast and Liverpool ports and commission a fleet of high speed ferries. Modern ferries capable of up to 50 knots could complete the 200km journey in less than five hours.

    This approach lends itself to steady incremental increases in capacity and speed driven by demand

    • Hope
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 8:12 am | Permalink

      JR, this is a truly appalling document written very unprofessionally without substance to support its findings. It was written with one aim: to scare people.

      Under the Civil Contingency Act every local authority is required by law to write and produce a Risk Register for civil contingency events that are possible to happen with a response to each. For example, flood, explosions, reservoirs breaching, petrol disputes, haulier disputes, outbreak of diseases etc.

      Compare the professionalism of these registers with likelihood of risk, plan to react or mitigate consequences against the crap written by a pro- remain civil service. Appalling. What minister or head of department in the civil service accepted this document? What action is going to be taken against those who wrote this because they should not be in a job. Why have they not used existing Risk Registers in each local authority as a base point or to copy the plans written to deal with possible risks?

      JR, Look at your local authority Risk Register and compare to this appalling document. Any MP who accepts or promotes the finding of Yellowhammer will show themselves to be the dullards they are, complete incompetence springs to mind with one aim: to scare people. Robbins who led all this for Mayhab getting a knighthood, Barewell getting a peerage, disgraceful. Stop it now.

    • Martin in Cardiff
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 9:19 am | Permalink

      Johnson did propose a bridge across the English Channel.

      That was his one good idea, and entirely feasible too, easier than the one that you mention. The Chinese have a sea bridge some thirty miles long.

      However, the Chinese have the enormous advantage, of not being constrained by silly, erroneous doctrine to rely completely on the private sector.

      Consider the recent problems with “service suppliers” to HMG.

      • libertarian
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 11:38 am | Permalink

        MiC

        18 people died during construction , it was massively over budget , and doesn’t even cover its annual maintenance costs from tolls

        another brilliant public sector project

        • Martin in Cardiff
          Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:40 pm | Permalink

          It exists, and it works fine, which is more than can be said for the one over the Channel.

          It’s only to a mediocre island too. Come to think of it…

          • libertarian
            Posted September 14, 2019 at 7:18 am | Permalink

            Martin in Cardiff

            Er there isn’t a bridge over the channel…. theres a very good working tunnel though

            By the way the mediocre island provided nearly all the funding via private sector loans…

          • NickC
            Posted September 14, 2019 at 8:20 am | Permalink

            Martin, So does organ harvesting from executed state prisoners. That sort of not being constrained by the private sector?

          • hefner
            Posted September 15, 2019 at 3:11 pm | Permalink

            Libertarian, oh yeah, “nearly all the funding via private sector loans”: Funny that does not really fit with the 2006 analysis by Terry Gourvish “The political economy of the Channel Tunnel: an international business-government perspective”.
            You’re welcome.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 1:18 pm | Permalink

      Indeed a bridge such as this built by the our government would end up costing at least 5 times the estimated 15 billion. They would spend the £15 billion on consultants and the likes before they even started.

      Still it makes more sense than subsidies for renewables, electric cars, missions to outer space or many of the other absurd things government throw money away on. I think that the Channel Tunnel returns only about 1% on the capital costs. The Scottish/NI Bridge return would (I suspect) be about enough to cover the maintenance/depreciation costs of the bridge so giving no return on Capital at all. I will not be investing.

      • tim
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:30 pm | Permalink

        The money wasted on Brexit delay, it would have paid for the bridge. But of course £15 billion on consultants and the likes before they even started.

  6. Fedupsoutherner
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 5:32 am | Permalink

    As usual the possible worst scenario is shown to the public. Where is the good news regarding lower tariffs on goods from outside the EU and other options? I think the public are getting fed up with all the negativity. If ferries and the tunnel are disrupted badly then surely it will affect businesses in Europe too? I can’t see them wanting that. The BBC are loving it and Laura is getting more excited by the day.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:50 am | Permalink

      Where is any analysis of all the disasters that are likely to follow from remaining in the EU? The main one being the total loss of democracy and suffocation under socialist regulate to death lunacy. Just EU employment laws and the other daft red tape causes massive damage to the UK ‘s ability to compete.

      • Martin in Cardiff
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 2:16 pm | Permalink

        There are no European Union employment laws except for Health and Safety, of which the minimal Working Time Directive is a part.

        They, and Trade Union law are national matters, and it is why the Tory UK’s is highly disadvantageous for workers.

        • graham1946
          Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:17 pm | Permalink

          Then why does our resident EU expert Andy say there are?

        • Edward2
          Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:23 pm | Permalink

          That’s not right Martin.
          The EU has lots of laws directives regulations and rules on employment rights and workplace health and safety.
          Most copied from laws already in place for many years in the UK.

        • tim
          Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:34 pm | Permalink

          Martin- I agree, In France for e.g they ignore H& S considerably.

        • libertarian
          Posted September 14, 2019 at 7:21 am | Permalink

          Marty

          I already demolished that argument once , why are you still posting this nonsense

        • a-tracy
          Posted September 14, 2019 at 8:38 am | Permalink

          There are EU employment laws
          The General Data Protection Regulation (EU) 2016/679 (GDPR) is a regulation in EU law on data protection and privacy for all individual citizens of the European Union (EU) and the European Economic Area (EEA).

          The EU’s competences generally follow principles codified in the Community Charter of the Fundamental Social Rights of Workers 1989, introduced in the “social chapter” of the Treaty of Maastricht.

          The Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (deriving from the Treaty of Lisbon) lists in article 2(1) the European Union’s competence in the field of labour law.

      • margaret howard
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 5:01 pm | Permalink

        Lifelogic

        Well after nearly fifty years of membership all that has happened is that it has taken us from being the ‘sick man of Europe’ into the world’s 5th largest economy with wealth that has, for the first time in our history, spread to the widest possible sections of our society.

        EXIT BREXIT!

        • Edward2
          Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:25 pm | Permalink

          When I said we were the fifth biggest economy you told me we were the sixth shortly to decline to lower ranking.

          We have declined since we joined.
          Did you know that Margaret?

        • Anonymous
          Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:53 pm | Permalink

          But that’s not true.

          My kids are half as rich I as was at their age (despite them being far better educated) – and I’m half as rich as my parents were at mine (despite me being better educated and skilled.)

          We are already off the cliff. What wealth we have is all based on debt.

    • Hope
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 9:01 am | Permalink

      JR, is it tîme to advocate for constituents to have recall ballots to get the requisite number to force a by election for the remainer traitors who refuse democracy? Traitors like a Letwin who think he is above ordinary decent people who accept democracy by ballot where he thinks he can resort to sinister means to thwart general election his demise and democracy.

      Undoubtedly there is little doubt these traitors are acting in concert with a foreign power to undermine our nation. When you look at the stats more people voted leave than the Welsh nationalist party, SNP, Greens, Lib Dumbs, more people voted leave in England (15.1 million) than the inner M25 Westminster bubble. Time for you and others to come up with ideas to lead the public to oust Traitor remainer MPs who will not accept the will of the people.

    • Martin in Cardiff
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 9:27 am | Permalink

      The towering point is that none of it is necessary. The arrangement that the UK has today with its largest external market is far better than anything which could follow leaving the European Union. Ten plump birds in the hand are certainly better than two rather skinny, sickly, tatty ones in the bush.

      So any risk at all, of any problems, just for the sake of leaving the most ambitious peace project ever in human history, the most advanced, enlightened, and civilised association of nations ever seen, is sheer, self-evident madness.

      • Jiminyjim
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 12:45 pm | Permalink

        Sir John, sorry for breaking my silence, but this is precisely the kind of repetitive nonsense, with nothing new in it, that you should be refusing to allow space to.

      • libertarian
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 1:29 pm | Permalink

        MiC

        The fact that you lack the awareness, vision, knowledge and experience to understand the vast potential outside of a protected market, the fact that you think the EU is more civilised than the UK and your quaint belief that the EU has done anything to bring peace just makes you look very silly , are you related to Andy in some way?

        • Martin in Cardiff
          Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:45 pm | Permalink

          Tell that to all the people at British Steel, and at Ford in Bridgend, who are losing their jobs because of this idiocy.

          And the UK has not even left yet.

          • libertarian
            Posted September 14, 2019 at 7:28 am | Permalink

            Martin in Cardiff

            Did you tell that to the people at Ford in Southampton that lost their jobs , did you tell that to the steel workers that lost their jobs. Did you tell that to the 1.3 million workers who were made redundant between 2008 and 2010 ALL WHILE MEMBERS OF THE EU

            There are currently 812,000 unfilled jobs in the UK

            As I said and you so ably proved you lack awareness , knowledge and experience

          • NickC
            Posted September 14, 2019 at 8:25 am | Permalink

            Martin, Nonsense, British Steel is the victim of cheap world steel, and Bridgend is closing because it makes diesel engines which have gone out of fashion because of EU climate alarmism.

        • Anonymous
          Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:57 pm | Permalink

          Nato and an iron curtain kept peace in Europe. The reunification of Germany is ominous. Monnet’s plans were to prevent Germany invading France for a fourth time. Britain was never meant to be part of the EU.

          • margaret howard
            Posted September 13, 2019 at 11:55 pm | Permalink

            Anonymous

            “Nato and an iron curtain kept peace in Europe”

            Really?

            What about all these iron curtain countries that had violent revolutions against their Soviet masters like Hungary, East German, Czechoslovakia, Poland etc?

          • Edward2
            Posted September 14, 2019 at 7:28 am | Permalink

            You think an EU army if it had existed would have involved itself in wars behind the Iron Curtain, against the might of the USSR which threatened nuclear destruction on any attacker?
            For decades only the might of NATO backed by USA with a comparable nuclear threat, kept USSR from invading the rest of Europe.

      • Fedupsoutherner
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 1:53 pm | Permalink

        MIC, What price freedom, sovereignty and the ability to think for ourselves. So, it may be tough initially but we have the chance to make good in the world and get a better future. The EU is going nowhere fast. They are not negotiating in friendly terms, in fact, quite the opposite. They trade with countries outside the EU so why not us? Just because we have decided to leave they thrown their dummies out of the cot. It’s just not acceptable and I will be glad when we can do our own thing and not pay them for the privilege of trading. This is all so sickening to think that if Remain had won they would just carry on as if nothing had happened but we have a song and dance over the fact they lost the vote. Grow up!

    • Posted September 13, 2019 at 4:16 pm | Permalink

      An interesting article from a Jon Woods FCILT, Director of two logistics companies, import/export specialist, appeared in Fact4EU yesterday.

  7. Shirley
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 5:35 am | Permalink

    I doubt many people will fall for this newer version of Project Fear, and many will think the short term disruption worth while if it results in freedom from the EU.

    The pre-referendum Project Fear did sway many people into voting Remain, but has since been thoroughly discredited. The same will happen to every version of Project Fear, unless of course, the Remainers in Parliament manage to deliberately screw up the UK, and they seem determined to do so. We REALLY need a GE!

  8. Lifelogic
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 5:36 am | Permalink

    So Corbyn (following the example set by the socialist dope Gove) wants a £1.6 billion VAT tax raid on private schools (also perhaps scrapping discounted business rates for independent schools).

    If they did this it would clearly raise a net negative sum as so many parent could not afford it and many would switch to state education. Many private schools would have to close, some people would go overseas or perhaps just sent their children to schools overseas with the fees. Incentives to work hard and earn more (and pay more tax) would also be rather less. Why earn more if you cannot spend it how you wish too anyway?

    Parents would then be paying 4 times over – once in tax for other people’s children, then income tax and NI on the money they need to earn for fees, then the fees and then VAT on top. A similar situation to UK health care which results in the dire NHS take it or leave it monopoly.

    In my world almost everyone would go to private schools with vouchers from the state they can top up if they wish too. The schools would compete for these pupils. Freedom and choice is what is needed not more incompetent, dire state monopolies.

    Let us hope Labour never get near to any power despite May/Hammond/Greive/ClarkeX2 Gauke, Rudd and the rest’s best efforts. No olive branch for them please they are not Conservatives, would tarnish the brand even futher and undermine the party after the election again if any were returned.

  9. J Bush
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 5:38 am | Permalink

    Simple answer to those who are convinced there will be a food shortage because of the Dover/Calais link, the suppliers will buy what is needed from different countries, or as you point out, if buying from european countries will use different ports.

    Supermarkets and other Private sector businesses are not going to make themselves bankrupt because remoaners want to continue project fear.

  10. Dominic
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 5:41 am | Permalink

    I see no purpose nor reason in countering Yellowhammer’s assertions. It’s a propaganda document designed to generate fear by equating Brexit with chaos. It would be far more useful to expose the identity of those behind it.

    Indeed, by countering its assertions you corroborate the report and afford it legitimacy. Why would anyone do that?

    • Lifelogic
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:56 am | Permalink

      Indeed I assumed Hammond was largely behind it. Perhaps he can clarify the position?

  11. /ikh
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 5:54 am | Permalink

    Hi Sir John,

    As usual a balanced and very reasonable post. However, I do see a very real threat to traffic running through Calais. The French Fishermen have threatened to blockade Calais if they lose access to British fishing grounds. I think this threat is credible and given the history of the french not policing this kind of protest, it may well create a serious delay on the Dover/Calais route. I am sure that once this happens hauliers will route through other ports but we will see traffic jams on the M20 and a small amount of chaos. But5 I as sure we can get through it.

    /ikh

    • a-tracy
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 10:54 am | Permalink

      Read Denis Cooper Posted September 13, 2019 at 10:20 am | Permalink below

      He makes a very good point.

    • julie williams
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 1:29 pm | Permalink

      Remember; that’s down to Frabce not us.
      The begium border is very close to France and lorries can move a bit further.

  12. James1
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 5:59 am | Permalink

    Yellowhammer is just another project fear straw grasped by Remainers and disrupters. Why on earth should anyone other than the Biased Broadcasting Corporation give their bleatings the slightest heed when all their other dire projections have proved to be so laughably wrong.

  13. Posted September 13, 2019 at 6:02 am | Permalink

    Privileged elite against people (us) who they view as something stuck on their shoe. Look at Mays Honours list to see the appalling cronyism perpetuated although of course she was against it when she started.

    Yellowhammer is just another example of their bogeyman tactics.

    • Posted September 13, 2019 at 5:22 pm | Permalink

      Spot on, Nig. Except that they’re not ”elite”.

    • Doug Powell
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 6:07 pm | Permalink

      Nig l
      Some people have said that May’s honours list rewarded failure – I hold a contrary view – she rewarded those who succeeded in bringing about her desired aim – To screw up Brexit!

  14. Alan jutson
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 6:04 am | Permalink

    Been to France recently and I am reliably informed by a holiday letting agency that holiday let’s of properties to Uk customers in France are 30 percent down on last year.

    The French and UK owners are getting worried and so are the shops and bars that this may continue or get worse after Brexit

    They are starting to realise that without a sensible deal it will hit their economy as well !!!

    Meanwhile prices are very competitive as they try and attract visitors

    • Bob
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 1:33 pm | Permalink

      At one of his last meetings as ECB president, Mario Draghi unveiled a package of measures to ease monetary policy in the euro area.

      The Bank:
      ● Cut one of its key interest rates, the one charged on bank deposits at the ECB, to -0.5% to encourage lending
      ● Left its headline borrowing rate at zero, but pledged to leave them alone indefinitely, until inflation has robustly risen
      ● Agreed to restart its quantitative easing programme in November, with €20bn of bond purchases each month
      ● Made its offer of cheap loans to banks more profitable

      The ECB also slashed its growth and inflation forecasts, as it warned that economic conditions have deteriorated.

    • Anonymous
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 8:00 pm | Permalink

      The fact is that the UK does not go down the economic plug hole in isolation. It is Remainers, after all, who keep telling us we are not an island.

      If Britain implodes the EU gets sucked into the black hole with it.

  15. oldtimer
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 6:08 am | Permalink

    This is not the impression I gained from BBC reports. According to the BBC it sounded as though the end of the world is nigh. I think we need a report on the risks associated with a failure to deliver Brexit and revocation of Article 50. Too little attention has been paid to this by those who inhabit the Westminster bubble. My suggested name for this report is Yellow Belly. Among the risks that deserve to be assessed in a worst case scenario I would include social/civil unrest, capital flight, loss of confidence in UK democracy, significant drop in the value of the £.

    • A.F.Fanculo
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 8:39 am | Permalink

      We should be so lucky that the BBC world’s end is nigh.

  16. eeyore
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 6:08 am | Permalink

    Yes Sir John, this piffling whinge turns out to be the “cliff edge”, the “catastrophe”, the “national suicide” that the Commons is tearing up democracy and the Constitution to avert, at the cost of £1bn a month of our money.

    When MPs return from the naughty step to which they have very prudently been consigned they will have some explaining to do.

    • Turboterrier.
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 8:43 am | Permalink

      eeyore

      It is not even as and when they return. All the political parties Central Offices should they have any sense would be taking steps now to stop this show of complete
      incompetence, ignorance driven by arrogance by the vast majority of its elected members paying no attention to the wishes of the electorate and the future of this country. With what is being displayed now by these politicians begs belief and a GE if and when it comes, does the country need shackling with another parliament mark 2 to what we have had to endure for the last three and a half years

    • ukretired123
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 9:29 am | Permalink

      Since the referendum 2016 that means the EU will have cost us £40billion by 31 October so we don’t need pay £39 billion !

      • Alan jutson
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 1:11 pm | Permalink

        Uk retired
        Exactly my thoughts
        How could we still owe them 39 billion when we have paid every month since March the original agreed date for leaving, the longer we stay in the smaller the debt surely

  17. Dominic`
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 6:11 am | Permalink

    Tim Martin telling it as it is in this morning’s Wetherspoon’s full year trading update. His analysis is scathing and he’s got the courage to name names. He’s also scathing about the Oxbridge influence and the intellectual and social snobbery of the pro-EU bigots

    Martin’s a true man of the people.

  18. Sea Warrior
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 6:17 am | Permalink

    I was at a loss to understand why water might be at risk but on Radio 5’s ‘Wake up to Money’ a few weeks ago one of the presenters casually slipped ‘water’ into the list of things that might be affected by Brexit. Next time I’m in Dover I’ll keep my eyes open for the Cross-Channel Fresh Water Main! We must have one, mustn’t we?
    Every time one of these Remainer loons attempts to conjure up a new scare story they should be challenged to provide an in-depth description of the failure mechanism for the suggested outcome they want us to accept as gospel. Might guess is that in 99% of the cases they won’t be able to.

    • Martin
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 8:48 am | Permalink

      It is not the water per se; rather the chemicals needed to process the water from your local reservoir before it reaches your taps

      • Caterpillar
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 9:56 am | Permalink

        Although;
        key chemicals have been stockpiled
        most of our water does not need to be potable
        Preppers have bought filters and
        … fermentation or mixing in of some strong liquors has some evidence.

    • Andy
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 9:23 am | Permalink

      Because we use chemicals in drinking water.

      And some of these chemicals are imported from the E.U.

      And some of them can not be stockpiled.

      So if your Brexit causes disruption at the border it could affect water supplies.

      More likely it will just put prices up.

      Because we know your Brexit means more bureaucracy.

      And more bureaucracy costs you money.

      So you voted for us all to pay more for water, electricity, gas, foods and medicine.

      Great move.

      • Gareth Warren
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 10:46 am | Permalink

        So leaving the largest bureaucracy on Earth is more bureaucracy?

        The people purchasing chlorine in our private water companies do so without any government guidance.

      • a-tracy
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 10:51 am | Permalink

        Andy, as you seem to know a lot about these chemicals in drinking water where is your source for this information?

        1. What chemicals do we buy from the EU and which Countries in the EU,
        2. Which Companies supply them?
        3. How do they transport them to us and in what quantities, how often?
        4. Is there a company in the UK than manufactures these chemicals, if not why in the last three years wasn’t this organised?
        5. Has an alternative supply chain been sourced, yes or no?

      • Edward2
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 1:07 pm | Permalink

        And many other nations make these chemical.
        And we can buy them from other countries if the French play us up at the Channel ports.
        And they won’t anyway because EU supplying companies want to continue their profitable trade.
        And even then they can be flown in from any nation in Europe or outside.
        And you use too many paragraphs Andy.

      • libertarian
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 1:35 pm | Permalink

        Andy and your cousin Martin

        I thought you trusted and relied on experts ?

        A spokesperson from Ofwat, said: “We’ve been pushing water companies to step up their resilience planning for years now, including putting in place the right resources and arrangements to ensure they can deliver for customers, whatever circumstances they may face. there is “no suggestion” that the flow at these ports should be “adversely affected” by leaving without a deal. It stressed water will continue to be available, safe and of the same quality customers expect when the UK leaves the EU.

        So you can both stop worrying your little heads

        ps its chlorine that they put in water , you know the stuff that we will die of if we get it from Americans smh

      • Woody
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 2:17 pm | Permalink

        I read with considered interest all your blurb until I got to the bit about more bureaucracy then I had to laugh. Even Juncker admits the eu is too complicated a bureaucracy for us plebs to understand. Now if he can understand how it works and we can’t, we must be really really really thick .. I have a degree and professional qualifications by the way.

      • Richard1
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 4:37 pm | Permalink

        Do they have fresh water in Switzerland Norway Canada Brazil new Zealand Australia etc? Or is it only by being in the EU you can get fresh water? I might be wrong but I believe we even had fresh water here before 1973?

      • steve
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 6:51 pm | Permalink

        Andy

        “So you voted for us all to pay more for water….”

        So you’ll have a choice of going thirsty or paying more…..result I’d call it.

      • Anonymous
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 8:02 pm | Permalink

        You’ve taken Margaret Howard’s advice on spacing to extremes, Andy. Though I note she’s not bollocked you about it.

        I suppose it’s okay for a Remainer to be ignorant.

  19. The Prangwizard
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 6:23 am | Permalink

    I’m not as naive about the fisheries. Have we not seen over the past months and years endless attempts by opponents of Brexit to undermine it and to cause as much trouble as possible? I expect the same with the protection of our fish and waters, and there has not been much of an attempt to prepare. Where are the many extra boats which will be needed. The subversive May did nothing to deter those who will undoubtedly break the law.

  20. Posted September 13, 2019 at 6:23 am | Permalink

    Once you fully understand the government accounts and flexible exchange rates yellow hammer is a joke.

    A fraud by economists who think we are

    A) still on the gold standard

    B) still use fixed exchange rates

    It is hilarious that Scottish voters have fallen for project fear twice during two referendums. Especially when us Scots boast about our education system.

    • old salt
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 11:41 am | Permalink

      Shame the Irish were told to vote the right way the second time.
      Backstop and all that!

  21. Yellow Fist
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 6:28 am | Permalink

    Yellow Hammer failed in noting the worst and best case scenario of an increasing shortage of Remainer MPs after the end of October stretching right through to December as petitions up and down the land demand they step down from office failing a General Election and the closure by Local Authorities of their MP Offices in Council buildings.

    • a-tracy
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:52 am | Permalink

      Well on a serious note why haven’t the Brexit Party been effective in organising these petitions in key leave seats, if they really wanted to be seen as a political force they would have been but they aren’t effective and are just a distraction. I actually like Richard Tice a lot but if he is serious he now starts to quietly and calmly giving people none aggressive options.

      • Yellow Fist
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 3:04 pm | Permalink

        It’s hard to tell, I admit, for some, but I usually speak seriously. Tax-payers should not foot the bill for those who despise them and everything about them.

      • Yellow Fist
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 3:07 pm | Permalink

        Oh and I’ve no idea about why the Brexit Party have not done this or that. The breakdown of representative democracy is too big a collapse for some new party to mend. It’s over.Bar the shouting from bent media. Unless Boris wins.

    • Martin in Cardiff
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 6:45 pm | Permalink

      It’s good to see you wasting your time. Those petitions only have any effect if the MP has done something seriously wrong and gone to prison, say, as did Fiona Onasanya.

      Keep it up.

      • NickC
        Posted September 14, 2019 at 8:34 am | Permalink

        Martin, Failing to warn the electorate that one of the two options in the recent national Referendum would be trashed by Parliament and the Speaker is (looking partisan ed). It is far worse than the recent expenses scandal.

  22. agricola
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 6:32 am | Permalink

    I do not share your optimism re naval protection for our fishing grounds. Correct me if I am wrong but I believe we have five border force small ships in commission. Of these one will almost certainly be on refit in port at any given time. Four does not seem adequate to cover our considerable coastline, up to 200 NM from shore in places. The rest of our navy is very over stretched as it is. I would suggest radar equipped twin engine aircraft on standing patrol to direct the border force to suspect trawlers in our waters.

    The rest I broadly agree with. Any prolonged difficulty can be replaced by those who want to sell us tomatoes and oranges. On the plus side of climate change we can produce much more at home, just as we do wine these days.

  23. George Brooks
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 6:49 am | Permalink

    Yellowhammer seems to be based on the premiss that EVERYTHING we buy ALL comes from the EU and ONLY via Dover. What utter rubbish

    EU companies will want to get their trucks in and out of this country as quickly as possible and the reverse is equally true. Current technology will ensure this happens and we will have the added advantage of being able to buy a sell to wherever we want to.

  24. Fred H
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 6:58 am | Permalink

    Another ineffective Project Fear story hyped up as if the world will end, yet actually raising few concerns that will not be resolved in days.

  25. formula57
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 6:59 am | Permalink

    “….turned out to be thin and poorly researched.” – the work of H.M. Treasury forecasters perhaps?

    My motor car has Evil Empire flags on its registration plates. I am eagerly awaiting seeing if it will not start on the first morning post-Brexit or if there has been another Remoaner lie.

    • GilesB
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 8:13 am | Permalink

      You need to get your stickers ready.

      The one’s with the Union flag 🇬🇧 look good

      • GilesB
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 8:15 am | Permalink

        Sorry about the errant apostrophe.

        Those with 🇬🇧 look good.

    • Andy
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 9:26 am | Permalink

      My car is going to keep EU flags on it as well. Permanently.

      We have some Brexiteer neighbours too.

      I am thinking of getting a flag pole with an EU flag on it – just to annoy them.

      • formula57
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 10:50 am | Permalink

        I too am eager to source and E.U. flag.

        I intend to fly at my celebration garden party when, like Christopher Plummer did in “The Sound of Music” film to the flag used there, I can then grab it down and tear it in two.

      • Dave Andrews
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 11:58 am | Permalink

        On the European Flag, who decided it should have 12 stars given there aren’t and never have been exactly 12 member states? How many stars would you have on yours?
        I think you will find permission is required to erect a flag pole, and having got that, further permission is required to fly anything other than the national flag. If your neighbour complains, the local council may consider that sufficient to order you to remove it.

        • steve
          Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:41 pm | Permalink

          Dave Andrews

          “If your neighbour complains, the local council may consider that sufficient to order you to remove it.”

          Shouldn’t give him ideas. Now he’ll go all out to martyr himself with a flag pole. Six ‘o clock news would make interesting viewing.

      • Glenn Vaughan
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 12:09 pm | Permalink

        “I am thinking of getting a flag pole with the EU flag on it – just to annoy them.” Andy

        You don’t need a flag pole or flag to achieve your goal!

      • libertarian
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 1:37 pm | Permalink

        Andy

        get a cape and a beret too, one with big gold stars on..

      • Woody
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 2:18 pm | Permalink

        It will, it is an ugly flag … blue with loads of spiky spots on.

      • Posted September 14, 2019 at 4:50 am | Permalink

        Don’t be silly, Andy. It’s only because most people haven’t noticed this ”emblem” on their number plates. The best statement I’ve seen is a number plate with a large black cross over the silly and meaningless Tesco-style trading-bloc emblem. That said it all. Mine hasn’t got one – if it had I’d obliterate it. Wouldn’t your EU police be after me then?
        (Haven’t you noticed, Andy – the EU isn’t a country?)

    • The Prangwizard
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 10:45 am | Permalink

      I think of myself as English, so my car displays the flag of St George.

      • margaret howard
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

        Prangwizard

        Well, you are in good company as he is the patron saint of many countries including:
        Canada, Croatia, Portugal, Cyprus, Greece, Georgia, Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the Republic of Macedonia.

        Oh, and they reckon the REAL George was a Turk.

        • Fedupsoutherner
          Posted September 14, 2019 at 8:08 am | Permalink

          Margaret, personally I couldn’t give a stuff what nationality he was. Its our flag and I’m proud of it unlike you who can’t say a good word about it. What ate you doing still living here?

        • libertarian
          Posted September 14, 2019 at 10:14 am | Permalink

          Maggie

          Who cares where he was from? Are you some kind of ultranationalist ?

          By the way The Archangel Michael is the patron saint of the German People, Germany itself has no patron saint, let us know where he’s from won’t you Maggs

        • Mitchel
          Posted September 14, 2019 at 3:20 pm | Permalink

          No,Margaret he was a resident of what is now Turkey,then the Roman/Byzantine Empire-the Turks hadn’t actually migrated from central Asia at that time.That is why most of the countries you name are Eastern Orthodox by religion.

  26. Old Albion
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:00 am | Permalink

    Project fear rises again. It’s all the Remainiacs have.

    • Martin in Cardiff
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 2:24 pm | Permalink

      No, they very often have qualifications, which get them interesting, properly-paid jobs with good terms and conditions.

      In turn they then tend to have the other things that go with that, such as happy families and pleasant homes.

      I’d like everyone to have these things, and it’s clear that people’s chances of getting them are far better inside the European Union.

      • Anonymous
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 8:06 pm | Permalink

        Our kids not being able to afford houses in the areas they wanted to work is why I voted Leave !

      • NickC
        Posted September 14, 2019 at 9:03 am | Permalink

        Martin, Does that include the southern half of the EU?

      • libertarian
        Posted September 14, 2019 at 10:25 am | Permalink

        Marty

        Wow delusion running riot in your mind today

        You dont think leavers have those things too?

        Funnily enough I know loads and loads of Remainers , lots of them have degrees ( loads are also divorced). I have had far better jobs than they ever will , I have a lovely home and a family that is very close .

        I’m afraid facts pass you by once again . Living in the UK is the ultimate country on the planet for taking care of its citizens , we have a growing economy, wages , and 812,000 unfilled jobs. We dont have mass unemployment , riots every weekend and a failing currency. You would need to seriously ask yourself why 300,000 people per year try to escape FRANCE to try to enter the UK illegally .

        Top countries to live in 2019

        Switzerland
        Japan
        Canada
        Germany
        United Kingdom
        Australia
        United States
        Norway

        Only ONE of those is in the EU

  27. Julie Williams
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:00 am | Permalink

    Surely there are international laws which prevent foreign vessels from fishing illegally.This country needs to be proactive and stick up for itself if our institutions remember how.Bring navy vessels back to our waters if necessary and stop policing the world.

    • dixie
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 12:20 pm | Permalink

      As a first step just get irrefutable evidence of infringement then test just how law abiding the EU is.

      A fine would not be good enough, the boat must be handed over as well to UK authorities to inhibit further transgressions by the crew.

      This will also test the UK bureaucrats, see how much gold plating they do when it’s against continental and Irish boats instead of British vessels.

      • Sea Warrior
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 9:14 pm | Permalink

        It’s been a while since I commanded a Royal Navy offshore patrol vessel but … serious offences by FOREIGN fishing vessels inside British Fishing Limits would usually result in the vessel being ‘detained’, with the skipper up in front of a magistrate the next day. Large fines PLUS forfeiture of catch PLUS forfeiture of gear would be awarded against the worst of the fishy-crims. My ship arrested two Dutch boats one day – would have got a third but ran out of boarding officers – and each was hit by total penalties of about £70K. It was all pretty slick by MAFF. The Royal Navy has enough ships to handle a No Deal Brexit scenario, albeit that some small warships might need to be re-roled to assist the specialist capability. Although all Royal Navy officers can act as a ‘British Sea Fisheries Officer’ the service might have to get some DEFRA civvies to sea, to help out.

        • dixie
          Posted September 16, 2019 at 7:52 am | Permalink

          Thank you for your service.

          Sounds like we have well practiced procedures in the past so should not be to0 difficult to apply to our new neighbours.

          I would move straight to confiscation of the vessel then perhaps refit and re-purpose these as coastal/fisheries patrol vessels.

  28. Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:04 am | Permalink

    I would only argue with one part of today’s piece :

    We simply don’t have the vessels to defend our fishing grounds. Coastal cutters are in woefully short supply and those we have are already deployed looking for migrants in small boats.

    The North sea is a different proposition entirely and requires larger and more robust vessels of which we have less than a handful. Italy, France and Spain have many times more ships for this purpose than we do.

    A new fleet of at least fifty medium-sized cutters of between 60ft and 150ft is urgently needed. The cost would be a tiny proportion of the contributions we won’t be sending to the EU in the first year after Brexit.

    • Alan jutson
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:56 am | Permalink

      ChrisS
      Agreed

    • GilesB
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 8:24 am | Permalink

      Confiscated trawlers stripped of their fishing gear make good coastal cutters.

      Trawlers with nets out move very very slowly.

      We also have the air patrol and radar capabilities to identify foreign trawlers before they enter our waters.

      Ex-trawlers don’t need a big crew. A handful of sailors and marines each.

      We could have a fleet of fifty or so within a few days if foreign trawlers continue with their present practices

      • Posted September 13, 2019 at 12:09 pm | Permalink

        Giles, we don’t have the maritime reconnaissance capability you refer to :

        Cameron abandoned the Nimrod programme at huge expense and eventually ordered nine Boeing’s P-8A Poseidon aircraft which won’t even arrive until 2020. These nine aircraft will be given the impossible task of securing millions of square miles of open water out to 200Nm. I am reliably informed that at least thirty would be required to do the job properly.

        It will be unlikely that even five of the aircraft will be available at any one time, owing to service and refit requirements.

        We currently don’t have any suitable drones which would be the obvious way forward to bolster our maritime patrol capability.

        • GilesB
          Posted September 13, 2019 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

          We don’t have to stop every incursion.

          Just confiscate enough boats as a deterrent to the rest.

          Sure at the margin some will take the risk.

          Trawlers are expensive to replace: trawlermen will consider the risk of confiscation very seriously.

          Once we have confiscated enough for our fishery protection fleet we can start scuttling further invaders, or use them for target practice. After removing the crews of course!

    • Martin
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 9:02 am | Permalink

      I agree. But we would also need to find the men to man the extra vessels. As it is the Royal Navy struggles to man its existing depleted fleet and will have to find more staff to man its new Type 31e frigates when these are built.
      And where would the cutters be constructed? Maybe Appledore shipyard could be re-opened?

      • libertarian
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 1:40 pm | Permalink

        Martin

        Blimey mate you really haven’t got a clue have you. There are lots of shipyards available to build in the UK.

        I take it that your shortage of people to man them means that you finally accept we have full employment . Although I suppose we could adopt a strategy from our EU friends and have conscription. That would mean all the kids moaning they cant travel to EU any more would also get that solved too

    • Denis Cooper
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 10:20 am | Permalink

      The government should simply announce that for our part we intend to carry on with the present arrangements for a few years, and invite the other parties to do the same until new arrangements can be agreed. That would be a civilised way of proceeding, and would meet with approval from right-thinking people around the world. Having lost control of our fishing grounds for 47 years it will make little odds if we regain legal control but do not assert our newly regained rights for a few years more. The idea that the day after Brexit we must start chasing all foreign fishing vessels out of our waters is a complete nonsense, it’s almost childish.

      • dixie
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 12:23 pm | Permalink

        I do not see why we should allow the government such a relaxed attitude, they should be restoring all aspects of our sovereignty, at pace.

        • Denis Cooper
          Posted September 14, 2019 at 12:43 pm | Permalink

          I would rather leave the EU and licence foreign vessels to just carry on fishing in our waters as now for a few years more, than not leave the EU because of largely fabricated problems like this one.

      • NickC
        Posted September 14, 2019 at 9:10 am | Permalink

        Denis Cooper, The sensible way to treat our fishing grounds initially is to issue licences to existing foreign users. Then the UK can gradually reduce the available licences and quotas for foreign vessels, increase licence costs, and more strictly govern how the catches are made.

    • dixie
      Posted September 16, 2019 at 7:53 am | Permalink

      Confiscate infringing vessels and refit appropriate ones for patrol duty.

  29. BJC
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:12 am | Permalink

    A document such as Yellowhammer is generally produced to provide the basis for a risk assessment. As a stand-alone document it contains just two of the modules required for this purpose and is of little value without an accompanying plan and regularly updated progress. I understand Mr Gove is due to provide this additional information shortly, which will be far more enlightening and interesting.

    • Mark Leigh
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 9:02 am | Permalink

      Agreed. As a recently retired expert in the risk assessment business, the excerpts I saw screen-grabbed on TV last night appeared to be standard risk assessment spreadsheets.

      In a nutshell – what’s the worst case outcome (hazard) for any specific issue. What are the consequences and likelihood of each (Consequence x likelihood = risk). Typicall these are ranked in a table using a matrix (we used 5×5)

      Is the residual risk acceptable? If no, what mitigating actions do we need to take.?

      As usual the uninformed journalist focus on the worst case outcome part of the spreadsheet.

      The key questions they should be asking are – what are the mitigation plans, and are they on track?

      • Andy
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 9:27 am | Permalink

        Journalists have repeatedly asked those questions.

        You need to ask Mr Redwood why his government refuses to answer.

        • Yellow Fist
          Posted September 13, 2019 at 3:10 pm | Permalink

          Count yourself lucky there is a kind of free-press media to continue humouring questions of poor and futile quality. Make the most of it while it lasts.

      • Denis Cooper
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 10:06 am | Permalink

        Which track? The three year “I will keep saying in public that no deal would be better than a bad deal, while behind the scenes I will do next to nothing to prepare for the possibility of no deal” track followed by Theresa May, or the “For God’s sake we’ve got three months to sort out all the things that she did not do over three years” track since she left office? Did you notice that her fellow Remainer Amber Rudd resigned because under Boris Johnson the government had departed from Theresa May’s original track?

      • Mark B
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 5:13 pm | Permalink

        Great post and thank you.

  30. Martin in Cardiff
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:18 am | Permalink

    The most significant items have still not been published, but either redacted or otherwise withheld.

    To predict accurately what would happen is impossible anyway, so it is unfair to blame the researchers.

    For instance, if French fishermen were to end up in a dispute with UK ones over fishing areas, then a repeat of what caused Operation Stack, but on a far larger scale could easily ensue. You will remember that that was caused by just a few boats over a limited area of water. That was hardly trivial, and its effects were serious even though it only lasted for a few days.

    No, the real scaremongering is coming from the Leave extremists, who warn of a breakdown of public order and widespread violence, if their groundless and entirely unrealistic demands are not met.

    • a-tracy
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:46 am | Permalink

      “if French fishermen were to end up in a dispute with UK ones over fishing areas,” well you know Martin we do have a Navy, perhaps just perhaps they can start to police our own seas for a time.

      As for scaremongering, the main body of Leavers have all behaved impeccably whilst Remainers insult, denigrate and constantly prod them, as you have decided to do on a daily basis on this blog until you’re asked about Remain.

      I issue no threats, however, I feel it is right to say John Bercow does not run this country and people are getting to the end of their patience now.

      • Martin in Cardiff
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 2:32 pm | Permalink

        Parliament is supreme under the UK Constitution, nothing else, not government, and certainly not the twenty-six percent of the people who happened to win an advisory referendum.

        The Speaker administers the running of that supreme Parliament, on a consultative basis with its members.

        That is the control – which the UK never lost anyway – but which the Leave campaigns claimed that they were taking back.

        You don’t seem to like it, though.

        • Edward2
          Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:29 pm | Permalink

          If now you remain fans claim only 26% voted leave then far less than 26% voted remain.

        • NickC
          Posted September 14, 2019 at 9:16 am | Permalink

          Martin, Under the UK’s Constitution, the people are supreme, since we have a democracy (demos = people; kratos = power). You may have missed the struggle for universal suffrage?

      • Andy
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 3:51 pm | Permalink

        You solution to a row with French fishermen would be to use the navy? Tell me, if you don’t get your way on other matters will you propose nuking Brussels too – or is that a little bit too extreme even for you?

        • tim
          Posted September 13, 2019 at 8:01 pm | Permalink

          not a bad idea though, the same bias as project fear.

        • a-tracy
          Posted September 13, 2019 at 9:11 pm | Permalink

          I’m talking about defence Andy.
          As per usual it is you, a remainer, that is threatening attacks.
          Bizarre reasoning.

        • NickC
          Posted September 14, 2019 at 9:20 am | Permalink

          Andy, You don’t want policing to occur? Our fishing grounds would be policed by fishery patrol vessels as they used to be. In a serious dispute the patrols would be backed up by the Navy to stop theft and smuggling.

      • margaret howard
        Posted September 14, 2019 at 11:23 am | Permalink

        a-tracy

        “if French fishermen were to end up in a dispute with UK ones over fishing areas,” well you know Martin we do have a Navy, perhaps just perhaps they can start to police our own seas for a time.”

        I should like to remind you of the last time we took on a nation about our fishing rights. Here is the wiki entry about it:

        “The Cod Wars were a series of confrontations between the United Kingdom and Iceland on fishing rights in the North Atlantic. Each of the disputes ended with an Icelandic victory.

        The Third Cod War concluded in 1976, with a highly favourable agreement for Iceland; the United Kingdom conceded to a 200-nautical-mile Icelandic exclusive fishery zone after threats that Iceland would withdraw from NATO,
        As a result, British fishing communities lost access to rich areas and were devastated, with thousands of jobs lost. Since 1982, a 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone has been the United Nations standard.”

        Not wise to aim for a repeat!

        • Edward2
          Posted September 14, 2019 at 3:18 pm | Permalink

          We could have won easily but we had a weak government and an even weaker PM.

        • a-tracy
          Posted September 15, 2019 at 10:18 am | Permalink

          All that and Iceland isn’t in the EU and we were, some protection that offered us. I thought you said since we the EU existed they stopped wars?

    • libertarian
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 8:13 am | Permalink

      Martin in Cardiff

      Oh dear oh dear oh dear you really are grasping at straws

      Those of us who KNOW FROM EXPERIENCE what its like when the Dover /Calais route is closed have experienced FAR WORSE than this over the last 30 years in the EU

      What really makes me laugh is the BBC /media using photos of lorries parked on the M20 as a fear about Brexit and the photos they are using were taken of lorries parked on the M20 when we were STILL IN the EU

      Your ignorance of Operation Stack is wonderful to behold

      Operation Stack was first introduced in February 1988, because of a strike called by the National Union of Seamen in Folkestone Docks It was closed for 14 ( FOURTEEN ) weeks .

      Since then there have been 211 closures lasting longer than 2.5 days , in 2015 the closure lasted 32 days

      At no time was there a shortage of food, medicines or disruption to JIT supply Chains

      So YES we can blame the researchers because theres 30 years of historical evidence to go on for a start

      By the way just 6% of import/exports from the UK go through the Dover/Calais gateway and Dover is only the 10th largest port in the UK

      Face it the remain argument is truly pathetic

    • Dominic`
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 8:40 am | Permalink

      Leave voters voted in good faith. It is bigots like you who are determined to overturn the result of a democratic exercise you yourself no doubt participated in. Your instincts are disturbing. Your appear to resent democracy. I find that sinister and very concerning for the health of British democracy.

      • Martin in Cardiff
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 2:41 pm | Permalink

        No, the UK should Leave the European Union. It is in the interests of four hundred and fifty million people – perhaps the whole world – that it does so as soon as possible.

        All I want is for Parliament to be allowed to do its job properly, and to ensure that this happens on the least damaging terms reasonably possible.

        The Tory UK will be diminished by this, but its capacity to cause problems beyond its shores will also be reduced, and that will be a very good thing.

        • Robert mcdonald
          Posted September 13, 2019 at 9:23 pm | Permalink

          Well if you want parliament to do its job properly then you must be really disappointed. They have blocked the only sensible approach to a negotiation by blocking the option of walking away if the offer isn’t suitable .. and to compound their bigotry they have refused to go to the public in a general election. The opposition is grossly diminished by their game playing all highlighted in the arrogant ignorant and self gratifying actions of the supposed to be unbiased speaker .. a disgusting person.

      • Andy
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 3:53 pm | Permalink

        You did vote in good faith. But you were misled by the people who led the campaign you voted for.

        They promised you unicorns and you are rightly angry that you can not have those unicorns.

        The problem is that you are directing your anger at people who told you all along that unicorns do not exist. Perhaps, instead, you should get angry with the people who misled you?

        • steve
          Posted September 13, 2019 at 8:05 pm | Permalink

          Nah, we just loathe traitors.

        • NickC
          Posted September 14, 2019 at 9:23 am | Permalink

          Andy, We were certainly misled by Remains who promised to honour the Leave vote!

        • libertarian
          Posted September 14, 2019 at 10:31 am | Permalink

          Andy

          We woz robbed , he was NEVER offside , it was a nailed on penalty and he didn’t give it, the ref was bent it was fergie time, there was still 5 mins to play , he shudda got a red . The refrain of LOSERS since time immemorial

  31. Everhopeful
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:29 am | Permalink

    Now let’s have the “Erebus Report” on what will happen if Brexit is totally denied.
    “Yellowhammer” is just part of the utter chaotic rubbish we are being subjected to.
    If “ The Base Scenario” were as bad as Remoaners would like it to be then surely that means we are too reliant on trade for our needs.
    And need to exit ASAP!

    • Know-Dice
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:58 am | Permalink

      Very true Everhopeful,

      For too long the EU has helped companies move out of the UK by giving them advantageous loans to do this. Think Transit from Southampton, JLR to Romania and I’m sure that there are many others.

      It’s time to repatriate manufacturing and seasonal produce growing back to the UK.

  32. Richard1
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:39 am | Permalink

    It is really very difficult to see why there should be any of the sort of problems continuity Remain types have been loudly warning of. I don’t think there will be tariffs either. In fact there won’t be any problems at all unless our friends and partners decide to make them, in order to teach us a lesson, which I think very unlikely. Even if this happens I don’t see it being sustained for more than a few months, it’s just not worth the trouble with everything else that’s going on in the world economy and political situation.

    The main risk I see is some sort of a sterling crisis – which might be driven as much by fears of a Labour govt as more details emerge of the mad leftist ideas they have. At the moment sterling weakness has a self-correcting mechanism as we saw eg yesterday with the bid for the London stock exchange. If sterling weakened again there would be a flood of such potential deals. But not if investors thought there was a realistic possibility of Corbyn / McDonnell. Then that correcting mechanism would be taken away and there would be a rush for the exits.

  33. a-tracy
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:41 am | Permalink

    The NHS England is a massive purchaser of drugs. People taking life-saving drugs are being threatened their medicine won’t be available. Necessity is the mother of invention, British pharmaceutical companies should have been producing essential drugs – we should not be reliant on ferry crossings! After three years, as a chief buyer I would have drug lines available to purchase from all over the world for the drugs we are told we will have problems purchasing from Europe. I would have the supply chain (logistics) sorted out and I would not threaten vulnerable people some with mental health problems causing extra anxiety and stress. It is disgusting what yellowhammer promoters are doing and they should be ashamed. They know we can get these drugs are the European drug companies really going to bankrupt themselves to teach us a lesson? Seriously is that what we are being threatened with, we can’t organise private plane charter services if necessary – truly?

  34. Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:47 am | Permalink

    Parliament must deliver Brexit as announced on 31st October 2019.
    A promise is a promise.
    We voted for it.

  35. Newmania
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 8:00 am | Permalink

    A Bridge … not then just more borrowing to finance any old boondoggle or anything .I`d like to see some work on whether this can really be called investment or is just yet more spending

    • formula57
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:20 pm | Permalink

      I would prefer to fund a bridge between two integral parts (pro tem) of the United Kingdom than bridges to nowhere in Greece, often (allegedly) with mayoral villas as part of the deal, and other parts of the Evil Empire.

  36. Lifelogic
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 8:04 am | Permalink

    Rory Stewart on LBC just now, spouting his usual complete and utter drivel. He and the other 21 must never be allowed back into the party – he is a huge liability.

    He even came out with the old chestnut of x% of our exports and y% of their exports. It is the total trade that matters (not the % you plonker). They export more to us than we do to them!. The relative percentages are irrelevant.

    • Martin in Cardiff
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 4:24 pm | Permalink

      If the UK bought a bit more from The Whole World than it sold to it, then do you think that it would enable the UK to bully The Whole World?

      No? So why do you think that it will enable it to bully the European Union, of twenty-seven countries and umpteen trillion GDP? And whose ports, roads, airspace, fisheries, and markets it needs for its survival?

      Have you ever looked at an atlas?

      • Edward2
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:31 pm | Permalink

        Lifelogic never mentioned bullying
        As usual you just make things up.

      • Anonymous
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 8:16 pm | Permalink

        It’s not bullying. It’s about negotiating a better deal than May did.

      • steve
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 8:17 pm | Permalink

        MiC

        “Have you ever looked at an atlas?”

        Have you ever read ‘The Island Race’ by W. S. Churchill ? If you had you’d know what makes us who we are.

        “European Union, of twenty-seven countries and umpteen trillion GDP?”

        …….irrelevant, since without Gt Britain the EU is destined to fragment and collapse.

        • margaret howard
          Posted September 14, 2019 at 11:44 am | Permalink

          steve

          “…….irrelevant, since without Gt Britain the EU is destined to fragment and collapse”

          So why did WE beg to join this unimportant trading bloc? Because our own efforts to establish our own with EFTA and the commonwealth failed compared with the EU and most EFTA countries left to join it.

          As for your Churchill remark, are you so unsure of yourself that you need somebody else to tell you who you are?

          No doubt he also believed that the whole world would collapse after the collapse of the British empire which he so loved.

          Well, the world didn’t and its former vassals are mostly thriving after regaining their independence from a forcible annexation.

          Hope you achieve the same after Brexit!

      • Robert mcdonald
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 9:25 pm | Permalink

        Now that is a first, this apparently small, insignificant island is now accused of being a bully. It’s a new approach by remoaners, but equally farcical.

    • margaret howard
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 4:27 pm | Permalink

      Lifelogic

      “They export more to us than we do to them!”

      Could that be because there are 27 of them? Added to the fact that Mrs Thatcher destroyed our manufacturing industry in favour of finances and services?

      • Edward2
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:32 pm | Permalink

        Customers ruined our manufacturing industry.
        They went off and purchased goods made from non UK nations.

        • steve
          Posted September 13, 2019 at 8:25 pm | Permalink

          Edward 2

          Also companies that closed up and went overseas, where labour is piss cheap and there’s no H & S.

          To be honest Edward there’s a myriad of reasons…….all of which put profit before national interest.

          Someone mentioned Jaguar going to Romania, Glad I bought mine when I did.

          • Edward2
            Posted September 14, 2019 at 7:38 am | Permalink

            I agree there are many reasons but blaming Lady Thatcher alone as the left do is just silly.
            If companies fail to make a profit they close.
            If companies fail to meet the requirements of their customers then those customers go off and buy from other companies.

          • margaret howard
            Posted September 14, 2019 at 11:48 am | Permalink

            steve

            “Also companies that closed up and went overseas, where labour is piss cheap and there’s no H & S.”

            All EU countries worked under the same conditions. So why have they thrived and created the biggest wealthiest trading bloc in the world?

          • Edward2
            Posted September 14, 2019 at 3:24 pm | Permalink

            Well that’s not true Margaret.
            Industry in Europe has declined just like in the UK over the decades faced with competition from emerging nations.
            Would you like to keep these developing nations poor and stop their ambitions to enrich themselves?
            All EU nations do not work under the same conditions.
            Just look at the minimum wage rates and the average house prices amongst the 28 members.

      • libertarian
        Posted September 14, 2019 at 10:55 am | Permalink

        MH & everyone else

        STOP falling for this bull shit about manufacturing

        What ACTUALLY happened is that TECHNOLOGY replaced old “smoke stack” type industries, and some heavily labour dependent industries moved to low cost production areas whilst the UK retooled using advanced technology, software and robotics ( the services based part of finance and services) Average wage in UK manufacturing sector is now £32500 average wage in UK manufacturing in 1970 £2900

        Here’s the opening paragraph from the UK Manufacturing Association report into the state of British manufacturing

        UK is currently the world’s eighth largest manufacturing nation. If current growth trends continue, the UK will break into the top five by 2021. In the UK, manufacturing makes up 11% of GVA, 44% of total UK exports, 70% of business R&D, and directly employs 2.6 million people.

        Germany sells £22 billion more to us than we sell them
        Spain sells £15 bn more to us
        Belgium sells £8bn more
        Holland sell £7 billion more

        In fact the only ones of the 27 who BUY more from us are

        Ireland £14 bn
        Sweden £4bn
        Denmark £1 bn

        We lead the world in aerospace , digital , fin tech and financial services

        This is the problem with Remainers and lefties they have no understanding of how the world evolves and moves on. Innovation and creative breakthroughs cause changes in markets, jobs and employment patterns Old skills and experiences get replaced with new. If you try to stop that as the EU does with its protected market you kill innovation. Which is why currently most technology is owned and developed by USA & South Korea and NOT EU countries

  37. Leaver
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 8:09 am | Permalink

    Also, it appears the government is thankfully going to reach some form of agreement, making the document redundant anyway.

    And a good thing too. This needs to be dealt with professionally around a table, rather than the current farce.

    It really is like watching a bunch of little children. Bercow and parliament on one side, and the ERG on the other, with both sides shouting ‘no, no, no’ and ‘liar’ at each other. I expected better than this.

  38. Gareth Warren
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 8:11 am | Permalink

    I do not believe most government departments yet alone Yellowhammer, Sir Redwood’s book “We Don’t believe you” explains why, for me I realise the report is written by a little group of people in Whitehall who know no more than me about the issues involved.

    One bet that looks good after brexit will be we will see more goods imported from the north than Dover, in time even healing the north/south divide. Bad news for house prices in the SE, but good news for the country.

    I want to see the government keenly take control of fishing grounds, the first act should be to rest large areas so that they can recover from decades of over fishing. Here we likely will need several extra fishery protection vessels, a total ban on fishing in many areas will no doubt help them by making action clear with severe penalties for transgression.

  39. Christine
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 8:14 am | Permalink

    The biggest risk I see is the EU fishermen blockading the port of Calais. We know from experience how aggrieved Europeans can behave, particularly the French. You assume the EU will play fair. I doubt this. If there is a shortage of some types of food, we will survive. It might do the country good to eat less and reduce the amount of food we throw away. If the war generation managed five years of blockades, I’m sure we can suffer the slight inconvenience of not having fresh flowers etc. The Government just has to have in place contingencies and they need to set priorities like medicines. Nothing in Yellowhammer should stop us leaving the EU. Any pain caused by the EU will justify the reason for leaving.

    • steve
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 8:45 pm | Permalink

      Christine

      My sentiments exactly.

      In fact I recently stopped buying EU produce, and can honestly say I’m surviving quite well just by buying British food.

      I’m almost at the point of a seasonal diet, i.e as things used to be.

      But to be fair I’m a single bloke and don’t have to cook for a family. That said….one of the best kitchen investments I made was to buy a slow cooker, I can come home from work and have a tasty meal which easily compares to what you’d pay a high price for in a first class pub restaurant.

      Also made my first jam a fortnight ago. Plums entirely free. I have about a gallon of the stuff, will easily last through to next summer.

      I think more people should go back to the old ways of home economics, it’s cheaper and better.

  40. Posted September 13, 2019 at 8:18 am | Permalink

    Regarding Immingham. I suspect many haulage companies have already started to use this route judging by, what I perceive to be, the increased volume of HGV traffic on the M180. It’s just a shame the M180 becomes the A180 before it reaches the port. It’s not in the south east though, so clearly doesn’t merit any investment.

  41. Beecee
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 8:19 am | Permalink

    The Calais chief has said on numerous occasions that Calais is ready and there will be no delays at his port.

    If nothing else the French are pragmatists.

  42. Bernard Gallivan
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 8:31 am | Permalink

    I don’t get up at 5 am each day. Is this why my comments are always awaiting moderation and never get passed? I note JR’s comment that far too many contributors make repeated trivial contributions and he wants them to moderate themselves. Whoever does the moderation should be more on the ball if this “diary” is not to become a silly chat line.

    • sm
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 10:16 am | Permalink

      Bernard, as Sir John has pointed out on several occasions, he alone does the moderation, and understandably has more urgent duties to attend to. None of us has a god-given right to see our comments published on this site.

    • Mark B
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 5:25 pm | Permalink

      Bernard

      I agree. I suggest that our kind host hold EVERYONE’S posts in moderation until 5pm BST to help him and, as you rightly pointed out, to stop this site turning into a silly chat line.

      I get up at 4am BTW.

  43. Ian!
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 8:45 am | Permalink

    YellowHammer/Project Fear in their projections logically are suggesting it will be the ‘UK Government’ that stops imports! Why would they do that? As no one else foresees any one else being able or wanting to ‘stop our imports’ So it would be the UK Government stopping fresh food coming in. It would only be the UK Government stopping medicines coming in. A little bit bizarre.

    IDS after reading the Yellow Hammer report asked had the writers of the report spoken to anyone in Calais for their reaction, the answer was no. So how would they know? So he did, all officials involved on that side of the channel have said it would not be in their own interest to stop any flow.

    So it is just a scare tactic that has no basis, no logic and wont happen. But for the 5% that flip flop it would be enough to persuade them and that the point. TM made sure honesty went out the window when she became PM and now it lives on in everyone that wants to make a noise.

  44. Mark J
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 9:03 am | Permalink

    Why is it so hard for some in the Conservative party to understand that a deal with the Brexit party IS required for the next election.

    It doesn’t matter that some in your party don’t like Nigel Farage, his one term support is needed to ensure Brexit DOES happen.

    Are the Conservatives still that arrogant to believe they are going to win large swaths of Labour heartlands on Brexit alone? It simply isn’t going to happen.

    The Brexit party should stand aside where the Conservatives are strongest and the Conservatives where they are at their weakest, or have no hope of winning.

    Without him, the Tories will not win on their own. We will land up with either yet another hung Parliament, or a rainbow remain coalition that will stop Brexit.

    The people blocking this “deal” in the Conservatives need to finally wake up and smell reality. They need to listen to the majority of Conservative (and leave) supporters that want this happen. They need to grasp that if the Conservatives don’t do a deal with the Brexit Party in order to obtain Brexit, the Conservatives will be all but finished.

    • steve
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 9:02 pm | Permalink

      Mark J

      “Are the Conservatives still that arrogant to believe they are going to win large swaths of Labour heartlands on Brexit alone? It simply isn’t going to happen.”

      I guess the conservatives see an election as a choice for voters between Boris and Corbyn. In which case Labour is finished, largely thanks to Labour’s despicable tactics in Parliament just recently.

      I don’t see the conservatives doing as well as they’d hope in a general election, but I do see labour feeling the wrath of the electorate. Having their man in the Speaker’s chair will certainly backfire as well.

      Though I tend to agree Boris should scare the crap out of Labour and the rest of the remain traitors by pact with Mr Farage.

  45. Oggy
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 9:19 am | Permalink

    Two things, firstly I couldn’t care less about the BBC’s dire remoaner offerings on Yellowhammer, it was probably written by a certain Philip Hammond and his mates anyway, so isn’t in anyway credible. Although I, as others do worry about encroachment of foreign fishing vessels.

    Secondly, my vote to leave the Evil Empire was nothing to do with trade, so Yellowhammer is a complete irrelevance. My and many leavers votes was to leave the EU’s political construct, why don’t the EU’s useful idiots understand this. Telling us there maybe a queue of lorries at Calais is completely and utterly pointless.

    • Andy
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 9:31 am | Permalink

      And yet some Brexiteers on here tell us their vote was all about trade. So here we have, again, proof that you did not all vote for the same thing.

      The uncomfortable truth is that many – if not most – Leave voters backed Brexit because of immigration. They do not like foreigners.

      This is the particularly amusing thing about Brexit. It will not fix your grievances. You’ll just spend the rest of your lives getting angrier. It’ll be fun to watch.

      • Edward2
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 1:11 pm | Permalink

        Did all remainers vote for the same thing?
        Not many are as pro United States of Europe as you are Andy.

        Sad to see you slur all leave voters again.
        Playing the race card shows how weak your arguments are.

      • Woody
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 2:20 pm | Permalink

        Yet it is the eu that has established barriers to trade with non eu foreigners, yet we seem to do so quite happily … and many seem to want to come here.

      • Anonymous
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 8:21 pm | Permalink

        “They do not like foreigners.”

        That slur cannot be allowed to stand. It is designed to disqualify the whole Leave vote.

        When did you last see a report of a little rubber boat heading from the ‘racist’ UK to tolerant France, Andy ?

      • libertarian
        Posted September 14, 2019 at 11:00 am | Permalink

        Andy

        Brexiteers want to engage the world and especially the Commonwealth

        Remainers want to remain in a Union with white Europeans

        But leavers are the foreigner haters… OK got it Andy

        Remainers want to stay in the single market so that they can continue to employ Eastern Europeans at (low rates ed) as nannies, gardeners, au pairs , car washers , cooks and personal servants . See easy isn’t it Andy

    • Martin in Cardiff
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 10:16 am | Permalink

      Telling you anything is apparently utterly pointless, as your long-suffering teachers probably discovered.

  46. Denis Cooper
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 9:50 am | Permalink

    I’m afraid, JR, that as a loyal Tory you are once again avoiding the main point: for three years the Tory Remainer Prime Minister Theresa May kept saying that “no deal would be better than a bad deal” while doing sweet FA to prepare for no deal, and now she is keeping stum and letting the next Tory Prime Minister Boris Johnson carry the can for her, while hoping that his incompetence will be enough to finish off Brexit altogether.

    • Chris
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 1:26 pm | Permalink

      I fear that it is likely to be not only incompetence by Boris, but also dishonesty that will destroy Brexit. He seems to be betraying the Leave vote, and if that leads to a tweaked WA approval then both he and the Tories are finished.

  47. nhsgp
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 10:03 am | Permalink

    Worst case?

    Where’s the best case document?

  48. Posted September 13, 2019 at 10:08 am | Permalink

    So, in November last year, Mrs May and Boris Johnson, as Foreign Secretary, agreed with the EU to transfer control of our armed forces to the European Union. Johnson has never mentioned this agreement which is now in the Withdrawal Agreement plus Political Declaration, which he is proposing to pass. It’s in Conservative Woman.

    • Fedupsoutherner
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 2:01 pm | Permalink

      Iago, That’s my vote gone then.

    • Martin in Cardiff
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 6:56 pm | Permalink

      No, they did not.

      Read the detail of what is actually proposed.

      I’m generally a Labour voter too, so I don’t owe those any favours.

      • Anonymous
        Posted September 13, 2019 at 8:26 pm | Permalink

        Well done you, Martin. You do realise that it was Nu Labour that caused Brexit ?

        There had to be consequences for throwing open the borders and rubbing an enfranchised population’s nose in it. I’m proud that the backlash was via the ballot box and not done Continental style.

  49. Fred H
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 10:32 am | Permalink

    Off topic…
    BBC reporting.
    ‘The French capital is seeing huge jams and massive crowds on the few metro lines running as transport workers strike against planned pension reform. Ten of Paris’s 16 lines were shut and service on the others was disrupted. Many workers cycled, walked or stayed at home, while free rides were on offer on transport operator RATP’s e-moped and Uber’s e-bike and scooter networks. The strike, the biggest since 2007, is the first big act against President Macron’s plan for a universal pension. It would replace dozens of different pension schemes for different professions.’
    And we think we have problems…

  50. Kenneth
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 10:56 am | Permalink

    I agree entirely with JR’s post.

    I know that the fmcg sector has often had to tackle pinch points because of French strikes or incidents in the tunnel and has also had to deal with currency fluctuations.

    When these things happen, shop customers hardly notice the odd product substitution or out-of-stock that may result.

    Is this all they an come up with?

    The BBC is behaving shamefully as always, of course.

  51. BillM
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 11:29 am | Permalink

    Remainers always conveniently and shamefully forget that this is Britain and we are British and our Nation is full of British ingenuity. Remainers are never patriotic they prefer to be subservient to a foreign “government”.
    Why do they think that this wonderful country, full of wonderful people with a wealth of knowledge, experience and entrepreneurialism , cannot manage on its own? Why do they think we can only cope in the World when we are ruled by the unelected Brussels cabal?
    Britain, the fifth richest Nation on the planet, a permanent member of the UN Security Council with the largest Military Power in Europe and the biggest customer of the EU? What is the matter with these metathesiophobics? Has the EU really taken away their ability think patriotically and rationally?
    LOL. The prophesies of Remainer disinformation project, Yellowhammer, are nothing more than the gloomy expectations of a manic depressive. Utter BS.
    Get us out of the EU – they are no longer fit for purpose.

  52. bookend
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 12:00 pm | Permalink

    Is that it? I don’t think so, not by a long mile- but with only forty eight days to go we’ll know soon enough. Yesterday we had the announcement about building five new naval vessels but am afraid naval vessels are not the answer, we need hundreds of new merchant ships and thousands of trained up seamen ready for our new trade routes with countries far away- just like we had back in the 1960′ 70’s and 80’s. We forget at our peril we are an island nation of 65 million and if we meet wartime conditions again without sufficient British flag merchant ships we are sunk. Naval ships are ok but cannot carry containers or bulk products.

  53. sage
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 12:22 pm | Permalink

    Listen up Tories,

    You had a good run and nearly ruined us in a Pyrrhic victory referendum. The keyword is nearly, so before you have anymore such “victories”, please turn your attention to things which make the UK better.
    Let’s all put down the chalk and rub the scoreboard. This has been a learning moment for everyone. This is not a concession post – it’s a “let’s all grow up” post.

  54. APL
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 12:52 pm | Permalink

    JR: “The Yellowhammer document when released turned out to be thin and poorly researched.”

    Probably prepared by Christopher Steel.

  55. Chris
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 1:23 pm | Permalink

    ….and where was the Gove rebuttal unit in all of this?

  56. BR
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 1:35 pm | Permalink

    Northern Ireland case… APPLICANT JR23 is a “she” !!!

    Reading the full judgement, this came to light:

    [47] As regards the Applicant JR 23, there are five solicitor’s affidavits containing
    quotations from various sources and exhibiting some 900 pages of documents. There
    is also one affidavit sworn by this Applicant which, in summary, contains averments
    (a) requesting the protection of anonymity, (b) establishing her standing to bring these
    proceedings, (c) deposing to certain aspects of the Brexit history and (d) expressing
    certain subjective opinions and beliefs.

    NOTE: (b) “establishing HER standing to bring these proceedings”.

    So the person needing anonymity is FEMALE. Guesses?

    Miller wouldn’t be anon. Nor would any Labour or Lb Dem. So… May??? Rudd?

  57. Posted September 13, 2019 at 1:37 pm | Permalink

    So British officials have said they will accept all the provisions of the May deal except the back stop. Pay the money, leave in to all the other stuff.

    As we all knew, we will be sold out. Get ready for the spin machine.

  58. Jack Leaver
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 3:13 pm | Permalink

    Sir John,

    Have you read Lord Justice McCloskey ruling yesterday in which he refers to Operation Yellowhammer under paragraphs 93 – 96? It also contains some very interesting rulings regarding Prerogative powers to negotiate with the EU and particularly on Northern Island, see paragraph 83 (ii) “Once again, neither the Belfast Agreement nor this suite of provisions was predicated on the basis that UK membership of the EU would continue forever. Neither of them can be construed as requiring a customs Union or continued regulatory alignment” and 83 (iii) “Furthermore, as submitted by the Attorney General it is impossible to distil from either Section 10 of the 2018 Act or any of the relevant provisions of NIA 1998 a legal obligation requiring the United Kingdom to conclude any, or any particular, agreement under Article 50(2) TEU or to ensure no “hard border” between the two separate jurisdictions on this island or that the agenda of NSMC meetings have some specific policy content. Finally, all such issues of importance and interest arising out of the post-withdrawal arrangements which will include the corpus of “retained EU law” and other matters, including the continued EU membership of the Republic of Ireland and the implications of this for sovereign relations on the island and the welfare and interests of its two populations will, without any identifiable impediment, be discussed and debated by the NSMC acting within its remit and powers”.

    https://judiciaryni.uk/sites/judiciary/files/decisions/McCord%20%28Raymond%29%2C%20JR83%20and%20Jamie%20Waring%27s%20Applications%20v%20the%20Prime%20Minister%20and%20others.pdf

    • Caterpillar
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 10:26 pm | Permalink

      Just read paragraphs 93-96 very clear, thanks for pointing these out.

  59. Alan Joyce
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 4:36 pm | Permalink

    Dear Mr. Redwood,

    A Daily Telegraph report suggests that British officials have told the European Commission they will accept all of Theresa May’s Brexit deal except the Irish border backstop ahead of a Johnson / Juncker meeting on Monday.

    Do you think that Mr. Johnson and his senior advisers understand that if he brings May’s WA (minus the backstop) back to the House of Commons and it is passed with the help of Labour votes, then the Conservative party will not win the general election when it finally happens? Or do they not care?

    It is also not a good look for your party to be saying that the Brexit party is headed by someone they describe as not fit and proper. Many natural conservative voters have already backed the Brexit party in the European elections and, I believe, are quite ready to turn to them again if the May deal is resurrected in some form or another.

    The Conservative party will be decimated and deservedly so.

  60. margaret
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 4:55 pm | Permalink

    Re medicine shortage.In the last year there has been an increasing national shortage of some types of medication which I have prescribed frequently in the last 15 years.The shortages have not been attributed yet to Brexit, but I suppose someone could come along and tag cause and effect quite wrongly to the situation.

  61. Lindsay McDougall
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 5:12 pm | Permalink

    And we can tell the European Commission that if any EU Member State causes financial damage to UK exporters by imposing unnecessary delays, we will deduct the amount from our exit fee. Yes, we can.

  62. Chris
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 5:40 pm | Permalink

    The Brexit betrayal in full from Boris, if this report is to be believed:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/13/brexiteers-fear-boris-johnson-sell-may-20-brexit-deal/
    “British officials have told the European Commission they will accept all of Theresa May’s Brexit deal,except the Irish border backstop, ahead of a meeting between Boris Johnson and Jean-Claude Juncker on Monday.

    The revelation, coming as David Frost meets EU officials for talks in Brussels today, has raised fears among Tory Brexiteers that Boris Johnson is preparing to foist a May 2.0 deal on the UK, despite Mr Johnson’s insistence that the withdrawal agreement “is dead”.

    It means the British government is prepared to pay Brussels……”

    What treachery! Sir John, you are far above these apparently unprincipled and weak minded operators and, in my view, would be listened to and would be of much greater value to another Party.

    • Dominic
      Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:04 pm | Permalink

      I’m speechless. After all these despicable creatures have put this nation through with their treachery they continue to rub our noses in it.

      I’d rather be betrayed by openly and sincere UK-hating Marxists than an insincere Tory party that uses patriotism as a veneer to conceal its hate for the UK and its people

      Farage knows the score about how deep anti-British hate has embedded both Tory and Labour parties.

      From here-on in I will be guided by Farage on what we should expect from this abhorrent party in government

  63. Les
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 6:48 pm | Permalink

    A point which I have not heard made is: the affect that frustrating Brexit by both the remainers and especially the EU commission may have, how will it go down with the peoples of Europe – very badly I think – how I do not conjecture … not that I expect great interest in the UK’s prospects from them, but a realisation of just what the system is that they have got themselves caught in.
    This also begs the question of the arrogance of the EU Commission and Barnier etc., that they have over-played their hand and it may come back to bite them in their beloved project.
    If someone digs a trap-pit – they will sooner or later fall into it!

  64. agricola
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:38 pm | Permalink

    I ,like I believe you, want a Parliament that represents the wishes of the majority of the electorate. Even were we to leave the EU on 31st October we would still have a hamstrung government constantly at risk of being undermined by the anti democratic elements that infest the current Parliament.

    At some point we need a GE to resolve matters. There are around the North of England a host of leave Labour seats being ignored by Labour MPs in the way they act in Parliament. These seats are ripe for change of representation. They are not available to the Conservative party but they are to the Brexit party. A sensible tactical Boris should allow the Brexit party unopposed access to these seats. In them Conservative involvement would be a seat losing distraction in the Leave cause.

    Likewise traditional Conservative seats with Leave candidates do not need the distraction of a Brexit party candidate. A pact to achieve it is an absolute need. I would be interested to read your thoughts on this and those of the majority of the contributors to this diary.

  65. margaret
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:50 pm | Permalink

    For the last couple of years I have agreed 100% with John re Brexit. Firstly I don’t have time to read treaties, laws ,articles etc in depth to form an accurate opinion and secondly I feel the need to earn a lot more before shooting my mouth off. I still agree with John on his basic principles where he stated that he cannot see any need for all the fuss or problems we are now experiencing, however we cannot pretend they are not happening as the media , politicians and people of far more important than myself ( love the Uriah touch) seem to love the protracted , convoluted and eventually circular arguments put out there.
    I am now more concerned as more and more businesses move to the Netherlands and important stores like John Lewis reveal the greatest loss in their history . What is more distressing is that the EU are not going to offer us any other type of agreement and yet foolishly a law has been passed to protect a no- go scenario. This is pure foolishness.

  66. margaret
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 7:53 pm | Permalink

    That should be learn not earn although the first meaning would come in handy.

  67. Ian!
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 8:30 pm | Permalink

    Hearing those now calling for a second referendum, putting forward the argument its needed as the ‘country’s is stuck! Further illustrates the bubble that our current crop of MPs live in.

    The only people stuck are those defying the will of the people. Those same people have decided to pitch Parliament against the People. We are not stuck, we just need the HoC to do the job we are paying them for.

    Otherwise the Brexit Party will get stronger, more powerful and keep reminding MPs of there deceit

  68. Cis
    Posted September 13, 2019 at 9:37 pm | Permalink

    The redacted para is said to be about the possible effect of EU-UK tariffs on fuel imports/exports (presumably on bulk tanker scales) and the possibility that this could lead to the loss of one or two UK refineries and associated jobs. But:
    Is it a real problem?
    When was it recognised?
    What has been done to identify potential solutions?
    Which have already been evaluated?
    Why is this still on the issue list three years after the referendum?

  69. John Hatfield
    Posted September 14, 2019 at 6:02 pm | Permalink

    “It is difficult to see why this should happen, as it would be bad logistics business to do that.2
    Makes good propaganda for the susceptible though John.

    • John Hatfield
      Posted September 14, 2019 at 6:04 pm | Permalink

      finger trouble with the 2.

  • About John Redwood


    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, He graduated from Magdalen College Oxford, has a DPhil and is a fellow of All Souls College. A businessman by background, he has been a director of NM Rothschild merchant bank and chairman of a quoted industrial PLC.

    Promoted by David Edmonds on behalf of John Redwood both of 30 Rose Street Wokingham RG40 1XU

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