There has not been a lot of media comment, but the pound has risen from 1.06 Euros to 1.17 Euros since August and from $1.21 to $1.29. The commentators say this has happened thanks to opinion polls implying a Conservative government that can get Brexit done.
Indeed, its not so far off the Euro 1.23 and $1.37 levels it was at just before the referendum. Since then we have seen a worldwide strengthening of the dollar against most currencies, to do with US interest rates being a lot higher than Euro area, Japanese and UK ones.
Prior to the referendum and any suggestion we might leave the EU sterling hit a low of 1.04 Euros in 2009. In the 1980s sterling was well below current levels against the dollar whilst in the EEC.
There has been a lot of nonsense talked about sterling and Brexit. Sterling has fluctuated substantially against both the dollar and the Euro all the time we were firmly in the EU. Interest rate differentials, different outlooks for growth and inflation all have an impact, as does relative money policy. Once out of the EU sterling will doubtless continue to go up and down according to relative sentiment about our economic policy and valuations as it has done during our long time in the EU.
November 30, 2019
Good morning.
If one track Sterling over the course of say ten years, it becomes clear that it has been falling against many of the major currencies around the world. This is due to markets no longer seeing Sterling as a strong currency. There are many reasons for this and, that is why I believe the Governor of the BoE is correct to maintain interest rates as they are to support the currency.
Blaming sny single event simply does not cut it, we need to examine in more detail as to the reasons why. One such reason may be down to poor exports. We simply are not selling enough to the outside world.
What are the Conservative Parties plans to change this ? To increase economic and industrial activity, exports and to reduce the deficit ? Only whatever they have been doing for nearly the last ten years does not seem to have worked.
November 30, 2019
Sterling’s best ever against the euro was in 2004, when it cost about fifty-two pence.
John’s claim that it is now “not much” different from before the referendum depends on what you mean by “not much” and he seems to be stretching it.
Throughout most of 2016 a euro cost just over seventy pence. It has recently fallen from over ninety to around eighty-six.
November 30, 2019
All of the devaluation of the pound took place whilst in the EU.
December 1, 2019
Its decline against the euro is also due to the latter’s generally increasing strength.
You would have to compare Sterling against a basket of currencies during that time to verify your claim, which I think you’ll find to be wrong.
After all, it was worth four dollars once, long before the EC existed.
November 30, 2019
Over the decades we have been in the EU/EEC/Common Market the Pound has risen and fallen greatly Martin.
Varying from near $2 dollars to the pound to near $1 to the pound
The Euro varying from €1.73 to near €1.00 to the pound.
There were many reasons these values altered on world markets but now you think every movement is only caused by Brexit.
December 1, 2019
No, I don’t.
On what evidence do you claim that I do?
December 1, 2019
I’m still waiting for evidence from you for your repeated claim that everyone who didn’t vote in the referendum would have voted to remain.
November 30, 2019
‘maintain interest rates as they are to support the currency.’ That’s economic nonsense. To support a currency you raise relative interest rates to a point that attracts risk capital into sterling denominated assets and then allow the market to makes its judgement as to whether the increased return on holding those assets exceeds the capital risk of holding risk assets
Following our departure from the ERM Chancellor Lamont pushed interest rates up to 15% with sole purpose of propping up the value of sterling vis a vis other competing currencies. The effect? It forces up internal borrowing costs for private companies and government debt. In effect the private sector having to absorb extra cost to pay the for the stupidity and ignorance of politicians and civil servants in Government
Lamont couldn’t run a whelk stall
December 1, 2019
They put it up to 15% whilst still in the ERM to support the pound. Say what you like about Norman Lamont, in the third episode of, I think it was the Poisoned Chalice, Major, Heseltine and Clarke all sat round a table in the Admiralty building wondering what to do as the nation went down the pan. What do you say about that ?
November 30, 2019
Well if we get sensible economic policies (which might perhaps happen if we get a workable majority and if(?) Boris is sensible and goes for lower taxes and far smaller government) then the pound will be fine. If however we get Corbyn or some dire coalition then it will be a complete disaster.
A couple of thing from the debate last night. Rishi Sunak did quite well. Libdims, SNP, Plaid, Labour, Greens all want a blatantly racist immigration system. Open door to EU good rest bad or worse still open door to almost all in Labour’s case. The Brexit party chairman thinks that the NHS gives excellent outcomes.
Perhaps he should look at the statistics they are actually some of the worse in the world for a developed nation. If Labour are elected they want to gerrymander the voting system, lowering the voting age and allowing nearly anyone resident in the UK to vote.
November 30, 2019
I didn’t watch the debate, having reached the stage where I can hardly stomach anymore of this nonsense. However, I am beginning to think that history may well be about to repeat itself, i.e. Mrs May’s disaster. I think that this is because the Tories are beginning to lose the propaganda war, having let Labour successfully switch the debate from Brexit to the NHS, Climate Change etc. Mendacious Mr Corbyn, and his even more dangerous colleague, John McDonell, are appealing to many young people who are too young to have had any real experience of Labour’s previous actions; also, being young, they have accumulated very little wealth, possessions etc. to lose, that would result from these two charlatans being in office.
If my memory serves me correctly, at their last exit from power, didn’t one Liam Byrne leave a note on a table in the Treasury with the comment “Sorry mate, but the money’s all gone”?
Why don’t the Tories make a bit more about this and similar items?
I also think that Boris is wise to duck an interview with Andrew Neil; he would be taken apart.
November 30, 2019
If, as I think they will, the Tories do get a workable majority. We should all be very grateful to the Boris team for rescuing us from May’s gross incompetence/dishonesty and the 9&/5th places support she took the party to, also from the dire threat of a Corbyn/SNP disaster.
The Newsnight presenter last night Kirsty Wark, in typically BBC blatant bias mode was clearly a big Nichola Sturgeon fan. I think her (and her mad policies) would be a disaster for the UK and are already a disaster for Scotland.
Also grateful to Corbyn for making Labour totally unelectable.
November 30, 2019
I think you will find that KWark is a Scot and was a close friend of one Gordon Brown, enough said.
November 30, 2019
Whatever the Pound does the key to our future is what Boris does with his Brexit opportunity should he get in with a working majority. If he continues with WA2, a replica of WA1, he will sink as did the duplicitous May. In the run up to Christmas we will discover just how clever Boris is.
November 30, 2019
Obviously I cannot guarantee what will happen next summer, by which time an FTA would have to be in place to avoid a further extension. However, it is clear to me that a scenario in which BJ is pursuing the softest of BRINOs, coupled with a working majority, will result in ‘getting Brexit done’. Even in the unlikely event of a Tory rebellion I think that cross-party support would compensate – if it were even needed.
The prospect of BJ pivoting to a proper Brexit is for the birds. He doesn’t want that, and even if somehow I’m wrong about one individual (I cannot see into the depths of BJ’s soul, and he is compulsively dishonest), that the Tories are institutionally EU-phile precludes a proper Brexit. Despite numbering our kind host and one or two others in their ranks, the Tory party at its higher levels is as Remainy as any other.
November 30, 2019
His May’s W/A with fig leaves on is still not Brexit and very inferior to just leaving. It make the secondary negotiation far more difficult too. Rid of the appalling Benn act and with a majority he should just leave.
November 30, 2019
9% / 5th place.
November 30, 2019
LL-‘Also grateful to Corbyn for making Labour totally unelectable.’
Agreed but why doesn’t Boris say so? After the Andrew Neil interview Boris should have said, ‘I welcome and am very pleased with what Mr Corbyn has said in his interview with Mr A N which shows his total incompetence and inability to understand what is written in reports. Not a recommendation for the office of PM.
November 30, 2019
Charles Moore is surely right today on the blatant bias and utter stupidity of the Channel Four Climate “Emergency” debate. Particularly all the opening shots of floods, storms, Greta and Koalas.
November 30, 2019
It is the London centric Metro-elite talking to itself. Outside the M25 is a different world.
November 30, 2019
I hope you are right about outside the M25.
November 30, 2019
Quite so.
The “debates” are nothing other than Punch and Judy Shows and are utterly meaningless. Political leaders should have more dignity than to participate.
November 30, 2019
What expertise does Charles Moore have in climate science? That’d be none. He studied English and history and has since written for (increasingly) right wing newspapers. I would like some actual climate experts to take these deniers to some of the places on Earth which are already being ravaged by climate change.
November 30, 2019
Whatever random weather events occur, you warmists say it is due to climate change.
Even the IPCC say there is little evidence there is any increase in extreme weather events.
Do you deny the IPCC is wrong?
November 30, 2019
Andy, What expertise do you have in climate science? That’d be none. You studied what? – trolling. And have since written for (increasingly) left wing trollsters. I would like some actual climate experts to take CAGW dupes like you to all the places on Earth which are not being ravaged by climate change. You’ll be gone a long time.
November 30, 2019
NickC – – well from the range of expertise he shows in his daily lectures he must be up there with the best polymaths.
November 30, 2019
The pound is rising on the prospect of a Boris BRINO.
November 30, 2019
Latest poll Tory lead down to 12% just like May.
As it becomes clear that Boris is going to shaft us the number of seats will reduce.
November 30, 2019
Eight percent, according to latest from Panelbase.
November 30, 2019
Ian – – I fear more and more voters will learn about the WA and doubt why we would want to sign. The undecided will grow, and reluctance to take the step to support Boris after these years of turmoil might become a stay at home or Brexit Party vote. At least they would not carry the guilt of tying us to the EU once more. A majority? Maybe but possibly so low we are back into H of C school playground all over again.
November 30, 2019
It will move up and down in ways that suggest the exchanges can make a profit. They are not charities nor are they precise thermometers. It is perception turned into a profit. Check out the price of sprouts as we move towards Christmas.
November 30, 2019
Demand and supply. When Sprouts (Sterling) is in demand, the price goes up and vise versa. Sadly, those in power do not all have what it takes to understand this. Too much magic money tree thinking which further devalues the currency and makes us poorer.
November 30, 2019
The threat of Corbyn/SNP/Libdim economic lunacy is surely enough to hold the ÂŁ down let us hope that appalling threat disappears on 12th Dec.
November 30, 2019
People talk as if the EU was a safe haven. It is not.
The euro is based on Germany which is slowing down and if – and when – we leave the EU a major economic engine will be removed. That is going to leave a very weak EU indeed. Add to that the political weakness because the EU is in no way democratic and also the drive to ever closer union and you have the recipe for long term disaster – perhaps a very nasty disaster indeed.
November 30, 2019
Mike
We will still be paying in for years to come while, through the powers of the ECJ via the WA, the UK will be asset stripped by France and Germany. Sadly, we have a political class that is too self interested to see this and care. Witness Greece.
November 30, 2019
Of course they can ‘see it’, Mark B. The depressing thing is that they actually DON’T care.
November 30, 2019
Ssshhh now. You all voted for it. Accept democracy.
November 30, 2019
Andy, I’ll accept Leave. Which is what we voted for. And before 23 June 2016 everyone agreed, including Remain, that Leave involved abrogating the EU treaties – thereby, as a nation, being free of all EU control.
November 30, 2019
Quite likely.
November 30, 2019
“No-one” is really talking about Europe anymore -it’s all about Eurasia and the development of the Eurasian Land Bridge linking Europe and Asia-rail,roads,pipelines,trade corridors,etc.The further away you are from that(UK and Japan,for instance) the more precarious your position will be.That’s one of the reasons for the current bust up between M Macron and Mrs Merkel-he’s turning East,she still has a lingering Atlanticist inclination(which is not shared by an increasing number of her countrymen) despite her loathing of Mr Trump.All but the most specialised manufacturing will probably gravitate towards east Europe/Central Asia around this new core.Hungary seems quite well placed-I understand that on the basis of investment already committed Hungary will become Huawei’s largest European manufacturing location and also the largest manufacturer of e-car batteries.
November 30, 2019
Sterling is remarkably strong considering our manufacturing industry has been under a sustained attack from the EU for the last 20 or so years. Whole sections have been effected by EU regulations and inducements to move whole factories to Eastern Europe.
The rise in exchange rates is in anticipation of our leaving the EU but if we don’t do so properly they will slide back down
Over the last 3 years there has been much talk of the approaching ‘cliff edge” which has been the Remainer’s ultimate weapon in Project Fear. Now we have the threat of a real ”cliff edge”.
If Boris and the Conservative Party does not get a substantial majority and we end up with a hung parliament similar to that prior to the election, this country will slide into the quagmire and confusion of the EU and disappear off the world stage forever.
There is a substantial group of potential Labour, Lib/Dem and SNP, MPs who have never accepted the result of the Referendum and who’s sole aim is to drive this country into the arms of Europe and ultimate oblivion. The fewer that get elected the better
November 30, 2019
Seems to me that over the past year or two the pound has fallen at the prospect of a ‘no deal’ and risen on the hope of a ‘deal’ which is why it is ‘high’ today. The closer we are tied to the EU the higher the pound goes. And it looks like WA2 keeps us as a client state.
November 30, 2019
client or slave?
November 30, 2019
The rate of €1.06 to the ÂŁ applied when ‘No Deal’ was thought to be the most likely outcome. If we leave fully with ‘No Deal’ at the end of 2020 that might be the rate again. A 10% fall is sufficient to overcome most EU tariff barriers under WTO rules. Agricultural tariffs are an exception and we will have to protect some of our agricultural exporters – e.g. sheep farmers – in the short term; it’s not a big issue.
November 30, 2019
I still do not see how we are leaving the EU under the Tory Party’s plans. For example, Art. 150(4) of the WA provides that a particular repayment of €3.5 billion of our money would take the next twelve years, (and specifies that “[t]he payments made in accordance with this paragraph shall not release the [UK] from its liability under paragraph 5”). This subsection alone means the Withdrawal Agreement will still be in force at the end of the next two Parliaments. An eighteen-year-old who voted to Leave will still be living under the WA when he is in his thirties. What is more, the Tory Party seem to have no control over the next stage in negotiations for the same reason as currently – they are not prepared to go without a deal. If they were, why would they not do so now, and avoid ratifying the Withdrawal Agreement?
November 30, 2019
Kevin, That is correct. It has always been correct. There are only two viable options: in, or out. We voted to leave EU control. When are we going to get it?
November 30, 2019
Sterling’s rise is surely partly to do with WA2 not delivering Brexit coupled with the falling probability of a Marxist government. To suggest otherwise is disingenuous
I trade the markets. I know that the market fears an independent and sovereign UK unlinked from the EU and its single market
November 30, 2019
Currently importing 12.7% of our electricity according to gridwatch. There is very little wind. I wonder with what currency do we pay for these imports?
November 30, 2019
Off Topic.
Just received a letter from Sarah Wollaston, Former Totnes Conservative MP now a Lib Dem.
Asking for myself and my Wife to Vote for her new Party, even though she is not contesting your present seat here in Wokingham.
This is the 8th different type of Letter, leaflet, poster which has been delivered to our address by the Lib Dems in the last few weeks, clearly they are putting in a lot of effort, and a lot of money, (leafleting on this scale, is not cheap) into trying to win your seat John.
I am aware that you are travelling the constituency making your presence felt where possible, and that you host this excellent website at your own expense, which I read daily, but so far nothing from the Conservatives through the door.
Aware something is probably in production, but can I suggest you make as much reference as you can to this excellent web site, so that more constituents in particular may read your daily thoughts, suggestions and actions.
Reason:
I am hearing far too many people of late telling me you do nothing, and are not interested, when I am aware the complete opposite is true.
When I ask if any of them have ever read or made comment on any of the daily topics on your website, they look puzzled, as they seem completely unaware that such communication possibilities exists.
Your response in the Local Paper to a reader making complaint was excellent by the way.
Reply I have set out under local issues the leaflets we are sending to each home
November 30, 2019
I obviously posted too soon JR, your leaflet posted through my letter box only this lunchtime.
Pleased it suggests people look at your website, pleased also you offer a positive outlook to voters, we have far too much negativity about.
November 30, 2019
A lot of nonsense indeed.
Well said John.
Scotland runs a 8-10% budget deficit with low inflation and the ground has not opened up or the sky fall in. Scotland is not a communist state.
Japan has spent quadrillion of yen has a debt to GDP ratio of 250% with low interest rates, low inflation and very low unemployment rates and a net zero immigration policy and Japan is not a communist state.
And neither Scotland or Japan has turned into Venezula
🙂
December 1, 2019
Scotland is kept afloat on the English Pound. Take that away and you will see your Venezuela plus kilt.
November 30, 2019
« How the right’s radical think tanks reshaped the Conservative Party » The Long Read, Guardian, 29/11/2019.
No need for crybabies, the future is bright.
November 30, 2019
Hefner, I rather not read the Guardian, thank you. If I want a dose of socialist drivel I can always listen to the BBC.
November 30, 2019
Just received your election flyer Sir John, by far the best I’ve seen and certainly the most earnest and informed. Thanks for all you continue to do for Wokingham. Best wishes for Dec12, you’ll definitely be getting our vote.
Reply
Thanks. I believe in giving people a good read if they want to see what I do and what I thin. They can always throw it away if it is too long.
November 30, 2019
It is amusing watching the way you all get so exasperated when your Brexit gets blamed when things go wrong. And when things go right – which I appreciate with Brexit they haven’t yet – you will get no credit. Oh dear. Poor you.
You see this is how it goes now. When something goes wrong it will be Brexit’s fault – even if it isn’t Brexit’s fault. And nothing that goes right will be thanks to Brexit. You will all quickly find this very very annoying and unfair.
But it is just repeating what has happened for the last 40 years during which you all blamed the EU for everything bad. Apparently it was the EUs fault that Cadbury was bought by the Americans and moved to Poland. It wasn’t. Apparently the EU paid JLR to move to Slovakia. It didn’t. Apparently the woes in our fishing industry are all caused by the EU. They aren’t. And on and on and on.
After 10, 20, 30 years of us blaming Brexit for everything the public will clearly want to rejoin the EU. And, in the meantime, we get to make life deliciously awkward for you all.
November 30, 2019
I just want to live in a nation like over 150 in the world that are independent and do not submerge themselves into a superstate.
Millions have died fighting wars to achieve that national freedom.
For better or for worse.
It isn’t about trade.
December 1, 2019
Indeed.
Trade will go on anyway.
November 30, 2019
Andy, Have you discovered yet why the UK is incapable of governing itself, and needs your EU empire to do it for us?
December 1, 2019
Nick C
There is no empire and we are governing ourselves, so stop this fake news nonsense
December 1, 2019
Read the Five Five Presidents Report.
It is all in there.
They have a plan.
The United States of Europe.
It is coming.
November 30, 2019
Although the British voted to Leave in 2016 (so long ago !), the argument for leaving still needs to be made in Britain’s December general election.
So much time has passed, people forget or change sides, and millions of new voters attain the register. It’s no good assuming the argument is done and dusted.
Voters need to be constantly told the harsh reality about the European Union so that eventually the message sinks in. Namely that it intends, through salami slicing, to abolish nation states by 2030 and reduce them to regional government.
Certainly the European Union fully intends to complete all the foundations for their new state by 2025 and to formally found the Federal State of Europe by 2030.
The irony, of course, is that having spent decades destroying the only true form of democratic government known to mankind, the sovereign democratic nation state, the monolithic replacement will not be by any stretch of the imagination democratic. it will be governed exclusively by a self-selecting technocratic elite via the European Commission. This goal is now only two five year plans away, the first of which starts on Monday, December 2 2019.
Yet there seems no serious desire on the part of Leavers to continually inform the British public of the harsh realities at this crucial time, but instead to cruise comfortably into an assumed election victory, which, thanks to uninformed Remainers, looks an increasingly tenuous proposition.
Polly
November 30, 2019
I am really surprised that the euro has been so resilient against other currencies given that the printing presses in Europe have not stopped turning out euros. I think the rise in the value of the pound just lately is because there is speculation that the Conservatives will get Brexit sorted so that we can move on. Looking forward, we need a strong team of negotiators to sort out a free trade agreement with the EU,not the bunch of yes men that May used. A few names come to mind like: Nigel Farage,IDS,Richard Tice, Steve Baker and yourself. We have to believe in the UK and not be bullied by unelected bureaucrats in Brussels.
December 1, 2019
If we sign this WA the EU will have most of what it wants and we nothing ! The next round will be same as before – we will be told to concede on our Red Lines whilst they do nothing.
November 30, 2019
I have been listening to the daily fluctuations since the Euro was worth 63 p.
November 30, 2019
Swiss Francs in 1975 about six to the pound, but now down to almost parity so circa 4% PA depreciation PA average for each of the 44 years compounded. Currency depreciation is just another government tax in essence on savers.
You earn it, they pinch about 40%, then they depreciate what’s left at about 4% PA then if you leave any they take another 40% off you in death in IHT for good measure.
December 1, 2019
And that is why people no longer want to keep Sterling. People moan about JC and his Venezuelan economics but it is being practiced here but in slow motion.
November 30, 2019
“Speaking For England”
I hope that when Brexit is done, you will be able to turn your attention back towards “Speaking for England”
One of your first actions might be to tackle the editor of the Daily Telegraph :
Beneath the header of the front page of the online version of the newspaper there is a tab for “UK News” Behind that tab it is a drop-down list which contains three sections. These are Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland.
Clearly, in the opinion of the Daily Telegraph, England and its 56 million citizens does not exist !
December 1, 2019
Very few politician, even BXP ones, ever mention England. They refer to our country as, ‘The Regions’.
November 30, 2019
Boris’ WA leaves a lot out. At first I was surprised John Redwood supported it. However, the previous government did trigger Article 50. If May had not called her disastrous 2017 election maybe we could have simply repealed the 1973 Act that took us into the EEC. Bear in mind we had not been subject then to all the Project Fear rubbish.
Probably though May/Hammond would have been incapable of Governing UK even then.
Now we are in a different place. Article 50 was triggered. We are expected to ‘leave’ with a WA. If you don’t like Boris as a PM you surely must hate the alternatives! Get his WA through then insist he gets all the rest we need within a year. The EU are not our friends they intend to continue plundering us. In the final analysis Who needs a FTA? Us or them? We intend to have full sovereignty and control. That’s what we voted for. So – Crash out. Run our Economy on sensible lines.
December 1, 2019
The WA is worse than staying in. No thanks !
November 30, 2019
Dear Sir John,
After the Referendum my Remain-backing friends argued that their living standards were already falling because of the sharp fall in sterling. It was a fair point, especially for those who travel a lot.
Much of that fall was, however, the consequence of the Bank of England cutting Bank Rate in response. The Bank thought the Referendum result was bad for Britain and bad for business and consumer confidence, which needed shoring up. In reality, it was the resulting fall in sterling that damaged confidence, fortunately with only temporary effect.
Uncertainty clearly has had an effect on capital investment but that could not be countered by a cutting an already low Bank Rate, only by “getting Brexit done”. As is still the case.