The Chancellor yesterday set out how he intends to wind down the furlough scheme whilst encouraging employers to keep those employees and to restore their work. He also made some proposals to boost tourism and hospitality business, and to assist more young people into the workforce. I will post my short speech in the House on the economy later this morning.
This is your opportunity to comment on the current state of the recovery and government plans to stimulate it.
July 9, 2020
Good Morning,
It is hard to believe that this should still be the case:
The cross-party Commons Public Accounts Committee said the Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC) is not treating the issue with ‘sufficient urgency’. The committee said: ‘We are extremely concerned by the widely reported shortages of personal protective equipment faced by NHS and care workers during the Covid-19 pandemic.
This epidemic is NOT over. What is the government doing to ensure that the necessary equipment, and PPE, is available? It needs to be manufactured in the UK, and now.
July 9, 2020
This epidemic is NOT over.
>
It never started
July 9, 2020
Nothing mentioned of the huge MP pay rise (£82,000) for a part- time unqualified job under the cover of the Chinese virus no mention that numbers of MPs to remain the same when a cut was promised ten years ago- where are this radical reforms? NO mention of the number of Lords or pay there either. This corrupt self entitled parliament needs to be got rid of.
All it in together- familiar phrase but no changes to the law makers and breakers who continually flout the law and treat the public with contempt. It is difficult to think of any other body or organization that provides so little value, make so many appalling decisions and get inflation defying pay and perks. Even when they break the law still allowed to vote etc!
July 9, 2020
JR, we read a contingent of Tory MPs were going to see the governor of the BoE, rather than speak to the chancellor. Highly unusual. Why and who were they?
reply Garbled story
July 10, 2020
I thought the Spectator set out your govts self induced mess quite clearly in a cogent reasoned way.
July 9, 2020
but it did finish > 40,000 people in the UK, 500,000 Worldwide.
July 9, 2020
P.S.
At last, the ‘Landbridge’ for ROI is coming up. I wonder if we’ll allow ROI goods free entry into/through the UK if there is no FTA….
July 9, 2020
It is like watching one catastrophe after another unfold before our own eyes, all created and made by bad decisions of the Fake Tory Johnson govt.
He has shown without doubt that he is the worst decision maker of all time. When everyone thought things could not get worse than under Mayhab, hope extinguished within months. Fake Tories had their chance and delivered nothing, absolutely nothing over ten years (3 useless clueless PMs on a trot, did any of them keep their word? The dishonesty of one left the nation breathless with despair). We are literally watching this Fake Tory govt destroy, socially and economically, our country.
July 9, 2020
What I find perplexing is that the cause of this economic crisis seems to me to have been forgotten, it has vapourised like an aerosolized virus particle. The economic crisis was caused by our own actions in shutting down the economy, which we did because it was feared the unprepared NHS couldn’t cope with the virus taking hold to a great extent.
So I would have thought the emphasis now should be to get the economy back to normal (not a new normal) now, and make sure the NHS can cope if the virus takes hold to a great extent in future. Through practical measures targeted specifically at this virus such as U.K made PPE for NHS staff to try and avoid a 1/10,000th mm virus particle, utilising outdoor spaces for field hospitals taking adavantage of wind, UV light & humidity to “weigh down” the particles so they fall to the ground in the event of a further outbreak; so as to be prepared this time.
Instead I see lots of money being spent to create a “new normal” of prolonging an economic crisis, through measures which will probably not give us much chance of avoiding said particles anymore than we avoid colds when winter arrives and the air is cold and dry. Fewer folk will be as badly impacted by contracting the virus than they will be due to the lack of work. And furthermore without the NHS being able to cope in future; they’ll have no job and then recieve poor medical treatment if required upon contracting the virus.
July 9, 2020
much sense in this post.
The more I hear “the new normal” the harder I cringe.
We need to adapt to make sure we can continue, not avoid.
July 11, 2020
Examine what Taiwan & Japan and others did.
1) Increased local production of PPE etc using the army and state.
2) Acted early and sensibly to facts.
3) Learned from earlier episodes.
Proper operation of border controls, compliant populations to sensible precautions. Respect for others and mask wearing self distancing if ill be it a cold, fever etc.
WHO etc cannot suggest masks unless they are cheap and in plentiful local supply.
You would think some bright spark in overseas aid quangos would get a factory built in the UK to make this stuff for local and overseas use.
July 9, 2020
Peter Wood said: “It needs to be manufactured in the UK, and now”. A wise sentiment. But too late. Manufacturing cannot be switched on and off like a light switch.
It will take time to re-build a manufacturing base here for very many products. And the refusal of other countries to supply us (predicted by me for years) has shown we must do it. But it’s not what the government is doing.
July 9, 2020
The refusal was not out of spite, sometimes it was simply because all of their available stock was on order for other buyers. On other occasions it was because they could get a better price.
That’s the private sector for you.
It exists for one purpose only. To make profits.
If you want a different objective for an undertaking, then you have to make that people’s job descriptions in an entity.
July 9, 2020
No shortages of anything in Venezuela of course.
July 9, 2020
That is not the only alternative.
Stop acting the fool.
July 10, 2020
You think everything State run is great and hate any business that makes a profit.
Plainly you are not even acting the fool.
July 10, 2020
You haven’t a clue what I or anyone else think.
You make yourself look ever sillier.
July 10, 2020
Martin
Yoi need to beware nill coming on and accusing you of posts without any facts.
Simple abuse doesn’t win any debate.
July 10, 2020
typo Bill coming on
July 10, 2020
Martin, Motive is irrelevant. Access and control is. It is a fact that some EU states (France and Germany) prevented the export of suitable medical kit (to the UK and to Italy), even when the private firms were willing to supply. That’s the state sector for you.
But even that is not the whole story. Without UK manufacturing we are dependent on Jonny Foreigner looking after us. And why should he? This is why I have repeatedly warned that a true free market is not possible internationally.
July 9, 2020
“An Anglesey care home is said to have prevented a coronavirus outbreak with a “life saving” £20 face mask….Discussions are already underway between Virustatic and Care England – the umbrella representative body for private sector residential care home providers – to initiate such trials.” Daily Post
July 9, 2020
Coronavirus: Decade of Tory austerity policies left UK ‘unprepared’ for outbreak, former government science adviser says. Report in 2006 set out need for swift response to pandemic outbreaks, says Sir David King. (Andrew Woodcock. Independent)
July 10, 2020
Austerity caused by the previous New Labour governments mismanagement of the economy.
Let us not forget that shall we 😉
July 10, 2020
Here’s me thinking that the global credit crisis was caused by the collapse of the low-end US property market, making many of their mortgages near-worthless.
Caused by Bush’s U-turn on the amnesty for millions of clandestine migrants, incidentally.
July 10, 2020
Martin, You are right that the proximate cause was the collapse of the low end USA property finance market. But that was primarily the result of Clinton’s beefed up CRA.
July 10, 2020
Who sold our gold at rock bottom price?
July 9, 2020
I thought the package was a good one in general, but I would like to see a cut in VAT on all things. In my opinion, 20% is way too high. Some people might hesitate to spend on something, when they calculate the VAT payable. On some larger (but essential) items , the VAT adds a significant amount to the cost. For some, it might make the difference between buying, and not buying.
I believe there is still VAT on domestic heating. In my opinion, it should be removed.
July 9, 2020
Cheshire Girl, It was an unbelievably bad package. It complicates an already complicated tax and policy position. It has the annoying jump-through-hoops-to-get-a-“free”-packet-of-biscuits mentality. Jeremy Corbyn would be proud.
We all know what will increase wealth in this country – simplify laws, simplify and reduce taxes, stop government “picking winners” (that includes supposed “green” supposed winners), and stop government giving our money (and fish!) away to foreigners.
July 9, 2020
correct – the current VAT model (various items/lists various rates) is full of smoke and mirrors so the consumers don’t realise the tax thats actually attached to a sale……They could put 5% on every single sale item…but we’d notice that and it would become a topic for debate at general election
We’re all in it together
July 11, 2020
I liked the idea of a simple reduction in VAT, for all sectors, but with a temp lower or zero rate for those worst hit.
Perhaps a zero rate ( meaning input recovery) above the VAT threshold, for those who wish to register below it.
July 9, 2020
@Cheshire Girl. Yep – we need more spending and more jobs. VAT and employers national insurance rates are rediculously high.
July 9, 2020
CG, How could it be a good package when he or the Fake Tory govt. do not have the faintest idea whether it will achieve its aim, if they know what that aim is could they tell everyone so we could measure the success or failure!
July 9, 2020
CG, could you tell us what a good level of national debt is, what a good level of deficit is and how this good package it going to be paid for and by whom? Grateful in advance of knowing what is good about the reckless decision to wreck the economy by closing everything down and paying people to stay at home until October when the peak of infection was reached before.
Rioting at raves and BLM protests ought to have given than fake Tories a clue to send people back to work, school, and university! Still no track and trace, the world beater Johnson promised by June.
July 9, 2020
His plans look like silly, childish gimmicks to me. Now we have to pay taxes to give people fairly worthless vouchers for insulation (with endless conditions attached) or to buy people a cheap lunch. Stamp duty is an appallingly damaging tax. At 1% it did not do too much damage at up to 15% it is masively damaging to the economy. We do not want a holiday we want to get rid of it completely Rishi.
The man needs to get real – what is needed is far less government, far less interference, lower simpler taxes cheap on demand energy and zero greencrap. Just cut out all the government waste (at least 50% is). Plus fair competition, freedom of choice in healthcare, education, broadcasting, housing, energy ………… His opposite number Anneliese Dodds (yet another PPE dope) sounds even worse than Sunak. Both essentially deluded socialists
July 9, 2020
Spot on LL.
July 9, 2020
Just heard Sunak say something like it was “impossible to predict the even economy accurately for 12 months”.
Quite right – but how much more impossible to predict the climate for 100 years? Yes he is pissing money away on absurd attempts to make C02 reductions. We do not need CO2 reductions and anyway the method he is subsidising with out taxes do not work anyway. They just export it and export many jobs too. Stop it you damn fool.
July 9, 2020
Yet not yes.
July 9, 2020
Not one of the predicted climate dooms have come true over the last 30 years. Not one. If our establishment really believed the green garbage they spout, they wouldn’t be building infrastructure here, they’d be moving to the Antarctic, because it’s already “too late”.
July 9, 2020
+1
July 9, 2020
LL, once again I can’t fail to appreciate and endorse your Logic, but that’s the problem. Anything that looks like logic, simplicity or common sense will be anathema to this Government and we will be doomed to disappointment if we nurse any hopes of the tiniest bit of notice being taken of your suggestions.
I remember so well the other side of the coin It was the day that Nigel Lawson took an axe to the morass of Tax legislation.
Sir John will remember with satisfaction similar radical initiatives of trade Union legislation, privatisation and Government actions that had hitherto been ‘obviously’ impossible.
July 9, 2020
correct – we need a third way a third party (and I don’t mean the Libdems)
July 9, 2020
I agree a new 3rd party without any of the rag, tag and bobtail members of the liberal but not democratic fringe.
July 10, 2020
+1. Bring it on!
July 9, 2020
Your last sentence sums up the problem, Lifelogic. We do not have a Conservative government.
July 9, 2020
LL, in fairness to Sunak his Treasury is actually now no.10’s, he is just the mouthpiece. Tories in the March budget did not reduce their fifty year high taxation, or the IHT that you you regularly mention. Fake Tories announced huge spending on useless projects and the continuance of overseas aid! In fact much of yesterday’s reckless spending added to the reckless spending March budget about a week before lockdown. It was all foreseeable before the March budget. Even Mayhab spoke out in surprise! You know it has to be bad when the worst PM in modern history recognises the stupidity.
July 9, 2020
yes but its far far worse than that
July 9, 2020
Broadcasting? The BBC have already announced they want to grab the £157.50p from the over 75s from the 1st of August to continue over paying themselves, 1st class travel & outrageous expenses & to keep the likes of Lineker in the life style they’ve become accustomed to with their over generous contracts while all the time pushing their woke agenda.
July 9, 2020
They won’t be grabbing £157-50 from me even though I’m well under 75. I’ve not had a BBC licence for many years. If a few more likewise defunded the BBC, the woke luvvies might have to get a real job. And we wouldn’t have to suffer their pro EU, pro BLM, pro cultural marxist, pro climate catastrophe pap.
July 9, 2020
+1 I don’t pay either.
July 10, 2020
+1. Me neither. I’ve even stopped bothering to listen to Radio 4, which I could do for free. There are more interesting and free alternatives out there.
July 9, 2020
I see that HMRC’s permanent secretary, Jim Harra (a law graduate) warned the chancellor it was impossible to judge whether his £1,000-a-worker “job retention bonus”, or his “eat out to help out” meal discount represent good value for taxpayers’ money, it has emerged. He wrote to the chancellor to request a formal “ministerial direction” to go ahead with each scheme – though he said there was “sound policy rationale” for both. But at least this is giving money back to businesses and people rather than grabbing it off them and usually wasting it.
Well very little the government does represents good value for the tax payer – look at HS2 and all the subsidies for intermittent so called “renewable” energy. Plus almost everything else they do. Ministers wasted £10 billion on the track and trace system it seems too. How on earth did they spend so much so quickly and on what?
July 9, 2020
He’ll be PM before long. Johnson isn’t finding it quite the fun that he’d hoped, I don’t think.
July 9, 2020
The way he’s throwing money around, and to lost causes, he will certainly get votes from what was the Labour Party.
July 9, 2020
It seems that 13 universities may go bust without a bailout, due to coronavirus. Well far more than that richly deserve to go bust and this would surely be quite a good thing for the economy. Stop all the soft “loan” for duff degrees in duff and non vocational subjects and for anyone with less than about 3 Bs at A level. Currently half the people going have 3 Ds or less. Let them resit, or pay for themselves or get a job. Then they can learn on the job or study part time (day release or at night schools).
July 9, 2020
I’m all for ending the ghastly university industry we have spawned, but I would like some of the savings put into vocational colleges and ”night schools” (in this day and age, that might translate to a mixture of hands-on and internet-based study, depending on the subject matter). Instead of impoverishing and brainwashing our young people, our further/higher education system should equip them to be productive members of society.
July 9, 2020
exactly!
July 9, 2020
indeed.
July 9, 2020
I read you first sentence and thought “Serves them b well right!
And it does!
July 9, 2020
I wish the govt would TOTALLY clear out all the bogus foreign-run “colleges and unis” that churn out fake qualifications which are used to put untrained and genuinely dangerous unqualified people into high paid jobs.
July 9, 2020
They’re a private business, if they can’t manage the given public funds and mis-manage their accounts and pay themselves hugh salaries….they should stop trading and be allowed to go bust without any further taxpayer money
July 9, 2020
What’s Sunak want, a pat on the head for spending taxpayers money?
Tory voters and libertarians demand reform of Labour’s Socialist, unionised, vile client state not more money thrown at it in the most corrupt fashion imaginable
What is it with the contemporary politician? You destroy our freedoms, destroy our economy, you demonise its people using the falsity of race-crime and you crush our public finances to protect the Tory-Labour duopoly in the Commons and you expect praise and adulation?
Have you any idea how much both parties are despised?
As Mr Hamilton tweeted a few weeks back in the most sinister of fashions, ‘We can see you’. And do you know what, we can see what your political game is. It is nothing less than the construction of an all-powerful political State in which the two main Parliamentary parties are protected from political harm
Maintaining the corrupt status quo is now the only raison d’etre for the British State and those who feed well at its trough
July 9, 2020
+1
July 9, 2020
+1
July 9, 2020
We need an election, no govt has got it so wrong so quickly.
July 10, 2020
You’ve said that twice already in the last few years.
July 10, 2020
The last elections were called because the Tories wanted them, nothing to do with whether you did or not.
You happened to want one too then. You are mistaken if you think that they were anything to do with that.
July 9, 2020
Oh yes!
Get on with that book!
July 9, 2020
Dominic, they are covering themselves for when the inevitable collapse comes, that is all. It is one big puppet show.
July 9, 2020
Politician love to pretend it is their money and “their government” are creating X jobs or protecting Y jobs. But this is all done with taxes taken off businesses and people who would have spent or invested it rather better. This destroys or exports far more jobs than are ever created.
July 9, 2020
They are very good at creating parasite and pointless jobs that does such harm to our ability to compete in the world. These both in the state sector and the private sector (red tape compliance people, HR people, lawyers and tax planners as good examples).
July 9, 2020
+2
July 9, 2020
+1
July 9, 2020
Dominic, A really good summary. Thank you. The state bureaucrat’s dream: that government of the people, by the government, for the government, shall not perish from the earth.
Moreover, China has a state run “social score” system to maintain obedience too. We do it informally. As luvvies, such as J K Rowling, have found out, now the cancel culture is eating them, not just the howwid right.
July 9, 2020
+1
July 9, 2020
“Have you any idea how much both parties are despised.”
No. But they do know that the FPTP electoral system will protect them since it’s virtually impossible for an insurgent party to break through ….. and that’s what’s important.
July 10, 2020
Good point. They’re not going to offer us an alternative any time soon.
July 10, 2020
+1
July 9, 2020
The economy is obviously in a mess. These latest measures are band aid but, no doubt, welcome to its beneficiaries. Meanwhile the public finances are getting worse than ever. It is worth reminding ourselves that governments do not create wealth, they spend and redistribute the wealth created by others. Government can make wealth creation easier or more difficult by its tax regime and the laws and regulations it passes that the wealth creators must observe. That test has yet to be passed, presumably in the autumn budget statement. Until then judgment is reserved.
July 9, 2020
@oldtimer; It is not entirely true that govts do not directly create wealth. I will repeat (probably for the umpteenth time), I have known three self made millionaires, two of them were builders, who made their wealth via govt borrowing-to-spend policies, these builders winning contracts to build LA housing estates.
Then there has been those very large civil engineering contractors benefited from govt infrastructure projects to build our Motorway network or nuclear power stations for example – and why did govt do this, because they can borrow more cheaply, over a longer time period, than any commercial loan.
All the above had a very real trickle-down effect, even the lowest site labours being paid a decent wage and thus spending decent money, that then gave work to more UK factory operatives, boosting the UK economy and raising the amount of tax HMRC receives.
July 9, 2020
At the margins maybe on an infrastructure project that actually benefits the economy. But how many do? HS2? Many will be investments on which measurable returns will be difficult or impossible to calculate or rely on economists’ guesswork. I do not doubt your report of people who became millionaires by supplying government with goods and services. There are consultants who make a good living out of the billions spent on the Aid budget. Much of it is a diversion of resources into unproductive investments.
July 9, 2020
Well that is my health ruined for I will not forego the chance of £10 off a meal I do not need.
Your proposal to cut VAT on green products (including solar panels) has very disappointingly not been taken up whilst subsidies for yesterday’s remedies of double glazing and wall insulation have been.
July 9, 2020
Well said and a classic example of the Treasury being out of touch. JR was absolutely correct and if VAT had been cut on solar panels and they included in the grant scheme I would have joined.
As it is insulation, re-glazing etc who needs them. Will they be subsidising gas boilers that are to be phased out?
July 10, 2020
The insulation subsidies have been available for years, I’d be surprised if there are many more properties that haven’t already benefited. Sounds like they will waste more money administering this than they actually spend on genuine improvements.
July 9, 2020
Well he had to do something so let’s see. Completely misses the point on hospitality. It is not a rather pathetic few bob off that will get me back. It certainly doesn’t outweigh the risk.
As for the apprenticeships/£1000 employee retention. Apprenticeships, the usual treasury response, little value, will merely give big companies who are looking to hire anyway, a subsidy and will just mean an older worker needing the job won’t get it. 6 months apprenticeships, not worth the paper they are written on, bureaucratic and will benefit the organisations that get the delivery contracts.
Maybe the grants will help but narrow, no doubt inefficient and bureaucratic and again linked to the obsession with green.
Nothing for small business and strange thinking that any organisation will take on people who are not heeded at say annual cost £20/25k in return for £1/9k.
Stamp duty, again very narrow but the eye catcher. Obviously mainly political. Will do little for the wider economy.
Good intentions but typical narrow treasury thinking not understanding the real world.
You need a big demand side boost. An explosion of tax cuts, VAT across the board, reduce NI and all anti employment regulations that are imposed. Slash some big government budgets and put it back in out pockets and let the private sector do what it always does. Pull you out of the mire.
For me all smoke and no bang.
July 9, 2020
Many businesses made small profits. Low interest rates kept many “zombie” companies alive.
The Government had squeezed them with stealth taxes and red tape until they could just about make enough profit to get buy.
The corona virus “rules” now mean many companies will not make a profit. For example train companies revenue is now being paid for by the Government. Hairdressers work 8 till 8 3 or 4 days a week. Both of which are not sustainable in the medium to long term.
It’s the face-2-face companies that will not survive, yet it’s the face-2-face companies that are the ones that can’t be outsourced. I heard 60% of a US bank female employees said they would resign if forced to go back to work 5 days a week. So once all those employees work from home what’s to stop the company outsourcing service jobs around the world.
It’s not that covid will cause the deflation of the UK economy it’s that once working from home has been going on for a year directors are going to realise that London office work is no longer the best option for their business.
July 9, 2020
Or maybe they will stop be grateful to staff for continuing to work at a reasonable level from home and expect them to work at the proper level in the office.
There is little innovation and collaboration at home and video conferencing is sterile.
July 9, 2020
Good morning.
Wherever there is free (sic) government cash, fraud will not be far behind. How many people will apply for grants to non-existent companies for thing that will never be delivered / installed but cash just handed out ?
It would have been better to follow my idea and let card (eg nectar) companies do a top up scheme or time limited vouchers.
Ho-hum !
July 9, 2020
Under this new modern measure everything government I look forward the the KPIs on these projects and performance updates. I am not holding my breath.
July 9, 2020
I would be far more complimentary about the package if it hadn’t come after the dispensing of a mountain of cash already to tackle an economic/public health crisis brought on by a failure to quarantine the country and put us into lockdown sooner. But we are, where we are.
About the measures:
(1) Very pleased about the VAT reduction for the Hospitality industry. I won’t expect price reductions for the consumer; businesses should keep the money and shore up their cash positions.
(2) The EOTHO scheme might be unnecessary, or might be brilliant. I’m not sure which – but it will probably be a good nudge for the public. Arguably, it could be shifted left into late July. I’ll claim my voucher but I had already decided on my own EOTHO support for the industry by dining out on a weekly basis. An advertising campaign, by the industry, might have achieved the same effect at less cost.
(3) The support for homes insulation looks destined to do two things. First, it will bump up prices. Second, it will line the pockets of fraudsters and rogue traders. Maintenance of homes is the responsibility of the home-owner, not the state.
(4) There was nothing for the Aviation industry. The key to getting the airlines moving again – beyond defeating the virus here – is, I think, at-airport health measures. I see little evidence that Mr Shapps is doing anything much in that regard.
(5) Sunak has shown little aptitude for anything other than dispensing hundreds of billions of borrowed pounds. Sooner or later, he will have to start acting like a Conservative again.
(6) The PM’s decisiveness in dispensing hundreds of billions of borrowed pounds contrasts markedly with the lack of decisiveness he showed in January-March. The buck stops with him and I want his resignation as soon as the Brexit Transition is over.
(7) I’ll now get on with some share-related corporate action voting. If any directors up for re-election strike me as being like either Johnson or Sunak then they can expect a big ‘X’ in the ‘Against’ box.
July 9, 2020
+1 for point 6 especially.
July 9, 2020
And while we slosh all this magic money about there is talk of trashing the armed forces again.
Plenty of money for Brussels and overseas aid but none to protect ourselves in these turbulent times.
July 9, 2020
Exactly. And despicably after all they’ve done, apparently they’re going to start charging NHS staff hundreds of pounds a month again to park after suspending it during the crisis. Some dopey hapless patronising Minister’s excuse on Politics Live yesterday said they need to be encouraged to use public transport more despite most hospitals being out of town and them working shift hours. No doubt the Minister was dropped off in his taxpayer funded limousine.
But the biggest insult in all this is these charges are totally free for staff and patients in Scotland, Wales & NI, yet another freebie courtesy of the generosity of anti-English UK Governments and the skewed Barnett Formula. Isn’t it bad enough that our Doctors and Nurses in England come out with much less in their pay packets at the end of the month than their devolved nations peers thanks to the blatant higher education discrimination against them?
If this charge is re-introduced, expect a huge backlash from the public John.
July 9, 2020
Too sensible and too obvious for this Government to countenance. The solution has always to be of an order of complexity, tortuous reasoning, and obfuscation that is beyond the reason of the voter. Only the ‘elite’ will be able to ‘understand’ such matters, didn’t you know?
Deep State stuff maybe?
July 9, 2020
Ian Wragg – “trashing the armed forces again”. Yes, it’s unbelievable, isn’t it? Or rather it’s all too believable given the priorities of this government. You’d think that even this government would realise decimating the Army in a time of rising unemployment is counterproductive.
July 9, 2020
So we have “Eat-out to help-out” August, well Monday to Wednesday at least, “Back to School” September – ‘Return of the Grim Reaper’ October? I sincerity hope not.
All the Govt needed to do, if they wanted to boost the economy, was a general cut in VAT, or just target something like the more major home improvement products, Kitchens, bathrooms and conservatories for example, the sort of projects that gives work to small and sole-trader builders, but once again the vestige interests of the green Ponzi scam gets the helicopter money, nice work for the few, bung some rolls of fibreglass insulation into someone’s loft (even if they don’t need it), get paid as if the the property has been rebuilt.
Sorry but the Summer Economic Statement was just gimmick and gesture “do something-do anything” politics, let’s hope the Autumn Budget will be a better statement of intent, and which includes measures to take effect from 1st Jan 2021.
July 10, 2020
+1.
July 9, 2020
The huge danger is, of course, inflation.
People round here are beginning to ask questions too. We are beginning to like our current way of life. More relaxed. Not so desperate. Not so much rushing around for the sake of it. My grown up grandchildren are desperate to get going on their careers though – this is not laziness. People are resigned, nicer, more tranquil.
Protestant work ethic? I do not know if it is still there.
What has happened is that now we appreciate the people who do service for us often at personal risk. Nurses get far more respect than Managers.
July 9, 2020
Though the life expectancy of those in routine customer service operations is about 1 year lower than those in the caring professions.
July 9, 2020
The plan seems a good effort to be positive. It won’t be perfect and no doubt will need some fine tuning on the way. I would have liked to see something more positive re the car industry but that it seems awaits the realisation that previous statements that have done so much damage are not the answer. Let us see the overall effect during the next three months and then some consolidation in the autumn budget. In the latter I wish to see much more that makes the UK a good place to invest and for business as a whole to take advantage of being free the shackles of the EU.
July 9, 2020
Cutting stamp duty on house purchases will result in house prices increasing and quickly eliminate any benefit to purchasers – that’s how markets work, prices will adjust to the highest level purchasers can afford and if they don’t have to pay stamp duty they can afford more. All it achieves is a reduction in government revenue. By a similar token VAT cuts won’t be passed on to the buyers – but this may be intended to boost hospitality owners income ?
July 9, 2020
+1
July 9, 2020
@Roy Grainger – “… but this may be intended to boost hospitality owners income”
….. or reduce their losses.
July 9, 2020
Spot on regarding stamp duty. They should have put it up to 10%. House prices would fall to accommodate it.
July 9, 2020
Mike W, House prices will fall if there is greater supply, or lower demand. There are better ways to lower demand than putting up taxes.
July 10, 2020
That old rubbish again.
Everyone tries to live in the best place possible. Demand is in principle always infinite.
Prices are always the very maximum that can be afforded, so lax credit, tax relief, and low interest always fuel a bubble.
Always.
July 10, 2020
The concepts of supply and demand are not “rubbish”, they are basic economics. They apply to houses as much to other goods.
July 9, 2020
House prices will not fall, the % of the price paid that will revert to the ‘owner’ would be 90% while the Government will have sequestrated 10% of the value of all housing in the U.K., in perpetuity – because when the owner sells the house he relinquishes ownership but the Govt. will take it’s 10% and retain 10%. So having you cake and eating it.
July 9, 2020
The problem is that with the incomes of so many under threat from unemployment there will be a significant number who are looking to decrease their housing costs, and not many looking to buy while prices are falling. Transaction levels fall through the floor, as the SDLT receipts going back to 2008 in this chart show:
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/4KThF/1/
July 9, 2020
Absolutely correct.
And the corollary of your post is that high house prices are caused by laxity of lending, low interest rates, and deposit-free terms.
They are not greatly affected by numerical demand – people always want the best possible home – whether that be from immigration or from home growth.
July 10, 2020
Don’t be silly, Martin. You can see that you’re wrong by observing the fact that identical houses in different parts of the country are at different prices – eg: a 3 bed semi might be £500k near London, and £100k in Newcastle. Different demand causes different prices even under identical lending and interest rate conditions.
July 10, 2020
It is local market outlook which largely fixes the different prices.
July 10, 2020
Outlook….you really mean supply and demand.
But I realise it is a concept you socialists do not understand.
July 9, 2020
If the government took 50% of your house, as they have taken up to 15%, that means that you get only 50% of what the buyer can pay. The buyer can’t ‘find’ extra money.
July 9, 2020
My business figures are ,after the last three months, 40% better than the last fives years.We have been in business eighteen years. I man the office and the three staff work from home being able to access the companies server. I have had the virus back in January. The after affects are holding me back. But hey ho .
July 9, 2020
The Government slogan was ‘Stay Alert’ and ‘Stay at Home’. I know things are changing but I’m still alert to spending my meager pension on non-essential items I think I will hold back in case the recession gets worse. Non-essential as defined by the Govt. as they are being the last to be re-opened. Be alert and be prepared.
July 9, 2020
The Chancellor is spending as if there is no tomorrow. But the one lesson from the lock- down is that working habits are going to change – more ‘Zoom’ and less travelling for meetings. He should kill HS2 NOW and release £100 billion for more worthwhile things. HS2 is now, as never before, a white elephant. It will be probably known as Theresa May’s ‘Folly’. I don’t want it known as Boris’s folly!
July 9, 2020
Agreed, building HS2 is even more daft now than it was when it was first mooted, I half suspect the real rational behind HS2 is to move much of Whitehall out of Central London to the Midlands and North – HS2 being the UK equivalent to those USSR ZiL lanes but without the gridlock!
Why so few intermediate stations on HS2, unlike say the French TGV system, not that ever train stop at all stations, for those that do they simply have platforms on loop lines.
July 9, 2020
I think the PM wants to do HS2 to create employment and use British steel. Ditto with the bridges.
July 9, 2020
+1
July 9, 2020
+1 – he should also kill all subsidies for renewables, green crap and electric cars and let them compete fairly in the market. Also a cull of daft university courses and soft loans. Tax cuts, fewer bureaucrats, fewer parasites and a bonfire or red tape is all that is needed.
July 9, 2020
I agree – but Boris is too fond of his grand projets to cancel it. Few people have a need to whizz around the country; many more have a wish for a better commute each morning and evening. HS2 should be cancelled and the original budget (ca. £40 bn) used to improve journeys lasting less than an hour.
July 10, 2020
+1. HS2 is vanity. Who needs it except for the contractors and consultants building it?
July 9, 2020
Cancel foreign aid too, until the country is back into surplus.
He should balance the books by making benefits and pensions variable, paid out of money after the bills for health, education, defence and law and order have been met, as well as a little bit taken off the national debt.
I know pensioners paid national insurance during their working lives, but they also voted in borrow and spend governments during that time. Time to pay it back.
July 9, 2020
Foreign Aid should be a % of surplus (the Govt equivalent of ‘profit’) not GDP or turnover. The Govt has huge turnover and makes a loss on it – so less turnover the less loss.
Less is More!
July 10, 2020
Now thats an interesting idea and one I endorse
July 9, 2020
Agreed, Colin. Total madness.
July 9, 2020
@ColinD.
+1
July 9, 2020
It was George Osborne’s Vanity Project. You remember Gideon liked projects, his most infamous besides HS2 being Project Fear
July 9, 2020
Borrowing is taken to extreme. How can four months of previous inactivity be borrowed? That time has gone. The notion of recovering it will be uncovered when the debt remains unpaid.
July 9, 2020
@Adam; How could six years of wartime spending be borrowed, and on the back of depression years borrowing. How long did it take the UK to pay back our wartime loans, ‘Never having it so good’ whilst doing so, our problems came with trying to be to miserly.
Stop being so parochial!
July 9, 2020
We are told HMG has blown 10 billion on a test and trace system that doesn’t work, so obviously contributing to the mess we are in, maybe even unnecessary deaths. And you think giving us some eating and drinking vouchers is sensible?
Loyalty is one thing, hubris another.
July 9, 2020
Did you mean ‘million’? I don’t recognise the ’10 billion’ figure.
July 9, 2020
Who’s paying for the 24,000 staff recently employed for track and trace ?
July 9, 2020
love it …. a failed track and trace, or 3 aircraft carriers. Take your pick?
July 9, 2020
Since my post of 8.06 I have found your source, so I stand corrected and shame-faced. Something to look into. It defies belief that the government could splash that amount on a call-centre or two.
July 9, 2020
The furlough scheme was a big mistake and will only prolong zombie jobs for a short time. The virus has accelerated the shift to the digital economy which was happening already. It would have been much better to cut taxes and regulations to give us maximum competitiveness and flexibility.
July 9, 2020
Most of these zombie jobs will come back within 12 months – a few will not. It would have been far better to have 50% furlough but allow them to work where possible too as the self employed could on their scheme.
July 9, 2020
The public sector jobs will all return however its the private sector jobs we should be concerned with
July 9, 2020
Anyone furloughed could take another job – they just could not work for the company paying them.
People have always been able to work multiple jobs.
July 9, 2020
Yes because helping business and boosting tourism is certainly what making loads of absurd and scientifically pointless social distancing regulations will do. What about a recognition that this government and parliament has done more damage in a shorter time than any war in history has managed? Be it fear, stupidity, personal gain or corruption that motivated the political, bureaucratic and media class that is what has happened and I, and many others, will never forget it.
July 9, 2020
Excellent, Michael.
Our pensions, savings and health service have been damaged beyond repair. More debt, more inflation – this will not be a country in which to grow old.
July 9, 2020
The Covid, Government and NHS have done well to see that we don’t have a country to grow old in!
July 9, 2020
Michael,
I agree the situation is largely self-made. How any Govt, opposition and media could believe switching off an economy for several months was a good idea is a good question. I have not seen a calculation from Govt that shows that even the CV19 reasonable worst case (several hundred thousand extra deaths) is worse than the effects of switching off the economy on quality life years lost.
July 9, 2020
John, the key to recovery is a successful Brexit. We now find Liz Truss leaking Project Fear nonsense about lack of preparedness. Sack her NOW! Only people who believe in Brexit need apply. We are British and we will be ready
Reply Liz Truss is trying to secure a complete Brexit at the end of the year! She is doing the right things.
July 9, 2020
Well replied. This says more about the DTs agenda and the Remainers that are leaking to it.
July 9, 2020
“Successful brexit”?
That’s like “beneficial mutilation”, “helpful assault”, “therapeutic poisoning”, and other such nonsensical pairings.
But yes, I’m sure that the Government will produce a complete and utter brexit.
July 9, 2020
Nonsensical pairings?
I give you ‘angelic Chinese’.
‘practical opposition’.
‘debating chamber’.
‘Civil servant’.
July 10, 2020
This will before too long enter football commentatorese, I think, as in “ooh, I thought he was going to score, but he’s made a total brexit of it, Gary”
July 10, 2020
Martin, Is there any actual reason why you think the UK is incapable of being independent where Kenya, India, and Australia (all ex-colonies of the British Empire) are?
July 10, 2020
The reason Nick, is that Martin want socialism to be implemented in Europe and the UK.
The EU is drifting steadily towards that dreadful future.
So leaving the EU is not what he wants.
He knows an independent UK will not vote for socialism.
July 9, 2020
More schemes more complication in the small print, and probably a wait for any money due to be paid out.
Simply lower Vat immediately to 10% across the board for two years, and down to Zero on all home improvements.
On Stamp duty, halve all of the rates for 2 years, or just have one rate for all properties, no matter the value.
We want simple to understand actions across all businesses, not a complicated pick and choose with small print rules for a very short limited period.
July 9, 2020
Just abolish it. Turnover taxes are a very damaging way to tax. Just take a fair share of income and profits. 20% of that is more than enough to run the rather few things government can do better than individuals. (It would be 20% of a few larger GDP of course). Create a Hong Kong type of system here – without the appalling threat from China that they suffer under.
July 9, 2020
As we created the ‘Hong Kong’ system, bringing it here should be easy?
July 9, 2020
The most amusing reaction to the Chancellor’s woeful package came from Tory Brexit pensioner Edward Leigh.
In Parliament Mr Leigh said: “There are no good, long-term subsidised jobs.”
Mr Leigh has been the MP for a safe Tory seat for 37 years. He gets paid £80,000 a year to do it.
That is a pretty good long-term subsidised job that he has.
Perhaps he can retire and let a young person do it instead?
July 9, 2020
I thought £80k was peanuts to you, Andy? And I recall you saying you were willing to pay higher taxes (some of which would inevitably go to workers like Mr Leigh). And only you could make such an issue of someone’s age rather than his work capability.
July 9, 2020
you’d like a safe Tory seat?
July 9, 2020
Andy – The European Union has since 2000 a directive banning – among others – discrimination on the basis of age in employment and occupation.
July 9, 2020
Completely agree. I would sum this up as yet more red tape and admin. Instead of vouchers and paying hiring costs, how about reducing the overheads?
Reduce VAT and even if the prices in the shops don’t drop for consumers, conmpanies will be in a better position to reinvest and survive – and therefore hire people. If the prices do drop, then people can spend more.
As for the £10 vouchers, people without jobs, those on low incomes, inside due to health conditions, or many of those working from home, won’t be using these because even at half price, eating out is expensive. In fact it seems to be more of a boost to the public sector whose jobs are safely secure and can therefore afford luxuries like that.
July 9, 2020
Fine words and a true statement
July 9, 2020
It’s a relief that the ‘green recovery’ so far at least, has only amounted to home improvement grants which aim for energy efficiency which we can all welcome. If you and your colleagues could press for continued discussion of the merits of energy efficiency and security as the energy policy priority, that would give us optimism. Let’s all do our bit in our local economies and go out and spend to support local businesses. Those of us who have stayed in work have a duty to do as much as we can.
July 9, 2020
Misguided “green” policies are hugely damaging and job destroying.
July 9, 2020
I agree but a visit to the pub is now a chore and any spontaneity.
The vast majority will be bust if this continues any longer.
July 9, 2020
We should never welcome wasteful spending that is uneconomic. Like £100m on sucking air through a system designed to remove an utterly trivial amount of CO2 from the atmosphere at a cost said to be around $600 per tonne. Or insulation projects with absurdly long payback periods on even optimistic assumptions that probably cause more costly damage than the value of the energy they save. Grenfell Tower is perhaps an extreme example, but taking yesterday’s Treasury numbers spending £10,000 to save £600 a year (the cases that can manage to save so much for spending so little will be very few indeed) is nearly 17 years payback before financing costs. Now factor in dealing with a condensation problem.
July 9, 2020
How much home insulation do we need, the government(s) have been funding schemes since the 1980s……by now every home should’ve been insulated twice over
For every home insulated the energy companies will rise the cost
July 9, 2020
I would suggest trees as being cheaper – but the eco loons operating within No 10 would then insist on turning them into pellets, to feed Drax. Is it too much to hope that some Accounting Officer will call out the sucking project for the waste of money that it is?
July 9, 2020
The package will probably help a bit – but it’s hardly a solid plan. It just picks a few headline areas, but there is nothing there to create a fundamental stimulus for the whole economy.
If we are forced into another lock-down the measures will be worthless.
Now surely is the time to plan for the future — HOW are we going to avoid another lock-down? What are the real priorities in our life that need to be most protected/funded.
It is time for a fundamental, soul searching, review of what is wrong with the way things are run currently – and there are many! — How can we make things better, easier to tun, less expensive, but more rewarding?
July 9, 2020
Another lockdown or a serious second wave looks rather unlikely to me. Deaths currently below the 5 year average for the UK. Survival rates improving significantly too.
July 9, 2020
Statistics can be made to show anything desired. There have been local lock-downs in Germany and elsewhere. The rules are elastic in nature, so it would be easy for panic to set in, and have a national emergency declared, again.
There are still £millions tied up in vaccinations and chip passports that those keen to keep us locked down want to see utilised.
July 9, 2020
Welcome to the right side of that argument!
July 9, 2020
I don’t see any way to avoid another lockdown when the world is allowed in unchecked for yet more disease to arrive. Anyone wanting to come just goes from a country that is not on the list to come here, to another that is clear to fly here – then just flies in no problem. And the ferry service from Calais to Dover rolls on.
July 9, 2020
Simple, you stop voting for neo-liberal politicians. Hence, you will stop government of the 99%, by the 1%, for the 1%.
July 9, 2020
Got any suggestions of who to actually vote for?
July 9, 2020
We really should start vetting would be MP’s to avoid filling the House with those that hate the country and what the country stands for, as well as the true people of this country.
July 9, 2020
Byan
+1
Well said Sir !
July 9, 2020
The Constituency Party selection committees did a great job, they had a free choice too – not Hobson’s Choice from a Party list. Let’s go back to that, but all Candidates need to pass and examination on our Constitution – many don’t know we have one! 😂😂
July 9, 2020
Acorn, Your definition of “neo-liberal” appears somewhat elastic, if not non-existent. Certainly our current and recent governments have been more corporatist and neo-marxist than neo-liberal.
July 10, 2020
That’s a very confused paragraph. I suspect you don’t understand all three of those ideologies.
July 10, 2020
Acorn, Hmmm, there was me suspecting the same of you. It is marxism where the 99% are governed for the benefit of the 1%, not neo-liberalism.
July 10, 2020
Evidence?
No, you never do have any, do you?
July 10, 2020
You think the EU is neo-liberal??
July 9, 2020
Nobody can operate longterm businesses based on the State implementing willy billy short term bandaid. Does the Chancellor and First Lord of the Treasury not understand that business decisions are based on gearing and risk weighed against chances of success. Now we have to achieve that success within a false window, while the tax is temporarily reduced, it’s like borrowing money on a 0% interest credit card where the interest shops up to 28% after the ‘holiday’.
The Government MUST provide a stable, long term, low interest and even lower state interference platform for millions of business people to make complex decisions which will result in economic success. Economic success, Andy, means we can fund the vulnerable and young.
VAT threshold must be doubled at least, rate dropped by half at least, CGT brought in alignment with that offered to non-residents ie calculated from an April 2019 base. All income, NIC and other taxes paid must be amalgamated so working people can see what they pay – and the politicians can see too and repent! Most actions are required to enlighten politicians!
Taxes on all energy must be slashed and an ‘opt-in’ if you want to receive and pay for ‘green energy’ – let’s test its popularity.
Employing people must be less of a punishment if you want to avoid mass unemployment.
The police must police and keep our streets safe and clear for business, else there must be a lot of reorganisation in that sector. The Government has a duty to its citizens!
The NHS budget should be halved with all involuntary diseases treated free of charge, but anything arising from self-harm or to do with sex changes etc must be available privately funded if the private sector sees fit to offer those services.
The State sector must be halved, releasing people into the wealth creating sector.
July 9, 2020
Everything you’ve written should be a ‘forward’ in any Tory policy booklet
However as I read your words I know not one of your points will be undertaken by this government
July 9, 2020
No it will only be implemented by a Tory Government, we should try it, it could prove popular!
July 10, 2020
not just popular but what the voters expected
July 9, 2020
The Chancellor’s job was to inject some economic positivity using political and monetary means where possible. I think he achieved this despite the opposition’s pre-mediated response. (Did the shadow Chancellor and the SNP respondent even listen to the speech?)
He pulled some levers but I don’t think that any of the incentives encourage more employment, they might change the decision from an immigrant worker to a young worker (which is good) but I think that unlikely. Business values experience over £1,000.
The measures, like the furlough scheme, encourage fraud among those so minded. HMRC needs to be ever more vigilant with our money.
I would like to have heard that he was going to print the money and not borrow it. Borrowed money attracts interest and needs to be repaid, printed money does not. There is little demand so printing does not risk inflation at this time. Measures to reign in M0 later can be used.
By borrowing you can be sure that middle earning PAYE serfs will get clobbered at some point to make it look like we are paying down debt.
July 9, 2020
I am in Cornwall. The abnormal is really sad to see. Many shops closed. The great surge never happened. Roads clear of traffic. Easy to park. Shop owners desperate for customers but largely empty. Holidaymakers are not going out. Coffee shops and eateries afraid they’ll soon be closing again forever. No one wants to be tracked and traced. No one wants to be sanitised and treated like a leper. The only way to lift us out of this despair and depression is to end all this madness immediately and return to the normal normal. Shield the vulnerable and those who are afraid to venture out can stay at home.
July 9, 2020
Don’t worry we still have HS2
That bright light in our economy that will save Britain, stop the 2nd wave, ensure full employment and a green future
Thank god we and our brave cabinet kept on tract with HS2
July 9, 2020
to avoid track and trace? Don’t take your mobile out with you.!
July 9, 2020
The problem is, that for some reason many people do not trust the Government. So when they are told that some things are fairly safe, they are, very strangely, not particularly reassured by that. Surveys show that about two thirds of pub users will not be returning in the near future, for instance.
So they could lift all the restrictions, and trade would be nothing like what you call normal.
Yes, it is sad, but that’s what happens when you do not built trust with the public by clarity, transparency, reliability, effectiveness, and all the other things that have been shown in the now many countries which have stamped out their epidemics, at least for practical purposes.
July 10, 2020
Martin, Is this like the trust you have in the Chinese communist party?
July 9, 2020
If repayments are made at the same rate as our war debt to the Americans this will not be paid down until the 27th century.
So. A second spike in the autumn and we do lockdown all over again ? Just magic up another £190bn ? I think we know this can’t be done again.
What will cause mass unemployment is social distancing. No amount of money is going to get us out of this problem so long as there is social distancing (see Zimbabwe on money printing.)
The vast majority of people are unaffected by this disease and we now have a very good idea of those that are and more often than not they are economically inactive and relatively easy to look after.
Already the care home industry is saying that we need to open up immigration to the EU again for staff – at a time when our own people are going to be desperate for work.
July 9, 2020
Immigration is open with a predicted 7,500 estimate illegals arrivals by small boat across the channel this year
Staffing issues sorted…..another successful government policy
July 9, 2020
Vote Leave!!!!!
Oh, er, um, er…
July 10, 2020
Another silly post from you.
We can’t do much effectively about illegal immigration until we have left the EU.
July 10, 2020
Why’s that, then?
The UK HAS left the European Union!
July 10, 2020
Not until 31st December
Come on Martin keep up.
July 9, 2020
We need to check how much the care home industry chiefs are making, they charge extortionate rates per week but want to recruit minimum wage workers, if more men worked in care they wouldn’t get away with this, women are their own worse enemies. Although some more public sector care providers do pay £10.50 per hour minimum plus out of hours enhancements, better pension deals and other perks and benefits.
July 9, 2020
Anon
“If repayments are made at the same rate as our war debt to the Americans this will not be paid down until the 27th century.”
Solution: make China pay for it.
July 9, 2020
If we are forced into another lock-down
>
by WHO?
July 9, 2020
What are the real priorities in our life that need to be most protected
>
Liberty and freedom
July 9, 2020
Yes, but these things must be approached with balance.
For instance, some people – a few – would wage civil war to be rid of 20mph zones, or of little rings of stars on their car number plates.
But those are not normal, balanced people.
July 9, 2020
MiC
So whom would you regard as normal balanced people ?
July 9, 2020
Not people who would commit murder just to end 20mph speed limits for starters.
July 9, 2020
jerry, Andy, MH and some fella called Martin who isn’t Welsh but lives there.
July 10, 2020
And then there’s some who would wage civil war to ensure that we were subjugated to the EU empire.
July 9, 2020
We are told HMG has blown 10 billion on a test and trace system that doesn’t work
>
Wow, makes the amount John saved us at Welsh Secretary pale into insignificance.
Shall we just forget the entire track and trace idea, please?
July 9, 2020
If the £10 billion figure is correct then here’s a question: why is the system costing as much as the British Army to run?
July 9, 2020
someone has take their eye of the ball
July 10, 2020
The entire idea, as in a sufficiently comprehensive and detailed system to be effective was forgotten right at the start, ed2.
The current activity is merely nominal.
July 9, 2020
What has JR never been chancellor? We all know he was the man for the job.
July 9, 2020
Once he’s stopped blushing in pride – I agree with you, BTW – I hope he will note the bubbling hatred from CONSERVATIVE VOTERS on this site, brought on by the incompetence and profligacy of the Johnson government.
July 10, 2020
There’s a type of person addicted to anger and to hatred.
If there are no reasons for that, then they imagine them, or believe any false claim as to their existence.
It’s what gave us a Leave vote.
You need to recognise your fundamental, personal problem.
July 10, 2020
‘There’s a type of person addicted to anger and to hatred.’
Yes, I agree Andy does spring to mind.
July 9, 2020
Let us hope his advice is taken.
July 9, 2020
+1. Really he is the only one. Or First Lord of the Treasury. Can’t see us getting out of this hole any other way.
July 9, 2020
This was very selective in terms of who it helps and who it doesn’t.
Offering discounts on meals Mondays to Wednesdays was a gimmick worthy of a fast food chain but not of a responsible, impartial government.
I’m sure the irony of the Chancellor’s statement “We wouldn’t have lifted the restrictions if we didn’t think we could do so safely” whilst the government retains all its emergency powers will not be lost on people.
It would have been nice to have seen some reductions in red tape for small businesses, but I suppose we shall have to wait for a Conservative government before we get that.
July 9, 2020
It feels like a baby step to economic recovery; which it probably is as I do not belive the marathon can begin until we have left the EU Transition Period. Personally, we will take advantage of what we can to both help our local economy and also to start working on our own future.
2020 has made us feel unsafe – the UK no longer cares about our wellbeing physical or mental. The NHS and public services are in a dire state; greed has been allowed to run rife in many places with tragic consequences in Care Homes ; now we see clearly that we are second class citizens in law because of our skin colour and not only that everything is our fault simply because of this immutable characteristic. The Equality Act is not worth the paper it is written on – for us.
I wish the Chancellor well, I hope he has more fulsome plans for the end of 2020 ready for 2021. I don’t really need a free meal, but I would rather like my freedom of thought, speech and action back !!
July 9, 2020
Amanda, Very good and thoughtful.
July 9, 2020
Most of the measures are in effect tax rebates to businesses which is a good thing.
Longer term – beginning with the budget – we need bold and radical moves to make sure there is a relentless focus on competitiveness and making the U.K. the destination of choice for entrepreneurs and investors. Accelerate capital allowances, radically reform and de-regulate the planning system, cut punitive virtue signalling tax rates like 15% stamp duty, 47% income tax. There will be howling and screaming from the left about ‘tax cuts for the rich’ on every measure. 4 years to the next election and 6 months to trading on WTO terms with the EU. No time to waste. No money and no time for virtue signalling gestures. Every measure needs to be tested against the question: does this make the U.K. a better place for business and investment.
July 9, 2020
Rishi should have removed Stamp duty to a much higher level. This tax, payable out of already taxed income, is iniquitous. Double taxation is legal theft. It harms, and many times prevents, labour mobility.
July 9, 2020
This is our opportunity to comment on the state of repair of grandma’s priceless, irreplaceable, wantonly shattered vase and to put forward suggestions as to what to do about replacing the forever lost pieces.
Um..my only suggestion. Let’s all go GREEN. Suck up all the nasty CO2 in a spiffing machine…that’ll put it all back together again.
We have a govt. that believes in fairy stories.
July 9, 2020
+1
July 9, 2020
This budget reflects the Chancellor’s dilemma of investment in long term infrastructure (which would not move things too quickly and widespread) versus the fire need to fire up as many mini projects as possible in the short term, nay immediately to get things moving. It fits the narrative of preventive maintenance fixing the roof etc whilst generating vital incentives for growth directly and trickle down to other sectors (the bureaucrats who administer the schemes) and sadly the inevitable dreaded fraudsters who will exploit this.
However many will miss out and be disappointed so the Chancellor cannot win but the Magic Money trees will require either fracking or discovering gold etc. We need to start teaching children how to survive with old fashioned practical subjects at school to build real world confidence in things that never go out of fashion. Bring back Apprenticeship etc. After all of it was good for Rolls Royce why not? The young persons £1000 seems ok but I fear it may be just blown away by many, seen as confetti ….
July 9, 2020
A little more money in boosting the Jobcentre Plus model is more waste. This inefficient ,outdated, socialistic eddifice is beyond redemption.It mixes harassing the desperate unemployed unemployable with those enthusiastically surfing through life on benefits. It pretends to offer employment opportunities; which equate to ‘dumpster diving’ behind supermarkets and is neither of use to job seekers or prospective employers.A lowest common denominator in all respects. What serious advice wuld one get from those who choose to work there themselves?
Serious attention to promoting the online portals of major employment agencies and cv libraries would deliver a service of greater effectiveness. Simply providing free internet connectivity to such sites would be positive if coupled with assisted application for the educationally challenged.
The date protection aspects of current GDPR needs to be revised to permit and encourage the widespread ability to search /research CVs of prospective employees and engage in personnel selection in the manner of head-hunting, but restricted to those seeking new employment.
July 9, 2020
Sir John, the measures announced may help a little but the best thing that the government could do would be to scrap all social distancing guidelines and laws, remind people that the risk of CV19 is very, very low for the vast majority and try to get people back to normal life. A 10 quid meal voucher is more of a gimmick. Far better to let pub and restaurant owners provide an enjoyable drinking and dining experience once more, that would get people to come back and spend. Many other sectors have been devastated by the lockdown and associated measures. Companies that supply consumables to the NHS (apart from PPE) have been wiped out as routine procedures have been deferred and it is expected to take 18 months to return to normal as new sanitization procedures have slashed theatre capacity. Hip replacements waiting lists are now expected to be 4-5 years for example. The travel industry has been ruined. Live sports, live music, cinema etc. are all still praying for this to be over. Just changing these restrictive laws and changing the message would give a much bigger boost than a slightly cheaper pint at the pub for a few months.
July 9, 2020
Scrapping social distancing will do more to help hospitality business to survive than everything else. They need customers with money in their pockets. SWATHING TAX CUTS REQUIRED ALL ROUND.
July 9, 2020
Some common sense at last.
Thank you, villaking.
July 9, 2020
I just thought I’d pass on this comment from a non-politically minded friend:
The government seems more intent on getting us out boozing, shopping and eating Big Macs than educating the next generation.
A little unfair, I thought, but I’m sure it’s typical of what many people are thinking.
July 9, 2020
In fairness to the government, our teenagers have shown precious little interest in educating themselves over the past three months.
July 9, 2020
Each generation’s teenagers, given the gaming machines, would have been exactly the same!
July 9, 2020
The unfortunate truth is that the government has dug themselves into a huge hole that they just can’t get out of. They told us to lockdown, stay safe and closed the economy. Four months have passed and they know this virus is no more serious than a bad flu season, it is safe for the majority of the population to carry on a normal life but they can’t come clean and tell us to get on with it….for their political futures they have to persist with stay alert etc.. They fear that if they did come clean everybody would be asking – So are you saying we didn’t really need to lockdown and totally trash the economy?
While this self protection continues the economy stays on pause. We need some leadership from Boris, it’s time to come clean, give the public the facts so we can get on with trying to save the country.
July 9, 2020
+1
July 9, 2020
I have known three people who *think* they may have had CV19 and got over it with self treatment.
I have known one person die…. aged 56, excellent shape and in good health otherwise, waiting for surgery denied by lockdown.
So.
If there is a spike in autumn will we be going for full lockdown again ?
No. Of course not.
So why did we do the first for so long then ?
July 9, 2020
The person who died aged 56 was killed by lockdown, not CV19.
I have not know any person who has died of CV 19.
July 9, 2020
Have you been fast asleep for five months?
July 9, 2020
because we didn’t have the bottle not too
July 9, 2020
This is exactly their dilemma. How do they extricate themselves? By blaming ‘the scientists – Ferguson who did not believe his own advice’.
July 9, 2020
Yes, stupid, cowardly and self-interested politicians are the problem – they have overseen the ruination of our nation.
July 9, 2020
All very gimmicky.
I would have preferred a long term cut in all stamp duty, with a review after say a couple of years – all the ‘holiday’ will do is distort the market, everyone selling will hold out for a higher price and there will be a bit of a rush on. Then what? He’ll have to distort it all over again.
As for the £10 off a meal out, nonsense. I may be cruel but eating out is not a strategic industry. Restaurants can fairly quickly reopen after shutdown, how many are truly profitable and efficient anyway?
Clearly there is no view in government on virus and its effects. Hoping for the best.
And I’m worried about how is the money to be paid back but maybe I shouldn’t. It doesn’t seem to bother go ernment.
July 9, 2020
The average meal out in Northumberland pans out at about £60 per head. The £10 is irrelevant! Restaurants need to fill every seat (that’s why they have them) else they lose money. Can Rishi and Boris grasp that?
July 9, 2020
Well there was no suggestion that entrepreneurs, wealth creators would be set free from red tape, self defeating employment laws and complex too high taxation, so I see nothing to cheer about the billions tossed about so freely.
MMT? I believe it is certain to fail and there will be a drastic reset.
July 9, 2020
It doesn’t look good telling everyone else to get back to work and stop the furlough scheme while the ‘house of commons’ is still sitting as at the height of pandemic
We’re all in it together
I wonder how many MPs have not used and returned the extra £10,000 covid-19 allowance ?
July 9, 2020
The intensions are there. But time and time again the objective appears to be about creating a sound-bite to suggest something is happening, rather than the framework to release enterprise.
This fails for the simple reason there are so many people and organization in the naysayer told you so camp, looking for every single minutia, miss-step, miss-hap to bombard the media with their version of the world. All Kings & Queens of the power of hindsight.
Government has been sucked into ‘believing’ only they have the magic pill, when in reality it is every individual in the country that is closer to the situation and able to remedy all our ills going forward.
Government should be about loosening its control on our daily life, removing its burden on the individual and give them an opportunity to solve todays challenges by putting the person in the mirror in charge. That way things will be solved an implemented more effectively an quickly. An illustration, the virus, the UK went into lock-down because things in London had got out of control. But the rest of the country was a good 4 weeks behind. Meaning the pain had to encompass every one for longer than necessary.
Its a bit like the JKF take on ‘ask not what the Country can do for you but what can you do for the Country’ We need to get back to the ideal that the power is with the individual not the State. One is Socialisms and dictatorship, the other is freedom and democracy – one size can never fit all.
July 9, 2020
Vast areas of the economy were switched off over night on 23rd March and the chancellor has put together a very reasonable set of incentives to get our money flowing round the system once more. The £1000 bonus won’t save all the furloughed workers but it will go a long way to reduce the numbers of those not being asked to return.
There is an incentive targeting both the school/university leaver and the over-25s who want to change occupation. There was a similar scheme for the over-25s in the late 70s and early 80s that was very successful. Those who wanted to change career were supported by the government to go through a re-training course and secure a new job. I changed my company’s policy on recruiting trainee programmers to only take those who had held down jobs successfully before deciding to change to the computer industry. They were far more productive than the 18 year old wiz-kid who had zero knowledge of business.
The stamp duty holiday on house purchase and the 15% reduction in VAT plus the £10 voucher for a large part of the entertainment sector will all help to get the money flowing round the system.
A good package to give the economy merry-go-round a decent push-start.
July 9, 2020
While the furlough scheme needs to be wound down, I happen to be in agreement with the shadow Chancellor on the point that it can’t be done in a “one size fits all” manner.
There are whole industries out there that still don’t know when they can operate again (gyms, sports centres, theatres and concert venues).
The winding down of the furlough scheme for each sector needs to be aligned with the opening up of each sector, and while the government deems it necessary to keep a particular sector closed down completely, the scheme should remain in place for that sector.
July 9, 2020
Sorry I think Sunak has it all wrong.. He should be helping manufacturing industries to keep their staff. If people haven’t got jobs they won’t eat out. People have always eaten in restaurants and gone to the pub as long as they have the money to do so. If people lose jobs in the manufacturing industries (cars, airlines etc) then they won’t be eating out anyway. Also cut out all the subsidies for green energy and take away the VAT on energy bills. This will help businesses as well as domestic customers. I won’t be going out to eat or to drink in a pub anytime soon and risk the possibility of being informed I was with one infected person and will need to do a test or self isolate. When the time is right I will continue to live my life normally.
July 9, 2020
Fully agree with comments….its also so simply I can’t understand why our government can’t see it – save manufacturing jos first and formost
July 9, 2020
Sorry, I think Sunak has it all wrong. We should be trying to protect our manufacturing industries. People have always gone out to eat and to the pub as long as they have the money to do so. If jobs are lost in industry that will have a knock on effect on so many other jobs then if people lose their jobs they won’t be able to afford to go out. The reason people are not flocking to restaurants etc is because they can’t be bothered with the rules and regs and also because they have seen how others behave – or don’t behave. I don’t want to have to take a test or self isolate just because I have been to the pub with someone that has the virus. I’m happy to eat and drink at home. Vat should come off energy bills too and this would help businesses and domestic customers. Stop all subsidies for green energy. We all know this won’t happen as we have a government that has been brainwashed.
July 9, 2020
+1
July 9, 2020
Sorry John. My first post didn’t show that it was accepted so I typed another.
July 9, 2020
A friend owns and runs a coffee shop in the city centre. The Chancellor’s help is welcomed but he can only offer financial solutions to what is a health and confidence problem.
July 9, 2020
There is a contradiction in all this, while all well meaning and shows understanding of the situation. It isn’t really the answer.
With respect to your contributors, most will be suggesting – give this to that quarter, pay them for that, lets have a grant for this or that. When in reality it is a hand out here, a grant there and an allowance for this that and the other that is the root cause of the problem. They are all piled on top of one another to redress the situation that the previous offering set out to achieve. Its the system that was made for a previous century and set of circumstances, that no longer fits today.
I work aligned to an industry that has enjoyed the benefits of the furlough scheme. However, over last 3-4 weeks as the next phase draws to a close the we have seen 3 medium size outfits take advantage of and exploiting the situation for a Pre-Pack Sale. Just those 3 companies have stuffed the industry supply side with £250million in un-paid never to be paid bills. A whole bunch of loyal staff get to lose their job. The IR as in the taxpayer, loses further tax revenue and NHI payments while also picking up the tab for the redundancy and unemployment payments.
The out come is while we have a whole bunch of redundancies are not helping the Chancellor the bosses of these companies get to keep their jobs. These guys are now free of debt, they have dumped it other who are also struggling. They will now compete in an un-equitable way with the rest of the industry. Logic is it is feeding further turmoil and failures.
The Companies themselves through the convenience of an unequal UK tax system have paid little or no tax in the last 10 years or more, yet have enjoyed taxpayer support through these difficult time. So without contributing to the NHS, the infrastructure and the wellbeing of the Country they have been able to profit disproportionately. Their downfall was created by those individuals that get to profit most.
Pre-Pack was a warm cuddly idea with the best intentions to save jobs but has become corrupted, misused, as it rewards those responsible for the problem while punishing the innocent.
As hard and destructive the turmoil is in this country is, there has never been a more suitable time to ditch the old tinkered distorted structure and start again with a system made for a modern world. The Phrase K.I.S.S. (keep it simple stupid) comes to mind.
July 10, 2020
Ian
Absolutely agree, far too many companies are using the Pre Pack, Friday – Monday trick of getting rid of all debt, to make themselves viable and even more competitive in the same market, against their same competitors who have struggled through and been honest.
Seen it all far too many times over the years.
Its been made far too easy to just close, take your suppliers for a ride, and start again
July 9, 2020
I have a tastecard anyway and the private sector will do things more effectively if they want to drum up custom than these stupid 10 pound government gimmicks. Unless and until our Dear Leader Kim Jong Son does what the new French Prime Minister said yesterday, we are cursed. This is what he said during an RTL interview….
“But we’re not going to impose a lockdown like the one we did last March, because we’ve learned … that the economic and human consequences from a total lockdown are disastrous,” he said.
The government knew what would happen and they are totally to blame for this ongoing catastrophe…..
Anyway, doubtless we will soon be compulsorily muzzled as the mood music is changing on muzzles despite the incontrovertible proof about the dangers of mask wearing in non clinical settings. Our dreaded Health commissar, Mat Hang Kok, will enjoy imposing this restriction until he can get a needle in our arm!
Zorro
July 9, 2020
Top post, Zorro.
The Norwegian Prime Minister has also apologised along similar lines.
Not yet the cowardly British Government.
July 9, 2020
Its a Blairite government, only there because the opposition was so bad, and the Brexit party handed them some seats.
The package redistributes more wealth from the hard working, risk taking, wealth creating, to the lazy inefficient permanent staff of the public sector and their big contractors.
The government is destroying the very people who make this country work despite itself.
I am staggered at how bad our ruling class has become.
I am also staggered that there is not a single MP voicing the genuine views of the decent majority on these issues.
Our country is in serious trouble. Our ruling class is worse than at any point in our history.
So no its not a “sensible package” it is a death warrant for everything we hold dear.
Nobody supports this nonsense, there is no demographic of natural voters for this nonsense.
July 9, 2020
Inclined to agree a lot of that. The last 3 months has been an eye-opener on how ‘what should have been’ a very welcome change of government has muddled its way through day after day, week by week. Confused? Disappointed? YOU BET!
July 9, 2020
Iain Gill
“It’s a Blairite government”
For me the jury is still out.
I’d like to see government scrap the barnet formula as long as the SNP exists, flush all forms of woke-ism down the toilet, and walk away right now from the French – led ungrateful EU.
For all the good this government does, the conservatives won’t be getting my vote until the above are carried out.
July 9, 2020
All these individual actions are too small, too focused, they are all open to criticism and doomed to either over- or underachieve, and other, more deserving stimuli are left out.
Tax is the answer. Cut IHT, Stamp Duty, Fuel duty, duty on alcohol, income tax, capital gains tax. Cut them all and let the citizens decide where to spend their money. Thatchernomics.
July 9, 2020
BTW. Before the furlough schemes turn into redundancies and we go over the ERG “no-deal” Brexit Cliff with no vaccine; it will be a good idea to implement a MMT minimum waged Job Guarantee scheme.
July 9, 2020
The gov spent 25 billion in three months on PPE and track and traces, that would buy 1.25 million cars at 20,000 pounds each, 15 months production or 83.000 homes or at 300,000 pounds each, that what happens when governments panic and have overrated politicians running things.
On the other side of the pond, they managed to spend 860 billion dollars extra in the month of June alone.
July 9, 2020
When trying to contact insurance companies and banks a recorded message tells us that the safety of our staff is important and they are not available to talk, but possibly someone may be available after ten minutes. I think that big business has suckered the government into furloughing staff that could have been working from home. If my wife can run her department using the internet and phone, why can’t a person working in a call centre? The banks have managed to cut staff costs and redundancy payments while charging the same to customers.
July 9, 2020
I can’t believe Sunak said that he accepts that some companies will claim the £1000 even though some employees were never going to be made redundant, talk about being reckless. Who will pay for this recklessness ,well the most poorest very likely. I voted conservative for the very first time because I thought Boris would be a good leader, but never again. I never thought this government could be so reckless with tax payers money, money that has been poorly spent.
July 9, 2020
Not wholly sensible, I’m afraid. No support for airlines, aircraft or engine builders where some of our most advanced engineering and scientific jobs are being lost.
On the other hand the £5,000 house insulation is criminally wasteful – it will save marginal heating costs and maybe none at all if householders just let their homes become a little warmer. It’s all part of the obsession with CO2 based on poor science. There is a desperate need for more scientists and engineers in government instead of so many lawyers and the like.
If the government really want to create employment for goodness sake give the go-ahead for the planned coal mine in the north-east which they have been dithering over for months. If it is refused if will make ‘build, build, build’ look pretty hollow.
July 9, 2020
What recovery?
Small towns and villages across the country have been destroyed by this Government’s disgraceful policy of closing viable businesses and locking down the healthy. High Streets which were already struggling with increased rents, rates, car parking charges and the minimum wage, as well as competition from online sales, have been wrecked by the lockdown. Many businesses won’t re-open. Sunak had nothing to offer them.
And the idea that High Streets could be turned into social hubs with cafes and restaurants has also taken a direct hit. Many won’t re-open – we’re already seeing the demise of well-known chains – and social distancing will hit those which do. Who on earth would want to take a chance on opening a new business when they know that a panicking Government can and will close them down on the say-so of a bunch of incompetent scientists and their garbage-in/garbage-out mathematical models. A one-month half-price offer is just a gimmick.
When the Government decided to impose a nationwide lockdown (NOT necessary as both Prof Whitty and Matt Hancock confirmed) it deliberately chose to destroy the economies of small towns and villages across the country. And nothing Sunak did yesterday is going to revive them.
July 9, 2020
Agreed, Donna.
The stupidity of this government beggars belief.
July 9, 2020
People are very likely to batten down the hatches and spend less. They don’t know how this reckless spending will be paid for , if it will be paid for ,how it will be paid for and who will pay for it. Sunak should have set out this plan so we know it’s effect and how we could plan for it.
July 9, 2020
No support for airlines, aircraft or engine builders where some of our most advanced engineering and scientific jobs are being lost.
On the other hand the £5,000 house insulation is criminally wasteful – it will save marginal heating costs and maybe none at all if householders just let their homes become a little warmer. It’s all part of the obsession with CO2 based on poor science. There is a desperate need for more scientists and engineers in government instead of so many lawyers and the like.
If the government really want to create employment for goodness sake give the go-ahead for the planned coal mine in the north-east which they have been dithering over for months. If it is refused if will make ‘build, build, build’ look pretty hollow.
July 9, 2020
The £5,000 home insulation is absurdly wasteful – pandering to the CO2 obsession – it’s highly likely home owners would simply let their houses run a degree or so higher and not save anything. It would be better spent helping airlines, aircraft and engine builders.
If the governments want to help jobs, go ahead with the proposed coal mine in the north-east which they have been dithering over for months, no doubt to appease the green lobby. If this is refused it will make ‘build, build, build’ look distinctly hollow
July 9, 2020
Absolutely spot on @Ian. Well said!
July 9, 2020
Rishi Sunak is turning out to be a very impressive chancellor. His new measures look to be exactly what is required, he is extremely good at the dispatch box and appears to be an all-round Nice Chap.
His new measures are very welcome although we will have to see just how deep a recession we will experience. If an effective vaccine becomes widely available in the next six months the economic effects of the virus could prove to be less serious than we dare hope.
As for the opposition, Anneliese Dodds turned out as deeply unimpressive as expected. Heaven knows why Starmer picked her for one of the top jobs. Perhaps it is an indication of just how bare the Labour benches are of talent. With her Scottish accent and lack of ability, a casual observer could easily think she belonged on the SNP benches where, compared with her colleagues, she would undoubtedly be a shining star.
July 9, 2020
I am not sure nice is what is needed in the Chancellor. A proper understanding of economics is. Like that excellent chap you managed Hong Kong so well many years back – whose name escapes me.
July 10, 2020
Sir John Cowperthwaite,
July 11, 2020
🙂
July 9, 2020
Chris S
“With her Scottish accent”
There you go, that’s why he picked her.
July 9, 2020
I disagree about the Shadow Chancellor. She is easily the best of a very bad bunch.
July 9, 2020
Talking of accents, the Chancellor used to have a very nice educated voice but has changed it recently to something verging on the Milibandian. I hope this isn’t the wrong sort of calculation.
July 9, 2020
Hancock needs to sharpen up too.
July 9, 2020
rose,
I think you might be correct. Dodds appears broader and more generally informed than Sunak and possibly smarter. Her position though seems to be to accept Sunak’s policies, but in criticism broaden into the wider Govt approach/failure. This may well be true, but she ought to broaden the economics as this is Sunak’s specific failure and limitations.
July 10, 2020
Not that bother about his voice educated or not. My main concern is that he clearly does not understand how to run an economy.
July 9, 2020
ChrisS: “Rishi Sunak is turning out to be a very impressive chancellor.”
How difficult could it be? Showering money around like a deranged fireman with a high pressure hose.
July 10, 2020
…Showering taxpayers’ money around.
July 10, 2020
I agree. Mr Sunak is not impressive, dangerous would be the best I could think of.
July 10, 2020
“Heaven knows why Starmer picked her for one of the top jobs” well he is hardly spoiled for choice? All deluded, chip on the shoulder, politics of envy, magic money tree, socialist dopes almost without exception.
July 9, 2020
Seems sensible package. Well done!
Why not raise a few pounds by privatising the BBC? Or, be bolder (and more popular?) by giving say half the shares, one hundred each, to TV licence holders.
July 9, 2020
Rishi Sunak is a great politician (although he does look at bit like Ed Milliband ) measures generally ok not sure about half price meals. Aviation and car industry is a challenge. Long haul flights are not going to recover and car manufacture is a crowded market.
I think the BBC should be stopped from reimposing license fees on over 75s. This is a soft target because they don’t stream programmes. This age group is most likely to use shops rather than on line so they will have reduced spending power. The BBC needs to down size its far too big in this multi channel age.
July 9, 2020
The Government look like they will finally let gyms and swimming pools open, but not without a raft of one-size-fits-all pettifogging restrictions. There is even a suggestion that you may not be allowed to change out of your wet swimming costume. We know what the overall objectives are, why not let individual businesses who know their own facilities make their own decisions and let customers choose whether they are prepared to take a slight risk or not?
July 9, 2020
I feel we’re throwing good money after bad. This is not a V-shaped recovery but their policies imply it is. Fiscal help should be generic with interest rate cuts (done), QE (done and should be little more), targeted sector loans only for those sectors specifically hit by coronavirus (eg airlines, hospitality and tourism). We should not be generically wasting fiscal resources trying to prop-up consumer demand. It won’t work as we are in a global recession and we are in it because there was unsustainable levels of global consumer and government expenditure as well as business investment all fuelled by debt. Therefore global economies were not worth their reported GDP values, most notably the US. They needed correcting and the recession is that correction. The UK government should be efficient, sector focused where affordable and embrace the reality that we are in an economic correction and they cannot overcome it
July 9, 2020
He overlooked self employed people. There are thousands of singular self-employed, they work hard, work many hours, thousands work alone. Where is their help?
July 9, 2020
SEISS? Self-Employment Income Support Scheme . 29.05.20 2.3 million claims worth £6.8 billion. https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2020/04/self-employed-help-coronavirus/
July 11, 2020
Trav I’ve been looking into why some self-employed people aren’t eligible and I can find two main reasons:
1) they have earned over £50,000pa for the past three years (although why they’re not entitled to a max £2500 if they’ve paid tax and national insurance on that like furloughed employees I don’t know).
2) they have set up companies and pay themselves totally out of dividends with no national insurance contributions thus saving national insurance pa if they earn under £39,000 as the dividends are only received after corporation tax has already been paid so 19% c.tax + dividend tax 5% = 24% tax – compared to employees ni 12% + employers ni 13.8% + tax 20% = 45.8%. So isn’t it a bit like complaining you can’t claim on insurance for your house if you’ve not bought a policy?
July 9, 2020
Mr Sunak’s policies are unethical and ineffective. The coronavirus challenge presented Mr Sunak with a unique opportunity to step off the right-left (free-command) continuum and move the economic structure forward – he has not taken the opportunity.
Initial failures:
Failed to offer more than statutory sick pay to encourage self-isolation early in the epidemic. This may well have helped, particularly for the low income people working across care homes.
Failed to explain to / convince the PM and Health Secretary that switching off the economy would cause a reduction in GDP at least as great as the global financial crisis. After the GFC the UK needed a decade to recover GDP per capita; this was associated with a flattening of life expectancy (continued growth would have seen 2 years at birth increase, 1 year at age 65) – this represents a far greater loss of quality life years than the so-called reasonable worst case CV19 death forecasts. The economy should not have been switched off.
Initial positives:
Went for an operationalizable job retention scheme for the initial 3 week lockdown when speed was of the essence, and there was some small hope that Hancock et al would only lockdown for 3 weeks allowing the existing economy to switch back on.
Ongoing failure:
Continued the job retention scheme when the lockdown continued beyond the initial 3 weeks. This confirmed the view that the prior market valuations of people was correct irrespective of the future (a deeply prejudiced valuing of people and their future possibilities) and paid labour to be immobile i.e. encouraged the economy to not adjust.
Childish interfering policies that neither provide security nor promote individual action.
Missed Opportunity:
Mr Sunak clearly supports the ongoing ZIRP/negativeIRP/QE. There are two possibilities, (a) Mr Sunak does not believe that individuals should be prudent and save for their own futures i.e. this should be a role for the state (in which case he is in the wrong party), or (b) this is an admission that the fundamental change of being in a post-scarcity world is coming to fruition (demand is fundamentally less than production possibilities).
Assuming (b) is correct Mr Sunak should have faced the choice between
(i) the MMT job guarantee approach, or
(ii) the combined fiscal + monetary (i.e. social credit / national dividend) UBI approach.
In the first approach the Govt is an employer of last resort; since the GBP is a fiat currency the Govt can provide jobs for all. Given that labour resource is available there is no real i.e. opportunity cost, the market is just failing to direct the resource and would still fail to do so if Govt acted via taxation. In the extreme case the Govt jobs need not produce anything worthwhile, they just appear to do so to distribute income to consume other worthwhile production. On the positive this arguably can maintains skills. On the negative it validates a model that life is about maximised employment and more power is transferred to Govt.
In the second approach all adults receive a universal basic income. This gives a known level of security, but still permits individuals to use their time on other labour, entrepreneurial or leisure activities – more power is not transferred to the Govt, the economy is left to adapt and life is valued in terms of individual definitions of flourishing rather than mandated employment – unless production is insufficient. The fiscal part of the UBI is funded via taxation such as progressive consumption tax (e.g. increase VAT and then redistribute the revenue equally to all), though there are many alternatives. The monetary part of the UBI is a Douglas social credit-like national dividend i.e. the Govt issues money equally to all based on the gap between a defined current period’s production of consumables and that period’s income (wages, dividends etc.). This replaces at least some of the current system of personal borrowing for consumption i.e. what currently fills the gap between production and input (banks are suitably constrained from lending to limit inflation). Roughly, rather than encouraging people to borrow with zero interest rate they are all given an equal amount personal debt free. This monetary component of UBI increases as production efficiency increases but decreases otherwise, if period aggregate consumable supply is not greater than period aggregate consumable demand (without borrowing) it is not given.
July 9, 2020
Slight typo –
‘production and income’ not “production and input”
July 10, 2020
‘Initial failures:Failed to offer more than statutory sick pay to encourage self-isolation early in the epidemic. This may well have helped, particularly for the low income people working across care homes.’
This is being repeated now, people that have worked throughout this virus with reduced overtime (only earning 20% more than those furloughed and some equally with the furloughed public sector/large state protected organisations) can’t afford to self-isolate on ssp for 2 weeks it’s not like a normal illness they may not even be ill but told not to work by the government tracers – if government tracers want them to stop working then they must go onto furlough.
July 10, 2020
Whether they’ve been on furlough or not before and for 14 days not 3 weeks minimum.
July 10, 2020
Yep, if people are being told to isolate (as opposed to a knee jerk lock down for all) they need to paid to do it.
July 9, 2020
Why should restaurants (and presumably food pubs) be given more government (i.e. taxpayers’) money?
These businesses were already failing pre-covid, largely due to over-charging (people don’t drink and drive any more, so they seem to think the solution is to charge the same amount of money for fewer drinks – they’re surprised when the customers stay at home).
There was an interesting piece on ConHome (yesterday?) saying, essentially, that the new economy may not look much like the old (pre-March 2020). People may decide that they don’t want to travel abroad, so supporting businesses that are providing a service that the public no longer want is akin to supporting the horse-drawn carriage industry after the invention of the car.
It’s not the government’s job to pick winners. Nor is it the right of a business to stay in business. Many seem to feel that they have some right to survival and profits, but the very nature of business is risk (of failure).
July 9, 2020
What is needed, as many epidemiologists have urged, is simply an end to Contrick-19 Lockdown restrictions on UK businesses.
Sherelle Jacobs summarised well how fear porn panic over second wave red herrings will lead to catastrophe: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/07/02/risk-going-cliff-chasing-second-wave-red-herrings/
US Entrepreneur JB Handley provides a Comprehensive debunking of why the “second wave” is simply impossible: https://off-guardian.org/2020/07/07/second-wave-not-even-close/
Will Jones shows why Lockdowns are ineffective & provides evidence that the collective immunity threshold has been reached in the UK and many other countries. https://conservativewoman.co.uk/why-lockdown-is-useless-the-case-for-the-prosecution/
July 9, 2020
OFF TOPIC.
Martin – as you usually miss news about China:-
China’s sporting authority has announced it will cancel almost all international sporting events, casting fresh doubt over this year’s postponed Formula 1 race in Shanghai.
The country’s General Administration of Sport announced on Thursday no such events will take place except for trials for the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics, Chinese news agency Xinhua reported.
Eradication of Covid was so fast and effective 3 months ago that they have now decided to cancel all sport involving visitors for this year. However, they will continue with their trials for Olympics – bit odd that. Would foreigners discover all is not as it seems?
July 10, 2020
Foreigners from here or from the US would re-infect the country and undo all their very hard work, Fred, just as they would for New Zealand, which also will not accept visitors from here.
July 10, 2020
but why now – 3 months later? I smell guilt.
July 10, 2020
They were perfectly happy to send tens of thousands of their citizens all over the world with Wuhan in lockdown. All a but late!
July 10, 2020
Martin, Just a little bit more and you will be advocating a border lock down. As I did in March. And was roundly condemned as “xenophobic” by Andy who you have supported at every turn. Of course we should have locked down our borders – just as New Zealand did. And you keep praising NZ, don’t you?
July 10, 2020
I’m much more interested in how we return to fiscal sanity and steadily reduce State debt, which will exceed 100% of GDP by the end of this financial year.
What makes it worse is that the PM and the Government as a whole are Hell bent on a major programme of public expenditure which will create jobs in the short to medium term but will starve the private sector of investment capital. The State’s ‘investments’ – NHS, HS2, Heathrow, public transport, green energy – will not yield a financial return, although they may yield a return in ‘wellbeing’. It remains to be seen how much people will appreciate ‘wellbeing’ when they’re flat broke.
July 10, 2020
Here is my unsolicited account of opening a new bank account at one of the four main high street banks.
1. Online application. Completed with the undertaking that the account opening request would be processed within two working days.
2. One week later. Today, received a letter asking me to call their ‘help centre’ (note the quotes) where after waiting in the queue for fifteen minutes being told all about the Covid-19 situation and that ‘my call is important to us. Please hold the line’. I finally got through to an individual who asked me for my telephone bank pin. I do all my banking on line and haven’t used their telephone banking service for – fifteen years. So of course I’d forgotten it. Then a short while later during the conversation, the line went dead.
3. Called again – Another twenty minutes waiting listening to their diabolical recorded messages. I finally get through to a human. Who after another ten or so minutes told me she couldn’t help and that I’d have to go into the high street branch.
The best part of 80 minutes wasted. But, it’s not over yet.
Walked into the branch, and was interrogated for about fifteen minutes, where do I live, what is my salary, what is my outgoings, bla bla bla.
All that information is available to the bank because I already have an account with this bank and have done for 30 years!
Eventually, I got my new account opened and am now receiving 2.5% on the balance.
But the joke is, it took me the best part of two hours to open an account, to get as much as £30 total annual interest. Two hours of my time in a professional capacity costs much more than £30.
If you Mr Redwood, want to make the system more efficient, you should have a good hard look at all the stupid regulations that you and the government have foisted on the banks.
Because it’s not the banks procedure they are following, it the Governments money laundering and tax dodging regulations.
It’s insane.