Sterling rises again

All those who think sterling will fall every time there is no progress on a Brexit deal need to think again.

Over the last month of reports of no progress in talks sterling has risen by 3% against the dollar and 2% against the Euro. Over the last year of talks going nowhere sterling is now 10% higher against the dollar and 2% higher against the Euro.

So why no rush by the pro Remain forces to express pleasure, when they are so ready to rush out misleading releases wrongly blaming Brexit every time sterling dips?

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129 Comments

  1. margaret howard
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 11:45 am | Permalink

    From £1.64 to £1.11 in twenty years – wonderful achievement.

    • NickC
      Posted August 30, 2020 at 3:48 pm | Permalink

      All whilst we were in your EU empire, too, Margaret.

    • Nigl
      Posted August 30, 2020 at 4:02 pm | Permalink

      Yes indeed. We have benefitted greatly.

    • Jiminyjim
      Posted August 30, 2020 at 5:35 pm | Permalink

      Factually false again, M H. You have been told before but prefer just to repeat your false news

      • margaret howard
        Posted August 30, 2020 at 8:09 pm | Permalink

        Jiminyjim

        What is?

      • bill brown
        Posted August 31, 2020 at 7:16 am | Permalink

        Jimmyjim

        the pound has fallen over a very long period,, compared to EURO and US$, so please check your facts. Which I am unfortunately, aware , you are not very good at in the past

    • Sea Warrior
      Posted August 30, 2020 at 6:26 pm | Permalink

      The pound has been lower against the Euro – and that was before the referendum.

      • bill brown
        Posted September 1, 2020 at 1:38 pm | Permalink

        Sea Warrior

        thank you but that is not really realted to the historical answer I gave.

    • Martin in Cardiff
      Posted August 31, 2020 at 6:50 am | Permalink

      Yes, the USD has fallen markedly over the last few months, against the euro and other main currencies – Sterling reflects this.

      It’s still around 90p for a euro though, down a little, but remember that it would have been 52p in 2004.

      These movements of late are not of major significance.

      • NickC
        Posted August 31, 2020 at 11:07 am | Permalink

        No, Martin, the Euro was not 52p in 2004 or anything like, it was 68p average, with only a small deviation. The main fall in GBP vs Euro was around 2008 (68p avg in 2007 to 89p avg in 2009) due to Labour’s financial crash. Figures from Statista/ECB.

        • Martin in Cardiff
          Posted August 31, 2020 at 3:29 pm | Permalink

          Thank you Nick.

          A normally reliable site failed on that point – yes, Sterling’s best was in May 2000 at around 1.70 euros.

  2. NickC
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 11:53 am | Permalink

    JR, You already know why there is no rush by Remains to express pleasure – they want Brexit Britain to fail. They won’t lend a hand to promote their own country. Instead they revel in any set back, and deny any success.

    Indeed Andy believes his own propaganda so much he has constructed a fantasy world where our economy tanks because of Leave; all the 17.4m angry Tory pensioners are dead; we crawl on our knees to the EU begging to be let back in; and Brexit politicians such as Farage, Hannan, etc, are jailed after show trials by “young people”.

  3. Jacey
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 11:57 am | Permalink

    Thought for the day ; In 50 years time will the pound sterling still exist ? In 50 years
    time will the Euro still exist ?

    • NickC
      Posted August 30, 2020 at 3:53 pm | Permalink

      Jacey, All these currencies – GBP, Euro, Dollar, etc, are fiat. And they’re all pretty much the same thing. In 50 years time we’re likely to have a world currency – also fiat – and all of us will be chipped like dogs and only able to buy and sell if we are.

    • Peter van LEEUWEN
      Posted August 30, 2020 at 4:38 pm | Permalink

      @Jacey: In 50 years, both might have dissapeared but I won’t be around then.
      For the moment, the euro is the world’s second reserve currency, so there must be some confidence in it (outside Britain).

      • formula57
        Posted August 30, 2020 at 6:46 pm | Permalink

        @ Peter van LEEUWEN – those with the confidence are those who think they will be given Deutschemarks come the day. 😉

      • Lynn Atkinson
        Posted August 30, 2020 at 7:01 pm | Permalink

        😂😂 yes! All those in Africa faced with their ‘single currency’ – the Afro prefer the ‘Euro”.
        Think that keeping the Euro high makes Germany pay for a few things – It cost little to keep it high!

      • Martin in Cardiff
        Posted August 31, 2020 at 3:15 pm | Permalink

        Yes, the success story at the moment is the euro, up from about $1.1o to approaching $1.20 in just a few months.

  4. Jack Falstaff
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 12:09 pm | Permalink

    Let’s face it, Pro-Remain will criticise Brexit both if sterling falls (using this is a barometer for the claim that the UK has somehow lost worth and status by leaving the EU) and do exactly the same if it rises (this time on the grounds that it must surely spell doom for our exports and increase our reliance on imports from the EU).
    It’s a bit like house prices in the sense that you can always find an excuse for any significant movement heralding bad news, whether this should involve a rise or a fall.
    Naturally Pro-Remain will look to highlight the less sanguine angle for any such news as part of their mission to play “we the aggrieved”.

    • Andy
      Posted August 30, 2020 at 6:47 pm | Permalink

      This is precisely what Europhobes did for forty years while we were in the EU and its predecessors.

      Every bit of bad economic news was Europe’s fault. Every good bit of economic news came despite Europe.

      There is precisely zero doubt that, overall, Brexit will cause economic damage. There may be good bits of economic news from time to time, despite Brexit. But we know, overall, it harms our country and its people. And none of you can explain why harming your country and its people is patriotic or anything other than foolish.

      • Edward2
        Posted August 30, 2020 at 8:43 pm | Permalink

        And EU fans said every bit of poor economic news was due to domestic policies and evrry good bit of economic news was due to the effects of being in the EU

        • bill brown
          Posted August 31, 2020 at 7:13 am | Permalink

          Edward 2

          no sources and no quotes the standard is really falling

          • Edward2
            Posted August 31, 2020 at 8:00 am | Permalink

            If only you followed your own advice bill.

      • NickC
        Posted August 31, 2020 at 11:22 am | Permalink

        Andy said: “There is precisely zero doubt that, overall, Brexit will cause economic damage.” Precisely?? Zero?? Wherever do you get the evidence for such a didactic statement?

        If Brexit will indubitably cause our country economic damage why aren’t the other (independent of the EU) countries clamouring to join up? The answer is because you’ve just made it up. And your fake precision shows how desperate you are.

        And no, neither I, nor any other sensible eurosceptic I read, blamed the EU for what it did not do.

  5. Lifelogic
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 12:19 pm | Permalink

    Indeed but it will fall if we have idiotic economic policies like those floated by the Treasury. These moronic suggested tax rises and a higher risk of socialist taking over in four years time. Merely floating the idea of increasing these taxes from their (already absurdly high tax rates) is hugely damaging. It shows that Sunak is another tax borrow and piss down the drain fool as one has come to expect of PPE Oxon people.

    Capital gains tax up to 40%! (it is already 28% for many sales and this is often 28% of profits that are not even real profits without inflation indexation). It would give people and businesses less to reinvest damaging the economy, jobs, wages, productivity and deterring investment in the UK thus damaging the future tax base,

    Increasing corporation tax gives business less to invest in capital equipment, creating new jobs and for expansion again it deters investment and damages productivity.

    Pension mugging is idiotic too. Brown, Osborne and Hammond have already largely destroyed private UK pensions. The only pensions than need addressing are the bloated state sector ones for the largely parasitic sector.

    All these tax increase would also reduce the tax take of other taxes like Stamp Duty, VAT and income tax. Where is the TEA partly we are Taxed Enough Already – indeed taxed far too much already.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted August 30, 2020 at 2:33 pm | Permalink

      Also as we have come to expect of nearly all recent Labour and Conservative Chancellors. They seem to think their job as one of endlessly raising more taxes for governments to waste (and making the tax code more and more complex and idiotic another tax in itself). Their real job should be to stop this endless government waste and growth that is suffocating the economy and real jobs so badly. Get the state back to doing those rather few things it can do better than the private sector.

    • Peter
      Posted August 30, 2020 at 3:52 pm | Permalink

      Rishi was chosen to be a media darling and possible future PM from the outset.

      Of course, Gordon Brown also had a long spell of favourable coverage despite selling off the gold reserves and destroying pensions. He also benefitted from a victim hood line that he was being denied the prime ministers job by Tony Blair failing to keep a promise. It was only an unguarded remark to Gillian Duffy that did for Brown.

      Rishi will destroy those who tried to be prudent. Capital gains tax and inheritance tax raids on their assets are highly likely. Elites will avoid these measures as is always the case.

      Only two posts out of twenty two in the first tranche Lifelogic. That’s less than ten percent. While you do refer to PPE graduates, there is no mention at all of greencrap(sic).

      Could do better.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted August 30, 2020 at 6:52 pm | Permalink

        Quite right green crap is indeed yet another idiotic burden on the productive and a great way to destroy or export jobs and depress the economy and tax base. Will freezing pensioners to death. Several thousands more deaths a month in winter than summer.

      • DavidJ
        Posted August 31, 2020 at 6:51 am | Permalink

        Nowadays all policy is inspired by the globalists who seem to have our government ministers and civil service by the balls. Surely no-one could create such policies of their own free will?

    • NickC
      Posted August 30, 2020 at 4:00 pm | Permalink

      Lifelogic, What you say is true. That’s because Tory politicians, in general, are consumed by anxiety, rather than being confident in their own world view. They dare not do what they know is right.

  6. Sir Joe Soap
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 12:25 pm | Permalink

    No focus on Brexit.
    Inflation expectations in the US, virus expectations and money printing in the Eurozone.
    I think it’s accepted that in a short term minus 10% GDP environment, plus or minus a smidgen due to Brexit is lost in the noise.
    Move on. Look at real issues.

  7. Ian Wragg
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 12:35 pm | Permalink

    There’s still a large contigent of the establishment who want to keep attached to the EU.
    There is still time for an 11th hour capitulation on state aid, lpf and fishing.
    Stand firm John the public won’t stand another betrayal.

    • Mike Wilson
      Posted August 30, 2020 at 11:52 pm | Permalink

      Of course the public will stand another betrayal. We love betrayal. You keep voting Tory. You must love being betrayed on immigration all the time.

      • Fred H
        Posted August 31, 2020 at 7:25 am | Permalink

        The voters keep getting hit by a stun-gun. Trouble is they come round, and forget what happened, ready for being shot yet again.

      • NickC
        Posted August 31, 2020 at 11:37 am | Permalink

        Mike W, I can assure you the Tory party does not own my vote. Nor millions of others. The Tories know what their core support is: 9%, only just over a year ago. Labour has just lost dozens of “red wall” constituencies.

        Our country sells itself to the world as a beacon of stability and democracy. It is startling, and shameful, that Remains got within an inch of overturning a legal national vote by using corruption, deceit, and intimidation.

        The experience of the last 4 years will last for decades. And one thing that some within the Tory party recognise is that cheating on the voter is not working any more. So we do expect to Leave the EU fully; we do expect immigration to reduce towards zero; we do want rioters and thugs locked up and not knelt before. Any Tory who thinks it’s business as usual needs to wake up.

  8. Nigl
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 12:39 pm | Permalink

    Yes there view was tosh and indeed never understood the benefits or misled an unknowing public.

    Making exports less competitive and reducing value of dollar earnings, dividends etc the last thing we need but the days of pulling interest rate levers are long gone. If the chancellor raises taxes, reducing demand in a low growth economy and the pound rises further, it will be even more detrimental.

  9. Otto
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 12:42 pm | Permalink

    Surely the £ has not risen, just the $ etc. has fallen. The £ in your pocket has not increased in value, probably fallen in these times !

  10. Otto
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 12:44 pm | Permalink

    I do suppose American chicken would be a little cheaper, if shopkeepers adjusted their prices?

    • NickC
      Posted August 30, 2020 at 4:03 pm | Permalink

      Otto, You prefer UK Halal chicken instead? Each to his own.

      • Lynn Atkinson
        Posted August 30, 2020 at 7:03 pm | Permalink

        Or European chicken where 33,000 people die of food poisoning every year?

        • bill brown
          Posted August 31, 2020 at 7:12 am | Permalink

          Lynn Atkinson

          And how many die in the US?

          • Edward2
            Posted August 31, 2020 at 8:01 am | Permalink

            No facts no sources as usual bill.

          • NickC
            Posted August 31, 2020 at 11:59 am | Permalink

            Bill B, About 3000 die a year in the USA from all food poisoning (c600 from poultry), according to the CDC. You could look that up yourself, of course.

          • Lynn Atkinson
            Posted August 31, 2020 at 9:16 pm | Permalink

            Bill here’s a tip. Before you ask a question, make sure the answer is not going to make a fool of you. 😂😂

    • Edward2
      Posted August 30, 2020 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

      It is just more choice Otto.
      Buy it if you wishl

  11. Carlo Nash
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 1:04 pm | Permalink

    What is this “pro Remain” nonsense? WE HAVE LEFT. Whatever happens now, good or bad, is NOTHING to do with the EU, everything to do with the UK. Start accepting responsibility and stop inventing fantasy “Remainers” to shift blame on to

    • NickC
      Posted August 30, 2020 at 4:10 pm | Permalink

      Carlo, What is this “WE HAVE LEFT” nonsense? You think that by capitalising, it makes it true? The only thing we’ve “left” is the EU treaties (TEU and TFEU) but we immediately signed up to the WA treaty instead which continues EU control over the UK.

      Why do you suppose we cannot sign any trade deal until 1st January 2021? Why do you think we still have to obey all EU laws? Why do you accept that the EU still controls UK fishing grounds? Why is the ECJ the highest court in the land? That’s right – because we haven’t actually left yet.

      • glen cullen
        Posted August 30, 2020 at 7:00 pm | Permalink

        correct

    • NickC
      Posted August 30, 2020 at 4:11 pm | Permalink

      Carlo Nash, You are Andy, and I demand my £5.

  12. Peter
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 1:27 pm | Permalink

    I get a sense of deja vu with this post.

    A rhetorical question, but ‘Remain forces’ are unlikely to ‘express pleasure’ in something that undermines their outlook.

    Some good news for Londoners. TfL trains now go to Reading on the new Elizabeth Line and are free to those who have a Freedon Pass (cue indignation from London haters).

    The Freedom pass does not work automatically at station barriers and staff have to open the gate. Worse still, there are no toilets on the trains. The excuse given is that it would cut passenger numbers by 600 an hour and there are toilets at some stations.

    This is nonsense. Station toilets are often closed – particularly in the evenings. A journey of that length should provide all the necessary facilities.

    A further point is that you have to make sure to board a TfL service. GWR trains to and from Reading are not free.

    Still -Good news that Freedom Pass now goes beyond Zone6 West Drayton.

    • M Brandreth- Jones
      Posted August 30, 2020 at 6:40 pm | Permalink

      Everything about Brexit, the rise and fall of our longest lasting coinage and pound sterling is very much deja vous. Listening to the lovely Dr Lucy Worsley on the box last evening, she aligned Brexit to the protestant / catholic split in the 16th century between Europe and England . Henrys children caused in/ out type Brexits , state/church splits .. which as we know are all solely about power .

      So back home have things changed .. essentially no , but the players are all different and we aim to stop the antithesis of peaceful living, ideologies which exclude thought and are hooked on faith alone. The trend is to talk about evidence , but let us not falsify evidence . The pseudo type of ‘he said this, she said this ‘ evidence will only get us groups of those who speak untruths for the sake of the pot which fails to melt down radicalism.

  13. Alan Jutson
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 1:33 pm | Permalink

    Many have never lived elsewhere so do not appreciate the UK for what it is and what it offers, few will ever make the choice to move and live in any Country in the EU, which is surprising given they say they prefer most things EU.

    Finding fault gives them something to do John.

    All many ever want to do is criticise, its so easy and takes little effort, but to be fair the Government of late has made it easy for them given so many U turns.

    • czerwonadupa
      Posted August 30, 2020 at 6:05 pm | Permalink

      There are plenty of empty dinghies at Dover for the many Jeremiah’s on here for the return journey. Will they be as welcomed by the French as the departees were when escorted out of French territorial waters?

  14. Peter Wood
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 1:38 pm | Permalink

    Sir John,

    Sterling has not risen, the US$ has fallen, look at the US$ index, US.DXY.

    Stop underestimating your readership.

  15. Jake
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 1:47 pm | Permalink

    Currencies will always be going up and down against each other, also this being a particularly difficult year for all concerned it will be after the US November election and after Brexit final transition date 31st December before we might know how things are really likely to be. Chances are that Covid will also drag on for some time afterwards to complicate the murky picture so I wouldn’t be so quick yet at grabbing credit for our good fortune of being independent ex-brexit or anything else for that matter

  16. Bryan Harris
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 2:03 pm | Permalink

    Great news – but don’t expect the remoaners to appreciate it — they only deal in bad news

  17. Barbara
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 2:14 pm | Permalink

    Ot, but really – from the DT

    “Historic tax grab will see Treasury push for a raid on capital gains, pensions, internet sales, fuel and inheritance”

    !!

    • Narrow Shoulders
      Posted August 30, 2020 at 3:51 pm | Permalink

      I would happily see a tax on internet sales. But this must be offset by a reduction in business rates which leaves the take, at worst, the same.

      The other taxes suggested are insane. I did not ask the Chancellor and government to shut down the country to politically save the NHS. I do not expect to pay for it. Print it do not raise it through extra taxes.

  18. Richard1
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 2:26 pm | Permalink

    There were good arguments on both sides of the referendum debate. Having now decided to leave, and having re-affirmed that decision in the general election, it is essential either that there is a sensible FTA similar to those signed between other sovereign states, or that the U.K. moves to WTO terms and we’ll just have to see how it goes. If Continuity Remain are correct, and WTO terms means economic disaster for the U.K., with dis-investment, recession and clear underperformance vs the eurozone then we will have to go back with our tails between our legs, run up the white flag and accept full euro-federalism, euro and all. Perhaps Starmer will stand on such a platform in 2024.

    If, as is more likely, WTO terms don’t make much difference one way or the other, then the success of otherwise of post-Brexit Britain will all be down to policy decisions made here. That being the case, I suggest the Conservatives focus relentlessly on the need for the U.K. to be super-competitive. The talk of huge tax hikes on business and investment is not a good sign. We need to tax the things we want less of, not the things we want more of.

    • NickC
      Posted August 30, 2020 at 4:17 pm | Permalink

      Richard1, A first class assessment. Especially: “WTO terms [w]on’t make much difference one way or the other, [so] the success or otherwise of post-Brexit Britain will all be down to policy decisions made here”.

  19. steve
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 2:36 pm | Permalink

    Hmm, I thought we were talking about the Union.

  20. SJN
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 3:01 pm | Permalink

    Great question, Sir John! The truth about sterling will help restore healthy travel and hospitality to the U.K.

  21. Peter van LEEUWEN
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 3:05 pm | Permalink

    Good news, be it only a very modest increase.
    In my view too small to suggest that the financial markets are hoping for a no-deal.
    After the referendum devaluation, the pound hasn’t moved much.

    • NickC
      Posted August 30, 2020 at 4:26 pm | Permalink

      PvL, I realise one of your specialities is damning by faint praise, but one of the objectives of Tory chancellors 2010-2016 was to devalue the £GBP. So now we are where previous governments wanted us to be. Let us hope they knew what they were doing, but the reality is they – the “experts” – probably didn’t. Going by the example of their inaccurate and pathetic predictions of Brexit doom, that is.

    • Peter van LEEUWEN
      Posted August 30, 2020 at 4:30 pm | Permalink

      After the worst OECD country performance (according to the objective trading economics . com website the UK Year on Year GDP fell 21.70% !) I really don’t mind some good news for the UK.

      • Peter van LEEUWEN
        Posted August 30, 2020 at 4:34 pm | Permalink

        Oops! I see that Spain now scores -22.10%, so let’s change OECD for G7.

  22. Sea Warrior
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 3:38 pm | Permalink

    Hmm. I’ll think with my investment strategy of internationalising my portfolio, to guard against the FTSE’s underperformance against other indices and Sterling’s long-term decline. I’ll stick with that strategy until this Conservative government takes a serious interest in our economic performance. Spurring the development of manufacturing capability would be a good start.

    • hefner
      Posted August 30, 2020 at 4:48 pm | Permalink

      Very sensible.
      I recently read that S&P500 has a bit more than 20% of its holdings in tech companies, the FTSE100 less than 2%. Given the push that Covid-19 has given to everything computer-related it is not surprising that the US indices after the initial drop in March have recovered and are as high as ever and that the main UK one after a big fall mid-March has not moved much in almost six months. And that might be more relevant than Sir John’s Sunday musings.

      • Mike Wilson
        Posted August 30, 2020 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

        And the FTSE 100!is the same now as it was in 1995

        • Mike Wilson
          Posted August 31, 2020 at 12:03 am | Permalink

          Sorry, 1998.

  23. Everhopeful
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 3:44 pm | Permalink

    Could someone in “Government” kindly remove those presently engaged in destroying the British Library and deliver it into safe hands?

    • Iain Moore
      Posted August 30, 2020 at 6:40 pm | Permalink

      Yes the British library is the custodian of some of our treasured manuscripts, documents and literature, it would be negligence of the Government to leave them in the hands of people who don’t care for us, our civilisation, culture or history.

  24. Everhopeful
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 3:54 pm | Permalink

    Very glad Remainers have been proved wrong.
    Can we have our liberty back now please?

  25. glen cullen
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 4:36 pm | Permalink

    Time to reset – and instruct the banks to issue 2019 dividend

    Investment needs a reward otherwise no one will invest

    • Sea Warrior
      Posted August 31, 2020 at 6:03 am | Permalink

      Good point. Some regulators over-stepped the bounds of their authority in leaning on the likes of insurers. Dividends are INCOME for a lot of people. The Commons needs to investigate the dividend-suppressing actions.

  26. margaret howard
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 5:06 pm | Permalink

    According to a report in today’s Mail Liz Truss is asked to ‘beef up toothless new trade body’ to avoid selling out British farmers in the rush to secure post Brexit deals as it offers limited protection against cheap, low quality food imports flooding the country.

    Brexit keeps on giving!

    • Andy
      Posted August 30, 2020 at 6:37 pm | Permalink

      Indeed – she has successfully negotiated a trade deal with Japan which is worse than the one we had as EU members.

      Except – hard cheese producers will now get their tariffs refunded by the British government.

      We exported about £100,000 of hard cheese to Japan.

      This is so far the only benefit of Brexit.

      • hefner
        Posted August 31, 2020 at 6:10 am | Permalink

        Hard cheese deal: particularly interesting given the less than prevalent presence of cheese in most South Asian (including Japanese) cuisine.

      • graham1946
        Posted August 31, 2020 at 10:00 am | Permalink

        Give it time, the deals will come. After all, in the entire history of the EU they have only managed 11 proper deals, not the 100 they claim.

        • hefner
          Posted August 31, 2020 at 3:31 pm | Permalink

          Trade deals (TD) in force: 39.

          TD provisionally agreed: 11 including 4 with groups of countries: Eastern & S.African States, Central America, Pacific States, S.African Development Community Members.

          TD finalized (not signed): West Africa (10 countries), East Africa (5 countries), MercoSur (4 countries).

          ec.europa.eu

          • Edward2
            Posted August 31, 2020 at 7:47 pm | Permalink

            And still international trade just carries on.

        • bill brown
          Posted September 1, 2020 at 1:35 pm | Permalink

          Graham 1946,

          thay actually have deals seventy but you would of course need to look it up, and I know this is very much to ask , for a oyung man like you ?

    • MikeP
      Posted August 30, 2020 at 6:58 pm | Permalink

      No one forces people to buy lower quality food, there’s nothing stopping people buying whatever quality they choose, it’s how consumer choice drives markets

    • Fred H
      Posted August 30, 2020 at 7:19 pm | Permalink

      I remember the flood of cheap, grim, green French apples, do you?
      However nobody bought them, they were left to rot, probably fed to pigs, and imports soon stopped.
      British consumers won’t buy poor quality dumped EU food.

    • Alan Jutson
      Posted August 30, 2020 at 7:56 pm | Permalink

      “BrexIt keeps on giving”

      Trade deals with Japan and Australia in the pipeline we are informed, others also on the fast burner with talks scheduled.

      Agree what’s not to like. !

      • glen cullen
        Posted August 30, 2020 at 9:44 pm | Permalink

        Its just a shame that we’ll end up with a EU deal

        • Alan Jutson
          Posted August 31, 2020 at 9:35 am | Permalink

          Glen

          Let us just wait and see shall we.

          Agree under May and Robbins no point in ever leaving so bad was the surrender, but at least at the moment we are making the right noises.

  27. Will in Hampshire
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 6:15 pm | Permalink

    The Fed’s recent announcement that it will seek to achieve an average inflation rate of 2% over periods of time (enabling it for the first time to run inflation higher than this if that offsets earlier periods with inflation below 2%) is the most convincing explanation of these shifts in the transatlantic exchange rate.

  28. czerwonadupa
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 6:15 pm | Permalink

    Sir John
    I believe it’s called collateral damage or friendly fire but your colleges in government are like drunken drivers of tanks mowing down small businesses in all directions while firing £50 notes at the same time. Not a good recipe for re-election with Farage & his Angry Brigade watching this debacle from the side lines. And don’t count on him & his supporters standing aside a second time for Johnson, if he’s still there when the election comes around..

    • Everhopeful
      Posted August 30, 2020 at 7:46 pm | Permalink

      I wouldn’t count on there being another election. Globalists don’t do democracy.
      We should not have trusted Boris with our safety and freedom.
      Why do they want all this power, if not in order to take more?
      I feel as if I have been taken prisoner.

  29. glen cullen
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 7:02 pm | Permalink

    Sterling might be rising but covid-19 deaths aren’t

    UK pop.68m – UK deaths 1

    • glen cullen
      Posted August 30, 2020 at 9:41 pm | Permalink

      Can someone have word with the BBC

      Tonights headline is about the increase in covid-19 infestions at 1,715 and not a single word about the single (1) recored death

      This isn’t just spin its propaganda

    • Sea Warrior
      Posted August 31, 2020 at 5:59 am | Permalink

      The reduction in the death-toll is very good news – but don’t forget that some of those surviving infections are in for a long period of recuperation and some might never fully recover.

      • glen cullen
        Posted August 31, 2020 at 8:28 am | Permalink

        and for the majority the recovery is 14 days with like mild cold/flu

  30. Lynn Atkinson
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 7:14 pm | Permalink

    It’s becoming more and more certain that we will achieve the clean Brexit we all voted for. The closer we get, the higher the £ in spite of the unprecedented printing of money for the CV19 Cessation.
    My English champagne Remains on ice, thank God for Cummings, Frost and the Glorious few in the House who stood firm through those dangerous, treacherous years, and somehow got us through. JR a rock, we owe him everything. And Thank God for Jeremy Corbyn, who delivered Labour votes against the Remainer Coup.
    When this story is written, the heroes will be the extraordinary ‘ordinary‘ people of Britain, who voted 7 times for Brexit!

    • glen cullen
      Posted August 30, 2020 at 8:47 pm | Permalink

      hear hear

    • hefner
      Posted August 31, 2020 at 6:03 am | Permalink

      Interesting, specially in view of today’s (31/08/2020) item ‘Global economy unlikely to benefit from falling dollar’ in the FT. But what do these journalists know that Lynn does not?

      • Lynn Atkinson
        Posted August 31, 2020 at 9:13 pm | Permalink

        The FT certainly knows nothing these days. Period.

    • bill brown
      Posted August 31, 2020 at 7:10 am | Permalink

      Lynn Atkinson

      Please, do give me a call and I am happy to assist you i your understanding of basic economics

      • Edward2
        Posted August 31, 2020 at 8:03 am | Permalink

        I can well believe it would be basic economics coming from you.

        • hefner
          Posted August 31, 2020 at 3:14 pm | Permalink

          But one has to start with Economics 101 or Economics for Dummies before proceeding further… One would be a bad teacher if one cannot adapt to the level of their pupils. Don’t you know that?

          • Edward2
            Posted August 31, 2020 at 6:22 pm | Permalink

            Well that touched a nerve.
            Even old hef waded in with his old teacher cynical rant.

        • bill brown
          Posted August 31, 2020 at 3:25 pm | Permalink

          Edward2

          Lynn needs to start somewhere, you really do not have enough to do, do you ?

          • Edward2
            Posted August 31, 2020 at 6:22 pm | Permalink

            I’ve got all I require thanks bill.

  31. Newmania
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 7:17 pm | Permalink

    In October 2017 the pound was just over 2USD falling to 1.4 by 2009 . The UK saw steady improvement under the stewardship of George Osborne and by July 2014 stood at 1.71 USD.
    From that point unease at the self harming direction of UK politics began to Pull the Pound down and on every occasion Brexit became more likely it dropped getting down to 1.25 USD in 2017 . Most of the Brexit calamity was priced in by the time of the referendum itself.

    Its very hard to know what a small movement here and there may mean under the current circumstances, 1,34 USD is it ? Fantastic !
    Talks seem set to fail and the consequences will be severe but given the scale of economic pain the hope may be that neither side will dare inflict more agony on their country. I think this is a misjudgement personally- Nothing about this government convinces me they can be trusted to behave with either competence or care. I fear many Brexit voters will pay the same high price that the gullible so often do.

    • Anonymous
      Posted August 30, 2020 at 9:59 pm | Permalink

      Had we voted Remain in 2016 do you seriously think we’d have the pound today ?

      • hefner
        Posted August 31, 2020 at 5:57 am | Permalink

        Yes obviously, as first Gordon Brown then David Cameron had confirmed that the UK would not enter the euro area. And this had been fully accepted by the EU and further confirmed in the text ‘Opt Out from Closer Union’ that the PM brought back from Brussels in February 2016.
        What is very interesting in your question is that it denotes either an ignorance, a forgetfulness, or a complete misunderstanding of things EU-related.

        • Edward2
          Posted August 31, 2020 at 8:55 am | Permalink

          Had remain won in 2016 it would been presented as not only a ringing endorsement of our membership of the EU but it would have taken as a signal for the UK to be a more involved member.
          At the heart of Europe
          At the top table
          Good EU members.
          In my opinion the supporters of the EU in government and media would have restated their campaign for taking the UK into the Eurozone.

          • hefner
            Posted August 31, 2020 at 3:10 pm | Permalink

            Conjecture, conjecture.

          • bill brown
            Posted August 31, 2020 at 3:32 pm | Permalink

            Edward 2

            You are contradicting yourself . A few days ago you asked for me to stop asking for references now you are saying I lack them, when asking a question.
            Can you make up your mind?
            there is a good felllow.

          • Edward2
            Posted August 31, 2020 at 6:23 pm | Permalink

            opinion opinion

          • Edward2
            Posted August 31, 2020 at 6:28 pm | Permalink

            bill
            It is about you not me.
            I give just my opinions.
            This is not a University essay site where you have to use Harvard references and give appendices with links to sites to prove your argument is correct.

            You just dislike my opinions.
            Which is fine.

            But continually demanding that I provide you with all the data and sources and facts and links when you have never ever ever provided any yourself is quite simply ridiculous.

          • bill brown
            Posted September 1, 2020 at 1:32 pm | Permalink

            Edward 2

            you are contradicting yourself again, when your opinions are substantitae we are grateful but it does not happen very often.
            There is scope for significant improvements.

            thank you

          • Edward2
            Posted September 1, 2020 at 4:49 pm | Permalink

            I am not contradicting myself bill.
            You keep coming on and demanding from me and others that we provide you with facts figures links data and sources.
            And when you post yourself you rarely if ever produce any of these items yourself.
            The contradiction is therefore all yours.

  32. Anonymous
    Posted August 30, 2020 at 9:58 pm | Permalink

    Piers Corbyn gets a £10k fine for protesting against lockdown.

    BLM protesters get nothing.

    Just what is going on ?

    • Zorro
      Posted August 31, 2020 at 9:00 pm | Permalink

      BLM is controlled opposition.

      Zorro

  33. Lindsay McDougall
    Posted August 31, 2020 at 12:24 am | Permalink

    I like the fact that sterling is floating freely but I would like to know if our balance of payments is still in deficit, or has it moved into the black.

    • hefner
      Posted August 31, 2020 at 5:47 am | Permalink

      2020Q1 minus £21,146m. (30/06/2020) on ons.gov.uk Look for ‘Balance of Payments’.

    • bill brown
      Posted August 31, 2020 at 7:08 am | Permalink

      Lindsay Macdougall

      Just look it up it is not that difficualt and the answer is No

      • NickC
        Posted August 31, 2020 at 12:15 pm | Permalink

        Yet you don’t look up quite simple things yourself, Bill. Shouldn’t you do what you advise others?

        • bill brown
          Posted August 31, 2020 at 3:23 pm | Permalink

          NIckC

          We were talking about a historical perspective which I have already answered under this heading, so please do me the favour and read the rest , before you make a judgement.
          thank you for your patience and benevolence

  34. agricola
    Posted August 31, 2020 at 5:12 am | Permalink

    Sterlings real value will be governed by the path the UK government takes after we have left the EU in 2021. It is not so much whether we have a deal with the EU or not, it is the perception of where we are heading. Remember Sterling is a gambling commodity so perception is most important. Our trade negotiator with the rest of the World and our Chancellor have a very real challenge, especially as Covid will be hovering worldwide over the whole process. I think it would help if our Health and Education ministries ceased trying to micro manage and left more responsibility in the hands of those who have to work through the fluctuating decision msking.

  35. Adam
    Posted August 31, 2020 at 5:35 am | Permalink

    The description of ‘No progress’ on a Brexit deal is often made by misfits.

    Refusing to accept the EU’s expectations, and their recurring demands for our being subservient to their ways, is more like progress toward securing our enduring independence.

    As some punk wrote on a banner at the Silver Jubilee: Queen Rules OK !

  36. DavidJ
    Posted August 31, 2020 at 6:39 am | Permalink

    “So why no rush by the pro Remain forces”

    Because they are truly the enemy within and will stop at nothing to do us harm.

  37. bill brown
    Posted August 31, 2020 at 7:07 am | Permalink

    Sir Jr,

    the pound stood at US$ 1.32 and EURO 1,50 back in 2016 and this is the sort of time period to look at the trends in currencies. So, on that basis I will not even use your time or my time to comment on your so-called Remainer argument because I know you know better. Poor

  38. BetterTimesAhead
    Posted August 31, 2020 at 9:20 am | Permalink

    We have left the EU.

    We’re all “Remainers” now.
    We all Remain outside the EU. Thank Heavens!

    • bill brown
      Posted August 31, 2020 at 3:22 pm | Permalink

      BetterTimesAhead

      I did not use that terminology our host did and I disagree with you

      thank you

  39. bill brown
    Posted August 31, 2020 at 3:28 pm | Permalink

    Edward2

    Lynn needs to start somewhere, you really do not have enough to do, do you ?

    • Edward2
      Posted August 31, 2020 at 6:30 pm | Permalink

      please see above bill
      you are in the wrong place again

  • About John Redwood


    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, and graduated from Magdalen College Oxford. He is a Distinguished fellow of All Souls, Oxford. A businessman by background, he has set up an investment management business, was both executive and non executive chairman of a quoted industrial PLC, and chaired a manufacturing company with factories in Birmingham, Chicago, India and China. He is the MP for Wokingham, first elected in 1987.

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