UK GDP up 15.5%

The third quarter figures for UK growth were a record – up 15.5%. So far so good.

That was not nearly enough. It was the direct result of the large collapse the previous quarter under lockdown, and the efforts of the Treasury to get the housing market moving with a Stamp Duty cut and the restaurant trade working with generous special incentives.

If we look at the IMF forecasts for 2020 growth around the world we see a much better outlook for the USA, at minus 3.5% for the whole year, compared to the main European countries clustered either side of 10% down for the year. Their forecasts are not going to be that wide of the mark, looking at the latest third quarter figures. They see Spain down 12.8%, Italy 10.6%, France and the UK both down 9.8% and Germany down 6%. All but Germany have been very badly damaged by the virus and by the economic measures taken to counter it.

So why has the USA done so much better? After all its own virus death rate is similar to the UK’s and considerably higher than Germany’s. Large parts of the USA escaped full lock down, which helped. More importantly the Fed put in a much bigger boost than the Bank of England or the ECB which helped a lot. The US has many more of the large and successful tec corporations which boomed on the back of us all moving to an on line world for so many things. Old shops in Europe closed temporarily or permanently whilst people went shopping with Amazon.

The UK government needs to learn from the US experience. President Trump’s tax cuts helped. The deregulations helped. The technology clusters helped. Above all a very responsive Central Bank that promised to do whatever it needed to save the US economy and the world turned things round from their decisive interventions at the end of March.

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260 Comments

  1. Andy
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 5:42 am | Permalink

    The US has not amputated itself from the worlds largest and most successful trading bloc – which is on its doorstep.

    And whilst the US is also run by an incompetent idiot it did one thing that was very good. Rather than pumping money into the economy by giving it to banks, it gave it to people. And people spend it! Staggering.

    I look forward to receiving my £1000 cheque from the Tories. I pay these incompetent clowns enough of my money and they spaff it up a wall on dodgy products made by companies run by their friends.

    Hard rain is coming.

    • forthurst
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 7:32 am | Permalink

      Such a way with words: all three hundred of them.

    • Richard1
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:19 am | Permalink

      How can the US be doing well when it isn’t in the EU? Or Canada. Or australia. Or Singapore. Or Switzerland. All very confusing.

      • glen cullen
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:42 am | Permalink

        +1

      • Ian @Barkham
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 10:05 am | Permalink

        +1

      • Drachi
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 4:53 pm | Permalink

        It’s not how things appear to be for the present time it’s the potential for the future we should be looking at. For instance the US is a long standing federation of 50 states whereas the EU is only a newly formed union of 27 states and has not reached federation status yet- but is working on it- apples and oranges. They say that Ukraine alone with its vast wheaten plains can be the bread basket for the whole of Europe and then after Putins departure when Russia comes in line with its gas and other mineral wealth? well! and all of this happening you see how the European region is placed to expand and by then with a total consumer base heading up to one billion- this is the future as I see it- but I don’t love in your miserable little country thank heavens

        • Know-Dice
          Posted November 14, 2020 at 7:48 pm | Permalink

          And how well did that end when Germany tried it twice in the last century and we don’t see much of the Soviet Union now either…

          • margaret howard
            Posted November 15, 2020 at 12:07 am | Permalink

            Know-Dice

            “… and we don’t see much of the Soviet Union now either…”
            ===

            Nor the British Empire.

          • Know-Dice
            Posted November 16, 2020 at 9:24 am | Permalink

            Reply to Margaret Howard,

            That proves my point, conglomerates of diverse cultures always disintegrate in the end, just a question of how long…

            Of course the USA and Australia are different in that they have overwhelmed the indigenous populations…

    • Everhopeful
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:33 am | Permalink

      If Biden is actually shoehorned into presidency* the US will have an immediate 6 week ( or there about ) imprisonment of healthy and innocent people. Just like here.
      That will begin the slippery slide to all things “ Great Reset”.
      Like a Universal Income …when the economy is destroyed. Just like here.
      Andy, dear Andy. Never mind your Marxism …we are ALL f******* big time!

      * proof of the huge scam….globalists DESPERATE not to get Trump. He does not cooperate!

    • Sea_Warrior
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:41 am | Permalink

      Meanwhile, the EU wallows in the wake of a surging Asia.

    • Arthur Wrightiss
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:53 am | Permalink

      For our correspondent on the planet Zog.

    • NickC
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:20 am | Permalink

      That would be rather difficult, Andy – the USA is the world’s largest and most successful trading bloc.

    • Caterpillar
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 10:44 am | Permalink

      Andy,

      I partly agree with second part of second sentence. USA approach was much more equitable than UK and resources were maintained mobile. Sunak was inequitable, resources were made immobile and zombie businesses that would have closed anyway were supported (drop of insolvency rates). The USA is in a position where it can make up its output gap much more effectively than UK (pending individual state lockdowns). Unlike you I suspect this is because of President Trump being performance/performance measure driven.

      Second stimulus arguments, legal cases and Senate run offs could change things markedly. Assuming these issue don’t destroy the economic recovery, the USA will make up its output gap, GDP growth will continue, yields up then interest rates up.

    • ukretired123
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 10:52 am | Permalink

      Andy don’t disappoint us and offer your advice to Boris instead of hijacking Sir John’s blog with your own bog?
      Ps How’s the weather in Brussels?

    • steve
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 11:30 am | Permalink

      Why £1000 ? where do you get that figure from ?

      • Wonky Moral Compass
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:05 pm | Permalink

        Is it the deposit needed for an Ursula von der Leyen real doll?

    • Mike Wilson
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 3:55 pm | Permalink

      The US has not amputated itself from the worlds largest and most successful trading bloc

      You seem to fancy yourself as a bit of a know-all. Care to predict how much trade will fall between us and the EU?

      How much will our exports to the EU fall in the calendar year 2021? Care to offer a percentage?

      How much will our imports to the Eu fall in the calendar year 2020? Care to offer a percentage?

      As always, no response is expected. When it comes to responding to specific points rather you always offer no response. You just make daft statements like that we have ‘amputated’ ourself from a trading bloc. Utter nonsense, of course.

      Here are my predictions:

      0% and 0%.

      • Andy
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 7:21 pm | Permalink

        Trade will almost certainly fall – because your Brexit erects significant trade barriers where formerly there were none. European countries will not want to waste their time and money processing your pointless paperwork and leaving their drivers in your pointless traffic jams when they can secure alternatives from elsewhere. They’ll gradually buy products from elsewhere – and you can carry on moaning about foreigners and fish as your children and grandchildren get progressively poorer compared to their European counterparts.

        My one hope is that you all live long enough to watch us undo your project of hate – and that we get to axe your pensions in your final years, though not before we start paying them in Euros first.

        • Edward2
          Posted November 14, 2020 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

          It is weird that you think a free and voluntary vote is
          a somehow “a project of hate”
          Perhaps the most dreadful thing you have ever said on here.

          You have never been and you never will be a democrat.

        • Mike Wilson
          Posted November 15, 2020 at 8:30 am | Permalink

          Trade will ALMOST certainly fall.

          Hmm, that doesn’t sound too draconian. Let’s pretend it does. Will we eat less food as a result? I’d say ‘no’. We’ll either eat more home grown food or import food from non EU countries as needed.

          What about cars? If they become too expensive, more great British cars will be sold.

          Given the massive trade imbalance we have with the EU, IF trade reduces, it will be to the benefit of this country.

          The weird thing about this country is our lack of pride in anything we do or make. I think leaving the EU will be the best thing we have ever done.

        • NickC
          Posted November 15, 2020 at 11:37 am | Permalink

          Andy said: “Trade will almost certainly fall”. I’m counting on it. We were becoming far too dependent on the rotten EU political system. As with investments, we needed to diversify. It will be for the best in the medium and long term. And don’t bank on the young being as bitter as you are, unable to adjust to change.

      • steve
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:08 pm | Permalink

        Mike Wilson

        It’s pointless asking him to explain himself, he never engages, doesn’t have the guts.

        You’d have more success digging a hole in your lawn and asking an actual worm.

  2. Freeborn John
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 6:48 am | Permalink

    Having jettisoned Cummings Boris can’t afford to alienate Leavers further with a Brexit sellout. We need a clean brexit with no EU power left to play silly buggers in future. If that can be achieved with a FTA then Ok but we need to read the small print very, very carefully. If not we can enjoy the tariff revenue on their trade surplus while fish stocks are replenished. But Boris is in the last chance saloon with Leave voters now and must deliver true independence.

    • Andy
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:17 am | Permalink

      Don’t worry. They are building your pointless lorry parks. They are hiring tens of thousands of unnecessary pen-pushers. Prices will rise – as you voted for. Jobs and investment are going – as per your vote. Our international status has been ravaged – just like you voted for. And just going on holiday will cost you more and be massively more hasslesome.

      You will get everything you voted for – except fewer of the type of ‘foreigners’ you really don’t like – and you will hate it. You’ll still be whining when we undo it in a handful of years from now – and the perpetrators will be prosecuted.

      Enjoy your Brexit disaster. I am very much enjoying laughing at how silly you all are.

      • NickC
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:33 am | Permalink

        Andy, So, not your “55,000 pen-pushers” this time? And haven’t you already predicted that there will be no truck traffic anyway – because trucking agreements are unknown without EU membership? Have you yet got an answer as to why the UK alone amongst the other 165 nations on the planet cannot manage perfectly well without the EU’s “assistance”? No? Your desperation is showing.

        • Andy
          Posted November 14, 2020 at 7:44 pm | Permalink

          It is Michael Gove who has confirmed that you will need approximately 50,000 customs pen pushers for your Brexit. He confirmed this in Parliament on 27 February in an answer to MP Justin Madders. Mr Gove has subsequently been asked numerous times how many he has actually hired so far – and he refuses to answer.

          I appreciate that you cannot believe a word Gove says but you should take it up with him. He promised less bureaucracy and is having to hire tens of thousands of pen pushers anyway.

          As for your lorry parks – yes. Many hauliers will struggle to be able to the EU at all – because there are limits on licences. But the lorry parks are needed for those that will continue to travel. Brexit does not end trade. It just makes it significantly more bureaucratic- and that makes it slower and more expensive.

          As for your boring and predictable ‘165 countries’ nonsense – which I answer regularly – of course we can manage outside the EU. We will just be poorer because you have made trade harder. If you had fought and won the referendum on the basis that you would make people significantly worse off and that you’d create masses more bureaucracy and make everything more hasslesome then you’d have a mandate for the Brexit you are delivering. But you basically promised the opposite and it was lies. And you lied because you couldn’t win by telling the truth.

          • Fred H
            Posted November 14, 2020 at 10:03 pm | Permalink

            all great news – far less trade with EU – BUY BRITISH!

          • Edward2
            Posted November 14, 2020 at 11:35 pm | Permalink

            We will not have to pay over 12 billion a year to your undemocratic empire.
            Plenty of money to pay for a few extra staff.
            Most will be transferred from other jobs so not act extra.

            The lorry parks are in case your friends in the EU deliberately play us up.

            Trade is completed between individuals.
            Not bureaucrats.
            They will fail if they try to impede trade.

            You want a future for our world where it is ruled by large blocs.
            You hope for socialism.
            That is what drives you.
            But everywhere socialism has infected the world it can be plainly demonstrated to be a failure.

          • NickC
            Posted November 15, 2020 at 12:41 pm | Permalink

            Well, that’s progress, Andy, you now accept that we can manage outside the EU. Your guess is that we will be poorer. But it’s just a guess. And a guess which you continue to fail to justify. Why will the UK be unable to manage at least as well as we do now under EU control? The reality of course is that our success is entirely up to us. It’s just easier to be successful when we control our own destiny, instead of having indifferent – or even corrupt – foreigners deciding for us.

            Michael Gove did not “confirm” we will need 55,000 extra penpushers as you claim. Gove simply confirmed that it was feasible to recruit and train an extra 50,000 HMRC staff. He did not confirm that would be the number necessary, nor even make a prediction of any number. As usual you swallow Guardian/EU propaganda without thinking or checking – frankly your routine inaccuracy (not just an occasional mistake) is shocking.

      • loretta wight
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:54 am | Permalink

        and when we have to join the Euro? cost will rise too. Add to this the big expenses, pensions, and wages of the unelected …an institution that cant even get its audit passed. No one in their right mind would put money or join an institution that cant get its audits passed. Things are going up anyway. That is how markets work..wages go up so does prices . No rocket science. Either way you have to respect democracy . Live with it and get on with it. There is crystal ball. No one knows what will happen long term The EU is an institution based upon building empires . Empires to survive have to expand. However , the woke society should be right to abolish this as we have spend years trying to destroy empires. It doesn’t make sense to keep one going. Institution come and go , this one is all about power and greed yes jobs for the boys too ,just like the past.

      • agricola
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:59 am | Permalink

        You sound more desperate as time passes, what have you done with the plague of locust.

      • steve
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 11:28 am | Permalink

        Andy

        Tell me Andy, do you actually have the guts to speak what you do in public ?

        It’s odd, because I don’t see you lasting five minutes if you did.

        • bill brown
          Posted November 14, 2020 at 11:37 pm | Permalink

          Steve,

          With all duerespect you are not doing too well personally

          • NickC
            Posted November 15, 2020 at 12:43 pm | Permalink

            Bill, With all due respect you are not doing too well either.

        • Edward2
          Posted November 15, 2020 at 11:53 am | Permalink

          Steve
          I’ve noticed whenever people start a sentence by saying “with all due respect” they always end it with a cheap shot insult.

      • No Longer Anonymous
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 11:30 am | Permalink

        You hated us before Brexit. Which is why you got YOUR Brexit.

        Enjoy.

        (On the back of your little rant I went out in the rain and the wind and smashed my personal best in my weekly 5k hill run. Thanks. I’m feeling grrrreat !)

      • Freeborn John
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 12:13 pm | Permalink

        Prices will fall as tariff-free alternatives to EU produce enter the U.K. market. The exchequer will benefit from tariffs that unreconcilable Remainers pay to buy over-priced goods from the EU.

        Brexit won’t affect my holiday because I wouldn’t go to Benidorm to sit with Remainers with socks on their head.

        Everything that Remainers have predicted failed to come to pass. House prices didn’t fall 18%. The predicted 1/2 million jobs lost immediately after June 16 and eventual 3 million was very far from the mark as employment rose. The stock market crash never happened and the FTSE is actually massively up. The end of peace in Europe and end of western civilisation never happened. Remain couldn’t convince the country with those pessimistic lies in 2016 and you certainly are not fooling anyone now. Defeatist Remainer pessimist like yourself are a busted flush with the bad faith of the EU since 2016 proving Leavers could see in advance what you cannot even with the benefit of hindsight.

        • Andy
          Posted November 14, 2020 at 7:48 pm | Permalink

          There is zero chance that most prices will go down. As usual anyone who mentions tariffs just proves that they know nothing about trade.

          And Brexit will affect any holidays you take to anywhere in the EU, except Ireland. You will soon need an ETIAS visa waiver, your driving licence will not be valid and if you are old and/or sick enjoy the Brexit premium on your travel insurance.

          • steve
            Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:33 pm | Permalink

            Andy

            Brexiteers usually have no desire to go to stinking EU countries for a holiday.

            I think you are pathetically trying to resurrect project fear…..it won’t work don’t waste your time.

            Use the time for benefit of the community – there must be some little old lady near you who needs the gutters clearing, bit of garden work etc.

          • Edward2
            Posted November 14, 2020 at 11:36 pm | Permalink

            Tariffs will reduce.
            Why will prices increase.
            Explain.

      • Mike Wilson
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 3:56 pm | Permalink

        Surely the point of a lorry park is to park lorries. How is that pointless? Are you saying they won’t be used?

      • Dennis Zoff
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 4:06 pm | Permalink

        Andy, you sound desperate!

      • Ed M
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 4:54 pm | Permalink

        @Andy,

        I accept the argument that the end doesn’t justify the means.

        But can’t you first see why Brexit (in theory at least) is a good thing? Why Sovereignty is a good thing?

        Sovereignty of a nation is connected to sovereignty of an individual (and sovereignty of a family and of things like owning your own home).

        Don’t you see this?

        Why shouldn’t a country be free? (How that country achieves freedom is another argument – although related). But can’t you first admit that a country should first aim to be free (and then take things from there).

        • Ed M
          Posted November 14, 2020 at 4:58 pm | Permalink

          (Sadly, not all Brexiters think deeply enough about ‘Sovereignty’ – and instead of LOVE of country, it can be, to a degree, HATRED of The EU).

          Sovereignty and Patriotism are both GREAT things. And we have to do more to create a positive image of sovereignty and patriotism instead of just focusing on the negatives of being part of The EU.

          Once we focus on the negatives of being part of The EU with an even strong image / vision of the positives of Sovereignty and Patriotism, then Brexit will be far, far stronger and happen much, much quicker (whilst bearing in mind that the ends don’t justify the means in which bad means can lead to the scuppering of the good ends).

          • Dennis Zoff
            Posted November 14, 2020 at 11:40 pm | Permalink

            Oh, and there was me thinking it was about the EU’s utter incompetence, cronyism, home for discredited Politicians, destructive profligacy, stomach-churning personal greed, neo-communistic tendencies and a monumental 1930s style nation states/sovereignty power grab….Stalin would be proud!

          • Ed M
            Posted November 15, 2020 at 11:16 am | Permalink

            @Dennis

            I agree there is a lot wrong with the EU. But some / a lot about what is wrong about it is exaggerated too.

            However, even if the EU was brilliant, that still doesn’t take away from the argument why the UK should be sovereign.

            I support sovereignty and patriotism – but I want more people to have a more positive VISION of why sovereignty / patriotism is brilliant instead of just focusing so much on the negatives of the EU.

            Even in business it’s like where you want people to buy your product not because the competition are rubbish (which they may or may not be) but because your product is brilliant. So this argument works at every level – from the business level to the philosophical!

            Let’s get more people to buy into Brand Britain because Brand Britain is Brilliant (or could be if more people rallied around) …

          • Dennis Zoff
            Posted November 15, 2020 at 7:26 pm | Permalink

            Thank you Ed M.

            On your note regarding

            …..Let’s get more people to buy into Brand Britain…..

            I whole heartily agree, in particular with regards to re-industrialization of Britain.

            The opinion regarding the EU’s insidious incompetence is not born from reading third hand articles or wrapped up positive/negative media propaganda, but from close up first hand experience.

            My North American/European/UK companies have suffered significantly over the years from EU political intervention. This has reduced wealth creation, caused significant lose of livelihoods through enforced redundancies and decreased stakeholder value.

            I personally make no bones about the abominable behavior of the EU/Brussels elite, with its divisive power grabbing project, and wish it be condemned to a simple footnote in history.

            Adore the European peoples, their lands and their unique cultures…..abhor the irrelevant EU.

    • glen cullen
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:47 am | Permalink

      I seem to remember the deadline and Boris’s own redline date for an FTA deal was the 15th October – we just don’t believe him anymore

      • steve
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:27 pm | Permalink

        glen

        Yeah, that’s what finally did it for me.

    • Dennis Zoff
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 4:04 pm | Permalink

      Perhaps a Boris Johnson last minute Brexit treachery is the seismic shift the general public need to drive them into action; resulting in a political reset in the UK. As it stands, clearly and demonstrably, the current crop of disingenuous self-seeking nefarious political parties (Lib/Lab/Con and the insignificant wannabees) are not up to the job.

      Although not particularly a fan of Farage, but given the current weak incumbents, he would be a shot in the arm for something different, rather than this continued chaotic incompetence displayed by today’s political class?

      Laurence Fox could be worth a punt in the near future?

      • M Davis
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 6:33 pm | Permalink

        +1 for Farage and +1 for Fox – why don’t they come together?

        • dixie
          Posted November 15, 2020 at 4:15 pm | Permalink

          Have you not seen what happens to those who challenge Farage’s popularty – he does not play well with others.

      • Fedupsoutherner
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:12 pm | Permalink

        +1

  3. Tabulazero
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 6:51 am | Permalink

    306 electors for Biden. An unassailable lead. Have you sent your letter yet ?

    It would be cowardly not to after you publicly announced that you would on your blog.

    Reply Mr Biden is not yet President elect.

    • margaret howard
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:21 am | Permalink

      Reply to reply

      Really? Even the Pope thinks he is Oh, and China as well.

      • NickC
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:34 am | Permalink

        So, two good reasons to be doubtful.

        • bill brown
          Posted November 14, 2020 at 11:34 pm | Permalink

          NickC

          You do write a lot of nonsense as Biden has won and has 6 million more votes, and has 290 votes, so just give it up and move on

          • a-tracy
            Posted November 15, 2020 at 10:35 am | Permalink

            Bill, like the other side did about Brexit, Trump, they just ‘gave it up and moved on’ did they! All those months with the loud shouty man outside parliament allowed to disturb the BBC news and C4 news, all those years people had to listen to moan, moan, moan, you’re stupid, you’re old and uneducated, you’re going to get locked up…. you have just unleashed this horrible side of politics that has been completely unedifying for four years and the opposing team won’t like it at all when its reversed. Just remember who started this awful dragging down of acceptance.

          • NickC
            Posted November 15, 2020 at 12:46 pm | Permalink

            And you believe everything that China and this Pope say, Bill? Really?

      • steve
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 10:42 am | Permalink

        MH

        “Really? Even the Pope thinks he is Oh, and China as well.”

        =======

        That is as relevant as you saying he is, i.e totally irrelevant.

      • ukretired123
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 5:13 pm | Permalink

        Pope has not blessed Biden yet madam.

      • Peter VAN LEEUWEN
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 6:38 pm | Permalink

        A more sinister scenario cannot yet be totally ruled out. A vice-versa stealing of the the elections FROM the democrats by trying to make electors vote for Trump in spite of the election results. Unlikely to succeed but openly speculated about.

        • Edward2
          Posted November 14, 2020 at 11:37 pm | Permalink

          Wierd conspiracy theory.

        • NickC
          Posted November 15, 2020 at 12:49 pm | Permalink

          PvL, Sinister? And the appointments of Selmayr and von der Leyen were democratic in which way?

          • Dennis Zoff
            Posted November 15, 2020 at 3:11 pm | Permalink

            NickC

            Best not interrupt PvL’s penchant for prejudiced -EU rose coloured- meanderings!

    • Martin in Cardiff
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:22 am | Permalink

      The verification of the remaining votes in key states has now reached the point where even if Trump got every single one they would not outnumber Joe Biden’s lead.

      Their courts have also thrown out Trump’s suits, and legal firms are withdrawing from representation.

      If Georgia’s manual recount were not completed in time, then it is possible that Republicans there could appoint their own college voters to vote against the will of the people, outrageous as that might appear, but that would not give Trump anywhere near 270 votes either.

      • graham1946
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:30 am | Permalink

        So you advocate forming a government based on news reports rather than a confirmed result.

        • steve
          Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:23 pm | Permalink

          graham

          Yes he would, as long as the reports came from left wing biased media.

        • bill brown
          Posted November 14, 2020 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

          graham 1946

          Wake up to reality and live it, nothing in teh US election will change that Biden takes over in January

          • NickC
            Posted November 15, 2020 at 12:52 pm | Permalink

            And until then at least, Bill, Trump is PotUS – since we are awaiting official confirmation about Biden stealing the election.

    • Harkin
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:29 am | Permalink

      reply to reply

      It’s this type of head in the sand nonsense that has us the trouble we’re in

    • villaking
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 2:47 pm | Permalink

      Sir John, refusing to recognise Joe Biden as President Elect is childish and beneath you. In 2016, you publicly recognised Trump as President Elect (on this blog) within a week of the election, before the electoral college had met to make it official and whilst some in the Democrat camp were making unfounded allegations of electronic vote rigging in swing states. Almost all national leaders and media outlets refer to Biden as the President Elect as is customary after a clear win despite not being technically correct until the electoral college meets. So why do you not recognise Joe Biden as President Elect?

      • Edward
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 5:35 pm | Permalink

        Thee Democrats have bern disputing the election of President Trump for over 4 years.
        Relax.
        A few more days won’t make much difference.

      • steve
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:21 pm | Permalink

        villaking

        “Sir John, refusing to recognise Joe Biden as President Elect is childish and beneath you”

        Biden cannot be President Elect during investigations into electoral fraud, baseless or otherwise.

        Nothing Childish about it, that’s just how it works.

    • M Davis
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 6:39 pm | Permalink

      I thought he was President Elect Presumptive until January 20th 2021!

  4. Sea_Warrior
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 6:57 am | Permalink

    (1) I don’t need tax cuts – but I do need freeing from effective house arrest so I can spend my money.
    (2) I gather that Rishi Sunak is being called on to increase CGT. What would that mean for me? I won’t be liquidating any assets in the next tax-year. I will take some gains this year, before he changes the allowances, parking the money in premium bonds. And I will then wait until saner heads prevail in the Treasury. If the government wants me to spend, generating VAT, it should leave CGT well alone. It has taxed my wealth already, when it levied income tax at 40%. I don’t think I should be penalised for thrift.
    (3) Before the government contemplates any tax increases, it must stop wasting the money it already gets. This week: a needless road-burying project at Stonehenge. And more money for cycle-ways while the life is slowly be squeezed out of Aviation.
    (4) I would be interested in learning of how much government ‘product’ has bounced back. Less than the figure for the private sector, I’d wager.

    • a-tracy
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:45 am | Permalink

      They’re gearing up for a big Black Friday sale on line, personally I think this should be forced to be suspended until December when the regular shops can open or the UK government should levy an extra vat tax to support the sector they have closed down.

    • fedupsoutherner
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:06 am | Permalink

      Sea Warrior, agree, I was gob smacked when I saw how much the government were prepared to spend to protect Stonehenge from pollution!!!!???? It makes no sense at all. Stonehenge will collapse one day anyway and surely there are more important things to spend that money on at the moment? The decisions coming out of Downing Street at the moment are truley mind blowing but not in a good way. Is Boris really in charge?

      • steve
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:17 pm | Permalink

        FUS

        “Is Boris really in charge?”

        No he isn’t. I’d like to know who works his strings, I’d suspect Globalists, NWO, Bilderberg group, perhaps.

        Clearly the guy is taking orders from someone / something else, and is absolutely NOT doing as we, the English people say.

      • turboterrier
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:40 pm | Permalink

        F U S
        No he isnot in charge and never has been. He is just a chance playing the easy odds. When push goes to shove he is barren of good powerful leadership abilities and cannot inspire people to go the extra mile. The way way out for him everytime. Just like his predecessor tries to talk a good act and is easily lead on outrageous ideas that they know they will not have to deliver. The only priority at the moment is not saving te world or the planet but to save this country for all the future generations that everybody seems to go on about. At the rate of the double talk, some and mirrors coming out of No 10 setting us up for total betrayal of the referendum there will be nothing left for the country to support its population. There has to be a complete directional change and if we have to use fossil fuels to do it or tracked gas so be it. We are nearly dead in the water and if Boris rolls over to the EU the people will know they have been well and truly shafted by useless wealth politicians, all these grandiou6 statements count for nothing if we do not get industry competitive and employing labour. We need a lesder and team to completely rethink and introduce changees of seismic proportions that will deliver achievable targets in growth and financial stability. The new generation career politicians are not fit for purpose and neither have the skills, knowledge and abilities to understand , operate and suceed in the industrial areas so critical to our future survival.

  5. Peter van LEEUWEN
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 7:01 am | Permalink

    Tradingeconomics . com appears to have updates its figures.
    Indeed it now shows the 15.5% for the UK. That’s great.
    But it shows different figures for the countries mentioned above.

    • a-tracy
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:51 am | Permalink

      PvL is Tradingeconomics.com usually more accurate than the IMF forecasts? Who to believe nowadays!

      • agricola
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:53 am | Permalink

        Know what they are trying to sell, then make your judgement.

      • hefner
        Posted November 15, 2020 at 3:22 pm | Permalink

        tradingeconomics.com reports actual (past) figures and IMF’s are forecasts (future). Apples, oranges. So what is your point?

  6. Mike Stallard
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 7:19 am | Permalink

    I do not pay much tax, so when I encourage you to pursue a low tax recovery, I do not have an ulterior motive – just common sense.

  7. John Halom
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 7:20 am | Permalink

    The bankers and politicians created this financial collapse and the virus scam to cover their gross mismanagement and criminality so the Fed is responsive all right. If the public at large ever catch on to the massive fraud they’ll need to be very, very responsive to avoid the mobs with pitch forks and burning torches. Hopefully that will extend to all those responsible.

    • Everhopeful
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:19 am | Permalink

      But don’t you see?
      The sheeple, being intimidated, brainwashed and refusing to vote properly have allowed all this to snowball.
      The slightest hint of what you suggest….
      Tiananmen Square !

  8. steve
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 7:42 am | Permalink

    JR

    Whilst I find your latest article to be excellently written, as always, I think the time for such topic is not now.

    During the coming weeks it is vitally important we keep the pressure on government to prevent BRINO.

    I am sure you are aware that if there is concessions to the ungrateful french – led EU, there will be little point in discussing the economy, since a successful UK economy independent of Brussels is what the EU are trying desperately to prevent. They seek to have us be seen to fail as a warning to the rest of he bloc.

    In my opinion you should focus a sustained and relentless attack on the EU.

    Behind the scenes you might also do Boris a favour by having a word in his shell – like, explaining something along the lines of :-

    ‘Look Boris for God’s sake man do you not realise what the people will do to you and the rest of us if you don’t walk away from the EU right now, not tomorrow, not in December, BUT RIGHT NOW ! ‘

    Boris should not underestimate the level of sheer anger out here….we are not joking, we mean it.

    If Boris is still not convinced and prefers to bite his nails and dither, I have a length of 4 x 6 you can borrow.

    Or better still just throw the useless nail biting ditherer out.

    Reply Two of my last four posts were about the need to just leave!

    • beresford
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:58 am | Permalink

      How are you going to express this anger bearing in mind that if you try to gather outside you will be enthusiastically baton-charged by the police? It’s a long time until the next election and very difficult to focus it on a single issue, especially when all the major parties are in accord. It may hinge on what actions JR and likeminded colleagues can take in Parliament, making it clear that if Boris tries to bounce BRINO through on opposition votes he will face a leadership challenge or even mass defection to a new pro-British party.

      • graham1946
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:42 am | Permalink

        He probably doesn’t care. I’ve been saying for a long time he will sell us out, just as the Tories have always done with the EU and retire in the New Year. I don’t think being PM is to his liking after all as it is all work and no baubles at the moment. I hope to apologise in the New year, but I will need to see the small print. He said he had an ‘oven ready’ deal then gave us the May deal which he has had to try to water down with his internal market stuff. He is not a details man, so should keep out of it and let the negotiators do their job. Having lost Cummings probably Lord Frost will resign next, then we will know his intentions.

      • NickC
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:46 am | Permalink

        Beresford, There are lots of things that can be done:
        – write to your MP;
        – write letters and comments to newspapers and blogs;
        – join a true Brexit party;
        – support Leave media and think-tanks;
        – vote for Leave candidates next year (if elections are not cancelled);
        – cease paying the BBC;
        – cease buying EU stuff;
        – encourage Leave Tories to defect to a party that really will get Brexit done!

        • Old Salt
          Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:43 pm | Permalink

          Also if, Sir John will permit the link, write to the Prime Minister. Just print the pdf and sign the excellent letter provided and send.

          https://facts4eu.org/news/2020_nov_Big_Brexit_Initiative

        • steve
          Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:11 pm | Permalink

          Nick C

          write to your MP; – usually a waste of ink.

          write letters and comments to newspapers and blogs – press is remain biased, blogs are usually taken down because the establishment doesn’t like the truth to circulate.

          join a true Brexit party – there isn’t one. Better prepare for a mass uprising, which is on it’s way.

          support Leave media – where it exists, cowers to political correctness.

          vote for Leave candidates next year (if elections are not cancelled); – I dare Boris Johnson to try and cancel elections.

          cease paying the BBC – sensible and patriotic people currently don’t.

          cease buying EU stuff – I don’t, and everyone I know does’nt either. Including Irish stuff.

          encourage Leave Tories to defect to a party that really will get Brexit done – they can’t be trusted, not one of them. Better throw them out and make sure they never again set foot in publicly funded office.

      • Simeon
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 10:25 am | Permalink

        Mass defections from the Tory Party would be a start, but the prospect of that is nil. Change through the ballot box is a pipe-dream given the present state of the electorate. Radical change is needed, but that will come only from a highly motivated, organised and ruthless minority, or from the radicalisation of the electorate. An economic collapse might do it – but as to the form and direction of the radicalisation, that is a crap shoot.

      • steve
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 11:16 am | Permalink

        beresford

        “How are you going to express this anger bearing in mind that if you try to gather outside you will be enthusiastically baton-charged by the police? ”

        ===============

        Bring it. Though when things do kick off the police would be well advised to keep out of it. Government cavalry should take a lesson from the national miners strike.

        “It’s a long time until the next election”

        ——-people declaring war on government makes that somewhat irrelevant.

        =======

        “It may hinge on what actions JR and likeminded colleagues can take in Parliament, making it clear that if Boris tries to bounce BRINO through on opposition votes he will face a leadership challenge or even mass defection to a new pro-British party.”

        ——I find this observation worthy of +1 well said.

        Indeed to remove a PM requires the effort to start from somewhere. It seems to me that the calibre of Sir Redwood, and IDS for example is a good choice.

        I suspect there to be a snag in as much that they know far more of what goes on in the corridors of power than we do. Though personally, I think Sir Redwood or IDS should ‘go for it’…..there will be no problem with public support.

        I think if, as you accurately hypothesise, Boris tries BRINO then a leadership challenge would be the least of his and his cohorts worries. They’ll find themselves running for their lives.

        As for a new pro – British party, someone mentioned pitchforks. So, the ‘Pitchfork Party’ seems appropriate given public’s anger. Even Hitler couldn’t beat the English Pitchforkers.

    • JoolsB
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:18 am | Permalink

      Reply to reply:- “Two of my last four posts were about the need to just leave”

      With respect John, your posts are for our eyes only unless Johnson reads them so as Steve says, you need to have a word with your dithering leader. As so often, you are on the same page on most things with those of us on this site and it’s such a pity you are wasted on the back benches especially when most of the Cabinet, Conservatives in name only but anything but, seem to be clueless and totally out of touch with the mood of the country on so many things, unlike yourself. Can you tell us John, do you ever pass on any of our responses to your posts back to Cabinet, Downing Street in particular? Would they even be interested in their arrogance?
      Are they aware or do they even care that most us who voted leave did not vote for a deal and your party will NEVER be forgiven if they capitulate to the EU on their demands which we all suspect they will.

      Reply Yes of course the government knows my views.They are published here and also stated in Parliament And in conversations

      • steve
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:01 pm | Permalink

        JR

        JR’s reply –
        “Yes of course the government knows my views.They are published here and also stated in Parliament And in conversations”

        Skilfully avoided Sir Redwood….I’m impressed.

        Yes the Government knows your views, yes they are published here…and now the catch: ‘in Parliament’ which is not the same as warning Boris person to person. This is what we ask.

        Someone needs to get this dithering globalist’s puppet on his own and warn him in no uncertain terms that our betrayal will unleash terrible consequences……he really has taken himself and his party into extremely dangerous territory.

        • Fred H
          Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:58 pm | Permalink

          The real question is – does Carrie or any other adviser read it? And is Boris remotely interested in what the electorate think?

    • glen cullen
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:55 am | Permalink

      BRINO is worst than staying in the EU and would be the biggest attack on our democracy in a millennium

    • steve
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 10:50 am | Permalink

      JR

      “Reply Two of my last four posts were about the need to just leave!”

      ===========

      Yes, I know, and your work is much appreciated sir Redwood. However I am suggesting a sustained focus.

      What will cause a war on the streets between government and the people is betrayal by dithering remainer Boris Johnson.

      He has to go, now !

  9. Lifelogic
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 7:42 am | Permalink

    Indeed the temporary cut in stamp duty should be made permanent and should clearly go much further. This as up to 15% stamp duty turnover tax is absurd. It seems Boris (or is it Carrie now) is going to bring forward the ban on petrol and diesel cars, announce lots more green crap and red tape and then we have the absurd proposed huge increases in CGT taxes.

    This should all help to kill any recovery. Then, due to the lack of any sensible small government, cheap energy, bonfire of red tape, tax cutting Conservatives we will get stagnation and Labour/SNP in 2024.

    • fedupsoutherner
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:12 am | Permalink

      L/L ‘It seems Boris (or is it Carrie now) is going to bring forward the ban on petrol and diesel cars, announce lots more green crap and red tape and then we have the absurd proposed huge increases in CGT taxes. ‘

      Perhaps he sees it as a way to get in Biden’s good books? They haven;t even been able to sort out how people in high rises and places where they can’t park outside of their homes are going to charge their cars yet. Perhaps that is the plan. Get the plebs off the roads and save them the bother of having to build new roads. Only the wealthy will be driving, flying and cruising in the future, just as it was 70 years ago. We have a country that is going backwards.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted November 15, 2020 at 3:55 am | Permalink

        Indeed an insane policy driven by an anti-science group thing religion.

  10. Sakara Gold
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 7:52 am | Permalink

    I have seen the 15.9% increase in economic output figure elsewhere, so it’s probably correct. However, let us put this into perspective. It should be offset by the percentage increase in weekly deaths due to the Chinese plague virus. In the summer (July) – after the first lockdown – the BBC website reported weekly deaths at ~ 15. The current figure is 404. So the 15.9% increase in economic activity has been achieved at a cost of ~ 2600% increase in deaths.

    Total excess deaths in the UK are now reported at 70,000, even the government’s (spun) prefered measure has now exceeded 50,000. This is an appaling number, one’s heart breaks for the bereaved, we really should have done better.

    In the USA, Trump’s abject failure to deal with – and indifference to a death toll now approaching 240,000 casualties – has lost him the election. These fatalities have been the cost of “protecting” the US economy and it is typical of the man that he refuses to accept defeat magnanimously and accept that the American people want an effective plan to deal with the virus epidemic.

    Weak leadership, in-fighting, backstabbing and apportioning blame are a sure sign of corporate failure, as a previously successful company goes down the pan. As the party slumps in the polls and the narrow spectrum of right-wing opinion among MP’s affects the same indifference, unless a sudden outbreak of competence results from the current restructuring on the No10 operation Johnson seems unlikely to achieve another term as PM.

    • Martin in Cardiff
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:27 am | Permalink

      Johnson appears unlikely to complete even a single term.

      • fedupsoutherner
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:14 am | Permalink

        My God MIC, I actually agree with that comment. A friend of mine text me this morning asking how long will Boris last? I replied, how long will the Tory party last?

      • Sea_Warrior
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:29 am | Permalink

        I’m a Conservative Party member and would have voted for Johnson in the leadership election last year. Now? I want him turfed out on No 10 as quickly as possible. He spends like an extreme Socialist and does everything else like an extreme Liberal. I want Conservatism!

      • Fred H
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 10:48 am | Permalink

        A great pity he completed a single year! What a let-down.
        The Tories might as well put names in the hat and pull out the next leader. Could he/she do worse than the previous three?

        • Lifelogic
          Posted November 15, 2020 at 8:47 am | Permalink

          Conservative PMs (and Labour ones even worse) all my life (Ted Heath onwards) have been appalling with the partial exception of Lady Thatcher. But even Thatcher failed in very many ways – over European Treaties, failure to cut the state down to size, failed to cut taxes sufficiently, she closed many Grammar Schools, failed to get freedom and choice in healthcare and education, fell for the green crap and even made John Major the Chancellor (a man who could not even pass his maths O level) and who idiotically took us into the ERM (with her support one assumes).

      • Mike Wilson
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 3:58 pm | Permalink

        He struggles to complete a single sentence.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:44 am | Permalink

      But you cannot lock down for ever, it only delays deaths anyway. Many of the deaths reported as Covid will actually be false positives, died with Covid/not of it, and other causes of deaths combined with a false positive test from the over sensitive test they are using.

      A Professor Philip Thomas (of risk management) at Bristol suggest we might have ten times as many deaths due to the economic and other damage from the lock down as directly from Covid. One has to consider both sides of the risk/reward planning.

      Death per week currently are within the normal range for this time of year anyway only very slightly higher than the five year average.

      • fedupsoutherner
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:16 am | Permalink

        L/L ‘Death per week currently are within the normal range for this time of year anyway only very slightly higher than the five year average.’

        Probably because most deaths are as a result of the flu which occurs normally this time of the year.

      • JoolsB
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:38 am | Permalink

        + 1 Lifelogic.

      • glen cullen
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 10:05 am | Permalink

        Liverpool mass testing results – 100,849 tested only 292 positive (but not sick or showing symptoms)

        The results to date show that there isn’t an epidemic or even a medical or health issue

        • Lifelogic
          Posted November 15, 2020 at 4:01 am | Permalink

          What on earth is the point of this expensive mass tasting in Liverpool? Surely is we have spare testing capacity we can target the them rather better than this.

      • Ed M
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 5:01 pm | Permalink

        You’ve taken a very balanced approach on coronavirus overall from the beginning to now).

        You were rightly cautious at the beginning like any person should be about a new and potentially big problem (and in particular, people in business). Getting as much info as possible and working things out accordingly.

        And you’ve (rightly) altered your position as we’ve come to know more about the coronavirus (and its impact on the economy).

        • Lifelogic
          Posted November 15, 2020 at 8:51 am | Permalink

          Thanks, though I do think the initial shut down was justified to help the NHS cope. We did have about 12,000 excess deaths a week at one point. The initial shut down was however done rather too late and it could have been done more selectively and intelligently.

          The current lockdown will do far more harm than good.

          • Ed M
            Posted November 15, 2020 at 11:18 am | Permalink

            Again, I agree with you 100% on this.

    • NickC
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 11:44 am | Permalink

      Sakara Gold, The death toll rolled over on 10th April. The death toll curve was a classic pandemic curve – exponential rise to a maximum, then a slower exponential decay. There is not the slightest indication on the curve that the first lockdown had any affect whatsoever.

      Respiratory diseases – such as covid19 – always increase during the autumn and winter, only recovering with good weather in the spring. It has nothing to do with politics, or the recent partial economic recovery. And lockdowns are a disaster for non-covid patients’ health (the majority), as well as for the economy.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted November 15, 2020 at 8:55 am | Permalink

        “There is not the slightest indication on the curve that the first lockdown had any affect whatsoever”.

        This is simply not true. It was done too late and it was idiotic/criminal to dump infected patients back into care homes, but it did certainly flatten the peak somewhat and did reduce the peak numbers needing hospital treatment.

        • NickC
          Posted November 15, 2020 at 1:05 pm | Permalink

          Lifelogic, It is true. The covid19 mean time between infection and death (for those that die) is about four weeks. The time between the lockdown (24 March) and the peak on the death toll (10 April) was two and a half weeks.

          That means the reduction in deaths after 10 April, on average, clearly was not due to the lockdown, at least for one and a half weeks. But there was no secondary inflexion in the death toll curve (apart from blips due to reporting vagaries) after that. The lockdown changed nothing on the curve – you can see it yourself – so it changed nothing.

    • Philip P.
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:00 pm | Permalink

      Sakara G – Very poor reasoning. The idea that economic recovery (of a sort) somehow caused lots of deaths is grotesque. You ignore the context, that the elderly unfortunately die in larger numbers in colder months than in the summer. Also, the excess mortality now is not in hospitals and care homes. It’s in people’s homes, often among middle-aged people dying of conditions that could have been prevented, but for the shutdown of so much medical care when the NHS became the National Covid Service.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted November 15, 2020 at 9:00 am | Permalink

        Much truth in this though excess deaths are not that high currently. (Though one needs to bear in mind that of the 60K of excess deaths earlier in the year many would have being dying now so one might have expected a slightly lower figure than normal – one can only die once).

  11. Ian Wragg
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 7:55 am | Permalink

    The UK won’t learn from the USA because the civil Serpents hate the USA.
    Boris is about to cave to Brussels ensuring we stay in the world’s slow lane of innovation and growth.
    A tory government this is not.

    • Martin in Cardiff
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:30 am | Permalink

      Why would those of good sense want to learn anything from a country with a six-times higher per capita murder rate and absolutely appalling inequality?

      • a-tracy
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:20 am | Permalink

        Martin is that murder rate 6x higher in every State in the USA? Where did you get that stat from?

      • graham1946
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:52 am | Permalink

        It’s always been like that, a throwback to the wild west days and our own inequality is not something to be proud of, even in socialist Wales. We are talking economics here, unless of course you think the USA is not a successful country and prefer the ways of Russia or China.

      • steve
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 11:19 am | Permalink

        MiC

        Remember that you could well not exist, were it not for the USA. They are a divided nation, sure. But let them sort themselves out.

      • NickC
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 12:03 pm | Permalink

        But 11 times less than the murder rate in your favourite – Venezuela. And inequality is far less entrenched in the USA than in the EU empire.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:45 am | Permalink

      It seem so – we shall see.

    • JoolsB
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:36 am | Permalink

      “A tory government this is not.“

      We haven’t had one of those since 1990 Ian. You would think we would have learnt our lesson by now. Not much to pick between the red socialists and the blue socialists. Maybe it’s time to give Farage a chance.

      • Lifelogic
        Posted November 15, 2020 at 9:05 am | Permalink

        Indeed – when government spending as a percentage of GDP was circa 15% and not circa 50% as now.

        50% that is mainly pissed down the drain too.

  12. Alan Jutson
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:08 am | Permalink

    A good result given many businesses were still prevented from trading during some of this period.

    You are correct John we need less tax not more, businesses and the consumer need to replenish their reserves if they still have some, so they can still plan to spend, reduce their ability to spend and we take much longer to recover.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:48 am | Permalink

      Indeed we are hugely over taxed, over regulated and over charged for energy, roads and the likes.

      Given the current decimation of the economy and the hugely over taxed already position we need higher taxes like a hole in the head. But we can only have lower taxes when the government stops pissing money does the drain – HS2, green crap and Stonehenge must go for a start.

      • villaking
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:35 am | Permalink

        Stonehenge must go?

        • Lifelogic
          Posted November 15, 2020 at 4:07 am | Permalink

          The underpass proposal.

          My wife once had a job that meant she took some Italian students on a trip to see it. It was raining heavily and having seen it from a distance several refused to even get off the coach. I suppose if you have been to Pompeii, Herculaneum, Verona, Rome, Venice ……and in the sunshine.

      • Ian @Barkham
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 10:03 am | Permalink

        +1

      • Dennis Zoff
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 11:16 pm | Permalink

        Taxes, Taxes and more Taxes

        The Government needs exponential tax growth to prop up its gross incompetence, self-indulgent profligacy (reckless extravagance and inexcusable wastefulness of UK resources), bloated central government and the utter shambles that is Westminster’s civil dis-service….and of course, lest we forget, its growing assembly of valueless hangers-on in the House of Lords!

  13. Iain Moore
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:08 am | Permalink

    As the Green Ogar-fuhrer is about to decree that we aren’t going to be allowed to buy petrol cars in 10 years time, and no doubt compulsory tofu eating will be next, any hope of economic growth in the future is being killed off. With our electrical energy supply teetering on the edge of collapse as the windmills aren’t supplying the needed energy , the green enlightened one is somehow believing that our energy supply can magically magic up electrical power to supply all these electric cars. Worse as most of this green garbage needs government subsidies to exist we will be lucky to get away with zero growth.

    • Fedupsoutherner
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:05 pm | Permalink

      +100

    • Lifelogic
      Posted November 15, 2020 at 4:12 am | Permalink

      Indeed and they even idiotically want to force people to replace gas or oil heating with electric heating – creating even more electrical demand. Only perhaps 5% of MP understand science, physics, climate, logic, maths, energy or engineering. But they are good on irrational group think and virtue-signalling lunacy.

  14. Everhopeful
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:09 am | Permalink

    I have read that mass immigration boosts GDP.
    Is that why so many newcomers are being allowed in illegally?
    ( Although I think the authorities are now claiming there is no such thing as illegal immigration).

    • Sea_Warrior
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:44 am | Permalink

      What does ‘mass immigration’ do for GDP/capita and the deficit? Worsens them, I believe.

      • glen cullen
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 10:07 am | Permalink

        As the politicians and media would tell us; they become a national asset and therefore increase GDP

      • forthurst
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 2:58 pm | Permalink

        No it’s all gain: Social services, health services, police services, housebuilding, houseware, cars (taxis) etc. Not sure about the effect on our Current Account but there are always more businesses to sell and prime London properties available to sell (a process referred to by Tories as “Inward Investment” Geddit?). So a win win: import muticulti; export our heritage.

    • Lifelogic
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:01 am | Permalink

      Not alas GDP per cap certainly not in the short term anyway.

    • beresford
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:04 am | Permalink

      No they are being allowed in to break up the social cohesion of the British people and thereby prevent us from opposing the Great Reset to be imposed by the new world order. It is unclear whether our leaders directly support the final goal or whether they are just doing as they are told with no regard for the longer term.

      • NickC
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 12:05 pm | Permalink

        Beresford, Sadly correct.

      • Everhopeful
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 12:26 pm | Permalink

        Yes.
        Agree.
        I too wonder whether the MPs are all fully aware of the agenda.

    • Alan Jutson
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 6:29 pm | Permalink

      So called refugees.

      I see from reports that they are now compiling that the army camps they have been put up in free of charge are not fit for purpose, that the food that they get for free is not good enough, and the queues are too long.

      Simple answer, then why not go back to where you came from !

      Real Refugees, never in a million years !!!

      • dixie
        Posted November 15, 2020 at 5:09 pm | Permalink

        Sounds like the government is beginning to do something slight right – perhaps by mistake?

    • Ben
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 7:45 pm | Permalink

      Yes I remember when Dr Fox went to India a few years ago trying to drum up business the Indian Government said “yes” but first we want 100,000 visas for our people- well so as far as I know the great doctor high tailed it and really hasn’t been seen since.

      • Edward2
        Posted November 15, 2020 at 11:50 am | Permalink

        Odd then that exports to India rose 19.3% between 2017 and 2018 and this year there was an agreement to expand and deepen our trade relationship when the UK and India held the 14th joint economic and trade committee (JETCO) meeting.

        Dont believe everything you read in the Guardian and Independent

        • hefner
          Posted November 16, 2020 at 10:18 am | Permalink

          Report from the JETCO meeting on gov.uk website 29/07/2020.
          Trade UK-India was £24bn in 2019 a 9.74% increase from 2018.
          India is the world’s 3rd largest economy.
          Bilateral UK-India trade has been fluctuating between 2 and 3% of total UK-world trade.
          For goods the balance over the last five years (2014-2018) is ~55% for imports from India, ~45% exports from the UK.
          For services the balance over the last five years is ~52% exports from the UK, ~48% imports from India.

          From various documents on gov.uk, assets.publishing.services.gov.uk, tcpi.in, ukibc.com

  15. Mark B
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:47 am | Permalink

    Good morning.

    The USA did well because they had a leader and not a follower.

    End of !

    • hasten
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:18 am | Permalink

      Some leader? like Big Bird out of Sesame Street

    • JoolsB
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:28 am | Permalink

      +1

    • glen cullen
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 10:08 am | Permalink

      100% agree

    • Alan Jutson
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 2:22 pm | Permalink

      Mark B

      He was also a businessman and not a politician, so knew instinctively what was required , he also did not have to pick a so called “expert” to advise him of the bloody obvious either.

      • hefner
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 7:21 pm | Permalink

        ‘so he knew instinctively what was required’:
        This incredibly dumb argument that a businessperson is obviously better at anything related to governing than a politician would be is simply risible.

        Particularly when considering that any successful businessperson having developed a large enough company will have under them a COO, CFO, a number of Directors (of marketing, sales, user experience, R&D, …), and that to be successful the top person has to delegate and let the lower echelons have the freedom to act according to ‘a master plan’ of some kind.

        DJT appears never to have had such a master plan according to a number of books written by people having worked in his administration. A number of decisions appear to have been taken depending how DJT was feeling about them with very little attention given to the advices of military, foreign relations, economic, environmental, … experts.

        • NickC
          Posted November 15, 2020 at 1:12 pm | Permalink

          Hefner, That is one of the many differences between us – some (like you) want government run by a “master plan” – others (like me) want government run pragmatically by principles.

          • hefner
            Posted November 15, 2020 at 3:33 pm | Permalink

            Did I say that? No you put words in my mouth. I was just pointing out that the often circulated idea that a businessperson is obviously (‘instinctively’) better at governing is something that can be discussed, and I was try to show why such a point could be made.

            But the bolshevik in you has to jump on anything that does not conform to your own ideas.

            And just in case you cannot see the contradiction by yourself: pragmatism vs. principles?

          • Edward2
            Posted November 15, 2020 at 9:39 pm | Permalink

            The bolshevik in you…
            Why does holding a differt a opinion to you create such a huge reaction from you?
            Try to accept that other people dont have the exact same view as you.
            Hard as that may be hef

          • hefner
            Posted November 16, 2020 at 10:30 am | Permalink

            Edward2, you would be more credible if you were not jumping to comment on everything I write. Blimey, mine were comments responding to Alan and Nick, why do you think you have anything to contribute? Do you think that Nick and/or Alan are unable to comment if they wish to do so?

            ‘Try to accept that other people don’t have the exact same view as you’: very good and sensible, what about you also trying to adopt this nice maxim for your contributions.

          • Edward2
            Posted November 16, 2020 at 1:21 pm | Permalink

            Do I heff?
            Normally it is you and you pal bill coming on when I say anything to post with cheap insults.
            I’m free to write where and how I want thanks.
            It is up to Sir John to restrict posts not you and bill.
            You two should try to post without personal insults.
            Difficult I realise for you both, as it seems to be a habit with pro EU lefties.

  16. Fred H
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:49 am | Permalink

    I await the media speculation prior to the soon to be ex-PM appointing more highly qualified fools into positions of destruction.

    • Sea_Warrior
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:31 am | Permalink

      Speculation that Javid is to become the ‘Chief of Staff’, to act as a link with the back-benchers. Isn’t that what a PPS should be doing?

  17. oldtimer
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:51 am | Permalink

    I see little chance of this Johnson led government getting the economy moving forward. It’s instincts are to ban productive activities (because they are not deemed “green”) and to promote inefficient replacements for them. It is also, it appears, faction driven with the unelected Symonds at the head of one faction. Johnson’s domestic arrangements bode ill for any possible semblance of good government. The sooner the Conservative party replaces him the better it will be for the country at large.

  18. Bryan Harris
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:54 am | Permalink

    In a normal year that would be derisory, but now in the NEW NORMAL we are grateful for any crumbs of hope that we can get.

  19. Dave Andrews
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:17 am | Permalink

    What about why Germany has done so much better – only 6% down and with lower Covid deaths?
    No Donald Trump in charge there either.

    • a-tracy
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:51 pm | Permalink

      I’ve been advised on here that the Germans have a better health service and pharmaceutical testing laboratory sector than we do in the UK, faster to respond and had better success at early treatment and isolation.

    • Bryan Harris
      Posted November 15, 2020 at 8:22 am | Permalink

      Who says that Germany has been doing better – it really depends on which statistics you prefer

  20. Nivek
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:22 am | Permalink

    “The UK government needs to learn from the US experience.”

    On that note, I would like to highlight the quote below, from Wednesday’s Lords debate on the Covert Human Intelligence Sources (Criminal Conduct) Bill. David Davis has previously remarked (during the Commons’ Third Reading) that “there is a need for a Bill like this. Infiltrating terrorist gangs and going under cover as an informant is dangerous and risky work which often requires breaking the law, and the Bill enables authorisation of those breaches of the law”.

    The quote I wish to highlight is this, by Baroness Kennedy of the Shaws (emphases added):
    “As I said, agents may need to commit crime, but it cannot be acceptable or right to authorise the gravest of crimes—murder, torture, sexual transgression. Our security partners in the United States and Canada already place limits on the nature of the crimes that agents can commit. Canada recently passed legislation in this area which is worth looking at because it prohibits those serious offences quite clearly.”

  21. JohnE
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:24 am | Permalink

    I hear that Boris has decided to bring forward by ten years to 2030 the cutoff date for internal combustion engine car sales in the U.K.!

    I don’t suppose any one imagines for a second that there is any sort of plan behind this?

    This is life in a dictatorship. One faction behind the scenes kicks out another and we wake up to a major policy announced out of the blue with no regard to the consequences – just a desire to divert the headline writer’s attention from the vicious infighting.

    All while leaving the EU with major disruption inevitable because no one in industry has any idea what to plan for.
    And while we manage to combine the worst health and economic impacts of a major pandemic.

    Utterly shameful. Despicable.

  22. JoolsB
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:27 am | Permalink

    The one economy which seems to be doing well out of all this is China. Could you tell us John, does your Government intend to get together with other world leaders to seek compensation? If not, why not? Have China even offered an apology for inflicting the China disease on the world? If world leaders continue to kowtow to China and they get away with this without punishment, what’s to stop them doing it again?

    • Martin in Cardiff
      Posted November 15, 2020 at 5:21 pm | Permalink

      Are we going to seek compensation from Africa, for HIV?

      Should all the countries of the world ask for it from the UK for BSE?

      • Edward2
        Posted November 15, 2020 at 9:40 pm | Permalink

        Depends if it can be proved if it was deliberately done or just an accident.

        • hefner
          Posted November 16, 2020 at 4:08 pm | Permalink

          Would you say feeding herbivore cows a protein mix made of crushed bone and spinal cord powder is something deliberate or an accident?

  23. agricola
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:50 am | Permalink

    Never mind the the percentages and comparisons. The real question is when can we get everyone back to work and when will we know the state of the playing field they are playing on. Put more directly, what sort of a Brexit are we destined to get and what measures are to be put in place to maximise the effectiveness of leaving the EU, whether it be with an unencumbered FTA or future trade under WTO rules. I am more concerned with the musical chairs at Number 10, which might leave us semi detached. The really positive percentages we need will follow getting the above right for a sovereign UK.

  24. Ian @Barkham
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 10:02 am | Permalink

    The same story from the BBC – has the headline is ‘growth slows’

  25. Ian @Barkham
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 10:10 am | Permalink

    From the MsM Barnier threatens to cut the UK off from buying EU energy supplies unless the UK submits to EU rule.

    Usually you would say you couldn’t make it up, but given how these talk with the EU have never been about trade just about the UK submitting to EU rule. It then becomes believable

    • rose
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 11:28 pm | Permalink

      It is a good sign they are threatening this: it means they are getting worried.

    • bill brown
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 11:31 pm | Permalink

      Ian@barkham

      We can buy energy anywhere and most of the import comes from Norway,so I do not believe your quuote

      • NickC
        Posted November 15, 2020 at 4:11 pm | Permalink

        Bill, The threat by Macron of an energy embargo on the UK is reported by the Express, Bloomberg, and the GWPF, amongst others. Do keep up.

  26. Ed M
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 10:20 am | Permalink

    What did President Trump do to help the long-term, as opposed to the short-term, health of the economy?
    It is in the long-term that greatness lies and he had no long-term strategy for the USA overall – just win the next election. I’m a Republican but I want a serious long-term, strategic thinker but President Trump isn’t that. He’s just a glorified property developer which we could all be if we had inheritted millions from our fathers.

    • Norman
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:09 pm | Permalink

      Ed, surely, Donald Trump presided over policies that were good for the US economy, resisted Globalist forces on Climate Alarmism, stood up to hostile and terrorist powers without starting wars, insisted NATO members pay their dues, was UK-friendly, supportive of Brexit, pro-Life, pro-Israel and pro religious freedom – much achieved in a very unsettled and vindictive world! Judge the man by his fruits, not the hateful prejudices of his detractors.

      • Ed M
        Posted November 15, 2020 at 11:24 am | Permalink

        @Norman,

        ‘Donald Trump presided over policies that were good for the US ‘ – I agree absolutely (I never said he didn’t). What I said was though that he didn’t have a GREAT strategy for the long-term (to be a GREAT president you’ve got to have a GREAT long-term strategy). And he isn’t even a GREAT businessman to warrant the claim that he can make the USA GREAT (let-alone not having a proper long-term strategy to make the country GREAT).

        I am sure half the people on this website would be as rich as President Trump if they had been left the millions he had been left. Only difference is they (giving them the benefit of the doubt) wouldn’t have pretended to be the great businessmen they were not, nor tried to pretend they could make this country GREAT again, and if they had tried to make such a claim, they would have at least offered up some kind of long-term strategy (which is exactly what you do in business – you produce a B U S I N E S S P L A N. President Trump offered up no equivalent of a Business Plan for the USA but was often luring and making decisions in the moment (that’s necessary in business and politics – but you need far more than this to make a country GREAT).

        In the meantime, he’s divided the country hugely, undermined the constitution and more mischief.

        I’m a strong Republican. And I want the USA to be great again. But only if that person has something to back up the claims he can make the country great and with a proper long-term strategy – or Business Plan!

  27. acorn
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 10:35 am | Permalink

    Trump has really taken to MMT big time. The US currency issuing Federal Treasury has created an extra $3,300 billion and injected it into the non-government sector by various fiscal systems, including $1,000 “Helicopter” drops.

    Meanwhile, the US Federal Bank has swapped $2,000 billion of Treasury Bonds back into the “reserves” mirrored by an equivalent deposit in the Bond seller’s bank account.cash that bought them originally. This process does not create new Treasury money, just changes its form.

    Alas, US citizens have to spend it, not save it, to do any good. Like the UK, central bank monetary policy is impotent; it’s time we did away with them. Only Treasury fiscal policy can keep the nation on life support.

  28. glen cullen
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 11:07 am | Permalink

    This government bringing forward their proposed ban on petrol cars 2030 – reported today by BBC …..is this government on drugs – they’re so far away from the people it’s a complete joke

    • ChrisS
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 7:42 pm | Permalink

      It’s a complete joke ! The manufacturers cannot get the price of electric cars with a battery sufficient to give them reasonable range down to an affordable level within eight years, nor can the government install enough charging points to make it workable.

      They are simply pandering to the extreme left wing Green lobby and ruining our car industry at the same time. The result will be that millions of people will run on their existing petrol and diesel cars well past 2030.

      Sod the lot of them : I intend to continue driving my 2018 Audi A7 diesel and V12, 5,750cc Ferrari until old age costs me my driving licence.

    • steve
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:18 pm | Permalink

      Glen

      Fine, no problem. Boris Johnson owes me an electric car, owes me compensation for my Jags being forced off the road.

      And it’d better be one that equals my Jags range and performance.

  29. bigneil(newercomp)
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 11:18 am | Permalink

    Off topic
    I heard a BBC radio show presenter say that with the resignation- and the pandemic – NOBODY can expect the EU talks to go ahead – and there MUST be an extension of at least a year to staying in the EU. Brainwashing desperation STILL coming out of them. They broadcast fear on the pandemic at every opportunity, with people phoning the night time shows allowed to spout that we should be fined and shot – just for going outside. Some wailing and singing down the phones at 3am ( Feel sorry for their neighbours ). Anyone talking sense is allowed on – shortly before the news – so they can be cut short. Yet the presenter spouts about the impartiality of the BBC. Defund it now.

  30. No Longer Anonymous
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 11:23 am | Permalink

    An 80 seat Tory majority and we’re STILL getting Blairism.

    • glen cullen
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 5:55 pm | Permalink

      This government is new labour

  31. Iain Gill
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 11:31 am | Permalink

    I see the NHS is now allowing one nurse per two intensive care patients, instead of the long established rule of one nurse per critical patient. The NHS has had many months when they could have run crash courses to train up other nurses in these skills, they could have run with one experienced plus one newly crash trained per two patients instead of what is happening now. One nurse for two intensive care patients is dehumanising, and inevitably they will have to try and take measures to keep the other patient safe be it drugs or similar while intensively working on one patient. Even one experienced intensive care nurse, plus a random nurse with completely different skills, per two patients would be far better than one nurse per two patients (the experienced one can treat the other one as an apprentice in an emergency like this).

    Once again top down rationing decisions made behind closed doors by NHS England and imposed top down with no public visibility, no accountability, and none of the many other actions which could have been taken apparent. NHS most senior managers putting people in significant danger with complete unaccountability.

    John, please speak up about this!

  32. Christine
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 11:46 am | Permalink

    It’s good that the benefits of vitamin D, to fight Covid, has been recognised and that free tablets are being given to nursing homes to build up levels in the elderly but yet again we see Matt Hancock falling at the final hurdle. The dosage being given is far too low to have any beneficial effect. Please watch the latest Chris Martenson video – It doesn’t have to be this way.
    This provides the data showing the correct dosage. Please pass this message onto Matt.

  33. glen cullen
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 12:11 pm | Permalink

    Could someone please remind me when Carrie Symonds was elected to government and by whom and when did the UK start appointing a post of ‘first lady’ ???

    • steve
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 8:14 pm | Permalink

      Glen

      Scandalous, isn’t it.

      From the scenario you can take it that democracy is dead in this country.

  34. DOM
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 12:18 pm | Permalink

    The Tory-Labour controlled Law Commission destroys freedom of expression for the majority, obviously and now rumours that the NHS will remove your access to healthcare if you refuse to vaccination

    When will the decent majority wake up and realise we know live in a nation in which all has been politicised to envelop the majority in a web of oppression, control and brutal despotism

    And the SILENCE from libertarian Tories is deafening

    Well, when the majority are damaged to the point of subjugation they will then reach realisation and start to express their concerns in many ways and the slimy Tory-Labour conspiracy will be destroyed

    • Martin in Cardiff
      Posted November 15, 2020 at 5:31 pm | Permalink

      I think that people such as yourself should suffer under real despotism, so that you can at least understand what the millions who do have to undergo, and perhaps stop your insulting trivialising of their terrible plight by your ridiculous claims about your life here.

  35. alastair harris
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 12:18 pm | Permalink

    bit of a roller-coaster year. But we seem to be careering downwards at the moment. I am one of the lucky ones in that i still have a job, although reduced income at this time of the year is not welcome, and I am concerned about the mortgage given that the holiday periods are not being extended.
    I have long held the view that governments don’t understand the business world. And that goes for many MPs. It is encouraging to see your comments as a beacon of hope!
    But one thing that does rankle. Boris imposes these economic restrictions with no thought for the consequences, but we don’t see public sector workers, or government workers and MP’s suffering reduced income. Plenty of teachers spent the last six months not doing to much for their salaries for example!

  36. The other Christine
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 12:46 pm | Permalink

    I understand one of your MPs, Tom Tugendhat, is proposing that workplaces and social venues will ban people who do not hold a vaccination certificate. I would love to dismiss this proposition with the disdain it deserves but sadly I think that is where we are heading. However, it will not help the economy. I am not prepared to be vaccinated, so social venues will not be getting my business. I doubt very much if I am alone.
    The Great Reset here we come!

    • beresford
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 7:52 pm | Permalink

      They won’t be able to do this until a vaccine is available to everybody, so we’re still OK declining the initial wave. In a year or however long it takes for the second round of vaccinations to be due there should be more data on effectiveness and long-term side effects. By that time there will be several different vaccines, so the question will arise as to which ‘certificates’ are acceptable. Hopefully enquiring minds in Parliament will want to know why certificates aren’t required for pneumonia or common flu.

  37. Ed M
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 1:08 pm | Permalink

    So because President Trump essentially inheritted his father’s fortune, he is therefore NOT a GREAT businessman nor a GREAT president therefore he CAN’T make USA GREAT.

    It’s an illusion to think he can. He can’t make the USA any more great than the Bush Presidents say. All he can do is cause divisions, undermine the constitution, and cause all other kinds of mischief that destabilises the country overall.

    Let’s have a strong Republican leader to make the USA great again – President Trump is NOT that man.

    • hefner
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 6:59 pm | Permalink

      Indeed there are plenty of young(ish) Republicans for the 2024 elections: Josh Hawley, Tom Cotton, Chris Christie, Greg Abbott, Ted Cruz, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Marco Rubio, Tim Scott, …

      • Ed M
        Posted November 15, 2020 at 11:26 am | Permalink

        Good

  38. Everhopeful
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 1:37 pm | Permalink

    Faced with a corona bug and every possible scientific viewpoint available to choose from,
    why would any government choose to take the advice requiring economic destruction/annihilation?
    Illogical.

  39. Graham Wheatley
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 2:00 pm | Permalink

    Is that 15.5% up on Q2? Hardly surprising and not difficult to achieve bearing in mind the state of our finances since March.

    Has anybody else done the maths on the 200 million quick 15-minute Covid tests? At a fiver per pop, that £1 billion.

    Still, it’s only money innit?
    Money we haven’t got with the nation now TWO TRILLION POUNDS in debt.
    That number of £5 notes (in terms of the 0.1mm thickness) would be enough to circle the Earth via the Poles.

    Placed end-to-end lengthwise (125mm), they would extend 50,000,000 km – that’s almost to the planet Mars at its closest approach (56m Km), or 1.3x the shortest distance to Venus (38m Km).

    If you’re not wishing to go that far, then it gets you (distance-wise, not cost-wise, obviously!) 65 return journies to the Moon (384,400 km one-way).

    Just sayin’ like……

    • Graham Wheatley
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 3:45 pm | Permalink

      ….and if in new £1 coins (23.03mm), they’d stretch half-way to the planet Mercury!!!

  40. Barbara
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 2:14 pm | Permalink

    Looks like the government will just keep on locking down, releasing, then re-locking down the economy until it collapses.

  41. L Jones
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 3:08 pm | Permalink

    Oh, well done! Now your lot have just b*ggered it up again.
    Back to the drawing board, I suppose.

  42. Newmania
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 3:47 pm | Permalink

    In fact ,during his first three years Trump got average growth 2.5%.The last three years of the Obama were 2.3%. Still ,I give Trump credit for business friendly deregulation. Unfortunately, by elevating ethnic purity above prosperity as a policy objective’ the Brexit rabble have poured bucket of costs on UK business that will only get worse
    The IMF sees Brexit as an act of economic self-harm and has repeatedly said so. Christine Lagarde (then in charge ) , told us the consequences of Brexit would “pretty bad to very, very bad”.
    A more expansive monetary policy in the UK would entail negative interest rates as they are so low already !Comparing this with the Fed at a range of 1.75% – 2%is self evidently ridiculous.

    • Edward
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 7:12 pm | Permalink

      Please give proof that President or Brexit supporters elevated ethnic purity above prosperity as a policy objective
      PS
      The IMF have always been pro EU.

      • bill brown
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 11:29 pm | Permalink

        Edward

        THE IMF has been pro-American it has ot always been pro EU as it existed way before the EU, so get your facts right

        • Edward2
          Posted November 15, 2020 at 10:10 am | Permalink

          Comparing the length of existence of America versus the EU has no bearing on the IMF being pro EU.

          The IMF is plainly pro EU.

          It is a fact.

          • bill brown
            Posted November 15, 2020 at 1:07 pm | Permalink

            Prove it

          • Edward2
            Posted November 15, 2020 at 4:49 pm | Permalink

            Stupid reaction bill.
            The IMF is pro EU and against Brexit.
            There have been loads of comments statements and speeches.
            Originally by their head who is now an elite EU top person.
            I’m not bothered even a little bit that this is the position of the IMF.
            It is very predictable.
            And they are perfectly entitled to hold such an opinion.
            I just find it odd that you want to deny it.

          • dixie
            Posted November 15, 2020 at 5:46 pm | Permalink

            @brown

            Priove the IMF is not pro-EU.

            Compare IMF treatment of Brazil and Argentina with their bail-out of Greece – it shouldn’t even have been involved yet stepped in to save Euroland.

    • rose
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 11:35 pm | Permalink

      Mme Lagarde speaks as a Frenchwoman.

      • Martin in Cardiff
        Posted November 15, 2020 at 5:33 pm | Permalink

        Oh, would you rather that she pretended to be an Estonian or Spanish?

    • Lindsay McDougall
      Posted November 15, 2020 at 1:38 pm | Permalink

      Surely nobody is citing Christine Lagarde as an AUTHORITY or an EXPERT!!!!!

  43. XYXY
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 4:20 pm | Permalink

    Tax cuts and deregulation – such conservative notions…

    I bet our current Chancellor does the old socialist thing of increasing taxes in the misguided belief that it will fill the hole. There don’t’ seem to be many actual conservatives left in the Conservative Party these days – the “broad church” concept seems to mean parking the right-of-centre brigade in a dusty corner of Parliament with a blue sticker on their lapels while the lefty-liberals do what they always do – tax and spend.

    His insistence on forcing through IR35 reform in the current situation while offering almost no support for small businesses and the self-employed all speaks volumes about his mindset.

    It would be interesting to hear your views as to how the country – or the world – can escape the grip of eternal socialism by the back door.

  44. margaret howard
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 4:21 pm | Permalink

    Oh dear, Brexit causes chaos at Felixstowe docks. Ships redirected to Rotterdam.

    • ukretired123
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 5:11 pm | Permalink

      Thank you for your view from East Germany as usual.
      Grey is too exciting but you wear it well.

      • margaret howard
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 11:52 pm | Permalink

        East Anglia actually. And my favourite colour is charcoal grey.

    • Edward
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 5:40 pm | Permalink

      One ship.
      Ridiculous.
      Chaos at Felixstowe you call it.

      • margaret howard
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 11:50 pm | Permalink

        Edward

        “Felixstowe Port in ‘chaos’ as Christmas and Brexit loom”

        BBC News

        • Alan Jutson
          Posted November 15, 2020 at 8:54 am | Permalink

          Margaret

          Ahh from the BBC

          Must be true then !!!!!

        • Edward2
          Posted November 15, 2020 at 10:12 am | Permalink

          Typical fake news from the BBC.
          There is no chaos at Felixstowe.

          • hefner
            Posted November 15, 2020 at 8:27 pm | Permalink

            I am sure you are giving us this information based on the recent IHS Markit report on port efficiency that puts Felixstowe behind Rotterdam, Hamburg and Bremerhaven, and in 11th position on an international comparison, behind Chinese (Yangshan, Qingdao), Antwerp, and US ports (New York/New Jersey, Long Beach, Los Angeles), even behind London and Southampton.

            For the first nine months of 2020, it took an average of 32 hours in Felixstowe vs. 24 hours in the Northern European ports for the unloading of an average container ship.

            Or maybe you have never heard about that report. So much for the ‘world exporter’.

            IHS Markit Port Performance Program

          • hefner
            Posted November 15, 2020 at 8:55 pm | Permalink

            The problem with you guys is that the BBC does not create the news out of blue skies. A large amount of its info comes from AP, AFP, Reuters, etc, which themselves are scanning huge amount of reports/publications appearing every day all over the globe.

            But the ‘great minds’ wandering on this blog just think ‘oh another fake news made up by the BBC’. And they produce their little dropping of the day.

          • Edward2
            Posted November 16, 2020 at 8:39 am | Permalink

            Irrelevant comment hef.
            I am correct.
            There is no chaos at Felixstowe.

          • hefner
            Posted November 16, 2020 at 9:36 am | Permalink

            Sir John, where is my post about the IHS Markit report on port efficiency?

          • hefner
            Posted November 16, 2020 at 9:43 am | Permalink

            If you need to check before posting, it is now reported in the FT ‘Felixstowe is worst performer among key ports.

          • Edward2
            Posted November 16, 2020 at 1:14 pm | Permalink

            It is you that needs to check hef
            That article is about performance.
            Nothing to do with the BBC claim of “chaos”

            But you keep trawling the internet for more pro EU anti brexit media sites if it makes you happy.

          • hefner
            Posted November 16, 2020 at 2:24 pm | Permalink

            Edward2, Obviously in a way you are correct, there is no ‘chaos’ in Felixstowe, but you have a number of container ship companies that are seriously questioning the adequacy and efficiency of Felixstowe and its Port Authority, some unloading in Rotterdam then transferring to smaller ships going to the Port of London.

            So yes you are right and you scoring some kind of a point fills you with joy I presume, but the problem for England is still there, and is likely not to disappear in the coming few months.

            And you obviously know who has become the advisor for Felixstowe? I won’t give the name nor how much he is being paid annually nor for how many hours per month, as Sir John does not like bad comments on his colleagues. But a teeny weeny bit of research might give you the answers.

          • hefner
            Posted November 16, 2020 at 9:58 pm | Permalink

            Edward2, how short-sighted can you be to only consider my posts as pro-EU anti-Brexit. Any British person should question why a British port like Felixstowe is not able to be as efficient as continental European ports.
            But in your restricted little worldview there only are Remoaners and Leavers. Sad.

        • Fedupsoutherner
          Posted November 15, 2020 at 10:35 am | Permalink

          Stop making me laugh Margaret.

        • NickC
          Posted November 15, 2020 at 1:17 pm | Permalink

          And yet, Margaret, we are still controlled by the EU until 31 December 2021. So the true headline is “EU causes chaos at Felixstowe”.

    • Peter VAN LEEUWEN
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 6:15 pm | Permalink

      Always welcome in Rotterdam! From here only a few hours truck driving to reach the Eurotunnel and of course smaller vessels could sail from here to other ports in the UK! Always ready to service the sovereign UK!

      • Dennis Zoff
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 10:53 pm | Permalink

        Quite right Peter, the Netherlands needs good relations with the UK.

        The Netherlands is one of the countries that is highly vulnerable to the economic consequences of Britain’s planned exit from the EU. As the Netherlands’ third-biggest trading partner, the UK accounts for roughly 3.3% of total employment and nearly 3% of nominal Dutch GDP through trade.

        • margaret howard
          Posted November 15, 2020 at 8:38 am | Permalink

          Dennis

          3%? Nature hates a vacuum and someone else will quickly fill the gap. After all whatever the goods are people will still need to buy them or sell them.

          And the Netherlands were EU founder members, not johnny come latelies like us who had to beg to be allowed to join so desperate were our conditions at the time being known as the ‘sick man of Europe’

          • NickC
            Posted November 15, 2020 at 1:19 pm | Permalink

            Margaret, The UK became the “sick man of Europe” after we joined the EEC(EU). It was 1976 that we had to go cap in hand to the IMF for money to prop up the disaster that the EEC had visited upon us.

          • Dennis Zoff
            Posted November 15, 2020 at 2:55 pm | Permalink

            Margaret, there is a certain amount of truth in your comment! Though the Dutch unemployed will not thank you for your Nature anecdote vs plain good old human intervention and business profit priority…at all costs!

            Regarding ‘sick man of Europe’ Please remember however, it was the Government at the time that went with an obsequious mentality…dragging a begging bowl behind them…and of course the communistic union’s nefarious antics, hellbent on destroying the British manufacturing industry!

            It’s all in the detail…though some prefer to be reckless and deliberately selective when the truth does not fit their distorted politicized narrative?

        • Fred H
          Posted November 15, 2020 at 9:06 am | Permalink

          ‘going Dutch’ – – sadly the UK will be removing it’s side of the 2 way bargain.

      • rose
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 11:37 pm | Permalink

        That’s the spirit, Peter.

      • Edward2
        Posted November 14, 2020 at 11:42 pm | Permalink

        Strange I thought pro EU people were constantly telling us it was all about Calias.

      • dixie
        Posted November 15, 2020 at 5:54 pm | Permalink

        Keep licking Germany’s toenails Peter – we’ll find other sources for Nederlands produce, particularly after your antics in the North Sea.

    • ChrisS
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 7:34 pm | Permalink

      Evidently, according to the Guardian, the problem at Felixstowe is caused by 11,000 (!) containers stored there containing PPE bought by the British Government !

      How much of this PPE is actually suitable to use is questionable, given the fact that one huge order from China earlier in the Pandemic turned out to be useless and we could not get the millions spent on it back.

      • Martin in Cardiff
        Posted November 15, 2020 at 5:35 pm | Permalink

        Yes, that’s outsourcing for you.

    • Bitterend
      Posted November 14, 2020 at 7:38 pm | Permalink

      It wouldn’t be the first time- back in the 70’s when the UK dockers refused to go with change to containers the business was directed to Rotterdam

  45. Dennis Zoff
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 4:49 pm | Permalink

    John,

    “All but Germany have been very badly damaged by the virus and by the economic measures taken to counter it”

    Should one wish to dig deeper, one will find serious issues, particularity within the “Mittelständische Unternehmen” (SMEs). There is a groundswell of concern for the German economy and the effects of Covid-19…..and it is quickly escalating!

    Not just Covid-19 concerns:

    “Increasing competition, high or strongly fluctuating raw material prices and industrial espionage: they are all among the greatest risks for medium-sized companies. However, the shortage of skilled workers is still the main concern of medium-sized companies.” Source: Erst and Young 2020

    The weaker economic development is also noticeable in German medium-sized companies (SMEs): every tenth medium-sized company describes their own business situation as bad or rather bad!” Source: Unternehmer.de 2020

    One major concern for German SMEs: the redeployment of industrial output to the Eastern block/China/Americas. Another: The final outcome of the UK’s departure from the EU. There is a high dependency for German SMEs on the UK, in particular Auto and White goods manufacturing….and the possible strategic redeployment of output to the UK?

    • NickC
      Posted November 15, 2020 at 3:08 pm | Permalink

      Dennis Zoff, Interesting, thank you.

  46. vvv
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 6:39 pm | Permalink

    GDP up 15.5%


    its amazing what not locking us up achieves

  47. ukretired123
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 6:41 pm | Permalink

    Sir John deep below all the macro analysis there are millions of SMEs who must feel big govt is not on their side and the civil servant Depts they face are from a different planet and culture.
    I am relieved that I am retired from the perpetual extra layers of worry that HMRC & Customs, VAT and Accounting & Audit and other IR35 bureaucratic red tape one had to endure on top of Advertising & Marketing, learning & training, delivering many diverse cost-effective projects at minimal cost, with legal eagles hovering and chasing unpaid invoices etc etc.

    It is being reported that 2.6 million have fallen through the cracks of govt support and are in serious trouble as the whole system is not for for purpose esp after paying their taxes and dues and voted Conservatives.
    Boris and many of his MPs (present company excepted SJR) are oblivious to this nightmare and should this be an excuse for BRINO there will be fireworks indeed, that’s guaranteed.We
    John Humphries today regards the isolation of Old People in homes not allowed to see relatives for nearly a year as inhumane and has some choice words for the political posturing Bishops in all their finery but no heart.
    Like most of the so-called elite and betters, ordinary folks are seeing through their spinning, dodging and weaving patterns ever since New Labour and beyond. Utter despair sadly.
    You seem one of the only sensible MPs left who sticks up for common sense and decency having been forged in the crucible of hard work. Thank you for your amazing courage.

  48. Ben
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 7:51 pm | Permalink

    Yes just like when a delegation was sent to African countries looking for business, in fact looking for a new trade deal, the authorities in Tanzania said yes but there is a problem with cash flow and then the deposits on the containers is also a problem- the ships will have to wait to take the empties- of course imported stuff will have to be on credit. Great

    • Edward2
      Posted November 15, 2020 at 11:58 am | Permalink

      Most international trade is done on credit and the UK government often guarantees exporters credit where credit insurance cannot be obtained.
      Most containers are owned by shipping lines.

      Have you ever done any trade ?
      It seems you haven’t.

  49. Cyril
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 9:15 pm | Permalink

    There is a vacancy John so now is your chance- if anybody is listening😁

  50. Clive
    Posted November 14, 2020 at 10:08 pm | Permalink

    Dear Sir John and all ..
    Before we all get carried away with the GDP figure rising to the giddy heights of 15.5% for the third quarter , we should prepare ourselves for the forth quarter figures which will have a far more sobering look .
    Locking down again will see damage done which this time could be even worse than before as so much of our hospitality industry needed to be very busy on the run up to Christmas.
    Three weeks to open up before Christmas day , for so many business will be to late . Way , way, to late .
    So yes , I welcome all good news ,because my oh my we need it ,but hang on to your hat for Q 4 .
    Locking down as its called will prove to be the Governments biggest mistake .

    Reply I said it was not fast enough!

  • About John Redwood


    John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, and graduated from Magdalen College Oxford. He is a Distinguished fellow of All Souls, Oxford. A businessman by background, he has set up an investment management business, was both executive and non executive chairman of a quoted industrial PLC, and chaired a manufacturing company with factories in Birmingham, Chicago, India and China. He is the MP for Wokingham, first elected in 1987.

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