The Treasury and other pro Remain economic institutions told us before the vote that if we voted to leave the following would happen. There would be a big loss of jobs. House prices would tumble. There would be a large loss of output. The pound would fall. This would happen as a result of the vote – they did not say it would only happen after we had left. When their forecasts proved to be wildly wrong., they then shifted their ground and said some of these same effects on a smaller scale would happen after we have left.
So what did happen and what will happen next year?
Employment surged from 2016 to early 2020, with employment rising from 74% to 76.5% of the potential workforce, with continuing inward migration increasing the size of the workforce at the same time. The CV 19 hit still leaves it higher than in 2016 prior to the vote.
House prices continued to rise in cash terms throughout the period post the vote.
GPD growth remained satisfactory from mid 2016 until the CV 19 disaster this year
The pound fell from $1.42 to $1.31 shortly after the vote, but went back up to $1.42 by April 2018. It has fluctuated since and is currently at $1.33.
What will happen after we have left the single market and customs union?
According to official forecasts from forecasters known for their belief in the advantages of the single market, the UK economy will experience the sharpest rate of improvement in 2021 it has seen for decades. The CBI thinks we will grow a lively 6% in 2021 and a further 5.2% in 2022. Oxford Economics thinks we will grow by more than 10% next year and outgrow other European economies and the USA by a large margin.
So our first year as an independent nation will likely see a great growth rate, contrary to expectations. Of course the pandemic has a lot to do with this, but it just shows how wrong the pessimistic forecasts of the Remain forecasters proved to be. They themselves are now forecasting a much better outcome in 2021.
December 11, 2020
Sir John,
” The pound would fall’ – and I am delighted to see that it has fallen during the past day or so. For me this indicates that the ‘markets’, so anti-Brexit, are marking sterling down because, at long last, a ‘no deal’ Brexit just might be on the cards.
But is Boris really on the verge of delivering the clean Brexit we not only want, but also need? After dither, delay and transition leading to more proposed transition â enough is enough! WTO, or Australian terms, if you want, must be declared now.
Boris should then immediately recommend rescinding the knighthood of Olly Robbins and, further, propose action against his even more treasonous sponsor. Between them, they have delayed, complicated, plotted, lied and deliberately sabotaged this whole Brexit process.
The list of culprits who helped them in this treachery is long. If nothing else, a âDishonour Boardâ should be erected in the grounds outside the Houses of Parliament. The 23rd June should be declared a public holiday so that those who have seen four and a half years of public trashing of the reputation of the UK can, not only, be reminded of those responsible, but also reflect on the triumph of people power even when those elected to act in the publicâs interests, prioritised their own.
Now: Declare talks at an end. Scrap the WA. Ditch the NI Protocol. Control the fish. Apply UK laws, not European ones. Get out and embrace the World. Drink Aussie wine, not French. Buy UK or Japanese cars, not German. Holiday at home or in Thailand, not on the Riviera.
Boris really does need to get it right with Brexit. He must examine every murky corner for remaining fragments of EU rule and sweep them away, Failure to do this will see the Conservative Party swept away instead.
If he does actually get things right, all he then has to do is reverse those many catastrophically wrong domestic decisions he made earlier. Then, and only then, will the UK start to regain its deserved standing on the world stage.
December 11, 2020
Pominoz
A brilliant comment!
One can but hope!
December 11, 2020
JR, you and your govt told us we would be taking back control of laws borders and money and sovereignty!
Gove announced this week in parliament that will not be the case trade deal or no trade deal. The U.K. will have EU custom foreigners on our national soil checking goods that travel from one part of the U.K. to another! That is not taking back control that is obeying what we can do in our own country? It is very much not taking back control of our borders either.
N.Ireland will be in the customs union and single market and subject to ECJ.
EU will decide what money the U.K. owes it and when it will be paid. If there is a dispute the ECJ will decide. Does that sound like control of our money to you?
Your govt repeatedly told the nation this would end this year. It has lied and been dishonest to the nation.
You voted for this now tell the truth and stop defecting blame to spin away guilt.
Tell us all here that this is not the case.
December 11, 2020
Sharon, Pominoz, Gove declared the WA and NIP will be honoured deal or no deal in parliament. My above comment applies.
UK has been brought to heel.
Talks will continue with EU as long as we remain aligned and fulfill WA and NIP. Is that correct JR?
December 11, 2020
Great comment Pominoz, the reality is that were Boris not to emerge along the lines suggested, his political future and that of the conservative party are in serious jeopardy. As the question marks are already in evidence it will require a very quick turn around in policy to maintain any credibility.
December 11, 2020
+1
December 11, 2020
Not forgetting, Market Makers only make money when they ’cause’ a trade. Fluctuations like this should never be a concern unless you a dealing in foreign trade. Even then you would be covered by trading yourself.
December 11, 2020
Pominoz
Excellent !
December 11, 2020
Spot on ! Nice and simple and understood by everyone. Why do Govts have to complicate matters by adopting work-arounds which never satisfy either party. Just look at the Irish Protocol. We are no longer in total control of our Union and our Single Market. Shame on this decision although I do support the Govt in general and we should not be afraid of No Deal since 90% of world trade on WTO rules. Free Trade Agreements are a misnomer.
December 11, 2020
Omg Pominor, what a great post. Full to the brim of great ideas. We are looking to buy a car that is made in the UK with British origins or at worst Korean or Japanese cars. No French or German for us. We already buy British and Aussie wines and have even stopped buying champagne fir VERY special occasions I buy English or Welsh cheese and British meat. I am looking forward to a day when I can buy even more home grown produce. Bring it on. Your suggestion for a Dishonour Board is brilliant. We could add a few names from these diaries to it!
December 11, 2020
Wholeheartedly agree.
December 11, 2020
Well Said!
December 11, 2020
The rest of the world literally think you are idiots.
So do most people here too.
I agree about the dishonour board. Though it wonât be Olly Robbins losing his knighthood. Many Brexit backing Conservative MPs will lose theirs though.
December 11, 2020
I think you’re too UK centric if you think that.
December 12, 2020
your repeated use of literally is wrong.
For emphasis try something else?
December 11, 2020
Concur â your statement is spot-on
December 11, 2020
thats a good start
December 11, 2020
And now the former Australian PM Malcolm Turnbull enters the affray saying that Australia’s deal with the EU is unsatisfactory. Every county’s deal with the EU is unsatisfactory to that country as the only deals reached are those that benefit the political agenda of the Brussels bureaucrats trying to plaster over the ever-increasing cracks in their fragile empire.
Boris should talk to Tony Abbott, who will put him right on Turnbull’s motives – he is typical of the liberal elite who thinks he knows better than everyone else, and intended to benefit personally because of it. Fortunately he was rumbled here in Oz and disposed of accordingly. Rather more quickly, dare I say, than was the case in the UK with Theresa May.
December 11, 2020
Pominoz, All very true. Unfortunately Boris Johnson has just capitulated over Northern Ireland which will remain an EU colony even if Great Britain escapes the EU’s clutches.
December 11, 2020
Great comment Pominoz. We should have had our clean break soon after the referendum but it was frustrated by traitors who have never been held to account.
Let’s hope Boris does not turn out to be another.
December 11, 2020
I think the E.U has come to the conclusion that dither & delay are the order of the day, in order to handle our “exit” in the following manner; transition leading to more proposed transition. Which may be convenient for the Government; nothing much happens. I am not opposed to a number of arrangements being made, deals if you will. However I suppose the problem with that is… One may imagine ourselves “The U.K” as being a Turbot, yes a fish, caught on an E.U line. The term; hook line and sinker, springs to mind. I say this as I think the E.U are being somewhat unreasonable even at this very late stage, which leads me to ask why? And the answer, is outlined above; the purpose “Hotel California” I.e. You can never leave. And thus groundhog day ensues. Which I doubt will allow any potentional benefits of Brexit to transpire.
December 11, 2020
Pominoz
+1
December 11, 2020
+1
December 11, 2020
Pominoz
“Buy UK or Japanese cars, not German.”
According to the AA, which produces a guide to buying British cars, there are only three fully British-owned car manufacturers in the UK: Morgan, Caterham and McLaren.
So which British one should we choose? Although I have heard that Morgan have recently asked a German car company for help in its manufacture and marketing.
December 11, 2020
What is wrong with UK car companies being owned by foreigners?
I presume you are, like me, fine with the UK being a diverse society so why not companies?
December 12, 2020
Edward2, just a little pretend game: you have been the CEO of a UK business for years. Then one day, because things have turned bad or maybe because the ÂŁ has fallen or maybe as a consequence of Covid disruption, you learn that the company is going to be bought and taken over by foreign interests. Being polite the new owners will keep you as CEO for a little while, but the Chairman and the board are going to be replaced by some non-British persons.
So, are you telling me you would be taking this on the chin with a smile and with the proverbial stiff upper lip?
December 13, 2020
That happens all the time all over the world hef.
Failing management gets kicked out.
Or the company fails and gets taken over.
Sometimes it is UK management taking over foreign companies.
I’m not sure what your point is?
Would you, like Margaret, stop foreigners from buying share in UK companies or stop foreigners owning UK companies?
December 13, 2020
I would have expected better from you Edward2. It is obvious that shareholders can be anywhere in the world. I was making the point of a change in the leaders of a company, wasnât I clear enough?
So I change slightly the question so that it has a chance to get to the front lobe of your brain: have you considered the extensive sale of originally British companies to foreign interests that happened since the â70s a good or a bad thing?
December 13, 2020
Would you hef?
How nice you think so well of me.
But then you go and spoil it with your descent to personal abuse.
Leaders of public companies are often replaced if the company fails to perform.
If the new leader is not a UK citizen why should that be an issue?
Most big businesses trade around the world.
Having a board of directors that us international is a positive in my opinion.
You have refused to respond to my question and dodge it by asking another question.
My answer is that overall it is good thing.
December 11, 2020
Indeed and imaging how much better still it could be without the bloated state sector, the very high and over complex taxes, the vast quantity of damaging red tape, the restrictive employment laws, the endless government waste. Also is we had far cheaper on demand reliable energy rather than the Queen Carrie agenda of lunacy.
Plus we could have real and fair competition in health care and education. Perhaps even a healthcare system that performed more like the Germany one. So saving about 40,000 covid deaths and still rising at about 2000 per week in excess deaths mainly now due to NHS shutdowns in other areas.
December 11, 2020
Another great comment!
December 11, 2020
+1
December 11, 2020
Yes and one he has only made here every day for years. There should be an âauto commentâ facility on here to save the poor chap from having to type the same thing over and over and over again.
Mr. Redwood – could you add a âPlease automatically post this message every day, under every articleâ button?
December 11, 2020
Only yesterday Telford trust exposed as unfit for purpose maternity ward! The list of failing and substandard medical is endless. It costs a fortune each year in negligence claims. Although it provides a free world service!
I had a laugh at the 2015 Tory manifesto claiming immigrants would have to pay in for four years before claiming welfare! Five years on two more manifestos historic record high immigrant numbers get four star hotels and pocket money! While Priti Useless shovels more taxpayers money by the hundreds of millions to France! ÂŁ192 since 2014! Yet record high boat people!
December 11, 2020
Not that sure on house prices after March 31st when Sunakâs temporary stamp duty holiday reverts to absurdly penal rates again. Plus the proposed planning relaxations will hit prices too.
Turnover taxes are always damaging at up to 15% on houses they are moronic.
December 11, 2020
I see you are continuing with your PHD in hyperbole. I think the time wasted on it is moronic. Differences on economic strategy are not. I guess you call your kids that when you disagree with them.
December 11, 2020
Also the misguided red tap & over regulation of mortgage lending on property is hugely damaging.
December 11, 2020
Dr Claire Craig tweet today:-
âThere are fewer A&E attendances for acute respiratory infection than normal (even when you include those labelled “COVID-like”. How is that compatible with the hypothesis that we’re in the middle of a pandemic?â
It clearly is not. The 2000 extra deaths each week are mainly due to the appalling NHS failures to provide normal service and largely not covid. This is clear for the stats.
December 11, 2020
What happened to the âthey need us more than we need themâ?
December 11, 2020
it is still true.
December 11, 2020
Still valid.
The French, Dutch & Spanish want to fish UK waters (Even the EU contingency plan seems to thinks that fishing is an EU prerogative).
A quick count up of cars in the local ASDA car park (Wokingham constituency) looks like 30-40% of German origin, add to that the Spanish, French, Italian & Czech ones, are they REALLY willing to lose all of that?
December 11, 2020
On pure economic grounds, they do. But there has been a failure to recognise that these aren’t normal trade talks, the EU want to protect their political project and are prepared to suffer economic harm in order to do this. In addition they have gained the impression that we will always back down if they maintain their original position long enough, and they will now lose face if they compromise at all. We should have cut bait months ago, perhaps they would have come back in a more reasonable frame of mind. As it is our best course is to go WTO on the 31st and weather the period of mutual harm in order to establish our independence.
December 11, 2020
Patience Sir.
December 11, 2020
Best ask the Irish…
December 11, 2020
They neither need us, nor we them. Thatâs the point.
December 11, 2020
In rational trade terms, Tabulazero, they do. But the EU is not about trade, or even rationality, it is about power. Its own power. Because that’s the only thing which keeps the whole creaking EU edifice on the road.
Many of us have known this, and predicted the EU would not agree a rational fair trade deal – despite Remain (europhile) assurances about how wonderful the EU really was, and how mistaken we all were. But we were right all along.
December 11, 2020
Nick C
with your knowledge of Europe and teh EU I ahve my dounbt about how much you knew all along
December 11, 2020
Tabulazerro
Oh they suddenly will need us, and they’ll be our friends again…..next time they get themselves invaded. Only next time we will have not forgotten how they treated us and we won’t be liberating any of them.
December 11, 2020
Tabulazero
And let’s not forget all the others like:
“âEasiest trade deal in historyâ â Fox
âThere is no plan for no deal, because weâre going to get a great deal.â â Johnson
âThe day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.â â Gove
December 11, 2020
They were perfectly correct.
Sadly EU refused to move towards a deal.
We offered a tariff free trade arrangement.
The EU refused it.
December 11, 2020
We haven’t left yet and with Johnsons interminable extension to talks we may never.
I see the EU contingency plans call for 12 months status quo for fishing and only 6 months for transport etc.
It really is all about the fish.
Their arrogance is breathtaking.
Let’s be done with this bunch of shysters, they do nothing to ingratiate themselves in the eyes of the world.
December 11, 2020
I closely follow the daily death graph from Covid, it peaked 2 weeks ago and as we all know that included seasonal flu.
Why is the government keeping up this charade. Our local hospital has 70 Covid cases and we are in tier 3.
Wanton destruction of the economy.
December 11, 2020
Indeed (see all the tweets from the excellent Dr Claire Craig and Yardley Yeadon). It is very clear from the figures what is actually going on with false positives and a the NHS. Many death are being recorded as Covid that are not this is clear from the NHS stats. Deaths from many other causes have gone down significantly (this despite that fact that much of the NHS is shut and they have huge waiting times even for urgent operations).
December 11, 2020
And surprise surprise there seems to be a problem with secondary school students bringing it home…who would of thought that?
I little less “we follow the science” and more “we follow common sense” might help…
December 11, 2020
+1
December 11, 2020
Indeed.
December 11, 2020
And lives?
How ill does one have to be to get admitted to hospital?
Just the result of an ooky test?
Several coughs?
The figures must be boosted for the Third Wave 3đđ»
Let us not forget the flu epithet âOld Manâs Friendâ!!
Apparently in (Australia I think) some vaccine guinea pigs are throwing up PCR false positives for HIV. Which is odd since PCR was developed for the HIV scare as a sort of blood screening device.
December 11, 2020
Even if there was a deal we cant trust the EU
December 11, 2020
Ian
+1
It’s all about control.
December 11, 2020
Good morning
And did anyone forecast the pandemic and our governments hopeless response and latterly overreaction ? Did they realise that there would be huge redundancies and many closures of small businesses ?
No !
So why the hell should any if us believe in them now ?
I am tired of these people. For heaven’s sake can’t they five it a rest.
And finally. All these economic guru’s. How many of them have made their fortunes following their own predictions ? Few if any u would guess.
December 11, 2020
JR and his govt sold the nation out. The U.K. Had a fudge of remaining in the EU. There is an border down the Irish Sea, there are customs checks by EU officials on our national soil, ECJ does still apply in a host of areas, the U.K. Still sends billions to the EU at amounts it decides and when it wants any dispute ECJ decides!
That is remaining. It is certainly not taking back control of money, laws, regs, borders or sovereignty.
JR tell your readers the truth. Admit what you voted for.
December 11, 2020
Mark,
Hancock 23/01/2020 speech in parliament. The biggest public health policy failing in our history where many died and catastrophic consequences for the economy. Contrast to what he has said and done since. If he had any integrity or honour he would have resigned. If he did not he should have been sacked. Lord Carrigton and others resigned for far less.
Johnson publicly stated, many times, no PM would sign up to the terms he signed up to in the WA and NIP. Both have been reaffirmed his week for the U.K. to be in vassalage forever! He should resign or be ousted.
December 11, 2020
I believe that WHO etc etc DID forecast the pandemic ( incessantly).
The UK is rated as second only ( in a silly competitive way) to the US in âpandemic responseâ…although both did disobey the âpandemic rulesâ they had signed up to.
Strangely the rules of the international agreement thingy forbad cessation of travel and closure of borders…too much interruption to trade apparently.
But travel stopped. And UK âgold platedâ the exercise.
All most puzzling.
Is this a drill that has got out of control? Ensuing chaos ceded control to the dangerous, extreme far Left.
Goodness knows.
December 11, 2020
Indeed we have come to expect nothing but doom and gloom from the remainers. No doubt EVERY economic blip will be put down to Brexit in future. Even problems at the ports now are beginning to be associated with Brexit and not Covid. If we think it’s been bad it will only get worse. Let’s just get it got and look foreward to a bright future.
December 11, 2020
The problem at Dover can be said to be associated with Brexit, but not for the reason the remainers predicted – gumming up of customs. It’s just that traffic has increased dramatically for stockpiling purposes.
I suspect there will be queues for Dover next January too, but again not because of customs queues. It will be French fishermen denied access to British waters blockading Calais – whilst the bold gendarme look on.
December 11, 2020
Exactly. We should have left years back the day after the referendum or when Cameron came back with his pathetic thin gruel. Indeed we should never have joined when Ted Heath outrageously took us in without even asking the voters for any authority.
Cameron should have prepared for a leave outcome and thus been ready to leave that day.
December 11, 2020
Indeed. Every problem will be blamed on Brexit. Not just economic ones either. And, after 15-20 years, when there is a new generation of voters they will be pre-programmed to think Brexit is all bad. Which it is. And they will undo it.
You should not be upset by this strategy. It was used on you, but in reverse. For 30 years everything that was wrong with our country was blamed on the EU. Even when it wasnât the EUâs fault. And enough of you believed it.
We will undo Brexit. It is just a question of how and when.
December 11, 2020
ĂŹYou will be a pensioner when that happens.
December 11, 2020
What really, really, really makes me smile when I think about your frankly weird posts is that, NEVER IN A MILLION YEARS, will the EU have us back.
December 12, 2020
taking a knee would be a very minor display required by the megalomaniacs.
December 11, 2020
âPre-programmedâ
âWe will undo Brexitâ
Who is Andy?
I think we should know what super power he works for.
December 11, 2020
I dunno.
CV-19 has been a pretty big factor recently.
December 11, 2020
We need to sack off the useless Ports that can’t cope and give them some competition. I’ve had enough of their excuses, transport companies have remained fully operational in this Country all year.
December 11, 2020
And the BBC has gone out of its way to dig out as many remoaners as it possibly can find.
December 11, 2020
And if we had voted to remain we would have been even more dominated by the Eu âFrance/Germany â and been forced to hand over more money and let even more people in with no control from us and the politicians would have as in the past bowed down to the Europeans every whim including a Eu forces , so letâs not be under any doubt it would not have been a bed of roses if weâd stayed, and you can bet your bottom dollar that the Eu will tighten the rules when weâve left to make it even more difficult for any other country to leave there club
December 11, 2020
At least they might learn not to ‘negotiate’ for 4.5 years!
December 11, 2020
Mick,
In 2016 it was now or never to leave the EU, it’s about time those that voted Remain get on board to make BREXIT a success rather than carping on about it…
To a certain extent BREXIT is like Shrodingers cat – lets make sure that when the box is finally fully opened on the first of January 2021 that the cat is still alive.
December 11, 2020
Anyone can leave the EU club. But having seen what a monumental mess Brexiteers have made of it, I doubt anyone else will ever want to. I mean who else is dim enough to put a border down their own country, to remove citizens rights and to effectively impose economic sanctions on themselves?
December 11, 2020
Did you have your fingers crossed when you wrote this post andy?
December 11, 2020
The people of France would vote to leave – if given the chance – according to someone who you have the utmost respect for – Monsieur Macron.
December 11, 2020
Brexiteers?
David Cameron? Remainer
Olly Robbins? Remainer
Theresa May? Remainer
These were the people in charge
Now Boris who is the first Leaver
We are waiting to see what he does.
December 12, 2020
It has been a lot of him NOT doing things that we take issue with.
December 11, 2020
Immigration has nothing to do with the EU. I donât know when you are going to realise something that is blindingly obvious – UK governments WANT high immigration to boost GDP. Theyâd have a million a year if we could cram them in.
December 12, 2020
Can’t see how immigration of criminals and benefits seekers and the unhealthy medical demanding can possibly increase GDP. But those with work ethic and the ability to contribute yes, thus the proposed points system,
December 11, 2020
Mick, Very good point.
December 11, 2020
The Treasury is a political organisation. It consists of people who see the world through a political prism. Politics is about power and the application of power to assert control of human beings and indeed human events. Politics is not about the generation of profits from economic activity.
The Treasury’s economic forecasts are not forecasts in the slightest. They are tools of political propaganda. I would call their forecasts, LIES with one intent, to deceive. We have to finance this subversion through our tax payments.
Criminal laws should be enacted to criminalise behaviour of any State employee whose intent is seditious
Etc ed
December 11, 2020
‘their forecasts lies’,
December 11, 2020
The taxpayer is the States ‘cash cow’
The muted up and coming tax rises will not be paid by all. If you can afford to shuffle the deck, offshore etc you will be immune. If you are a State Controlled Pleb (Like me) you will pay through the nose and twice over because you will also have to pay for those that can afford to legitimately avoid contributing.
The UK’s tax system is unfair in this modern world it disadvantages the smaller guy, the masses while subsidising those that contributing is something they are able to easily avoid.
December 11, 2020
That would cut down hugely of the size of the state sector but put the prison bills up quite a lot.
They rarely take legal action even with NHS scandals either with many deaths. Look at the appalling maternity scandals at Shrewsbury. Nor do they take much action to prevent it happening again.
I see that over 10,000 acquired coronavirus when they were being treated in NHS hospitals for other illnesses. I assume at least a hundred of them will have died of it. I am related to one of them.
We still have the negligent, discriminatory, anti-male, vaccine priority order that will kill hundred too. Still no correction or explanation for this negligence from the âexpertsâ or politicians. No questions about this either.
December 11, 2020
Time to restore a Treason and Sedition Law more robust than the one which Blair trashed. Retrospective conviction for crimes past would be great but I doubt we may hope.
December 11, 2020
+1 DJ and Dom.
December 11, 2020
What will the exchange rate be after Mr Johnson has ruined the UK economy with his insane green polices?
Polly
December 11, 2020
So current dollar weaknesses or euro strength have nothing to do with it at all or the fact that a weaker pound boosts exports and potentially the value of our overseas earnings.
So the usual exchange rate bolleaux used as an excuse to vent, yet again, your personal pet hate again with zero evidence.
December 11, 2020
Zero evidence?
Do you have any evidence that Net Zero, very high electricity costs and dismantling the UK’s gas supply will do anything other than wreck the UK’s economy?
Polly
December 11, 2020
Ps. Ask the southern EU countries what it is like to be locked into a strong Euro or maybe compare their economies with ours.
December 11, 2020
So sky high electricity prices, an intermittent supply and no gas mean economic success.
Interesting ideas you have, nigl.
December 11, 2020
Nig1, There is plenty of evidence that green policies are both extraordinarily expensive and pointless, or even counterproductive. From bio-fuels which steal food from the poor, to toxic battery cars, there is not a single green technology that both works and is beneficial.
There is no causal link between the CO2 emitted by man and global warming. There is only an assumption (a guess). Actually CO2 absorbs only a tiny fraction of the earth emitted IR spectrum – most of it is covered by water vapour, about which you can do nothing.
So far the slight increase in CO2 has been entirely beneficial – fewer extreme weather events and a huge greening of the world enabling higher food production. And a bit more warmth, always good for life.
December 11, 2020
Nickc
this just shows you have udnerstood nothing about green policies and never will
December 11, 2020
âfewer extreme weather eventsâ: isnât it interesting that category 5 hurricane Iota was the 30th named storm of the year breaking the record and making the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season the worst ever. For the second time, letters of the Greek alphabet were used instead of names after the Roman alphabet-based names list ran out.
But NickC our in-house specialist tells us that we have fewer extreme weather events thanks to the slight increase in CO2, so everything must be fine and dandy.
December 12, 2020
One year is a blink of an eye hef.
Conflating cyclones with storms and then with hurricanes is a a faulty methodology.
Even the IPCC says there is no connection between weather events and warming.
December 14, 2020
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2014, 1.4 Extreme events, page 53, 2nd column, 2nd paragraph: âThere is low confidence that long-term changes in tropical cyclone activity are robust and there is low confidence in the attribution og global changes to any particular cause. However it is virtually certain that intense tropical cyclone activity has increased in the North Atlantic since 1970. (WGI Table SPM.1, 2.6.3, 10.6).
So youâre both right and wrong: According to IPCC, as of 2014, there is no proven connection between intense weather events and warming, but an increase in intense tropical activity in the North Atlantic has been observed in the âblink of an eyeâ going on for 50 years.
December 11, 2020
Investorsâ Chronicle: âBritainâs fragile economy, a strong case for overseas earners: However Brexit unfolds, the UK economy is weakâ. (Alpha Weekly Analysis 04/12/2020).
So whoâs speaking beautiful rags (beaux loques)?
December 11, 2020
Yes, that is the Boris Lunacy. Tuning into WOKE and Climate terrorist speak without first creating the funding is the way to get back to the Stone Age fast.
December 11, 2020
Polly, you are so right. Brexit may be a great opportunity but the economy is heading for a precipice with the catastrophic ‘zero carbon’ momentum, all to solve a non-problem
December 11, 2020
Insane policies indeed based on flawed / manipulated data to support the “Great Reset”.
December 11, 2020
EU target 55% princess Nuts Nut and Johnson 68%! Let us hope the Fake Tory party dump him ASAP. The country cannot afford his economic, social or political stupidity. Nor his cultural Marxist woke crap.
December 11, 2020
So the economy has done well from 2016 to 2020. A period in which we have remained inside the EU’s single market and customs union. Do you even stop to think before posting stuff like this which scorns the EU while proving what a massive benefit it is for the UK?
December 11, 2020
Most of his readers don’t care.
December 11, 2020
Did you not read the article GF?
Remain fans predicted doom for this very period.
Their project fear predictions did not happen.
December 11, 2020
You’ve misunderstood.
I think the point was to show how wrong remainers were in their forecasts, and therefore asking why we should believe them now?
December 11, 2020
Read the first paragraph again, where Sir John points out clearly that doom-laden forecasts dependent simply on a successful Leave referendum outcome, before actual departure from the EU, were made.
December 11, 2020
Nothing to do with the EU. Everything to do with 300,000 extra people here EVERY YEAR. Of course there are more jobs. Of course the economic my grows. Itâs not rocket science.
December 11, 2020
Mike when they discuss poverty increases in London they never dig to discover if the people in poverty have been in the UK less than ten years. A very high % now arrive with nothing so of course poverty will rise where they settle. It doesnât mean they should arrive and be given everything to level up whilst others have worked for 45+ years and are managing on less than ÂŁ12,000 pa as a couple on pension.
December 12, 2020
‘managing’ is not a word I would have used.
‘forced to exist’ might be better?
December 11, 2020
Grey, Do you even stop to think before posting stuff like this which scorns our vote to Leave whilst proving that it did not cause the problems you Remains predicted? We would have done even better if we had left in 2017, of course.
December 11, 2020
NickC, How do you know that âwe would have done even better if we had left in 2017, of courseâ. Are you privy to some secret/private forecasts or academic studies? I would love you to share your sources of wisdom, otherwise I might have to think that it is, as so often, just âhot airâ.
By the way, in todayâs FT a very interesting take on MMT and why the Japanese economic situation might be somewhat different from the UKâs one: âGreen and tech stocks are worth the priceâ by … you know who.
December 11, 2020
It is his opinion hef.
December 12, 2020
Indeed it is, thank you for reminding me but even an opinion has to be based on something, specially when it is ended by âof courseâ. No?
Or is that just a f..t from you?
December 13, 2020
I disagree.
You can have an opinion based on your own feelings or experiences or just what is often referred to as common sense.
Politics is about opinions.
You (and bill) regularly demand proof, facts, sources, data and statistics, but this is not a University where we hand in essays with Harvard referencing.
December 13, 2020
âessays with Harvard referencingâ, youâre absolutely right, this is not the case usually … except when you or some others suddenly happen to ask for reference.
December 13, 2020
You are the one challenging those who post asking for such academic sources or other
proofs and you attack those who just put forward their opinions.
I don’t ask for references.
Yet you and you pal bill often do.
December 15, 2020
No Edward2, you do not or do not want to understand. You are sometimes trying to use references to prove your point, like your above reference to IPCC about tropical storms.
But to me it is quite clear you had the statement from a second-hand source and you had not bothered to read any IPCC full report, not even the Synthesis Report.
My point in putting the exact IPCC reference with the actual sentence is to show you are like so many others on these matters of weather and climate just repeating whatever you have read in your newspaper of choice. Nothing less, nothing more.
But that does not give your statements any more value, much less in fact. You are just going down the list of people worth reading on this blog. Or maybe just for fun … maybe.
December 11, 2020
NIckC
Coming from you taht is rather steep
December 11, 2020
The EU is not a massive boon for our economy, rather a massive drag on it. In addition to the ÂŁ100Bn annual trade deficit with them, pointless EU regulation and complication of our 85% of businesses that trade only internally in the UK add another ÂŁ50Bn of costs, there’s the 80% of our customs duties, amusingly called “own resources” in EU-speak, their share of our VAT take, the ÂŁ500M of fish…
What is the benefit you perceive? It’s not trade, as our trade grows more quickly outside the EU on WTO terms than it does under the EU’s supposedly favourable customs and market conditions, even with mature, low-growth economies like the USA.
December 11, 2020
Grey Friar: How well do you suppose the EU was doing during the same period? Perhaps our good performance has been in spite of being inside the EU’s SM and CU and is a reflection of a quiet confidence in the UK’s abilities?
December 11, 2020
Sir John,
Is it not the case that any good economic news can be credited to us still being in the EU? Couldn’t it be argued that the recognition that we wouldn’t be truly breaking from the EU explains the relative stability of the economy? (Yes, the Remainer politicians and media are liars, but this is because they are, first and foremost, politicians and media. ‘Leave’ politicians and media suffer the same affliction – though of course it is the people that truly suffer.)
The US economy just witnessed a record quarter of ‘growth’, but it’s still in the toilet. The same would apply to the UK, though due to the utter incompetence of the government, economic ‘growth’ will be relatively anemic. (Of course, it is hardly growtg, but rather regrowth – and stunted regrowth at that.) My eyes rolled upon reading, “So our first year as an independent nation…”.
Most importantly, today’s post is a very strange one given the wider context, not just of the Brexit farce, but also the ever-tightening grip of the UK state on its citizens. How soon before Wokingham is in Tier 3? When is your next opportunity to vote against the government, to absolutely no effect?
And why is it, returning to your preferred topic today, that you are desperately hoping for a Brexit outcome that your government is just as desperately trying to avoid? Your on the same team; aren’t you supposed to be working together to achieve the same goal?
Reply What a muddled response. Our last year in the single market will be our worst ever economic year, though largely because of CV 19. I am daily pursuing CV 19 issues for Wokingham but do not write about only one subject. I suggest you do not bother with this site as you are so persistently negative and think everything I do is wrong. Others value some independent analysis of the economy.
December 11, 2020
The U.K. Remains in the single market and customs union JR. So do companies who trade money n N. Ireland. What on earth are you talking about to pretend otherwise. Or are you muddled?
December 11, 2020
John and the government want the same thing – a good deal. The tension is over whether the government prefers a bad deal over no deal.
The problem for our negotiators is that the EU order of preference is bad deal (for us), no deal, good deal, and trying so far unsuccessfully to persuade them that a good deal is best for all.
December 11, 2020
You have a point – up to a point. But after all these years of negotiations, surely the rational view that there could never be any such thing as a good deal given the impossibility of the EU compromising its Single Market, has been empirically proved. This calls into question the UK government’s definition of a good deal, and its willingness to make at least short-term economic sacrifices to regain political independence.
December 11, 2020
Sir John, Simeon has made some good points in the last few weeks, and I for one would like to hear his point of view. I don’t regard him as ‘persistently negative’ as I would many of the Remainers on here, such as Andy, Martin in Cardiff and Newmania that you regularly give space for. Perhaps his challenge that you’d achieve more from outside your party than within is beginning to hit home? [Note: this challenge is not a criticism of your ideas; it is to say that you are a lot better than most of your colleagues, and it is they that have left you behind in your wish to be sensible and principled. In your shoes, I would take Simeon’s challenge as flattery.]
December 11, 2020
Apology: by ‘flattery’ I meant ‘as a compliment’, not that it was an unwarranted compliment. I often don’t get my words right. Back to school for me.
December 11, 2020
Thank you for your kind words. You are exactly right to suggest that my repeated challenges to Sir John are a compliment. I have no hope in the Conservative Party as a whole, and, aside from perhaps a handful of Sir John colleagues, and Sir John himself of course, no hope in Conservative MPs. I don’t think it is possible for a handful of MPs to be the tail that wags the Tory dog, which is why I am relentless in my calls for Sir John to lend his strength to a cause (perhaps not as yet manifested) that can deliver real change. For as long as he, and a few others, remain Conservatives, they are a hinderance rather than help – which can also be interpreted as a compliment, for they lend a veneer of credibility to an otherwise discredited party.
December 11, 2020
Reply to reply
I don’t see where the muddle is, though I was playing a little devil’s advocate on the first paragraph. I don’t doubt that you are pursuing Covid issues for Wokingham. It is conceivable that you have secured some local wins despite the continual losses at the national level.
I disagee that I am negative. Criticism and negativity are not the same thing. I contribute here because I think it is important to try and hold you to account. Perhaps others value my attempts to do so. I won’t deny that I have selfish reasons to post; doing so is stimulating and a diversion. Ultimately, you decide what is published. There are other posters here that are unrelentingly critical, some of whom are obviously trolls that disagree with your aims as well as your methods. I broadly agree with your stated aims, but cannot support your methods which, to the extent that they perpetuate the status quo, are counterproductive. It is my hope that one day you will be a part of the radical change this country would benefit from.
December 11, 2020
But your proposals are such old chestnuts. Where have you been? All been tried, thatâs why Sked launched UKIP – with the proviso that no UKIP candidate should take his seat in the EU.
The fact is that without votes in Parliament you can achieve nothing but pressure in those with votes in Parliament.
You need to read more, then we would not have to suffer all these ânew ideasâ yet again! You are speaking to old warriors.
December 12, 2020
An alternative to the Tories is an idea whose time has come in a way it hadn’t in the ’90s. Increasing numbers of people are disillusioned with the Tories, and there are increasingly more reasons to be disillusioned. You yourself appear to be increasingly disillusioned with the Tories. If you reach a point where you can no longer vote Tory, what will you do?
December 11, 2020
JR,
It is not our last year in the single market! N.Ireland remains in it and all companies who trade in N.Ireland from anywhere Elise in our country are also subject to it and EU customs officials on our soil to check compliance!
Your rotten govt said many times we leave as one United Kingdom. It has not.
Stop peddling myth that the U.K. has left the single market and customs union it has not. ECJ applies to a host of issues and U.K. Continues to pay billions to themEU THE SUM AND TIME at EU direction! That is not taking back control one jot.
December 11, 2020
I value the comments. It’s boring if they all agree. I would not be able to trawl through
them every day as they attacked me. It must be demoralising.
I hope Simeon continues to post.
December 11, 2020
Thank you for that. Sir John obviously has to read every single comment posted here, and you are surely right to suggest that this must be a challenge. He could easily discard my posts, or anyone else’s, and this would be undertsandable and even defensible. That he hasn’t in my case – and also in others – is worthy of credit. I’m going to make an effort to at least vary my criticisms more, and also reduce their volume. However, I’m sure Sir John doesn’t need me nor anyone else to don kid gloves.
December 11, 2020
Simeon
Sir Redwood is an decent man (was my MP for many years so I should know) and a unique politician. He is one of the very few with the courage to vote according to his conscience. A quality of an MP sadly not shared by many these days.
Give some credit.
December 11, 2020
Steve
I hear and respect what you say. I have stated my reasons as to why just voting against the government is not enough. I believe, and I think you do too, that we are well past the point where making our objections known is enough. Real change demands real action, and it is my view that Sir John could make a real contribution to that were he to leave the Conservative Party. That I continue to petition him is an indication of the respect, and hope, I have for him.
December 11, 2020
I don’t like to see high house-prices as being desirable. I want your party to use the opportunity of Brexit to reduce the demand-pressure on our housing stock, so more British people will be able to buy their own home. The house next to me has just sold around the ÂŁ315K mark. It is suitable only for a small family with youngish children. How on earth does the gvernment think that the average family will be able to afford such prices – at more than 10 x average wage? I note that house-builders are enthusiastic donors to the Conservatives.
P.S. Yes, I do own my own home and, yes, I am a member of the Conservative Party.
P.S.2 The EU has earned the almighty two-fingered salute that Boris must now give it.
December 11, 2020
@Sea_Warrior
My observation (for what its worth) The inflated house prices in the UK are caused by nannying government interference. Every time the Government introduces some form of hand out/subsidy all that happens is that those that can afford it anyway get subsidized by those that can never afford it. Its the lunacy of State intervention.
Its the perversion of a State investing and getting back a proper return to further invest and the State just giving taxpayer money away for no definable return.
December 11, 2020
Ian@barkham
This is about the only sensible contribution you ahve made for long time
December 12, 2020
Ian @ Barkham
” The inflated house prices in the UK are caused by nannying government interference”
=============
Actually Ian it’s caused by greed.
December 11, 2020
if still a member you are having as much difficulty leaving as the Party from the EU!
December 11, 2020
held back again.
December 11, 2020
House prices are high because there are too many old people and not enough new homes are built.
I know it is easier to blame foreigners – you quittlings always do – but it would be wrong to.
So what are you going to do about all the old folk? Or was Covid in care homes your housing strategy too?
December 11, 2020
You are just hilarious andy.
December 12, 2020
or plagued by a condition which actually is rather sad.
December 11, 2020
Absolutely. It is a well known fact that the EXTRA THREE HUNDRED THOUSAND people that move here each year DO NOT NEED ANYWHERE TO LIVE.
December 11, 2020
have you tried house prices over there in the 27?
I would think there are plenty of available homes and much cheaper in Romania and Poland, after all hundreds of thousands now live here.
December 11, 2020
Do you actually live in England Ageist Andy? The number of new houses built in the last ten years is massive and retirement flats youâll be pleased to hear for over 55âs downsizing.
One day Ageist will carry the same weight as Racist it should already.
December 11, 2020
Good point.
I know very many widows on their husband’s pensions living in huge houses which are being super-heated to keep a little old biddy rattling around in it.
These women were totally dependent on their husbands and lacked the confidence to take charge of their own lives.
Help to Move would have been a far better policy than Help to Buy.
One would have made house prices more realistic and yet the chosen policy has ramped property prices beyond affordability.
Your beloved NHS keeps people alive in pitiful health on cocktails of pills for decades on end – longevity doesn’t equate with happiness nor health.
The NHS mortally injured both my father and mother with misdiagnosis and mistreatment and yet kept them alive with pills for years afterwards.
December 11, 2020
Still here, Andy? Isn’t it about time you departed for your beloved Europe? Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.
December 12, 2020
The answer us simple…make it illegal to sell a house for more than you paid for it.
December 12, 2020
So nobody moves.
December 13, 2020
You canât be seriously advocating such a thing. Have you ever heard of what is called the âfinancializationâ of the house market?
December 11, 2020
The answer to house prices is to allow supply to exceed demand.
December 11, 2020
It most definitely is not. The housing market is not like buying cans of beans. House prices are set at the margins. There might be a million cans of beans in existence, but if only one of them is for sale, the price will be set by whatever that one can fetches.
December 11, 2020
You are a member of the âwe insist on 300,000 people to move here every year Tory Partyâ. Why? Do you hate this country that much?
December 11, 2020
The Conservative party are never going to build homes in sufficient numbers to reduce prices. To do so is contrary to every belief that they have. The fantasy of a green and pleasant land etc etc is central to the core beliefs of the Conservative party which also include the concept of the thrifty housewife and the nanny state. I am not remotely surprised at the price paid by your neighbour and I speak as one who has made a fortune out of housing simply by predicting the shortage of housing, the recklessness of our banking system and the supine nature of the people – who seem to revel in misery and low expectation whilst the rich few have no such constraints. Our county is becoming ridiculous in its inequality which is so clearly manifest and is doing unimaginable harm to so many.
December 11, 2020
By âpro remain economic institutions we presumably means ‘every’ economic institution .The Bank of England , the Treasury , the City , the IMF the OECD but of course ,we don`t need experts do we…other than for vaccines and .. you know doing things .
Outrageous lie about the pound which fell as referendum approached ( of course , you see what he did there ) and in real time every time our current calamity got more likely.
So many disasters you dont know where to start but topically .Pharma leaders and experts unanimously agree that patients face delays obtaining medicines without a âmutual recognition agreement â Yes we can airlift vaccine to avoid the port delays and rush through one ( as were always allowed to do ) , but we cannot live that way without consequences .
Tesco predicts say tariffs will push up consumersâ overall food bills by 3 to 5 per cent …great but of course John Redwood knows better and he knows everybody’s business better than they do.
On and on it goes and for this what do we get ….. ?
December 11, 2020
Havenât really got a response have you. Check the ÂŁ:GBP movements – the rate hovered between 1.38 and 1.45 through the early part of 2016 when remain were confidently expected to win. Likewise the employment and growth stats.
December 11, 2020
So, if certain limited food stuffs go up 5%, donât buy them. There are always alternatives. Easy.
December 11, 2020
Tescoâs Chairman quoted from the British Retail Consortium estimate which makes some dubious assumptions: e.g.
Domestic producers are likely to put up prices when tariffs are imposed on foreign produced goods, in order to maximise profits. As a result, for many products, the effect could be as if all goods foreign or domestically produced faced the tariff.
âą Based on this and using the current level of imports from the EU, weâve estimated the potential range of price increases for a number of goods found in the UKâs weekly shopping basket, if imports from the EU were to face WTO tariffs.
We currently import food from the EU to avoid the EUâs tariffs on cheaper world prices. In future our food imports from the EU will drop dramatically when we can access much cheaper world markets with the same level of tariffs. So itâs absurd to base the estimated impact on the current level of imports from the U.K. And the assertion that domestic producers can just âraise prices to increase profitsâ completely misstates the balance of power between producers and supermarkets in the U.K. food market.
December 11, 2020
“Pharma leaders and experts unanimously agree that patients face delays obtaining medicines without a âmutual recognition agreement”
Could you tell me which Pharma leaders?
Are they foreign-owned companies leaders?
Do they make any pharmaceuticals in the UK?
Did the UK used to make them?
What % of our pharmacy drugs are imported from the EU if they cut off the supply?
Is there nowhere else in the world to source the same drugs?
The Supermarkets are political this is how they were allowed to grow and swallow up all their independent competitors from fishmongers, to butchers, bakers, Fruit and Veg shops and stalls. Let Tesco put the prices up and people will flood to their German competitors until the people realise this means all the profit going out of the UK, if the German supermarket brands can reduce prices why can’t British owners? Why is the ASDA takeover by British business people being hesitated over?
December 11, 2020
Newmania, What an astonishing muddle you are in. The “experts” you cite got it wrong about their predictions for after our Leave vote. Those same “experts” modified their forecasts when they saw that they were wrong – modifications which proved they got it wrong. Have the grace to admit it.
As for the Pound, it has gone up and down during our EU membership, and it will go up and down after we depart (if we depart). That’s what floating currencies do. Didn’t you know? Indeed it was the aim of the BoE’s Mark Carney to reduce the level of the Pound both before and after the Referendum anyway.
December 11, 2020
Newmania
[A supermarket] “say tariffs will push up consumersâ overall food bills by 3 to 5 per cent”
=============
Ah yes, the price hiking racket, just as we saw with decimalisation.
December 11, 2020
Tariffs will only push up food bills if you continue to buy eu products and food produce. Do as I have been doing and boycott eu produce and use home grown and in season fruit and veg supplemented with produce from our friends world wide.
Look else where for your foodstuff- high street and Farmshops other than supermarkets as they choose products for their profits not your benifit.
December 12, 2020
Mike Durrans
+1
Agree entirely. I’ve been doing so for a while now. Moreover the home grown market is a matter of national security in my opinion.
I also stopped buying Irish produce following the insulting behaviour of Irish press towards our country. It doesn’t take much…..insult my country, I don’t buy anything from yours.
Interestingly I noted in my local supermarket they had an offer on cheese. Full size rounds for amazingly low price, thing was the entire counter full of brie. No one wants it, they can’t shift it.
December 11, 2020
The UK economy/pound never crashed during its membership of the EU.
The UK never suffered mass unemployment and the destruction of industry whilst in the EU.
The UK never endured French blockades whilst in the EU.
Have you come out of Covid-19 hiding btw ?
I never went in to it. I’ve been out in it helping to keep the country running for you while you were safe ‘n’ warm.
December 11, 2020
I’m surprised we can’t talk about food supplies and what happens if there’s a blockade.
Does that mean you have no plan?
Polly
Reply There will not be a blockade
December 11, 2020
A ‘blockade’ would be an act of war. There will be no blockade.
December 11, 2020
Why would there be a blockade? No shortage of alternative ports and airports. Also a lot of capacity (and potential) for more home production if needed. Even if it is mainly cabbage, sprouts, spuds, root veg, apples, onions and similar. Lots of free rabbits around too. Food outside the EU is significantly cheaper too.
Anyway many people could do with losing a few pounds. We can always Dig for Victory if needed.
December 11, 2020
@JR
“Reply There will not be a blockade”
============
I think you may have made an underestimation of french behavior Sir Redwood.
You must surely remember the french setting fire to British sheep, attacking pensioners in their cars etc, and all while the gendarmerie stood by and watched. And more recently the attacks on our fishing boats.
There certainly will be trouble from the french, I guarantee it. In fact they are openly declaring their intent to fish in our waters regardless. I say bring it…at least we can have the satisfaction of sinking them, payback for their ramming and firing flares at our boats.
December 11, 2020
That would suggest it would be the UK Government stopping things entering the Country, why would they do that?
Your theory requires the EU to block their own exports to the UK, interesting
December 11, 2020
my plan would be to blockade EU exports to us – like cars….
December 11, 2020
I would add to reply that the EU is not the only source of food in the World. I would imagine those who import it have already done their homework.
December 11, 2020
Sir John, we were told there would not be a border between us and Northern Ireland, Gove signed up for one!
I hope there is a plan for food replacement, there are other Countries wanting our business and we could have a tariff-free or low tariff short period until we get ourselves sorted out.
December 11, 2020
Polly, I have never seen any policy or proposal to block anything in any direction.
December 11, 2020
There are plans to use military aircraft to bring in the Covid vaccines – to avoid Port delays . Large Retailers are stockpiling now for the panic .
In Financial services we have had to assume the worst and years have been spent trying to mitigate the disaster.
The damage there will be longer term – the Government will probably talk about a bumpy road but long term success but the truth is quite the reverse .It is the long terms effects that are really serious .
December 11, 2020
You hope, don’t you?
December 11, 2020
We could do with some refugee hostels and more affordable estates in Lewes.
December 11, 2020
Kenneth
That’s because the french regard Le Blockade as standard practice, they don’t need a policy.
December 11, 2020
But Polly, these people in the EU are our “Friends”
We are told constantly of that by all the Remainers,
Surely friends would not dream of a blockade.
Seems to me they are not acting like any friends I know at all.
My friends do not insist I pay them whatever they ask for, to be their friend.
likewise they do not impose there house rules on me, when I am in my own home.
December 11, 2020
Polly- Officialdom customs and immigration on both sides will slowly choke everything off. Long queues and paperwork miles of it will slow everything up- but almost the same as a blockade.
December 11, 2020
The UK will be free to import whatever it likes.
However, when it comes to exports a no deal would be another matter entirely.
If there were literally no agreements, then UK planes and trucks would have no access to the European Union’s airspace or roads, and visitors – if they could get there at all – would likely require visas and other documentation.
December 11, 2020
Hilarious nonsense.
December 11, 2020
That cuts both ways, of course. I am picturing the line of unsold products from the likes of BMW, Audi, Volkswagen, Mercedes, Ford, Vauxhall, Peugeot, Citroen, Renault, Seat, Skoda, Fiat, Bosch, Neff, Zanussi and many, many others. Lined up from Calais to Paris with all their manufacturers happily sighing and saying – ah well, the EU is in charge mes amis!
December 12, 2020
and the Russians threatening ‘Pay the Bill or we cut you off’.
December 11, 2020
The 3 main remaining âsticking pointsâ are fundamental points of principle to Brexit.
The main reason we left the EU on 31 January was to reclaim our independence.
It is not possible to reconcile these diametrically opposed issues from either side of the debate.
Now that we have reached a workable solution on Northern Ireland, whether we agree a trade deal or not, the EU must now basically decide whether continuing to seek to punish the UK for leaving is more important to it than maintaining continuity of trade with the UK under a seamless Free Trade Deal.
Itâs now basically that simple.
The EU has stonewalled and dragged its feet for 4 years and now it must âstick or twistâ.
December 11, 2020
That’s the point the longer the EU drags things out the more we pay them and the more the our industry is paused until the picture is clear. Business will do well in any circumstance if the picture is clear.
December 11, 2020
The NI solution is not workable.
-NI will not accept that they need to incur export customs to send goods to the remainder of the UK. If they don’t, EU has a de facto free trade area with any of our future trade partners who might not wish that.
-Scotland and Ireland will, rightly, ask what they need to do to get a seamless customs border with the EU.
-Future trade partners will not accept the one country-two customs areas scenario.
December 11, 2020
Scotland and Wales…
December 11, 2020
The main reason most of you voted leave was immigration. Please stop pretending otherwise.
December 11, 2020
Independence was the reason.
Nothing came close.
December 11, 2020
Surely, if you wanted to avoid immigration, you would ironically emigrate to another country and become an immigrant yourself.
Incidentally, how many people a year would you allow in? Is 300,000 enough for you? A simple question and one you NEVER ANSWER because you can’t say it out loud because you know it will make you look like a half-wit.
December 11, 2020
I don’t. I voted in part to end immigration as far as possible. I don’t think it will happen because all main parties are pro-immigration.
December 11, 2020
The main reason we voted a leave is to have the power to sack our lawmakers.
December 13, 2020
??? As if you could not do it before.
December 11, 2020
*Uncontrolled* immigration, Andy. Be honest.
We were perfectly happy with immigration until UK Leftists under Blair and Major started taking the piss.
Whether the UK goes bust or whether the UK walks away successfully – the EU now has a vacuum at the heart of it.
Don’t imagine for a minute that our wealth simply transfers into the remaining EU. Germany has just become a single mother in effect.
All could have been avoided if you’d respected your own working class a little better.
December 11, 2020
Well I didnât, I think there should be immigration with no wage top up benefits or housing benefits for at least five years. I believe asylum seekers should be provided with work and not kept waiting for years. Does that fit your narrative.
December 11, 2020
As you will see after moderation, using different words, I completely agree with you.
December 11, 2020
You can only speculate about the voters’ reasons for voting Leave.
There will be range of them, and no reliable information is available.
That is, at least in part, because people will always say “to regain our independence” rather than “because I hate foreigners” for example, whatever the real reason might be.
Therefore no post-exit arrangements can be claimed to be a violation of the referendum result. The vote was nothing to do with those.
December 11, 2020
I could say the same for the reasons people voted Remain.
December 11, 2020
Andy would say 17.4 m were so thick that they put the cross in the wrong box. Perhaps they couldn’t read?
December 11, 2020
A lot of the people I speak to Martin wanted to keep more of our money, not just the membership fee but the import taxes 80% of which are retained in the EU to start to boost all the Country not just London. They wanted to spend more on the NHS, they wanted to build more business especially manufacturing and advanced technologies in the regions, they wanted to decide where to spend the money and on what projects rather than have this decided for them. They got sick of hearing we, the general public, were being taxed more by the Eu for false taxes we donât collect on for example prostitution and drugs. The UK public were being told we had to cut back, we had to go through austerity, we are not rich everywhere and there are plenty of areas in the UK that need jobs, not libraries and public buildings or cycle lanes, they need good jobs but we canât build them because theyâre considered State subsidies in the Eu and that can only happen in Eastern Europe.
They got sick of hearing about industries being decimated such as the car parts industry, the milk boards were weakened and we started to import more, we are told we now buy 80% of Cheddar (Cheddar is in England) from Southern Ireland, why? Why was this allowed I thought the Eu was renowned for protecting regional produce like Italian Salami or French Champagne.
The only children In the UK paying Astronomic tuition fee taxes are English! There is huge discrimination in Scotland and Wales against the English. Thats just a starter taste for you I could go on but people like you have NEVER listened.
December 11, 2020
If you want to know why English tuition fees are relevant to the Eu, we were told by Osborne there was no money, Labour left a note saying they were spent up and they introduced the tax, it was quadrupled in 2012 we were told to put more money into the Pupil premium throughout the UK not just in England. Weâre now told UK pensions have disappeared it was never saved and invested in the UK whilst money was sloshing out merrily to the EU to fund everyone elseâs child benefits and pensions into Countries where they can still retire at 60 and we have to wait till weâre 67. Weâre now told NI wasnât Insurance it was a tax – well NO actually it was for your healthcare and pension. They are sick of being robbed blind.
December 11, 2020
JW,
Good analysis, do they want to keep selling us stuff and enjoying some fishing access, or not. That’s their position.
We’ve yet to hear from the real decision maker, you know who that is, and after she’s been lobbied by her auto manufacturers she’ll decide for the EU. I think it’ll be the same as it was in 1939, all of West and East Europe, ex the troublesome British, under the control of Berlin is just fine.
So it’s WTO and then see how the French and Italia and Spanish like their new masters.
December 11, 2020
Nobody is punishing anyone- the EU is a club if we want unfettered access to it for goods trade then we are going to have to agree to some of its rules- we were part of it for forty years, in fact guilty of making the rules- so it cannot come as a surprise to us that they are standing firm.
December 11, 2020
they have never done ‘some ‘ it has always been ‘ALL’.
December 11, 2020
Yeah Fred same as Britain in the days of empire- as if we cared
December 12, 2020
yep -the EU acting like 200 years ago – seeking to control an empire.
December 11, 2020
All we want is a free trade deal similar to that offered to other single countries.
It is the EU that is tieing fish and oversight to the negotiations. If we were not part of the EU negotiating an FTA would not involve oversight or fish so why should any future FTA need to agree the elements.
We just want a trade deal why do you think one should be tied to the other?
December 11, 2020
Looks like they are not going to give it to us.
Yes EU is tieing the fish to FTA. Why?
Probably because they can.
And probably from their perspective EU themselves – not UK in ay circumstances – has the upper hand.
Is it fair? No. But such is life.
As the saying goes: “all countries are equal but some countries are more equal than others”..and EU is massivey more equal than most of the countries.
Just wait when we start FTA negotiations with USA…this is a walk in a park comapre to it.
December 11, 2020
Do China and America follow its rules?
December 11, 2020
Boris Johnsonâs coded pleas to the EU are getting more and more frantic. No-deal is now âvery, veryâ likely.
December 11, 2020
Forecasting the future is a mugs game. Who could have foreseen Covid 19 and the hysterical reaction to it, or the insane attempt of the UK government to control the worlds temperature.
December 11, 2020
Indeed but I think the hubris from Boris etc had not done you any favours, especially as far as some of your Old Testament contributors are concerned who seem to believe everything literally.
December 11, 2020
Somethings make you smile. It was pick up yesterday that the UK has to be punished and punished hard, for not submitting to EU Rule.
Ursula von der Leyen also came up with the idea that the EU is the Worlds largest market at 500 million. Yes the EU is a large protectionist zone, isolationist if you like. But given a World market on the same terms of some 3.5 billion 500million is but a drop in the Ocean.
The EU is protected in that they have artificially caused the devaluation of the Euro so as to make their manufactured goods cheap and as such protect their home market. That is not engaging with the World that is waging war on the World. All these left wing manipulations do finally come home to roost, if the EU doesn’t drastically change it will consign its people purgatory
December 11, 2020
Ian@barkham
The Eu ahve some of the highst manufacturing costs in the world , so your thoery just does not stadk up and that it will sign its people to Purgatory its just another example of your fake news and EU propaganda, it is all rather sad tha you do not know any better.
December 11, 2020
And after all that the Remainers still say, in reference to an economic impact assessment for lockdowns “Where is the economic impact assessment for Brexit ? We have been asking for four years and there isn’t one”. The fact is there was one, from the Treasury, and it was hopelessly wrong and they don’t like that at all.
Another continuity trade deal signed with Singpaore I see, Margaret will surely be posting soon contratulating Liz Truss because she told us for four years there won’t be any …. waiting ….
December 11, 2020
Off topic but good news for the U.K. and especially the North East. A company is investing over ÂŁ2 billion to create a lithium battery production facility employing 3000 people as other battery makers invest elsewhere.
The anti green lobby (showing your age?) get over it, you have lost both the political,and increasingly the economic argument.
December 11, 2020
And 5000 more jobs in the supply chain. Hurrah for the UK!
December 11, 2020
Nobody is anti green (or likes to be old.)
The fact is that the great switch off is going to hit the working class the hardest.
ÂŁ10k for a replacement boiler.
ÂŁ30k for a crap car.
And they’ve killed our pubs and high streets.
I just want the Tories annihilated.
December 12, 2020
be patient – unless the spineless MPs do something – it will be a long wait.
December 11, 2020
Your optimistic forecasts will only be realised if the government pursues a competitive strategy w.r.t. attracting businesses and entrepreneurship. So far the signs have not been encouraging, with murmurings of massive tax increases in an (most likely) in vain attempt to cover the cost of covid-19 borrowing.
December 11, 2020
+1
December 11, 2020
Why are we so reluctant to call a brick a brick?
Remoaners went out of their way to paint the worst possible scenarios for Brexit, and still do. They tried to justify some with false logic – Most of course had no foundation in reality.
In a normal healthy democracy (of which we are no longer) remoaner false stories and predictions would simply be called lies and deception intended to cause harm.
December 11, 2020
To the 3 Remain EU demands Mrs Thatcher’s classy answer “No! No! No!”
They have never respected Britain’s contributions.
And while you’re there “I want my money back!”
December 11, 2020
Nothing much of what Remain had to say in the sphere of financial forecasting had much relevance because it was said for political purposes. That departments of state can be so blatantly political is the great worry. It was possibly because they saw their ultimate authority as the EU and bent to their will, as has been the case with the BBC, and continues.
It is well documented that the EU see the outcome of our departure as a punishment. Barnier went into print on it once the referendum result was known. The real sticking point in the negotiating end game is that the EU cannot accept that the UK is now, or about to be, a sovereign state once more. This is heresy in their minds. If they cannot accept the sovereign state concept they will not accept that decision making has shifted from them to us. Our territorial waters, 200 miles or the median line are in our jurisdiction as are the fish within them. Any invitation or licencing to fish in them by EU boats is in our jurisdiction, not at the demand or threat of any EU state or the EU as a whole. Likewise the choice of how we conduct ourselves as a trading nation and the way we tax the economy is our decision. I find the EU demand that we fall into line with the way they do things and ultimately their ECJ as a final point of decision quite outrageous. Quite obviously they do not want an equable agreement with a nearby sovereign state, they demand dominance they are not entitled to. If my interpretation is correct then WTO trading rules are the way forward. The only advantage of further conversation is that we the UK have been seen to have tried.
December 11, 2020
Julia Hartley Brewer on Question Time last night, as usual, spot on.
December 11, 2020
Indeed and all the rest wrong as usual from the dire BBC. But she said she would not have booed the players taking the knee. Why not BLM is appalling Marxist lunacy? Booing was entirely right.
December 11, 2020
All this because our Politicians of all sides thought the EU would be fair to us.
What utter fools they have been, the Eu is a protectionist organisation and is only interested in helping itself, always had been, always will until some of its members start to suffer big time and their own people start to realise that fact and then act.
Time will tell, I will give it another 25 years before that happens.
December 11, 2020
You expect remainers to proclaim the worst but not some Tory MPs
Canât understand why the government, the whips, and all Tory MPs arenât talking up an Australian style deal i.e WTO and our growth potential
I still don’t believe you
December 11, 2020
“So what did happen and what will happen next year?”
It was easier to discuss policy on the EU when it was given the concrete form of the proposed Withdrawal Agreement. One could then make specific criticisms of the policy based on, for example, Articles 4, 127, 129(6), 136, 142, 150, 160 and 174.
By contrast, there are only three weeks left in 2020 and no-one appears to know what Mr. Johnson intends for the UK come January 1st.
December 11, 2020
I think the reason for the lack of a future plan is pretty obvious đ Nothing will substantially change, and so the plan is to keep calm and carry on with the EU.
December 11, 2020
During the next 3 days the news channels and MSM are referring to the needs and wants of political partyâs, big business, the EU, the French fishermen, our/their economyâŠâŠjust about everyoneâs view apart from the referendum vote winners
December 11, 2020
Of course, that exceptional growth rate cannot be compared with those rates seen before the pandemic because most of it will be due to the bounce back and recovery from the dire losses suffered in 2020.
Much of our future prosperity will depend on us weathering everything that the EU will try to throw at us in their ongoing attempt to discourage any other member state from leaving.
Boris is absolutely right in saying no to the ridiculous terms we are being offered. The British character is very resilient and we are probably the World’s leading exponent of fair play in business and sport. Our citizens will rise to the challenge. We will back the government and will turn towards buying from anywhere other than the EU.
We will be more determined than ever to succeed in the face of all the difficulties the EU will try to place in our way. We will have to reciprocate to every predatory move they make, whether it is over health insurance, truck permits or overflying rights until common sense prevails.
The first challenge will be what to do about access to our fishing waters. It will be essential to assert our new status immediately from the first of January. We must be ready with a new regime of quotas based entirely on the sustainability of species. At the same time, we should ban large factory trawlers and the abhorrent Dutch practice of pulse trawling. The case is unarguable and will be welcomed by the green lobby.
We can also be comfortable in announcing a gradual reduction in the percentage of fish that EU boats are allowed to catch in our waters to at most 40% of the overall catch because we currently don’t have the boats to catch the fish we eat here.
December 11, 2020
My wife assures me that the common sense British are not stockpiling against Brexit and that all her friends are not mentioning it. They talk incessantly about covid though.
December 11, 2020
Do you not have any friends of your own to canvass?
December 11, 2020
Hmm, but we haven’t actually left yet have we?
December 11, 2020
” with continuing inward migration increasing the size of the workforce ” – – – – How many of the “migrants” are actually working and contributing towards their, and their families costs here in the UK? I assume the cost of several thousands in hotels aren’t cheap – – not to us it isn’t. To them it shows how stupid this govt is. Arrive illegally – and get better treatment for it than the people who have to work and pay for, not only their own lives, but the lives of the non-working non-English speaking arrivals. Pure insanity. It must be nice in “MP World” – -because you lot certainly aren’t living in the one you create for the rest of us.
December 11, 2020
More amusement from the MsM
“Refusal to accept the rules could lead to British planes being banned from European airspace and British lorries forbidden from driving on continental roads, the bloc warned.”
The UK doesn’t have any planes, there are only EU and other foreign airlines operating from the UK. Even UK airports are foreign owned.
So they want to block transport from their State on the Ireland of Ireland.
It sounds like a shot me in a foot threat.
December 11, 2020
Chicago Convention
December 12, 2020
IAG is Spanish owned and it owns British Airways and British Midland among others.
December 12, 2020
Then we nationalise the operators not operating in the UK national interest.
December 11, 2020
But Sir JR There is more to life than money. Step outside and breathe deeply! Does the fresh air free of the eu not taste great?
Long may it last GREAT BRITAIN
December 11, 2020
Not with a useless face mask on.
December 11, 2020
Talking about the UK/EU deal ââWe aspire to control our watersââ says Von der Leyen today in Brussels – the sheer audacity
December 11, 2020
Sir JR
Why this negative headings when everything apparently is so rosy.
I am not sure the 90.000 hlidren living below the poverty line in London would agree and the young and single mothers paying the price for Covid and now also Brexit?
Actually the contribution is not particular as it dos not address the real problems we have in this country, which are social, educational and also linked to our low productivity.
December 11, 2020
How many of those 90,000 have lived here less than ten years bill?
December 12, 2020
To clarify Iâm asking how many of these families are new to the UK, all the asylum seekers from Syria didnât we take in over 20,000 with nothing when they arrived. Didnât we take in thousands from all over from Afghanistan to Africa that arrived with nothing. Can we please have an investigation on these claims. Iâm sick of these accusations against the Conservative Party making people poorer John, you must stand up to this. Your party let people keep more of their earnings raising the personal allowance lots, your party pushed up the NMW and put in a higher NLW putting it up at double inflation each year for the past few years. Who exactly are these poverty homes. We should not measure families that havenât been here for fifteen years who arrived with 0 but are given homes above British people that have been on waiting lists for council housing that are truly living in poverty after private rental housing costs. This is just all so frustrating.
December 11, 2020
All gains lost. Boris and his globalist masters have managed to overturn 50 years of economic progress and are well on their way to turning this country into a kind of dystopian hell hole than makes George Orwell look ridiculously optimistic.
December 11, 2020
I agree Pete, Brexit only meant anything if the ruling elite understood it as a vote against globalism. Instead they just double down. All gains lost, we live in a dystopian nightmare.
December 11, 2020
I think everyone reading today’s post realises that the author is attempting a sleight of hand here. On the reasonable assumption that there won’t be lockdowns in 2021, it’s obvious that the UK economy is forecast to produce more next year than it did this year. To claim this as evidence for the success of Brexit is misleading and to be honest makes our host look a bit desperate.
The only reasonable comparison one could make at this point in time would be to compare a forecast for UK growth in 2021 with an extension of the current transition period arrangements beyond December 31st and one without. It’s a shame that I haven’t found any such comparison published, but I’m pretty sure I could guess the main points.
December 11, 2020
Whether things were to happen at the time of the referendum vote or at the time of transition period ending is only splitting hairs and makes little sense to argue the fact is we are going to be much worse off in 2021. The other point about all of the growth you say for 2022 in percentage terms is just more spin and bluff as it will be coming off a very low 2021 base- let’s face it we are bunched heading into unknown chaos with expected quality of life going downhill- back to the 1960’s almost.
December 11, 2020
Ah…were the Remainers hoping to prove their dismal forecasts come true by âThe Great Overreactionâ?
December 11, 2020
Tariffs on imports from the EU will be very useful to HM Exchequer looking to fill the foscal gap created by Coronavirus. They will also help to rebalance trade and reduce the long-standing trade deficit with the EU27. This can be achieved while simultaneously signing trade deals with non-EU food exporters to keep supermarket prices low for British shoppers.
A clean reset has other advantages sweeping away the EU Arrest Warrant and other measures than this government seemed intent on recreating. We should also be reconsidering our defence guarantees to EU member states ; there are no grounds for ever shedding British blood to come to the aid of EU countries that have shown they are not just unreliable allies but openly out to punish us.
December 11, 2020
Independent of what? do you think we can become independent of the WTO as well and ignore the rules of that body and what about all of the other agreements reached through the UN, NATO etc etc so how can we ever become really independent. The only countries that were really independent were Hoxha’s Albania and now North Korea but even NK has to import food stuffs and other goods from outside .
December 11, 2020
ben.
Do you not understand the difference between voluntary mutually beneficial agreements between independent sovereign nations and the EU which has the power to impose laws rules regulations directives and even powers over budgets and taxes?
December 11, 2020
Edward 2
New taxes and budgets can only be approaved by netional and European Paliaments and you knwow this as well
December 12, 2020
You miss the point bill.
Ben claimed because nations made trade deals and some were members of bodies like NATO or the UN none were independent.
I replied that the EU was very different as it has power to make laws regulations directives and rules on its member nations.
December 11, 2020
Edward 2 ..the EU is a club it is not a country.. they pool their resources and play down their national sovereignty for mutual benefit. Problem for English apologists is they agree but they want it to be like the old days when they were in charge.. but alas for them treaty of Versailles happened one hundred years ago..britain might have forgotten but not the Germans .,so now you know..Mrs Merkel is not listening .. neither ate the French, the Spanish or the Irish
December 12, 2020
I didn’t claim the EU was a country.
I agree, there are enthusiastic member nations of the EU that have decided they want to “pool” their independence and sovereignty to the EU.
However the UK has decided to return to being an independent nation that makes its own laws in its own Parliament and controls its own money and borders.
I don’t care what the remaining members think of that decision.
December 11, 2020
Thanks Sir John, for a very positive letter today.
I do wish the others in the party could be honest to them selves and us.
Now let us just get this done And get our Sovereignty back.
Those who have worked against the will of the people.
Must expect to face an enquiry, no mater who they are, they should expect to be stripped of any gongs, and never allowed to have any thing to do with politics ever again
December 11, 2020
Ian
Yes, a good old fashioned witch hunt of those who’ve conspired to weaken this country, I’d support that. In fact I’d actively participate.
December 11, 2020
Steve,
You really have to stop believing your own fake news and propaganda
December 13, 2020
Bill Brown
You don’t appear to have much intelligence.
December 11, 2020
The government has little more than a week or so in reality to make it clear to our businesses, to reassure and assist in every possible way and communicate effectively with attention to detail, so that they know what’s what from January 01. I think the rest of us would like to know too.
I note that The Institute for Government meets today under the topic of: ” 3 weeks to go: Is business ready for Brexit”
Fisheries: UK Fisheries stating that the UK must secure a deal with Norway to save our distant-waters fishing fleet & industry, an article issued recently through their media centre is of interest. Norway is apparently very willing, it would be good for the UK we are told but seemingly we the UK / Govmt still need to ask.
December 11, 2020
Most reasonable people, whether they voted Leave or Remain, can see that the EU is behaving egregiously in these negotiations. The EU regards us as a rebellious province which needs to be punished. What is remarkable is the continued existence of a powerful fifth column in this country which consistently acts as cheerleader for these acts of bad faith.
December 11, 2020
Egregious means outstanding. Literally out of the herd or flock. You mean very badly.
December 11, 2020
If it is really true that everything will be rosy after we leave why did we try for a deal, we could have just left.
December 11, 2020
I know – yes we should have left 3 to 4 years ago.
Who said ‘a week is a long time in politics’ -Rab Butler.
‘4 years is a brief time in political issues’.
December 11, 2020
Steve
That was exactly the choice that was on the ballot paper you completed
The suggestion of needing any sort of deal to leave was not mentioned at all as an option, but perhaps I missed that box, but I do not think so.
December 11, 2020
Nor was not having one, and it was self-evident that an agreement would be required. It’s part of Article Fifty in any case, for goodness’ sake.
December 11, 2020
Most of us, over 17 million, know that and voted for it.
December 11, 2020
And the BBC continues with its anti-Brexit bias.
Yesterday they were saying that the UK has ‘failed’ to reach an agreement with the EU. They never say the EU has ‘failed’ to reach agrement with us. Today they are saying the UK will ‘have to’ trade on WTO terms from 1st January – again slanting everything to the negative.
Come 1st of January will government act against the BBC for their years of subversion?
December 11, 2020
Media collectively is really weird now… just look at the headlines in the Express
Front page
“Brexit Live : EU throws Boris Johnson’s last-minute Brexit offer back in his face” 07:43 Dec 11
right under that
“EU-U-Turn: Von der Leyen backs down on Brexit demands after all-night talks with Merkel” 10:23 Dec 11
“Boris erupts at EU ‘ratchet clause’ to keep UK ‘locked into’ Brussels rules post Brexit” 12:46 Dec 11
“Boris set to cave? PM ready to ‘go the extra mile and explore every avenue’ to reach deal. 13:33 Dec 11
December 11, 2020
Prangwizard
“Yesterday they were saying that the UK has âfailedâ to reach an agreement with the EU. ”
=========
Yes I noticed that too. More England-hating propagandist claptrap, well past time they were silenced.
Boris must now fulfil his promise to decriminalise licence fee non payment.
December 11, 2020
+1
December 11, 2020
The BBC quite rightly continues with its anti-falsehood bias – where it can be bothered to identify them that is.
December 11, 2020
This is no time to stand down the UK’s naval reserve. On the contrary, it should be pepped up and trained in readiness for attempts by EU trawlers to fish in our waters. If necessary we may need to hole and sink the more impudent trespassers.
December 11, 2020
cut the nets…
December 11, 2020
There have been cod wars before and we didn’t come out of them very well- a lot of these foreign stern trawlers are specially strengthened for harsh ice conditions- not the same with the naval patrol vessels
December 11, 2020
You know these other european countries have been fishing these waters for hundreds of years in traditional terms they have squatters rights so i can see this going all the way to higher courts. Before 1973 we did not have fishing limits out to 200 miles.
December 11, 2020
I don’t know which faraway country or era you’re posting from, but pre-1973 conventions were superseded by the UN in 1982, when coastal rights worldwide (including sea and mining rights) were precisely defined for every country by UN global treaties, most recently by UNCLOS III (1982, ratified 1994). The UK (as a signatory) will have that UN treaty protection the moment the EU’s laws cease to apply to us. The UN (the highest international court) has already acknowledged the UK’s rights in the matter, so there can be no appeal.
The EU, asleep at the wheel as usual, forgot that under international law from 1st January 2021 they will have no fishing rights in our waters whatsoever except by our specific agreement. Any annually agreed provisional rental agreement will cost them far more than ÂŁ39bn. As is gradually dawning on the good burghers of the Berlaymont.
Game, set, match.
December 11, 2020
Yes we did.
December 12, 2020
Doesn’t that also apply to Norway, Iceland, the Faroe Islands, etc? They don’t give away their fish for free due to ‘squatters rights’. International law has changed since 1973, and new rules apply.
December 11, 2020
Standing down our Royal Navy Reserve has Gove written all over it
December 11, 2020
Why do EU politicians say we must do something. I have learnt in life that I mustnâtâ do anything unless it fits with my agenda.
Equally independent countries âmustnât do anything that doesnât sit with that independence.
Will someone tell them to p** off?
December 11, 2020
Remember, Boris does not make the decisions. He is a puppet of the UK Establishment. Do some research people and find out WHO really is in control.
Nothing can stop what is coming, NOTHING.
December 11, 2020
Please tell me that the Withdrawal Agreement, Political Declaration and NI (Gove) Protocol are dead in the water
December 11, 2020
hopefully torn up and pinned to the wall in a latrine.
December 11, 2020
+1
December 11, 2020
How come the Bank of England governor doesn’t share your confidence, please explain that one Sir John. Please don’t get me wrong I voted for Brexit, but also new there was a price to be paid in the short term, in the mid to long term we’ll be just fine.
reply The Bank is usually wrong on EU matters. I also disagreed with their support for the ERM and was right and decried their Brexit Referendum forecasts and was right.
December 11, 2020
Reads like slithery stuff from something in the grass
December 11, 2020
Finally the cliff- and i don’t hear ‘let them go whistle’ anymore- it’s clear they have decided we need a period of time out for reflection
December 11, 2020
The EU can have as much ‘time out for reflection’ as they want. The RoI will have the opportunity to reflect on the disaster its hapless governments and Brussels together have inflicted on its economy, as they are barred from the British mainland, and forced to ferry goods on a two- to three-day sea voyage. Macron can reflect on his woeful mis-reading of ‘Negotiation for Dummies’, Frau Merkel will have time to rue her patchy, Soviet-orientated and paternally inherited anglophobic prejudices, German industrialists will be able to work out where their unsubtle subversion went wrong, the Eastern Europeans will regret barring themselves from Britain, and Frau von der Leyen can go back to riding on broomsticks…
… Oh, and the multi-ID poster can consult with his other IDs as to what makes his identity so amusingly obvious.
December 12, 2020
Mancunius- It’s just I move about so much I forget which handle I’m using also using different computers so ok will try to use same multi-ID for the future don’t want to cause any problems. How is the weather in Germanyđ
December 11, 2020
JR
I’d be interested to know why you don’t allow mention of the french attacking our fishing boats, and the attacks on our people and livestock at Calais some years ago.
They are well documented fact, and were even televised at the time.
Surely, Sir, you are not attempting to silence criticism of such appalling behaviour ?
December 11, 2020
JR
Some of tonights headlines from the Daily Mail, the Brexiteers bible:
Markets fall with Britain on the brink of No Deal Brexit: Pound suffers biggest daily drop in months and FT
Christmas gifts delayed until MARCH! UK ports chaos sparks warning that items from PS5s, AirPods, coffee machines and DIY tools may not arrive by December 25 SE 100 plummets by 1% to 6,526
Norway says it will stop European AND British fishing boats from accessing its cod-rich waters from January 1 as a result of their failure to agree Brexit deal
December 11, 2020
The Mail has a new editor.
December 12, 2020
Alas it does.
December 11, 2020
Scare mongering remoaner.
Norway has already signed a seperate deal with the UK government with regard fising.
The ports chaos is World Wide I.e los Angeles has a greater problem than the UK ports – it is the world playing catch up
The DM has and is a remain, make it up rag
December 12, 2020
âNew Daily Mail editor to be Geordie Greig – Pro-remain editor of Mail on Sunday to replace Paul Dacre at top of Brexit-backing paperâ Guardian 7 June 2018. It is not a Brexiteers bible, remain own it now.
December 11, 2020
I’ll ‘forecast’ that if Boris sticks to his guns, his personal standing with the British public will soar.
December 11, 2020
What “guns”?
And to what position has he ever stuck before?
Can you not see the predicament in which this country is?
You’re as deluded as those fools who claim that Trump won the most secure election in US history.
December 11, 2020
really? 3 or 4 years that easily forgiven?
December 11, 2020
+1 and even more if he cancels HS2, his green revolution lunacy and cuts the size of the bloated and largely parasitic state sector.
December 11, 2020
No there is too much to forgive, delivering Brexit is THE LEAST HE CAN DO. He is under direct instructions from the Sovereigns – the people.
Boris must go. Even my hairdresser thinks heâs âmadâ.
December 11, 2020
Sea_warrios
Boris is incompetent
December 11, 2020
Australian Terms means WTO Rules plus- but we are not even there yet
After WTO will come the difficulties especially in Scotland- no need for me to say anymore
After Scotland will come NI- demographics will be the driving force here, and then
Finally England will decide Southern England and Northern England
You think I’m not being serious- and none of this to do with fishing
December 11, 2020
Had we voted Remain.
What do you think would have become of us then ?
December 11, 2020
No so much the pandemic as the over reaction to it and NHS and other government bodies incompetence at dealing with it. They cannot do a rational vaccine priority list that adjusts for the higher risks. Hundred perhaps killed just by this childish error.
December 11, 2020
I refer you to Ode To Joy – all men shall be brothers music by Beethoven in You Tube and courtesy of Andre Rieu. Hopefully we will see you after midnight 31st
December 11, 2020
So, we now have the BBC quoting Boris as saying a deal unlikely to be reached by Sunday – so does that mean a deal will be reached after Sunday ?
Boris really does need to close that shit raking outfit down once and for all. It isn’t doing him, his party or the country any service at all, just deliberately spreading uncertainty and instability.
December 11, 2020
No deal BREXIT suposedly 3% of GDP
Rushi Sunak, 2020 British GDP has fallen over the year by 10%.
QED COVID is 3 times worse than BREXIT.
Yet all the BBC can mindlessly chatter about is BREXIT.
John Redwood. The adminstration you support is going to have to find
somea lot of extra money next year. Start by axing the BBC.December 11, 2020
I don’t know what sort of country we’re meant to be saving from the EU.
The CV-19 response across the Western world has been disastrous and I include New Zealand in that (which has suffered a record drop in GDP – which will cost a lot of young lives.)
December 12, 2020
No Longer Anonymous: “The CV-19 response across the Western world has been disastrous ..”
Therefor, the EU would not have saved us from anything. This disaster was self inflicted and an example of why internationalism is a bad idea.
Sweden, lower level of deaths than UK, with voluntary isolation. COVID-19 deaths per million population: Sweden 714, UK 942.4.
I conclude, the UK lock-down has been aa utter failure.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/
December 11, 2020
Boris and Queen Carrieâs insane green crap with perhaps another 5% or more off GDP. The BBC are absolutely appalling a blatant propaganda outfit and totally wrong on almost every single issue.
December 11, 2020
Almost certainly the current impasse will end with a further 6 month extension into next year. The EU obviously has a vested interest in preserving the status quo – they export far more to us then we do to them – having given the matter much thought over the past few days, I think we should just leave. We can put up with the disruption and come out of it stronger.
After UDI (a comparable situation) Rhodesia was subjected to sanctions etc for years – but built a strong domestic economy, replacing their imports and still managed to fight Mugabe, Nkomo and Co to a standstill.
Eventually, of course the Rhodesian government had to come to terms after the Portuguese pulled out of Angola and Mozambique. But there is no reason for us to have to do the same. We hold a strong hand and should play our cards to win. Just leave and let Meriel and Macron get their taxpayers to replace our contributions.
December 12, 2020
The Rhodesians were destroyed by Lord Carrington. Read âThe Great Betrayalâ by Ian Smith WWII RAF veteran and PM of Rhodesia (where there was no apartheid).
December 11, 2020
“All this because our Politicians of all sides thought the EU would be fair to us.”
I am with you on this.
I am not sure if Politicians really believed it but at least they made people belive it.
Utter naivety. Incerdible naivety.
Trade deals are never easy and nor is politics. Countries have interests – not friends (H. Kissinger).
People also bought the idea that EU and UK are on equal level in terms of leverage.
Equal?On same terms?
Naivety to exponental level!
In trade size really does matter and EU is huge – UK is big but still quite much smaller than EU. People just don’t seem to get this part.
As long as EU will exist we can be sure that they will show the not so nice side of them to us.
But still: negotiations with USA will be much more brutal. Wait and see.
December 11, 2020
Sir JR
ye the UK economy will outgrow both the French and teh German economy according to t heEIU in 2021, but it wil still be significantly behind the French and German economy in terms of catching up from lost growth, due to bigger losses during teh Covid 19 period.
So , this is just another example of your fake news, not much of a recommendation
December 12, 2020
What did Sir John say that is âfakeâ bill, you come on to his blog with your accusations, set up a straw man argument and call him out for âfake newsâ you are rude bill.
December 12, 2020
a-tracy
I am simply saying that Sir JR did not give the full picture of the very precarious state of the UK economy and the fact that we have more catching up to do then both France and Germany that we were compared with,which leaves an impression of half a cooked message according to the figures from the EIU, and as Sir JR is the firste oo talk about “project fear” he should give teh full priture in his version. SO I stand by my statement of half faked news
December 12, 2020
No I donât accept that it is now âhalf faked newsâ.
Iâve read Sir Johnâs post again and there is no comparison in his message to France and Germany and you seem to forget they are about to cut themselves off from their British market in solidarity.
There is nothing more determined than a Brit with their back up against a wall Bill, we will find other solutions instead of pratting around with people over trade deals who were clear from the start there were too many strings attached; hopefully Liz Truss has been getting on with finding replacements for at risk items, Iâm sure that she wonât admit that up front if she has. WE WANT TO MANUFACTURE MORE IN THE UK BILL, we want more car plants back and car parts factories back if the EU wonât play then there are lower cost brands like Kia that are bring out greener cleaner technologies Iâm confident there are deals to be done the people with the spending power do own some cards even if you believe we donât.
December 12, 2020
But if we grow faster than France and Germany then we will make up that relative difference quickly.
First remainers like you said there would be economic doom right after the vote to leave
When that didn’t happen you then moved on to say there will be economic doom after December 31st.
Now eonomists say the UK will have growth much better than leading EU nations you try another angle to deny it.
Ridiculous wriggling bill.
December 12, 2020
Edward 2
Stop trolling as I never said what you state
December 13, 2020
Remainers like you.
That is what I said bill.
December 12, 2020
Bull your statement was âfake newsâ not âhalf-fake newsâ.
But of course Bull is a German and we know how they love the British.
December 12, 2020
Lynn Atkinson
take your medicine
December 12, 2020
Edward 2
Stop trolling as I never said what you state
December 13, 2020
Your usual method to avoid responding properly bill.
December 13, 2020
Edward 2
I am just using your own methods about trolls
December 13, 2020
You are so very kern on trolls bill
You are the expert after all.
December 13, 2020
Edward 2
I am just using your own methods about trolls
December 13, 2020
You demand sources and statistics from everyone but never give any yourself.
Hilarious hypocrisy bill.