The pound was worth $1.44 on 17 June before the referendum and $1.37 the day after the vote. It is currently $1.36.
The FTSE 100 was at 6021 on June 17th, at 6138 the day after the vote and is now 6499
The FTYSE 250 was at 16422 on June 17, fell to 16088 the day after the vote and is now at 20420
This is nothing like the pessimistic forecasts of the official institutions and the Remain campaign prior to the vote. It is all the more impressive given the big economic damage done over the last year by anti CV 19 policies pursued by all advanced nations.
December 24, 2020
The forecasts weren’t real; just scare tactics designed to frighten the sheeple into voting the ‘right’ (i.e pro globalist – let’s abolish sovereign nations) way.
December 25, 2020
+1
December 25, 2020
Economic damage done by your Fake Tory Govt. It was choices made by people not an inanimate object. The inanimate object only effects less than 0.5% of the population in a seriois way.
The destruction of the economy was a choice made by Johnson.
Papers note Sunak left Downing Street London just before lockdown for Yorkshire. Is he one of the totally irresponsible ones named by Hancock or one rule for you one rule for everyone else?
December 25, 2020
“The euro will be dead and buried by Christmas 2012” – Nigel Farage.
In the early 2000s it would have cost you typically 55p.
Today it will cost you 90p and the rest.
He has failed in his paramount aim.
December 25, 2020
Martin, The Euro only survived past 2012 because the EU ignored its own rules. People keep being fooled by the intrinsic corruption of the EU, they keep thinking the EU will behave honourably – even Nigel Farage.
December 24, 2020
So why did the BoE instruct ‘Banks’ to withhold dividends
Especially when they all passed the BoE stress tests ?
December 25, 2020
Another government rigged market which does huge economic damage.
December 24, 2020
Blimey Sir John. What is this? Not serious commentary, that’s for sure.
The pound rose today in anticipation of the deal. I’m sure the markets understood what kind of deal it was. The notion that the ‘strong’ pound and the (ludicrously inflated by QE) bullish stock market somehow vindicates Brexit is too absurd for words. Why does this post even exist? To score a measly point against an utterly failed Remain electoral campaign, when the real fight to remain in the EU’s sphere was won by Remain?
Blimey.
December 25, 2020
Inflated by QE? This is not what QE does. it might inflate some asset prices but mainly by measuring them using a devaluing measure of the Ā£.
December 25, 2020
We don’t disagree. More Ā£s, $s and ā¬s means they are worth less (basic supply and demand), meaning more are required to purchase assests, meaning higher/inflated asset prices, and therefore an inflated stock market. The real economy hasn’t frown, and obviously contracted significantly this past year, yet stock markets have hit record highs. This effect is especially pronounced in the US. It’s one huge bubble, and this is what Sir John points to as vindication of Brexit. Madness.
December 25, 2020
The worst public health policy failing in history, the worst economic policy in history, the worst recession in over 300 years. The worst debt ratio to GDP and this is the best spin JR can manage!
Destroyed liberty freedom and free speech and peaceful demonstration. We are more like living in North Korea than the U.K.
Johnson aced in to,lvel playing field let EU control ourmterritoroal waters for 51\2 more years before the U.K. Gets 66% ofmfishing rights back! He just gave away N.Ireland and is celebrating!
Good grief.
December 24, 2020
Not really germane.
More important to keep your eyes on EU tricks.
They spent years trying to close down our industry and farming. They won’t take us building it up again lightly.
December 25, 2020
+1
So true
December 25, 2020
But build it up we must.
Dover has shown us what reliance on imports does, we need to be more self sufficient and government policy should encourage that.
Britain first.
December 25, 2020
+1, doubtless this treaty and the ālevel playing fieldā (rules to prevent the UK being remotely competitive) will handicap the UK hugely as does this bloated, inept and essentially socialist government that feather beds the largely parasitic state sector while largely destroying the private sector. Where is the new John James Cowperthwaite?
December 25, 2020
Sir Joe
I’m afraid ‘They’ (whoever they are supposed to be) didn’t have to try at all:
We did it all by ourselves.
December 25, 2020
Margaret, Sir Joe quite clearly said that “they” are the EU. You need to read more carefully and try to avoid simply reacting to trigger words.
December 24, 2020
Care to do it against the EURO ?
Let me do it for you. On June 22nd 2016, the Pound was worth 1.32 Euro. Tonight, it is only worth 1.10.
Merry Christmas, Sir John !
Really looking forward to you defending this deal both Macron and Merkel approve.
December 24, 2020
never use Euros – why would I care?
December 24, 2020
Easy answer Tabula Zero as big speculators hedge bets that the EU would sink Britain and give it a punishment beating much like Soros bet against the Ā£ years before which incidentally Sir John wisely advised against joining the Euro for which we are extremely grateful.
December 25, 2020
ukretired
Don’t you regret then that the euro has replaced the Ā£ as the second most used trading currency after the dollar? And how can you explain that?
In fact, the Ā£ is now in fourth place after the yen. Not every good is it?
December 26, 2020
And do you regret that English became the Lingua franca nearly 30 years ago coinciding with the digital revolution replacing French and Latin before it? No no regrets Maggie!
December 26, 2020
Almost forgot that 27 countries forced into adopting the Euro too!
Plus Gordon Brown’s give away of our Gold reserves.
December 24, 2020
Yet if you buy and sell goods internationally most contracts are completed in US dollars.
You wouldn’t know that NM because you’ve never actually run a business nor ever actually bought and sold goods in international markets.
December 24, 2020
Despatrate sruff, tabularzero.
December 25, 2020
Desperate typing, NOTA.
December 25, 2020
So I guess you are pointing out that UK Exports into Europe are now less expensive and that EU Imports more so – and that perhaps therefore we will now buy less of them, thereby helping out our Balance of Trade with the EU?
December 25, 2020
It was well known at the time that the Ā£ was overvalued.
December 24, 2020
Linking sterling exchange rates or FTSE levels, on any one day, to events surrounding Brexit is simply a pointless exercise.
December 24, 2020
Correct. Thatās the satirical point John is making, the Remainers have constantly for four years pointed to the exchange rate as proof that Brexit is a disaster. Personally I think a weaker pound is a good thing, helps exports, plenty of EU countries in the south would benefit from a weaker Euro.
December 24, 2020
Thank you for these figures. Too late to publish the size of most tariffs in relation to fluctuations in currency.
Have a very happy Christmas, thank you for all your information and analysis, and we look forward to your verdict on the document.
December 24, 2020
Don’t worry Mr Redwood at some point the lack of goods to buy and the torrent of new currency will drive it down to zero. That is the true value of anything produced by government.
December 24, 2020
Well, I for one will give credit where it is due. The forecasts of economic trauma to which our host refers were probably founded upon assumptions that a free trade arrangement for goods would take several years to reach after the withdrawal of the UK. Mr Frost and his team of FCO negotiators have worked like banshees this year and have proven those assumptions to be incorrect. Their counterparts on M. Barnierās team have done likewise (letās not forget that it takes two to make a contract) and deserve equal credit. I wish all of them a fine Christmas.
December 24, 2020
The last thing this country needs is a zero tariff trade deal with the EU. It means a lack of protection for our industries from the EU that the EU makes damn sure they have for theirs from the rest of the world.
We cannot simplify the EU rules that govern us, because the EU will whinge we are undercutting them. Since no politician has mentioned it, I presume Northern Ireland remains annexed by the EU.
This is BINO, or to put it truthfully we remain under EU control, with part of our country annexed, paying them in money and fish – conditions that no other country in the world has, or would, accept.
December 25, 2020
Campaigning for the BRINO/BINO referendum is well under way. I respect your use of BINO. It is a more literal acronym. I might even be persuaded were the stress firmly on that first syllable, BIN-o. But pronouncing it like the august comic journal undermines the seriousness of the message. Can I therefore persuade you to join the BRINO (Brie-no) ranks? As well as possessing a more mellifluous quality, there is also an important, if subtle, message (BRINO, cheddar yes). All the best.
December 24, 2020
Honestly, the best the Remainers can come up with is the deal is terrible because UK is no longer in the Erasmus programme – an expensive university exchange programme that benefits a few thousand middle-class kids. Good luck selling that as a problem to working class tax payers.
December 25, 2020
Love the thoughts. All market trades are in reality based on the sales spin of what is ‘termed as market makers’. They play fast and loose with rumour and counter rumour. The basic priority is earnings, no sales, means no earnings for either the guys involved or the outfits they produce for. A static market represents hard times for the city. Up or down it doesn’t actually matter.
Any half aware company trading across borders has currency fluctuations covered and in practice earns on from a simple transaction. If as an exporter or importer is not also earning from the difference between currencies they should pack up and find another occupation
But yes Sir John the naysayers were trying to feed the system and lost – they don’t get it. As the Germans and Chinese know keeping a currency undervalued enhances exports while protecting ones home market. The pound could do with falling to equalise that deliberate market manipulation
December 25, 2020
The OBR showed a graph as to how our economy will decline for not being in the EU. But the decline they show starts in 2016, but we only truly leave this year. So why according to the OBR are we doing so badly while in?? Or do OBR forecasts to be taken with a pinch of salt.
December 25, 2020
The point is actually well taken. The levels of both Sterling and the FTSE are determined by investors – and speculators – who are deciding if or if not to invest in UK assets.
These people don’t actually care about Remainers’ favourite hobby horses. They don’t care about urban snobbery of whether Europeans approve of us, but only about the performance of UK investments *as* investments post-Brexit.
They now, quite rightly, push to buy UK assets, and since they are priced in Sterling, they have to buy Sterling also. This is a sentiment-free process, since any manager who invested his customers’ money based on slogans or prejudices would soon get fired.
If Remainers doubt this, let them recall how angry they were when the rumour got out that Farage made money by betting against the fools who panicked and sold the day after the referendum. Insight always beats strong emotion.
December 25, 2020
Indeed and imagine just how much more successful still we would have been still had we had a sensible real Conservative government. One that believed in low simple taxes, easy hire and fire, a bonfire of red tape, freedom and choice, no second lockdown, not rigging markets to stop competition (such as healthcare, education, broadcasting, energy, pensions, banking), wanted fewer incentives to be feckless, a far smaller government (doing only the very few things that governments can do better), a police and justice system that tackled real crimes and if we ditched the expensive intermittent energy lunacy and the climate alarmist religion.
Doubtless this new EU treaty will prohibit most of these sensible actions for many years to come.
December 25, 2020
As the Brexit side won – well we do have a departure in name — shouldn’t we now see a purge throughout our society of those that worked so hard to deny us even this exit.
Given we are so full of socialists, this concept should be real to them – choose the wrong horse and lose your shirt.
But Hey, we are not like that – we let the losers stay so they can fight to undermine us another day.
December 25, 2020
The UK left last January.
These are post-exit arrangements, and they can be revisited at any time, subject to the agreement of the European Union.
And they sure will be, believe me.
No Parliament Can Bind Its Successor.
The Tories cannot future-proof any of this.
December 25, 2020
Four years until the useless Labour lot try to overturn a huge 80 seat majority.
Dream on Martin.
December 26, 2020
Edward 2
You think they can be much more useless , in what we have got now?
December 26, 2020
Yes considerably worse.
I read their last manifesto.
No wonder they had their worst election result since 1935.
December 26, 2020
Edward 2
I agree the last manifesto was a disaster
December 26, 2020
Bryan Haris,
this is democracy live with it
December 26, 2020
Socialism has never been about democracy – only the death of freedom
December 25, 2020
Making interventions on interest rates is the choice and gift of governments but interventions and manipulations of the pound, the ftse and brexit is just wrong and should be left to market forces
December 26, 2020
gle cullen
Most goverenment do not even have an influence on interest rates
December 26, 2020
The markets are manipulated by the Globalists to suit THEIR agenda.
December 26, 2020
Paul Cuthbertson,
Could we kindly have some examples for that staement?
thank you
December 26, 2020
Sir JR
This is like the remainer campaign any figures can be used just taken at the right time.
The majority of share indexes in Europe ( like Denmark and Germany) have risen much more than the FTSE since the referendum and so has the US. The EURO no pays 1,10 fo a pound and before th referendum it was 1,17 EUro to the Pound, so the figures do not prove much, except we have done less well than the rst of Europe since the referendum.
December 26, 2020
But that isn’t what Sir John was saying bill.
It was that remainers said there would be a disastrous drop in values of the pound against the Dollar and the Euro and the share index the FTSE would fall.
Like all Project Fear predictions these things didn’t happen.
I’m sure everyone is pleased to be told by you that other EU member share indices have done well and that the euro is doing well but the predictions of disaster were focussed on the FTSE and pound and their predictions of post referendum doom were false as can be seen by the straightforward figures in the main article.
December 26, 2020
Why has the value of my pension reduced by over Ā£20,000 over this brexit’ing period ? It has been based on UK investments ? With the numbers quoted I would have expected my pension to have increased in value, or at worst remained roughly the same.