The curious case of the car industry

Remain MPs over the last few years have endlessly warned us that were the UK to end up with a 10% tariff on cars into the EU it would mean  job losses and trouble for a crucial industry. They ignored the possibility that had we ended up with a tariff there might have been some compensatory movement in the currency, and failed to rejoice when an Agreement was reached for zero tariffs anyway. Rules of origin mean that the industry will make and supply more components in  the UK to comply, which is a force to strengthen the industry.

At the same time these Remain MPs were usually demanding much faster progress to net zero carbon, busily condemning diesel and petrol cars as one of the main causes of the climate threat they highlighted. They saw no obvious contradiction or hypocrisy in these two positions. They failed to note that the UK had been especially successful at attracting substantial investment allied to  UK development of diesel engines for  cars and enjoyed a strong position in diesel engine manufacture. They gave no credit to the industry for cleaning up the diesel exhaust so there was practically no particulates passing.  The policy of zero tolerance of diesel cars will mean the closure of all those factories and the loss of all those jobs, far more than they said were at risk from a 10% tariff. The industry itself lobbied strenuously for tariff free trade in diesel and petrol cars, but did not lobby against the banning of exactly the same vehicles a few years later. The likelihood of a ban of course means a major fall in diesel car sales in the meantime, as people seek to avoid the possible fall in values when new ones are banned and as governments made clear their dislike of such vehicles.

It would be interesting to hear from all those who spoke up for the industry what they think will happen as we move to complete bans on  diesel and petrol vehicles. Making an all electric battery car is a  very different process from building an internal combustion engine vehicle. Around a third of the value lies with the battery. The UK needs to rush to catch up on battery production. Where it has a strong position in diesel technology and capacity it has  no such current strength in batteries. It will need to work with our present motor manufacturers over their designs for popular electric cars, and how the parts, batteries and assemblies can be made in  the UK.  I wish the government and industry success.

All we can be sure about is there will be many closures and job losses in diesel and petrol car and component manufacture . There will be a commercial and country scramble to design and produce replacements to the electric standard. The government would  be wise to relax its rules on hybrids, to allow that technology to act as a bridge and reassurance to vehicle buyers. I have no financial  interests in diesels, but do run a  diesel car because I like its range, convenience  and fuel economy. I worry a lot about the costs to jobs and businesses of banning all petrol and diesel cars.

 

130 Comments

  1. Garland
    January 30, 2021

    Or, in short, “the UK car industry has been struggling since Brexit but it’s nothing to do with Brexit”.
    Let me assure you panicking Leavers that you are fooling no one.

    1. jerry
      January 30, 2021

      @Garland; How can pre-existing, and long standing, problems be the fault of Brexit?!

      The UK car industry has been struggling since at least the EU single market, if not the UK joining the EEC back in 1973. Some of the problems were admittedly self inflicted (working practises, lack of customer patriotism, lack of govt support etc) but much was due to the EEC/EU being very much a tripartite group when it comes to the automotive industry (France, Germany & Italy).

      1. Stephen Swanick
        January 30, 2021

        The simple matter is British cars of the 70’s, particularly from BL were useless! Just look back on them now.

        We have in recent years had phenomenal success with say the Mini, but we through some shortsighted decisions ie reluctance to enter into partnership with Honda (political decision) managed to give it BMW

        1. steve
          January 30, 2021

          @Stephen Swanick

          “The simple matter is British cars of the 70’s, particularly from BL were useless!”

          …..You don’t suppose it was penny pinching shit management, and useless customers who didn’t see why they should maintain their purchase ? Then when things go wrong slag off the brand ?

          People too thick to maintain cars shouldn’t own them, simple.

          1. Wil Pretty
            January 30, 2021

            The problems of the British car industry in the 70’s was – reliability.
            It was only when Japanese cars started to be imported that we found out that cars could be made to be reliable.
            Once reliable imports arrived the UK brands lost market share and thus profitability.

          2. Kevin
            January 30, 2021

            Wow thats one hell of a statement , having spoken to various former workers at various B L plants , theft was rife as was absenteeism in the workforce but the management didn’t have a clue !
            Then Datsun arrived with the 120y which always started wet or cold .

          3. jerry
            January 31, 2021

            @Kevin; By you criteria we should be celebrating the USSR Lada brand, cheap as chips and would start in minus 15 deg C when damp! People bought the both the Datsun and then the Lada brands because they were cheap as chips, and came with radios as standard…

        2. jerry
          January 30, 2021

          @Stephen Swanick; The usual nonsense about the British motor industry and reliability. You obviously never owned or had to work on the 1970s era European competition, the only half decent European cars back then were those with telephone numbers for price tags, the rest were either mechanical nightmares or even worse rust-buckets (especially Italian makes), often both.

      2. Trevor Kent
        January 30, 2021

        The British car industry was first hit hard by cheap loans and assistance given to both Japan and Germany after the war enabling them to build cars with the latest technology. British manufacturers struggling with pre war equipment then the IMF dictated loan conditions crippling domestic sales in the 60′. The final blow being the EEC. So from top car exporting country to an also ran, none of which was the industry’s fault,

      3. hefner
        January 30, 2021

        Interesting: the SMMT had not long ago an annual turnover in excess of ÂŁ70bn adding each year about ÂŁ15bn to the UK economy, directly employing 180,000 people and 840,000 across all automotive-related industries. The automobile sector accounted for 13% of the total of UK goods exports.
        Japan having signed a trade agreement with the EU, from 1986 Nissan in Sunderland, then Toyota in 1989 (in Burnaston and Deeside) and Honda between 1989 and 1992 (in Swindon) all came to the UK and were not particularly complaining about their situation as a non-negligible part of their production was going to continental Europe.

        Not bad for a ‘struggling’ industry.

    2. Richard1
      January 30, 2021

      If you are looking for instances of panic look no further than the ridiculous antics of the EU over vaccines. I’ve seen no stronger argument for brexit. Being out of the EU’s shambolic vaccination programme is on its own enough to justify Brexit given the lives that will be saved.

      The point of this post is the car industry has not been adversely affected by Brexit but will be by green virtue signalling – unless you have other evidence?

      1. glynscothern
        January 30, 2021

        if you are in a remote area where phones work and you are on your way home with plenty of barrier ,then you are asked to help some one near you ,by going the extra 20 miles you get there help out and return home only to run out of power, you can always walk to the next house and borrow some Electric in a CAN,?

    3. MiC
      January 30, 2021

      Could someone explain how brexit could possibly be of any benefit whatsoever to any exporting manufacturer – not just of cars – whose main market is the European Union?

      1. Denis Cooper
        January 30, 2021

        https://facts4eu.org/news/2020_oct_truth_about_UK_exporters

        “99.3% of all UK businesses do NOT export to the EU”

        1. MiC
          January 31, 2021

          No, millions of self-employed brickies, plasterers, plumbers and driveway tarmaccers do not.

          However, car makers, agri businesses, pharma, and others employing millions very much do.

          Your point is?

        2. hefner
          February 1, 2021

          Denis, I hope you realised that this wonderful statistics of 99.3% of all businesses refers to the number of British companies, practically considering the local plumber as as one such business and Nissan as another one, and not to their potential impact on the UK economy.

          If you did not realise that, well … but that’s how fact4eu.org has been pulling the wool on everybody’s eyes for more than 5 years now. But who am I to prevent you from quoting these brilliantly researched statistics.

          1. hefner
            February 1, 2021

            And a further proof of the inanity of the facts4eu statement would be to wonder why Liz Truss is working so hard to link the UK to the CPTPP if only 0.7% of UK business were to be possibly involved in future trade agreements.

  2. Peter Wood
    January 30, 2021

    Good Morning Sir John,
    Over the past 10 or so days you have been making excellent suggestion and proposals as to how UK can grasp the many opportunities to make Brexit a success. I fervently hope that ministers responsible will present soon their plans to do so.
    However, there is a glaring problem that will only get bigger with each idea and success of our new policies. As we have seen with the vaccines, the EU bureaucracy will seek to sabotage all our progress at every turn. Fortunately for us, on this occasion, they’ve embarrassed themselves instead of harming us. The EU has made it clear, they see us as a threat to be beaten and restrained. What will our government do to protect our economic activities from EU abuse of the present arrangements?

    1. agricola
      January 30, 2021

      Pertinent observation.

      1. Mark B
        January 30, 2021

        +1

    2. BJC
      January 30, 2021

      It would appear that the EU has taken control of the production of the vaccine in everything, but name; it’s simply being policed further up the line to bypass the NI problem, but the end result can and will be the same and easily evolve into an export ban. For some peculiar reason, this is hailed as an EU climbdown in the media! We can only hope that the government has alternative arrangements in place, but I doubt it.

    3. Narrow Shoulders
      January 30, 2021

      And it seems not a competitive threat but an existential threat. As the Commission seeks to centralise and federalise further so our agility shows independence has its merits.

      As it often the case the reality is that a mix of economies of scale and agility is probably the best model, something like a free trade area without political interference. We could call it the European Economic Community and keep borders open to goods and services and tourists but ensure that workers are contributing over all if they come.

      As for the car industry, politicians have again shown the law of (un)intended consequences every time they act. Government does best when it does least.

    4. rose
      January 30, 2021

      It hasn’t taken long to unite the entire British Isles against the EU’s tyrannical and lawless behaviour: the Conservatives, the Labour Party, the DUP, Sinn Fein, and even Tweedledee and Tweedledum in Dublin! That border should obviously be across the Celtic Sea, not down the Irish Sea.

    5. Christine
      January 30, 2021

      Ms von der Leyen tweeted later on Friday: “Constructive talks with Prime Minister @BorisJohnson tonight.

      Has Boris offered to give the EU our vaccine supply?

      We demand to know what he has said.

    6. Fedupsoutherner
      January 30, 2021

      I was only saying the same this morning. They will try anything to stop us becoming a more successful nation.

  3. Everhopeful
    January 30, 2021

    That’s nice to know. You worry a lot about the costs to jobs of banning petrol and diesel.
    I do hope that you also find a few minutes to reflect on the appalling damage your government has done to lives and livelihoods and health.
    You do realise how bad everything is. Do you?

    1. jerry
      January 30, 2021

      @Everhopeful; Are you referring to the last 12 month or the last 40 years…

    2. Caterpillar
      January 30, 2021

      Everhopeful,

      Whether one agrees with Sir John’s arguments or not, he has, for example, written clearly on the damage of lockdown and the damage of a rushed ‘green’ policy as above. When I read Sir John’s comments they appear to come from an assumption of decency i.e. Govt tries to make decisions for the benefit of the individual people in the country, Sir John’s opinions always appear to be argued on the basis that the Govt is well intended but might have made errors in premises, evidence or reasoning. I think it is the assumption of the decency of the Govt that is now incorrect, but it can be difficult to transitions one’s worldview.

      Some politicians may have begun to make the transition away from the decency assumption. I think of Sir Graham Brady’s comment at the Cambridge Union debate this week (28/1/22), “Whether Govt has any right to remove fundamental human rights from innocent people 
” This is a huge comment* and its implications, for me, reflect better the overall perspective one should apply to appraising the current Govt’s policies.

      In order to judge the Govt’s Covid, green/build back better and other policies one should not only evaluate under the decency assumption, but one should evaluate under a conspiracy assumption. To perform the mental shift, I move from sentence (1) to (2) below – then consider the policy.

      (1) Every death is a tragedy, but every life shouldn’t be.
      (2) Every death is a tragedy, but think of the power if every life could be made into one.

      With sentence (2) in mind, policies look very different.

      * A striking analogy to make this point has been observed by several over the past months. The Govt is acting like an abusive partner, telling you where you can/cannot work, telling you how far you can travel, telling you how often you can leave the home, tracking your movements, punishing you if you break the rules, but of course doing this for your own benefit. We would not accept an abusive partner’s defence that he/she was acting in the interests of their partner.

      1. Mark B
        January 30, 2021

        Brilliantly and beautifully put.

  4. Ian Wragg
    January 30, 2021

    This will be another screeching u turn as we don’t and won’t have the infrastructure for fully electric vehicles.
    Boris and nut job will be gone and net zero May just a blot on the history books.
    China and India will prosper whilst our noble leaders take us to poverty.

    1. Nig l
      January 30, 2021

      I object to the term nut job. Apart from the fact that it is not true much like most of your dystopian views, it is condescending and rude.

  5. Peter
    January 30, 2021

    The arguments over the covid vaccine availability for the EU are an interesting development.

    They are certainly not winning any friends with their high-handed attitude and threats.

    We are out and there is no going back.

    However, EU behaviour could be helpful to enable the UK to progress to the next stage where we finish the job and remove all the bad elements of the Brexit agreement. If the EU continue to alienate the British public it will be so much easier to hand in notice that we are going to WTO terms. Our dealings with them would then be far more straightforward.

    1. Lifelogic
      January 30, 2021

      JVCI and ministers still preferring to kill hundred by failing to make the vaccine priority order reflect the fact that men of age 60 have about the same risk as women of 65. Still what is a few hundred extra unnecessary deaths to government and JCVI experts? Still time to change this and save these lives but it seems they would prefer them to die.

      If the rest of the World followed and also adopted the one shot first agenda (that I also suggested months back) it will save hundreds of thousands of lives.

      1. a-tracy
        January 30, 2021

        Maybe it is because in 2017/18 there were a lot more women that year compared to men that died of that years excess flu deaths and this is a rebalance for last year and moving forward it would be more equal deaths between male/female.

        1. Lifelogic
          January 30, 2021

          No just that men are at circa double the risk for a given age probably for genetic reasons.

      2. hefner
        January 30, 2021

        Lifelogic, could you please give the reference(s) of your statement about 60-year men and 65-year women susceptibility to Covid-19, namely that a 60-year old man is as likely as a 65-year old woman to catch Covid-19, and therefore should be vaccinated in parallel.

        I have now looked for three days to find such a source without success. It is not on the John Hopkins CSSE website, nor on the Worldometer tracker, nor in the Williamson et al. 2020 Nature paper, nor in any of the US CDC daily briefings. There are indeed statistics by sex, or by age, some limited studies during the April first period showing men being twice as infected as women but with no reference to age.

        Given your insistence on repeating such a statement almost daily, you must certainly have a rather obvious reference that could be easily checked by people on this blog and that I must stupidly have overlooked. Thanks in advance as I always am keen on learning from the best.

    2. John Hatfield
      January 30, 2021

      Peter, the government does not work for the British public. If it did we would have left the EU as a sovereign nation without any strings attached.

    3. Ian Wragg
      January 30, 2021

      We didn’t elect her so she should have no say in uk politics.
      Much of this Damascene conversion of Boris is her doing.
      When history is written there will be astonishment at the gross stupidity of our leaders and their consorts.

  6. Lifelogic
    January 30, 2021

    The only real advantage of electric cars is they take some of the pollution out of cities back to the power station. Thus giving cleaner city air. Hybrids that can do say 30 miles on battery do this too and they only need a battery of 1/10 of the size, weight and cost. Plus they do not have the range limitations and can be refilled in seconds.

    Electric cars are not zero emission, save little or no CO2 after considering manufacture and electricity production are very expensive and have short battery life. Often indeed usually the greenest thing for many people to do is to keep running you old car rather than causing a new one to be made.

    1. jerry
      January 30, 2021

      +10…
      Couldn’t agree with you more Lifelogic!

    2. steve
      January 30, 2021

      LL
      “….usually the greenest thing for many people to do is to keep running you old car rather than causing a new one to be made.”

      Exactly.

      1. Wil Pretty
        January 30, 2021

        A diesel has a life of 200000 miles.
        An electric 80000.
        Diesel is 2.5 times as efficient in resource use.

    3. Nig l
      January 30, 2021

      Indeed at the moment.

      However as we see with the Covid vaccine when there is an imperative industry steps up and I have no doubt that is what will happen with batteries. Indeed the scale of research and progress to date is breathtaking.

      Who would have thought not that long ago that renewables would overtake fossil fuel generation but that is what has just happened.

      Everyone blames governments, but major investment managers like Blackstone are also demanding green improvements in return for their support in response to shareholders who are increasingly seeking greener investments. There is also pressure on banks not to support fossil fuel economies.

      China has mad a net zero commitment, it is up to our government/the US to pressure the recidivists and leveraging our overseas aid budget springs to mind.

      1. Martyn G
        January 30, 2021

        “Who would have thought not that long ago that renewables would overtake fossil fuel generation but that is what has just happened”.
        Clearly you cannot be referring the UK? As at time of typing this, meeting the energy demand:
        CCGT is providing 33.04%,
        Nuclear 15.44%, biomass (mainly wood shipped from the USA in diesel freighters) 3.2%
        Wind 30.71%
        Solar 2.62%
        This does not, of course, include is the power we use to keep the lights that we pull through the interconnectors from Europe. And bear in mind that Solar produces nothing useable between sundown and sunup daily, admittedly much better in long Summer days but then it’s not Summer yet.

        1. Ian Wragg
          January 30, 2021

          Stop confusing them with facts, people like Andy can’t differentiate between megawatt and megawatt hour or despatchable load.
          The grid is powered by fairy dust.

    4. alan jutson
      January 30, 2021

      +1

    5. None of the Above
      January 30, 2021

      My thoughts exactly.
      My turbo diesel engined car is 10 years old and has some 121000 miles on the clock and has been serviced regularly. It runs very smoothly, quietly and cleanly, almost like new in fact.
      We will not be replacing it as I feel sure that fuel will be available for many years to come.
      This policy will crash the economy and many peoples finances. It would make more sense if it were designed to promote hybrid cars only for the foreseeable future and over a longer timetable. The smaller negative economical impact would allow more funding for battery research.

  7. Mark B
    January 30, 2021

    Good morning.

    It is clear that the policy is not thought through and those who are pushing this from a political and activist point of view are not the ones who will suffer from it. Tyranny of the well connected minority.

    As for why the car industry seems less concerned by government policy towards petrol and diesel engines, well one has to realise that we are seeing this in a rather parochial way. The governments of the West may be pursuing this but, elsewhere they are not. Markets in India and China will continue to grow so profits for car makers will still be there.

    Western politicians have decided to de-industrialise their nations. What deeply concerns me is that they have no mandate to do so. No one voted to be made unemployed the same as no one voted to be taxed to the eyeballs or locked in their home and prevented a normal life. Makes you wonder where are our Human Rights ?

    1. Fred H
      January 30, 2021

      I would suggest Trump only got elected BECAUSE he set out his case for keeping jobs in USA, not losing them! Conservatives need to reflect on where their policies and indecision is leading ie. out of office!

  8. agricola
    January 30, 2021

    I am not too fussed about what remainers think, but I am concerned about the ignorance of engineering and science in government that has led to the confused thinking that drips from their lips.
    I too have a diesel engined vehicle, one of the best vehicles designed for a specific segment of the market I have ever owned. A very large number are to be seen in Spain perhaps more than any other model ,so I am not alone in my praise. Spain is a significant export market so I would expect its popularity to extend across Europe. It is made in the UK.
    For the future I would want to know what the thinking is in EU governance on diesel vehicles. Is it as muddled and ignorant as that in the UK. Does the diesel vehicle have a sensible future there.
    As with Covid vaccine the future will be with the scientists and engineers. Politicians will mouth of as usual but what they can do will be governed by those that know in the USA, Europe, and Japan. Those in S Korea and China will no doubt copy it in a catch up game.
    So for politicians in the UK who really want to know I would advise visiting the engine makers first in the UK and then in Japan by invitation. The latter is most important in Japanese culture. Also talk to Mr Musk in the USA. Then when you have a clear picture as to the real possibilities technically, you can put the screws on your own government, the lobby fodder that will do anything to gain position, and more satisfactorily the green lobby whose noise exceeds their knowledge. Current government thinking is like modern warfare with bows and arrows.

    1. Sir Joe Soap
      January 30, 2021

      This is indeed a lesson to all those politicians here and in the EU, very few of whom have any science or engineering background. Learn some before you spout off. If we can garner our commercial and science capabilities a la Kate Bingham & Co., we can run rings arounf the EU technocrats every time. Our problem comes with airy fairy Libdem and Establishment types without a numerate brain.

  9. turboterrier
    January 30, 2021

    Sir John
    It is not just in the manufacturing sector will there big job losses but in the fuel, lubricant manufacture, distribution and retail sectors. The service sector in car maintenance and components which will affect motor factors, technicians and mechanics. It is possible in the long term to have an adverse effect on the vehicle dismantling and scrap/recycling industry. The disposal of aÄș these renewable energy components has still not been fully addressed.

    1. steve
      January 30, 2021

      turboterrier

      +1

      In fact it will affect every aspect of life and the economy. Millions of people won’t be able to get to work because the cost of a car with even half decent batteries will make it unviable. Actually I don’t see there being a supply of second hand vehicles – when they’re ready to sell down it’s because the batteries are dead. And if batteries became cheap enough then no one would sell anyway, they’d just change the batteries.

      It’s madness, utter Boris bike riding virtue signalling madness.

      1. Nig l
        January 30, 2021

        It isn’t virtue signalling, it is the reality across the world and to say that people won’t be able to do something when you cannot see into the future is ludicrous.

        1. Ian Wragg
          January 30, 2021

          Battery cars will be a footnote in history. Hydrogen is limitless and if excess nuclear and wind is used to electrolyse it, it is 100% free of pollutant.

    2. jerry
      January 30, 2021

      @turboterrier; Out of your list only petrol and diesel fuel sales will be affected, EVs will still need all the others, and indeed the professional service sector will likely see an increase as many owners who currently repair their own cars will likely not do so when faced with the high voltages found on EVs.

      1. Alan Jutson
        January 30, 2021

        jerry
        what you say is true, but hybrids also use petrol and diesel, and when petrol and diesel stations close through lack of business (as gradually and eventually they will) that only leaves one alternative for power which is battery/electric
        In the meantime as more go to electric, fuel stations will start to close leaving fewer of them around, way, way before 2030, so the option of keeping a petrol or diesel engined, or even a hybrid car becomes more of a problem as you will need to search further afield to fill up.
        Likewise as the years progress (even short term) the value of anything which has Petrol or Diesel as part of a power source will devalue faster than it has in the past.
        Who would purchase a new conventionally powered car in 2025.
        The Government is going too fast in its so called green drive, and is getting ahead of sensible technology.

      2. turboterrier
        January 30, 2021

        Jerry
        How much revenue do the small one man auto repair workshops bring to the motor trade? Every village, town and city have them and they all have to be supplied with parts. It is they I would suggest keep the older cars on the road and make owning one affordable for the poorer sectors of society. Manufacturers of fuel tanker bodies and their servicing and maintenance operations. It will all impact on the automotive industry. As already stated the second hand market will suffer and the Boycee type on the corner plot will vanish. All directly or indirectly employ people even down to the sandwich bar just along the road. It is those small knock on’s that all add up to large sums of money being generated and recirculating in the communities.
        There is a lot of truth in the saying ” big fleas need little fleas”

        1. jerry
          January 30, 2021

          @turboterrier; Well yes if the govt allows the manufactures and their dealers to crate a monopoly of repair, by restricting access to the technical knowledge needed to diagnose and repair, then I accept at least some of the scenario you paint with regards the smaller independent garages. As for diminishing petrol and diesel fuel supplies, I actually see that as being a bonus for the smaller garages who either still have active fuel sales or have mothballed their tanks, in the same (but smaller) way one can still obtain leaded petrol for vehicles that must use it. Not sure why you bring fuel tanker bodies into the argument, surely such engineering shops will simply carry on building other types of tanks or diversify, just as steam boiler makers did.

          1. turboterrier
            January 31, 2021

            Jerry
            If you don’t have petrol and diesel on the forecourts yet another part of the industry to be hit will be fuel transportation. No need to build tanker trailers, servicing of them and their tractor units all employ people from the fabricators to the drivers. When you instigate great changes in whatever field you should always look at cause and effect modelling.

  10. Lifelogic
    January 30, 2021

    Britain can’t spend way to prosperity after Covid, Kwasi Kwarteng warns. Business Secretary signals squeeze on public spending is coming with Government deficit forecast to exceed ÂŁ400bn this month. In the telegraph today.

    Indeed certainly not when the government spends as inefficiently and incompetently. as this one. We can however get out of it easily by cutting red tape, cutting government massively, getting more fair competition into healthcare, education, housing and broadcasting, cutting and simplifying taxes and cutting the mad expensive energy and electric car agenda. The latter lunacy being led by one Kwasi Kwarteng who, despite being generally a good chap, know almost nothing at all about energy engineering, energy economics or climate realism.

    1. Mike Wilson
      January 30, 2021

      Seriously, why don’t you write to Kwarteng and put him right. You never know, he might learn something and start talking sense.

      You might want to add something about government spending to the effect that it has already been proved that the government can create money out of thin air and buy its own debt without causing inflation. It is called QE.

  11. GilesB
    January 30, 2021

    It is the act of a totalitarian power to ban what it does not like – leading to a costly disruption.

    A libertarian power would support the development of a better alternative and let consumer choice rule – leading to a smooth switchover without scrapping productive assets.

    A conservative power should be finding a middle way. Support the development of better alternatives and infrastructure. Introduce a scrappage scheme for vehicles over say fifteen years old. Encourage, and accelerate, the switchover. But ban? Never.

    1. Mike Wilson
      January 30, 2021

      It is the act of a totalitarian power to ban what it does not like

      Sorry, but that is nonsense. Our government bans murder, driving above certain speeds, discrimination – thousands of things, in fact. Banning something that causes air pollution and deaths in urban areas seems like common sense to me.

      That said, hybrid vehicles and a 20 mph limit in urban areas would solve that problem.

  12. Everhopeful
    January 30, 2021

    Does Boris Johnson realise how bl**dy stupid he looks in his attempts at CCP style propaganda?
    All done up in medical gear. Holding test tubes.
    The Great Leader in whom all knowledge resides?
    What a twerp!

    1. Fred H
      January 30, 2021

      He’ll have flunkies taking notes of his comments next, as if they are the pronouncements from God.

  13. steve
    January 30, 2021

    Well written article as always Mr Redwood.

    Of course you are entirely correct in your predictions of job losses etc.

    When you say the batteries of EV’s account for a third of the vehicle value, I think it’s more than that.

    The vast majority of cars on the road are not new, in fact most are five years old and more.

    Therefore, in the Remain / Green / Virtue Signallers world, there will be no supply of viable second hand vehicles due to the fact that when they’re ready to be sold down, they’ll be practically useless because of knackered batteries.

    Arguments about cost, range, charging times etc aside, government needs to get it into their thick heads that we will not accept these stupid rubbish contraptions, nor do we accept the climate change scam – if there was any truth in it then take the argument to China, not us.

    As for the idea that battery technology could be developed to compete with the internal combustion engine – forget it. Laws of physics say so.

    Petrol and diesel engine ban is an election loser – fact.

    1. Jim Whitehead
      January 30, 2021

      Trenchant and accurate, thank you, Steve.

  14. oldtimer
    January 30, 2021

    The plan to ban petrol and diesel fuelled cars will destroy much of the UK auto industry. It is based on misguided thinking, ignores the progress made to improve fuel economy and to reduce emissions. BEVs will be very expensive. People will be denied, by the sheer costs involved, the freedom of movement afforded by the private car. My suspicion is that is what the authors of this policy want. Indeed it lies at the root of environmental campaigns. Everyone is to be levelled down – not up as so misleadingly claimed by Johnson.

    Volvo has pointed out that it’s Polestar BEV produces more CO2 over its life cycle than a petrol or diesel engine! Clueless politicians screwed it up when they originally incentivised diesels; now they are screwing it up again with the mad rush to incentivise BEVs.

    As for the EU, JLR’s CFO is on record (in a bondholders’ briefing) that the company was neutral about the outcome of the UK/EU negotiations. Currency movements would offset the tariff impact if it came.

    Battery technology is improving – it needs to. The current gel based lithium ion battery is inefficient, slow to charge and has been shown to be a fire hazard. Solid state technology holds more promise and looks set to work on small/micro batteries. We have yet to hear the results of the various Faraday research programmes into batteries for automotive use. I would expect this to be revealed later this year.

    1. Martyn G
      January 30, 2021

      I agree, a better battery solution will in time become possible but we must not forget that our National Grid has come close to imposing power cuts at this time of year, when solar provision is pretty much useless for several months annually, wind cannot always be relied on (not enough or too much) and we routinely rely on pulling power from Europe – France in particular nuclear sourced – to keep the grid working. How then, shall we be able to charge hundreds of thousands BEV? Incidentally, I have seen that because of our reliance on the interconnectors, we had to agree to a transition period of letting our fish be caught by EU boats.
      As BEV numbers increase and government sees steady fall in road tax, fuel and VAT, how long will it be before BEV also have to be taxed and probably heavily so. I ran a diesel car way back when diesel fuel was 18-20p a gallon cheaper than petrol. Diesel cars were relatively rare then but I reckoned that as diesel car numbers increased, so too would the price of diesel. And so it did and still does.
      I suspect that when BEV numbers reach a critical percentage of vehicles on the road, they will have to be heavily taxed to make up the shortfall in government income from tax losses arising from a reduction in the number of petrol and diesel vehicles and, especially, fuel taxes.

  15. DOM
    January 30, 2021

    This rush to replace ICE with non-ICE appears organised across nations which suggests an element of international coordination. It is happening with enthusiastic rapidity in the US especially with GM who have committed to stopping the production of all ICE vehicles by 2035 though of course GM is now run by the US State, the Democrat party and their street activist union the UAW so in that sense its a company with a political mission rather than one focused on pure commerce

    Who is the coordinating agent for this movement to non-ICE vehicles? The UN? The US? The EU? It certainly isn’t the UK and I have no doubt it’s not a plan borne from the porous mind of Johnson

    The point I am making is that this decision to destroy an entire industry is being driven not from London but from outside the UK and that should concern everyone for it is again more evidence of globalist grip over UK policy matters

    If we are expecting Tory MPs to oppose this destructive and idiotic policy then forget it. Even Mr Redwood is congratulating his own idiotic government for destroying lives, jobs and entire industries.

    What goes on inside the head of a Tory MP when they see their own embrace a politics that is so at odds with British culture? I believe all MPs will sell their soul to the devil to maintain their position

    Reply I do not congratulate the government in the way alleged. I am after a change of policy.

    1. Wil Pretty
      January 30, 2021

      I blame the UN.
      They failed in their role as international peacekeepers and have repurposed themselves as guardians of the planet.
      They have achieved this by re-purposing the quasi religious movement of well intentioned idealists. (In my youth this was ‘ban the bomb’, or make love not war ).
      Climate is an ideal crusade, our knowledge of the way it works is rudimentary and so any claims cannot be refuted. We will see them at Glasgow later this year.
      Political parties are unable to deny these movements as they represent a sector of their electorate and have the time and energy to make life difficult for them should they be thwarted in their objectives.

    2. Christine
      January 30, 2021

      +1 well said.

    3. a-tracy
      January 30, 2021

      Why don’t they just come clean Dom? Anyone that believes this is just being led by the Greta T group are crazy. Surely the developing world should be their target first to get new developments to working effectively on future power and then the rest would follow because the costs would be greatly reduced by a developing power like the Chinese.

      Get more people working from home ✅ lots aren’t going to want to go back into the office ever.
      Reduce incidental travel ✅ Encourage more social isolation – there have been plenty of films alluding to this.
      Reduce foreign travel ✅ Only the wealthy get to see the rest of the World.
      Reduce reliance on OPEC ✅ then the oil poor nations will even up benefits.

    4. No Longer Anonymous
      January 30, 2021

      I’d go for it were it not so self-sacrificially futile. Not while China and India will be destroying the planet.

      1. MiC
        January 30, 2021

        So China and India are “destroying” the planet by pumping out what you anti-ICCCers claim to be harmless – nay, beneficial – “plant food” then?

        How, exactly?

    5. Mark B
      January 31, 2021

      Agreed. I think it is the UN with political, industrial and other lobbies pressuring and funding oiling the wheels.

  16. Bryan Harris
    January 30, 2021

    Even now, expecting remainers to be honest or logical is akin to blowing in the wind.

    They used every dirty trick they could come up with, a large degree of deceit, and most often just outright lies, so we should not expect them to change their spots – Their targets may change but their spots will stay.

    The government is totally wrong to destroy these existing industries for the benefit of a very green fairy tale.

    1. Jim Whitehead
      January 30, 2021

      +1

  17. ukretired123
    January 30, 2021

    As the EU bet the pharm on French Sanofi which turned out to be a dud then panicked to bully Boris to get the British Oxford AZ one there is a lesson to be learnt in rushing to green tech still unproven to be sustainable.

  18. ukretired123
    January 30, 2021

    Learned

  19. DOM
    January 30, 2021

    ‘I wish the government and industry success.’ And then in the following paragraph, ‘All we can be sure about is there will be many closures and job losses in diesel and petrol car and component manufacture’

    Speechless.

    No wonder we’re flummoxed by those who now populate Parliament. They live according to values and a culture that is completely at odds with the normal world.

    I despise the Tories, Marxist Labour and the SNP simply because they’ve rejected individualism, morality and freedom and embraced Marxism and the most extreme form of societal reconstruction using gender and racial identity as a political weapon against the majority population.

    And now we have a direct political attack on our economic and social world and our freedom to exist without constant interference from the State

    GET OUT OF OUR LIVES for you are causing generational resentment

    1. Jim Whitehead
      January 30, 2021

      +1
      Each week now seems to validate your opinions more and I expect even further confirmation as the ‘bad actors’ become emboldened by their easy and early successes.

    2. Mark B
      January 31, 2021

      My first post on this blog said much the same. I wish those in power would say and do little as by not doing so they cause more harm than good.

  20. Roger W Carradice
    January 30, 2021

    Sir John
    I look forward to meeting someone who actually wants an electric car.
    Roger

    1. Ian Wragg
      January 30, 2021

      My neighbour has just bought one.
      When its damp he’s been getting a mild shock when connecting to the charger. He bought a rubber mat to stand on but with the recent wet weather even that doesn’t insulate.

  21. Mike Wilson
    January 30, 2021

    @DOM

    What goes on in Tory MPs’ heads is the sure and certain knowledge that they are in a safe seat so they don’t give a toss what voters think about anything.

    1. Fred.H
      January 30, 2021

      Not so, about 170 Conservative seats were obtained with very marginal swing. 70 seats under 5%. Another 100 with between 5% and 15%.
      Given recent disaffection I would have thought most ought to feel very twitchy, and are updating their CVs.

    2. Ian Wragg
      January 30, 2021

      I think in 4 years time when fuel in America is at Europe prices and people grasp that it is Kamala Harris,s agenda, I think the Democrats will be toast for a generation

  22. Richard1
    January 30, 2021

    Environmental leftists do not like and will not respond to questions like this. They rather focus on vague virtue signalling headlines – ‘we are saving the planet’ etc. They do not respond to challenges such as how we will generate 3-5x the electricity we have now if we want to electrify homes industry and transport without using fossil fuels unless there is eg a massive increase in nuclear. It is important that those few MPs who are prepared to keep asking specific questions as to how these green policies will be implemented and what the cost will be.

  23. Sea_Warrior
    January 30, 2021

    This Green nonsense is the reason I’ll be either spoiling my ballot or voting for a non-Conservative at the local elections. Your party, Sir John, is in the grip of Climate Change extremists – and none of them care how much damage they are doing to our economy.
    P.S. Isn’t the answer to the battery problem Graphene batteries?

    1. glen cullen
      January 30, 2021

      I am with you with regard to future voting intentions

      Ps. Graphene developed and funded by UK taxpayer given to the world freely by Manchester University and now patents by USA and China….well done Britain

    2. Christine
      January 31, 2021

      We the voters must get behind Reform UK. Look at the impact we had on Brexit by voting for The Brexit Party in the European elections. I doubt we would ever have left had it not been for the huge Conservative loss in this election. We didn’t vote for all these job losing green policies and we need to make our voices heard in the May elections if they go ahead. It’s the only thing that the Tories listen to.

  24. Mike Wilson
    January 30, 2021

    On the whole I am in favour of phasing out burning oil (based products) to power cars (and create electricity and heat our homes). Extracting and refining and burning oil is a filthy business.

    Having a date to end production of the ICE is sensible – to drive innovation. Which is what is happening now.

    Clearly the sensible thing to do in the meantime is to run your car for as long as possible and then buy a hybrid. If this means the end of the insane ‘lease a new car every two years’ mentality- and the shrinkage of the car industry- well that is unfortunate. But you can’t buck the market.

    1. Alan Jutson
      January 30, 2021

      Mike

      Hybrids require petrol or diesel to fuel them, because most of them have a range of only 30 miles (if you are lucky) from battery power alone

      1. Ian Wragg
        January 30, 2021

        If you only do short distances in them the battery which starts the engine dies.
        Our local AA man says it’s one of biggest callout reasons for hybrids.
        You have to do at least one 30 plus miles weekly to charge the battery.

        1. Original Richard
          January 31, 2021

          I don’t understand why self charging hybrids do not come with a home charger.

  25. Richard
    January 30, 2021

    Off topic, the nonsense assertions of president Macron on the U.K.-Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine are far worse and far more damaging than anything President Trump ever said. And the EU’s now aborted plan for a blockade on the Irish border was an outrageous act of aggression. Can there be anyone left among those of us who were floating voters in the referendum who is not relieved that we are no longer heading into political union with the EU?

  26. glen cullen
    January 30, 2021

    When I read about government policy on electric vehicles I see social engineering

    Social engineering is a thing of communist states, democracies allow market force and the buying power of the consumers to dictate the shape of its country

    1. DaveK
      January 30, 2021

      You only have to research the UN IPCC and the Paris Accord to realise the plan.

  27. a-tracy
    January 30, 2021

    It will be industry vans (repair people, installations, urgent goods) and commercial travellers (sales people, demonstrators) that have the problem due to work miles travelled. The average working person works within 20 miles of their home base and could manage with a smaller battery powered vehicle if they can re-power in the street.

    I wonder why the world government doesn’t ask for a standard battery cartridge that can be replaced/swapped out easily. Instead each manufacturer will go off making their own unique system and only the wealthy with garages or personal recharging points will benefit (maybe that is the point get the plebs back on public transport at the whim of the local labour unions).

    1. Alan Jutson
      January 30, 2021

      a-tracy

      Battery swop or exchange will not work, just think of human nature

      Having purchased a brand new electric car would you then be willing to swap a brand new battery for the chance of a clapped out one that has little range left in it even when its fully charged.

      Who replaces the old dud batteries, that no longer hold a charge for any length of time.?

      1. a-tracy
        January 31, 2021

        Yes, if you can’t just rent the batteries then it will be a problem.

      2. Original Richard
        January 31, 2021

        Alan Jutson, I think a-tracy’s idea of a standard battery cartridge is a very good idea.

        Not to use as a quick replacement when a battery needs charging – as you correctly say, who would want to swap a brand new battery for an old clapped out one, – but to enable car owners to upgrade their battery packs in their existing cars as and when new battery technology produces better batteries.

        It is ridiculous to be buying a brand new car each time better batteries become available.

  28. bigneil(newercomp)
    January 30, 2021

    No comment on the antics of all those wonderful multiculture and diversity bringing Scientists, Brain surgeons and 3000 IQ imports setting fire to the barracks? They only want asylum and a safe place?? – Now we see their real sides. I suppose they’ll be happy once they all have a 5 bedroomed detached property ( fully furnished of course ) along with a brand new BMW on the drive – all on the taxpayer.

    Is the govt going to issue an apology to all those people who warned you repeatedly that this was going to happen – the people who you all took on a campaign against and labelled us as racists? I won’t hold my breath. Etc ed

  29. Christine
    January 30, 2021

    The Remainers now Rejoiners are full of negativity. Have you noticed how this group cannot bring themselves to criticise the EU, want more and stronger lockdowns, hate Donald Trump, and believe all the climate change spin? It’s as if they have been conditioned to believe what they hear in the media and cannot think for themselves. It cannot be a coincidence that they have groupthink.

    We all know from having phones and laptops that batteries do not last. These people seem blind to the environmental cost of producing and disposing of batteries.

    I’m all for cleaning up the oceans and investing in the search for a viable cleaner energy but the current aim of net-zero by 2030 with today’s technology just isn’t feasible.

    John, we are relying on you to try to change the course of the misguided policy that no-one in this country voted for. Boris has been converted to this negative religion. He must be stopped before his policies destroy us all. I see a future where only the rich have cars and the rest of us are rationed and controlled. The current lockdown is only a warm-up act.

    From your post, it appears you are stepping back from the fight. Surely you cannot condone what the Government is planning for the unsuspecting people of this country? Their ideas and plans must be scrutinised, costed and debated. We are becoming a dictatorship with no viable opposition party.

  30. acorn
    January 30, 2021

    The UK has got till 2027 to get the domestic value added in its vehicle production above 55% to avoid “rules of origin” tariffs on its exports; and, not just to the EU but the rest of the WTO.

    Nissan built its own 2GW battery factory in the UK to supply its Leaf model. Then sold the battery factory to the Chinese! Britishvolt is supposedly going to build a 12 GW-ish battery factory at Blyth. If you work on 60-70 kW chassis floor mounted battery pack, that would be enough for circa 230,000 battery powered cars. About a fifth of normal UK car production of all propulsion types.

  31. Nig l
    January 30, 2021

    And in the meantime it took the EU just 29 days to trigger a punishment clause in the shoddy Brexit deal as it relates to Northern Ireland.

    The fact it was reversed after a political outcry is irrelevant. Your government shouldn’t have exposed us to it in the first place.

    You now have both reason and political cover to sort it out. What are you going to do about it? Evidence to date points at zero.

    And what odds an announcement soon, we will be giving the EU some of our vaccines whilst we are waiting for our second doses spun no doubt on the fact that us waiting a bit longer is no risk and the need cooperation with our EU friends. They have given us no cooperation, indeed the opposite, and should be given nothing until all our needs, including the follow up dose, are met.

  32. villaking
    January 30, 2021

    Trying to suggest that remain supporters are the ones wanting to ban petrol and diesel is demonstrably false. This is a Leave government and it is a Leave PM who is setting these questionable goals

  33. Edwardm
    January 30, 2021

    First of all, an honest open independent commission needs to examine the claims for CO2 causing global warming. The only “evidence” offered so far is from computer programs which contain assumptions on CO2 sensitivity. Alter the assumptions and you get different results. All comparative evidence from the real world does not support the CO2 claims.
    I realize undoing the successful left wing/green propaganda is a herculean task. But it must be done before we can return to a sensible energy strategy for cars and everything else.
    How the car industry moves forward is anyone’s guess – very difficult to plan when faced with irrational fads causing rapid change in consumer demand. The national electricity supply could be a limiting factor.
    O/T I wish Boris would stop calling the EU bullies “our friends”, it’s too self-deprecating.

  34. Geoff not Hoon
    January 30, 2021

    Sir John,
    Clearly much needs to be done in the UK car industry much of it nothing to do with brexit.
    Regardless, how nice to see JLR back into the black for the 3months to December with a profit of ÂŁ439million.

  35. Fedupsoutherner
    January 30, 2021

    I was only saying the same this morning. They will try anything to stop us becoming a more successful nation.

  36. Stephen Reay
    January 30, 2021

    My present understanding is that the ban will only cover cars and not all vehicles for the time being. In terms of building an electric car rather than a fuel driven vehicle , its far more easier. If you don’t make the battery, you buy it in, same as the electric motor .

    Nissan had its own battery plant on site only to sell it to the Chinese who sold it within a couple of years with jobs loses to previous Nissan workers.

    The problem will be when to come to part ex it, if you keep the car for 10 years or more then the battery life span has very few years left, the car will be near worthless as a part exchange. The dealer will probably make money from selling the battery on to be refurbed or reused as solar storage.

  37. Dave Andrews
    January 30, 2021

    If people are going to be forced out of their petrol and diesel cars, they would be better forced onto bicycles rather than electric vehicles.
    The excess lard of someone overweight by about 2 stone has equal energy storage capacity as the battery of an average electric vehicle. No mining of conflict materials required, just an ample supply of burgers and chips.

  38. Julian Flood
    January 30, 2021

    Compressed natural gas is a low CO2, zero particulate fuel admirably suited to large vehicles. We even have lots of NG of our own. Diesel with Ad Blue is clean, low emissions. Converting to EVs would overload the electricity Grid and add to the difficulty of supplying power only from intermittent ‘renewables’.
    Phil Connors gives his take on the future when he is at his lowest ebb. “It’s going to cold, it’s going to be dark and it will last for the rest of your lives.”

    Will no-one start a series of remedial physics lessons for MPs? They certainly need a dose of reality.

    JF

    1. Fishknife
      February 1, 2021

      There are a lot of moving parts in this equation, many of them conflicting and beyond our control.
      The alternative to Plan A: to invent a cheap, light weight, quickly rechargeable battery using “common” materials has to be
      Plan B: to develop a carbon neutral alternative to fossil fuels for the ICE.
      Legislation needs to make that a possible alternative.

  39. Original Richard
    January 30, 2021

    Nig1 : “Who would have thought not that long ago that renewables would overtake fossil fuel generation but that is what has just happened.”

    According to the National Grid the percentage of electricity generated last year by renewables was 27% whilst from fossil fuels it is 40%.

    Furthermore, since the consumption of electricty is just 20% of the UK’s total energy consumption renewables last year only provided just over 5% of our total energy requirement.

    1. Fred.H
      January 30, 2021

      Spoiling a good story, eh?

  40. Denis Cooper
    January 30, 2021

    More or less on this specific topic, why is it so often emphasised that about 80% of the cars built in the UK are exported – mostly to non-EU destinations, in fact – but it is very rarely pointed out by the government or by anybody else that more than 80% of the new cars sold in the UK are imported? Plenty of scope there for import substitution; it would only have needed companies to adjust their business models.

    And only slightly removed from that question, is it for the same reason that DEFRA does not point out that we import more pork meat from the EU than we export to them, and even if some pig farmers are having their exports obstructed by the EU 100,000 pigs is not a lot in our national context, and it would only need each pork eating person in the UK to eat the equivalent of one extra pork chop on average?

    https://www.ft.com/content/be929057-2bbf-4cfc-9106-11665b180824

    “More than 100,000 British pigs stranded by Brexit border problems”

    100,000 times 50kg per pig divided by 100g divided by 50,000,000 people = 1 chop per person

    https://britishmeatindustry.org/industry/imports-exports/pigmeat/

    “The UK is a net importer of pig meat, currently importing around 60 per cent of all the pork it consumes. The volume of these imports stood at 968,000 tonnes in 2015 …. The EU supplies virtually all the pork imported into the UK, due to the high import tariffs on pork from elsewhere … On top of this, the UK imports substantial quantities of bacon, gammon, ham, sausages and other processed pig meat products.”

    In comparison the surplus 100,000 pigs might yield about 5,000 tonnes of pig meat.

    1. Fred.H
      January 30, 2021

      Perhaps you are telling porkies.

  41. Original Richard
    January 30, 2021

    According to Michael Kelly, Emeritus Prince Philip Professor of Technology at the University of Cambridge, fellow of the Royal Society and the Royal Academy of Engineering, replacing the UK vehicle fleet with EVs will require between half to twice the world’s annual production of cobalt, lithium carbonate, neodymium and copper, all elements and chemicals currently essential for the production of EVs.

    And this is before even considering the costs of producing and distributing the vast increase of electricity which will be required.

    [Google “Electrifying the UK and the Want of Engineering”].

    It’s not going to happen.

  42. London Nick
    January 30, 2021

    I wanted a WTO Brexit as th tariffs on our anufactured goods exports would have been less than the fall in the value of the pound since the referendum, making our exports just as competitive as they were before, but the correspondinng tariffs on imports from the EU would have been much less competitive here. That, of course, is why the EU was desperate for a deal – which they got – and why Boris was so stupid to give it to them without first getting a deal on services, secondly getting rid of the Irish Sea border, and thirdly getting control of our fishing. The EU won the negotiations hands down. Boris is clearly an imbecile.

    As to car electrification, here again the EU are winning hands down. The EU has 16 gigafactories either already under construction or planned to be built in the next decade. The UK … err, one, maybe. BritishVolt is planning to build a gigafactiry in Northumberland, but need to raise the money. Why on earth isn’t the government pouring money in??? Another Boris failure. BritishVolt are in a race against time. Un;ess they raise all the money and get started on construction right away they will miss their deadline to start manufacturing in 2023 – and if that happens then car makers will be forced to secure long-term contracts with EU battery factories in order to meet the ‘local content’ requirement of the UK-EU TCA. So BritishVolt will be screwed.

    But even that will not be enough. The Faraday Institution has stated the UK needs TWO gigafactories by 2025, and EIGHT by 2040. Andy Street has been begging the government for one in his area, the West Midlands, and that would make sense. I expect the government will offer some waffling warm words in time for his relection in May, but words are not enough. They mean nothing if there isn’t a real manufacturer ready to put a shovel in the ground and get started RIGHT AWAY. And the government has done NOTHING to achieve this.

    I could go on, but Sir JR has asked for comments to be kept short. The truth, of course, is that the target fr electric cars is a political one which makes ZERO sense in the real world, since current Li-Ion batteries are terrible for powering cars. There is plenty of excellent reaearch into much better alternatives – such as solid state batteries, for instance – but this will not be ready in time to meet Boris’s idiotic 2030 target. But then, intelligence and Boris Johnson really don’t go together, do they?

  43. Denis Cooper
    January 30, 2021

    Two somewhat off-topic but linked news items that have come my way.

    https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/meps-warn-uks-diplomatic-downgrade-will-hurt-relations-40024458.html

    “Members of the European Parliament have warned that a diplomatic spat with London could weigh on their decision to approve the EU-UK trade deal.”

    https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-trade-cptpp-exclusive/exclusive-uk-will-apply-to-trans-pacific-trade-bloc-before-publishing-economic-impact-officials-idUSKBN29X1ND

    “Britain will submit a request to join a trans-Pacific trading bloc grouping 11 countries before it has published an assessment of the benefits of membership, British officials told Reuters.”

    Why do I think the two are linked? Because I put in a Freedom of Information Request about any assessment of the benefits to the UK of a “Canada style” free trade deal with the EU and officials in three departments – trade, business, Treasury – were adamant that they knew nothing about any such assessment, but my own estimate was that benefit would be marginal, worth maybe 0% – 2% of GDP, and it was a bad move for our government to turn itself into a supplicant begging for a free trade deal, and really it would not matter too much if the EU Parliament did refuse to ratify it because we still refused to aid and abet the EU Commission in breaking EU law by treating its envoy as the ambassador of a country.

  44. David Brown
    January 30, 2021

    Sir JR, I will always disagree with you about the EU, primarily because BREXIT has limited the time we can spend in the EU countries and we can no access to health care in EU countries. I am a strong advocate of open borders and would have liked to see free access continue, I hope this will return in future years. I and my partner want to mix work with travel for 6 to 8 months each year, or buy at holiday home in the Med for the winter.
    Now in respect to car manufacturing I own a 2 year old A6 Audi Diesel car and will probably keep it another year. The big issue I have is the cross over to electric cars, technology appears to be constantly improving fossil fuels with less CO2 emissions and I hope this will continue. There are many companies now moving to all electric buses, vans, company cars etc, however if we can focus on even cleaner Diesel the problem of pollutants becomes very much less of an issue.
    If science can find a solution for Covid within a year, then I’m sure science can find solutions for even cleaner Diesel.

    1. a-tracy
      January 31, 2021

      David Brown, I thought we now have a Global Health card that replaces the EU Health card and you can still obtain healthcare in the EU, it is all rebilled back to the UK anyway, check out Spain’s charges to the UK for UK citizens living in Spain.

      I have always supported free movement too, just not free benefit claims and queue jumping on housing lists that was going on a lot watch ‘Benefits Britain’ and ‘Can’t Pay We’ll Take It Away’ to see how people jumped up the housing register of need based allocation and how they used British child benefits, child tax credits, working tax credits for children not even living in the UK to get a financial advantage to their family living in the EU. It was just a big slosh out of funds – the EU told Cameron we couldn’t adjust benefits and people arriving from day 1 were eligible.

  45. jon livesey
    January 30, 2021

    “Making an all electric battery car is a very different process from building an internal combustion engine vehicle.”

    And that’s the real point. Where do you want the UK to be in a decade’s time? Do you want us to be polishing a century old technology, or making breakthroughs in a new technology?

  46. kzb
    January 31, 2021

    I am adding my vote to the “it ain’t gonna happen” fraternity
    Our current total energy usage is 1295 TWh p.a. Of which, 88% is fossil fuels and 6% is wind and solar.
    All nuclear plants bar one are to be closed in the next few years.
    There is no way that wind and solar can be ramped up on the expected timescales. It simply won’t happen.
    Reduce our virtue-signalling fantasy plan. Plan to equal the CO2 reduction of the G20 average. Or the EU average maybe.

  47. Diane
    January 31, 2021

    Future likely levels of landfill trouble me. Also packaging and the stuff I still need to put in my general bin for non-recyclables which I do make efforts to avoid but often with limited success. I think too that our domestic tourism could reduce with much knock on effect, at least initially with the changes to electric vehicles. Many take holidays in the UK, be it short breaks or extended touring type breaks and maybe for some, several times a year, travelling the length and breadth of the country. Maybe many will think twice about that considering what that might involve.

  48. Original Richard
    January 31, 2021

    Increasing the use of EVs and increasing the production of non-fossil fuel electricity are two different goals which do not need to go hand-in-hand.

    For instance, increasing the use of EVs in towns will produce worthwhile pollution reductions in the towns even if the electricity is still produced by fossil fuel power stations located elsewhere.

    The more sensible way forward than a prohibitively expensive dash for EVs and renewables is to spend much more on R&D and to gradually phase in EVs and renewable energy production as better technology comes along at affordable prices.

    If batteries are likely to be the answer to EVs then given the short life of existing batteries it would be sensible to legislate for vehicles to be built so that new batteries using improved technology from different suppliers can be easily fitted. Just like all cars from any manufacturer are able to use standard petrol/diesel fuels.

  49. Guy Liardet
    February 2, 2021

    Two Red Wall election losers. I have to turn in my £3000 jalopy and buy a Nissan Leaf at thirty grand which depreciates linearly at £5000 a year. No way. Have the Tories confessed to banning imports of ICE cars yet? Wot’s the WTO reaction? And I can’t buy sell or mortgage my house without £60K worth of insulation. Lord Gummer must be stopped. U.K. produces just over one per cent of global CO2 remember and our virtue signalling is not noticed. Wake up.

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