The world figures show accumulated cases of 107mĀ or 1.3% of the world population with deaths at 2.365 million or 0.03%.Ā These figures are by nature of variable quality, depending on how much testing was done throughout in each country, and subject to variations in definitions. There is the perennial issue of death with covid or death definitely from covid, In some places people will have died at home and not been tested. In otherĀ cases there will be tests with false positives.Ā They are nonetheless important figures and invite come comparisons, subject to analysis of how they were collected in each country, how much reliable testing took place and how deaths were certified.
The figures show that the EuropeansĀ and Americans have suffered more than the rest of the world. The USA has had a very high caseload, at 8.4% of the population compared to the UK at 5.8%, Portugal at 7.6% and Germany at 2.75%. Belgium has had theĀ worst death rate apart from a few small countries at 0.186%, with the UK and Italy also quite high by world standards. The USA at 0.1456% shows that it has a better recovery rate from itsĀ high infectionĀ levels. India has only had a case rate of 0.78% and a death rate of 0.01%.
Case numbers have been higher in the advanced world and have been higher in winter than in summer. Clearly high levels of international travel can introduce a community to more variants and cases of the virus, and large cities like London, New York andĀ Paris see spreadĀ from more social contacts using mass transit systems and enjoyment of the social facilities of hospitality, leisure and entertainment which attract more people there. Asian countries in general have fared better that Europe or the Americas. Could there be something in the diet, or in past exposure to Asian flu types which has given Asian populationsĀ better resilience to the disease? Did they handle test and trace better than the Europeans?
It would be good to have more commentary from experts on how and why, for example,Ā Taiwan had practically no deaths fromĀ the virus and was able to get her economy back and running fully, so GDP is now higher than a year ago. Why has Germany done so much better than Italy or Spain? How does the USA manage cases of the virus to achieve a lower death rate as a proportion of cases? Is it partly that the USA tests more and so identifies more mild or otherwise invisible cases of the virus? Is it a greater range of approved medicines and treatments?
This week I was pleased to be sent an updateĀ by Ministers on all the tests underway in the UK of existing drugs and treatments. It will be good to see more results soon, as a wider range of treatment options would probably help doctors and their patients.
February 12, 2021
No one with half a brain believes the UK figures. I think we’re the only country using the 28 day and 60 day rule.
Taiwan and Asia generally are more immune to SARs type virus.
The headline figures are to justify the out of proportion rules so loved by Handcock.
It will cost you dearly when the true carnage is known.
February 12, 2021
There may be marginal variations, but the order of magnitude comparisons are all that we need for this.
It is clear that the more closely countries follow the socio-economic model evangelised by John and by the US Right the worse that they appear to have done.
National resilience against epidemics can only be organised by society itself – generally through a state. Short-term, for-profit only, socially unaccountable private sector entities cannot do this, and would not see opportunity in it anyway.
A properly functioning state with all necessary agency, staff and materiel is required.
February 12, 2021
@Ian Wtagg; “Taiwan and Asia generally are more immune to SARs type virus.”
Perhaps, but then that region suffered greatly from the 2002-4 SARS outbreak, and learnt the lessons, by comparison the UK had something like 4 deaths at the time attributed to that specific virus – so perhaps not so much immune than prepared.
I agree the true carnage from Covid, and those who failed to take on-board the lessons of the 2002-4 SARS virus, it will take time to measure such casualties (due to hospitals full with nothing other than Covid cases, to the detriment of care for cancer and other illnesses), but once they are counted, those who bleat today about the imposition of, and economic damage from, lockdowns will, I suspect, become very silent -and sidelined…
February 12, 2021
Dear Sir,
‘…a wider range of treatment options would probably help doctors and their patients.’
Well said. I really could not agree more because the SARS CoV 2 healthcare crisis is now well and truly over.
‘Patients in the trial, conducted in Britain and led by researchers from Australia, were given simple steroid inhalers* when they presented at hospital with symptoms of the disease.
QUT associate professor Dan Nicolau, one of the lead researchers on the trial at the University of Oxford, said the results showed the method was extremely effective at preventing severe COVID-19 symptoms.’
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/over-the-counter-inhalers-suppress-severe-covid-symptoms-trial-finds-20210210-p5716m.html
There is a healthcare crisis in England caused by incompetent government interventions. Euromomo z scores show that crisis only exists in England out of 27 European countries including Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
That incompetence will no doubt delay our exit from the illiberal and repressive measures this government has imposed.
I am most grateful for your continuing efforts to bring these measures to a close.
Thank you.
February 12, 2021
Rules loved by Hancock to impose on others but he doesn’t seem to follow them, he needs to wear a beeping ankle tag to let him know when he’s within 2m of someone else without a mask on.
He had to self-isolate after playing rugby in the park no masks after being told by his app he’d been within contact with someone with covid, this after having covid?
He seems to have had a meeting indoors [see Guido Fawkes Friday caption] with three other people, no screens between them two sat closer than 2m.
It seems strange to me that these people like Hancock and Starmer pictured recently in an indoor meeting with multiple unmasked people with no windows, no masks, no screens meet regularly with all the UK terrifying scientists yet aren’t capable of reguarly following the rules themselves, so why should we believe them about transmission, it seems they know something we don’t know to take these risks.
February 12, 2021
JR, latest figures (I think SAGE) show 40% of those attending hospital for different reasons caught Chinese virus!
Add the 40% total death rate was from elderly to care homes then we have a catastrophic govt health policy failing aided and abetted by the catastrophic management of the NHS! Yet govt has not censured, removed or changed in getting advice!!
February 12, 2021
Shared hospital wards do not help. The USA generally has one room per patient, and air con which can control the air pressure in the room to reduce air movement between rooms. They even have that in their equivalents of nightingale hospitals where they have put individual tents and air con units around each patient. Cross infection within hospitals is a large part of the problem in the UK.
February 12, 2021
Indeed. The only person I know who has died of Covid went into hospital with a minor stroke, was given infected in hospital and then dumped into a nursing home untested (to infect others) then returned to hospital a few days later and was then finally tested positive. He died the next day. This story perhaps explains much of the problem the state monopoly NHS is fairly appalling.
Hancock the other day said he wanted to make the NHS more responsible to ministers, who are responsible to Parliament which is the. responsible to voters! Great plan lets run Amazon.com like that? So rather than customers voting with their money every day with their purchases we pass control of it to Hancock. Everything is delivered free if Ministers and bureaucrats approves (delivery usually takes about six months one approved). Ministers are responsible to parliament with the odd debate on it for five years and then voters can evict government only every five years. Should go very well Hancock!
February 12, 2021
A bit like getting someone to drive a NHS bus using two broom handles from a passenger seat with the only control from the passenger/customers being a vote every five years for 650 MP who might change the driver once in a while if they feel like it. No wonder the NHS is so second rate. This despite the fact that many excellent people work for it! With Amazon millions of people vote with their money every day. Can we have that with healthcare please.
A further insult was that the government/NHS requisitioned many private hospitals and yet did not even use 2/3 of them!
February 13, 2021
I was watching an old “carry on” film about a hospital and observed that the beds in those shared wards in the film were a lot further apart than they are in the crammed modern NHS shared wards.
February 12, 2021
The fact that Hancock chooses to vaccinate 65 year old men later than 70 year old women (when they have the same risk) etc. is even now killing man people just because the JCVI academics could not even get their priority order right. Many lives even now could be save by changing this but they are too proud to admit their childish error.
Why on earth were Covid patients not teated in isolation hospitals or isolation areas. The whole episode show how generally second rate our NHS is. Why were Vitamin D tablet not pushed earlier?
Having said this overall excess death deaths in the UK (over the Covid period March to Now) per 100,000 people when adjusted for age profile are only slightly higher than those for the last five years and lower than most years before about 2002. Further Covid kills mainly the elderly so the quality years lost from Covid is even lower still. Under 1/1000 of the Quality years lost per 100,000 people from the Spanish Flu for example.
February 13, 2021
Bristol was very low in infection until they moved infectious cases into the Bristol Royal Infirmary from London and the South East. Now the cases and deaths are on the up and Bristol has its very own variant.
February 12, 2021
Please donāt let us admire Taiwan. ( Free masks indeed!).
That sort of nonsense has led us to this very situation of handwringing and destitution.
In a highly controlled society you can control just about everything.
We have never been like that except for maybe Cromwell..and he did not actually ban mince pies!
Boris is a dictator by definition.How utterly STUPID and bovine to expect to minutely control a virus in an otherwise ( once) free country!
Locally available, trusted healthcare, isolation facilities, flexibility in drug use, intelligence(!) and COMPASSION.
Thatās how civilised countries beat all illness.
February 12, 2021
Boris hasn’t attempted to control the virus, just the people. International travel still allowed by many groups of people. Journalists are treated like key-workers. No, they’re not.
Kick a ball around a park with a few friends, and the old bill grab your collar. Except if you’re a professional footballer and it’s fine. You can even hug your friend when one scores a goal.
February 12, 2021
on the contrary Taiwan has done a lot of things far better than we have.
it is arrogant in the extreme to not learn from the best of the rest of the world.
February 12, 2021
If the UK started doing that then it would have to revolutionise occupational pensions, education, employment law and industrial relations arrangements, and…
February 12, 2021
Taiwan had learned a lesson from a SARS epidemic and had a carefully worked out Pandemic plan for any future epidemics. It worked. Taiwan is NOT like The PRC and is little different to many countries in Asia. It is small and therefore easier to manage.
February 12, 2021
We have ālearnedā far too much from the rest of the world..including this appalling lockdown technique.
You presumably enjoy living under a dictatorship?
February 12, 2021
@Everhopeful; We have never [has a highly controlled society] that except for maybe Cromwell.”
Nonsense. The UK had a highly controlled society during WW2, even to the point of how deep our bath water could be! Granted, private car used was never actually banned, just that most couldn’t get any petrol, whilst swaths of the country was sealed off to all but the military or those who could prove good reason to be there.
February 12, 2021
Timothy Bradshaw in Con Woman writes an article Michael Gove the Brexit Betrayer. It is certainly pertinent to all JRs blogs this week. It is hard not to conclude Bradshaw is absolutely right.
The EU is punishing the U.K. ability to export while still having free unfettered access to U.K. Market. Incredulously the Tory Govt is allowing punishment in every regard when it now has the legal right to withdraw from the WA and NiP because the EU has broke the Good Friday Agreement which is an international treaty!
Guarda establishing a hard border next week with hundred euro fine for anyone travelling from N.Ireland to RoI because of Chinese virus! Another hard border which is policed!
JR, Please explain your thoughts to this article because to us normal souls your govt has failed/betrayed our country in every regard.
February 12, 2021
+1 Agreed, Boris appears to like the figure of Ā£600billion for some reason, he says that’s the trade agreed with the EU. What is being neglected is it is only what the EU send unrestricted to the UK, while they have raising the barriers on everything going the opposite way.
Everyone knows a straight forward WTO deal would have the UK’s prosperity assured. The UK is still ruled by the EU Commission, even this week they have threatened punishment if the UK doesn’t abide by their and accountable rules and laws. The UK has not become a self governing free democratic Country.
February 12, 2021
EU/UK statement both are fully committed to NIP! Gove capitulated again!
JR, please explain tarrifs on steel from GB to N.Ireland? Johnson claimed many times no tarrifs and red tape. You even claimed no tarrifs. Ian Paisely JNR MP clearly states otherwise. Who is correct?
Howmismthis wretched servitude agreement with additional punishments of WA and NIP better than WTO. You stated this was the test.
February 12, 2021
I remain concerned about the softening-up we are being subjected to for a lengthier lockdown than we were expecting – despite all the key metrics heading in the right direction. I’m also concerned that no two ministers in interviews can stick to the script on the subject of holidays. There is a script,a policy, isn’t there?
P.S. Shortly off for my COVID test. Been feeling rotten for a couple of days. NHS Direct last night was pretty good but seemed to be latched onto wanting me to have a COVID test and a telephone consult with a pharmacist rather than offering some GP action for the chickenpox or similar that my symptoms point to. (I’m a graduate of the Wiki School of Medicine.) Online, I was able to get a walk-in test appointment for first thing this morning, so that’s the most impressive thing about the experience.
February 12, 2021
Hope you are negative and get some calamine while you are out
February 13, 2021
No, govt needs holding to account. It has a free run from MSM as its largest customer for advertising and nothing from the opposition. It keeps sneaking out information hoping no one will notice.
February 12, 2021
Moreover…this is NOT an international competition!
February 12, 2021
Developing countries cannot afford expensive research into vaccines. It is being posited that their use of the low-cost self-administered drug Ivermectin (used to treat parasitic diseases such as river blindness and scabies) has contributed to their much lower death rate from Covid-19. Once again, the University of Oxford is in the vanguard:
Taken from ‘Trial Site News’ 23.January 2021.
‘Oxfordās PRINCIPLE Trial: Bringing Ivermectin Directly into the Developed World in the Battle Against COVID-19.’
‘The University of Oxford soon kicks āthe PRINCIPLE Trialā into a higher gear now, in what they consider a pathbreaking āhigh-quality trialā of Ivermectin, a generic drug already evidencing significant efficacy in over two dozen clinical trials around the world, according to some researchers. The UK government also backs this pivotal study via the Department of Health and Social Care. Searching for early-onset, home-based ambulatory treatments for COVID-19, the PRINCIPLE Trial seeks to meet a gap in research in the worldās richest nations to date. . . . .
‘The team discovered that in a lab cell culture, Ivermectin obliterates the novel coronavirus within 48 hours. . . . .
‘TrialSite commends Dr. Butler, University of Oxford, and the UK government for funding this important research endeavor. Itās the very first major clinical trial in the G8, for example, to embrace Ivermectin.’
February 12, 2021
Mr Hancock seems to be in a panic over the issue of the variants to the Covid virus which are resistant to the vaccines. Hence his ludicrous threats of ten years prison sentences for not filling in the form correctly.
We all know that viruses always mutate and that there are hundreds in different places. The South African mutant is the current scare and it has already been found in various locations in the UK. As with the hospitals being a prime source of infection and spread by staff going home and care workers going from home to home, the NHS is likely to be the prime cause of the import of the African mutant because it recruits large numbers of South African nurses and they will have come to work in the hospitals.
February 12, 2021
Gosh! Drs most upset that they wonāt get their Ā£12.85 if patient reneges on second vaccination dose.
Dedication for you! All hands to pump in crisis! No wonder weāre in state of chaos.
February 12, 2021
My Trust has now started Phase 5 and invited me for a jab yesterday evening. I declined. I admit I was not overly keen to co-operate as I’m fed up dancing to the government’s tune, but their hub was miles away with no alternative within easy distance. My little moment of awkwardness was valid, though, as I no longer drive and obviously not “permitted” to arrange a lift. If mutterings from No 10 are anything to go by, it’s not going to make a jot of difference to the quality of my life, anyway, only to the numbers (I am not a number!) so government can continue to boast. It’s strange that after weeks of administering vaccinations, often to people with mobility problems, there was only one option available, so I await their solution with interest. Perhaps I’ll be fined for “failure to comply”!
February 12, 2021
Regarding Taiwan, my understanding is it imposes strict hotel quarantine on arrivals, requires negative test results before travel to the country and on arrival. Such measures have a better chance of success in controlling the spread of the virus than the loose arrangements that have prevailed in the UK.
February 13, 2021
Australias latest little outbreak has come from just one covid quarantine hotel guest, who is said to have used a nebuliser, passed CV to a member of staff (there is a photo of one member of staff outside not wearing the masks they are instructed to wear, possibly to explain how they caught it if they were wearing a mask when passing over meals). This one person has now passed this to 15 tested + people in contact with the staff member, track and trace has revealed a potential 500 people now the whole City (just the one City mind is on a four week lockdown) and there are people moaning about a potential Ā£10,000 fine if they lie on a form – these incomers know if theyāre from a high risk Country and should be quarantined an incorrectly ticked form doesnāt let them off. We are allowing 20,000 per day into Heathrow, look at the photos it doesnāt take an expert to work out why the majority of UK citizens are still locked down quarantined in our own homes since 23rd December, bar a once per week supermarket shop or a distanced walk with your own household once per day whilst ātheyā swan around the world and are moaning about taking the conditions of entry as they would in Taiwan, Australia and NZ all those congratulated on protecting their citizens.
February 12, 2021
The way that deaths, certainly in the UK, has been recorded is wholly unreliable.
Various pathologists have written pieces on this, detailing how deaths are recorded and by whom. Itās all very hit and miss. Also, Joe Public has repeatedly complained of family members who have died of other ailments being recorded as Covid. Looking at the emergency measures in place that have overridden our usually accurate records – weāll never know for sure how many have actually died from Covid. Even the number of cases, I suspect, is wildly out, non tested people being sent positive test results.
Question is – was it deliberately a mess or was it incompetence?
February 12, 2021
The government is not competent enough to be deliberately incompetent.
February 12, 2021
+1
February 12, 2021
I think it’s a bit of everything, Sharon. There are people who wanted this to happen because they would profit from it. There are people who panicked because they feared the worst case scenario, thought they’d be blamed for not reacting firmly enough, didn’t think about the horrendous costs of lockdown, and are now trying to cover their backsides. There are people who knew they had underfunded the NHS and couldn’t afford to be accused of thousands of patients dying as a result. There are people who saw their legacy media businesses decline and jumped at the chance they now got to boost their dwindling sales, clicks, and TV audience figures. There are people who have seen themselves shoot to prominence as ‘expert advisers’ on the state payroll. Some of these people are in government, others are taking government handouts.
This is the biggest boondoggle in our history, and all at your and my expense, I’m afraid.
February 12, 2021
The ONS report on excess deaths shows in Fig 3 the number of covid deaths rising in the second and third waves after September with the non covid deaths in green actually reducing below average for the time of year, while the blue covid portion rises above average, reduces and then takes off again after Christmas and drops back to average after a few weeks. The peak is made higher because of the delay in reporting over the two weeks holiday. This happens every year, as can be seen on the dotted line. If the lower number was to be added to the holiday weeks and subtracted from the later weeks, to peak would look lower.
When many of those patients with cancer, heart, stroke and other diseases finally were coming in for treatment and then being tested positive after weeks in wards, s reduction below average deaths is not credible.
This was used to justify the third lockdown and now things are changing again because NERVTAG and the Sages are getting nervy about the South African variety being resistant. From now on it will be new vaccines every six months to control a virus which only affects the old and already ill to any significant extent. When the NHS accepts the research done in the rest of the world and we are allowed to use Ivermectin and zinc early, instead of waiting to be seriously ill, the number of unnecessary deaths will be counted.
February 12, 2021
The best way to record the likely number of ‘Covid’ deaths is to count the excess number over previous years being careful not to compare with a higher number of flu deaths as happened last year I believe. Very crudely, this would indicate around 80,000 deaths down to Covid.
All the lower death rate countries tend to be in warmer climates than ours. Presumably this means that they have better airflows through their houses and offices etc. whereas we live (with encouragement) in airtight boxes with poor ventilation. I have never liked the idea of enclosed spaces since they are excellent for infections to survive and spread. As for the drafts: wear an extra jumper.
February 12, 2021
In Week 4(week ending 29 January 2021), the number of deaths registered in England and Wales was 44.6% above the five-year average (5,688 deaths higher).
Of the deaths registered in Week 4 in England and Wales, 8,433 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”; this is the second-highest weekly number recorded during the pandemic and an increase of 11 deaths compared with Week 3. ONS
February 12, 2021
Good morning.
0.03% Of deaths.
Without wishing to sound flippand and uncaring, that is a very small figure when one compares it to past MAJOR pandemics.
The Black Death killed 1 in 4 people in the UK. Or to put it another way, 25%.
The Spanish Flu killed, in the world population, some 2.7%.
In neither of these cases did governments decide to do that which has happened. This has been a monumental failure of both strategy and policy causing a great deal of harm for no real gain in outcome.
History will not judge those who took us here well.
February 12, 2021
correct, especially when a large percentage of those dying of covid caught it inside an NHS building.
February 12, 2021
Judgements, if there are to be any, will be wrapped up by the establishment and hidden away for a hundred years.
February 12, 2021
The problem is not the level of deaths, it is that our hospitals will be overwhelmed if we do not lock down.
The NHS needs to continue to function to treat people for cancer, diabetes and many other conditions.
It would be political suicide to allow the health service to collapse.
No government will allow it.
Also, on a slight tangent, I found all the posts defending outdated fossil fuel technology and coal hilarious. Arthur Scargill would truly be proud.
February 13, 2021
The NHS is the largest employer in Europe. How can the largest employer be overwhelmed ?
No one is complaining about the loss of fossil fuels. What people are complaining about is the poor thinking and policies behind said thinking and the scam that CO2 reduction by the West will save the world when China and others are major polluters.
As for Arthur Scargill ? He did more harm to the coal industry than good and left no one laughing in the end.
February 13, 2021
I think we are in broad agreement then.
Renewables are the future. The main question is how we go about implementing them.
And I am not defending Scargill in any way – no more than I would defend the many governments before Thatcher who did not grab the bull by the horns and supported a dinosaur industry, making its eventual end far worse that it would have been otherwise.
I think those that defend coal and fossil fuels are doing the same. Yes, money is wasted on green policies – but it’s better spent than supporting dirty power generation that is becoming more antiquated by the day.
February 13, 2021
But the NHS WAS overwhelmed and cancer patients DID go untreated !
February 12, 2021
@Mark B; Your rant tells us far more about you than it does those in the WHO and national govts….
“History will not judge those who took us here well.”
Oh it will, success is measured in how few deaths, not how many! The Spanish Flu pandemic of 1919 was an abject failure of public health management/control, and many lessons were learnt.
February 12, 2021
‘Spanish Flu’ was also an exercise in spin. The flu originated in the USA.
February 12, 2021
It is not flippant it is factual balanced reasoning and that is what the job of govt of should have been once given advice. Not propagate fear!
February 12, 2021
What do you anti-lock-downers consider to be an economically acceptable death rate in the global population? More precisely, the rate in western capitalist societies. Say you use a metric like: the minimum required deaths per 1% of potential loss of GDP; before you make any anti-virus intervention whatsoever in your business as usual, there is no virus it’s all a government plot, free market economy.
February 12, 2021
@acorn. It’s not about deaths. The world could do with some Malthusian checks. It is about hospitalizations and coping.
We could lose a few million globally and not notice it but overwhelmed hospitals will see governments out of office.
Do you recall @lifelogic in March calling for redundancy in ventilator capacity? And that from a non interventionist. What would the lefties call for?
February 13, 2021
Of course you need extra capacity in the system so as to be reasonably able to cope with peaks as they come.
February 13, 2021
acorn
As Ignoramus alluded to above, the lockdown was in response to the fact that there was real fear the NHS could not cope. This would have been a major political embarrassment and would have raised serious questions about the government and the NHS itself. None of which would have made good reading.
The problem for me is, that once we went from. “Saving Our NHS”, the government started to move the goalposts even when it became clear that the virus was not as bad as first feared, as affected the old and the unwell, and the danger had all but passed by early to mid-summer.
As to you question. I direct you to one, Joseph Stalin and his quote about lives and statistics.
February 13, 2021
Mark B
They shut most of the NHS down so it “… wouldn’t collapse.”
I personally know two people under 60 of good weight and of otherwise good health who have died because the NHS was shut down. I know of none who have died of CV-19.
February 12, 2021
Perhaps case numbers in the ‘advanced world’ have been higher because of far more sophisticated and widespread data knowledge and availability?
How many Indian or Pakistani villages have General Practitioners who can relay information to a central base for analysis? The Tanzanian Govt has declared that Covid-19 can be cured by herbal remedies and will therefore not need vaccines, and I strongly doubt whether the Zimbabwean authorities could tell you what day of the week it was.
February 12, 2021
This confirms that you are going ahead with a massive reorganisation of the NHS without knowing the lessons that can be learned from the more successful countries, US mostly private care, Germany mixed provision. Obviously politically unacceptable, more important than actual peopleās lives.
Maybe your centralised bureaucratic slow to react approach was the reason? Unfortunately your cowardly approach frightened of Labour means that we we will continue to not get the best available despite it being shown through cross infections and dumping people into care homes that a system set up to save has killed some unnecessarily. A class action for corporate manslaughter might concentrate the mind.
Will there be lobbying to learn the lessons before changes are made. Somehow I doubt it.
February 12, 2021
Ps no senior management team with an ounce of common sense would undertake a major reorganisation without a comprehensive review of the lessons to be learned from such an event as Covid.
Says it all that that is precisely what Hancock is doing, looking to bury the unpalatable truth I guess.
February 12, 2021
When discussing Asian countries’ low incidence of death and serious symptoms you shy away from obesity why is that Sir John. Surely you are not afraid of the body positive lobby.
Everyone I see interviewed in hospital telling us what a horrible disease they have suffered is at least overweight.
February 12, 2021
good friend of mine died of covid, was not overweight at all. so thats a duff analysis.
February 12, 2021
You sound just like the other what about mes
February 12, 2021
Good morning Sir John
Audit trails, facts and figures are OK up to a point. But given the variance in how each nation calculates(ego & prestige comes to mind) they contribute very little to the understanding and veracity of the pandemic.
Then factor in the guesses that get called science( no peer reviews ) all we have is an anecdotal feel that things are not as we would want them to be. For instance in our own backyard this thing call SAGE along with the ONS historically have never been close to actual reality( the ONS traditionally has a caveat in their T&C’s that what they say cannot be said to be correct and they will correct things at a latter date).
On that basis has Germany done that much better the Spain? – Who knows (maybe ‘the WHO’ has an idea)
The bad readings for the UK is as result of the one size fits all central command, we are ordered by those that think the can direct the day-to-day situation based on their metro outlook on life. All they are promoting is ‘We Don’t Believe You’ so a good chunk ignore everything and continue spreading every new variant
February 12, 2021
Tanking the world’s economy for .03%.
This really proves lockdowns are about preventing pictures of overwhelmed hospitals being broadcast rather than protecting against deaths.
Given much spread is in the hospitals themselves we do need to learn about isolation for the sick for the future rather than isolation for the healthy.
February 12, 2021
Travellers cheating on where they are coming from? Then they should fill out a form on where they’ve been for the last 5 years, with dates, times and countries and who they have been in close contact with anywhere including air passenger manifests etc. etc. at any time with their names and addresses. Any doubt on their info then 10 years prison!!
I can help as I have a building company to help build more prisons which would help our GDP – plenty of customers I think.
February 12, 2021
I cancelled this as I had another comment but the cancellation obviously didn’t work – there is a glitch on this site. Also replying to another comment there was no space to comment – another site glitch.
February 13, 2021
+1
February 12, 2021
Our host doesn’t mention countries such as Australia and New Zealand, both countries have a far better success rate at controlling Covid 19 and a far healthier economies as a result, but then they acted -like Taiwan and South Korea did- decisively almost immediately, a common trend amongst countries that took on board the lessons from the SARS outbreak of 2002-4.
February 12, 2021
jerry,
I think Sir John makes these points by implication. For example New Zealand has fewer entry points, was in Summer (seasonal vitamin D, seasonal gene expression, seasonal outdoor behaviour advantages), the main population centre (Auckland) is at -38.8 (compared with London at +51.5), lower population density (and larger properties and gardens outside the centre) etc. I haven’t seen New Zealand’s historic seasonal virus data, and how it performed the previous year.
New Zealand’s excellent per capita performance does align with its Asian neighbours. Although the above points probably contribute, I haven’t yet seen studies of Auckland population specifically in terms of covid19 antibodies, nor studies in terms of cross reactive immunity. About one-third of Auckland is Asian, with over half of that of East Asian origin. These populations have frequent contact with Asia, moreover the centre of Auckland has a large East Asian student population that travels back and forth on a semester or annual basis. There could be a possibility of previous related infections and underlying immunity in this part of the world, but I don’t know where the data or studies are on this.
February 13, 2021
@Caterpillar & @Helen Smith; Both Australia and NZ have gone through their winter, in fact when CV19 first hit they were in (late) winter, and don’t forget here in the UK we were entering our summer months yet the start of our second wave of CV19 here in the UK had already started by the end of our summer and then accelerated, so your point about seasonal vitamin D is somewhat moot.
If vitamin D was such a simple cure for CV19, or at least its spread, why haven’t we all been told to simply take a vitamin D supplement, cheap as chips to produce, for the NHS to dish out, even the supermarkets could have had BOGOF offers – perhaps the reason there has been no such action is because it makes not a scrap of difference and as such would do nothing but lure people into a fails sense of security. It is not vitamin D, or any other quack cures, that stops CV19 but isolation, containment and (now) vaccines.
Both Australia and NZ successfully manage(d) CV19 due to the imposition of very early, very tight, restrictions from the get-go (hence why the entire State of Victoria has entered a snap 5 day lockdown due a handfull of cases in Melbourne), both internally and externally, closing their external boarders and imposing strict quarantine to those who did enter their countries. The daft thing is, whilst there is no doubt such an approach damaged both the Australian and NZ economies in the short term both have suffered far less long term than countries who dithered or took no action…
February 14, 2021
jerry,
1) Points about seasonality of vit D and gene expression are that (i) it does buy time by slowing spread and limiting disease so borders can be closed / most infectious cases identified and, (ii) it is possible that people catch the virus with few symptoms so community immunity is increased (A T-cell study in NZ is needed).
2) You are absolutely right to question why the Government didn’t support vitamin D (and hydroxy vitamin D) and indeed general improvement of metabolic health. There is substantially more evidence for these than either masks or lockdowns.
February 14, 2021
@Caterpillar; A well balanced diet, high in necessary vitamins etc. has long been known to cut the risks post infections & assisting recovery, nothing rocket science in that, but many viruses cause such damage no amount of natural or additional Vitamins etc. will affect outcome.
Even without the NHS offering the seasonal Flu vaccine to a wider number of people this winter, cases of both the Common Cold and seasonal Flu are way down, even amongst those who are ‘essential or permitted workers’, why might that be, given most people are not taking any additional VitD but are wearing masks?
February 12, 2021
Both have extremely high UV levels, are isolated islands and have extremely low population density, plus the population can be and usually is outside all year round.
February 12, 2021
@jerry
Maybe they just closed their borders and don’t have to put up with the whining of those unaffected Covid carriers wishing foreign holidays without having to quarantine.
February 12, 2021
There are some interesting figures on numbers of deaths and their percentage of the population. Who believes the accuracy of them ? Is every country counting in the same way ? Is every country being honest ?
Is Belgium really worse than North Korea or China or Venezuela or Nigeria?
Statistics can be presented in many ways. Itās a numbers game as any good accountant will tell you….what numbers would you like to submit sir…no problem , Iām sure we can arrive at the figure you have in mind.
February 13, 2021
China, like New Zealand etc., has, for practical purposes ELIMINATED the virus.
Independent scientific observers support this.
February 12, 2021
Scientists are now opposing the re-opening of schools because they say it will cause an infection spike. So they KNOW that schools are a major factor. The only reason gyms and swimming pools have to remain closed is that it is politically unacceptable to open them before schools, not because of any risk.
February 12, 2021
@beresford; When will some grasp the fact, the problem with any viral transmission is not location specific but that of mass social gatherings, be that schools, gyms, pubs, clubs, churches or where ever – even within the private home.
February 12, 2021
If the virus mutates into something that was really dangerous – that killed 1 in 4 people – that put us in a ābring out your deadā situation, would it then ban international travel? How serious would it have to get before that, the most simple and logical step, happened?
February 12, 2021
@Mike Wilson – in the light of the performance of the prophets to date would you believe them…
February 12, 2021
Good questions all, you have chosen not to add that one factor seems to be that our NHS has performed worse than the health service in Germany (just one example) across a range of issues – control of infections in hospital being only one. Deaths seem to correlate strongly with obesity (more so than with lockdown severity) – maybe another reason Japan/Taiwan/Thailand have done better. Japan is particularly interesting because they only did a very loose shambolic lockdown and even now have tested far less than other developed countries.
February 12, 2021
There is little point in the vaccine if it won’t get us out of lockdown. To get my country out of lockdown was the one standard I set for taking a rushed vaccine into my body which I have spent so much time keeping fit and healthy through good diet and exercise. I’ll be buggered if I’m to keep taking shots for every variant. What’s that going to do to my system ?
I suggest every fit and healthy person (young or old) think the same way and going by lots of news articles and comments I’m reading, they already are.
I haven’t seen friends and relatives for months. I haven’t been out anywhere for months.
So why does Mr Hancock think anyone should be scared of going to prison ???
February 12, 2021
This government has the chance to get us out of lockdown once the over 50s are vaccinated (and we’ll know if that’s been stalled deliberately.) Adrian Chiles is worth reading today. The Tories are pushing it now and will never ever get over being the party that made having fun and being human a criminal offence.
February 12, 2021
I think, over the past year, that all of Sir John’s points have been discussed in his diary or comments thereon, it is worrying that there has been so littel transparent progress.
Points that still concern me now are;
To recognise the risk of disruption of evolutionary selection. āhigh levels of international travel can introduce a community to more variants and cases of the virusā ā this initial disadvantage quickly becomes an advantage as long as it is not disrupted by breaking up contacts (e.g. by lockdowns, local/regional cordons etc.), under normal circumstance the less harmful variants win out, quarantining the low/no symptom people stops this selection, separating out groups into local areas allow ānastierā mutations to take local hold. The high risk could be further accentuated by narrowly focussed āvaccinesā being given to low risk people ā if the vaccines do not halt transmission at a high percentage but merely reduce the level of disease this could also break the natural selection process to less harmful mutations. (This is a different kind of prophylactic thinking to say vitamin D or lysosomotropic agents aimed at general health, proteostasis or triggering of dysfunctional integrated stress response).
To stop flattening the people and making every life a tragedy. Open up immediately, do not go down the slippery path of vaccine passports, hold dictators to account for human rights abuses.
To recover mixing of national and international populations We know the disease damage of old and new world meeting, recreating such separated populations is horrifying.
February 12, 2021
A cynic would say that low cost treatments such as Vitamin D supplements, hydroxichloroquine, and Ivermectin get very little attention because they are cheap. Pharmaceutical Companies focus on expensive solutions. The latest is tocilizumab. Costs Ā£500 and saves one life in 25 and gets approval. Another drug is Budenoside, claimed to be 90% effective but ignored. The way out of this crisis is cheap treatments that prevent serious illness but only drugs that are eye watering lay expensive have any interest to the regulators.
February 12, 2021
Mike, and the prophylactic treatments have as many case studies as the vaccinations! Yet ignored? Same for Great Barrington Declaration. The Govt vaccination rollout advised by JVCI demonstrates the age range and vulnerable order to,be protected. Exactly what the Great Barrington Declaration would,ahve achieved without the catastrophic economic consequences. I hope Johnson and Handcock will be singled out for specific criticism and if possible prosecution under ECHR, especially as they wanted to be remain in it.
February 12, 2021
The AZ vaccine (that I got this morning for my first injection thanks it seems to a dearth of 70-74 year old people in my surgery willing to get it) appears to cost Ā£3 the injected unit.
Hydroxychloroquine appears to be Ā£20+ for 200 tablets, Ivermectin around between Ā£40 and 60 for 20 tablets, Vitamin D (which by the way has not been shown to do anything) is indeed cheaper (90 tablets for Ā£2.50).
February 12, 2021
Hefner, could that ‘dearth of 70-74 yr olds’ be because they’re aware the AZ vaccine wasn’t trialled on anyone over 60? These things get around.
February 13, 2021
Hef,minteresrimg if correct. Ah, but was available before any discovered vaccination. We still do not know medium or long term side effects. It appears two doses required now become three! Not sure the figures are correct about additional costs when considering transport to keep it at such freezing temperatures.
February 12, 2021
Once can rarely be too cynical I find.
Do you remember Jo Moore, who worked for Labourās Stephen Byers, the Secretary of State for Transport at the time with her āa good day to bury bad newsā memo on 9/11! Even I would not have expected that.
Or even now we have JCVI and Hancock who will not change their anti-male vaccination priority order to save hundreds of life as they cannot bring themselves to admit they got such a basic thing so wrong. These people will this have to die to safe their face it seems! They have been told of the error!
February 12, 2021
Mike Wroe – agreed – Follow the money. Donald Trump fought the Pharmaceutical companies, much to their annoyance, to reduce the prices of drugs in the USA knowing of the horrendous profits they make. The primary role of these companies is to make money not to heal and the people need to wake up to this fact. There are no recriminations against pharmaceutical companies unless you have millions to fight.
Similar with the medical industry.
February 12, 2021
Regulators do not develop new indications for approved medicines or conduct clinical trials. They are out of patent treatments that pharmaceutical companies cannot exploit.
February 12, 2021
Government is losing the plot on hotel quarantine. Apparently they will pay the hotel bills and will then send an invoice to the occupants and hope they will pay up – shades of the NHS when they treat the whole world for free and are hardly bothered about reclaiming the fees due.
Also reports about huge numbers of lockdown fines of Ā£200 or even Ā£10,000 but no reports of how many are actually paid.
February 12, 2021
+1 well said Miami.Mode
February 12, 2021
Backdown ‘Boris’ working his magic power again.
February 12, 2021
Crazy.
Simply take passport and credit card at reception. They can do this, its how they account for the mini-bar contents. Simple.
February 12, 2021
Difficult to make sense of any figures when so many Countries are using so many different reference points for recording infection, hospitalisation, and deaths, or simply not recording much with any accuracy at all.
The important thing is that the populations of each Country are confident with the action being taken in their own Country.
Given that their are many different views, based on sometimes rather flakey information, or little prior knowledge at all about the virus, even between so called experts on how it is spread, how it is treated, and how best to protect the population, advice has sometimes been rather confusing and contradictory.
The important thing now we have a working vaccine, is how do we best now start to move forward before we have tens of thousands left with mental health problems, businesses going bankrupt, and people losing their homes through lack income.
February 12, 2021
We left the EU at the end of January 2020.
A year on, the economy has slumped by a record breaking 10%.
How would you all say your Brexit is going?
Reply We left the single market and customs union end December 2020, so on your logic the big fall is down to being in it! I thought something else was happening that mattered more.
February 12, 2021
Andy,
You delayed us four years and along comes this 1 in 100 year black swan event while we were in limbo.
Brexiters now have the perfect cover in CV-19 and it’s all your fault.
February 12, 2021
I didnāt delay anything. It is not my fault that Brexiteers spent four years arguing among themselves before completely capitulating and signing this country up for the lousiest deal in history.
Competence is not a Brexiteer strong point. But then nor is honesty.
February 12, 2021
+1 Well said Sir!
February 12, 2021
Even by your standards, that is really grasping at straws.
February 12, 2021
We will probably never establish exactly what share of the drop is due to Covid and what to Brexit. But even if you attribute some share to Breixt, all it has done is to expose the extent to which the UK economy became over-reliant on trading with the EU. If all Brexit does is to reverse the process of de-industrialisation during EU membership by erecting a customs barrier between the UK and its currency and market manipulating neighbour, that will be well worth it in the long run, despite some costs in the short run. National borders have a *reason*.
February 12, 2021
The big difference between Asians and Europeans is obesity. This is a well-known comorbidity for succumbing to the virus. We have become a society full of unhealthy, state-dependent people.
February 12, 2021
And our population is generally older and kept alive with life threatening conditions on medication. Yet a surfeit of calories and record longevity is somehow reported as a ‘failure of Capitalism’.
February 12, 2021
The truth – stark and unvarnished.
Zorro
February 12, 2021
In March lots of us were wondering why there were planes landing every day in the UK from China, Italy and other covid hotspots. Passengers were being waved through for example Heathrow and in many cases straight onto the packed like sardines London Underground system. Many of us wanted to know why this vector of the disease wasn’t closed down. We were told that the advice was that it would make little or no difference to do so. Ten months on and it is now that you could face a 10 year prison sentence for effectively doing the same thing. What has changed? If it not alright now then it certainly wasn’t alright then. Why can’t someone just put their hands up and say “Sorry we got it wrong”
They would get screamed at by the usual suspects, but those of us who consider themselves supporters of the government would have far more respect for them. It is the lack of such actions and spinning figures to scaremonger us that makes us lose respect for them.
February 12, 2021
Two, of many things that have uneased me, are related to treatments.
(i) The āgold-standardisingā of random controlled trials. RCTs are gold-standard for internal validity (strong evidence of causation and a measure of average treatment effect), but even then do not remove all bias. RCTs have been roundly criticised on many grounds including slowing down knowledge progress, poor generalisability and ethics. Mechanistic studies, longitudinal case studies, massive protocol development, massive observational studies etc. should not be ignored. (Thereās plenty of history.)
(ii) Early vs late intervention. To some extent I understand the Govtās initial response of withholding early care and only having hospital admission if peopleās symptoms worsened. In (naĆÆvely?) accepting CCP and WHO honesty, and assuming the early Italian hospital reporting was representative, having a late treatment bias may well have been inevitable at the beginning. It did though seem to go on for some time (how long?) and may have biased which and how treatments were assessed. That the effects of this leaning seem to have lasted disturbs me. Jo Bloggs in the street knows of early intervention for herpes simplex (-all those tingly lip advertisements) or shingles etc; Iād guess early intervention for viruses might be a common approach.
February 12, 2021
I had to smile this morning – China has banned BBC WORLD NEWS. Pity we haven’t ?
February 12, 2021
Sure thing, but they have banned it because of its coverage of China, not its coverage of the UK.
February 13, 2021
Given the UK is not a big world power why do we have a BBC World Service??
Scrap it and save money
We moan about Tax payers money going overseas yet a % of Broadcasting license is World Service – get rid of it.
February 12, 2021
On the figures we should see time series of mid-year to mid-year all cause mortality per capita, ideally crude, age adjusted and by age band.
Seeing and publishing this for the U.K. will hopefully encourage other countries to do the same for better comparison. We have seen England and Wales data from ONS by calendar year, this is unclear due to conflating two viral seasons. We have also seen Euromomo z-scores by age which show England mortality peaks in young, not shown by other European countries. So we must see these mid-year to mid-year time series for U.K. nations now, and of course at the end of June this year.
February 12, 2021
I see an Irish GP has said he will not be giving his patients any vaccines, as he cannot in all conscience jab anything into their arms that he would not take himself.
February 12, 2021
How about temperature as a factor – both India and Australia have low rates?
February 13, 2021
As largely did the UK last Summer. Vitamin D from sunshine perhaps too.
February 12, 2021
Well, there is no doubt that fantastic and brave and hard working though front line NHS are the hospitals have been a major source of transmission for the virus, I also think we have been over cautious in using drugs.
Re Asia Iām sure that previous exposure to SARS has both given them experience in handling this epidemic and some cross immunity, and poorer countries tend to be hotter which has damped down the virus and have a younger, slimmer population, which has damped down Covidās ability to kill.
Iām glad you continually push the government for updates on drugs, thank you, but please, please, donāt throw the baby out with the bath water, we are this close to getting all the vulnerable vaccinated, donāt open up to much too soon, we 60+ deserve a future too.
February 12, 2021
As a professional numbers are not particularly important for every single life is as important as another. Large research projects are not accurate because of the many variables as you have stated. Of course if something is found to be effective and not harmful it will be tried again in various cases with attention to co morbidities . I fear that we will get sweeping interpretations of results which actually mean little, however until then we will see . Remember people used to put frogs at the bottom of the garden to get rid of warts and most were or eventually cured!
February 12, 2021
We have a society which is harder to shut down. We are not used to taking orders which adversly affect our lives. Many people are not in good health. Too much obesity and diabetes arounnd. Our hospitals are pretty filthy at the best of times.
February 12, 2021
I’m worried about the discrepancy between this:
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk#latest-r-and-growth-rate
saying that the rate of retreat of the virus in England is now between 3% and 5% a day, central value 4%, and the chart in Figure 1 here:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/12february2021#number-of-people-who-had-covid-19-in-england-wales-northern-ireland-and-scotland
with the level of infection in England declining from 2.2% on January 1 to 1.3% on February 6, which I work out to be a shrinkage rate of just 1.5% a day compounded over 35 days.
Any ideas why this should be?
Either way the rate at which the infection is receding is painfully slow, even at 4% a day it would take 56 days for it to go down by a factor of 10, while at 1.5% a day it would take 152 days.
February 12, 2021
And now there is this:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/02/12/coronavirus-infections-will-back-summer-levels-early-march/
claiming that:
“Coronavirus infections ‘will be back to summer levels by early March'”
Given that at its lowest point last summer, as reported on July 9, the infection rate in England was 0.026% of the population:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/england9july2020
which is 50 times lower than the ONS estimate of the current infection rate in England, at the ONS rate of decline of 1.5% a day that would need 259 days, taking us to the middle of October not early March.
With such widely varying projections I wonder how the government can make any decisions.
February 13, 2021
As a further thought, I have now worked out that the rate of decline required to get that fifty-fold reduction by March 8 would be 15% a day compounded (as 0.85 to the power of 24 = 0.02), which is an order of magnitude greater than the 1.5% a day compounded deduced from the ONS results since January 1. That is the span of the widest results from three supposedly respectable studies reported on the same day; the third lies in between the other two, with 4.0% a day as its central rate of shrinkage of the infection in England.
February 13, 2021
They are potentially extrapolating the case curves from here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ to a hopeful conclusion.
February 12, 2021
“This week I was pleased to be sent an update by Ministers on all the tests underway in the UK of existing drugs and treatments.”
The only treatments I am interested in are (i) Calcifediol, (ii) SNG001 (the interferon inhaler produced by Synairgen), and (iii) monoclonal antibodies.
These have all passed small-scale trials with 100% efficacy, and given that the safety of all three of these treatments has been confirmed, the next, larger, trial now should be simple: every single patient.
February 12, 2021
Like you Iām v interested in monoclonal antibodies and cannot for the life of me understand why the NHS would not do a rapid stage 3 trial of inhaled beta interferon 6 months ago when it had such outstanding state 2 results. I gather it was left to share holders to fund one, resulting in a long delay. If, as I hope, this turns out to be life saver someone is going to have a lot of explaining to do.
February 12, 2021
Follow the facts. Follow the monied interests.
Fund independent investigate all correlations between the death rates, hospitalization,infections with other factors. Including weather, vitamins, health , sex , blood, density of population etc. Then political & bureaucratic decision making. Deference to compromised WHO.Not curtailing EU travel or international Airports e.g flights from Wuhan etc. NHS sending positive patients to infect others. Reliance on unreliable EU supply chains. Vouchers to eat and spread Covid, instead of just removing VAT on takeaways.
Am hearing stories that “gain of function” research was more difficult in western countries and so moved to others, potentially leading to the assumed accidental or predictable release. This was supported by a number of high ranking officials and no doubt others in the west. Who were they and what was there influence on HMG policy?
Please investigate whether this impacted decision making.
February 12, 2021
I am picking up snippets of information from various forums that MP’s have either already, or intend to vote to allow the police to have access to anyone’s medical records without the persons consent. Is this true?
If it is, then the British people are indeed living in a police state and claims from this purportedly conservative government that we live in a democracy is a vile lie.
February 12, 2021
Sir John, I see that following his meeting with the EU yesterday to discuss all the problems with the Northern Ireland Protocol, Michael Gove ended up expressing his “full commitment” to it!!! I told you the government would capitulate to the EU and betray our fellow-citizens in Northern Ireland. We have a quisling govenment that stabs its own people in the back.
The UK is ONE country, and goods (and pets!) should move from London to Belfast as easily as they do from Liverpool to Birmingham. Instead the government have allowed the EU to split the UK into two, and this is UNFORGIVABLE.
February 12, 2021
The Conservative Party voted to split the country in two. If you are one of the minority who voted Tory in the 2019 election it is your fault. Most of us didnāt.
February 12, 2021
I had an interesting discussion with an NHS consultant recently. He was fascinated by this topic and had done some research. He told me that Germany had prepared a plan for a SARs type pandemic (based on what happened with SARs 1) which they had expected around 2017-2024 hence why they had track and trace, excess ventilators and a massive stock of PPE already. This explains why they did well initially (the UK emergency pandemic planning was based on Flu). Part of their plan assumed that developing a vaccine would take around 36 months – hence why they were more relaxed about ordering them initially.
In the end we will only really know the full toll when we compare excess mortality in all the countries. A death from untreated cancer because the hospital is full is effectively a death caused by the virus (all be it indirectly). I suspect some countries (such a Russia) will not have such good outcomes as current data suggests. In addition many countries will have the health burden of long-covid sufferers.
There is certainly a puzzle as to why Belgium, UK and Italy seem to have such a dreadful death toll.
February 13, 2021
I wish to correct your ‘untreated cancer death is effectively caused by the virus’ – the death is caused by inadequate Government and NHS taking over all available resources from the cancer suffering population. There is an important difference.
February 12, 2021
John, the success of the Taiwanese is well documented. Having been subjected to previous pandemics they have a very good track and trace and GPS based early warning system in place with self isolation being swift and enforced. But one of their main successes, which our media and government seem reluctant to acknowledge, is that they have re-purposed and used existing drugs for those who fall ill. These are the inhaled steroid types. Unfortunately our scientists seem to still be ‘evaluating’ some drugs.
As for Italy and Spain, you have to look at the extended family structure for their issues, and for the US, I have mentioned before that their doctors are given less ‘instruction’ on what they can or cannot prescribe and some have looked at the success of Taiwan and followed suit. One doctor interviewed on US TV stated that with this approach he had no fatalities even in the elderly and infirm.
Our vaccine-centric approach to the detriment of all other possibilities is a real missed opportunity and for that you have to point the finger at SAGE.
February 12, 2021
Talking about Mat Hancock MP, Jonathan Sumption(former Supreme court justice): “Mr Hancock’s connection with reality which has been getting looser for some time, has finally snapped ..” ” .. Mat Hancock is on record as saying the Government will stop at nothing to suppress COVID-19 ..” ” .. ministers who will ‘stop at nothing’ to achieve their objectives are dangerous fanatics .. ”
Charles Walker: ” .. utterly ridiculous thing for the Secretary of State for Health to say ..” “.. a really stupid thing to say .. ” ” that demeans his office and position around the Cabinet table .. ”
John Redwood, do you agree with Sumption and Walker? Because I think they are absolutely spot on in their appraisal of Mat Hancock as a ‘stupid’, ‘dangerous fanatic’, who has no place in a democratic institution.
It’s well past time the Parliamentary Tory party did something about this insane government.
February 12, 2021
+1
February 12, 2021
Better to be honest about the need for tax rises. Instead of increasing the burden by stealth, the Tories should openly break their manifesto promises, says Jeremy Warner in the Telegraph today.
Except Mr Warner that raising tax rates from the current highest taxes for 70 years will raise less tax not more. Far better look at everyone working in the state sector and cut out all those delivering negative or very little value (about 75% of them), then cull HS2, drop the war on plant food and expensive energy agenda, then look at university degree and cull all the student loans for duff degree (again about 75% of them. Then sort out the dire NHS state monopoly and have a bonfire of red tape. Then cut taxes and revenue will grow. That would be a very good start.
February 12, 2021
Some interesting numbers, none more so than those of Indians who are indigenous to India and BAME here. There must be many factors, not least the age and health profile of the respective populations.
There is substantial evidence that people who are admitted to hospital with serious disease are deficient in Vitamin D3. Vitamin D is mostly manufactured in the skin from sunlight; for this reason we English have white skin which provides less protection from the Sun’s rays than dark skin but also allows higher levels of Viamin D production. Consequently, those whose ancestors evolved in sunnier climes are predisposed to deficiency when here. Even for the British, the climate is not ideal otherwise we would not have evolved a high incidence of the ‘red hair’ gene that provides no protection from the Sun but optimises Vitamin D manufacture.
How does this affect obesity? Viamin D is stored in body fat and perhaps there is less therefore available to the immune system in obese people. Overweight people are often less mobile and suffer from joint problems of the hips and knees as a consequence of overloading.
Some foods contains vitamin D, particularly oily fish and Cod Liver Oil.
February 12, 2021
I’m a bit concerned to read that Prof Ugur Sahin, Chief executive of Pfizer says leaving the second dose 12 weeks is not recommended. He advises 6 weeks maximum. I am also concerned to read that the next phase of people to be vaccinated may not go to plan due to lack of supplies. It doesn’t inspire me with confidence. It has also been confirmed today that a health condition I have is not on my medical records and that I am not in the group listed as having underlying health conditions when i should br. Marvellous.
February 12, 2021
I think that, on balance, it is almost certain that more people with one vaccine shot initially will save far more lives than half of the number with two shots – as I suggested a couple of weeks before Blair did.
It is absolutely certain more would survive if they adjusted the vaccine priority order for the increased male gender risk but it seems the government would prefer these people (mainly male) to die rather than admit their error.
February 12, 2021
Agreed. Especially if it is the Oxford vaccine.
February 13, 2021
The CEO of AZ has said that the one dose to many strategy is better and other countries should follow. I think he also said that no recommendation was made regarding intervals between vaccinations.
As for males getting the vaccine first, can you imagine the outcry form ‘wimmins’ groups ? The BBC would be going crazy about a sexist mysoginistic government blah blah.
February 12, 2021
I understand but disagree with the government’s reasons for not giving a vaccine certificate at the time of vaccination.
It may well be that a certificate will be required for foreign travel or other things outside our control. Would it not be more efficient for a certificate to be given automatically with the second jab? This would save GPs and their surgeries from having to provide a certificate later, at a time when they are likely to be stretched.
As few if any second jabs have been given yet, there is still time for you to use your influence, Sir John, to press for this.
February 12, 2021
UK has certainly not had 116,000 virus deaths.
That official number is a complete fabrication and anyone with a brain knows the real number is a fraction of that total.
When will this government tell the truth?
Never.
February 13, 2021
The reality is that in a normal year Care Home residents and those elderly or sadly near the end of life for several reasons number many many thousands – we all have to die eventually.
This pandemic and the shockingly awful lack of preventative measures has meant that a significant percentage of the normal deaths may have been hastened by contact with Covid and reported as such.
This has allowed scientists, opportunists and weak Government to seize the stage of control and self-importance. As yet the public have proved to be compliant but the vaccines will now bring into question where willingnes to kneel stops.
February 12, 2021
With respect, these are last year’s questions, Sir John. We’ve now got answers to some of them. For the ones to do with Covid statistics, we won’t know the real truth, because that wasn’t the idea anyway.
This year’s questions are more to do with unlicensed vaccines, and where we can get honest answers. From the manufacturer’s press releases? I don’t think so.
February 12, 2021
W. T. F. are we even accepting passengers in to the country?
Surely the air lines, ferries or trains would rather take a short term hit and get the country back in full control of the situation . We are either in full control or we ain’t. Can we get a grip? Is it too much to ask? Lockdown surely by definition means no one in, no one out.
If we don’t this is just going to keep rolling on helping nobody. The direction has to come from the top.It is that sword in the sand moment. No loans for hotel isolation or other sticking plasters. Just get it got
February 12, 2021
Why are there no numbers for the amount of Flu deaths, it is all COVID, normally we are told the numbers of Summer and Winter victims, taking that out of the COVID numbers, and it is very many thousands ever year ?
February 12, 2021
Didn’t you get the message – Pneumonia & Flu was cured last year….all deaths are due to covid-19
February 12, 2021
You make a good point in your tweet about backup energy. The Germans have found their solar panels are under snow and their wind turbines stationary, so luckily for them their neighbours have been able to supply them with energy from traditional sources. All this when the weather is really cold. Let us hope our government doesn’t lose touch with reality and responsibility just because we are having that conference in Glasgow.
February 13, 2021
I have tried to find out how other countries count cases and even deaths and failed to do so. Unless the counting is done in exactly the same way claiming the uk is the worst is absurd.
It needs to be the same population density and the same counting methods.
February 13, 2021
The Oxford Recovery team for Ivermectin is the same one that trialled HCQ and found that there was no improvement compared to the placebo group. Unfortunately, they used five times the maximum dosage given in the drug bible, the BNF. They also omitted zinc, which all of the successful foreign trials used and treated hospital patients in the later stages, who were very ill. All of the HCQ treatments found that it had to be used earlier in order to work.
For the Ivermectin trial they are recruiting patients in the late stages again, despite the foreign trials finding that it works better given early and not waiting until the patients are so ill that they need specialist hospital treatment. The lead for these trials is Professor Horby, who is chairman of the NERVTAG Committee advising the government on lockdown.
Corrected.
February 13, 2021
Please stop playing the ‘grey man’ John and condemn this actions of this mad government. The time for warm words and helpful suggestions is over. Its not acceptable to allow non covid deaths and business failure to let rip. Where is the proof that the scare tactics and closing down of the economy has saved a single life.
February 13, 2021
Taiwan and other Asian countries did experience SARS and had advanced plans in place. They also don’t have the same system of old peoples homes. Many elders live with the family or family live with elders.
I do question some of the statistics from other countries eg India, I don’t think every death gets recorded and for sure not in the same way.
Germany and some other countries have a much more integrated health system and the funding is higher to support this. They are also more disciplined.
I am in favour of UK health system similar to Germany and higher direct tax to pay for it.
UK also has a much higher proportion of over weight people that puts an additional burden both on health service and individual health
February 14, 2021
so which country has the same population density and counts anything in the way we do.?
I cannot find out how EU countries count except one only counted deaths in hospital . Even Sweden wasnt counting care home deaths for a long time.
Media take any cheap anti British shot it can and I suspect its just too bone idle to look up how other countries count.