It is no surprise that President Putin is massing troops and weapons in support of Russian sympathisers in East Ukraine. The fighting season in that strife torn corner of Europe is coming upon us, and there is a new US President to test out. The West claims that Crimea was illegally taken by Russia and should be returned. Russia argues the people of Crimea by a large majority wished to be part of Russia, so they assisted them under the doctrine of self determination of peoples and held a confirmatory referendum. This the west says was not properly monitored and supervised by the international community, so is not accepted by the West. It was a Russian annexation. Since then pro Russian locals in parts of Eastern Ukraine have fought to reposition their part of Ukraine and bring it into Russia. The West thinks Russia has fomented these troubles and provided troops and weapons, whilst Russia argues they are spontaneous brought on by strong feelings of identity from people living in the area.
Mr Putin may well be looking for ways to repay President Biden for his tough language against Russia in his opening weeks in office. Mr Putin also knows that he is punching a bruise, with the President’s own son having a Ukraine business connection and with the long US rows over possible Russian involvement in past US elections. He may gamble that he can get away with more, thinking Joe Biden will not take military action. Meanwhile the President is going through the usual escalation book, sending two warships to the neighbouring sea as a show of strength in support of the government of Ukraine whose forces are engaging with the pro Russian forces on the ground. With any luck neither man will overplay their hands, as neither would want a war between them over this issue. This is a conflict by proxy, where the Russian interest may be in having a bit more territory to extend its western frontier but where Russia has already achieved her main aim by taking Crimea with its warm water ports on the Black Sea.
April 14, 2021
Putin believes in the politics of murdering those who do not agree with him. He should not be appeased. As you say neither side want a major conflict, but making it known that crossing a known line has consequences is no bad thing. Historically the first step was the Ruhr which was ignored with an outcome we do not want repeated.
April 14, 2021
Well, certainly it appears that some pro-Putin people believe in murdering his opponents whether he does or not, but he doesn’t seem that bothered about it if so.
words left out ed
But broadly, I agree with John’s piece and with your response.
April 14, 2021
Interesting, that a few words simply reminding people of what was all over the news after Jan 6th have to be edited out for John.
April 14, 2021
John Kerry recently met Russiaās foreign secretary, he did not talk about build up with Ukraine he wanted and talked about climate change!! We read articles about extracts on Hunter Bidenās laptop, etc ed.
Why worry about Ukraine? Germany still going ahead with new gas line from Russia making it even more than 52% dependent on energy from Russia! France and Germany discussing Chinese virus vaccine with Russia. Would you be scared or bothered about NATO if you were Russia?
Germany and France have considerably and deliberately undermined NATO. France calls it a basket case and Germany still does not pay its āfair shareā or ācommitmentsā!
etc ed
April 14, 2021
Hope
But to quote from President Trump at the time, but they still want us to defend them against Russia, whilst refusing to pay their fair share into Nato, but are continually paying Billions to Russia for fossil fuels.
Cake and eat it, or double standards, springs to mind !
April 14, 2021
Should be deducted from alleged EU divorce bill!
April 14, 2021
@Hope: “John Kerry recently met Russiaās foreign secretary, he did not talk about build up with Ukraine he wanted and talked about climate change!!”
Best you check who does what within Biden’s administration before making another fool of yourself. John Kerry was the United States Secretary of State (responsible for foreign policy) in Obama’s presidency, currently he has a Climate brief. The current Secretary of State is Antony Blinken.
As for stolen laptops, you do realise anyone with a little knowledge and the correct software can create new files with custom attributes, such as creation dates and author etc, meaning the presence of a file does not prove ownership nor when it was created? Be very careful when trying to repeat what might turn out to be another persons lie.
April 15, 2021
Jerry,
Drivel again.
April 15, 2021
@Hope; So just what did I post that is “drivel”, please be specific…
April 14, 2021
For 4 years Trump didn’t get into any armed conflict around the world.
Within weeks the Democrats are sabre rattling.
I’m sure soon the good people of America will wonder how sleepy Joe got elected.
April 14, 2021
Actually they were bombing. Biden has attacked both abroad and at home. He probably does … you know, … welll. Not know the difference …. āsalute the militaryā š³
April 14, 2021
Yes, many commentators stressed that the geopolitics during the Trump administration made conflict highly unlikely so the avoidance of war was inevitable.
What changed in three months? Or did Putin and others not dare mess with President Trump.
April 14, 2021
Was there no armed conflict during the Trump era because potential belligerants knew how he might react. Conversely do they suspect that there is little substance behind Bidens stance. It is very important that Putin knows where the line is drawn because China is working itself up to exploit any detected weakness. Not a time for wrong or confusing messages.
April 14, 2021
Ian,
Not sabre rattling it bombed Syria under specious grounds in the first month of Biden. Bear in mind when Syria crossed Obamaās alleged red lines he did nothing- Biden was his Vice President.
In stark contrast Trump warned if Syria if it used gas on people it would take action, Russia threatened US not to do so, but Trump followed through on what he said.
April 14, 2021
Perhaps Putin’s threat worked – Trump didn’t do more than he wanted and even informed Putin what he would do which was very little.
April 14, 2021
In 2017 Trump launched a missile strike on a Syrian airbase – with a number of casualties.
In 2020 he launched a drone strike on Iraq – assassinating an Iranian general. Iranās response was a mission strike in which a passenger jet was mistakenly shot down killing nearly 200 people on board.
Trump liked to tell his supporters he never took military action. It isnāt true but then nor is most of what he said and some people are still silly enough to believe him.
April 14, 2021
And Obama….?
April 15, 2021
@Peter2; Your point being what (other than trying to deflect attention), Andy was replying to the incorrect comment that Trump had never carried out such activities in his four year term at the White House. No one has ever suggested Obama did not carry out military actions/interventions, after all Obama did what Bush Jnr failed to do…
April 15, 2021
My point which I’m surprised you failed to get Jerry, is that Andy criticises President Trump for a few targeted attacks whereas President Obama got America involved in large scale military actions.
President Trump reduced these involvement and reduced tensions in the Middle East and in Korea.
But Andy hates Trump and loves Obama.
April 15, 2021
@Peter2; “President Trump reduced these involvement and reduced tensions in the Middle East and in Korea.”
No he did not reduced tensions, quite the opposite, see my reply to NickC (below), but thanks for reminding us of Trumps other failed policy, his appeasement towards North Korea, another DPRK missile test only last mouth…
April 14, 2021
Ian, True, Trump was an excellent PotUS both for the US and for the rest of the world. Whilst showing that the USA was no pushover by taking low key military action (especially for a global superpower), he avoided starting any new wars, unlike previous administrations. It seemed to me that MAGA was as much a foreign policy, as a domestic one.
April 15, 2021
@NickC; Only someone who is totally blinkered would describe Trump “an excellent PotUS”, China and Iran walked all over his economic and foreign polices, whilst the Taliban and Russia [1] walked all over his lack of effective military policy/action. The only countries who felt an trepidation due to Trump was Cuba, Mexico and Venezuela, hardly big fish, not even as proxies!
[1] in Syria, and Europe, Trumps comments and attitude towards NATO and the European theatre has likely emboldened Russia
April 15, 2021
Don’t agree Jerry
President Trump put economic pressure on China with threats of sanctions and he put tariffs on their imports and removed America from Obama’s truly dreadful nuclear deal with Iran.
He was also correct to warn NATO nations that unless they started to pay in what they promised that America would reduce their funding.
April 16, 2021
@Peter2; Those Trump sanctions towards China probably did more harm to the US than they damaged China, because despite all of Trumps rhetoric he never actually modernised the USA, nor got it back to work, back making what was otherwise being imported, in fact I think you’ll find unemployment actually rose during (the pre CV19 period of) his presidency!
As for Iran, what is so terrible about being part of an international agreement with Iran that stopped Iran moving towards having a viable nuclear weapon? Trump weakened NATO by threatening to de-fund and remove US involvement out of Europe -music to Russian ears.
You need to stop reading websites such as the BNN & FoxNews, or at least read them with a less blinkered attitude towards any other opinion. I say that as someone who until 2016 often lent less than tacit support for UKIP here in the UK [1], watched FoxNews when it was relayed via Sky, supported Trump during and after the 2016 election -and would have voted for him that year, was I a US citizen, but then my support is based on facts, not blind faith.
[1] not that I remained uncritical is they or their leader goofed
April 14, 2021
Pathetic shadow boxing and no doubt we will send a couple of āuselessā pop guns as a virtue signalling exercise to try and show we are one of the big boys and support for Biden. I wish we wouldnāt.
Merkel s sell out re Nordstream and vaccine acquisition shows Putin he can act either impunity.
And in that respect the final sell out of the loss of British lives and billions of pounds wasted as the final capitulation to the Taliban is in sight. Poor equipment/planning/zero understanding of that theatre of war.British politicians truly have blood on their hands.
I wouldnāt have refused to shake hands with Gordon Brown, I would have wiped mine in something filthy then done it.
April 14, 2021
Nigel,
+100
April 14, 2021
Indeed it is all rather depressing.
China sends 25 military jets over Taiwan airspace and beginning the slow destruction Hong Kong.
Meanwhile Boris absurdly Claims “Lockdowns not vaccinations reduced Covid Cases”. So is he being misinformed by “his experts” or does he know the truth and is lying? The lockdown may have delayed a few infections so they were vaccinated in time but to claim as he does is absurd.
April 14, 2021
As vaccines don’t prevent infection (covid cases) it would seem Boris is right – amazing!
April 14, 2021
Dennis, I had understood that the verdict at this stage was the experts are unsure – as in this quote: “The big concern is that the vaccines prevent illness, hospitalisation and death, but won’t sufficiently prevent transmission,” said Peter English, a UK-based consultant in communicable disease control and former chair of the British Medical Association’s Public Health Medicine Committee. So it’s a concern, not a known fact; and “not sufficiently” may not be all, but it’s not none either.
April 14, 2021
Good morning.
Under President Trump there were no new wars only overtures to peace. He made a strong stance against China and the treat that he saw from them.
The West, especially the EU through its Association Agreement has been formeting trouble in the Ukraine and elsewhere and there is now coming some push back. I just hope that we will not be dragged into all this as we were against Syria.
April 14, 2021
And in other news, an experience happening now re the NHS that I usually support.
A family friend with massive back problems in permanent pain on massive p.k.s, now incapable of working to support his young family, told by his Consultant that there us zero chance of finding an appropriate hospital bed in his area maybe for years who wrote to his doctor suggesting an alternative method of finding said bed, only to be put back into the useless system by his surgery, so zero hope.
This has contributed to a massive psychotic episode resulting in total disorientation and now sectioning to a place of care for his and others safety. This was two days ago yet despite this governments bollocks about more investment in mental health, he still does not have a bed and because of peopleās refusal to answer phones or know anything, his wife is unable to find where and how he is.
All we know is two police officers are acting as nurse maids to him to stop him āescapingā in case he harms himself. What an utter waste of police time. Not one bed from Woolwich to Bromley.
As politicians swan around with instant care available this is the real world for one family and for the rest generally in that area, they have to fight to get doctors appointments.
So Sir JR instead of constantly crowing about our vaccine success, albeit richly deserved letās cut the hubris and get back to the contemptible reality.
April 15, 2021
There used to be public assistance for cases like this tragedy: there was a national, Government-funded organisation called the Community Health Council to help and guide people through their issues with the NHS.
It was slaughtered by Alan Milburn, Blair’s SoS for Health, without explanation, and the Conservatives never did anything to replace it.
April 14, 2021
Biden is playing a weak hand. The best we can hope for is that it does not spill over into a wider conflict and that the UK does not get dragged into it.
April 14, 2021
Oldtimer, When it became obvious that Biden had won (either legitimately, or through vote rigging) I predicted that the Democrats would start a war somewhere. I stand by that.
April 14, 2021
Yep, Politicians and religion the two main causes of conflict and wars.
Will no one ever learn, guess not.
April 14, 2021
There was an uneasy truce there with Ukraine effectively a neutral buffer state until the EU (with a British woman as Foreign Affairs minister) started pushing for them to join the EU. Inevitably, Russia, fearful of losing access to its warm water ports, took action. It was inevitable, and any experienced diplomat would have realised that.
April 14, 2021
Yes, if the US was in the position of losing its naval base in the Crimea they would have done the same even if the referendum was against it -would there have been one? The US can do and does exactly what it wants most of the time and cares little about destruction along the way and any public condemnation, if it ever gets that.
April 14, 2021
Like China, Russia views the West as in terminal decline . Apart from the US they see us as unwilling to defend ourselves, here our army is being reduced to a measly 80k , our tank regiments scrapped, and our military officer class more interests in what pronoun our troops refer to each other with than being able to fight. In the US the Biden regime is purging its military ranks of patriots and lowering standards to be more diverse.
If there isn’t the hard power to defend ourselves, there isn’t the moral backbone either , for Russia and China can very easily see how our political class have capitulated to the culture war.
There aren’t the ships, aircraft, guns , soldiers or political fibre to defend ourselves, so what better time for a despot to take advantage of our parlous state?
April 14, 2021
What kind of attack are you thinking might come that we need to defend against? Some occupying army or what? Some military attack destroying the country for what profit? Please advise – thanks.
April 14, 2021
Dennis, The military attack I fear is most likely is China attacking Taiwan. The middle east and Ukraine are two other hotspots. Each such war would have very serious repercussions for the UK.
April 15, 2021
Iain Moore was asking about the defence of the UK not Taiwan etc.
April 14, 2021
Here we go again. There’ll be tears at bedtime. I hope we stay out of it but I doubt it. Perhaps if more people in power had a heart and could see the devastation wars cause to families they would lay off. Alas, that’s never going to happen. Other than that I can’t comment on something I know little about.
April 14, 2021
Florence Nightingale would not be best pleased.
The issue of creeping Russian influence likely to cause another war! (Already fighting in Ukraine?).
Doubt if sheād be too thrilled re those āpop upā hospitals named after her.
And as for the admission on the front of the Telegraph today….āA Quarter of Covid deaths not caused by the virus…..ā
( As many have been saying in this column).
If Putin has not destroyed his economy in the name of the āflu he will be laughing up his sleeve at the self immolation of the āfree Westā!!
April 14, 2021
This issue would never have surfaced under Trump, simply because he was a good chess player and knew how to take a problem off boiling point, and indeed fix it. Biden has no clue about diplomacy and will just accelerate and make worse any conflicts.
No doubt the UK would get drawn in as well!
The west have used Russia too many times, to divert attention from bad domestic situations, and they always think Russia should capitulate without any consideration for the Russian viewpoint.
As a leader Putin has done far more to stabalise his country than he is given credit for, and he does what any decent leader should do to protect his country, unlike so many in the west.
Russia always let it be known that they needed the security of satellite countries around them and access to sea ports, for it’s own security. The west ignores this while eating away at Putin’s Russian credibility.
I don’t think this is a case of Putin testing a new US president – I see it as Putin standing up to bullying attempts.
No doubt the EU is involved here somewhere – Not so long ago certain members of the EU parliament were keen to provoke a ‘Russian spring’ and worked to this effect — The Russian people rightly understood where they were better off, but this act of war against Russia demonstrated how childish, ill informed and irrational some in the west are.
April 14, 2021
And admitting the Ukraine to NATO adds no value to our security, in fact the opposite by riling Putin. Please resist it.
April 14, 2021
Putin is a thug.
He is desperate to undermine western democracy as we saw in the way he manipulated both the 2016 presidential election in the US and the Brexitists.
He poisons his opponents, he refuses to relinquish power and he uses force against his opponents.
Nobody wants war. But the US and its ally, the EU, need to stand up to this thug and help protect Ukraine.
Nobody cares what Little England thinks. Maybe you can try really hard to export fish instead.
April 14, 2021
And what do you suppose is the likelihood of the EU ‘standing up’ to either Russia or China, Andy? Why would anyone in Lisbon – or for that matter, Edinburgh – give a damn about who Ukraine belongs to in this particular era?
(No, don’t mention Nordstream, shush, keep quiet…)
April 14, 2021
If Putin was the US president you would be praising his policies.
April 14, 2021
That comment deserves some sort of prize for stupidity.The idea that things depend on what an individual country “thinks” ended in 1939, if not earlier.
The entire point of the World we live in today is that things depend on alliances like NATO, how they make decisions, how they preserve western solidarity, and how they support one another.
This obsession with twisting every discussion round into an excuse for dissing the UK is a two hundred year old Irish tradition, but it’s as dumb today as it was back then. Rescue your own banks, protect your own shipping and patrol your own skies, and then you can mock “little england”. Parasitic free-loading on other countries’ power and resources is not a very good basis for criticism of the UK who help to pay your bills.
April 14, 2021
Excellent. We can be excused the military nonsense.
April 14, 2021
“This the west says was not properly monitored and supervised by the international community, so is not accepted by the West. It was a Russian annexation.”
I do not recollect you discussing the standards of monitoring and supervision of the 2020 American presidential election. Do you believe that “the West” can easily demonstrate what proper monitoring and supervision looks like, with reference to that election?
You did write the following on the subject of the American vote:
“the world sees a substantial margin of votes…for Mr Biden who will now act as President elect and be generally accepted as such. Only if Mr Trump publishes convincing evidence of substantial voter fraud…will the present indicative result be overturned.”
Do you think that “the West’s” refusal to accept the Crimea vote should be subject to the same conditions that you wrote about with regard to the overturning of the American vote?
Reply I have set out the two sides. I have chosen not to express a personal view
April 14, 2021
Silly questions. Nothing really depends on Putin’s fake votes. For people like Putin, a referendum is just the paper wrapping you put around your aggression.
April 14, 2021
Russia invaded the sovereign state of Georgian annexing the region of Ossetia in 2008 and we did nothingā¦cant even remember what sanctions our government placed upon them ā they got away with it
Russia invaded the sovereign state of Ukraine annexing the region of Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and we did nothingā¦again cant even remember what sanctions our government upon them ā they got away with it
Russia again are in the prelude to invading the eastern region of Ukraine 2021 and we will do nothingā¦ theyāll get away with it
Russia again are in the prelude to invading the northern region of Kazakhstan 2021 and we will nothingā¦ theyāll get away with it
Lets be honest the UN and NATO are big bureaucracies with no power and should be disbandedā¦..maybe another letter from the Foreign Office
April 14, 2021
We also did nothing when the Soviets invaded Afghanistan – at least not directly. Eventually they left of their own accord.
Putin won’t live forever and guerrilla action may continue in these regions until the Russians withdraw.
For the West to take military action in support of Ukraine, a much divided country, would be very problematic.
Once bullets fly, the wrong people die.
April 14, 2021
The population of Crimea was altered under Catherine and, more recently, under Stalin. Crimean Tatars were moved out and Russians moved in. Such resettlement increased the pro-Russian population and provides the reason or excuse for Russia to intervene to protect their interests. Eastern Ukraine is something of an extension replay.
April 14, 2021
I understand that since the Crimea fiasco, NATO has supplied a good deal of weaponry and training to the Ukrainian army and that they are now a much more powerful force to be reckoned with than they were then.
April 14, 2021
‘…NATO has supplied a good deal of weaponry and training to the Ukrainian army…’ I wonder what would be said if Russia did the same in Cuba, Venezuela etc., etc….
Also what would be said if Russia later extended the Warsaw Pact to the borders of West Berlin, and all the other old Eastern borders?
April 14, 2021
Let us recall with regret that the U.K. joined Russia and the U.S.A. in giving security assurances against threats or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine (and Belarus and Kazakhstan) per the agreements signed (for us by Major) in 1994 known as the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances that inter alia saw Ukraine relinquish its nuclear arsenal.
Let us hope fervently that commenter Andy above is for once correct that no-one cares what England thinks and we can get away with exporting fish rather than fighting a war.
April 14, 2021
Very depressing to have a warmonger back in the White House.
April 14, 2021
After the so called election in the good old US of A we can no longer try to take the moral high ground
on what is a free and fair election. That bird has flown.
April 14, 2021
I have reached the point where I don’t give a toss what happens in the rest of the world. I just want our government to concentrate on being able to defend these beautiful islands against any would be invader.
So, the bigger our nuclear deterrent the better, as far as I am concerned.
April 14, 2021
Mike, we should heed the words of Marcus Tullius Cicero :-
“A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself”.
We have more than the Russians to worry about.
April 14, 2021
Yes, we have seventeen million dragging this country down into the mire.
Just look how far it has gone since their “victory”.
April 15, 2021
FFS Martin in Cardiff. Give it rest. You lost.
This is nothing to do with Brexit….. unless you believe that our leaving the EU was the trigger for the accidental release of SARS-CoV2?
April 15, 2021
MiC
Mire?…a reducing trade deficit with the EU, UK growth increasing, queues at Calais…not happened, pound v dollar and euro predicted by remainers to go into free fall…never happened, empty shelves in supermarkets predicted by remainers…never happened.
April 15, 2021
G Wheatley – so true. We have MANY treacherous individuals within.
April 14, 2021
As usual no one points out that the Crimea was once part of Russia and given to Ukraine by a president of the USSR who was Ukrainian. A political gesture at the time as it made no real difference to the Navel Base ( and it’s people) as still controlled from Moscow. The East of Ukraine has a population which may be classed as ethnic Russians.
The West of Ukraine is made up of ethnic Ukrainians . The classic divided country.
It did not help that the Ukrainian government ,which illegally overthrow the Moscow leaning Government, banned the Russian Language from general use. But the West thinks that’s OK too .
West Ukraine and the Government are viewed in the East as not too far removed from being very extreme right wing with throw backs to WW2 and support for Hitler. The West will support any corrupt government as long as it is anti-Russia, and supports it’s commercial aims and not just military aims. What the people want does not matter. Democracy goes out the window if it does not agree with the West’s thinking.
You could now trust a Russian Government more than the current American Government not to start WW3. We no longer have the excuse of being in the EU, so the UK should try and become the peace makers here and not take sides. Putin is no Saint but he got Russia back on it’s feet. There was a time when the West could have brought Russia into the European Grouping even part of NATO . But we would no longer have an enemy to blame.
April 15, 2021
And, as I understand it, a million Russians lost their lives in the Crimea in WW2.
April 14, 2021
With the world in complete disarray over a pLandemic, what better time to invade your neighbour?
To quote a certain Labour MP at the time of 9/11 – “a good day to bury bad news”.
April 14, 2021
I think that the real criterion of success or failure for Putin is whether he can get Ukraine done without a strong reaction from NATO. For that, there are really three issues. Can he get a significant insurrection going inside Ukraine so that he can present his moves as peace-keeping? Can he muddy the waters inside the West enough to keep western reactions divided, and can he create a significant pro-Russia movement inside the West? Can he persuade NATO that the dangers of a general war if they oppose him are worse than the longer-term dangers of allowing him to bring Ukraine back into his area of influence?
And if he is careful to create his fake insurrection first and make it a significant “problem” for the West, and then limit his moves to the Southern part of Ukraine, on the Black Sea coast, he can probably do this. At that point he gets Ukraine, Turkey is mostly gone as well, and he also becomes a much more significant player in the Middle East, a Russian ambition since the days of the Byzantine empire.
April 15, 2021
“Russia is closing the strategic Kerch Strait in the Black Sea for warships and state ships of foreign countries from next week until October 2021, closing off the Ukrainian ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk to traffic” – source Interfax Ukraine
April 16, 2021
Russia is entitled to Crimea for reasons of popular sentiment but Russian leaning citizens in eastern Ukraine are geographically dispersed. Ukraine should not cede sovereignty or policing rights there but instead recognise Russian as a second language and permit variation of the history curriculum.
The whole situation would be easier to negotiate if Putin were to be deposed; the simplest way to do this is to get his people to depose him. Russia is a kleptocracy and Putin and his associates are the ringleaders of the thieves. They have stolen billions from the Russian people and much of it is invested in London. We should publish full chapter and verse of the assets they hold and their value and ensure that the information is supplied to every Russian citizen over and over again, using all available media and communications channels.