The world trading system is not functioning as well as it used to. What began as a result of shut downs of factories and shops from anti covid policies pursued in many countries has morphed into a more complex set of problems getting in the way of smooth continuous supply.
There are too many container ships sitting off California. China from time to time shuts down significant capacity at one or more of its major container ports to tackle another covid outbreak. There is a shortage of empty containers returning to the big exporting countries like China and Germany in time to be filled promptly with new orders.
There is a surprising shortage of people willing to take jobs in many places, despite the shock to employment brought on by covid lockdowns. We have discussed recently the shortage of truck drivers in many countries, where pay and conditions of employment have not proved attractive enough to recruit a new generation of enough people to do the job.
Individual materials and components have been forced into shortages by large expansions of demand. Microprocessors are the most obvious.The Ā surge in demand for all things digital combined with the wish of the motor industry to turn a car into a kind of smartphone on wheels to induce a big shortage of chips . Timber was suddenly very scarce as housebuilding took off in several places. Oil went dearer as OPEC restrained the supply whilst demand picked up.
Central Banks assure us this will all be temporary and inflation will soon subside. The danger is if Banks keep on printing too many yen dollars and euros they will keep price pressures on. There is also some signs that lockdowns have lost us some capacity amongst the self employed and small businesses that serve us so well. Governments need to be more attentive to the ease of setting up or re opening small businesses so we tackleĀ more of the shortages.
September 5, 2021
Whilst I agree that this is a problem ,I hope,Sir John ,that you and your fellow backbenchers will be vigorous in opposing the possible increase in NIC ?
It is time that you stood up and got the 1922 Committee to say ‘enough is enough’:
The proposed increase in Corporation Tax
The planning law changes
The Increase in NIC
Cutting HS2 would give the government plenty of spare cash.The NHS needs major reform not more cash
Boris has served his purpose getting Brexit done and seeing us through the pandemic. It is time for a change
We need a PM of vision and conviction with a strategy, not a bumbling lurch from one spending commitment to another
I have resigned my membership of the Conservative Party. You are now in danger of losing my vote as well
Reply I have made clear my disagreement with an NIC rise. None is yet proposed.
September 5, 2021
Dear David–It is so easy to talk about the need for “major reform” of the NHS, and plenty do, but very hard to discern what that reform should be. It may be that, like it or lump it, the way the NHS is now is the best that it can be. Any idea of making the NHS cheaper is of course fanciful. Rather, any “reform” is likely to mean simply throwing money at areas where the NHS could be improved, which is not reform at all and which in any event would cost a fortune.
September 5, 2021
Dear Leslie
Thank you
It maybe that you know the NHS far better than I do but I worked with it for 45 years as a supplier and I can tell you that there are many things that could be done to make it perform better, more efficient and cost less
The waste is prodigious
September 5, 2021
Dear David–Thank you and I hope you are right but somebody needs to spell uut what these “many things” are, together with some sort of action plan. In the nicest possible way, perhaps you yourself could list a few. My point was simply that one never sees set out the various opinions on what should be done so that a dialectic can be set going to get closer to the answer–if as I said there is indeed an answer–one that is worth the seemingly inevitable disruption caused by changes similar to those the NHS has gone through periodically every few years as I have seen in my own experience latterly as an NHS Auditor. One would go back in for the next audit to find that everything, especially Manuals, but the very buildings themselves, at enormous cost, had changed.
September 5, 2021
We should start by identifying the personality characteristics of the CEOs of the few ( 2or 3 ) well run trusts and use that information to find effective CEOs elsewhere
There are many jobsworth roles on Trust Boards. There are Trusts with CEos, Deputy CEOs. Chief Op[erating officers for example .A template should be created for the Board size and composition
Managers should be appointed using the same techniques and the layers and numbers of managers culled
Terms & Conditions of Employment for non clinical staff are absurd. 6 weeks paid holiday ; 10 days gratis sick leave ( which is then taken as more leave)
Wasteful use of equipment : crutches, walking sticks and frames are not returned and recycled . Waste of dressings, drugs
Far too much single use equipment is used when reusable alternatives exist and the nHS runs some 200 sterile service centres which can process them
Operating Theatres could be used more intensively especially as o many operations are now performed as Day Cases
How is that for a start ?
September 5, 2021
The NHS as it is now is far from the best it could be.
No other country that provides universal healthcare follows our model. To re-invent from scratch what is now a system so complex that no individual could fully understand how it works would be, as you suggest, a mammoth task which might never deliver effective results . On the other hand there are plenty of examples of systems that deliver far better healthcare than our own, and we should look to absorb the lessons that they can teach.
Foremost amongst these should be that the NHS needs to be driven by its patients’ requirements (out of hours provision of care such as GP surgeries being the most obvious example) instead of around the preferred working patterns of its staff.
September 5, 2021
Morning Leslie. The reform required by the NHS is to move to fixed price charging. Each Trust may invoice the adapter for each procedure and interaction delivered at a fixed price worked out to cover labour admin and infrastructure in the same way motor garages and private hospitals operate. And only for those proven to be entitled to the service.
The covenant that the taxpayer will have to make is to have an changeable hypothecated tax to cover the previous year’s charges. In the first year this should not increase overall taxation but may well in subsequent years.
September 5, 2021
Leslie, I have said this before regarding the NHS and its organisation and management:
Think about how major international airports are run – 1000s of staff on the ground, 1000s of strangers to the system (passengers, often not at their best) to be handled, 1000s of strict national and international rules and regulations to adhere to, a constant flow of large and potentially very dangerous machines both on the ground and in the air, demanding access and egress and requiring maintenance/servicing, timetables that may be altered with little or no notice because of weather or terrorist threats – if all that is manageable without constant disasters and major failings, then the NHS could surely learn some lessons?
September 5, 2021
There are many ways savings could be made in the NHS. For a start tackle the chronic rate of sick leave. Secondly, get rid of the non-jobs like diversity managers. Thirdly start charging foreigners for using the service.
This government shies away from cost-cutting reforms and constantly hits the hard-pressed taxpayers.
September 5, 2021
Christine. The unions don’t help with any changes. As per normal in the public sector nobody can lose their job.
September 5, 2021
The NHS should be about caring for sick people, not making political statements. Remove all the box ticking exercises that have nothing to do with actual patient health.
Mass savings could be made by reducing the multi layers of management. Why does the NHS need so many ‘managers’? To further reduce costs, they could start by getting rid of all the diversity, climate change and various other obscure named positions. For example why do hospitals need a “Sales & Events Executive” or a “Marketing Executive”? The list is endless.
September 5, 2021
‘The NHS should be about caring for sick people’.
Are you sure? Not much evidence around me, but lots of people in various stages of distress over ignored, postponed, complications, repeated pre-ops to do with known serious ailments. Even approaching a GP/Surgery is still like picking locks to get into GCHQ. Automated phone response to go away, call back, long wait in a queue that then cuts calloff, metal barriers to access guarded by the possible daughter/grandaughter of the SS guards.
But the hundreds of thousands/millions? – all on full pay.
September 5, 2021
MT
A friendās wife in the next road had a perforated ulcer and was in agony and it took the ambulance 4 hours to arrive to take her into the ICU in Bath, so much for our wonderful NHS!
September 5, 2021
I suggest a major improvement in the NHS would be to reduce its scope. Introduce a company opt out scheme, with the NHS replaced with private healthcare and with a tax rebate to reflect the reduction of NHS load. The opt out scheme would need to be comprehensive to qualify, and not subject to the exclusions private healthcare insurance usually comes with.
I’d say too that the treatment of lifestyle diseases should be paid for by the individual and not a burden on the state.
Shrink the NHS to reduce its waste.
September 5, 2021
David Peddy
Agreed a PM with vision and conviction we have not had for years.
Too many possible candidates are banished to the back benches.
September 5, 2021
The addiction of all political parties to so-called “green remedies” for supposed disastrous man made global warming must be added to the mix. We have only scratched the surface of the impact that they will have. This will be to reduce those western countries that actually stick with the programmes to third world destitution. Russia, China and others have no intention of crippling their economies this way, still less of paying any attention to the west which has discredited itself and its causes by the abject, incompetent manner of its exit from Afghanistan. UK governments, including the current Johnson version, have been far too busy and arrogant telling other people and countries what to do. They need to focus on the needs of people here in the UK and to abandon fantasy measures that will beggar the nation.
September 5, 2021
Indeed so. I find the current surging energy prices for gas and electricity deeply worrying. Day ahead power for tomorrow sold for over Ā£220/MWh, higher that the depths of last winter’s windless cold spell in early January. Carbon prices are now above Ā£53/tonne CO2, and gas is knocking on 140p/therm. Our prices are running at a substantial premium to Europe’s because with the loss of nuclear and coal capacity, and it seems CCGT capacity too we do not have enough even wtih interconnector imports and it’s not even winter. Centrica were reported in the FT to be expecting industry to have to cut production because they will not be able to afford the electricity prices. It seems highly probable that several energy retailers will be bankrupted by prices far in excess of those allowed for in the OFGEM cap, and consumers can expect the bill in six months time when the cap is revised.
September 5, 2021
‘It is time for a change’
– To who?! Our Tory Party is a bit f****d (but not nearly as bad as Labour or Liberals) – at best, our Tory Party is nothing more than mediocre.
I’m not really hearing any great, interesting, inspiring Conservative vision for our GREAT country from the Tory Party (that covers strong culture / broad cultural values not just money / economics – not forgetting that real, stable long-term economic success depends on strong culture and broad, cultural values). Meanwhile the Western World – and the UK with it – is going quickly into decline, whilst China quickly catches up, and will probably take over before long.
September 5, 2021
One of the huge problems that politicians don’t talk about is that Marriage is quickly disappearing. Young people today don’t want to develop the hard skills needed to get married. Without marriage and strong marriage, society unravels. Everything unravels. People go on about Hs2 or whatever (and I agree, Hs2 is a waste of money) but it’s nothing compared to the HUGE problems in our society which is bringing down our Western Civilisation (let alone the UK).
(Instead of helping the institution of traditional marriage, what do the ‘modern’ Tories do, they introduce gay marriage – UNBELIEVABLE).
But Marriage – the institution of (or lack of) is only one of many serious issues destroying the fabric of our civilisation in the West. And with this fabric gone, you just end up with chaos: in the economy, crime, bad mental and physical health costing the NHS billions and billions, destroying productivity and so on.
Sorry it what I write is uncomfortable. But it’s the TRUTH so don’t really feel bad at all about saying so.
September 6, 2021
Seems illogical to lament the lack of focus on marriage but complain when the same structure is offered to others who were previously denied. You’d think you’d be in favour of marriage for everyone and the benefits it brings for stability, personal security, mental health etc.
September 5, 2021
People may think you are joking about China taking over the UK but I heard on talk radio this morning that a Chinese billionaire business man is the main shareholder in all the Uk utility companies- I was shocked and disgusted to hear this and will obviously do my own research to check it out. If true why has this been allowed to happen. Apparently his return on his investments is circa 18% which I understand is not reinvested back into the utility companies but taken back to China!!
September 5, 2021
Did you see the SNP politician advocating mortgaging Scotland to China? he thought it was a way of financing independence.
September 5, 2021
@Jasper,
Although China is politically a Communist country, culturally it’s still richly Confucian / Taoist – people with strong work ethic and goals to escape the hard times of the past. And there’s 1.3 billion of them … Meanwhile, we in the UK and West in general are experiencing a social / cultural crisis – and crisis of civilisation – brought on by yes, socialism, but also by social liberalism / feminism / postmodernism. It’s really serious. We can have lots of debates about HS2 etc (and I support the views of most people here against HS2) but HS2 and so on are pretty irrelevant when the very fabric of our culture / civilisation in the West is unravelling rapidly before our eyes.
September 7, 2021
Some good stuff there, Ed I’d say, but don’t you think that the American religion that the UK and others have imported and followed – with the Zeal Of The Convert – is the more problematic? That is, Egoistic Individualism?
I think that you’re barking up the wrong tree with socialism, which is little more than Applied Christianity after all.
On the other hand, it’s interesting, and I think significant, that those countries which have done the best against covid 19 are those to whose people the dissolution of the self is a philosophical ideal, the Buddhists etc. (or those who were willing to learn from them, such as New Zealand.)
September 5, 2021
bet he doesn’t pay any tax
September 6, 2021
I would be very interested in hearing our host’s view on this, and other extensive foreign ownership of what were UK assets, together with what should be done about it.
September 5, 2021
Iām not a conservative, I have previously lent them my vote as the least bad option. No more. I think they need some time in the wilderness to rethink their policies and approach.
September 6, 2021
If you are hoping for celebration, as in the Prodigal Son, forget it!
September 7, 2021
They did that during 1997-2010.
It simply made them more vehemently determined than ever – whatever that took – that they would never be out of power for that long again.
Ideologically they seem worse than ever, but with even fewer scruples as to methods.
There was a bit of window-dressing about the “nasty party”, “big society” etc. but there was no substance to any of this.
September 7, 2021
Seems voters like the Conservatives.
Labour’s worst election result since 1935.
September 5, 2021
What the Conservative Party needs is a true king (in Jungian sense) instead of shadow kings. A true leader with a comprehensive vision for this country: from how to support and grow (along with people outside politics):
1) The institutions of Marriage and Family (which creates strong stability in our country)
2) To turn our young men into real men, and young women into real women (currently under attack from feminism and other social liberal isms).
3) Work Ethic (and greatly increased Productivity).
4) Patriotism and sense of Public Duty (including being responsible for self and relying on family instead of state in hard times)
5) The spirit of Entrepreneurship (and creating the great high tech / digital companies of the future)
6) Proper useful Education (instead of say 2/3 of university being a waste of time)
7) Building up strong Arts (why doesn’t the ‘modern’ world create Mozarts, Bachs, Shakespeares etc – and strong arts is connected with strong economy and people being culturally enriched and happy as well as patriotism)
8) Strong Military
9) All the above will lead to happier people which will reduce mental and physical ill health, saving the NHS billions.
10) All the above will save the tax payer billions and billions, with tax ending up as low as 20% and less.
This is TRUE CONSERVATISM. We need a TRUE CONSERVATIVE leader to meet the great challenges of the modern world and in the Western World in particular – and as China quickly catches up and soon on verge of taking over.
So a leader with vision and PASSION. A true Conservative leader. A true king (in Jungian sense of word).
September 5, 2021
The Flu Act allows for changes in NI payments without an Act of Parliament and without actuarial scrutiny.
If that if correct what is this utter pantomime all about?
Johnson will renew the Flu Act and go ahead with the NI changes and not have to explain the figures nor get parliamentary approval.
Maybe he has already set it in train?
Backbench rebellion.
My Aunt Fanny!
September 5, 2021
The Covid Act allows for changes in NI payments without actuarial scrutiny or parliamentary approval.
Kept that quiet didnāt they?
September 5, 2021
Oh my goodnessā¦and Iāve just read that some provisions of the Act are permanent!! Not the NI bit though so MPs could get rid of it.
I hope to goodness I got the permanent bit wrong!!
September 7, 2021
Only permanent until Parliament decided otherwise, like everything else.
September 5, 2021
Good morning.
You can couple all this with the closing of the Suez Canal and the interruption to international trade.
What all this shows is how interdependent we ALL are on one another for all manner of things and how important it is to have one or more sources plus, some indigenous supply. The latter does not have to be much but it must be enough so as to cover any shortfall dues to natural or man made disasters / events.
Glocalism seeks to get whatever, from wherever at the cheapest price and, whilst we all have benefitted from that we have seen recently that there are downsides.
September 5, 2021
Was “glocalism” a deliberate portmanteau word?
September 6, 2021
Whether some claim that the problems are mainly due to the pandemic, it’s impossible to see how brexit could be of any help whatsoever.
Marks and Spencer has warned of a range of looming problems for food supplies when Brexit rules change next month.
It has written to suppliers saying that UK and EU governments are not ready for a new wave of bureaucracy due when a grace period on import checks ends.
New rules mean that lorry drivers importing goods need some 700 pages of documents.
The changes are the latest potential threat to supply chains which are already under stress due to shortages of lorry drivers and of other staff.
In a letter to suppliers, first reported by the Times, M&S set out a wide range of problems, including a lack of vets for essential checks, governments’ unpreparedness – in some cases having not translated the rules into local languages – while it says that some authorities “do not appear to know what will be required”.
It also says that officials in some EU member states only work standard office hours from Monday to Friday, which are not going to be able to keep pace with the 24/7 pace of cross border trade.
M&S say that EU markets represent over 25% of all UK food imports, adding “If we don’t see a more common sense approach to compliance, then this is going to hurt everyone involved”.
What, John, are you in a position to do about engendering this “common sense” approach by people in the European Union?
September 8, 2021
Ah, we got there in the end John.
September 5, 2021
Indeed.
You rightly say “Governments need to be more attentive to the ease of setting up or re opening small businesses so we tackle more of the shortages”.
Alas governments and the Boris/Carrie/Sunak/Javid one in particular has an agenda clearly designed to tax, inconvenience, boss about and over regulate businesses as much as they possibly can. Almost Sunak’s first act was to cut entrepreneur’s CGT relief by 90% (this even before Covid) he persists with the hugely damaging IR35, endless serial attacks on landlord’s, Ā£15K increases in stamp duty, large increases in Corp. Taxes, the making tax digital agenda, huge delays & incompetence with DVLA and HGV tests and now it seems they are to rat on their manifesto promises on NI/Income Tax/VAT levels and on the triple lock.
Robert Buckland calls for a grown up conversation on these tax/NI increases. No please can we have a grown up conversation on the endless waste in government that we see almost everywhere in government. Ā£35 billion(?) on Test and trace, Ā£100 billion on HS2, the absurd Net Zero climate/alarmist lunacy Ā£trillions, the appalling performance of the state monopoly NHS, the many virtually worthless degrees they fund, the huge cost of illegal immigration, the Ā£76K jobs in the NHS to push the woke diversity agenda (a salary nearly three times the pay of junior doctor who have trained for six years and have large student debts to repay).
A grown up conversation on why we have the highest taxes for seventy years yet are still borrowing hugely and despite this public services are so very poor and generally declining. Let’s discuss things like this perhaps for a change Mr Buckland.
September 5, 2021
+1
September 5, 2021
Another great post L/L
September 5, 2021
And your government is going to tax us even more. When is the bottomless pit that is NHS going to be stopped.
September 5, 2021
I think that we need to hypothecate taxation one-step further, splitting NI, with one charge for ‘welfare’ and another for ‘health-care’. That would concentrate the minds of an electorate that has bought into the idea of throwing money at the NHS.
P.S. BTW, I don’t pay NI, because I am retired. (My first, and so far only, prescription after passing 60 was free.) Being very comfortably off, I’ll concede that that’s grossly unfair on younger tax-payers.
September 5, 2021
The Treasury is expecting this year, Ā£198 billion in Income Tax and Ā£146 billion in NICs. It will fund on average for each household circa Ā£5,500 for the NHS, but only Ā£500 for Adult Social Care. The National Insurance Fund (NIF) finished fiscal 2019/20 with Ā£37 billion in the bank! Perhaps the NIF could be extended to include a National Adult Care Service to go with the NHS and the Benefits payments part of the DWP?
September 5, 2021
Acorn, how many more people use the NHS than use Adult Social Care? I would presume it is more than 11x the number from birth to death using our NHS over using social care.
The National Insurance Fund should not be used for anything that it wasnāt intended to fund. Government has already passed the cost of sick pay on to employers, all employers even those with only 1 or 2 staff, it is a big and often unexpected amount going on for 28 weeks (often longer if someone comes back for seven weeks and goes off again) and includes sick holiday pay it soon mounts up but that was big saving to the National Insurance Fund that used to come out of National Insurance. Dentistry used to be covered fully by National Insurance now it isnāt, Blair passed the buck back to people to pay themselves either through care plans or price per treatment (often also resulting in poorer people simply having their teeth pulled out!). Opticians used to be provided in the NHS another cost passed on and podiatry. Pretty soon if you want to see a GP it will come with a bill otherwise you just get to see the practice nurse and hope for the best. Receptionists now tell you the result of your tests so the GPās donāt have to bother.
What does āNational Adult Careā include? Are you talking about home helps, home visits, care home fees, what else? How much of the money spent is collected from the people receiving the care having to pay into it themselves? What %. Iām getting sick of all this we need more for less all the time.
September 5, 2021
In principle it can’t be right to hypothecate taxation, just as it can’t be right to predetermine Treasury payments for certain things in law, e.g. Foreign Aid. The Chancellor must be responsible for what he spends on what, and answer for it.
September 5, 2021
Only if you are not one of the millions relying on the poorest state support in Europe.
September 5, 2021
The easy answer for all politicians is to throw money at the NHS rather than take the time to establish the causes of the continual problems. One year to wait for an op and one year to wait for a new car – there must be a motto there!
September 6, 2021
but you probably NEED an op – do you really need a new car?
September 5, 2021
It’s not just California. Felixstowe has also been having problems. According to the British International Freight Association congestion at the port means that forwarders are no longer able to return empty containers.
“The operational performance at Felixstowe has been very challenging for some time, but over the last year the issues have escalated to a level that could be disastrous for our members’ businesses, which have already been hard hit by the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic,ā said Robert Keen, director general at BIFA.
According to the Association the self-styled āPort of Britainā is offering an āappalling serviceā that is costing port users money in demurrage, and quay rental costs as well as forcing truck drivers to deliver containers to an off-site container park – increasing costs that forwarders will not be able to pass on to their customers. Not to mention the large number of ships moored up offshore waiting for slots to unload
Is the port of Felixstowe run by civil servants?
September 5, 2021
SG
Your quote by Mr Keen is from a year ago.
September 5, 2021
No surprise. We have a public sector from politicians through to the civil servants etc in the main bereft of talent.
It is shameful that the likes of Sir JR who know the truth stay silent. Leading us further down to tax and waste socialism.
September 5, 2021
John, can you please ask the Port of Felixstowe Directors to respond to these accusations from SG?
September 5, 2021
Checking on the port information shows five vessels at berth and no major queue of vessels to come in at the moment. I did hear on the radio on Thursday that port traffic was at a standstill because of a road accident near the main roundabout access point, but that will have been cleared within a few hours at worst.
September 5, 2021
Your leader is an enthusiastic supporter of what some call green policies. There’s nothing more green than a reduction in global consumption due to shortages and other political events.
The more we consume the larger the pressures are on the Earth’s natural resources as these are the fundamental and primary source of all man-made consumer goods we all use. Less consumption is positive for the environment.
One could argue a global depression would proffer more benefit to the environment than every single policy passed by every single government
John shouldn’t blame the private sector for any of this. If you’re looking for someone to blame then look closer to home. The State, its politicians and its Socialist groupies have all unleashed and supported a collectivist reworking of our world and that stupidity will have untold destructive consequences which will only become apparent in the future
September 5, 2021
+1
Exactly!
We are assured that these so called āconspiracy theoriesā are not true and that there are prosaic reasons for what is happening but the results of government actions dovetail extremely neatly into all the crazy peopleās agendas.
Alcohol.Live sport and entertainment.Travel.Meat.Agriculture.Education and exams.Offices.Christianity ( all religion except the new one?). All now verboten and all neatly ending via the plague.
So what ARE we meant to make of all this? The wholesale destruction of our lives.
Given that the notion that one would close the world for an insignificant virus is total rubbish then is it revenge or panic over Brexit and Trump? Panic over government caused financial crash?
I donāt careā¦just make it stop!
September 5, 2021
Well said as usual Dom.
I have taken active steps to reduce my consumption of non-essentials. It’s my contribution to reducing my demand on the earth’s resources. Happily, it also significantly reduces my contribution to the Treasury for the Communitarians in Government to squander on their idiotic schemes.
I recommend it to others who also do not wish to pay for their profligacy with our money.
September 5, 2021
+1
September 5, 2021
And, again, anyone with half a functioning brain cell would have realised by now that being a massive importing nation is a really, really stupid thing to be.
But we have successive governments obsessed with globalisation – outsourcing production to country with cheaper labour and relying in imported goods.
This is so clearly and obviously stupid – putting us in a vulnerable position – that I despair of our politicians.
September 5, 2021
Do not worry, the Director of the Number 10 Policy Unit between May 1982 and November 1987 will tell you it has nothing to do with him nor with the Government he was part of till April 1992.
September 5, 2021
Agree. It would be totally absurd to blame policies from 30-40 years ago for current problems.
September 6, 2021
Hefner, You need to have a word with your Andy because he thinks it’s all down to Brexit (even though we’ve only got BINO – see the latest farcical threats by Lord Frost).
September 5, 2021
Mike Wilson
+1 Well said Mike bang on the money.
September 5, 2021
Quite. Why is Rosemary and Thyme short in Supermarkets? Indigenous herbs. Similarly Sardines and Mackerel in tins can be fished locally.
September 5, 2021
It’s amazing how Brexit has caused the world’s to falter according to the Brussels Broadcasting Company.
IR35 has played a significant part as well.
September 5, 2021
+1 and the fact that much of the state sector like the NHS, DVLA, border control (huge delays at Heathrow yet they know how many will arrive in advance) and HGV testing is not working competently with large backlogs. Or āworkingā from home perhaps.
September 5, 2021
You are right about IR35. Up to April this year, anyone could set up a company providing contingent workers.
Thanks to the new IR35 rules this is now much more difficult. In practice, this has meant many firms now bring in contingent workers via zero hour contracts type arrangements.
This is less attractive, and as a result many people have retired or decided to do something else. Less people are setting up as self employed.
The result is a shortage of labour at short notice to fill in gaps in supply and demand.
September 5, 2021
If there is a shortage of labour then there really is no justification for an uplift in UC. Seen yesterday on an American website: how a workshy family in a Democratic-governed state could rake in $100K/year.
September 5, 2021
S W
Indeed we will not know how the so called shortage of labour will play out until we get to the end of furlough.
Seems to me rather a lot of people and Companies have abused this very generous scheme.
There will always be some people out of work, but I certainly agree it should never be able to be a lifestyle existence, especially at the expense of those who work and pay their taxes for it.
September 5, 2021
“Just in time” delivery systems, that very name suggests it was always a risky policy.
Now we have a “sorry it’s late” or “better late than never”delivery system.
Why is anyone surprised that we have some chaos after many Countries in the World closed borders, restricted movement, shut down production, sales and warehouse facilities, and ordered people to stay at home.
Will things get back to normal, of course it will, but it will take time, and some products will be more expensive than before, because the suppliers now realise how important and needed they are.
As I have said before, the world is now realising that everyone is a key worker, not just a chosen few, as everything is reliant upon someone else doing their bit.
September 5, 2021
Your last sentence is a pillar of reality that too few properly grasp.
Not only that, but it usually depends on us being able to TRUST them to do those jobs.
In turn that depends greatly on a mutually honourable employer-employee relationship.
September 6, 2021
Wot, no social credit system to ensure compliance, Martin? You do seem to like the centrally planned Chinese communist system normally.
September 7, 2021
Yet another “reply” that appears to have literally nothing to do with my post.
Are you the person on whom Roger Irrelevant in Viz was based?
September 5, 2021
Just in time has never been a risky policy. It has worked just fine for 40+ years. Whilst much trade is returning to normal here it is not – because of Brexit.
You Brexitists have erected massive barriers to trade and imposed a tsunami of pointless red tape on our companies. This is what you have actually done.
Consumers pay for this by having less choice and facing higher costs. The Brexitists told you prices would fall. They lied.
September 5, 2021
Andy – – Just in time has never been a risky policy. It has worked just fine for 40+ years – do you have a fridge freezer? if so WHY. NOT needed. Just in time means you only need enough food to get you to your next meal. Then you fetch just enough to last till the next. Same with fuel for your car – just get enough to get you to the next filling station etc etc. THEN you will be getting everything “JUST IN TIME”.
September 5, 2021
Clearly Andy you have not been in business for 40 years, because I have seen first hand productions lines halted for lack of parts on numerous occasions.
It was only ever conceived to save money on stock piling parts which is expensive, and so the risk of just in time is taken knowing that errors will occur but still be cheaper than stockpiling.
September 6, 2021
@Pandy – I cannot decide which is more laughable, your unparalleled ignorance of the business world or your monomania with Brexit.
JIT was introduced by Toyota in 1938-39, so that’s 80+ years. But it is not suited to all production systems and operations, particularly critical systems which will maintain hot standbys and on-site spares such as telcos and internet operators.
September 6, 2021
Andy, Plain and simple, around 90% of the UK economy (our trade) is with ourselves or with the rest of the world, so cannot be affected by the fact of Brexit (BINO, really). Do you really know so little about economics? Or is it that you have completely succumbed to Remain hysteria?
September 6, 2021
Well young Andy, an early form of JIT was worked by the car companies in the 70s…but our dear friends the reds under the bed would regularly call ‘Everybody out’ and a company I worked for would have a lorry load of parts returned, being refused entry to site. That meant production of parts soon stopped, workers on piece time had wages cut, and admin staff worked hours to deal with catching up after the strike was called off. Nothing was normally gained at the car plant, but people lost wages, eventually lost jobs.
September 5, 2021
It us quite shameful how our shops have just accepted this. After the locusts stripped shelves bare in panic buying last year our supermarkets no longer think empty shelves demonstrates inefficiency and they seem content to leave spaces among the stock.
September 5, 2021
“As I have said before, the world is now realising that everyone is a key worker, not just a chosen few, as everything is reliant upon someone else doing their bit.”
Anyone who has ever participated in a layoff as a manager knows that this simply is not true. About ten percent of staff are key, and the rest are from Central Casting.
September 6, 2021
+10
September 5, 2021
Off Topic
In the Telegraph today there is a wonderful article by Marcus Fysh. He say all the things the readers on this forum have been saying, and so do the articleās reader comments. Talk Radio Spiked online, CapX, GB News and many others have also.
Action is needed urgently! There needs a backbench revolutionā¦ but many more than the current 40 or so conservatives!
September 5, 2021
Yes.
Come on you 40 odd.
A little persuasion in the lobby/bar/library please.
September 5, 2021
All the front page articles of the DT, DM, DE, Sunday Times are kindly reproduced by the BBC, and if you zoom in then you can easily read the entire pages.
There’s no Guardian, Observer, or Independent, however.
I wonder why ever their ex-Tory party official Editor-In-Chief would oversee this?
September 5, 2021
PS, the BBC also instructs us that they are “must see” articles.
September 5, 2021
Trade has been disrupted by Covid. It has also been disrupted by the problems in the Suez Canal. But it has been far more disrupted here than elsewhere. Why?
Brexit.
Why are you all too gutless to admit it?
September 6, 2021
You really are desperate, Andy. The economy hasn’t collapsed because of Brexit (BINO); unemployment hasn’t gone up because of Brexit; 6m EU citizens haven’t opted to go home because of Brexit; there aren’t 55,000 extra Customs officers because of Brexit; Kent is not a lorry park; there is less red-tape because of Brexit (depending on the government slashing EU rules); etc; etc.
There are some disruptions to trade caused by political power jockeying (gas shortage in Europe, courtesy of Putin; China flexing its muscles; etc) and there continues to be production, trade and shipping problems primarily because of stupid untargeted national lockdowns. Which you want more of. Own it, Andy.
September 7, 2021
The ridiculous hyperbole that you wrongly attribute to pro-European Union people was never made.
That is your traducement of their words.
You missed out “WWIII did not start” though, Nick, shame on you.
September 5, 2021
Boris seem to think he can push his tax borrow and piss down the drain, green crap socialism and still win the next election in May 2004(?) as the Labour dog wagged by the SNP will clearly be even worse. But he is trashing the economy and this quite likely to lose. Just as Major lost for 3+ terms after his moronic ERM trashed they economy. Higher tax rates from the current, taxed to death, position will raise less tax not more and damage the economy hugely combined with net zero, HS2 and post Covid it is insane.
September 5, 2021
May 2024!
September 5, 2021
Agreed Sharon, a good article which few genuine Conservatives big or small “c” could argue against.
Shame t6hose Ministers who think differently.
September 5, 2021
“t6hose” should read “on those”
September 7, 2021
Sharon, ā¦ and this Tuesday afternoon the Fysh turned into nothing more than jelly in his interactions with the PM.
September 5, 2021
Dom Cummings has it spot. Borisās weakness and failure to get a grip on Whitehall means all he can do is throw money at any problem.
And the IFG highlights the inconsistency and lack of honesty in government messaging.
September 5, 2021
Difficulties in international trade are probably down to āgreencr*pāand this weird idea of conflating āequitable and fair tradeā with the jab distribution. Donāt ask..I have NO idea.
Probably also to scare us into supporting greencr*p. Planet imploding. ( Ohā¦since they believe there are too many people youād have thought theyād let the plague rip. Instead they want to SAVE us all with jabs! How very odd).
I wonder if shortage of labour is down to folk just not giving a single flying whatsit any more.
I meanā¦even I donāt recycle my rubbish properly such is my p*ssed offness!!
September 5, 2021
One thing you don’t mention are Government’s printing funny money by the trillions. There is always a consequence to that, with the US government about to embark on $4-5-6 trillion of spending, I lose track of it, all paid for by the printing presses.
September 5, 2021
Perhaps we need to go back to the days when goods were transported by rail and then taken from the local railhead to the shops and factories. Driving a lorry short distances locally makes for a lot better life for drivers than long and unpredictable journeys across the continent.
September 5, 2021
This was done during the war when ships were unloaded and the supplies delivered to the US army in southern England within 24 hours, that is I think from inside the ship’s hold to the army camp.
September 8, 2021
Nick c
Everything but Brexit
September 5, 2021
Meanwhile in a country far far away form the one Redwood obviously resides in, people are trying to run businesses and they have to deal with the facts.
The Road Haulage Association is at the moderate end of opinion blaming about half the driver shortage on Brexit. This is compounded by the absence of pickers and sorters which is all Brexit. The miserable UK holiday you have just endured was made so by A the rain and B the absence of hospitality staff due to Brexit. The inflation in the shops is partly Brexit`s affect on supply and partly the overheating of the economy relentlessly supported by one John Redwood causing inflation.
In my professional life our own EEA partners have given up the fight with Brexit bureaucracy only last week – you will start to see these costs passed on soon .
So far, the consumer economy is taking the hit, next services academia research Pharma media , the real UK economy all of which loathed and opposed Brexit.
Naturally we face tax rises having blown the budget on Brexit , look out for your next wage slip , not to say a blight of shoddy development as the Governments desperately tries to use the Construction sector to pump prime the economy . Anything for growth , including, all you “Nativists ” as many from Hong King Afghanistan India and they can get away with .
I hate to say I told you so but aside for Weatherspoons moaning about their suppliers , its about all we have to keep us going
September 5, 2021
The 80,000-100,000 driver shortage is composed of only 15,000 Europeans not come back again. I take it this is the only component that can be ascribed to Brexit, and even then many of them haven’t come back because of Covid rather than Brexit. So nowhere near half. About 30,000 driving tests have been cancelled, twice the Brexit effect.
HGV driving is a tough job not enough people want to do, with an aging workforce that’s not being replaced.
In regard to lorry drivers, all Brexit has really done is expose an existing British problem that cheap labour from Eastern Europe had been massaging.
September 6, 2021
Newmania, You get sillier by the comment. UK GDP growth figures demonstrate that post WW2 we did better out of the EU than in it. Most of the world is not in your EU empire and is no worse for being out. You have yet to explain why the UK is in the unique position – according to you – of having to be in the EU. Own it – you just hate the UK being independent. In fact, own it – you just hate the UK.
September 8, 2021
Nick c
Wrong again you always grow more after a war
September 8, 2021
Nick c
Everything but Brexit
September 5, 2021
Where does this leave the aerospace and car industry gurus who were saying that a hard Brexit would cause 3 hour delays to criticaal components at the ports?
September 5, 2021
The full implications of global lockdowns have yet to hit us.
It was inevitable that trade and supplies of components would be disrupted, but I see very little in the way of planning by our government to keep us moving along, or compensate for shortages, or indeed increase what we create here for basic survival.
The government is far too interested in taking us back to a time before energy, travel and aspirations for a better life were available to the masses.
Foodstuff from abroad will increasingly become difficult to obtain, especially as we learn that new totally unjustified lockdowns are scheduled.
The introduction of the apartheid passport will make things so much worse, but what everyone is ignoring so easily, so convinced that the planet is warming up, is the quantity of crops that have failed due to cold weather in different parts of the the world, mainly in the Southern hemisphere, but Europe hasn’t escaped the very cold nights.
This all sets the scene for a very uncomfortable deprived future – with 90% of the responsibility resting with governments that are supposed to be there to keeps the cogs moving.
September 5, 2021
Sir JR — I note you are hesitant in approving comments that touch on this pandemic that go against establishment think — These are my comments. I seek only to open up the thought processes, for we are surely entering a bad place, where censorship will soon make such comments impossible.
September 5, 2021
My comment this morning did not pass censorship.
It would appear it is because I suggested shortages, are this is not the only problem our and other countries are experiencing. To understand what and why this is happening one should not look at just one piece at a time, but at the whole jigsaw to see the full picture.
September 5, 2021
I think you have to be fair about this .Allowing for his position and goals John Redwood has about as much commitment to open debate as anyone could reasonably expect. I say this as someone whose comments are frequently not published.
Other forums are now closing down , including Conservative Home , incidentally whose comments policy is such as to exclude that strand of Conservative thought represented by David Gauke , entirely . Often in history revolutions started by people with inclusive objectives have become the “deeds creature” .I fear that process is underway with the Brexit State . I hope not .
September 6, 2021
David Gauke writes regularly for ConservativeHome (which shows no sign of closing down), some respond well to his views, many don’t. Their editorial stance is definitely not one of rigid adherence and approval of the current Government!
September 6, 2021
Newmania, Some of my comments don’t get published by JR. So what? Don’t like it? – start your own blog.
You persistently try to have it both ways with Brexit – in one breath the EU is just a trade deal, in the next it’s about the resurrection of the Roman Empire. If the EU is just a trade deal, the figures show we don’t need it. If the EU is actually the political project you favour – the fourth Roman Empire – then we really don’t need it.
Sure, being a monomaniacal Remain you’ll blame every last bad thing on Brexit. That’s factored in. But bad things would happen even if we were in the EU. The fundamental democratic point is if bad things happen now we can hold the government to account. We could not do that as a minority of the other 27, where the EU Commission effectively holds all the power.
September 5, 2021
OFF TOPIC.
Sir Lindsay Hoyle’s new guide states MPs should remember “the way in which you dress should demonstrate respect for your constituents, for the House and for the institution of Parliament in the life of the nation”. “Members are expected to wear business attire in and around the Chamber,” it says.
“Jeans, chinos, sportswear or any other casual trousers are not appropriate. T-shirts and sleeveless tops are not business attire. “Smart/business shoes are expected to be worn. Casual shoes and trainers are not appropriate. Men are encouraged to wear a tie, and jackets must be worn.
“It is a privilege to serve as a Member of Parliament and your dress, language and conduct should reflect this.”
Sir Lindsay has also moved to clamp down on rowdiness in the Commons.
Singing is to be banned, potentially averting a repeat of the scenes from Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s proroguing of Parliament in September, 2019, when Labour MPs protested by singing songs including the Red Flag and Scots Wha Hae. The new rules state that “singing and chanting are not permitted in the chamber” and that “clapping is also not allowed as it eats into the time available for debate”.
MPs have also been told to pay attention: “When listening to a debate you should not read books or newspapers or obviously devote yourself to your phone or other electronic device.”
It would also be good to get on and pass many unimportant Bills in minutes, there is so much to do, and the public feel nothing gets done that is wanted by them.
September 5, 2021
The biggest shortage we need to overcome is the massive lack of common-sense, integrity, honesty and competence in this Government.
1. Three weeks to flatten the curve (18 months and counting)
2. Following the science (only the scientific opinion they WANT to hear)
3. Hancock “Vaccine will not be used on children. It hasn’t been tested on children.”
4. Zahawi “UK has no plans to introduce vaccine passports” (whilst putting the contract out to tender)
5. A Conservative Government will not increase Income Tax, VAT or National Insurance.
And many more.
A shortage of consumer goods is the least of our problems.
September 5, 2021
The triple lock promise to be ratted on too it seems.
September 7, 2021
LL, obviously the mentioned 8.8% increase was due to a statistical quirk linked to a wage growth negative in July 2020 and bouncing back with the economic re-opening affecting that number in July 2021. As such it was indefensible.
Even a 3.3% increase (as it appears to have been said this Tuesday 7) in state pension in April 2021 is quite generous given that the retirees will not (or hardly) be affected by the additional take on NI.
O/T: With the French electoral campaign now underway, the sea serpent of a minimum monthly pension at ā¬1,000 has reappeared. With the Ā£/ā¬ at 1.15 that would make the lowest category of French retirees an annual ā¬1,500 better than their British counterparts.
September 5, 2021
+10
September 5, 2021
Agreed. From France today we have footage of police beating women for trying to enter a shopping centre without a ‘vaccine pass’. Coronafascism coming shortly to a town near you unless some MPs and the supine Starmer ‘grow a pair’ and make a stand for freedom and democracy by not renewing the Coronavirus Act and rejecting the introduction of Social Credit passports. There is no logical argument for banning unjabbed people who have passed a test while admitting jabbed people who are infected and contagious.
As they are discovering in France, there is no non-violent way to stop the globalists. Our only hope is that the French people triumph before matters come to a head here.
September 5, 2021
I went to the supermarket yesterday and the shelves were full. The prices for fresh fruit, veg and meat were the lowest Iāve seen in years. I didnāt notice anything out of stock.
Where there does seem to be a shortage is in house building materials. Prices have gone through the roof for things like wood. This could be down to the massive house-building projects being carried out throughout the country taking all the supplies. Or it could be the result of reduced productivity in manufacturing.
Itās time for the government to end the furlough scheme and get people back to work.
My worry is that we are headed for the concept of Universal Basic Income to be rolled out across the country. We already see it being trialed in Wales. Many will conclude itās not worth working when they can have everything paid for by the dwindling number of taxpayers.
September 5, 2021
By law, other than new cars, the vast majority of cars require an annual MOT at which point the mileage is recorded and passed to DVLC. At this point, a fee can be calculated on the miles driven and charged accordingly. New vehicles are exempt from having an MoT for three years, so an upfront fee for this period can be charged at the time of purchase, akin to the car tax of old.
Using this method there is no need for expensive bureaucracy or infrastructure, other than a simple billing system and better enforcement of cars being driven without MoT or insurance. The one caveat is regarding the number of foreign registered vehicles being driven by migrants from Europe but this cannot be beyond the wit of our civil servants.
September 5, 2021
Wait until HMRC get to hear about this… They will want payment in advance on account, just like they do for personal taxes.
September 5, 2021
we shouldn’t be asking how they’ll collect the tax but why
September 6, 2021
I have friends who drive to and about Ireland and France each year, so how would they be accommodated?
September 5, 2021
Shortages equal price increases. Sometimes shortages are real, brought about by circumstance outside our control. At other times they are artificially created, witness oil, to hike the price.
We should review the shortages and start manufacturing within the UK. I am guessing that the UK has the intellectual assets to create micro chips. Why not up the ante and create them on graphine.
Yesterday I advocated a rejeuvination of the public sector by creating a crossflow with the private sector. The aim being to create a public sector based on value for money. Discovering what that is would be a good first step. A break with the current political system of school, university, parliamentary gofer, safe seat, and Cabinet. Not a way to steer the country. We have life experience and ex military ex business MPs, but far too few of them. Witness their presence on the back benches to ensure minimum conflict with the gofer majority. I experience far more informed incisive questioning on GBNews than ever I do at PMQs.
PS. If there is a container shortage, start manufacturing them in one of our redundant shipyards. It looks like a PPE crisis all over again.
September 5, 2021
Off-topic, but can anyone come up with a significant government policy which is clearly different to Starmerās policy on the same issue ? There are small differences in the details like which specific tax to increase and how long to lock down and how fast to target net zero and how much to increase NHS salaries but is there a single big policy which is totally different ?
September 5, 2021
No. I refer you to my comment on yesterday’s article about Cartels.
We have a Governing Cartel, approved by the Establishment and protected by the first past the post voting system. Although we are supposed to have an Adversarial System ….. offering us a choice of policies, in practice across a whole swathe of policy areas they operate as a CONsensus.
And as with all Cartels, they band together to shaft their customer ….. in this case, the electorate.
September 5, 2021
Shortages?? –
No shortage of new arrivals still pouring in.
No shortage of taxes to pay for them to have free lives..
No shortage of cash for Sunak to throw everwhere in the world
CERTAINLY a shortage of space and consideration for us though. But, then again, everyone knows certain people will only be satisfied when the last English drops dead.
September 5, 2021
+1
September 5, 2021
What shortages? Get passed the media hype – its a good headline, a good way of drawing people in and materially very little of it exists.
Yes there is a big shortage of actual skilled people. The UK education system isn’t about skilling people its about awarding them – hence the sense of entitlement. UK Companies that are experiencing problems don’t train they hope to poach. Then again the just-in-time always go for the cheapest quote mentality of some means they don’t understand value-for-money.
My work is aligned to the building industry supply side, yes companies are being shorted, yes it the same companies that are a bit lay back in paying their way. There is an awakening that some areas of trade is just to hard work and no longer worth the effort. In the round most companies are talking of being 30% up on turnover, not on last year but on 2019.
The chip shortage is another story that has its roots in the same-old same-old Governments have been quick to permit the sell off of those elements of a countries safety and security to the political control of foreign powers. Only in the last week the Chinese division of ARM said they are quitting and taking all the IP with them and setting up on their own. To some, including Government, ARM is obscure entity and they don’t understand (its not arts and craft). The fall of ARM into foreign ownership is deeply damaging to the UK, short term and long term. Remember all the promises to the UK Government when they take over was proposed? Every part has now been broken.
Without a strong resilient economy the UK is on the path of obscurity and poverty. Yet the UK is openly and deliberately committed to that.
September 5, 2021
@Nota# – the Government appears to be hoping for survivability on Banking and Services. The points of note the UK does not have a proper UK Banking sector, it has lots, and an awful lot of foreign Banks working out of the Country. Banking and services are highly automated, as such are self reliant in their own right. It could all go tomorrow. How much pressure would it take for HSBC an Standard Charter to be put under by China before it moved lock stock and barrel.
September 5, 2021
It may be considered helpful to your party and government to divert attention away from home to other nations involved in supply difficulties but it doesn’t help us.
All I see is a government in total chaos arising from leadershio by a buffoon who is more interested in his minute by minute popularity and thus says anything that comes to mind.
But the people suffer. And of course we are now seeing the results of the view of governments and individuals who have believed it isn’t worth bothering making things here ourselves – much easier to buy foreign produced goods and to sell our assets to foreign buyers for the foreign money to pay for them.
We need to find a way of punishing guilty leaders, followers and functionaries. And I don’t mean that in the nicest possible way.
September 5, 2021
By smooth continuous supply you mean JIT but we already knew that JIT was bound to be impacted on by Brexit – especially the style of brexit our Government opted for.
Add to that the Pandemic and we can see the result at Felixstowe – the perfect storm – with shortages, port congestion, ships waiting at anchor etc – but it wasn’t all because of Pandemic – am afraid the problem in the first instance was man made.
September 5, 2021
The problem is not globalisation as such, it is JIT (just in time). I remember in the late 70s/early 80s the management consultant arguments for it. Less waste (eg no storage of components that never get used), the ability to manufacture at the cheapest location and the freeing up of land for house building.
The world economy after 1945 was based on many countries being quite self sufficient and in much of Europe many manufacturing sites being dispersed due to the threats of bombing. So, inevitably perhaps, we have “streamlined” our supply chains. This had been possible because, up until 2020, there had been no global disruption.
I happen to think that this over reliance on this JIT globalisation model has given us much greater inequalities within the UK. We have London which is quite clearly a Global Financial Capital – but many key jobs (delivery drivers, health workers etc…) have been farmed out to other nationals who have a lower cost of living in their countries (they cannot compete with the financial clout of the UK). This undoubtedly was a factor in the 2016 vote!
September 5, 2021
Lovely calm weather John, just right for the dinghy flotilla to set off again – – to be “rescued” from their self inflicted danger. How many will our population increase by today? How much will they cost us just by uttering the magic word “Asylum”?
Councils pleading for houseowners to take in complete strangers into their houses show there is a massive problem already – with nothing done to stop it. Would YOU take in a complete stranger off the streets? Why not?
Every crime they commit while they enjoy being looked after here, falls back on the govt. But none of you care for us – only the new voters.
September 5, 2021
+10
September 5, 2021
Well said.
September 5, 2021
Given we are told we now have a problem with National insurance contributions, why not re-think the whole Tax-Insurance idea.
Increase the Annual Personal Tax Allowance to Ā£15,00o for everyone.
Start the National Insurance contributions and income tax at the same level of Ā£15,000 with everyone to pay (all age groups) no age exclusion.
Raise the basic State Pension to Ā£10,000 per year per person (for full basic contributions, say 40 years only, a percentage of such for fewer years of contributions), keep the triple lock in place as a safeguard.
All prescription charges to be revisited (suggest a Ā£5.00 limit), and urge Doctors not to give out useless medication, that they know will not be of any help to a patient.
Those who are on set medication for life, to retain free of charge prescription entitlement.
Social and Nursing Home care to be revisited completely.
Suggest Nursing Home Care be given to all, in exchange for their STATE Pension, less Ā£2,000 allowance for personal use purchase’s/ personal extra’s.
Even better, raise the State pension to Ā£15,000 and you may find you can scrap a whole host of complicated and confusing additional benefits, which cost Ā£millions to administer.
Thus the young are not disadvantaged, those pensioners who are receiving additional income on top of a State Pension now pay National Insurance contributions.
The young and unhealthy pay less for prescriptions ( they never were free, as other taxpayers funded them)
Care Home fees do not disadvantage those who have saved and lived within their means.
Absolutely no idea if any of this is cost effective, will save any money, or what if any extra money it would bring in, but certainly much fairer to all age groups than the present system, and far simpler for all.
Food for thought ?
September 5, 2021
For further clarification.
See my own addendum comments further down.
September 5, 2021
Lesson for civil-servants, politicians and wokes in general: you can’t turn the economy off and on at a whim. And the economy depends upon technology which is hard and complex, and not as easily accomplished as a two page A4 report or a speech. Snapping your fingers, wishful thinking, and political slogans do not make the economy work. Perhaps Boris Johnson will remember that the next time he has an untargeted national lockdown spasm.
September 5, 2021
The end of Furloughing will help in that some hidden unemployment will reveal itself. Being firm about an end to the Ā£20 Universal Credit supplement should also help. The cap to Universal Credit, currently Ā£20000 per annum (Ā£23000 in London) should on no account be raised. Compare that cap to the annual earning of someone working 2000 hours (that’s a lot of hours) at Ā£9 per hour; that is Ā£18000 gross. Cutting the cap on Universal Credit to Ā£15000 per annum would to be justified. The Bank of England could take some of the heat out of the economy by stopping QE and raising base rate. The Government is entirely right in refusing to import foreign drivers, even temporarily. It’s up to business to train up Brits and use labour more efficiently.
September 5, 2021
But we know that basically all these problems originate with Brexit and there is nothing that these people:
https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-transport
could have done to avoid them, which is why it always seems to be down to people in other government departments to reassure the public that things won’t get too bad, we will survive the shortages.
As an aside, here is the speech about the Irish protocol that Lord Frost gave yesterday:
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/lord-frost-speech-at-british-irish-association-4-september-2021
It is not all good, he would still allow foreign powers to control what we can do in our own country:
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2021/08/20/the-governments-long-road-to-cop-26/#comment-1253383
September 5, 2021
Apropos of which, I have just sent this letter to our local newspaper:
“If insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result, as some claim, then I am afraid that our Prime Minister and his Brexit minister Lord Frost must be off their rockers.
In a recent letter I pointed out how Theresa May had effectively put the UK at the mercy of the EU and the Irish government by openly saying that we ‘must’ secure an agreement over the Irish land border.
(Viewpoint August 19 “Why was there a ‘must’ over EU agreement?’)
Now Lord Frost has given an otherwise sensible speech but has fallen into the same trap with these words:
“It is obvious there will always need to be a dedicated UK-EU Treaty relationship covering Northern Ireland.”
Having ruled out unilateral action by the UK he must now wait for his interlocutors to set their price for any changes to the Irish protocol that he may propose, and given that they have publicly declared that there can be no changes at all we may expect that price to be exorbitant.”
September 5, 2021
Grenfell to be demolished – and presumably replaced with another tower. This will take how long to build?? – to house the dinghy arrivals that land in? – – TWO or THREE days?
WE can see the problems – if the govt cannot – – then the govt should all resign.
The inevitable result shows the total aim of the govt. DISGUSTING.
September 5, 2021
Addendum
Yes aware it all looks pie in the sky, and clearly it could never happen overnight, but over 5 years ?
Think of all of the extra disposable income people will have, which will stimulate the economy, which would also mean extra tax income for the government against such spending.
Think of the administration cost which SHOULD be saved due to simplification and harmonisation of Income Tax, National Insurance, and less complicated Benefits.
People with private pensions would pay even more tax than they do now, and even more would be dragged into the higher tax rate tax bands to help pay for it all.
Low earners pay less tax than they do now.
Those in Nursing or Care homes where all of the necessities of life are provided for them, should certainly not complain about giving up their State Pension.
Those who do not have a full 40 year record of Insurance contributions, to only get a percentage of the State pension, equal to the percentage of contributions made, thus it is a fairer system, because it depends upon your contribution record.
Time to think outside the box a little, and be progressive, instead of tinkering around the edges of a broken unfair and complicated system.
September 5, 2021
Extra money that you don’t get to spend because its taxed.
More taxes solve everything
Low paid workers pay less tax so other people pay more.
Look its very simple. There’s a 14 trillion pound government pension debt hidden off the books. How about going after the fraudsters?
Reply Nothing hidden. The State pension is an annual charge on tax revenue like most other spending.
September 5, 2021
Aden
Suggest you read my comments again.
Pensioners get more money, no taxes raised, indeed Personal allowance increased, so less taxation for all.
Yes National insurance introduced for the retired, but if needed and in return free Care for life at the simple cost of some of your STATE pension.
September 5, 2021
What about all the gold plated, index linked, final salary schemes that will be paid out for decades yet? Where is the liability for those pensions hidden?
September 5, 2021
Mr. Redwood – why isnāt your government doing anything to relieve the shortage of HGV drivers?
September 5, 2021
BoE via the APF has printed Ā£1 trillion.
September 5, 2021
they didn’t print it, it fell off the magic money tree….its all free money
September 5, 2021
According to the CEO of TSMC, the big Taiwanese chip manufacturer that has about 50% of global foundry capacity, sanctions against Huawei and China have led to a big upsurge in demand from non-Chinese manufacturers, and also to some tendency for stockpiling for fear of shortages (and although he doesn’t say it, for speculation – prices for many chips have been soaring).
It can be said that similar influences are at play in oil and gas markets, with anti-fossil fuel policies from western governments resulting in more limited production and tight supply. I note that having failed to persuade OPEC to increase production, Biden is now beginning to authorise more drilling in the US. It will take time before that turns into more production.
Of course, lockdowns all over the world have led to interruptions to production. But the West does appear to have been shooting itself in the foot.
September 5, 2021
Sir Redwood, you raise relevant points, but reading Ambrose Pritchard article in the DT, I worry far more about our gas reserves for the coming winter.
September 5, 2021
Is it possible to post the tape of your conversation on GB News? And did it feel strange not being interrupted?
September 6, 2021
Sir JR
the global supply system has actually managed quite well considering the shock it went through just during a very short time last year.
The shortage of truck drivers in the UK is also a generational issue, but Brexit has also had major implications with a 100.000 too few drivers and 42% of European constcuction workers who have left the UK sector.
September 6, 2021
Problems in Europe too.
Presumably not brexit.
September 7, 2021
Peter 2
thank you taht was very deep and useful contribution to the debate
September 7, 2021
I agree bill.
You claim shortages in the UK are largely due to Brexit.
But these shortages exist currently in European nations and in Australasia and in USA.
IR35 has a big effect in UK and delays in driving tests for hgv drivers.
But you only see everything through your Brexit obsession.
September 8, 2021
You never replied to what I raised
September 6, 2021
“There is a surprising shortage of people willing to take jobs in many places, despite the shock to employment brought on by covid lockdowns.”
But it’s *not* surprising! IR35 rules applied from the start of 2021 force self-employed freelancers who work for a contracting company, and the contracting company itself, to play NIC at maximum rates, as if the hired freelancers were permanent employees. Many lorry/delivery drivers and workmen from the EU used to benefit from the previous arrangement. (Some used to exploit it, but that is not the point here. We’re discussing actions and inevitable consequences). No paid holiday, no pension or minimum pay rights, no job security or legal protection, no fringe benefits, cheap food, annual pay increases – but treated as if they had! I can quite understand why they rebelled and chucked it in.
Added to that, Class II NIC self-employed rates (for those escaping the IR35 trap) are no longer at their previous quite modest fixed rate, but calculated as 2.8% – which for a freelancer earning reasonably well means a considerable tax rise, in addition to income tax. I’m at a loss to see what benefit this provides – everyone knows it is just another unhypothecated tax, which is just as well, given that the *nominal* NI element is NHS services (currently unavailable) and pensions (whose index-linked basis is about to be removed by the Treasury).
So it’s not at all surprising that those casual workers who can leave and pursue work with lower national taxes and costs elsewhere (e.g. in Eastern Europe) have done so.
Those based permanently here will calculate that they are better off under Universal Benefit and the range of other locally applied welfare and housing benefits on offer – particularly after the Chancellor obligingly dangled the carrot of increased UB while waving the stick of IR35.
I notice that a similar problem is reflected in the German media. ’10 weeks wait for a handworker’ is the current cry there. And chronic shortages of raw materials and electronic goods.
The shortage of other workers is largely down to covid regulations. The sooner they are dumped the better.
September 7, 2021
Totally agree Mancunius.
My experience too.