When I woke up yesterday two thirds of the electrical power we needed was coming from fossil fuels. The wind was light so windfarms were producing little, and photovoltaic was also well down. In common with recent days some electricity was being generated from coal power stations, brought back into use to keep the lights on. The gas stations were muchĀ in demand. As I was penning this I learned that our foolish dependence on imports has been adversely affected by damage to the French interconnector leaving us even more short of power.
Over the lastĀ week as a whole fossil fuels provided more than half our electrical power, and over the last month 47%. Renewables have been down to 13-14% and coal has had to contribute. Low winds are very disruptive to our current and planned mix of energy. Gas continued to keep most of us warm at home when we needed heating.
We now have the official figures for the first quarter of 2021 compared to the same quarter the previous year. This shows a similar pattern to more recent events. We came to rely more on gas when as the official document states “due to colder weather and poor renewable output” demand for gas driven power surged. Electricity generation needed 17% more gas than in the prior year. We came to rely more on imports as a result, with Norway accounting for around half and LNG around one quarter. Lower wind speeds led to a 16% reduction in renewable generation in thee first quarter of the year.
It is a good thing that a unit at Drax, at West Burton and Ratcliffe on Soar are still available to supply electricity from coal in emergencies, though it would be better to make provision to avoid this. Unfortunately this entails importing coal, much of it from Russia, which is neither environmentally good nor strategically sound. It is a better thing that we still have good combined cycle gas stations with decent capacity as we rely crucially on them. It is a pity we rely more and more on imported gas, when maybe we should prospect for more in our own territory to cut down transport costs and reduce the strain on our balance of payments. It would also be the greener option. It is a pity the industry has got rid of the Rough Field which was an important gas store. We now operate with very levels of stocks, so our security of supply is poor.
The truth is we do not have enough domestic energy for our needs and are becoming far too dependent on imports. If we want an electric revolution the first task must be to put in a large increase in electrical capacity so the power will be there as and when the electric cars and heating systems take off as consumer items. If we want to be sure we can keep the lights on and the boilers keeping us warm it would also be a good idea to put in some additional generating capacity anyway, and to look at increasing domestic output of gas. It would also help to put in more gas storage against more cold winter days when the wind does not blow. The government needs to review all this, as the energy market is now complex mixture of subsidies, arranged prices and managed contracts where the regulator and government have a major role.
The first duty of government energy policy is to keep the lights on.
September 16, 2021
I see Anne-Marie Trevelyan has been moved Business, Energy and Clean Growth to Trade. The Oxford Poly lass clearly knew/understood virtually nothing about energy, does she know any more about trade? As you say “over the last week as a whole fossil fuels provided more than half our electrical power” and this is only 20% of all energy usage. So about 10% of all power. At least the fools who manage our energy system have not yet destroyed all our coal powered power stations yet as yet.
Perhaps they will now put someone sensible like Peter Lilley or Matt Ridley in charge of energy. I have heard Kwasi Kwarteng Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy wittering on about the Saudi Arabia of wind (on Spectator Podcasts) it is very clear the Trinity history graduate does not have a clue about energy – and he is one of the better ministers.
September 16, 2021
You are correct but as ever overlook the politics.
September 16, 2021
COP 26 should be relabelled CON 26. The UN and its IPCC use project fear (originally catastrophic global warming now relabelled climate change) to terrify us all. It’s solution: shut down the fossil fuel industry. It has succeeded in many respects, especially here in the UK. Yet how many ministers, let alone members of the general public, understand that the IPCC only looks at, funds studies into and reports on man made global warming and the supposed role of CO2? Natural influences are ignored, yet these are the dominant drivers of climate change! No wonder their models of future temperature fail. Indeed these same models even fail when applied to known historical data as Dr Steven Koonin pointed out in Unsettled? What climate science tells us, what it doesn’t, and why it matters. It is time to remove the blinkers and restore perspective before the UK is plunged into an economic disaster of this and previous governments’ own making.
September 16, 2021
+1
September 16, 2021
+1
Actually I am beginning to think that they have no clue about anything.
Does Johnson really believe that we canāt see through his ludicrous shenanigans?
Doesnāt he realise that when staring down the barrel of a gun most people tend to obey?
We have been mercilessly bullied into this situation.
By people who have no answers.
And no ideas except personal ambition.
September 16, 2021
But, Everhopeful, surely when they are appointed Secretaries of State they suddenly acquire omniscience!
September 16, 2021
+1
Oooops! Sorry I forgot that.
Itās all part of the chaos magick.
September 16, 2021
@Everhopeful +1
From his actions to date he has shown he is anti UK, anti UK citizens, simply because the focus groups tell him he is on message with the extreme left. Is he a Conservative or a dyed-in-the-wool international Socialist
September 16, 2021
+1
International Socialist wins hands down!
A member of the ISO on steroids?
(Except that the ISO opposed police brutality)
But overall definitely your dyed in the wool one!
September 16, 2021
Quite right on all points LL. The first time I heard the phrase The Saudi Arabia of Wind was when Alec Salmond came to open a new wind farm near where we lived in Scotland. Scotland is becoming a nightmare vision of metal wind turbines, destroying the peace and lives of all who live near them. When we were campaigning to stop this we were in contact with the ex director of the grid in Scotland who said there would be problems if the government kept going down this route. That was 10 years ago and things have only got worse. The cost of energy with this subsidised renewable energy is going sky high. As it stands in Scotland now, many wind farms are switched off and get paid millions for it because there is often too much wind power for the grid to handle and yet they are planning to erect thousands more. It doesn’t make sense or perhaps it does make sense if you’re one of those making a mint out of it. The experts will tell you we can never turn off gas plants as wind and solar are just not reliable enough. Get fracking.
September 16, 2021
”get fracking”
You mean fracking for clean, cheap, local energy that is sustainable, provides securtiy of supply, provide employment and a research tool/model to develop new technologies – NEVER HAPPEN
September 16, 2021
+1
September 17, 2021
Glen Cullen
That’s the one mate that ticks all yours, our and the country boxes.
Correct as usual.
September 16, 2021
As Carrie on Boris trashes our capacity to produce electricity, in the name of the CAGW god, Boris himself is occupied in busily rearranging the deck-hands on the ship of state.
September 16, 2021
Definitely a 45-degree list to port
September 16, 2021
GC – Titanic comes to mind.
September 16, 2021
He killed off fracking some time ago.
September 16, 2021
Good Morning,
If you didn’t know:
https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Rolls-Royce-on-track-for-2030-delivery-of-UK-SMR
Now you do and can provide full support to get then in!
September 16, 2021
The security and safety implications are nightmarish, not to mention the long term storage of waste.
This is utterly outdated technology.
September 16, 2021
“Outdated” compared to windmills, Martin?
September 16, 2021
Can you point to comparable technology which is outdated?
September 16, 2021
MiC : “This [nuclear] is utterly outdated technology.
Compared to windmills, coal and gas?
Nuclear has the lowest deaths/KWhr produced over all other fuel types and the smallest footprint/KWhr.
Not only does nuclear waste occupy a tiny amount of space but it can be safely processed to produce further nuclear fuel.
September 23, 2021
I guess you know that this reprocessing is done by the Orano Group, an international but essentially French conglomerate.
September 16, 2021
I wonder how long it will be before ‘Boris’ decides he’ll decide the whole project should be sold for foreign money so his City spiv friends can make a big fat commission to be shared with him.
September 16, 2021
It is far better to use gas for standby purposes than coal, with only half the CO2 for the same generation.
September 16, 2021
MiC. We produce only around 40% of our gas usage and it is in decline. Obviously you have ignored our host’s comment about becoming far too dependent on imports.
September 16, 2021
No, but since John and many on the Right will not accept anything remotely resembling “dirigisme”, how are you going to prevent private concerns from buying their energy from wherever it is most economical?
By rigging the market? By protectionism? By restrictive regulation?
Come on?
Reply. The market is very rigged today thanks to EU rules we kept
September 16, 2021
And so?
September 16, 2021
reply to reply ….well throw them out ! What is the Government majority?
September 17, 2021
And how will that prevent firms from importing gas if they find it cheaper, Micky?
September 16, 2021
There’s a world wide shortage of LNG and the prices have more than doubled in recent months.
Putting is using gas exports as political leverage.
Relying on Russia for anything is nor a good idea.
September 16, 2021
Wind today producing between 1.4 and 3.5% of demand. 20gw installed producing 1.04 gw.
Net Zero. You must be joking.
September 16, 2021
+1 load of Carbon intensive concrete and diesel ships to build and maintain the wind farms too.
September 16, 2021
Ramping up power stations of any type makes no environmental sense. It’s a bit like over revving a car when it’s not necessary. Madness. Also it depends on where the gas is coming from.
September 16, 2021
Well, it’s either ramp up old power stations, or electricity black-outs, Fedup.
September 16, 2021
Yes I realise this NickC. That’s what I’m pointing out. Because of wind and intermittent renewables we have to keep ramping up our power stations to compensate which is inefficient. Why not just use them as they should be used and dump the other unreliable crap? We were saying this when the first wind farm in Scotland was erected opposite our home.
September 16, 2021
Imported gas?
September 16, 2021
Except CO2 is not actually a significant problem anyway.
But gas is cleaner than coal in general in other respects but gas is more expensive and more expensive to store too.
September 16, 2021
Nothing wrong with coal fired power stations, we need to build more.
We are closing power stations without any true thought of what is going to replace them. Energy Policy!!! no one in government understands Energy. We are preached to by idiots
Lord Marshall RIP, where are you when this country desperately needs a commonse sense approach to energy.
Wind power = pi–ing in the wind.
September 16, 2021
I don’t suppose the government might be secretly encouraging certain media induce fear in the population at large about our lack of reliable energy sources over the coming colder winter in order to sweep away remaining objections to more expensive but more reliable small modular reactors? Might also go some way to explaining apparent tolerance of motorway protesters and XR.
September 16, 2021
@Peter Wood
The only problem is Boris is against it – wind is better. He will subsidies with yours and my taxpayer money foreign manufactured windmills. Where our(UK) taxes finish up supporting foreign Countries. He wont do the same for UK companies were it then supports our own exchequer.
September 16, 2021
Many thanks for this very informative link.
I regret however that R-R does not place more emphasis on the cardinal virtue of SMR power stations as sources for district heating systems – basic thermodynamics limits the net electrical output to somewhat less than half the total energy input (which is why those big cooling towers have been so familiar).
Effective use of that otherwise ‘waste heat’ is perhaps the greatest game-changer of all in the quest for reduced carbon dioxide emissions and, unlike some, UK has been very laggardly in appreciating this.
September 16, 2021
PS re. R-R link, importance of district heating,
– if you live anywhere near Wokingham you may recall the giant cooling towers of the former Didcot A on the horizon, now q.v.
https://www.powerengineeringint.com/decentralized-energy/district-energy/didcot-power-plant-set-to-generate-district-heating/
‘laggardly’? …. our thrifty friends in The Hague were hooking up their local power station for this more than 30 years ago!
September 16, 2021
What has been built to replace Didcot?
September 16, 2021
What? The town? The Railway history? I imagine you mean the site where the cooling towers used to stand? It will be housing- who will have guessed!
September 16, 2021
Peter, Nuclear is (unfortunately) essential as base load when our PM is determined to worship the CAGW god. I much prefer gas, fracked in our own country. It’s safer, cheaper and less polluting (uranium half-life 4.5bn years).
Renewables are intermittent. Wind, in particular, is difficult to forecast (compared to daylight for Solar). That means we must build dispatchable back-up, some instantaneously available, but also capacity sufficient for weeks at a time. Hence a variety of back-up technologies. And the costs of that must be added to the costs of Wind and Solar, making them extraordinarily expensive.
The government is in a total mess about electricity generation. It is a disaster waiting to happen, even without the added burden of converting to electric cars and homes, for which no extra capacity is being planned let alone built.
September 16, 2021
I agree fully about your point re long term nuclear hazards.
September 16, 2021
was there a point about mass numbers freezing to death, transport at a standstill, murders in the supermarkets fighting over woolies or candles? Car charger cables being vandalised every night? EV drivers being attacked at charging stations? …..well?
September 16, 2021
Good morning.
Sorry, off topic.
Following on from the planned increase in NIC I am amazed to learn here through both, Peter Parsons and a-tracy that the government has once again failed to implement the equalising measures on imports. This I am told is losing the Exchequer revenue. How can a government in one had demand that a new increase in taxes be levied upon us when it is failing to collect tax due and, if I am correct, giving the money away ?
—
I am not sure how long it takes to build a coal fired power station but, if one assumes 5-10 years then we better get a move on ! We are due to decommission many of the remaining ones soon due to agreements and government legislation such as the Climate Change Act. Perhaps is it got rid of the latter (something we have been banging on about for years here) we may stave off an inevitable disaster.
This was, and still is, the EU plan. To create interdependency between nation states, making harder for them to leave. The French have been very clever in this, making sure we are buying their energy whilst their state owned companies bought into our market insuring that said energy is purchased from France. We have therefore, been subsidising them for years and look very much to continue.
September 16, 2021
We should scrap the climate change act, scrap net zero, scrap Debden/Gummerās moronic climate committee, scrap the destruction of old power stations until we have new ones, scrap importing wood to burn at Drax (young but far less efficient coal), scrap renewable subsidies and market rigging, scrap EC subsidies, scrap ethanol enriched petrol, clear the idiots off the M25 with real deterrent criminal sanctions, build up gas and even coal reserves and get fracking now.
So Socialist dope Gove moves to housing. On education he wanted 20% VAT on private school fees to make these parents pay four times over for education. At housing will he now want 20% VAT on rents?
I do hope I never have to hear the nauseous phrase āBUILD BACK BETTERā ever again Boris. No one want to do it worse do they. But your tax borrow and piss down the drain and you net zero CO2 lunacy will do exactly that.
So are we to get a new Vaccine Tzar? Will this one understand the vaccinating healthy children is a very big mistake given the numbers? Also that males, females, different ages, blood groups and people who have had Covid have very different risk/benefit figures for the vaccine and then adjust sensibly to reflect this saving any more unnecessary deaths. It seems this was beyond Nadine, Witty and JCVI.
September 16, 2021
James Forsyth in the Spectator says one Tory MP is worried about Borisās āfailure to set out a direction of travelā alas it is far , far worse than that. He has set out a direction of travel but it is 180 degree out from what is needed.
September 16, 2021
“Houston, we have a problem”
September 16, 2021
you mean ‘UK, we have a problem. Fire the retro rockets quick’.
September 16, 2021
You vote Conservative. The Conservatives literally sold off our electricity companies and the French bought a lot of them. The Conservatives also sold off your train companies. The Germans bought a lot of them. The Tories sold off our airports and the Spanish bought them.
Most other European governments did not sell off their strategic national infrastructure.
None of this is to do with the EU. It is all due to the fact that you vote Conservative. This puts you in a minority by the way. Most of us do not vote for them.
September 16, 2021
Andy, even fewer vote Labour.
September 16, 2021
Andy, for once you are absolutely right on all points, though I am far from sure that we can blame Conservative governments alone for selling off the family jewels. It has long angered and dismayed me at the short-sighted approach that has been taken in all that, though it must be said that it is a fact that many UK assets have been stripped out via EU grants and subsidies, so as to deliberately to weaken our position. So, overall, it is six of one and a half-dozen of each – both UK governments and EU activities. And it is no accident that Dungeness nuclear power station, French owned, was recently shut down, making us more dependant on inter-connectors for power to keep the lights on.
The UK, a wonderful collection of islands, surrounded by sea full of fish and stood huge amounts of coal, possibly gas by fracking, all thrown away in the pursuit of net zero and let’s not upset France.
September 16, 2021
I expect you vote Green? What proportion of the electorate vote with you?
September 16, 2021
The big sell off of utilities to French and German interests occurred under Labour. Why do you always forget that? It must be because you repeat the lie so often. The railways have been re-nationalised to become a millstone for taxpayers – not that there was ever that much foreign ownership in that sector.
September 16, 2021
But the rolling stock is mostly foreign. (I use that word because I think someone on here dislikes the word.)
September 17, 2021
The removal of regulations on overseas investments was done by Tory Chancellor Geoffrey Howe in 1979. Foreign banks flooded the City after the āBig Bangā in 1986 initiated by the Tory Government. And then indeed Tony Blair and Gordon Brown did not do anything to slow down the stream of acquisition of UK companies by foreign-based investors.
The tax system under the Tories (with nothing done subsequently by Labour to counter it) had been tweaked so that it made it more profitable for foreign overseas owners to buy UK companies with borrowed money, as these investors were able to deduct the interest they had to pay on their loans from their tax bills. Another part to that same story is that some of the new foreign owners, with these debts, were far less likely to invest in the future of the companies, but keen on stripping the assets and then selling for a quick profit.
So yes, Labour went on with the flow but the dike had been continuously and seriously undermined by the successive 1979-1997 Tory Governments.
September 17, 2021
Labour were only permitted to take office by the foreign-owned UK press empire on the condition that a long list of Thatcher’s changes were accepted as “irreversible”.
Any such undoings would have been seen as dangerously symbolic.
September 17, 2021
A minority maybe, if the disparate collection of more significant minorities count collectively as a majority. I think not.
September 16, 2021
@Mark B – you got it in one. The plan was always to make the UK suffer and pay twice to get it to submit to perpetual EU Rule. For Boris it is far better the UK Citizen subsidies the French economy than to do anything that might bolster the UK economy
September 16, 2021
”I am not sure how long it takes to build a coal fired power station but, if one assumes 5-10 years”
ONLY ONE MONTH IN CHINA
September 16, 2021
Yeah. But that’s China. I am talking UK. It has taken them 2 years to fix a small local bridge near where I live.
September 16, 2021
+1. Planning permission might well take 10+ years then legal appeals!
September 16, 2021
Who are “them”?
A private company, I surmise?
September 16, 2021
A contractor to the Council?
September 16, 2021
They had five years to prepare for this tax change and didn’t (look how fast they’ll implement a new tax on employees/employers and the systems will all be in place in quick time by April at the employer’s expense (software changes, new payroll payslips all old stock will have to be destroyed and government’s tax collection demand sorted in just six months), it sort of suggests it was never in the plans to implement equalisation! Yet the EU were ready from day 1.
Our politicians should be ashamed, they tell us they need more money yet waste money every day both on import taxes from the EU (why can’t the system used with every other exporting country in the world to the UK use) and NHS recharging (which wastes about Ā£1bn minimum and would result in more visitors having travel insurance/private treatment if their countries were getting rebilled for their healthcare).
I’m sick of it and I really hope that Tice forms his suggested coalition and promises to do something about both quickly with details of how he will achieve it against anti-change, unionised controlled, State organisations that don’t want to do it.
September 16, 2021
For years people have been highlighting the pitfalls of total reliance on renewable and for decades the energy bill payers have had to keep paying the price for all the constraint and subsidies payments thrown a energy producers and land owners and for what?
We are still plagued with people demanding renewable energy , Net Zero CO2 and still the investment has not gone into transmission infrastructure and having a secure base load facility.
You Sir John know better than most about the totally lack of energy production, transmission ignorance that exists within parliament. If we the tax and energy bill payers have a 100 maybe like you in the house I for one would be surprised. You and your like minded colleagues condemned to the back benches and overuled and ignored as it sĆØms one of the critical items on the agenda is to get our present PM to suceed in beating Mrs Thatchers length of tenure of office . 550 so called politicians are still fighting all the old political beliefs and dogma whilst all the while the one sector that could revolutionise this country in all sectors of the community is ignored. Cheap reliable energy.
September 16, 2021
Indeed. But if Boris is to suceed in beating Mrs Thatchers length of tenure as PM he need policies that will actually work and work quickly. These are low simple taxes, a bonfire of red tape, relaxed planning, cheap on demand energy, cancel HS2, small government, cancel loan for worthless degrees, freedom of choice and fair markets in healthcare, energy, broadcasting, housing, educationā¦ but once again as with Major, Cameron & May Bosis clearly has the same 180 degrees out compass.
September 16, 2021
And my energy supplier is the latest in a long line to go to the wall and no doubt my cost will shoot up. The whole thing is an utter mess with governments in denial for the last twenty years and we are now seeing the result.
Go green get dark.
September 16, 2021
How ironic that the obsession with global warming will likely lead to people dying from cold.
September 16, 2021
Indeed and far more do so than from heat in the UK. Vastly expensive heat pumps pushed onto people and rigged high energy prices will certainly ensure this.
September 16, 2021
I meant – Indeed and far more deaths from cold than from heat in the UK. Vastly expensive heat pumps pushed onto people and rigged high energy prices will certainly ensure this.
September 16, 2021
Short periods of a few days summer heat are rather easier to mitigate too, long winter cold spells rather harder.
September 16, 2021
Why has the term global warming evolved to climate change? Why are China and Germany being vague about going green, and taking their time ensuring theyāve sufficient means of keeping the lights on and their homes warm?
I am happy having both gas and electric in my home.(all eggs, one basket?) During a power cut, we can heat one room with a gas fire, and heat water and cook food on our gas hob.
I think the government are being incredibly short sighted, naive and frankly, stupid with all this green stuff, (most isnāt even green) They are ill informed and narrow minded. They need to get an alternative view on āclimate changeā from some one who is not a globalist trying to transform the world economy under the guise of āclimate changeā and ensure that we can keep warm and the lights on, and not trash the economy.
Then we wonāt need to build back better, but just do the right thing for the countryā¦.Smash the great global economic reset at national level.
September 16, 2021
It was changed because the models were unable to demonstrate global warming; they failed when tested against actual historical data. Enter the term “climate change” as the convenient catch all phrase which enables the politicians to blame any event, such as the latest thunderstorm, which is then blamed on any and every man made activity. Theere was a time when climate change was measured and judged, by the WMO, over thirty year spans of data. In the hands of the politicians that has now been reduced to 24 hours. It is another manifestation of project fear, the tool of choice for the political class to try to intimidate people into doing what they want them to do. Any connection with reality or the truth is not required; remember “weapons of mass destruction” that, we were assured, would finish us all off in 48 hours? This scam belongs in the same category of deliberate misinformation.
September 17, 2021
Not at all, oldtimer. Global warming came when the first unidimensional models (only the vertical dimension was represented) were used. These models showing an increase in downward longwave radiation (with increasing CO2) were showing an increase in surface and lower level temperatures. Thatās from 1964 onwards.
When the first three-dimensional models were developed and started to be used for climate studies (and not only for weather forecasts for which these models had originally been developed) at the end of the 70s to mid-80s it was rapidly shown that on a globally averaged basis these 3-D models were still giving a warming, but when looked on a regional basis, there were areas getting warmed, some with temperature remaining rather stable and some even cooling, and all that depending on the time of the year, with Southern hemisphere response smaller than Northern hemisphere response.
When the InterGovernmental Panel on Climate Change was created at the end of the 1980s, the name already was āon Climate Changeā, not Global Warming.
Only people who have not followed this type of developments can go on with the type of inaccuracy you and others continue to repeat on this blog. And in that respect you follow the GWPF not a particularly clever group of āscientistsā. GWPF might be right discussing implications of/on policy but certainly is a bunch of clowns w.r.t. even following the day-to-day publications of scientific papers on the topics.
So sorry, you are plain wrong.
September 16, 2021
+1
A bit like saving our āHealth Serviceā by denying us healthcare!
September 16, 2021
Still births up an appalling 88% in the first lockdown.
September 16, 2021
We call it climate change rather than global warming because not everywhere will get warmer.
If you look at an Atlas you will notice the U.K. is on the same latitude as parts of Canada, Alaska and Siberia. We are kept warm by the Gulf Stream. There is some evidence that the Gulf Stream has broken down in the past and that it is weakening again. Climate change could have the effect of making U.K. winters much colder. It is already evident that rain is different than it used to be.
Your children and grandchildren care passionately about fixing climate change. If your generation spoke with them rather than at them you might understand this.
September 16, 2021
Once it was just global warming now you say hotter or colder, wetter or drier it is all climate change.
Looks like you’ve got it all covered andy.
PS
For the Gulf Stream to stop, the world would need to stop revolving.
September 16, 2021
Unfortunately, youāre wrong, P2: ocean currents are essentially linked to wind patterns, temperature differential and shape of ocean basins. The Earth rotation affects them mainly in their direction. (You might want to search for āWind- and Buoyancy-Driven Ocean Circulationā). If it were possible to have a fully isothermal planet (all ocean water at the same temperature), most of these ocean motions would disappear (it is thought the Antarctic Circumpolar Current would likely be maintained), otherwise just a bit of local turbulence would remain.
Fortunately, the Earth being a sphere sees a difference in insolation between equatorial and polar regions, which guarantees a temperature gradient between low and high latitudes, and then ocean currents.
So in a way youāre right, the Gulf Stream is not likely to stop, but strictly speaking it has not much to do with the rotation of the Earth per se.
And with a decrease in the difference in temperature between equator and high latitudes as has been happening these last 40 years, the strength of the Gulf Stream might well decrease, the North Atlantic Drift might well not reach latitudes as high as at present, and this bit of climate change would likely bring colder temperatures to North Western Europe.
So for people leaving there, especially in winter, that would not be GW but CC.
September 16, 2021
Very waffly comment hef.
But thanks for agreeing with me.
As you say.
The Gulf Stream may vary in intensity over centuries but for it to stop it would require the Earth to stop revolviing.
And that isn’t going to happen.
September 17, 2021
Waffly P2, be honest, say you do not understand and are not going to make any effort to clue yourself.
And could you please point out where I said that the Gulf Stream is linked to the Earth rotation by repeating my exact words if possible. Thanks in advance.
PS: I even made the effort to define isothermal as the condition that would prevent currents from forming.
But āpearls before swineā comes to mind ā¦
September 17, 2021
Yes waffly hef
I’m not claiming you said anything.
You butted into my response to young andy
who claimed the gulf stream had broken down and it is weakening.
This is nonsense.
September 17, 2021
P2, You might want to read on nature.com the Nature paper āSlow down of the Gulf Stream during 1993-2016ā, by S. Dong, M.O. Baringer & G.J. Goni, 30/04/2019, Scientific Reports 9, 6672.
It may be part of a decadal variation and is not for now linked to CO2-linked climate change, but the point is that Andy saying that the Gulf Stream had been weakening is not wrong.
September 17, 2021
You dont read the original post properly heffy.
Andy said the gulf stream had broken down.
That is a nonsense.
Variations in the gulf stream are common.
It isn’t a constant thing.
September 18, 2021
Oh P2, Iām so sorry, I had not realised you were a specialist on all things Gulf Streamy. So please tell me what was the standard deviation of the Gulf Stream flow pre-1993, say between 1970-1992? How does it compare to that in the subsequent 23 years?
September 19, 2021
Ah you’ve gone all sarcastic again hef.
And now a quiz.
Let’s get back to the start.
Andy said the gulf stream had broken down.
Total nonsense.
And you know it.
September 21, 2021
Andy wrote āThere is some evidence that the Gulf Stream has broken down in the past and that it is weakening againā.
Andy is right, the important bit is āIN THE PASTā: during glaciations ocean currents were very different, limited to the intertropical zone, so no Gulf Stream.
And that it is weakening again, see paper by Dong et al.
In case you do not know the Earth was at one time completely covered with ice: snowball earth, 716 m-600 m years ago. No ocean currents.
September 16, 2021
The theory you support, Andy, is that continuing to release CO2 (from natural fuels) into the atmosphere will cause catastrophic unstoppable global warming. That’s a political view (and wrong), not a scientific view.
CAGW (catastrophic anthropogenic global warming) was re-named ‘climate change’ for solely propaganda purposes. The claimed problem is global (specifically the increase in global temperature), not local. There is no global “climate emergency” if the weather merely changes locally. That’s just a matter of adaptation.
And my children – all much younger than you (claim to be) – all care passionately about fixing gullible propagandists like you, rather than entertaining the hubris that man can control the climate. Perhaps if you spoke to people outside your bubble, rather than at us, you might understand this.
September 17, 2021
+1
September 16, 2021
Yes, climate change may result in much colder winters.
But these will be sun-driven climate change, not man-made.
September 16, 2021
Yes rain is different….often very wet.
September 16, 2021
Years ago if someone was considered green, it was because they were thick-headed. It would appear all those who claim to be ‘green’ these days are merely proving what it originally meant holds true.
September 16, 2021
Your costs will indeed shoot up. Much of this increase is down to Brexit. But then you knew what you were voting for, apparently.
September 16, 2021
āBrexitā surely you must mean green crap and net zero? We could now (thanks to Brexit) ditch all this green lunacy. Alas Boris and Carrie have fallen for this lunacy as has SNP/Labour/Plaid. So the only way is the Patel method (that she uses on the Dover RIB boat people). Pretend to be very concerned in words but do nothing of substance about it at all.
September 16, 2021
One of the hopefuls for the upcoming French Presidential elections said in a speech last week “We must regain our legal sovereignty so that we are no longer subject to the rulings of the European Court of Justice or the European Court of Human Rights.” Obviously one of those villainous non-believers in the multiple benefits of belonging to the EU. His name? Michel Barnier! Remember him?
September 16, 2021
DL, He just shot himself in both feet with this one speech in NĆ®mes. Not a particularly clever move from him as his poll went the following day from ~10% to ~5%. If he continues like this, heāll soon be below such āhopefulsā as Dupont-Aignan.
September 16, 2021
The wind didn’t blow hard enough yesterday Andy and that was apparently down to Brexit too.
September 16, 2021
Probably due to man made CO2 – all weather events are nowadays according to the BBC.
September 16, 2021
Another Kabul-was-caused-by-Brexit moment from Andy.
September 16, 2021
Would you care to explain why Brexit is the cause?
September 16, 2021
As Mark B states… our dependencies and addictions were cultivated during our membership of the EU.
Which EU Party do you support, Andy, and why ?
September 16, 2021
From the way he mumbles I suggest he is a member of the Bring a Bottle Party!
September 16, 2021
no longer anonymous
the energy policy has always been a domestic matter at the end , so blaming th EU makes no sense, even if they have tried to make an integrated electricity system
September 16, 2021
That’s not correct bill.
The EU through its treaties has a big effect on climate policy and energy policies of member states.
September 16, 2021
I don’t blame the EU for anything Bill.
September 17, 2021
Yes P2, but the EU never compelled the UK to pass the Climate Change Act in 2008. As far as I am aware there are no equivalent Act in any other EU27 countries. Most of them now have policies related to various aspects of the environment including plans to follow the recommendations included in the Paris agreement.
But as you very well know the UK CCA was passed by Parliament seven years before the Paris Agreement of December 2015.
Could it be you overplay the role of the EU to mask the faults of the UKās successive Governments?
September 17, 2021
Oh it’s you again heffy.
I never said the EU compelled the UK to pass the Climate Change Act so I’m puzzled why you have said what you have said.
September 16, 2021
Andy, why have German and EU power costs shot up fourfold over the 5 year average?
Was that also brought about by Brexit?
September 16, 2021
Nig l. That could be a great slogan – Go green get blackout.
September 16, 2021
Sir JR,
WE have had more then ten years of COnservative govrenment and no new power generation has been built or enough to replace power stations that have been discontinued, so your party is somewhat responsible for the lack of electricity generation capacity even if new nuclaer capacity will be generated over the next five years.
The dependency on importing gas is a problem throughout Europe and not unique for the UK, so,of course you can call that foolish , I would call it living with reality and importing most of it from a realiable allie and friend Norway. (It is a bit like your emotions about remainers).
September 16, 2021
Indeed, but only āsomewhat responsibleā? They are almost entirely responsible, even Lady Thatcher fell for the con trick, climate alarmist agenda. They have had over ten years to scrap the insane climate change act and Lord Debdenās committeeās idiotic agenda and now we have the net zero insanity on top.
September 16, 2021
LL – please, it’s not Lord Deb D en (which is in Essex), it’s Lord De B en (which is in Suffolk).
But he’s still not the sharpest knife in the box.
September 16, 2021
Hi BB
So .. “The dependency on importing gas is a problem throughout Europe..”.
Presumably, “problems” need solutions ?
September 16, 2021
Ideology and the pursuit of virtue is destroying the practical mindset of political leaders and the utilitarian foundation of public policy.
Across all areas of public policy both main party leaders have since 1997 formed policy that promotes their own party advantage and appeased and assuaged minority vested interest ie activists who have the ability to damage the perceived reputation of the main parties.
And so today, we have a PM who knows wind farms and solar are bullshit but panders to it for fear of being denounced. He does the same on race issues, gender issues and any other issue he sees as a source of POLITICAL THREAT
Public policy imbued with what actually and practically works for real people living in the real world are dismissed and replaced by policy that panders to extremist ideology and neutralises the denunciation and vicious barbs of activists. This pattern is seen right across government
I despise contemporary progressive and Marxist politics that has been embraced by the three main parties. It is destroying the moral, civil and practical foundations of our world.
September 16, 2021
You disapprove of the pursuit of virtue?
That can only mean that you endorse the pursuit of vice.
It’s quite some admission, really.
September 16, 2021
Johnson 2013 on the subject of wind power
āā¦to continue the pointless desecration of the moors and dales and valleys of this country with wind farms. There they stand ā wrecking some of the most gorgeous views in the world and producing derisible quantities of energy.ā
September 16, 2021
Well said, Sir John, but surely the root problem facing the UK is a cabinet – and indeed parliament – stuffed with talking heads pitifully ignorant of the vital underlying science and technology. Otherwise, it would be aware that:
– its ‘green’ posturing is ludicrous, given Germany’s switch back to coal, and China’s building of new coal-fired stations at a great rate.
– gas is harder to store than coal, and our gas supplies are horribly, horribly vulnerable to actions by adversaries. As things stand, when the ageing gas grid goes down – for whatever reason – it will take the power grid with it and there will not be a quick fix.
– we need a war-emergency-style programme to develop and install a fleet of safe SMRs as a matter of utmost urgency. (Good export prospects, too, for the successors of the prototypes developed ~ 70 years ago before the military demanded a switch from these to plutonium-producing technology).
With a government thus so inept, what does a poor boffin do to survive the coming dark freezout?
– install multifuel stove … that was just as well, now that the heat pump – made in China! – has died.
– remember to order plenty of anthracite … and fix that generator to be ready.
September 16, 2021
Yes – it could become a ROLLS-ROYCE RESCUE mission .
September 16, 2021
And in other news Emily Maitlis wheels out has been Anna Soubry to spout her usual bile. Hell hath no fury etc. The usual balanced BBC offering.
Maybe one of her targets, Nadine will finally put us and them out of our misery.
September 16, 2021
Trouble is, is she strong enough? All new appointees are forced by the Civil Service into the brain transplant hospital. When you see them afterwards they have lost all indication of a free personality and begin to speak and look like robots.
September 16, 2021
Funniest BBC remark on the reshuffle, from La Maitlis: “But where is the diversity of thought?”
September 16, 2021
So the new Minister of State for Business, Energy and Clean Growth is to be Julia Lopez MP – an energy engineer, energy economist, physicist or just someone a little numerate perhaps? No Social and Political Sciences at Queensā Camb and an ex Tower Hamlets councillor it seems is what is needed. It should go well!
September 16, 2021
As they often say – Anything subject feels the need to call itself a Science, probably isnātā¦
September 16, 2021
The same usually applies to the word āIndependentā as in the Climate Change Committee which claims to be āindependentā or the Bank of England or the āIndependent Office for Police Conductā hundreds of such examples.
September 16, 2021
I am in France and was with an aeronautical engineer last night. He said that engineers there cannot believe that the government knows what it is doing following the new agenda. They have 80% nuclear about to be closed in ten years and no way to back up renewables or store enough electrical energy. The only new reactor is an over complicated disaster and is the one or two which the UK has chosen. The UK has only 20% nuclear and aging gas stations wearing out more quickly because of wind taking precedence. Both countries will be in trouble because of incompetent politicians and green activist civil servants.
September 17, 2021
+1
September 16, 2021
And now the Times has reported the truth about EVs: don’t think you’ll be able to charge them when you want to. You might be ‘overloading the grid’. Sorry, you stay put and don’t go anywhere till ‘the grid’ lets you drive.
I can’t wait to pay Ā£44,000 for my electric car (average price in UK)!
September 16, 2021
The manufacture of which with battery will in total produce more CO2 and environmental damage than keeping you old small ICE car for a few more years. Plus it will cost about 70K more in finance costs and depreciation.
September 16, 2021
I live in an apartment, can’t wait to queue up every night at the local charging station for hours with 100+ cars ahead of me
September 16, 2021
The current energy shortages are to do with the 2018 closure of EDF’s Dungeness B nuclear power station, due to safety concerns. The plant had been operating for 10 years longer than its design life and had developed insurmountable problems with fuel assemblies. The remaining six nuclear plants in EDF’s UKs fleet will all be retired within the next three years. The government has no timely plan for their replacement.
Due to the intermittent nature of renewable energy additional baseline nuclear capacity is necessary. Our home-grown Magnox and AGR technology was safe and reliable and even today the UK construction industry retains the design and build skills necessary to replace them. Rolls-Royce wish to build their small modular reactors here and should be given approval for a demonstration plant
EDF are building new nuclear plant at Sizewell and Hinkley Point. They still claim the Hinkley plant will be operational in 2025. See links below for updates.
https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/features/new-nuclear-power-plants-uk/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55299511
September 16, 2021
Technology is the answer.
– There needs to be better storage of electricity when it is windy. Batteries (car to grid) and hydrogen by electrolysis. Export surplus wind power.
– Carbon capture for gas/coal generation.
– More efficient consumption of electricity through dynamic pricing and smart meters.
The UK can be a world leader in all of the above.
September 16, 2021
You say:- “There needs to be better storage of electricity when it is windy”. Fine but we have few technologies to do this cheaply enough such are the laws of physics/chemistry/energy economics. Storing electricity is absurdly expensive. A battery storing Ā£10 of electricity might cost up to Ā£10,00o to build costing more than the electricity it stores in its lifetime. The cheapest way is to pump water to existing hydro reservoirs but even this wastes about 25% of the power, can be expensive and the reservoirs might be full or the lower reservoir empty so you cannot pump it back. Far better to generate as needed in general.
Car to grid is daft as battery depreciated by more than the value of any energy stored.
Carbon capture for gas/coal generation – this wastes much of the energy and is again expensive. Probably more than doubling the cost of any electricity produced.
September 18, 2021
Lots of problems with that. Firstly, wind generation is down about 20% this year, so you would have to go back a long way for a surplus. That also means nothing to spare for electrolysis. The quantity of batteries required to bridge the gaps would entail spending something of the order of Ā£1 trillion a year on batteries. Car batteries are not going to solve these problems. Exporting surplus wind power is not good business at negative prices. We did that last year during low demand under lockdown. The only commercial carbon capture operations use CO2 flooding to help produce more from oil fields. Otherwise you are simply pouring money down a hole.
We are already running the price experiment. Anyone on the Octopus Agile Tariff will have tried to close down their homes and move in with the neighbours. Meanwhile industry is shutting down because it can’t afford the high prices. 2 fertiliser plants, and I saw Alcoa reselling power rather than run their aluminium operations the other day, and doubtless many more. Shut the economy and noone can afford an energy bill. Not something to aspire to world leadership in.
September 16, 2021
Hallelujah. At last you’ve noticed after I’ve been banging on about it for the last 3 years.
September 16, 2021
Why do you keep using the term electric revolution so often, as if to make out that this appalling governmentās mess of energy related actions or inactions is somehow rational and cohesive? If there are aspects of policy you agree with then just say so. Calling it all a ārevolutionā implies its all necessary and desirable, when in fact its founded on the efforts of very influential renewable energy lobbyists and highly questionable computer modelling.
Reply The net zero ambition is clearly a revolution given the wish by 2050 to end fossil fuel use for most purposes. Revolution is a word which some people see as praise and some as a threat – it is intended to be neutral
September 16, 2021
Right to reply ā people do revolution, governments do dictate
September 16, 2021
If the money spent (or to be spent)on HS2 were diverted to improving our own domestic energy requirements, we would be better served. We sit on a mountain of coal. Surely the technology exists today to provide the bulk of our domestic energy from clean, coal-powered stations. We should not be importing coal (or wood chips) from anywhere.
September 16, 2021
Correct and the most sensible idea of the day
We sit on an island of the best quality coal in the world and with modern technology; the processes and filters ensure its clean…..the reason we don’t use it is 100% political and the rest of the world are laughing at us for not using it
September 16, 2021
Quite right Excalibur
September 16, 2021
+1
With the internet giving the ability to research all subjects it surprises me how all governments can succeed in pushing their trash projects.
But their use of behavioural phycologists succeed. I am surprised daily by the numbers still wearing muzzles. Global warming!! Not man made, just an attempt at people manipulation- fight them to save your lives.
Low carbon generation will always be minor and very expensive. Nut nut is just a screwball with little intelligence, it will be good to see the back of that pair!
September 16, 2021
+1
The only possible conclusion is that we must be nobbled industrially. That is the global agenda.
We must level down and allow others to have their Industrial Revolution.( And not complain!)
If you have ever heard so much utter rot.
That new coal mine in Cumbria was not allowed I believe.
September 16, 2021
The coking coal extracted from Cumbria will put future generations survival at serious risk. Well done to those protesters for being so public spirited. Meanwhile, the Chinese have recently completed a railway from the mining areas of Mongolia that will carry 200,000,000 tons of coal into China each year….but that’s ok as I don’t think Extinction Rebellion have any plans to disrupt it.
September 16, 2021
I’m sure I speak for many when I say that I would enjoy watching XR trying.
September 16, 2021
+lots
You do!
Oh yes!
September 16, 2021
+1
September 16, 2021
It will be a case of pollution transfer to allow grandstanding .
September 16, 2021
How long before this government’s ridiculous and pointless green agenda cause the lights to go off on a regular basis? Not long I suspect and I wonder what they’ll blame it on. Covid most likely.
September 16, 2021
Alan H – Don’t worry – – the elite won’t ever be short of electricity – – They will have made sure of that.
September 17, 2021
Indeed, they(āll) have their roofs covered with solar panels, some batteries fed by these panels and theyāll rely on ātime-of-use electricity tariffsā to minimise what they might have to pay to a standard electricity company.
And contrary to what LL once said solar panel output even in daytime overcast skies does not go to zero. Otherwise Norsk Solar and REC (two Norwegian solar panel manufacturers) and Norwegian installer companies like Bergen Elektro & Varme, Eidsiva Energi, Elektroxperten (and plenty of others) would not be around.
September 16, 2021
They blame everything on climate change nowadays. Can the fire in France be blamed on global warming or extreme weather they will be asking.
September 16, 2021
Whether it is global warming or extreme weather is a moot point. In this little corner of France I know, maximum July-August temperatures were going to 30-32 C thirty years ago when I was there in summer. Over the last four years some summer days saw temperatures going to 38-39 C. Fortunately in this area it is usually quite dry, with 60-80% relative humidity.
But doctors have said that at 38+ and 100% relative humidity, bodies stop sweating and just keep heating with possible large impact on health.
As a good student of IPCC, P2 would say global annual mean temperature has increased by 1.3 C, never realising it seems that an average increase of 1.3 C can translate locally and for a couple of days to increases a bitty more than 1.3C.
But not everybody actually understands the consequences of what they read.
September 16, 2021
Thanks for the mention hef.
When I point out examples of colder than average temperatures in local areas you guys say it is weather not climate.
Strikes me climate change can be anything you want it to be.
Hotter, drier, wetter or colder.
It was just called global warming for many years, then catastrophic was added.
All we heard was how hot is going to get.
Then after predictions of big temperature rises post 2000 never happened they called it climate change.
Which is rather clever as it is very difficult to argue against.
Perhaps you’ve had a few hotter than average summers like we have happen here in the UK over decades.
September 16, 2021
I would also recommend a website…extinctionclock.org….
They have collated hundreds of dire predictions on the climate (mainly) and their results over decades.
September 16, 2021
Peter2
your deep knowledge of the scientific explanations of the sustainability going forward are so interesting and just shows how deep your knowledge is. thank you
September 17, 2021
Instead of your childish sarcasm try the website I have suggested and you might gain some deep knowledge of your own billy.
September 17, 2021
P2, and interestingly enough some of the points made on extinctionclock.org are happening, maybe not on the date predicted but certainly getting there.
Just a few of them, just for āfunā:
* āThe snow on the Kilimanjaro will disappear in 20 yearsā (2009). I was at its foot on the Kenyan side (Amboseli National Park) in 2017, and compared to the usual well known pictures, there was only one third left of the snow cover at the top.
* As announced in 2009, āHoover Dam will be a dry hole by 2021ā has not happened but the water level as shown in numerous pictures this spring is down by about 100 ft (average height of the surface water above sea level 1965-1995 1190 ft, this year 1090 ft).
* May 2008, ā50 million climate refugees by 2010ā has not happened either, but could you tell me how many of these Middle Eastern and African migrants arriving in Europe have been put on the road/sea because of deteriorating weather/climate conditions?
* 08/01/2020 āClimate will reshape global, national and local politicsā according to an Australian politician. Hasnāt it already started?
And have you ever been curious enough to look at present maps of water stress?
September 17, 2021
And the other hundreds of failed claims heffy?
Re your examples.
Not very good ones really.
Kilamanjaro still has snow contrary to the prediction
The Hoover dam still has water contrary to the prediction
50 million climate refugees…didn’t happen.
I guess there has been some political change created by the climate change lobby but totally reshaped globally nationally and locally?
No it hasn’t happened.
September 16, 2021
andy will blame brexit.
September 16, 2021
The only zero and low(er) carbon sources of fuel for electricity production which exist at the sort of scale we need, based on existing technologies, are nuclear and natural gas. It would be better to get started with our own shale gas extraction than to rely on imports from unreliable suppliers like Russia (and perhaps even France given some of Macronās comments). Perhaps nuclear fusion will arrive, perhaps it wonāt, so we canāt rely on that.
Ministers either need to get a grip on this issue – ie a personal understanding of the science and technology and the numbers – or stop posturing about green policies and accept that ānet zeroā is an an un- achievable nonsense. (But a very expensive and damaging one while we try to get there).
September 16, 2021
Russia has always been a reliable supplier,ask Germany.I think you will find that Ukraine through which most Russian gas used to transit was the problem-not paying it’s bills and syphoning off supplies meant for other,paying customers.Nordstream I and II solve that problem-by cutting Ukraine out of the network.
September 16, 2021
They need the money, but one day they won’t and guess what will happen to the energy supply Europe relies on?
September 17, 2021
Russia is already flush with money-record trade surplus last month;record international reserves(gold and forex) too.
September 16, 2021
Amazing isn’t it, that we strive to become politically independent, but rely more and more on imported energy, which is the heart beat of any economy, but the Government has no sensible real or fixed plans to resolve that situation.
Good grief, if we have an imbalance of power now when the days are long and the weather is warm, what will happen in the winter ?
Then we have the electric car fantasy, and a wish to build over 300,000 new houses a year, which will also need extra power and water, and even with that amount of building we will not keep up with the increasing size of our population.
Is anyone in Government capable of joined up thinking and planning ahead ?
September 16, 2021
I read of a plan to pull the plug on the supply of electric for vehicles ( or would that just be private cars?) when the overall demand is deemed too high.
I think that the answer will be strict rationing.
Great!
September 16, 2021
Luckily it only effects a third of the nation that has the capability to āchargeā from home ie those with a driveway or a garage ā¦the rest of us will have to queue at charging stations
September 16, 2021
+1
Was it you who once mentioned wooden bikes?
I reckon weāll have to start knocking a few together.
Or an electric scooter? But waitā¦ā¦ā¦.
September 16, 2021
I see the Insulation protesters caused another day of disruption yesterday whilst the Police looked on and did nothing for a few hours, whilst the Country stood still.
I am all for more and better insulation as it is of immediate benefit and cost effective, but these eco clowns need action to be taken against them fast.
September 16, 2021
One of the main protestors apparently lives in a farmhouse which was described as ‘poorly insulated’ in an official energy performance certificate. His 2,000 sq ft farmhouse in Carmarthen, South Wales, was given the lowest possible energy rating on the certificate. It is unclear if he has taken steps to improve the rating since it was issued six years ago.
Allowing these people back to protest day after day with no charge is ridiculous. They are stopping people going about their work, drivers only have so many working hours to work and this would result in them having to stay out away from their families overnight, they are selfish self-centred and often hypocrites of the highest order. They should be charged if they glue themselves to the road and charged for the losses of the people they have held up.
September 16, 2021
Please could someone explain to me as to why we don’t use the tidal streams around the British Isles?
They will run 24/7 regardless of the weather and are out of sight. Instead we have these windmills across our countryside and around the coasts that are totally weather dependant with a fairly limited wind speed range in which they can operate.
This summer we have had a number of high pressure systems that have been with us for several days at a time and the wind farms have produced zero power. The same weather patterns can and do occur in winter when the demand for power is more than twice what it is in summer.
I don’t understand the logic can someone explain please
September 18, 2021
The logic is that it is very expensive to extract tidal stream energy, and the sea is a very punishing environment that damages the equipment quite rapidly. The wear on turbine shafts and bearings from the uneven action of waves and currents wears them out rapidly. On top of these cost and maintenance issues, tidal stream energy is actually quite intermittent, depending on the changing tides not only twice a day but over the lunar month. There are relatively few locations where the stream energy is actually dense enough to be worth attempting to harvest. The tidal races around the Orkneys is one: it has been host to several pilot projects, none of which has been able to circumvent the problems and costs.
September 16, 2021
You stood on a manifesto committing you to net zero by 2050 Mr Redwood. If you and your colleagues spent as much time working out how to keep your promise as you all do moaning about it you might actually succeed in delivering it.
2050 is 28 years away. We have plenty of time to fix this – but the Tories stop whinging and starting planning.
Reply I set out my own green agenda to my electors and intend to keep my word
September 16, 2021
āThe first duty of government energy policy is to keep the lights on.ā
Just wait. Theyāll have us spinning recyclables into candles and claiming that the ensuing smoke will ward of the latest virus and that a little bit of immolation does one no harm whatsoever.
September 16, 2021
Still births up 88% in first lockdown it seems, due largely to our āwonderfulā (but often shut and rationed) NHS. Let us hope they can at least keep the electricity running to the hospitals. Ted Heathās power cuts all over again though as a child then I found this quite fun. Better go and buy some tallow candles? Though I suppose efficient LED torches are rather better now – wind up or battery ones. At least it might get the kids off facebook.
September 16, 2021
+many!
September 16, 2021
Whilst Johnson was shuffling his Cabinet of all the talentless yesterday, President Von Der Leyen delivered a very positive speech about Europeās future.
She set out wonderful new opportunities for young Europeans to live and work in each otherās countries. Opportunities denied to young Britons by the Tory Brexit pensioners. She also set out a strong set of values, made it clear Europe needed to act to counter Americaās new period of isolationism – and she highlighted the huge success of the vaccination programmes in many European countries. The first successful vaccine was, of course, developed in the EU.
Eight EU countries are now ahead of the U.K. in terms of % of their populations fully vaccinated against Covid. Italy is the latest country to overtake us – joining France, Belgium, Ireland, Denmark, Spain, Portugal and Malta. Finland is ahead of us on first vaccines. The Netherlands will overtake us soon.
Well done Europe. You stayed United on vaccines and you beat the Brexitists anyway.
Reply So why is unemployment particularly for younger people so much higher in many EU countries than the UK and why do so many migrants wish to come to the UK from the EU?
September 16, 2021
Andy. Why is it better to work in a foreign country instead of ones own? It’s nonsense when everyone does it.
September 16, 2021
Nobody is stopping you from working in your own country. But those who wanted to easily work in more than 30 other countries used to have that choice – until the Tory Brexit pensioners took it away without a mandate from the majority for doing so.
September 16, 2021
You can still live and work in many countries all over the world ncluding Europe Andy.
Just meet their requirements.
September 17, 2021
So now we have to ask for guidance on how we vote from bigots like you
September 18, 2021
I have lived and worked abroad in a number of countries around the world, most of them outside the EU. Why are your horizons so narrow?
September 16, 2021
In the UK 81.4% of adults are now double vaccinated:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations
While in the EU it is only:
“More than 70 per cent of adults in the EU are fully vaccinated.”
And further down in that speech:
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_21_4701
“But what we need is the European Defence Union.
In the last weeks, there have been many discussions on expeditionary forces. On what type and how many we need: battlegroups or EU entry forces.
This is no doubt part of the debate ā and I believe it will be part of the solution.
But the more fundamental issue is why this has not worked in the past.
You can have the most advanced forces in the world ā but if you are never prepared to use them – of what use are they?
What has held us back until now is not just a shortfall of capacity ā it is the lack of political will.
And if we develop this political will, there is a lot that we can do at EU level.”
Somebody once dismissed as “fantasy” the idea that the EU wanted its own army, now who was it?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=parNXIhNXG8
Oh, yes, Nick Clegg …
September 16, 2021
The ambition for a European Union military arrangement is expressly in the Lisbon Treaty.
However, Clegg was correct in that so long as the UK were a member it would ALWAYS veto that.
That ball and chain has now been removed from that ambition, and discussions now have a point. So they are taking place.
What would you expect?
September 16, 2021
He denied the EU had an ambition for its own miliary force.
I’m not bothered.
Why are you MiC?
September 17, 2021
No he didn’t.
He said that it was not true that there was going to be a European Union military. That was premised upon the UK’s avowed intent to veto it indefinitely.
Good luck to them now that the obstacle has gone, but the major players, Germany, France etc. prefer ad hoc arrangements outside the aegis of the European Union, and are agreeable to working with the UK in such alliances. You’ll have to do some research to learn as to whether that view is shifting after recent statements by the US under both Trump and Biden.
September 17, 2021
He said the EU had no ambitions for a military force of its own.
And shouted down anyone who dared to tell him he was wrong.
And not just Clegg there were many in the Remain campaign too.
September 17, 2021
@MiC – yes he did and without qualification.
Nick Clegg wrote in inews on December 13, 2017 at 14:04;
“Mr Farage wants me to accept that it was wrong to claim, as I did in my televised debate with him in 2014, that the prospect of an EU army, airforce and navy was ātotal fantasyā.
Clegg’s statement was premised on nothing at all except his arrogance and dishonesty, or perhaps he never really understood the euphilic’s intentions. So which is it was he gullable, incompetent or deceitful.
As for the rest of your rubbish – we should not support any EU aspirations for empire or meddling.
September 17, 2021
You’re just repeating Pete’s fallacy in more and different words, Dixie.
So long as the UK was a member, the prospect was indeed a fantasy.
September 17, 2021
Many thanks for your post dixie.
EI fans like MiC and andy are always trying to rewrite history.
September 17, 2021
It doesn’t matter what Clegg – of whom I have a low opinion – said anyway.
The ambition is IN THE TREATY so the European Union does indeed have it.
If he expressly said that it wasn’t then he was simply wrong – but no one has posted any link to his doing that as it stands.
There was no hope for it while the UK was a member and on that basis he was correct.
September 17, 2021
It does matter what Clegg and many others said.
That was a direct quote from Clegg.
His own words and still you refuse to see the truth staring you in the face MiC
Quite remarkable how your politics blinds you.
As I originally said, I am not bothered if the EU wants to have it’s own military force.
It seems you are like Clegg, very sensitive and denying about it.
September 18, 2021
@MiC – you are plain wrong.
Your statement about Clegg was incorrect.
I did not give a web “link” because that would involve extra work for our host but I gave you precise information to locate a specific article which shows precisely that you are incorrect.
It is not my problem if your are too lazy to do a little research nor if you cannot understand plain English enough to distinguish between a paraphrase and a quote.
But keep on twisting.
September 18, 2021
To sum up, there was no prospect of the European Union developing its own institutional military so long as the UK was a member.
Now that the UK has left, there appear to be fewer obstacles to realising that Treaty aspiration.
However, any other nation could also veto that.
If you’re bothered less about those facts though, than whether the silly Clegg was lying about what the Lisbon Treaty says, then that says something about you.
If you want to be punctilious, and to prove him a liar, then provide evidence of his denying what the Treaty says, otherwise button it.
September 18, 2021
“Button it”
The point you miss is that it was denied by many including Clegg that the EU had an ambition to have a military force.
Now we know it is true.
PS
The future right to veto was and is now being altered by QMV and is a red herring to the main point.
September 18, 2021
What do you mean “now” for goodness’ sake?
It was there in the Lisbon Treaty, from Day One, in black and white.
But you’d prefer to pretend that it was all a secretive conspiracy – is that it?
The change from unanimity to QMV requires…unanimity, btw.
They may well get that now that the UK has left though.
Voting Leave meant voting for a possible European military then, in effect, didn’t it?
ššš
September 18, 2021
It may have been hidden in a treaty but it was denied by clegg and many other leading lights of the EU elite for years.
But now it is being openly spoken about by the same people.
Are you claiming didnt happen?
ps
qmv is a process in treaties the uk had already signed.
pps
I’m not bothered that the EU has finally come clean and is openly saying what I have known was their ambition for years.
At least they have stopped the ridiculous denial phase.
Seems for you it is a very sensitive topic MiC
September 19, 2021
“Hidden.”
In an international Treaty.
Whose critics claim to know it chapter and verse.
ššš
September 19, 2021
Yes quiety hidden in a treaty of a thousand pages and ignored by the media whilst the EU elite and their compliant politicians carried on denying there was any ambition.
Calling people europhobic and fantasists when they said there was an ambition for the EU to develop it’s own military force.
The veto red herring has no relevance.
It was the deciept and denial for years that is the key thing.
Just as you are denying the obvious evidence and therefore denying the truth.
September 18, 2021
I can hardly believe the utter rubbish that MiC has lowered himself to write about this. Why not just admit that Clegg lied about that, just he and others on the Remain side habitually lied about a multitude of other things, and not just during the referendum campaign but for decades before and now for years since? Does nobody of that vile, unpatriotic, not to say traitorous, persuasion have even a shred of integrity?
Anyway here is something else:
https://www.brexit-watch.org/without-brexit-there-could-be-no-aukus
“Without Brexit there could be no āAUKUSā”
September 18, 2021
Plrrrrrrpt!
September 16, 2021
Reply to reply. John, he never answers because his post is ridiculous in the first place. Why do some people revel in looking stupid?
September 16, 2021
He is what is known as ‘a wind up merchant’ ….spares enough time to write nonsense and hate stuff – – then really does laugh at the outrage. Sir John humours him, but should outlaw the material for ‘hate speech’.
September 16, 2021
I keep saying that Andy is better either ignored or ridiculed, but it is playing into his hands to reply earnestly, as if he doing anything other than enjoying the indignation he sets out to cause.
However I am wasting my time pointing this out.
September 16, 2021
Sir JR
This is about one of the worst replies you have come p with, some Eu countries have low youth unemployment like Denmark and Netherlands, but too many have too high unemplyment,but what does this have to do with Andy mentioning the vaccination sucess in the EU and immigrants of which we take too few. Get real
Reply No answer then to my reasonable question. Why do you hate the UK so much?
September 17, 2021
What an absurd and groundless accusation against Bill, John.
There is no indication whatsoever of his hating this country, quite the opposite.
It seems to me that there are plenty, so blinded by their hatred of other countries and of their peoples, that they cannot see the harm that they do to their own in pursuit of their baleful aims against those, on the other hand.
September 17, 2021
Ridiculous statement John. People do not hate the UK but might consider politicians as a band of scroungers. As an example, you know, the type of history graduates from Oxford, soon going into local politics and getting very quickly offers/incentives to enter boards of directors ā¦ moving to national politics, advising then monitoring privatisation as part of a Government ā¦ and still 40 years later going on daily with their āwisdomā on the world, never mentioning that some of their decisions might have been far from āoptimalā and never apologising.
Is that hating the UK or hating a political system that allows this type of people to flourish?
Labour is not so much better but at least people know what to expect of it. As can be seen almost everyday on this blog, people do not know or do not care about what the top of the Conservative Party really is. And to me, it stinks.
reply I got no incentives to join a Board. I built businesses the hard way. Why do you waste your time coming on here in case my decency allows you to make more snarling and inaccurate comments about me? Why do you revel in being negative?
September 17, 2021
You’re in a very bad mood heffy.
You andy and MiC are rapidly descending into the trolling trio.
Very poor.
September 18, 2021
I think that John let himself down with his low shot against Bill, Pete.
September 18, 2021
Regular personal abuse and sarcastic rudeness aimed at those who simply post comments you dislike, added to endless provocative statements are the plain tools of trolls.
“Button it” you demand of others.
Perhaps take your own advice MiC
September 18, 2021
You poor little victim you.
September 18, 2021
No
I just prefer decent debate instead your style of agressive sarcastic and abusive personal comments.
September 16, 2021
Given the declining uptake of foreign languages in UK schools, it seems young Britons have little interest in living and working in the EU.
September 16, 2021
Why do you think I hate the U.K.? Because I dare to criticise this failed, incompetent government of the minority?
If Johnson does something right Iāll give him credit for it – but that is highly unlikely to happen.
September 16, 2021
If you had just two parties then one would have a majority.
If you have lots of parties then if you add up all the votes for all the other parties then it comes to more than the winner.
Did you do GCSE maths Andy?
September 16, 2021
Petern2
the high acaemic thank you
September 17, 2021
Brighter than your spelling billy.
September 17, 2021
Not much gets past you, does it Pete?
September 17, 2021
Thanks for your compliment MIC
Quiet day?
September 16, 2021
I am so cross that ( if this is true) Johnson believes I will object to ALL protests because of the ludicrous, over the top actions of SOME ( possibly fake) protesters!
Doesnāt he think that the differential treatment by police is noticeable?
As in some get asked if they are comfortable while blocking a road and others are bopped over the head and worse for just listening to a speaker.
And the real objective is to stop ALL PROTEST.
Why? What is the govt. so terrified of?
September 16, 2021
We need to invest in electric power generation and 5G.
September 16, 2021
There is no safety and security or even an economy without having a way to generate power. That is the basic requirement of a UK Government to ensure exists.
In recent years successive Governments have sold off this very basic need that allows the UK to survive to essential Foreign Powers, all subject to the political will of the incumbent of the day in other Countries. Further to this the UK Government has confined the UK to EU Rule and their political scheming to keep the UK subordinate – with out direct EU energy supplies the UK is done for.
What does this UK Government do, it sets about to giving even more direct control of the UK’s economy to Foreign Powers. There is no inclination of this Government to assist in the country in being self-reliant or self-sufficiency, they use taxpayer money to feed the coffers of Foreign Governments. That is why the UK never sees a return in value to the taxpayer.
A ‘virtual signal’ on COP26 – good, permitting XR to disrupt the economy – good. Anything keeps Boris on message with the ultra left loonies – good so on and so on. The UK, in Government who cares! we feather our own nest.
September 16, 2021
You and I are in complete agreement on the need for the UK to be self-sufficient in energy. Unfortunately, your government and your leader do not agree. What are you going to do about this?
I have been saying for ages that we need a greater level of intensity in getting the RR SMRs into production, as these are the short-term solution. In the longer term, nuclear fusion will probably be the answer.
September 16, 2021
There are two huge problems with fusion.
The first is getting a sustained reaction which produces more energy than that required to sustain it.
The second is translating X-rays and gamma rays – which is how most of the energy is radiated from a 100 million K plasma – into something useable.
Since nearly all efforts have hitherto been addressed to the first, work on the second hasn’t really even begun yet.
September 18, 2021
First we need to survive until SMRs might be available. That 10-15 years of potential shortages we must cover.
September 16, 2021
We’ve been moving to this point for decades, with no government willing or able to plan ahead to stop the lights going out.
It was blair that first tried to fool us, that windmills would meet our needs.
So, just what is this net-zero government going to do about this problem – by its record, they will allow the lights to go out, and industry will suffer, many old that don’t die from vaccinations will die from the cold.
Energy and power is vital to any country – are we expected to roll over on this as well and just go along with this planning ineptitude and suffer, for the NHS, or whatever else is more important? I seriously think that will be expected of us.
September 16, 2021
We need more of everything. More food, more water, more sewers, more houses, more roads……. OR we need our politicians to heed the wishes of the majority and end their ruinous policy of mass immigration. Even settled immigrants can see the rank stupidity of open borders. I see the Minister for Mass Immigration, Ms Patel, has kept her job, she is obviously very effective.
September 16, 2021
+1
Now, now.
She thought of the jet ski idea you know.
I thought it was against maritime law to impede shore-bound boats.
But if jet skis can be used why not a great big RN vessel?
September 16, 2021
It is not just the reliance on renewables, its the reliance on foreign Governments to allow the UK, therefore the UK to function. Our everyday energy requirements are in the hands of the Political will of Foreign competing Countries.
There is no reason for it we have the resources and the capability, we just don’t have a Government that understands its own purpose of making sure the UK is safe & secure.
September 16, 2021
+1
I never imagined privatisation would lead to nationalisation under foreign (sometimes hostile) governments.
September 16, 2021
āas and when the electric cars and heating systems take off as consumer itemsā
How is this going to happen? I donāt know anyone who is contemplating buying an electric car or replacing their gas boiler.
Net-zero is just a scam to tax the hardworking British public even more.
September 16, 2021
It never ceases to amaze me that the government are still pursuing the Green idiocy which will result in a return to the dark ages, literally!
We owe all the recent improvements in our lives to fossil fuels, warmth at the touch of a button, a far higher life-expectancy, better health and far too many other things and the government proposes to throw all that away, and for what?
CO2 is hugely beneficial, without it crop yields would would plunge, it literally Greens the planet, Carrieantoinette should have some lessons in the realities of the science which my 10 year old granddaughter perfectly understands
Sheer lunacy
September 17, 2021
So well put. +999
September 18, 2021
I see we are threatened with another CO2 shortage because it is a byproduct of the fertiliser plants that have shut down because energy is too expensive. Onward consequences may include meat supply, as it is used by abattoirs.
September 16, 2021
The UK Governments Net Zero indoctrination is actual about the UK becoming more reliant of other Countries and the political will of those countries than it is about enhancing the quality of life in the UK.
Even when the assembly appears to be in the UK and employs UK citizens it is from foreign production with all profits fed back into the coffers of foreign powers – its call madness. Destroying a UK economy on the back of one mans ego is lunacy.
September 16, 2021
Corky looks on in wonder at human folly.
So, we have a climate crisis determined solely by computer modelling that has been thoroughly invalidated by 30 years of records. The models don’t work. CO2 has minimal, entirely beneficial effect.
We then dream up unworkable fixes for this concocted crisis, with costs and consequences that will cause severe economic and societal disruption.
However even if these fixes were to work, they will not actually deal with a climate crisis even if there were to be one. Their effect will be immeasurable.
The sad thing is that none of this is or was at all difficult to see. Maybe human evolution has gone into reverse.
September 16, 2021
I think you mean ‘unmeasurable’ but otherwise I agree 100%.
September 16, 2021
Apparently another election is in the offing.
Oh no! My nerves will not take it.
CORKY FOR PM.
He certainly could not do a worse job.šø
September 16, 2021
Thats one wise cat
September 16, 2021
There has been nothing wrong with energy supply during the past four decades using coal and nuclear power stations……until this government got its hands on it
What cost the ‘green-revolution’
September 16, 2021
You have explained previously that the U.S.A. engineered recovery for itself by running a cheap energy regime after 2008. Now the U.K. runs a dear energy economy and today CF Industries Holdings (a leading manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products used in fertilizers) released a statement saying that its Billingham and Ince manufacturing facilities have suspended operations “due to high natural gas prices”. A consequence is likely to be higher input costs for agriculture, assuming supplies are still available.
Apparently dwindling flows of Russian gas to Europe have contributed to the gas price surging, with the benchmark U.K. natgas front-month contract having risen almost 400% since March. No doubt the BEIS is on the case.
September 16, 2021
Russia has been sending record amounts of gas to Europe (and certainly honouring it’s contractural committments)but not enough to offset dwindling indigenous EU sources,notably from the Netherlands.
September 16, 2021
@ Mitchel – thanks for the correcting information. Once again we see that a member of the Evil Empire is at the root of ills!
September 18, 2021
They finally woke up today, but are still in denial.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-gas-supply-explainer
September 16, 2021
Apart from āgo greenā I donāt understand this government strategy, vision or directionā¦even yesterdays cabinet reshuffle didnāt really tell us about the mood/feel of the government ā its still a āgo greenā ban everything, control everything, import everything, tax everything government
September 16, 2021
All well and good.
Except the Green Lunatics have taken over energy policy (just as they previously took over Environmental Policy which resulted in the flooding of the Somerset Levels for weeks on end) and they’re more interested in signalling their virtue and banning the use of fossil fuels than keeping the lights on.
The result of the Government NOT clearing out the Green Lunatics from positions of influence/power, is that (a) we are less energy secure now than we have been for a century or more and (b the London is frequently gridlocked and now the M25 is being ground to a halt every day by climate extremists.
Appeasement never works. Whether it’s a potential military aggressor, or Climate Activist aggressors.
September 17, 2021
They’re just protesters, not extremists.
Extremists kill people.
September 17, 2021
Twaddle
They are the extreme wing of the climate lobby.
Therefore they are extremists.
Terrorists kill people.
September 18, 2021
That’s just poor, un-nuanced semantics, Pete.
Terrorists seek to spread terror amongst the public.
Extremists use extreme means such as murder and abduction of their enemy, e.g. the anti-ecologists around the world, who have murdered hundreds of such people, but may have no other agenda.
XR are not by any reasonable definition extremists, though there may be some with that tendency amongst them, just as there are amongst e.g. Trump’s following and others, as we saw.
September 18, 2021
That’s just poor un- nuanced semantics MiC
September 18, 2021
Then you must hope that noone stuck in ambulances died.
September 16, 2021
Hello Sir John,
What could be more stupid & expensive than relying on wind power & solar, which are both unreliable as you have stated, then having to build a reserve system for when wind / solar are not working. Why do our MPs lack simple common sense in the blind pursuit of net zero, which we will never achieve. The security of our energy supply should be the second priority of government, after the security of the UK. I assume you have access to the PM/Ministers which we don’t so why don’t they listen to you? I did not vote conservative for power cuts, tax rises & betraying pensioners. Not much use having a triple lock on pensions if the government does not honour it the first time it costs real money! But lets waste billions on overseas aid, Net Zero, the NHS, Covid 19 support & a far too long furlough scheme, far too many civil servants with fat pensions, HS2 & management consultants & all sorts of other airey fairy schemes. The PM & all MPs should only be paid when we have a balanced budget so there is a real focus on cutting what we spend & a realisation that every pound is precious!
September 16, 2021
And just today – “UK power prices soar after key cable hit by blaze”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58579829
This government wants us to use electric cars, electric heating etc etc… To do that you need security of the supply of electricity. It should be this Government’s policy to bring ALL electricity generation under the control of the UK.
Not to mention “smart meters” whereby you can turn off individual consumers at the click of a mouse…
September 16, 2021
It’s 10am this morning and wind is providing just 2.5% of our electricity! So much for Boris’s idea of us being the Saudi Arabia of wind. If we had twice as many, or a hundred times as many, or a thousand times as many windmills, we would still have zero wind energy when the wind didn’t blow! 2.5% is less than the coal power stations that were recently fired up!
The sun doesn’t shine at night, obvious to some, but not to most politicians, so zero solar at night.
SMR’s are the obvious and logical way forward.
September 16, 2021
MB – Plus Coal fired power stations.
September 16, 2021
As an illustration of the naivety of UK Governments. Todays MsM makes a big splash on the ” Joint AUKUS alliance”, as in the UK and the US will help build an independent Australian defence capability.
The problem there is that the UK submarine fleet is total dependant on the ‘political will’ of the French Government – they supply the eyes and ears of our boats being able to navigate. Why does the French Government have so much control, because the UK Government allowed them to buy up UK defence industry along with most of the UK’s other core security and safety capability. This is not foreign companies buying in, but foreign government taking control.
September 16, 2021
Sir John,
You have been warning about this for a long time!
Why are we able to help Australia produce nuclear powered submarines to deter China, but we have to rely on China to help us produce nuclear powered power stations?
What a mad world we live in.
September 16, 2021
We need more electricity ????? – – but accept 1000 a day who, presumably will not need ANY ??
CLEVER.
September 16, 2021
I wonder if the āguaranteed 100% renewable energy at no extra costā suppliers have been able to keep their promise over the last few weeks. I am often tempted to call them and ask if there is a discount for taking non-renewable energy.
Perhaps we should let market forces decide energy policy. The people who have fallen for the carbon emissions global warming story could opt for renewable energy and those who are not convinced could have non-renewable energy with each group paying the relevant market price. Investment in each form of energy could then be decided by demand. Of course in conditions when the wind doesnāt blow and the sun doesnāt shine the ārenewableā customers would have to go without electricity but that would be their democratic right. I might even be persuaded to have a Smart Meter under these circumstances!
September 16, 2021
This government is like the Blair government. Everything is being done to please the vocal minority/media.
Instead of well thought out decisions based on majority consensus we are getting decisions that will ultimately kill off the economy and are bad for the environment.
We need a new political force but FIRST we need to rid ourselves of the BBC and left wing “educators”, quangos, charities, civil service etc etc otherwise any new movement will be strangled at birth by the unelected.
September 16, 2021
I suspect, Sir John, that MPs’ offices are about to be overwhelmed with people complaining about energy bills. Here’s an example of what’s going on. For the past year my dual-fuel DD was Ā£57/month. A few weeks ago, I was nudged to ‘stay on track’ by increasing it to Ā£62. At the time, I could switch from variable to fixed at Ā£72. Roll on two days: Ā£78. Roll on two more: Ā£107. Your party’s obsession with Green stuff is about to run into the buffers of reality.
September 16, 2021
Now that the wholesale price of electricity has reached Ā£474 per megawatt/hour, we can see chaos coming soon to the competition between energy suppliers. All the smart people will be on fixed energy tariffs and the poorer sectors of society will end up subsidising the fixed tariffs. Many energy suppliers will go to the wall ā these energy price increases cannot be absorbed in the energy companies plans.
When energy is rationed and planned electricity outages of 4 hours a day becomes the norm, I hope the power at Westminster is switched off for 24 hours a day to focus the governmentās minds.
And pity the poor people with smart meters ā no covid jab, no power.
September 16, 2021
The latest energy dashboard now includes the generation embedded at the Distribution level.
https://www.energydashboard.co.uk/live According, to the ESO there is 107 GW of generation currently connected. Theoretically, twice winter maximum demand.
“Wind Onshore” 12,937 MW
“Wind Offshore” 12,160
“Solar” 13,378
“Other renewable” 1,900
“Other” 2,808
“Nuclear” 8,256
“Hydro Run-of-river and pondage” 1,919
“Hydro Pumped Storage” 4,309
“Fossil Oil” 0
“Fossil Hard coal” 5,241
“Fossil Gas” 39,822
“Biomass” 4,528
Installed Generation Capacity 107,258 Megawatts. Winter peak will be circa 50,000 Megawatts.
September 16, 2021
Acorn, When the wind doesn’t blow in winter and its after 4pm, we’re down to 69GW. So not twice the winter maximum demand. When the Coal is closed down as planned, and the existing Nuclear is shut off too, we’re left with a theoretical 55GW. Even closer to the bone. And, realistically, unplanned outages must be expected as well.
September 16, 2021
September and they don’t have enough power. I remember that October was the season of mists and mellow fruitfulness. That England is long gone.
September 16, 2021
I have rigged up my bike to turn a generator to charge a couple of car batteries. Given that I have LEDs for all my lighting, a half hour on the bike each day will keep my lights on. I may freeze to death if the gas supply disappears but at least Iāll be able to read a book whilst freezing.
I am reminded of my childhood in the 1950s. As we left that era behind, I never imagined a government would be so incompetent as to rely on imported gas and electricity.
Iāve ordered a little wind turbine too. The economics are madness but I am not sure how much longer I can manage the bike. Can one get one of those wheels people put in hamstersā cages – but much bigger that I could put my dog on. Put a treat in front of his nose and heāll run until he drops.
September 16, 2021
Could I perhaps suggest a running treadmill before ājack frostā steals all you heat and energy
September 16, 2021
Again, well said – Me. Redwood. Iād love to see you debate this subject with the half wit in No. 10.
September 16, 2021
Off topic, Gavin Barwell, who was Theresa May’s closest aide from June 10 2017 until her departure from office on July 24 2019, now has a book to promote and he has used an interview to express his pessimism about the future of Northern Ireland:
https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit-sausage-war-peace-northern-ireland-theresa-may-chief-of-staff-gavin-barwell-1201618
“Gavin Barwell, who helped draw up the original Brexit deal, said he ādoesnāt see a landing zoneā where both sides could agree a way forward on the controversial Northern Ireland protocol … ”
Well, the key flaw in his thinking now is the same as it was then, and the same as the flaw in Theresa May’s
thinking, revolving around their perception that we were under some compulsion to agree a deal not only with the EU but with an Irish government which had adopted an absurd extreme and intransigent position and would veto any alternative proposal which did not give it everything that it demanded.
As pointed out nearly two years ago here:
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2019/10/04/the-eu-response-to-the-offer/#comment-1060644
referring back two more years to November 26 2017 – how tedious this is becoming!
And now earlier this week Lord Caine revealed more about what happened at that time:
https://hansard.parliament.uk/Lords/2021-09-13/debates/A39209FB-DC2C-44E8-A643-8FB8A1D5D07E/ProtocolOnIrelandNorthernIreland(EUCReport)#contribution-68ED03A6-CB04-483F-ACA3-43E9A145DDDD
“… the first time most of us saw the draft of the joint report was on the morning of Monday 4 December 2017 … We were frankly shocked at what we saw … I stated that the document had every hallmark of having been drafted in Dublin, at which point one very, very senior official replied, āThatās because it largely wasā.”
September 16, 2021
Well, led by Carrie, the dog and Boris who are seemingly blind to the answers.
Fracked gas from Northern England.
Rolls Royce’s mini atomic power units.
Concentration on Hydrogen as a means of propulsion and as a means of domestic heating and cooking.
I want marketable solutions to the challenge of reducing atmospheric pollution, not the current green mantra of lies. I also wish to reduce, if not elliminate our dependence on interconnectors. The current drive to all electric is an untidy, uneconomic , drive to hell in a handcart. You can all check this out. I was assured that the current grid with its output limitations can only sustain six Teslas in a street on charge before trips start popping. All from an electrical engineer who used to work on the grid. It is the worst thought out solution to our future that anyone could imagine. What do you expect from lawyers and others benefitting from the windmill bonanza.
September 16, 2021
Agree Agricola. The only people who think all this is a good idea are the ones making shed loads of money out of it. Our governments both present and previous are a bunch of numpties who have been duped big time and we the minions will have to pay for their folly.
September 16, 2021
All good points and energy supply mechanisms that I agree with
However we are only discussing this issue as this government and its MPs believe the IPCC report that man-made co2 is the root cause that, as the models suggest, will lead to a global temperature rise of 1.5 degree and the end of the world
September 16, 2021
āThe first duty of government energy policy is to keep the lights on.ā
Yes, you would think so and expect that even arts educated ministers who donāt know a volt from an amp would recognise that we need a reliable supply of electricity.
There are two groups who want to see an energy crisis.
The first group are the Marxists (XR etc.) who wish see economic decline and social unrest as a means to revolution and power.
The second group see interrupted power supplies and rationing as an opportunity to make a lot of money.
We have seen both groups at work during the Covid pandemic.
September 16, 2021
Wind and solar renewables will never provide enough electricity for the UK, even if the wind always blew and the sun always shone. There simply isn’t enough real estate on which to put the wind turbines and solar panels.
As, with most cases in the supply of a resource, whether it be mineral or oil extraction or geographic location for wind or sun, the best sites are utilised first. Thereafter, there’s a diminishing return, since sites become less optimum, because they’re more costly to construct or the resource available is smaller.
It’s therefore reasonable to say that doubling the geographic footprint of current wind and solar farms will not result in a doubling of capacity, which is miserable and intermittent at best.
September 16, 2021
I’ve been writing about this on my blog: https://watt-logic.com/2021/09/15/energy-prices-soar/
We’re facing a supply-side crisis in energy. The electricity problems have been obvious to market insiders for a long time – we don’t have enough reliable dispatchable capacity when renewable output is low. The nuclear fleet is on its last legs – there are currently 5 reactors offline, only 1 of which is a planned outage. There were several CCGTs out on planned and unplanned maintenance at the start of last week, and now there’s an extended outage on IFA (although it was already down to half capacity when the fire started).
These problems are compounded by a separate supply crisis in gas where European gas supplies are very strained. There’s even talk about supply disruptions and actual shortages – I don’t know how credible they are – but as we no longer have any large-scale seasonal gas storage, we have no way to respond to this crisis. We’re simply price takers.
So what should be done?
1. There are 2 perfectly good CCGTs sitting idle because their operator (Calon) went bust. Get them out of mothballs asap.
2. Extend the life of the remaining coal plant to 2026 which is the projected start date for Hinkley Point C. Yes, it’s controversial, but not as much as extremely high prices, lots of suppliers failing, and the potential for blackouts. The decision to close them was made when we thought the AGRs would stay open to 2026 and be available, but as this is now unlikely, something needs to be done. There were times last winter when they met 10% of demand – we still need them.
3. Approve Wylfa Newydd. ABWRs were built on time (in c 4 years) and on budget in Japan pre-Fukushima which is more than can be said for the failed EPR technology. We can’t have all our eggs in one basket, particularly a basket that’s as full of holes as EPR is.
4. Suspend the retail price cap and/or give Ofgem emergency powers to revise it more often. Small suppliers who have limited access to hedging cannot cope with prices doubling in a week. More are going bust even before the RO late payment deadline next month which typically tips a few over the edge. We’re facing chaos and people on fixed price tariffs could see their prices double overnight if their supplier goes bust.
5. Reconsider NG ESO’s statutory duties. Currently it only has to meet the SQSS at the lowest reasonable cost, but there’s a big gap between tight margins that lead to high prices and blackouts. Changing the way the system is operated could reduce costs for consumers when margins are tight if NG ESO had to also try to minimise price volatility.
We’re sleepwalking into an energy crisis and things could get very expensive indeed. Add this to the recently announced tax rises and inflation is about to ramp significantly. We can expect to see many more people in fuel poverty as a result.
September 16, 2021
There are currently 28 interconnector projects totalling 33 GW of import capacity from mainland Europe.
There are 20 GW of grid scale battery storage projects with capacities between half an hour and four hours, which will eventually be twinned with Solar PV arrays on shore; so they can compete as one unit, in the capacity and balancing markets.
There are forecast to be 11 million Battery Electric Vehicles in the UK by 2030; treble that by 2040, all being charged by smart chargers. The latter will be able to export power (up to circa 38 GW), from all those vehicles, back into the grid (known as V2G) for short periods, should grid conditions; and prices, demand it.
Meanwhile, my new electric and gas supplier still can’t extract data from my “smart” gas and electric meters. I am required to read the meters monthly and fill in an online form.
The UK is never going to be able to supply its own gas and electric needs. Nobody goes gas fracking in geological conditions like the UK has.
September 17, 2021
And these geological conditions are what beyond a bunch of ill informed nimbies. Your imagined conditions did not prsvent os mining coal, compare the processes, or drilling for oil. Making broad brushstroke statements is one thing, facts are totally different.
September 19, 2021
Interconnectors won’t help when the markets we’re connected to have the same weather as we do, which is the case for all the markets except for Norway, and it’s not clear that Norway can balance the whole of Europe with its hydro system. In Winter 2019 we exported for 13% of the hours with the 5% highest demand – market rules mean we can and do export while our demand is high.
On EVs, first of all not everyone will use smart charging, and there will be a real headache if everyone tries to charge their cars when they come home from work in the evening peak. This could only be deterred by high pricing, but it couldn’t be prevented.
Secondly, EVs and grid-scale batteries rely on lithium and cobalt – scarce materials, and since every developed nation is currently pushing EVs and batteries there may simply not be enough. There is also the issue that neither material is environmentally sustainable, and there are already water disputes in South America relating to lithium processing and concerns over the use of child labour in cobalt mines in the Congo.
Finally on batteries – there is currenly about 1 GW of batteries connected to the grid, but 1 GW of batteries is not the same as 1 GW generation capacity. Batteries discharge in between 1 and 4 hours (c1.5 on average). Last winter we had 12 consecutive days with almost no renewable output which is 17,000 hours. Those batteries were able to cover about 10 minutes of that time. So 40 GW of batteries would only provide about 6.5 hours of backup – not sure what we’d do for the other 11.75 days…
Batteries and interconnectors are not the solution to our problems – they may help at times, but they cannot be relied upon.
September 18, 2021
Good to see your sane commentary echoed here. I’d add as I noted over at your blog that government could also issue extra emissions permits and take the heat out of the carbon price which is adding about Ā£20/MWh to gas costs and Ā£50/MWh to coal. High price of the commodities is disincentive enough to using them unnecessarily. At the moment greater wind shortage simply leads to higher fossil fuel burn and even higher carbon and electricity prices.
September 16, 2021
I am in France and was with an aeronautical engineer last night. He said that engineers there cannot believe that the government knows what it is doing following the new agenda. They have 80% nuclear about to be closed in ten years and no way to back up renewables or store enough electrical energy. The only new reactor is an over complicated disaster and is the one or two which the UK has chosen. The UK has only 20% nuclear and aging gas stations wearing out more quickly because of wind taking precedence. Both countries will be in trouble because of incompetent politicians and green activist civil servants.
September 16, 2021
China is about to test a nuclear facility using thorium cooled by salt. Watch this space. They are so far ahead of the west its not true. We will be flapping around with wind farms still and they will have clean and safe nuclear. Who are the dummies?
September 17, 2021
TBF thorium reactors were developed by the US, but the decision to go with uranium ones was taken because they also provide fissile material for the weapons programme.
Yes, thorium offers a more abundant energy supply than uranium, vastly safer operation, and with far less problematic waste storage. Accelerator-driven reactors are incapable of meltdown, and can even be used to convert existing waste into less dangerous material.
It may well be the answer.
September 17, 2021
They have just started work on the construction of four Russian-designed reactors too.
September 18, 2021
Don’t get too excited. It’s a 2MW research reactor. There are still many technical hurdles to be overcome before thorium can offer a cost competitive alternative.
September 18, 2021
“Cost competitive” can mean many things, depending on how those costs are calculated.
September 16, 2021
Stred – Nothing wrong with the Westinghouse technology of Sizewell B so why the change???? Follow the money?????
September 16, 2021
Sir John, in just how many headings are you at odds with your party and its leader, either policies or practises? The impression I have is that you are in a party which bears no relation to your views.
September 16, 2021
It’s big industry that has look out below not the people with energy cap, plants already shuttering with high gas price’s and factories having put price’s up.
September 16, 2021
They do a way with VAT on electic and gas next week if they want industry to carry on.
September 16, 2021
Off topic, a sensible contribution from Lord Moylan this morning, pointing out that just because we have left the EU that does not necessarily mean we should impose new checks on goods we import from them:
https://hansard.parliament.uk/lords/2021-09-16/debates/DFCD47C2-3429-45A9-92A7-30EAD00279FD/ImportsFromEUToGBBusinessPreparation
“My Lords, I welcome this delay, and indeed I hope that it becomes permanent. EU goods are safe, and the food is wholesome; we have been using them and eating it for 40 years. Trade rules do not need to be reciprocal, and, if the European Union chooses stupidly to impose upon its consumers the penalties of protectionism, there is no need for us to reciprocate. Does my noble friend agree that it is about time that the British Government were setting a free trade example to the European Union, and indeed showing it that such an approach could be applied with benefit on the UKās border with Ireland, in place of the undemocratic protocol?”
Personally I would go beyond that and complain to the WTO about the unnecessary checks and controls that France and Ireland are imposing on our food and drink exports even though so far we are still operating to the same EU standards, in defiance of Article 7 of the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement:
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2021/09/14/bus-travel/#comment-1259639
Until we materially diverge from EU standards there is no objective justification for applying checks which were not applied when we were in the EU and its Single Market, and doing so is “arbitrary or unjustifiable discrimination, or a disguised restriction on international trade”.
September 16, 2021
I’ve had no time to read the postings yet (I have another life), so forgive if duplication with others.
This stupid position we find ourselves in goes back years to lack of decision over nuclear power generation. The best security was always multiple sources NOT including buying ‘essential’ supplies from abroad. It really is getting too late to deal with the nightmare the leftie green monsters are steering us towards. No gas heating, for industrial supply, no more coal to fall back on, inadequate wind generation, inadequate solar, low hydroelectric power plant – and yet we expect electrical demands to ‘run everything’ in but a few years. Shambles of consecutive governments’ malaise.
September 16, 2021
Why oh Why are we not developing tidal power???? Have the idiots in charge of the mad house n0t noticed that we are surrounded by such a reliable power generating source?
September 18, 2021
Because it’s expensive, intermittent and needs 100% backup since there are lengthy periods when it generates nothing at all. This chart gives an idea of the sort of output you could expect from a Severn barrage as tides range over the lunar cycle.
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/D0N7k/1/
September 16, 2021
Sir John.
You are correct to draw attention to U.K.’s serious dependence on imported energy sources.
BUT WHY DO YOU NOT CRY OUT FOR INCREASED NUCLEAR CAPACITY?
September 16, 2021
The Middle-East & Asia are attempting to build nuclear power stations, South America is trying its best to increase their small number and itās a dream of Africa to have sustainable cheap nuclear powerā¦ā¦while its the current UK policy to decrease its capacity and capability
September 16, 2021
Sir John – once people begin to understand the scale of the energy price increases in the UK they will go berserk. The very cheapest new fixed tariff on the market is very nearly *twice* my current 1-year fix (November 2020) for both Gas & Electricity. Add in the higher usage for government-imposed stays at home, and the final energy expenditure is unaffordable. Please remind your colleagues that their constituents pay for their own full domestic energy costs themselves!
Why are Standing Charges so high? They do not in any wise reflect real expenditure on the provision and infrastructure for one household – and if NG is screwing swingeing increases out of the energy firms, surely the regulator should tame its greed.
There’s your inflation, right there.
September 16, 2021
That was a timely article in the Daily Telegraph on monday 13th september-Quoting from the article-
Tony Lodge – a research fellow at the Centre for Policy Studies headlines the piece –
Our energy policy needs a radical rethink .Relying on patchy renewables and importing electricity from the EU is simply not sustainable.
11,000 onshore and offshore wind turbines in the UK which together should deliver over 20% of electricity supplies . Wind free weather early last week meant they averaged approx 3%.
Since 2006, EU rules have demanded the closure of a third of Britain`s power stations .This reduction ran in tandem with the closure of older nuclear power stations.In Britain,power supplies from these plants have not been replaced like for like with cleaner equivalent capacity ,and ministers have instead largely opted to rely on more renewables and importing electricity from the EU.
Compounding the problem,we have chosen to take a bold moral lead on climate change and energy policy,which our rivals have mostly ignored.
Power bills for manufacturing firms are now a third higher than most EU rivals .Some sectors have suffered particularly badly ; the steel industry faces costs 80% higher than in France………….
September 16, 2021
If I switch energy company now I would have to pay Ā£650 extra a year.
September 16, 2021
From The Guardian 1st August 2008: “We found that, given all of the above, 100 months from today we will reach a concentration of greenhouse gases at which it is no longer ‘likely’ that we will stay below the 2C temperature rise threshold. […] So what can our own government do to turn things around today? Over the next 100 months, they could launch a Green New Deal”.
Is this what started Boris off and why we havenāt enough electricity today
September 17, 2021
Why is it that successive governments have been so clueless that we have been brought to a state where we cannot even provide enough power for our current needs, let alone the electric revolution that every political party is now signed up to ?
We already have the most expensive power in Europe thanks to the green levies imposed by Conservative governments that are supposed to be business-friendly. Clearly, they are not.
I suspect most of those contributing here could easily come up with a ten-year road map to provide us with energy security but why can’t the government ?
It would be relatively simple :
Increase the supply of gas generation and storagein the short term .
Fast track the production of Rolls Royce’s small, modular nuclear power stations.
Consider building new nuclear stations of a simpler design than Hinkley Point with a view to rolling out, say, ten or more over the next 15 years and certainly before the electic car and heat pump revolution takes place ( if it ever happens ). If we were to build this number of nuclear stations, we would not need to buy them from France, we could invest and develop them ourselves. We have the necessary Nuclear technology as we have been building reactors for submarines for decades. They do not need to be ground-breaking new designs, they could be based on updated current technology that is know to work.
Only allow new wind and solar farms if the proposal includes an adequate level of backup power generation for when there is no wind and insufficient sunlight. This will become more important when millions of electric vehicles are going to be connected to the grid for overnight charging. Does this government actually realise that the sun does not shine at night ?
September 19, 2021
There is no fast-track for gas storage sadly. Centrica closed Rough because it needed a lot if investment to keep it going (more than Ā£1 bn), and although you can build CCGTs quickly and cheaply on a Ā£/MW basis, if gas supplies are at risk then why bother?
ABWRs are definitely a better bet than the EPR (which anyone with any sense knew a decade ago), and while SMRs show promise they need a lot of upfront capital (a few Ā£bn) to get the fabs going.
The short-term solutions are to re-open the Calon CCGTs and keep the remaining coal plants online, coal having the benefit of being easy to store – all you need is some space and some heavy equipment to regularly turn it to reduce the risk of auto-combustion.
September 17, 2021
The winter of 2021/2022 was the worst in living memory. The cold came early, ironically snowing for COP26, and stayed.
Demand for energy was unprecedented. A mixture of bad luck, external shocks, breakdowns, and minimal generation from renewables resulted in blackouts and disruption of gas supply.
The impact on the economy made Covid look like a walk in the park. The number of deaths may not be ever known but it was certainly in the 100,000’s.
Pray.
September 17, 2021
very topical right now. A daughter lives in a once quiet village a few miles NW of Oxford, yes near the joke of a major A road – the A40. Developers decided they could build on the outskirts, then within, then mile upon mile of similar estate building. Prices almost central Oxford (eye-watering) -some still unsold. I wonder why – could it be potential purchasers had a leisurely! drive out on the A40 and thought ‘what happens in the commute hours when thousands of us must drive east on the A40, and then later drive west on it?’ Enthusiasm wanes quickly. So today no electricity…the shape of things to come? Surprisingly text messages arrived although the network co V is mostly useless coverage. So WFH was at a standstill. Just heard power will be back -possibly an overhead cable came down on a footpath nearby. So when walking out there watch the skies – not for birds but power cables falling.
September 17, 2021
If you want to lose the election..
1) don’t keep the lights on
2) don’t push back the illegal migrants
3) increase taxation without making efficiencies in NHS and HMG and quangos
4) Allow councils to increase council tax way above what it is reasonable.
5) Omit purging the BBC
Priorities and strategies.. please help get a grip as nobody sane wants lolabour
September 18, 2021
Labour are edging closer to winning just by doing nothing…..something the tories need to learn
September 18, 2021
‘We need more electricity’ – only to serve more and more people. Arrange for fewer people then less electricity needed, fewer gadgets to produce it, fewer pollution problems, fewer water scarcity issues, fewer houses needed, fewer imports needed, less traffic grid lock etc., etc. Oh, who would want that?
Forget about prosperous countries with populations lower than 10 million, we in the UK want 70, 80 million plus so we can make the UK a living hell – what’s not to like?