The main Central Banks of the world have been very relaxed about inflation. They have all argued that as lockdowns end there will be a brief uptick in inflation, which will then subside. The USA has been particularly strong on this view and has continued with massive dollar creation as well as ultra low interest rates to promote a stronger and quicker recovery. I have always thought they were overdoing it. The ECB has also persevered with a massive Euro creation programme, against more deflationary pressures in the deficit countries. It is having the predictable inflationary effect on the German economy whilst supplying some boost to the usually sluggish Italian one. The UK authorities started reining in earlier than the others and run the risk of slowing growth too much. As a very import dependent economy the UK will import a lot of inflation from the others unless sterling strengthens more.
Some at The ECB and Fed and the Bank of England economist are now saying that maybe inflation is going to go higher and last longer than their institutions have been saying. There is a surprise! What did they expect given the volume of dollars the Fed decided to tip into the system? What should Germany expect given the scale of Euro creation going on? The UK has to beware that fuel inflation is going to be fast thanks to the unacceptable reliance on imported and spot market energy. There will be wage growth as the UK sorts out years of low pay in areas from farming through driving to catering where wages were kept down by many migrants arriving to take the jobs. We face higher bills for transport, home heating and a range of goods that rely on gas for their manufacture.
The UK needs to work away at reducing its dependence on imports in general, and on imports with highly volatile day to day prices in particular. We have just seen a wild swing in the price of timber, where we import so much of what we need for housebuilding, for biomass power stations and for furniture. Given the passion to grow more trees, why dont we produce more of our own? We have just had to import a large amount of very expensive gas to combat a shortage of wind in our power system. It makes little sense to pay top prices for imported LNG, dragged around the world in diesel guzzling tankers when we could supply more of our own under long term sensibly priced contracts. Why do we not put in more gas storage while we are about it, so we can draw on stocks for any temporary high price shock?
The main Central Banks have talked themselves into a corner. If they now think they were too blase about inflation, they need to make sure their adjustments to the amount of money they create is not at the same time allied to rises in rates as this would likely tip economies into stagflation or even into recession. It’s a tricky path. The Fed has most to do to decelerate from a very inflationary stance. The ECB has more excuse to wean itself off money creation more gently, as the southern economies are more sluggish. It will leave Germany suffering from a nasty inflation, needing to buy in a lot of foreign fossil fuel to keep the factories turning.The Bank of England has already announced an end to money creation.
October 10, 2021
The central banks are accountable to no-one. They can say one thing one month and the opposite three months later and there will be no comeback, least of all from the tame media which provide them with the platform for their statements. Blair denied there would be terrorist blowback from the Iraq war. Whether he was right, whether he was believed, didn’t matter to him. He got away with it. In the same way, central banks get away with claiming there will be no serious inflationary blowback from the lockdown-funding policies we’ve seen this year and last. You don’t need SJR’s economics background to understand that that cannot be. The central banks are blagging it, because they can.
October 10, 2021
And now Ferguson is doing it again with a prediction of 60,000 âflu deaths because our immune systems have been wrecked by experimentation, incarceration and no doubt fear and stress ( this time he may have a point)
If they had studied past plagues, ancient windmills and the effects of forgery rather than making unfounded and random predictions we would not be in this mess.
Oh I keep forgettingâŚthis mess ( creative chaos) was the plan all alongâŚ..
October 10, 2021
Yes, Everh., and we’re even paying for this man! Well, us and Bill Gates…
It’s amazing how a real cynic like Ferguson is able to take the damage he’s already done, and then turn it into an argument why you should do what he says. How does he get away with it?
October 10, 2021
+1
I imagine itâs because it is what the string-pullers want.
Remember when he killed 6.5 million farm animals?
A nice little step towards expensive or unobtainable meat.
October 10, 2021
Hat Man good points – Just ask two questions. Who owns and controls the central banks and who owns and controls the media. Say no more.
October 10, 2021
Q. When the BoE ends ‘money creation’ who will buy UK gilts? And if demand is slight, doesn’t that mean that interest rates will have to rise, substantially?
Reply Savers, pension funds, insurance cos etc will keep on buying
October 10, 2021
I wouldn’t bank on it.
We could start fracking and be self sufficient in gas but Carrie Antoinette says no.
To he’ll in a hand cart. It’s time Johnson was replaced by a Conservative PM
October 10, 2021
Ian Wragg +1 couldnât agree more.
October 10, 2021
hear hear
October 10, 2021
IW – Your final sentence. Where are you going to find one???
October 10, 2021
+1 Except for the handful of true Tory MPs like our host, there arenât that many candidates to replace him. There seems to be a massive shortage of Conservatives in parliament.
October 10, 2021
JoolsB: “There seems to be a massive shortage of Conservatives in parliament.”
There aren’t that many in the Conservative party, either.
October 10, 2021
No, JR is correct here. Pension funds and so on have to keep buying Government debt because that is how they fund themselves.. Without Government debt they can’t generate the income to pay you.
And as for Banks, didn’t we introduce new regulations after the last housing crisis to force Banks to buy less volatile debt like mortgages and more stable assets like Government debt?
Government debt is the most stable, high quality asset that you can buy. That is mostly the reason why the yields are so low.
October 11, 2021
“Government debt is the most stable, high quality asset that you can buy. That is mostly the reason why the yields are so low.”
That depends on how much you debase your currency of course, so very easy to do with a FIAT currency… It’s all going to end in tears I’m afraid.
October 10, 2021
The Treasury’s debt management arm recently decided to cut back heavily on issues of index-linked gilts. That is surely a sign, if one were needed, that higher inflation over several years is central to the authorities’ planning to deal with the debt burden acquired during the Covid episode.
October 10, 2021
I am persuaded by the weight of evidence to conclude that what we are seeing is being deliberately engineered.
We are fortunate at least in that the British people have the intelligence and flexibility of action to continually overcome the destructive consequences of public policy makers and political leaders who take decisions that are quite obviously not in the interests of the British people.
It was Margaret Thatcher who truly understood the importance of the supply side infrastructure in pushing down prices. Unleashing entrepreneurs and releasing them from political restrictions to build supply by building companies of all sizes that provided the material comforts of life. She also understood that failure tends to come from the political sector not from the private sector
Political ideology is destroying our moral and civil world. It does have the capacity to destroy our material world as well
Politics is not the answer to the problems we face today.
October 10, 2021
+1 Well said DOM
October 10, 2021
+ spot on!
Or as an alarmingly leftist, Blair-loathing person once said to naive moi when I queried the Blair govtâs anti-British actions
â They just donât care!â.
October 10, 2021
+10
October 10, 2021
DOM, +1, Hear!Hear!
October 10, 2021
@DOM +1 correct in every way
October 10, 2021
It was always hitherto the case that Tories were very worried by wage inflation on the pretext that it would feed through to general inflation*.
However, now, we see that they proudly claim that brexit is the cause of this, and furthermore, that it is absolutely a Good Thing.
Whey ever the change, one wonders?
* Actually, because it just reduced the spending power of the employer class, more like.
October 10, 2021
The Bank of England may have announced an end to money creation but âthe banksâ will carry on creating as much money as they like (out of thin air) and lending it, primarily (85%), into the housing market as mortgages. Which is why house prices, and rents, just keep going up and up and up.
It is the biggest element of inflation that affects the majority of people. Yet government sanctions ever higher housing costs by refusing to regulate how much money banks can create.
A question on Question Time on Friday was â50 years ago a man could support his family on his wage – now, even two wages are not enough. What went wrong and how can it be fixed?
The price of housing got a mention but it was in the context of âitâs just one of those thingsâ. No mention of the real reason – that the mortgage lending banks lend more and more money into housing to make more and more money.
October 10, 2021
I donât think that the âtwo wagesâ helped much.
In order to get cheap labour, steal more tax money, grow the economy and destroy the family governments jettisoned women into the workplace in the name of âequalityâ.
Lo and behold âŚa manâs wages were mightily reduced.
Magic.
October 10, 2021
Renting, Council Tax, insurances, fuel and water costs, all things the vast majority of us have to pay, are not included when inflation is calculated. Just the cost of goods, which do not have to be bought (ie the latest iPhone), minor food costs (eg bread and milk) and labour costs, which can be offshored or robotised.
I therefore consider the ‘Official’ Inflation Figures to be unreliable and best ignored.
October 10, 2021
+1 Agreed. A despicable way to try and claim inflation is not as high as it actually is. And from the people who live off the taxpayers money. Most of them could barely be able to earn minimum wage, if they had to do some real working, instead of sanctimoniously spouting garbage and lies.
October 10, 2021
I agree completely.
October 10, 2021
its all nonsense, isn’t it! About as trustworthy as that bloke with his doubtful spreadsheet skills and data.
October 10, 2021
@Mike Wilson I always thought the best way to handle lenders when it comes to housing is to use the US model. If you get into financial difficulty and are mortgaged up to the hilt – ‘you just hand your key over to the lender’. if the property value doesn’t cover the debt that is their problem In the UK there is a tendency to overvalue over lend, as it is the mortgage payer that inherits 100% of the debt even if the lender reposes the property. The lender sells a reposed property cheap the borrower still has to make up the difference.
October 10, 2021
If you get into financial difficulty and only owe 1% of the value of your property, then the lender gets the lot, equity and all, in the US Foreclosure system.
That is why sub-prime mortgages were so attractive to the greedy in a rising market – precisely because they were likely to default.
The bubble burst, however, and the lenders were left with liabilities not gains, and so the dodgy ratings agencies covered up the risks enabling the export of this mountain of US negative equity around the world, notably to the UK.
You can perhaps remember the results of this.
Foreclosure is not really practical in the UK because of the Human Right to the Peaceful Enjoyment Of Possessions for one thing, and jolly good too.
The lender here can only claim costs and arrears.
October 10, 2021
Basically the loans were made on hundreds of thousands of unsecure and inadequate incomes.
And that caught up with the banks bigtime, so a rush to close on the unfortunate loanees, that then lead to a frantic sell-off at poor values.
October 11, 2021
They were, but the scope to grab equity explains *why* that was done.
October 11, 2021
Are you claiming that if I had a 20 million Malibu beach front property in America with a 2 million mortgage and I defaulted you as lender could sell my property and take all the value beyond your costs arrears and interest?
Sounds unlikely to me.
And this with your favoured written Constitution.
October 12, 2021
My dictionary says:
“Foreclosure: the process by which mortgaged property enters into the possession of the mortgagee without right of redemption by the mortgagor, usually for reason of delinquency in mortgage payments.”
So in answer to your question, without more, then yes.
The US has no Human Rights Act.
October 12, 2021
Yes but…give examples of what you claim might happen.
My experience is that on threat if foreclosure with total loss owners remortgage with other lenders.
I note you refused to answer my scenarios
PS
I never said the USA had a human rights act.
Why bring that up?
October 10, 2021
I read somewhere that banks can loan the same money 31 times according to current accounting rules
When folk want their money back you can see why the banks panic. Northern Rock!!!!!
October 10, 2021
Mike, working class men with a wife bringing up the children full time or working part-time [16-20 hours], often had to make up hours in overtime, 60 hour week were often necessary to keep a roof over their heads.
October 10, 2021
Central banks the world over are buying gold by the tonne this year. The BoE is buying Gilts to finance the vast sums Sunak has printed since he bacame Chancellor. Words fail me…..
October 10, 2021
Sunak spent much of his conference speech railing against the policies of tax, borrow and piss down the drain that he has been been following. He say he want higher productivity but his governmentâs policies (of expensive energy, over regulation, slow and restrictive planning and vast over taxation) are the main cause of low productivity. These policies will not work. Election in May 2024?
October 10, 2021
Election in May 2024. Too far away Ll.
October 10, 2021
‘Central banks the world over are buying gold by the tonne this year.’ This hasn’t affected its price much except going down – why is that?
October 10, 2021
And that explains why the price of gold is *down* on the year? In fact down since its peak in 2012.
October 11, 2021
Manipulation in the synthetic market-derivatives of gold are a huge multiple of the physical stuff.
October 10, 2021
When frankly useless Ministers cannot even get their staff to work, zero chance of anything much happening except more outpourings of Borisâs BS.
October 10, 2021
Nig l, +1, Well reduced to essentials in one short pithy sentence.
October 10, 2021
Good morning,
That is not quite correct, Sir John. There may have been a shortage of wind but wind turbines do not create the natural gas our gas boilers rely on. The shortage is due to the fact that, in 2017, the hopeless Theresa May MP allowed the closure of one of the UK’s largest gas storage facilities for housing. Had this not been allowed to happen we may have had ample reserves to cover the shortfall and subsequent spike in world prices.
John Maynard Keynes stated that :
Keynes was a great believer in the State and its power to influence markets. Naturally I have never been a fan of the man. People who think they know what is better for you rarely admit to their mistakes, or are likely to have to suffer them. Consequently they continue blindly unaware of the mess they are creating. Sound familiar ?
Mrs.T believed, much like the German Central Bank of old (Deutsche Bundesbank), in sound money. If you maintain the value of your currency it will pay you back in hard times when those fleeing the above come calling, making things we import much cheaper – Like gas and oil.
Reply We needed to import extra gas to burn in power stations!
October 10, 2021
Reply to reply.
Why, is there not enough storage capacity for both the power stations AND the gas boilers we use ?
October 10, 2021
BURN COAL
October 10, 2021
You really, really do not want to burn coal. Not without a radical improvement in exhaust cleaning systems.
October 10, 2021
I really really do want to burn coal, I also want the UK to lead the world in filter technology and carbon capture invention…..devices we could sell to germany & china
October 11, 2021
GC, Could you please provide a list of all the commercial carbon capture plants presently running in the UK. It would also be good to have a list of all the grants/contracts/incentives/support money given to UK companies since the CCS idea was developed in the 2000s.
I could only find the Tata Chemicals Europe CCS plant supposed to become operational some time in 2021 in Northwich, Cheshire.
Thank you in advance for any additional information.
You could also have a look at co2re.co , the site of the Global CCS Institute with a lot of interesting information on actual realisations (Alabama Power Station by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries; the Exxon Mobilâs Shute Creek in Wyoming; the Occidental Petroleum Corp.âs Century site in West Texas; or the Boundary Dam Power Station in Saskatchewan) and on running and future projects (some in Germany, others in China).
Isnât it a shame that all these realisations and projects have not waited for the future âdevicesâ being produced by the UK?
PS: Chancellor Merkel had restarted discussions on CCS(torage) and CCU(se) in mid-2019. Interestingly the new German Government if it includes both the Gruenen and the FDP might be even keener on those. Whether theyâll be ready to adopt British âdevicesâ is another story.
October 10, 2021
National Grid has been demolishing gasometers for some 15 years now, as a great opportunity for developers!
It was decided that the underground pipe network is capable of storing gas under pressure and could satisfy peak demand immediately WITHOUT THE NEED FOR BULK STORAGE!
Does that sound like âjust in timeâ?
October 10, 2021
sounds like ”on a wing and a prayer”
October 10, 2021
ha ha! Just what you bank on with the UK energy policy.
October 10, 2021
Storing gas under pressure *is* bulk storage.
October 10, 2021
It may well be but the fact remains that we do not have enough gas and the old storage facilities could have been used had they not been demolished.
The U.K. has 4bcm of storage capacity which = about 1/4 of demand on a cold day. Remember the âBeast from the Eastâ?
In 2013 the Rough storage was closed, the government believing us to have plenty of alternative options, like shale gas. (The Rough was probably being earmarked for hydrogen storage). There were warnings that this would leave us exposed to the volatility of the global market and Charles Hendry said that more storage facilities should be built.
Well nobody listened as usual and look at us now!
Just trusting to luck in the midst of an apparent world wide shortage.
October 11, 2021
Yes, it may well satisfy “peak” demand of a few hours or a day or so, but does not smooth out price spikes lasting for weeks or for longer.
October 10, 2021
“As a very import dependent economy the UK will import a lot of inflation from the others unless sterling strengthens more.”
Well of course there is, within reason, a solution to those problems, import far less, make far more here in the UK, and be less exposed to fluctuations of the FX markets, often cause by speculators playing one currency off against others, as happened in 1992 on Black Wednesday.
“What did they expect given the volume of dollars the Fed decided to tip into the system?”
Perhaps they didn’t expect energy and shipping prices to sky-rocket, nor a needlessly deep, long, pandemic in the US due to political stubbornness on the right, or such a dislocated world supply chain (reported last week; 86 container shops waiting to access Los Angeles port).
“Why do we not put in more gas storage while we are about it”
Well yes, but would that not need the govt to be the UK’s buyer/supplier/owner of last resort? It is clear the private energy companies either have the means to invest in such storage but no desire, or, they can’t afford to invest such large sums even though they may desire such storage.
Just a pity the UK was so short sighted, for totally political reasons, when in the 1980s a start was made to wind-down our coal industry, coal being such a useful energy reserve, given the many products that can be made from it, directly or indirectly. Our host talks of more gas storage, we currently have at least 500 years of “coal gas” reserves, if only we could access it, not the perfect fuel but better than nothing!
“The main Central Banks have talked themselves into a corner.”
The above is why politicos & govts so like the idea of ‘independent’ central banks, it gives them someone else to blame besides themselves, even more so when the seed of the problem was planed many years before, when the central bank was not notionally independent, when govts made many such decisions… Some people need to stop complaining, making excuses, and start taking ownership of their past policies.
Chickens are starting to come home to roost, as they always would…
Reply Absurd attempts to blame Thatcher and Republicans. CV 19 has been worst in California and New York, Democrat areas, and the US has overtaken UK deaths per mill under Biden, not Trump. All left wing parties want to close down all coal.
October 10, 2021
To reply – âAll left wing parties want to close down coalâ indeed the Conservatives being one of these left wing parties. The advantage of coal is it is cheap and very easy and cheap to store too.
October 10, 2021
@LL; Not between 1979-1994, the only left wing party who wanted to close down coal was the Ecologist/green party, Labour wanted to keep coal, they needed the NUM money!
October 10, 2021
@JR reply; Well of course you are going to defend your old boss, defend the policies you helped formulate, I didn’t expect anything less. When things go wrong why do govts bother to announce independent enquiries, surely better to simply allow those directly involved in the decisions made in the run up to the failings, how ever long ago, to inspect themselves -after all surely they are the best judge of their own decisions?!…
As for CV19, yes with better reporting some previously low infection states saw a jump in both their rates of infection and deaths from CV19, as Trump said himself, if you go looking of course you will find. Perhaps it was just a case that both California and New York went looking much earlier than some other state, indeed California and New York have form for this, after all they were the two states that first reported the true extent of AIDS back in the 1980s. California in the early 1970s also being the State that first draw attention to the problem of vehicular exhaust gas pollution, legislating via state laws.
October 10, 2021
CV19 has not been “worst in California and New York”. New York has the 5th worst death rate per capita and California the 34th worst of the 50 states.
At 176 deaths per 100,000, California has fared better than the USA as whole (212 deaths per 100,000), whereas Republican governed large states such as Texas (229 deaths per 100,000) and Florida (259 deaths per 100,000) have fared worse.
It’s also remembering that much of the USA’s Covid policy is set at the state or county level, so to put the blame for decisions taken by state governors or local politicianns onto the White House is somewhat disengenuous.
Reply Democrat New Jersey has had a high death rate. The New York death rate has been higher than Texas or Florida.
October 10, 2021
Classic politicians deflection. Where in your analysis of responsibility have you considered the fact that New York, New Jersey and California are locations in the USA which have some of the strongest travel connections with China (i.e. direct flights) so would likely be the places impacted earliest?
It’s also worth nothing that, of the 10 US states with the highest Covid death rates, 6 have Republican governors.
October 10, 2021
There are demographic factors which make it hard to put any weight on these politically-inspired comparisons. E.g. California is among the ten US states wth the lowest average age, Florida among the ten with the highest. Suppose – because of the notorious unreliability of the ‘Covid deaths’ and ‘Covid infections’ figures – you just look at all-cause mortality, there always were big between-state differences anyway. In 2019 all-cause deaths in Texas per 100k were far higher than in California or New York, for example.
What we know for sure is that US excess all-cause mortality is now rising fast. At around 20% higher than the expected figure based on the 5-year trend, it is back to the level of late summer last year. That ought to be giving cause for concern, regardless of the politics.
October 10, 2021
+1.
Also interesting is that going to France (30k new cases a day) one has to have a day 2 PCR test (~ÂŁ45-ÂŁ50) when one is more likely to get Covid in Wokingham (90 new cases on 1/10/2021, 350 per 100,000 for Berkshire) than from almost anywhere in France (43.15 per 100,000 inhabitants in Occitanie).
But the new âentrepreneursâ in the testing business have to be cherished, they might contribute to the CUPâs coffers.
October 10, 2021
Gee, going to France (<6,000 new cases a day) from the UK (30,000 new cases a day) one can enter France with only the proof of a double vaccination. To return to âPlague Islandâ one has to have âŚ
I have wondered for a while why this site is so crap âŚ
October 10, 2021
Hefner, I can’t believe you still have to have it pointed out to you that Covid ‘cases’ (i.e. positive lab results) are a meaningless figure unless accompanied by the overall number of tests administered. According to official statistics, the positivity rate in both countries is below 5%, an indicator for the W.H.O. that the epidemic is under control in a country. Then there’s the fact that these Covid tests are NOT proof of live infection, and have never been claimed to be, by any serious scientist. I’m afraid your ‘Plague Island’ jibe is just pointless.
October 10, 2021
Philip P., today monevator gives 4558k tests for the UK, 2231k for France cumulated since the start of testing in both countries. A factor of two difference: even taking into account this, the cumulated infection is still 2.5 bigger in the UK than in France.
Ah, but ⌠what should be taken into account is not the cumulative number of tests but one taken over a recent period, over say the last few days. According to gov.uk there had been about 900k tests/day these first nine days of October, and 700 to 730k tests/day in the equivalent period in France (cascoronavirus.fr). Which might lead to a potential bias of up to 29% in the number of cases per 100,000 and certainly not enough to discard the difference seen between the UK and France, whether it is a factor of 2.5 or 5.
The epidemic might be under control in both countries ⌠but I canât believe you are still unaware of such basic statistical things.
October 10, 2021
To make interstate comparisons you need to adjust for the age profile of the population as a minimum. Florida is known as God’s Waiting Room, and has a much higher proportion of elderly (65+) than almost any other state at 20.5% (Maine is higher at 20.6%). In California, it’s just 14.3%. So if we simply assume that deaths are in the over 65s (not far from the truth) the rate in Florida becomes 1263 per 100,000 over 65, while California is at 1230 per 100,000 over 65. Not much different.
October 10, 2021
@Peter Parsons; Yes the 50 US States do have a lot of autonomy but they are also subject to federal laws to, then of course leadership leads, had Mr Trump worn a mask, had he mandated the wearing of masks in federal building, far more individual states would likely have mandated their own health protection requirements. When leadership fails it is correct to blame the leadership on watch at the time.
October 10, 2021
Masks in the US are a political statement. They’re no more protection against a virus than they are anywhere else. There was a mask mandate in North Dakota, not in South Dakota. Covid outcomes were very similar in those two states – fact.
October 11, 2021
@Hat man; I thank you for your own highly political statement….
That FACTS are though, medical science has long proven masks help stop the spread of viruses, bacteria etc. After all a handkerchief is a type of mask, commonly used to catch nasal mucus, if masks do not stop the spread of airborne infection why don’t we all just do what was common before 1919, short out snot our snot onto the ground/floor?
Of course cases will be lower if, for political reasons perhaps, no one is bothering to look, far easier to just put the cause of death down to the known pre-existing condition, not the heart failure or whatever brought on by Cv19, as the cause of death.
October 10, 2021
Politicians are the problem we face today. They are working against the interests of the people they purport to represent.
October 10, 2021
+1 Indeed
October 10, 2021
+1 Agreed
October 10, 2021
Governments the world over have been doing that. Except Switzerland that is. Can you think why ??
October 10, 2021
+ another 1.
October 10, 2021
DOM, you rightly conclude, ‘politics is not the answer to the problems we face today’.
In 1867, Bishop J C Ryle published a book entitled âComing Events and Present Dutiesâ. He described his own day as follows: “Everything around us seems unscrewed, loosened,
and out of joint! The fountains of the great deep appear to be breaking up. Ancient institutions are tottering, and ready to fall. Social and ecclesiastical systems are failing, and crumbling away. Church and State seem alike convulsed to their very foundations – and what the end of this convulsion may be, no man can tell.” The trends then apparent
caused him to doubt there was any future for âOld Englandâ. He concludes: “Finally, I believe that it is for the safety, happiness, and comfort of all true Christians, to expect as little as possible from Churches or Governments under the present dispensation – to hold themselves ready for tremendous convulsions and changes of all things established – and to expect their good things only from Christ’s second advent.” Ryle was one of a crop of sound churchmen of that era, and his I believe his wise words are ever more true now.
October 10, 2021
Norman
Wise words from the Bishop ⌠I hadnât realised this malaise went back so far, to the 19th century, I thought it started later, but perhaps itâs not so strange.
October 10, 2021
@Norman; Except religion is one of the earliest forms of politics, so if politics is the problem … so is religion.
October 10, 2021
I don’t think for one moment that religion was the solution that Dom had in mind.
October 10, 2021
@NLH; Well some people do worship money.
October 10, 2021
2022 looks like a year not to look forward to. All we need is for the unions to start acting up, and we’ll be back to the mid 70’s… only worse.
The chancellor tells us that he is a tax cutter, but clearly he doesn’t know what that means – his contributions to the national debt, along with his demands that we have to pay for the government’s excessive incompetence, will see him far exceed the reputation of the Wilson/Callaghan era. We probably have to go back as far as King John to find a match for the creation of such tax-inducing poverty coming our way.
Paying workers more in this situation will just exacerbate the crashing economy, and leveling up will surely mean down to so many.
Time this nonsense came to an end — I demand a new General election.
October 10, 2021
@Bryan Harris; Yours is the usual capitalist response to any problem cause by capitalism, blame the trade unions! With unsocial-media there will be no need for the trade unions to go unionising like they did in the mid ’70s, should parents start being unable to heat and/or feed their children. What will be your solution then, to keep your favoured status quo, a ‘Great [firewall of] Britain’…
Be careful of what you wish for, many others also share your wish for a fresh General Election, but are you 100% share they share your views as to the real cause of the current problems?
October 10, 2021
@Jerry
Just the mention of the unions and you are off on a tangent.
You cannot be ignorant of the strife the unions caused in the lawless 70’s when they effectively ran the country – They were a disaster for this country, and their demise is long overdue.
My main point was not against capitalism – It was against a party too willing to show how inclusive they are by pushing labour out of the way and shifting left.
October 10, 2021
@Bryan Harris; “You cannot be ignorant of the strife the unions caused in the lawless 70âs”
Stop being so arrogant, it takes two to tango, always.
October 11, 2021
There is nothing arrogant about the truth
The only 2 that were dancing at the time were the pathetic labour government and the unions – the rest of us were just trying to survive it all.
October 11, 2021
@Bryan Harris; There is arrogance, in excavator bucket loads, when the person telling the ‘truth’ chooses to suffer from selective memory lost whilst telling the story and thus miss out 50% of the whole truth, doing so for purely partisan advantage.
As for your second sentence, how’s the weather on Mars today?! So there was a Labour govt between June 1970 and Feb ’74, it was Harold Wilson who introduced the “Three Day Week”…
October 10, 2021
@ jerry – but Bryan Harris is not blaming the trade unions, rather confines himself to noting union militancy is the one ingredient at present missing that would otherwise make today parallel the 1970’s.
October 10, 2021
+1 I noticed that too.
Alas public sector unions HAVE been causing problems already. Using Covid measures like a general strike with secondary picketing (ie parents unable to work when teachers are off.)
October 10, 2021
@formula57; It is a very broad brush and wrong to accuse the entire trade union movement of militancy, yes there were the exceptions, such as the NUM who took advantage of the oil crisis at the end of ’73 and again in ’79. Why is it wrong for trade unions to try and protect their members standard of living. or working conditions, doesn’t the CBI try to protect their members interests, of course there is the unacceptable face of trade unionism, but then there is also the unacceptable face of capitalism too. Far fewer strikes have traditionally occurred, and when they do tend to be far shorter, in West Germany because employers and unions realised that if the country was going to build their way out of the wreckage of WW2 they needed to work as a team, almost as equals, not as foes, Bosses vs. Workers.
“militancy is the one ingredient at present missing that would otherwise make today parallel the 1970âs.”
The 1978-9 Winter of Discontent was born out of some real household hardships due to rates of pay compared to inflation (yes I know all the arguments and theories), I seem to recall many strikes were unofficial, some even against a unions direct instructions to members NOT to strike. Do not assume, just because trade union membership and militancy is less, there is no militancy on Civvy Street – How many taking part in those ER or IB protests are members of a trade union…
October 10, 2021
No, the key missing ingredient is a grounded, war-awakened electorate, who voted 68:32 to be part of a decent, civilised Europe, which would never repeat the horrors through which they had lived – my late parents being among them.
What a crying shame, that their very own young have all too often so dismally and shamefully betrayed their vision and their wisdom.
October 10, 2021
‘a grounded, war-awakened electorate, who voted 68:32 to be part of a decent, civilised Europe’.
How wrong we were.
October 11, 2021
@NLH; Not sure were you get the idea there has ever been a majority given at the ballot box to join the EEC, never mind EU.
October 11, 2021
“To be” includes “to remain” just as much as it does “to become” for my purposes, Jerry.
October 10, 2021
It is a question of perspective. For those earning a good wage, with their own home, a car (or more) life has become more taxing. For those at the other end, and especially those who do not, or cannot contribute, it has gotten a lot better. Trouble is, when you do this as part of your so called, ‘Levelling Up’, what you end up with is more people who just say, “Why the hell bother ?!?!?!” And that is the slippery path to ruin. Just ask the people of the former Soviet Union and its Eastern European Satellites.
October 10, 2021
@Mark B
Exactly – the more this government adopts central planning and imitates the efforts of the old USSR, the more we see how dangerous it is for government to control every aspect of our lives.
October 11, 2021
@Bryan Harris; You do not appear to have a very high regard for Winston Churchill or his govts then, as both wartime PM and peace time PM from 1951, he wasn’t shy to use centralised planning not only to get the the war won but then as peace time PM get the UK rebuilt, get the exports flowing.
October 10, 2021
Bryan
What would an election solve, they are all as bad or worse than each other, perhaps all the the Parties need new leaders and policies.
Sadly it is not just the UK that is suffering from this problem, the World is getting more and more full of virtue signalling politicians, determined to run their Countries in the most complicated way possible.
October 10, 2021
+1
October 10, 2021
@Alan — What else have we got?
If we riot they will trample all over us.
Most MPs ignore please for sanity.
At the very least we need to reduce Boris’s majority by getting more independents in as well as every last possible real right of centre party.
October 10, 2021
Bryan Harris – Yes, agreed, and this has to begin at local level. There are seven months till the council elections. Steps must be taken now. Losing elections is the only language these people will understand.
October 10, 2021
@ Bryan Harris; “What else have we got?”
Given that we have just had 3 General Elections over four years but only in 2017 did the country come close to changing the status quo, I’m not sure making that five elections in six years will solve anything, if it did I suspect you would just bleat even more.
October 11, 2021
Irrelevant as always..
October 10, 2021
A J, +1
October 10, 2021
What would be the result of your general election – more Conservative socialism, or the nightmare of Labour extreme left ?
We need a right wing party and an electorate with sense, neither of which are in prospect.
Meanwhile the rubber boat people stream in for a free life, courtesy of the taxpayer.
Just raise interest rates, now.
October 10, 2021
An election right now would just lead to another ‘Conservative’ government, albeit with a smaller majority. What is needed is a new prime minister.
October 10, 2021
Concur
October 10, 2021
And in other news the energy cap will not be lifted so more firms to go bankrupt then?
King Canute springs to mind
October 10, 2021
How many people need to die of cold, unable to afford heating? How many need to die of starvation because they cannot afford the price of food? How many businesses, farm and industrial, need to go bust? These are the questions Conservative MPs must answer when they contemplate the consequences of the pseudo-science that claims not only to predict global temperatures by the end of the century but also to control it! At some point there will be a tipping point when the claims of the pseudo-science are recognised as fraudulent and are abandoned. But who will be first – Conservative MPs or the electorate? Whose instinct for survival will kick in first?
October 10, 2021
“How many people need to die of cold, unable to afford heating?”
It would appear enough to reduce the UK population to 500,000, according to the Gates Foundation and the WEF.
That is why open fires and burners must be banned.
October 10, 2021
Indeed. It shocks me that we trashed the economy to save lives from CV-19 only to kill the survivors by hypothermia.
Idiotic.
October 10, 2021
I have long since given up. My wife has been robbed of her pension. Over ÂŁ50000. Boris said he would look into it. He didnât. Donât lecture me on equality, she was of an era where the mother brought up the family and not earning company pensions, while their husbands like me served in war zones. After the loss of her pension she is now threatened with prescription charges. A double whammy. What makes me livid is that the rest of the U.K. get prescriptions free. Not just the over 60âs, all of them. I often hear the ministers talk of fairness before stabbing a section of society in the back. How can this possibly be described as fair. Failing to plan for this fanatical and energy debacle is the real issue. No lectures either on money. There is always money to buy Pizza for illegal migrants, money for hotels that I couldnât possibly afford. Money to send an aircraft carrier to the South China Sea., money for the over bloated and ever expanding House of Lords, money for crack pot ideas with foreign aid. Money for the overpaid lawyers milking the legal aid system. I have no doubt there will be money further down the line to compensate the eco warriors, yes some lawyer will be working on it now. However the country Always needs to balance the books when it comes to looking after Mr & Mrs ordinary. (If I am still allowed to say Mr & Mrs). I for one will never vote again. After years of doing so it has proven to be worthless no matter who is in power. Making policy to suit idiotic pressure groups and not for those who voted for you will end in tears. ÂŁ80,000 a year not enough. Thatâs a laugh. No doubt there will be money to increase that as well.
October 10, 2021
I am one of those who got caught in this trap, despite leaving school in 1969 and having over 35 years NI contributions.
But it gets worse, I work 5 hours a week (to supplement my income) and have a small company pension which is taxed the full 20%. With Sunak’s gerrymandering, not only do I now pay more tax, but previously I got an automatic rebate because too much tax had been paid, but not this year…
October 10, 2021
What a terrible state of affairs, I am so sad for you and many hundreds of thousands of decent citizens who believed their working lives and doing things correctly and responsibly should end up with this disillusion and possible suffering. The UK was held up as being the epitome of fairness and justice – what a joke that has become.
October 10, 2021
Supply side economics has been applied to the labour market, forcing down wages (price of labour) but here the sinister left that now controls both main parties saw an opportunity to weaponise the political importation of labour of certain identities as a weapon of political, social and cultural war. The consequences of this politics is now daily immersion to condition and indoctrinate
I myself have become apolitical in nature, choosing to insulate myself from the political class’s attempts to stoke the narrative of victimhood and demonisation. The price of this politics is again inflationary as the price of our sanity and sanctity rockets to levels never seen before in British politics
I know I and millions of innocent British citizens are under a sustained legal, cultural and human assault from No.10 and by those who encouraged such victim politics. I will not portrayed as a threat by politicians like Johnson, Starmer, Patel and all the other feminist and race hating grifters who seek to harm our nation by enveloping us all in a web of total restrictions
What am I to blame for? I have been made to feel personally responsible and in a social sense guilty for the crimes of individuals that I have never met nor know nothing about it.
The price of this anti-human politics is an ever inflating contempt for those who seek to harm us all. Mr Redwood knows precisely what is happening here.
We await the next instalment in this ever barbaric political attack from those who abuse for political ends racial and gender identity
Enough from tedious old me, I have dogs to walk and my grandchildren to protect from the gruesome politics of our age
October 10, 2021
+1
Breaking butterflies on wheels.
October 10, 2021
A minor point.
LNG tankers do not use diesel – generally they are steam powered using boil off methane and/or oil.
But of course they are still producing the dread CO2 either way.
To my mind the “dash for gas” of the then newly privitised generating companies was always going to end in this mess.
October 10, 2021
The perfect storm. A government created stagflationary apocalypse, a health disaster from untested vaccines already causing untold number of deaths and serious injury, a lunatic green agenda, a collapse of businesses like we’ve never seen before and leftist totalitarian ideas destroying all the norms of society.
At this point 1984 looks like a good option.
October 10, 2021
1984 didn’t have face coverings !
Indeed. Suspicions are aroused because a Leftist putsch – from all angles – took place during lockdown. The Government looks hijacked.
October 10, 2021
Some months ago I expressed my concerns here about what ruinous action Johnson would seek to impose on us before the COP shindig . The undertakings he has already made for his extreme climate change religion are bad enough, but now I gather he is going to put forward proposals to put a levy on gas to pay for his green nuttery. Great , bloody great, if gas price rises aren’t currently damaging enough to household finances, and I am very suspicious this isn’t a situation that has been created to make renewable energy price competitive , Johnson is going to make it a whole lot worse with an enforced levy to his climate change god.
Universal Declaration of Human Rights article 18 states that we are supposed to have freedom of religion. Is it right that Johnson should seek to co-opt us into his?
October 10, 2021
IM – It is the Klaus Schwab Great Reset as promoted by globalist Boris and the UK Establishment. I have said many times before the real conspiracy theorists believe their government cares about them, the media would never mislead or lie to them and the pharmaceutical industry that makes billions from sickness wants to cure you.
October 10, 2021
He got steered down this ruinous path, and probably had his Covid brain on when Carrie pounced. I doubt he feels able to come to terms with such a calamity and put things into reverse. If his MPs won’t act then what sort of a country and economy will the next government inherit? Not nice to dwell on.
October 10, 2021
“As a very import dependent economy the UK will import a lot of inflation from the others unless sterling strengthens more.”
But if sterling strengthens, that will hit exporters (like us), so we’re hit with rising manufacturing costs (with the government putting its boot in as well) but not have the ability to raise prices. A strong sterling might look good when it comes to buying energy, but it also looks good to buying anything from abroad. We’ll have more investment switching out of the UK and going elsewhere in the world.
The real solutions are long term, but the government could help short term by suspending its vanity projects like HS2, and cancelling the planned tax increases.
October 10, 2021
The word we need is Brexflation. Inflation caused mostly by Tory pensioner Brexit.
Clearly the sharply rising prices of goods and services due largely to your Brexit is a major concern. But it is mitigated somewhat by the fact that, also thanks to your Brexit, we can no longer get most goods and services anyway.
Reply Germany has higher inflation than us. The EU must have caused that on your logic.
October 10, 2021
You really are a prize Wally. In the circles in which I move, most people are old and Tory voters. Most of them are middle class who love travelling to Europe. Most of them voted Remain.
The highest Brexit voting was in Labour areas. Calling it a Tory pensioner Brexit is nonsense and wonât change the facts – it was a working class Brexit.
October 10, 2021
Correct – the City of London wealthy saw their comfortable incomes/lifestyle under threat – and stayed in the EU safe orbit. Those who looked further into our future saw things differently. Those in London who were not wealthy wanted to stay with the option of moving where the best lifestyle was available, the EU was more attractive.
October 11, 2021
Mike, you are wrong, sorry.
Listen to Prof Danny Dorling’s excellent breakdown of the Leave vote.
Of particular interest is the fact that the young did indeed stay at home. Although over 60% claimed to have voted in surveys, in fact they did not, when the unique ballot slips were tallied.
October 10, 2021
Germany is a sovereign country. It makes its own economic decisions. If inflation were down to the EU how do you explain that EU member state Estonia has an inflation rate of 6.6% whilst EU member state Malta has inflation of just 0.7%?
Also Germanyâs figures are for September. The UKâs latest figures are for August. Letâs see what happens in the coming months – when your Brexit really starts to cause damage.
October 10, 2021
“Germany is a sovereign country. It makes its own economic decisions.”
No country without its own currency is sovereign.
October 11, 2021
You could rather more correctly claim that no country with US bases on its soil is sovereign.
October 10, 2021
Er… no… It definitely was because we shut down the economy for nearly two years.
October 10, 2021
I think the Central banks and the politicians (flip sides of the same coin?) are going to find it just as difficult as their predecessors in the 1970s did to return the inflationary genie to the bottle, now that they have released it. All the sloppy thinking that governed things then is present today in the assertion by the bankers and ‘Experts’ that the present inflation will be a ‘Brief uptick’. This suits the politicians as it saves them from having to face up to unpleasant reality, and the inevitable result will be an eventual over-correction with very harmful consequences for the economy.
October 10, 2021
Indeed I have felt for better part of a year that inflation was heading in our direction in a big way. Having central banks print humongous amounts of money for Governments to spend was always going to result in this. You don’t have to be some wunderkind of an economist to figure that out. While there needed to be a response to Covid , the fiscal incontinence that has come with the spending is terrifying , billions were just frittered away . Now getting to the other side of Covid, when the Government’s task should be to get the nuts and bolts of the economy working again as well as getting control of finances, we have them injecting more instability into our economy with their Climate Change. It is almost as if their agenda s to create instability.
We have a political leadership who don’t have the memory of the pernicious rot that inflation can inflict on a country, and I doubt very much that they have the backbone to do what is necessary to squeeze inflation out of the system.
October 10, 2021
I’m no economist but all the signs are that inflation is going to be rampant.
Energy costs, the USA printing trillions of dollars, the blue touchpaper has been lit. Banks always wait until the obvious signals have been around for a while, when it’s too late.
October 10, 2021
Hugely increasing population combined with hugely increasing cheap money supply further combined with no investment in skills or work ethic.
What could possibly go wrong?
October 10, 2021
+1
October 10, 2021
Inflation is caused by Fiscal policies not Monetary policies. To quote Warren, “if quantitative easing [QE] was inflationary, Japan would be hyperinflating by now, with the US not far behind. Nor is there any sign that the ECBâs buying of euro govt bonds has resulted in any kind of monetary inflation, as nothing but deflationary pressures continue to mount in that ongoing debt implosion. The reason there is no inflation from the ECB bond buying is because all it does is shift investor holdings from national govt debt to ECB balances, which changes nothing in the real economy.”
Likewise, the BoE QE just shifts investor holding (Gilts etc) from the government’s securities balances at the BoE to the government’s reserves balances at the BoE. There is no net change in the amount of currency in the economy; nobody printed anymore money. (Other than the reduced interest pay-out from the cancelled Gilts.)
I still reckon that the biggest drag by far on the EU economy is the Euro currency system. The Euro has no currency issuing Treasury. Euro currency member states don’t issue their own Euro currency, Their Treasuries issue their own Gilts that have to be monetised by the ECB, the only Euro currency issuer. It would be difficult to design a fiat currency system that was more arse backwards than the Euro system.
October 10, 2021
Would you prefer an “arse forwards” system then, Acorn?
October 10, 2021
“I still reckon that the biggest drag by far on the EU economy is the Euro currency system.”
You are correct, and that is because the highest priority of the ECB is neither growth nor employment, but keeping the euro together.
The euro was supposed to promote growth and stability, and now growth and stability are being sacrificed to preserve the euro.
October 10, 2021
I read yesterday that some of the Afghans we took out before the Taliban arrived are saying âsend me homeâ as they are fed up with their hotel existence.
Whilst I make no comment on the rights or wrongs of facilitating their leaving, where did the government think the necessary housing was going to magically appear from. And, if they find housing for them, what about the people here who have been waiting for housing for decades.
Government really does seem to be congenitally useless.
October 10, 2021
Khan is buying ex council houses to house Afghans …
//Mayor of London Sadiq Khan has announced a deal with Islington Council to use Right to Buy-back funds to secure homes for Afghan refugees.// …Some 80 homes.
But don’t worry he hasn’t forgotten about the British homeless on London’s streets, he’s refurbished a couple of old busses for them.
October 10, 2021
Housing Afghans in London is beyond dumb. It’s a hugely expensive city. These ‘interpreters’ should be accommodated for a maximum of two months and then told to secure their own housing. They’ll all head north!
October 10, 2021
Iain – – over a 1000 more in 2 days – – all will be in nice warm hotels by now – – free room, heat, bed, water NHS, etc etc – – NOTHING being done to stop them.
October 10, 2021
…and they’re not even refugees
October 10, 2021
so much more than hundreds of thousands of citizens. What must they be thinking – I know, its unprintable.
October 10, 2021
Inflation is inevitable, I would go as far as to suggest it is part of ‘The Great Reset’ plan.
Covid allowed Governments to get away with curtailment of peoples liberties on a grand scale.
COP26 in no way sets out to address any climate problems, in reality it is permitting our Government to get into a bidding war. ‘I’m better than you’ on the World Stage while punishing the people of the UK. There is nothing in Boris’s aggression to the UK that will address the ‘Climate Situation’. He has in fact set in motion an absolute increase of World green house gases, he has exported UK jobs only to make sure the UK imports more from the nastiest polluting countries of the World. he has ensured that UK relies on its energy to keep warm and the lights on by importing it from some of the nastiest regimes this planet has seen.
Authorities deny all the conspiracy theories, then under Biden’s dictate they agree to World harmonization on a tax. What nonsense, Biden dictates minimum of 15% while permitting his own domain to charge just 8.7%.
We should never loose sight of the fact that they greater majority of the World is not even playing lip service to these dogmatic – punish the people, scenarios. Our Government is creating a serious mountain of problems were the people have to pay, pay hard, for no benefit either now or in the future – they (The Government) just want to prove the have the power to manipulate and control
The real ‘Elephant in the Room’, inflation when coupled with quotative easing is the escape clause Government uses to hide its own inabilities. The People get punished pay the bill and because it is convoluted it gets swept under the mat
October 10, 2021
“I am persuaded by the weight of evidence to conclude that what we are seeing is being deliberately engineered.”
So am I Dom. The actions of the past couple of years is the Globalists’ response to the Brexit Referendum (and the increasingly likely implosion of the EU it will trigger) and Trump’s election. They decided to fast-track to the post-democratic, One World Government by an Elite are above democratic control.
The chaos and fear is being deliberately engineered so that people will demand international quangos are strengthened to address the chaos.
October 10, 2021
Donna, you are on the the right track, it is all part of the globalist plan and it starts at the very top. Remember we are all subjects!!!!! I think the population are slowly waking up wake up but Nothing can stop what is coming, Nothing.
October 11, 2021
No, people in many countries with modern constitutions are citizens, and collectively sovereign.
If by “we” you mean just the UK, then yes.
October 10, 2021
They were always going to inflate away the debt they’ve created.
And once again, it’s the little people, particularly those on fixed incomes who will suffer.
It’s interesting that Dan Hannan in the Sunday Telegraph has called for Classic Liberal Conservatives to put up with Johnson’s left-wing policies and Green Lunacy and stick with the Party. I interpret that to mean there is a great deal of unrest within the small number of genuine Conservatives left in the Parliamentary Party, as well as in the Membership, which is starting to make itself felt.
And that’s before we get the chaos Johnson and his bunch of 2nd rate Cabinet Members unleash on the country this winter.
October 10, 2021
I do not see it as desperately complex a problem. The real problem is that government have ignored the signs in their desperate drive to green. The key is the cost of energy and high energy prices infect just about the price of everything else. This government was not elected on a high energy cost green manifesto, they were elected because Corbyn’s Labour had totally lost the plot. Green energy in itself is expensive and a transfer of wealth from the many to the few. Additionally the deliberate ignoring of all the alternatives just reinforces the position of green energy, and energy we import via interconnectors and tankers.
Government have failed to plan ahead and failed to exploit alternatives under our own control. They have been wantonly blinkered by green and all it’s vested interest groups. There is plentiful gas and oil in the North Sea, in a vast untapped field west of Shetland, and gas in the shale layers of the North West of England. In the latter case the earth tremors, grasped like a Mae West by the nimbies, have been a feature of the Lake District and NW England before fracking was thought of. I have personal experience of this in Rossthwaite in the 60’s. Additionally we could be mining all the coal we may need for steel production, importing it is insane.
Expensive fuel equals expensive food and everything else the public chooses to buy. It may be manageable for those whose wages increase but consider all the pensioners and anyone else on a fixed income. They are all voters who this government are free gifting reasons not to vote for them to be added to the Insulate Anarchy on our roads, open door immigration, and the NI Protocol. Pray tell me what I have left out of Boris’s ride to hell in a hand cart.
October 10, 2021
The problem you face is to many psychopathy at the top of companies and in government as well as organization, most are very well educated and don’t like people, they sitting on all your borrow money to which you are picking up the bill for, it won’t be long before they pull the plug and down you go, they get the bail-out while get nothing but high taxes and bigger bills to pay, I am still ontrack for 2023/24 which will the start of a deflation spiral for year’s to come. I don’t care, I will get the job done and wipe the slate clean.
October 10, 2021
Should today’s diary not carry the health warning “Not to be read by German taxpayers”?
Germany is of course quite right to keep the Weimar inflation in its national consciousness as inflation is the great destroyer. Central banks have a near universal track record of acting too late to counter it (not that they have very effective tools typically).
October 10, 2021
The Weimar inflation that wiped out people who kept their savings in cash and enriched those who had the sense to buy goods and real assets.
October 10, 2021
Having just arrived in Spain this morning, I would like to reassure Brits contemplating a break that the process is only complex at the UK end
Airlines, and I emphasise airlines, wish to see confirmation on the NHS App that you are double vaccinated. Are they operating their own Covid passport system. If you have been double vaccinated for Covid in the UK but are resident in Spain you are not allowed on the NHS App. Utterly crazy on the part of NHS administration and needs sorting. My advice is to get an official letter from your doctor confirming the jabs and get it rubber stamped by the surgery or the airline will think you are forging it. I would maintain that it is no business of UK airlines to be interrogating medical records, that is a matter between the traveller and the rules of the destination.
On arrival in Alicante passports were checked electronically and rubber stamped. Passengers complete a Spanish government location form 48 hours before departure from the UK. In it the vaccinations you have had are detailed. You are sent a QR code on your phone or A4 printable on your computer. This you show at a health station where it is scanned. You then collect your luggage and depart the airport. Simple , the Spanish are not interested in your NHS App only in their own QR code. I would suggest that the Spanish do not question your honesty, only the Brits do that using airlines as their tool of control.
October 10, 2021
Useful information, Agricola, but do Brits own the ‘UK airlines’? British airways is owned by the Spanish-registered consortium International Airlines Group, in which Qatar has a sizable stake. A Greek Cypriot has a controlling interest in Easyjet, and of course Ryanair is Irish. We don’t seem to own our airports outright either. The mother company owning Heathrow is Spanish, a French company has a majority stake in Gatwick, and the Manchester Airport Group which runs Stansted is part-owned by an Australian investment fund. Would managers from these foreign countries mind imposing a Covid passport on UK travellers at departure, when their countries have, or are about to introduce, Covid passports?
October 10, 2021
I would point out that UK government control the NHS App which is imposed to get on an aircraft leaving the UK,but has no relevance once you set foot on Spanish soil. The Spanish only ask you to complete their health location form in which you detail the Covid jabs you have had. Who owns what in the UK is irrelevant assuming we have a government that governs. An assumption I am loath to make.
October 10, 2021
Excellent Richard II, I absolutely agree. We are having our chain pulled by companies owned outside the UK and its time we Brits woke up to what is going on.
October 10, 2021
The Spanish QR code is accepted across the EU. EU and EEA countries worked together so it is easy for their people to travel – despite Covid. The exception is the UK.
The Brexitists refused to work with the EU because the Brexitists behave like toddlers. The Brexitists have made it pointlessly more difficult for us to travel. Not told your constituents that yet, have you Mr Redwood?
October 10, 2021
my heart bleeds for you.
October 10, 2021
There are people here who would love to make it easier for you to travel, Andy.
October 16, 2021
Andy, I think it is possible to travel all over Europe simply showing a paper version of the two vaccine certificates appearing on oneâs NHS app, and these can be easily downloaded from it.
It is true that the UK Covid pass is not (yet?) readily compatible with the EU app, but oneâs certificates can be downloaded from the NHS app onto the EU app and depending which Covid app reader is used on the continent is mostly accepted, in France and Germany at least. When not accepted, one just has to show the paper version of the certificates.
So before going to continental Europe the whole procedure requires maybe half an hour, an internet connection, a mobile phone allowing apps (the NHS one and the EU Covid pass one) and a computer/tablet for storing the certificates while they transit from the NHS app to the EU app.
It does not require to be a full geek to do such a thing.
October 10, 2021
“On arrival in Alicante ….”
Thanks for my chuckle of the day. It is less comlpicated to fly into Alicante than into Heathrow? Alicante the hub of the galaxy? Alicante the cross-roads of the World? Alicante the destination of one and all?
October 11, 2021
“I would like to reassure people trying to flee East Berlin that the process is only problematic on the Eastern Side of the Wall”
October 11, 2021
People could not flee East Berlin NLH.
They were not allowed to leave.
If they tried they could be shot.
The joy of socialism.
October 11, 2021
That was no more socialism than the Spanish Inquisition was Christianity, Peter2, but otherwise that was exactly my point.
Sadly you missed it yet again, it seems.
October 12, 2021
And you threw a few red herrings into the debate to switch the argument as usual NLH
October 16, 2021
P2, have you ever thought of becoming a politician, you show enough bad faith day in day out to have a real chance at the next elections đ
October 11, 2021
NOT they could be — they were shot!
October 10, 2021
I am not particularly concerned about the domestic effects of gas prices, but I am about our industries. It seems clear that ‘Boris’ and thus Kwasi are intending to allow what remains of our industries to collapse because of high gas prices. We could easily and quickly expand our own production but the idea that more windmills and the like should get top priority is insane and subversive.
They will impoverish us and lead us into even greater dependence on imports. Foreign governments are not so stupid and will be gearing up rapidly to sell their products; Tories and their friends like imported goods and to sell our businesses so will be happy.
And the same thing will happen in the livestock industry. Retailers here are probably already contracting with foreign suppliers to obtain pork for example which with our government’s dislike for ‘trade’ will bring about farming collapse too. It’s what Tories do. The endless praise of FTA’s will just help that along.
October 10, 2021
When every hotel room in England has a “migrant” freeloader costing us a fortune, keeping nice and warm ( NO power price worries for THEM ) – – how much of our taxes will be being handed to the owners every month??? and where will the next boatload be going???
Nothing being done to stop them – – and they get treated better than the ones who you love taxing and wasting it !!!
October 10, 2021
I would love to be able to post pictures is poor souls sleeping rough quite literally in sight of the Palace of Westminster and not far from Number 1o. But alas our kind host does not like me linking to anything which supports my arguments even from know and respected website and even those that are not, like the government ones.
/sarc
October 10, 2021
There have been places where everyone was entitled to a job and to a home.
One of them was the Soviet Union.
However, getting people to work effectively then often required an element of compulsion, with punishment if they did not…
October 10, 2021
oh that place that produced millions glugging back dodgy vodka where you could lie down in the snow and die, but nobody cares.
October 10, 2021
An “element of compulsion” that resulted in the deaths of about twenty million Russians and Ukrainians before the Second World War even began.
October 11, 2021
Quite.
October 10, 2021
Bigneil did you read about the judge this week that allowed the asylum seekers (economic migrants) to claim back from the British Government all of their telephone charges?
October 10, 2021
Tracy, some of these claimants are no doubt frauds.
However, there are the genuine too, and there is no reason why the Judge should not allow them to reclaim whatever costs they have incurred in making their cases if upheld.
You, however, have chosen to label them all as fraudulent, but on no evidential basis whatsoever.
You bring the moral character of the British people, of whom you are a representative at all times, into disrepute by so doing publicly.
October 11, 2021
NLH – since when does the government pay for anyone’s telephone calls, they will have wifi they can use to make free calls, there are wifi spots around like most low-income people have to find. You amaze me you really do. They chose to leave their families and come to the UK, it is not for the UK to pay for anyone’s telephone calls nothing to do with fraud. We pay for the room over their heads, their food, and give them a daily allowance to spend. They obviously have enough money for phones.
October 10, 2021
@a-tracy – By entering a country from a safe domain, you are not seeking asylum, you are simply an illegal – by that definition a criminal.
The UK has systems and procedures for seeking asylum. These people escaping the EU are robbing the genuine person seeking refuge from persecutions of a place, something the UK people are only happy to provide.
It should be their own embassy’s that pay their phone bills
October 11, 2021
No Ta, you are simply wrong as to the facts of the law on asylum.
October 11, 2021
NLH – wrong to the facts of law on asylum so why does France get away with pulling down tents, housing people in offices with a lack of toilets and bathrooms, keeping them in such a poor way they are willing to risk their lives with a criminal operation that France turns a blind eye to.
October 11, 2021
Tracy, you are perhaps referring to a minority in France who often will not co-operate with the French authorities, who are not claiming asylum there, often will not identify themselves nor their origin, and who say that they want to leave anyway for the UK.
You can research the French and international law on such cases yourself if you wish.
October 12, 2021
NLH – I’m not interested in French law they just getting away with breaking UN rules all of the time and they are not happy with what France does in relation to people unlike yourself that tries to justify it.
Then again it is only like this story in the Guardian yesterday – Typical of those lost in the appeals process is âAliahâ, from Trinidad, who has lived in that limbo for seven years. Seems some asylum seekers in the UK can slip through this French type net. Yet Polly will quote them as though they are going through the official process…..asylum seekers are here to stay, whether or not the Home Office, or indeed voters, want them to, because itâs virtually impossible to return them anywhere, when no country will take them: in 2019, only about 4,000 were forced to return.
Yet this is from our government sites:
Eligibility
To stay in the UK as a refugee you must be unable to live safely in any part of your own country because you fear persecution there.
If youâre stateless, your own country is the country you usually live in.
This persecution must be because of:
⢠your race
⢠your religion
⢠your nationality
⢠your political opinion
⢠anything else that puts you at risk because of the social, cultural, religious or political situation in your country, for example, your gender, gender identity or sexual orientation
You must have failed to get protection from authorities in your own country.
When your claim might not be considered
Your claim might not be considered if you:
⢠are from an EU country
⢠travelled to the UK through a âsafe third countryâ
⢠have a connection to a safe third country where you could claim asylum
Generally, a safe third country is one that:
⢠youâre not a citizen of
⢠you would not be harmed in
⢠would not send you on to another country where you would be harmed
Family members
You can include your partner and your children under 18 as âdependantsâ in your application if theyâre with you in the UK.
Your children under 18 and your partner can also make their own applications at the same time, but they will not be treated as your dependants.
October 10, 2021
Off topic, yet another letter to my local newspaper, the Maidenhead Advertiser:
“According to Brexit minister Lord Frost “the unity of the country is paramount”.
Unfortunately that is very much open to question as far as his boss Boris Johnson is concerned, seeing that he readily agreed to leave Northern Ireland behind under EU economic rule, with oversight by the EU court, when the rest of the UK was being removed from the orbit of EU law.
And given that almost to the man and woman they did as Boris Johnson ordered and voted for a Bill which would repeal Article 6 of the Act of Union there must also be a big question mark over the commitment of so-called “Conservative and Unionist” MPs to the unity of the country.
To be charitable, perhaps they did not properly understand what they were doing; which may also apply to the Prime Minister himself, despite ample warnings from his predecessor whose own daft scheme would have at least kept the whole country together under swathes of EU laws.
It is now getting on for four years since the Irish government under Leo Varadkar decided to build an insurmountable mountain out a small molehill on the land border, and Theresa May had plenty of opportunities to dismiss their ploy as the nonsense that it was but chose not to do so.
The sensible solution is the same now as it was then: controls on the small volume of goods exported from Northern Ireland into the Republic, to be operated away from border, as declared feasible by Lord Frost, not controls on the much larger volume of goods brought into the province.”
Lord Frost’s statement that “the unity of the country is paramount” may be heard here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGilef-gDjM&t=2975s
October 10, 2021
Lord Frost is barking up the wrong tree if he thinks he can threaten the EU ‘ad nauseam’ with no consequences-
October 10, 2021
What consequences? We run a huge trade deficit with them, so we automatically win any tit-for-tat trade war. That threat is how we got the FTA in the first place. If the FTA had not been in their interests, they would not have agreed to it, and the same for us.
They have no more interest in blowing up the overrall FTA than we do, so the dispute over the NIP will be kept within the NIP. In fact, that’s part of the reason why the NIP was written as a separate deal in the first place, so that we could have a tug of war over half of one percent of our trade without bringing the whole construct down.
October 11, 2021
Trade is not a zero sum matter, Jon, and there is rather more to the life of nations than a balance of payments.
Have fuel queues, the shutdowns of key industries such as food owing to CO2 shortages, pigs being incinerated, crops rotting in fields, exposure to gas price spikes, empty shelves, and all the rest taught you nothing?
October 12, 2021
Not really, because I already knew that Boris Johnson can behave very stupidly.
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2021/10/08/more-energy-please/#comment-1266342
October 12, 2021
NLH – fuel queues weren’t caused by the government. They were caused by a tanker company (German-owned I was told by hefner) who reported a small issue that is a regular feature with unexpected sickness absence combined with holidays with less than a handful of stations in a remote region. The media got hold of the story and blew it up. The media never asked just how many EU drivers are employed to drive tankers to British fuel stations on a permanent basis, were the EU drivers the company said they were short all employees or self-employed (agency drivers – foreign agency or UK agency). How many resigned this summer 2021 with no notice? Do these fuel companies have a driver waiting list or not? Did these fuel companies turn down the offer of retired drivers still capable of driving these vehicles or not? I hope someone in government is asking these questions so that they can’t be accused in the future of having their eyes off the ball. This government now knows where this ball is, and they need to ensure they ask more questions to secure our UK fuel needs moving forwards, otherwise, they might have to ask BP to re-tender out the work to a company with better crisis planning. The fuel crisis was overblown in much of the Country and a big investigation needs to be carried out now it’s over in London and the South East in particular. I hope Shapps is onto this and not just sitting back and relieved it’s over.
October 10, 2021
The first thing the Govt should do is abolish VAT on energy, especially the 20% they levy on non-VAT small businesses. Itâs a killer! Especially in tne north of England which is the coldest and darkest part of England.
October 10, 2021
Correct Lynn and without hesitation they should do it today
October 11, 2021
@Lynn, yes. Contradictions all round, the US is dictating the UK’s Corporation Tax (While doing it different its self), then whereas the UK is pushing 20% in VAT the US equivalent hovers around 6%.
October 10, 2021
big neil above: : Keep printing the ÂŁ. Where will the next boatload be going- I think that one may still be being worked on after the 1100, one thousand one hundred, arrivals on Friday / Saturday, on our south coast reportedly a large number of those from a country which is having an election today so they obviously missed the chance to do something for their own country in the interests of democracy & a better life for their families. Donât ask though about those filmed leaving a beach & heading up a country lane after that landing, not wishing to be bothered by our officials. Not an unusual sight however, which continues. But what we hear is a member of our government stating that â weâve worked very effectively with the French so far âŚâ No one seems to speak about national security. Anyone who is close to what is happening & who challenges, comments, passes on their own observations or footage, is often blighted as Far Right.
On the other hand we have the French Interior Minister stating that of the ÂŁ 54 million, the UK has not paid one penny & claims that over the last three months, interceptions of boats has risen from 50% to 65% and that they can reach 100% if the UK gives them what was promised. They are already incurring operational expenses and understandably want their money. I wonder if he could tell us if they paid mobile phone calls allowances to these intrepid travellers.
Now others in hotels reportedly expressing wishes to return home and in some cases requiring medication because of feeling upset at their having to be, temporarily, sheltered, fed, kept warm and provided for in hotel accommodation. Housing is being secured for migrants as we speak, as others have mentioned, some we know about, the rest with perhaps some degree of stealth. I am reliably informed by a family member in their area that blocks of flats are being prepared and local hotels / units given over to migrants the last year or two. And this is the norm throughout the country reported day in day out. Other related things reported with frequency are less savoury & not for discussion here but somebody needs to do just that. Madness.
October 10, 2021
”According to media reports, the UK governmentâs Offshore Petroleum Regulator for Environment and Decommissioning (OPRED) had refused permission for Royal Dutch Shell to further develop the Jackdaw gas field in the North It is not clear why OPRED rejected Royal Dutch Shellâs proposal on the Jackdaw field, which could have supplied up to 10% of annual consumption of natural gas in the UK”
https://www.thegwpf.com/government-refusal-of-north-sea-natural-gas-field-is-irrational/
October 10, 2021
I can’t get too excited about inflation because I have lived through times of very high inflation, by today’s standards, and it didn’t have much effect on anything. In fact, the occasion that is usually trotted out to scare you about inflation, Germany in 1923 was a time of decent growth and low unemployment. The deep recession an high unemployment didn’t come along until 1930, just like everywhere else.
However, the euro is an area of concern for two reasons. One is that you can’t have a common currency that has widely differing rates of inflation in different member countries, as we found out during the euro crisis of 2005. And the second is that the Germans, with their well-known obsession with inflation – due to a mis-telling of the history of 1923 – will do everything to suppress inflation in the euro, and probably at time when they should let it go.
If we get more inflation and an energy-induced economic crisis at the same time, you can expect a rerun of the euro crisis, and that will result in extremely bitter politics between the euro members. It could get very nasty.
October 11, 2021
The UK has different rates of inflation in the various counties and regions, Jon.
Especially if you include residential property etc.
October 10, 2021
energyvoice.com
claims it is – leading the energy conversation.
under the opinion heading i see the following headings–
Virtue alone will not keep the lights on.
and-
Cop26: Can it strangle ideology and replace it with logic ?
I feel as if i have stepped into a world of sane minds!
October 10, 2021
I was watching the statement by Kwasi Kwarteng on energy this morning, and I think this may be a guy to watch. He’s got a massively calm presence and when an interviewer is trying to push him, he has a way of putting them in their place and making them look small, all without any rhetorical tricks or evasions.
October 10, 2021
Inflationary pressures were inevitable once central banks moved seamlessly from counting in millions to calculating in billions. How long ago was that ? As I recall in just the last decade or two. Recently they have contrived to creating in the trillions. Unless interest rates rise it can only end in tears. I suspect that sometime in the future a devaluation will be necessary to save us carrying our cash to the supermarket in wheelbarrows.
October 11, 2021
@Excalibur – then again the ‘billion’ has been devalued in less than a lifetime. Its actual value is now 1000 time less than previous in the UK
October 10, 2021
At the moment, the United Kingdom has 1.1 gigawatts (GW) of operational battery capacity to store power that can then be fed back into the grid when required. An additional 15 GW of capacity is under construction or being planned, much of it by companies also investing in renewable power assets.
This is going to be the long-term answer to the instability of renewable energy sources. Even 15 GW isn’t very much, but you can see it is growing. When the capacity gets really big, we won’t have to worry about a day with no wind.
How big? Well the UK’s grid capacity is about 85 GW and annual production of 323,157 GWh. Both numbers circa 2017,
October 13, 2021
You mentioned low pay in driving as a factor – recent analyses show that IR35 is actually the underlying force here, but of course the govt don’t want to highlight that fact, nor do the MSM.
And yes, the two are related – IR35 means more tax, so if pay was already low then more tax makes it lower still.
Few are aware that the consultancies lobbied for IR35 and the Blair govt gave it to them – since it prevents them being undercut by one-man band companies. However, the lorry driver crisis was caused/exacerbated when IR35 was extended into the private sector…
And again, etc ed