It is difficult to fathom why the Treasury would want to base a budget on out of date forecasts or on forecasts they expect to be wrong, yet that is what the press allege. They tell us there is an earlier pre budget cut off date for the forecasts than usual, and that the Treasury accepts the deficit and debt forecasts which have already proved wildly pessimistic this year to date as they did last year. Surely the Treasury should push back hard on the OBR estimates and say they will only treat them seriously if they improve markedly.
It may be that the aim is to follow a tax rise and spending cut policy to slow the economy more to get closer to the poor forecasts. That could work, but why do it when you could have a policy that got you better outcomes on growth and on the deficit.It is clear the tax rises already announced and the Bank of England rate rise threats have slowed the economy badly in recent weeks, alongside the media driven petrol scare and the Lack of wind power.
It appears that there some gas turbine power stations that have been closed that could be brought back into use quite quickly and cheaply. The Business Department should commission them for stand by and back up power for when renewables fail.
The supply issues over petrol and diesel are resolved. The shortages were caused by panic top ups, not an underlying shortage of fuel. The HGV driver shortage will take a bit longer to clear, but training and recruitment numbers are rising. The on line delivery networks have shown the right offers can secure a big expansion of capacity.
The Budget needs to go for growth. An austerity budget now would be a bad idea. Injecting some good control over spending to secure more value for money is also crucial. The Treasury needs to slim Test and Trace and redirect some of the additional Ā£64 bn awarded to the NHS in the last two years to tackling waiting lists and non covid treatments.
October 17, 2021
A persuasive case you make – so what is Chancellor Sunak playing at?
October 17, 2021
+1
I suppose that JR could be playing Devilās Advocate but he certainly knows what he is talking about financially.
And the government either has no clue or genuinely wishes to further lay waste this once-nation that they have in their grasp.
I think that a lot of MPs must be feeling a bit shaky today. Shock is a horrible thing.
Leigh always seems so benign and safeā¦like England used to be.
October 17, 2021
All the more reason to express appreciation for our host’s perseverance in such sadly ominous times.
October 17, 2021
+1
Thanks, Sir John.
October 17, 2021
E,
It is a sort of weird apology for messing up the economy through failed policies over 11 years. This is self-inflicted messes created by his successive govt!. All the points JR makes are of his own party and govt failings!! How long does it take or does he want to change key policies, civil service, public sector, BBC? All subject of blogs and Pseudo satire letters, but when can we expect delivery on key policies? When can we ever believe a Tory manifesto? When can we expect low tax, low govt involvement, better public services and well run economy?
LL, would tell us daily, high tax , high spend and piss down the drain authoritarian govt!
October 17, 2021
+1 Hope
October 17, 2021
He wants to be able to offer tax cuts ahead of the next election. To do that he needs to raise them now so he can cut them later. It wouldn’t be the first time it has happened.
October 18, 2021
That is what I have been thinking.
October 17, 2021
Far from being a sensible and sound Thatcherite type of chancellor (as the BBC suggest he is) he is clearly a tax borrow and piss down the drain, deluded, anti-business socialist. His very first act was to cut entrepreneurs CGT relief by 90% this even before Covid 19. He even thought taxing people more and using their money to buy other restaurant meals was sensible – it is total economic insanity. We were hugely over taxed and regulated even before he started making it worse. IR35 is doing huge harm (for truck drivers and all over the place) too but he will not even cancel that, net zero or even HS2 .
October 17, 2021
Some figures.
Looking at the post war stats it seems MPs are sadly about 10 times more likely to be murdered than the average person in the UK. But they are rather safer than someone living in Philadelphia and about 6 times safer than someone living in Jamaica.
What can be done? The last thing we want is MPs who are even worse than the current (mainly scientifically and economically illiterate) ones any paying them more would probably just encourage even more career politicians.
October 17, 2021
Reminds me of the Barry McGuire song, “Eve of destruction”.
October 17, 2021
O/T Two months have elapsed since your invitation to the Archbishop of York: will you soon have any update please?
Reply The Archbishop does not reply!
October 17, 2021
Iām not sure why there is any surprise.
These are the same people who oversaw the imprisonment of innocent U.K. citizens, deprived them of food , police, healthcare and sanity.
We are now two years into a quagmire of lies and maltreatmentā¦torture probably, according to the international laws that used to pertain.
Whatever they do financiallyā¦it will be BAD.
October 17, 2021
John you are worrying about a small aspect of life that actually affects MPs.
MPs (and senior civil servants) already have private health insurance they never talk about so they donāt have to experience their own policies on health care. Now we find out MPs also have their own private security, from Chubb and soon ADT, so they donāt have to face their own policies on the security of this country.
Iām sure MPs would give themselves private petrol stations if they could.
reply I do not have private health insurance as an MP.
October 17, 2021
Sensible not to have health insurance better to save the premiums and pay if and when you need too. That way you do no contribute the 12% IPT tax and to profits, overheads, fraudulent claims and admin cost of the insurance companies and you save all the hassle of organising it and making claims. But do not expect the NHS to deliver, already over 50% of hip and knee ops are done privately as the NHS is too slow and rationed.
Only about 1/7 th of the people who died of Covid received any intensive care treatment at all it seems. Japanās healthcare system has about 200 more ECMO machines per head than the NHS. Why do the NHS not have these the Japanese (USA and many others) obviously think they needed them? The NHS is a dire system.
October 17, 2021
THIS especially if you keep yourself fairly fit, are not over weight, do not drink too much or take drugs, avoid very dangerous sports (horses for example) and have parents who are similarly blessed & lived or are living long health lives.
October 17, 2021
Dear Lifelogic–In the nicest possible way, you do not seem to have much idea how insurance works, viz one seeks to have a means of paying sometimes enormous sums that most people could not save up for in a lifetime of Sundays.
October 18, 2021
UK median cost for one hip replacement Ā£11,315 (privatehealth.co.uk)
Comprehensive health insurance policy Ā£90/month, Ā£1,080/year (drewberryinsurance.co.uk).
Anybody unlucky enough to require a double hip replacement should have a nest egg of at least Ā£22,630 (and that is assuming that only hips might be the problem, and being otherwise fairly fit, not overweight, not drinking too much, not taking drugs, not doing any dangerous sports, and having parents similarly blessed with long healthy lives).
Hernia operation between Ā£2k and Ā£5k (hje.org.uk)
Knee ligament reconstruction Ā£5k-Ā£8.8k (privatehealth.co.uk)
For other interventions netdoctor.co.uk (āHow much will a private operation costā, 03/12/2013 old figures)
So, no problem, as LL says, no need for the NHS nor even for private health insurance: a little nest egg of about Ā£30k, possibly Ā£60k if your spouse is still around should cover this type of medical expenses.
And obviously affordable by everybody these days, specially the non-domiciled for tax purposes.
(Sorry not to be able to put it in the nicest possible way, as Leslie S did).
October 18, 2021
We pay a few thousands a year for NHS if you earn an average wage times two in a home.
So not very different really hef.
October 18, 2021
In those circumstances (of very large but rather rare claims) it can perhaps be sometimes justified but most medical cover is not like this at all (not is travel, contents cover etc.)
You are as I say generally far better off saving the premiums and the 12% premium tax the investing it and paying out as you need too for the many reasons I give. Far cheaper and less hassle too.
October 19, 2021
Pescatarian2, this was not the point. LLās point was that a private insurance was without merit (mostly, according to his latest comment) and it was better to keep the money potentially given to such a private insurance and create oneās own health fund.
Have you read LLās original post?
October 18, 2021
Japanese NHS has 10 times as many beds than the NHS with twice the population of UK. No GP style ‘gatekeeper’, you just go to any clinic or hospital you wish. I have used Tokyo hospitals and clinics quite a lot recently and can confirm the system is unbelievably efficient compared with the NHS. Unfair to compare Tokyo with small town Lancashire perhaps, but the whole system is just far better.
Blood test for example, 10 mins waiting and lab results on the doctor’s computer within an hour. Cost about Ā£1.50. You pay 10% of the actual cost and are therefore treated as a valued customer, not a nuisance to be kept at bay. Like it or not, that’s the only way to drive out waste because every Yen is accounted for. Also it makes everybody focus on a healthy life style. Not to mention state of the art facilities & equipment and fantastic attention to detail.
October 17, 2021
Reply to reply. Do you have your own private health insurance? I donāt. I canāt afford it. When I needed the NHS a while ago for a hernia operation it wasnāt there. I had to pay for a private operation.
October 18, 2021
How many years premiums had you saved? More or less than the cost of the op?
October 17, 2021
Well they certainly have special tax and expenses laws and special pension arrangements. The Lords even get a large, daily, tax fee bung.
This more than some workers have left after tax and NO on their salaries per week.
October 17, 2021
MPs awarded themselves Good pensions based on RPI and enforce CPI for everyone else! Same for tax benefits in kind! Inflation soaring at the moment bad for everyone but good for MPs pensions!
October 18, 2021
Sir John, I imagine you pay for private health insurance. Sadly since NHS has been in failure mode for at least a decade that would be a very wise decision for all who can pay for it, but millions cannot afford the cost for their family.
Reply I do not
October 17, 2021
This is a subject that comes up all too often. Quite rightly so, for if we can’t trust the Treasury to get things right then we are truly in trouble!
…for it seems that those in the Treasury, those pulling the strings, do not really want us to do well.
There will be no comeback if the UK’s economy is badly damaged by inept or tainted management! Causing us to go into a major recession due to policies that bear no resemblance to the conditions at this time, disregarding history and real economics. It borders on the criminal.
If there were more MPs who understood economics then perhaps this could be sorted out – I fear we are totally at the effect of mismanagement.
October 17, 2021
Plan for the unexpected.
So you need to build about ten times the UK’s existing gas storage before winter, Sir John.
Never mind, the market and private sector will sort it, won’t it?
October 17, 2021
Yes. the private sector will ‘sort it’ as we saw last week in Northern Ireland at Larne given the go-ahead to the Islandmagee Gas Storage project which when developed will turn Northern Ireland into a gas exporter to Britain
Your solution is to put the lumpen bureaucrat in charge. Understand one thing. The British State has since 1997 become a LIABILITY and a political and financial vested interest in its own right. This client state project is designed to destroy direct democracy and embed a perpetual presence inside the body politic of progressives and Socialists who won’t be content until the UK as we know it completely disintegrates
We enjoy all that we have today thanks to the PRIVATE SECTOR. All comes from the private. The State then takes it % and spends it to construct a political machine designed not to promote the British nation and its people but to promote itself
The State and those who control it is now detached from and opposed to the British people not aligned to them
October 17, 2021
Gas storage isn’t favoured by government who wants net zero and to wean us off fossil fuels.
I thought you were also a fan of this NLH?
Suddenly you want lots of gas and lots of gas storage.
Not one power cut yet and already you have a new policy
October 17, 2021
People here will soon be paying several times for their gas – and electricity too – what users in France, in Italy etc. pay, owing to being forced to buy at spike prices.
I look forward to your explaining how lucky the British are, to have had rule under a doctrine which inevitably led to that.
October 17, 2021
I note NLH, you concede that EU nations with greater gas storage will also pay higher market prices.
Gas storage is really about level of back up not price.
You want less reliance on all fossil fuels.
Yet you now want more gas storage capacity.
How does that work logically?
October 18, 2021
NLH – but windmills – they’re going to save our bacon aren’t they? How much did we invest in them in the last decade?
October 18, 2021
There are a number of words to describe someone such as you who enjoy finding any ‘failing’ or inventing one to troll on here. I won’t list them because I know Sir John would not allow.
October 19, 2021
I’m not looking forward to paying several times more for my gas than need have been any more than anyone else is, Micky.
However, I’d like us all to be clear about how that has come about.
October 17, 2021
Sir John
You display so many common sense but itās a shame that it wonāt have any effect on the government
Margaret Ashworth on TCW this morning perfectly sums up Johnson
October 17, 2021
+1
October 17, 2021
as you say the NHS has had lots of money handed over, and the service remains sub third world.
the narrative that the politicians not handing over enough money is the problem is clearly wrong.
the NHS management need to be told in no uncertain terms that their performance is not good enough.
hand a lot more buying power over to individual patients.
October 17, 2021
Iain Gill
Performance is not good enough.
Totally correct Iain. The NHS has a culture bred over 74 years and the task has not changed. What has changed is the layer upon layer of management created to monitor and record silly targets set by Ministers and their Quangos. Night of the long knives is required to bring the NHS kicking and screaming into the 21st century. Every hospital has different priorities depending on location even within a trust. No more top down, release the power of the real front line of nurses, porters and cleaners. They will tell you what is really needed, they see it every working day of their lives.
October 17, 2021
The NHS should not be running separate bureaucracies on “Diversity” and “Net Zero”
https://www.england.nhs.uk/greenernhs/2020/10/nhs-becomes-the-worlds-first-national-health-system-to-commit-to-become-carbon-net-zero-backed-by-clear-deliverables-and-milestones/
Job creation scheme with no benefit to patients:
Net Zero Programme Manager, London, Ā£54,764āĀ£63,862 a year
“Fullātime – This is an exciting position in the Greener NHSās Net Zero Operations function, within the wider Greener NHS central programme team. Itās a great time to join the programme, following the commitment by the NHS to become the worldās first Net Zero national health system, alongside the appointment of the NHSā first Chief Sustainability Officer.
The Greener NHS programme works closely with both corporate and regional teams across NHS England and NHS Improvement, with local health systems, Trusts and other stakeholders. We are uniquely placed to understand and reduce the environmental impacts of health and care and save thousands of lives and hospitalisations across the country.”
Meanwhile the queues get longer and more is thrown into the NHS money pit.
October 17, 2021
Total insanity from the dire NHS!
October 17, 2021
We’re still in the EU according to the treasury. Slavishly following EU budget rules
I bet they send Brussels a copy of the budget for approval.
There are toimany remainers influencing government including the RHA who are against Brexit.
Time for a clear out.
October 17, 2021
Ian Wragg
Time for a clear out
Agree Ian, it has been too long in coming.
Place the Civil Service on payment by results (PBR) It will really focus minds, the staff will drive the improvements and hunt down the waste. Those who have no wish to be part of the brave new world of PBR can jump before they are pushed. After all we are in the 21st century.
October 17, 2021
Ian
There is now thanks initially to Blair and Brown no one left within politics to perform the ‘clear out’. All, except a few refuseniks, are singing the same hymn sheet. The change can now only come from external sources. Turkeys do not vote for Christmas
October 17, 2021
Er, Parliament is supreme, not the civil service, and it has been Tory for eleven years.
You seem not to get even the basics of your own country.
October 17, 2021
Ian Wragg
For the moment there are no EU budget rules for the moment and we do not know when they will be reimplemented so you are talking rubbish I am afraid
October 17, 2021
Gosh no EU budget rules.
Who knew?
October 19, 2021
Oh, what a start for a decent debate.
October 17, 2021
The title made me think you would extol the virtues of urgently getting that insulation done that was put off, the boiler serviced, the car checked out and warmer clothes inspected for use. Instead of that you gave us criticism of budget reference that will be out of date, yet forms the basis for national economic policy! At least you cheer us up with the notion of gas power stations being readied that were mothballed.
Hopefully the forces that agitated and succeeded in petrol and diesel price increases will now relax – mission accomplished. Will detail emerge on just how the massive added spending power given to the NHS will be used, we have heard how the hundreds of ‘bosses’ got an early Christmas present in salary hikes, yet the majority of incomes in the country will be under worse pressure than ever before to celebrate and spend.
October 17, 2021
Written hours ago -this morning, but not posted?
I hope this means you are enjoying a day off -well deserved, but if you have taken umbridge at something I can’t imagine why!
October 17, 2021
An austerity budget is a bad idea you say.
Government spending cuts = austerity for those depending on pensions, benefits and government support.
Tax rises = austerity for the general population and business.
Borrowing = austerity passed on to the next generation.
That leaves government abandoning spending on vanity projects. So can we see HS2 and nuclear weapons spending ending?
The general population is being faced with rocketing energy costs and already hit with high housing costs. Isn’t that too much austerity already without the double whammy of tax rises?
October 17, 2021
āIt is difficult to fathom why the Treasury would want to base a budget on out of date forecasts or on forecasts they expect to be wrong, yet that is what the press allege.ā
The treasury is an EU supporting fifth column.
If something doesnāt make sense it is because there is something we have not been told.
It could be information but it could also be objectives, targets or goals.
October 17, 2021
PS : āIt could be information but it could also be objectives, targets or goals.ā
For example, it could be that climate change will be used as an excuse for the higher taxes on, and the rationing of, energy, plus the use of other fiscal measures deemed necessary to control our lifestyles and pay for the economic mess caused by the poor handling of the Covid pandemic.
October 17, 2021
I assume the Treasury is planning based on incorrect forecasts for the same reason that SAGE are: those forecasts support the pre-determined policy measures that they want to implement anyway for political reasons. See also climate modelling.
October 17, 2021
Off topic, will our embassy in Dublin allow this nonsense to go unchallenged? Of course it will.
https://www.businesspost.ie/business-posts-view/editorial-britains-ire-is-because-the-protocol-shields-the-north-from-the-brexit-shambles-27753c52
“There is a whiff of vindictiveness in the British governmentās approach to the Northern Ireland protocol. Not content with the economic and political damage they have inflicted on Britain, through the Brexit deal they negotiated, signed and ratified, prime minister Boris Johnson and David Frost, his Brexit minister, are now moving to impose the same calamity on the North.
It is painfully obvious that Brexit isnāt working. In Britain, there are shortages of … ”
I would be among the first to agree that Boris Johnson has made matters worse with his stupid decisions – after all these years there was absolutely no need to immediately cut back on the numbers of EU workers in the country, that could have perfectly well been done gradually over a number of years, starting next year, with minimal disruption – but the Irish are being told that the UK is virtually on its knees thanks to Brexit.
October 17, 2021
If it is true that “the Irish are being told that the UK is virtually on its knees thanks to Brexit” exactly what difference could that make to Irish opinions of Britain, Irish sentiments towards Britain, or Irish wishes for Britain’s future?
Let’s focus on what can be changed.
October 17, 2021
Of course Irish public opinion will potentially make a difference to the attitude of the Irish government.
October 18, 2021
Irish watch BBC programmes for free so are receiving continual anti-British propaganda in addition to their own broadcasters.
October 17, 2021
Planning for winter.
Chop and dry some wood, buy coal, some thermals, electric blankets, fill up the oil tank and get some jumpers and ski jackets. A way to charge your phone and laptop from the car battery and a full tank of fuel.
Also find a good good tax advisor.
October 17, 2021
Yes, that’s eleven years of Tory rule and brexit for you.
The twenty-seven have no such problems on the other hand.
October 17, 2021
Yeah right…no problem the other 27 nations left in the EU.
October 17, 2021
NLH – I hope the Eu are giving you bonus for all this weekend overtime. Is Martin due back off his holiday Monday or are you here for the long haul.
October 18, 2021
I might add that covid19 vaccination take up in most large European Union countries has now overtaken the UK, their cases-per-million per day are generally a mere one tenth of the UK’s or fewer, and their deaths-per-million-per day proportionally lower too.
The UK’s appalling stats feature very prominently in their news these days, unsurprisingly.
October 18, 2021
NLH, everyone that wanted a Covid-19 vaccine in the UK could have one and they were done very quickly with all those most at risk done in a very impressive timescale.
If UK residents choose not to be vaccinated then that is their free will and their risk it is not down to the governmentās application that was very impressive. We do read about vaccine passports where people canāt work or go out and all the protests about it in Italy where the people are getting water cannoned. Do you think the UK government should do the same and force people to vaccinate?
October 18, 2021
What a load of cobblers.
October 17, 2021
We all have a duty to keep our MPs safe says Jacqui Smith in the Telegraph. – how can most people do anything of the sort?
Sounds a bit like it is our duty to āprotect the NHSā when they are there to treat us. – no dear the police and authorities are there to protect all of us by keeping dangerous and dangerously mad people off the streets that is what we pay vast taxes for – to protect all of us – girls at pop stations, members of the public, MPsā¦ everyone.
October 17, 2021
pop concerts – I meant.
October 17, 2021
“The supply issues over petrol and diesel are resolved. The shortages were caused by panic top ups, not an underlying shortage of fuel. “
No, the cause was (and still is) an underlying shortage of suitably trained HGV drivers, that is why the govt had to ask the MOD to provide their trained HGV drivers after all, even if done with reluctance. Yours is like a Labour MP in early 1979 blaming people for having to much rubbish or what ever, after all there was never any shortage of landfill sites, cemeteries etc, just public sector workers because so many had gone on strike!
You also appear to be taking (on Twitter) a very USSR politburo style attitude to the known supply side problems that will play out between now and December, and probably well into the new year. You think the public can not see products are not available, many of which had Q3 & Q4 2021 release dates announced a year or more ago? It will take more than asking the media not to publish stories about non availability or shortages, you’ll need companies etc to lie about why their products are not on sale as promised. The age of spin is over in the age of the internet, heck, there are even web forums were the discussion is often all but devoted to tracking the shipping containers containing promised products, some of which the customers have already paid deposits on.
October 17, 2021
Jerry, are Hoyerās tankers still being driven by Army personnel now? Do you know how many are currently deployed? Do you have the details on how many EU drivers were employed by Hoyer as tanker drivers on a permanent basis? Were they permanently living in the UK before covid or were they subbies, it does make a difference? Were any of them furloughed until the end of September?
October 18, 2021
@a-treacy; Nice rant, but your point being what though?
October 17, 2021
“The Treasury needs to slim Test and Trace”
The number of tests carried out in the UK is now equivalent to 464% of the population. The next closest is France at 223% and the USA at 200%. Germany has tested 87.3% and Sweden with no lockdowns has tested 127% equivalent of its population.
Mortality %’s from the start of the pandemic are UK 0.2%, US 0.19%, France 0.18%, Germany 0.11%, Sweden 0.15%
One has to wonder what is the value of continued testing, the total cost of which is more than the GDP of some poorer countries in the world.
October 18, 2021
Drop a stone into a pond and watch the ripples spread out. Now apply that to, Test and Trace, as you see how this is used to perpetuate the mass hysteria that has been forced upon. Test and trace is not about keeping people safe, it is about maintain control at a subtle level by keeping the fear heightened.
October 17, 2021
Tax increases, energy cost increases, removal of temporary benefits, general inflationary increases and possible interest rate increases.
This winter, many of the poorer in society will freeze in their homes.
Politicians need to produce more hot air, as a matter of urgency.
October 18, 2021
Food prices are about to go through the roof. Fertilizer is some six times the cost it was a year ago. Fuel is increasing and if interest rate are to rise then investment will begin to fall. Job cuts and pay freezes in the Private Sector will make for an unhappy electorate, many of whom vote Conservative.
October 18, 2021
*In the UK.
October 17, 2021
The next media drive is on Christmas toys and meat. Now why are they doing this? Weāll soon find out.
They helped to create the fuel crisis through panic buying (which also got rid of a lot of old E5 fuel that couldnāt be sold after the end of September) in the aim to get the government to overturn cabotage rules and allow EU drivers free reign to undercut the companies that are expect to increase UK wages that will make them uncompetitive ( we need to check these EU drivers have all the right licences and Cpc points before they drive here.). By doing this there will be plenty of out of work drivers soon enough and weāll be told the cabotage rules have to stay. By the way the cabotage rules for UK drivers in the EU are one trip. Once again weāre on our knees because we donāt understand the game but our leaders understand what theyāre doing.
October 17, 2021
By the way a small solution would be that these EU vans have to pay daily VED at the same rates British HGVs pay, they should have to pay the drivers the same rates of pay per hour and keep to the same driving hours rules with checks on their tachographs, fine these drivers for not parking in lorry parks if there is one within 10 miles that has spaces, oh and make them pay their speeding fines and parking fines before they get back on the boat or travel through the tunnel. The Germans do that to British drivers they have to pay or get their van impounded.
October 17, 2021
Yes, you can fantasise as to who is to blame for the fact that everyday life is turning into an unaffordable pile of doo-doo for millions here if you like.
The fact is, that in the European Union – and NI too – the simple fact is they don’t need to do that ‘cos it ain’t.
October 17, 2021
Higher unemployment in the EU than here.
Lower growth in the EU than here.
I could go on but just two examples of how ridiculous your claims are NLH
October 18, 2021
Why have the millions crossed the ‘Channel’ to come here?
October 18, 2021
May’s level playing field. They take us for fools.
October 17, 2021
We will need those gas turbine power stations for regular use in the winter whether or not renewables are contributing to our needs. Forecasts of likely demand already exceed the available capacity over the next decade and are probably an underestimate, if Brexit delivers the promised improvements in growth.
The latter will depend on the civil service getting its collective finger out and doing what is necessary.
October 17, 2021
It strikes me that our government talks big, but lacks imagination.
I note that there are now rumours that the treasury is going to block the building of a new underground through station at Manchester Piccadilly to allow through trains from West Yorkshire to Manchester Airport and Liverpool. And it is now an open rumour that because of the vast amounts of taxpayers money “invested” (aka wasted) on the southern section of HS2 the link to Leeds cannot now be afforded. Still far too much London comes first when it comes to spending taxpayers money.
Meanwhile the Russians are building and deploying floating Nuclear Power Plants so that they can bring back significant economic activity to their far flung outposts in the Arctic (Pevek).
Perhaps we should buy floating NPPs from Russia, as the RR modular nuclear plants won’t be available for nearly a decade!
Probably better to buy our Nuclear technology from Russia than China as we already depend on Russian gas for energy.
October 17, 2021
For this winter Iād recommend hoarding as much ācoalā as you can lay your hands onā¦its going to be a difficult winter (but not for the elite imperial families of old Europe, attending cop26)
October 17, 2021
I take your point, but as the Bank of England is proving itself incapable of getting inflation down to its target, the government may have to try to do so by fiscal policy.
October 17, 2021
I agree. I think government’s economic policy is contradictory and incoherent.It is perfectly obvious that we need growth both post Covid and Brexit so increasing Corporation Tax and NIC makes no sense at all
We need to be self sufficient in energy and reduce not just the budgetary but also the trade deficit, so why not start fracking in the North West ,coke coal mining in Cumbria and oil drilling in the Jupiter field ?
October 17, 2021
John, I have almost given up on trying to fathom out the governments reasoning on many policies it proposes and is set to introduce.
I see they are now offering local surgeries Ā£25,000,000 extra to encourage Doctors to see patients face – face.
Pray tell me what has changed since the original set up of a couple of years ago, pre Covid, when face – face consultations were the norm, that is if you waited ages and could get through the constant engaged telephone signal, or waited even longer on hold to be followed by the barrage of questions from a receptionist.
What exactly is the Ā£25,000,000 going to fund ?
October 17, 2021
OOp’s its Ā£250,000,000 not Ā£25,000,000 ten times as large.
To be spent on what exactly ?
How has this figure been calculated ?
October 17, 2021
Paying GPs more is counter productive.
They’re already so well paid that many, if not most, are able and prefer to work part time.
Paying them even more will lead to even less time actually working.
October 18, 2021
yep – more part-timers giving time for more private work fees.
October 17, 2021
Wrong of me I know, but I’m almost hoping that the lights will go out during COP 26. It would spur rational thought amongst the 20,000 – yes, 20,000! – loons expected to attend.
‘The Business Department should commission them [gas-turbine power-stations] for stand by and back up power for when renewables fail.’ I agree. And solidly right-wing me would want those reserve power-stations firmly under the control of the state.
October 17, 2021
You’re full of contradictions aren’t you?
Have you ever considered that in the broader world view your ideology simply does not stack up?
October 17, 2021
Sea Warrior was a Commander of a Royal Navy ship so not an idiot.
I hope there are power cuts too. The sooner this unilateral idiocy hits (the harder the better) the quicker our people will realise the true cost of *unilateral* net zero for which Boris has presented us a menu with no prices on it.
October 17, 2021
You are now demanding huge increases in gas storage NHL
Without even one power cut.
Hilarious.
October 17, 2021
Your arguement is compelling and it gels with that of many others, but we are all playing outside the tent. I have yet to be convinced, despite the reality of Brexit, that the Treasury have moved on from EU think. Nor do I have any idea what Rishi Sunak’s financial thinking is. Is he atuned to the Boris rhetoric or is he captive of the mandarins at the Treasury. I will judge him on the end of month budget.
October 17, 2021
The latest Consolidated Fund Accounts for 2020/21, show the magic money tree supplied Ā£371.8 billion in the Covid year. (Page 3, deficit funding from the NLF).
The Contingencies Fund Account also supplied Ā£210 billion. Strangely, the Contingencies Fund states that it “does not receive any income, nor does it incur any expenditure. Accordingly, no Statement of Comprehensive Net Expenditure is presented.” Yet, by magic, Ā£210 billion in cash manages to flow through it without touching the sides! Smoke and mirrors that proves you can fool all the people all the time.
October 17, 2021
None of this has anything to do with the event that cannot be named, certainly not by the by the ‘Brā¦it’ Broadcasting Company ( ssshhhhhh! )
There was once a time we did not need a āfood supplies ministerā or a Secretary of State for ‘Exiting the European Union’, or as long whiney ‘Not my fault’ as N. Ireland descends into disaster .Seemed oddly ok prior to the āevent’ we cannot hold responsible ā¦( Its the European Unions fault, work that out ! Yup, this is the same protocol, previously known as oven ready and perfick. Donāt mention Turkeys, or pigs, or flowers, or fashion, or Passporting and above all ā¦ āThe unmentionableā.
Britain is further below pre-pandemic levels than any other G-7 economy nothing to do with, āthe thingā . Financial Services are leaving, but don`t blame ‘it’. HGV drivers leave and we have a shortage. Must be coincidence, nothing to do with ā¦’cough cough’
Sir John feels recession is a more urgent risk than Inflation. Itās a politically expedient judgement for him, but I agree. Similarly someone who tells children to be careful when playing by the Motorway is a seer .Anyone who mutters ‘Better not go there in the first place !’ ā¦.is backward looking, hates āThe B wordā is eaten up with bitterness and unable to be reasonable.
Genius.
October 17, 2021
It is likely to be a grim winter. It is difficult to know which will be worse. The epic failure of the Tory pensioners on Brexit. Or the epic failure of the Tory pensioners on COVID.
The irony being that the people whoāll be hardest hit by both will be pensioners – who are most likely to vote Tory. I guess you reap what you sow.
October 17, 2021
At least voting Tory keeps people who think like you away from power.
Every cloud…
October 18, 2021
Us pensioners will not be hardest hit – unless all cruises and flights to the sun are cancelled.
As you keep alleging, we are having riotous fun at your expense. Keep paying your taxes.
October 17, 2021
Sadly, I suspect this will fall on deaf ears – if those ears are even hearing any of this.
The Treasury seems to be a beast out of political control, with a flawed agenda of its own led by a novice whom they have captured.
I expect nothing good from the upcoming Budget. This government is neither socially nor fiscally conservative. I expect to be voting for Reform UK at the next election.
October 17, 2021
The Treasury is just a part of government.
October 17, 2021
SJR: You say the Treasury needs to ‘slim Test and Trace’. Very much agree, except I’d say ‘end’ not ‘slim’. I feel Astra Zeneca, Deloitte, Serco, Sodexo and the other usual suspects with their snouts in the public trough have made quite enough money already. I was pleased to see you don’t use Johnson’s deceptive term ‘NHS Test and Trace’. The NHS is getting very little of the funding and does not run the scheme. If allowed to, it can certainly make good front-line use of extra funding, to meet the Conservative 2019 general election manifesto pledge of 50,000 more nurses in the English workforce by 2024.
October 17, 2021
‘It is hard to fathom why’ you say Sir John.
Yes. Isn’t it always hard to fathom why the Civil Service do/recommend what they do?
‘The Treasury’ presumably means the Civil Servants. They may indeed be aiming to damage the economy in order to prove their faulty forecasts right! You may inadvertently have implied that!
Whatever, you are right as usual about how the Chancellor should NOT seek to cut spending and raise taxes to slow the economy.
The economy must grow. It must grow in the right ways.
It won’t do that with no electricity in the Grid. So you are right in what you say there. Sneak that through when your idiot leader and his wife are living it up in Glasgow!
As for the NHS. It is quite simply not fit for purpose at present. Better control over how all that money is allocated is one reasonable suggestion there too I suppose. I’d say abolish test and trace. It has been discredited in many ways and is just one way in which the global pharmaceutical companies have been laughing all the way to the bank.
October 17, 2021
They’re not listening, John. Or if they are, they determined to continue on the same destructive path.
October 17, 2021
If you want to see the data that the next budget will be based on have a look at https://obr.uk/download/public-finances-databank-september-2021/ .
Before the OBR was invented by Osborne, the Treasury used to do these calculation itself. That left the Chancellor exposed in the media with nobody to shift the blame to when things go tits-up. Hence, the invention of the OBR. Every Cabinet Minister has to have a selection of “whipping dog” Quango to take the blame as and when required.
October 17, 2021
Data and decisions are very different things. An independent body to back up your data does not give political cover to decisions taken by Cabinet.
October 18, 2021
Acorn
QUANGO’s are primarily used by political parties to give jobs to their friends. Admittedly the secondary role is to provide a firewall. Naturally I want all QUANGO’s wound up. Very few provide a real service and are in fact a drag on the economy.
October 17, 2021
“The HGV driver shortage will take a bit longer to clear, but training and recruitment numbers are rising. ”
That reminds me. What happened to the “hundred thousand missing drivers”? Did they ever show up, or did the “crisis” resolve itself without them. Will we go on talking as if we really were 100,000 drivers short and the problem magically got solved, like all the other fake Remainer crises that are screaming headlines for a week and then quietly get dropped?
How long will we go on passively accepting Remainer lies and then allowing them to quietly ditch whatever issue they were claiming would be the end of us and move on to their next hoax? Are we finally going to stop taking Remainers seriously and realize that they just enjoy making trouble for the rest of us?
October 17, 2021
I am not sure that the Treasury is quite the problem you paint. The Budget is a target, it is not set in stone. If the chancellor takes a pessimistic view at present and then tax receipts come in over expectations he can ease up a little. Same story if growth falls short and looks like it could use a boost from the Treasury. It would be much more difficult to commit to extra spending now and then try to get it back from the various departments if tax revenue comes in short or the economy takes off.
How do we run our own budgets? Don’t we usually keep a bit back?
October 18, 2021
The problem is expenditure. Ministers and Parliament are not doing a good job of keeping costs under control. A classic example, and one often cited here, is HS2. There should have been a fixed budget and not a penny more. Once the money was spent that should have been that. But like all grand political projects it just has to be kept going, not for any good reason, but because it would be too politically embarrassing to stop it after so much money has been spent.
October 17, 2021
Sir JR
It might be an idea to give some practical examples of what needs to be done, as oppose to just telling the Treasure what they should be doing?
October 17, 2021
Do you not read Sir John’s post every day hans?
October 17, 2021
The Treasury issued its preliminary GDP report yesterday. If these were normal times it would be a stunning success story, but of course this report is all about recovery, not new growth. Interestingly, the word Covid appears in every second paragraph, and the word Brexit does not appear at all in a pretty long document.
It’s worth a read, if only to see how fast things can bounce back once lock-downs go away.
October 17, 2021
All common sense but Boris & Co. don’t want to listen and won’t listen to anything that is in opposition to their globalist inspired plans. Our country is being sacrificed to an agenda of propaganda and outright lies.
October 17, 2021
In an interesting development, the UK firm Xlinks has launched its Morocco-UK renewable energy plan, which will generate 10.5 GW of electricity using solar and wind. The Morocco-UK Power Project, in the southern Guelmim-Oued Noun region, will cover around 1,500 km2. The plan includes a 20 GWh/5 GW energy storage system.
Xlinks Chairman Sir Dave Lewis (recently head at Tesco) and CEO Simon Morris have obtained Ā£80m City funding, which has been used to buy the land and obtain Morroco government permits/approvals etc. The project will require four cables (each 3,800km long) making up twin 1.8GW HVDC subsea cables that will transport the electricity from the Moroccan site to the UK. Xlinks will create a cable manufacturing business in the UK to make the cables. This will provide around 1,350 new green jobs by 2024.
Agreement has been reached with National Grid for two 1.8GW connections at Alverdiscott in Devon. Completion of this project will enable Xlinks to secure high value balancing contracts with National Grid, and a HVDC technical feasibility study has been completed to validate reliability and cost. The Xlinks Morocco-UK Power Project will provide renewable energy that effectively acts like baseload
https://xlinks.co/morocco-uk-power-project/
Further details can be found on the “Just Have A Think” YouTube channel
October 17, 2021
”…. needs to slim test and trace…”? Really? Why not ”needs to get rid of it completely now that the ’emergency’ is over and redirect the money”? Doctors should simply treat people who become sick. That’s it.
(Or is that idea too revolutionary?)
October 17, 2021
You can tell Priti that banning anonymous accounts on the web is a non starter. We can always just setup a website in some dodgy jurisdiction if we have to.
What she should be fighting for is proper free speech laws, abolish super injunctions, abolish compromise agreements, stop threats of use of official secrets act when people are just embarrassing crap public sector management and not really revealing anything of use to a potential enemy. Protect school teachers who are having their lives threatened by Islamic extremists. Et blooming cetera.
October 17, 2021
JR , you are pi**ing in the wind with your comments just like the windmills and their so called contribution to the grid. Nobody in control is listening because the Globalist UK Establishment are rapidly pushing the NWO agenda. Surely you are aware !!! !!!! However, they are running out of time as nothing can stop what is coming, Nothing.
October 17, 2021
I see that a futile attempt is under way to convince us to switch to heat pumps by giving a Ā£5,000 grant for each insulation. The amount on offer is laughable and the systems are a joke.
Even larger British homes don’t have enough ground area to lay the amount of pipework needed for a ground-source heat pump. Those that do, face having their whole garden and expensive patio dug up for the pipework and then will have to accept a noisy and ugly unit in the garden and that is not the end of it.
Everyone else will have to have the far less efficient air-source heat pump, as long as they have the room to hang an ugly airconditioning sized unit on the back wall.
Inside, every house to be fitted with a heat pump of either type will have to have the concrete floors chunked up or floorboards lifted in every room to fit the larger heating pipes. Smaller homes will not have the wall space to fit radiators at least 50% larger than the existing ones.
The cost and immense disturbance is not something that existing householders will be prepared to put up with, especially as the new heating system will cost a lot more to run and will almost certainly not keep the occupants warm enough in the depth of the winter, no matter how much insulation can be fitted in.
The grant would need to be at least Ā£15,000-Ā£25,000 to cover the overall difference in cost between a heat pump and a replacement boiler.
October 18, 2021
Sir John
Thank you for pressing on in what must be a harrowing time for you.
Something has been really bugging me over the last few days and I couldn’t quite put a finger on it but now I know what it is.
Labour, the Left, the BBC and the general media are getting away Scot free here. They are allowed to push the narrative that the toxicity in politics must end – drawing low equivalence between Tory and Labour politicians as though Tory politicians are calling Labour politicians ‘scum’ and such like and that this is a problem on both sides of the house.
This is patently untrue – incitement of hatred from the Tories towards Labour has never happened.
Anonymous right wing internet trolls may be doing so but never a Tory politician. There is a world of difference between an anonymous troll inciting hatred and a senior politician. Not only did Ms Rayner call Tory MPs ‘scum’ she said that they were racists and sexists too. I can’t say if this had any bearing on the terrible incident of last week but let’s not pretend that toxicity in politics is “they’re all as bad as each other” because they certainly aren’t as bad as each other. Toxicity is definitely a characteristic of the Left – it’s an official tactic to dehumanise the opposition and union officials even wear Tory Scum badges with pride.
I feel that it’s no wonder that the silent majority go undefended if the Tories are unable to even defend themselves. Etc ed
Fast food restaurants are often fortified like banks used to be, police officers have to dress like Robo-Cops and MPs are now reviewing the need police escorts and bouncers or even a withdrawal from public interface to some degree. By what measure is that a success ?
October 18, 2021
May I add the strong suggestion that the government should be planning energetically for the approaching trade war the EU is going to launch against us, once a bellicose France has managed to persuade them to do so. Either their confected fishing dispute or – should Lord Frost not be able to persuade them that their goalie cannot double as a referee – our perfectly legal triggering of Article 16 of the NIP (combined with their continued ignoring of Article 13 ) will suffice them as an excuse to block the French coastal ports and exert their maximum non-cooperation in the import/export trade – however illegal such barriers to trade would be in international law. In the long term such plain aggression would be a blessing for the UK, as it will force us 1) away from the French cross-channel model and 2) onto WTO trading terms. We could even institute UTF trading as a nation, which would benefit the world as well as ourselves. Yet we must act with vigour, to combat the glacial sluggishness with which large UK corporates (many of them still road-blocking remainers) respond to any new conditions affecting supply chains. Your government should be preparing them for the necessary diversification to other markets they will need, and our non-EU treaties need to be ratcheted up.
Please, please, let this not be one more thing – alongside the swingeing rise in energy prices and inability to get the nation back to work – that our fitfully aware PM and WFH civil service is unprepared for this autumn/winter.
October 19, 2021
Brilliant John !
Increasing interest rates is a terrible idea