Good and bad trade deals

To the BBC and Remain critics a free trade deal with the EU was essential to our economy, whilst a free trade deal with anyone else is a big threat to Ā our own farms and industries, allowing foreign competitors more of a chance to lift ordersĀ  from us.

They never see the contradictory nature of their twin positions. Apparently New Zealand lamb could drive our sheep farmers out of business. No such damage they say is being done by the EU.Ā  They ignore the way German cars, French dairy, Italian textiles, continental steel and others drove many of our companies out of businessĀ  when we went to zero tariffs with the ECEC on Ā joining , let alone the damage the CAP did to farming and the Common Fishing policy did our fishing grounds and industry.

The truth is we rely for our substantial foreign trade on WTO membership which secures most of it with or without top up trade deals. A top up trade deal can be helpful overall, but of course it only helps our business where we are competitive and harms it where we are not. We have a massive deficit with the EU thanks to the asymmetric Ā way tariffs and barriers were taken off industry where they had an advantage, but kept barriers on serviceĀ  where we had an advantage.

The other criticism they advance of a deal like the New Zealand one is our trade is relatively small.Ā  This of course contradicts the other criticism that it is seriously harmful. The NZ deal cements Ā a friendly alliance that matters, but it is also progress to joining the TPP which is large Asian trading area of faster growing economies which we can do more with.

The absurd argument that we have swapped a great deal with the EU for one with smaller counties is silly. We have a tariff free deal and WTO access to all EU markets, no we are adding a bit better deal with places like NZ and Australia, preparatory to joining TPP which the USA may well also join.

Brexit supporters always had a sense of perspective over trade deals, knowing the key was WTO membership for trade access. We left to run our own affairs generally. Membership of the EU single market did considerable damage to industry, agriculture and fishing owing to the asymmetry in its rules. They could fish our waters, for example, but we didn’t get rights to Mediterranean fish.

183 Comments

  1. Mark B
    October 22, 2021

    Good morning.

    The absurd argument that we have swapped a great deal with the EU for one with smaller counties is silly.

    Yes the great trading powers that are Malta, Greece, Slovakia and Slovenia, to name but a few. Soon to be joined by Albania. Oh my God what have we done ?!?!?!

    /sarc

    I do not care about trading deals. What I care about is good governance and the ability for those we elect to act for and on our behalf and in our best interests, and not as 1/28th of one vote ! Sadly I am not seeing much signs of that but, at least we now they cannot blame someone else.

    And it was OUR politicians that gave away OUR fishing grounds. It was the price THEY were prepared to pay for membership and to secure another PM’s legacy. Today we have another egomaniac trying to forster another legacy upon us for which we will again pay.

    1. Nota#
      October 22, 2021

      @Mark B +1 yes it is our political class/elite that has constantly sold the UK short. Given the resources required/needed for our safety and security away without reciprocity. 40 years the rule taker and left clueless going forward

    2. Hope
      October 22, 2021

      Mark,

      Those who wish to work and live in London dealt another economic blow for eco lunacy as the congestion extended! Tax, tax, tax.

      I am not sure your past tense position on fishing is correct, Tories sold out fishing to join and again to leave!! To make sure it suffered for eternity it was linked to electric supplied by France! What idiot would do that?

      Johnson thinks lying to say he has brexit done or taken back control is for the birds. Theoretical at best. Who pays EU Ā£11 billion after we left what for, what deal?, And then taxes The nation through NIC to gain Ā£12 billion? Johnson!

    3. Nottingham Lad Himself
      October 22, 2021

      Sir John’s piece today is too silly to warrant a detailed direct comment, I’d say.

      1. Peter2
        October 22, 2021

        Every cloud…

      2. Richard1
        October 22, 2021

        What you mean is you canā€™t think of a coherent argument to make against it.

  2. Peter Wood
    October 22, 2021

    Good Morning,

    One has to admire, and perhaps envy, the way the Polish PM is handling the EU. Let’s hope they stick to their declared principle of constitutional law and courts being superior to EU ‘law’ and ‘court’.

    I beleive they have a strong hand; the EU could not survive a Polexit. As a writer said yesterday, to lose one senior member is unfurtunate, to lose another etc…. Poland is in a stronger position than we were under Cameron. The EU simply didn’t believe we’d vote to leave their precious club. Now they know it can happen, they’re terrified it could again. More power the the Poles in this regard. We should encourage them to smell the fresh air of freedom.

    1. Narrow Shoulders
      October 22, 2021

      @Peter Wood

      Viewing from afar I do not think the government has the support of the majority. The Poles have bought into the EU raising their living standard with free movement and subsidy so I am not sure the government would win a referendum to leave. The government has also stated that it does not wish to leave.

      One big difference with the UK is if Poland does leave by whatever mechanism I think they will not be hampered in their exit dealings by cabals working against their interest within Poland.

      1. jerry
        October 23, 2021

        @NS; Your last paragraph is more in hope I suspect, yes the current govt is standing up to the EU, perhaps even ‘Polexit’ in hope, but most post 1990 govts have been very Europhile, more chance of Poland changing their domestic govt than leaving the EU.

    2. Dave Andrews
      October 22, 2021

      There won’t be a Polexit. The Commission can’t expel a member and the Poles don’t want to leave. Poland will just continue as a weeping sore in the Project. The Commission might be able to levy financial sanctions and if Poland follows suit they will be a little worse off because they are net beneficiaries.

    3. formula57
      October 22, 2021

      We should certainly support Poland, although the Poles will perhaps this time forgive us if we do so less to help them and more to help stop a rampaging fascistic bully.

    4. jerry
      October 22, 2021

      @Peter Woods; Perhaps, meanwhile Russia looks on…

    5. Denis Cooper
      October 22, 2021

      It is worth reading “Excerpts from his legal bombshells” here:

      https://facts4eu.org/news/2021_oct_poles_apart_2

      1. formula57
        October 22, 2021

        @ Denis Cooper – thanks, interesting and rather surprising quotes on the interpretation of constitutions – although Mr Morawiecki reminds me of poor old Varoufakis at the Eurogroup during the time he thought he was finance minister of Greece.

    6. Andy
      October 22, 2021

      Nobody else is leaving the EU. If any other country had been tempted they saw what an absolute mess Brexitists made of it and nobody wants to repeat it. Since Brexit support for the EU has risen greatly across the EU – and in the U.K. too – particularly considering the overwhelming success of the EUā€™s vaccine programme.

      That said Poland, and Hungary, are increasingly lawless. Extreme governments riding roughshod over the majority – just like in the U.K. I think the EU should make an example of them and expel them.

    7. SM
      October 22, 2021

      Poland is apparently the biggest net beneficiary of EU funding – how easy would they find it to just walk away?

    8. Nottingham Lad Himself
      October 22, 2021

      They shouldn’t have agreed a binding international treaty to say otherwise then, should they?

      But I forget, you don’t consider anything to be binding. Just don’t bleat when your mortgagee decides not to honour their previous agreement to let you occupy their property then.

      The European Union would actually benefit from getting rid of Poland and Hungary, and the sentiment is growing to do just that.

    9. bigneil - newer comp
      October 22, 2021

      “Stronger” position than under Cameron ? He was selling this island – and us – to the EU. He wanted a seat at the top EU table -( just like BJ and PP ). Then he walked away when he lost the vote. John’s mate – but personally – – i’d never trust him. Just like BJ and his pals destroying us RIGHT NOW.

    10. Peter
      October 22, 2021

      Yes, fair play to the Poles, Orbanā€™s Hungary and like minded visegrad nations.

      However, Poland are currently financial beneficiaries with EU membership, so they have something to lose – unlike the UK. That said, they do make a very good case for independence for nation states.

      1. Nottingham Lad Himself
        October 23, 2021

        If you believe that violating a solemn, binding treaty – that you completely freely and voluntarily agreed – makes a good case for anything, then that says plenty about you, I think.

        1. Peter2
          October 23, 2021

          Interpretation of the hundreds of pages of the treaty.
          That’s the problem.

          1. Margaret Brandreth-
            October 24, 2021

            Peter, 10 people can read the same paragraph and depending upon prior knowledge, language ability, linguistics as opposed to a basic functioning language , context and perceptual abilities, it’s meaning will be slightly different to all.How words refer and defer from each other make up a treaty that no one population would see in the same way. There would at best be, when agreeing to a treaty, a feeling of losing out on power in the world with no one able to save our own heritage and paradoxically , joint identity.

    11. jon livesey
      October 22, 2021

      Don’t forget that there is one big difference between the UK and Poland. We were a net contributor to the EU budget, to the tune of about ten billion a year, but Poland is the single biggest net recipient from the EU. In fact Poland receives about two thirds of what Germany now contributes.

      So the financial dynamics of a Polexit are quite different to those of Brexit. Brexit left the EU with a hole in their budget, hence the nastiness, but Polexit would leave Poland much worse off and Germany and France better off.

      1. Micky Taking
        October 23, 2021

        Buty the reality of life and Poland’s future in the EU has removed economic progress and encouraged the people to start elsewhere, here in UK for instance. I’ve come across several Poles all fine people who are friendly, wish to work and have a life with prospects outside the EU.

  3. Shirley M
    October 22, 2021

    The NFU lose public trust when they accept heavily subsidised EU food but criticise NZ food that has received no subsidies whatsoever and has to be transported long distances. Are they representing UK farmers, or EU farmers? If I were a farmer that is the question I would be asking!

    1. jerry
      October 22, 2021

      @Shirley M; The NFU appears to represent wealthy UK land owners, not necessarily UK farmers, nor even EU farmers as you quip.

      1. jon livesey
        October 22, 2021

        That’s nonsense. It’s farmers who receive subsidy payments and farmers that are members of the NFU.

        1. jerry
          October 23, 2021

          @Jon livesey; I guess my irony escaped you! There are many ‘gentlemen’ farmers who merely own the land, take payments on that land, some I doubt would even know how to drive a tractor never mind milk a cow or herd sheep! There are “Farmers” and there are farmers….

    2. glen cullen
      October 22, 2021

      When growing up our bacon was always Danish and our lamb always New Zealandā€¦.it was never a problem until the changeover from EEC to EU and the centrally planned common agricultural policy

    3. Hope
      October 22, 2021

      Remember the food, grain and butter mountains in the 80ā€™s Shirley at every Empty British Leyland warehouse! EU decimated dairy farming by making it unprofitable with cheap EU products including from R. Ireland. People need to boycott dairy products from R. Ireland.

      1. Hope
        October 22, 2021

        When can we expect an overhaul of VAT now we have left the EU JR?

    4. bigneil - newer comp
      October 22, 2021

      wSM – – There’ll be NO farms soon – the 3rd world ALL want a FREE life here – with you lot paying (i’ll be history ) – an island CANNOT have millions more people AND farms.

  4. Everhopeful
    October 22, 2021

    Surely there are perks for all those who support the EU?
    Apparently U.K. charities still get EU fundingā€¦so who are they going to be rooting for?

    Didnā€™t we used to get loads of lamb from NZ? Iā€™m certain our farmers were in a much better state back thenā€¦ie free of E.U. destructive interference.

    1. Ian Wragg
      October 22, 2021

      But John says as long as we’re competitive but this government is doing all it can to shut down whole industries.
      Yesterday it was a tax on meat and dairy products so it becomes cheaper to import them, that’s how we get to net zero.
      Our industries will pay the highest price for power sending them to the wall.
      Build back better my armpit.

      1. Everhopeful
        October 22, 2021

        +1
        Totally agree.

    2. Al
      October 22, 2021

      “Didnā€™t we used to get loads of lamb from NZ? Iā€™m certain our farmers were in a much better state back thenā€¦ie free of E.U. destructive interference.” – Everhopeful
      I grew up in sheep farming country. Then I saw CAP destroy it, and the reactions of many of my schoolfriends as their fathers went out of business. Ten years later CFP did the same thing to the fishing, and despite a good fight the fishermen lost.

      From someone who was there, New Zealand lamb didn’t cause nearly the damage CAP did.

      1. Everhopeful
        October 22, 2021

        +1
        The whole EU experienceā€¦an utter waste of time and lives and heartbreak.

    3. John Hatfield
      October 22, 2021

      My Welsh daughter who works in the public sector was a big supporter of EU membership because Wales or a body within Wales received an EU subsidy. When I explained she was only getting back some of the money the UK had paid to the EU she was incredulous. EU good UK bad.

      1. Andy
        October 22, 2021

        Did you also explain that – thanks to your Brexit – Wales will get next to nothing at all in future from Westminster because Tories fund their own constituencies and nobody elseā€™s?

        1. Peter2
          October 22, 2021

          Check the amount Wales gets from Westminster andy.
          And remember they voted to leave.

        2. jon livesey
          October 22, 2021

          Twaddle. Wales will get its share of UK tax revenue as usual, just like Scotland and NI. If you knew what you were talking about, you would know that the total EU funding Wales has made such a fuss about was E350m a year. That’s a very small number compared to UK tax revenue that does to Wales.

        3. Mike Wilson
          October 22, 2021

          Tories fund their own constituencies and nobody elseā€™s?

          If only that were true. Half the council tax collected in the Tory shires is sent to the Brexitist wastelands in the Midlands and the North.

      2. Everhopeful
        October 22, 2021

        +1
        100%

        1. Everhopeful
          October 22, 2021

          John Hatfield
          100%

  5. Newmania
    October 22, 2021

    The Kiwi quicky will have virtually no beneficial affect on the UK economy and do little harm. If EEA membership was a Range Rover, New Zealand is a weeny little toy Range Rover such you may be given at the Supermarket free. My boys used to like to collect them then they were little . It was funny to see them playing vrrrrom vrooomn screeeech vrooom… (That is what discussing it as if it was a real thing is …. tragic for an adult )
    The objections of Farmers are to the prospect of cheap global food, the one gain to be had from Brexit. That will drive framers out of business but don`t worry you and I will pay to subsidise them even more than we do already. Lose lose !

    “.kept barriers on service where we had an advantage..’…

    My jaw is dropping ( clunk) ! Someone who doesn`t know there was a single market in services ,has no right to tell us anything about Brexit whatsoever. My pet cat is better informed .
    Would you get into a cab when the driver asked you casually if you knew where the steering wheel was ? Bad luck …you did ….(vrrooom screech …crash)

  6. turboterrier
    October 22, 2021

    Regarding new trade deals:
    Start by doing what is necessary.
    Then do the possible.
    Suddenly you are doing impossible.
    St Francis of Assisi

    The secret of getting ahead is getting started. Mark Twain

    Energy and persistence conquer all things. Benjamin Franklin

    It isn’t what we say or think that defines us, it’s what we do. Jane Austen

    Ihave not failed. I have found a thousand ways that won’t work.
    Thomas Edison
    History shows it has all happened before so nothing is new. What is needed is the special people who can and do apply themselves in the manner of the above. Its not about the talking it’s all about the doing. Time for big changes methinks?

    1. turboterrier
      October 22, 2021

      Sorry should have said:-
      Doing the impossible

  7. Sea_Warrior
    October 22, 2021

    I’ll not be buying any NZ-slaughtered lamb. But I’ll be buying some more NZ wine and hope that our manufacturers are able to sell more goods there. Remainers will disparage the deal, because NZ is ‘tiny’, but the last time I checked, the NZ economy was equal in size to about half a dozen of the EU’s minnows. The key take-away is that it is a demonstration of how quickly the UK is able to conclude deals with its traditional friends.

    1. Leslie Singleton
      October 22, 2021

      Dear Warrior–Very much, Yes, our traditional friends, whom we soundly and gratuitously kicked in the teeth when we stooped so low as to join the wretched agglomeration of mostly our enemies now called the EU. We must have been mad.

    2. Nota#
      October 22, 2021

      @Sea_Warrior – I for one will be buying NZ Lamb, considerable tastier and more tender. I guess (but don’t know) because its smaller

    3. Andy
      October 22, 2021

      Anybody can negotiate a rubbish deal quickly. And it turns out thatā€™s exactly what you Brexitists have done – again.

      Experts in rubbish deals.

      1. Peter2
        October 22, 2021

        First you claimed there would be no deals Andy.
        Now there are loads of deals you are left looking silly as you can only carp about these deals.
        Hilarious

      2. jon livesey
        October 22, 2021

        A deal that reduces tariffs on 95% of goods is “rubbish”? Well, when you consider how protectionist the EU is, perhaps they see it that way. The people whose jobs it creates will not, however.

      3. Sea_Warrior
        October 22, 2021

        Yawn.

    4. jon livesey
      October 22, 2021

      I’m ahead of you. I’ve already bought some NZ wine. I even bought some Cape wine, too.

      1. Micky Taking
        October 23, 2021

        I can vouch for a First Cape merlot, lovely stuff – sold in W……

  8. Everhopeful
    October 22, 2021

    What was the advice/order at the latest glittering bun fight then?
    Lock ā€˜em in againā€¦cover their facesā€¦threaten them with Papiere ā€¦theyā€™ll be begging for a booster!
    Not terribly subtle are they? One could say that the mask was slipping!

    1. BOF
      October 22, 2021

      +1. Thanks for the smile this morning.

      1. Everhopeful
        October 22, 2021

        +1

    2. bigneil - newer comp
      October 22, 2021

      EverH – I cannot stand to even LOOK at BJ and PP. . . . BOTH are treacherous liars selling this nation and country to oblivion. HE says different things day after day to anyone – – SHE – promised “to stop the illegals” – -and is importing more and more – – and putting them all on a permanent holiday !!!!!!!!!

      1. Everhopeful
        October 22, 2021

        +1
        Could not agree more!

    3. Everhopeful
      October 22, 2021

      Not to mention the ā€œOnline Harmsā€ Legislation which they are determined to push through at any price, disgracefully making use of a tragedy to do so.
      And the fearless nightclub starā€¦oh so terrified in the street!
      But then, judging by the appalling display in the Commons re Plague Law ā€¦what can we expect?
      I suppose the government realises that in supporting the Harms rot they are siding with every (other) totalitarian regimeā€¦the sort they would have at one time gone to war with to impose democracy (haha!).
      No thought now for Freedom Fighters or dissidents!

      If someone wants to be a doctor or an MP then they have to meet people. Or do the job for Ā£30k ?Just maybe drop the dangerous political correctness and everyone would be safer.

  9. Sakara Gold
    October 22, 2021

    Off topic
    In a highly disturbing (for beekeepers) development, the National Bee Unit has reported that a 35cm wide Asian hornet nest was found and destroyed in the Ascot area of Berkshire on Monday 11th October.

    This is very late in the season and it is apparently possible (probable?) that 200-300 mated Asian hornet queens are at large in the area looking for places to hibernate

    https://www.nationalbeeunit.com/public/News/news.cfm#290

    If anyone has seen any of these large and dangerous insects, the sighting should be reported to the NBU preferably with a photograph or even better a specimen.

  10. Narrow Shoulders
    October 22, 2021

    Sir John – I do wonder what is in this for us? What do we have that New Zealand wants other than professionals to emigrate to a better life.

    I am more interested in our efforts to become self sufficient than means to bring more unwanted merchandise into this country.

  11. agricola
    October 22, 2021

    Like Flat Earthers, remainers will never accept the result of the referendum or our subsequent departure. They are best ignored, there are more pressing problems.

  12. matthu
    October 22, 2021

    But why do these so-called trade deals also involve other woke-niceties that have nothing to do with trade?

    For example, why should the UK-NZ trade deal include provisions for banning anyone from doing the haka if you are not a Maori? I did not realise this was even an issue in the UK. So at whose instigation would this particular provision have been included in a trade deal?

    Why would it be appropriate to include such a provision in a trade deal if it is only really relevant for one of the parties?

    1. matthu
      October 22, 2021

      (Did the UK-NZ deal contain any provisions for protecting Morris-dancers? If not, why not?)

    2. Mike Wilson
      October 22, 2021

      I and my wife face off every morning. She does the Haka and I look away as, to be honest, it is a disturbing and frightening sight. I am grateful that it is to be outlawed. Now, perhaps, we can go back to her exhorting me to wrestle her. As she has a significant weight advantage, I refuse her entreaties to get me in a ā€˜Boston Crabā€™.

      1. Micky Taking
        October 23, 2021

        Ever considered taking a Youtube channel? You could make a fortune live transmitting – I’d pay to watch.

      2. Nottingham Lad Himself
        October 23, 2021

        Thanks Mike – all is not lost.

  13. Len Peel
    October 22, 2021

    And here we go again! Over 5 years on from the referendum you won, and STILL your only tune is whiny victimhood. Brexitā€™s a catastrophe but youā€™ll always find someone else to blame

    1. Peter2
      October 22, 2021

      We didn’t leave 5 years ago Len.
      Come on, get it right.

  14. Donna
    October 22, 2021

    It would have been better to leave on a WTO (No Deal) basis that the deal Johnson stitched up with the EU, which has caused huge problems in Northern Ireland and has allowed Macron to threaten retaliation for a slightly restricted right for French Fishermen to plunder our territorial waters.

    The solution to the EU’s tantrums is, and always has been, in our own hands. Don’t buy EU products and don’t holiday in EU-land.

    1. Nottingham Lad Himself
      October 23, 2021

      No, please don’t go there, Donna.

      I find it a very pleasant place.

  15. GilesB
    October 22, 2021

    What benefit do we get from the Trade deal with the EU?

    Yes, there is slightly less paperwork with no customs duties to pay on exports, but all the other umpteen EU forms are still required on exports and imports.

    Most exporters to EU (except those in Northern Ireland doing trade over the border, but thatā€™s a special case) are shipping all over the world and are well set-up to complete customs declarations.

    The customs duties paid on exports to the EU would be a fraction of the custom duties that would be received on imports from the EU, because of the imbalance in trade of goods, when the same tariffs are applied in each direction. The U.K. would gain substantially.

    I would expect scrapping the trade deal to appeal particularly to the Chancellor as the export duties would be paid by a myriad of companies, and hence their customers, whereas the import duties would be received directly by the Government.

    1. Denis Cooper
      October 22, 2021

      The EU estimate is on page 21 here:

      https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/economy-finance/ip144_en_1.pdf

      ā€œFor the EU on average, the exit of the UK from the European Union on FTA terms is estimated to generate an output loss of around Ā½ % of GDP by the end of 2022, and some 2 Ā¼ % point for the UK. Compared to the ā€˜WTO assumptionā€™ that was modelled in the Autumn forecast, the EU-UK FTA reduces this negative impact for the EU on average by about 1/3 and for the UK by about 1/4. Whereas the FTA sets tariffs and quotas on goods at zero, there is a significant increase in NTBs for both goods and services. Member States with a higher share of goods trade with the UK therefore benefit relatively speaking more from the FTA than those with a higher share of trade in services. In sum, while the FTA improves the situation as compared to an outcome with no trade agreement between the EU and the UK, it cannot come close to matching the benefits of the trading relations provided by EU membership.ā€

      Therefore the benefit to the UK of the free trade agreement, FTA, would be 2.25% of GDP divided by 3 = 0.75% of GDP.

      On the EU’s model, for what it is worth, leaving on basic WTO terms without a special FTA would have cost the UK 3.00% of GDP in the long term, but the FTA will retrieve one quarter of that, 0.75% of GDP, equivalent to Ā£16 billion a year.

  16. agricola
    October 22, 2021

    Off topic, it is reported that Brits in Spain have been given till the end of October to change their UK driving licences to Spanish ones. It was always the rule that if you lived in Spain for more than six months this was a legal requirement. It is possibly the same for Spaniards living in the UK. car registration also has to be changed.

    Problem is that too many Brits try to live in the grey world between the two jurisdictions and have been getting away with it for far too long. They have no complaint if they have been caught up with.

    On a lighter note, many years ago when I changed my licence it took over six months to do. I asked my lawyer why it took six months to effect a driving licence change but only fourteen days to change a pilots licence. She smiled and said you don’t understand Spain, drivers are nothing , but pilots are gods.

  17. alan jutson
    October 22, 2021

    Your post today is a simple explanation, to a simple set of problems outlined by people who simply dislike the fact that we have had the temerity to leave the EU.
    They are supporters of the artificially protected European State in the big wide World.

    Time will tell who is right, but we need a government who can grasp the new opportunity

  18. Mike Wilson
    October 22, 2021

    It is a shame our polio are so obsessed with international trade.

    Buy British! Keep the jobs and money here. It is utterly absurd to run a constant balance of payments deficit and, in environmental terms, bonkers to buy goods from countries that burn coal to power their industries and diesel to transport them around the world.

    1. Mike Wilson
      October 22, 2021

      Our politicians- not ā€˜our polioā€™.

    2. agricola
      October 22, 2021

      Sadly we Brits don’t make Cloudy Bay and the Kiwis don’t make Gordons Gin so we have a basis for trade to lift the spirit of both countries. With a bit of shrewd marketing we have the opportunity to sell them our very best lamb. Go to it.

  19. Mike Wilson
    October 22, 2021

    I see St. Greta of Thunberg pointed out yesterday that our proclaimed CO2 reduction of 48% is, in fact, only 15% when you take into account the fact we have outsourced CO2 production to the countries like China that we import goods from. And Germany of course. Still burning coal to make the cars you are all so fond of.

    1. Micky Taking
      October 22, 2021

      But importing from both countries has really fallen.

  20. Lifelogic
    October 22, 2021

    You say of the BBC “They never see the contradictory nature of their twin positions”.

    They never see the absurdity of all their idiotic positions they are wrong on almost every issue. On net zero, on open door immigration, on the effectively state monopoly and unfair competition at the NHS, Schools, Universities, the BBC itself, housing, transport… Nor on the economy, the EU, energy production, Biden…

    But Boris could sort the appalling BBC out but he chooses not to. On PM yesterday they had six members of the public asking how the government should spend Ā£10 or should they give it back in tax cuts. Not one of these people gave tax cuts or realised that people spend or invest their own money much more efficiently than government. Also that tax cuts (from the very over taxed current position) produce more incentives to work & invest and thus a stronger economy. I assume they only selected lefty, BBC think, dopes?

    Talking about the absurd government “plan” for net zero we had dim art grad BBC interviewers interviewing dim, ignorant, art grad politicians (neither had a clue about engineering or economic realities of heating systems or CO2 realities) then they had Ed Miliband (PPE Oxon) saying the plan did not go anything like far enough. Then we get “vested interest” heat pump business leaders (hoping to profit from the government grants and new laws forcing people to piss money down the drain on heat pumps). Needless to say telling it is just great and prices will fall… If they are great people will buy them without grants or laws forcing them to.

    No comment at all from anyone sensible, informed, bright, suitably qualified and independent to be seen.

  21. Nota#
    October 22, 2021

    Before the invention and sub-coming to EU rule we always had NZ Lamb on our plates. Simple really, ‘lamb’ is seasonal and the 2 countries are in different cycles, when one was available the other wasn’t.

    Sir John – you forgot the EU Fishing Policy – it forced the UK Fishermen to decommission their boats and hand over theirs and UK territories to EU Fishing Boats that were by and large unaffected. Now the EU is coming back to us suggesting historical rights after just 40years of their rule, forgetting the previous hundreds of years. There isn’t even any balanced trade, the EU Fishing Boats are massive factory ships scooping up everything and denying a living to the ‘day boats’. The EU Fleets are massive and considerable out number UK owned fleet. The EU fisherman have plundered/destroyed their own fishing waters so now wish to do the same in UK territorial waters. Then to add insult to injury the UK Government permits the EU to plunder UK territory while accepting that the EU is denying the UK exports of fish while its fresh – duplicity.

    The bit I find amusing is the French have by far and away the Worlds largest EEZ (exclusive economic zone). By definition that is an area of the sea in which a sovereign state has special rights regarding the exploration and use of marine resources. Yet the French also have been lead to believe they have the same rights to the UK’s territory. They have destroyed their own zone by mismanagement so the UK stands by while they do the same to ours.

  22. jerry
    October 22, 2021

    Let me say, before responding to some of our hosts remarks in detail, I welcome the FTA with NZ, just as I do those that have already been agreed, just a pity the Republicans in the US did not see fit to ask A.N.Other to be their candidate in Nov. 2020, meaning they would still have their man in the White House (even if winning a majority in the Capitol might have been more of a problem) meaning we would have a good chance of a fair FTA with the USA, not having to (apply to) join another trade group to gain to perhaps gain full access to each others markets.

    1. jerry
      October 22, 2021

      @JR article; “To the BBC…/etc/…”

      YAWN, change the recorded Mr Redwood, or are you seriously trying to suggest neither Sky News nor ITN/Ch4 news do not also report what Brexit opponents say.

      The broadcasters have no “position”, unlike the printed/web-based news media here in the UK and the broadcast media in say the USA [1]. Broadcasters here in the UK have to report both side of the issues so of course those without clue (or those making mischief…) will complain of contradictory reporting!

      [1] the FCC ‘Fairness Doctrine’ was abolished in 1987

      “allowing foreign competitors more of a chance to lift orders from us.”

      But isn’t free-market economics one of the bedrocks of both Thatcherism & Reagainomics?

      “They ignore the way German cars, French dairy, Italian textiles, continental steel and others drove many of our companies out of business when we went to zero tariffs with the ECEC on joining”

      For ECEC read EEC, for EEC read EU (single market), I suspect… Whilst those on the right all to often forget that such countries often carried on subsidising their distressed industries through the difficult post war years, especially the “oil shock” years of the 1970s into the 1980s, heck at least one country (by way of a Federal State within) still owns a substantive share holding in a car company. Here in the UK our govt all to often withdrew support, forcing entire manufacturing plants to close, if not entire industries, after all we could easily buy French and German cars, buy Icelandic Cod, buy cheap electronic and toys from the far east.

      “Membership of the EU single market did considerable damage to [UK] industry, agriculture and fishing”

      Indeed, as many (Powell, Foot, Benn, Heffer et al) warned it would at the time, so why did your then very europhile boss (Thatcher) carry on encouraging the EEC by way of asking a UK civil servant (Cockfield) to write the White Paper that became the bases of the single market. Only after both SEA and Maastricht were signed did you start to complain about the the asymmetry in its rules, what in hells name had you expected?!

      1. Peter2
        October 22, 2021

        Jerry is off on his pro BBC rant again
        Yawn indeed.

        1. Peter2
          October 22, 2021

          And Jerry, free competition is about fair competition.

        2. jerry
          October 23, 2021

          @Peter2; Oh dear, here we go again… I was not defending the BBC, I was merely pointing out they report no differently than any other broadcaster with a UK Ofcom licence should be, in other words for example if GB News is not receiving complaints of contradictory reporting they are in breach of their Ofcom licence (and indeed some, non UK based, broadcasters have had their UK licences revoked). Only those who know nothing about UK regulation, perhaps due to not living in the UK, could ever have come to the conclusions “Peter2” came to.

          As for free trade and fair competition, so why do so many Brexiteers seemingly want anything but free and fair trade post Brexit? But again Peter’s knees jerked without understanding my actual point, the UK civil service with full govt approval all but wrote the rules for the EU’s single market (something our host seems screamish about, he never mentions the fact himself), so if the single market was unfair to the UK, opened the door to greater political integration etc, handed the Federalists their wildest dream, whose fault was it! But of course it was not SEA Thatcher and her supporters disagreed with but the Delors commission thinking that would later become known as the Maastricht Treaty, especially its social chapter and monitory union policies, hence her Bruges speech and later comments at the HoC despatch box.

          Did no one within the Conservative party, 1975-90 ever read the Treaty of Rome, I assume not if they thought the EEC was only ever about trade, that they could get free/fair trade within the block without also accepting social, political and economic union. By comparison Heath was very clear, in a Panorama interview filmed in Jan 1972, that our membership of the EEC would bring such changes.

          Reply Yes I read the Treaty of Rome before deciding to vote against staying in the EEC in 1975. The single market was not designed by UK officials. I was Single Market Minister in the hectic legislative run up to the full launch in 1992 and spent most of my time trying to stop or water down needless regulations usually designed with helping our continental competitors in mind.

          1. Peter2
            October 23, 2021

            Gosh what an essay Jerry.
            Perhaps it touched a nerve, as you often say yourself.

          2. jerry
            October 23, 2021

            @JR reply; Nice try at switching focus… I wasn’t talking about Minsters but UK civil servants, or people appointed in such capacity to represent the UK, supposedly answerable to the elected UK govt. That is what Lord Cockfield role was from late 1984, having resigning from the UK govt cabinet to take up his new post, nominated by the Thatcher govt to be the UK’s commissioner to the EC, holding responsibility for the Internal Market, Tax Law and Customs, who went on to write the blue print for the Single Market as set out in Single European Act.

            If Mrs Thatcher, her govt her, were truly against SEA, as you seem to be suggesting why did it take almost three years for her to speak up?

            The Single European Act was signed in 1986, effective from July 1987, and as you well know Mrs Thatcher did not make her Bruges speech until 20 Sept. 1988, yet in a speech made 18 April 1988 (at Lancaster House) Mrs Thatcher she sounds in full support of SEA and the Single market, so what changed between April and late September, Jacques Delors making a speech, defending trade union rights, to the TUC perhaps, hence Thatchers comments within her Bruges speech 12 days later;

            “We have not successfully rolled back the frontiers of the state in Britain, only to see them re-imposed at a European level with a European super-state exercising a new dominance from Brussels.”

            Mrs Thatcher was clearly responding to Delors speech, almost certainly his wish to protect trade unions and workers rights t the EC level. It was not the Single European Act she was objecting to, she could have done that three years before, by refusing to sign!

            If SEA was about fair competition across the EEC/EU there was only ever going to be one of two outcomes for European trade unionism, the European model or the (by then Thatcher) British model… Also, when as Minister for Corporate Affairs (I assume), would it not have been the Maastricht Treaty concentrating yours and other ministerial minds, given that Treat came to be signed in early 1992, not a Treaty that had been effective since mid 1987.

            The real damage was was SEA, all that followed has simply built upon those foundations…

            Reply I recommended Margaret did not sign the SEA but she was told by others it was a harmless free market measure which it never was. She came to regret the SEA as it was

  23. Roy Grainger
    October 22, 2021

    One thing the Remainers also say is that because we haven’t secured a trade deal with USA (T.May to blame for that because Trump offered one) Brexit is a failure, despite the fact that the EU doesn’t have one either and trade on WTO terms just as we do. On NZ they actually said it would be impossible to get a trade deal with them as NZ would be only focussed on a trade deal with the EU – turned out not to be true, that’s what happens when you makes things up based on what you want to happen rather than what is likely.

    I wonder what the correlation is between Remainers and lockdown enthusiasts ? Very high I’d guess. They’ll automatically adopt any anti-government position irrespective of what it is so their views are not that interesting.

    1. Denis Cooper
      October 22, 2021

      A special trade deal with the US would be worth little to the EU and even less to the UK.

      https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2021/09/24/the-problems-with-the-single-market/#comment-1262165

      ā€œThe study shows that the relative impact (i.e. as a share of GDP) of the TTIP is similar for the UK and US economies ā€“ between 0.15 and 0.37 % of GDP. For the EU27, the study suggests that the relative gains would be about twice that ā€“ between 0.4 and 0.8 % of GDP. The difference in the magnitude of the FTAā€™s potential impact on the UK and the EU is explained by the difference in the twoā€™s initial level of openness with the US.ā€

      1. jerry
        October 23, 2021

        @Denis Cooper; But trade deals are not just about GDP, they are about allowing access, and in time as access to ‘new’ products grow so does the GDP worth of such trade deals.

        1. Denis Cooper
          October 23, 2021

          We have access to the US market under WTO rules and that works well enough. Just as the US and Great Britain both have access to the EU Single market under WTO rules and the part of the UK that has been left behind under EU economic rule, Northern Ireland, will actually gain little from its much vaunted unfettered access to the EU Single Market. From some media reports one might suppose that Northern Ireland still has access to the EU Single Market but Great Britain now has no access at all.

          1. Peter2
            October 23, 2021

            Very well said Denis.

          2. jerry
            October 23, 2021

            @Denis Cooper; “access to the US market under WTO rules […] works well enough.”

            Not for me it doesn’t!!

          3. Peter2
            October 23, 2021

            Why Jerry, do you run a company that actually buys or sells goods between UK and USA?

          4. jerry
            October 24, 2021

            @Peter2; As a SME, potentially yes, at the moment many of the US products I can/could buy as a trader carry WTO tariffs. But even more so as a mere retail consumer, and why shouldn’t the consumer have an opinion, many imported US products that are available here in the UK carry price mark-ups due to (understandably) little import/wholesale competition, and/or tariffs, assuming the product is available at all due to often totally unwarranted, irrational, protectionist, import restrictions!

            Just to be clear though, better USA-UK trade under WTO rules than (often) no trade at all under EU rules.

          5. Peter2
            October 25, 2021

            “Potentially yes”…so no you don’t.

          6. jerry
            October 25, 2021

            @Peter2; Duh?! How can anyone buy items that are not imported, some of which can not be imported because they are banned, or would carry uneconomic (protectionist) tariffs when imported. Hence why I want a FTA with the US, hopefully meaning zero tariffs and the end of irrational bans.

            Professionally, I’ve been buying USA made products for the last 45 years.

  24. Nota#
    October 22, 2021

    World trade is good – helps to generate understanding and cooperation. The EU version is protectionism at a very high level mainly through internal generated (not World agreed) standards. This comes about mainly as under WTO rules you are not supposed to have excessive import taxes etc. Trading with the EU for any nation is one sided, the UK trading with the EU is deliberately controlling. Both China and the US export more to the EU than the UK, but do they have to accept the EU’s laws, rules and regulations internally. Are the subjected to the ECJ – of course not.

    One to amuse US import duty on EU/German Cars 2.5% – US vehicles going to Europe is a 400% uplift on this. President Trump tried to equalise these duties, the EU cried it is unfair to subject EU manufactures to the structures they themselves use against others.

    1. Mike Wilson
      October 22, 2021

      @nota

      World trade is good ā€“ helps to generate understanding and cooperation

      World trade is a disaster. Jobs are outsourced to wherever labour is cheapest. It is a race to the bottom. Also, transporting goods around the world is environmental insanity. How does my buying a jacket that says ā€˜Made in Chinaā€™ on the label help to generate ā€˜understandingā€™? What I understand is that the jacket I just paid Ā£60 for was probably made for Ā£5 and that no one in my country benefited apart from the import agent and van driver. Surely someone here could make a simple waterproof jacket, sell it for &60 and make a profit. It would mean jobs here, taxes paid here and money recycled round our economy. Why are we so useless that we import everything?

      Donā€™t companies have to state where goods are made on a brochure and on web sites?

  25. formula57
    October 22, 2021

    In fairness to the Remain critics, at least I can listen to their competitors without them legally demanding I pay over Ā£159 and otherwise harassing me with a constant stream of unpleasant letters.

    1. Mike Wilson
      October 22, 2021

      I told the BBC I didnā€™t need a licence by filling out some form. Apart from a confirmation, I have not heard from them since. I watch no BBC output nor live television. Itā€™s great. I wish I had done it years ago.

      1. Micky Taking
        October 23, 2021

        Live television? – whats that? Sport often is, but the BBC abandoned that years ago.

        1. jerry
          October 24, 2021

          @Micky Taking; Live TV = At the time of transmission. So without a TVL it is illegal to watch any UK broadcast television programme as it is received in real time (be that via Freeview, Satellite, cable or streamed via the internet) or to record it for latter “Timeshifted” consumption, it is also illegal to watch a timeshift recording that a mate (who has paid the TVL fee) gave you, additionally it is illegal to watch content via the BBC’s iPlayer.

          Nor does it matter what channel you watch, the TVL is a reception licence, not a licence to watch BBC channels…

  26. Andy
    October 22, 2021

    The reality – as we can all see – is that Brexit is an embarrassing mess.

    The problem is clear. The Brexitists knew they hated the EU but never spent a moment working out how to do things better. And it turns out that, when it comes to trade, the EU does things pretty well.

    This is why you have the ludicrous situation where the Brexitists – uniquely in history – have negotiated a deal with our biggest and closing trading partner to make trade harder. The Brexitists have imposed a tsunami of red tape on our businesses – particularly harming small businesses and food producers – hugely damaging numerous sectors. Itā€™s almost as if they didnā€™t understand that the biggest barriers to trade are not tariffs or quotas, they are regulations.

    Worse, the Brexitists seem not to understand that for the UK services are crucial – and they have done nothing at all for services. Absolutely the single market for services is not complete but it is far better than any other trade arrangement in the world. As we see from the huge damage the Brexitists have done to the music sector, for example, as well as fashion, film, architecture and so on.

    It is inevitable Brexit will be undone. It is just a question of when – and then how long the miserable failures who promoted it spend at Her Majestyā€™s pleasure.

    1. Peter2
      October 22, 2021

      Haven’t you got a business to run Andy?

    2. No Longer Anonymous
      October 22, 2021

      Yes yes yes…. they turned us into a “service” economy. Which is what got horny handed people angry and made them vote Brexit.

      You can’t outsource UK factories using EU subsidies and import EU workers using UK subsidies and not expect there to be consequences when the working class population is still enfranchised.

    3. Mike Wilson
      October 22, 2021

      Blah, blah.

  27. Iain Moore
    October 22, 2021

    I understand the NZ trade deal includes the ban on anyone doing the Haka other than Maoris. Oh dear we have entered clown world, the Government has conceded to the cultural Marxist identity politics and written it into trade law. Is the Government inclined to protect anything of our culture? Probably not they see us as just a door mat . But hold on one minute , sheep aren’t indigenous to NZ, time to ban NZ lamb, how dare they culturally appropriate our shepherding culture.

  28. Bryan Harris
    October 22, 2021

    A nice summary of why the remoaners are so dishonest.

    Let’s stop being diplomatic about those that would ruin our country for a sad dream they can’t wake up from – they are traitors and should not be allowed to participate in any element of the BREXIT success.

    I demand that we set up BREXIT passports to ensure such people are shunned, made to feel guilty, and certainly not allowed in any factories, shops or parties that did well out of BREXIT.

    1. Bill brown
      October 22, 2021

      Bryan Harris

      Please do kindly share with us, all the one’s who have done well out of Brexit? Please

    2. Nottingham Lad Himself
      October 22, 2021

      Or else what, exactly, Bryan?

      And what “success”?

    3. Rene
      October 23, 2021

      Could you name a factory or a shop or a party that has done well out of Brexit?

      Reply The pharmaceutical industry has been a clear winner

      1. Nottingham Lad Himself
        October 23, 2021

        I think that illegal dog breeders are doing quite well these days, but whether that’s down to brexit or not I couldn’t say, Rene.

        1. Peter2
          October 23, 2021

          If they are illegal….then their trade was illegal prior to Brexit.
          Come on NLH
          Is that a useful comment from you?

      2. Nottingham Lad Himself
        October 23, 2021

        …Oh, and dimpled pint pot makers are going through some kind of renaissance too…

        1. Peter2
          October 23, 2021

          Have you any data to prove that comment NLH?

      3. Micky Taking
        October 23, 2021

        well Rene, all those coffee shops all over the land have done well due to the hundreds of thousands on furlough who decided to go out, meet friends and have a coffee.

    4. Bryan Harris
      October 23, 2021

      To the snipers – the answer would be any business that no longer suffers the dire and expensive regulations to constrain them with

  29. Denis Cooper
    October 22, 2021

    Not entirely off topic, our local newspaper has printed the last letter I sent in, the one that started:

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2021/10/10/inflation-3/#comment-1266882

    “According to Brexit minister Lord Frost ā€œthe unity of the country is paramountā€.

    Unfortunately that is very much open to question as far as his boss Boris Johnson is concerned, seeing that he readily agreed to leave Northern Ireland behind under EU economic rule, with oversight by the EU court, when the rest of the UK was being removed from the orbit of EU law.”

  30. John Miller
    October 22, 2021

    Sir John, providing a unique service as you do, a political blog originated by a politician, you cannot be surprised by the contradictory ideas advanced by so many people. The commenters on here who most resent leaving the EU are also those who moan most about our own government! At least we can change who governs us, a luxury denied to the prisoners of the EU, who are governed by people who have failed in government nationally and, because of that are chosen by other failed politicians to become EU commissioners who, amazingly, become very rich people…

  31. Lifelogic
    October 22, 2021

    Frazer Nelson is surely correct today in the Telegraph:-

    ā€œThe NHS isnā€™t facing another Covid crisis ā€“ and Sajid Javid knows it
    If the Government restricts a fully vaccinated nation, it risks ushering in a new way of life for goodā€

    Indeed and had we kept schools open throughout we would have been in a far better place today. If we had Swedenā€™s relatively happy position we would now be having about 15 deaths a day within 28 days of a positive test not over 100 and huge collateral damage too. Rather a lot of excess (non covid deaths) in young adult males it seems. When will some sensible government actually sort out the dire, envy of no one sensibleā€™ communist monopoly, NHS that fails millions.

  32. Mark Thomas
    October 22, 2021

    Sir John,
    Fifty years ago New Zealand relied on the UK for almost all its foreign trade, as it had always done. That ceased to be the case when the UK joined the EEC. So in some ways the significance of a new trade deal is really symbolic, because as you say, this cements a friendly alliance that matters. An alliance that had been woefully neglected in favour of our European competitors and rivals for far too long.

  33. Original Richard
    October 22, 2021

    History shows us that asymmetric/unfair deals whether trade deals or treaties never last and our membership of the EU is another example.

    We were screwed on fishing and on goods with our European competition continuously cheating with hidden subsidies and non-tariff barriers.

    UK taxpayers were even funding the EU to subsidise corporations to move their factories out of the UK and to subsidise more expensive EU supplied food through the CAP.

    Freedom of movement was almost entirely asymmetric and led to depressing wages at the low skilled end and government/businesses importing skilled people rather than spending money on training our own people.

    Eventually a majority in the UK saw the unfairness of our EU deal and voted to leave.

    A current example of another EU asymmetric/unfair deal is the N.I.P. which we were forced into signing because of an EU supporting PM, Parliament, Civil Service and judiciary and for this reason will not last.

    1. NotA#
      October 22, 2021

      @Original Richard +1 spot on!

  34. No Longer Anonymous
    October 22, 2021

    Worse. The EU subsidised the outsourcing of our factories and made the UK taxpayer subsidise the relocation of their workers to our shores to compete for the jobs left.

  35. Denis Cooper
    October 22, 2021

    Still on the same rather off topic theme, sorry about that, I have just this morning received a two page letter from the “Protocol and Free Trade Agreement Group” at the Northern Ireland Office which sets out to explain the government’s approach in some detail, and which states inter alia:

    “The governance basis of the Protocol needs to be normalised so that the relationship between the UK and the EU is not ultimately policed by the EU institutions.”

    And then I look at this morning’s Times editorial pushing the “Swiss Solution” – why do we always have to look for a precedent, are we now incapable of devising anything original? – and that says:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-times-view-on-the-northern-irish-protocol-swiss-solution-glvm5m2vf

    “… the government is willing to settle for a dispute resolution mechanism modelled on an arrangement that the EU already has with Switzerland. This allows arbitrators to try to resolve complaints, only referring them to the ECJ as a last resort.”

    Perhaps I’m missing something terribly subtle here, but it seems to me that referring cases to the ECJ “as a last resort” would mean the UK-EU relationship was indeed “ultimately” policed by that EU institution, which is ruled out in the letter I have received today, and in paragraph 41 of the July Command Paper:

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1008451/CCS207_CCS0721914902-005_Northern_Ireland_Protocol_Web_Accessible__1_.pdf

    If one looks at the court structure in the UK there are tiers of lower courts and only a very small minority of cases ascend to the apex, the Supreme Court, but it is still the apex of the system.

    1. alan jutson
      October 22, 2021

      Yes, if the last resort is back to the ECJ then clearly they implement the rules.
      I think the negotiators perhaps have one foot nailed to the floor, because they keep on going round and round in circles.
      Looks like the blind leading the blind Dennis, with the addition of one hand not knowing what the other is doing.

    2. Freddie
      October 22, 2021

      Yes Denis, we see that NI counts for little in the grand scheme and it is generally accepted that Irish unification will happen soon enough – Scottish independence could happen even earlier – so I suppose we have taken back control and are trading with WTO rules on our own terms – just as majority wanted – so let’s get on with it

    3. Rene
      October 23, 2021

      Denis, be clear why the ECJ is still the supreme court in the UK. Labour opposed it. Greens opposed it. SNP opposed it. LibDems opposed. But the Conservatives -and only the Conservatives – embraced the deal as oven ready, and Boris made all Conservative candidates sign a pledge supporting it. Thatā€™s why the ECJ is still the supreme court in the UK

      1. Denis Cooper
        October 23, 2021

        I am clear, but JR chose not to publish another comment which ended as follows:

        “To be as clear as possible about this, the EU court of justice is the supreme arbiter of the EU treaties and laws including the rules of the EU Single Market, and so it has to be involved in Northern Ireland for as long as Northern Ireland remains under the rules of the EU Single Market, and Northern Ireland has to remain under the rules of the EU Single Market if you want to keep the present completely open land border with the Irish Republic, as both sides do, and at the same time protect the EU Single Market, if both sides agree to misdirect any necessary checks and controls to THE WRONG FLOW OF GOODS, namely those coming into Northern Ireland rather than those leaving Northern Ireland for the Irish Republic.

        It could be seen as a form of displacement activity; really we should be concentrating any necessary checks and controls on the goods that are destined to cross the land border into the Republic, but that seems to be too difficult so instead we will apply checks and controls to another flow of goods.”

  36. acorn
    October 22, 2021

    Trade in goods has taken a hit all round. Comparing Q1 2019 with Q1 2021 as follows. UK annual Total Trade has dropped from roughly Ā£1,400 bn to Ā£1,100 bn in that period.

    UK to EU is down from Ā£74 billion to Ā£57 billion a quarter.
    UK to RoW down from Ā£88 bn to Ā£78 bn.

    EU to UK down from Ā£96 bn to Ā£64 bn.
    RoW to UK down from Ā£91 bn to 74 bn.

    UK to New Zealand down from Ā£0.37 bn to Ā£0.33 bn
    New Zealand to UK down from Ā£0.28 bn to Ā£0.20 bn

    UK to Australia down from Ā£2.9 bn to Ā£2.3 bn
    Australia to UK down from Ā£2.3 bn to 0.9 bn

    I donā€™t know how many New Zealand Lamb Chops you can get in a forty foot reefer container (feu); but shipping one from Asia to Rotterdam will cost at the moment, $14,558 ; thatā€™s up 535% from last year. That will be over 15,000 food miles and a lot of CO2.

    1. X-Tory
      October 22, 2021

      If those figures are correct (and I have no reason to doubt you) then that is excellent news!

      Our Q1 trade deficit in goods with the EU has fallen from Ā£22 bn to just Ā£7 bn – a 2/3rds reduction! And our trade with the RoW has gone from a deficit of Ā£3 bn to a surplus of Ā£4 bn! In total therefore, we have gone from a Q1 deficit of Ā£25 bn to just Ā£3 bn. Fantastic.

    2. Peter2
      October 22, 2021

      Trade is restricted by Covid disturbances.
      Same all over the world.
      Surely you realise this acorn?

    3. a-tracy
      October 22, 2021

      Acorn q1 2019 was prior to the covid lockdown at the end of March 2019? How can you compare that to Q1 2021 after the country was locked down again in December 2020 and people told to continue working from home decimating the Cities.

      Why are you so bothered by a little trade deal with NZ? For me this is just a side issue. it is time Boris got on with some of his promises. He should look at reducing and cutting VAT especially on home heating bills and green products that he wants people to buy like insulation. Anyone that doesnā€™t want to buy NZ lamb doesnā€™t have to. In the same way that people who donā€™t want to buy EU butter and EU cars and EU meat can now vote with their pocket until some of the peevish restrictions on British exports are resolved.

    4. Mark
      October 23, 2021

      So the balance of trade has improved from Ā£162-Ā£187 = minus Ā£25 per quarter, or Ā£100m a year, to Ā£135 – Ā£138 = minus Ā£3 per quarter. That’s good news because we don’t have to sell so much to finance the deficit.

      Reply Yes a welcome fall in Imports from EU

  37. Iago
    October 22, 2021

    For goods borders of varying permeability, but for people no borders.
    See the Office of National Statistics, live births, country of origin of mother –
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/bulletins/parentscountryofbirthenglandandwales/2020#live-births-to-non-uk-born-mothers-by-geography

  38. ChrisS
    October 22, 2021

    When we left we did do on a one-sided deal over fishing which has been immensely damaging to our own industry and there is no sign of the Ā£100m investment in new boats to take advantage of the measly 25% increase in quote we will get over five years.

    In the meantime we have to put up with false accusations from Macron over the refusal to grant inshore fishing licences for many boats that have never been seen in British or Jersey waters. Frankly, these licence applications are fraudulent and I suspect many EU countries realise that and are refusing to support Macron over the issue.

    When the review of the fishing agreement takes place after the agreed five years, I hope that we will take back more quota or require reciprocal rights in the Med and elsewhere as a condition of continuing as per the current arrangements

  39. bill brown
    October 22, 2021

    Sir JR,

    Very interesting but unfortuantely again rather one-sided.

    I ahve not seen taht the so-called remainers believed after the event that having trade dels with other countries wold be dangerous to our manufacturers and companies?

    On teh issue of the US joining the TPP (and therefore good for us if we join) there is no mjority in COngress for joining the TPP, so the US will not be joining the TPP anytime soon, if at all. (but that does not seem to be of much interest for your argument?)

    1. Peter2
      October 22, 2021

      Meanwhile the EU’s share of world trade coninues to decline.
      And bill, check out levels of unemployment in the EU.
      Oh dear.

  40. Rhoddas
    October 22, 2021

    Spot on Sir J, now we have the freedoms to do the trade deals which suit us, this is key šŸ™‚
    Similarly with our UK immigration/points based system, we can now FLEX to meet our needs, here I think we’ve been a bit timid so far. This flexing and better coordination between Ministries needs some re-learning after 40 years of being just rule takers. Then there is the matter of industrial & services strategies to give support to the new technology needed for a non-polluting future.

  41. glen cullen
    October 22, 2021

    International Trade and Cop26 arenā€™t the only things the UN control

    UN General Assembly
    UN Security Council
    UN Economic and Social Council
    UN Trusteeship Council
    UN International Court of Justice
    UN Secretariat
    UN Regional Commissions
    UN Executive Office of the Secretary-General
    UN Office of Internal Oversight Services
    UN Office of Legal Affairs
    UN Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs
    UN Office for Disarmament Affairs
    UN Department of Peace Operations
    UN Department of Operational Support
    UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
    UN Office of Counter-Terrorism (OCT)
    UN Department for General Assembly and Conference Management
    UN Development Coordination Office
    UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs
    UN Department of Global Communications
    UN Department of Safety and Security
    UN Department of Management Strategy, Policy and Compliance
    UN Internal Justice Bodies
    UN Office of the Victims’ Rights Advocate
    UN Joint Staff Pension Fund
    UN Secretariat of the UN System Chief Executives Board for Coordination (CEB)
    UN Ethics Office
    UN Global Compact Office
    UN Office for Partnerships (UNOP)
    UN Democracy Fund (UNDEF)
    UN Staff Union
    UN Special Advisers, Representatives and Envoys
    UN Development Programme
    UN Environment Programme
    UN Population Fund
    UN Human Settlements Programme
    UN Children’s Fund
    UN World Food Programme
    UN Food and Agriculture Organization
    UN International Civil Aviation Organization
    UN International Fund for Agricultural Development
    UN International Labor Organization
    UN International Monetary Fund
    UN International Maritime Organization
    UN International Telecommunication Union
    UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
    UN Industrial Development Organization
    UN World Tourism Organization
    UN Universal Postal Union
    UN World Health Organization
    UN World Intellectual Property Organization
    UN World Meteorological Organization
    UN World Bank
    UN Programme on HIV/AIDS
    UN High Commissioner for Refugees
    UN Institute for Disarmament Research
    UN Institute for Training and Research
    UN Office for Project Services
    UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East
    UN System Staff College
    UN University
    UN Women
    UN Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization
    UN International Atomic Energy Agency,
    UN International Organization for Migration
    UN Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons
    UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
    UN World Trade Organization
    UN International Trade Centre

    The United Nations no longer serves us; we serve them

    1. lifelogic
      October 22, 2021

      No ā€œUN Menā€ then?

      Rather like having a minister for ā€œWomen & Equalityā€ how can one possible be for both? What sort of sensible person would take a job with such a moronic title? What is the budget in total of the UN and these spin offs?

      1. glen cullen
        October 22, 2021

        These arenā€™t spin offā€™s theyā€™re the main body organisationsā€¦I havenā€™t included the hundreds upon hundreds of ongoing programmes and projects
        While researching the WTO rules I was quite shocked to see the bureaucracy and scope of the UNā€¦.no wonder it takes years to conclude a treaty

      2. alan jutson
        October 22, 2021

        Lifelogic

        Follow the money !

        1. glen cullen
          October 23, 2021

          Indeed

  42. Nota#
    October 22, 2021

    China is described as the EUā€™s top trading partner, but what is the reality behind the figures? Whose market is the bigger for the EU, Chinaā€™s or the UKā€™s?

    EU Commissionā€™s No.1 priority is its ā€˜Green Dealā€™ ā€“ yet EUā€™s biggest importer is the worldā€™s biggest polluter

    https://facts4eu.org/news/2021_oct_uk_bigger_than_china

    EUā€™s trade deficit with China: -Ā£175.0 bn
    EUā€™s trade surplus with UK: +Ā£120.5 bn

    All countries importing from China (including the UK) are in effect importing pollution, but this pollution conveniently never shows in countriesā€™ carbon emissions figures as it is created in China and from Chinese-owned plants in developing countries.

    China just as with the US is not subject to ECJ rulings or the laws, rules and regulation of the EU Commission in their own countries

    1. Nota#
      October 22, 2021

      @Nota# – the above should also be read in conjunction with this – https://facts4eu.org/news/2021_oct_massive_uk

  43. forthurst
    October 22, 2021

    Our farmers need to be incentivised to increase their contribution to our food to pre-EEC levels.
    In order to achieve that, first and importantly, perverse incentives to landowners provided by the government must be removed:

    Rewild (let nature takes its course with land and water. Popular with Hollywood actors) No
    Produce intermittent electricity No
    Plant houses for invaders No
    Produce food Yes
    It’s unlikely that farmers could compete with NZ produce without assistance even after removing Tory perverse incentivisation because of the price of land, inflated by landlordism which is as helpful to our farmers as it was to the Irish.

  44. Original Richard
    October 22, 2021

    Leaving the EU means that we can negotiate our own specific trade deals as opposed to leaving it in the hands of unelected and un-removable EU commissioners more interested in protecting the interests of German cars, French food and Italian fashion.

    1. Nottingham Lad Himself
      October 22, 2021

      It’s not the fact that they are “more” interested – in fact they are even-handed – which bothers you, is it?

      It’s the fact that they are interested at all, I’d suggest.

  45. paul
    October 22, 2021

    alan Julson, I stand by my sweeping comment i make the another day.

  46. The PrangWizard of England
    October 22, 2021

    Good free trade is a fine theory and principle but we all know agreements have details. The PM has made his grand announcement and has enjoyed the limelight but what about the detail of the UK-NZ agreement.

    I heard the NZ Trade Minister state that as for livestock and the meat trade each country had agreed that neither would dilute or reduce their respective animal welfare standards. This sounds very laudable but only if each have the same standards and costs. Our leaders have stated many times, in bragging terms as usual, that ours are superior to those of others. Costs are high as a consequence of the greater regulation. It follows from this agreement that we are not able to reduce the burdensome rules to reduce costs as that will no doubt be claimed by our competitors as reducing standards and thus be in breach of the agreement.

    This is typical of this governments incompetence and complacency as we saw in the Brexit deal; we were let down by weakness and it looks as if we will have been let down again – losing when we should be winning – but it is being deceitfully trumpeted as some massive success.

  47. turboterrier
    October 22, 2021

    In January 2020 under an FOI request from Scottish forestry regarding the number of trees felled and the area of land affected by the construction of wind farms the reply was as follows:-

    Specifically data covering renewable developments on Scotlandā€™s national forests and lands, which is managed on behalf of Scottish Ministers by Forestry and Land Scotland. The area of felled trees in hectares, from 2000 (the date when the first scheme was developed, is 6,994 hectares [70 kmĀ², 17,283 acres]. Based on the average number of trees per hectare, of 2000, this gives an estimated total of 13.9M.

    It begs the question what happend to all the felled lumber and did it offset the purchasing from Scandinavia, timber for our own construction industry, or was it the wrong type of wood. Either way not very green. Especially when you take into account the harvesting and removal from the sites unless of course it was just left to rot on the ground. Did it have any export value? Another case of lost opportunities in the relentless charge to a CO2 free country

  48. Lifelong
    October 22, 2021

    I don’t think the US is going to join TPP any time soon- President Trump pulled out.. said that America comes first.. also others say that it would be a race to the bottom where the workers in all countries would be undermined and come off the poorer so anyway the Biden administration is unlikely to join considering Trump might be back in power in three years time and reverse the whole thing again.

    The problem for us with TPP is that the jury is still out about the pro’s and con’s of this trading group- I read where the agreement runs to 5600 pages and a lot of the chapters are still kept in secret even economists are deeply divided amongst themselves about it all. So I can’t see it getting off the ground any time soon and certainly not for UK – in real terms we are geographically too far away – think of all of those miles of distance with ships burning up fossil fuels and then Cop 26 already here – then think TPPEXIT – for us it could be out of the pan into the fire.

  49. Peter from Leeds
    October 22, 2021

    Sir John,

    It is not just on the EU that the MSM put out totally contradictory news items. Last night they were lambasting the government on not producing and rolling out enough vaccines for boosters and for kids. But the next item was lambasting the government for not sending enough vaccines to African countries and being selfish in keeping them for ourselves.

    Never let logic get in the way of a news story.

    1. jon livesey
      October 22, 2021

      Another good one the BBC got out yesterday was that when the UK Government offered to directly replace some very small EU grants to Wales, that was actually an “assault on devolution”.

  50. acorn
    October 22, 2021

    “Brexit supporters always had a sense of perspective over trade deals, knowing the key was WTO membership for trade access.”

    I may make a considered reply when my DM&NC team stops laughing at your post. Are you seriously telling us that the average “leave” voter, had the faintest idea that the WTO existed; and, what it was supposed to to do? A basic WTO membership just allows a member to register a tariff schedule of the maximum import tariffs it will apply to other WTO members as their “most favoured nations”, and nothing else.

    1. Peter2
      October 22, 2021

      Yes the average leave voter knew the WTO existed.
      Just as the average remain voter did.
      Stop being very silly acorn.
      But if you think you are right provide proof via facts and data as your pal Hefner often says.

    2. jon livesey
      October 22, 2021

      Since trading with the EU on WTO terms was a widely discussed option all through the referendum discussion period, and WA negotiations, in other words for about six years, then yes, I think they actually did know that.

      You know, it’s a central, though unacknowledged, part of urban elitism to assume that no-one except urban elites can know anything.

      1. acorn
        October 23, 2021

        At that time, I was campaigning for “leave” and I voted leave at the ballot. People would tell me the UK would do fine under WTO “Rules”, I would respond, you mean WTO “Terms”, we have been under WTO Rules in or out of the EU for decades. That is when I discovered they understood to the level of the tabloid headlines.

        Later, I discovered there was no post Brexit plan, not even a basic framework of a plan. As far as Downing Street was concerned, a “leave” vote was the last paragraph of the last chapter in the Brexit game manual. Nobody had the faintest idea what was in the first chapter of the post Brexit manual.

        1. Peter2
          October 23, 2021

          Bit pedantic acorn
          WTO rules
          WTO terms.
          PS
          Perhaps there was insufficient planning for leaving because the elite in Westminster all thought leave would never win.

  51. ChrisS
    October 22, 2021

    I see that the Sky.com is reporting that Wokingham has the highest rate of Covid infections in the UK at 43.2%.
    Perhaps our host could give us his thoughts on why this is and what should be done to reduce infection rates across the whole of the UK ?

  52. No Longer Anonymous
    October 22, 2021

    “The Boiler Police are not going to kick your door in with their sandal-clad fee and seize, at carrot point, your trusty old combi,”

    How I guffawed with laughter at our PM.

    Ha ha ha ha….gnnnnnn…. ha ha ha ha HA HA HA HA ! GNYEEEEEEE HA HA HA…. Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) style *hands out card explaining uncontrolled laughter*

    The bandit !

    We know full well that the “switch” will be made by taxes and making our houses unsaleable.

  53. Denis Cooper
    October 22, 2021

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/eu-considers-terminating-brexit-trade-deal-if-u-k-rift-deepens-1.1670280

    “EU Considers Terminating Brexit Trade Deal If U.K. Rift Deepens”

    “Shutting down the trade accord sealed on Christmas Eve last year would play havoc with a British economy already plagued by supply shortages … ”

    Sure, in the long term it could cost us 0.75% of GDP, according to the EU:

    https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2021/10/22/good-and-bad-trade-deals/#comment-1270029

    “The EU estimate is on page 21 here:

    https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/economy-finance/ip144_en_1.pdf … ”

    Would that constitute “havoc”?

  54. Blazes
    October 22, 2021

    The average brexiteer voter didn’t vote to just leave the EU instead he voted to have the empire back again.. and that’s the truth.. that’s why we are in the fix we are in and talking about TPP and other such rubbish about special deals with NZ on the other side of the world is pie in the sky. In our minds we are all mixed up and it comes back to our education system and class conditioning by politicians and the rag press telling us and each other on a continual basis how great we are.. and how great we once were.. superior to everyone else.. well all I can say is that this is the year 2021 and we’ll have to try to live with it now

    Reply What nonsense. I met no Brexit voter wanting Empire back. We just wanted our own country back and wanted to cut our reliance On EU imports, rules and taxes.

    1. Gary Megson
      October 23, 2021

      It’s nonsense from you, Mr Redwood. Leavers lined up to tell us we would MAINTAIN our reliance on EU imports and rules – from Gove to Farage, Paterson to Hannan, and of course Johnson, they all told us we would not be leaving the single market, we’d be a madman to do so, we’d get a deal like Norway’s. That means EU imports, EU rules. But once the referendum was won, all these promises were torn up, and now we have a barmy Brexit, full of trade barriers and red tape, and economically illiterate claims that a trade deal with NZ (net benefit to the Uk, zero) can compensate for loss of guaranteed frictionless access to the biggest single market on the planet, which is on our doorstep

      Reply I told you no such things and proposed leaving the single market.

  55. jon livesey
    October 22, 2021

    I find it odd that anyone has to point out the contradictions at the heart of the Remainer argument.

    In fact, if you say trade with the EU is good for Britain and trade with the rest of the World is bad for Britain, there would more or less *have* to be some slight contradictions.

    1. Gary Megson
      October 23, 2021

      On the contrary, Remainers say all trade is good. Leaving the EU means less trade with the EU, and with absolutely zero increase in trade with the nonEU (in fact, a bit of a decrease because of loss of the EU’s trade deals). Leaving the EU is bad, and not one single benefit exists

      1. Mike Wilson
        October 23, 2021

        Leaving the EU is bad, and not one single benefit exists

        On the contrary. Leaving the EU is good. The trade deficit has already fallen considerably. The ultimate benefit will be when all trade ceases. Just think of all the money that wonā€™t be leaving this country. The money will be spent here. It will create jobs here. Tax will be paid here so that public services can be provided here. Why you are obsessed with us spending money on goods from Germany and France baffles me. Why do want to send our money to them?

      2. Micky Taking
        October 23, 2021

        Leaving the EU, due to their spite, means less trade for them to us, which is way larger than us to them. Hooray!

      3. Peter2
        October 23, 2021

        So presumably Brits are buying more goods and services from within the UK Gary.

  56. Hazlet
    October 22, 2021

    Presumably if we are going to join TPP then, we, the people will have a vote on it?

    For instance if we join another club tpp with rules and courts and in time get tired of it all then we should also be able to have a referendum to vote our way out

    1. Peter2
      October 23, 2021

      It is just a trade deal Hazzy.
      Not exactly a huge constitutional issue.

  57. jon livesey
    October 22, 2021

    The BBC has one of their clueless pieces on NI today, trying very hard to make sense and be “woke” at the same time, but it contains this gem:

    “Meanwhile, a report led by Queen’s University Belfast has suggested that Brexit is leading to a ‘hardening of views’ in Ireland and Northern Ireland.”

    This is one to watch. Despite the assumtpions of the urban elites, the voters of NI are not asleep and they know perfectly well what lies behind the pressures being put on them by the EU and the ROI. Was a “hardening of views” exactly what the EU and its supporters wanted?

  58. Ed M
    October 22, 2021

    Question? Why do we have the EU / talking about the EU?

    (Important if we want Brexit to work and reshape Europe for our benefit).

    Answer? World War 2.

    3 reasons for this:

    1) Europe was devastated after WW1. The EEC did a good job, to a degree, in helping parts of Europe get back on its feet
    2) The EU is seen as the opposite of nationalism which was the cause of WW2. But let’s be clear as liberals get this wrong – big time. Nationalism is NOT the same as Patriotism (a Judaeo-Christian and Greco-Roman virtue). Patriotism is a healthy love of one’s country. No more, no less. Nationalism is an unhealthy love of one’s country which involves arrogance and looking down on others. Like the Nazis in WW2.

    So much of liberalism today (including the EU) is an indirect reaction the horror of the nationalism and far right politics of WW2. But this far right politics has nothing to do with patriotism which is completely healthy and good.

    Reply The US Marshall aid not the EU boosted the sheer hard work of many nations in rebuilding after the war. The EU is promoting EU nationalism with Presidents, flag, anthem, emerging military forces etc.

    1. Ed M
      October 22, 2021

      We need to encourage Sovereignty / Patriotism in Europe in general (Sovereignty being part of Patriotism) but where we always have close relations with our European partners – but OUTSIDE a single market / a political union (in other words where each country is completely sovereign). Close relations, for example, in trade, security and culture. That just makes good geopolitical sense and we have so much in common in terms of religion / history / culture / politics across Europe.

    2. Ed M
      October 23, 2021

      ‘The US Marshall aid not the EU boosted the sheer hard work of many nations in rebuilding after the war’

      – This is true (I’m not a big fan off the EEC – just saying it had benefits – but those benefits became redundant around 1980’s / 1990’s).

      ‘The EU is promoting EU nationalism with Presidents, flag, anthem, emerging military forces etc’ – I don’t think EU is promoting nationalism but I do think the EU is seriously flawed for other reasons, in particular because it diminishes sovereignty / patriotism which are both morally good and beneficial to a country in general. To me the EU is a kind of HERESY – just as nationalism is a kind of HERESY too.

      Nationalism (bad) is a heresy of patriotism (good)
      The EU (bad) is a heresy of Europe getting on well in Trade, Culture & Security but OUTSIDE the Single Market (good).
      Sadly, mankind seems to drift from one extreme to the other (hard right nationalism 1930’s / 1940’s to hyper liberalism / woke / and lack of patriotism now and in last few decades)

      1. Ed M
        October 23, 2021

        Sorry not saying Single Market is good. I meant being outside the Single Market (and EU law etc) but having good relationships with Europe in general in Trade, Security and Culture is good.

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