At the time of the last budget I spoke about the unduly pessimistic forecasts for growth, tax revenues and the deficit. Yesterday’s figures show the deficit for the current financial year is running £25.9 bn below forecast with one month left. The Treasury/ONS forgot to mention they lowered the deficit forecast by £50 bn at the half year stage. So in truth the deficit is a massive £75 bn below where the Treasury thought it would be. It undermines their claim that they need to impose a new tax to raise £12bn extra a year to make the finances prudent.
The figures show a surge in revenue with no rise in tax rates. Inflation boosts VAT and fuel duties. Stamp duty revenues are strongly up thanks to many more housing transactions and higher prices. The tax rises planned for April will slow the economy and may slow the growth in revenues.
The latest misleading gloom spin comes in the form of the so called interest charges. To make these look a lot scarier and unaffordable they lump in with the genuine regular cash interest payments the revaluation of indexed debt. This debt has to be refinanced or repaid on maturity at the same real value as borrowed. Holders are therefore repaid more pounds than they lent. There are no regular cash payments to bond holders to reflect inflation so it is quite wrong to call this debt interest. They also fail to put into the accounts any credit to the state for the devaluation of the rest of the debt which will be repaid in pounds worth considerably less than those borrowed and spent when the debt was first issued.
Why does the Treasury always want austerity and want us to feel miserable?
March 23, 2022
The two answers to your question at the end are:
1 to control the narrative and
2 to control the financially incontinent and illiterate PM.
March 23, 2022
Also scientifically, climate and energy illiterate PM and his deluded wife.
March 23, 2022
That is not the question. The question is why does the establishment choose these people to run the country. There are people to hand (sir John and others), but always the same people decade after decade, party/team after party/team.
With a brief hiatus in the 80’s
I will never vote again to vote “against” something, only to perpetuate this system.
March 23, 2022
+1. Boester. Well said.
March 23, 2022
The Tory party has been given three chances through 3 PMs to deliver what it told the electorate and on each occasion all have been treacherous, specious, dishonest and not even attempted to deliver what they promised. Each time blaming other causes for failures.
March 24, 2022
And the 80 seat majority means the party deserves to be thrown out.
March 24, 2022
+1
March 23, 2022
Also to keep us aligned with Brussels for the day when they hope we can rejoin the super gravy train.
It is their long term aim to bankrupt us in lune with WEF instructions.
I see Sunak now has his own page on the WEF website. Tells you everything really.
March 23, 2022
Update. Today wind is supplying 3.1% of demand on a fairly quiet day of 31gw .
Please explain how doubling down on windmills will cover the other 96.9% of demand.
March 23, 2022
Keep the objective in sight.
It is to reduce overall CO2 output averaged over the year.
It is not to have the simplest possible means of generating electricity.
We get a lot of sunny and windy days. If we do not generate CO2 on those, then that greatly assists with the objective.
March 23, 2022
Ian. It won’t.
March 23, 2022
+1
March 23, 2022
Ian Wrag.
Good God! How blatant can he get.
March 23, 2022
Any interaction with the WEF is an act of treason against the democratic people of the UK
March 24, 2022
Indeed and Boris is the chief traitor. We can apply your comment to the UN too.
March 23, 2022
JR, I read yesterday in TCW article Ukraine one of the most corrupt govts. Does Johnson or anyone in cabinet ask for updates and proof of how exactly the £400 million of our taxes he gave the Ukraine is spent?
I ask because the £11.8 billion stolen by fraud to Sunak’s covid schemes appears to me to be repeated stupidity. How is it possible to make so many repeated mistakes to reach this vast total. Is this why he wants to write it off? Moreover why has he not resigned? Presumably this is why he does not want any fuss or press reporting on the childish scams his dept fell for. Have any of you pressed for an investigation? Any of you pressed for Sunak to go? This is a vast amount of taxes equal to the amount he is now imposing from NIC hike.
March 23, 2022
If he went you would still be stuck with the permanent Treasury. Look up Lord Agnew’s description of them before the Select Committee.
March 24, 2022
No Rose quite wrong. Sunak is in charge. If his dept does not deliver on his wishes or acts inappropriately it is up to him to make staff changes. As Rees-Mogg pointed out over Brexit, it was not Olly Robbins fault it was Teresa May who was in charge of him. This equally applies to all ministers and their dept, including the most senior meanderings. Why has the FCO head not been sacked over Afghanistan? He should not be collecting his £180,000, but his P45.
With the privilege of office comes responsibility. If the ministers do not have the courage or wherewithal to lead get out. How many times have we read JRs blogs moaning about the Treasury instead of where the blame actually lies? JR rightly highlights the figures, if he is capable of seeing what is going on so should Sunak. If not he walks.
March 24, 2022
‘Treasury Minister Lord Agnew resigns over government’s ‘lamentable’ record on tackling Covid business loan fraud’ 24/01/2022, news.sky.com, also politics.co.uk
About a £4.3 bn write-off following the Government’s ‘nothing less than woeful’ track record of tackling fraudulent use of a Covid Bounce Back Loan Scheme.
committee.parliament.uk ‘How will £17 bn Covid loan losses be recouped?’
ukpol.co.uk ‘Lord Agnew – 2022 Resignation statement in the House of Lords over Coronavirus Fraud’, 24/01/2022.
Please rose, how does your comment articulate with the content of Lord Agnew’s speech? Are you addressing the same event? Are BEIS, BBB and other lender banks ‘white as snow’ even when practically no checks were ever carried out on the more than 1,000 companies that sprung up in Spring 2020 to receive those loans? So everything to the ‘permanent Treasury’’s debit?
March 23, 2022
Why doesn’t the Chancellor “call out” the Treasury Officials who want austerity and for us to feel miserable?
Why doesn’t he challenge those providing the wrong forecasts and, since it seems to be a regular occurrence, get them moved to a role where they can do less damage?
Why is our elected Government failing to improve the performance of the Civil Service?
I suggest there is one answer to all of those questions, which is: Because they don’t want to.
March 23, 2022
Donna,
Why is Sunak and Johnson not leading, telling them the direction of travel for policy and if the fail they go!
Sadly I think the phrases JR uses like Treasury instead of chancellor is to deflect failure from his party and govt.
March 23, 2022
‘Why does the Treasury always want austerity and want us to feel miserable?’
I am not sure that the Treasury is any more important in shaping policy than the government’s friends in Davos.
March 23, 2022
JR, not the Treasury, Sunak and your party and govt. Please make it clear who is in charge and leading these policies and stories you refer to.
If policy is being shaped by party MPs then accept responsibility. It is in yours and your colleagues gift to get rid of Johnson.
If Sunak and Johnson want to hold the posts accept the responsibility and do not blame others.
Like Johnson’s party gate excuse no one told me. He is in charge and should be doing the telling!
Reply Mr Sunak is the leader of the Treasury. The work is done by officials and the forecasts are “independent” i.e. he cannot change them
March 23, 2022
Reply to reply: He can if they are clearly and regularly wrong. Incompetence should not be tolerated anywhere. You highlight on many occasions how their figures and forecasts are wrong. He might as well hire Mystic Meg.
Who created these extra costly quango bodies at taxpayers’ expense? It all used to be by the Treasury. 12 years ago Cameron was going to have a bonfire of quangos, he was also going to cut the number of MPs. How are these promises developing?
March 24, 2022
The forecasts are ‘independent’. Would people be more trusting if the forecasts were made by the Chancellor himself? somebody else in Government? the Treasury? I do not think so. Would forecasts be more trusted if made by Sir John? Would he have forecasted Covid? the war in Ukraine?
Anyway the point is moot as shown in assets.publishing.service.gov.uk ‘Forecasts for the UK economy: A comparison of independent forecasts’, No.413, Dec’2021. This report contains forecasts by 18 City forecasters and 14 non-City forecasters.
The OBR (obr.uk) takes account of these and may add up some more conditioning assumptions but is unlikely to produce anything not falling within the range of the forecasts in the above paper.
So to criticise (as done on this blog) the OBR’s (recent poor) forecasts simply denotes ignorance or hypocrisy.
reply I have correctly criticised Treasury forecasts and been more accurate than them in what I have said
March 24, 2022
Amazing you think it is “ignorance or hypocrisy” just to criticise several very inaccurate forecasts heffy.
Would you prefer everyone just kept quiet about it?
Probably you would.
March 24, 2022
Reply to reply: Next time you are to issue one of your forecasts could you please tell your readers where they can find it (including the date of issue and the period over which it is valid) so that they can check for themselves a few months later whether your forecast was better or worse than the official ones.
In the absence of such information beforehand it is rather difficult for your readers to judge your forecaster’s skills.
reply See my speech on the March 2021 OBR forecasts where I clearly signalled a lower deficit and more tax revenue for the current year.If you so hate me I suggest you leave this site.
March 24, 2022
Totally agree Sir John.
March 23, 2022
It’s a great pity that people in high places have ignored 100% accurate forecasts.
As Carl Scott, former UK defence attaché writes in the FT,
“This long, dark march to war was obvious, the path to conflict lit by the many pronouncements emanating from the dark red walls of Vladimir Putin’s palace. We reported the inevitability of conflict in detail, regularly and with the despair of Cassandra. The evidence of Putin’s chosen path was never concealed. His many declarations were meant to be heard and understood.
It was not until I returned to the UK on the eve of our withdrawal from the EU, a manoeuvre which greatly emboldened those in Moscow, that I understood how our society had changed in the years I was serving overseas. All was subjugated to the City, all served the interests of our lucrative status as a safe haven for corrupt, and corrupting, wealth.”
March 23, 2022
So the EU’s expansion policy to the East and Biden’s disastrous rapid retreat from Afghanistan, plus his statement that he would not get involved in Ukraine had no effect?
March 23, 2022
The period of Carl Scott’s office in Moscow was 2011-2016.
The European Union has no expansion policy.
It has an accession policy for any country interested in that, however.
March 24, 2022
The EU has had a policy of encouraging new members to join and actively promotes that desire.
It courted Ukraine.
That is a policy of expansion.
Why so touchy NHL ?
March 24, 2022
Peter 2
And the push to greenism, especially German reliance on Putin’s gas.
March 24, 2022
I had hoped you would remember that it was the Visegrad Group (created in 1991), the Vilnius Group (from 1999) and the Adriatic Charter Group (from 2003) that had pushed/are still pushing for the accession of their relevant countries to NATO and the EU.
But it does not look so. So much easier (and intellectually less demanding) to say it is all the fault of the EU and Biden.
O/T but related: Do you really really want US and other NATO troops involved in Ukraine? You have to tell us.
March 24, 2022
I suggest you stop waving “your look how clever I am” flag heffy and accept that NHL’s post was nonsense.
Of course nations may want to join.
Your post proves nothing
The point is should the EU allow them to join when it has big geo political reactions.
March 25, 2022
What about you P2 stopping only commenting after only a few here when some others with really stupid statements never receive the benefits of your wisdom. Or even better please distribute more widely the fruits of your thinking.
March 23, 2022
3) To make Brexit fail. They can’t wait to see it happen and get us asking to go back in again.
Government seem to be finding actual governing rather irksome and would seem to like to offload some of their decision making so they can go back to their easy life of jollies again and keep a way open to lucrative possible future in a cushy EU job. Not necessarily ministers when I say that, but the so called Civil Service.
March 23, 2022
Yes, Graham, it isn’t just at the Treasury. Both in NI and at the French border they are working to make Brexit fail. It isn’t just the EU officials who are making life for business difficult.
March 23, 2022
Indeed.
The Chancellor’s tax raids (so far) are to cost every adult (not worker or household but adult) in UK an extra £1,000 a year – and yet the dope still mutters about ‘the security of a faster growing economy’. The expensive energy net zero agenda probably another £1000 per adult on top of this. So how on earth will this vast tax grab do anything for growth? Especially when it will nearly all be wasted on lunacies like net zero, eat out to help out, vaccinating children (it clearly does net harm), pointless lockdowns, HS2, even more red tape, EV subsidies… This also combined with the insane expensive & intermittent energy agenda, the fracking bans, the endless new and misguided red tape, quarterly tax reporting, the appalling attacks on the self employed and landlords…
Sunak is clearly a deluded socialist menace to the economy. The best you can say of the PPE dope is he is not quite as appalling Labour/SNP & Rachel Reaves might be. Rachel also read PPE rather wasting her further maths A level – but why would anyone sensible choose to join the Labour Party? The Tories are clearly blatant piss down the drain socialists anyway and with rather pleasanter constituencies.
March 23, 2022
The odd thing is that The Chancellor has nearly always voted against the EU, to leave, get out ASAP, have a bonfire of all the EU rules etc.
So why is he helping Project Fear? ( The “This is your Brexit” brigade).
Or were his votes the same sort of red herrings that Johnson worked on for years?
March 23, 2022
LL, it is not just Sunak. It is Johnson, the cabinet and party. Sunak is not acting alone or enacting a rogue policy. This got signed off by cabinet.
This is a historic tax hiking govt. this is a a govt that has created historic debt, deficit. Far worse than Labour! Even David Davis on TV last night joked about role reversal with Farage! I am glad he finds it funny. People across the country are angry that this lying govt said u equivocally there would be no tax increase then does the exact opposite. Same for immigration, wasteful spending, Sunak not interested in recovering £11.8 billion to fraud from his covid schemes even though NCA offered to investigate, labelled school boy errors by Lord Agnew in his resignation speech.
This tax hiking, wasteful spending goes straight back to Johnson who runs his personal life in a similar way. Mrs T had a reputation for being frugal, Johnson chaotic wasteful misfit.
March 23, 2022
She was only frugal with public money. With her own and Denis’s she was very generous.
March 24, 2022
Rose,
I agree. But she could do as she pleased with her own money. Conservatives believe people know best how to spend their money not the state through huge tax rises.
March 23, 2022
Yes, there are so many Brexit changes-for-better opportunities, but we’re still waiting for most of them to appear. If JR-M doesn’t produce a bookshelf full of nation freeing legislative ideas, then we’ll know it’s all been just a Bunter Boris con-job.
March 23, 2022
True but it is the PM and Cabinet that have to agree (& the daft green (remainer surely?) theatre studies graduate Carrie?
March 23, 2022
It would be a very good idea if the treasury got its A into G and invested some money in putting a dedicted team together to carry out internal audits that will not only expose the billions of waste but make people accountable.
A few politicians will get upset that their grandiose projects are targeted but that’s tough, the country has got to start living within its means.
March 23, 2022
The state has got to stop pissing money down the drain start with net zero, the gold plated pensions for over paid state workers, HS2, subsidies for renewables, the soft loans (often in effect grants) for mainly worthless degrees… just get the state to do the rather few things it can actually do better than businesses, charities or individuals can. 20% of GDP not 50% should be the target. Then stop tying the hands of the productive sector with pointless red tape, insane energy policies, restrictive planning and daft employment laws…
March 23, 2022
The UK GDP is $2.7 tn, forecast 2022 expenses are around the trillion mark, with 80% for central-, 20% for local government.
Details of how the money is allocated appear in Figure 3 (Departmental expenditure limits) and 4 (Real term public expenditure) of gov.uk ‘Public spending statistics, February 2022’, 25/02/2022.
So which of the bits in those figures should be decreased or completely cut, as it is one thing for Life’logic’ to come up with the vacuous statement ‘20% of GDP not 50% should be the target’, it might be another thing for him to put his huge intellect to work to provide a detailed picture of where he wants the cuts to happen.
I do not want to restrict the exercise to LL, anybody can have a go, even Sir John.
March 23, 2022
Lets Turbocharge that by putting together a LARGE audit department and get the job done quickly and keep boots on necks of the wasters
March 23, 2022
Why does the Treasury always want austerity and want us to feel miserable? Not only that the agenda (of tax borrow and piss the money down the drain combined with very poor and incompetent public services and expensive intermittent energy) will kill growth, living standard, raise less tax and be a political disaster too.
John ERM Major destroyed the Tories reputation for relative economic competence (and not even saying sorry for it), they then lost 3+ elections. Sunak is clearly determined to repeat this if he can. With net zero, manifesto ratting loons Boris and Carrie insanely cheering it all on.
March 23, 2022
Life logic,
I note that drains are being mentioned more often in your posts. Maybe not as much as PPEs, but certainly now eclipsing ’greencrap’ which seems to be on the decline.
March 23, 2022
Lots of PPE dopes and purveyors of green crap on show today. Both the tax to death Socialist (pretending not to be) Sunak and the shadow Chancellor too. She compared Sunak to the appalling PM Ted Heath (with his three day week, energy shortages, inflation, EU joining (without consent) and prices and incomes policies) well perhaps.
But perhaps more like 98% income tax Dennis Healey at this rate! A double first (Greats) yet so dim he actually though 98% income tax was a great economic plan! Some ideas are so stupid only academics can believe in them.
March 24, 2022
In 1971 the rate of income tax on earned income (TREI) started at 30% (for up to £5k) to a top rate of 75% for earned income over £20k (a bit more than £210k in 2020).
These became 33% in 1974 then 35% in 1974 (for up to £4.5k) with the TREI moving to 73% in 1974 and 75% in 1975 (for incomes between £15k and £20k). Every EI above £20k was taxed at 83%.
Find ‘TA.2 – Rates of Income Tax:1973-74 to 1989-90’.
In addition a surcharge of 15% had been put on the top rate on investment income (TRII) so making the TRII becoming 98%.
Anybody telling that the tax rate had been 98% for everything offers a particularly biased version of tax history.
March 24, 2022
Lifeloguc did not say”98% had been the tax rate for everything” as you falsely claim hef.
March 25, 2022
Gotcha again P2.
March 23, 2022
Sir John didn’t exactly specify austerity to whom. Not the MPs, who can vote themselves an inflation matching pay rise, not the global multinationals that squirrel their money out of reach of UK taxation, not really the government either, which carries on borrowing regardless. The austerity is aimed at the ordinary hard-working British citizen, who has to face up to rocketing energy costs, whilst getting a kick in the teeth from the government with higher taxes.
No doubt the feckless will be shielded from harm, at the expense of the hard-working, because the government can’t tell the difference between them and the genuinely needy.
March 23, 2022
Indeed.
March 23, 2022
Not Treasure, do not fall into JRs trap to deflect blame from his party and govt. the instructions and orders come from ministers and cabinet. Policy now shaped by party MPs.
The blame is the consocialist party, not inanimate objects, diseases, departments, other countries, the EU or the world.
March 23, 2022
No doubt a wind-turbine here or there will solve the issue…it’s the solution for everything else
March 23, 2022
+1
March 23, 2022
Don’t let the Tories bankrupt the UK in a desperate attempt to appease the Left’s now gargantuan vested interest that has spread itself across all areas of the State
Both English parties and the fascists in Scotland are abusing the credit worthiness of the UK to finance their party political interest
The values of good money management under Thatcher have been discarded to be replaced by State vested interest, lobby group parasitism and naked spending to achieve political objectives
The two faced Tories embracing Labour’s client state apparatus is without precedence in British history
Every Tory MP will campaign to protect the two party status quo from harm. Not upsetting Labour is every Tory MPs aim.
650 Socialists in the Commons, no values and no moral compass
March 23, 2022
Not 650 perhaps 80 (at best) are sound MPs. Though I agree that only a tiny handful are actually sound on climate realism, the new zero lunacy and energy policy.
March 23, 2022
We live under an elective dictatorship with the worst government and parliament in my lifetime.
March 23, 2022
Which you probably voted for. Spare a thought for the 55m of us who didn’t vote for it.
March 23, 2022
55 million didn’t vote against it young andy.
You are being very silly.
March 24, 2022
There are about 50 m voters in the UK, exactly 49,153,700 in December 2019 in the local government electoral registrations according to the ONS.
March 24, 2022
What has that got to do with it?
He said 55million didn’t vote for it.
That is as wrong as it is silly.
March 23, 2022
We see the work of real fascists on our screens every day now.
Please don’t insult its victims with your grotesque slur on the democratically-elected devolved government on a UK nation, which sticks scrupulously to the rule of law, and imply that the former are simply enjoying a similar life to the latter.
You don’t actually care about them, or about anyone really though, do you?
March 25, 2022
You are even so blinded to recognise my comment was supporting yours, P2.
March 23, 2022
Inflation is – foremost – a seller’s lack of faith in the money being paid for his goods. It has nothing to do with “too much cash chasing too few goods” and everything to do with “the buyer with the best money wins the bid.”
This is the price of watering down the Queen’s promise to pay the bearer.
So I have no faith now that rearing our own livestock and growing our own crops will result in us getting to eat them. They’ll go to the most credit worthy bidders in a global market. What’s the government to do next ? Requisition farms ?
March 23, 2022
Another accurate portrayal of what is happening to politics in this country Dom
March 23, 2022
You mean 650 ‘Green’ Socialists in the Commons….and I thought we’d voted in a conservative government, no a real Tory amongst them
March 24, 2022
One of the characteristics of the Conservative Party over at least the last 70 years has been ‘its’ faculty to adapt, even possibly outside the wishes of its majority of older members, as its politicians specially its MPs, Cabinet members and PMs can have ideas not always in agreement with those of its ‘now inactive members of society’.
James Ramsden, 1998, An appetite for Power, HarperCollins only covers the period from 1714 to 1997.
A shorter and more recent read is ‘The Conservatives’, by R. Harris, 2013, Corgi
Anybody who thinks that the Conservative Party should be an immovable stone that could return to the ‘golden years’ (cough cough) of the 1980s might get a shock reading one of these books.
Another one likely to be interesting is being published today (24/03): C.Tugenghat, 2022, ‘The Worm in the Apple: A history of the Conservative Party and Europe from Churchill to Cameron’, Haus Publ. (that’s Chris, Tom’s uncle). I am looking forward to reading it.
March 23, 2022
Good morning.
The forecasts are just a guide to may happen based on past results. I wounder what information they collect to formulate such and, when they indeed do get it wrong, what changes do they make to be more accurate. To me this is the more logical approach rather just banging in the same numbers and hoping for the best.
If there is indeed a surplus of cash, then why not offer it back to those who pay into it, ie the taxpayer, in the form of a rebate rather than allow the State to spend and waste even more ?
March 23, 2022
Stand by to be totally underwhelmed by Rishi’s largesse.
March 23, 2022
Good idea Mark, however this is not a tax cutting party or govt.
They like to falsely claim to be to get votes. This is not based on fact or record. The ministers have the best advice and facts to make speeches from. So I can only draw from this they are deliberately lying.
March 23, 2022
Some time ago, May did a little dance on the way to the podium, in an effort to convince us she wasn’t a Maybot. Today, Sunak will try a sleight of hand to convince us he isn’t a socialist, in an effort to get into No 10. He will fail.
The main thing I want to see today is an announcement that Hospitality Sector VAT will not be put back to 20%. This will give businesses some relief from much higher labour and energy costs.
P.S. I see that interest payments on the National Debt are currently ca. £100 bn/year.
March 23, 2022
The so-called National debt interest, is scheduled to be circa net £40 billion for 21/22. Keep in mind that £16.6 billion was paid by the Treasury into its own account at the BoE Asset Purchase Facility last year. The latter managed to lose £ 56 billion on its “financial instruments” last year as well. That would be a good question to ask the Chancellor. ;-)https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/asset-purchase-facility/2021/annual-report-2021.pdf?la=en&hash=FB4576A7AD9F2412EB60F04CE9622C028BFC9372
March 23, 2022
Sir John – will you have the opportunity in the near future to ask the Chancellor exactly WHY the OBR/Treasury is getting its forecasts so drastically wrong?
Who knows, could it simply be that they are using the same computer system for their modelling as the one that created such havoc and human tragedy at the Post Office?
March 23, 2022
+1
March 23, 2022
Oft said I know.
But when are they going to drop this idea that they have the power of prediction?
They just don’t!
March 23, 2022
No-one ever got into trouble by over estimating bad news. Then, when the news turns out to be better, they bask in how well their department has done.
This is just human nature and is irredeemable.
But the carrot and stick are missing. Bad forecasts must be punishable and good forecasts rewarded. Poor Priti Patel, struggling with the Home Office, is treated as a stupid bully. I think she is just suffering from CivilServiceitis. “Don’t hold me to account and don’t make me work hard”.
March 23, 2022
The Treasury (and Civil Service in general) aren’t satisfied with the Pretendy-Conservative Government they’re having to deal with and especially not one that forced Brexit on them. They want a REAL Labour Government.
So why would they do anything that might generate significant growth and improve the economy? All that would do is make the Government they crave less likely.
Johnson should have allowed Cummings to carry out the reforms the Civil Service so desperately requires. But Princess Nut Nuts thought differently.
March 23, 2022
Donna,
We read he cut his trip to Saudi Arabia short to attend the 34th birthday party of his latest squeeze! How many parties, do they want? Not as if the trip was important or anything, as long as it grabbed a headline to create a narrative.
March 23, 2022
I suppose the answer to your question is that the vast majority of politicians think that if they spend more money it will make them popular and so to do that they need to collect more money in taxes in the first place. The Treasury/Civil Service are happy to comply as the last thing they want is for public sector spending to be reduced and thus threaten their own jobs.
March 23, 2022
and another thing ….Almost 400 migrants were brought into Dover after crossing the Channel on Tuesday, the Home Office confirmed. Some 394 people arrived in Kent on 11 boats, including babies wrapped in blankets, while a further 467 people were intercepted by French authorities after attempting to make the journey. Crossings have taken place this week amid warm weather and calm seas.
It means 2,354 people have arrived via small boats this month, almost three times as many as March last year. The Home Office said that 213 people were rescued on six boats and brought to shore on Monday, while on Tuesday last week 405 people made the crossing – in what is thought to have been the highest daily total so far in 2022.
The number of people attempting to make the journey tends to increase during warmer and calmer weather. A lovely time of year for a ferry across the Channel courtesy of Border Force.
Tom Pursglove, minister for tackling illegal migration, said the rise in crossings was “unacceptable”.
He said Channel crossings impacted UK taxpayers, risked lives and the UK’s ability to help refugees who come to the UK via legal routes.
March 23, 2022
M T
I have given up any hope of our Government getting to grips with this problem, so I just accept that 30,000 or more a year will be taxied across the Channel and subsidised for as long as they do not bother to work, yes could be terrorists or carer criminals amongst them, but Government does not seem to care, unless and until they do us some harm, then it will be crocodile tears.
Meanwhile let us have higher taxes to pay for it all.
Useless, absolutely useless, and clueless at the same time.
March 23, 2022
Vote Leave!!!
March 23, 2022
so what action does Mr Pursglove want? He is Minister for tackling illegal migration, AFTER ALL !
March 23, 2022
Why do the Treasury and OBR get their figures so wrong – because their remit allows them too.
Both serve to enable government to avoid making the cuts to public sector expenditure that are required.
The electorate (in the constituencies that deliver governments not the safe seats) need to hear about spending and investment, they need to hear about how they will be helped. What’s in it for me? What about me? is the result of identity politics, now everyone thinks policy can be adapted to make sure their circumstances are reflected.
The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, but all governments only think three years ahead so can not wait for a rising tide to raise all ships.
The solution – truthfulness, but unfortunately that will not happen so we have to wait for a groundswell of normal people to get fed up just like we did with Leaving the EU.
March 23, 2022
Meanwhile inflation surges to a thirty year high. Did the Treasury forecast that at all whilst busying itself with being wrong about everything else?
Reply The “independent” official forecast in March 2021 said inflation this year would be 1.8% !!!
March 23, 2022
! It is frightening both that they are so wrong and that they work for us.
March 23, 2022
It is odd. Unlike most treasury civil servants, the Chancellor does have a proper formal training in financial economics and real world business experience. Odd therefore that he seems to be so under the thumb of these economically illiterate treasury orthodoxies.
By the next election we are going to have to have some tangible benefits to show from Brexit, and we are going to need to see the U.K. economy at least matching, if not outperforming the EU. So if it’s just going to be a continuous agenda of high taxes, big state dirigisme and green crap, Conservative MPs are going to have to reprise Sir John’s old 1995 slogan: no change no chance.
March 23, 2022
Could be a tad awkward, that last paragraph of yours…
March 23, 2022
It is amusing that you still think there will ever be any tangible benefits to Brexit.
March 23, 2022
There already have been benefits.
Today we were able to make taxation changes that the EU would have blocked.
PS
Best current growth of the G7
March 24, 2022
One of the worst covid19 hits from which to rebound, yes.
March 24, 2022
Not the worst on Covid and better growth than most EU nations
March 23, 2022
The Treasury wants money. Always. It has the gaping maw of a basking shark, insatiable in its constant quest for more.
March 23, 2022
It’s kind of its job. Hospitals and schools and roads and police officers and soldiers don’t pay for themselves.
March 23, 2022
Sunak’s Mais Lecture 2022. (last few paras)
“No nation has a right to lead. To a seat at the top table. It must be earned.
That’s why I’ve set out today a radically different vision of our future economy, built on a new culture of enterprise.
Not only to deliver prosperity for all our citizens. But also to advance our values on the world stage.
That’s the promise of the free market, and the greater goal of security and human happiness cannot be achieved without it.
That is what I believe.”
Ah…alright…that’s OK then…just fine….We’ll get our coats.
March 23, 2022
Its as though we’re the only one’s fighting the good fight…..or are we fighting the wrong fight, we appear to be fighting with our own policies and MPs – something is very wrong
March 23, 2022
Of course the Treasury forecasts are wrong. When have they ever been right?
March 23, 2022
The Treasury have always wanted to control this country and they stoop as low as it takes to do so. The civil servants need to be exposed and brought into the open for all to see who is damaging this country’s future.
Please name those at the top.
March 23, 2022
How can all of this be anything but deliberate?
It seems to be government policy to make forecasts as inaccurate as possible so that they can come down heavy on taxpayers, and introduce more harsh regulations.
The faulty forecasts are nothing but a justification for them to get on with their design – a strategy that is becoming clearer by the day.
March 23, 2022
This chancellor has had a macabre saving in social care costs with more than 150,000 people dying over pension age before they were expected to, this cost saving is every year for the past two years and onward savings state pension payouts if they were public sector workers their final salary pension payments, care home costs 20% down at least, plus those with other medical conditions that were more severely affected by Covid, that added to the inheritance tax revenues.
This chancellor has had around £15m in VAT that used to go to the EU in the rest of the world imports that now stay in the UK, where is that money?
Why don’t we ever hear about the extra funds he’s had to play with to help people in the UK instead of hinder them. I know people that are selling premises, cutting their hours and days of work their reason, they can’t be bothered to work their knickers off to have more than half of it taken in extra taxes left, right and centre.
But let your socialist chancellor carry on, just what conservative proposal has he made? What extra tax that he has received has he spent well because all I see is waste. labour cry about benefits reducing well how do they explain PiP rising in six years from £1.8bn to £13.5bn.
March 23, 2022
A-Tracy, I am glad you mention the VAT receipts, 80% of which used to go to the EU Commission and 20% on its administration. No-one else ever does. I would have removed the lot on exit, because the tax is alien to us and was only levied because the continentals wouldn’t pay tax; but all the political class here cares about is making sure better off people don’t benefit.
March 23, 2022
Understand that there has been a suggestion to bring back track and trace so “surplus” may not be around for long.
March 23, 2022
Does the Treasury take inflation into account when producing its forecasts or are they still
on the gold standard in budgetary terms? The additional sums due on indexed linked then would not be revaluation of principal at current cost because this concept does not exist for them, so they have to treat it as additional interest. It would explain why their forecasts are consistently too pessimistic.
March 23, 2022
Afraid Government, the Civil service, Local Authorities appear now to be completely out of control.
Why do we need futuristic computer programmes, when we have historical fact, although that may also be tainted if it has not been recorded correctly.
Government now far too involved in our lives, most people now work for the Government not themselves, given the present tax take spread.
How bloody depressing, it’s killing personal ambition, investment, and drive, together with petty laws, the curbing of free speech, and all this diversity crap.
No wonder some people cannot be bothered to go to work !
March 23, 2022
+1
Universal income is being piloted Alan. Meaning people getting money to live without working. Some young folks are being given £1600 per month not to work so why would they?
Illegal immigrants put up in four star hotels plus pocket and not allowed to work or provide community service!
What is amazing is the Javid was proud to announce as HS getting rid of detention centres! When they disappear there is no body dedicated to look for them. Javid claims it is his moral duty to provide free health care to Ukrainians even though he announced the week before the waiting lists will take longer to clear! He knows UK people will die as a consequence of his waiting lists, what an appalling attitude from the Health Secretary that he is knowingly allowing his citizens to die to provide health care for the world!
March 23, 2022
The Treasury likes austerity because it enhances their arguements for their control. From their point of view they wish to control the economy rather than allow entrepreneurial activity and enterprise to lead it. They do not discourage ministerial profligacy or even idiocy because this allows them greater control. In this socialist political shade of governance,responsibility is all too easily handed to the established so called Treasury. They in turn repeatedly confirm that they are not much good at what they are supposed to be good at.
Put simply, when in debt the bank will control you, never having themselves run a church fete. When one is in credit they have no control, and
folks that is what the Treasury is about. If you as an individual , or ministers want more control you need to remove the levers of control, in the Treasury’s case this means tax.
March 23, 2022
But The Treasury needs a big war chest for its green revolution….someone’s got to buy all those wind-turbines, subsidy the EVs and build charging stations…..the future is green
March 23, 2022
Off Topic
I see that The Palace of Westminster are re-introducing test and track for all staff given the new wave of infections.
Are us plebs out here in the big wide World also going to be able to access free tests, so that we can also do the responsible thing and test ourselves before we go to family gatherings, business meetings etc.
Under the present policy test kits are not going to be available in a week’s time.
Not concerned about tracing anyone, but would like to have the ability to continue to test, to at least try and avoid infecting others if positive.
Just out of interest those who we know who have been infected with the virus have usually tested positive for 10 days on average, which rather destroys the Governments suggestion that 5 days is enough for self isolation.
March 23, 2022
Alan. My symptoms started on Saturday but I tested negative on Saturday and early Sunday morning. However, my pcr test 2 hours later came back positive so I was spreading covid without knowing. I stayed at home as I was positive for 10 full days. It was not as bad as colds I have experienced in the past.
March 24, 2022
Rose
I have absolutely no idea if they will be available, certainly if they are, I will purchase some, but why one rule for them, and another for us ?
March 24, 2022
Oops reply to rose below.
March 24, 2022
FES
Yes most of those who we know who have had Covid tested positive for 10 days, which makes a bit of a mockery of the Governments suggestion of 5 days.
Agree, some we know have also had a mild attack, but others have been quite ill with a much longer recovery time.
March 23, 2022
Won’t you be able to buy a pack for £2 or £2.50?
March 23, 2022
Off topic, yesterday the Belfast Newsletter highlighted this Lords committee report:
https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/520/protocol-on-irelandnorthern-ireland-subcommittee/news/164985/government-needs-to-face-up-to-its-scrutiny-obligations-over-eu-legislation-applying-to-northern-ireland/
which points out that:
“Over 300 pieces of EU legislation continue to apply to Northern Ireland under the Protocol.”
Today the newspaper has printed an article by Lord Lilley headed:
“Protocol should be replaced by mutual enforcement”
opposite a letter from myself, text reproduced below, headed:
“Real aim of protocol is to fuse Northern Ireland with the RoI”
“It is constantly claimed that the purpose of the Irish protocol is to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland, but that is a lie.
The real purpose is to disrupt the existing economic integration between Northern Ireland and Great Britain and instead promote integration between the province and the Irish Republic, and the chosen mechanism for that purpose is to keep the province under EU economic control.
So not only must all the goods brought into Northern Ireland conform to EU requirements, so too must all the goods produced in the province, and to enforce that there must be checks on the latter at production and distribution sites, as well as checks on the former at points of entry.
If it was just a question of protecting the EU Single Market from non-compliant goods being carried across the land border, then it would be sufficient to apply EU checks and controls only on those exported goods, not on all the imported goods and all the locally produced goods.
So why on Earth did self-proclaimed unionist Boris Johnson go along with this transparent lie?
Because in the autumn of 2017 the Irish government made it clear, publicly, that otherwise it would veto any special trade deal between the EU and the UK.
And we saw last November how easily Boris Johnson was cowed by the threat that the EU could terminate the whole trade treaty if he activated Article 16 to suspend the operation of parts of the protocol.”
March 23, 2022
The Treasury doesn’t impose taxes and tax rises, politicians do.
March 23, 2022
Glad to see Sir John tracking the pathetic Treasury forecasts which continue to undermine the very foundations of all budgets. Seems like they need a strong dose of proven professional help as this would not be tolerated in the Private Sector.
March 23, 2022
Good Morning.
OT, but important. On this day two years ago the Coronavirus Act 2020 was passed in the House of Commons without a vote. On March 25th 2020, the Act received royal assent, granting the Government emergency powers over us all.
So in two days’ time, the Coronavirus Act 2020 will have reached its two-year time limit.
What with the rolling news on Ukraine, the landmark day of 25th March may by buried. There is indeed scope for the Act to be lengthened by six months in some reduced form or other, at the Government’s discretion.
In April, the Government intends to replace the Human Rights Act with a modern Bill of Rights. This may be a subtle way of replacing the Coronavirus Act 2020 with an act that makes individual freedom, including bodily autonomy, inferior to ‘the common good of society’. In the future this could lead to the making of a medical procedure mandatory, ‘for the common good’.
March 23, 2022
Votes are only needed when it is not clear that there is majority support.
I think that the one right that you will lose – if the Government can get away with it – is the Right To Peaceful Enjoyment Of Possessions.
March 23, 2022
The Treasury needs to fund the BEIS Net Zero Strategy and the Home Office immigration policies.
Both policies are not only leading to a financial collapse but also seriously affect our security.
Although the CCC say the transition to net zero (CO2) will be costless the Treasury are finding this is not the case and that they can no longer fund it via electricity bills necessitating the use of general taxation to fund the necessary further subsidies.
The electrification of everything without the technology to store large quantities of electricity makes us extremely vulnerable to both military and cyber attacks.
The “borders are a pain” Home Office need to fund their continued invitation into the country of illegal migrants – mostly young men of fighting age without ID.
100,000 are predicted to arrive this year which, together with previous years’ arrivals, comes to a figure not far short of the number of Russian soldiers in Ukraine and is an immense security risk.
I would not be surprised to learn that Putin and Xi are funding both AGW/Net Zero and the migrant flow as it would certainly be in their interests to do so.
March 23, 2022
It is perhaps time that all these extra Managers in the NHS, diversity officers etc on over £45,000 pa start to look at redeploying assets that are too sick to do their primary roles in public-facing roles but could perhaps work from home on other health services such as NHS 111 telephone support, mental health telephone support roles, counselling. Doctors surgery reception telephone support for their local clinics.
There must be other work from home tasks they could retrain for especially if they have been off work for over 28 weeks.
March 23, 2022
The NHS (and its unions) does not do pragmatism a-tracy.
That is for the private sector
March 23, 2022
Well SJR, I do not know why the Treasury, and for that matter, the Government wish to keep us in a state of miserableness and anxiety. I can only guess, and that it is another means of keeping us compliant, as they have been doing with deliberate fear mongering for the past two years over Covid19.
March 23, 2022
Your comments about the figures are very informative and telling, but why do you always criticise the Treasury without acknowledging that this is under the control and command of the Chancellor? If the ‘Treasury’ is publishing garbage that’s because Sunak has either told them to do so or allowed them to do so. Either way it is Sunak, the (man ed) in charge, who must bear the FULL responsibility. If YOU were in charge this wouldn’t be happening, would it? So start criticising xxxx Sunak directly. After all, he has never shown you any respect, despite you knowing much more about economics than he ever will, and never acts upon your advice. Our economic problems are due to Sunak’s stupidity, weakness and arrogance.
March 23, 2022
I’ve passed 3 petrol stations this morning and they’ve all put up the pump price between 4-5p overnight…..they’re off-setting the anticipated fuel duty cut today and robbing it from the customers
March 23, 2022
Glen
Indeed, noticed this myself
March 23, 2022
Good. Higher petrol prices means less petrol usage equals fewer missions. The now Green Tories should be praising increasing oil prices in their fight against emissions and to assist in their mission to save the planet.
You can smell it? It’s called BULLSHIT AND HYPOCRISY. It’s what transpires when REALITY smashes into the fantasy, virtue signalling, lefty crap we have to tolerate from these purveyors of woke extremism that now infect our every waking moment…..and it’s gonna get worse before it gets better unless people stop voting deceiful Tories and racist Labour..
Smash Labour’s woke extremist State and give us back our money and our freedoms before they destroy all that we love
March 24, 2022
I’d be interested to read a list of the things about this country that you “love”.
I doubt that it would take long, somehow.
March 23, 2022
Glen. It’s gone past 6pm now and many people have said the price in petrol stations are higher. What you are saying is correct.
March 23, 2022
A bit off topic.
As it is two years ago today since the first lockdown tyranny was declared, I would like to propose that 23rd March be declared Tyranny Day. A day to reflect on the tyranny of lockdowns, masks, school closures, business closures, travel restrictions etc. Then ‘vaccinations’. And the deliberate fear mongering designed to ensure that people stayed compliant. All backed by draconian legislation.
Let it never be forgotten, what damage Government with the consent of Parliament inflicted on the people of this country.
March 23, 2022
What a good idea BOF 👍
March 24, 2022
BoF, u fortunately Whitehall has still not returned, work at home very prevalent among councils. They do not want to return to work. Therefore to mark the end of tyranny might be premature when the public suffers through poor public service provision.
March 23, 2022
+100
What a brilliant idea!
March 23, 2022
I forecast JAM TOMORROW
March 23, 2022
using it with mould growing on the top?
March 23, 2022
+many
We are certainly down some bloody weird rabbit hole.
March 23, 2022
I have not voted Tory since Maggie was put to the sword and we ended up with Major. No one put themselves forward to carry out the changes we need. Boris can now leave the stage as he got us out of the E U.
If someone can push Boris and Dishy into the wilderness I could vote for them.What a task lies before them. Reselection of MP’s by their voters.Down sizing the Civil Service .Drag the NHS into the 21st centuary.Improve all transport.
March 23, 2022
How bizarre Sunak gets all the aggravation for the NI rise then backs down for 70% of people from July.
I thought people in the UK said they don’t mind paying national insurance for their healthcare and basic state pension. I read this will mean 42% of the working public not paying 1p towards healthcare in the form of national insurance. A further 15% of working people don’t have an employer NI contribution because they are self-employed. The retired will pay 1.25% over £12,500 for the first time.
How much of the total tax taken in the UK was paid across to the NHS in the £192bn pa payment? Fact Check in 2018 said ‘General taxation funds about 80% of the budget, and National Insurance contributions cover most of the rest.’ Is that the same with this proposed change from 2022? The news media really does need to make this understood by the public, national insurance doesn’t cover healthcare. I’m worried that this is why the NHS feels they can offer you whatever service they want to offer, a GP with over 6,000 patients no one says anything.
In Germany ‘statutory health insurance’ GKV, and covers the vast majority of people – around 90 per cent. The statutory general contribution rate is 14.6 percent of the contributory income, employees and empoyers share the contribution rates half and half. It seems this is for every £1 of income with no free threshold.
In England alone – In 2018/19, we raised £576 million through the prescription charge, equal to 0.5% of NHS budget, why do Scotland, Wales and N.Ireland not pay when they pay no more tax than England for this? An extra tax on the English put in by Blair but never rescinded and now increased.
to 0.5% of the NHS resource budget.11
March 24, 2022
a-tracy
I wonder how much it costs in administration to run and collect prescription charges ?
Answer, Probably more than it brings in !
March 24, 2022
alan, all the chemists probably do it for free like vat.
March 23, 2022
It’s amazing how badly the mini budget / Spring statement has been received – even by Conservative Party loyalists such as the Telegraph! Sunak has not only failed economically but politically too. The man is so stupid it is astonishing, but if I say what I think about him my comments get censored! So here, instead, are three interesting statistics:
(i) petrol has gone up by 41p since a year ago and diesel by 50p, and yet it is now only being cut by 5p, so you tell me how much better off people will feel;
(ii) 51% believe that “None of the main parties represent my priorities and values” (YouGov); and
(iii) having heard what Sunak had to say, only 13% believe the Spring statement will benefit them (either “a great deal” (2%) or “a fair amount” (11%)) while 66% believe it will not (42% “not very much” and 24% “Not at all”) (YouGov).
I cannot think of a single metric by which Sunak has been successful.
March 24, 2022
X Tory – the news reports only spell out bad news for people. There are millions of people being taken out of paying any national insurance at all from July 2022 I don’t agree with this at all. Everyone always seems to want someone else to pay.
Spending on PiP in six years has risen from £1.8bn to £13.5bn yet there is not one word about this. So some people are very much better off but keeping quiet about it.
Yesterday I read an article in the Guardian about a teacher in her 40’s from Stoke with two other little jobs and no dependents, she claimed she needed a food bank, I just call this out. I’d like her to investigate drawing down from a foodbank with three jobs! If she is a teacher living in Stoke she would have a good standard of living even without 2 extra jobs, you can still rent a 2 bed for £450 and a 1 bed for £360, she could house-share for £250 pcm live as people have to do in London.
March 24, 2022
Did you see them all waving their order papers when he sat down and Priti Useless patting him on the back?
They seem to think he is wonderful and it is they who have the votes, not the paying public. They will find out when GE time comes around and many, particularly the ‘Red Wall’ MP’s are out on their ear.
March 23, 2022
Something happened to our central heating pump and only two rads would come on. We have a wood burner ( no doubt soon to be illegal) and some electric convection type heaters.
BUT it was FREEZING.
There is much misery in store for us all I fear.
Then came the e mail from our energy supplier….
March 23, 2022
The future is green under this conservative government
March 24, 2022
Yes you can import wood (pellets) from across the Atlantic to burn in a power station to create electricity with all the associated costs and energy losses but, if you burn localy produced wood in a fire place, you are a climate murdering criminal who must be punished by being made to freeze.
Welcome to the 21st Century. Or should that be the 12th Century ?? /sarc
March 24, 2022
+1
March 24, 2022
No, people who burn wood are not criticised for damaging the climate – which generally they are not.
They are informed that the smoke produced contains harmful substances and particulates which can damage health.
It’s a different topic, and research is under way to tackle the problem.
March 24, 2022
They are criticised.
There is a campaign to ban wood burning home stoves.
March 24, 2022
Reread and understand.
March 25, 2022
You are wrong to say people who burn wood are not criticised for damaging the climate.
Wood is a fossil fuel which we are told should not be used as part of the way to stop the climate emergency.
Come on NHL get with the programme.
March 25, 2022
Sorry P2, wood is not a fossil fuel. It comes from present generation of trees. Fossil fuels refer to trees of million years ago that were transformed into coal, oil or gas through various processes linked to geology.
I know that the great Life(logic) is not able to make the difference and has called coal old wood or similar ‘interesting’ names, but he simply is wrong.
The problem with wood pellets is threefold: 1, they are likely to be imported, leading to the use of some fossil fuels when transported by ships; 2, burning the wood pellets releases the CO2 that had been absorbed when the trees were growing (an essentially neutral operation in terms of CO2 budget but only if the trees were to be immediately replaced, which is not the case as it takes years to grow a tree, therefore creating a time imbalance between the source and sink of CO2 linked to those trees; 3, as pointed out by NHL, burning trees also produced smoke, ie carbonaceous particulates, and if combustion is incomplete is likely to produce some Volatile Organic Compounds (that have been shown to cause (eye, lung) irritation in some people).
And yes, because of that pollution, particularly visible in hilly areas where wood burning is used and under temperature inversion conditions smoke remains in the ‘valleys’ for hours, wood burners are now often heavily criticised.
So, one point each to P2 and NHL.
March 24, 2022
Some of the extra revenue is due to inflation. Inflation will also push up public expenditure.
March 24, 2022
the treasury d so to create a feeling we must rejoin the EU.
Sunak is an economic illiterate, his career was in ‘managing’ his family’s assets.
Which economic theory, Classical, Monetarist, Keynesian or Marxist, requires an increase in taxation when recovering from a recession/ A recession moreover which was not cyclical but induced through governemnt measure to Lock Down the economic and social activity of the nation allegedly to stop the spread of a disease which had a negligible mortality rate.
March 24, 2022
+10
March 24, 2022
One has to consider that policy is driven entirely by matters such as “net zero” and the desire of some in government to submit to the globalists. Too many people dismiss their policies as conspiracy theories even when they are openly published such as the UN’s crazy population reduction targets. To hell with our needs!
March 24, 2022
Dear Sir John, I have to ask why are you not in the cabinet? I am not an economists but you appear to know what you are talking about.
Does this Government and previous Governments ever listen to what you say ?
Modern day Politics and most Politicians seem completely out of touch with what most people want – peace and security. Basically a job and can afford gas, water, electricity, food and not getting into wars with other countries if they are not actually attacking us or even a clear threat to us.
We seem to find money out of the blue to spend £billions on supplying other countries with weapons but run down our own military, police, and rescue services etc. UK lives matter just as much as the lives of the rest of the World.
In fact the UK Government is supposed to put the security of it’s own citizens. above all others. This does not mean we ignore suffering in other countries but all suffering must be dealt with on an equal basis and aid given according to actual need rather than Political view/advantage.
Please to see you on Talking Pints recently 🙂
March 24, 2022
0.56GW at 1935. Convene a COBRA meeting and make everyone look at Gridwatch Templar.
JF