This is my latest Conservative Home article.
SinceĀ March 2021Ā I have been telling the Treasury that their forecasts were far too gloomy. They underestimated growth, understated tax revenues and wrongly ballooned the likely level of borrowing. I was not surprised when the Chancellor had to report much better news and confess how wrong the budget forecasts had been , though even I was surprised that the latest figures just before the 2021-2 year end show that they borrowedĀ an almost unbelievable Ā£105,000 million less than planned! Keeping tax rates down, cutting Stamp duty and going for growth produced a much stronger economy than they expected. The extra tax revenues poured in thanks to more spending and more housing transactions.
So why change a winning formula? Why did the Chancellor fail to stress the successes and turn instead to more gloomy forecasts? Why did he think these meanĀ he had to put National Insurance up, freeze Income tax thresholds and get ready for a huge increase in company tax rates next year? Once again we were treated to some bizarre figurework from the OBR and Treasury. Clearly upset by how much better the revenues were than expected theyĀ presented the costs of servicing the state debt in aĀ new way designed to sensationalise it . It looked as if theyĀ hope that the government would be panicked into tax rises in the name of debt control. They decided to add to the legitimate and affordable cash costs of paying interest on the outstanding debts to savers and other investors theĀ nonĀ cash costs of the indexation of the index linked debt. This only becomes a liability on maturity of anyĀ given bond and will simply be refinanced by rolling over the realĀ value of the debt when it comes due. They did not put any offsetting figures into the account to show how much the state will benefit from the high inflation the Bank has now created or allowed, as itĀ will reduce the real costs of refinancing or paying back the majority ofĀ the debt that is not index linked.
The government needs to understand that the cost of living crisis is going to be difficult for many people. It needs to do more to offset the effects of runaway energy price inflation, rising food costs and price hikes in a wide range of other goods and services. This is not the time to be taking more money off people through a National Insurance hike. It is not the time to insist on VAT on domestic fuel. It is the time to be more generous in offering a cut in petrol and diesel taxation which otherwise will rake in far more revenue than the original plans. Given the magnitude of the official forecasts for the hit to real incomesĀ now coming the Treasury should at least have given back more than 1% of GDP. This was eminently affordable given the great performance of the public finances over the most recent year. Instead the Chancellor spent less than 0.5% of GDP in tax remission, leaving most of his revenue windfall untouched.
The danger now is of the opposite effects. The hit to real incomes will slow growth. Many people will be unable to afford discretionary goods and services after they have met the food and energy bills. The fast recovery of health output credited to the state last year on the back of free test programmes and massive roll out of vaccines will slow dramatically. Higher taxes will knock confidence and higher inflation will worry consumers. The economy is going to slow sharply. Instead then of a revenue bonanza from better than expected growth we will experience a slowdown in extra tax receipts. More people will qualify for top up benefits and income support. The Treasury will learn the hard way that higher taxes can lead to bigger deficits and fewer good options for economic policy.
The official figures tell us that tax as a percentage of national income was at 33% in 2019 and will be at 36.2% by the end of this Parliament. That is a substantial rise in the tax proportion. It comes from the upwards movement of rates for companies, the freezing of personal allowances and the introduction of the National Insurance/socialĀ care tax proposals. It will cut the growth rate and lower average take home pay. It will damage private sector investment, which is already disappointing despite the offer of a temporary super allowance. Businesses look at the coming hike in company tax rates and are put off.
I am glad the Chancellor wants to be a tax cutting Chancellor and admires Nigel Lawson who definitely was a tax cutting Chancellor. He slashed the rates of Income Tax and company tax and the extra money rolled in as a result. It would be a great policy to follow now. People want to know the government is on their side at a time of income squeeze. They will see that external events haveĀ created strong upward pressures on oil and gas prices and may understand government cannot protect us from all such pressures. They will be less understanding of why at the same time the government shifted from a successful relatively low rate of tax policy to higher tax rates. They will blame the government for taking money away that they need to pay the higher bills.
As the Treasury needs more revenue they need to help the private sector grow the economy to deliver the extra cash. They already get a windfall tax on home produced oil and gas in the form of a doubled corporation tax rate on such activities. They should make extracting more oil and gas at home a high priority with every government assistance to get it done. That will bring in a lot of extra revenue as well more well paid jobs. Then the Treasury needs to be more positive in support of domestic process industry which is struggling to stay alive against the background of such elevated energy costs. That too could be a net win on revenues.Ā I will urge the government again to dump the gloomy Treasury fiscal rules and substitute just two key aims and controls. One should be to take the 2% inflation target seriously. That means the Treasury helping government do more to eliminate supply bottlenecks at home. The other should be aĀ growth target to galvanise public policy to support expansion of jobs and investment.
We need an update on the Spring Statement urgently. It would be better to head off the worst of the income squeeze before it sets in and people have to pay the high bills.
April 5, 2022
Good morning.
Sorry, off topic.
Today we in England go to the polls. All I will say is, this is probably our last great chance to express how we feel about this government, the governing party, and its leader.
A government that oversees huge increases in the costs of energy and the overal cost of living due to policies (it is not down to war in Ukraine or Covid) around a trace gas that does little harm and, even if it did, our overal production of it does not justify the measures proposed.
Please, do not waste this oppotunity.
Thanks
April 5, 2022
Oh **** it’s May, not April š how embaressing.
April 5, 2022
Mark. At least we’ve been given plenty of notice. I wish I could vote but our area has no local election this year.
April 5, 2022
Same here, no voting but I really hope this pathetic out of touch Socialist fake Conservative Government/party gets the thumping it deserves. If only it were a general election.
April 5, 2022
The problem we have is that people vote for either Labour or the Lib Dems who are worse. Until people start voting for an alternative like Reform nothing will change as all the main parties have the same stupid policies. I really don’t understand the thinking of British voters.
April 5, 2022
Agree Christine. I will be voting for Reform. Labour and the Lib Dums are even worse than the current lot and thatās saying something.
April 6, 2022
We are having a referendum on getting rid of our mayor. I wish they’d do that in the major Devocracies.
April 5, 2022
Oh lol!
I had a few nasty moments then!!!
Never mind ā¦keep telling us. Keep reminding us please.
And I will add.
Do not forget what they have done.
And do not forgive!
April 5, 2022
JR questions the necessity of impoverishing and denuding us.
It is to get support for the war.
1984 two minutes hate. Blame the enemy for tax rises and food shortages etc.
Advice from an old hand maybe? They donāt want millions marching this time?
Maybe they hope that the plague exhausted and demoralised and DIVERTED us enough?
Sorry about ruining your little lives.
It was the enemy what done it! 1914/1939 yet still we believeā¦..
April 5, 2022
I know my MP won’t speak to me and thought for a moment I’d been struck off the voting register as well!!
April 5, 2022
+1
Mine neither.
Not a dicky bud ā¦neāer a whisper, leaflet nor e mail!
Certainly no foot on the doorstep! Wonder why?
I just pray to God that what few decent ones we have wonāt let us be propaganda lied into a nuclear war!
April 5, 2022
Mine neither. Not answering my question either.
April 5, 2022
JRās party is for high tax, big state waste and has an unquenchable thirst for mass immigration. Cultural Marxism promoted through police, Local Authorities, BBC propaganda arm of govt and public services.
Johnson has not got the courage or guts to scrap the N.Ireland protocol allowing EU to take over part of our country without so much as a murmur but is eager to pretend he is strong against Russia when others face the bullets. He does not have the moral fibre to resign after breaking his own draconian covid rules while others could not say good bye to loved ones. His chaotic misfit private life now runs through govt. does JR and chums have the courage to oust him?
All the policy failures are everyoneās elseās fault not the party or govt.
April 6, 2022
embarrassing.
April 5, 2022
It will be May 2023 here.
April 5, 2022
Its sad that after my many years following politics my decision to whom I should vote for is no longer based upon party policiesā¦.my voting is now based on who I believe is honest and whoāll satisfy their manifesto
April 5, 2022
glen cullen
You are sure as hell not alone on that one pal. Everytime it gets harder.
April 6, 2022
so – short straws is it? Or even save on the trip to the Polling place?
April 6, 2022
defo vote – but would perfer to vote for an honest party
April 5, 2022
Local elections, local issues. I will be voting to keep our excellent Conservative Council in charge
April 5, 2022
The chancellor did these things because he’s inthrall to the WEF.
He’s a lightweight who couldn’t make the grade in the USA so he’s now working for Klaus.
Nothing he has done is remotely conservative and looking at yesterdays poll on the cabinet voters are beginning to notice.
April 5, 2022
Ian Wragg,
Agreed. The mistake is assuming that any of this is done for the benefit of the people of this country.
Itās not just the chancellor of the exchequer either. They all make their plans around ideas that originate with the globalists. Boris Johnson is just as bad – The Great Reset, Net Zero etc.
Not that Sunak cares anyway. His wife is worth a fortune.
April 5, 2022
100% agree
April 6, 2022
Unworthy. There were plenty of very rich men in the Thatcher Cabinet, some self made and some hereditary. It didn’t dull their wits or their drive.
April 5, 2022
+many
Very likely.
They rule us through fear and they obey because they are too frit not to.
I wonder if Mrs T is watching ?
And it struck me the other day that the poll tax wasnāt such a bad idea after all.
April 5, 2022
The community charge was so much fairer. Everyone paid their share and paid the same for the same services unlike the grossly unfair system we have now where itās based purely on the value of your house and takes no account of income or ability to pay. Mrs. T was on the ball and believed in fairness unlike the the current bunch of out of touch incompetents.
April 5, 2022
+1
Agree!
April 5, 2022
You complain that Council Tax is unfair because it takes no account of ability to pay, yet the Poll Tax was exactly the same in that regard.
April 5, 2022
Yet Council Tax can be a few thousands on one home
Community Charge was a just a few hundreds on one person
April 5, 2022
My rates on my first house were Ā£43 per year.
Poll tax was Ā£400 per person. Four adults living there would have been Ā£1,600 pa.
It’s easy to see why there were riots.
A tax on simply existing.
April 5, 2022
Under the Community Charge, you would pay for what you used. Which didn’t suit those who wanted a free ride.
April 5, 2022
I see what you did here P2. The Community Tax WAS in 1987, Council Tax CAN BE in 2022, thatās 35 years later during which the prices have increased by three.
So tell me, what would have been the level of Community Tax in 2022?
April 5, 2022
That was over 30 years ago. Council Tax was only a few hundreds per house when it was introduced and look at how it has gone up in its history. You don’t think that the Poll Tax would have gone up in a similar manner, especially with the way central government has cut support grants to local government? Local authorities would still have needed to raise the same total income either way.
April 5, 2022
It reflects what one person costs the local economy.
But socialists always want someone else to pay for them.
April 6, 2022
Martin – 4 adults living there SHOULD rate 4 * the charge – or did they doss about not working?
April 6, 2022
hef
You need to scale it to earnings at the time community charge was set to what they are today.
Ditto with earnings or property prices for Council tax/rates.
Local services have to be paid for one way or another.
April 6, 2022
“Peter2
It reflects what one person costs the local economy.
But socialists always want someone else to pay for them.”
Absolute rubbish. Over 60% of Wokingham Council’s budget goes on Adult (39%) and Children’s (22%) social care and, as a Wokingham Council Tax payer, I make zero use of either of those.
April 6, 2022
I didn’t comment on what the money raised was spent on Peter
So your post is nonsense.
April 7, 2022
@Peter2, you used the word “costs”, sp that’s exactly what your comment refers to.
April 5, 2022
So someone in a one-bedroom 60 sq m flat on the 12th floor in Hackney or Croydon would pay the same as one living in a 10-acre property with a 350 sq m house, stable, paddock, swimming pool, orchard, yard and some area of woodland in Devon.
Indeed, EH, JB, ānot such a bad idea after allā!
April 5, 2022
Because it is based on property values.
What difference in costs to the local authority would your two examples create?
April 5, 2022
Sorry P2, as so often you take the spoon by the wrong end. And you think youāre clever doing it.
April 5, 2022
No real argument there heffy.
Try again.
April 5, 2022
Indeed it wasnāt!
Iāve had enough of socialism.
April 5, 2022
Certainly Sunak is not remotely a Conservative. Another tax borrow and piss down the drain, PPE dope. A regulate to death pusher of expensive & intermittent energy too. Clearly a deluded socialist and one who does not even know what a woman is.
But his real reason is surely so he can cut taxes in 2024 and promise more cuts in the Manifesto of 2024. It they win they/he will then rat on it yet again just as he did comprehensively with the 2020 tissue of lies. What the dope does not seem to realise is that tax rises from the current position will deter and export jobs and investment and so raise less tax not more. We still do not have the Ā£1m IHT tax threshold as promised by the appalling Osborne many years ago – they do this manifesto lies/promises fraud time and time again.
April 5, 2022
āDrainā and āPPEā next to one another, the very essence of a Lifelogic post.
April 5, 2022
Indeed – accuracy, relevance and truth!
April 5, 2022
It is not so much the tax levels as a % of GDP that matter as the amount the government are spending as a % of GDP (then making the rest up with borrowing) last year it was about 48% of GDP and it was largely spent appallingly inefficiently and mainly on thing of little or no value to the public. Net zero, test and trace, renewables, EV subsidies, HS2, mainly worthless degree student loansā¦
April 5, 2022
correct lifelogic, they should have people like you and me advising them, they are clearly clueless and surrounding themselves with the same group think idiots
April 5, 2022
We are again exporting 2gw of electricity to France
How is this possible when we should be conserving gas.
I think we are subsidising the French consumers
April 5, 2022
The whole system is bonkers
April 5, 2022
Ian Wragg :
I don’t know because I do not know where to access the data.
But it could be even be “selling” electricity to France at negative prices because this is cheaper than paying windmills constraint payments.
April 5, 2022
I see Telford and Wrekin and amazingly Shropshire missed out on any extra money for public transport. This is diabolical. Our bus service is dismal to say the least. It’s a very rural county and the bus services in the villages are practically non existent. Meanwhile West Sussex which includes areas such as Worthing have a brilliant bus service now with buses every 10 mins. They have received extra funding. There is no end to this governments incompetence.
April 5, 2022
+1
Oh give me a busless shack atop the Long Mynd.
With a few chickens and a dog.
The winberries and the silence bar the tick of springs, the sheep and the little streams.
(Or have the governing vandals ruined all that now?)
Stiper Stones, Carding Mill Valley, Burway.
Away from all this cruelty and filth.
April 5, 2022
EV. Ha ha. Yes it’s beautiful and the only thing that could ruin life here is wind farms and owning no car because public transport is dire. The Long Mynd is still stunning but don’t tell everyone!
April 5, 2022
+1
No indeed. I will keep it under my hat.
I hear that quite enough get up there now!
April 5, 2022
Yes, keep buses away from the Mynd, and the carloads of foreigners coming to Carding Mill Valley!
April 5, 2022
+1
Agree 100%
April 5, 2022
Have you just composed a new verse to “A Shropshire Lad”?
April 5, 2022
+1
Lol
Thereās a thought! š¤
April 5, 2022
For buses to work cost effectively you need a certain population density. No point in running a bus for only two or three people who want to go A to B at any particular time as cars & even shared taxis are cheaper to run than buses.
Perhaps non car drivers have to wait for cheap driverless taxis to arrive! Or buy electric bikes/trikes or mobility scooters.
April 5, 2022
That’s what we are all afraid of. No car and having to ride a scooter at 80.
April 5, 2022
Driverless taxis could be very cheap I suppose – as most of the cost of taxis is the driver but rather a few years off yet!
April 6, 2022
mind you it could be fun – seeing the people scatter when they realise we are old, possibly poor sighted, and a bit deaf ! We must get our laughs somehow.
April 7, 2022
FuS, that’s why my Aunt sold up and moved to a retirement flat in the centre of a seaside town with lots of local amenities a main shopping centre a walk away and a doctor a stroll away. She loved it but didn’t like how much the annual charges were getting out of control. The flats are also worth much less than they were when they bought them.
April 5, 2022
The funding plan isn’t based upon need its based on carrot & stick….following the government line (like the regional mayors and police commissioners)
April 5, 2022
The answer is probably that, just like here, it is very rural so they have few voters to worry about, and care more for the urban conurbations where more people live. You will note that even with the so called levelling up sham, they will only be talking about major towns and cities, the rural population as always don’t count. LL, how do you know only 2 or 3 people in Fedups villages want a bus? Surely chicken and egg – supply begets demand, but they never try it. Known bus times on regular routes (don’t have to be every ten minutes or huge double deckers) may produce the customers. How do you share a taxi when you don’t know who is going or when? Phone round the entire village/county? Taxis will never be cheap and charge extortionate rates for relatively small journeys in the countryside .Windmills, endless subsidy, transport, can’t do that as it might help the lower orders.
April 5, 2022
Graham. You are right. Many of us would love to use the bus more often to go into our city and local towns if only to save on parking. As you say, if they just put on a mini bus it would suffice.
April 6, 2022
The locals should get together and use car/minibus sharing – using local clubs, apps, IT to coordinate.
April 7, 2022
It’s so sad in the UK that people are so fractured and alone and neighbourly areas have disappeared as Councils took over. You’d think a large local supermarket/shopping centre would co-ordinate a small minibus on a dial and ride.
April 5, 2022
Sir John, I agree with your comments. Conservatives … the party of low taxation. Words fail me!
Should we put these utter and complete government failures down to incompetence, or deliberate damage to our economy? If you, I, and mostly everyone else can see where he is going wrong, then why cannot Sunak?
I have to assume it is deliberate, but for what purpose? I suppose it makes no odds, because whatever money the government gets in taxes, it will go in the direction of other countries and the uninvited guests and anything else that makes Boris feel good and massages his ego. The Brits are captive cash cows, just as we were with the EU. He thinks the dire state of Labour will save him at the elections. He is in for a big shock. People expect financial incompetence from Labour, but not from the Conservatives!
April 5, 2022
I agree with your point on the money going elsewhere.
It’s funny that we spend millions on upgrading other countries infrastructures (of course not all of it goes where it should either) while our roads are crumbling underneath us. That’s just one example.
Tired of hearing how we don’t have the money for this or that, then reading how much goes to X, Y and Z abroad and how much money gets wasted here on vanity projects and politically correct appointments/schemes.
April 5, 2022
The party that at elections always claim to be the party of low taxation and financial competence – but never delivers either – they get away this it as the Labour/SNP alternative is clearly even worse. In FPTP voting you have no other choices really. People vote for the least worse of the two appalling options.
April 5, 2022
Not only do they deliver very high taxes they also deliver dire and declining public services too. Healthcare, schools, most degrees, poor roads, poor public transport, totally misdirected police (who now want to work from home it seems), a devalued currency, a very poor court system (see the many Post Office innocent convictions) civil actions and landlord tenant actions dire too.
April 5, 2022
So get rid of FPTP voting and give people a real choice, a real say and a real vote.
April 5, 2022
Which of the many PR systems do you prefer?
April 5, 2022
Single Transferable Vote (as currently used in Scottish local elections and all Northern Irish elections except Westminster, as well as in the Republic of Ireland) aka “British PR”.
With STV you get to vote for individuals (just as with FPTP) who become representatives of an individual constituency (just as with FPTP). The voters also get to express their choice between a party’s candidates (which is why some of the parties don’t like it as it takes away control from them).
There’s no party lists involved, nor any regional top ups (as used for the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly and London Assembly), so no two classes of representative either.
April 5, 2022
Shirley, I think there can only be one of three explanations. One, that he is not up to the job and does not understand it all and relies on the OBR and Treasury, two that he just doesn’t care what ordinary people go through as he has no understanding of living on Ā£140 a week (less than half the price of his trainers), or three that he is saving up for a con merchant tax cut before the next election expecting the public to have amnesia.
April 5, 2022
Scholar. There’s a conveyor belt of these types of Socialist Mandarins. That belt needs dismantling. It starts at Oxbridge.
April 5, 2022
I think it starts long before Oxbridge …. in their Champagne Socialist homes and private schools.
I doubt if any of them went to “a bog-standard comprehensive” in a northern working class town.
April 5, 2022
Alas for the useless chancellor to take Mr. Redwoodās points he would have to admit he is wrong. Completely wrong. And he wonāt do this. Maybe heās a Labour plant. Because āitās the economy, stupidā.
I am not hard up. I am not wealthy. I am comfortable. I am already driving less, driving for economy when I do drive and, as a consequence, am spending less when I am out. I note that a pint of bitter has just gone back up to Ā£4.50 in my local pub – as the 20p tax reduction has ended. I wonāt pay that for an occasional pint when out walking the dog – Iād rather buy 4 pints for Ā£6 in a supermarket.
If Iām typical it wonāt just be people who are struggling who cut down on their spending.
April 5, 2022
Many pensioners are already panicking about the cost of living. They are afraid to heat their homes. I hate to think this way, but the cruelty of the government reminds of ‘culling’, where the old and the ill are removed to make room for the younger and fitter livestock and wildlife. Why else would they be so generous to the uninvited guests and so mean to pensioners who live in the UK legally? Is the government telling us that crime and gatecrashing does pay and being a good little taxpayer guarantees nothing but deprivation?
ps. I do not fear for myself as I can afford to live as I choose, but I fear for the health and well being of others.
April 5, 2022
They spent Ā£billions trying to prevent “granny” from dying with Covid. And now appear to be perfectly happy to see thousands die from a combination of malnutrition and cold since they won’t be able to afford to feed themselves properly or heat their homes.
But then, we won’t see the Brothers Grim on the TV every day telling us how many have died as a result of the Government’s tax/energy policies, so it doesn’t matter.
April 5, 2022
I regret to say I think you’re wrong, about poor granny. You may recall that the hospitals were emptied of grannies, sent to care facilities with or without covid because they weren’t tested. That was government policy. As a result the government designed cull of the elderly occured as planned to reduce spending on care and pensions. I warned of this 2 years ago. The Tory party, as it is now, is not fit for government.
April 5, 2022
+1 Peter. Unfortunately, those are my thoughts too. Too horrific for words, but culling keeps coming to my mind too. Especially knowing the difficulties in getting GP appointments, hospital treatment, or even an ambulance. It’s a very risky business getting ill (or homeless) in the UK of today … unless you are an immigrant/refugee/anyone but a Brit and you will get pushed to the front of every queue.
April 6, 2022
Actually no, two thirds of nursing homes had no infection and those that did got it mostly from the staff going in and out, especially agency staff serving several institutions. It was the same pattern on the Continent. But yours makes a good story and has been taken up enthusiastically by just about everyone I know. The power of the MSM.
By the way, did you know that doctors discharge patients from hospital individually? It isn’t done by PMs or even Health Secretaries.
Your popular little fable has done a great deal of harm by inducing the risk averse authorities to keep residents of nursing homes isolated.
April 5, 2022
Shirley
Agreed, we all know the cost of living has gone up hugely, the Governments cost of living figures are just a farce.
Just the very basics like, Gas, electricity, and oil up over 50%, petrol and diesel up over 50%, food at least 25% and still rising, many building materials up 50-100% with shortages and delay in supply.
Interest rates now increasing.
Taxes up due to fiscal drag, static personal allowances.
To help compensate:
State pensions up just over 3% due to scrapping of the triple lock, minuscule increases in Benefits, a rise in the minimum wage, and a 5 pence reduction in fuel duty.
With interest rates still well below a normal average historic level and rising, the future looks desperate for millions of families, including those who are in low/average pay, and in full employment.
This cost of living crisis, and that is what it is, a crisis, is now affecting people and couples in full time work !
Thanks John for trying to highlight the situation with the Government directly, but how many other Conservative MP”S are doing the same, clearly not enough to make a difference ?
Local elections should be about the performance of the local Councils, but I think the national situation will scupper that.
April 5, 2022
The May local elections are going to hurt this government and in response theyāll say itās a mid-term blip and probably erect a few more wind-turbines to placate the media
April 5, 2022
Shirley, I’m so glad I work full time, I had a day at home last week and the constant and relentless panic on tv on every station must leave pensioners at whits end even if they’re managing. After a couple of hours of tv on in the background, I called my parents to check they weren’t getting affected by the doom and gloom and they said, “oh we don’t watch tv news programs during the day anymore”.
April 5, 2022
@a-tracy
I’m retired so I am at home full time. I don’t watch the TV or listen to the radio. My wife listens to LBC on her phone – if she has it playing through the speaker instead of into a earpiece, I leave the room. Why would anyone want their head filled with depressing crap about Ukraine, climate insanity and the cost of living. I prefer to shut it out.
April 5, 2022
Ben Aris,the Berlin-based editor of Business New Europe has just tweeted out a picture of the empty shelves at his local supermarket.
“Local German Supermarket.No oil.No flour.”
Coming here?
April 5, 2022
The EU mapped out ārolesā for each european country and the WEF mapped out ārolesā for every world countryā¦.we need to be self sufficient for all our needs and ignore the EU, UN & WEF
April 6, 2022
That was the logic of the Soviet Union/Warsaw Pact bloc economic planning-specialisation by member republic.It was also a feature of the Austro-Hungarian empire(although,there, probably more by chance than design).Causes terrible problems when the bloc collapses/is dissolved.
April 5, 2022
Mitcheldean. Quite possibly. At the moment goods like this are going up.in price quickly but I fully expect shortages.
April 5, 2022
Shirley M
To think it is this exact demographic that we sacrificed the economy to save from Covid. Yet we allow them to die of hypothermia and that’s OK ?
April 5, 2022
Indeed “he would have to admit he is wrong. Completely wrong. And he wonāt do this.” Ditto for this governments insane expensive intermittent energy, job and industry exporting net zero lunacy! and their evil net damage Covid Vaccination of children agenda.
April 5, 2022
I’m with you there Mike. We have cut down on everything even though we could afford to carry on as usual. Our house still needs upgrading and if we spend as normal it will take longer to save for all the alterations still needed. Oh, and the useless heat pumps and EVs.
April 5, 2022
We could cut down on the number of illegal immigrants crossing the channel daily
April 5, 2022
Inflation aside, how much debt will will repay as a result of these measures? None, we will continue to borrow.
Therefore the question must be asked what is the money really being spent on? And do we really need to spend it?
The tax rise, ostensibly for the NHS, is political to show that the Conservatives value to the NHS. If they really value it they will stop paying it for being and start paying it for doing with an invoicing system based on activity not existence.
The eco-lunacy is also political.
Evidently elections are not won by appealing to core voters. Hence in National elections I shall be registering none of the above until someone values my vote. My local Conservatives do value my vote and run excellent local services with only the London Mayor’s precept wasted.
April 5, 2022
Alas you local Conservative will suffer due to the Boris Sunak manifesto ratting, vast tax increases, frozen allowances, the pointless extended lockdowns and expensive intermittent energy agenda.
April 5, 2022
They and they alone dispite all the advice and suggestions that are on offer have created the situation where they are frightened if their own shadows. They are clueless in so many critical areas and it is those that are freezing them in the headlights of reality. They are adrift with no power, no rudder and a incompetent crew and the weather in the form of the electorate will destroy them. Daily on a regular basis you hear ” in all my years never known nothing like it” They are running out of time and space to manoeuvre and they will not do anything as they’re terrified of having to admit they are wrong.
Tackle all the waste the real waste, drop all the fear driven ideas like Net Zero, stop playing on the world stage and concentrate on home and go back to basics.
April 5, 2022
Have we not been through enough to know that, whoever their masters actually are, this government tries to rule through fear?
They are not on our side.
They have been told to take what we have.
Everything.
April 5, 2022
I donāt remember the UN or WEF being on the ballot paper so why does our government follow there instruction rather than ours
April 5, 2022
+1
They totally disregard us in any decisions they take.
We donāt count. We are a bit of a hindrance with all our ideas of democracy.
And we probably wonāt survive their treatment of us!
April 5, 2022
Your comments about debt interest and the chancellorās inability/ unwillingness to challenge his advisors on this, sums up this government. No regard for the real interests of the poorest in our country and certainly not for the āsqueezed middleā, a phrase never mentioned anymore. Instead the person running the country prefers to talk about floating wind farms, the ultimate in fiddling while Rome burns.
April 5, 2022
“Why change a winning formula?” Indeed. So why privatise Channel 4? It’s doing very well without the government interfering
Reply Long term decline of revenues and commissioning
April 5, 2022
We don’t believe you John.
We think that it is about doing to the UK’s media what Orban has done to Hungary’s.
April 5, 2022
Yet the proposal is to break the link between the TV company and the State.
They will be free to run their company as they wish.
April 5, 2022
“They” will be free to run it as the private power, the capital that owns it wishes, like the UK’s “newspapers” etc.
April 5, 2022
So when the State owns it you don’t like it.
Then when they are in the private sector you don’t like it.
Maybe if Mr Marx or Mr Lenin were to own it you would be happy?
April 6, 2022
Thanks, binary brain.
April 6, 2022
Descent to abuse when challenged and you realise your argument is flawed.
Pathetic NHL
April 6, 2022
They are selling it off away from state control. Orban is doing the complete reverse!
April 6, 2022
you keep saying we …who are ‘we’?
April 5, 2022
I hear they want to sell to Americans. Just think what we’ll get then, just like the 900 odd channels of tripe on subscription satellite tv.
April 5, 2022
Indeed.
April 5, 2022
Really? Evidence please, and where does the revenue go?
April 5, 2022
Wishful thinking. You continue to maintain that politicians are in charge. I read comments from an ex senior mandarin recently basically saying politicians we ignore you. We are the permanent glue, you are temporary.
Either Sunak and Johnson agree with the Treasury or are too weak to take them on. Billions un recovered due to fraud so letās hit the struggling hospitality industry with a VAT increase. Similarly Patel where we see the latest bureaucracy scandal re Ukraine refugees. Decades of misery and continuing in maternity wards with nothing changing, poor attempts to recruit more cancer specialists to improve performance, more money handed over without any plans and so it goes on.
Thank you to the correspondent who said we should use the ballot box to send a clear message. Indeed. You deserve an electoral spanking.
April 5, 2022
Your strictures will be ignored as usual. This is the worst government and parliament in my lifetime and I have lived through many bad ones.
April 5, 2022
Yes, I have the impression that each government is worse than the last. We had all sorts of Labour nonsense in the 1960s and 1970s and Ted Heath, Callaghan, Thatcher, Major, Blair – all of those (with the exception of Margaret, of course) were awful, but then we had Brown. Could it get worse? Yes it could! Step forward ‘bonfire of the QUANGOs’ Cameron. He bottled it as soon as the referendum went against him so we got May. I think it is wrong to be rude about a woman so I will say nothing. And then, just when you thought the bottom of the barrel had been well and truly scraped – something from under the barrel was found. This current government is, without doubt – and there is no room for argument, the worst in anyone’s living memory – by a country mile. On the other hand, look at the competition. What a choice. The devil or the deep, blue sea.
April 5, 2022
Has this govt. has read 1984?
It wants a long drawn out war to keep us all fearful and compliant.
It wants an excuse for the great reset and the transfer of wealth.
It arms the far right ( Heappey admitted) yet hounds right wing ideology at home.
April 5, 2022
*
Has this govt. read 1984?
April 5, 2022
Each of Eric Blair’s(George Orwell) novels – 1984, Animal Farm, Road to Wigan Pier etc convey a stark message, a warning of the road ahead.
April 5, 2022
+1
April 5, 2022
+1
He wasnāt wrong.
Reckon weāre nearing the end of said road!
April 6, 2022
Particularly apt at the moment:
“Oceania was at war with Eurasia:therefore,Oceania had always been at war with Eurasia.The enemy of the moment always represented absolute evil,and it followed that any past or future agreement with him was impossible.”
April 5, 2022
Did anyone else see the cringeworthy propaganda film No.10/Johnson put out yesterday about Ukraine, complete with gloomy music to “set the mood” for us like a 1950s war film? (It was shown on the Mike Graham Talk Radio show.)
Johnson obviously considers that the Ukraine War will be his “Falklands” and will have the same result on his sinking Government. Why, almost as soon as they’re elected, do our Prime Ministers forget the problems they were elected to address in the UK and immediately want to strut around the world stage pretending to be Churchill?
As for Sunak – he is presiding over a Gordon Brown Treasury. The only thing they know how to do is Tax, Borrow, Print and Squander. Until there is a complete overhaul of the senior personnel working there, including Sunak, nothing will change.
This Government has no real understanding of the backlash which is coming its way.
April 5, 2022
If we are going for a continental-style high tax, high regulation economy with a dirigiste bent towards intervention and subsidies, then there really was no point to Brexit, and there wonāt be anything to show for it to counter the obvious downsides (the NI tensions, travel restrictions, damaged EU trade etc). Conservative MPs can place some trust in the uselessness and humbug of Sir Keir Starmer and most of those surrounding him, but I donāt think we can rely only on that to carry the next election, the way we were able to with corbyn.
We need to see a radical change of direction towards free market, free trade liberalism with tax cuts and regulatory reform, at the very latest by the autumn budget. Otherwise there needs to be a change at the top.
April 5, 2022
How nice to see the government deciding to sell off the Channel For Filth. That’ll further reduce the deficit.
April 5, 2022
I like Channel Four. As someone who refuses to buy a BBC Licence, I watch a fair bit of streamed content from Channel 4 – particularly the world drama from Walter Presents. Do they get a lump of the licence fee? If so, I am disappointed if they are no longer going to get it. I like to occasionally in life get something for nothing. It doesn’t happen often.
April 5, 2022
and on the subject of squeeze –
Shirley, 56, was diagnosed with cancer in both breasts six years ago.
One side was stage three – classed as a late diagnosis – and deemed to be a much more aggressive cancer. It therefore requires careful, ongoing monitoring even after completion of her initial treatment.
Shirley continues to take drugs to reduce the chances of the cancer returning, and had been receiving regular six-monthly check-ups and yearly mammograms. But those follow-up appointments stopped when the pandemic hit.The stage at which a cancer is diagnosed can make a huge difference to a patient’s chances of survival.
For example, 90% of people diagnosed at stage one for bowel cancer live for a further five years, compared to just 10% of those diagnosed at stage four.
The cross-party group of MPs said the push to improve early cancer diagnosis was being undermined by long waiting times and disruption caused by the pandemic.
Currently, the NHS is failing to hit its target to start treatment within two months of an urgent referral.
Moreover, three million fewer people were invited for screening during the pandemic than would have been expected – an essential route for the early detection of cancer.
This combination of factors has led to a drop in cancer diagnoses over the past two years – with an estimated 45,000 missed cases across the UK.
April 6, 2022
MT
These delay’s were going on long before covid struck, friend of ours diagnosed with Prostate cancer, he asked them to confirm timescale to treat, they said no real idea but no hope within the 56 day target for treatment, and so he went private at great personal expense.
The operation was completed in days and was a complete success.
The irony of case, this patient had raised Ā£millions for the NHS by organising very large charity functions over very many years, what a slap in the face !
Clearly capacity exists in the Private sector, so why does the NHS not use it to reduce waiting lists ?
The answer is simple, “internal politics”.
April 5, 2022
Which off topic comment about the Emerald Isle would you prefer?
Today’s Irish Times still misleading readers about ETA’s:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/british-government-minister-accepts-further-dialogue-required-on-border-move-1.4844641
“British government minister accepts āfurther dialogueā required on Border move”
“The human rights NGO, the Committee on the Administration of Justice (CAJ), has also condemned the move, which it said was āunworkable and risks a hard border for many non-British and non-Irish citizens in Border communities who have been able to freely cross the Border to dateā.”
Or the Fermanagh Herald with a grossly inaccurate, highly inflammatory, article about it on Sunday:
https://fermanaghherald.com/2022/04/anger-over-british-plan-to-reintroduce-border-checks/
“Anger over British plan to reintroduce border checks”
“DESPITE countless promises Brexit would not result in any hardening of the border, many workers and tourists could be soon be facing checks when coming into Fermanagh.”
“The proposals would also mean an Italian nurse living in Monaghan or a German doctor living in Cavan, for instance, would need ETA clearance everyday they go to work in the SWAH.”
“The British government is arguing that it is not a āhard borderā for migrants to face up to four years in prison for forgetting or not having pre-clearance on a local journey. That those who cross the border as part of their everyday lives could face four years in prison for forgetting to apply for preclearance is extremely punitive, and draconian.ā
Or maybe this article in the Belfast News Letter would be of greater interest:
https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/politics/public-body-declares-that-in-spite-of-brexit-northern-ireland-must-ape-the-eus-laws-on-human-rights-or-it-will-launch-court-fights-3640506
“Public body declares that in spite of Brexit Northern Ireland must ape the EUās laws on human rights ā or it will launch court fights”
“Added to that, Section 2 of the Protocol also promises that the UK will uphold six particular bits of European law (known as directives) governing equality between the sexes and among different races.”
April 5, 2022
I see the Russians have requested an emergency UN Security Council meeting and a UN forensic investigation of the atrosity in Boucha but Britain has vetoed it. Do you know why Sir John?
April 5, 2022
The UK government vetoed it twice. They are determined that the truth will not be revealed.
They know that there was no indication of this event after the Ukrainian authorities returned otherwise would why would they not have reported it immediately?
April 5, 2022
Or to put it another way:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-ask-un-security-council-again-discuss-bucha-provocations-2022-04-04/
April 5, 2022
Time we scraped the UN security council permanent five and their vetoesā¦the UK should lead the way and declare that we are a regular memberā¦.weāre all equal but some are more equal
April 5, 2022
Sir John, you refer to “they” at the OBR and the Treasury. The forecasts to which you refer, including the erroneous ones, were produced by people and signed-off by a person. Their names may not belong in public fora, but can they not be identified in parliamentary committee or in ministers’ documents, so that government knows who “they” are and can avoid using or relying upon them? Forecasting is difficult (especially about the future, as Yogi Berra told us!) but if I kept getting my sums wrong I would be out of business. Should we not have better from those whose work is used to steer our nation?
April 5, 2022
You point out that the treatment of indexed bonds in the official forecasts amounts to fiddling the books. Have any of your MP colleagues spotted this or complained about it? Presumably the authors of this scam thought they would get away with it. How much longer are Tory MPs prepared to tolerate the dishonesty and incompetence of its current leadership?
April 5, 2022
I heard something on the radio yesterday. Apparently the carbon dioxide crisis is now way past the point of no return and the only chance we have is to remove carbon from the atmosphere. Regardless of whether that is or is not utter hysteria, is it practical to remove carbon from the air. If carbon dioxide is 0.04% of the atmosphere, I wonder how much air you would need to filter (or whatever the process might be) to extract a gram of carbon? And, having done this, what would you do with the carbon then? Put it back down a coal mine? I hope those people driving the āgreen transitionā have got some answers.
April 5, 2022
Mike. It’s laughable but then so is this government.
April 6, 2022
I’m pleased you can laugh -I can’t.
April 5, 2022
Mike
Carbon dioxide is not carbon
April 5, 2022
Barbara, no-one is concerned about the two atoms of oxygen connected to each atom of carbon. It’s the carbon they want to remove. You take the one atom of carbon out of each molecule of carbon dioxide and set the two atoms of oxygen free – to be breathed in by us and exhaled as carbon dioxide – amongst many other things. I’d like to know how they plan to do this – and, as I said, how much air you would have to process to remove 1 gram of carbon. I’d just like to know the figures.
April 5, 2022
If you grow a tree, make charcoal from that tree, and then compress and sink that carbon in the sea – or anywhere else – then you have removed that carbon from the air.
The process provides methanol and a useful flammable gas too.
April 6, 2022
If CO2 were to be removed from the atmosphere the earth would die. There would be no greenery and we would all starve. Just what the hysterics keep telling us is going to happen if we allow it to stay.
April 5, 2022
A paltry rise in the state pension this year when we need it and the promise of more next year. That’s if pensioners actually survive this winter when they will struggle to fund any kind of heating.
April 5, 2022
Surprised you claim that Sunak wants to be a tax cutting chancellor, thereās not a shred of evidence to support that view.
April 5, 2022
+1 I’m starting to believe that we have a few labour sleepers in the party
April 6, 2022
the best place to hide is in plain sight.
April 5, 2022
The latest idiocy, if true. Ā£900,000 of TAXPAYERS cash to be spend on making Alex more ‘gender neutral’. WHY, and why taxpayers cash and not Amazons? Who asked for this? Names please and why do they have so much influence that we finance the completely unnecessary changes to products of private companies to appease the ‘gender is whatever we say it is’ lobby?
Add in the Ā£4 million given to pro-EU think tanks, and heaven knows what else. Meanwhile, millions of the people in this country go into poverty, but we can celebrate … what? Having a gender neutral Alexa and pro-EU think tanks telling us all how stupid and uneducated we Brexiters (gammons??) are? Whoopee doo! When will sanity, equality and consideration for the majority be restored?
April 5, 2022
Apologies, the ‘Alex’ should have been ‘Alexa’ … or maybe they will find a gender neutral name for it! Alex would probably fit the bill.
April 5, 2022
This government & conservative party is pathetic
April 5, 2022
Shirley
Yes almost unbelievable isn’t it, what a bloody farce, but we are in the UK so the minorities must be heard and placated, no matter how much it costs or how stupid their thoughts.
Simple solution, a switch to allow a choice of voices, just like you can get on some sat nav programmes.
There you are saved us nearly a Ā£million quid at a stroke !!!!
April 6, 2022
I keep thinking the stupidity of this government can no longer surprise me … then there they go again and exceed all my expectations of stupidity!
April 6, 2022
UN hand in all this too. R & D yes, but this is mad. Many pockets though being well lined. I thought the Ā£900.000 for the ‘expert assessment’ on the PM’s NI/Scottish bridge or tunnel was bad enough. & not too long ago. Who knew the likely eventual cost would be ca Ā£200 billion even if it were at all possible. Sick of seeing all the waste. A comment seen elsewhere only recently, hits the mark, “governed by an idiocracy” Please make it stop!
April 5, 2022
Waging economic warfare on Russia by waging economic warfare on us is not conducive to polling success quite part from the the fact the US which is mandating this economic blitzkrieg on Europe is notably not a victim of its own prescription, far from it.
Meanwhile poor people and farmers are paying a very high price for the double whammy of the government’s response to the Ukrainian situation and their pathological hatred of CO2.
Defra, however, has the answer to the escalating cost of fertiliser: it is to encourage the growing of clover just like in medieval times before firstly guano was imported from S. America to greatly improve soil fertility and subsequently artificial fertilisers transformed productivity. I suppose they learned about the rotation of crops for their history degrees and assumed it had some relevance for food production today.
April 5, 2022
“So why change a winning formula?”
Sir John,
You are not understanding the policies because none of top echelons of any of the parties who currently represent us in Parliament want the country to be a prosperous democracy.
They all agree that :
– Freedom of speech needs to be controlled and curtailed (Online Harms Bill)
– Small, privately owned businesses need to be in decline and public sector (Government) employment needs to be increased.
– Taxes are to be increased with ever more people living their lives dependent upon the state.
– Living standards are to be reduced, ostensibly to save the planet, but really to control the population, by implementing Net Zero, a policy designed to give us the expensive and intermittent power supply of a third world country . The UN and the BBC will be employed to frighten living daylights out of us into believing the world will burn to a crisp if we do not blindly follow.
– We need a higher population density, shortages of infrastructure, more stress on our institutions and increasing social disharmony through the continued implementation of the UNās migration policies, even though the definition of madness is to keep doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result.
April 5, 2022
Spot On
April 5, 2022
It is all there in front of their very eyes, but there are none so blind as those who will not see.
On today’s Not a Lot of People Know That website is a really good entry that goes some way to explaining the high cost of our energy.
Windfall Profits For ROC Generators Running At Ā£1 Billion A Month
April 5, 2022
I have written before of how renewable generators are profiteering from the Renewable Obligation scheme. I now have the generation data from November 2021 to quantify just how much.
To recap, as we know power prices began to rocket last autumn. Day-ahead prices hit the Ā£200/MWh mark in November, up from the historic level of under Ā£50.
https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-data-and-research/data-portal/wholesale-marke Ā£6 billion, all of which is added to our energy bills.
On top of this subsidy, of course, generators also receive an income from electricity sales.
Virtually all of our onshore wind generation, about 95%, is subsidised via Renewable Obligation Certificates, ROCs. Something like two-thirds of offshore wind and half of solar output is also covered. (continued)
April 5, 2022
I canāt help feeling that cutting VAT on domestic fuel and electricity would have been more sensible than cutting duty on petrol, assuming of course it wasnāt possible to do both.
April 5, 2022
Remember he (The Chancellor) can do what he likes, he can fix the sums and the calculation method, and put taxes up and down at will, it’s his choice.
Problem is most of them choose the most expensive and complicated solution !!
April 5, 2022
To ease to squeeze could this government while privatising Ch4, also privatise Welsh SC4 and Scottish BBC Albaā¦.and please privatise the whole BBC
April 5, 2022
I think it is fair to say that this site attracts Conservative voters – by and large. I am one of the few exceptions. It will be interesting to see what happens in the local elections. If the Conservative voters’ sentiments expressed on here are any guide, there should be, at the least, widespread abstentions.
If the Tories ‘do okay’ – notwithstanding the sentiments widely expressed on here – one would then draw the conclusion that those sentiments are not widely held.
April 6, 2022
Mike
Not all candidates listed yet for Wokingham.
Am hoping that we have a Monster Raving loony candidate, or a sensible independent, as that is who I would vote for, I cannot with any conscience vote for any of the major parties, and raving loony seems to be the world we are living in at the moment, so perhaps it needs some thinking outside the box to understand and change it.
I certainly will vote, because if you do not vote, I do not see how you can complain.
April 5, 2022
Iāve just read the āconservatives for environment (CEN)ā website which states –
āā CENās Parliamentary Caucus of 133 MPs and 17 peers drives the green conservative agenda in Westminsterāā
Looks like Iāve been following the wrong party
April 6, 2022
Would the REAL green party stand up !
April 6, 2022
I think that the government has grossly underestimated the impact that rising energy prices are going to have across the board. Unfortunately the Ukrainian war has now put paid to any hope that this would be short-lived, given that the EU is going to have to compete with the rest of the world for scarce gas resources if it is going to shun Putin, as it must.
I will be very surprised if the economies of the West, and ours in particular, will not be in recession by the end of this year. The problem is akin to the one around Net Zero : There are nowhere near enough better off households to raise the tax that would be necessary to pay the enormous cost of elimination fossil fuels any more than would be needed this year to protect all those that cannot afford to heat their homes and put food on the table.
If the government sees sense, the cost of achieving Net Zero can be deferred by extending the date well beyond 2050, but I confess not to have an answer to the immediate problem of rising energy costs. The real impact will not hit until the Autumn by which time the energy price cap will have been greatly increased again and the colder winter weather will be upon us.
April 6, 2022
Is Mme Le Pen closing the gap through undertaking to reduce VAT?
April 7, 2022
No, through the collapse in support for Zemmour and his support shifting to her, largely.
April 7, 2022
Don’t be too optimistic about our fiscal stance. Yes, inflation + fiscal drag will boost Government revenue but wage inflation will increase payroll costs. And interest on Government borrowing is set to rise.