We have the inflation. It is important to avoid the recession. It looks as if we will see peak inflation this autumn as the official forecasts now concede. The delayed increases in domestic heating bills will adversely affect the inflation numbers then and hit people’s budgets again at the next increase.
Next year inflation should come down. It is difficult to believe the prices of the basics could go up again by the magnitudes of the increases this year. Money policy this year is a lot tighter, whereas it was too loose last year. The economy is being slowed by the Bank’s policy and their higher interest rates, and by the big hit to real incomes caused by soaring fuel and food prices. ManyĀ people are responding by having to cut back on some discretionary spending to afford the basics. The reduction in demand from these measures will help cool prices.
It does not need a wide range of tax rises on top of the forces slowing the economy. VAT cuts on energy wouldĀ be helpful, both by cutting the prices of some of the dearest items in budgets, and by returning a bit of cash to people who otherwise have to pass the money to the fuel companies, suppliers and government energy taxes.
June 23, 2022
Good morning.
Too late, the damage has already been done. Great chunks out of peoples money has been made and that will be hard to replace.
The government has got an awful lot of money to spend as does not seem to want to reduce its take. So no reductions in taxes. As for the tightening of monetary policy, where ? Where has there been any reductions. Yesterday we heard that the government splashed Ā£16bn on the railways and that every employee is subsidized by the tax payer to the tune of Ā£160k per year.
Talk a about borrow and waste.
June 23, 2022
Railways weren’t the only industries subsidised massively. The whole country was paid to stay off far longer than it would have tolerated otherwise.
This was done following overblown leftist controlled science… by a proven liar and lockdown cheat… of the same dreary body of scientists who now tell us that a sunny day is a disaster that should be named like hurricanes are and be something to fear.
Statist control of any sort is hugely expensive and stifling. Never has this country looked so Marxist than after 12 years of Tory rule.
Rest assured. ‘Modernisation’ of the railways means huge job cuts… at a time when ‘motoring’ is being deliberately made unaffordable by the same Govt that taxes, spends and pisses down the drain. .
Sunak well knew his lockdown schemes were going to have to be paid for dearly. At least I hope he did !
June 23, 2022
‘Railways werenāt the only industries subsidised massively’
– The railways and how to fund them is a headache for countries all around the Western world including the UK. So don’t be too harsh on the government here. There’s no easy solution to the railways. And anyone who thinks so doesn’t understand the complexity of the railway system and how it impacts on the economy / national life in general.
Personally, I think we should focus on having a first class railway system in the commuter belt to and around London including double deckers (and nicely designed ones – make them iconic-looking like the London red bus or black cab), focusing on comfort and speed and reliability. And forgetting HS2. And helping the North of England in other more efficient ways.
June 23, 2022
You can’t have double-decker trains on commuter lines (or anywhere else in the UK really) since it would mean demolishing and rebuilding every bridge they go under …. with massive implications for the road network.
June 23, 2022
Such a shame. Bridges. And also the gauge seems to be a big issue too. So make the trains longer? (No doubt, would involve having to lengthen platforms and introduce more safety signals, I guess, but not nearly as expensive as introducing double deckers – and make the trains nicer looking and more comfortable – so that commuters can travel back and forth with greater ease). Be good to see government produce some stats on this.
June 23, 2022
Some countries have double-decker trains with carriages not higher than a one decker carriage: the RER in the area around Paris. Deutsche Bahn commuter trains on the lines Hanover-Hamburg and Bonn-Duesseldorf-Dortmund are usually double/decker at peak hours. Idem for Moscow-St Petersburg. I do not know for sure about Russia but these parts of France and Germany have bridges and even tunnels and the double-decker trains do not seem to be a problem.
June 24, 2022
@Hefner,
We’ve absolutely got to look at things like that. It’s unacceptable that many of the 3 million London commuters, who are helping to finance the backbone of our economy, and paying a lot of money to travel, and in some cases a few hours from London, by train, there and back each day, have to travel like they’re in a cattle truck.
June 24, 2022
(I’m all for government helping the poor and vulnerable but we got to look after those as well who are creating the wealth of this country – and literally so when they are on the train as they should be able to work at ease on the train with their laptops and phones and also arrive at work not exhausted or stressed out by the train journey).
June 23, 2022
The Govt continually borrows too much to waste.
June 23, 2022
With the amount of tax the government is receiving it shouldn’t need to borrow.
Taxes are one of the biggest inflationary pressures but Rishi is following his WEF masters never to reduce tax. He has to go.
June 23, 2022
We need extra taxes to pay for foreign aid, immigration, HS2, the WEF, the EU, the UN, all the quangos, track nā trace, empty aeroplanes, net-zero, wind turbines, cycle lanesā¦..none of which comes cheap (and you could remove them all and it wouldnāt affect the lifes of the working class one little bit)
June 24, 2022
The WEF which Boris is so enthusiastic about. No doubt he has been given his instructions. Time for a truly British PM, not an imposter.
June 23, 2022
Indeed they do. We have a tax, borrow and piss down the drain socialist government in power and an even worse opposition. But worse still on top of all this insanity we have a regulate everything to death government (see the insanity of the new attacks on Landlords and indirectly tenants), the vastly expensive open door immigration policy, millions of pointless degrees (with Ā£50K of soft debt attached) and perhaps most damaging of all the insane expensive & intermittent energy for no good reason – the Net Zero religion.
Plus the pointless lock down (net damaging), the money printing for inflation and it now seems from the state that the Covid Vaccines we not very effective at all and not very safe either. They seem to have done severe net harm for many people and yet are still being pushed even at children.
June 23, 2022
Allister Heath today:-
“Basket-case Britain is the definitive proof lockdown was an epic mistake.
The strikes, inflation, decay and incompetence: all are direct costs of the decision to shut down society.”
Indeed even the vaccination were for most people it seems – plus all the dreadful things we have about.
Andrew Bailey was in charge of the FSA when they gave us one size fits all 40%+ interest rates on personal overdrafts. Proving he is surely unsuitable to run a piggy bank. Can we please go back to rates like base plus 2.5% as they used to be. In effect it bans personal overdrafts at sensible rates. So no sensible people can use an overdraft? That would help with the cost of living for some!
Allister Heath
June 23, 2022
Allister Health has delivered a devastating critique of Johnson’s Government. And all entirely deserved.
The coward wrecked his Government before it even really got started.
June 23, 2022
Basket case and ruination of our nation arising from Tory and especially Boris’ arrogance and neglect. Third world standards have arrived and are expanding. Monkeypox, polio and organ harvesting here.
But Boris tells the world ‘you can all come’ you are welcome.
June 24, 2022
+1
June 23, 2022
‘Covid Vaccines we not very effective at all and not very safe either. They seem to have done severe net harm for many people and yet are still being pushed even at children’ – really? This is serious stuff. On the other hand, if we hadn’t had vaccines, the world economy would be in tatters by now.
June 23, 2022
The statistics seem to support me here amd are fairly clear. See the excellent Dr Clare Craig and her many very informative links. Not very effective not even very safe it seems. One question the government should now be asking is why we still have so many excess non Covid deaths?
June 23, 2022
Good morning
This is what happens when western governments, politicians and their associated dependents reject Friedman and Hayek and replace them with Marx and Keynes.
F and H is the real. M and K are destructive lies
June 23, 2022
+1
June 23, 2022
People who mismanaged money used to pay in debtors prison.
Now debtors are rewarded with benefits.
Peter wastes 30 wild years on wine, women and gambling incurring Ā£150k in debt.
Paul works 30 frugal years carefully to save Ā£150k instead for his old age.
Why does Peter gain free Nursing Care at Paulās expense?
This backward Govt robs Paul to Pay Peter
June 24, 2022
Well you are likely to be able to mug more taxes out of Paul as he has some money! For government it is rather like:- Why do robbers rob banks? Because that is where the money is?
June 24, 2022
Not just Government but society in UK. We have learned that the State looks after …. but funds taken from those with prudence.
June 23, 2022
I’ve just taken a look at my monthly groceries bill and, to my surprise, found it within a pound of the figure for last year. Yes, I have been making some ‘substitutions’ – but I think that food inflation is manageable and shouldn’t be a driver for added government generosity to pensioners, the ‘vulnerable’, and other ‘benefit’ claimants. Fuel is a different matter and the government needs to reduce its tax-take. Sunak is the Windfall profiteer-in-Chief.
June 23, 2022
Sea Warrior.
Since when have State Pensioners been on a par with Benefit Claimants?
June 23, 2022
State pension is a benefit-fact
June 24, 2022
Clearly you chose to misunderstand the question.
June 24, 2022
+1
June 23, 2022
Goldman Sax published a report this week saying the number one cause of inflation was the Green lobby. The reality of marxist based virtual signalling is finally beginning to sink in.
June 23, 2022
– Pandemic virtue signalling printing hundreds of billions, which has now been shown to have a NET negative impact on life.
– Immigration virtue signalling allowing Mass immigration of NET tax reduction per person and causing high taxes and diluted public services.
– Green virtue signalling causing NET cost to the economy to be volatile in a deeply negative direction.
– Just like Communism and other ākindā political systems, Virtue signalling is the root of economic destruction.
June 23, 2022
And having said that, you then have to ask whether working people should cheerfully accept the resultant reduction in their living standards from policies they didn’t vote for and which seem to serve the nefarious purposes of globalist organisations.
June 23, 2022
I repeat: This is the worst government and House of Commons in my lifetime and I have lived through many bad ones.
June 24, 2022
I’m inclined to agree – will we reflect as the years pass, if I live to have time to reflect on just how bad.
June 23, 2022
Happy Liberation Day, everyone.
Apart from those who never wanted to be liberated from the EU, for whom we must feel some sympathy.
June 23, 2022
Why Denis, give me one good reason to sympathise with the traitors
June 23, 2022
Can I come back to you on that?
June 24, 2022
we wait with baited breath.
June 25, 2022
Thanks DC, the people of Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton seem to have celebrated in their own way this happy anniversary.
June 23, 2022
I’ve given up expecting this government to act sensibly. They appear to do the exact opposite, and not just in financial terms. I thought the EU was bad, but Boris is their equal, or worse! Still, at least the electorate can kick him out, even if the party won’t. I guess people will be back to voting for the least worst, because all the main parties now offer the same things, with few exceptions. What a damning situation for the electorate. I hope people are brave enough to vote for change, else we’ll get the same old deceit and dishonesty that we have sadly had to become accustomed to.
June 23, 2022
It people didn’t have to pay so much to Tory rentiers then they’d have more to spend in the productive economy.
For instance, of the Ā£5 that you typically spend on a pint of beer in London, about 25p is brewing costs but something like Ā£3 often goes straight to the freeholder of the premises.
That’s assuming that people can afford to go out at all after they have paid their own rents to same.
June 23, 2022
So the only expense incurred by a tavern owner is buying the beer at, according to you, base cost that doesn’t take into account the brewer’s liabilities?
Nothing to do with staff salaries, building and equipment maintenance costs, insurance, taxation, and dare I even whisper it: making a bit of profit?
June 23, 2022
NLH. Regarding your last paragraph. The last time I went out to the cinema I couldn’t believe how packed all the bars and restaurants were and with mainly young people. They don’t seem to be suffering.
June 23, 2022
most live rent and work free in the Hotel of Mum & Dad.
June 23, 2022
Continentals are pissing themselves over Rees-Moggs “dashboard” speech; all these EU rules and regulation that have been holding back the UK for four decades! It appears they haven’t been holding back other EU countries. It is near impossible for me to tell truth to power on any Conservative site lately but; on the off chance, have a look at the actual problem https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-person-employed-constant-ppp?country=USA~GBR~FRA~DEU~CHE~NOR~RWA~AUS~BEL~CHN~IRL~SWE~PRT~CAN~NLD~OECD+members~OWID_WRL Mouse over the chart and see the abysmal productivity of the UK; depicted by the “GDP per Employed Person” chart. Further analysis, I won’t bore you with, depicts a UK employed person’s share of the GDP generated per person employed; has dropped to 50%. The share of “gross operating surplus” in the UK economy, is increasing going to the owners and creditors of the UK economy and less to the “employed persons” who generated it.
June 23, 2022
Hilarious Marxist trope from you NHL
It is a market in London like every other place.
Property develops a level of rent.
Presumably you would rent whatever you own at bargain prices.
June 23, 2022
I have absolutely no faith that next year, inflation will come down and it looks to me as though a recession is now baked-in. People aren’t tightening their belts: they are frantically cutting back their discretionary spending and with petrol now costing Ā£2 a litre* it is inevitable it will have a knock-on effect across the economy, but particularly on the hospitality and tourism sector which hasn’t yet recovered from Johnson destructive Covid lockdowns.
(That’s over Ā£9 a gallon ….. I doubt if Johnson would want petrol to be served in imperial measures.)
With absolutely no sense of irony, the Government is loudly complaining that the RMT are trying to close down the economy this week, when that is precisely what SAGE/Johnson did for 18 months over a Low Consequence Infectious Disease. It was the disgraceful hyped-up reaction to Covid which has caused this inflation.
The B of E may have very belatedly stopped the money printing, but the Government won’t stop over-taxing, borrowing and squandering our money as well as giving away Ā£hundreds of billions every year to foreign regimes, Globalist organisations and Charity-Quangos.
It’s only the little people who have to tighten their belts.
June 23, 2022
Is there a good subject ready for tomorrow to ‘bury bad news?’.
June 23, 2022
MoD:Ukrainian forces on the verge of taking St Petersburg!
June 23, 2022
I’ll lay odds on Johnson leaking that he has had a row with Prince Charles about the Rwanda Policy.
June 23, 2022
No doubt this government will announce tomorrow the return of foreign aid to 0.7GNI, to the applause of everyone in the houseā¦and the dismay of everyone else in the country
June 23, 2022
Please don’t give them ideas.
June 23, 2022
The Kremlin imploded into rubble, and the search for Putin has been called off.
June 23, 2022
100s of Ā£bns printed in the last few years. Do you think this might drive inflation?
June 23, 2022
The vast majority of people in this Country agreed with all of the covid payments, lockdowns and spending on ppe and ventilators and wanted more and more. Those warning about the economic repercussions of lockdown were shot down as uncaring, grandparent murderers. Now some people want everyone else but them to pay back.
June 23, 2022
-Tracy. Yes the ones sitting on their backsides getting furlough loved it. As I remember it was Labour and the SNP shouting out for more , more, more.
June 23, 2022
Yes, as recent as December 2021! They didnāt want to go back in the New Year said Boris had called it wrong, he didnāt!
June 23, 2022
It was Rishi Sunak who 20 March 2020 announced that the government would pay up to 80% of wages for employees who were “furloughed”. There was no lockdown then, not until the following week. The Conservative government created the ruinously expensive ‘stay-at-home-and-get-specially-printed-money’ bonanza that started us down this inflationary road. He should be held to account for all the things you are blaming on Labour and the SNP, Fedupsoutherner.
June 24, 2022
Hat man. Complete rubbish. I remember thinking numerous times hearing the other parties saying “Yes, great but the government need to do more”. No, I am not hallucinating!
June 24, 2022
HatMan ONS said 1 in 4 employees was furloughed the other 75% were not at all working throughout or working at home throughout.
June 24, 2022
It doesn’t matter what you were ‘thinking’, FuS, that’s what how it started. And of course the ‘oppposition’ wanted more, but it was more of a Tory policy that they wanted.
June 23, 2022
From a BBC report on new economic modelling of Brexit yesterday:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-61894006
“Brexit: NI Protocol ‘helps lessen impact on NI economy'”
“… the UK economy will be 1.3% smaller compared to no Brexit, with a 0.7% hit to the NI economy.”
From a Sinn Fein statement on that research:
“Speaking on the publication of research from the London School of Economics and the Resolution Foundation on the impact of Brexit on the economy, the East Derry MLA said:
“This latest analysis highlights once again that Brexit is a disaster economically.
“It is also further evidence that the protocol is protecting the north from the worst excesses of the hard Brexit delivered by the Tories and the DUP.”
And here is the chart of UK GDP from 1948 t0 2021:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/281744/gdp-of-the-united-kingdom/
and the compound growth rate up the 2019, the last pre-pandemic year, was 2.5% a year.
From which a modelled 1.3% loss attributable to Brexit would be comparable in magnitude to the natural growth of the UK economy over about six months and would barely figure on the chart.
June 24, 2022
It can be seen on that chart how Covid knocked 9% off GDP in 2020 and yet there are still those who pretend that the economic damage caused by Brexit will exceed that caused by the pandemic.
As it happens today the NAO has produced an update on its tracker of the cost of Covid to the government:
https://www.nao.org.uk/covid-19/cost-tracker/#
and there is a number there of Ā£376 billion, which corresponds to 17% of 2021 GDP. Of course the numbers are not directly comparable but one can see the sheer difference in scale between Covid and Brexit. So when Lord Frost says that we may never know the precise economic impact of Brexit I’m sure that he’s right, but basically it will be so marginal that we need not worry that we don’t know it with precision.
June 23, 2022
Have we ever seen in our lifetime such an economic mess and such incompetence?
This has to beat Healey whose policies they used to say were as though he left an empty room in a mess. This one would have also turned the room upside down.
What sort of signal is sent out by increasing state pensions to you and me by 10%, paid for by the taxes from Ā£12 an hour workers? Outrageous! Downright stupid! You expect people to accept 3% in this situation, and when money has been showered over the country for 2 years?
June 23, 2022
Joe Soap.
What the hell is wrong with restoring the triple lock to state pensions for next April?
Those of us who have no other income will have suffered enough from inflation by then.
June 23, 2022
‘no other income’ – at least you won’t be paying Income Tax like most of the rest !
June 23, 2022
Then why shouldn’t everyone keep up with inflation? It won’t work, will it?
June 23, 2022
Harvey Jones: –
(Sunak pension increase) will lift the new State Pension to around Ā£10,600, in a rare piece of good news for pensioners as the cost of living rockets. It may not be the last big increase, either, with inflation set to stay high for years. This will help the State Pension keep up with inflation, but it won’t make pensioners better off in real terms. The extra money will vanish in higher food, fuel and energy costs. Plus there is a catch, one I don’t think anybody has highlighted yet.
While the State Pension will steadily increase, Sunak has frozen the personal allowance at Ā£12,570 for five years. Every year that freeze continues, the State Pension will move steadily closer to the point at which pensioners start paying income tax. Today, the new State Pension pays a maximum of Ā£9,627.20, which is almost Ā£3,000 below the basic rate income tax threshold.
My calculations suggest this won’t last. In just a few years, pensioners could soon find themselves caught in a brutal tax trap.
June 23, 2022
Peak inflation will not arrive until the government stops its Keynesian giveaways. Ā£1,600 more to benefits recipients? Universal credit to increase.
The rail workers should get whatever percentage Minimum wage recipients gets and Universal Credit claimants receive. Only fair after all.
June 23, 2022
I imagine that there are a good many people who already canāt afford the basics.
Yesterday one came to the door.
The unimaginable havoc and harm that politicians have caused even after the power grab of covid.
No gratitude from the government for loyalty and submission (aka utter stupidity).
Did we give Johnson a mandate to ruin our modest lives?
June 23, 2022
Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. If we didn’t pay more for imported products, domestic prices would rise faster. There is no such thing as cost push inflation, nor is there a wage price spiral. Both price inflation and wage inflation are caused by excess money. The only way to get rid of both is to freeze the amount of money and steadily raise interest rates. Wage increases will then obey the (n-1) rule; as inflation eases, each wage increase will be a little bit less than the one before.
Regarding the railway workers of RMT, they will get a wage increase somewhere near price inflation. What RMT cannot do is suspend the law of supply and demand, nor can they force the Chancellor to increase the borrowing requirement to accommodate increased labour costs on the railways. The last time I checked, London commuting was down by 44%. There must be cost savings on the railways, either by modernisation (the employers have a long list of measures) or by the withdrawal of unprofitable services. Believe me, there are going to be redundancies and a recession may be inevitable.
June 23, 2022
…………..peak inflation this autumn…………..
Why is this a supposition? The inflation of the 1970s was precipitated by the almost quadrupling of oil prices in 1973/4 along with a profligate Tory government preceding this. There are reports that Russia might turn off the gas taps to Europe which will create havoc in energy prices so what is different now? It’s painfully obvious that energy is the key.
June 23, 2022
Miami. Painfully obvious to everyone except the government and the other useless parties. They are still blinkered over energy whike the country is going to the wall. I hope little Greta and the likes are happy.
June 24, 2022
And it is equally obvious, Miami M., that if you start a sanctions war on a big supplier to the world’s energy market, you’d better be prepared for the consequences. Our political masters clearly weren’t. Governing, like management, means foreseeing what could happen. Biden, the EU, Johnson, none of them had a clue.
June 24, 2022
but it serves as a very painful reminder that the ‘natural resource owner’ can call your debt in should you ruffle its feathers.
June 23, 2022
And I might add, for the benefit of Mr Lynch, that the railways are not profitable. There are pockets of profitability in some operating companies but Network Rail runs at a loss and has a massive accumulated deficit – Ā£60 billion at the last count. The corollary of this is that Network Rail should not be allowed anywhere near wage negotiations; they are quite literally irresponsible because they are content to lose money without limit.
The old Railtrack company was different. It could charge whatever the market would bear for track access. It was the operating companies that suffered. Government support was still necessary. In capping track access charges, Prescott and Byers forced Railtrack into bankruptcy. It was done with malice aforethought in order to hasten renationalisation.
June 23, 2022
Itās my first time in six of reading this forum that the term āa wing and a prayerā springs to mind
June 23, 2022
Meanwhile the teachers are threatening to join the railway workers.
Johnson and wife have swanned off to Rwanda ( the only people to do so)ā¦
And TWO by-elections are taking place today.
June 23, 2022
Everhopeful. Add to those the staff at Heathrow and lawyers. Just waiting for the bin men and anyone else in the public sector to start. What joy!
June 23, 2022
And why not? The government wanted a high wage economy, they said so in their manifesto.
More wages means more tax. What’s the problem?
June 24, 2022
Dave. It is a problem for those who don’t get the big union led rises.
June 23, 2022
+1
June 23, 2022
You can just imagine when Boris returns he will extol the attraction of Rwanda and say how lucky the migrants will be to be transferred there.
June 23, 2022
Agree.
Heās missed two by-elections today!
June 23, 2022
Intentionally
June 23, 2022
So inflation and the Sunak Slump. Not good.
The USA might be in recession now. Some see deflation as a likely sequel. Who knows?
June 23, 2022
Off topic, on Monday the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill will be given its Second Reading in the Commons and I hope some MPs will raise the point I make in my Maidenhead Advertiser letter this week:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/06/19/why-do-so-many-councils-hate-vans-and-cars/#comment-1324575
“Therefore I am forced to hope that during its passage the Bill will be amended to place greater and more obvious emphasis of protecting the EU Single Market, to help win over those EU sympathisers.ā
June 23, 2022
Weāre heading for permanent recession and rationing of energy, food and travel if our civil service led government continues with the irrational and economy destroying climate breakdown/Net Zero Strategy belief that zeroing anthropological CO2 emissions will stabilise global temperature when historical records show fluctuating temperature with most of the time at temperatures higher than today.
As I write today (09:39 hrs) the 27GW of installed wind turbine capacity is generating just 1.81GW 5.29% of demand.
June 23, 2022
Putin has just cut back Nord Stream 1 to Germany. Energy is about to get a whole lot pricier.
Why are the British people not being prepared for the grim winter that is ahead ? Windmills and the tinkering with a couple of coal plants isn’t going to cut it.
June 24, 2022
Putin! You mean Canada has refused to give back the Nordstream 1 gear they were refurbishing, alleging anti-Russia sanctions, Therefore Gazprom has had to reduce the pressure in the pipepline, hence less gas. As the West sows, so shall it reap, NLA.
June 23, 2022
Just trying to think out of the box – can the government do the following (or something like) in conjunction with private enterprise to help young people get on the property market:
Build a number of cheap but cheerful, simple apartment blocks with tiny apartments (to reduce price) for 1 person that the person can buy but has to live there for at least a year, paying rent, before they can buy it?
June 23, 2022
The government gets is money back with some interest. The private company isn’t going to a be a leading property developer but they will make enough to do well. And the young person gets on the property market (which isn’t just about saving money in one’s own property but also the huge psychological advantage of knowing you have somewhere you can call home! Even if small. It’s a start. And if a man and woman both do this for 5 years, they will have built up 10 years of savings together, instead of wasting that money on renting.
June 23, 2022
Sir John.
Over and over you have said the Chancellor should remove VAT from energy.
AND THAT HE COULD EASILY AFFORD TO DO IT.
I believe you have included domestic energy, energy to manufacturing and petrol and diesel for our cars, vans and trucks.
It seems obvious to me that this would reduce the present inflationary pressure AND reduce the danger of recession.
I have said before:- You are the best Chancellor we never had.
June 23, 2022
Oh, I should have said. But of course your present Leader can not allow those sensible things because he has a CARBON NEUTRAL FIXATION.
June 23, 2022
Pauline. Sir John would be far too good at his job to be considered. It seems you have to have a degree in nonsense to qualify.
June 23, 2022
Inflation & recession ā could it be because this government doesnāt know if its capitalist or socialist, tory or labour, interventionist or market-forces
Why is it that our PM is always out of the country when things look bad for the Tories
June 23, 2022
Unfortunately we have yet to see the full supply chain consequences of governments’ failure to act a year ago when the energy crisis was unfolding. They will include reduced crop yields and lower food supply through the winter and next year; an ongoing energy supply crunch because of failure to promote more gas, oil and coal production that are necessary to unwind it; the effects of sharply higher metals prices, particularly those where China has a dominant supply chain position such as aluminium, copper, steel, lithium, neodymium and cobalt; consequent closures of manufacturing, exchange rate falls and widening trade deficits driving up costs.
With the lags involved it is hard to see inflation peaking until at least a year hence – perhaps more if governments continue to fail to act on the supply problems by blocking supply through sanctions, prevention of drilling and mining, etc.
June 24, 2022
Very good analysis, Mark. Perhaps some of the voters in those by-elections had worked it out too.
June 23, 2022
I think that the food that goes into fuel at 10 per cent in west is puting up fuel prices and making food prices go alot higher.
June 23, 2022
Joe said he want 15% food in fuel next year.
June 23, 2022
Contributors responding to todayās topic might be interested to read how Word software summaries their comments into what it regards as a report of their main points:
So no reductions in taxes.
So no sensible people can use an overdraft
Allister Health has delivered a devastating critique of Johnsonās Government.
Fuel is a different matter and the government needs to reduce its tax-take.
ā Immigration virtue signalling allowing Mass immigration of NET tax reduction per person and causing high taxes and diluted public services.
āBrexit: NI Protocol āhelps lessen impact on NI economy’ā
The extra money will vanish in higher food, fuel and energy costs.
Peak inflation will not arrive until the government stops its Keynesian giveaways. Universal credit to increase.
Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Both price inflation and wage inflation are caused by excess money. Regarding the railway workers of RMT, they will get a wage increase somewhere near price inflation.
Government support was still necessary.
So inflation and the Sunak Slump.
The government gets is money back with some interest. Even if small.
Inflation & recession ā could it be because this government doesnāt know if its capitalist or socialist, tory or labour, interventionist or market-forces
June 24, 2022
“inflation should come down.” This is a misleading concept.
Food and retail prices will not come down – they will rise further, albeit by a smaller percentage.
House prices will not come down.
Energy and travel costs will continue to soar.
Incomes will not rise in proportion. Nor will state pensions: the April 2023 increase will never compensate for the underpayment this year. (I am not a state pensioner, btw.)
The economy will sag because of the mass unwillingness to seek or go back to work, and the BNPL epidemic.
We shall struggle to afford more than basics until at least 2024-25.
Just in time for the Labour Coalition.
June 24, 2022
Globalisation and dependency ! Self sufficiency Rules !