The IMF revised its forecasts for world growth down for next year at its annual meeting. It now expects Germany and Italy to show negative growth next year, with the UK up by just 0.3% and the USA by 1%. The IMF revised UK growth for the current year up to 3.6%, ahead of USA, China, Japan and Germany. It reflected many other forecasts in expecting inflation to fall throughout the advanced world next year including the UK.
The IMF expects the UK’ central government net debt to be at 68.5% of GDP next year, and down to 56.5% by 2027, well below the levels forecast in the USA, France, Italy and Japan but above Germany. Those who value external independent forecasts might like to take this into account when commenting on the UK economy.
The IMF thinks one third of the world economy will be in recession between today and the end of next year. The IMF does warn countries against wide ranging schemes of price controls and subsidies, worrying that these stop price acting as a signal to put in more capacity to increase supply, and blunting the impact of price on demand. They warn that long periods of price control and subsidy lead to shortages of supply, refusal to invest in new capacity, and black market activity.
They also rightly warn Central Banks both against too law a money policy to fuel the inflation, and against too tight a policy to produce a recession.
October 12, 2022
Good morning.
Who cares what they say, the IMF is just a global version of the OBR with a similar track record.
What people really care about are the things that directly affect them. A lot of what we pay out goes in the form of government taxation. Half of what we earn goes on tax. Then on what we spend (ie VAT) goes on tax. Buy a property ? Yep we will tax you on that too.
King John must be looking down with envy at all the coin the government are collecting.
October 12, 2022
Mark, I think the IMF issued several reports based on the BBC coverage. They skimmed past the number of countries going into recession next year and majored on the IMF saying UK borrowing levels were unsustainable. Funny the same IMF were much less critical when the UK borrowed and wasted much more on the Covid ‘crisis’.
I can’t help thinking the Beeb’s tone would differ if Nick-nac Sturgeon and Sir Kier the Grate were in power and borrowing as much.
October 12, 2022
+1 Mark. Who in their right mind would believe pro EU globalist Christine Legard!!
Get rid of the OBR, ONS and other quangos and have a reliable Treasury team. Time to cut the state spending on these wasteful inaccurate left wing infested political bodies.
Some Tory on TV yesterday heralding the wasteful overseas budget as some sort of essential soft power! More like he is soft in the head!! Target driven spending from borrowed money which the taxpayer has to pay back, ÂŁ2.3 trillion in Debt, is not essential or necessary. Humanitarian aid plus a bit for bribery is all that is required. And, no, I do not want to educate children in countries where their govt prefer to have a space programme or nuclear deterrent. I want our children properly educated without left wing cultural Marxism. Return to leaving as an option at 16 to earn a living if they wish not forced to be brainwashed until 18yrs to keep them away from work as part of the Tory mass immigration policy!
October 12, 2022
Off topic. Has Truss signed up the UK to EU military pact? We voted Brexit. Has she signed up to EU political community? We voted leave through Brexit! What next join the Euro!
Today she thinks wasteful pubic spending will continue despite tax cuts!
Get her out.
October 13, 2022
Hope: This subject was broached last night on Farage / GBN. There is some general info too on the ‘euronews’ website. As I know it’s preferred we don’t post links, in case not seen ( search GBN + Youtube + Ben Habib 12 October 2022 ) there was discussion between N. Farage & B. Habib on this & including comment regarding our signing up to the PESCO project, encompassing military mobility.
October 12, 2022
Well we can easily grow far more quickly than 2%. Just ditch net zero and all the other vast & wasted government expenditure. Get more people working on productive activities, far fewer parasites living of their back, taxing them to death, over regulating them and inconveniencing them.
October 12, 2022
+100
Ah yes! And taxes raised for much the same purpose.
Apparently he also did a âBrexitâ with Magna Carta.
Granted it, then immediately tried to rescind it!
October 12, 2022
Interesting analogy with Magna Carta, agreed, not agreed, rewritten and agreed then the final version. At least back then their own lives could be at risk if they did a bad deal.
October 12, 2022
Seems that the UK is – but two thirds of the world will not be.
You voted to leave that two-thirds.
Well done.
October 12, 2022
NLH. We could ignore the climate alarmists and anti-industrialists and get fracking. Energy is our real problem now.
The crowning glory of those industrialists is an asteroid deflection system which works. The UK deserves some slack. We also did well in defeating Covid.
You won’t get Danny Boyle acknowledging that in opening ceremonies.
October 12, 2022
Excuse me, but what part did the British play in the Dart program that recently deflected Dimorphos?
And in case you donât know NASA people are quite keen on studying climate change.
Then Danny Boyleâs opening ceremony for the 2012 Olympics: as far as I know in those days nobody was talking of asteroid to be deflected nor of Covid.
I know that at present anybody who is not beatifically in admiration of the present government is painted with the anti-growth brush, but isnÂŽt amalgamating space research, industrialists, Danny Boyle and climate ârealistsâ a bit over the top?
Or am I missing something? Is it necessary to be off oneâs head to comment on this blog?
October 12, 2022
Again your disdain for anyone with a different opinion to you shines brightly.
Are you always right heffy?
Oh hang on, you are a self opinionated member of the Liberal left.
Therefore you consider yourself to be superior and always right.
October 12, 2022
+1 hefner. As for defeating Covid……!
October 12, 2022
We started the scientific industrial revolution which eventually begat the NASA projects.
Or are we only ever to be blamed for everything, Hefner ?
OK. Let’s rewind the clock. Scrub the industrial revolution. Get hit by an extinction event asteroid in 2050.
October 12, 2022
Well did we defeat Covid I suspect not looking at the stats. for different countries? Or with the lockdowns, the relatively ineffective and often dangerous vaccines (coerced even into young arms who never even needed them) did we actually make it far worse, damage the economy and lose rather more quality life years than we would have done had we done almost nothing beyond treating the sick as best we could?
Danny Boyle and his dancing nurses pantomime was absurd. Based on medical outcomes the NHS is very poor indeed and medical staff treated poorly too perhaps why. Also it seems extremely likely Covid was actually âtrainedâ to be more dangerous in by scientists in labs.
October 12, 2022
LL Taking the vaccines at face value, we led the world in getting out of lockdown.
October 12, 2022
No, NLH, we voted to rejoin the other two-thirds on our own terms.
October 12, 2022
We voted to leave the EU, the slowest growing part of the global economy (I wonder why that is?)
I wouldn’t put too much faith in the EU weathering this particular storm well if I were you NLH
I’ve met Americans who seem to think that the European Union is exactly the same as the United States of America. I quote them “One Nation under God, Indivisible ” and then explain why the EU is very far from being that.
October 12, 2022
Mark B
Agreed, we have too many organisations proffering advice which seldom proves to be correct, because few understand or take into account Human Nature, their thoughts and actions.
Many politicians over the past couple of decades also have the same failure traits, which is why so many Government policies fail.
October 12, 2022
I see it is now being reported that we have the lowest unemployment rate for 50 years, yet the number of working age people who are not looking for work has now gone up to over 9,000,000 (the highest it has ever been).
Can someone explain this to me, have all of those people not looking for work retired early, and are financially happy and secure, so no need to work any more.
Are some/many completely unfit to be considered for work, and will never work.
Are some receiving more in Benefits than if they worked, so feel they no need to bother.
Or is there another sensible explanation.
Anyone any idea’s, or is this yet another set of figures that are wrong !
October 12, 2022
I read that a lot of them are students, Alan.
See here https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/articles/movementsoutofworkforthoseagedover50yearssincethestartofthecoronaviruspandemic/2022-03-14
“In April to June 2022 there were 3.6 million people aged 50 to 64 economically inactive, 1.5 million of which were men and 2.1 million were women. Of the 3.6 million inactive individuals aged 50 to 64, nearly 2 in 5 (39.1 per cent, 1.4 million) gave the main reason ‘sick or disabled’.8 Sept 2022” gov.uk
I don’t know why 50 to 70 are lumped together it should be 50-66.
66-70 is over our retirement age so they would be expected to be economically inactive in retirement wouldn’t they?
October 12, 2022
I can offer an explanation for that. I suggest that there a huge number of working people, both employed and self-employed, who have simply withdrawn from the workplace because they are utterly sick to death of massive and petty over regulation (mostly EU dictated) which constantly treats them as though they are a threat to be controlled rather than a resource to be valued.
October 13, 2022
Ken L
Whilst I can understand your point, surely they still need money to live, so still have to work doing something, surely they have not all retired have they.
October 13, 2022
Sir John didn’t like my comment about rather more ’employed’ are only doing up to 15 hours work, and claiming the needed rest of income via benefits. I’ll try again.
October 12, 2022
Tell me whenever they’ve been right.
Just an extension of the WEF and as rubbish as the WHO.
They don’t like the fact the government is cutting taxes it’s not in their playbook.
October 12, 2022
Agreed, Mark. ‘The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is a major financial agency of the United Nations’ (Wikipedia). Nuff said.
October 12, 2022
Not only is government excessive in what they collect from what we earn , they tax again whenever we use what we nett out of earnings. Having collected all our contributions they then commence spending it in a most proflugate way. Tell me of one government department that gives value for money, the military excepted. Their ministry, the MOD has an unparalleled reputation for incompetent spending. Even with welfare we miss the needy while blanket distributing cash to the mass just so politicians can feel good about themselves. We see through them while noticing people sleeping on the streets, the ignored mentally ill, and those in need of final life care. We suffer a disfunctional transport system ln road rail and in the air. An immigration system that fails the legal, and imposes costs on the population to cover the illegal. We pay for a police service that is by any standards a joke. They might aspire to being lions but not while they are led by donkeys.
I could go on all day but experience suggests that few in Parliament are listening. I hope that Reform are keeping their powder dry for a slaughter Brexit produced for the last EU election we were allowed to take part in.
October 12, 2022
Rees Mogg mentioned the IMF on radio4 this morning, saying it was unusual for them to report favourably about Britain. He was then asked if he had read the report in full.
The government definitely has a problem with gaining favourable media coverage. Disunity in the party exacerbates the problem.
October 12, 2022
Agree – Remember that the IMF is part of the UN and its core function is to provide ‘temporary financial assistance’ …maybe it should keep to that role and stop interferring with countries finances
October 12, 2022
@Mark B
“The IMF’s resources mainly come from the money that countries pay as their capital subscription (quotas) when they become members. Each member of the IMF is assigned a quota, based broadly on its relative position in the world economy. Countries can then borrow from this pool when they fall into financial difficulty”
It seems the IMF is a glorified insurance company ?
https://www.imf.org/en/About
October 12, 2022
Recessions are a natural and essential component of economic life. Yes, they’re inconvenient for politicians seeking office but to adopt dysfunctional theories like Keynesian demand management (public spending for political profit) only serves to delay the important rebalancing of one’s economy as it morphs its way along the path
When the State becomes a vested interest in its own right with all the attendant privileges and protections from the criminal law then it will seek any way to defend itself against harm and that includes bankrupting a nation by collusion with bodies like the WHO and WEF
October 12, 2022
They seem to happen under Tory rule, don’t they?
October 12, 2022
And even more under Labour I’m afraid.
Lest we forget ” There’s no Money Left ” (Liam Byrne)
October 12, 2022
Not always.
As usual your grasp of economic history is partial NLH
October 13, 2022
Peter 2
you criticise everybody with summary rude notes and your own contribution is usually superficial with no arguments or sources. How does this reelfct on you ? Are all the people you critcize “folly b” as you usually call them ? or do you simply feel this is the best way to contribute to this blog?
October 13, 2022
See my reply below bill.
October 13, 2022
Peter 2
As usual no arguments, examples or sources. You accuse people of being arrogant but your underlying tone is the same. Is this because you feel superior?
Or is this just natural for you?
By the way what is a ” folly leftie” that you keep using about people?
October 13, 2022
As usual Billy, no arguments, examples or sources from you.
When you provide an argument worthy of debate then I would be happy to engage with you.
Currently you just give us childish sound bites.
Prove I’m incorrect with facts and I will listen.
Otherwise you appear on hear as a just a troll.
October 12, 2022
+many
Second paraâŠgreat explanation of why they bonkersly tie themselves up to global treaties etc. I hadnât thought of it from that angle. Sounds about right!
October 12, 2022
What was agreed at the recent european political community meeting and were any minutes taken
October 19, 2022
In a 10 second search⊠you could have easily found on consilium.europa.eu âMeeting of the European PoliticalCommunity, 6 October 2022â. This was followed by the Prague meeting on 7/10/2022 with a file giving the main points of discussion accessible from the same sources.
October 12, 2022
No doubt we will be sending lots of foreign aid to help the poorer countries (even those with nukes, space programs and appalling human rights).
October 12, 2022
Reservoirs and power stations ? I would welcome public spending on those things which would be ready for Lift Off after the money the people who had been working on those projects had been spent in pubs and shops.
October 12, 2022
In short there are no ups without downs and recollection.
October 12, 2022
The UK government wastes money hand over fist. We have NEVER had an explanation why we spend so much money on hotels, food, spending money, NHS, dentists and legal fees for illegal immigrants, when the same care is denied ( or rationed) to LEGAL citizens.
WHY do the government give freeloading illegal immigrants better care than the tax paying Brits? Please do not try to tell me it is some international law that ‘uninvited guests’ must get better treatment than legal citizens. If any politicians DID sign us up to such a ridiculous and damaging law then they should be prosecuted (and jailed) for failing to do their duty of protecting the UK and its citizens.
October 12, 2022
PS. If there is such a law, then the UK must be the only signatory in the whole world! I guess there isn’t such a law after all. The politicians choose to give Brits inferior service and favour illegal immigrants with superior care, courtesy of the tax collected from the neglected Brits.
October 12, 2022
Just look at the evidence, under this government, illegal immigrants where accommodated in military barracks, then B&Bs, then Hotels, then 4*Hotels and now we hear on GB News that the government is actively looking to accommodate illegal immigrants in luxurious & historical hotels âŠutter madness with an 80 seat majority
October 12, 2022
Shirley – latest reports are that illegal immigrants are not only being given all the above plus spending money, but those in the Noke Hotel in St Albans are also all being given free mountain bikes !!
October 12, 2022
Well who is being paid to provide the ” in-demand services”.
Nice work the cost someone else’s problem, note increase in taxes , inflation and decrease in services via rationing and withdrawal of services to longstanding citizens, as they are de-prioritised.
For every illegal entries say 365,000 pa there will be less to go round. Which gov departments do we close?
October 12, 2022
I hope inflation does go down. Although by then my savings will have lost >15% (probably a lot more) of their buying power, and my future income will be taxed more than ever.
Most governments around the world have not been thoughtful of their citizens. The UK included. We deserved better. I’m not optimistic about the future for the ordinary man in the street.
October 12, 2022
Well, I’m afraid the fact is that your “savings” (if they are in cash) have been losing their value for some time Wanderer.
It’s just that’s been happening so slowly that you haven’t really noticed up until now (the Frog in boiling water etc). The truth is that ‘savers’ have been subsidising ‘spenders’ for many years. You received virtually zero interest paid on those savings, whilst others pumped free money into ever increasing asset bubbles. We are now returning to more normal times (despite all the knashing of teeth and howls of outrage from the media). You may now actually get some interest paid on your savings but I’m afraid it’s unlikely to maintain your wealth in real terms.
There is no Magic Money Tree, it is all an illusion and now we have to go back to reality.
October 12, 2022
The look on Penny Mordaunt’s face when Truss replied “absolutely” “absolutely” in answer to Starmers question as to whether she was going to persist with her mad policy-
wow – the puzzled shocked look said it all – I fear now that we are in deep DoDo
October 12, 2022
And your government crumbled at the first sign of opposition to a 5% tax reduction that would have boosted our growth whilst on the debit side your public spending is out of control and you have no idea what to do about it. Economic illiteracy.
We now read the Treasury civil servants refused to accept your choice of Scholars replacement. âYouâ are not running the country they are and âyouâ are helpless to do anything about it. I am not sure how âyouâ could make yourself look any more inept than âyouâ are now.
Truss was elected on a number of promises that she has now u turned on. So zero mandate.clinging on whilst âRomeâ burns.
And in other news the vaccine tsar totally shreds the process before outcomes bureaucracy, anti briefings from people jealous of success, two faced ministerial arrogance and now leaving us less secure than we should be against a future pandemic by closing/selling off a research facility. Of course the risible irony is that your government (Boris) is claiming this as their one success.
October 12, 2022
Did you listen to J R-M on BBC breakfast this morning – as slippery as an eel – as usual – nothing to see here – move along
October 12, 2022
Piecemeal, what did JRM say that was slippery or untrue?
October 12, 2022
That market reaction to the mini budget had nothing to do with the mini budget for starters. Then having the audacity to accuse the questioner of breeching BBC impartiality requirements for suggesting a link between the two, a link which is completely obvious to all apart from those taken in by the unsurpassed government and their supporters gaslighting.
As for accusing a journalist
October 13, 2022
Channel 4 factcheck “To be fair to Mr Kwarteng, the UK gilt market, along with other countriesâ bond markets, has been on rocky ground for several months due to factors largely beyond the governmentâs control.”
The Bank of England disagrees.
Chief monetary economist Huw Pill said last week that the recent round of âfiscal announcementsâ â i.e. the mini budget â was one of the reasons the gilt price had dropped so low. A Treasury spokesperson told FactCheck: âThere is no doubt that global financial markets have seen significant volatility in recent weeks, with all major currencies wrestling an incredibly strong US dollar. Like many other countries, the UK is not immune from that disruption.â
One of the reasons, not the only reason. I’m surprised that JRM said it was “nothing to do with the mini-budget for starters” was that a direct quote? He would have been better saying it was one of a lot of factors outside the UK’s control, don’t you think, Richard or Piecemeal?
October 13, 2022
Hard to tell the difference between “journalists” and activists these days
October 13, 2022
simple.
Activists DO IT, hacks invent it !
October 14, 2022
@MT except in journalism where many activists pretending to be journalists invent so much and scream so much.
I suggest proper journalists report it, hacks may well invent it and activists such as the wokey agw activist brigade ignore all but their own desires and wants.
You can no longer assume a BBC spokes person is a journalist complying with their charter but is most likely a biassed activist.
October 12, 2022
I, for one, thought that he did rather well under the aggressive questioning of the opinionated interviewer, Michel Hussain.
October 12, 2022
Is the IMF’s prediction based on the expectation of the Government importing yet another million+ gimmiegrants in the next year ….. and the 50,000 Albanian criminals they’re ferrying in expanding their drug and prostitution businesses?
October 12, 2022
Make them vatable and all problems solved
October 12, 2022
Individuals buying products and services for their own purposes and consumption dictate what happens. Predictions of how they will all behave before even each of those purchasers themselves donât know are as spooky as Mystic Meg once was.
October 12, 2022
Sir JR
THe potentially lower government debt than certain other countries has not had any effect on out negative credit rating. Due to a significant balance of payments problem and a government that offers major tax cuts, without informing the rest of the worl , how they will be financed.
October 12, 2022
bill brown, won’t they partially be financed by the savings on our divorce bill from the EU, we were remitting over ÂŁ40bn pa from July 2022 it has started to reduce 5 years after our departure and previous commitments were settled?
October 12, 2022
Thats what the new rapprochment is for. The new control group wont be free. They might even call them membership fees or something else.
October 13, 2022
I agree anon, Bill told me the other day there were no savings? How can there be no savings from this year, we no longer have to pay 80% of the VAT on row imports, we are stitched up in Northern Ireland because of this, so if we don’t get that money back what is that all about?
There is a % of UK vat taken by the EU we no longer have to remit that?
The % of GDP that is severely reducing from July 2022. Yet hasn’t been discussed. Why would the markets be spooked if they know our remittances to the EU have fallen?
We are told we’re no longer in Erasmus that must be saving ÂŁ2bn plus all the student loans to EU students we’re saving.
We are told we’re out of the SM and CU so what are we still paying for? I thought we had a deal on free trade both ways?
October 13, 2022
a-tracy that makes the assumption that we did not lose anything by leaving the EU in terms of trade and other subsidies and I blieve we lost quite a lot, as I ahve had to cease trading with a number of countries in the EU due to complicated VAT rules which have now been introduced.
October 13, 2022
We gained our freedom and our independence Billy.
Many brave people have laid down their lives for just that ambition.
And other brave people are doing that noble cause right now in various places on our globe.
October 13, 2022
Peter 2
Again lots of words but no follow up or substantive argument.
Independence in an interdependent world
October 14, 2022
The biggest trading nations into your fabelled Single Market are not members of the EU nor members of the Single Market
There’s a fact for you eubilly.
ps
There is a huge difference between a nation allowing a supranational body to have legal supremacy over them and making voluntary arrangements like a trade agreement which suits both parties
October 14, 2022
bill, we were one of the top 5 contributors after subsidies?
What figures are you using ” I blieve we lost quite a lot” how much?
We were remitting over ÂŁ40 billion per year to the EU this is falling now, how much has trade fallen in a year after covid conditions ended in September 2021?
October 14, 2022
Very well said tracy
October 19, 2022
According to ons.gov.uk âUK contributions to the EU budget (after deducing the abatement), ÂŁ billions, 2010-2018â the figures were:
2010 ÂŁ13 bn, 2011 ÂŁ13 bn, 2012 ÂŁ13.3 bn, 2013 ÂŁ15.8 bn, 2014 ÂŁ14.5 bn, 2015 ÂŁ14.6 bn, 2016 ÂŁ13.95 bn, 2017 ÂŁ12.7, 2018 ÂŁ15.7 bn.
We just have to wait for a few more months and weâll have some contributors here telling us that the UK was paying in excess of ÂŁ100 bn per year to the UK. đ
October 19, 2022
Oops, To the EU âŠ
October 14, 2022
Peter 2
You got it wrong again, this is not about size of trade , but which part of foreign trade as part of GDP and the smaller natios of the EU have some of the highest levels of foreign trade in the world. NL, Sweden, DK, Switzerland and Norway. But you probably missed that as well?
October 16, 2022
NBill, if you have the figures and facts give them to us with sources please. I have been trying to check out your comments and looking at the EU accounts up to 2021 we were still remitting over 40 billion pounds per year to the EU even though we left, so it appears we havenât had the savings we should have had, Yet the EU are âpunishingâ not my words, the UK.
We keep being told the membership fee is small only 9 billion after rebates and targeted refunds, this is a lie. It was always much more than this and we should be getting it back, as you must agree we are outside the EU.
October 12, 2022
I still donât really see the value of all these supposed forecasts.
What a waste of everyoneâs time.
Why not just plant to AVOID disaster?
October 12, 2022
Oh gosh..I forgot.
Project Fear WANTS us to fail!
And do we now have a Social Democrat PM absolutely gagging to take us back into the EU?
October 14, 2022
Peter 2
You got it wrong again, this is not about size of trade , but which part of foreign trade as part of GDP and the smaller natios of the EU have some of the highest levels of foreign trade in the world. NL, Sweden, DK, Switzerland and Norway. But you probably missed that as well?
October 12, 2022
*plan not plant..although actually that might also be a good idea!
October 12, 2022
More perturbing, whatâs the point of the HM Treasury if this government just follows the advise of the OBR, BoE, the UN WEF & UN IMF
October 12, 2022
I thought weâd had the brightest and the best at HM Treasury âŠwe pay them enough
October 13, 2022
glen ….oh dear you haven’t grasped the basics of top Civil Servant employment, have you!
Ability, performance record, public acclaim and pay have no bearing on each other. No wonder your job applications get ignored.
October 19, 2022
âNo wonder your job applications get ignoredâ: I am not sure this is sarcastic or not, but as a sarcasm it would be really brilliant.
October 13, 2022
Forecast – another word for ‘wild guess’.
October 20, 2022
I canât help but notice that Javelin after moaning about the non-availability (according to him) of the OBR forecast code has suddenly become strangely silent once he was given the info where to get the code and the input file for it.
Maybe as a trader he knew how to push a switch and make a code run but is actually unable to look at a code, download it on his PC, modify it (to test the sensitivity of the results to different values of the input parameters), recompile it and use it for another purpose.
Could he be in fact another of the number of windbags on this blog? You know, these who keep say âB/S in, B/S outâ but have in fact a technical knowledge close to zero.
October 12, 2022
Off topic, here is Lord Cormack yesterday trying to tie the government’s hands in its negotiations with the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol, in the same way as Parliament previously tied the government’s hands in its negotiations with the EU over withdrawal:
https://hansard.parliament.uk//lords/2022-10-11/debates/5F4A0A3F-6A35-41E0-AFF0-1B0EFCFFFD84/NorthernIrelandProtocolBill#contribution-5A477FFE-E3D9-4C3E-88F5-30F9D82B706C
“At end insert âand that the Committee should meet not until 18 April 2023, or until His Majestyâs Government has reached a negotiated settlement with the European Union, whichever is earlierâ.”
As Lord Frost had said earlier:
https://hansard.parliament.uk//lords/2022-10-11/debates/13FEB46A-6585-442A-949F-D9DC2DFA70C2/NorthernIrelandProtocolBill#contribution-8E2858E2-F124-40F4-A6DE-E7F751D3ED48
“The crucial point is that any negotiation, if it is to find the right balance between the parties, needs to have a meaningful âwalk awayâ option for both sides. We did not have that in 2019. This Parliament and this House had passed a law prohibiting us from leaving the European Union without a deal.”
October 12, 2022
The writhing death-throes of the serpenting Tory remainers will be a grimly entertaining feature of our lives for the forseeable. Luckily common sense prevailed for once in the Lords:
‘Amendment not moved. Motion agreed.’
October 12, 2022
‘serpentine’ not ‘serpenting’
October 13, 2022
I can’t understand how that law was legal. It was obvious that it put the UK at a great disadvantage and how can that be LEGAL? It beggars belief that the UK allows itself to be legally sabotaged in such a way by sycophants of foreign governments.
October 12, 2022
Dear Sir John–Truss’s “plan” that we keep hearing about is a joke (basically do something, anything, unorthodox) except that it is not funny. She should resign voluntarily to save time and Boris should be re-instated. At least then we, the Tories, would have some chance. As things stand we have none whatsoever. Of course taxes have to go up folowing the huge expenditure recently incurred and to be incurred for years in the future. I hope the people instrumental in ditching Boris hang their heads in shame as they look back at the pifflingly irrelevant reasons for his hopefully temporary demise.
October 12, 2022
I’ve always enjoyed Boris, he’s very entertaining – but if he’s the solution, then we really are doomed!
October 13, 2022
‘enjoyed’ Really? Nudge, wink, mess with unruly hair, grin, blather, quote some unheard of Greek chappie, look around, time to move on, bye…..
October 12, 2022
Leslie Singleton- Surely it’s not a question of the Tories having “some chance” – surely we need in government what’s best for the country irrespective – PM Boris was an unmitigated disaster – a liar and cheat who led the country up the garden path with his bufoonary. We should instead be thinking about reforming politics altogether in this country that’s if we are ever to climb out of the ever downward spiraling hole we have dug for ourselves – ‘quality’ is just not there – we need the people in the grey suits back again- boring drab political people but honest decent people who get the job done without all of the spin and theatrics
October 13, 2022
Jason, I don’t agree that Boris was an unmitigated disaster. He was stopped by various remainer groups from Benn to senior MPs in his own party from getting on and doing what he and Cummins knew needed doing.
We have the “boring, drab political people” back in Truss and Starmer. People are quick to want to jump on not wanting boring. You can’t win.
October 12, 2022
Taxes are at their highest for 70 years and you think they should go up! Are you nuts? People barely have enough money to get by now. And you want to take more off them. Petrolâs up. Gas is up. Food is up. Electricity is up. Mortgages are up. Landlords with mortgages will be putting rent up. And you want taxes up too! Why donât we all just give up and starve.
October 13, 2022
Death and taxes !
October 13, 2022
Raising taxes is not being a Conservative. Re-instating the same man who created the massive debt and taxes in the first place and a burden on the people does not sound like someone who has the remotest grip on reality.
The ‘Boris’ fan club must be a lonely place ?
October 12, 2022
I see – so today we have to believe IMF forecasts ? Got it.
“The IMF does warn countries against wide ranging schemes of price controls and subsidies”. You mean like the current Government’s energy price cap which is open-ended and with no upper limit and is projected to be twice as expensive as what any other country anywhere in the world is providing ? And, by the way, has been delivered in such a politically inept way that the Government is getting no credit at all for providing such a generous scheme. Free handouts for mortgage holders next ?
October 12, 2022
Looking back at the track record of the IMF, 2010 was the only year in the past 20 where the IMF forecast was even close. Most years they have been miles out.
October 12, 2022
Chancellor Gordon Brown ignored them when they told him he was over-spending and carried … until 2007 when the banking crisis effectively stopped him.
Chancellor Kwarteng should also ignore them.
October 12, 2022
Off topic please.
NASA has just announced that its first asteroid deflection test was a success.
So.
Will those Greenists who deem industrialisation to be a bad thing now give humanity a free pass ?
October 13, 2022
Newton’s Laws work. Who knew?
October 12, 2022
Good morning Sir John
As already said who cares about the IMF, their group think has become part of the problem that is a plague on everyone. All the more so following the suggestion to them(the IMF) by the Governor of the BoE that the UK is a basket case due to the Chancellor and this Government. Fight back or retaliation, or a further illustration of ineptitude? – you choose
The only reality is it is not helped by Pension Funds asking for a taxpayer payout after them going over the top with LDI. It is not the taxpayers function to bail out private companies. Let them fail and ensure Government strips them of their assets to support the victims. The taxpayer has to get to be the owner when their (taxpayers)money is used, they should not be seen as the haven of last result for what is looking like fraud/Ponzi schemes run by inept management.
October 13, 2022
IanB from what I read in the FT its public sector pensions, private sector pension companies take the hit, have you checked your pot down around 15% on average.
October 12, 2022
Now that Germany has to buy US and other gas at world prices, which increased when someone blew up any chance of non liquefied gas being available in sufficient quantity, the negative growth could be larger than predicted. It will take time for them to dig enough lignite out and burn it flat out. Their CO2/ kWh is likely to go back beyond 500 to Polish levels of 700+. Hows that for Biden’s green agenda?
October 12, 2022
Interestingly I saw news yesterday that Hungary and Serbia are building a new oil pipeline to Russia, because their existing pipeline is becoming redundant due to Croatia (which it crosses through) imposing the EU sanctions. Hungary refuses to adopt the sanctions itself, and Serbia has decided to ignore EU threats regarding using Russian oil.
It seems some countries are actually looking after their population’s needs, against the wishes of the EU/WEF/USA.
Footnote…thus was reported on Al Jazeera, I’m not sure it was on the BBC.
October 13, 2022
There is no such thing as fair play in the EU Wanderer it was always one rule for the UK a different one for others allowed to get away with work arounds.
October 13, 2022
Acting independently? Naughty Hungary! – and Serbia you won’t pass the ‘kiss our arse ‘ test doing that!
October 12, 2022
So the BoE will continue to assist pension companies, possibly at a loss to the government which would carry on the policy of the poor subsidising the rich.
October 12, 2022
M.M
Why did the Pension companies purchase such poor investments in the first place.
Who in their right mind would purchase a 30 year Bond that pays a return of just 1% per year, and then is surprised that they are worth less than you paid for them when interest rates rise. Or am I missing Something !
The more I see/hear of the workings of the financial services Industry, the more I despair at the shambles they always seem to make of it.
No talk about all the extra profit they are now going to make on the existing lousy fixed Annuity rates they have sold and agreed to over the last 15 years !
Always seems to be heads they win, tails the Taxpayer and Customers always lose.
October 13, 2022
I note that Andrew Bailey was in charge of the Prudential Regulation Authority from 2013 to 2016 when he became head of the FCA. In neither role did he appear to consider leveraged debt instruments to be risky for pension funds.
October 12, 2022
And, we should listen to the IMF, why?
October 12, 2022
Because this government is a fully paid up member of the UN philosophy of world governance, its gone completely woke, is still subservient to the EU and doesnât really understand the term âsovereigntyâ
October 12, 2022
Unlike the critical statement that the IMF (rather surprisingly) made about the UK min-budget a week or so back, this report seems to have had no coverage on the main media channels- although it was covered briefly on GB News. It can be quite informative to move between TV channels and see what they are focused on at any one time. Spotting what’s being ignored is also an enjoyable game. It’s called being ‘Economical with the News’
October 12, 2022
When did the IMF revise its forecasts? Before or after Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget, the BoE’s response
and the concomitant triggering of problems in the defined benefit pensions industry with increasing margin calls on risky derivative investments and the declining trend in Sterling exchange? Will they need to re-revise?
October 12, 2022
” The IMF said its forecast was prepared before the UK government unveiled its mini-budget on 23 September, and that it would have lifted its estimate for the 2023 growth rate âsomewhatâ if it had known about it earlier. “
October 12, 2022
So we go from gloom to boom?
The World, EU and UK growth and outlook seem to be revised after every commentator’s verdict.
October 12, 2022
First a tax cut, then not a tax cut. The BoE Governor says he won’t back the pound after this week, then the BoE says he will. What the hell is going on? How could you have supported such an amateur outfit with no idea what to do other than some scruffy piece of dogma dredged up to try to be different. Truss said she had a clear plan, but as we have to wait another 3 weeks to hear it whilst the markets chew lumps out of us, clearly she didn’t. We are being experimented on (not for the first time by a loony tunes numpties). We didn’t want Sunak either. You need a better system of choosing a leader than one based on who offers the best jobs. Meanwhile, bye bye Tories, the goose is cooked and we will pay without getting a taste.
October 12, 2022
None of this is relevant. How can it be. We are supposed to be in debt but borrow billions and pay interest to give it away in foreign aid. Even to countries that are building aircraft carries greater than our own and have space programs. I can assure you, if my account was in the red and I asked to borrow money so that I could give it away I would get told where to go. So until I understand why we do this, The arguments make no sense at all.
October 12, 2022
Dear BW,
Your argument is unanswerable, except perhaps in the case of disaster relief. It would be different if we only had to borrow for overseas aid in one or two bad years but it has been and will continue to be every year. One answer is to raise a specific new aid levy to raise the same amount that we give. On internet purchases, credit card balances or some non-transferable computer trading perhaps.
October 12, 2022
Regrettably who ever gets elected will make no difference to the chaos surrounding all of us.
The Torys are in power at the moment.Can they turn things around before the next election?
I believe labour are in a worse mess.
A coalition?
God help us.
October 12, 2022
What the hell are you people playing at !!
Bail out all private worker pesnion funds now, and reverse the Gordon Brown destruction.
The money can be found by stopping all immigrant 4 star and stately home accomodation, and putting them into tents somewhere.
October 12, 2022
+1
Very good question!
Agree entirely.
October 12, 2022
MWB… Yeah blame the foreigners again.. it’s always someone else’s fault
October 12, 2022
Gary3 – Blaming the policy is not blaming the immigrant… but I suspect you know that already.
All of you do it. Deliberately turn a reasonable comment on policy on its head and accuse he who made it of racism. You’ve managed to shut down debate for over 20 years using this method.
October 20, 2022
What an interesting comment: with T.May, P.Patel, S.Braverman in the Home Office we have had at least three Home Secretaries who put immigration right at the top of their concerns. To say as you do that ââweâ have managed to shut down debate for over 20 yearsâ is pretty rich as these three ministers have had that on their agenda for at least 12 years.
To say the successive Home Secretaries have been found wanting is fine, to say it is because of ⊠who exactly? the globalists, the EU, the French, the WEF, ⊠is a bitty simplistic, donât you think?
October 12, 2022
What the hell are you people playing at !!
Bail out all private worker pension funds now, and reverse the Gordon Brown destruction.
The money can be found by stopping all immigrant 4 star and stately home accommodation, and putting them into tents somewhere.
October 12, 2022
From the MsM
Chancellor says economic challenges fuelled by ‘barbaric’ Putin
Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng said: “Countries around the world are facing challenges right now, particularly as a result of high energy prices driven by Putin’s barbaric action in Ukraine.â
I would respectfully suggest, the UKâs economic woes are as a result of successive UK Governments failures, as they have ensured the UK was no longer resilient and secure but cap-in-hand reliant on the political whims of others. So much neglect that it looks like a conspiracy.
October 13, 2022
It’s not me, it’s ‘im.
October 12, 2022
Dear Sir John,
I have some questions I would be grateful you could answer in future posts:
1) Why are Conservative MPs threatening to stop the Governmentâs fracking policy.?Are their seats more important than the countryâs economic security? Cheaper energy benefits the poorest in our society.
2) When I check the National Grid app, we are sometimes using coal fired power stations. However, the GW output of coal power is less than the GW we are exporting to France and the other countries on the interconnector. Why are we polluting our atmosphere to help other counties? Surely that CO gets put on our pollution statistics?
October 13, 2022
When the power cuts arrive, and they will, those MP’s and their constituents who are obstructing fracking should be the first to have their energy supplies cut. Then maybe, living in the cold and the dark will help change their minds ?
October 13, 2022
On your second question you are right that we are burning extra coal and gas to keep the French supplied, and this uses up carbon allowances that were meant for use to supply the UK market. As no extra allowances are issued for the exports, or even transferred out of the EU scheme, this forces up UKA carbon prices to the disbenefit of UK consumers, since it serves to raise the cost of the power we use. The convention seems to be that interconnector power is treated as zero carbon, whatever its true origins. When France has its massive nuclear complex at Gravelines, along the cost from Calais towards Dunkerque, operating at capacity we can be sure that any imports coming over the interconnector from France originate there via the direct transmission lines to the start of IFA1 and Eleclink (both are near the Sangatte/Coquelles Chunnel terminal). Equally, the large coal fired MPP3 station at Maasvlakte, Rotterdam is next door to the HVDC converter station at the start of Britned, so any time it is running it feeds its output to Britned exports to the UK.
October 12, 2022
When did PMQâs turn into the national embarrassing pantomime that it has become. It has become a complete waste of time. Ridiculous questions, sound bites, but worse the MPâs behaviour resembling an audience at Dick Whittington. To think this can be viewed all over the world makes me shudder.
October 12, 2022
John,
The divorce bill was the amount the UK has agreed to pay in settlement of its outstanding liabilities when its leaves the EU.
Aren’t a big % of those outstanding liabilities coming to an end now?
Won’t we have the VAT tax savings to spend on the UK urgent needs? For a start we won’t be paying the near ÂŁ2bn across for taxes on prostitution and drugs. The VAT on world imports each year. A % of UK VAT or will we?
October 13, 2022
Assuming the EU does not fine us for something, and assuming that the government does not find a way to keep paying the Danegeld, I assume they, the government, will just quietly pocket all the money. Only to waste it.
October 13, 2022
Well, Mark, they have committed to spending an extra ÂŁ1bn, yes, one billion more per week on the NHS than in 2015. I don’t care what Terese Coffey looks like; these personal attacks on her always sound like she might have the opposition spooked; I hope she does shake up the 15 most poorly performing trusts.
October 13, 2022
Mark, why didn’t Kwarsi just say I have the extra money available from Brexit? That we are no longer remitting to the EU because weren’t we told the divorce terms terminated five years on a sliding reducing scale after the UK voted to leave and settled our pre-agreed commitments.
We are out of the Single Market and Customs Union, being “punished” as the EU keeps telling us.
October 12, 2022
Yesterday 11th October 2022.
Number of migrants detected in small boats: 374
Number of boats detected: 7
Just another 374 pizzas and accommodation at a prestige hotel
October 13, 2022
and jabs, and health care checks followed by ‘are you with relatives here?’ (asked in several languages) – entitling them to better rooms. Issue of charge card to facilitate daily spending allowance, what mobile do you have- need a charger? Clothing allowance to follow.
October 12, 2022
Petrol pump price increased today by 3p âŠa few years ago this would have prompted an urgent question in the house
October 13, 2022
The urgent question is why are relations between the US and Saudi now so sour, despite the fact that Biden has failed to permit more leases for drilling.
October 12, 2022
We shouldnât take any notice of international institutions such as the UN, IMF, WEF, OECD, World Bank etc. or national equivalents like the OBR, IFS, The Resolution Foundation etc. as theyâve all succumbed to Robert Conquestâs second and third laws of politics.
But then so has our Government and Parliament who use these organisations as an excuse to ignore the implementation of the manifesto pledges upon which they were elected.
To quote Mrs Merkel, 2018 in Berlin :
âNation states must today be prepared to give up their sovereignty and that sovereign nation states must not listen to the will of their citizens when it comes to questions of immigration, borders, or even sovereignty.â
October 13, 2022
put simply ‘u vill do as I say or else!’
October 12, 2022
Whatâs the thinking here? House repossessions and business bankruptcies desired? Dampen the massive demand coursing through the economy? It seems inane and insane to me. Yes, my savings will earn a bit of interest, which Iâll be remitting to my sons to help them pay their mortgages. Because, Mr. Redwood, theyâve been duped by your governmentâs ridiculous policy of bank base rate close to zero for 12 years.
And please donât insult our intelligence by saying it was an independent Bank of England decision.
October 12, 2022
Much of the present economic and political problem is that Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng seemingly thought (as U.K. national debt was low relative to other major countries) they could boost the economy and their electoral chances just by borrowing and considerably increasing the national debt for two years until the next general election. Even they must have thought public spending cuts would have come after the general election as they must realise incurring extra debt cannot go on for ever.
This strategy has fallen apart and now there needs to be spending cuts (maybe Truss is now hoping to disguise them as below inflation increases to public spending) which is causing political problems. The best political case for them, an economic funding emergency caused mainly by having to make huge fuel subsidies to save most households from penury has been missed. Most people would understand and accept public expenditure cuts to save them from huge personal hardship in paying for fuel. Yet that pretext is not really available now as it was not presented at the same time as the fuel subsidies. Result, massive political problems not helped by many ‘Conservative’ M.P.s unrealistically opposing most public spending cuts while insisting on having the fuel subsidies.
October 12, 2022
Nigel Farage has warned that immigration is now a nightmare for the next election since few MPs dare say the word due to fear of the dreaded unmentionable ( Arh!) word….
October 13, 2022
Official figures: Total 1769 since Monday this week. 539 Monday / 13 boats. 374 / 7 boats Tuesday.
856 yesterday, Weds. 12/10 in 19 boats.
3462 total in 76 boats so far this month, total 12 days. Figures would be far higher had there not been 5 days recorded with zero arrivals since 01 October.
October 12, 2022
The two main issues for the UK are stupid money spent on furlough and stupid money spent on public spending ongoing.
Spending MUST be cut! It is so obvious!
We have employment headroom to remove 75% of admin staff in NHS or sell it to Google or similar to do the same.
Get people into work by tightening entitlement to benefits!
Get the Scottish referendum out of the way by doing a deal that they either vote for independence or stay and lose their Parliaments and Barnett formula!
Set a price for gas which is lower than market now but increases 5% a year to bring in cash to government when costs fall!
This is relatively easy to solve, without the ÂŁ getting crippled.
October 13, 2022
Does the IMF have any clue what it’s doing?
Does the OBR have any clue what it’s doing?
Why do we contribute to the IMF and when do we scrap the OBR?