I always thought Liz Truss would win the leadership election contest. Her stance that the economic establishment was letting us down, that we needed a new pro growth policy was both right and popular. We were living through an inflationary surge created by Bank and Treasury mistakes over interest rates and money printing, and faced shortages thanks to policies which throttled UK output of energy, food and other essentials facing international shortages. So it proved, with a relatively easy victory from the membership. Rishi got more MP votes than Liz on the penultimate Ā ballot, Ā but come the final Liz even had the support of a majority of the MPs.
When I offered Liz economic Ā advice in preparation for being PM I proposed a three part budget, containing tax cuts, spending reductions and supply side measures including transport and energy capacity and amended business regulation to speed growth.
She and her chosen Chancellor made no secret of their disagreement with Treasury and Bank officials. They just replaced the one, the Permanent Secretary to the Treasury, though it seemed they ended Ā up with a replacement likely to stick with the old austerity theory.
When the budget appeared it failed to spell out the spending and borrowing plans. It added to an affordable Ā£45 bn tax cut package a large Ā£80 billion spending package on energy support taking the total stimulus higher than the Ā one I thought affordable. The tax cuts would likely have produced more revenue than official forecasting given the way faster growth always surprises the official forecasters by the rate of increase in revenues. Ā The supply side measures were feeble reflecting a general lack of interest in Whitehall in developing them.
The Bank announced higher interest rates and bond sales to depress the market the day before the budget package. Clearly the daily conversations between Chancellor and Governor did not cover the crucial question of handling market responses, or it did and reflected the disagreement between them about the go for growth approach.
It is not unusual to have some friction between official advice and Ministerial decisions. What is unusual is to see a PM give in at the first challenge to a cherished policy. Because gilts fell, only to recover as soon as Ā the Bank said it wanted long rates lower and prices higher, the PM was persuaded first to cancel one small tax cut the Opposition did not like, then to replace her Chancellor. That turned out to be to dump practically all the tax cuts but not the more expensive energy subsidies.
The Establishment said the Uk had to return to austerity and had to put up taxes to make it considerably less competitive . What is amazing is the PM agreed to all this. As her departing Chancellor warned her, that would mean her end as PM. So it proved. We need to ask why and how this happened. It also has meant as some of us warned higher prospective borrowing, as the recession it brings will depress revenues.
January 1, 2023
Good morning,
There are one or two things that have not been covered here. The rise in US interest rates and the language used by a certain, ‘newly appointed’ person which was not seem as right and proper.
Leaving that all aside, I think Liz Truss made only one crucial error. And that was the choice of Chancellor. A crucial appointment.
But the Establishment wanted a G.S. puppet and that is what we got.
January 1, 2023
The main thing not addressed here is the role that Conservative MPs played in this. Having spent months working to their party rulebook – accepting members’ votes – they were then complicit in overturning both that rulebook and their party members by not backing Truss and her ideas to the hilt. It was blatant hypocrisy, and for what? A slither of a chance of the Snake giving them a job in his tech hedge fund boutique in 3 years’ time? A small chance of an invitation to a lavish party and a swim up north?
For that reason – and for myriad other reasons – they won’t get my vote or that of many many others.
January 1, 2023
Er … it is patently not true that Liz Truss was defenestrated because she gave into establishment demands.
She issued one of the largest tax-cutting proposals this country without consulting the OBR, who provide the economic figures on which the proposals is based. Bond markets, which have come to expect the OBR’s input as standard, thought the budget had been pulled out of a hat.
Consequently UK borrowing rates went up as the international financial markets lost trust in Truss’s competence. After that the writing was on the wall. She looked like she didn’t know what she was doing. And that is a mortal mistake.
January 1, 2023
Go back and look at the detail, and look at the dates.
January 1, 2023
Ignoramus,
Plausible but false.
Major led the most disastrous economic plan in our history by his fanatical plan to join ERM. If the Treasury and BOE worked against him as both did against Truss then our country was sunk. In fact if both had not done all they could to help fantastical Major the EU dream was done. Both helped to fight another day for the EU. Labour was not going to quash that EU dream.
Just imagine what would have happened if Treasury and BoE worked against Useless Brown in 2008? Interest rates were lowered to historic lows and kept there for over ten years!! Banks were not allowed to fail. You might also remember Fred Goodwin was a Brown advisor and in charge of Royal Bank of Scotland. Remind us what happened to Royal Bank of Scotland after reckless buying of another bank? The taxpayer footed the bank bill but Goodwin got his gold plated pension far more than the public sector pensions cited by many on this site.
Therefore it was a pro EU remainer coup. The gutless Tory MPs did to want to stick up for Truss and definitely did not want another fare election for PM. Truss should have appointed an intelligent experienced performer like JR to chief sec of Treasury (brains and experience but lacked quota characteristic) and let her useless mate Kwartang be a figure head chancellor. Kwartang was an utterly useless pro net stupid Business Secretary, with no pro growth agenda. But quota appointments were adopted as pointed out by Dowden. Merit and ability has no place in the Marxist Tory party.
January 1, 2023
Lord Frost today in DT acknowledges that āweāre not really conservativesā !! He also states if not for UKIP and Brexit Party the country would still be in the EU. And high tax economics!! Remember Frost resigned because of left wing direction of his govt.
There you have it from inside JRās party.
January 1, 2023
Indeed. It’s not enough to have the right policies, one has to implement them appropriately and keep as many people (including those who may be your political adversaries) as possible on board. Truss was tone deaf to criticism, dumped on a chancellor who was following their jointly agreed policies and had no charisma to win over doubters. Her ineptitude has made convincing people of a low tax, small state Conservatism more difficult.
January 1, 2023
Ignoramus, two key planks of her announcement were kept.
The biggest of the two tax cutting proposals when she cut the national insurance tax by increasing the personal allowance before NI becomes payable from Ā£9570 to Ā£12570 for everyone. She also dropped the extra 2% charge originally proposed by Sunak when Chancellor.
And the energy help out fund, a massive cost compared to the higher rate reduction which was intended to bring in more tax as it did when Osborne did it reducing Browns last hurrah tax trap increase by half.
January 1, 2023
JR,
Sunak says in the papers today back Britain and we will get back stronger. Well does the use of Britain mean he has finally agreed to give away N.Ireland? Secondly, why did he not back Britain by awarding the building of our warships in Britain? Why did he give the contract to Spain and fitting out in N.Ireland under EU tariffs, laws, rules and regs? Making it very hard for GB business to compete by the border down the Irish Sea, checking of goods from one part of our country to another under EU control? Is he on top of his brief or lying to dupe the public?
Manufacture of mini to China because Sunakās energy policy to stop fracking, drilling for oil, gas and storage of the same. Same for manufacture of steel passing to China. Why is Sunak buying twice the amount of fracked gas from US when there is no current storage and opened up gas inter connector to Germany? Is that putting Britain or Germany first?
It sounds very much like his false claim that he will implement the 2019 manifesto and act in stark contrast ie tax rises!!
Sunak and Hunt rejected by party and country taking Great Britain in a direction that the nation and public do not want! Still you might get a vote from LL.
JR, your views welcome whether he is telling the truth?
January 1, 2023
Did you know, PM Sunak once said that he was a low tax Conservative ? I know , who would have thought it ?
/sarc
January 1, 2023
Sarc for low tax or conservativeš
I think what he meant was high print, high inflation, high tax, high waste, big state chancellor in history now deflecting blame on anyone or anything.
January 1, 2023
Penny Mordaunt would have made a better PM with widespread support within the country. Conservative MPs stitched her nomination up by setting such a high threshold. At least one MP chose not to back her, claiming she could not reach it, yet in the event she was reported as being extremely close to qualifying. Had she done so, or had her so-called āfriendsā not acted against her, the Conservative Party would be better supported and much more electable.
January 2, 2023
š she could not tell you what a man and woman is!
January 2, 2023
Hope:
Most of us know what a man and a woman are without guidance, and Penny Mordaunt is a fine woman.
January 1, 2023
+1
January 1, 2023
The forgotten strangeness of that episode was that Ms Truss was the one that appointed Hunt; one must conclude that she had completely lost all sense of control and confidence and simply acquiesced to outside influences.
Apparently Mr Sunak has a ‘grand plan’, according to the teaser on the Express; I have no doubt it will be as ‘conservative’ and as beneficial to the UK as an EU Commission diktat .
January 1, 2023
Yes, she had lost control. But the fact was that nobody helped, nobody spoke up for her. Yes, she was a bit daft to not include spending cuts in the budget. But she was probably warned that those oh so loyal Tory MPs wouldn’t stomach spending cuts. It just shows the Tory party cannot be trusted to follow their old instincts to grow into the future. It’s a dead parrot.
January 1, 2023
āBut the Establishment wanted a G.S. puppet and that is what we got.ā
Yes, the British equivalent of a Vichy government was quietly installed. Instead of a famous war general they put a young no mark in charge. A resistance movement is also conspicuous by its absence.
A passive/phlegmatic population put up with it. In France they famously had a Revolution and as recently as 1936 a French Prime Minister, Leon Blum, was dragged out of his car and nearly beaten to death by a mob.
January 1, 2023
It all happened because there are enough people in the country vicious enough to give the Tories a majority.
January 1, 2023
I doubt they’ll have a majority come the next election
January 1, 2023
Another comment from you, lad, where all you do is you point the finger at other people. Not using a handkerchief when sneezing, voting Conservative, they’re all a bad lot, you seem to be saying. It must be good to feel you’re the only decent person in the midst of these horrible ignorant masses.
I’d yet to hear anyone being called ‘vicious’ for voting for a different political party. But perhaps this shows the sort of censorious moralising we get from the Left nowadays.
January 1, 2023
I think they foolishly thought they would get a Conservative, stable, honest, trustworthy Government with steady expertise in Cabinet. Sounds laughable now, doesn’t it!
January 1, 2023
Vicious – you really are losing it NLH.
I tell you what is vicious, your terminology.
It is vicious to gun down a young girl on a night out with friends in a pub in Liverpool.
This is vicious – https://www.londonworld.com/news/crime/london-teenage-homicides-2022-names-faces-every-young-person-killed-capital-this-year-3804019
The Tories in comparison have taken in 45,000 immigrants this year and given them accommodation, food, clothes, care, and more.
The Tories in comparison have led in aid to the Ukraine war.
The Tories have maintained the Triple Lock for all the thanks they got for all the money theyāre dolling out. Inflation linked benefits the whole pack of cards is about to fall and you call them -vicious!
January 1, 2023
Not sure ‘aiding a war’ is a good thing to be doing, A-Tracy. Nor am I sure I want another Ā£3bn of our money spent on it this year.
January 1, 2023
Bill, I agree with you, I donāt understand when we are frequently told we are just a little isolated Country now weāre outside of the EU why we are taking such a lead in aid. When America gave us aid when we joined in the European wars they loaned it to us, not gifted it and weāve only just paid it back, are these billions gifts or loans?
January 1, 2023
A coup by any other name ā¦the parliamentary party is to blame for either its action or inaction
If Liz was still PM, weād be welcoming a growth and reduced taxation in 2023 …unlike Sunak who has already proclaimed that 2023 will be difficult
January 1, 2023
Liz Truss was just extremely unintelligent – to put it mildly! The only reason she won the leadership contest was because she was the ‘not Sunak’ candidate. Her cabinet appointments were an absolute joke, and her betrayal of our host – whom she should have made Chancelor – was a disgrace and sealed her fate. This was the last opportunity the Tories had to turn things round electorally. She had two years to turn the government into a patriotic, nationalist one that made decisions based on the interests of Britain and the British people, not globalist priorities. She failed and the Tory party is now finished. Good riddance to it.
January 1, 2023
+1
January 1, 2023
Well poor Truss never had a chance given the make up of Tory MPs. They, Sunak and the Treasury/BoE had already ditched one PM and were not going to let the members push another one on to them. The problem is the net zero, tax to death policies of Sunak and Hunt will raise less tax and kill the economy.
January 1, 2023
The problem is that Sunak and Hunt got there in the first place. As our host says, the underlying reasons and mechanism for foisting this dreadful duo on the Great British public deserves uncovering.
January 1, 2023
The choice of a PM with no economics understanding was the biggest mistake.
January 1, 2023
Truss was previously Chief Sec to the Treasury and studied PPE at Uni (the E standing for Economics).
But don’t let the facts get in the way.
January 1, 2023
Donna
So why did she make so many foot faults in such a short time
January 1, 2023
āTruss was previously Chief Sec to the Treasury and studied PPE at Uni (the E standing for Economics).ā
Donna now look what you have done. See below.
Are you playing the straight man role (Ernie Wise) for Lifelogicās Eric Morecambe ?
January 1, 2023
Truss let down by the 277 pro EU remainer MPs who wanted UK vassalage to EU I suggest.
January 1, 2023
Very True
January 1, 2023
Sunak I assume you mean as he was what one who made such a mess at chancellor with Net Zero, the over reaction to Covid, the money debasing, the woke lunacy, the tax borrow and piss down the drain agenda?
He was the one printing/debasing the currency. If you print money privately you are called a counterfeiter and arrested. If the BoE and Chancellor do it is it just the same and the same should apply.
January 1, 2023
Indeed.
Delighted to hear that Lady Hussey will now be invited to the coronation I hope she gets a prime position, good that King Charles has moved on this issue from his very silly initial position. The excellent Nana Akua had exactly the right take on the issue on GBNews yesterday.
January 1, 2023
We need an urgent investigation into the many bogus charities and foundations that have sprung up in recent years that are being funded through local authority and taxpayer subsidies. What is the Charities Commission doing to audit these? Are they fit for purpose?
January 1, 2023
Personally I would abolish tax relief for all but a few real charities and make it related to real genuine charitable expenditure. An excellent book isThe Great Charity Scandal: What Really Happens to the Billions We Give to Good Causes? Paperback ā March 17, 2015
by Mr David Craig (Author)
January 1, 2023
Christine
This is a VERY big can of worms to open.
January 1, 2023
Lets hope she declines to comment.
January 1, 2023
S J S
Agree but it may well be wishful thinking.
January 1, 2023
Yes and Truss believed in net zero which is incompatible with sustainable long term growth anyway
January 1, 2023
Indeed PPE graduates often fall for any old drivel not having the logic, physics or science ability to challenge these daft religions. But then nearly 95% of MPs have fallen for this drivel.
January 1, 2023
Did she? Or was she holding back diplomatically? A PM in a complex modern “democracy” can’t take on every powerful group at once. She started to change the Net Zero energy policy.
January 1, 2023
+1
January 1, 2023
LL,
a daft comment from a person self declared maths, science etc. You still advocate Tory. How many elections over 13 years have they upheld their election promises? Let me help you, zero. How many times have they implemented Labour policies, hired former Labour ministers, have Labour activists in No.10 and OBR. How many times have you blogged tax, spend and piss down the drain? Keep banging your head against a wall you might find it still hurts after the fourth or fifth time!
JR is in a socialist pro EU remain party (277MPs wanted vassalage and Sunak/Hunt currently implementing that agenda). Heaton-Harris not supporting DUP or act of union, he is punishing DUP to cave in to EU demands over N.Ireland protocol and to rub salt into the wounds gave building of our warships to EU when forcing a recession on GB!!
January 1, 2023
Not really, but given the system that pertains what is your solution?
January 1, 2023
LL,
I agree with a lot of what you say but not voting for this socialist Marxist outfit pretending to be Tories.
Vote with your feet and what you believe in. Logic and cogent thinking graphically shows JRās party cannot be trusted with anything.
Reform is the only Conservative party.
January 1, 2023
LL,
Frost makes clear in his DT article that they are not really conservative and are pursuing high tax economics!! This from inside JRās party. Frost resigned because was headed in another direction. Lord Agnew resigned because of Sunakās school boy errors wasting nearly Ā£12 billion stopping any investigation while hiking taxes!!
January 1, 2023
LL,
Brady claimed throughout the summer the process was necessary to give membership a vote despite huge national problems. In stark contrast quite content to appoint Sunak without membership vote!! Like all socialist Tory promises, once elected get discarded.
Truss was a quota appointment under Cameron, her performance was mediocre at best. Cummings warned everyone about her style and shooting from the hip without thinking matters through. You might recall Raab led the co7 try to run away from Afghanistan while on holiday and truss gave the Taliban a Ā£100 million of our taxes!! The same govt telling us the Taliban were terrorists and our enemy and the purpose for being there for 20 years!! What was all the loss of life limb for let alone vast billions of our taxes!!
Dowden as party chair made it clear his party would appoint by quota rather than ability. Look at current ministerial appointments, woeful I would not have them run a whelk stall.
January 1, 2023
Ahem. The UNPREDICTABLE (to the Establishment) rise of Liz Truss, and the EXPECTED (to the Establishment) fall of Liz Truss. Many of us called that fall a coup.
Happy New Year to you Sir John, and to all readers and of your (life-sustaining) Diary.
January 1, 2023
It clearly was a coup led one assumes by Sunak and Hunt & against Tory Party Members.
January 1, 2023
Yes and Sunak will not sit on the opposition benches after the GE. He will renew his Green Card and skedaddle off to the US. H never had any regard for the UK long term and just wanted to add ‘PM’ to his CV. Hunt, who knows? Some misguided corporation will probably take him, like the risible offer to Clegg who, though talentless is making shed loads of money out of his contacts.
January 1, 2023
And Gove.
January 1, 2023
I was hoping never to hear that name thoughout 2023
January 1, 2023
+1
January 1, 2023
Listen to Sunakās childish new year message speach.
He blames everything on Covid and Putin. Not at all Sunak the main problems were caused by the insanity of net zero and the governmentās moronic over reaction to Covid with the extended lockdowns. The inflation caused by Sunakās money printing (and net zero) and Sunak tax, borrow, print and piss down the drain agenda.
He claims to be ācontrolling immigrationā sure Sunak over 1 million was it 500k net? Public services nearly all of them a sick joke and the highest taxes for 70 years.
January 1, 2023
Yes, his NY message was awful ….. do they really think we have the memory of a golfish and they’ll get away with drivel like that!
January 1, 2023
Seems so.
January 1, 2023
Enough columns in the press today by Conservative leaning commentators blame the lockdown and money-printing antics of Sunak, way above anything before or since. He is indeed a 6th form brain in 6th form clothing.
January 1, 2023
a Norman Wisdom if ever there was
January 1, 2023
She was going against Davos instructions. Once taxes are implemented they must never be cut
Hunt is doing their work for them guided by fishy
Neither has the interests of Britain in focus.
The government is a complete failure and matking time to lose the next election.
No ideas, no interest.
January 1, 2023
What worries me Ian is the amount of damage they will inflict on us before we have a chance of getting rid of them! Then they will be followed by Blairs dog, Stammer, we are in a mess for being so trustful,
January 1, 2023
Sunak ends his New Year message with āThe government I lead is putting your priorities firstā So he clearly thinks these are:- Expensive intermittent net zero energy lunacy, road blocking and the war on motorists, highest taxes for 70+ years and still increasing further, open door legal and illegal immigration generally low skilled so as to depress living standards and wages and increase pressure on schools, housing, police, roadsā¦, dire public services in all directionsā¦
Does he ever speak to any constituents or voters?
January 1, 2023
Having just finished reading the Spectator article (Christmas Eve by Samuel Gregg), about why we should be concerned about the WEF; Sunak, who appears to be a Davis man, probably thinks his actions are for our best interests. (But translate that to mean the best interests of Davos man in achieving their goals of controlling the ālittle manā – us.
January 1, 2023
+1
January 1, 2023
Does he think the public want the woke & diversity lunacy and anti-white man racists recruitment policies too? This rather than on merit? How many die in the NHS because they recruited surgeons on this basis?
January 1, 2023
Soldiers of a WEF army more like. Notice they are all fighting age, Lifelogic.
January 1, 2023
Truss made one existential mistake, she appointed the wrong man as Chancellor.
I remember an eminent Conservative saying that Mrs T agreed with monetarism, but did she understand it? You need a very deep understanding to argue the case and stand firm. Thatās why Mrs T appointed Alan Walters – to manufacture the bullets for her to fire at a confident Chancellor. Iām afraid Mrs Truss is not the half of Mrs T.
January 1, 2023
Alas Mrs T did not stick with Alan Walters very sound advice. She appointed the fool John Major as Chancellor (not even a maths or science O level) and even let him join the ERM! Burying the party for 3+ terms.
Reply I replaced Alan as Economic adviser for the middle period and kept us out of the ERM which Bank and Treasury wanted to join. After I left the pressures on her to join were too great and that meant the end of her and good policy.
January 1, 2023
To reply, thanks I have not remembered that.
January 1, 2023
Yes Alan Walters is no longer available, but JR is! Truss agrees with sound economic policy, but did not herself have the wherewithal which is not a problem because that is what the Cabinet is for: to appoint people with a deep understand of subjects so that they know when the civil servants start pulling wool, for instance.
Any successful PM needs one great attribute without which we are all lost! They need to know which brains to pick!
The Great Mrs T did, until she was worn down and stripped of those with huge ability and her politics!
The second Mrs T Iām afraid, did not.
I think modern politicians think these jobs are easy. They see incompetent people in them and think – I can do that if he/she can. They donāt carry the weight of Authority responsibly.
January 1, 2023
I recall a dinner at which Alan Walters was guest speaker during the height of his power under Thatcher. He elucidated excellent arguments for policy despite the pain of high interest rates. Done with humour as well. Afterwards I felt the economy was in good hands.
January 1, 2023
Dear Mark, I also recall Walters being the guest speaker at an industry conference called to persuade Mrs T’s government to adopt a private finance intiative to overcome Budget investent spending curbs. Instead the star speaker condemned the idea as public spending on the never-never that would destroy spending discipline. Sadly, PFI was later adopted by John Major and Walters has proved to be right.
January 1, 2023
+1
January 1, 2023
“We need to ask why and how this happened.”
Excellent question with which to start the new year! It opens the doors to a great deal of speculation, much of which would be dismissed as piffle by those not wanting anyone to answer it.
I can’t do such a big question justice, but I think Vaclav Havel’s 2011 essay “The powers of the powerless” goes a long way to providing answers. There are free downloads available online. Whatever your politics, don’t be put off that it’s by Havel. He examines what he terms the “post-totalitarian” system (that nowadays passes for democracy) brilliantly.
The section starting with “This is why life in the system is so thoroughly permeated with hypocrisy and lies ” is wonderfully prescient: ” the lack of free expression becomes the highest form of freedom; farcical elections become the highest form of democracy; banning independent thought becomes the most scientific of world views…”.
As its title suggests, it does give us hope, too. So it’s a great read with which to start the new year.
January 1, 2023
Liz Truss’s instincts were admirable but anyone who saw her disastrous time as Foreign Secretary ( unable to recognise the difference between the Baltic and the Black Sea or between Russian land and Ukrainian) knew she would be lost in planning and cutting the parasite state. Reducing taxes without that was a road to failure.
January 1, 2023
Truss is the Michael Foot of the Tory Party. Foot did not have the ālongest suicide note in historyā – he had the best policy for the U.K. the problem is that the policy was traduced by association with him.
Norris McWhirter thought we (brexiteers) lost the Common Market referendum because Tony Benn supported our side.
I can think of nothing worse than having the entirely wrong people propose and support the correct policy, because so many people do not evaluate the policy but look at its proponents.
How long can we afford to have lightweight people in power when we have the giants on the back benches?
January 1, 2023
I’ve just finished reading ‘Out of the Blue’, by Harry Cole and would recommend it to anyone disgusted by the events of the past few months. Liz Truss isn’t perfect, and she was in many ways the architect of her own downfall, but she had an essentially Conservative vision for the economy that Sunak lacks. It’s down to the backbenchers to get Sunak back on track this year, encouraging enterprise by companies and self-reliance by individuals. Your party’s polling remains awful.
P.S. The most disturbing observation in the book? That the Treasury and Hunt ‘hate Defence’.
January 1, 2023
Truss certainly was not perfect – an ex LibDim, a remainer and a not too bright PPE lass but she was never give a chance the Sunak and PPE knives we out for her from day zero.
The economic problems were caused by Sunak’s policies as Chancellor not by a few days of Kwasi/Truss whose policies were far better in reality.
January 1, 2023
The collapse came not from the mini-budget, which was on the right lines, but within hours of Truss herself asserting that she would not fund it with cuts-to-wasteful-spending.
Truss caused her own collapse. She does not pay attention to detail, does not master her brief.
Mind you, nobody can accuse Boris of mastering a brief either.
January 1, 2023
Not gonna happen. New Year prediction:
We need to lose these two losers in 2024 and hit rock bottom with Starmer 2027-2028 before any resurgence in around 2034, having experienced 5-10 years of honest to goodness socialism and madness after this present dishonest version. People need to see socialism and its nastiness and poverty play out over 5-10 years.
Maybe that period will lead to England-Wales splitting itself off, NI joining ROI, Scotland trying to go it alone temporarily and the City of London freeing itself from the yoke of socialism to drive us forward again. But it’s a long time away.
January 1, 2023
SJS, I see it going that way too. I’m not so convinced we’ll get out of the socialist nightmare easily though.
Look at Venezuela (ruinous policies that buy electoral support), or the controversial political and electoral system in the US (where the center right can’t make any headway).
January 1, 2023
Sunak is on track to deliver his WEF vision. Nothing any backbencher can do will derail him and Hunt. They, in their naivety, brought this situation about. They should be ashamed of their actions.
January 1, 2023
Who chose Hunt as Chancellor and why? How many of the global banking and business corporations are WEF members? Why did the head of MI6 compare favourably the Anglo American support for the Stonewall agenda to the Russian Orthodox attitude? Does voting make any difference? .
January 1, 2023
If it did they would ban it!
January 1, 2023
In replacing Truss and Kwasi with Sunak and Hunt they did in effect.
January 1, 2023
Who chose the quartet of international high financiers to advise Hunt? Remember Hunt had advocated 12 % Corporation Tax in his leadership bid a few months earlier. And is he not a son of the Navy?
January 1, 2023
Quite, rose, you are correct. I wonder what his running mate McVey makes of Hunt as Chancellor.
January 1, 2023
Happy New Year Sir John. May your excellent and insightful daily blog reach an ever growing audience and thank you for giving your readers the opportunity to offer their often informative opinions.
January 1, 2023
I suspect many conservative members and voters saw a Liz Truss premiership as a chance to revive conservative values and a chance to move the country forward. It is clear to me from both speed and nature of the way she was disposed of, that the current batch of Conservative MPs in the main have no intention of implementing the 2019 manifesto, implementing the benefits of leaving the EU or respecting the wishes of conservative members. I know Sir John you believe you can change government direction by battling on. I do not agree and would urge you to think again. This country desperately needs a change of direction and neither of the two main parties will offer this. We need a government that puts Britain first
January 1, 2023
Advice that has been given and turned down for the past 12 years.
January 1, 2023
Where were the spending cuts? What a foolish message to hand the income tax cost of a Tesla EV to about half a million upper tax payers. No sticking to guns, doubtful Chancellor….suicidal with the Tory MPs and public.
January 1, 2023
Liz Truss appeared to want to help the public get through some rocky financial times. The money men would never allow that …………………..
January 1, 2023
The WEF and Globalist Establishment decided that the only acceptable winner of the protracted Leadership contest was their puppet, Sunak.
When the Party Membership failed to do as instructed, they deliberately destabilised Truss and carried out what was effectively a coup. Sunak has no mandate and neither do the policies he is implementing.
Personally, I hope it results in the CON Party’s annihilation at the next General Election. Not that Starmer will be any better, but since we are effectively governed by the WEF, they will be virtually identical to anything the CONs “promise.”
January 1, 2023
D,
A sort of EU vote until you get it right if not appoint the one you want.
January 1, 2023
Donna, +++++++++
January 1, 2023
I thought exactly that. A PM who gave in so rapidlyā¦and one who had been most strident re war too!
TBH the whole thing ( to me) had an air of having been plotted out ( like the plague fantasy exercise).
And it achieved every objective. Even crushed our wonderful democracy.
Are there no canny ears to the ground in Wefminster?
January 1, 2023
The markets weren’t spooked by her but she was clearly spooked by the Treasury and the Bank gaslighting her. Her first mistake was to sack her Chancellor. Her second mistake was to alter her proposals. She must have got cut off from the back benchers who knew what to do in that confected turmoil.
January 1, 2023
+1
January 1, 2023
Liz Truss had the right ideas and she and her Chancellor got at least two things right in their Budget: reversing the increases to NICs and to Corporation Tax. Unfortunately they got three things wrong: (1) abolishing the 45% Income Tax rate, which was a gift to her enemies, (2) extending energy support beyond this Winter and, crucially, (3) failing to argue a cogent case for the extra borrowing.
January 1, 2023
[…] The predictable rise and the unexpected fall of Liz Truss – John Redwood […]
January 1, 2023
Although I have no direct evidence, the way Liz Truss suddenly caved in felt to me like a coup d’etat.
What is alarming is that we voted for a right-centre government and ended up with a socialist government.
January 1, 2023
The Establishment was never elected, but like a dead fish pervades everything it touches with the sense that Democracy is irrelevant. It emphasised this with the placing in power of Sunak and Hunt having persuaded the majority of your spineless colleagues to forego democracy and allow governance to be usurped. An honest parliamentry party would have persuaded Liz that she had made a clumsey start and asked her to think again in the way you had advised. However they chose to undemocratically oust her at the behest of the establishment. Et Tu Hunt/Sunak, the real Conservatives who work and vote for you are realigning with Reform. As Reform gathers momentum during the next two years they will at least ensure that your party of consocialist House of Cards never sees power again. Happy New Year.
January 1, 2023
Democracy is irrelevant because the sheeple continually vote for the same clueless shower. People with only degrees in political theory aren’t qualified to do much at all, let alone run a country.
January 1, 2023
Dead right.
`Tis a long, slow road but the Reform is needed.
My allegiance is now with a promising chance of the democracy I voted for.
How did we end up with these children in Whitehall ruining us with their party games?
January 1, 2023
If this scandal is handled correctly, which I doubt it will be, neither Con or Lab would be elected in 2024.
January 1, 2023
@agricola +1, and unfortunately those we elect to manage, be responsible and accountable for there activities are not just reluctant managers, they are refusing to do their jobs. Tail wagging dog come to mind
January 1, 2023
Truss may have had the right ideas of growth, a reduction in taxes, and making the government more economical with its spending, but in truth she did not have a clue how to get there with sensible timing and political thinking. She did not look to have the strength or depth of character as leader to push it through with a workable plan.
She was bullied into submission by the opposition, the media and eventually her own Mp’s, many of whom wanted Sunak all along.
Thus we are now stuck with a person in charge who’s financial polices had virtually busted the UK in the first place.
January 1, 2023
I see the permanent secretary at the Treasury, Sir Tom Scholar, who was sacked by Liz Truss on her first day in office, has now been made a Knight Grand Cross of the Order of the Bath. This would have been on the PM’s recommendation.
The establishment looks after its own as usual.
January 1, 2023
and the people who cornered Johnson get gongs…
January 1, 2023
Is he related to Victoria Scholar who often appears on GB News? (Interactive Investor)
January 1, 2023
Don’t forget the Home Office Civil Servant who has overseen the importation of 45,000 criminal migrants this year got a Knighthood …… presumably for doing precisely what the Government wanted him to do.
January 1, 2023
Wife and I were talking about the absurdity of the World Cup being played in Qatar. This being a parallel situation.
How did the majority of soccer followers, players, managers, club owners in Europe, S America and other large soccer nations agree to their season being interrupted for a month mid-stream? Risks of injuries etc to top players? World cup played in a country with no real soccer history, no existing infrastructure? Must have involved more air miles than holding it where millions of other supporters could reach by car or train?
Given a vote, few supporters or others involved in the game – other than with a pecuniary interest in Qatar – would have voted for the World Cup to be held there. Yet it happened.
January 1, 2023
Cash in bedrooms of EU leaders might help you and your wife reach a conclusion how the decision was reached!
January 1, 2023
Steve Hilton, Cameron’s erstwhile guru, has a good look on Youtube at how the EU were bought:
“The EU is one of the most corrupt institutions: Steve Hilton – YouTube”
Why did Cameron not listen to him more?
January 1, 2023
SJS, I bet pecuniary interests dominate FIFA, as well as other international sporting bodies.
January 1, 2023
Joe,
Football not soccer. Money talks.
January 2, 2023
Qatar is a ‘gas’ rich State and has oodles and oodles of ‘money’.
There’s two reasons as to why they got the gig š
January 1, 2023
Why did she appoint Hunt as her second Chancellor? Who decided for her that he was the best candidate for that role? The whole episode and the subsequent appointment of Sunak as PM, the man responsible for creating much of the economic mess we are in, stinks. We are governed, it seems, by people whose allegiance is to globalists and not to the people of this country. Most of the members of the House of Commons are unworthy of their positions. Our democracy, if it ever truly existed, has been hijacked.
January 1, 2023
exactly.
January 1, 2023
Brian Tomkinson
Your take on who governs us and the suitability of the vast majority of our so called politicians is bang on the money.
January 1, 2023
+1 why did she just sit there while Hunt embarrassed her by changing everything she stood for to be elected! Someone scared her? From Treasury and BOE?
January 1, 2023
Precisely! I couldn’t have put it better.
January 1, 2023
Liz Truss and to a lesser extent Kwasi Kwarteng were let down by left of centre Conservative MPs who didn’t like her and turned on thier democratically elected leader at the first sign of trouble.
Governments have ridden the markets before when their party was behind them.
What Liz Truss tried to do was radical and correct (if poorly narrated).
“Shame! Shame! Shame!” (to the clanging bells as the Conservative Parliamentary Party parades naked through the streets with excrement being hurled at it).
January 1, 2023
To me, as a foreigner, budgetting without impact analysis (OBR) seems irresponible (it is in the name). And so it proved:
– The markets didn’t trust this budget.
– The BOE had to rescue some pension funds.
A costly experiment, that is how the outside world sees this.
January 1, 2023
As a foreigner, does it also come across that the OBR is awful when it comes to economic forecasting?
January 1, 2023
See reply at formula57 below
January 2, 2023
We have proven in reality that lower tax rates produce more tax.
As a foreigner you donāt believe that and I donāt care. You have no say in our country and are free to accept the fabulously horrific budgets the EU etc produce – all impact analysed.
We will see the Euro expire, probably this year.
I see Russia is repairing its pipelines, Nordstream 1 and 2, at a huge price (which happily they can afford), after they were destroyed in a terrorist act.
Perhaps an impact analysis should have been done on the sanctions placed on Russia for taking action to stop a war and a genocide?
January 1, 2023
@Peter
Sadly, the OBR does not have a good track record…. but I believe Mr Kwarteng should have found a credible alternative so as to satisfy the markets and the “outside world”.
The B of E does not seem to have been entirely blameless in all of this and …pension funds presumably have highly paid financial people to help manage their financial risk. Hopefully a few lessons have been learned.
January 1, 2023
See reply at formula57 below
January 1, 2023
@ Peter van LEEUWEN – just as with Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, the OBR name has little to do with what it is all about. The OBR produces badly flawed, materially wrong forecasts and its record is very poor. The maladroit Kwarteng ought to have abolished it.
What was happening in the markets needs to be distinguished to be understood. On the one hand was froth about Kwarteng’s incomplete budget (so certainly a costly experiment) that assuredly would have blown over in time had resolve been shown and on the other was the antics of the Bank of England that unexpectedly, suddenly and to great degree (comparatively) unnecessarily drove interest rates up catching out some pension funds that had been imprudently playing the market though opening exposures that then saw margin calls made upon them, requiring them to obtain funds though sales of gilts, thereby pushing yields up even more. When the Bank of England, slow and late, dealt with the turbulence in the bond market, the problems abated. That they occurred contemporaneously with the budget froth reaction was coincidental.
January 1, 2023
I assume that the OBR is similar to a Dutch institution, which we have had since 1945 and has some of its website also available in English,
the CPB (Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)
Budgets and large financial measures are always put through the CPB for analysis. Political parties put their manifestos through the CPB in order to be taken seriously by the media and subsequently by the voters.
January 1, 2023
Is your CPB run by anti-conservative thinkers too?
January 1, 2023
Analysis is objectively calculating, like the effects for buying power, the effects of anergy policies for various categories of people, etc. etc. Both rightwing and leftwing parties send their plans and programmes for scrutiny to the CPB. But it also produces other studies like the interwoveness of Dutch and Chinese economies, or the declining level of quality in education.
January 2, 2023
PvL that is interesting thank you. Now youāve made me wonder if our OBR is sent the opposition and SNPs plans and programmes for scrutiny. Did they recommend all the closing down of farms in the Netherlands?
Iāve been looking for a prediction report from our OBR on what their calculations are when the 25% corporation tax starts this April (they are often surprised they are wrong). https://obr.uk/box/corporation-tax-in-historical-and-international-context/ The last time they put the tax up the tax collected dropped in their own chart yet they are expecting it to rise significantly!
They wrote this [Since our October 2021 EFO the real economy has performed largely as expected in 21-22 but tax receipts have come in well above that forecast. In this box, we examined reasons why tax receipts have recovered so quickly particularly in comparison to economic data.]
In Dec 2018 they said this [In recent years, onshore corporation tax receipts have repeatedly surprised on the upside. This box described the drivers behind that strength, in particular the contribution from a rising effective tax rate despite cuts to the headline rates.]
January 2, 2023
Never assume!
Have you Dutch done an impact analysis of driving 3,000 farmers off the land?
January 1, 2023
@Peter van LEEUWEN – You are assuming things not in evidence. The OBR is a new creation because the Treasury was said to be failing. But the OBR has a record since inception of never being right on anything.
January 1, 2023
See reaction to formula57 above
January 1, 2023
Peter, Happy New Year.
We have discussed the OBR before. What is the point of being thrown off course by wrong forecasts? OBR forecasts are always wrong, because they are left wing and ideological. They would probably have leaked the statement too. Until the coup d’etat we are covering here, leaking even one sentence of a budget was a resigning matter. Now it is all over the MSM for weeks beforehand, as if there were no such thing as insider dealing. We were also told the OBR threatened Miss Truss that if she did not increase mass immigration, they would not sign off Mr Hunt’s statement. All that was necessary in the case of the Kwarteng statement was for the Treasury to provide the paperwork, but they had other plans. As had the Bank. We shall be very much poorer accordingly.
Anyway, one must consult many, many forecasts, as forecasting, even when done conscientiously, is not an exact science. And economics is not, either. Predicting individual human behaviour and adding it all up to forecast economic activity, is difficult.
The behaviour which spooked the markets was that of the Bank of England Governor, putting up interest rates the day before the Statement by too little and too late. He also dumped bonds on the market no-one wanted and then pretended to ride to the rescue of the Pension Funds he had failed to regulate. He did this by buying back the bonds, high, at a cost to the taxpayer of Ā£11 billion. He then told the world he would stop doing this by Friday 14th October, the day Miss Truss was forced to resign. Then he announced he would not be rocking the boat for Mr Hunt’s statement. And he didn’t.
January 1, 2023
@rose: whatever the explanations afterwoards, the damage to UK reputation was pretty severe and the oputside world (e.g. investors) doesn’t delve into too much detail to make up its impression. E.g. a country with such severe inequalities, scrapping the 45% tax for the super rich, that wasn’t understood anywhere.
January 2, 2023
Pvl I often wonder about this [severe inequalitites] when the vast majority of a Country is poor is that better? Is that why so many thousands are trying to flood here to the UK? When we take in millions from Europe and elsewhere who arrive with nothing then equality will never be achieved. It would interesting to see equality figures discounting all the people and families that havenāt been in the UK for fifty years. I say fifty years because that is how long it took my family to grow from the factory floor low skilled work rates to graduate work, why should incomers just be gifted homes, free healthcare and free money from benefits.
A lot of our poverty is because people refuse to work as is the norm for British women. A look at the severest poverty is among families where the mother doesnāt work and has over three children at the expense of universal credit (the father often doesn’t work in PAYE traceable work) and they are gifted free social housing and also high poverty in communities where the male/father figure just leaves and doesnāt pay up.
January 2, 2023
Yes, Peter, you are right, the damage to the UK is immense and people rarely find out what went on. The top rate of tax was only to go back to what it had been for 13 years under Blair and Brown when the world wasn’t shocked by it.
There is nothing the remainiacs will not stoop to, no damage to their country they will not countenance, in their quest to rejoin the EU. As I said to you earlier, we will all be poorer now; not only that, but our great and historic institutions have been shorn of their integrity and credibility. All grist to the remainiac mill. All reasons for rejoining. The EU is not only corrupt, but corrupting.
January 2, 2023
Peter
The OBR is a new construct only coming into being in 2010. Since then it has failed repeatedly to deliver on its mandate, to provide independent and accurate forecasting a budgetary advice.
If someone was to repeatedly offer you bad advice, after a short time you would be a fool to listen to them.
BTW How is that land grab your government is about to do ? Apparently it is being done to build a large mega-city on. I’d give you links but our kind host does not like them.
January 1, 2023
“She and her chosen Chancellor made no secret of their disagreement with Treasury and Bank officials. They just replaced the one, the Permanent Secretary to the Treasury…”
Scholar has been given a āKnights Grand Cross of the Order of the Bath,ā an award given to members of the U.K. military or civil service for exemplary service.
Really ?
January 1, 2023
@ oldwulf – yes, for Sir Scholar was made an example of.
(Note he had been knighted previously. The recent award was just a more senior version, supposedly endowed with more prestige to those who care.)
January 1, 2023
Liz Truss had some of the right ideas, but it really needed someone with higher IQ to deliver policies with conviction. Every time she came on and was presented with a challenging question she looked like a rabbit caught in the headlights. Only after a couple of times did she come back with answers. For someone involved in politics for so long, I’m surprised she didn’t have a better grip on what she believed.
January 1, 2023
Liz Truss is a careerist climber with no original thoughts or ideas of her own. Look at her political history. She won the leadership campaign by telling Conservative members the fairy tales they wanted to hear, while Sunak told them the home truths they didn’t want to listen to. Her policy positions have consistently been those of whoever could promote her or advance her self interest irrespective of who was PM with no original thoughts or ideas of her own. Once she ran out of people to think for her (apart from the inhabitants of 55 Tufton St), she was exposed for what she is.
January 1, 2023
How do Sunak’s so-called home truths help us? Are we expected to grow more or less now according to these truths? 57% to 43% amongst tens of thousands of party members disagree with you but a couple of hundred Tory MPs who have, let’s say, skin in a different game, are with you.
January 2, 2023
Basically she did what every Tory PM or wannabe PM has done since 1992. Ted Heath told the nation that joining the EEC would mean no loss of sovereignty. A lie !
And here is a truth that Rushi failed to mention – the Ā£16bn in fraud, all lost to what was described, as schoolboy errors. And I could go on.
January 1, 2023
I thought that the Truss plan was our one chance to avoid a recession but it would have been better to have waited a week or two and tried to bring the OBR on side by providing more detail about forward spending.
The problem was that Sunak and his cronies had been rubbishing her ideas throughout the campaign, and there is no doubt that the banking establishment was thoroughly supportive of his position. With perfect timing, Bailey immediately moved to make things difficult for her in the bond markets, and from that point on, she was doomed to fail. The result has been a deep but entirely unnecessary recession. There was already enough money being taken out of the economy by the rise in energy prices without raising interest rates so high.
This was a clear example of the Treasury and Bank of England conspiring with markets to get rid of a Prime Minister they did not want, knowing that they could ensure Sunak was her replacement. Not exactly a coup, but as close to one as we are ever likely to see in Britain.
January 1, 2023
You say the Treasury and Bank of England conspired with markets to get rid of a Prime Minister they did not want – that surely is a coup, Chris. The army didn’t need, in time-honoured fashion, to take over the TV stations, because the media were onside anyway. Truss, Hunt & co. didn’t need to be placed under house arrest, because half of them were in on it already. It was a very British coup – our leaders may not be good at very much but they are good at perception management.
January 1, 2023
I was being polite, Clough.
I don’t doubt that there was considerable discussion between parties in the Treasury, Bank of England and elements of the Sunak camp. The aim was clearly to get Liz Truss out of Downing Street. The actions of Bailey were crucial, being very specific, and exquisitely timed to do her maximum damage.
Whether the evidence will ever come to light, we will have to wait and see, but it is interesting that no financial journalists has even speculated about a conspiracy.
January 1, 2023
The Economist and the Financial Times were both at Bilderberg in June. If they had speculated about a conspiracy, Chris S, I doubt they’d be allowed to go again.
January 1, 2023
“She and her chosen Chancellor…” A telling phrase. Had she chosen a different Chancellor, someone with many years’ worth of economic and financial experience who was set on a similar path of growth and supply side reforms (e.g. removing all restrictions on fracking – and meaning it), she may have found that there was after all greater scope to stand up to malevolent forces and no need to run off in a panic when they struck. Would anyone we know have fitted that description?
January 1, 2023
Exactly, DC.
January 1, 2023
Hello Sir John,
The comments speak for themselves. I hope that in the Christmas recess, conservative MPs have been told very strongly how far off-track this government is & return determined to rebel & insist on conservative policies on Tax & Spending. How can they still support net zero when it is doing so much damage & there are plenty of books now published proving it is nonsense. Do not conservative MPs read books or think for themselves?
All the best for the New Year, Sir John, you are a voice crying in the wilderness, but we appreciate what you are trying to do.
January 1, 2023
There is something that has not come out in the open and I doubt it will for a long time to come.
Truss has a record of standing her ground and over coming problems but on this occasion she folded like a pack of cards almost over night. There must have been a dire threat from somewhere. Whatever it was, it must have been significant because were are now suffering a useless PM who is running true to form of ”all mouth and no do” plus a chancellor who is the least qualified (with 3 business failures prior to entering politics to his credit) and taxing this country out of existence.
There has to be external pressure causing this country to be so badly run from the top and the quicker it is exposed, the better. Until it is, we will continue to slide down the world ranking and end up in the ‘third world’, God forbid.
January 1, 2023
It is indeed too idiotic to be cock-up.
January 1, 2023
This country is a satrapy of the United States. The Tory party is owned by people who hate the English and want to turn us into a third world country through importation and economic destruction.
January 2, 2023
So it would seem.
Interesting – I cannot see it as other than a coup.
If Truss & K had to go then surely a lot more need to be shown the door. It seems the UK has been infiltrated and divided cannot stand. Alas this passes for democracy. Maybe we get a chance at the next election. I highly doubt it. Seems like we continue to be ruled by globalist or other baser interests perhaps the EU/US regimes are all in cahoots. Germany down , Russia Out, UK merged into the EU. ( lets not forget Eire and the US angle)
January 1, 2023
It’s not impossible to believe that the establishment got rid of Truss because she didn’t do their bidding and follow the line on bankrupting the country.
I see the issue of inadequate spending and borrowing plans as a red herring, an excuse, rather than the real reason she had to go which was because of her tax cutting policies.
That she failed to stand up to the international and local pressure was a real sin, as was the decision to play puppet to the Americans who wanted the Russian pipeline destroyed, and she obliged.
With Truss we had some hope that the country just might turn a corner, now very few people have any faith in the current regime which is destined to ruin us – If only Truss had been able to stand up to the bullying we may have had a chance to escape the dire consequences of decades of puppet failed governments.
January 1, 2023
I never had confidence in the appointment of Kwarteng as Chancellor after his disastrous tenure at BEIS which saw more and more industry close down and move abroad, and disastrous energy policy that has made our current crisis so much worse than it need have been.
It has also been clear that Andrew Bailey has a career history of failure at the FCA, as well as the utter disaster of excessive QE during covid. A change in BoE policy needed a new broom. Truss should have looked to Haldane who has a track record of being quick to understand what is happening and how to tackle it. The fact that he was sidelined by ultra Green Carney is another recommendation.
It seems highly likely that Hunt was part of an establishment coup that clearly involved the BoE manipulating gilts and currency markets etc dd
January 1, 2023
Sir John
Wishing you and your contributors to this Diary a Happy 2023
The only thing Liz Truss did wrong was not to reduce the size of the State and demand accountability at the same time as the other announcements. i.e. – spending reductions.
All that has happened is we now have an expensive delay on tackling the non-performing side of the Establishment.
Liz also from the outside looking in, was destroyed by the very people causing all today’s problems aggressively briefing against Her. Fundamentally everything said was and has turned out to be untrue.
We still have to climb out of this hole caused by the lack of proper management at the top.
January 1, 2023
The thing we should all fear, is that the Establishment, the Media have flexed their muscles and are dictating to our elected representatives a new world order āleft wing agendaā.
Unless those elected start to manage the Country on our behalf we can kiss good bye to Democracy. The UK Parliament has become like the EU Parliament, members can debate all they like, but they will do with out question what the unelected unaccountable commands.
January 1, 2023
The choice of Truss was wrong . Her comunication efforts failed and her leadership was weak . Sunak has also made the wrong choice in his Chancellor and bending to the OBR and the BofE . The Conservative Party has a major problem now in winning over public support and it is unlikely to recover enough before the next election . I have only voted Conservative in the whole of my long life and I tremble at the thoughts of a Labour win . Is it the right time now to return to a coalition war time style Government ?.
January 1, 2023
The most likely outcome of the next general election is a small conservative majority, or a Labour/LibDim/SNP coalition with an equally small majority.
There can be little doubt that the latter would a worse outcome, but whatever the result of the election, conventional economic theory will be maintained, hence, low growth, even higher public spending, no NHS reform, and less free enterprise will be the order of the day.
Oh, and continued impoverishment because of accelerated progress towards the lunacy that is Net Zero.
January 1, 2023
In what way do you think Labour could be any worse ? Their growth policies actually look slightly better.
January 2, 2023
Firstly, all the parties in the likely coalition want to go further and faster towards Net zero than even the Conservatives. That is going to bankrupt the country because the undue haste is unaffordable. The UK is already doing more than most countries, so it really is unnecessary for us to reach Net Zero before 2060.
Secondly, whatever Starmer says now, he will come under irresistible pressure from the extremists on his left, of which there are many, to spend more on extending the state sector and increasing pay. Ditto from the Lib Dims and particularly the SNP. The economy will suffer as a result.
Thirdly, Starmer will inevitably have to concede another Independence referendum within the next Parliament, which the SNP will win and the separation will cause turmoil and will take a decade to sort out. In the long term that, of course, will be good for the Conservative party and English taxpayers but we can be sure that Starmer will make a bad deal with Scotland.
Fourth, and most important, Starmer will use the deal with Scotland to achieve one of his real objectives : getting us back into the EU. As a first step, he will try to take England back into the single market using the excuse that to do so is necessary to avoid any border issues over Scotland. That would be the SNP tail wagging the English dog.
January 2, 2023
Roy, I think it would be a disaster as Blair was.
They will reward their union paymasters with bumper salaries way over inflation like they did last time and give yet more time off.
People arenāt feeling as well off because they are now paying 8% into nest pensions that arenāt going to give them a guaranteed return like our unionised workforce that we pay better terms to than we grant ourselves with NEST.
The WTD cut peopleās overtime, where Dad could work an extra 10-15 hours a week so Mum could afford just to do 10-15 hours per week work outside the home they both must work now. That is the result of our overtime cut it was to make way for millions of extra workers into the UK to share it out (levelling down).
Labour leftie teachers have set up children with high expectations of what they can achieve oh and work life balance is to only work four days and less than 7 hours per day but expect the same pay (where is that going to lead – more levelling down)
The NWM/NLW up 10% this April, all pay differentials will have to match or why bother training and improving!
January 1, 2023
I understand Kwarteng precipitated a crisis in the markets by not allowing the OBR to provide an impact assessment of his budget. The OBR is led by two former Treasury officials with previous careers at the International Monetary Fund, and a former BoE Monetary Policy Committee member. If you put these sort of people’s noses out of joint, you’d be well advised to watch your back. They are very well-connected internationally with links to powerful global players and institutions who can pull all the levers necessary to wreck your plans. Truss and Kwarteng seem to me to have been well-intentioned, but rather naive about where the power lies in this country.
January 1, 2023
The knives were upfront, not the back.
January 1, 2023
The Conservatives, or at least most of their MPs, have moved so far to the left that there’s no difference between them and Labour. So, come the next election I don’t see how they’ll get the support from the party members which they will need to fight their campaign, especially as the members weren’t properly consulted about installing Sunak.
January 1, 2023
A Happy New Year to you Sir John,
To answer your question how did this happen, the Government is not running the UK but other unelected bodies which have no interest in the cost to the ordinary voter by their actions.
Follow the money- who made a profit from the overthrow of a UK PM ?
Will the Current PM be impacted personally(financially)in any way? Perhaps we should see his TAX accounts just like Trumps?
Sorry Sir John you are just wasting your time trying to change the Establishment which appears happy to see the country go into a step decline in 2023.
January 1, 2023
I was surprised and sorely disappointed at the fall of Truss. I really thought that not only was she correct in her policies but that she had the courage to see them through and prove them right.
She should not have sacked Kwarteng. Does a Chancellor have to explain his reasons for doing what he does in a MINI budget?
It was ‘the markets’ that engineered that problem.
Then Truss back tracked on just about every one of her correct policies.
Why? Were there some hidden threats made against her?
As for her Ā£80billion spending package, well, not all of it was wrong. It was crucial to give immediate help to the poorest, in order to afford the rise in price of heating their home.
By ‘the poorest’ I mean those with no other income but the State Pension. Unfortunately many less needy people also received it. Does anyone get everything right first time?
Surely with such a large majority in the House of Commons, the so-called Conservative Party should be able to do a bit better than it has.
January 1, 2023
Liz had to deal with the death and funeral of our Queen Elizabeth and a suspension of political activity when she might otherwise have been preparing the groundwork for a change of direction. Then she tried to catch up by rushing her fences. With an ambitious Rishi Sunak and his supporters waiting in the wings, having already seen off Boris, poor Liz did not stand a chance to recover.
January 1, 2023
She has been profoundly quiet since though. It’s all a bit fishy.
January 1, 2023
Two coups d’etat in swift succession, with the death of the Queen in between, would have sent anyone into silence. Three profoundly shocking events.
January 1, 2023
Fishy is the right word, Sir Joe.
Perhaps one day she’ll be allowed to publish her memoirs, and all will be revealed.
But not yet. She had a 26,000 majority in 2019, and may be one of the few Tory MPs to keep their seat in the next election.
January 1, 2023
show me an MP and I’ll show you ambition!
January 1, 2023
I thought that was quite extraordinary. Liz Truss was only PM for approx 45 days yet the very sad death of HM the Queen happened on her watch.
That tragedy distracted her completely from her plans, and then her term of office was very soon over. Her Majesty seemed to be in quite good health when Miss Truss visited her in Balmoral barely 48 hours previously.
January 1, 2023
With a history of changing her mind on political issues, it should have been of no surprise that at the first sign of opposition to her policies, Liz Truss would cave in.
The lady definitely was for turning, that was her nature. I was fooled.
The public trusts politicians who do what they say will do, and therefore radiate personal integrity.
January 1, 2023
We always thought this was a risk with her though. Comments on here at the time were basically – well-intentioned, no gravitas, not massively intelligent or well-proven, but worth the risk.
But to last only a few days?? Something worse than being ignominiously deposed as the shortest-ever term PM must have been threatened from somewhere or somebody.
The question is from whom, and why has she been so quiet about the whole process since? Why weren’t members votes properly respected? Shouldn’t there be an enquiry held by the Tory Party?
Without one the party should just die at the next election.
January 1, 2023
I imagine a few are consulting and rapidly updating memories for reference in their forthcoming book. (Sir John?).
Title: Conservatives – death from a thousand cuts 2010-2022?
January 1, 2023
SJS :
I can remember a press conference where her body language, facial expressions, eyes and speech looked like she was a hostage reading from a prepared script written by her abductors.
January 1, 2023
The Pension Regulator was well aware of the danger LDIs posed to pension funds.āThey said afterwards that all they could do was warn as they didn’t have the powers to do more.āOne of their warnings is this blog post from August: https://blog.thepensionsregulator.gov.uk/2022/08/16/why-it-is-important-to-keep-asking-questions-about-investment-strategies/
The Bank of England was thus well aware of the fragility of pension funds yet still decided to announce their plans which would move the market and cause the funds problems on the day before Kwarteng’s ‘budget’.āThey could expect this in turn to make trouble for the new Government and for that to increase as deleveraging caused more collateral demands.
What made Truss/Kwarteng give such a generous energy bail-out?āWhere did that influence come from?āWithout it, they may have survived as it dwarfed the tax cuts, all but a couple of billion of which were already priced in by the markets.āIt was by far the most generous in Europe, twice as good as the next best, Croatia, and well ahead of peers like France and Germany.āIt’s very un-Truss like.
Whether factions of the Tory party colluded with the BoE or they just had the same desires, the installation of an orthodox P.M., they got their man.āAnd one fiat currency brought its end nearer.
However good Rishi is at using his ‘quiet time’ over Christmas to spot the problems in the few key issues he and Forsyth have decided to focus on, there’s no reason to think he can affect the changes he wants through the layers of those on the taxpayers’ pound.
January 1, 2023
The outing of Liz Truss from No.10 bore all the hallmarks of a coup which, I believe, must have been accompanied by significent threats. Strangely the two who replaced her and Kwasi Kwarteng were roundly rejected by party members when their names went up for ballot! But then, those behind the coup were never going to allow party members another say.
Now those two squatters in Downing Street, to all intents and purposes, serve, not this country or UK electorate, but UN, WHO, WEF and EU. Democracy in this once great country has been utterly destroyed, along with my trust and that of many others.
January 2, 2023
Lord Mandelson once said; “We are living in a post democracy.”
Seems he knew what he was talking about.
January 1, 2023
To me it only serves to underline the thought that the impact big business and the monied have exerts more influence than any utilitarian ideal.
January 1, 2023
On this day 1st January 1973 at one second past midnight the UK along with Ireland and Denmark joined the EEC and since then the economies of both Ireland and Denmark have flourished whilst that of UK has stalled – the question is could this upset for us have been prevented by better leadership and planning over the years or was it all because of woolly thinking and practixe and plain bad luck? So then question is what do we need to do to rescue ourselves?
Lastly: Why is Julian Assange still in a UK prison? – being held here for the Americans and with no end in sight? I don’t think he has ever even been to America but according to the US State Dept has broken some US security law by publishing documents that throw light on the criminality of past US government military performance – suffice to say I thought we had taken back control of our own affairs by now but if UK government and Home Office cannot see the injustice in all of this then have to say it doesn’t bode well for the future – for any of us.
January 2, 2023
Jamie, it wasnāt so long ago that Ireland had to be bailed out 13 Dec 2013 ā Three years after being saved from bankruptcy by a trio of international lenders with a ā¬67.5bn loan, Ireland has become the first stricken eurozone state to exit its rescue programme. Noonan said it was like the potato famine.
Now how much of that success is built on its corporation tax rate of 12.5% and all the US movements into the EU via that loophole. The Minister for Finance has said he expects Ireland’s corporation tax rate will be increased to 15% in 2024 for large companies that are subject to last year’s global tax deal.14 Dec 2022
Go Rishi!
January 1, 2023
Iām a member who voted for Liz Truss. It is strange the speed with which Liz Truss was toppled. Certainly her judgement and choice of Jeremy Hunt was faulty as he took no notice of her, and behaved quite treacherously in his speeches and changes on being appointed. Once he was doing this, she was soon out. I found it interesting that earlier IDS and David Frost refused the cabinet appointments offered as having not enough influence. I think her choice for Cabinet did not surround her with strength or experience – and unflappability in crisis. A good link person/s to get on- going current backbencher views might have helped. It was early days in her premiership. I remember your advice to her as a new pm – how much ( if any)did she take on board? There was also rebellious back bench comment at the Con conference. There is still back bench Con rebellion but it does not appear to be affecting Rishi Sunak to the same degree. The Spectator involvement in supporting Sunak is also interesting. Would we be feeling slightly queasy if Liz Truss still in power this New Year, or could she have tweaked her policies successfully? It has I think put right wing Conservative views on the back pedal. However after this, no- one would ever underestimate now the ruthlessness of the Establishment/Treasury in manipulating events.
January 1, 2023
Dear Sir John ,
Happy New Year and thank you again for all the hard work and time you put in to maintain this unique daily dialogue between a heavyweight politician and voters.
In her election hustings, Liz Truss promised tax cuts for growth but, as you advised, no general energy cost support package beyond a temporary cut in tax on electricity and gas. Once another huge one-off subsidy package was deemed necessary, there was fairly obviously no room for immediate tax cuts, beyond reversing the National Insurance hike. Sadly, Ms Truss lacked the flexibility to accept this.
Cutting taxes is an inclination with a purpose. It is not a plan. The Truss government could have offered voters, a coherent and credible medium-term plan, for example to stabilise all the main standard tax rates at 20 per cent (or 10 plus ten in the case of NICs) as a framework for planned public spending that Labour might have felt it wise to adopt, somewhat as in 1997.
January 1, 2023
Liz Truss was useless (she shouldn’t even have been a cabinet minister – same for loads of them).
The problem isn’t Sunak etc but the decline and fall of Western Culture / Civilisation where people don’t believe nearly so much any more in work ethic, taking responsibility for oneself (instead of relying on state), relying on family (instead of state), family values, the values of being a masculine man and a feminine woman, patriotism and more.
And the only way to ultimately reform this is through Eduction / The Arts / the churches etc, putting forwards, more, Conservative-minded values. Politics has a role to play, but it’s a modern heresy to think that politics is responsible overall for shaping our country overall including its economy.
An economy is based overall on worth ethic, people relying on themselves instead of state, being manly, patriotic etc .. And so something the Conservative Party has to look at more instead of just relying on politics and economy policy (important as these are but not to exaggerate importance of at the cost of other important aspects of Conservatism).
January 1, 2023
And if we focused on this, then we COULD even get tax down to 20% or lower. But this is the only way. If one over-focuses on economic policy, one will just do something that annoys loads of people and then they will just reverse what one’s done and the country has to suffer years of a Labour government or something.
January 1, 2023
The Tory party members voted for Liz, so why didnāt the Tory MPs rally around her when the BoE initiated a coup ā¦weak, woke & wobbly
January 1, 2023
The first underlying problem with Liz Truss was like most people (including most Oxbridge graduates like Sunak and May) is that she was never suited to be Prime Minister. In the first place through a personal failing she just appointed her closest friends as Ministers, alienating most Conservative M.P.s who saw they had no career prospects with her. She also had an alarming record of sudden complete changes of political direction. Furthermore she seems to have been almost on her own in seemingly genuinely believing one can just add to public borrowing at will with no public plan to reduce the overdraft. Conservative M.P.s never seem to learn they cannot sensibly choose just about anybody to be Prime Minister or be competitive at elections-few can do the first and very few the second.
That said, I and almost everybody else don’t think most of the estimated eighty billion pounds fuel subsidy spending package could or should have been avoided though I am sympathetic to John Redwood’s one time suggestion that only the first so many units of gas and electricity per household should be subsidised to encourage less use and reduce subsidy costs. I would have used the necessary temporary subsidy as a pretext for substantially pruning public spending permanently. Furthermore I think in an emergency mortgage costs could be contained by temporary legislation to make home repossessions impossible if mortgage interest rates exceed a certain figure, say 5%.
For both economic and electoral reasons,the Conservatives desperately need to revisit the tax-cutting, growth strategy while reducing the size of the public sector under a new, electorally viable Leader.
January 1, 2023
Just who is running the country !
January 1, 2023
That’s what I’d like to know
January 1, 2023
Imo it was because she did not say she would cut the Big State Blob as well as cutting taxes. That enabled the OBR and the money markets etc to call her plans āunfundedā. They challenged her and she folded instantly, because she neither understood nor believed in what she was doing.
January 1, 2023
The problem weāve got is that we have stem challenged humanities graduates as Ministers at scientific, technical and engineering departments, such as BEIS/Energy, who are being unwillingly, perhaps even willingly, hoodwinked by stem challenged humanities civil service graduates in the department who have sufficient experience/knowledge to be capable of arguing for their favoured policy but either do not possess sufficient knowledge of the subject to avoid leading us to an inevitable disaster or are quite happy for a disaster to occur.
January 1, 2023
About right. Most with stem degrees avoid the whole shebang like the plague and aren’t welcomed, in my experience, anyway.
January 1, 2023
āThe Establishment said the UK had to return to austerity and had to put up taxes to make it considerably less competitive. What is amazing is the PM agreed to all this. As her departing Chancellor warned her, that would mean her end as PM. So it proved. We need to ask why and how this happened. It also has meant, as some of us warned, higher prospective borrowing as the recession it brings will depress revenues.ā
When Ms Truss took over it was surely apparent to anyone with the least understanding of the economic problems we faced that some hard choices would be necessary ā simply cutting taxes and throwing money at the economy was not a serious option. So why were sober voices warning of these facts ignored? The cavalier way reality was denied points to a major problem with the way UK politics has evolved. Put simply, the wrong people are emerging as our leaders at all levels. We are a technological society in a desperately competitive technological world where the winner will take all: there will be no prizes for coming second.
It is puzzling to watch those who have emerged as the leaders of successive generations of politicians ā so many are obviously out of their depth in terms of their education and even in their understanding of the political game. Itās easy to blame the Blair phenomenon, the slick, over-packaged image, the emphasis on PR over substance, but even on those terms those who āemergeā are pale shadows of those who rose to rule us in the past. My theory, for what itās worth, is that the career trajectories of those deemed suitable to be the next PM but one are being over-managed. They are chosen too early on criteria that are faulty ā a āgoodā degree in a āgoodā subject from a āgoodā university, a winning way at the hustings and the ability to flatter to advance are no longer enough. A succession of appointments ā bag carrier, hopeless by election, safe seat leading to junior minister job, minister etc ā teach nothing if there are no penalties for cock-ups, and that is the current situation: managed careers with no failure permitted. If being ignorant of their brief does not damage their prospects then these golden lads and lasses will continue to fail us, will leave our economy and our society in the dust while they flutter off to new jobs, new appointments, new cock ups, with a seat in the Lords and a comfortable career on various quangos and committees as the ultimate goal.
That is why we are ruining good agricultural land with solar farms, why we have opted for a fleet of reactors from France which are proving impossible to build on time and down to a price, why our electricity Grid is creaking on the edge of disaster whenever the winds donāt blow when we sit on cheap energy supplies which could give us a huge competitive advantage over the Chinese, the Germans and the US. And why HS2. Insouciance is not a good look when you have seventy million mouths to feed, but it seems to be the fashionable look in political circles.
The solution? Sack those who demonstrate incompetence, sack them early, do not let them attain high office where they do real damage. I will not be holding my breath.
January 2, 2023
To summarise: UK politicians have morphed into bullshiting friends of friends – the right schools, the right circles, the right holidays – move in the groups which help to place them in sincures, a favour to be called in one day.
Qualifications? Technical knowledge, political development and experience at the people’s ground level not required. Guess the way forward, encourage out of touch mates to press on, don’t stop to consider what reaction follows decisions. Exude confidence that things are under control. Crisis?- what crisis?
It breeds Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak – who’s next? Starmer.
January 1, 2023
Well we’ll never know if Truss would have been a success but we do know the two clowns we have in No 10 and 11 aren’t any good.
January 1, 2023
+1
January 1, 2023
How it happened? It happened because Conservative MPs are utterly useless at choosing the best leader. Their final two to put to the membership were Sunak and Truss – both turned out to be utterly useless – when the membership wanted Kemi. The lesson the MPs draw from this is to blame the members and say they should be entirely excluded from selecting the next leader (of the opposition).
January 1, 2023
What is it you or anybody else sees in Kemi Badenoch that would indicate she would be a good Prime Minister or an election asset? I can’t see anything at all when I look and on economics she just seems to be bending with whatever wind is blowing at the time.
January 2, 2023
Yes I’ve commented on this before and it seems your views are similar.
It is strange that the BoE governor behaved as he did, until we remember that he was appointed by Sunak. I can see only two possibilities – either he is incompetent or he acted deliberately. The effect of his stange interventions was to destabilise markets just as the Budget was about to be announced, when other politicians were fully ready to seize upon the excuse that the Budget caused the market problems.
If, like me, you don’t believe in coincidences, this tells a clear story. However, the question is why they did this. The only reason I can see which adds up is a pro-EU one. If we are out-performing the EU then the case for rejoin evaporates. And Hunt is certainly a pro-EU animal, so if it walks like a duck… etc.
Is the HoC really so heavily populated with MPs who would destroy their own country over pro-EU sentiment? Are they really still hoping to be appointed to the EU Commission or is it pure ideology? Difficult questions to answer without knowing someone else’s mind.
January 2, 2023
Sir John, I would be interested – as I know you remain sceptical of the TCA with the EU, as do I – what about simply giving the EU the agreed period of notice to ditch the TCA. We can use the intervening time to make realistically open CANZUK-orientated trade agreements (i.e. widen the scope of the ridiculously protectionist recent agreement with Australia), give home-grown agri a boost by insisting on automation (with incentives to do so). The NI agreement can then be freely thrown out, as it was illegally passed by Parliament, breaching both the Act of Union and the GFA, and the EU has shown bad faith in its interpretation of the border issue, treating the concession we allowed it as a territorial right it does not have. It can sue us in the International Court if it pleases – we can legislatively de-recognize the ECJ.
Of course, we will need a New Party to do this: your innately remainer, pro-EU, left-of-centre ‘one-nation’ Tory colleagues would have a fit at these very ideas. But the Tory Party is obviously electorally doomed.
January 2, 2023
JR: “We were living through an inflationary surge created by Bank and Treasury mistakes over interest rates and money printing … ”
We are being forced to raise interest rates because the US FED is raising interest rates. It’s interesting to note that the yield on government debt is almost where it was when the Liz Truss administration was forced from office in the WEF coup d’etat.
But oddly, there is no clamoring for a change of governing administration. Frankly, the administration should resign and call a general election.
We now have a Chancellor, who made his fortune by providing the tax funded British council for ‘training’ courses, and the Prime Minister is solely responsible for our current bout of inflation.
2023 is certainly looking like it will be, … interesting.