Readers of this site will know I was critical of the Bank of England, Federal Reserve Board in the USA and the EUâs ECB for continuing money printing in 2021 well into recovery. Coupled with interest rates  at zero it was bound to be very inflationary. So it proved. China and Japan did not do this and kept inflation down to around 2% despite importing a lot of dear energy.
They will also know that last year whilst agreeing with rises in rates I warned against Quantitative tightening, selling government bonds at ever larger losses to tighten money yet more. It was this policy announced by the Bank of England just before the Kwarteng  mini  budget that drove bonds down. The Bank of England had to reverse its policy the following week and buy up some bonds to restore stability. They showed they controlled the prices of the bonds, letting them fall too far then rallying them sharply. It was the impact of the falling bonds on pension funds including the Bank’s own that spooked them.
I also thought the Fed was overdoing the bond sales. Last week two US banks collapsed, and a third sought substantial financial help. The share prices of a few US banks show investors are worrying  about them. Losses on government bonds were part of the problem at Silicon Valley Bank when it went down.The Fed had to announce a large line  of credit for banks generally and pump liquidity into the markets to avoid further bank runs, reversing some of the excessive tightness of money brought on by bond sales. Just like the Bank of England with its pensions problems.
The ECB has only just started Quantitative tightening and says it has no bank troubles in its area. Credit Suisse was just over the border and said to be a one off. Nonetheless a few EU commercial banks have  suffered sharp  falls in share prices over the last week so the ECB should not be complacent. The main UK banks were much strengthened after 2009 and are not being fingered in the markets.
So why do these Central banks lurch from obviously inflationary policies to clearly over tight ones that threaten pension funds or banks in their areas? They ignore the growth rates of money and credit, failing to see that too much money usually brings on inflation and too little brings company and weak bank collapses.
The Central banks now share a dilemma. Carry on tightening and they could cause another crash. Relax too much and they could reignite inflation. That is why they should aim for a steady moderate increase in money and credit to avoid inflationary and deflationary shocks. The Bank of England should not carry on selling bonds at big losses. Commercial banks will now be tougher over new loans given the fears that stalk the markets.
The ECB which was very slow to try to curb the inflation it had encouraged needs to learn from the Bank of England’s bitter experience with the pension funds and from the USA losing a couple of banks.
March 19, 2023
Is it any wonder that the international banking system is appearing unstable so many countries are charging lemming like towards Net Zero and all its associated parts without the massive investment required in the nuts and bolts infrastructures for it to have a cat in hells chance of actually succeeding.
There is an ever growing number of scientists, engineers, scholars, even politicians who are against all the super hype that has poured out of these “expert committees” that have sold their doomsday predictions to the gullible pressure groups within political parties.
The globalists can desire whatever they want, but it comes at a heck of a price for the critical masses who are not convinced in its objectives raising doubts and uncertainty.
Banks hate it, its too unsettling and high risk.
March 19, 2023
The reins have been handed over to the UN WEF & IMF
March 19, 2023
@glen cullen; You make it sound a recent event, not something that has impacted the UK economy and politics for close on 50 years!
March 19, 2023
It impacts everyday the democracy of the UK, every time one of our MPs attend their conference and when our government follow their instruction âŠ.these bodies are not elected by the UK electorate
March 19, 2023
@glen cullen; So why did so many on the right opt to support such economic forums, and implore floating voters to do likewise, when many on the left wanted nothing to do with them. Indeed the Callaghan cabinet was split (at the time of the IMF bailout). At least one cabinet ranking left-winger at the time was accused of being ‘insane’ by certain right wing newspapers, for daring to suggest the UK was ceding to much of our sovereignty to others. Quite correctly, it was also pointed out what the left proposed, and wanted, was splendid international isolationism…
March 19, 2023
For 50 years the problem has been that we surrendered the governance of the UK to the EU. Parliament was compelled to run our economy âfor the benefit of the EUâ we were also in phase 1 and 2 of Monetary Union. Our âopt-outâ was from phase 3 only i.e that actual introduction of the physical currency.
March 19, 2023
@Lynn A; The Euro is an irrelevant to a discussion about the influence of the IMF, UN and WEF. Non EU. non Euro, countries also attend and their economies are (un)duly influenced by such meetings, as would members of the EU had the single currency never existed, even in ECU/EUA forms.
All three, the UN, IMF and WEF, were formed before the UK was a member of the EEC, in fact both the IMF and UN precede the creation of the ECSC/EEC by some years. Not everything in politics can be blamed on the EU or Euro.
March 19, 2023
I am currently reading a magnificent book on the ‘long century’ – the era from approximately 1480 to 1620 in Europe that is generally referred to as the Renaissance.
All the troubles and benefits that we grumble and moan about today were being grumbled and moaned about then – the overwhelming increase in population, how to go about getting taxes paid, the possibility of achieving a Europe-wide governing (or at least advisory) body, the violence of the young, the real value of money and so on.
I fear we live in a loop – centuries long in some cases – that condemns us all to believe we have the answers to everything, only to find that we actually don’t.
Carry on the good work Sir John, but don’t expect anyone in a position of influence to listen to you
March 19, 2023
History may not repeat but it rhymes.
Have a look at “The fourth turning” for more examples of how generations cycle through particular characteristics. Or look at Roy Dallio’s writings on credit cycles.
Unfortunately those in power don’t appear to learn from history.
March 19, 2023
In short, these people don’t know what they’re doing.
March 19, 2023
Well you know the saying, ” He who ignores history is likely to repeat its errors.” or words to that effect.
March 19, 2023
I’m afraid you are right. Sir John talks and asks for sensible policies but he belongs to a Party that has lost it’s way and purpose. The increases in Corporation tax make no sense so what’s their purpose? It has to be to wreck the economy and therefore reasons to re-join their true love, the EU. Zero values, no support for our way of life, culture or patriotism. I’m afraid that wokism/pc and support for everything minority has taken precedence. We all see it and they have lived the consequences. They have had 13 years to address it. The FACTS that they haven’t, shows either gross incompetence or actual support. I now know it’s the latter.
March 19, 2023
Pass laws to criminalise woke fascism before it destroys our nation
March 19, 2023
Just satirise it, daily.
March 19, 2023
+1
March 19, 2023
@DOM; Indeed, but first one would have to define what “fascism” is and is not, careful of what you wish for…
A better way, as @agricola says, just satirise it, daily.
March 19, 2023
Do you genuinely not know the definition of fascism? No wonder we just repeat and repeat and repeat.
Fascism is not jackboots on the ground. Itâs the joining of political and corporate power against the individual. The Corporations, run by employees, which have no human attributes (no nation, no homeland, no lifetime, no responsibilities) fund the political class thereby cutting the power of the electorate to SELECT candidates, and in return the political class legislate to advance the interests of corporations – they are individually often rewarded by âcontingent corruptionâ – obtaining a seat on the board but more importantly a regular cheque for past legislative kow-towing.
There are institutions which teach would-be politicians and Kings how to be a good Corporatist, common Purpose and WEF spring to mind.
March 19, 2023
@Lynne A; Yes thanks, unlike you it seems…
“Fascism is not jackboots on the ground.”
Nor is communism, but both ideals can (and usual do) lead to just that, hence why so many now conflate the two (not helped by a lack of understanding of 1930s European history and events, choosing my words carefully).
Itâs the joining of political and corporate power against the individual.”
Wrong, in both fascism and communism, total control is taken (eventually) by a single political party, sometimes a single person, against both corporate entity and the individual. Both end up working to sustain the ‘Party’ and its ideals.
March 19, 2023
When Stalin and Hitler signed their accord, they could not see the difference between fascism and communism. Thatâs why in the â30s people could and did march with the fascists in the morning and communists in the afternoon.
No âindividualâ or âsingle partyâ can operate without the corporations backing.
March 19, 2023
@Lynn A; Both were dictators, the fact that their politics were polar opposites was irrelevant to men who wanted and had total power over their respective native and annexed lands and people. Why was the accord was signed, each understood the other was a very real threat to each others ambitions and perhaps very existence.
I have no doubt, in the 1930s, a few people did indeed “march for fascists in the morning and communists in the afternoon” but that only tells us how ignorant, misinformed, impressionable such people were!
March 19, 2023
Come on.
Be specific.
And what of “free speech”?
March 19, 2023
They do it on purpose.
March 19, 2023
Yes.
You can’t build back better unless first you’ve destroyed everything.
March 19, 2023
you might build back, but better?
March 19, 2023
A judge has stopped an Iranian who r*p*d a British woman from being deported. This now means illegal immigrants will do this to women to stop being deported. They will get free housing and food for 2 years with good behaviour then British citizenship and benefits for life. A much better outcome than being sent back to living in Iran.
Please explain to me why British women should vote for the Conservative Party?
March 19, 2023
Javelin
Yet another judge completely out of touch with real life. Should be removed from his position.
Pas a new law give them a choice.
Full life term in prison or 10 years in prison followed by deportation.â°
It doesn’t help the victim but at least they know real justice was seen to be done.
March 19, 2023
Seems just as women were earning a place in this world things are going backwards. So it’s ok for a woman to be raped. It’s ok for women to have to compete in transgender races. I’m one woman….yes I do know what a woman is…who won’t be voting for this nonsense.
March 19, 2023
Javelin: “Please explain to me why British women should vote for the Conservative Party?”
It’s a gender neutral question, Javelin. On the Tory party record over the last four years, what is there for any sane individual to vote for in the Tory party?
March 19, 2023
What possible reason would the Judge have for doing that?
March 19, 2023
It’s worse than that. Any Iranian who lands here ONLY has to criticise their Countries regime and they’re here for life at the expense of the 46%. Wise up people. We can’t afford more of the same and the socialists weaklings in Worstminster.
March 19, 2023
The result of ECHR
March 19, 2023
Just another reason to vote Reform
March 19, 2023
@glen cullen; A vote for Reform = a ‘woke’ Labour majority government, if not an even worse triple dose of wokness via a coalition of woke Labour, woke LibDems, woke Greens. đ
March 19, 2023
We must, with a passion for democracy and strength of character, dream that our single vote could perhaps evoke a change âŠ..the Dutch people fought against the system and achieved a win for the Farmers Party, maybe just maybe we could do the same with the Reform Party
Never vote tactically Always vote with your heart
UK Independence Party won 24 seats and 27% of the popular vote at the 2014 european elections â it can happen again !
March 19, 2023
Please God NEVER in European elections!
There was no job associated with winning European Elections, so we could afford to vote against the political establishment, we canât do that in real elections.
March 19, 2023
@glen cullen; “Always vote with your heart”
Yes, and that’s why voters must reject here-today, gone-tomorrow, populist politics that pollutes ones grey matter…
I suggest you read up on your beloved Dutch “Farmers Party” (f.1958, d.1981), even at their height they appear to have held little real influence – their best election, 1967, returned just seven seats for them, and that was with a party list PR voting system!
UKIP might well have won 24 seats, out of some 750, in the EP but they had zero political influence, either in the EP or Westminster.
March 20, 2023
@glen Cullen; When you say the Dutch “Farmers Party”, do you actually mean the current BoerBurgerBeweging” (FarmerâCitizen Movement)? Sometimes being pedantic matters!…
If so, I’m still at a lost as to what you expect from them, currently they have 1 MP, being projected by some opinion polls to win 15 in the upcoming 2023 elections, this within a parliament of 150 seats. Yes they might be King makers within any coalition but that does not always bode well for their polices or the future, as the UK LibDems found out 2010-2015, and it took the SNP 36 years to recover electorally from their late ’70s Westminster voting record.
March 19, 2023
âCarry on Bankingâ ensues, but Kenneth Williams or Charles Hawtrey would act better as governers than Andrew Bailey or George Carney.
March 19, 2023
I see Bernard Bresslaw as the Governor of the Bank of England.
March 19, 2023
Bloke – Brilliant. Just thinking of this has made my day! In what role would we put Sid James, though?
March 19, 2023
PM Johnson
March 19, 2023
The ABC of monetarism. Itâs almost inconceivable that the central banks are oblivious to these basic laws. Of course administered price rises do add to the problem if the administration refuses to reverse that disaster even in the face of inflation.
But then the medical establishment has stoked a health crisis – Bridgen explained it.
The Defence Department donât know that a war is unwinnable when you run out of ammunition.
The King is on the board of the WEF, annoyed that there is still ice in the Arctic after 50 years of predicting there would be none âin 5 yearsâ.
The Archbishop of Canterbury does not even mention the killing of thousands of Christians annually.
The women of the ruling elitists Van der Leyen and Nuland, think that 6 men in a boat can be sold as the perpetrators of the Nordstream disaster.đđ
And the peasants make effigies of their President to burn – practising. And nobody knows why!
March 19, 2023
You are of course correct; this is all part of the plan. War is coming, it has to we are too many mouths to feed. Why do you think the super-rich are buying up farms in the mid-west.
March 19, 2023
Peter Wood: ” we are too many mouths to feed. ”
Only if you reject technological advances we’ve made in the last century. Hopefully with the elections in the Netherlands, there will be a change to the anti agricultural policies of the WEF.
But, make no mistake about it, the coming food shortages are politically inspired and unnecessary.
March 19, 2023
APL
Not just politically inspired, but planned and even legislated for with reduction in Nitrogen, land taken out of food production, farmers put out of business with re-wilding etc.etc.
March 19, 2023
I would agree with you, were it not for the ‘Net Zero’ madness. Our leaders are taking us down a path of fewer resources, higher costs. Wars will break out in a variety of places over resources that could have been found or made available. We have 2 national dictators who think like 19th century emperors. The democratic states have no leaders worthy of their positions,simply focusing on thr next woke headline.
March 19, 2023
The problem is Peter, that war is not coming. The right to fight is a precious one. Neil Oliver said that we âmust say Noâ, but fascism takes away your right to say NO, and your right to fight.
I see this Government has invited Afghans in hiding to come to the U.K. Nice of them. Although we have not been defeated in battle for 1,000 years, we suffered what a defeated country suffers. Invasion, rape and pillage.
The Sunak signs our Treaty of Versailles (surrendering part of the country and therefore the whole country to foreign law) and calls it a Victory!
This is going to end very badly.
March 19, 2023
LA
You could not have said it better.
March 19, 2023
I don’t think we will see fascism in our country, but we will be so drained of capability, food, energy that we will be of no consequence in any conflict. Our national leaders are not interested in good economic management.
March 19, 2023
Lynn Atkinson.
Taking no prisoners there this morning then Lynn?
A very very good post.
March 19, 2023
+1 LA.
You’re on the money today Lynnđ.
March 19, 2023
Lynn Atkinson: “can be sold as the perpetrators of the Nordstream disaster.”
Yes, these people are idiots.
But worse, the Nordstream attack wasn’t an attack on Russia. It was an attack on German national interest.
It’s just a matter of time before the Germans realize that.
March 20, 2023
+1
March 19, 2023
Nobody in the know makes money from stability.
March 19, 2023
+1
Agree.
And it struck me that the SVB collapse will put an end to a lot of tech innovation. Very convenient for some?
March 19, 2023
@Cuibono; Indeed, there are many questions about the whys and wherefores of the SVB collapse, just as many companies and countries have realized they need to take silicon based high-tech back in house, or at least be careful of who you share your IP with. Pss, anyone want to buy some typewriters…
March 19, 2023
Or âwanna come on a phishing trip?â
The powers-that-be wanted all this horrible techâŠand see how much faster a bank run happens when accounts can be emptied digitally. No queuing round the block like in 2008.
Typewriters = employment âŠalthough admittedly the typing pool brought us to our present predicament. âPsst..anyone want quills and ink?â
March 19, 2023
That’s another excellent reason as to why stability is a Good Thing.
March 19, 2023
The speculators make money when the market rises, and they make money when the market falls.
The Central Banks and Regulators are not protecting the interests of the little people who are worst affected at the wide swinging of policies intended to ensure their Governments can carry on squandering ÂŁbillions regardless of the idiocy of their schemes.
They are banksters who are doing the Globalists and Governments’ dirty work – which is why they are never held to account for their actions.
And the speculators make money.
March 19, 2023
In 1900, there were 2286 Building Societies. There are probably fewer than 50 now. Those organisations seemed more local, friendly and solidly-based without the clumsy obstructive rigidity of the way banks now operate.
March 19, 2023
Perhaps central bankers should take a long holiday , as when at their desks they are constantly trying to correct their own screwups only to create the next screwup.
March 19, 2023
Given the chaos within the financial markets over the past couple of decades, perhaps we should have a long hard look at how we define, Banks, insurance companies, investment organisations and the like.
Historically Banks were supposed to be the rock solid foundation for simple money management, which everyone trusted, perhaps they were even boring, but unquestionably stable.
The financial markets are now more like a casino with few rules. no wonder it is all starting to fall apart, encouraged by Government who themselves are actually printing money like it’s going out of fashion.
We simply cannot continue to go on as we have for the past 20-30 years where headlines appear to be more important than actual results.
Don’t get me started on the farcical policy of net Zero, because it will not be Zero emissions, but a zero balance in everyones bank account !
March 19, 2023
JR: “Coupled with interest rates at zero it was bound to be very inflationary. So it proved.”
So not ‘Putin’s war of aggression’ then. Plain old bovine incompetence of our own administrative state ?
The other thing they did too, perversions of international institutions to promote the neo-con agenda. That has accelerates the de-dollarization of international trade. The Saudi’s of all countries, now looking to Russia and China for their primary product – and who can blame them? China sees a market for their oil products for at least another fifty years, or until Saudi reserves are exhausted. Where as the West, with it’s ‘net zero’ insanity, is telling Saudi Arabia ( and other hydrocarbon extracting states ), ‘We don’t want your product after 2030’.
Yet, now they’ve ‘sanctioned’ Russian hydrocarbons, ‘the West’ have gone ‘cap in hand’ to the same middle east countries begging for more gas and oil. What a deranged and schizophrenic policy!
And ….. there’s more!
Every other country in the world has taken note of the manner in which the West confiscated Russian assets. Learning the lesson that no country can ever again make the assumption that their international assets are safe in London or New York.
JR: “I warned against Quantitative tightening, selling government bonds at ever larger losses to tighten money yet more. ”
You must know, that the dire economic situation we are in now, is a result of the rejection ( for the above reasons ) of the US$. The US Federal Reserve has no option to QT, to mop up the tsunami of international USD that are flowing back onshore. To do otherwise would be to lead to hyperinflation in the US domestic economy.
Talk about ‘Hobson’s choice’. Europe on the other hand, is facing the exact opposite problem. US $ circulating in Europe are leaving the region. Then, Europe faces massive hikes in hydrocarbon prices – gas that used to flow through NordStream to Germany, now has to be shipped across the Atlantic at much greater cost. Anthony Blinken is on public record saying Europe’s misfortune, is US companies economic opportunity. Some allies!
March 19, 2023
Politicians have in the past couple of decades transferred the control, power & the fiscal and monetary decision making ability to outside bodies ie the BoE, the OBR, the EU (via the Windsor Agreement), the UN WEF and the UN IMF
Every time our politicians cedes authority and policy making, theyâre weakening parliament and democracy
March 19, 2023
They are in breach of our Constitution!
The Constitutional Monarch has one Job. To defend the Constitution against all politicians.
But the Constitution is their plaything and the Monarch is their puppet âmeeting Van Der Leyen because the Government told him toâ. If the Monarch is just a mouthpiece of the Government he is of no use to us. He should think about that! And I am from a Service family – I have been a Royalist all my life.
March 19, 2023
+1
March 19, 2023
Over regulation of banking has led to “too big to fail” banks.
No proper market would ever have “too big to fail” entitites.
We need to makes up our minds (as do Switzerland, the eu, U.S. etc) if we want a free banking market or state-run banks. This between-the-stalls arrangement is the worst of all worlds.
March 19, 2023
Central Bankers have never run a company ; if they had any real life experience they would never have introduced some of the belt tightening restrictions that have taken place . Our economy is not alone in having to face the lack of stimulation and , as it stands , every single citizen here has to suffer the consequences . We must turn our backs on outside controls and only implement measures that are to our benefit and advantage .
March 19, 2023
Banking is no longer about sound money, serving business, industry and people. Instead it is about what the banksters can get away with.
Probably the main reason for dropping the gold standard. Too great a restriction on fleecing people.
March 19, 2023
Central banks didn’t do the right things before, so they are unlikely to take this advice:
Once again I dare to suggest that economic mismanagement is a deliberate policy, to take us to a point where the great reset can begin.
Heaven help us.
March 19, 2023
Relax. The market is alive and well. There is no single reserve currency anymore. No petro-dallar. There are competitive currencies. The west can no longer keep tabs via Swift of world economic flows. Itâs a ability to threaten economic wipeout has gone. The worldâs countries are no longer in lockstep marching towards a global one world government.
There has been a Reset. In Davos they donât know that yet.
March 19, 2023
Six or seven weeks ago they were telling us the EU was fairing better than the rest of the world with growth prospects and a lower need to increase interest rates, and lower inflation, perhaps its just their delayed reporting and their reckoning?
William Keegan in the Guardian was telling us we were the sick man of not just Europe but the World, worst bar Russia in the G20, all because of Brexit.
March 19, 2023
It was observed yesterday in the MsM that Central Banks are protecting failed banks, with taxpayer money. As a result boosting and rewarding those individuals that are the problem for us all â so perpetuating the banking industry mess and everyone else’s misery.
Then as with the BoE while protecting what they think of as their own(chums) they are destroying economies and are creating recessions. All this instead of controlling inflation. And in particular what does our Conservative Government do, it rewards the Bank of England, helps their staff income and so on, by letting them dump every single mistake these individuals make on the taxpayer.
Never ending decline by all those given the responsibility of management, refusing to act, not being accountable or responsible for their out and out right failings. What other section of society continually rewards failure on this scale?
March 19, 2023
‘[Central banks] should aim for a steady moderate increase in money and credit to avoid inflationary and deflationary shocks.’
This is central planning.âIt fails in general for reasons you could better explain to me than the other way around.âYou’ll also be aware that the Austrian School think this central management of the price of money is what causes boom and bust.âIt does not avoid it, as you wish.âI point it out because the idea may interest other readers.
March 19, 2023
From yesterdays Daily Telegraph âOur Budget forecasts ‘almost guaranteed to be wrong’, admits OBR chief â
Then also âwarned that it was âdangerousâ to ignore fiscal rules when the economy was so reliant on outside investors to fund the deficit.â
– having destroyed the UK economy and ensuring it is suppressed this Conservative Government is logically creating further risk
March 19, 2023
Would someone please rid me of these ‘OBR’
March 19, 2023
Good morning.
In a word – Politics.
When elections loom and political parties being to jostle for votes, the economy is centre stage of debate.
And the current governments history is appalling,
March 19, 2023
What us the point of a central bank that cannot control inflation? Too many of them are selectively myopic in recognizing the inflation that they cause, as is the case with the asset bubbles that flowed from QE run riot.
Meanwhile, let us hope for UBS’s sake that Swiss officialdom is not doing to it what Gordon Brown did to Lloyds when his “saving the world” antics led to its absorption of the failing HBOS.
March 19, 2023
Alas SJ I believe that the BoE now consider your solutions to be ‘old methodology’ and not suited for the problems of this century. LOL but it’s not funny, it is demented.
There is a saying that suggests we all learn from history but in the case of the BoE, et al, they appear to have completely ignored it and therefore demonstrate they have actually learned nothing. Meanwhile, we tax payers pay for their ignorance as we always must.
When will this country ever elect and appoint true EXPERTs for such critical positions?
March 19, 2023
None of our UK banks should fail, after all they are regulated, aren’t they? They are regulated to ensure none can fail again . Such another financial crash should mean heads will roll.
For the BoE to slow interest rates down to help banks out at the expense of people by prolonging high inflation would be wrong. Remember it’s ultimately the government who would bear the cost of the outcome at the ballot box.
This government should confirm the situation with the UK banks now , but the answers already there, with banks being regulated all should be fine.đ
March 19, 2023
As quoted by a financial columnist quoting a banker he admired “giving capital to a bank is like giving a gallon of beer to a drunk; you know what will come of it, but you cannot know which wall he will choose”. Nowadays, of course, it is a hedge rather than a wall.
March 19, 2023
Is there any objection to leaving base rate unchanged for the rest of this year so that we may know how fast inflation is reducing?
March 19, 2023
I haven’t yet seen the price of petrol or food decrease …nor my energy bills …nor my council tax
Could someone let me now when inflation is actually falling
March 19, 2023
Why do we the people pay taxes??? Nothing can stop what is coming, NOTHING.
March 19, 2023
Try hard boiled eggs.
March 19, 2023
Home Office â17th â 18th March 2023
Illegal Immigrants – 364
Boats â
Thatâs a lot of hotel rooms âŠ.and not one will be sent back
March 19, 2023
It’s pathetic that in today’s world anyone who talks sense is ignored while idiots get the headlines being outrageous. MSM like the BBC only want to hear their “experts” instead. The lunatics run the asylum.