IMF forecasts

The IMF thinks all the western advanced economies will slow down a lot this year. Of course they will, because the Federal Reserve Board in the USA, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England have shifted from very inflationary policies to very tight policies. They have hiked interest rates, stopped buying up bonds and encouraged a credit squeeze. On top of this the UK has had a tax raising budget to add to the squeeze, whilst the Bank of England has gone for an ultra austere policy of selling bonds it owns at losses to drive up mortgages and other interest rates. The IMF as a result puts the UK towards the bottom of the pack for the year ahead after a great 2022. It may be too optimistic about some of the others, given the need for the Euro area to take more action to get inflation down.

These lurches of policy by advanced countries are unhelpful and unnecessary. Switzerland, China and Japan avoided the high inflation figures Ā of the USA and Europe/UK by not buying up so many bonds and running such a loose policy.Ā  Only the UK has added a large rise in business tax and substantial fiscal drag on personal income taxes by not raising allowances in line with inflation. These tax changes will ensure slower growth. TheĀ  business tax rises when added to the windfall taxes hitting the energy sector will ensure weak investment flows in the year ahead adding to the downturn. The Bank of England should reduce the severity of its bond sales, allowing its balance sheet to shrink as bonds fall due for repayment. The Treasury should abandon its tax rises and understand that it will collect more revenue if it allows more growth.

112 Comments

  1. Mark B
    April 12, 2023

    Good morning.

    These lurches of policy . . .

    A sure sign of people who do not know what they are doing, and a just panicking, furiously pressing buttons and pulling levers in the hope that something might work.

    How did it ever come to this ? Or, ‘is’ this the plan ? šŸ˜‰

    1. PeteB
      April 12, 2023

      Agreed Mark. Tory Ministers opted to disuade businesses from setting up/staying in the UK with windfall taxes and higher corp tax. The BoE just dithers and switches strategy to match. Jokers and clowns…

      Incidentally, now international energy prices are normalising will the windfall tax on windfall profits get reduced too?

    2. Ian wragg
      April 12, 2023

      This is the plan
      Only in Britain is the power so expensive because of the net zero nonesense. Subsidising windmills at the same time letting them sell the power at the same price of gas generation.
      The gas generation is so expensive because units are run on low load making them uneconomical.
      Importing gas and oil when we’re sat on years worth of the stuff and finally having a Chicom duo incharge deliberately discouraging industrial activity

    3. Cuibono
      April 12, 2023

      +many
      The one thing I do know is that whether leaked in order to obfuscate with accusations of ā€œconspiracy theoryā€ or whether genuine prediction ā€¦.everything that has happened was available to read some 20 years ago on the internet.
      Even things like one global religion which is forging ahead.
      I always took the view that our leaders werenā€™t that duplicitous or suicidal or plain stupid.
      How wrong I was.

    4. Ian B
      April 12, 2023

      @Mark B +1 clearly the plan, there is no other logical explination

    5. Peter
      April 12, 2023

      Meanwhile, Hunt appoints Ultra-Remainer Megan Green to the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, responsible for setting interest rates.

      It looks like a deliberate act of sabotage before this government gets booted out at the General Election.

    6. Atlas
      April 12, 2023

      Indeed, do they know what they are doing – or is it ‘groupthink’ – or are there more dodgy financial ‘schemes’ (c.f. 2007/8) which they are trying to stop imploding?

    7. Peter
      April 15, 2023

      Nothing much on the Pentagon leaks by a 21 year old.

      Apparently, Ukrainian success may be quite the opposite and US troops are already on the ground. Reaction is shoot the whistle blower rather than address the claims.

      Not sure how Britain justifies all the spend on Ukraine. It should not be something that involves this country.

  2. Stred
    April 12, 2023

    The IMF, headed by Lagarde, are signed up to the WEF. What to you expect?

    1. rose
      April 12, 2023

      The IMF helped to overthrow Miss Truss for cutting tax. Then they criticised our economy for its high tax.

      1. Nottingham Lad Himself
        April 12, 2023

        LIz Truss overthrew Liz Truss, and spectacularly so.

        1. rose
          April 12, 2023

          And now they are pointing out we should not have got rid of our energy security. Another thing she was correcting, though it can’t be corrected overnight.

      2. Ashley
        April 12, 2023

        +1

    2. hefner
      April 12, 2023

      Lagarde moved from the IMF in September 2019. Wakey wakey.

    3. Stred
      April 12, 2023

      Sorry. Lagarde is ECB. Georgiava is IMF. Both are on the board of the WEF. The EU is signed up, as are the biggest banks. Stsrmer prefers Davos to Westminster. Sunak is a WEF plant. The BoE is stacked with Remainers and ESG Green enforcers. We’re on the way back and MPs can only stay quiet and watch.

      1. glen cullen
        April 12, 2023

        +1

  3. turboterrier
    April 12, 2023

    Can we honestly say without fear of contradiction that we have the right people with all the necessary experience in place in government, parliament and the treasury who actually fully understand fiscal policies to properly manage this country?
    Because to the taxpayer who actually pays for almost everything they do in so many different ways there is something seems to be lacking in at times to be nothing short of applied common sense. The classic problem waste by government, civil and public services has never been addressed.
    All the time there is no accountability alongside responsibility nothing much is ever going to change.

    1. a-tracy
      April 12, 2023

      I had to look them up; most aren’t making an impact or explaining their achievements, and a couple are in the press all the time because they’re not politically correct and trained to guard every word out of their mouth and let’s face it their department’s employees are so left-wing they’ve bought down every Minister put in to get them to work productively. Frazer and Keegan look like sisters; all I know about Keegan is she smirks at Hunt.
      https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers

    2. rose
      April 12, 2023

      Not only has diversity suppressed merit, but we also have to allow for the odd Chinese state agent in the Bank and Treasury.

  4. Peter Gardner
    April 12, 2023

    The lurches on policy within the Tory Party don’t help either. Change the leader and the entire government alters course 180 degrees. Instead of scratching around for popular policies that might attract votes but which the party doesn’t wholly believe in and therefore will not be able to implement effectively is no substitute for developing a well thought through set of objectives and policies based on a philosphy of government the Party actually, as a whole, believes in. Whilst there are many Conservative MPs and members with strong beliefs, the Party does not get behind them because so many don’t agree with them. Ditch the broad church mantra. It is now excessive and debillitating. A serious political party must believe in something other than anything goes so long as a few people might vote for it.

    1. Lynn Atkinson
      April 12, 2023

      One of my small business tenants had Ā£30 out of his business last month.
      If the Tories are planning to ā€˜allow things to brighten before the electionā€ in the hope of a last minute swing, then they need to know that those they have bankrupted and for whom the light will never go on again will never forgive them.
      Russia has a more healthy economy than the U.K. – that was also in the IMF report.
      How did that happen? A bounce from war – as we have more than double the number of special forces of any other ā€˜3rdā€™ country on the battlefield, Iā€™m thinking we are at war too. I saw one British man killed – filmed by the Ukrainians who were trying to rescue him who were killed too. Precision hit.

      1. R.Grange
        April 12, 2023

        How did that happen, Lynn? I’d say ‘the West’ in effect imposed sanctions on its own economies. Our leaders in Washington, London and Brussels displayed their usual hubris, assuming their diktats would be followed, and not realising Russia is quite well-regarded in much of the rest of the world. When given a democratic choice, many European electorates are not following the war option either. Just look at how many Western political leaders have fallen from from power since February 2022.

      2. a-tracy
        April 12, 2023

        We’re always hated for putting our forces in long term. We go to ‘help’ the Afghanistan people, yet we are now told they were helping us? If the women in other Countries want to encourage their boys to turn into men who won’t educate their daughters, won’t let their women be free or drive and turn into complete misogynists, then what affair is it of ours? The men fleeing should stay and try to take back control after their training not leg it.

      3. Ian B
        April 12, 2023

        @Lynn Atkinson +1
        So has China and many others in part aided of the UK Governments import, import rules and asperation. Russia recieves to much western money along with very high reserves in the first place, for it to be affected by any Westminster sound-bite. Even those well positioned in this Government have seen their families profit directly from Russia.

      4. a-tracy
        April 12, 2023

        China and India are supporting Russia, aren’t they? Yet we collectively take no sanctions against them, harming the West’s sanctions. It’s becoming like one of those crazy films you watch, thinking, will this get better soon, or should I switch off?

        Meanwhile, Biden who took the West into this conflict waltzes into Southern Ireland which doesn’t contribute to NATO preferring to spend 2% of its GDP on its own priorities.

        1. Hat man
          April 12, 2023

          Not crazy at all, a-tracy. As with fossil-fuelled energy, China and India are looking after their own national interest as usual. They see Western countries suffering from anti-Russia sanctions that have boomeranged against them, and they aren’t going to go the same way. And do you really imagine Rishi Sunak would want to sanction India?

          1. a-tracy
            April 13, 2023

            I agree I don’t think China and Russia are crazy.
            I think the West are.
            It is a crazy film like reality we are living through at the moment, with a man in charge who is in the pocket of Biden and other World influential leaders and not working in Conservative voter’s interests.

      5. Mark B
        April 13, 2023

        Russia has things to sell which others want to buy. And instead of using the US Dollar they will be using the Rouble.

    2. Bloke
      April 12, 2023

      Adam Smith was bright and right, but Lurch was the servant and not part of the family.
      This Govt scars family values acting like the monster at the door.

      1. Nottingham Lad Himself
        April 12, 2023

        It’s side-splitting, to imagine what Adam Smith would have said about brexit, and about those who militated for it.

        1. Bloke
          April 13, 2023

          Imagine yourself waiting 40 years for a referendum on rejoining the EU and losing again.

        2. Martin in Bristol
          April 13, 2023

          Adam liked independent sovereign nations and made the case for the advantages of free trade.
          The opposite of the EU

    3. rose
      April 12, 2023

      “is no substitute for developing a well thought through set of objectives and policies based on a philosphy of government the Party actually, as a whole, believes in.”

      That used to be Conservative Unionism, a belief in the family, the Monarchy, the Church, the country, and a small unintrusive state, with sound money, strong defence and law and order.

      So many unconservative, anti unionist, unpatriotic, recklessly irresponsible people have joined the Conservative Party that a leader could no longer lead on these things. Glaring example: 22 Conservative Unionists voted against the Windsor Framework/Stormont Brake in the Commons, and two in the Lords.

  5. Fedupsouthener
    April 12, 2023

    Why does it feel like the collective establishment is intent on actually causing our economy to go down the pan? Everything I read or hear about this governments direction is heading in the direction of absolute failure. Watching Sunak crawling around Biden last night and previously with Macron fills me with shame. What a weak, pathetic bunch of idiots we have in charge of our country John. The taxpayer is actually having to pay to keep known terrorists here now because ‘we can’t deport them’. Oh, for crying out loud, I reckon the Loony party could do better…..oh wait..they’re already in.

    1. Donna
      April 12, 2023

      Sunak makes my flesh creep the same way Blair did.

      1. Ashley
        April 12, 2023

        Indeed he even sounds rather like Blair. Sunak was a disaster of Chancellor and seems determined to continue in the same vein. Tax borrow, print & piss down the drain, open door illegal immigration policy, police and criminal justice that does almost nothing about most crimes, expensive intermittent net zero energy lunacy…

    2. BOF
      April 12, 2023

      Fus
      How I agree. I believe that the intention is that the UK fails and we have a government doing the bidding of malign external influencers. They certainly do nothing in the interests of the UK or the people.

    3. Mickey Taking
      April 12, 2023

      But the Monster Raving Loony party was generally amusing. This loony Party is certainly not!

    4. Christine
      April 12, 2023

      What a sickening sight watching the usurper fawn over the visit of this person here to celebrate the subjugation of part of the UK. Sunak should be ashamed of himself. How, Sir John, you can remain loyal to your party is a mystery. Every action this government takes further damages the future of our country.

      1. graham1946
        April 12, 2023

        Not such a mystery – he saw what happened to Carswell.

    5. Timaction
      April 12, 2023

      Indeed. As was pointed out last night it is now Government policy to allow known illegal immigrant terrorists to stay here under the ECHR protections, than to protect the indigenous population. When an absolute lefty fool was challenged on this he said that it was better they were here than in their own Countries where we couldn’t “monitor” what they were up to. You couldn’t make up how bad our Government and its supporting fools have come under the guise of woke/pc left wing ideology. If any of my kith or kin are hurt as a consequence of this known dangerous policy I will sue everyone of the individuals in the chain as well as Government to hold them to account for what they know now as well as the risks going forward. Where are the msm to hold them to account?

    6. Berkshire Alan
      April 12, 2023

      FUS
      You are not alone in your thoughts, there are plenty of us out here thinking the same !

  6. DOM
    April 12, 2023

    MD of the IMF , Kristalina Georgieva. She previously served as Vice-President of the European Commission under Jean-Claude Juncker from 2014 to 2016.

    EU grifter targets UK with her poisonous, destructive strategy

    1. Sea_Warrior
      April 12, 2023

      And she has been the subject of an investigation.

    2. formula57
      April 12, 2023

      @ DOM – the ” poisonous, destructive strategy” seems more home-grown than anything, alas.

      Perhaps the next election campaign will see the slogan “Tough on growth, tough on the causes of growth” from the Chancellor?

    3. Timaction
      April 12, 2023

      What qualifications does she possess for her role or is it membership of the gravy train EU/IMF/UN/WEF lefty cabal?

  7. Lynn Atkinson
    April 12, 2023

    Apropos your Tweet on Macron: what the U.K. Government is doing to its own people is ā€˜aggression by statesā€™, and as heā€™s become usual, the highest number of those ā€˜wiaā€™ are the Toryā€™s own supporters.

    1. Fedupsouthener
      April 12, 2023

      Lynn. I agree. It feels like not only Biden but Sunak hates this country.

  8. Donna
    April 12, 2023

    No PM wants to hold a General Election with a stagnant housing market and falling prices. So we’ll get another lurch later this year/early next year as Sunak attempts to create something resembling a “feel good” factor before he’s forced to hold a General Election.

    It’s deliberate. Huge pain now, so he can claim he’s “taken the tough choices, tamed inflation” blah blah blah and then there’ll be interest rate cuts, a high profile tax cut in the budget and they’ll create a mini-boom leading up to an autumn General Election.

    The economy isn’t being run for OUR benefit.

    1. a-tracy
      April 12, 2023

      I thought the people of the UK wanted house price rises to stall, especially the younger first-time buyers and movers in the South. Many areas of the North West didn’t see the tremendous gains seen in London, the SE and now the SW. E.g. A house bought for Ā£150,000 in 1989 is now worth around Ā£350,000 after considerable improvements, a conservatory, new replacements to all interior fitting and mortgage interest payments over 25 years. You can still buy a two-bed home for Ā£100k, or a fairly new two-bed retirement apartment for Ā£128k. A modern two-bedroom flat a walk away from the town centre for Ā£90k. A two-bed brand new bungalow with parking for Ā£190k.

      Isn’t over-inflated property gains what we are told is causing the biggest generational imbalance?

      1. Mike Wilson
        April 13, 2023

        A house bought for Ā£150k in Wokingham in 1989 would now be worth at Keats Ā£600k without touching it.

        Your figures are odd. A 2 up, 2 down terrace in Newcastle or Liverpool in 1997 could be had for Ā£15k. By the time Blair and Brown had worked their magic (by 2008) that same house was going for Ā£120k and Northern Rock were offering 110% mortgages to anyone who self certified their wages. Local salaries of Ā£12 to Ā£15k pa barely moved in that time of low wage inflation and massive house price inflation.

        A house bought in 1989 for Ā£150k in many areas of the North would have been a palace. It got you a detached family home in Wokingham so would have bought a 6 bed in an acre of garden in Newcastle.

        1. a-tracy
          April 13, 2023

          My figures were all from current Zoopla listings on April 13, 2023.
          Not a palace, based on a 4 bedroom new build on a new estate in 1989.

        2. a-tracy
          April 14, 2023

          Mike aren’t public sector salaries the same in Newcastle and Liverpool as they are in Wokingham, so teachers earn the same, nurses and doctors, railway workers, and national wages rates are set for the passport office workers in Liverpool, the council workers, etc. NLW everywhere is the same.

          Zoopla has a listing history on homes for sale in Newcastle U Tyne.
          A two-bed listed on 5 Apr 2023 for Ā£125k was last sold 27 Feb 1998 for Ā£28,500.
          It has a modern kitchen and integrated appliances, a modern bathroom with shower, a rear porch, a recently replaced electric fuse board and modern decoration and flooring; it’s not gone up much since 2008, then worth around Ā£120,000.

          A glance at Wokingham on properties currently on sale at around Ā£600,000.
          6 Apr 2023 listed Ā£650,000 last sold 8 Jul 2014 Ā£340,000.
          A four bed like the one I was originally writing about but in Wokingham is now on for Ā£630,000 last sold Ā£250,000 2 Sep 2002. You’re right; it doesn’t look like they’ve done much to it!

          Similar houses up here: Seems the biggest gains have been made from 2002.
          Today 4 bed detached (like your Ā£650,000 in WOK):
          listed 15/2 Ā£285,000(<Ā£10k), last sold 19 Oct 2018 Ā£222,995, 2004 Ā£185k.
          listed 20/2 Ā£340,000 (<10k), last sold 12 Jan 2017 Ā£284,995.
          listed 14/4 Ā£350,000, last sold 10 Oct 2005 Ā£186,000.
          listed 20/3 Ā£398,000 (<2k), last sold 14 Feb 2003 Ā£187,995.
          listed 13/4 Ā£375,000 (modernised, all new fittings), last sold 16 Jul 2001 Ā£115,000, 2013 Ā£160k

  9. majorfrustration
    April 12, 2023

    So Russia has better growth prospects than the UK – the tariffs must really be hurting.
    Shambles after shambles

    1. rose
      April 12, 2023

      They are selling raw materials of great value to the rest of the world and taking payment in roubles.

    2. R.Grange
      April 12, 2023

      And inflation in Russia is now announced as below 4%. I wonder what the official figure here is now supposed to be.

  10. Sea_Warrior
    April 12, 2023

    When will the never-ending, multi-facted ‘crisis’ be over? It’s been going since 2008. May I suggest that, as soon as inflation falls below 5%, the word ‘crisis’ is banned across government.

  11. Nigl
    April 12, 2023

    And in related news, the new person on the BOE rate setting committee is a Brexit hating American hawk who has accused the Tories of mis management and just happens to be a member of the Davis global elite.

    Couldnā€™t someone more sympathetic be found in the whole of the world. Another demonstration how you have lost control like the unaccountable Andrew Bailey keeping his job.

    Yesterday a Scandinavian banker was fired immediately due to losses from the recent SVB etc scandal. In the meantime public servants sail on blithely untouchable.

    And in other news re read that Civil Servants took 30% longer to recover from Long Covid that the rest of us and have taken the equivalent of 2100 years ā€˜manā€™ hours of work with stress.

    Am I alone in thinking they are just lazy and again unaccountable. Looking for a government comment or action, surprise, surprise, nothing .

    No wonder we are in such a mess. What are you doing about it? Let me guess. Nothing, again.

  12. Bloke
    April 12, 2023

    The low personal tax allowance discourages work effort and increases costs in paying benefits. Bad Chancellors make bad decisions. Heightening the personal tax allowance is one of the many sensible policies The Reform Party has. If the Conservative Party fulfilled Reformā€™s manifesto it is likely they would then be worthy of government and not causing the succession of nuisances they have for much of the last 13 years.

    1. turboterrier
      April 12, 2023

      Bloke
      It’s not the party and its policies it is the standard and commitment of its MPs elected. The way it is at the moment you are lucky if you get a handful of true old fashioned true conservatives with principles and belief.

  13. Mickey Taking
    April 12, 2023

    The months crawl by for this doomed government and we watch the spectre of Government humiliation constantly.
    Whoever imagines they will be re-elected? Oh! Sir John may demonstrate loyalty but I doubt he believes he’s on a winning team. Subject by subject the UK has a miserable failure for all to see.
    Pause and take a look at whats happening in Scotland, N.Ireland or Wales – you’ll find another another unmanaged mess.

  14. agricola
    April 12, 2023

    I do not get too wound up about the IMF because they are as much political as financial.
    When I look at the performance of the Treasury, Bank of England, the Chancellor, and the Prime Minister with only his own party in the Commons as a mandate, I ask myself the question, who are they working for. It is certainly not entrepreneurial England. It is not even a sovereign UK. You tell me.

  15. Dave Andrews
    April 12, 2023

    The Treasury should abandon its tax rises to allow more growth?
    Haven’t business already been assured this is a tax, borrow and waste government and the UK is not the place to invest? Who is going to be hoodwinked if they actually do reduce tax?

    1. Timaction
      April 12, 2023

      There has to be a plan to do us down with Corporation tax rises from 19-25%, personal tax allowances frozen until 2028, Capital Gains allowances reducing to Ā£6K this year and Ā£3K next year, inheritance tax rates frozen for decades, dividend tax rises Our taxes the highest ever on record. For what? What are the 46% getting for these taxes? Better health care, NO, Better Education? NO, reduced congestion? NO. Better roads, NO, Protection of our heritage and culture, NO, freedom of speech, NO, better protection from criminal’s and improvements in the criminal justice system, NO, foreign criminals deported, NO, More woke/Pc representation for all things minority, YES. What’s the point of the Tory’s?

    2. Ian wragg
      April 12, 2023

      Harbour energy the biggest investor in the North Sea has pulled our of futher exploration due to the windfall tax.
      Rolls Royce has stopped further investment in its SMR programme as th government has indicated it wants to Import the technology and the ztype 3q ships are being g built in Poland.
      That best describes the governments industrial strategy
      Shut down all manufacturing
      That’s the tory mantra for the next election.

  16. Cuibono
    April 12, 2023

    Why do we take any notice of the IMF anyway?
    Is this the Wild West or the High Seas of Elizabethan times or Chicago 1920s?
    Why so craven?

    And where is The Reform Party when it is needed to hold Tory toes to the fire?

    1. graham1946
      April 12, 2023

      Who knows? The MSM won’t give them the time of day. It’s all set for another round of musical chairs.

      1. Cuibono
        April 12, 2023

        +1
        Deckchairs on the deck of The Titanic?

  17. Christine
    April 12, 2023

    Jeremy Hunt, has announced that Brexit hating Megan Greene will be appointed as an external member to the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

    The betrayal just continues.

    1. Kayla Tomlinson
      April 12, 2023

      Could not make it up…

    2. hefner
      April 12, 2023

      What type of deep knowledge have you got to tell us that the American Megan Greene is Brexit hating. Donā€™t be shy, tell us what you know.

      1. Christine
        April 13, 2023

        Just look up her posts on Twitter

    3. glen cullen
      April 12, 2023

      Everyday another kick in the teeth

  18. Cuibono
    April 12, 2023

    Funny how the EU was meant to stop wars.
    ( Ecocide indeed! Look at Ukraine!)
    Yet their knowingly provocative action in NI, in saner times, would surely have led to military action by the U.K.?
    Especially with its new-won independenceā€¦lol!

  19. Narrow Shoulders
    April 12, 2023

    Are these forecasts ever in the vicinity of correct?

    What is the accepted margin of error?

    Why does all of the West outsource production to China so much that it can continue with its phenomenal growth? If net zero really is that important shouldn’t we be reducing outsourcing to countries that don’t subscribe to the doctrine? Some serious inconsistency here.

    1. rose
      April 12, 2023

      If the Co2 production is off the books it doesn’t exist.

    2. glen cullen
      April 12, 2023

      Sounds logical ….maybe they don’t actually believe, maybe they just want the UN WEF gold star

    3. Mark B
      April 13, 2023

      We are both witnessing and aiding the transfer of power from West to East. Those in the West that have heavily invested in the East are those who are pushing it here the hardest.

      Only the little people will suffer.

  20. Old Albion
    April 12, 2023

    Meanwhile another 1100 illegal migrants came ashore last week. How’s ‘stopping the boats’ coming along?

    1. Berkshire Alan
      April 12, 2023

      Old Albion
      Apparently and according to Press reports they now have proof that some who have come here were/still are terrorists.
      Difficult to make it up really, the taxpayers now paying to put up external terrorists and benefit claimants, next we may hear they have become policemen or border control guards, such is the chaos of the system !

    2. MWB
      April 12, 2023

      Old Albion, the 1100 illegals will pale into insignificance very soon. Labour will get in after the next election, and will open the doors fully, to anyone who wants to come to England. Everyone will see this when thousands of them are living in every neighbourhood, including the nieghbourhoods of those who think they live in nice rural areas.
      There are millions from Africa who will be here very soon. Meanwhile the electorate still votes LibLabCon.
      Looking forward to it ?

  21. Javelin
    April 12, 2023

    UK economic policy is designed to support the final salary pensions of senior civil servants. The whole of the British macro-economic policy is corrupt.

    The solution is very simple. Senior macro economic civil servants pensions should be invested in UK based businesses such as FTSE 250.

    In addition senior health civil servants should be barred for life from private health care.

    Senior education civil servants should be barred from paying for private schools for their children.

    Senior scientific government workers who are paid by the state should have their pension invested in science companies.

    And so on.

  22. Sir Joe Soap
    April 12, 2023

    Well jacking taxes up is never going to help investment and lack of investment will never help productivity and lack of productivity improvement will never help growth.
    So which party reliably promises lower taxes?

    1. Mike Wilson
      April 12, 2023

      So which party reliably promises lower taxes?

      Well the Tory Party has seen government borrowing go from Ā£1.3 trillion in 2010 to Ā£2.3 trillion now – and has increased interest rates by 1600% (wow!) – so higher taxes for the next 50 years are baked in.

      To be fair to Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens – they donā€™t pretend like the Tories. They all want much higher taxes for ordinary people.

  23. a-tracy
    April 12, 2023

    The IMF is said to be showing growth from the end of 2024 onwards because a change of government has been decided, with a more compliant Starmer who changes foot every six months, if he isn’t on his knees already, will concede to all EU requirements.

    This culling of the SNP is delicious to watch, political shenanigans at its best, Nicola’s on top of the world, oh no, shes resigned. She’s got to go to allow the Labour party back into Scotland so they don’t get accused of the SNP tail wagging the RUK dog. It’ll still happen electing Labour puts the Scots in power deciding to take more from the pot.

  24. Keith from Leeds
    April 12, 2023

    An article in the Mail today suggests taxpayers should strike for a 35% tax reduction. What an excellent idea if only we could do it. If the conservatives are not the low-tax small government party, which they most definitely aren’t, then what reason is there to vote for them? I never thought I would have to ask the question, what are the conservative party/government values?

  25. Ian B
    April 12, 2023

    Yes, and are the IMF always correct? The UK according to them will also be at the bottom of the G7 growth pile, with this Conservative Government that is probably correct.

    In the meantime Rishi is out after another sound-bite headline while picking up his next orders from Joe on the further integration of NI in the EU. Not content with just that an ardent anti Brexiteer has been appointed to the Monetary Policy Committee to help set our interest rates. Now the BoE with the help of Sunak & Hunt is primarily made up of those that want the UK to rejoin the EU ahead of improving the UK economy, they now have extra tools to affect that outcome.

  26. glen cullen
    April 12, 2023

    The IMF is no longer acting as a world lender to emerging countries and more like the world Office of Budget Responsibility ā€¦.its mission since its inception hasnā€™t changed but its actions and projection has !

  27. ChrisS
    April 12, 2023

    Our personal income from our business has fallen by Ā£3,500 a month thanks to interest rate rises. It is still profitable, but only just. The next interest rate rise will put us in the red.
    We had fixed rate financing which expired a few months ago, but there would have been large penalties had we tried to refinance before they expired.
    Current deals are simply not good enough, and would lock us into rates that are far too high.
    We have to wait until rates start falling and hope that better deals become available.

    As a result, while we are fortunate enough to have adequate resources behind us, like millions of business owners, we have cut back on discretionary expenditure. Sunak, Hunt, and Bailey have no idea of the damage they are doing. Nigel Lawson would never have allowed this to happen.

    1. Lynn Atkinson
      April 12, 2023

      Chris most of the businesses I am acquainted with now have used their ā€˜cushionā€™ and the next wave will take them away. These are responsible people, some with big ā€˜small businessesā€™ ranging from a string of music shops to golf courses. I canā€™t even speak of the hotels and restaurants.
      So many stuck with huge staffing costs. They will have to go bankrupt – and as they had not ā€˜preparedā€™ for that eventuality – many will actually lose their assets etc.
      This is an economic Ukraine war. We are being urged, by the governing class, to launch a spring offensive with no areas or ammunition – in our case, money.
      I agree that we need at least a 35% tax drop – the equivalent of a salary increase.

    2. Mark B
      April 13, 2023

      ChrisS

      They do not want SME’s only large corporate. They pay better Director and Consultancy fees IYKWIM šŸ˜‰

  28. rose
    April 12, 2023

    A publicly funded BBC implies the public support it by voluntary subscription. In fact, the Government enforces a flat tax on televisions and other receiving devices through the criminal law to pay for the BBC. Musk was right first time.

  29. Paffett
    April 12, 2023

    Perhaps the Bank of England Governor should be considering his position.

  30. Original Richard
    April 12, 2023

    ā€œThe IMF thinks all the western advanced economies will slow down a lot this year.ā€

    And every year, or otherwise how will it be possible to execute the UNā€™s instructions for the ā€œwestern advanced economiesā€ to achieve the UNā€™s goal of Net Zero by 2040?

    BTW, the Net Zero by 2040 only applies to the ā€œwestern advanced economiesā€ as ā€œclimate actionā€ is only number 13 on the UNā€™s list of ā€œSustainable Development Goalsā€ for the rest of the world.

  31. Keith Jones
    April 12, 2023

    These things you say are true so what is the agenda of The Treasury and The Bank of England? These people cannot be incompetent but if they are why are they not being held to account? Members of the Monetary Policy Committee ought to be holding their heads down in shame, none have resigned. The media should be howling from the roof tops. The Bank of England mission to hold inflation to 2% has failed, yet no complaints arise not even when they successfully blame Truss and Kwarteng are they held to account.
    So Sir John you ask “why”. There seems to be so many powerful people involved with whatever the “other” agenda is that they can do as they wish with impunity. Your “impossible mission” is to find out who these people are and what their agenda is before they assassinate you.

  32. Berkshire Alan
    April 12, 2023

    Thanks for your summery John, which suggests many of our problems are self inflicted because we keep moving the goalposts.
    How can any family, business or even Government plan their finances, when the rules are forever changing, and the very cost of the essentials of life, heat, light, power are completely out of control.
    Add to the above a crumbling infrastructure, health service, education, benefit and so called social care system and we are drifting backwards at quite a fast rate now, and all accelerated by the belief and cost of net Zero.
    Should I really care about what the IMF says or thinks, because I can do nothing about it.
    All I can do is vote another load of clowns into power !
    I so wish you were Chancellor, but then I may as well wish I would win the lottery, such are the odds.

    1. Fedupsouthener
      April 12, 2023

      Berkshire Alan. Net zero is the root of ALL our problems. Its destroying every part of everyone’s life. Its self destruction at its worse and we all know who’s to blame. When will the public wake up and realise that we need a new party in and not the usual rabble? Our very existence as a nation is at risk now. Something has to change. What a terrible end John to what has been a successful career for you.

  33. Bert Young
    April 12, 2023

    Playing lacky to outside bodies has got us nowhere . We seem to be without initiative to get us out of the mess we are in .Will just keeping our fingers crossed be a solution or should we kick the leadership out ?.

  34. a-tracy
    April 12, 2023

    “Brexit critic who attacked Tory ā€˜mismanagementā€™ to set rates at Bank of England. An economist who has criticised Conservative fiscal policy and warned of the negative impacts of Brexit is to join the Bank of England’s rate-setting panel.” The Telegraph

    Hired by Hunt, doesn’t this tell us everything we need to know about your new government top table, selected by…well, not the members, that is for sure. You’ll only retain any councillors because small c conservatives do try to vote for local candidates at local elections to try to save their local area from poor choices.

  35. Donna
    April 12, 2023

    Over a thousand criminal migrants ferried into the land of “free everything” in the past week.

    So much for “stopping the boats.” I wonder when Sunak will bung Macron another Ā£half a billion to NOT police the French borders?

    1. rose
      April 12, 2023

      They don’t even have to police the borders: all they need to do is enforce their own law on putting to sea in unworthy vessels.

      1. Nottingham Lad Himself
        April 12, 2023

        So in what jurisdiction would the UK enforce the law as to the putting to sea of people from the shores of France, in French waters, under any circumstances?

        You brexiters really don’t think through anything at all, do you?

        1. Lynn Atkinson
          April 12, 2023

          International law and the Law of the Sea.
          You Remainers seem to think there was no law before the foul EU set itself up to impose laws on others. It canā€™t even get its accountants to sign off its books – and has not done so for decades! Lawless, reckless idiot bunch of women ā€¦

    2. Fedupsouthener
      April 12, 2023

      Donna. Farage reporting that the French authorities wanted one of our ferries to make a dangerous manoeuvre so that 2 dinghies could be picked up and brought to England while still in French waters. We are now paying millions more to Macron for the delivery of these illegal invaders. So much for our friends in the EU NLH.

  36. a-tracy
    April 12, 2023

    What % of the UK economy is private, public, social healthcare, the whole kit and caboodle?

    What % of the UK economy was it in the year the NHS was created?

    What % of the UK economy was it in 2010? In 2010 the national minimum wage per hour worked all shifts day and night and weekends was Ā£5.93 per hour from age 21+. In 2016 April the National Living Wage was introduced for workers 25+ Ā£7.20, the NMW in comparison from 21 to 24 years of age was Ā£6.70. As we are hearing from Junior Doctors (who are considered Juniors for ten years or more after five years university training) differentials are everything.

    If the NLW is now Ā£10.50 we are told that a FY1 gets Ā£14 Mon-Fri day hours (they don’t say what it is out of hours and weekends). So 2010 Ā£5.93 to 2023 Ā£10.50. What has the FY1 Junior Doctors hourly wage gone up by from 2010 to 2023? They say it’s gone down in inflation terms but is there a direct comparison available? They’ve been comparing themselves with Junior doctors from 30 years ago but don’t discuss the pay basic is for many hours less a max of 48 on average due to the WTD.

    All of this is going to seriously affect our economy this year has it been pencilled in to the government’s forecasts let alone the IMFs forecasts?

  37. Derek
    April 12, 2023

    Seems to me that the BoE has been acting just like Mrs Thatcher’s well defined socialists. IE Those that will practice socialism because it works well, ‘until they run out of other people’s money’. Our National debt is already at a scary level for future generations to pay back.
    Public money funding is the root cause of many balance sheet problems across the public sector. None of their money is their own, it always comes from the obedient, ever enduring taxpayers.
    Where and when will the ‘buck’, stop?

  38. Mike Wilson
    April 12, 2023

    A publicly funded BBC implies the public support it by voluntary subscription.

    I donā€™t support it. I pray no idiot politician comes up with the idea of doing away with the license and adding the BBCā€™s cost to council tax.

    1. Nottingham Lad Himself
      April 12, 2023

      I’m sure that you don’t.

      The DG and Chair aren’t Conservative enough for you, are they?

  39. Mike Wilson
    April 12, 2023

    Labourā€™s promise to freeze council tax is a vote winner. Iā€™ll forget they doubled council tax between 1997 and 2010 if they freeze it for a while. Itā€™s high time councils cut the waste.

  40. rose
    April 12, 2023

    What a sickening sight in Belfast today: the Usurper has rushed to give away Northern Ireland to the EU with control of the Mainland as well, just to suck up to another Usurper and make his day in Belfast. Actually, less than a day, and no apparent notice or thanks given in return.

  41. Pauline Baxter
    April 12, 2023

    As I have said before, Sir John talks much common sense about economic policy and tax policy.
    He is particularly clearly correct in reminding us that the UK has just increased Corporation Tax when Southern Ireland clearly demonstrates that the much lower rate encourages investment and thus increases tax revenue.

    The problem remains however:-
    No one in power takes any notice of what he says.
    Also of course Starmer’s lot would be even worse.

  42. a-tracy
    April 13, 2023

    Today we are told our economy slowed considerably in February because of all your public sector strikes.

    A good point was made on student loans interest “The BMA told FactCheck that it has chosen to use RPI because it tracks the costs doctors will experience in the real economy, such as housing costs, and because the government also uses RPI when charging junior doctors interest on student loans.”
    Obviously student loans don’t only affect English doctors they affect all of the near 50% of students encouraged into our university system.

    Ben Zaranko of the IFS told FactCheck: ā€œRPI is widely acknowledged to be a flawed measure of inflation ā€“ the ONS ask people not to use it for this reason. Itā€™s no longer a national statistic and so is not our preferred measure of inflation ā€“ using an alternative like CPIH or CPI gives a smaller number than that used by the BMA.ā€

    So why is the student loan using a ‘flawed measure’ John and why aren’t our English MPs challenging this. It seems only doctors can collectively improve their lot by threatening our lives.

    Fact Check says “using the ONS and IFSā€™s preferred measure, it looks like junior doctorsā€™ pay in England has fallen by between 11 and 16 per cent on average since 2010.” https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-how-much-has-junior-doctors-pay-fallen-and-what-pay-rise-do-they-want

    Well what other compensation were they given that is not being taken into account, employer pension contributions have hypothetically risen from 14% to 21%! How many less contracted hours is their basic, it is now 40 isn’t it? Were other times of enhanced pay increased or not?

    IT IS ALL ABOUT THE DIFFERENTIALS, I have been saying this for months, if you push the NLW up to Ā£11, what does a FY1 doctor want after five years of extra education? You are going to have to cut all the unnecessary extras like diversity managers etc. and just tell people to get on with the caring roles and if they’re not nice to each other or not hiring in a diverse way relating to the area’s demographics then discipline and eventually sack them.

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