The Bank gets inflation wrong

Many people believe the Bank of England is independent. They accept it has a main task to keep inflation Ā down to 2%. The Treasury tells us curbing inflation is the Bankā€™s job. So why donā€™t all these people criticise the Bank for hopelessly wrong forecasts, telling Ā us in 2021 inflation would stay around 2% in 2022-3? Ā Why do they not complain that inflation soared to 11%, more than five times target and is still in double figures? Why do they not demand a big rethink, or management change? Why are senior Bank officials paid so much more than most other public servants and the PM when they cannot get anywhere near their main task?

Inflation is too much money chasing too few goods. The Bank was responsible for creating and allowing far too extra money and credit in 2020-2021. Ā Why didn’t they see that would be inflationary? Why did they blame Putin and the energy rises for the inflation when it was already 5.5% or 2.75 times target before the war? How do they explain low inflation in Japan and Switzerland, big importers of energy?

The truth is their models ignore money and credit, come up with bad forecasts and encourage them to make bad decisions. Change
is urgently needed as they are now poised to make new mistakes which give us a needlessly big slowdown after the avoidable inflation.

94 Comments

  1. Mark B
    April 21, 2023

    Good morning.

    The slow down is deliberate so they can induce a mini recession and cut demand and thereby reduce inflation. Reducing inflation will allow them the scope to not raise interest rates and cause a house price crash. The government is addicted to the Housing Tax (Stamp Duty) and would see a large fall in its income, forcing it to borrow more because they cannot make cuts to the State and its spending.

    Anyway, I for one do not believe the official figures as they do not take into account bills such as Council Tax into account. All of which have been, on average, above inflation.

    1. Peter Wood
      April 21, 2023

      The BoE knows it’s between a ‘rock and…..’ The Fed is going to do a couple more increases, the US economy remains near full employment, so unless we increase interest rates, Ā£ will drop lots and inflation will be imported via a weak Ā£.

      Higher interest rates means we are going to get a property slump, people who have borrowed too much will go bankrupt and we’re going to suffer a steep recession. All because, as Sir J. says, we didn’t manage money supply and cost of borrowing prudently, together with all the other structural problems of not growing and producing enough energy at home.

      1. Berkshire Alan
        April 21, 2023

        Peter I fear you may be correct, many businesses now on a knife edge having borrowed to get through covid, and with many households fixed rate mortgages now unwinding with every month that passes, more and more will find themselves in financial trouble.
        Problem is Government love inflation as it shrinks its own debt (although not the interest payments) raises the VAT and Stamp duty tax take.
        10% inflation means 10% more in VAT where it is charged.
        Luverly Jubbly!

      2. Atlas
        April 21, 2023

        Agreed Peter.

        It seems that the early nineteenth century economist David Ricardo was correct to worry about the effects of ‘paper money’.

        1. Peter Wood
          April 21, 2023

          Quite, mismanagement of Fiat or ‘paper money’ seems to be the cocaine to western governments, once you start printing, it’s difficult to stop. Where were the adults to say ‘you mustn’t do that’. We apparently have an history scholar running the BoE, did he not study the Weimar Republic, Venezuela or other more recent examples. As previously noted, the PCP – Not Fit for Purpose.

    2. PeteB
      April 21, 2023

      Mark,
      There is another ‘advantage’ of inflation that our host skims over. Government debt is generally quoted as a percentage of GDP. 10% inflation with a corresponding rise in nominal GDP leaves Government borrowing 10% lower (approx. and assuming a balanced budget).

      The Western economies all want to inflate away these national debts. Savers will pay but not be fully aware of this.

      1. Ian+wragg
        April 21, 2023

        Fishy says tax cuts cause inflation. That’s a real socialist view of things.
        You might as well just give us spending money and impose price controls then that should solve the problem.
        Certainly increasing corporation tax to 25% is a clever move to destroy investment and taxing oil and gas companies 75% gives them every incentive to pack up and move on
        Rid us of this madness.

        1. Gabe
          April 21, 2023

          +1

      2. Ralph Corderoy
        April 21, 2023

        PeteB’s on the right track: all governments with national debts which have grown far too large need to inflate them away.

        A country can either default on its debt or print money to fund it.ā€‚Given the reputation damage, they avoid defaulting if they can print.ā€‚Also defaulting is a problem as these days so much of the debt is itself used as collateral: the knock-on effects are large and unpredictable.ā€‚So print it is.

        The USA and UK, the only two I know something about, are going to deliberately stoke high inflation to make the debt:GDP ratio more healthy.ā€‚This will take the rest of the decade.ā€‚They will aim to run inflation as high as possible without the peasants revolting.ā€‚Double-digit price inflation won’t be unusual, especially if CPI is ignored and real price inflation used.

        Lastly, I recently learned that Israel had inflation of 450% in 1984.ā€‚This surprised me as it’s not some basket-case South American country led by a dictator.ā€‚The projection for inflation was 1000%.ā€‚It came after banks pretended there was still demand for their shares by buying them themselves. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_Israel_Economic_Stabilization_Plan

    3. turboterrier
      April 21, 2023

      Mark B
      Does it build in any figures for the horrendous waste of our money I ask myself across all sectors of government?
      If it was stopped what impact would that have on addressing the problem?

  2. turboterrier
    April 21, 2023

    Your last paragraph just abouts sums up not just the BOE problems but about every sector of life as we know it within the UK.
    Too much emphasis is placed on models and computer predictions and the art of hands on research and applied common sense seems to have been thrown out of the window.
    People in organisations do not talk to one another anymore it is all done by computer apps. That look in the eye, the tone of the voice and the body language old fashioned maybe but priceless.

    1. Michelle
      April 21, 2023

      How very true. If data entered into the computer is flawed then surely it follows its predictions will be flawed also.
      As you rightly say common sense has been thrown out of the window.
      It is at the root of so many of our problems and without it I don’t see how they can be corrected.

      1. George Brooks.
        April 21, 2023

        You and Turbo’ are both right and it is all due to the vast majority of MPs being too young and/or with little or no experience of running anything. We need a good number of successful industrialists and bankers like our host to take Bailey and the Treasury to task and get this government back on track

    2. Anselm
      April 21, 2023

      You make a very important point. I devoted my life to teaching. I wanted to become a really good teacher. Yes, I made some terrible mistakes when I started off, then few and fewer. After retirement, along with other retired teachers, I started off a scheme to teach the immigrants English. Teaching is what I was good at, what I enjoyed, what I did best.
      I did it to learn a skill. I did not do it to please a computer or a faceless “they”.
      Doctors, nurses, business people, bin men, builders, architects, consultants, vets, all take pride in their jobs. We – they – do not like interference from people who are not motivated and who never visit them to see how they are doing, and who obviously do not care. They deal in stats and are far too important for that.

  3. Donna
    April 21, 2023

    The B of E isn’t truly independent and its primary role isn’t to keep inflation at 2% …… otherwise, when Johnson, Handcock, Gove and Sunak decided to destroy the economy by closing down half of the private sector and most of the public sector and print money to cover the costs, the Bank would have said NO.

    No-one is ever held to account in the Public Sector. No-one is sacked for incompetence. No sanctions are ever levied.

    The B of E and the British Government are jointly responsible for the economic destruction and resulting inflation – and that is why no-one is being held to account at the Bank – because they know far too much and wouldn’t go quietly.

    Sunak has pledged to halve inflation by the end of the year. That is going to require a severe squeeze, so a severe squeeze is precisely what we’ll get ….. followed by an artificially created boomlet so he can claim “the tough medicine worked and things are looking up” in 2024 (election year).

    1. PeteB
      April 21, 2023

      Spot on.

    2. Bloke
      April 21, 2023

      Who should act when the Bank of England fails?

      All of these:
      The PM & Chancellor who are most at fault.
      The Cabinet should hold the PM & Chancellor to account.
      Conservative MPs should hold the PM, Chancellor, Cabinet and Ministers to account.
      Opposition MPs should hold the PM, Chancellor, Cabinet, Ministers and all other Conservative MPs to account.
      Voters who oppose the Govt should hold their Labour, SNP, LibDem and other hangers-on to account.

      The Conservative electorate recognise SJRā€™s valuable work but canā€™t count on most of the present daft bunch doing anything useful.
      Those who want to reform the Bank of England need to vote for Reform.

    3. Nottingham+Lad+Himself
      April 21, 2023

      So when has anyone in the private sector ever been prosecuted for the desecration of our rivers and seas with billions of litres of raw sewage? How many bankers for their recklessness?

      The rich and highly paid almost always escape, in whichever sector. Corporate and other UK law are designed absolutely to achieve this.

    4. graham1946
      April 21, 2023

      Inflation will fall once the rip offs are out of the way – Sunak won’t have to do anything, though he will take credit for it, but not for starting it in the first place. Of course they will crow about inflation falling, but whatever the figure it will be in addition to the inflation we have already suffered, as those increases are now baked in, prices won’t come down but they’ll forget about that.

      1. Gabe
        April 21, 2023

        +1

  4. turboterrier
    April 21, 2023

    OT
    Minister Cleverly is not being very clever over his comments on the ECHR.
    He is totally out of touch with the vast numbers of the electorate that actually fear the end result of these thousands of dingy invaders.
    Another person in authority just like the Bof E that should be walking and talking the talkand as one old manager used to say ” smelling the fear”
    Realising that failure to stop the invaders will cost him and his party the next election. His views are just like everybody else’s just that his take or perception on the situation.
    The thousands in the same position against his perception with theirs have more ownership of the solution as they are the critical mass in the argument.

    1. Bloke
      April 21, 2023

      turboterrier:
      The UK is our home. If 10 people entered your home illegally, that would be an invasion of your privacy and much more.
      So, Invasion is an accurate description and not pejorative.
      However ā€˜Dingy Invadersā€™ is!
      Maybe you meant ā€˜dinghyā€™ rather than gloomy and drab.
      But your point is clear.
      Most of those invaders are brightly-dressed in happiness at reaching Utopia, free to proceed in the red at othersā€™ expense.

    2. a-tracy
      April 21, 2023

      Really turbo, do you honestly believe that electing Labour who just want to let everyone in, one of the great things about GB News is unlike the people that diss it and don’t watch it, I do watch it after work and I have never heard so many lefties opinion in my life. Tony Blairs ex-advisor thinks we should just let anyone who wants to come in and remove all barriers, a labour PR guy who thinks most people want to open up more opportunities for everyone to apply to come here irrelevant to their skill level or ability to keep themselves whilst they get established.

      1. Fedupsouthener
        April 21, 2023

        A-Tracy. I don’t see where Turbo has said he would vote Labour in. Turbo has often said if Conservatives can’t deliver conservative policies then he would vote Reform. Sensible man.

        1. a-tracy
          April 21, 2023

          Theyā€™re not standing in my area, they will just put labour into power, this is why the higher ups have decided to take the SNP out of the picture.

      2. turboterrier
        April 21, 2023

        a-tracy
        I also try to watch GBNews but have to restrain myself from doing serious damage to the TV when these lefties start pontificating about their system.
        I did say in a reply yesterday that Labour never when slagging off the government even try to be constructive.
        They maybe trying to keep their powder dry but my perception is they have three fifths of naff all to make things different.
        From today’s news it would seem we are now totally under the yoke of the civil servants as and when the mood takes them to cause mayhem.

        1. a-tracy
          April 21, 2023

          Agreed there was one woman who used to come on Dewberry that as soon as I saw her on the panel I switched off, Michelle has really improved since she first started, her panel is always balanced left/right and it reminds me why Iā€™m not socialist.
          I agree with you. Labour MPs are often hypocritical, and two-faced their shadow deputy PM gets away with bullying Tory MPs and voters all the time (if you use the new definitions of bullying). If we donā€™t start fighting these leftie agitators at their own game we are going to get over-run with citizens assemblies deciding to put us all in 15 minute lockdown areas, ok if you live in Belgravia or Chelsea but in my area that means no cinema, no hospital, no theatre, no concerts, other than the pubs no entertaining, one train per hour that you canā€™t afford to take because of parking and ticket charges, delays and awful trains.
          If I were Braverman I would wear a police type go-pro camera on my person every day at work. I would ask for all tasks through a small team of senior public managers and if they failed to get it done I would discipline them properly, I would also ask these senior Managers have any of you got any saved up personal complaints youā€™d like me to address in writing āœļø.
          Rishi is turning out just how I predicted he would, I asked my MP to think twice before voting for him.

    3. Gabe
      April 21, 2023

      Cleverly is clearly satirically named rather like the dire Lord Adonis.

  5. DOM
    April 21, 2023

    CBI stitch up
    Raab stitch up
    Truss stitch up

    And John’s still obsessing about Bailey

    Is it not amazing that sports and institutons are slowly being taken over by progressives using Stalinist style allegations without evidence and some Tory MPs sit in silence without a murmur

    I see the TUC, the unions, Labour etc are never targeted, infiltrated and then neutered

    1. a-tracy
      April 21, 2023

      I agree it is a proper civil service stitch up, they pursued any minister who wanted them to change their work practices, speed up and be more accurate and I hope that Raab does pursue the improprieties that came to light during this inquiry. If they include any senior civil servants, they also fall on their swords and move into a lower role.

      When the public demand that ministers get the best out of senior civil servants and expect more from the home office in respect to processing asylum applications etc. the minister then gets accused of bullying, unless they are Labour ministers I presume, who will get the Biden treatment once elected no matter how rubbish they are.

      This morning’s announcement has left a very sour taste. There are serious senior management failings in this department, if complaints were made to senior managers then why wasn’t this brought to Raab’s attention immediately and training in staff relations offered to the minister if it was felt he was needlessly abrasive? Failing asylum processing, taking too long over work. I wonder if he’ll appoint some wishy-washy liberal to the role or the waste of space May.

    2. Fedupsouthener
      April 21, 2023

      After reading Raabs article and resignation letter I can only concur it has been a disgusting stitch up. Sunak should never have accepted it.

      1. a-tracy
        April 21, 2023

        Raab said, if one accusation is upheld he would resign, he was that confident in himself. Sunak sealed his fate when he allowed four year old accusations to even be presented. I am disgusted no rules of employment law have been followed. I want to know if these civil servants in his department have annual appraisals, what were their managers doing if they knew they had wobbles about a tough new boss, if they didnā€™t discuss any issues in their annual appraisals then why have they been allowed to raise them now as an employer youā€™re not allowed to bring up old undiscussed issues, if you donā€™t dot every i and cross every t you would be sued. News journalists calling Raab Psycho, and a massive arse (that is bullying) he should sue them for hurt feelings! Give them a taste of their own medicine.

      2. Gabe
        April 21, 2023

        +1

  6. Javelin
    April 21, 2023

    Inflation was caused by the hysterical over reaction to covid of printing money. Rishi Sunak was the main agent. The BofE is simply dealing with the disaster Rishi Sunak created. QED.

    1. a-tracy
      April 21, 2023

      Javelin, could you explain how this is the ‘main agent’ in simple words, please?

      I can see how inflation takes off in business pricing, especially employee-heavy workplaces; energy costs rise, payroll costs and pay differentials rise – 10% this year, and 6.6% in 2022 (10% 21-22). Is this now meeting the European directive standards they’ve set for minimum wages across the EU of 60% of the median wage?

    2. Gabe
      April 21, 2023

      +1

  7. Anselm
    April 21, 2023

    The BBC News at 6 to which my wife and I listen every day is shrill about the cost of living. People understand their “shopping basket” and it makes an easy quarter of an hour for the broadcaster to get people moaning. The effect is one of incompetence in the government. The next announcement, of course, is the strikes. We have not had so much about nurses going to food banks recently. (Well done the Prime Minister by the way for sitting it all out calmly.)
    On top of all this is the wicked Dominic Raab. He has been bullying people and even made one civil servant cry! I mean, honestly. Poor little man. Sent home crying! (What is the truth behind this? I genuinely would like to know.) Who blew the whistle? Why?
    Add in Boris being sacked over a redacted picture with all the civil servants’ faces blurred out and I am beginning to see conspiracy theories! Who took the picture? Why?
    All this, of course fits in with the inflation – and also a very Labour-Lib Dem bias too.
    The more I see of this reformed government, the more I like it.

    1. agricola
      April 21, 2023

      Anselm,
      I would put it more directly. This government is at war. On one front with the civil service who resent losing the power they had when we were part of the EU. The second front is a war on the people. Their inability or reluctance to do the things that people want them to do. I will not boor you with the list. The BBC are just frustrated Guardianistas whose hatred of anything right of centre is palpable. The irony is that the government is mostly left of centre and after the Truss coupe, illigitimate.

      1. R.Grange
        April 21, 2023

        Your two-front war idea sums it up very well, Agricola. This government has utterly lost touch with the reasons people voted for it. It wouldn’t act all that differently if it were remote controlled. Perhaps that’s because it is.

      2. Ashley
        April 21, 2023

        +1

    2. rose
      April 21, 2023

      I would guess the main motive for getting Raab out of the Cabinet is to scotch the Bill of Rights and any other bill associated with him. Secondly, to get rid of another Brexiteer and small government man. Thirdly to get rid of a Minister who tries to make civil servants work.

    3. a-tracy
      April 21, 2023

      If they had a spine, this government would fight all of these entries.

      Everyone I know is shopping around; several have changed supermarkets and brands of products. People aren’t such passive buyers if one product they usually buy goes up 80%, they change the brand or stop buying it. I’m spending less now; we had a new Aldi open, and Waitrose has fabulous deals on fresh fruit and vegetables, salads etc! I do farm shops and look out for deals on toilet rolls, clothes washing pods, etc. which regularly come around in places like Wilko. If you feel your bill has gone up by 20%, keep the receipts for two weeks, and highlight all necessary items and all frippery, then check out the prices online, save the receipts and check one receipt again next month. I have done this for colleagues.

  8. The Prangwizard
    April 21, 2023

    Change is needed urgently. The first change is that of the people there and elsewhere, and not just one person. We need a return to true competition.

    But effective action will not take place beacause of embedded establisement thinking and friendship. And not enough people dare demand change.

    The decline of the country will continue with wealth draining away.

  9. Sakara Gold
    April 21, 2023

    Currently inflation is primarily affecting the food and energy sectors. Today we learn that the fuel retailers are still failing to pass on the recent fall in diesel prices at the pumps; UK drivers are being ripped off 27-29p per litre. Why isn’t the Treasury speaking out about this? Because they are raking in a windfall of Ā£billlions in extra tax and VAT. Inflation at 10% is steaing the nations’s savings, as you can only get ~4% in interest

    The current high inflation in the UK is down to the co-ordinated rise in fossil fuel products imposed in 2020-2021, well before Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Those wishing to preserve the value of their savings can buy gold/silver bullion

    1. a-tracy
      April 21, 2023

      SK I disagree that it is affecting food, where do you shop? You can shop around, Iā€™m paying less now for food by starting to shop around and change the brands, supermarkets, produce and the more you shop online the more you can discover, try it.

      I agree about fuel and energy. This seems to be all the big Green agenda.

  10. Sea_Warrior
    April 21, 2023

    Why does the Bank – like many other central banks – think that families who have reduced their expenditures because of runaway inflation think that those families need a further kick, in the form of increased mortgage payments?
    P.S. I gather that part of the labour crisis in this country, which affects inflation, is down to some half a million workers leaving the workforce due to ‘illness’. That figure seems high. Is it too much to hope that there’s a minister thinking the same thing? I’m sticking to my Conservative view that there’s too much ‘welfare’ provision in this country and too much taxation (to pay for it).

  11. Richard1
    April 21, 2023

    The problem is groupthink. Same as covid lockdowns. Same as net zero. Same as ERM, the bank bailouts, devolution, the sale of the gold, prices and incomes, etc etc. all the rubbish policies pursued over more than 30 years have had the loud support of the establishment of the day – meaning not dukes, earls and generals etc but those who dominate the airwaves. Bien pensant ā€˜expertsā€™ lecturing in a condescending tone, and self-righteous politicians loving the opportunities for statist activism.

    The Bank of England is no different. I donā€™t know anything about the lady most recently appointed to the MPC, she may be excellently qualified. But from the description given is does not sound as though she will be offering opinions any different from those which have got us where we are.

    Where we have quangos with real power, such as the BoE, there needs to be a requirement for a red team-blue team exercise – rigorous and regular (and preferably public) challenge to received wisdom and to policy. If weā€™d had that in the lockdowns it would have been possible to prevent some at least of the massive damage.

  12. Ian+B
    April 21, 2023

    ā€˜The Bank gets inflation wrongā€™ Thereā€™s a surprise, it has in recent times always failed to do its job.
    The Ego of its main team is more concerned at being a World player than doing its duty to the UK. The FED says this is needed, they then jump, the EU says we need to coordinate this, and they join in. The UK says it needs inflation under control the BoE says we have a more important World role we are busy on, we will get back to you.
    Then of course why should any one at the BoE be concerned, the UK Conservative Government isnā€™t concerned either ā€“ there is always extra Tax that can be collected to cover the BoEā€™s loses. The treasury tells this Conservative Government to keeps its nose out of how the run the Country and this Conservative Government says ā€˜Oh Sorry Sir we forgotā€™.
    As with all the UKā€™s ills this Conservative Government was elected and is paid to manage the only response from this Conservative Governments is more plans, more speeches, more deflection, while at all times maintaining out and out ā€˜refusalā€™ to manage.

  13. formula57
    April 21, 2023

    As we can see plainly enough those who categorize the Bank as independent do so as a means of justifying their neglect of any duty to scrutinize, question and challenge its actions.

    1. Ian+B
      April 21, 2023

      @formula57 +1 In the meantime the Conservative Government keeps bailing them out with taxpayer money while refusing to ask them to account for their failures. Or in other words this non-Conservative Government is refusing to do the job they were elected to and get paid for!

  14. Narrow Shoulders
    April 21, 2023

    I don’t think a complaint about their wages is a good criticism Sir John. These people are drawn from the best paid workers in the land and the world so good wages are needed to tempt them. A similar argument is made for the salary you receive is it not?

    Your criticism should be (as everywhere in the public sector) where is the sanction and penalty for error? Where is the demonstration of good performance management to drive correct outcomes. The higher the wage the greater the responsibility and sanctions for under performance should be swift and punitive. This should also apply to the private sector where too many under performers receive payoffs and pop up elsewhere to do their damage again. It does seem that once the LInkedIn profile is established there are jobs aplenty.

    Reply My public sector MP salary is the same as all MPs and rightly below the PM ā€˜s pay

  15. George Sheard
    April 21, 2023

    The trouble with government and their
    Departments it’s us and them and the voters ( us ) will always be made to pay for
    (Them ) who are making money and prospering from the high interest rates. You never hear MP’S are struggling, So if the bank are getting it wrong why aren’t
    Our MP’S doing something to change it?
    Because they are part of the ( them ) group

  16. agricola
    April 21, 2023

    Here we go again. The BoE either predicts badly or reacts too slowly and at times excessively. They are seemingly always playing catchup and very rarely setting the agenda. Liz Truss tried the novel approach of setting the agenda but got cancelled for tryjng to control the game. As a general rule it is better to set the agenda and then strive to achieve it. The BoE are more pathologist than entrepreneur.

  17. Stred
    April 21, 2023

    One of the reasons for the current inflation is lack of compensation following the retirement of the private sector workforce and smaller businesses being closed following lockdown and the tax raids such as IR35.
    My Internet and phone provider raised the charge to Ā£53 pcm and then offered to reduce it to Ā£23 with Ā£100 compensation when I found another deal. They are still trying to charge me the higher price and delayed closing the account.
    My wife decided to redecorate the external of her house. The English firm wanted Ā£5600 but the other 2 were from Eastern Europe and their bids were Ā£3500 and Ā£2500. They took 3 man days to finish and did a good job. Material were less than Ā£100. That’s Ā£800 a day for Labour. It was Ā£80 not long ago. No wonder they come over in millions. We must be Treasure Island.
    The paint has also gone up from Ā£6 for a can of primer to Ā£36. The cheapest masonry paint I found was Ā£36 with trade card. The painter got it for Ā£27 with his discount. The same large chain shop was selling to the public for Ā£46. I think they have been told to make up for lockdown losses.

    1. Stred
      April 21, 2023

      COMPETITION not compensation. Flipping phone alteration.

  18. Stred
    April 21, 2023

    One of the reasons for the current inflation is lack of competition following the retirement of the private sector workforce and smaller businesses being closed following lockdown and the tax raids such as IR35.
    My Internet and phone provider raised the charge to Ā£53 pcm and then offered to reduce it to Ā£23 with Ā£100 compensation when I found another deal. They are still trying to charge me the higher price and delayed closing the account.
    My wife decided to redecorate the external of her house. The English firm wanted Ā£5600 but the other 2 were from Eastern Europe and their bids were Ā£3500 and Ā£2500. They took 3 man days to finish and did a good job. Material were less than Ā£100. That’s Ā£800 a day for Labour. It was Ā£80 not long ago. No wonder they come over in millions. We must be Treasure Island.
    The paint has also gone up from Ā£6 for a can of primer to Ā£36. The cheapest masonry paint I found was Ā£36 with trade card. The painter got it for Ā£27 with his discount. The same large chain shop was selling to the public for Ā£46. I think they have been told to make up for lockdown
    losses.
    Corrected

  19. Original Richard
    April 21, 2023

    ā€œWhy do they not demand a big rethink, or management change?ā€

    I have never heard of any civil servant or quango employee sacked for laziness, negligence, incompetence, malfeasance, corruption, misbehaviour, insubordination or treachery.

    It shows that our elected representatives in Parliament are not in control.

    1. Ian+B
      April 21, 2023

      @Original Richard – Perversely we do get to hear that when a Minister demands that the ā€˜Blobā€™ does what it is paid to do, the minister is then accused of bullying. The result is the ā€˜Blobā€™ with the support of the PM has those demanding results removed from office. And, the refusal of the Conservative Government to ā€˜manageā€™ carries on.

      1. Original Richard
        April 21, 2023

        Ian+B :

        Machiavelli advises a newly installed prince to remove all those who helped him attain his position to ensure there is no-one alive to whom he owes a debt.

  20. Des
    April 21, 2023

    If people believe the Bank of England is really trying to keep inflation down I have a seafront property in Manchester to sell them. Their job is to keep inflation high to continue the transfer of wealth to the rich and also to finance the grotesque overspending by government.

  21. glen cullen
    April 21, 2023

    The BoE will only ever be changed under a Reform Party ā€¦best get onboard

    1. Ashley
      April 21, 2023

      If reform win a single seat I will be surprised. But yes they have the right policies.

  22. Chickpea
    April 21, 2023

    The Bank of England is not fit for purpose. If employees in the private sector performed like this, they would be sacked. If they canā€™t do their jobs, get people in who can, simple.

    As for Raab, if people below him canā€™t perform, they shouldnā€™t be in their jobs, he has every right to tell them. Itā€™s clearly another witch hunt just like Boris. Theyā€™re one by one getting rid of Leavers, all the good guys.

  23. Original Richard
    April 21, 2023

    ā€œThe truth is their models ignore money and credit, come up with bad forecasts and encourage them to make bad decisions. Change is urgently needed as they are now poised to make new mistakes which give us a needlessly big slowdown after the avoidable inflation.ā€

    The reason, Sir John, that youā€™re not understanding the policies is because you havenā€™t grasped that the overriding policy is to reduce our CO2 emissions. This means cutting back on consumption by wealth reduction with higher taxation, more expensive and intermittent energy, more expensive and inferior electrified transport and heating devices, and adding restrictions where price alone is not sufficient to drive the necessary ā€œbehaviouralā€ changes.

    Once this is understood all policies become completely transparent.

  24. glen cullen
    April 21, 2023

    SirJ for Deputy Prime Minister ā€¦.you never know, itā€™s a possibility and would save the Tory government

    1. Ian+B
      April 21, 2023

      @glen cullen It will never happen, some with an interest in a successful UK would be harassed out of office by the ā€˜Blobā€™ with support of a weak and compliant PM

  25. Bert+Young
    April 21, 2023

    Management and direction at the BofE was flawed some time back so it’s no surprise the errors are still occuring . The country should not have to suffer for their mistakes and change must happen fast . The Government is ultimately responsible for the economy and has no choice but to step in and make new appointments ; this should be done with outside independent professionals who have a background in top level selection . I would be more than happy if Sir John played a significant role .

  26. Mickey+Taking
    April 21, 2023

    It will be interesting to hear just what Mr Raab was deemed guilty of!
    Raising voice, or rejecting quality of given work, possibly pointing out lack of activity or not doing as told.?
    Pity the staff, poor things not being used to blunt management?
    Sensitive souls.

    1. rose
      April 21, 2023

      Shouting, throwing, and swearing were all ruled out.

      1. Mickey Taking
        April 21, 2023

        Stern looks then? Pointing out who is the Boss?

        1. glen cullen
          April 21, 2023

          Boss, you canā€™t say boss, that implies a hierarchy, and that just wonā€™t do in this socialist woke, oil free world

    2. IanT
      April 22, 2023

      Mr Raab’s predicament reminded me of my old Drill Sergeant for some strange reason.
      He was a kindly man, in the habit of standing behind me and shouting his heart-felt appreciation of my two left feet into my adolescent squaddie’s ear. It was all done with my future well being in mind of course and the sure knowledge that I would eventually come to appreciate all the love and attention he’d given me.
      And eventually (many years later) I did…. šŸ™‚

  27. Barbara
    April 21, 2023

    I do encourage everyone to read the book ā€˜Escape from Model Land: How Mathematical Models Can Lead Us Astray and What We Can Do About Itā€™, by Erica Thompson.

    Erroneous bank computer modelling, bad covid computer modelling, climate alarmist computer modelling all pertain.

    1. Ashley
      April 21, 2023

      Modelling is just applying equations to data – the data can be wrong and the equations can be wrong. In the case of climate predictions they are almost bound to be wrong as we do not have most of the data and the equations are largely guesstimates at best.

  28. The Prangwizard
    April 21, 2023

    Congratulations Sir John on your support for your weak woke party leader.

    Anyone who wants to get something done is destroyed. The subversives are being allowed to take total control, Brexit is being destroyed by traitors but not enough people sre prepared to stand firm and take a risk to defend us.

    Weak, weak, weak.

    1. Ashley
      April 21, 2023

      Deluded, deluded, deluded too this on climate alarmism, the vast tax levels, the net harm vaccines, his money printing & currency devaluations, his war on the self employed, landlords, motorists, his failure to deal with economic migrants or the NHS, his bonkers energy policyā€¦

  29. Ian+B
    April 21, 2023

    Raising a Smile ā€“ from the Telegraph this lunch time
    Analysis: ‘The Prime Minister now looks flakier than a Mr Whippy’
    And the Conservative Party, you get to feel they donā€™t care they want to see their party in the Dustbin for a generation

  30. Iain Hunter
    April 21, 2023

    Inflation is too much money chasing too few goods and services. It has nothing to do with Putin and everything to do with one orchestrated ā€˜crisisā€™ after another. Whatā€™s next after Ukraine? Bird ā€˜flu? Or some sort of ā€˜climate emergencyā€™. The powers that be must think weā€™re stupid and canā€™t see through it all.

    1. Ashley
      April 21, 2023

      More to do with Suankā€™s vast currency debasement, the absurd over reaction to Covid, furlough, eat out to help out, the endless government waste, the covid loans, the net harm vaccines & net zero rather than Putinā€™s evil war or Covid.

  31. a-tracy
    April 21, 2023

    Suella best put on her stab vest! Sunak gave her a messy job, an impossible task, and accepted her being labelled racist and demeaned by our press.

    Kemi seems to have Gove watching her back, so she must have agreed to fall into line whilst he’s trying to redeem himself.

    I am really hoping Raab now has the time to assess whether he wants to remain in the cesspit your party is becoming.

    1. Ashley
      April 21, 2023

      +1

  32. MWB
    April 21, 2023

    I think it’s time that the senior civil servants, and officials at places such as the BoE, were dismissed when there is a change of government. Then, new people who will do the bidding of the new minsters, can be hired by the incoming government.

    1. glen cullen
      April 21, 2023

      Civil servants arenā€™t continuity government ā€¦they are the government

  33. Stephen+Reay
    April 21, 2023

    Mervyn king was right when is said the BoE should have put up the interest rate up higher and more quickly. He said the BoE had to show it was serious about bringing inflation down, they didn’t listen to him. The problem now for the BoE is that fishy Rishy has said that he will get inflation down to half of what it is. Bailey was stuffed when fishy said that, he will have to increase rates again and again to get to fishy’s inflation target.

    1. Ashley
      April 21, 2023

      +1

  34. Lindsay+McDougall
    April 21, 2023

    I’ll say it again: “Why hasn’t the Governor of the Bank of England been sacked?” Has the Conservative Party not got any sense of self preservation? Unless he is sacked, the public (the electorate) will blame the Government for the inflation. I shouldn’t have to remind readers that inflation was 5.5% and rising rapidly BEFORE the Ukraine war started. Nor that Japan, who import just as much energy as we do, have experienced only 2% inflation. Inflation is a monetary problem. The Ukraine war influenced which prices went up, not the total amount of inflation.

  35. agricola
    April 21, 2023

    Having watched the Raab/GBNews interview, following analysis of the KC’s report, my judgement is that political government has a very serious problem. As suspected, the civil service most certainly does, through it’s unions carry a fifth column of activists out to defeat those elements of government they do not like. It is a danger to any colour of political government so there is nowhere for complacency. I am also concerned that Sunak sees fit to set such a low bar in causes for ministerial resignations. The task now is, as Dominic Cummins highlighted, to institute a major reset within the civil service. Effectively they not only need to be returned to the box labelled service, but also should be subject to the normal rules of employment in the private sector.

  36. Fedupsouthener
    April 21, 2023

    Oliver Dowden!! Another Remainer in the cabinet. How fortunate. Not.

    1. glen cullen
      April 21, 2023

      ‘ā€¦but he respects the decision of the referendum’ …oh yeah

    2. Ashley
      April 21, 2023

      +1 a rather daft and incompetent one too.

  37. a-tracy
    April 21, 2023

    Iā€™ve heard three times this week lefties/greenies pushing citizens assemblies – enough to make me start thinking what on earth is this. We have citizens assemblies already they are local council elected representatives, county council representatives and MPs and Scotland and Wales have another level of citizens spokespeople. Who elects these new assemblies? Students, unions? You canā€™t get enough people to volunteer now for patient panels etc. the only people that can do it are retired people who already volunteer and have a lot of say in most other local functions. People need to start paying ā›”ļø attention.

    1. glen cullen
      April 21, 2023

      ā€¦and they’ll never put forward candidates for election or use the democratic system of the ballot box

    2. rose
      April 21, 2023

      Citizens’ Assemblies descend from the French Revolution. They are a left wing device for bypassing democracy. They select a small group then put them through a process of “information and education” until they come up with the verdict that has been pre-ordained.

      1. a-tracy
        April 22, 2023

        That is what I suspected Rose and if we elect Labour that is what weā€™ll get. A new socialist grouping to take over our lives and freedoms.

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