All Souls lecture – ‘The great western inflation should lead to changes at the Central Banks’

‘The great western inflation should lead to changes at the Central Banks’

Rt Hon Sir John Redwood will be giving a lecture on the great western inflation of the last two years. He will examine the role of the Central banks, explain how they could have avoided the general price rises, and ask how the Bank of Japan, the Swiss Central Bank and the People’s Bank of China kept inflation down. He will point out that contrary to common accounts the Fed and the Bank of England are not independent but work closely with Treasury officials and the wider government they serve. He will make recommendations for changes to the models and approach the three main western Central banks use. He will cover the question of how Quantitative easing and Quantitative tightening have added to the problems and blurred dividing lines between Central Bank and government financial and budget policies.

John Redwood has written and spoken on economic topics for many years. He warned against the destabilising effects of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism on the UK economy in the 1980s, warned about excessive credit and lending in the mid-2000s prior to the banking crash and argued against Quantitative easing extending into 2021 and 2022 when recovery was well set after recognising its need in 2020 to offset lockdowns.

Event time: 11:00 – 12:30
Venue: All Soul College, Old Library, Oxford, OX1 4AL

The event has been published on the University website: https://www.ox.ac.uk/event/great-western-inflation-should-lead-changes-central-banks

And also, on the College’s website: https://www.asc.ox.ac.uk/event/great-western-inflation-sir-john-redwood

Both links include a link to the registration form, which you can access directly by clicking here: https://forms.office.com/e/sWmVQEZdkV

74 Comments

  1. Javelin
    April 26, 2023

    So the conclusions to draw from this is, if you are a bond trader then the quality of education, health, pensions and benefits must fall over the long term for Government borrowing to be sustainable where you have tens of millions of migrants who do not contribute.

    If you are a bond trader and you see the news saying people are complaining about education, health, benefits and pensions falling in quality then you can go to bed and sleep soundly knowing the standard of living is falling toward sustainable levels.

    Reply
  2. Bloke
    April 26, 2023

    Central Banks need educating. SJR’s All Souls lecture signals quality leadership that bankers should learn from to improve their unworthy performance.

    Reply
    1. Cuibono
      April 26, 2023

      +many
      Oh I’m sure they couldn’t do that! Too busy with “saving the planet” and going on “diversity and inclusion” courses.
      They do however seem to advertise “talks” by the great and the good on a sort of ticker tape on their website so maybe….

      Reply
      1. Ian B
        April 26, 2023

        @Cuibono +1 – we are not suposed to recognise that talking is the new management speech for replacing doing

        Reply
        1. Bloke
          April 27, 2023

          Ian B:
          A saying went something like:
          There are two types of people: people who talk, and people who do things. People who talk control the people who do things, and make more money.

          The saying suggested that talking is not doing something, but talk does much to cause what is done.

          Reply
          1. Mickey Taking
            May 20, 2023

            Evident in the latest Government circles? Lots of jobs for those who talk, jobs declining for those that do!

    2. Ian+wragg
      April 26, 2023

      Just an update. 30 plus gigawatt of windmills today generating 0.87gw or 2% of demand and the idiots in charge want to double down on them.
      Saudi Arabia of wi d ny elbow. Roll on the power cuts this winter.

      Reply
      1. Lynn Atkinson
        April 26, 2023

        I wish Sir John would tell us the total amount the U.K. has spent on wind farms and solar energy and the total amount of energy they have produced so that we know what they cost per kWh.
        The fact that the backup generators need to be operational during the period when ‘Green energy’ is deployed must be included in the cost. Maintenance, burying of old blades thus taking valuable land out of production must also be included.
        What is the projection of land lost to buried blades for those windmills currently in existence and what is the value of the land lost?

        Reply
      2. Cuibono
        April 26, 2023

        +many
        I saw a very interesting prog. Last night.
        Apparently when Queen Anne wanted to pass the Act of Union with Scotland …NOBODY wanted it in Scotland. There were even several referenda..all dead against it.
        So the Queen “bought” the Scottish MPs. They sold out!!.

        Windmills indeed! EVs my foot …we’re all going to frazzle….get your alarms switched on…of course they can’t really believe the nonsense.

        “Such A Parcel Of Rogues In A Nation” Robert Burns 1791

        Farewell to a’ our Scottish fame,
        Fareweel our ancient glory,
        Fareweel ev’n to the Scottish name,
        Sae fam’d in martial story.
        Now Sark rins o’er the Solway sands,
        And Tweed rins to the ocean,
        To mark where England’s province stands –
        Such a parcel of rogues in a nation.

        What force or guile could not subdue,
        Thro’ many warlike ages,
        Is wrought now by a coward few
        For hireling traitor’s wages.
        The English steel we could disdain;
        Secure in valour’s station;
        But English gold has been our bane –
        Such a parcel of rogues in a nation.

        O would, or I had seen the day
        That treason thus could sell us,
        My auld gray head had lien in clay,
        Wi’ Bruce and loyal Wallace!
        But pith and power, till my last hour,
        I’ll mak’ this declaration;
        We’re bought and sold for English gold –
        Such a parcel of rogues in a nation.

        Reply
        1. Mickey Taking
          May 20, 2023

          Not so different even now. The SNP party always gets bought off with more money handed out to finance this incompetent administration.

          Reply
      3. Ian+wragg
        April 26, 2023

        And we’re running a coal plant as well as Importing 20% of demand
        Scandalous.

        Reply
        1. glen cullen
          April 26, 2023

          Drax has now closed its coal for good

          Reply
          1. Mickey Taking
            May 20, 2023

            The UK’s largest opencast coalmine must close after an extension to keep it running was rejected. It means production at Ffos-y-Fran, near Merthyr Tydfil, must now stop after 16 years of excavation. The operators asked for an extension until 2024, arguing coal from the mine was needed by the steel industry.

          2. Ashley
            May 20, 2023

            So now it just burns young coal – chopped down forests imported on diesel ships. That increases CO2 per MWH and cost more – great plan Sunak!

      4. Ashley
        May 20, 2023

        Lord Frost warns: Hurtling towards net zero at any cost will be a mistake

        Indeed but even if it cost almost nothing and we went very slowly it would be a mistake as no positive benefit from it anyway.

        Reply
    3. Margaret
      May 20, 2023

      Rishi Sunak is quiet on this bearing in mind Sir Chris Huhn was once his boss.

      Reply
  3. Cuibono
    April 26, 2023

    B o E aka dear govt. has announced that we all need to accept that we are poorer.
    BUT apparently its mission is “to deliver monetary and financial stability for the people of the United Kingdom.”
    A new “mission” then …surely?

    Reply
    1. Ashley
      April 26, 2023

      Well the BoE and Sunak printed money so as to make your £1s in wages worth more like 75p, they then took more of it in taxes, increased council tax hugely, doubled your mortgage interest and increased energy costs hugely with the mad net zero religion.

      So yes indeed we are much poorer. Thanks very much Sunak and BoE but people do need a pay rise in order to have enough to live on, eat and to afford to get to and from work.

      Reply
      1. Ian B
        April 26, 2023

        @Ashley In a recent speech on the need for more and better maths the PM stated that higher taxes would reduce inflation. I guess he means if you dont have any money then you cant spend so for you there is no inflation

        Reply
        1. Lynn Atkinson
          April 26, 2023

          But when you close your business, there is no tax either.

          Reply
      2. Cuibono
        April 26, 2023

        +1
        A veritable catalogue of disasters.
        Clueless or crafty?

        Reply
    2. Ian B
      April 26, 2023

      @Cuibono – Yet they still award themselves inflation busting pay and conditions, that the taxpayer has to fund along with their endless mistakes.

      Reply
      1. Cuibono
        April 26, 2023

        +1
        That’s the elephant in the room isn’t it?
        Cats with magpies…don’t acknowledge it and no one will notice.
        Well…we DO notice!

        Reply
    3. IanT
      April 26, 2023

      It’s an odd situation really. A BoE Official stating that we need to accept that we are all going to be poorer, whilst the Bank has been busy devaluing our currency and the Government has been busy increasing our taxes. Of course we are becoming poorer but why do we have to accept it?
      Perhaps if our ‘Leaders’ started to worry about how to make our country (and it’s citizens) more self-sufficent and less dependant, everyone could be a little bit better off. Stop worrying about things we cannot control (like climate) and start managing those that we can. Stop measuring success by simple GDP and get back to looking at Balance of Trade (and how to make it positive). Look for waste in public service rather than ever increasing ways to spend public money. Start managing population to match levels of housing and key services – if you cannot house, educate and provide medical care for people, don’t invite them here via legal routes, let alone allowing illegal ones. We may no longer be an ‘Imperial’ power but why do we need to be a stupid (and poorer) one?

      Reply
      1. Cuibono
        April 26, 2023

        +1
        Agree 100%.
        Quite Dickensian really.
        The gruel is werry good really and you get a whole half bowl full every other day!
        Personally I’d like to go back to the steak that we slogged our guts out for!!

        Reply
      2. Lynn Atkinson
        April 26, 2023

        It’s as if the Bank believe they create wealth rather simply running printing presses. If we are poorer then so are they and so is the country, so they had better stop tweaking the noses of Russia and China. They better close the borders and repatriate to France all the illegal immigrants. They had better defund the legal aid system for foreigners. They had better cut the global warming rubbish, and maybe the King had better pay all the taxes we pay, then he will have the incentive to lobby for lower taxes.

        Reply
        1. Mickey Taking
          May 20, 2023

          and we continue to wave at pigs floating by our window.

          Reply
      3. Donna
        May 21, 2023

        The UN/WEF are on a levelling down mission to bring the affluent western nations nearer to the living standard of the 2nd and 3rd world.

        They are being truthful when they say we have to get used to being poorer …. because that’s what they intend to ensure happens.

        Reply
    4. Lynn Atkinson
      April 26, 2023

      Once you are so poor that you can’t keep your business open – unless you happen to have an hotel filled with criminals for whom the Government pays, then surely you are the poorest people on earth? Even Africans can trade unhindered.
      The establishment has lost all fear of us. The spokesman for the BOE and ‘world leaders’ genuinely think we are sub-human idiots. Ergo Justin Trudeau admits the terrible harms done by the CV19 ‘vaccine’ but denies that he caused anybody to take it!🤯

      Reply
      1. Cuibono
        April 26, 2023

        +1
        Heinous crime to prevent people trading.
        The powers-that-be have been working on it for years.
        And in the U.K. apparently those who made a good deal £££s via the plague are working on an amendment to stop any discussion of pandemic failures and harms! Misinformation apparently.
        We are in such trouble.

        Reply
  4. Ian B
    April 26, 2023

    Good morning Sir John

    I am clearly no expert on these matters, but reflecting how Governments and their Central Banks act surely the system is flawed in the ‘real world’. The assumption being made is that a ‘one size’ fits all is the best approach, best approach for who? It is never the people that pay that gain, they are always the loser.
    Whether its Central Banks or Governments them working together in unison seems to have more to do with World Government and their own personal gratification than the practicalities of any situation.
    We are beginning to arrive at the moment in time where it is something called the political class that is the enemy of us all.

    Reply
  5. Livelogic
    April 26, 2023

    THE flypast of aircraft celebrating the Coronation of the King will be 10 times smaller than the one which flew over Buckingham Palace when his late mother was crowned.

    So says the Telegraph today. I assume they mean it will be 1/10 of the size! But if King Charles really believes the climate alarmist guff he endlessly comes out with why do we have any expensive and energy wasteful flypast at at? More do as I say not as I do hypocrisy. CO2 is not a serious problem at all Charlie go and study the issue as perhaps two A-levels in history and French grades B and C and Arch. and Anth. at Trinity perhaps does not help you understand this.

    My wife get an email saying she has won some coronation concert ticket with two days to accept the offer a few minute later another email saying they have all gone. Not very good PR especially as three royal three bank holiday we have had recently cost my businesses about £40,000 yet not even a ticket for us.

    Reply
    1. Ian B
      April 26, 2023

      @Livelogic
      In relative terms that in itself would be brilliant. The UK armed forces are now less the 5% of the size. The RAF in aircraft terms is probably down to 1% of back then. All from a population that has doubled in size, and that is now threatened from more directions. Your Government in Action.

      Reply
  6. Mike Wilson
    April 26, 2023

    Good to see that the endless focus on ‘growth’ has been qualified to ‘growth per capita’ – I.e. not the growth caused by continuous high immigration.

    That said – we are all supposed to somehow produce more? Produce more of what? What are we short of that is not already being produced? Or do you mean increase GDP by producing more in this country as opposed to importing so much?

    I’d be interested to know:

    why we should produce more per capita?
    will we ever produce enough?
    or is the aim perpetual growth

    Could (perish the thought) this growth be obtained by increasing productivity by working, for example, a 4 day week?

    Reply I have regularly set out need for more domestic capacity in energy, water, NHS beds, food growing etc

    Reply
    1. Ian B
      April 26, 2023

      @Mike Wilson – I think the words you are looking for is the UK now thanks to Government dictates has an exponential growth in ‘Imports’

      Reply
    2. Paul Cuthbertson
      April 26, 2023

      MW – the PLANNED-demic gave thousands the opportunity to do NOTHING and still get rewarded. This practice continues relentlessly throughout society especially in public services. They spend more time explaining why something cannot be done rather than just doing the job.
      Sack the the lot. Oh I forgot, one cannot sack anybody these days without going through the relentless procedures of BS.

      Reply
    3. Mickey Taking
      May 20, 2023

      reply to reply….and of which were you successful?

      Reply
    4. Margaret
      May 20, 2023

      Back garden stuff Mike..the good life.

      Reply
  7. Bert+Young
    April 26, 2023

    Due to age and certain mobility restrictions I regret that I will not now be able to attend your All Souls lecture . I always enjoyed these in the past and catching up with some old acquaintances. Sorry about this Sir John but time marches on .

    Reply
    1. Lifelogic
      April 26, 2023

      Sorry to hear that.

      Will recordings made available on line JR?

      Reply
    2. Chris S
      April 28, 2023

      Could we please see your lecture on Zoom, Sir John ?

      Reply
  8. a-tracy
    April 26, 2023

    The problem is John you are tainted by your own Treasury team, they’ve been in charge for a decade.

    Reply
  9. Derek
    April 26, 2023

    Given the woke element now permeating our Universities, I trust SJ will not be banned from educating some of the attendees?

    Reply
  10. Ian B
    April 26, 2023

    …. said in a statement: “My expulsion from the Conservative Party under false pretences only confirms the culture of corruption, collusion and cover-ups which plagues our political system.”

    I have no idea of the whys and wherefores of the above Gentleman’s situation, other than there seems to be a scenario of ‘free speech’ for those that toe the line and agree, but isolation and purgatory for those that don’t. What I do agree is that the semantics of this Conservative Government and their synergy with those on that used to be on the opposite benches along with all those like minded clones that threaten the UK moving forward, does keep pushing us (the UK) to a situation of a plague on all their houses

    Reply
    1. Ian B
      April 26, 2023

      @Ian B
      Also in the Media
      The Rt Hon Steve Barclay MP Secretary of State for Health and Social Care is accused by the members of the Civil Service in his department of bullying. That will teach him, his should know like the rest in this Conservative Government his boss wants everyone on the team to be out and out Socialists so as to full inti line with ‘Blob’ disapline – another new appointment on the way, another dedicated remoaner will be in place soon.

      Reply
      1. R.Grange
        May 20, 2023

        + 1, Ian. Steve Barclay is one of the few remaining Brexiteers, so yes, he’s obviously a target. I see he is described by civil servants as ‘demanding’ and ‘challenging’, i.e. he expects them to do their job properly, which is definitely not on, as we know by now.

        Reply
  11. glen cullen
    April 26, 2023

    If allowed in other news
    The recent Sudan ordeal has highlighted the number of passports and dual nationality issued to non UK born people ….our politicians giveaway this jewel to impress the international community without understanding the consequences …gold visa/passport to anyone who has money

    Reply
  12. Jim+Whitehead
    April 26, 2023

    Ian B, The expulsion on false pretences is thoroughly disgusting.
    That the Conservative party should use such vile tactics should be roundly deplored by the members. Their silence is eloquent. For such scurrilous behaviour the party deserves to be rejected by the voters as resoundingly as the BNP.
    I will cast my own vote in furtherance of that aim.
    Is Sir John comfortable with the expulsion?

    Reply
    1. glen cullen
      April 26, 2023

      +1

      Reply
  13. hefner
    April 26, 2023

    Well, if you have no idea, don’t you think it might have been a good idea to inform yourself before writing anything here? Specially something as circumvoluted and meaningless as your comment?
    Or is the attraction of a blank screen bigger than that of getting informed?
    Andrew Bridgen MP has been on the news practically every six months since he was elected in 2010, and usually not for anything particularly respectable.
    The good thing is that today there are a lot of reports on his ‘sparkling’ career … and today’s altercation with Lee Anderson MP at O.K. Corral … oops Portcullis House.

    Reply
    1. IanB
      April 26, 2023

      So you appear to be believe verbatim what the media says, it’s thier view first and that is important to you?

      Or are you saying you were there at every part of the events that transpired and are the editor of the reports you mention. Therefore your actual wish is to close down an alternative view to your own. That is joining in with the removal of ‘free speech’.

      I didn’t at any stage defend or express a view other than everyone has a right to one. It would appear we have a Government that shares you interpretation of the world

      Then again you could be going for your more usual petty sniping

      Reply
      1. Mickey Taking
        May 20, 2023

        I don’t see alternative views being closed down.

        Reply
    2. Richard II
      May 20, 2023

      I believe the voters of NW Leicestershire will decide whether what Andrew Bridgen has done for their constituency is ‘respectable’, Hefner. As far as I know he has every reason to be very proud of his record. Also, he has my respect for changing his stance on the Covid vaccine harms question: After all, when the facts change, a reasonable person changes their mind. The fact of excess deaths, the fact of high numbers of reported harms in many countries, the facts from increasing numbers of post-vaccine autopsies, these weren’t available two years ago, but now they are, and precaution from now on is more than justified. I wouldn’t want an MP that stubbornly and blindly followed the party line on everything important. Especially when I look at current government policies on a whole range of other issues.

      Reply
      1. hefner
        May 22, 2023

        I hope you have realised that there has been a glitch in Sir John’s system. On 20 May it picked up many contributions originally posted on 26 April.

        Reply It’s not a glitch . I repeated the posting.

        Reply
    3. EU fan
      May 20, 2023

      You tell ’em hefner.
      All posters should write well researched essays like you always do.

      Reply
  14. Paul Cuthbertson
    April 26, 2023

    I am waiting for the implementation of the Quantum Financial System (QFS) and NESARA / GESARA.

    Reply
  15. glen cullen
    April 26, 2023

    Is the Tory party now too woke & left wing for Andrew Brigden MP ….the new Tories don’t like free speech

    Reply
  16. ChrisS
    April 27, 2023

    I’ve been to your lectures before but at 100 miles, the distance is now rather too far to travel.
    Will this one be on Zoom ? If so, I would be keen to sign on.

    Reply
  17. Lindsay McDougall
    April 27, 2023

    Let’s keep it simple. Sack the current Governor of the Bank of England, who is responsible for the great inflation, and tell his successor to stick to the knitting. To get back to 2% AVERAGE inflation, we need five successive years of zero inflation. Who knows, we may even get to like zero inflation.

    Reply
    1. rose
      May 20, 2023

      He could not have done it without the Usurper (as Chancellor) signing it off each time, as the taxpayer stands behind the Governor for any losses he makes.

      Reply
  18. DOM
    May 20, 2023

    I see little point in such a lecture if John doesn’t fully expose ideology that is now driving western governments towards a state of affairs that may conclude with the total implosion of our way of life

    I believe John’s party is complicit in the deliberate dismantling of a culture that has seen Britain through many a tough time but now they crawl like snakes to the altar of woke globalism whose purpose is the total compliance through threat and oppression towards an ideology that weaponises race, gender, climate and public health using Maoist thought tactics and brainwashing.

    We are being forced by the State to accept the unreal, illogical and the unnatural

    Reply
    1. Margaret
      May 20, 2023

      John is an academic to them and doesn’t have any clout. If he says I told you so years later another excuse for the circumstances will be put out and they will loudly ridicule. Only money talks.

      Reply
  19. Richard1
    May 20, 2023

    If it was live-streamed or at least recorded the message would be multiplied 10x

    Reply Reading as host determined the system used

    Reply
    1. Richard1
      May 20, 2023

      OK. Will you be able to publish the transcript?

      Reply
  20. glen cullen
    May 20, 2023

    Home Office – 19 May 2023
    Illegal Immigrants – 80
    Boats – 2
    ….just two large hotel required toda

    Reply
    1. Timaction
      May 20, 2023

      Zero deported.

      Reply
  21. Keith from Leeds
    May 20, 2023

    The Government & Central Banks seem to live in a parallel universe where everything is fine.
    There is no focus on reducing the cost of government to make room for tax reductions. The PM says he wants to halve inflation, so he is happy for our money to lose 5% of its value each year. The B of E has failed but Andrew Bailey is still there, why? The Chancellor radiates negativity & misery every time he speaks. Immigration is out of control, both legal & illegal.
    Where is the champion of conservative values in this pathetic government? Why are they not listening to people like Sir John? Why are they not even trying to get back to conservative values? Its a shambles & they will pay at the ballot box next year.

    Reply
  22. paul
    May 20, 2023

    Central Banks will not change and for that matter are not needed, and also do not print money it against the law for them to do so, they do not have a banking licence to do so, they just organizations.

    Reply
  23. Derek
    May 20, 2023

    Of course it should, SJ but the question is, “Will it”?
    CBs, to me, are as the unelected Mandarins and civil servants within Whitehall and Westminster. They mess up but none take the responsibility and can despite the damage they do to the economy and the country.
    So, what have they lose? A knighthood? Possibly, but never their “face” nor their ‘position’ nor their pension. If they do not suffer penalty as do those in the Private Sector there will be no change in their thinking nor the gambles they care to conduct.
    Just look at the UK inflation figures and mess we are in now because of their bad decisions. Has there been a change of management at the BoE because of it? Not from this side of the street.

    Reply
  24. Ian B
    May 20, 2023

    Sir John
    To day 20/05/2023 the comments showing are from previous days/weeks and un-connected to your post

    Reply
  25. Margaret
    May 20, 2023

    The writer says John will say this and John will argue that (roughly) but who is the writer.

    Reply
  26. Original Richard
    May 20, 2023

    The great western inflation is deliberately caused by following the chimera that is Net Zero with the intention to weaken and impoverish the west.

    Reply
    1. Original Richard
      May 20, 2023

      PS :

      At COP26 our PM, then Chancellor, said that the global financial system (viz western economies) would be rewired for Net Zero.

      Inflation is one of the tools to be used to achieve this rewriting and the intended consequence of wealth destruction.

      Reply
  27. Original Richard
    May 20, 2023

    The best way to ensure a low inflation rate is to make the BoE’s top employees’ pensions not inflation proof.

    Reply

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