Written Answers from the Treasury – Bank of England compensation

This answer reveals the huge extent of anticipated Bank of England losses on bonds they paid such high prices for. These losses are made worse by plans to sell bonds at big losses in the markets which they need not do.They should hold them to repayment on maturity.Ā 

 

Treasury has provided the following answer to your written parliamentary question (187009):

Question:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, how much his Department paid the Bank of England to compensate for losses on bonds last year; and what the budget for such payment is this year. (187009)

Tabled on: 02 June 2023

Answer:
Andrew Griffith:

HM Treasury has indemnified any losses or profits which emerge from the independent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Englandā€™s Quantitative Easing (QE) policy. In the previous financial year (2022-2023), HM Treasury received Ā£4,164mn in excess quarterly profits, while HM Treasury transferred Ā£5,010mn to cover quarterly losses. The net transfers for 2022-2023 were Ā£846mn to cover QE losses.

The future financial position of the APF is highly uncertain and will be determined by market conditions and the independent MPCā€™s approach to sales. As outlined in this year’s Mains estimate, HM Treasury has provisioned for Ā£49,100mn of cash transfers to the Bank of England this financial year. This estimate has some conservatism built in to address the uncertainty of future cash flows, resulting in a prudent, but realistic, budget request for 2023-24.

The answer was submitted on 12 Jun 2023 at 15:34.

78 Comments

  1. Cuibono
    June 16, 2023

    And of the war? How much is that costing? Whatā€™s the cost so far?
    And the total cost of shutting up shop. Of imprisoning folk for several years and decimating their businesses?
    And a figure for hotel accommodation and related expenses.
    After allā€¦.we pay yet call no tune.

    1. Hat man
      June 16, 2023

      Cuibono, the HoC Library says Britain has committed Ā£4.6 billion in military assistance to Ukraine ‘so far’. Which leaves open how much has been spent in non-military assistance. But what is the sense in providing humanitarian assistance with one hand, when with the other we are paying to keep the war going, for goodness knows how long?

      1. Cuibono
        June 16, 2023

        +++
        And giving Charge of the Light Brigade style advice.
        (Thereā€™s a lot of lithium, titanium, iron ore out there I believe).

  2. Mark B
    June 16, 2023

    Good morning, and a belated happy birthday to our kind host. I hope you had a nice day, Sir John and enjoyed the Climate Change, I mean weather ?

    —-

    Let us not forget that, these losses are to be paid for by the likes of you and me.

    How generous – not !

    1. Cuibono
      June 16, 2023

      Tsk!Tsk!
      We canā€™t ā€œenjoyā€ it!
      Itā€™s all a VERY DANGEROUS emergency.šŸŒž

      1. Cuibono
        June 16, 2023

        Apart from which we canā€™t enjoy our garden anyway.
        No hot tub and music shindig from the usual suspects but much idling of engines from the small road nearby. One car sitting there for over an hour. The present one texting madly with engine running.
        Obviously they are saving the planet?
        Never mind the economy.
        Bring back the Bobby on the beat!

    2. Wil
      June 16, 2023

      Mark B. Sir Johns birthday on 15th June is a date without Climate Change in the UK!
      The Central England Temperature Record from 1770 to 2020 for that day shows a DECREASE in temperature of 0.3C per century. I’m sure he has noticed this.

      1. Lifelogic
        June 16, 2023

        This despite that fact that one would expect an increase just from the urban island effect at the country (and especially airport where many sensors are now has far more concrete about.

  3. Lynn Atkinson
    June 16, 2023

    The Treasury must not be allowed to hide behind the skirts of the BOE. They and the First Lord of the Treasury are culpable!
    It is ridiculous for the BOE to announce it is looking into its own monetary incontinence. Obviously this need to be done by a specially appointed committee of the House of Commons comprised of people with economic credentials. Such a Committee needs to include JR.

    1. Mike Wilson
      June 16, 2023

      Obviously this need to be done by a specially appointed committee of the House of Commons comprised of people with economic credentials.

      Thank you. I like to start the day with a good laugh. If the House of Commons contained, or had access to (and used), people with economic credentials, we wouldnā€™t be in the mess we are in with the debt clock racing on towards 3 trillion.

      A million used to be a lot of money and a billion was a colossal amount. Then governments made billions feel as ordinary as millions. Now they are doing the same thing with trillions.

      Iā€™d like to see every newspaper carry the total debt figure at the top of the front page every day – to embarrass the government to stop the endless borrowing.

      1. Lifelogic
        June 16, 2023

        No so much “credentials” as intelligence, numeracy, honestly and people actually interested in delivering for the people who elect them, pay their wages and fund the nearly 50% of GDP they government largely waste.

        In reality with the inflation “taxes”, money printing “taxes”, net zero market rigging, licence fees, motorist mugging and the over regulation “taxes” (that waste so much of people’s time on largely pointless activity) it is well over 50% of GDP largely wasted.

      2. Berkshire Alan
        June 16, 2023

        Mike
        There used to be a large electronic sign in the centre of New York which did exactly as you suggest for the American Debt, showing it rising every second, it was so large and going up so fast, it was difficult to comprehend.
        Not sure if it is still there !
        Certainly agree with you that the figures now just appear to being treated like monopoly money, because the sums involved are so huge, it is difficult for any normal person to relate to them, however I wish they would not shorten them with names (Million, Billion, Trillion) but just include all of the Zero’s to show the true scale.

        1. Mike Wilson
          June 16, 2023

          Alan, there are a number of debt clocks on the web. To be fair they show different numbers – but way over 2 trillion is the norm. This one:

          https://commodity.com/data/uk/debt-clock/

          shows 2.6 trillion. Debt is growing at over 5 grand a second. Why people lend our government money baffles me.

          I was telling my son yesterday that when he was a baby the Tory government was doing exactly what it is doing now – having suckered people into the housing market it then caused/allowed rates to double causing the infamous ā€˜mortgage miseryā€™ and repossessions.

          I told him that then, late 80s/early 90s, foreign currency mortgages became a thing. He has to remortgage in 3 months and is facing a monthly increase of nearly a grand. He is looking at emigrating. I suggested he might want to think about a Swiss currency mortgage. I did explain the exchange rate risk. But when you have such an utterly useless government as ours, dramatic action must be taken.

          I saw that ****wit Hunt quoted yesterday – ā€˜there will be no help for mortgage payersā€™ says Hunt. Yeah, alright for him and all the other parasites in the commons.

    2. James1
      June 16, 2023

      Unfortunately at present we appear to have too many people in the House of Commons with ā€˜Badā€™ economic credentials as opposed to ā€˜Goodā€™ economic credentials.

      1. Lynn Atkinson
        June 16, 2023

        Thatā€™s our fault. The population must recover the right to return whomsoever we like without being constrained by the political machine – to which we recently surrendered.

        There are people in Parliament with economic clout, especially if you included the Lords.

        If the PM and the CPP understood that their seat depended on it, they would quickly convene such a committee with the right people on it. Itā€™s easy to find the right people, look at their record and correlate it with what actually happened.

    3. Lifelogic
      June 16, 2023

      Indeed, but could they even find any other competents (in addition to JR) from the rest of the MPs? Certainly currency debaser Sunak would not qualify? Even Bill Cash is alas retiring. Only about 10 MPs sound on the net zero insanity too – which is also pointlessly pushing up inflation hugely and wrecking the economy.

      So two minutes silence for the three victims in the appalling stabbings in Nottingham. Can we also have
      some recognition for the circa 200 excess people dying each day almost certainly mainly due to the net harm vaccines roll out. About 80,000 so far. Many young people too who never needed Covid vaccines (even had they been safe and effective as was dishonestly claimed). Deaths mainly from cardio vascular, blood clots and liver issues it seems.

      Tory MPs still boasting about their rapid vaccine roll out (even the usually sensible Dan Hannah did on Sunday). A rapid roll out or net harm vaccines is not something to boast of.

      May Glenda Jackson rest in peace. I once sort her help when she was my MP in Hampstead over something the UK second rate court system had mucked up and she was delightful & extremely helpful.

      Her policies and dislike of Thatcher were however totally misdirected. Thatcher did far more for the poor than Labour ever have. I often wonder what make people support the hugely harmful policies of the left is it upbringing, stupidity, a lack of logic, parental issue, a bitter chip on the shoulder.

      Most Conservative MPs like Hunt and Sunak now embrace big state socialism too it seems.

  4. Donna
    June 16, 2023

    “This estimate has some conservatism built in to address the uncertainty of future cash flows…..”

    I do believe Andrew Griffiths is gas-lighting you Sir John. He must know that mentioning “conservatism” when the Treasury is operating socialist policies, would get you very exercised šŸ™‚

    Why should the Government care? It’s only taxpayers’ money they’re squandering and what’s another Ā£49 million when they’ve got us Ā£2 trillion in debt largely because of the economy-wrecking lockdowns?

    1. Lifelogic
      June 16, 2023

      Well not just the the economy-wrecking lockdowns but also the economy-wrecking net zero, the excess death from the net harm vaccines, the vast waste (and corruption) in government, the over taxation of everyone, HS2, the largely worthless degrees and student debt for these degrees, the very poor public service, the bloated and largely inept government and LEAs, the insane energy agenda, the pushing of EVs, heatpumps, Hydrogen, Carbon Capture, the sick joke, multi million, misdirected (have a test first) Covid inquiry…

      1. Lifelogic
        June 16, 2023

        Also all the open door low skilled migration that lowers living standards per cap very significantly too. Putting ever more pressure on housing, police, schools, roads, social services, prisons, the NHS…

      2. Donna
        June 16, 2023

        All true, but I thought I’d keep it simple.

    2. formula57
      June 16, 2023

      It is 49 billion is it not, rather than million?

      I was concerned until I saw it was all quite ok because the squandering is being done by the independent Monetary Policy Committee”. Now if it was not independent, it would be a real worry.

    3. Hugh Cameron
      June 16, 2023

      It’s Ā£49 Billion. Not Ā£49 million and according to Sir John it was avoidable. Consider also that these (criminally?) incompetents think we are going to pay them 40% of our already taxed estate when we die. Dereliction on this level happening under the tenure of Sunak as Chancellor and PM should dominate the news and investigative journalism. This is in a different universe to the confected outrage around cake in the office.
      God help us…….

    4. Sir Joe Soap
      June 16, 2023

      Ā£49 billion. That’s Ā£2000 for every family in the UK. In 12 months. Conservative inContinence. Liblab might be tax and spend but this is tax and chuck away to bond vigilantes. They badly need inflation so don’t let that Snake Sunak hiss he’s anti-inflation. He’s desperate for it, even if it feeds this death spiral which will generate even more bond losses in 24-25. That’s why he started throwing money out in 20-21.

    5. Lynn Atkinson
      June 16, 2023

      The individuals in Parliament are made to care because we sack them. Then they have to make it in the world as ā€˜and ordinary personā€™.
      Letā€™s see how well Johnson does now that he has no patronage to bestow.

    6. Denis+Cooper
      June 16, 2023

      I presume that the Ā£49 billion covers anticipated interest payments and capital repayments on the Bank’s portfolio of gilts, with perhaps a small part to cover any losses the Bank makes on sales. If the standard payments were not going to the Bank they would be going to private investors holding the gilts, but the losses on sales are different because they only arise because the Bank has bought too high and sold too low.

  5. Cuibono
    June 16, 2023

    Happy Birthday for yesterday JR šŸŒŗ

    I just wish I could fathom whether they are deliberately trying to destroy the economy!

    1. Sharon
      June 16, 2023

      Cuibono
      George Cooper, TCW 5 June, wrote a two parter discussing whether the Central banks were causing financial chaos. He goes back and looking at their actions over a few decades really does wonder.

      https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/are-central-banks-causing-economic-chaos-part-2/
      At the beginning of part 2 you can click to read part 1

      1. Cuibono
        June 16, 2023

        100%
        Thanks very much!

  6. Javelin
    June 16, 2023

    I have pointed out a few times recently that the real control and power in this country belongs to the Watchdogs and Regulators.

    Look at any story in the news you can trace the problems back to unelected Watchdogs and Regulators.

    This should be the target of the Reform Party

    1. Javelin
      June 16, 2023

      FYI. Watchdogs protect consumers. Regulators control producers. Producers and Consumers are of Markets, Information, Law, Politics and Families.

    2. Lifelogic
      June 16, 2023

      Regulators get captures by the industries they regulate. They rarely act in the interests of consumers they generally act in a parasitic way together with the regulated industry leaching of the customers. Delivering the min. they can get away with and charging as much as they can for it.

      1. Lynn Atkinson
        June 16, 2023

        And unfortunately no Watchdog has a wide enough remit to do anything for consumers. Itā€™s a ā€˜holding operationā€™ and smokescreen.

    3. Ian B
      June 16, 2023

      @Javelin – and this Conservtive Government is in turn is their management, the ones we empower and pay to ensure we get value for money for our taxes. The trouble is ‘job-for-the-boys’ seems to interfere.

  7. Sea_Warrior
    June 16, 2023

    ‘They should hold them to repayment on maturity.’ Indeed. Is the Bank of England now being run as badly as Silicon Valley Bank, I wonder?

    1. Berkshire Alan
      June 16, 2023

      S W
      They certainly appear clueless and unconcerned, I certainly think Bailey should be bought before a committee to answer some real searching questions from people like JR.
      Unlikely as the Government does not seem to have clue either, and for whatever reason chooses not to use all of the people with talent and the right experience within the Party and back benches.

  8. Bloke
    June 16, 2023

    The Treasury and Bank of England need more fundamental guidance to stop the harm their addiction causes.
    This Govt website is designed to help:
    https://www.nhs.uk/live-well/addiction-support/gambling-addiction/

  9. Narrow Shoulders
    June 16, 2023

    Highly off topic but this annoys me immensely

    ” Lord Caine, who was appointed as a Northern Ireland minister by Boris Johnson in 2019, said he could understand why people might feel angry about Mr Johnson’s conduct, and spoke about his mother’s funeral during the pandemic.

    “I had to deliver a eulogy to the nine other people in the chapel and then go home, sit on my own, in her house for the rest of the afternoon,” he told BBC Northern Ireland’s The View politics programme.

    “I have never felt so lonely in my life. So I think people might draw their own conclusions about how I feel and I imagine a great many people up and down the country will share those feelings.”

    The public, the media and the NHS were all calling for more lock downs and ever more stringent rules (such as masks and separation). The general population wanted this and the luvvies on our screen wanted more. To complain about feeling lonely when this is what they wanted is disingenuous.

    Boris Johnson should have been sacked for incompetence but not because a few people who knew that the likelihood of Covid being dangerous to them was infinitesimal carried on with their lives while others acquiesced and worked from home . Our response to Covid was wrong and instead of pursuing those who carried on regardless we should learn not to shut down again. Quarantine the weak and sick not everyone else.

    1. Lynn Atkinson
      June 16, 2023

      Apparently nobody in the political machine ā€˜felt lonelyā€™ because they were all at a party. If Jenkins is guilty of breaking a Covid ā€˜lawā€™ so is the Deputy Speaker for throwing the party.
      But Johnson was judged on lying, not on breaking Covid ā€˜lawsā€™.
      We call him The Lying King. He has lied all his life, and is angry that for the first time he has been called to account.

      1. Mark B
        June 16, 2023

        +1

        Well said, Lynn

      2. Berkshire Alan
        June 16, 2023

        Lynn

        Have a look at Guido Fawkes website, it shows Rishi allegedly telling Parliament (to a Question asked by another member) that he did not attend a Party, which was part of a later investigation by the police, and for which he was fined for attending with Boris.
        Most of us would recognise that he was perhaps telling the truth at the time, because it is not what any of us would call a “party” at all.
        Then we had so called Beergate with Starmer, which again was not a “party”, but a gathering after work.
        Then we have a senior member of the Committee which has cast Judgement on Boris, now being alleged to have attended a “party” for a relative, and perhaps now waiting Police investigation.
        I am no fan of Boris, but clearly this is a Witch Hunt to remove him, at seemingly all costs.
        We simply cannot have one rule for one, and another rule for the others under similar circumstances.
        Party politics and political cronyism is ruining this Country.
        I hope John you will be voting against the findings on Boris, simply because it all stinks.

        1. Jasper
          June 16, 2023

          Alan – the privileges committee have behaved like a lynch mob. Absolutely disgraceful and shameful.

      3. Richard II
        June 16, 2023

        Johnson was fined Ā£50 for breaking Covid restrictions, because someone dobbed him in. I believe the police have not pursued Bernard Jenkin’s alleged drinks party under Tier 2 restrictions because… no-one present brought it to their notice.

        So Jenkin can’t have committed an offence. I see, that’s how it works.

    2. Mike Wilson
      June 16, 2023

      The general population wanted this

      No. The public sector wanted it. Anyone with a guaranteed wage and a secure job – courtesy of the rest of us – wanted it. The bleeding heart, woke nutters in the media – part the BBC – wanted it. Anyone who was going to lose wages by being locked down did not want it.

  10. Bloke
    June 16, 2023

    Message to Bank of England:
    Are you having problems with gambling?
    Try this questionnaire:
    ā€¢ Has your gambling caused any financial problems for you or your country?
    ā€¢ Do you bet more than you can afford to lose?
    ā€¢ Do you need to gamble with larger amounts of money to get the same feeling?
    ā€¢ Have you tried to win back money you have lost (chasing losses)?
    ā€¢ Have you wondered whether you have a problem with gambling?
    ā€¢ Has your gambling caused you any feelings of stress or anxiety?
    ā€¢ Have any MPs criticised your betting or told you that you had a problem with gambling (regardless of whether or not you thought it was true)?
    ā€¢ Have you ever felt guilty about the way you gamble or what happens when you gamble?
    ā€¢ Why donā€™t you give up and resign NOW?

  11. Sir Joe Soap
    June 16, 2023

    As for the Johnson report, never mind the minutiae of whether or not he saw or didn’t see “goings-on”. The cardinal point is that it was wrong to impose conditions on the whole country which weren’t then stringently enforced within his own domain. Period.

    1. Cuibono
      June 16, 2023

      For something that he ( and others) clearly neither feared or even believed in).
      His initial reaction was the correct oneā€¦yet he succumbed to pressureā€¦or ā€¦?
      Just imagine if he had played the leader and followed his instincts.

      1. Mark B
        June 16, 2023

        It was his Churchill moment, but our Dunkirk debacle.

    2. Donna
      June 16, 2023

      Parliament is extremely exercised about the fact he allegedly lied about cake/parties at the Dispatch Box.

      They seem completely unconcerned that for two years he, Handcock, Sunak, Whitty, Vallance, VanDam and others stood at the No.10 podium and lied to the British people (the people they’re supposed to represent) about the risk Covid posed to them ….. and the consequent wreckage of the economy and millions of lives.

      1. Mark B
        June 16, 2023

        It is not the lying that annoys me, Johnson has been a proven liar many times so, caveat emptor applies, but the fact that no due diligence or any fact checking was ever done. A total dereliction of duty in my opinion.

      2. Hat man
        June 16, 2023

        Excellent point, Donna.

        But they’re getting away with it because of the myth of ‘we-didn’t know-at-the-time.’

        They knew the NHS couldn’t really cope with a pandemic because Hunt, then Health Secretary, had run Operation Cygnus a few years earlier. It found major deficiencies in ICU provision, trained nurses, hospital beds, PPE etc. What was done about them? Next to nothing. That’s why the Operation Cygnus report is still confidential!

  12. Ian B
    June 16, 2023

    ā€œHM Treasury has indemnified any lossesā€

    So as always, when Taxpayer money is used who is accountable and responsible for the management of those that have access to others hard earned money.

    This Conservative Government and their spokesman in this instance Andrew Griffiths is being disingenuous in their response. The Treasury, therefore the Government do not have ā€˜moneyā€™ what they have is a direct access by law to people wallets.

    13 years in Power and this Conservative Government keeps digging deeper into the pockets and hindering all those that are endeavouring to be self sufficient and self reliant and in doing so create wealth for all. This Conservative Government is kicking them in the teeth they are prolific spenders and donā€™t care they give other peoples money with no attachment of accountability or responsibility.

    Its not the fault-line at the BoE, or the Treasury that has to be questioned, it the capability of this Conservative Government to manage for all of us, something we all empowered and pay them for.

    1. Ian B
      June 16, 2023

      Ian B
      Here in Wokingham, the Administration has taken a lead from Government in prolific wasteful spending ā€“ they have invented a ā€˜Climate Emergency Service Manager.

      I kid you not, another department created spending taxpayers money. As always with these things, more office space, more staff, then they have to try to create work to justify the position and jobs. Of course no problem for the Council they just dump the cost on the ā€˜taxpayerā€™

      What ā€˜Climate Emergencyā€™ and what ā€˜servicesā€™ could they offer to mitigate the situation, that are not already in place.? Are Wokingham Council going to instruct China, India and the USA to change their ways? They haven’t even got the money for the pot-holes.

      1. Berkshire Alan
        June 16, 2023

        Ian B
        They have money for pothole repairs, but they are simply either not using much of it at all, or are saving it for other priorities.

        Look at JR’s recent post, on this site on “Local Issues” on pot holes for further comments and explanations..

        1. Ian B
          June 17, 2023

          @Berkshire Alan

          Should a ‘Climate Emergency Service Manager’ be one of them.

          I am aware of Sir John’s comments, I was being sarcastic because they waste our money to provide a virtue signal sound-bite, presumably lead by similar practices in Central Government

      2. Cuibono
        June 16, 2023

        Oh gosh!
        What a 1970s-style sit com that would make!

  13. Magelec
    June 16, 2023

    Presumably the banks experts have very good reasons for acting the way they have. Is there any mechanism of finding out what their, no doubt, very sound reasoning was in taking the actions they have?

    1. Lynn Atkinson
      June 16, 2023

      šŸ˜‚šŸ¤£

    2. Denis+Cooper
      June 16, 2023

      Yep, here is the summary and minutes of the most recent MPC meeting:

      https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2023/may-2023

  14. Winston Smith
    June 16, 2023

    In 2000/2001 Alan Greenspan put the Fed rate up to 6% and crashed world stock markets. Is the Governor of the Bank of England planning something similar, does he think the UK is overheating?

  15. iain gill
    June 16, 2023

    John,

    How about a blog post on the extra cost of living in England versus Scotland?

    I have in mind things like

    – paying for music instrument tuition in schools, free in Scotland, payable in England
    – paying for university, free in Scotland, payable in England
    – paying for prescriptions, free in Scotland, payable in England
    – hospital car parking, free in Scotland, payable in England
    etc etc etc

    Cheers

    1. Cuibono
      June 16, 2023

      Our govt.sā€¦so good at keeping others sweetā€¦
      With our blinking money!!

    2. Berkshire Alan
      June 16, 2023

      Ian

      And the big one, and fear for many, Nursing Care, as I understand it, Free in Scotland.

    3. Lifelogic
      June 16, 2023

      Not even the doctors and staff get free parking in England despite often working shifts and having to come and go at various hours or the day and night.

  16. Denis+Cooper
    June 16, 2023

    Not entirely off topic, I have just sent this letter to our local newspaper, hoping it will be printed next Friday.

    “Five long and wearisome years ago the editor was kind enough to publish my letter starting with these words:

    “As we pass the second anniversary of the EU referendum there is a widespread feeling that our withdrawal from the EU is degenerating into a shambles.”

    (Viewpoint, June 28 2018, “Why lose more than we have ever gained”)

    Because:

    “too many people, including the Prime Minister and most other members of the government and Parliament, have still not shaken off their decades long delusion that EU membership is important for our economy.”

    In particular, I pointed out that:

    “before the referendum the Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, warned us that merely voting to leave the EU would be enough to cause ‘an immediate and profound economic shock’, and tip us into a deep recession, and yet here we are two years later and the UK economy has actually grown by 3.6 percent”

    So now that we are out, how many of the EU’s committed supporters in the UK accept that they were misled over the economic impact of EU membership? Which was always marginal, and probably marginally negative.

    Too few, it seems; even when the EU says “We are proud of our Single Market, which has increased our GDP by 2 percent”, its UK supporters will insist that it must be much more than that, maybe three times as much.

    But even if it was three times as much – the Treasury’s 6 percent rather than the EU’s 2 percent – that one-off GDP bonus should still properly be viewed in the context of the natural growth of the UK economy over time.

    Between 1948 and 2022 UK GDP more than quintupled, at an average rate of 2.3 percent a year, without any clear indication that our participation in the European federal project made any significant difference overall.”

  17. Original Richard
    June 16, 2023

    To understand the decisions and actions of the BoE it is necessary to know Robert Conquest’s second and third laws of politics.

  18. Bert+Young
    June 16, 2023

    The Chancellor has to break his reliance on the guidance of the BoE ; analysis of decisions taken by the BoE show how wrong they have been in the past and what the knock-on dire consequences became to the general public . Sunak has very little time left to restore the confidence he and the Conservatives need ; he must break free from all outside non- elected so called economic bodies .

  19. Denis+Cooper
    June 16, 2023

    From The Times today, headed “Credibility of the Bank of England ”

    “Sir, Juliet Samuel (ā€œMalaise at the Bank should trouble Sunakā€, Jun 15) correctly flags up the Bank of Englandā€™s ā€œfoundering credibilityā€. In other words, is the Bank credible enough to get the job done? If not, inflation will remain stubbornly high and, consequently, interest rates will keep rising. The Bankā€™s policymakers have failed to predict UK inflation accurately because their forecasting models are still trying to figure out how large versus small economic shocks can be accounted for. More worryingly, however, public expectations of inflation are consistently higher than those of the Bank. At present, the public expects inflation to remain at 3 per cent next year and beyond, according to a recent Bank of England/Ipsos survey. That is, the public does not trust the Bank to hit the 2 per cent inflation target. Consequently workers, and rightly so, will keep pushing for higher wages because of the Bankā€™s foundering credibility.
    Professor Costas Milas
    Management School, University of Liverpool”

    But I do not entirely blame the Bank, because the Treasury has stuck with an unrealistic inflation target:

    http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/08/23/my-conservative-home-article-2/#comment-1336748

  20. XY
    June 16, 2023

    I’ve never heard you comment as to whether you believe this is “mere” incompetence or something more sinister, deliberate.

    Is it really possible that they are this daft?

  21. Keith from Leeds
    June 16, 2023

    Could you explain the procedure for sacking Andrew Bailey? It seems while he remains in office, the UK economy will suffer from high inflation & very limited or even negative growth.
    But a better course of action is to sack Jeremy Hunt, the most negative chancellor the UK has ever had. What chance is there of Mr Hunt getting to grips with government spending, cutting it substantially to make room for real tax cuts to stimulate both the economy and the people of the UK.

    1. XY
      June 16, 2023

      I’d quite like to see the back of Bailey and Hunt as well. The former appointed by Sunak, the latter retained by Sunak.

      I have no idea how Truss was persuaded to appoint Hunt, possibly the worst possible choice, I suspect it was along the lines of “To survive we need to unify the party, so a remain candidate for Chancellor. I hear Jeremy would be willing to shoulder the burden”. And Truss, in desperation, fell for it.

    2. Lifelogic
      June 16, 2023

      Zero chance they man is a failed long term Health Sec. who did nothing to reform the dire system and, worse still, he is another PPE graduate!

  22. Ian B
    June 16, 2023

    @Dennis Cooper – ‘So now that we are out’ if only that was true. EU Bureaucrats still have control either directly or through their disciples in the Collective ā€˜Blobā€™. According to this Conservative Government anything to do with the ā€˜managementā€™ of the UK is nothing to do with them.
    We must never forget aided by our UK Parliament this Conservative Government refused to get Brexit Done. The EU is the prime UK Legislator, as the ā€˜Blobā€™ and Parliament refuse to entertain doing what we pay them to do.

  23. Iain gill
    June 16, 2023

    Oh dear water shortage hospipe ban, what a joke this country is.

  24. Mike Wilson
    June 16, 2023

    Could you explain the procedure for sacking Andrew Bailey?

    Dear Bailey

    You are dismissed for failing to achieve your remit of keeping inflation to 2%.

    Do not pass go. Do not collect a massive severance payment and, in accordance with your brutal terms and conditions, your pension is forfeit.

    Yours
    The British People that pay your wages.

  25. Mark
    June 16, 2023

    Presumably this Ā£46bn assumes a level of QT and consequently early crystallisation of losses that will be exaggerated where gilt coupons pay less than current interest rates at various maturities. It is regrettable that the BoE no longer publishes its spreadsheet showing all gilts transactions for the BEAPFF, which would allow remaining losses on the basis of holding to redemption, coupon income and current mark to market value of the portfolio to be easily calculated. Perhaps they could be asked to restore this?

    At one stage there was a model published alongside a BEQB article that allowed various unwinding programmes to be explored alongside some modelling of impacts of and on interest rates. Evidently they run this to produce chart 3 here

    https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/asset-purchase-facility/2023/2023-q1

    which is due for an update before month end. Again, perhaps the model could be published in up to date form. As I read the chart, they are forecasting total losses of about Ā£225bn by 2033 based on current market interest rates and an unclear assumption about the rate of winding up of the fund.

  26. mancunius
    June 16, 2023

    The BoE Governor may claim to be ‘independent’ but seems to interpret ‘independence’ as the unchallenged right to pursue his own personal political strategy. He should be retired forthwith.
    Btw Sir John, should the Tory benches vote on Monday to accept the appallingly biased and inflated report of the Privileges Committee, wholesale voting abstentions at the next GE will completely wipe out the Conservative Party. Labour will take power on less than 20% of the popular vote.

    1. Neil
      June 16, 2023

      Maybe the last-but-one Governor should be invited back for a short extra term as acting Governor. That allows the government to seek someone competent to do the job for a full term.

      Lord (Mervyn) King at least seems to believe in parliamentary democracy. In his 2016 book he seemed to doubt that this is compatible with top-down global organisations having so much influence over our lives.

  27. glen cullen
    June 16, 2023

    Home Office ā€“ 10-15 June 2023
    Illegal Immigrants ā€“ 1,500+
    Boats ā€“ 33+
    ā€¦.Bigger than a British Army brigade/battle group !

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