Too much inflation

Prices rise when too much money chases too few goods and services. As economists would say, when potential demand outstrips supply, prices rise.

The Bank of England has presided over a big expansion of the amount of money and credit available from March 2020 to 2022. There have been supply shortages of energy, food and much else, with a rush to import. We import LNG gas instead of producing more of our own, losing tax revenue and causing more CO2 worldwide as a result. We import too much food, giving grants to farmers  not to grow more instead of boosting our home output. We make it difficult to produce steel, make ceramics and stay in other high energy using businesses, only to import the products we need with more CO 2 produced by the foreign factories as a result.

The government needs to take action to get inflation down. Short term measures include taking VAT off fuel, and raising the VAT threshold for small business  to allow them to expand more quickly. Longer term measures must entail regulatory and tax changes to make and grow more at home, and to produce more domestic energy. Lifting the IR 35 tax on the self employed could regain some of the lost 700,000 self employed of recent years. They will serve us well and generate more taxes of other kinds as a result.

The UK has too few producers.  Now is a good time to flex rules and lower tax rates to free the makers and service providers to do more. Government must help get prices down. The Bank must be careful not to lurch from far too much  money and credit to too little.

 

152 Comments

  1. Peter Gardner
    June 22, 2023

    All excellent suggestions, Sir John. Why doesn’t the Government do them? Underlying all of it is that the Government, the bank or other state institutions don’t know what to do or do the wrong thing. These are the root causes so the real question is how to correct poor government. It comes back, yet again for the umpteenth time, that there is no philosophy of conservative government uniting the Conservative Party. There is a philosophical and therefore also a policy vacuum at its core. The Party doesn’t need an away day to work out some headline grabbing but half baked initiatives as it did with Sunak. It needs a weekend of quiet reflection and thinking.

    1. Mark B
      June 22, 2023

      To answer your question. For them to do so would mean that both Liz Truss MP and Kwasi Kwaterang MP were indeed correct and, there was no need for a coup.

      It was never about what Liz Truss and the government she led got right or wrong, it was about a bunch of self entitled MP’s having their way over the membership and the putting themselves above the needs of the nation.

      Spoilt little brats come to mind.

      1. PeteB
        June 22, 2023

        Peter, Mark,
        Agree with you both. Sir J has made these valid and sensible suggestions for a long time. If the curremt Government was a genuine conservative one with a free market, low tax, capitalist outlook then the actions would already be in play.

        Unfortunately we sit with borrowing at 100% of GDP, a state sector that is at it’s largest for decades and taxes also at decades highs. We’ll also see smarmy Starmer as PM within 2 years. I fear for the UK.

        A proportional representation system may help allow new thinking parties to gain seats and influence the direction of travel…

        1. Lynn Atkinson
          June 22, 2023

          PR is death. The tiny minority call the tune, democracy MUST deliver the majority getting its own way through the ballot box, else it will do so by other means.

          1. Donna
            June 23, 2023

            How is it a majority, under FPTP, when the people who “represent” us in Parliament are elected by the votes of around a quarter of the electorate?

            In 2019, 67% of the electorate voted. The other third didn’t, for whatever reason, but it’s reasonable to assume that many of them don’t bother because they live in a safe seat where the party voted to represent it never changes.

            So that’s only a third of the electorate participating under the FPTP electoral system. Of those participants the winning Not-a-Conservative-Party got 43.6% of the popular vote.

            So now your “majority” has become 43.6% of 67%. Less than half of those who bothered to vote and only around a quarter of the electorate.

            How is that a majority?

            It isn’t. It’s a system which protects the two Establishment Parties (plus the “protest” LibDems and in Scotland, the SNP). What it isn’t is democratic …… representing the Demos.

            Reply Incorrect. Lots of people do not vote in marginal seats.

          2. hefner
            June 23, 2023

            You say it is incorrect. May we have examples of how different the fraction who do not vote in marginal seats is compared to what that fraction is in non marginal seats. I guess you must have some indubitable proof for you to say such a thing. Can you give us some proofs, please.

            Otherwise I will have to think It is your usual way of responding to criticisms, a vacuous statement with very little ‘meat’ behind it, the usual bluster of politicians. Shame on you unable to answer straight questions. What tangible proof that can you bring?

            Reply Show me a marginal with turnout anywhere near 100%!

      2. Ed M
        June 22, 2023

        The problem with this country is much greater than politics.
        The problem is to do with a break-down of traditional (cultural, non-political) Conservative values in general (values such as strong masculinity in families and society in general, strong sense of personal responsibility, strong sense of work ethic, strong sense of patriotism etc).
        And we can only restore these values through other institutions in the country doing their bit to help improve things: The Church of England, Educational establishments, The Arts, The Media.
        Problem is there is too much left-wing / liberal ideology in these institutions.
        Returning to early 1980’s political ideology (like Liz Truss trying to be a new Mrs Thatcher) won’t work. 1) Because the problem now is mainly non-political, not political. 2) The political ideology of Mrs Thatcher was GREAT for the early 1980’s but not for a more advanced economy. And a big price we’ve paid for over-focusing on Mrs Thatcher (in the first part of her premiership when she did a GREAT job dismantling socialism) was the DEMISE OF THE NORTH OF ENGLAND AS AN ECONOMIC POWER HOUSE. So when it comes to economics, we should be focused on how to restore the economy of the north of England (whilst also supporting as much as possible entrepreneurs and others in the High Tech industry). All this is way beyond Liz Truss who is just a parrot. A robot. She has no creative / entrepreneurial-like intelligence when it comes to economic policy and politics in general.

        1. hefner
          June 25, 2023

          Reply to reply: Strange reaction.
          From previous studies of British general elections since the 1970s, it is recognised that only about 15% of seats are decided by fewer than 5% percentage points (the swing voters). Given the importance of these marginals parties are redoubling their efforts there to convince the voters. It also appears that as a consequence voters in these marginals are more likely to be (better?) informed and more likely to turn out to vote.
          Which would appear to contradict your original comment to Donna.

          lse.ac.uk, 30/01/2015 ‘Voters in marginal constituencies know more about parties’ policy positions than those in safe seats’.

      3. Ian B
        June 22, 2023

        @Mark B +1

        So many get it yet the majority of Conservative MP’s have their head in the sand looking for a quiet life until they get booted out- what a sorry excuse for a Party.

      4. Peter Parsons
        June 22, 2023

        The Truss/Kwarteng budget was one of borrowing money and then give it away to people who aren’t the ones most in need, and then crossing their fingers. A study of when Reagan tried the same thing in the 80s shows that, as an approach, it hasn’t worked whenever it’s been tried before. Similar with Trump’s pre-Covid years. The US national debt increased by about 50% in Trump’s first 3 years as President despite him campaigning on cutting it to zero.

        It’s interesting to see how parties of the right criticise parties of the left for borrowing to spend as fiscally irresponsible while they will happily advocate borrowing to give money away to those who are better off.

        1. a-tracy
          June 22, 2023

          Peter, you the government have been giving more money away to those at are worse off?

          Liz Truss has unveiled legislation to reverse the National Insurance hike imposed by Rishi Sunak. Ministers have tabled a Bill to undo the increase to allow British workers to keep more of their money.22 Sept 2022

          The government has announced that families on benefits will be able to claim hundreds of pounds more in childcare payments from the end of June. People on Universal Credit will see their maximum childcare payments rise by nearly 50% from 28 June as the government tries to get more people back into work.31 May 2023
          If you receive welfare benefits such as Universal Credit, Personal Independence Payment, Carer’s Allowance, Income Support, Housing Benefit or Jobseeker’s Allowance, your payments will rise in line with the 10.1% inflation rate.4 Apr 2023

          The new £900 cash boost for eligible means-tested benefits claimants, including those on Universal Credit, Pension Credit and tax credits, starts in Spring and will go direct to bank accounts in three payments over the course of the financial year. There will also be a separate £150 for disabled people and £300 for pensioners on top of their Winter Fuel Payments.

          Exact payment windows will be announced closer to the time, but are spread across a longer period to ensure a consistent support offering throughout the year. They will be broadly as follows:
          £301 – First Cost of Living Payment – during Spring 2023
          £150 – Disability Payment – during Summer 2023
          £300 – Second Cost of Living Payment – during Autumn 2023
          £300 – Pensioner Payment – during Winter 2023/4
          £299 – Third Cost of Living Payment – during Spring 2024
          https://costofliving.redbridge.gov.uk/cost-of-living-payment/#:~:text=Cost%20of%20living%20payment%202022,paid%20automatically%20in%20two%20instalments.

          I can find more of this but don’t want to overwhelm the blog.

        2. Martin in Bristol
          June 22, 2023

          It worked when Lady Thatcher was PM, Peter
          She reduced the punitive top rates of tax and tax revenues and growth increased.
          Experts said it would cost billions.

          1. Peter Parsons
            June 23, 2023

            Tax cuts and spending under Thatcher were underwritten by North Sea oil revenues. Norway put theirs into a sovereign wealth fund, the UK frittered them away. Who made the smarter decision?

        3. Narrow Shoulders
          June 23, 2023

          Given the ridiculously high prices of housing in this country due to money printing, generous benefits and excess people do you advocate allowing even more immigration to constrain the wages if workers who have to pay those housing costs?

      5. glen cullen
        June 22, 2023

        Spot on Mark B

      6. turboterrier
        June 22, 2023

        Mark B
        By George I think you have got it.
        Funny how truth always outs.
        Poer to Ms Truss elbow maybe?

        1. glen cullen
          June 22, 2023

          The Tory party membership voted for Liz, and the Tory parliamentary party voted for Sunak ….just tells you who’s more important !

      7. ignoramus
        June 22, 2023

        Prices are rising because we don’t have enough workers.

        I wonder why?

        Could it be that we have exchanged all our workers from the E.U for refugees and students?

        I do think these refugees and students will eventually contribute to the economy.

        But you can’t say Brexit is not at least partly responsible. Which is fine. We voted for this. Will of the people and all that.

        1. Mark B
          June 22, 2023

          Sorry, but the general consensus is that inflation is down to too much money chasing too fewer good and, the high cost of energy due to various government policies, one being so called renewables.

          1. ignoramus
            June 24, 2023

            Don’t worry. I’m not attacking Brexit or asking for a rerun.

            Just pointing out that we voted for this, so yet again, I don’t see what everyone is complaining about.

    2. Lynn Atkinson
      June 22, 2023

      Every Conservative Association must be free to select whomsoever it considers to be the best candidate to represent them without input from Central Office. Why should the political machine dictate who sits in Parliament?
      Christopher Gill tells of going to see the Party Chairman in Central Office having been selected by Ludlow Constituency, where he lived and had a business, and where he was well known, to INTRODUCE himself!
      The Chairman at that time was Norman Tebbit, that great man said ‘Welcome, what am you do’ and Gill said ‘I’m a butcher.’ Tebbit grinned and asserted that ‘they needed a butcher’.
      Gill was an exemplary, free thinking, un-corruptible Conservative.
      There are as many fish in the sea as ever came out – we just need to REFUSE the Candidates list, increasing the quality of MPs inevitably leads to high quality Government.
      It’s in our hands – stop wringing them and get a spine!

      1. Cuibono
        June 22, 2023

        It seems ( reading back to 2009) that Cameron’s U turn in NOT allowing local political control was about things other than politics. ( I had NO idea!)
        And the Tory party has been paying the price ever since.
        The term “Turnip Taliban” was so offensive and ultimately damaging.
        And the result was possibly this lefty, toothless, directionless party which is about to give us over to goodness know what!

      2. Pat
        June 22, 2023

        Lynn
        You hit the nail on the head with your comment regarding candidate selection. Centralised selection is profoundly anti-democratic and fixing this should be top priority.

        It’s an utter waste of time debating policy in a party whose MPs are, in the main, sleepers who oppose and undermine conservative policies, our kind host being an obvious exception.

        1. turboterrier
          June 22, 2023

          Pat
          Central Office have got a heck of a lot to answer for as does the constituency Chair persons.
          Will there be changes?
          In a word….NO.

        2. Lynn Atkinson
          June 22, 2023

          Our host was never on the Party List. He was selected by his constituency freely. Conservative Selection Committees knew what they were looking for. I was on one that refused Emma Nicholson – I think her 11th refusal! Eventually some poor committee had to accept her because there were only worse than her left in the list!
          Heath did this to the Tory Party, an addition to other destructive things like including Monmouthshire in Wales and the U.K. in the EU!

      3. Ian B
        June 22, 2023

        @Lynn Atkinson agreed. The rot sets in when democracy is shunned and the overriding principle becomes loyalty to a ‘gang’ leader before constituents.

      4. Berkshire Alan
        June 23, 2023

        Agreed

    3. Gabe
      June 22, 2023

      Why indeed does the government not do these sensible things? Also many others like ditch net zero, have a sensible energy policy, deregulated hugely, stop the vast gov. waste and cut & simplify taxes, get fair competition in banking, transport, schools, medicine, universities, stop that wars on landlords, motorists, the self employed…

      ALLISTER HEATH today:-

      Sunak’s catastrophic plan has opened the way for a new populist party.
      High inflation, record debt and broken promises have left millions of voters politically homeless.

      He concludes:- Brexit should have jolted the Tories out of their stupor: they needed to listen to voters more, and absorb and channel the populist impulse into a mainstream, pro-growth Conservative Party dedicated to improving the public’s quality of life. It wasn’t to be. Having debased sterling, over-promised and under-delivered, Sunak’s Tories face electoral annihilation, and have only themselves to blame.

      1. Donna
        June 22, 2023

        Correct. But it isn’t just “Sunak’s Tories” who created this situation. It was Johnson’s Tories as well. He set the Party on the wrong path by obsessing over Net Zero; massively increasing immigration by creating “controls” which were intended to allow pretty-much anyone to come here; and by wrecking the economy (and our civil rights) with the Covid lockdowns.

        I quite enjoyed watching Jacob Rees-Mogg squirm on his GB News show yesterday when his two guests pointed out that by staying in the Cabinet he had supported the destructive policies which have created this situation.

      2. Mickey Taking
        June 22, 2023

        they must listen to voters full stop, They clearly haven’t for some years. Like despot regimes – the inner circle at HQ decide who, what and when. Until the house of cards crashes in an ugly heap.

        1. glen cullen
          June 22, 2023

          Thats almost like saying that they should abide to their manifesto

          1. Mickey Taking
            June 22, 2023

            manifesto? A week later its all forgotten.

  2. Mark B
    June 22, 2023

    Good morning.

    Yes, Sir John we all know, but it is too late mate.

    They will serve us well and generate more taxes of other kinds as a result.

    Leaving the rights and wrongs of IR35 to one side, here is a true story which supports our kind hosts statement above.

    Someone I know worked through as a Personal Service Contractor. Before the new IR35 rules came in, he use to stop near his local train station and buy a coffee and a pastry from a little Eastern European lady who ran a small shop nearby. He put this on expenses – yes it isn’t just you politicians who do it you know 😉

    Post IR35 rules he was offered a permanent position which meant that he had to make economies as he did not have as much disposable cash. So he no longer bought a coffee and a pastry and that Eastern European lady who came here and set up her business no longer gets his patronage. She has lost money with which to support her business. Her suppliers have lost money which supports their business. And so on.

    No here is the thing. Now the Inland Revenue get their full amount of tax which makes them happy but . . . ! Once they get that money, according to agricola (sorry if it wasn’t you mate) of this parish, the money is then destroyed and is therefore no more. That is it – it’s gone !!

    But what if say he had not gone permanent and remained contract ? Well he would have continued as before and the money spent would go to the Eastern European lady who would have spent some on more supplies helping other business and some on wages which I am sure tax, NI and NIC would have been paid. So the Inland Revenue still would have gotten its money, but by a more convoluted route, a route that would have created more jobs, business’s and therefore taxes.

    Rumour has it, Sir John that there maybe a vacancy at Number 11. If so, where does one apply ? 😉

    Reply You do not apply to be Chancellor. The PM chooses who he wants. There is no sign he is about to sack the Chancellor.

    1. Al
      June 22, 2023

      “Reply You do not apply to be Chancellor. The PM chooses who he wants. There is no sign he is about to sack the Chancellor. ” – JR

      Which is a great shame given the current level of fiscal compentence on display. In a company, the shareholders would fire someone who pulled this. In government the voters should, but have neither the means nor a capable alternative candidate.

      From the Conservative party, famed for fiscal compentence, it is a very bad showing indeed.

    2. formula57
      June 22, 2023

      @ Mark B – yes, what we need is a tax system that allows everyone to claim breakfast expenses as a tax deductible item!

    3. Shirley+M
      June 22, 2023

      Of course he will not sack the remainer chancellor, or any other remainer. He satisfies the remainer lobby who still sabotage the well being of our country. Will someone not rid us of the these democracy destroying demons!

    4. Beecee
      June 22, 2023

      It is called the Local Economy, which some politicians and the Civil Service, do not seem to understand what makes it tick.

    5. MFD
      June 22, 2023

      Thats unfortunate! There are many more intelligent than the puppet he chose for the job, also why did he not punish the bank clerks? Do not say they are Independent – they not ! Thats a con that people know really are lies!

    6. Donna
      June 22, 2023

      Very droll Sir John. I very much doubt that Sunak chose Hunt. He was appointed by Truss, remember? And I very much doubt that it was she who actually chose him either.

    7. Mickey Taking
      June 22, 2023

      Shame shame shame !! However, the electorate will sack the PM.

    8. graham1946
      June 22, 2023

      Reply to reply. Therein is the problem, people the PM likes for jobs they are unsuited to. Useless as Health Sec. unless you wanted the NHS run down, useless as Chancellor. This says it all. No need to apply for a job for which you are qualified, the PM decides who he owes favours to. It stinks and needs changing.

    9. Timaction
      June 22, 2023

      …………….the PM chooses. But then who chose him……………….NO ONE OUT HERE in the real world. Everything you say Sir John makes sense to people out here. Unfortunately you are not in charge and are lead by fools, advised by more fools, who have no real life or business experience and between them have made a dogs dinner of all policy areas over the last 13 years. Your Government is not competent in any area. Health provision, education, high taxes, transport, defence, foreign policy and aid, energy generation, net zero and climate religion, immigration both legal and illegal. So Hammond thinks we should have more immigration to get more cheap jobs on top of the 1.2 million you lot imported last year alone to dilute all the health and service provision still further. Whilst paying 5 million to be feckless and idle on benefits. He and others like him are the problem. He should never be allowed the oxygen of publicity by a useless mainstream media. EXPENSIVE ENERGY COSTS ARE KILLING OUR ECONOMY, BUSINESSES AND JOBS, CAUSING INFLATION ON TOP OF MONEY PRINTING. Tory’s need to be destroyed to start to learn that Socialism fails when they run out of other peoples money. We’ve reached that point.

    10. Feadupsouthener
      June 22, 2023

      Reply to reply. Well Sunak is an idiot.

    11. Mark B
      June 22, 2023

      Reply to reply

      I know, I was being mischievous. And I know that you have to give that reply so as not to be seen as the source of any such rumours.

      Good of you to post it, and without any edits.

      Cheers

      😊

  3. Lynn Atkinson
    June 22, 2023

    Not one word out of place.
    Of course the Govt also need to lift the burden from tax-payers by slashing the size of the State. We need those ‘clock-watchers’ in the productive economy but can’t compete with the Government for their service. This goes for healthy benefits recipients too, they can be made ‘fit’ for a job only when they choose between working-and-eating or sleeping-and-starving.
    Another huge saving – £3 billion pa can be achieved by treating all illegal migrants as the Albanians have been treated. They were returned – now 98% fewer are turning up.
    No Government like cutting the state – even the non-producing ‘useless-workers’ as Schwarb should call them, because the whole machine screams about ‘Cuts’. The way to avoid this problem for all Governments is to NOT GROW THE STATE, because they get no credit when they do so.

    1. Cuibono
      June 22, 2023

      Absolutely.
      And strangely enough I have not seen the Albanian “ Gold Standard Deal” ( surely a vote winner?) trumpeted by MSM.
      The wrong sort of news?

    2. Gabe
      June 22, 2023

      even the non-producing ‘useless-workers’

      There are many state sector workers doing far worse than just “useless” many actually do huge positive harm and cause the private sector to be far less efficient and then have to employ large numbers of unproductive workers in compliance with generally insane and misguided rules. Start by scrapping net zero, IR35, HS2, the banking regulations that increase the cost of mortgages and overdrafts (40% often) , the rules that forced pension funds to lend to governments, relax planning…

      1. Lynn Atkinson
        June 22, 2023

        Agreed. The fewer of them the better.

    3. Donna
      June 22, 2023

      They could save £7 million a day by ejecting the criminal migrants from their hotels and shipping them back to France. They could save £billions by stopping the Legal Aid gravy train for the Human Rights Lawyers who are gaming the system for the criminals. They could save £billion a year by stopping the “free money” they get every week. They’re given “free” accommodation, food and healthcare – they don’t need money.

      Most of the electorate would cheer, if they did any of it. But not the hand-wringing “elite” – the likes of Welby – so they don’t do it. Can’t be called “the Nasty Party” by the BBC …… that would never do.

      They haven’t got the WILL to do any of it.

      1. Feadupsouthener
        June 22, 2023

        Correct Donna. I followed some of these illegals who are staying in hotels near us and they ALL bought booze. Nothing else. Just booze. The taxpayer is paying for the rest.

      2. Lynn Atkinson
        June 22, 2023

        Who is the Boss? We are. We can accept aliens into our communities or not. We can sack the Government and must. Repeatedly.

    4. graham1946
      June 22, 2023

      As I understand it, some Albanians were returned, most just disappeared.

  4. Cuibono
    June 22, 2023

    Even I twigged all on my own that the VAT situation is inflationary.
    So surely what with all the counterfeiting ….
    They must have KNOWN?
    Aren’t they actually thinking that a recession might be a good idea?
    Where did they learn their economics?

    1. Gabe
      June 22, 2023

      PPE Oxon mainly it seems for Sunak and Bailey (who read history) are the cause of the inflation with all their money printing, lockdown payments, endless waste and the net zero lunacy…

      1. Cuibono
        June 22, 2023

        +++
        Absolutely!

    2. fishknife
      June 22, 2023

      Truth be told we all know what ails us – the aftermath of too much Socialism, paid for with borrowed money.
      We sold all our Silver (& Gold), we surrendered our birth right, the freedom of Common Law, on a political lie and joined the EU.
      That didn’t solve our profligacy, just let us shift the blame.
      It isn’t going to be solved by the destruction caused by increasing Mortgage Rates, though we may have to to stop a run on the £.
      Decades of spending more than we are earning has to be addressed; a better tool to drain the excess money handed out during Covid might be to increase VAT, then the only pain will be felt by those with cash to spare.

      1. Cuibono
        June 22, 2023

        +++
        Spot on!

    3. glen cullen
      June 22, 2023

      VAT = EU tax system

      1. Donna
        June 22, 2023

        Can’t scrap VAT unless they handover NI to the EU ….. or completely separate NI from the UK.

        That’s what the Windsor Capitulation means.

      2. Cuibono
        June 22, 2023

        +++
        Which I imagine we could have easily relinquished with our “ new found freedoms”?

  5. Michelle
    June 22, 2023

    So CO2 is extremely dangerous, we could cut it by importing less of the things we could produce at home, but we don’t produce just import!! OK I’ve got that..I think. Where’s the CO2 emergency then??
    My wonky logic thinks that’s not very logical.

    1. Gabe
      June 22, 2023

      CO2 is plant food is not remotely dangerous. No recent significant global warming at all plus the things proposed to reduce CO2 wind, solar, walking, heat-pumps, hydrogen, EVs… do not even work in CO2 terms.

    2. MFD
      June 22, 2023

      Nothing Wonky about your logic. Michelle We cannot do without that trace element!

    3. glen cullen
      June 22, 2023

      I agree with your conclusion …what co2 emergency

    4. Timaction
      June 22, 2023

      The CO2 emergency is exported to China who then produce the same goods by dirty coal power stations and export it back to us on dirty diesel ships half way round the world. So we loose the jobs/industry, laughably the CO2 (as its in a separate atmosphere in China) and balance of payments whilst our Government pay 5 million healthy people to sit on their asses. Safe in the knowledge that the 46% will be fleeced more and more to pay for their largesse. All sympathy and no sanctions to the benefit scroungers, none to the taxpaying workers. Just go. We can’t afford the Tory’s before they bankrupt the Country.

  6. Gabe
    June 22, 2023

    Why indeed does the government not do these sensible things? Also many others like ditch net zero, have a sensible energy policy, deregulated hugely, stop the vast gov. waste and cut & simplify taxes, get fair competition in banking, transport, schools, medicine, universities, stop that wars on landlords, motorists, the self employed…

    ALLISTER HEATH today:-

    Sunak’s catastrophic plan has opened the way for a new populist party.
    High inflation, record debt and broken promises have left millions of voters politically homeless.

    He concludes:- Brexit should have jolted the Tories out of their stupor: they needed to listen to voters more, and absorb and channel the populist impulse into a mainstream, pro-growth Conservative Party dedicated to improving the public’s quality of life. It wasn’t to be. Having debased sterling, over-promised and under-delivered, Sunak’s Tories face electoral annihilation, and have only themselves to blame.

    1. Sir Joe Soap
      June 22, 2023

      I think most folk here too have given up with this lot. The only question is how to most easily rid ourselves of this juvenile Snake and his party, then “transition” to a new and proper Conservative Party, more in line with voters’ aspirations.
      Do we need to go through the pain of Starmer and full-on Labour/Libdem actually bankrupting the country (the Libdem doesn’t understand that bailing out mortgagees actually increases interest rates and makes their situation worse)?

      1. Peter Wood
        June 22, 2023

        Yes indeed; WHO ARE we going to vote for?
        My guess is that the contributors here are of a certain age and economic condition, probably not a large constituency. Will we ever see a financially prudent, national interest first, commonsense driven political party again.

        1. Mickey Taking
          June 22, 2023

          enlighten me, when did we have one, I am getting forgetful in my old age.

    2. IanT
      June 22, 2023

      Yes, the Die is Cast

  7. Bloke
    June 22, 2023

    Bring back a Liz Truss!
    Her plans were similarly sensibly arranged for the UK to do better, but her opponents in power blocked progress. The current bozos go wrong in too many ways into much worse.

    1. Sir Joe Soap
      June 22, 2023

      No because a/ a bit crackers and b/she’d be brought down. She’s a pretendy Thatcher and that doesn’t work.
      It needs a more senior, serious and considered person.

    2. Ian B
      June 22, 2023

      @Bloke – Agreed, but that is also the problem making, the ‘Blob’ work and accountable would lead to the same adverse briefing

    3. Mickey Taking
      June 22, 2023

      Perhaps the next Government will invite her to be Chancellor?

    4. Bloke
      June 23, 2023

      Penny Mordaunt could be ‘a Liz Truss’ to the extent that the party membership preferred her to present PM whom MPs alone chose, resulting in the unpopularity and ongoing mess that prevails today.

  8. Bill B.
    June 22, 2023

    You have produced a very convincing policy statement here, Sir John, But for which party?

    1. formula57
      June 22, 2023

      @ Bill B “But for which party?” – one that wishes to win the next General Election.

    2. Ian B
      June 22, 2023

      @Bill B. +1

    3. Gabe
      June 22, 2023

      With FPTP voting no new party can realistically gain any real power. What is needed is a sensible small government, ditch net zero, deregulate hugely, cut taxes and deliver a real Brexit party.

      The Conservative party members need to take power away for the mainly Socialist “fake Tory” MPs and dire Ministers we suffer under. They have got almost nothing right in 13 years even Brexit has been botched so far.

      1. Richard II
        June 22, 2023

        I agree, Gabe, but Conservative party members are sheep. They had the power taken away from them to choose their leader and PM. They barely showed any reaction. If significant change in the Tory strategy is to happen, it will come from a determined and astute senior politician who is currently biding his or her time.

      2. Lynn Atkinson
        June 22, 2023

        Labour did.

  9. Lynn Atkinson
    June 22, 2023

    Energy production at home is even more important because the 11th package of EU Sanctions against Russia (😂🤣) prohibits Russian-made trailers and shuts the last oil branch line delivering Russian oil to Europe, the southern branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline.
    Simultaneously the EU promised to fund 45% of ‘Ukraine‘s needs until 2027’ – €50 billion
    In France and Germany food consumption has dropped by 15%. The graph is unbelievable – I wish I could post it.

    1. Mickey Taking
      June 22, 2023

      Not consumption – buying less therefore wasting less.
      Who is going hungry?
      We are all doing it unless we are lucky to be in the new UK elite, who can waste without thought, buying EVs, heating swimming pools in the estate garden. Private jet to friends luxury holiday home. Different world.

  10. DOM
    June 22, 2023

    None of this is inadvertent but can you imagine what the Globalists will be able to do when they can control how, when and upon what you spend their money?

    The totalitarian evil that is CBDC’s will allow the authorities to control inflation very easily and with total precision

    John enjoys financial topics to peruse over then maybe he can enlighten his readers with his thoughts on the totalitarian evil of CBDC?

    I predict that governments will fall if they try this experiment in precision authoritarianism

    ps My father was down the pit on 100p per week and retired as a welder at the age of 67 after working 47 weeks of the year, every year for decades. No special celebrations for him and my mum who cleaned shit up off floors for decades. Maybe they just don’t tick the progressive box

  11. Javelin
    June 22, 2023

    The people say more nationalism we want to be self sufficient and not ruled by globalists. Globalists refuse to reverse globalism causing our inflation to rise.

  12. Clough
    June 22, 2023

    I see that your government is now presiding over national debt that exceeds our GDP. I wonder what Mrs T would make of it if she could come back. Being an old-fashioned sort of chap, I also wonder how that debt is going to be paid off. Or are we now in a world where it doesn’t matter how much debt you have?

    1. Lynn Atkinson
      June 22, 2023

      It doesn’t matter until Settlement Day.

  13. G
    June 22, 2023

    Exactly! Supply side reforms. As advocated by Minford/Truss. A far superior approach.

  14. Gabe
    June 22, 2023

    Sunak seems very determined to help Starmer to beat Blair’s 179 seat majority.

    It seems rather unlikely he will even deliver on any of his five rather pathetic promises “to halve inflation, bring down NHS waiting lists, grow the economy, stop the boats or make sure our national debt is falling.”

  15. Shirley+M
    June 22, 2023

    Give the EU a choice of two paths, and they will invariably choose the wrong one. Where the citizens are concerned.

    The same can now be applied to all the main UK parties! In fact the UK government is worse, for sticking to net zero 2030 where destruction of trade is inevitable.

    Make the most of it. I rarely put EU before UK.

  16. Winston Smith
    June 22, 2023

    The Supermarket model relies on importing out of season food to keep footfall up and until you can convince the shopper to eat UK produce in season then the foolishness of flying in food from around the world will continue.
    No doubt The Treasury is continually lobbied by the Supermarkets to continue with importing food and minimising home grown foods to support their business model otherwise they would have to regress to selling only in season UK produced foods which would loose them revenue and allow the return of high street shops that could flourish on locally produced food. Once again the UK would be the land of the small shop owner.

  17. agricola
    June 22, 2023

    Thank you for your efforts, but nobody in government is listening. They are lamped rabbits awaiting extinction. The opposition in power would be even more useless. I just hope to hell that Reform have a plan and can time an invasion of the centres of power to be able to effect fundamental change. Every institution we have is disfunctional. The current two party system is streaked with corruption and fundamentally undemocratic. Until someone with vision can gain power and put a D10 through the whole rotter edifice there will be no resolution. Sad to see what a small number of malign idiots can do to a once great countrg.

  18. Donna
    June 22, 2023

    If Sunak and Hunt were going to listen to your eminently sensible suggestions Sir John, they’d have done it by now. The fact that they appear to be Keeping Calm and Carrying On with their lunatic policies, which have created this perfect storm can only be because they are following Orders – and the Orders haven’t changed.

    The Not-a-Conservative-Party has increased the National Debt to over £2 trillion; we have higher inflation than the USA, Australia, Canada, NZ and the EU area; and with record levels of immigration and a shortage of houses, they’re now killing the housing market.

    There’s not much point Sunak making plans for the long-term. The next election is going to be an extinction-level event for the Not-a-Conservative-Party.

  19. Ed M
    June 22, 2023

    And we can talk ’til the cows come home about politics. But the main problem is that we lack a strong leader / leadership in the Tory Party.
    A strong leader with entrepreneurial-like / proper business leadership experience to lead this country.
    How do we find such a leader / leadership? I don’t know. But this should easily be the most important thing to discuss at the very beginning of the next Tory Conference and what Tories should be talking about again and again in the media / on TV etc ..
    (Part of the problem is that we have an aggressive media who are rotten to politicians – not in any proper objective sense but purely to sell papers etc and often from posh, rebellious, ‘anti-establishment’ backgrounds (/ champagne socialists / liberals). So the first thing we have to try and do is sort that out. That would make politics a lot more attractive to people with real business experience and now want to go into politics).
    If we don’t have this discussion – NOW – we’re just going to end up with journalists / lawyers / PR people / people with low-grade business experience running the country.

    1. Timaction
      June 22, 2023

      A strong leader. Snake couldn’t knock the skin off of a rice pudding. Can you imagine him debating Sir Nigel with the gloves off? It would be declared a walkover.
      It’s time for Patriots to make a stand or stand aside. We’re drowning in debt with the highest taxes ever ffs. There is no greater incompetence than 5 million workshy being given precedence over English taxpayers, or legal and illegal immigrants greater entitlements to English taxpayers. I watched an Arab non speaking man in my wifes Doctors surgery demanding medical services from a scared receptionist today. Imagine if I did the same in his Country having contributed nothing!! I could easily have been arrested if I had been bold enough to tell him what everyone was thinking. Your Party have done this to us. Be gone.

  20. J+M
    June 22, 2023

    Repeal the idiotic Ed Milliband Climate Change Act, the most self-harming piece of legislation ever passed by our Parliament.

    1. MFD
      June 22, 2023

      Well said J+M until that is done nobody will believe politicians are supporting the resurrection of Great Britain

    2. Donna
      June 22, 2023

      Absolutely. But the WEF says NO and the Eco Nutters in Parliament are doing what they want – not what’s good for the British people.
      Their objective is to get 75% of private cars (petrol/diesel AND EV) off the road…. permanently.

  21. Jude
    June 22, 2023

    This is not rocket science, John. It’s just basic common sense. So, why are the BoE, the Treasury & Government acting to destroy GB. Rather than take every opportunity to improve our countries growth & stature in the world. Shall I hazard a guess?? The influence of unelected bodies like WEF & IMF? It’s utterly pathetic our democracy is being governed by destructive policies from questionable sources!

  22. Donna
    June 22, 2023

    And here’s Hammond’s suggestion – the Chancellor who did everything he could to prevent Brexit being delivered:

    “Lord Hammond, who led the Treasury under Theresa May, said the Government has to strike a “balance” between the “politically toxic” increase in immigration with the impact of rising mortgage rates. Relaxing immigration could help deal with record rises in wages across Britain by creating more competition for jobs and lowering workers’ ability to push for pay increases.”

    Basically, he suggests that low paid workers must be driven even further into penury so that Sunak can claim he has hit his target of halving inflation. And never mind the impact on “the housing crisis – or anything else.”

  23. Antz
    June 22, 2023

    Somebody posted give military training to illegals in army camps !
    This is not a good idea. Think about it.
    also
    All this talk of parties R/L etc is tiresome.
    It’s Global.

    1. MFD
      June 22, 2023

      I would suggest ANTZ that they are already military trained – an army within just waiting for the nod from the enemies of Britain in the WEF!

    2. agricola
      June 22, 2023

      Antz
      Not military training but basic training. Everything at the double, wake at six, cold showers, 2 mile run, breakfast, billet cleaning, inspections, digging trenches, filling them in, assault course, lunch, 2 mile run, cold shower, parade ground for two hours/ square bashing, etc etc. Those of a certain age will recall it with affection.
      Anyone dropping out takes the first plane home to spread the message, boat crossings dry up.

  24. glen cullen
    June 22, 2023

    What of push inflation caused by the government policy of net-zero, which has increased the costs of manufacture, delivery and investment across every sector …monetary policy alone and the increase of interest rates won’t solve the problem while increasing costs of net-zero remains

  25. glen cullen
    June 22, 2023

    Is our economy worst under Sunak than Liz ….anyone else noticed, along with other sectors, that the banking sector has been tanking this past month on the stock-exchange ….safe hands my arse

  26. Lindsay+McDougall
    June 22, 2023

    During the remainder of this year, a million fixed rate mortgages will come to an end and will need to be renewed at higher interest rates. For this reason, the existing base rate rise may already be sufficient. As always with the post WW2 UK economy, the action taken is too much too late.

  27. Ian B
    June 22, 2023

    Sir John
    This mornings contribution says it all. The problem, a Conservative Government in a state of refusal to manage, refusal to care. You could even say a Conservative Government that will destroy, will use UK hard earned money to support those they personally wish to suck up to at the expense of UK jobs in foreign domains, while destroying UK wealth and sustainability.

    Who chose the Government, it wasn’t the UK people, the electorate. Some say it was the collective ‘Blob’ in fear of their loss of power that has got us where we are. Then of course they were aided by the Conservative MP’s that just wanted a quiet life. The Conservative Party, is nowhere to be seen keeping quiet and hope no one notices that as such by default they aid the crippling of the UK.

    Given the State the Country is in after 13 years of no support for the UK electorate, the removal of UK producers, the import only policy and so on, would any other party be much different. Some try to whip up the fear of the numpties in other parties, but as it is the unelected collective ‘Blob’ that appears to be in charge, has subdued Parliament what is the point of us electing MP’s – would anything be ant different?

  28. Ian B
    June 22, 2023

    Sir John – reading and agreeing with your summation this morning, I also noted from the comments that everyone else ‘get’s it’. The only conclusion that can be offered from so much overwhelming ‘logic’ is that those that have stolen the power to run the Country are either total ‘thick’ or have an agenda to maliciously destroy the UK. I know which option I am leaning to.

    1. Feadupsouthener
      June 22, 2023

      Me too Ian

  29. Original Richard
    June 22, 2023

    “There have been supply shortages of energy, food and much else, with a rush to import.”

    This is all deliberate policy, not a mistake.

    In order for Net Zero to “Build Back Greener” the original system must first be destroyed.

    The giveaway was when our PM, then Chancellor, said at COP26 :
    “So our third action is to rewire the entire global financial system for Net Zero.”

    1. glen cullen
      June 22, 2023

      Agree
      Also note – ‘The Summit for a New Global Financial Pact’ starts today in France ….global elites making policy again without the peoples consent

  30. graham1946
    June 22, 2023

    ‘Prices rise when too much money chases too few goods and services’

    Where is all this money sloshing around? Where are all the shortages of goods? Who has it – certainly not the working man who struggles to pay his bills and of course we have the obscene sight of food banks in a supposedly first world country. I’d say this round of inflation was a result of too much greed – started by the oil gas and electricity producers who made record profits and were shocked to receive a windfall tax. The war was just the excuse – the market makers simply decided to make more money, that’s all, there never was a shortage. This pushed up the price of everything, and the price gougers again decided to jump on the nicely provided bandwagon. 13 interest rate rises, not working so they go for more today which could cause a recession and people losing their hard earned houses. Have they never heard of Einstein? We need proper people in the government and Bank of England jobs, not just the ‘group thinkers’ and old pals like we have had for the last 13 years.

  31. Kenneth
    June 22, 2023

    A real Conservative government would never have let this happen.

    Some cabinet members, including the Prime Minister and several Conservative MPs need to have the whip removed from them.

    Let them go independant or join (or start) another political party.

  32. Keith from Leeds
    June 22, 2023

    An excellent article, but what use is it when the PM & Chancellor don’t listen? Do you ever have a one-to-one conversation with them to explain what needs to be done? If so, why do they take no notice? Are they just thick? While I agree 100% with your comments, I think the biggest problem is the cost of government. The Civil Service has been allowed to grow with no control, & is out of control. Start by making 80% of Civil Servants redundant, cut out the waste in government spending, & there is room for sensible tax cuts. But, first & foremost, stop spending money we have not got!!!!

  33. forthurst
    June 22, 2023

    The purpose of IR35 was to stop employed people like computer programmers claiming to be self-employed when they were travelling to a normal place of work every day and sitting next to an employed programmer doing similar work. 700,000 were not lost to the world of work; they were lost to a tax avoidance scam.

    The Tories need to avoid populist schemes designed to give some people freebies like council houses at a third of their value and some people a tax avoidance scheme like self-employed status for employed persons. They need to focus on not wasting tax-payers’ money on subsidising employers’ wages and ensure that no-one is better off living partly or wholly off benefits than going to work full time. They also need to stop deliberately making energy supplies expensive and unreliable and wasting money on warmongering on behalf of a one party extreme right wing state that is not a member of NATO. They need to do sensible things for a change to enable a reduction in the tax burden for all.

  34. Bert+Young
    June 22, 2023

    The present economic situation we face is devastating for everyone – rich and poor . Bringing down inflation is important but how it is managed is equally important . When industry and commerce are handicapped employment suffers and the consequences are widely felt in all corners of our lives . I have little faith in our Government top management and change must be forced upon it .

  35. APL
    June 22, 2023

    JR: “Prices rise when too much money chases too few goods and services. ”

    False.

    The cost of produce rises when the government ( who claims the right to manage the money supply ) has printed too much money, causing the value of the currency unit to decline, result? One has to find more of the devalued currency unit, to buy any given good.

    By the way, the government has considered it acceptable to devalue the currency by 3% each year for the several decades. Since 1913, Sterling has been devalued by 98%.

    The problem today, as a result of the Tory government increasing the money supply by 500% in 2020/2021, devaluation of the currency has increased above the threshold where, even if you are not paying attention, you are forced to notice it.

    JR: “There have been supply shortages of energy, food and much else, with a rush to import.”

    Self inflicted shortages. Successive governments have meddled in the Energy sector, first the Tories rushed to Gas fired power stations, then Labour followed, and in the last decade the Tories again have failed to correct the failed energy policies of the last thirty years.

    Energy, underpins everything in any economy. Cheap energy, makes for a prosperous economy. Failure of the government to make provision for cheap diversified plentiful energy will ruin Britain.

    Then food: Instead of incentivising farmers to produce more food, they are still paying ‘setaside’ grants and building on arable land to accommodate the extraordinary increase in the population, which the government pays only lip-service to stemming.

    Finally, sanctions on Russia, a producer of a great deal of raw materials. Fertilizers, Oil, Gas, etc.

    If somebody in Parliament would give a damn, they’d get off their backsides and wrest control from the WEF, UN & the EU. That was, after all, the expectation of Brexit. But, it seems, they are too fat, and too privileged to care.

    1. APL
      June 22, 2023

      “has printed too much money”

      By the way, printing too much money, is called counterfeiting when anyone but the government does it. Otherwise they call it Quantitative easing.

  36. Richard
    June 22, 2023

    Sir John

    Our chancellor said that raising interest rates was the only thing that could be done to bring down inflation.

    I’m disgusted with this government.

    1. Ian B
      June 22, 2023

      @Richard Yup, according to our 2 Chancellors higher interest rates creating higher costs, just as with higher taxes are the only way forward. I think they mean the only way to bankrupt the UK

      1. Mickey Taking
        June 22, 2023

        and what a fine job they are doing…objective in sight.

    2. Donna
      June 22, 2023

      “Our” Chancellor thereby demonstrated his complete lack of economic knowledge or how to manage an economy.

      Not fit for purpose …. just like the rest of the Not-a-Conservative-Party.

  37. Mike Wilson
    June 22, 2023

    I’m struggling to understand how raising interest rates is going to do anything other than make life for the younger generation impossible.

    You think prices are rising because of demand?

    I’m sure young people would rather have their food bill of £100 go up to £110 rather than their mortgage going up by £700 a month.

    1. Ian B
      June 22, 2023

      @Mike Wilson Ah, but Mike raising interest rates, causes costs to rise, that then adds to inflation so people reasionable want to be paid more. Higher wages creates higher cost therefore higher prices we have to pay. Our 2 Chancellors dont see it that way, they dont have anything to do with the problem. As they keep telling us it is us that is the problem and we must have higher taxes so as to cause inflation to drop – go figure.

  38. a-tracy
    June 22, 2023

    So if interest rates are being put up to stop spending, why don’t the bank and your government tell us precisely what you want us to stop spending on?

    I would imagine you want us to carry on buying British goods. British fish, cheese, butter, bread, wheat, barley, oats, potatoes, sugar beets, and livestock. If we had a big Buy British marketing campaign, could it save our kids from more than 5% inflation rises to stop us all from buying imports?

    1. APL
      June 23, 2023

      a-tracy: “why don’t the bank and your government tell us precisely what you want us to stop spending on?”

      They have, they want you to stop spending on Meat, milk, eggs, grain, petrol, electricity, gas, and any discretionary items you can still afford after your energy costs have increased by 300% in the last two years.

      They want you to buy processed locusts.

  39. ukretired123
    June 22, 2023

    I always read Sir John’s daily take on what lies ahead as he sees many things other lesser mortals have no idea nor his insightful experience to match.
    On inflation he has forecast this time and time again but the government and Bank ignore him to their peril and have painted themselves into a corner between a rock and a hard place.

  40. Original Richard
    June 22, 2023

    “The government needs to take action to get inflation down.”

    If by “government” it is meant our elected representatives in Parliament, then it’s not going to happen.

    We’re no longer a democracy, voting only fills the HoC, with a uniparty who agree on all the big issues such as mass immigration, Net Zero, increased state control and spending without ever allowing the voters a referendum to obtain a mandate for their economy destroying policies.

    They use the BBC like an old style Soviet propaganda agitprop to promote CAGW scare stories and hence the need for their draconian Net Zero policy.

    They hide away from voter censure by empowering bureaucrats in the form of Civil Servants, quangos, regulators and all manner of NGOs and institutions to carry out their real plans.

    So the CCC and DES&NZ run our energy, the Treasury & BoE run our finances, the judges and lawyers through the HRA make our laws, the rebellious Home Office in conjunction with HR lawyers and charities run our immigration system and so on.

  41. ChrisS
    June 22, 2023

    Bailey and his committee of sycophants have lurched firmly towards driving us into recession with a full half point rate rise. I see that two non-comforming members voted for no rate rise at all and I’m quite sure they were the ones in the right.

    It surely is now time for Bailey to be replaced. I heard your interview on the World At One in which you pulled your punches over his future. But he has been an unmitigated disaster ( as he was at the FSA ) and his forecasts have been hopeless.

    How can anyone have confidence in him ?

    On a wider point, there must be other ways of taming inflation other than the catch-all method of putting up interest rates. Surely the aim is to reduce consumption, so giving voter’s hard-earned money to banks cannot be a good idea? There have to be alternatives.

    In any event, there is ample proof that taking people’s money does not dampen inflation. Energy bills went sky high throughout the winter which should have provided all the dampening necessary. Clearly it did not reduce inflation, so driving up mortgage rates, threatening the very homes over people’s heads cannot possibly be the answer ?

    If the myopic Chancellor and Bailey cannot think of anything else, perhaps they should get employers to take more money from working people’s wages and compulsorily putting it into their pension pot as a temporary measure. That at least would mean that they retain the money for themselves for the future rather than enrich bank shareholders ?

    1. The Prangwizard
      June 22, 2023

      I saw him on GBNews when he also dodged the question about removing Bailey. All the rest he said was welcome. He never has the courage though to say a failure should be replaced. Far too risky for his reputation and he always dodges. That’s a grave weakness – otherwise he would have more support. I’m sure he thinks his morality is superior to that of everyone else.

      Even if Bailey or any other failure were to do things ten times as bad as they do now and totally wreck our country, Sir John would still no doubt say as now only that he or those responsible should be persuaded to change.

      Reply Do stop moaning. If I called on government to sack the Governor neither the Bank nor the government would listen to any of my substantial criticisms of current policy. The government has no intention of sacking him. There is now a chance of reform.

      1. graham1946
        June 23, 2023

        Replace the ‘now’ in your last sentence with ‘no’ and we might believe you

  42. Roy Grainger
    June 22, 2023

    As a saver I have been subsidising mortgage holders for years via near-zero rates. Now it’s payback time.

  43. Derek
    June 22, 2023

    Should those who presided over the expansion of money in this country now do the decent thing and resign from office? They would do, if they were decent people. But!!!!!

    Why can’t they step aside and allow others more knowledgeable and more professional to take their places. Does egotism and fear of loss of face still rule within the Public Sector?

  44. Denis+Cooper
    June 22, 2023

    Entirely off topic but no doubt of interest to many:

    “On Question Time tonight, Fiona will be joined by John Redwood, Jenny Chapman, Ben Habib, Anand Menon and Alastair Campbell. Join us and an audience in Clacton-on-Sea for a Brexit special on @BBCiPlayer at 8pm and @BBCOne after the 10 o’clock news”

    Ben Habib has told me that he will try to raise the subject of the Northern Ireland Protocol/Windsor Framework, and I hope that he will emphasise that the technical correct solution would have been export controls on goods to be carried overland into the Irish Republic, EU territory, enforced through a system of export licences.

    In a recent article:

    https://ukandeu.ac.uk/how-much-has-brexit-cost-the-uk-economy/

    Professor Jonathan Portes wrote:

    “my central view remains that the best estimate of the negative impact on Brexit on UK GDP is 2-3% of GDP”

    and in an email his colleague Anand Menon also homed in on that range, and I could go along with that without a huge argument because it is actually what the EU Commission has also estimated, but I would suggest that it is at or just below the bottom end of their range and the erosion of growth will be spread over some years and has not all happened already, and I come back to the trend growth rate having been 2.3% a year since the war and our participation in the federal European project having had only a marginal economic impact.

    1. Donna
      June 22, 2023

      I hope Sir John reports on this because I have a policy of watching nothing on the BBC …. or anything that involves the Dodgy Dossier creator, Alistair Campbell.

  45. Ian B
    June 22, 2023

    From the Media

    ‘Andrew Bailey has said pay cannot keep rising at its current pace if people want inflation and borrowing costs to fall after the Bank of England pushed interest rates to 5pc.
    Also today, the Governor said: “We’ve got to get and we will get inflation back to its target.”‘

    But, Mr Bailey please note pay will keep rising all the time you and your 2 Chancellors keep raising the costs of just existing. If you and they got to grips and did your jobs and just manage, and not make speeches about nothing, the situation would have been resolved long ago. You need to look in the mirror to see the problem and stop blaming others

    1. Ian B
      June 22, 2023

      @Ian B – then elsewhere in the Media –
      “We are all paying a terrible price for the Bank of England’s mistakes”
      And so on
      “This will therefore encourage fears that labour shortages are fuelling a “wage-price spiral”, where businesses pass on higher labour costs to their customers, who in turn demand higher wages from their own employers.”
      And so on
      “Indeed, the big increase in the national minimum wage in April will have had a particularly large impact on costs in the hospitality sector. It is surely no coincidence either that April saw a large uprating in state benefits.”

      Everyone sees it, but those paid and empowered to manage.

      Some one needs to wake up and smell the coffee

      1. Mickey Taking
        June 22, 2023

        ‘Some one needs to wake up and smell the coffee’
        I think its too expensive now.

    2. Ian B
      June 22, 2023

      @Ian B

      The Media is all over this
      “BoE is like a mad dog chasing its tail – 0.5% rate hike will come back to bite us all”
      “So the Bank of England went for it. After hiking base rates by 25 basis points 12 times in a row, it doubled down with today’s 0.5 percent belter. I’d be impressed, if I wasn’t so terrified.”
      “The bank is clearly trying to engineer a recession, as it sees this is the only way to defeat today’s inflation monster.”
      “In doing so, Bailey is using a generation of homebuyers as cannon fodder, mostly younger buyers who jumped on the ladder when base rates were close to zero and BoE forward guidance suggested they would stay there.”

      And those that ‘Manage’ the Country, Mr Bailey? , gone missing as usual out and about preening personal self esteem and ego.

  46. G
    June 22, 2023

    Just heard the PM speaking. Did anyone else hear a bit of David Brent creeping in? Hilarious!

  47. Barbara+Fairweather
    June 22, 2023

    We did a trip across the Cotswolds recently and were appalled that there were no sheep or cows grazing in the fields
    Many fields empty , not ploughed or growing crops . Just buttercups
    This agricultural policy of not growing or raising cattle for food and the farmers being paid for leaving everything fallow seems crazy to me
    Can you bring this up in Parliament John?
    What is going on?

    1. Donna
      June 22, 2023

      Net Zero. And the WEF’s plans to change farming …. with no democratic mandate whatsoever. In the Netherlands and Ireland the Government intend to cull thousands of cattle and to drive farmers off the land completely.
      https://www.weforum.org/communities/100-million-farmers

    2. glen cullen
      June 22, 2023

      Less agriculture means less CO2 …that’s the net-zero plan, just look at the Netherlands
      Its also crazy to me that we pay farmers to produce nothing

      1. Mickey Taking
        June 22, 2023

        eventually pay them retirement, and we go hungry, cold and in the dark.

  48. Mike+Wilson
    June 22, 2023

    Wow, so up by half a percent! 18 months ago the bank base rate was an utterly ludicrous 0.1%! Up by 5 times what it was 18 months ago in one step and, over the last 18 months, increased by 5000%!

    Have we got a bunch of lunatics in charge at the Bank of England and in the government. Why isn’t a more moderate approach being taken? I presume the housing market will now actually collapse. There will be no first time buyers able to afford the massive mortgages needed to buy at the current inflated asking prices. As always it will take a while but, well done Mr. Redwood and colleagues, the housing market should be in freefall by the time of the next election.

    And, in terms of seeing the effect of the recent base rate rises, why not wait until the effect is felt of millions of people coming off low rate mortgage fixes over the next year or two.

    As I said earlier – much better for your food bill to go up by 10% than your mortgage going up by 100% or more.
    Energy prices have come down a bit, petrol prices have come down a bit – what the hell is in the ‘inflation basket’ that is telling the idiots at the Bank of England that inflation is still high?

  49. John O'Leary
    June 22, 2023

    I understand you are appearing on Brexit Question Time Special this evening and up against Alastair Campbell. May I wish you every success and I hope you politically slaughter him.

  50. Feadupsouthener
    June 22, 2023

    It’s obvious where this country is heading and it’s not good. No matter which of the useless 3 main parties get in next time it will continue on a downward spiral. Net zero is our biggest problem together with those not wanting to work and getting as much as some workers flogging themselves to death. It’s the dumbo pair, Sunak and Hunt that are to blame along with the plonked is the BOE. I despair. Why they cannot see the damage they are doing together with the rest of the idiots in your party is beyond me. We will all end up with nothing……but according to the WEF we’ll be happy.

  51. glen cullen
    June 22, 2023

    Home Office – 21 June 2023
    Illegal Immigrants – 83
    Boats – 2

  52. Will in Hampshire
    June 22, 2023

    There is a second way by which this country might maintain its commitment to net zero and restore domestic productive industries like steel and agriculture. Now that the government is free to determine its own trade policy (a result of Brexit) tariffs on these imports could be raised substantially so that it’s no longer economic for importers to meet demand for these goods, and – hey presto – manufacturers in this country would have clear market space in which to operate low-carbon or zero-carbon businesses.

  53. Will in Hampshire
    June 22, 2023

    Isn’t it possible that by raising tariffs on imports the government can get the best of both worlds – zero-carbon or low-carbon businesses employing workers in this country to produce the steel and agricultural produce that people need, without importers under-cutting them on price?
    Seems like a sensible way to proceed, and one enabled by Brexit.

  54. paul cuthbertson
    June 22, 2023

    JR – Some of us are awake even if you purport to be so. Therefore can we please refrain from the continuous reference to the Globalist CO2 net zero BS.

  55. Linda Brown
    June 24, 2023

    I thought VAT was an EU tax so what are we doing still enforcing it in GB? Am I wrong on this? All taxes should be reduced to encourage people to spend their money as they wish. Energy prices have been a stitch up as far as I am concerned and keep handing tax payers money out to everyone which is what Government has done is not solving the problem. In fact. probably will make it worse as the 80% payouts to stay at home in the pandemic and meals for everyone have done. What nonsense by a man who obviously has never had to budget his money. If anything encouraged people to be lazy and want to stay at home permanently the ‘pay to stay at home’ did. Can’t anyone give Mrs Thatcher’s rules out to all newcomers into Parliament and tell them to read them, whatever their politics, and try to learn something about balancing the books? Or, better where is another shop keepers child ready to rule us?

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