The recent revisions to the ONS GDP and national income figures for recent years show they do not know what has happened to our economy. It is good news the UK has leapt from bottom to third from top amongst G 7 nations for post pandemic growth. It is worrying the figures for the outturn alter so much. It makes it even harder for those trying to forecast what might happen next.
Meanwhile the OBR has regularly overstated the deficit for the immediate year by more than ÂŁ100 bn .The Bank of England forecast inflation staying at 2% as it rose to 11%. It then said the rise would be short lived yet we are still way over target.
Despite this inability of these 3 bodies to tell us what has happened and  what will happen next, the  government remains wedded to tax and spend policies based on these inaccurate numbers. Worse still it accepts as the main  guide on whether tax cuts can be afforded the OBR forecast of the deficit in five years time. No one can forecast that accurately as who knows what world growth will be in five years time, who will be President of the USA or Chairman of the Fed or what their policies will be. To ask the OBR to get that right when they cannot get the current  year right and  then to rely on it as if it were right to a  few billions is absurd. The OBR task is made more difficult by past ONS understatements of GDP and therefore of productivity as these figures matter for the 5 year forecast . If you cannot rely on the Bank forecast of inflation you cannot know whether the Bank in 5 years time will need high rates to cut another inflation it has caused, or need low rates to end a recession it has brought on.
So what needs doing? All 3 forecasting and retro casting official bodies need to be asked to revise their models until they can predict and define the past more accurately . They need to back test their models and agree how to compute outturns.
The government needs to get rid of the 5 year deficit target. It should steer the economy with a 2% inflation target and a 2% growth target.  It should use forecasting models with a better track record than the OBR, and make judgements taking into account  money and credit conditions and allowing for how growth boosts tax revenues and can be boosted by lower tax rates. It should stop making tax the only flexible part of the package  and see the importance of better spending controls and priorities to good outcomes.
September 3, 2023
We could always have some proper Conservative policies, like admitting that individuals achieve far greater efficiency and quality per pound spent when they control the spend themselves, than when the state spends money on their behalf. This also introduces feedback loops which force providers of goods and services to constantly optimise and innovate, which generates far more efficient economy than top down state control ever can. And this extra efficiency allows a bigger share for all. Lots of the overly large and complex public sector could be simplified and disbanded, saving money. And lots of money could be reprioritised to help the British people.
September 3, 2023
Indeed, much of what the government does with our taxes not only does nothing positive it does net harm.
Milton Friedman correctly noted that there are four ways to spend money:-
Spending your own money on yourself. For example, buying groceries or lunch. …
Spending your own money on someone else. …
Spending someone else’s money on yourself. …
Spending someone else’s money on someone else.
The last one is the least efficient the first most efficient and that is government. They care not what they pay (not their money) nor what value (if any) the public received. Often it is spent on lies or political propaganda or attempted vote buying too. Or as we see with Kahn buying âscienceâ to justify new taxes!
September 3, 2023
â So what needs doing? All 3 forecasting and retro casting official bodies need to be asked to revise their models until they can predict and define the past more accurately . They need to back test their models and agree how to compute outturns.â
So, apart from criticism on this site and elsewhere, no penalties ?
No good. Must try harder ?
What happens if their revised models also get things wrong?
The only action taken was defenestration for Liz Truss for failing to consult one of these bodies.
September 3, 2023
Okay JR, you have shown them to be utterly wrong in their role and function. Therefore serving no purpose. In fact causing a detriment to UK economy and UK economic forecasting. They were invented by govt so why not get rid of them, bring BOE under direct control of govt and Treasury as before? Is your party and govt scared of responsibility?
The two bodies appear to have key Labour supporters within them that we are expected to believe have no bearing on their forecasts, modelling or finger in the air guessing. Why is it tolerated? Why is it tolerated to having family members related to Labour in No.10?
Trussâs mistake as I recall was she failed to say what spending cuts would be made to finance tax cuts. A huge basic mistake for a PM and former Treasury minister.
September 3, 2023
A caring government which helped people out when they need it would be fine, we all contribute according to ability and get out at times of need, but that has got to be primarily for the British people, and treat those who have paid in better than those who choose never to. The state should not be owning and running providers of delivery, they are incapable of doing that well, they should concentrate on providing money to those in need, and keeping out of the way of everyone else.
September 3, 2023
Ian,
If this gutless bunch called Tories farm out responsibility for economy/economic forecasting to EU remaining left wing arm of Labour what do they expect!! Moreover, what does JR expect? His party and govt could follow his sage advice, but there is not a chance in hell it will do so. The country might be more competitive than the EU or show Brexit a success. Uni party EU loving Globalists Sunak and Hunt types will not have that.
JR and chums needs to put leavers back in charge in govt. and deliver on 2019 manifesto.
September 3, 2023
The worst example is borrowing money to spray it around in other countries.
September 3, 2023
Or unasked, encouraging sprayees into a totally unrelated country and really letting rip with the sprayer.
HonestlyâŠthe things that have been done to us!
How can I abuse thee?
Let me count the waysâŠ..
September 3, 2023
Like Liz Truss did, you mean?
September 3, 2023
Liz Truss’ only mistake (and it was a big one) was to lose control of the narrative. Fiscal confidence is all about the narrative whihc is why the pronouncement (however inaccurate) of these “independent” bodies are so important.
Liz Truss’ approach was correct but she got screwed by losing the narrative and not being supported by her MPs.
September 3, 2023
In my view Truss & Kwasi never had a chance. The Sunak supporters and prob. the BoE were surely determined to decapitate her from the very outset – just sore losers it seems.
Rather clever of Sunak though to blame all the inflation (that he and the BoE caused as Chancellor with his waste, lockdowns & QE) on Trussâs very few days at No 10.
I see that Professor of Palaeoclimatology in the School of Earth and Environment and now Chancellor of Leeds University (one Dame Jane Francis) wants to force climate indoctrination onto all university students. Most students of course will not even have decent science O-levels so perhaps you might convince them of the CO2 gas climate alarmist religion. But I would not bother with the brighter physics students and Nobel physics prize winner types as they have mainly sussed out the scam already. If you try to explain ârenewable energyâ to them they will think the teachers are round the bend.
So does this women actually believe in this the alarmist religion or is Leeds universityâs research funding perhaps rather dependent on pretending to? Similar to Khan & Imperial perhaps?
September 3, 2023
LL
I wish that there was a âlikeâ button on this site, your comments are growing more succinct and accurate by the day
Iâve always appreciated your comments, I remember someone criticising you for having too many comments
I think that by now everyone appreciates your comments!
September 3, 2023
I see, so if only she had explained it better then the World Bank, the IMF, every single global hedge fund and every single global financial institution and every lender would have said “by jove, these policies that have failed everywhere every time they’ve been tried and that no reputable economist thinks is anything other than a guarantee of massive rises in interest rates and therefore also of inflation and public debt … it turns out, now she’s explained it, Liz Truss was right, and we were all wrong”
September 3, 2023
Truss failed to say she would make spending cuts. In fact she said she would not. So how was she going to make tax cuts?
September 3, 2023
I love the wonderful lack of self awareness that people like you have. Oh yes, in a mere 50 days, her policies – which were never enacted – are responsible for the inevitable end of 10 years of the lowest interest rates in history, the highest taxes in 75 years, the biggest national debt in history, government borrowing of ÂŁ5,000 a second propelling the debt ever onwards towards ÂŁ3,000,000,000,000 and inflation (the same as most Western economies. Wow, she must have been some magician to do all that in 50 days.
Meanwhile, those of us that are awake and aware of the world around us have observed that the present state of affairs is the culmination of the actions of our governments since the day Margaret Thatcher left office.
September 3, 2023
Ms Truss may have been somewhat naive but I don’t think we’ve had the full story of what actually happened during her brief governance. Gilt prices had been going steadily down since the beginning of that year, her most expensive committment (ÂŁ140B in home energy relief) had been well trailed and the 45% top tax reduction was minor by comparison. The LDI problem had existed long before she arrived and been flagged 18 months earlier by pension experts. As for “ignoring” the ONS – Was she so wrong to do so in the light of their clear failures? I think the BoE and Pension Regulator have much to answer for but there are many who prefer to heap it all on Truss. I wonder why?
It’s also interesting to note that although Gilt prices recovered slightly after her downfall, they then continued their steady march downwards as inflatioin (and interest rates) increased. I’ve never seen any explanation of exactly how (or why) Jeremy Hunt was selected to become Chancellor. He certainly would not have been on my list of candidates and if our economy is just about ‘bumping along’ now, it’s certainly not because of anything he’s doing to “help” it.
September 3, 2023
Yes, gilts had been having problems.
What is also not being talked about is that the BoE’s own pension fund was 100% invested into those LDI funds. Which raises the question as to just who or what were they really saving by their actions?
And… who in their right mind invests 100% in a single asset? The state bank should know better. There is a clear lack of competence in UK institutions.
September 3, 2023
Oh and yes, Truss was clearly stitched up – the timing of the bond announcements by the BoE is highly suspect and very telling.
Announcing upcoming bond sales was guaranteed to destabilise the market. Clearly the wrong thing to do in that situation, so the objective had to be political (look at who appointed the governor). Or… I suppose it could be gross incompetence again… take your pick.
Then, once Truss is gone, they announce bond buying. Hmmmm.
I have written to my MP to demand that they remove Sunak before the next GE. The usual response of course – close ranks, say how marvellously he’s doing.
September 3, 2023
Miss Truss was not allowed to complete her prescription for our ills, let along apply it. She may or may not have been the right person to carry it out, but she made the right diagnosis.
September 3, 2023
+1
September 3, 2023
Truss appointed Hunt!! Why? Was scared into it to keep her job?
September 3, 2023
It’s pretty much the same as the climate scam. They can’t accurately forecast the weather in three months but can definitely predict it in 30 years.
Eemust be on the nth warning that we have only 2 years to save the planet and nothing tangible happens.
Yesterday the BBC reported the hurricane in Florida as the worst for 100 years. What caused it 100 years ago. They can’t see have stupid they look
September 3, 2023
They struggle with three day forecasts let alone three months! In the Michael Fish âno hurricaneâ forecast even three hours was beyond them!
September 3, 2023
“They canât see have stupid they look”
Unfortunately, they are able to rely on an ever increasing army of gullible people from all walks of life who lap it all up and repeat it in the very same words and phrases. It is also they who can’t see how stupid they look.
It was the same over the toppling of Boris: the gullible army obediently repeated that Boris was “an inveterate liar” but could not come up with a single example when challenged.
September 3, 2023
Rose
Iâm certain that youâre very well-meaning
He was economical with the actualite on an unprecedented scale
He stoked the Ukraine war by putting the mockers on a peace deal very early on
He was photographed in an ICU with a ventilator, the very worst thing you can do to someone suffering from covid is to put them on a ventilator
The bang a saucepan for the NHS was instigated by a woman with close connections to Number 10, Downing Street
I could go on
He had a disastrous effect on the covid crime by his lockdowns which in one fell swoop destroyed the economy, I can mention a series
The only contribution heâs made is in the field of child production, poor old Carrie seems to be permanently preggers
September 3, 2023
The ventilator was another scam, people were starting to see through the narrative so something drastic had to be dropped into the mix
September 3, 2023
Your proposals are far too sensible for politicians who choose to be guided by “absurd”, wildly inaccurate forecasts. They like such forecasts because they help generate fear to justify yet more taxation. The creation of a sense of fear among the electorate is their standard operating procedure to introduce oppressive taxation, pandemic measures and net zero nonsense.
September 3, 2023
Indeed state sector incompetence as usual.
Today in the Sunday Telegraph.
Daniel Hannan
âThe Conservatives have become a party of handouts â including to their greatest enemiesâ
âWhy does the Government fund organisations that habitually bite the hand that feeds them? Itâs a good question. But here is a better question. Why does the Government fund lobby groups at all?â
Because they are Con-Socialists perhaps?
Also Jeremy Hunt âWhen it comes to money, the Labour Party still cannot be trusted
As ever, the Opposition has pledged massive spending without a squeak as to how it will pay for itâ
Well of course they cannot be trusted, but neither can the Tories as we have seen. Labour do say they will charge VAT on private school fees and abolish NonDom status but neither will raise any net tax at all just push more into state education, or to overseas schools and the NonDoms will just go, invest elsewhere, not come or rearrange their tax affairs.
Hunt goes on to say:- âAs I saw when sitting around the Cabinet table in 2010, we had to address the problems with the British economy head on. It was clear that the deficit was too high and that we needed to take action to get the economy on a sustainable footing.â
Except since about 2009 UK government debt as a % of GDP has doubled. This mainly due to the vast waste and incompetence by the âConservativeâ government, the net harm lockdowns, the net harm vaccines, the largely worthless degrees, test and trace, vast over regulation, the net zero lunacy & bonkers energy policies, the mad NHS structuresâŠ
September 3, 2023
+++
I suppose we must bear in mind that this is no normal government?
I believe that, strictly speaking, it wasnât actually elected (?) and thus does not take its orders from the democratic process but from elsewhere.
Our well-being is not paramount and now that is beyond obvious.
I know that it rarely ever has been ( paramount) but the marginalisation of Joe Soap is becoming a de facto.
Blatant.
September 3, 2023
If only we had a few of the members of the commons with a titter of whit perhaps we could find a government of coalition!
September 3, 2023
They have said how theyâll raise extra taxes in round about ways through their spokespeople. What Iâm observing is:
Pensioners need to pay more one way or another, will they have one tax and add tax and NI together its been mentioned several times, the personal allowances have been aligned already?
Houses will have an extra few alphabet letters to extract more local council taxes with a claw back to central government from rich, wealthy areas to support our city ghettos.
Fiscal drag has already taken place on people, businesses, dividends (less dividends means lower ISA returns, they wonât notice).
Businesses – they donât vote, theyâre an easy hit,
Non-Doms not many of them, there will be less but it sounds good
Private schools extra 20% hit, so wonât they be offering free scholarships and what % of kids will then revert to the best state schools because lets face it they live in the poshest areas with the top state schools that the rest of us plebs try to get our kids into even if we donât live next to the school.
I think theyâve worked out a Wealth tax could actually reduce taxes the following years as Norway found out. A one of hit for a five year loss.
Will they be able to borrow more? Or are we maxed out due to covid and the bank crash weâre still recovering from oh and the never-ending Ukraine war.
September 3, 2023
So why is the Government sticxking to Net Zero and HS2? The former is wrong not just economically but scientifically and the latter never had a positive business case and was never more than a political project. the oportunity costs of both these follies are enormous. Nothing that is really worthwhile and for which there is a sound business case and definite need can be funded.
September 3, 2023
Correct.
September 3, 2023
+++
I think they are âfollowing ordersâ.
Agenda 21 = agenda for the whole of the 21st century.
(How dare they?)
And that agenda is probably a World Government.
Thus not coherent in national ( no more nations!) terms.
September 3, 2023
Seems so, see the excellent Neil Oliver programme on GBnews yesterday!
September 3, 2023
+++
Yes. I think I must have got it from his YouTube vid.
Iâd always thought it meant the year 2021 going on to 2030.
But to think they feel they can dominate a whole century!!
And now I see ( as reported in The Times via Jeff Taylor) that boat persons will be virtually rubber stamped.
We have no future.
September 3, 2023
Listening to Trump on the usurping Biden maladministration, one heard the exact same list of follies. He could have been talking about here, as if we have already got world government.
September 3, 2023
872 criminals from Africa and Asia, and perhaps Albania, brought in on 15 boats yesterday, the administration are aiming for a world population and a non-christian one.
September 3, 2023
Peter Gardner
The covid scamdemic is a case in point!
September 3, 2023
These bodies are a threat to democracy and I am not sure that they have the incentive or the ability to learn from their mistakes and to change from within.
Contemporary detailed outside review and help are needed.
September 3, 2023
++
Or maybe outright abolition?
September 3, 2023
@Everhopeful
If these bodies are corrupt in that they intentionally get things wrong so as to, for example, achieve a change of regime…. then I believe you are right and they have to go..
However, if they are merely incompetent then I believe they should be given one last chance to redeem themselves by embracing outside help and internal change.
September 3, 2023
How can we tell? Only AFTER the event!
Better to be on the safe side this time. ( Not that in reality we have much hope of having any say in the matter!)
But surely we have given too many second chances?
September 3, 2023
Correct Everhopeful
September 3, 2023
A good video as usual from the excellent Dr John Campbell on Israeli and other studies showing just how vastly superior natural Covid âvaccinationâ is to the big Pharma versions (far less dangerous too, this certainly for those under about 65). So the lockdowns, in as much as they delayed Covid infections also delayed far better, free & earlier natural Covid vaccinations. The lockdowns did net health damage and vast economic harm too.
Our government and their ârevolving doorâ experts got almost every single thing on Covid totally wrong. The same on energy, net zero, the economy, tax levels, education, the NHS, QE inflation, the wars on motorists, small businesses, landlords, the Botched BrexitâŠindeed what have they actually got right in 13 years?
September 3, 2023
+++
âExpertsâ are now closing down schools Willy Nilly with yet another scare story that canât really be refuted. A Johnsonian dilemma? ( And just think of all that online âlearningâ)
How, in the face of dire prediction can anyone say âGet your coat on and go to school!â
Aberfan is still a living memory.
And as with covid and OBXYZ, (whatever their acronym/abbreviations) predictions⊠a certain amount of manipulation can always appear to prove the point!
September 3, 2023
House building is reducing, commercial building is down, has the construction industry been promised public building to compensate and to keep the skills going.
These buildings were ok in July now suddenly in September theyâre not, Scotland have decided to keep them open. Theyâll probably fix up and put mobile classrooms in the grounds and do their schools piece by piece. There is more to this than meets the eye.
September 3, 2023
+++
Yes.
I bet it is to get the kids âlearningâ online once again. Sort of lockdown by any other name.
15 minute cities aka prisons and all that!
And our politicians are allowing this to be done to us.
September 3, 2023
I worked for a company in Salisbury which manufactured concrete processing equipment, we made pokers whose purpose was to add to poured concrete extra density therefore strength to heavy load bearing structures I canât believe anyone would attempt the opposite?
September 3, 2023
+++
Good point.
I wonder if it is possible to look up (in old trade books?) the building methods used for the buildings in question?..
September 5, 2023
Vibrating pokers are used when pouring concrete to remove air – to make sure the concrete is homogeneous and without voids. They donât add âextra densityâ – by removing air they simply make the concrete as strong as possible and, in particular, avoid voids around the steel reinforcement – ensuring moisture is kept away from the steel so it doesnât rust and, in time, spall the concrete.
September 3, 2023
“Our” Government and their revolving door experts did what they were ordered to do on Covid. And they are doing what they are ordered to do with everything else you list.
They are just puppets of the Globalists, as is Starmer who has blatantly admitted that he’d rather be in Davos than Westminster because that’s where the real action takes place: Westminster is just a pantomime.
The wonderful Neil Oliver spelled it out on GB News last night: they are all implementing UN Agenda 21 – a plan for the 21st century which is intended to destroy our way of life and concentrate global power in a small number of “chosen” people.
September 3, 2023
+1. We are living in desperate times. The new elite control the mainstream Media and curate online content (in order to “protect” us…from the truth, presumably). As a result a large number of people accept the given narrative and dismiss any alternative view. Unless they have their eyes opened we are heading towards totalitarianism in most of the western world.
September 3, 2023
I watched Neil Oliver last night. He is so informed and correct!
Neil Oliver touched on C40 and the global mayors- of which Khan is chairman. He won’t give up ULEZ. He can’t lose face for that one.
September 3, 2023
Sharon
++++ hundreds
Wonderful from Neil Oliver
Show be required watching for members of the government
And AGAIN no I havenât said that before
And AGAIN no I havenât said that before
Is this the new method of preventing people from posting?
And AGAIN NO I havenât said that before
I repeat is this the latest method to prevent people from posting?
September 3, 2023
Yes, if I printed money I would be put in jail but our Government can print money out of thin air, devaluing every pound we have saved and this is legal. People need to wake up to whatâs happening with Agenda 21 before itâs too late. The EU legislation to control the internet and therefore control what people are allowed to hear comes into force next year. Iâm sure our Government is working frantically to implement the same censorship. Welcome to 1984 people.
September 5, 2023
And, of course, when banks lend money as a mortgage that, too, is created out of thin air.
September 3, 2023
Still a slight move in the right direction from Sunak perhaps?
âSunak defies net zero ban on new airports Ministersâ rejection of climate watchdog directive signals more âpragmaticâ approach RISHI SUNAK will face down the Governmentâs climate advisers over demands for ministers to halt the expansion of airports, The Sunday Telegraph can disclose.â
Sunak and his new energy Sec. really needs to fully close down Gummerâs moronic Climate Change Committee, abandon the moronic net zero religion and get fracking, drilling, mining plus some R&D in better nuclear, better batteries, better heat pumps, better insulation and other promising areas. But these to be rolled out âonlyâ when working well and are cost effective & without subsidy.
September 3, 2023
You are right; the climate change committee bases its decisions on a socialist framework and will never succeed as its pronouncements hit reality.
The best way to net zero is to nurture a pipeline of new technologies. Some technologies will succeed, and the rest will fail during their development, so weed out the duds and only spend money on those likely to succeed.
We should only subsidise full-scale technology trials, which will release ÂŁ billions for the R&D effort.
When the technology is proven economically and environmentally, roll them out across the county. People will be happy to adopt them as it will improve the environment and save them money.
The rest of the world will also be happy to adopt the technology, giving real leverage to the investment. The UK will become the leader in green technologies because they will also want to buy the technologies.
September 3, 2023
LL
There will never be a right move from Roland `R
September 3, 2023
It could be that, putting aside the possibility of malevolent intent, this obsession with the so-called â4th Industrial Revolutionâ is leading to great harm.
Why must the machine be viewed as right at all costs? It is still a matter of âgarbage in garbage outâ.
Most of us have suffered at the altar of this nonsense what with broadband failure, bugs, hacking, being locked out of an account, and all the rest. Very swiftly the tools we need to live our lives ( eg banks, transport etc) are being removed.
And no viable alternative has been provided!
Maybe those who desire riches and power above all things fear clever men and so embrace the inaccuracies of machines/robots?
September 3, 2023
The chance of a Tory overall majority in the next election (implied by the betting odds) is just 10%. Could this be a good bet? They could still easily win if Sunak started to do some of the right things:- turn back to boats, abandon net zero, deregulate, cut taxes, cut out all the vast levels of government waste, make full use of BrexitâŠ
But Sunakâs ship is still going in totally the wrong direction, especially with Mayâs insane net zero time bomb. Labour just offer the same direction but at a even higher speed.
To win Sunak merely needs to do a huge U-turn on nearly every issue.
September 3, 2023
But in a way that people can actually believe him, which is rather less easy given his record.
September 3, 2023
Can I give you the odds on that? 0%
The election campaign is irrelevant. The electorate have made up their minds. You can feel it. It was like that 3 months before the Brexit vote. Itâs a marvellous thing when millions of people go on sync. Like the flocks of birds swirling in autumn ready to go, and just circling to pick up the last stragglers.
September 3, 2023
Well 9:1 are the current betting odds so if you think it is 0% then surely you need to bet on it not being a Tory majority & if you are right at 0% you will win circa 10% of you stake. ! I think 9:1 is a good bet. Far better odds than the circa 30% chance that I would put it at. Still rather unlikely but not as unlikely as 10% in my estimation!
September 3, 2023
Can you get odds on a Labour win? Would you take such a bet? Even at 100/1 against youâd lose money.
September 3, 2023
It’s not going to work, is it?
Nobody would believe this snake. Most people have seen him blow cash on Covid- out of spec. PPE, furlough, all unnecessary, then squeeze it back out of the little people. He made 5 promises and if any of them are met it will be either by luck or by using weasel words. The guy’s seen as a chancer, like an energetic version of Cameron.
We’ll either vote for a decent Reform candidate or sit this one out unless a completely different Tory team is forged.
September 3, 2023
Two PPE Oxon. bent secondhand car salesman types, if anything Cameron was rather better with the gift of the gab Sunak sound like a dim primary school teacher lecturing dim 7 year olds. Cameron (low tax at heart but never in reality) also seemed to realise that climate alarmism was greencrap but did not go public with this!
September 3, 2023
So Hunt has kicked off the “ignore what WE’VE done to destroy the economy, Labour will be worse” pre-election campaign in the DT today.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/09/02/the-conservative-party-champion-fiscal-responsibility/
Do the Blue-Green-Socialists who have colonised the Not-a-Conservative-Party really expect anyone to believe their bovine excrement?
So Hunt says Labour can’t be trusted with the economy, which is quite right. But we can’t trust the Not-a-Conservative-Party either – we have the evidence of our own eyes and experience of Sunak’s incompetence during the Great Covid Print and Borrow Squandering.
September 3, 2023
+1
September 3, 2023
Donna, as ever you hit the nail square and straight.
We need honest and strong , but intelligent MPâs .
Unlike the member for North Devon, who this morning is whinging about short term holiday lets. She cannot see that the problem is caused by her party using all the hotels for migrant accommodation
People will come for holidays and if they are confronted with no hotels they will find alternatives. AND the market always responds with a solution, more regulation is not the solution! Get rid of the migrant problem and this distraction will solve itself.
September 3, 2023
Get rid of the migrant problem – well let’s hope that bed contingency we’re told exists, at great expense, is still up & running as there were 872 / 15 boats arrived yesterday – Sat 02/9 ( HO figures ) This is appalling.
September 3, 2023
Hunt is not a fiscal champion if on taking over the Treasury with the ACTUAL figures at his teams finger tips, not guesstimates from quango bodies like the oNS OBR etc he couldnât work out for himself how we were doing? Businesses have to report payroll digitally in real time now its not difficult to get information month by month. The self-employed a little more difficult but HMRC estimate 6 months in advance and if people arenât doing as well as they predict they find out pretty quick when people contact them.
VAT is digital quarterly.
If GDP is what we generate as a Country then surely all these digital returns should have improved the treasuries chances of getting figures right.
September 3, 2023
All the economic pain being inflicted on the public will surely result in the Conservatives losing the 2024 General Election. Starmer will quietly sit on the fence and let Sunak, Hunt and Bailey continue to apply the squeeze and bring the country to it’s knees. And what will we have to look forward to if Labour get in? More of the same incompetence, incompetence, incompetence. Feeling angry? I am!
September 3, 2023
It would appear that a non elected BoE decides on Government financial strategy. Not the Government advised by the Treasury! Another nail in the coffin of democracy!
September 3, 2023
Imagine where the British economy would have been had JR been PM since 2016.
Imagine where the British nation would have been had Powell beaten Heath.
Why do we have tHe wrong person in position of power repeatedly and believe we can âaffordâ it?
September 3, 2023
+++
Very true.
I think that maybe the corrupt and dim always fear the brilliant and efficient. Well they would really wouldnât they? And they will go to any lengths to retain or grab power and wealth.
The things we have seen in recent years reveal just how easy it is to underestimate this.
I still do not understand how they cut away all EPâs support so easily although I suppose we saw a good example of how they do it recently.
The mass formation shaming trick.
September 3, 2023
Powell underestimated the power of the enemy within, a vile alien force of pure evil that is responsible for all the woes to beset the Western world. It understands that to control the people and the politicians in consequence it needs to control the public discourse through the media. The only force greater that this is that of a charismatic patriot and this it fears and it will do absolutely anything to bring him down and then besmirch his character for ever.
September 3, 2023
++
Thanks.
Good explanation.
September 3, 2023
Indeed plus with JR we would have avoided the ERM and certainly would not have been so deeply buried within the dire EU.
September 3, 2023
Neither man would have given us the huge Sunak/QE caused inflation either.
September 3, 2023
Nor would they have fallen for the net zero lunacy!
September 3, 2023
Sunak should just ask JR in as special advisor to the Treasury give him a small JR selected team of actuaries and get the figures and accurate estimates for themselves all the big information is there. Some of our best actuarial âneutral politicalâ brains will be able to do the math, just choose people who werenât members of political organisations at university (try not selecting from Oxbridge for a start), people donât tweet and social media sh!t in either direction.
September 3, 2023
This is no longer a relevant issue. The Tory leaders are happy to abuse any form of forecast from whatever source if it allows them enough liquidity to finance their party’s political agenda ie throw cash at anything and at anyone to appease the enemy.
If John and his ‘libertarian’ Tory colleagues don’t oppose Net Zero they’re not Conservative, they’re Socialist, fact. NZ will bankrupt this nation. Some Tory MPs don’t oppose it, to maintain party loyalty. Well, that is unacceptable. Putting party before freedom and liberty is utterly repugnant
September 3, 2023
DOM, +++++++, emphatically.
Furthermore, Neil Oliver is opening eyes to his many (and, I hope, increasingly many) viewers.
TCW, with their half hour interview by Tucker Carlson of Victor Orban presents another gem of exposure. Orban is clearly, to me, a man of genuine integrity with the future welfare of his people uppermost in his mind.
Orban : other world leaders (or ‘otherworld’), Contrast and compare.
September 3, 2023
Here we go again. If the results of their deliberations are so inaccurate, get rid of them. If you need a basis on what to base taxation employ half a dozen proven economists from the real world, pay them well, give them unfettered access to a super computer and a decent lunch once a month. Probably much cheaper than the failing bodies that have become such a joke with their forecasting that it is fair to ask who they are working for.
The get to grips with a nation that is falling apart before our eyes. The infrastructure of our UK is arguably beyond repair. It is overpopulated to the extent that our very culture is fast being eroded. The amount of feral behaviour is way out of control. The social structure of a life that was no longer exists. Todays proof, the boss of Tesco is considering offering all his staff body cameras as protection against anti social and thieving behaviour by large elements of the public. Why do we have a police force who only seem to exist outside Downing Street.
Current members of government and the HoC are as useless as a chocolate teapot, just go and leave it to the grownups.
September 3, 2023
Adendum,
Recommended reading today, Jeremy Clarkson in the Sunday Times. He highlights many of the areas of decay in the infrastructure and social structure of the UK. Depression is brought on by the thought that the next election, without a tectonic shift, will solve nothing. I pray that Reform have a well financed, well timed, exposition of their Conservative position to put convincingly before us. The goal is clear of opposition of any credibility.
September 3, 2023
You’d think such a common sense approach to forecasting would come naturally to a institutions that have decades of experience … and yet, they fail miserably to learn any lessons.
They continue to lie about the figures they produce, simply because their agenda now requires them to create impossible economic situations to ruin us.
This has nothing to do with incompetence – Surely, anyone can see that, it is all deliberate, giving the government every possible excuse to carry on destroying the UK economy.
September 3, 2023
European imported energy via interconnectors as at 09:00hrs today 19.7% (5gw) âŠand thatâs not a forecast, that a fact due to net-zero
September 3, 2023
So I suppose we now have to give a few million more in foreign aid to India to help with their space program.
September 3, 2023
Turning all Lennonesque?
September 3, 2023
What a shame Lizz Truss was not in possession of these corrected statistics.
The only hope for the Conservative party is a Starmer election victory and a new Conservative leader. Sunak winning would be a disaster.
September 3, 2023
Your suggestion of asking the OBR, BoE and ONS to mark their homework will not work.
The performance of these organisations is not good enough. The government would have sacked them and brought in another team in the real world.
If this is not politically possible, bring in an independent outside team to also estimate the size of the economy and model the public finances. The team should have a centre-right outlook to contrast the centre-left perspective of the government quangos and to avoid groupthink.
The testing of different assumptions against real-world data and the diversity of ideas can then be combined, leading to better forecasts in the future.
September 3, 2023
Hi John,
“The government needs to get rid of the 5 year deficit target. It should steer the economy with a 2% inflation target and a 2% growth target. It should use forecasting models with a better track record than the OBR, and make judgements taking into account money and credit conditions and allowing for how growth boosts tax revenues and can be boosted by lower tax rates. It should stop making tax the only flexible part of the package and see the importance of better spending controls and priorities to good outcomes”
I recent this, why?
Because, they have No intention of doing anything remotely similar! Marxists!
One point, different, in my Framework;
My Growth target would be the an Agreed Trend Growth Rate (something like 2.48% currently). Agreed means here, a degree of control and flexibility, of the oversight, of the BofE. It would reflect a working arrangement, and a chance, to put any loss of control before Parliament!
But, none of it will work, very well (if at all) without a Working Price Mechanism, Economic Flexibility.
So then; Labour Market reforms, and Benefits (Make it Profitable to Work/Contract, and still receive all the benefits, making a stable platform to bring up a family).
And then, major Supply-side Reforms, De-regulation, and a strong Competitions Regulator!
And then, the bottom line; A Cheap Energy/Food/Fish Strategy!
Etc,… You get the idea.
Please note; Even if you believe Benefits are too high, you can not reform them currently, not without Growth, and a “Cost of Living” that IS affordable to the Poor, Working Poor, or even the Blue Collar Workers, and by you saying it, isn’t going to make it matter. It will take time, and a good Plan, and Stability!
Lower Rents, high House Building, Social Housing for those left behind during the de-industrialisation of the 80’s!
No one accepts that holding wealth in a house, generates wealth! If they do, then they are stupid or selfish!
That money needs to be Invested in Productive Capacity.
We have a few generations, since the WWx, that think so, well, it’s wrong!
Answer; Long term Interest rates set at around 5%-6% (also making Banking profitable), continuous House building and reducing of regulation on each house (making them cheaper), and Capital Gains on any short term gains in a House, and none on investment in Productive Capacity! Not just in Zombie R&D companies! But High Value added manufacturing, Productivity gains in transport, energy, fishing, farming, etc,…
Lots to be done! With Lots of People being left behind!
BR
RDM
September 3, 2023
“To ask the OBR to get that [forecast of the deficit in five years time] right when they cannot get the current year right and then to rely on it as if it were right to a few billions is absurd” – clearly, but not to Chancellor Hunt it seems!
The absurd leading the unwilling sums up contemporary Britain.
September 3, 2023
Computer modelling again shows its key feature. RINO Rubbish in Nonsense out.
Maybe the financial Diecasting amateurs could lend their skills to the Climate Alarm computer models. There, they will find a whole herd of Rinos they can compliment with their established prowessâŠ.
September 3, 2023
@Rob Evans
You are correct in what you say, but the reason so called Scientists/Engineers relay of Computers is because they are imposed on them, from the top down, by People that have not been challenged about their ideas! This is the notorious problem of Elitism, and static thinking!
They are no longer spending the time required to develop their own ideas, from their own analysis of the problem! This used to be the main challenge to today’s Group Thinking, but no longer!
And, the People using it the most is Civil Servants, but it’s endemic throughout the establishment!
As you say; Rubbish In, Nonsense Out! I wish we could get them out!
September 3, 2023
Everyone keeps on about weâre falling in to recession, how badly off the country is doing, yet taxes receipts are rising. VAT would be down if recession warnings were true.
September 3, 2023
Don’t worry folks, although Sir John has pointed out yet again just how much we have fouled up with our responsibilities, how much our incompetence and errors have caused the country catastrophic trouble, we are safe in our jobs.
All he wants us to do is tune up our methods and if we promise that to take the pressure off, we can go back to our old ways after a while.
There are some who want us, ONS and OBR to be abolished because of massive and longterm failures but we are safe with him. He will never press for anything that might really disturb the establishment he and we are part of.
Reply I am trying to change this governments actions so need to give them advice that reflects their views. I would not myself have set up the OBR and think itâs work should be done in the Treasuru
Y
September 3, 2023
Reply to reply.
My points confirmed. You dare not call for abolishment of incompetent bodies though – nothing must upset your party and party in government.
Nothing will change to benefit people in the country and failure will remain built in and tolerated.
September 3, 2023
Thereâs a great post from Neil Oliver on GBNews this morning about exactly what the government intends for us plebs, worrying but 100% accurate
I advise everyone to search it out!
September 3, 2023
What chance is there that outside bodies that influence our economic state can be ignored or dismissed ? . We are endlessly influenced by institutions whose records show that they cannot be trusted . If we did not suffer the consequences it would be a different matter but this is not the case . The truth is the Treasury and its leadership are not up to the job and Downing Street has lost the confidence of the voter .
September 3, 2023
‘It should steer the economy with a 2% inflation target’
Why 2% and not 1, 3, or 5%?âIs 2% thought to be the most the public can be fleeced without minding?
I agree a steady rate of change to the price level is useful for planning but -2%, 0%, and 2% all meet that.
Reply 2% because it is the widely accepted target.Setting a higher one would send a bad signal.Proposing a tougher one is unlikely to be accepted
September 3, 2023
Inaccurate figures on the economy, inaccurate figures on âthe earth has a feverâ, inaccurate figures on covid.
Inaccurate figures seem to be the order of the day
September 3, 2023
The real Questions
When has the OBR ever been correct in its predictions?
When has the ONS ever been correct in its data reporting?
When was the last time the BoE did as requested?
So overall when did any of these entities show any improvement on the methods used prior to their inception? When did any of these entities work for the UK and its People? When did those responsible, this Conservative Government ever bother to manage these entities in the interest of us all?
Its looking like another home goal from the inactions from 13 years of Conservative Government rule.
September 3, 2023
Ian, there has been plenty of action, its whether it was the right action that was debateable.
Weâve had the school leaving age increase from 16 to 18. The age children start nursery school brought forward. Smart Motorways! A covid crisis to deal with, the vast majority were very happy with furlough, covid tests some doing the free tests every single day for over a year!! The extra PPE bought for the NHS on demand when all the regular suppliers couldnât supply (it is as though all the speed of that is forgotten now, the endless pictures of nurses in bin bags) the cry for ventilators to be built quickly Lifelogic on here led the cry for those and men to be vaccinated sooner. Hindsight is a marvellous thing but Starmer wanted to lock down harder and for longer!
I keep reading everyone is worse off, yet Iâve never seen so much house building in my life! I see people still taking one or two holidays each year. I know plenty of people in the North West who can still get on the housing ladder just not in the best locations. The national minimum wage has risen a lot 10% this year alone, personal allowance before tax risen a lot, NI from ÂŁ9800 to ÂŁ12570 just last year no one is satisfied, no one is happy. Thereâs been a reduction of working hours since 1995, extra bank holidays recently which cost the public sector a fortune not only in extra holiday pay but in lost productivity, operations and doctors visits. The environment has been doing better CO2 down, cleaner air (nothing is ever acknowledged, nothing) road journeys are down, we have less Irish trucks on our motorways now which is positive as they werenât paying us to use them.
Weâre supporting a Eastern European Country in an attempted territory take over, do you think they would all come to help the UK with money, training and time, no of course of they wouldnât weâre on our own even with all this help. When we go to help a few years later weâre accusing of being part of the problems.
September 5, 2023
@a-tracy
Positive, reasoned posts are not welcomed here. They donât fit in with the endless doom mongering.
September 3, 2023
As the Government is showing occasional flashes of wanting to actually win thr next GE, I offer the banning of the ‘American Bully’ dog breed as an excellent policy that would be welcomed by everyone (except the RSPCA it would appear): https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-is-the-rspca-defending-the-american-bully-dog/
September 3, 2023
The figures from the ONS, the OBR and the Treasury are all as the uniparty Parliament wants them to be in order to justify the policies they wish to follow.
The big advantage for us is that when Labour win the next election we will all be feeling a lot better as the ONS, the OBR, the Treasury, the BBC, the BoE, the corporates, and all our quangos and institutions will be reporting just how much better everything is and will have the figures to prove it.
The only exception to this will be the BBC and Met Office informing us of how the weather is becoming so extreme (oceans are boiling (Al Gore) and the planet is boiling (UN Sec Gen)) that we must implement the Sheriff, sorry, the mayor of Londonâs C40 cities plan to cut all our CO2 emissions by two thirds by 2030.
September 3, 2023
Not only spending controls, but better regulatory environment (to encourage work) and a better “make work pay” culture (and supporting legislation re benefits).
The lurch from -0.6% to +1.2% is a ludicrous admission by the ONS. Also… why did it take so long to tell us? Any good news re brexit would have to be buried as long as possible, of course…
So we can see, yet again, that most of the machinations of these organisations is political. The recent appointment (by Hunt) of a rabid remoaner to the BoE MPC shows that they are still infiltrating our institutions, where they don’t care about getting it right, they care about pushing their political beliefs.
Oh and… don’t forget the models of the Treasury in this. Theirs are just as bad.
If you think the concept of someone pulling strings behind the scenes is merely a conspiracy theory, then just look at recent history. Dorries’ book should be an interesting read, since that’s the topic she addresses.
September 3, 2023
Their forecasting models are too pessimistic for the same reason the Covid models were too pessimistic – it makes it look like the government are doing better than expected so everyone is happy. I wonder how good the equivalent forecasting models are in USA, Japan and Germany/EU ?
September 3, 2023
News is not just what happens.
It is what a fairly small group of people decide is news.
September 3, 2023
Iâve just saved ÂŁ15,000 on the cost of a replacement car battery âŠ.because my car runs on petrol …ha ha
September 3, 2023
Most people believe the net zero tripe.
Most people think Covid was handled reasonably well – as well as anyone could.
As far as the election goes – itâs the economy, stupid. And thatâs it.
September 4, 2023
My mother has bad cancer. She has private healthcare and pays for her own carer. But I have to say the care she has received from the NHS, when needed, has been awesome. 10/10. Makes me think things are far from going to pieces in this country. This country could still have a great future. We need to stay positive and keep working hard to make sure it does!
September 4, 2023
NO. We should aim to get inflation down to 0% and keep it there. We should aim to get the greatest long term economic growth without any specific target but by recognising the need to shrink the State, thereby freeing up capital for SMEs to spend. Priority tax cuts are to reduce corporation tax from 25% to 12.5%, matching the Republic of Ireland rate, and to raise the income tax thresholds to ÂŁ20,000 and ÂŁ70,000, also ensuring that anyone earning less than ÂŁ20,000 pays any personal NI. In view of our disastrous fiscal position, public expenditure cuts must exceed tax cuts.
This package is not on offer from Messrs Sunak and Hunt, so there is no reason for me to vote Conservative.
September 4, 2023
“…the government remains wedded to tax and spend policies based on these inaccurate numbers. ”
Isn’t it the other way round? The government has *created* these inaccurate forecasts and guestimates *in order to* justify the tax-and-spend policies on which it – and the ‘One Nation’ europhile Tories – have determined to embark, in order to justify trying to rejoin the EU and the risible Net Zero pretence.
If the government wants the country to become a blazing inferno of revolt, it can carry on along this economically suicidal course.
September 5, 2023
Let the migrants come. We need them to work and pay tax to pay our pensions. My lads wonât be contributing. One is selling up (mortgage tripled!) and heading to Australia. The other is off to work in the Middle East. With our low birth rate, loads of people living to 90 and more and youngsters emigrating, we need lots of young bodies here working. As long as all the migrants live in London, those of us sane enough not to live there (or visit the melting pot world capital) wonât notice. As long as they donât build housing in my town – let them all come.