Some of you would like to discuss the war in Ukraine. You ask my view.
I hate to see senseless slaughter and destruction of property.The loss of life and injury to Ukrainians is dreadful. I would like to see a ceasefire and negotiated settlement, but this can only happen when Russia and Ukraine both wish to proceed in that way. I do not want to see other forces and nations intervene to try to impose a settlement on them. That would doubtless mean even more deaths and unhappiness.
I do not agree with the few who take the Russian side and say Russia is close to victory. All the evidence available from this far away Ā points to a fairly static war now, with both sides well Ā dug in. Both can damage the other but cannot win quickly or easily. I condemn Russiaās violent seizure of Ukraine territory.
The issue of how much support the UK and allies should offer Ukraine is difficult. There is general agreement that no NATO, therefore no UK, forces should enter Ukraine and fight on their side. There is agreement no NATO supplied weapons should be used by Ukraine for an attack on Russian territory , but they can be used within Ukraine against Russian occupied areas. There has been a reluctance to supply fast jets, but some tanks and more sophisticated drones and smart weapons have been supplied.
Clearly the volume and power of western weapons supplied will have an impact on the result, just as weapon supplies and economic support to Russia by her allies helps Russia. I wrote before this latest conflict about the circumstances that led to a change of government in Ukraine in 2014 and the background to the Russian seizure of Crimea. I would be interested in your thoughts on how NATO should proceed. I have not been seeking to influence Ā or change this policy.
There are big issues arising from the prolonged war concerning the displacement of people, the costs of rebuilding and the future financing of Ukraine.
September 15, 2023
Good morning.
The government can find the cash for the destruction of Ukraine and the Russian military but cannot find a penny the maintenance of our roads. And yes I know it is the Local Authorities duty but, if the government stated that unless such work was undertaken, councillors officials would be personally liable for any damage to personal property as a result of poor maintenance of the roads.
And as for the motorways which our kind host has reminded us here that Central Government is responsible for, there are quite a few places that need a lick of paint on the roads. It looks to me that they have not been done since you lot took office.
September 15, 2023
The Government can find Ā£billions to pay for criminal migrants who have no right to be here, but can’t provide a relatively small sum of money to ensure that our Armed Forces veterans ALL have somewhere to live.
September 15, 2023
The govt. can give France Ā£500 million for increasing illegal immigrants to our shores to put up in four star hotels while French police dance at night clubs instead of working, Sunak can give Ukraine billions on weapons and put up 180,000 people here at our expense, Hong Kong people coming here at our expense by the hundreds of thousands because Sunak will not challenge China on anything, Sunak signed up to EU Horizon last week to fund ā¬2.6 billion a year to develop weapons for EU and to promote EU growth and competition, EU decides if it wants to allocate our money back to us!! Sunak on bended knee to what he calls his in- laws while I Dian PM aware and condones Christian persecution in India and supporting Russia!, giving India millions in aide each year for its space programme while inviting thousands of poor Indians here for the taxpayer to look after!, Sunak has gone spending mad with taxpayers cash around the world while telling us there is a cost of living crisis and no money!!
Your party and govt are an absolute disgrace. Your views are not represented in your party one jot.
September 15, 2023
Is that really the level of argument – potholes? Ukraine are saving us having to fight as Russia has stated its full intention to resurrect the USSSR and if they succeed in Ukraine where will it end? China is set on world dominance and supported by such despots as Putin Iran and Rocket Man, some African states, and God knows what India wants, we may have bigger problems than pot holes to worry about. Nothing will happen until Russia itself faces some destruction rather than Ukraine having one hand tied behind its back. Moscow should be targeted. Their people support Putin with his lies but know no better. And people on here complain about our media! This would never have happened under Trump. He once told Putin that if they invaded Ukraine he would see to it that the architecture of Moscow would be re-arranged. Then we got Biden and Russia saw its chance.
September 15, 2023
When did Russia āstate its full intention to resurrect the USSR?ā References please.
I can quote 36 times when President Putin stated the opposite on record, in the last 18 months.
September 16, 2023
Lynn, this is another of those misinterpretations illustrating the ignorance of Western commentary on Russia in general. I haven’t got the references to hand but I think the actual phrase was, “Russia is nothing without its empire” or similar. What is relevant is that that statement was made circa1989/90 while communist structures were being taken down and communism had been rejected for good. The debate in Russia was how to save a failed state and its empire. The lie now is that Putin is trying to resurrect a communist empire. He is most emphatically not. Neither is he anything like Hitler. understanding the enemy is fundamental in the military but it seems that in politics it is seen as an unnecessary luxury.
September 16, 2023
‘understanding the enemy…crucial…’
+1
September 16, 2023
Putin declared the fall of the USSR as ‘the greatest catastrophe of the 20th century’ and that he lamented the loss of ‘territory of the former Russian Empire’, so don’t try to convince me he does not want it back. Perhaps you think he has changed his mind. No doubt you believe anything a liar like Putin says. He could say it 100 times, never mind 36 times and I’d not believe him. Why do you trust Putin when he has lied constantly and consorts with the likes of North Korea? I’d rather deal with a thief than a liar. Perhaps, if they don’t want their empire back you can enlighten us as to why he invaded Ukraine when he said he wouldn’t. You seem to have better info than anyone else although your views do seem rather skewed against your own people.
September 15, 2023
Graham, when and in what way did Russia ‘state its full intention to resurrect the USSR’?
September 15, 2023
There’s been lots of work on motorways, VERY slow work, to make smart motorways to slow everyone down, close down lanes for breakdowns and slow everyone further, and make fines which should be ringfenced for spending on the ‘motorways’.
September 15, 2023
and in my experience few drivers pull over to drive on the former hardshoulder…they have all heard about the danger of breakdown cars being rear-ended by lorries. The distance between laughable Safety zones was never going to be enough, and even then the gap was extended.
September 15, 2023
One of the weakest posts I have seen here.
Is the world all about you, Mark B?
September 15, 2023
NATO has no options. It is beaten. You will need to actually see that before accepting it. Russia is self-sufficient, manufacturing 200 tanks and 2 million shells pa. The west canāt keep pace with one quarter of that. We donāt need to go further because without bullets the war is over.
Make no mistake, the petro-dollar and Reserve Currency is lost in this war. Europe has lost commodities and cannot replace them at a price which keeps us competitive. We are about to be poor, with a strong and angry Russia on our border.
It the fault of the deluded political class across the decadent west, so arrogant that the U.K. sends India āaidā while we canāt heat our homes and they land in the moon.
Thank God we are about to shed the insatiable Commonwealth. We need to shed the ā5 eyesā I.e the secretive, unaccountable, unelected deep state which has imposed such perversion and mystery on the Christian west, āvaluesā we donāt recognize but which have destroyed us in the name of Global Dominance for the mad few.
September 15, 2023
+++
That is one spine-tingling post!
Bravo!
And, to me, who struggles to get a true handle on the situation it explains a lot!
Especially the āFive Eyesā. Iād heard of but didnāt realiseā¦.
September 15, 2023
I seem to recall our disgraceful socialist govt ran away from Afghanistan showing that the killing and maiming of our troops and those that helped were totally meaningless loss of life. To add insult to I jury Liz Truss gave the Taliban Ā£100 million of our taxes!! Meanwhile Elwood thinks it a good idea to sing their praises when they were meant to be our enemy for years to justify the loss of life and maiming of our military, another burden on NHS!!
When will MP/minister be held to account for these travesties? This should include going back to Blaire- still a stain on humanity. Elwood should resign as an MP not just some trumped up useless expensive committee of no use to the taxpayer whatsoever.
On the opposition benches Starmer, Cooper and Benn trying to out do the Tories by going further to tie the UK to lockstep with the EU!! We voted leave yet both sides of the Uni party now acting in complete contempt to the nation and public to tie UK to EU against our wishes and public mandate. Starmer, Cooper, Benn and all those who sought to defy the public to stop our country leaving the EU should be targeted to be sacked and never work in public office again.
Any body voting them must be mad.
September 15, 2023
Well this particular body wonāt be proving herself to be mad!
September 15, 2023
@Lynn prob. right but very depressing indeed on top of everything else.
September 15, 2023
Sure, Russia is so self-sufficient they have to go begging for arms to North Korea.
September 15, 2023
Roy Grainger
Is that a fact or did you hear it on the BBC?
Oh so naive
September 15, 2023
Or is knit vice-versa?
September 15, 2023
No war required or needed. Peace talks should have stopped this unnecessary war. UK and US has no moral authority when it comes to illegal wars!! A proxy I war by US against Russia.
Meanwhile economy wrecked, high taxes, Sunak aligning in lockstep with EU, NHS has 7.7 million waiting list, education is teaching children a man can be woman and would they like to change, no police- too busy trawling on line in case someone says something unkind about trans people, public services a complete expensive useless mess, mass illegal immigrants housed in luxury accommodation while our war vets homeless. JR, your govt is so wrong on every issue it is hard to know where to begin to clear up its mess.
September 15, 2023
But apart from all that will the electorate forgive and put yet another Tory lot back in office?
September 16, 2023
A proxy war by the US against Russia? Perhaps you can tell us who invaded who in Ukraine. I agree we illegally invaded Iraq and should not have gone into Afghanistan, but that was at the behest of just 2 men and supported by our parliament.
September 15, 2023
+1 nice to see a dose of reality being expressed.
September 15, 2023
Ah the old ‘Russia is invincible’ idea. Surely the last 18 months gives the lie to that – they can’t even beat a smaller neighbouring state despite all their might and if they are so self sufficient in arms, why are they courting Rocket man to bale them out?
September 15, 2023
Oh dear Graham 1946
You will soon find out
So gullible
September 16, 2023
Will I? Please enlighten me as you obviously have information about it. So easy to make statements like that without any thought. I’d have thought that one of the most powerful armies in the world who have managed to fight for 18 months against a smaller opponent without winning outright despite overwhelming superiority is evidence enough that they aren’t all they were cracked up to be, but then I’m just a gullible simpleton.
September 15, 2023
+1. NATO should say it will not expand (oops, I think it told Russia that before, didn’t it?). Even better pull out of NATO, it’s a tool of warring US hawks. As a nuclear power Britain will remain safe – why do you think no-one is going to attack North Korea, or why is Iran so desperate for a nuclear capability?
We can then spend much more on the UK, and not waste our time jumping to Uncle Sam’s every foreign policy whim.
September 15, 2023
Agreed. We have to stop telling the world how to live. They need to get on with it and we have more than enough to do at home. We need to mind our own business!
September 15, 2023
I agree with what you are saying, I also believe this defensive aggression by Russia is a result of the constant pressure from the president of America and NATO constantly pushing closer to Russian borders. It is common knowledge that Putin was content with the border situation as it was but became upset with the creep towards the Russian territory by NATO.
If Trump had still been President the lives would not have been lost,
But Biden is an aggressor .
September 16, 2023
+1
I believe the USA and NATO deliberately provoked Putin.
September 15, 2023
Lynn Atkinson
Plus hundreds!
September 15, 2023
All Russian propaganda Lynn everything you said there
September 15, 2023
Lynn Atkinson: “Europe has lost commodities and cannot replace them at a price which keeps us competitive. We are about to be poor …”
It’s worth pointing out that the British Political class would love this to be all Mr Putin’s fault. But in fact due to the utter incompetence and bovine stupidity, low quality of the largely self selected western political class, the fault lies with them.
Rushi Sunak while chancellor expanded the UK money supply by 500%, a boast that has been removed from the Bank of England’s web site – ( since we’re now feeling the effects of such insanity, they too would like to blame rampant inflation on Mr Putin ).
Lynn Atkinson: “The west canāt keep pace with one quarter of that. ”
Again, it’s worth asking why the West hasn’t the industrial capacity to compete with Russia? That would be the deindustrialisation of our countries and the idea that we only need to push pieces of paper around, and sell our houses to one another, to make a living. Exporting our heavy industry – coal mining, steel making, ship building and aluminium smelting to China, which now, the US is busy trying to provoke over Taiwan has been an absolute disaster of an economic policy.
In fact, if you were to believe the Western political line, that this is ‘all Putin’s fault’, that of itself is a tacit admission how powerful Mr Putin is, and how servile and pathetic the Western leaders are.
Meanwhile the response of the British government ? Pass the energy bill!!
September 15, 2023
Lynn, a Russian troll couldn’t put up a more myopic view of the situation.
The reality is just about the opposite of what you wrote on every count.
September 15, 2023
Oh, please, stop it. Christian west! With half a dozen people in church services.
September 15, 2023
Think that nobody goes to CofE services because they are no longer Christian. The Russians have suffered 70 years of communist oppression, have reverted to their Orthodox religion. It is sustaining them.
September 16, 2023
Lynn Atkinson: “Think that nobody goes to CofE services because they are no longer Christian.”
People have left the Church of England because of a lack of leadership, the embrace of cults and, in fact, witchcraft, the Church of England is so busy being inclusive, it has discarded it’s own core doctrine. The Church of England has swapped Christian doctrine for ‘woke’.
Every opportunity rank and file population gets to reject ‘woke’, they jump at the change, the most recent instance in the USA was the rejection of Anheuser-Busch woke advertising campaign, which has destroyed one of the brands in its portfolio, ‘Bud Light’.
The Church of England is the Anheuser-Busch of the Christian world. It’s despoiled its brand and over the years the congregation have deserted it in droves.
September 16, 2023
Exactly! When I leave Church angry Iām better off not going.
September 15, 2023
And China is looking on, enjoying the show!
September 15, 2023
+++ Lynn Atkinson
Well said. I donāt think you missed anything out!
September 15, 2023
Ah, suddenly everything falls into place
The facts donāt matter, even someone who has spoken at the highest level at the UN and Scott Ritter who has impeccable credentials, nothing must be allowed to come between the facts and the government lies, deception on an industrial scale
The video has been publicised on TCW
itās reached the stage when no one believes the government any longer
As I said ā¦. I hope you have got your story straight because youāre going to need it! Oh what a tangled web we weave
Reply I trust you will write in and apologise if Ukraine do not lose the war this week.
September 15, 2023
Reply to reply
I will be delighted to do so but as thereās more chance of sighting an aviating porcine I feel that Iām in no danger
September 15, 2023
@Lester_Cynic āhighest level at the UNā ? Another talking shop for people that have failed to get a proper job
September 15, 2023
Yes it is a talking shop, but you cannot beat it as the highest level talking shop
September 15, 2023
JR: “I trust you will write in and apologise if Ukraine do not lose the war this week.”
This week?
September 16, 2023
Someone has to say it. What you say about the Five Eyes is utter tosh. The EU is kept out of it and there is a good reason for that – it isn’t trustworthy. The problems you cite are nothing to do with Five Eyes but with the political and economic entities like the EU and the political elite that run them and would run Britain more like the EU if they could.
September 15, 2023
I have made up my own mind about what is happening in Ukraine based on history, reason and a clear mind while ignoring the tosh and trash pump out by the usual sources. We had the same tosh and nonsense regarding Covid, climate change, air pollution, immigration, gender etc etc etc etc etc….
Where’s Angela Merkel these days? Just wondering like…..
September 15, 2023
Angela Merkel is very much toblame for this mess and Germany in general
Cosying up to Pootin and having a sweetheart deal on Russian gas gave Pootin the idea that expansionist land grabs wouldn’t be opposed as in Crimea.
It is essential he is put back in his box
September 16, 2023
Well, Germany isn’t going to make the same mistake twice. It is only supplying Ukraine with weapons since, three days after the Russian invasion it and the EU blackmailed Zelensky: sign over the future governance of Ukraine to the EU and you can have the weapons. 27 Feb 2022. On record. What Germany and the EU want is control of Ukraine’s vast mineral reserves of which lithium and rare earths alone are valued at up to US$12 trillion. That will reduce dependence on China.
September 16, 2023
Unfortunately all the valuable reserves are on the eastern side of the Step, and already lost.
But at least you have acknowledged that the west was aggressively intending to acquire assets it had no right to.
September 15, 2023
These days Angela Merkel is keeping very quiet indeed about deliberately making Germany reliant upon Russian gas supplies.
September 15, 2023
ah…an East German at heart is always likely to side with the Ruskies.
September 15, 2023
That’s intriguing Dom, when do you predict it will end, and how will it end?
September 15, 2023
It will end when outside agencies stop interfering and the combattants accept the status quo.
September 15, 2023
Good morning,
Those who don’t learn from history…… Zoom out and look at the World view. Wars/invasions are started by totalitarian regimes. If Putin succeeds in Ukraine, it won’t end in Ukraine. Other, distant, dictators will try their luck, thinking, perhaps correctly, that we are soft and fat and need to be enslaved to a more disciplined megalomaniac. We ARE in this fight, we just don’t need to shed our blood yet. If Ukraine falls now, we will have to fight, or be crushed. Time to tool-up!
September 15, 2023
Putin is holding elections as we speak. His party is sweeping the board. International observers, as there were in the 4 republics in their referendum. Free and fair elections. Nice if we could say the same for the US Democrats.
You will spill all the blood and be crushed.
Net Zero will be reached!
September 16, 2023
And of course with free and fair reporting of the situation in Ukraine and the slaughter of their young to help the populace decide – what a laugh.
September 15, 2023
@Peter Wood +1
and when they reach our shores what do we have to fight with?
September 15, 2023
Rubber dinghies.
September 15, 2023
answer : RNLI lifeboats?
September 15, 2023
Which totalitarian regimes invaded and waged war in Iraq and Afghanistan? Maybe you should learn from history. We just don’t need to shed our blood yet, not while we can fight to the last Ukrainian!
September 15, 2023
My goodness; answer in short, Kuwait….9/11., (plus other provocations)
September 15, 2023
Kuwait was way back in 1990. By 2003 it was Blair/Bush, the dodgy dossier and WMDs. Still haven’t found them.
9/11 was an entirely Saudi affair. Bin Laden was a Saudi national. Reported to be in Afghanistan at the time, so a good idea to invade the place and stay there for twenty years at enormous cost of blood and treasure, before handing it back to the Taliban in an even worse state.
In both campaigns British, American and other military personnel were killed or horrifically injured. The IED became the weapon of choice. No one knows how many civilians died. Just as no one knows how many Ukrainians have died, or are going to die. The sooner there is a negotiated settlement the better.
September 16, 2023
The problem with Afghanistan was that we went in there and then after the Taliban had fled tried to turn it into a Western Democracy when, in truth, it was never going to be such as these people are tribal. We then compounded the problem by going into Iraq and starving our Afghan mission of funds and resources. We spread what little we had too thinly.
We should have just gone there, kicked the Taliban out, built a large base and just sat there leaving the rest of the country alone.
September 15, 2023
Mark+Thomas: “Which totalitarian regimes invaded and waged war in Iraq and Afghanistan?”
Yea, don’t forget Syria, and Libya. Libya, where the BBC has the chutzpah to run reports of the devastation caused by the flooding. But nothing about the devastation caused by the NATO bombing campaign. That bombing campaign that resulted in the re-establishment of slave markets in the Maghreb in the 21st century!
September 15, 2023
And Serbia? Our anti-Nazi wartime allies. Not to mention Vietnam.
September 16, 2023
Peter Wood, WW1? American War of Independence?
September 15, 2023
Indeed it is all very depressing indeed.
On top of this it seems Farage thinks China (with its currency economic problems) might well invade Taiwan as early as next year with the support of Russia, North Korea, South Africa and even possibly even India. The West would, I suspect, be able or willing to do very little. I too think this is not at all that unlikely let us hope not.
The UK economy is a self inflicted mess due to gross Tory incompetence, net zero, QE, lockdowns, Net Zero, over taxationā¦ and with even worse to follow from Starmerās Labour or perhaps a post election replacement of Starmer and this likely to be for many terms. Especially if they lower the voting age to children as they surely will do..
September 15, 2023
Russiaās catastrophe in Ukraine is surely a huge deterrent to Chinaās brutal but cautious regime. The West should be supplying Taiwan now with weapons shown to be effective in Ukraine so they are well prepared. Drones, missiles etc. Taiwan needs to increase its defence budget massively if itās serious about avoiding conquest by the CCP. Japan may need to think about becoming a nuclear power, which it could do very quickly with US support, given its wealth.
It is a catastrophe for the West and for liberal democracy if the likes of Putin and Xi can get away with invasion conquest and subjugation of independent democratic nations.
Interesting piece yesterday in the telegraph on the inadequate state of the Royal Navy. Neither of the aircraft carriers are reportedly anything like equipped with planes to make their roles meaningful. Some fool(s) at the MoD prevented them being equipped with catapults so the choice of planes they can use at all is unsatisfactory. There should be a public enquiry into the huge waste and incompetence of procurement at the MoD over many years. The carriers, which if what is written is true are white elephants, the Ā£5BN wasted on the Ajax vehicle which doesnāt work, the Typhoon where we would have been much better of buying a cheaper and better US place. Etc. at the very least some knighthoods and pensions should be under threat even if we canāt get the money back.
September 15, 2023
Indeed the UK defence procurement is dire (incompetent and often corrupt with political interference too) rather like most of the rest of things run by the state sector & government.
September 15, 2023
Yes and India is a big risk to us too.
September 15, 2023
Cheese adds banned on the tube by the war on Londoners Sadik Khan it seems. I assume then that you also cannot now advertise packs of salt, butter, olive oil, cooking oils, bags of sugar, fatty meat, sausages, bacon, dates, grapes, raisonsā¦ too much salt, fat or sugar. Then again carbs rapidly turn to sugar when you eat them – so perhaps no potatoes, rice, pasta, root vegetables, couscous, beanā¦ adverts either? What a mad World he is generating. If you have to walk everywhere they will need food as fuel Khan.
Still best not get too glum, it is Friday another beautiful autumn day here yet again. Plus my apples, blackberries and hazel/cob nuts are all perfect.
A trip to the fishmonger, butcher, some cream, butter and refreshing dip in the sea is called for later I think.
September 15, 2023
They all supported Corbyn and this is still Corbyn’s Labour Party dressed in better clothes. Look at the front bench – does anyone want that? We are stuffed, either from an incompetent directionless Tory party or the left wing nuts of Labour. They say we get the government we deserve. No, we don’t we get what is foisted upon us by a corrupt voting system and the dreams of a few at the top of only two parties.
September 15, 2023
Yet more incompetence with the sick joke of HS2. Sunak has not even got the sense to ditch this appalling idiotic, vastly expensive, mad political project. Falling for the Sunk costs falacy. Or is it party donations and corruption perhaps? Few other explanations.
The dreadful Lord Adonis perhaps most to blame, enobled by the appalling Tony Blair I assume! Coming back as puppet master for Starmer soon?
September 15, 2023
+++
Guess what though..
I was just told by a plumber/gasman who serviced my lovely gas boiler just now that the powers-that -be are ā¦
DROPPING HEAT PUMPS!!
In favour of hydrogen boilers.
I noticed during the plague that gas/dentist/vet etc all knew what was happening long before unimportant old usā¦.so MAYBE it is true?
Still nothing they do now re Ukraine can undo the atrocious harm done.
They need to change their blueprint for war/āemergencyā itās all getting a bit transparent.
September 15, 2023
All we need then is some hydrogen mines but alas there are none or to crack fusion. Green Hydrogen is absurdly energy inefficient and we have no spare low carbon electricity anyway. Grey hydrogen is worse than burning methane. Not that CO2 is a serious problem anyway.
September 15, 2023
You get no q-dos on the EPC for a heat pump. Another little costly mistake by the know-it-alls in Westminster parroting āthe lineā.
September 15, 2023
I’m not sure what the “West” would do but i am fairly certain that the ‘Fab’ Factories on Taiwan would not survive any invasion
September 15, 2023
I would not be surprised to hear the semiconductor ‘fabs’ had been seriously vandalised immediate on Chinese attack. Who would want operational factories like TSMC plants left working for Chinese adoption?
September 15, 2023
I have long argued that we should have encouraged TSMC to build one here.
September 16, 2023
A long time ago AMD chose Dresden rather than more obvious countries. Even in California the problems with electrical supply pushed AMD into building in Austin, Texas.
What form would ‘encouragement’ have taken?
September 15, 2023
LL. What’s happening here is happening across the western world. We are heading for a WEF style tyranny which many nations of the world fear and others simply recognise and adapt their foreign policy to accordingly. New alliances (e.g. expanded,stronger BRICS) are forming in reaction to this. Possible land grabs by big players are also part of the jostling for position in this coming new world order.
September 15, 2023
Farage is wrong as usual. He thought the Brexit Referendum was lost and that we should take more Syrians. China does not need to āinvadeā Taiwan. Its show of military force is to stop the USA PROVOKING ANOTHER WAR! To keep the USA out of the area.
September 15, 2023
China’s economy is very fragile, with the property companies teetering on the brink. Banks cannot refuse to lend to well-connected property company owners.
Western sanctions would finish them off – and sanctions would inevitably follow any invasion of Taiwan. That would see internal strife and probably the ultimate demise of Communist Party control.
Which is why they won’t (or shoudn’t) do it. However, Putin’s invasion was a mistake, others may make other mistakes. However, this is an easier one to see for China.
September 15, 2023
Boris Johnson in the current issue of āThe Spectatorā continues to demand the UK pour funds into the Ukraine to maintain the war.
It seems to be a costly proxy war against Russia. The UK could make better use of those funds at home. We have no direct strategic imperatives in Ukraine.
September 15, 2023
I think he just hopped off there to get an honorary degree.
You wouldnāt really think it was safeā¦..
September 15, 2023
Boris Johnson can demand all he likes.
Whilst the UK continues to crumble. Any further billions given to Ukraine, whilst the UK falls apart will be met with increasing anger by the majority of people in the UK.
Giving the Ukraine billions does not fix our roads, schools, NHS and other public services busting apart at the seams.
It is about time some Politicians started to put the UK first, rather than continue to throw billions of OUR money around the world.
September 16, 2023
+1
September 15, 2023
It seems this is all Boris has left. The Ukraine but I wonder in history if it will be seen as a great thing.
Has he been writing about the mess he left shipping UK goods to Northern Ireland?
Has he been writing about why net zero and car bans had to be brought forward to 2030 without investment and plans to achieve it?
Has he been writing about why he buckled and stabbed Cummings in the back?
I still think getting rid of Boris was a mistake. It would have been far wiser if the party had put a ring around him and just used him as the figurehead, they managed to achieve it in a short space of time with Liz Truss.
September 15, 2023
As far as I’m concerned, Ukraine is a far-away country of which we knew little …. and I don’t see why WE should be funding their (or rather, Biden’s war) with Russia.
I’d far sooner discuss this: “The leaders of the Group of 20 nations have agreed to a plan to eventually impose digital currencies and digital IDs on their respective populations, amid concern that governments might use them to monitor their peopleās spending and crush dissent.”
https://dailysceptic.org/2023/09/14/g20-announces-plan-to-impose-digital-currencies-and-ids-worldwide/
Perhaps Sir John could tell us ….. did Sunak brief Conservative MPs on the G20’s plan to create and IMPOSE Digital Currencies and Digital IDs on British citizens and, if so, did he even once mention the need to get democratic consent?
September 15, 2023
Donna
Weāre directly responsible for keeping it going so we should accept for it?
September 15, 2023
+1. A far greater danger to this country’s citizens than Mr Putin.
September 15, 2023
I guess the answer to my question is “No.”
September 15, 2023
Surely the first duty of a government is to the security of its own people.
Why adopt a policy of intervention to secure territory abroadā¦
But allow borders to be destroyed at home?
Does this show a total lack of any moral code? Shifting sands?
Or desperation/obligation to follow global orders?
September 15, 2023
Everhopeful
Same answer, weāre directly responsible for keeping it going
September 15, 2023
Ahā¦so no outside influence you mean?
We are shovelling in the wherewithal to keep it going? (And the US?)
I have seen three theories.
1 side A is winning
2 side B is winning
3 It is all Scotch mist and there is much partying ( and all that goes with it).
Considering the plandemic who would believe anything?
September 15, 2023
A sort of peace happen on the island of Cyprus between Turkey and Greek Cyprus so probably it can be adopted in the Ukraine with elections in the occupied territories and if the majority of the Ukrainians vote to stay occupied by the Russians a bloody big fence erected to separate the two nations , then get Ukraine under the protection wing of NATO
September 15, 2023
Ukraine is already āunder the protective wing of NATO.ā There will be nothing left of Ukraine because Russia does not want to fight this war again. They have been attacked twice before thorough Ukraine. Ever heard of the Battle of Kursk? Itās where the Germans began to realize that they had lost the war. The Russians had dug in and the Germans fed themselves into the trap for slaughter, so like the story of Bakhmut and the Ukrainians under NATO orders – yes, itās NATO generals giving the battle orders. Giving the aerial information and even the ranges to the gunners.
Russia has taken out two of the three of these ācontrol and command centresā – so far.
September 15, 2023
To allow Putin to win would be akin to repeating the mistake made with Hitler at Munich. Far from satisfying Putin, a win would serve only to embolden him and put at risk incursions into the Baltic countries and other areas. History teaches us with crystal clarity that appeasement doesnāt work. Like Hitler, he needs to be stopped.
September 15, 2023
This comment seems to be from someone stuck in the 1930s. Living in the past can lead you to miss things, e.g. France lost in 1940 because its generals were still fighting the last war. The conflct going on in Ukraine is an entirely different kind of war from Hitler and WWII. It has nothing to do with dictators or appeasement. It’s all about NATO trying to weaken Russia, using Ukraine as a proxy to do so. You can see this for yourself if you read the US government-funded Rand Corporation’s 2019 report ‘extending Russia’ (online).
September 15, 2023
James 1
And how did you arrive at that conclusion?
September 15, 2023
I thought it was a very clear conclusion. Has logic failed you yet again?
September 15, 2023
Russia is clearly in the wrong by virtue of its invasion. However, we do not want to be in a situation where a war that is expensive for the UK to support continues for several years with one side or the other unwilling to negotiate a settlement. It is difficult. Perhaps more diplomacy is called for, to discover an acceptable outcome for both sides.
September 15, 2023
Most of those posting here suggesting we abandon Ukraine to its fate are clearly too young to appreciate or understand 20th century history.
Either that, or they fail to understand that diplomacy does not work with dictators. Munich taught us that !
The West cannot afford for Putin to retain the territory he has invaded. He only took his chance to invade when the West did nothing when he took Crimea.
September 15, 2023
NATO exists as a defensive alliance to deter Russia from attacking the West. NATO did not react when Russia seized Crimea in 2014; this has proved to be a major geopolitical blunder. Russian support of the “breakaway” regions of Donetsk and Luhansk clearly showed that Russia had territorial designs on the whole of Ukraine
Biden is at heart a pacifist. Had he rapidly re-inforced the Eastern NATO states as a deterent when it became obvious that Russia was about to invade Ukraine from Belarus, Putin would not have done so. The prospect of sanctions did not deter Putin.
By failing to support Ukraine in taking the war to legitimate targets in Russia itself, you are telling Russia to carry on bombing Ukraine hospitals, residential blocks, kintergartens, blood transfusion centres, public bomb shelters, essential infrastructure etc with impunity. Slava Ukraini for taking the war to the agressor
What are you proposing, that Ukraine should stop its counteroffensive and withdraw in case it upsets the war criminal Putin? Whose side are you on? Like it or not, NATO is already heavily involved and collectively we have spent at least $125billion in support. Are you proposing to write that much off?
Putin has to continue the war because if he loses in Ukraine, he also loses power. Heās just called up 300,000 conscripts and heās not going to stop now, he has to be defeated. Britain may now be involved in WW3, years of defence capability cuts have weakened us considerably – particularly the Army. We must re-arm, and quickly.
September 15, 2023
Sakara, for your information Ukraine’s ‘counteroffensive’ has been a bloody and expensive failure. Their troops are still stuck in the grey zone in front of the main Russian first defensive line. The truth is emerging in some of the US media and even in The Economist, I see, though not in the UK mainstream dailies yet.
Defending our contribution to continuing the slaughter as you do is a prime example of the ‘sunk cost’ fallacy. We must stop it now. All wars end in peace talks sooner or later – this one needs to, right away.
September 15, 2023
Using wind power? šš¤£
September 15, 2023
Exactly. The EU in the shape of the former Eastern Bloc member states, especially Poland, will be drawn in if Putin is seen to win. They know that they will be next, so it is vital that we all continue to support Ukraine.
September 15, 2023
The Ukraine war with Russia, is sadly an example of EU overreach.
The conflict began when Ukraine was fed the dream of becoming an EU state in waiting if they abandoned their Moscow sympathies and to do that they had to remove the Moscow sympathetic administration. Back in 2014 the EU under the foreign affairs commissioner Baroness Ashton set in train the initial uprising that removed the legitimate leader of Ukraine ( legitimate… for what that was worth) and the rest is sadly history.
Baroness Ashton is the cause of the conflict along with the EUs expansion ambitions.
We would be wise to take great care not to get even more engaged in that conflict than we are via supply of weapons.
This has all the indications of not ending well.
September 15, 2023
I do agree. The EU appointed the totally inexperienced Ashton, at Gordon Brown’s behest, to head their new “external action force” which was supposed to be a purely diplomatic service, despite the deeply prevocative name. She blundered in like a bull in a china shop and set alarm bells ringing in the already-paranoid corridors of Moscow.
Putin ultimately used the EU’s stupidity as the excuse he needed to take Crimea.
September 15, 2023
Sorry, that should have read the EU’s “External Action Service.”
September 15, 2023
The West needs some humility. It has after all made a massive mess of combat in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc, and the results of those endeavours are very problematic.
If you listen to what some in other countries say about the West, its hard not to have some sympathy with their views. They routinely take the Mickey out of our approach to trans issues, gay marriage, petty crime, open doors immigration, and so on, and for much of this they are correct, and the political elite in the West are wrong.
Ukraine/Russia is not a black and white as our media is painting it.
NATO and EU have repeatedly broken ādealsā that they had made with Russia not to expand their borders closer to Russia.
Our approach to places like Bulgaria, Romania, etc has been a nonsense. It is ridiculous to see supposed NATO countries flying MIG jets, with a population that openly tell us in the bars that we were stupid to let them in.
Our ruling class are just plain stupid.
And then we have the reality of the nuclear weapons. Our supposed leaders just donāt understand the issues they lead to.
We are being badly led. As is Russia. That the main problem. More combat is not going to fix that.
September 15, 2023
We’re supplying Ukraine with weapons, whilst Western Europe is funding Russia’s war with continuing purchases of Russian gas.
I though they were committed to renewables, or is that just a rod for the UK’s back?
September 15, 2023
Dave Andrews
God give me strength!
September 15, 2023
We don’t need to keep hearing about your anguish. Why come on here ? If you don’t like opinions go away!
September 15, 2023
They need the gas if they are going to remain capable of making weapons. Right now, flows are down sharply because it’s not yet winter and gas storage is full. Demand for LNG has been soaring in Asia because of strikes at Australian facilities. Europe would do best to continue with Russian supply when the Arctic route ices up by December.
September 15, 2023
What annoys me about the Ukraine Conflict.
When the UK was in WWII, we had to borrow and tax to fund the war. Any monies borrowed and loaned by other nations was expected to be paid back. The last of which was in 2006 to the U.S.
Move forward to modern day with the Ukraine conflict and it seems taxing and borrowing is no longer the way to fund a war/conflict. Instead just go round the world with your hand out and see you gives you what you want for ‘free’.
Are these many billion that the UK Government gives Ukraine, ever expected to be paid back?
I agree the Ukraine conflict is terrible and Russia needs bringing to heel. However other nations should not be subsidising their conflict with non repayable money. Any monies given should be in the form of loans that need a repayment schedule, once the conflict has ended.
September 15, 2023
I see only one way to end this vile and unjust war upon Ukraine. The removal of Putin. By whom and how, I can’t say. Hopefully someone from within Russia.
September 15, 2023
You might not get what you think if that happened – there might be a stringer tyrant in the wings!!
September 15, 2023
Old Albion
Never was so much rubbish talked in such a short time period!
And NO I havenāt said that before
September 15, 2023
any opinion you don’t share has to be rubbished, eh?
September 15, 2023
Those who remember the late 1930s and the consequences of not taking Hitler seriously will appreciate that Putin is better stopped in Ukraine than be allowed to further extend his ambitions.
Putin has taken his war to Ukraine I see nothing wrong with the Ukrainians taking it to Russia or NATO counties supplying the training and means to do so. I equate Kim Jong Un with Mussolini, a fart in a bottle, making approaches for his own ultimate benefit. China is different, but I do not see them getting heavily involved, particularly as their economy is slowing.
I think we need Trump back in the White House. There is nothing like a useless Biden to encourage the risk takers. I am in no douubt that physically and mentally he is well last his sell by date.
September 15, 2023
@ agricola – And those who remember the 1940’s might appreciate that had we not intervened at all Hitler and Stalin may well have fought eachother to their mutual destruction with a cosnsequent post-war world rather better for the UK(and most if not all others) than it actually was.
We have no need to rush off and fight others’ war for them: we have earned a break.
September 15, 2023
They had a peace pact. Then Hitler attacked Russia – through Ukraine.
September 15, 2023
Sir John
Yes a dilemma, all we do know is that in cases of conflict all truth goes out the window.
What it does highlight is how run down what used to be the UK armed forces has become. There is no longer enough front line man power to assist in situations such as āflood defencesā I am surprised that with all the commitments made on our brave people they can still turn up to all the tourist pomp and ceremony. We donāt even have the numbers that could contain a riot at Wembley Stadium.
Then you add in all the bumbling mistakes handed out by the MOD, you see the despair and why the lack of interest when it comes to recruiting. Reduce the front line increase the MOD, how come the reduction in MOD staff isnāt commiserate with the frontline? Oh.. I forgot this Conservative Government is all about recruit and grow its direct labour force that has no obligation to deliver anything way beyond, needs and what the country can afford.
September 15, 2023
As you say, there is no appetite within NATO for actually joining this war, but if nations (rightly, I think; it is not our quarrel), are not prepared to join the conflict, then they should not act to prolong it, and the misery it causes, by supplying arms to one side or the other. In my view doing so is immoral.
September 16, 2023
Ah but we don’t get the body bags coming back here, you see. Meanwhile Kiev is building the largest military cemetery in Europe, but it’s Ukrainians dying, not our kids. So that’s OK?
September 16, 2023
The new ārecruitsā are required to agree that their bodies will not be recovered but in due course āploughed inā.
The Russian mines switch themselves off on command. So Russia might recover the bodies but they might not be identifiable.
September 15, 2023
Provided always it does not oblige the UK to do anything, who cares how NATO proceeds?
The UK should long ago have set itself some war aims, those including keeping Biden busy and distracted, harming the EU, and reaping such rewards as can be made to come our way from the fault lines fracturing the international community. Morally we might also look to foster any credible peace initiatives.
As for the big issue of the displacement of people, let us hope the UK government is constrained in its usual antics by the lack of available four star hotel capacity.
September 15, 2023
Sir John,
I agree with you about the senseless slaughter and destruction. This all could have ended early last year with the agreement between Ukraine and Russia. It had already been initialled and was ready for signing, when suddenly Boris Johnson made a surprise visit to Kiev. The purpose of his visit was to deliver a message from Joe Biden, Victoria Nuland and the neocons in Washington. No peace deal. The west will supply Ukraine with money, weapons and support, but only if the war continues. No one knows how many Ukrainians have died since then. The Ukrainian government refuses to say. There should be an investigation into Boris Johnson’s role in unnecessarily prolonging this catastrophe. I would put him in the same category as Tony Blair.
September 15, 2023
71,000 Ukrainian dead since 4th June 2023 – the start of their ācounter offensiveā.
September 15, 2023
Sir John please dont let Russian propaganda use your website.
Russia has lost 100s of thousands dead multiples of the dead dreadfully have been maimed. Before this war Russia had the worst peacetime population drop in its history. It then lost 1 million to covid and now 1 million have fled to avoid fighting Putins war. Russian male life expectancy is low.
For belligerent occupation one needs multiples of an invading force. Russia doesnt have it. Russias dreadful behaviour guarantees no Ukrainian will let invading Russians stay in any part of Ukraine. No one can give parts of Ukraine away. The bereaved will not have it. So do not waver. Russia has to leave Ukraine all of it. After all at any time the Kremlin can just announce it has done what it intended and leave. Russia can go home and have a parade.
September 15, 2023
Frances
You still donāt get it do you?
September 15, 2023
Francis free speech is now a rare thing in the āfree westā. You are free to parrot the Neo-Con lines repeated by the BBC and others. But if you have any humanity you would abhor the suffering of the Ukrainian people who are experiencing a genocide! The screams of solidiers and the calls for ātourniquetsā seemingly the only medical equipment to hand. Watch some of the films taken by Ukrainians of the front line! 500,000 Ukrainians died and wounded so far, 71,000 dead since 4th June 2023. That attrition for you. This is not a game!
Of course 25,000 Russians are dead too, but they have 1,000 volunteers a week signing contracts with the Russian Army. Ukraine is inflicting a general mobilisation! 16 year olds, women and cripples!
How does that sit with your fantasy of Ukrainian victory over Russia? Nazi Germany could not beat Russia!
September 15, 2023
I admire Elon Musk not allowing the Ukraine to use his gifted Starlink for war purposes.
I wonder if Trump could end the war as he claims, what would he be expecting the Ukraine to give up to Putin to achieve that?
These adventures always seem to be led by America and we just follow along.
September 15, 2023
I suspect the roots of this war go back a long way. The fact that we are where we are is not helped by the personal adventurism of politicians. You don’t have to like or approve Putin’s actions, but with maturer, wiser statesmen at the helm, the west could have understood and contained him – a big ‘ask’ in this present world!
Nothing can justify the senseless destruction and slaughter now taking place. It is a tragedy for all humanity, including Russia. Hungry mouths from the disruption of the region’s agriculture will not be confined to Africa, either. And all this, on top of the Net Zero and other madness. The world is in a far more dangerous place than most realize.
Meanwhile, if they value freedom and prosperity in line with your blog, Sir John, our political leaders need to work out a way of bringing the war to an end as soon as possible. Words such as ‘appeasement ‘and ‘pride’ should be dropped, whilst realism, balance, compromise and justice are upheld. ‘Victory’ over Russia could destabilize the world even more. Have we forgotten, in the 1940’s, they fought the eastern flank at great cost?
The phrase ‘perplexity of nations’ comes to mind, and it’s clear the wheels are set in motion. Time to look up!
September 15, 2023
If Russia is not stopped in Ukraine it will be our children fighting in Europe again. The only way Putin stays in power is by blaming the West for his failures at home. He has failed Russians in every possible way. The cause of the war is that no one wants Russian poverty, oppression ,and shorter lives.
September 15, 2023
Putinās party has swept the boards in countrywide elections yesterday. The Russian people have only one complaint p that he is not aggressive enough and that he must put an end to this war (by defeating the west). What will āour childrenā fight with? Shovels? There are no factories, the EU produces 4,000 shells a month! Russia fires 20,000 a day! Their Kinjhal hypersonic missiles are unstoppable. We have not developed one, we are trying but they fail. We hope to have a hypersonic in 4 years time!
Your mindless warmongering will kill off what is left of Europe after the mad Greens have inflicted devastation with net zero.
September 15, 2023
“Lose the War” ?
No one is going to lose this war! If you define “Losing this war”, as something, then one of the two sides will have to achieve something!
Within the next two months, the weather will change, and the Ukraine’s Offensive will stop/slow !
The next GE within the USA will be the next significant change!
Russia/Putin would be happy with the Ethnic Russian territory it holds already, so that could form the basis for talks? Turkey!
I would say, the next option, as an expansion, for Russia, would be a second front (It looks as if it would prefer to stay as it is)!
But, for Ukraine, they will keep Probing along the existing front, and try to find a weakness to push against!
The ‘Offensive’ will start to run out of ammo/Personnel(?), soon, but I think Congress is not going to support them much longer, and that will be key (The USA People are getting resentful of all the pointless waste) !
For the Ukrainians, the question must be, for how much longer can they continue their Offensive, and at what cost, to it’s People or financial cost, and what will it achieve, what can it achieve?
So, ask your selves those questions?
Will it really regain it’s territory?
PS: I do not accept Russia will want to expand it’s offensive into any NATO territory! Not as part of this conflict! And, not for sometime! In a few years time, may be, but not until after they have recovered, and learnt the lessons of Ukraine!
For Russia; As I have said above; Maybe a second front, in Ukraine, but they already have what they wanted!
For NATO, and us, we would do well to start saving our resources, rebuilding the BA, but go for growth, because with whatever happens next, without growth, we will be doing nothing!
The Principles will only be maintained in a longer game!
BR
RDM.
September 15, 2023
Russia may be different. Its population is falling unusually fast and may drop to 130m by mid-century. The decline is associated with increased misery: the life expectancy at birth of Russian males plummeted from 68.8 in 2019 to 64.2 in 2021, partly because of covid, partly from alcohol-related disease.4 Mar 2023
September 15, 2023
I’ll leave aside whether this is has become a useful proxy war by the West to weaken Putin and if it is backfiring by encouraging ties between Russia, China, and India.
Though restrictions on NATO have been spelt out above, they are presumably giving lots of intelligence and military planning aid.āAnd as they have the capacity for handling NATO at war, Ukraine must be benefiting from the high ratio focussed on mainly them plus the surrounding countries.
Despite this, progress has been slow.āMinefields have done their job in slowing advances by needing careful clearing.āBut warfare can be like Hemingway’s description of how bankruptcy arrives: gradually, then suddenly.āWe could yet see significant strategic gains and accompanying Russian collapses.
We’re told the winter will make progress difficult.āNeither side will cede before then.āIf it is harsh enough to give a seasonal stalemate then perhaps that’s the time to weigh up the odds of forcing Russia from Ukraine versus the likelihood of continuing Western support and whether talks should be attempted.
September 15, 2023
It is Putin who is the problem . The average Russian is drawn into the fear of control that grips their country ; any sort of protest there ends up in jail and punishment . The war in Ukraine is an extension of Putin’s misguided ego and dictatorial mania . Putin has drawn the entire world into the turmoil . We must stand firm against any individual who stamps out democracy . The Ukrainians are resisting Russian aggression and we have no choice other than to support them .
September 15, 2023
Sir John, sadly you position and view of the the war between Russia and Ukraine reflects the group think of the UK Parliament and the Western Political class in general with a very few exceptions. It takes no responsibility for being one of the factors which started the war in the first place. Which actually started in 2014 with the illegal overthrow of the democratically elected government of Ukraine. The shelling of ethnic Russian Ukrainians by the Kiev Government is ignored. Likewise the fact that the Kiev Government wants to remove all Russian culture from Ukraine. Likewise that Crimea was part of Russia until given to Ukraine by a Ukrainian President of the USSR.
Russia has got Crimea back and secured the parts of Ukraine where the majority are ethnic Russian Ukrainians. This was probably the aim in the first place. The Russian view being freeing the Ethnic Russians from the control of the Nazi Government in Kiev.
The hostilities could have ended with the Minsk Agreement which was not supported by the West (and we now know why).
There was almost a cease fire but Boris Johnson made a special effort to go to Kiev to tell the Ukrainians to fight on.
You have to ask is the aim of the West to save Ukraine or Destroy Russia ?
As usual Parliament puts the interests of its citizens last. It can’t stop the invasion from across the channel but happy to fuel the death and destruction in Ukraine and Russia and move us nearer day by day to WWIII.
The answer is simple. Stop supplying weapons to Ukraine on condition of a ceasefire. And ask the people via a UN supervised referendum if they want to be part of the Russian Federation or Ukraine ?
The big problem here is the current Western Political Class will loose face and may prefer to continue with the death and destruction until a nuclear war.
September 15, 2023
It is not just the current Western Political Class, but also the political lobbyists and donors from the Military Industrial Complex. War is profitable. A forever war is very profitable, and straight out of 1984.
September 15, 2023
Poland and the Baltic States are in no doubt about the need to support Ukraine. Nor did Finland and Sweden who decided to join NATO. In my opinion they are correct in their view of Russian intentions and the UK is right to support Ukraine.
The notable military development is the emergence of drones as a significant instrument of war. That said defence has the upper hand leading to stalemate. It will end when the the parties are exhausted or internal political change results in a change of policy in either Russia or Ukraine.
September 15, 2023
You know that Poland has banned Ukrainian grain? Polish mercenary today complaining that the 24 Poles killed in his unit on the Front line have not been compensated – USD 400,000 he claims was promised.
September 15, 2023
Not just Poland but other EU grain producers are also objecting to imports into the EU from Ukraine because it threatens their markets. Before the invasion Ukraine exported it’s agricultural products by sea through the Black Sea. That industry is severely curtailed because of the war, the destruction of port facilities by Russia and the limitations of the grain deal while it lasted. The potential of exports by rail to the EU from Ukraine is limited because the rail guage changes, making shipments very expensive.
September 15, 2023
This war was avoidable and predictably itās a disaster for Ukraine. Under the guise of NATO this is yet another US proxy war and sadly it follows previous catastrophic failures, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Libya. Todayās tragedy has its gestation in the years following the collapse of the USSR, when US leadership promised Russia there would no eastern expansion of NATO. Now NATO surrounds Russia on its western and northern borders. Ukraine was always a red line for Russia and western leadership knew this. Since the 2014 US backed coup in Kiev and the duplicitous Minsk2 āagreementā America has continued to press for more eastern expansion of NATO. All attempts by Russia to reach an agreement have been ignored or rebuffed by America. At the peace negotiations in Ankara in early 2022 Zelensky publicly stated Ukraine could remain neutral and his Country would cede ethnic Russian Crimea and Donbas. An agreement looked promising, however, this was scuppered by Bidenās State Department and the killing and destruction continued. Today there is no diplomacy to stop the slaughter and Russia controls the Donbas and Crimea regions. Hundreds of thousands have been killed, much of Ukraine destroyed. For what? Furthermore itās seriously dangerous for Europe with the risk of escalation ever present. Itās high time UK and European leaders intervened and told America this conflict must stop and negiotations started.
September 15, 2023
+1
And if the west wants the Grain Corridor reinstated itās time they delivered their side of the bargain.
September 15, 2023
Ukraine is fighting their and our battle against Putin, we must give them all the tools, ammunition including F-16ās
September 15, 2023
Like you, Sir John, I hate war and the death and destruction it causes. Ukraine was part of Russia until 1991, and gave up the Russian Nuclear weapons stationed in Ukraine in 1994 in return for a guarantee Russia would never invade. Putin is the problem. Although you can argue that Ukraine’s actions provoked the war to some extent, Putin is the problem. Until he is gone, the war will continue. But bullies will only back down if confronted with superior force. If Putin wins in Ukraine, he will want to invade other countries formerly under Russian control.
The West through NATO should tell him he has 7 days to stop the war and remove his army from Ukraine. If he does not then he faces the full force and might of NATO until every square mile of Ukrainian land is recovered and free. Not invading Russia but hitting its power and water supplies with missiles as it has done to Ukraine.
September 15, 2023
Iām well aware of the need for NATO to proceed cautiously regard this despicable preening aggression by Putin (not Russia) but the United Nations have been totally void of any action that may bring a quick end to this flagrant act of war by Putin. Begs the question why are we, Great Britain, still spending a huge amount of money to be a Member of this toothless, inactive Club?
September 15, 2023
The best long-term prospect for Ukraine is that it enjoys good relations with its large, powerful and economically significant neighbour. That means not posing a security threat to Russia by including in its constitution a desire to join NATO. It also means not persecuting the Russian-speaking minority in the east of its territory. At least the latter should be easier to achieve, because Ukraine has already signed up to it in the the 2015 Minsk accords, which just needed to be enforced by its guarantors, France and Germany. Then Putin would not have had R2P, as used by NATO in Serbia and Libya, as an excuse for this war.
September 15, 2023
The fundamental question is what would the USA do if Mexico had been taken over by Russia in the same way, and to the same extent, that the EU, the UK, and the USA have taken over Ukraine? We all know, because the Monroe Doctrine tells us. Saying the Russians should not have invaded Ukraine is demanding them to be more forbearing and more trusting than we are.
The policy that the UK government has adopted is the biggest foreign affairs blunder at least as far back as the Suez debacle. It has pushed together a coalition against Western interests that will harm us for decades. We could have carried on loathing Putin and sneering at Russia without fighting them, by being neutral and insistently demanding a ceasefire and amassing a global coalition to that effect. But not since we joined one side. That just looks biased to the rest of the world.
September 15, 2023
How should NATO proceed, Sir John? Probably how its strategists and analysts are reportedly advising it to do at the moment: go for freezing the conflict, rather like what happened with Korea. The Ukraine summer offensive has been a costly failure, and a continuing war of attrition with a much larger enemy can surely only lead to defeat.
At least a ceasefire will bring an end to the appalling casualties suffered by the Ukrainian side, and the country will have a pause for reflection about what outcome it would eventually settle for. That will also be an opportunity for elections to be held, which have been postponed under the present state of emergency. From NATO’s point of view, which is tightly connected with Biden’s re-election chances, this I think is the best that can be hoped for at present: not a victory, but at least not an outright humiliating defeat like Afghanistan was.
September 15, 2023
I contend it is very important Ukraine wins and would welcome the overthrow of Putin himself. I am very open to sending in NATO forces to achieve that. We have the present problem because nothing effective was done about the Russian seizure of Crimea in 2014 and the subsequent war in the Donbas.
At the very least we should supply more and ever better Western weaponry to Ukraine and turn a very blind eye to the use of British weaponry by Ukraine against Russian territory.
September 15, 2023
It is said by some you learn by reflecting on history. Russia invaded the Crimea, the EU bandied together and said thatās OK you can keep Ukrainian territory and we will support your endeavour.
Then again Kiev was the Capitol of the original Russia, not Moscow.
September 15, 2023
Perhaps, Ian, the EU realised the matter was more complex than what you say here, and they had to tread rather carefully. There was an internationally witnessed referendum in Crimea in 2014 where the vast majority of the votes were for re-joining Russia. (As they had been in the 1991 referendum, ignored by Kiev.) Whether that actually influenced the EU, I don’t know for sure. I hope I’m right, though, in thinking that respect for the outcome of a referendum matters to a follower of this website.
September 15, 2023
Well what helped Russia win that Referendum was that Ukraine had cut off the water supply to Ukraine, Russia shipped water in in tankers. Russia could never allow a NATO base in Sevastopol – that was the western intention.
September 16, 2023
Actually Novgorod was the original capital of Rus and the original Kiev was sacked and burned down by the Mongols in the early 13th century by which time the capital had already moved to Vladimir – and later to Moscow then to St Petersburg and then back to Moscow.
September 15, 2023
I can see no reason why Ukraine should not fire NATO weapons into Russia to destroy military targets. Russia fires into Ukraine every day on civil and military targets. I think NATO rather meekly bought this Putin bluff that the consequences would be dire.
It is vital for Ukraine to destroy as much Russian war material as they can before it reaches the Russian front lines.
September 15, 2023
It would mean that NATO was officially a party to the war. You want Russia to have the corresponding right to fire into NATO countries?
September 15, 2023
If Ukraine doesnt deal with Russia in Ukraine it will be OUR young people fighting them in Europe (again). All those wanting to leave Ukraine to Russia may not be British at all . They certainly dont have any young people who will be sent to fight.
September 15, 2023
You are impertinent. And a warmonger, there will be no hand to hand fighting, just the destruction of the U.K. with weapons fired from a long way away.
No true British person wants Britain beaten, and we are being beaten for no purpose at all. Russia is no threat to us.
September 15, 2023
Frances we did not fight the Russians in Europe. We the British fought WITH the Russians AGAINST GERMANY.
September 15, 2023
“the few who take the Russian side and say Russia is close to victory.”
I do not side with Russia, but they are militarily close to victory, assuming that what they want is Crimea+Donbass. If they want to control Ukraine and occupy Kiev, that is much less likely.
And without siding with Russia, an understanding of the historically shifting fortunes of the Ukraine is needed, and of the paranoia Russians feel when looking west. Half of Ukraine traditionally belonged to Poland and the Austrian Empire, and before Stalin replaced its population Crimea was an international Black Sea port with a multi-ethnic population. It was only ceded to Ukraine when it was already a Soviet state, and then only because Ukrainian-born Kruschev was at the time the USSR President.
Putin’s naked motives are of course not based on historical nostalgia – he wants a grain-bowl for the Russian population and warm-water ports for the Russian Navy, and for the latter Sebastopol and Odessa are obvious targets.
September 15, 2023
He might get Sebastopol but he won’t get Odessa
There will eventually be an end to the war but there are some positives as well
Putin has got a bloody nose now and he won’t try this stuff again for a long time
also after Putin’s time neither will any other Russian leaders ever dare try this on
The border between Russia and Ukraine will be clearly defined and the russian notion of the “near Russia’ will be almost gone – Ukraine will be in NATO.
Better still others like China will think twice before starting something.
The Eu will expand and eventually get it’s own defence going to deter further invasions from wherever knowing that the US with people like Trump in charge cannot be relied on.
September 15, 2023
Sir John
You seem to be deliberately giving prominence to all the misinformed and incorrect posts
Anyone with a basic understanding of how the conflict began knows that this is absolutely factually incorrect
So what is your excuse for allowing it?
You canāt change history no matter how much you would like to
Or perhaps your knowledge is lacking?
And that is the FIRST time I have said THAT
Perhaps you donāt like anyone besting you?
September 15, 2023
++
Sincerely, you are fascinating me.
I wish you could be a bit more explicit.
I know you probably canāt beā¦.
I do so miss the free and easy ways of the early internet.
September 16, 2023
So all views except your non event pieces are incorrect and misinformed and must not be allowed. That answers some questions. Don’t know why SJR puts up with you insults, other than to show how ridiculous you are.
September 15, 2023
I would like to see the West supply Ukraine with the weapons it needs to re-establish its borders quickly. The US, UK and Russia guaranteed that in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum (whatever weasel words Merkel may now spout about “not really meaning it”).
Any territorial gain for Russia will ensure more of the same in a few years – history tells us that quite clearly. It will also strengthen Russia and weaken Ukraine, since the industrial and grain production areas are key resources for Ukraine and the world.
This is not only about now, it is also about the future. Appeasement never succeeds. Ideally, Russia no longer exists as a super-state after this. It is a hotbed of evil in the world, century after century. Currently, as a kleptocracy, effectively an empire run by organised crime, it is a danger to world peace and a source of endless cost and instability. We should not run away from the opportunity to change that.
Also, for those bleeding-hearted types who like to whine about rights of tiny minorities, why do they never spare a thought for the many peoples who were conquered by Russia (Muscovy) and forced to become part of the empire it calls a “federation”? Simply allowing Russia to regroup and continue as before is ducking a real ethical and humanitarian issue – and missing a golden opportunity to change the world for the better.
What happens to Russian nukes after it splits up? well, that can be handled – and needs to be handled better than it was when Ukraine was pressured to give up its nukes in exchange for the “guarantees” of the Budapest Memorandum. As we can see, they were worthless then and Ukraine knows that any further “guarantees” would be worthless now and in future. Ukraine knows that “a piece of paper”, as Zelensky put it, is worthless – Russia will not abide by its terms whenever it suits them.
The only possible negotiation must be about liberating/returning all Ukraine’s territory, including Crimea, and ensuring its security thereafter. Going forward, NATO membership is a must. Ukraine would be an invaluable ally, since Germany, France etc have been underspending for a long time and are to all intents and purposes, utterly unreliable – and in all probability quite useless in practice.
Ukraine will become a formidable bastion of European security if they win this war and fully liberate their territory.
September 16, 2023
There is not the remotest chance that Ukraine will win this war, XY. That is why what NATO does now is being urgently reconsidered by its leaders.
September 16, 2023
That is utter nonsense. Where is your evidence that anyone is “urgently reconsidering” NATO?
I follow current affairs closely and have seen no such thing – not since Trump warned Germany et al to stick to 2% of GDP on defence.
Russian trolls make assertions like you just made – trying to alter British minds.
Bottom line: Ukraine can and should win this war.
September 15, 2023
Highlighting the ignorance of your contributors lack of knowledge is rather cruel
Donāt you think?
September 15, 2023
P.S. To those who say that the conflict is “frozen” or that the Ukrainian counter-offensive is slow…
No, that’s not correct.
I have been following a number of non-UK sources on this since the 2022 invasion began and it is clear that Ukraine has the upper hand.
However, they are being asked to run a counter offensive without air superiority or long-rane strike capability. NATO doctrine states that air superiority is essential to such an operation, but we delay sending them the means to do so. We also imposed an arms embargo for many years such that Ukraine could only arm itself via domestic production.
Ukraine is, very sensibly, prioritising lives over speed. They interdict logistics, remove air defences, proceed slowly, probing while also pinning enemy reserves in place. This is smart warfare, given where they are.
It seems to me that they are awaiting the F16 delivery before speeding up, but they are currently breaking through in the Melitopol axis which would allow them to prevent the Russians supplying Crimea by land around teh Mariupol direction. Once there, they can destroy the Kersch bridge with ease and Crimea will be effectively cut off. This is smarter than undertaking an attack against very well-prepared defences.
Another key point is that the Russian 3-layer defences were prepared by General Surovikin (who was removed after the Wagner revolt) and running the defence has now been taken over by Gerasimov. Surovikin intended the 3 layers to be used to retreat through the layers and attrite the advancing enemy as they go, with the text book 2/3 forces starting assigned in layer 1 and the remainder in layer 2. But that’s not how Gerasimov is using these structures…
Gerasimov is running an active defence, with all his forces in layer 1, not only defending but also running couter-attacking manoeuvres. These are very costly in men and equipment.
What this means is that the battles for layer 1 are likely to be most of the overall battle for control. The loss of vehicles in the gerasimov strategy means any retreat to layers 2 and 3 would mostly be on foot, which is now almost impossible. We may see an increased tempo when a significant breakthrough occurs, especially if Biden green-lights long range ATACMS missiles for HIMARS.
Ukraine can win this – is winning this – we just need to give them what they need to do it quickly. The “useful idiots” to borrow (part of) Lenin’s words who talk about nuclear escalation have not read the tea leaves – or Russia’s own stated use of such weapons (they see it as a deterrent, not as a weapon). It won’t happen – they have threatened it already and drawn back every time (apart form anything else, they know the consequences would be calamitous for them – the response would probably not be nuclear, it would likely be a convetinal response eliminating the Ukrainian armies and their Black Sea fleet).
Give them the weapons, let them finish the job rapidly.
September 15, 2023
There can be no doubt that Putin started this war and that it was right for us to assist Ukraine to defend itself and remove the invaders.
To do nothing would be to appease this evil and it would become the deja vu 20th Century WW2 beginning all over again. Hitler invaded Czech Sudetenland unopposed then and the rest of Europe did nothing to help the Czechs.
I have no doubt Hitler saw us and the rest as weak because we did not challenge him at the time. So he took it as carte blanche to conquer the rest of Europe without challenge. Likewise Putins imperialist ambitions.
However, I do feel we are showing some signs of appeasement by blocking our weapons from being used against Russian territory. Putin has no such qualms in demolishing hundreds of civil buildings and residences as well as committing serious atrocities along the way and no doubt sees NATO allies reluctant to allow a reciprocal from the Ukraine as a form of appeasement. You’ll not get a cease fire until such time he is actually forced into it.
When it comes, at all costs, no Ukraine land (including Crimea) should be handed to Putin lest the local populaton require it.
He and the world must see that in the 21st Century such aggressive and beligerent action is NEVER rewarded.
September 15, 2023
Cracked record.
Politicians have to work in the real world, Derek, and it’s messy. That’s the only reeason I have a bit of sympathy for them.
September 18, 2023
LOL. Go tell the Ukraine people they do not live in the “real world”.
September 15, 2023
I do not believe Putin’s Russia should be compared to 1930’s Germany. Reportedly, there is even evidence the Nazi jack-boot could be on the other foot. Furthermore, after the horrendous carnage of WW1, reluctance to repeat the exercise was not appeasement. We were not ready to go to war against such a formidable enemy at that point, and the delay proved vital to any chance of ultimate victory. Even then, it was a close run thing, with many providential deliverances such as the miracle of Dunkirk and the Battle of Britain, not to mention Hitler’s misguided switch to deal with Russia first. There are no genocidal concentration camps today, either. Therefore I say there was surely no comparison.
September 16, 2023
That’s rather blinkered thinking. Just being abloe to point to one or two minor differences does not make the comparison faulty.
The important aspects are the appeasement factors – as Derek pointed out, with Hitler it was Czech Sudetenland, with Putin it was Georgia, Crimea… then we acted when he invaded Ukraine.
In WWII it was when Hitler invaded Poland, with whom we had a treaty, so we entered the war because we honour our treaties. With Ukraine, it was largely due to Zelensky – if he had taken Biden’s offer to run to the USA and set up a “government in exile” then we would never have had the chance to oppose Putin. And he’s be at it again in a few years, from a strategically stronger position.
Pushing him out of Crimea and the Donbas is important. They are strategic assets which the West cannot afford to cede to an aggressive power such as Russia (especially with another watching and calculating – i.e. China).
September 17, 2023
The motives may not be similar ( although I am not sure about that) but the sad outcome is the same , destruction and disregard for human life .Whilst some try to analyse , it is probably a case of analysing propaganda . We simply do not know what is going on in the minds of people too heartless to consider human life as being more important than deliberate violence.
September 16, 2023
Quite right Derek, appeasement never works, it only postpones a war and makes it harder to win (by giving up strategic position, territory, resources and infrastructure that benefits the enemy instead of “us”).
September 15, 2023
Peace is the best solution to war. If people are in conflict, a contest like chess could be used to decide the victor. Wars eventually end in peace anyway, so opponents should choose a safer method of settlement before rushing to destroy each other.
September 15, 2023
The conservative woman is the place to go for a civilised discussion
No censorship, excellent contributors, 95% understand the reason for the war in Ukraine
The left wing trolls get short shrift
Anyone can make contributions, some truly harrowing tales, sympathetic suggestions
The very opposite of the environment that exists here
Reply Good bye. This site is clearly not for you.
September 16, 2023
It is very difficult to have a reasonable public debate on anything in the UK nowadays. Point out a strength or advantage russia mighht have and one is immediately acuused of being a Putin stooge. Any military commander knos it is essential to understand both the strengths and advantages as well as weaknesses of one’s enemy. But in the public debate that is not allowed. A military commender also needs to understand the enemy’s motiviation. But again, no hint of understanding of Russia’s viewpoint or genuine interests is allowed in the public debate. For example one is not allowed to say, although it is factually correct, that NATO’s often stated intention to bring Ukraine into NATO and station nuclear weapons in Ukraine is exactly analagous to what Soviet Russia under Khruschev tried to do in Cuba in 1962.
The background is that NATO led negotiations with Russia and the settlement of a new order in Europe after the collapse of the USSR and WP in 1989. The EU kept out of it. The main issues were the re-unification of Germany and arms reduction in which Russia was fully supportive and co-operative. The fact is that the way NATO expanded eastwards while saying it would not was seen as double standards by Russia – not just the leadership, such as it was in a collapsed state, but by Russians in general. US strategy change during the 1990s from one of co-operating on new structures in Europe such as the Partnership for Peace, to one of containment of Russia, cutting it off from access to the world’s maritime trade routes and, in effect, re-establishing in Europe the Iron Curtain a few hundred km further east.
One of the stupidest recent statements by a British Government minister was that of James Heappey writing in The Telegraph on 29 January 2022 that Putin needs to understand NATO is not expansionist. If you believe that you are in fantasy land. The record speaks for itself. Why should Russia not perceive it as a threat?
It is absurd after a string of Western interventionist failures from Viet Nam onwards to claim the West is right, always right. It blunders continually.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was an opportunity seized upon by Germany and the EU to attempt to reduce their dependence on China for Green Energy. Germany had refused to supply weapons but three days after the invasion they blackmailed Zelensky: he could have the weapons if he signed away the future governance of Ukraine to the EU. Why? Germany and the EU want control of Ukraine’s vast mineral reserves of which lithium and rare earths alone are valued at up to US$12 trillion. In June or July this year, Von Der Leyen announced, already in charge, that post war reconstruction would be directed towards delivering Green Energy. These resources will be exploited at huge profit to largely German industry, funded by international aid.
Ukraine provides cover for German re-armament. Its defence budget is set to double by 2030. Scholz declared that Germany will have the most powerful armed forces in Europe and will lead European defence – the natural leader of European defence. VDL and others are repeatedly calling for QMV to replace unanimity in EU policy areas of defence, security and foreign affairs. It will happen. Germany has the largest population and so will have the greatest weight in QMV.
The EU has long been working towards building political, military and industrial structures that can replace those of NATO in Europe. The US Democrats – and some Republicans – want a unified politico-military structure in Europe. With VDL becoming NATO Secretary General, these moves will be facilitated leading to the EU representing its member states in NATO as it does in the WTO.
Although the EU has for years led military operations overseas Ukraine is now the opportunity for it to become a fully fledged military power led, if Scholz has his way, by Germany.
All these developments are open. There is nothing secret about them. Yet the UK seems blissfully unaware of what is going on in the EU and its aims in respect of Ukraine.
It is also blissfully unaware of the implications for the EU of Ukraine’s joining the EU. Apart from the vast sums of money that will be needed – and no doubt happily given by the UK and spent to the benefit of the EU – the Ukrainians will find out the truth that their promised and hard fought for independent sovereignty is an illusion. They will never get it. Instead they will find themselves ruled by an unaccountable self interested foreign elite in Brussels who know little if anything about their country. They will come to resent it bitterly to the point of making Poland and Hungary appear ardent supporters of the EU.
It may be the UK’s position that only Russia and Ukraine can rightly decide whether and on what terms to start peace negotiations but Ukraine is now an EU Accession State and it will be the German led EU, with US support, that really decides.
September 16, 2023
The EU didn’t exist in 1989 (pre Maastricht).
There is no suggestion that NATO wishes to station nuclear weapons in Ukraine. NATO doesn’t need to do that. Ukraine would be a superb buffer for conventional warfare deterrence – and, of course, it deserves (and has every right) to join a defence alliance for the security of its own people.
And let us be clear: NATO is a *DEFENSIVE* alliance. That position should not be confused with actions that may be taken by some of its members individually or collectively in various theatres around the world.
September 16, 2023
Ukraine can win a war of attrition as long as we supply them with enough weapons to keep killing Russians. It’s like Vietnam – there is a difference in motivation between a dog fighting for its dinner and a dog fighting for its life.
We could do more to get Russians to overthrow Vladimir Putin (1) Demand 100% reparations from Russia for all the war damage they have caused (2) Say that Russian assets frozen will be permanently seized as a down payment (3) Say that sanctions will be fully maintained until Russia has payed all of its debts (4) Hint that we might relax these stringent demands if Putin is replaced and Russia vacates all of Ukraine territory.