It is one thing for the Prime Minister to want to stop the small boats. Who sensibly disagrees? It is another to voice the right way to do this, and to gather the votes needed to bring it about. The draft law he has proposed now has to find its way through both the Commons and the Lords.
In the Commons the government has a current majority of 56, meaning it can carry any legislation as long as fewer than 28 Conservative MPs vote with the Opposition, or fewer than 56 abstain.
This Parliament has been characterised by more MPs than usual losing their party whips for actual or alleged misconduct. There are currently 18 Independent MPs though none were elected as that. One is an SNP MP who disagreed with his party whip and wants to be Independent. One is the former Leader of the Labour party, now in policy exile. There are 9 Labour MPs suspended from the whip and 7 Conservatives, with one from Plaid. This may give the government a little more leeway on its majority.
The small boats Rwanda Bill will be difficult for the government to whip. One group of  Conservative MPs is annoyed that it does override some Human Rights legislation and gives stronger instructions to courts. Another group of Conservative MPs thinks the Bill needs to be tougher to rule out any legal challenge to the policy to ensure success. The attitude of Labour becomes an important consideration in working out what might happen. If 198 Labour MPs all oppose the Bill, with the other Opposition parties also likely to, then the government does need to reduce the number of rebels to under 28. If Labour abstain then the government can afford 126 rebels before losing.
There are 98 Commons Ministers who have to vote the government line. The last list of Parliamentary Private Secretaries to Ministers showed 41 in post. We are awaiting an updated list which may be longer. They too have to vote with the government. So to win a vote the government needs to persuade just 84 backbench Conservatives to support if Labour abstains, but 181 if Labour opposes.
The One Nation Group that wants a weaker Bill puts out it has 103 supporters. This is greatly overstated. I do not believe anything like 103 Conservative MPs will vote against the Bill because it is too strong. The likely effective rebel voting strength of One Nation is below the 28 vote threshold to overturn the majority. It also is the case that a disproportionate number of the One Nation group are Ministers so they could not vote against even if they wanted to. Of course if they staged a number of resignations to vote against that could destabilise the government badly. That seems very unlikely as they have a strong position within the government and seem to like being Ministers .
There are considerably more Conservative MPs than 28 who want a stronger bill than the government version . Whether they will allow 2nd reading of this bill and seek amendments remains to be seen. Some  will think a quite strong bill worth a try. Others will think it futile to enact another bill that just gets bogged down in courts again.
The Lords has its majority of peers who always want to do down the UK and who support every international criticism and attack on us. There are plenty of peers who put the wishes of lawyers acting for illegal migrants above the wishes and needs of legally settled UK workers and taxpayers. Getting any bill that toughens our law against illegal small boat operators and their paying passengers through the Lords requires good majorities in the Commons and plenty of political will by the  government.
Tomorrow I will write about the PM’s  policy options.
December 9, 2023
Good morning.
We have, it has been alleged, sent Rwanda some ÂŁ240 million pounds. For what ? That same money could have been used to build shelters and accomodation for ex-servicemen. It could have been used to set up detention centres on remote Scottish Islands to hold all those illegals, and so on.
This SCAM, which will not work, has been an expensive and monumental distraction from the real issue of MASS IMMIGRATION both legal and illegal. An overly complex and expensive exercise when the simple solution would be to set up asylum processing centres in France on the understanding that those arriving illegally are sent straight back.
No wonder why we are in so much debt and have to have high taxes to pay for your parties incompetence.
And as for those wanting to give Rushi a little more time ? Well he has had a lot more time then Liz Truss MP and has done even worse.
How are them polls looking, Richard1 ?
December 9, 2023
An excellent point, Mark. Parliament is sovereign so all we have to do is pass an Act telling France to set up asylum processing centres and take all the people we don’t want, and the problem is solved. Why has no one thought of this?
December 9, 2023
Indeed the Government even think they can change the laws of physics by just passing laws so deluded are they.
A rather mad discussion of net zero and migrants on Question Time. The only sensible contributions coming from Peter Hitchens – also on was Johnny Mercer MP; Anneliese Dodds MP; writer and deluded climate zealot George Monbiot
Monbiot demanded we leave all fossil fuels in the ground and unless we do that we have no hope of preventing climate breakdown. He even thinks it is the most important predicament humanity has ever faced otherwise we will get âEarth Systems Collapseâ. Totally deluded mate go and study some physics – these deluded zoologist! He even claimed ârenewables are much cheaper than fossil fuelsâ – totally wrong when properly accounted for large amount of fossil fuel needed to build and maintain ârenewablesâ too.
John Mercer replied that ânobody disagrees with that destination and direction of travelâ well all sensible people who understand physics and energy engineering do mate. It is an insane and evil agenda.
Monbiot did sensibly points out the Sunak hypocrisy of his 200 seater private jet to COP. Not to mention Cameron, King Charles and hundreds of others.
December 9, 2023
So by the next election 6.5 million will be dragged into Huntâs 40% fiscal drag say the OBS from the Times today. A rise of more than 60% in five years. But it is not even just 40% income tax, it is over 60% when you add in both types of NI. So why do Hunt and Sunak keep saying/lying that they are âcutting taxesâ. Very few are fooled by these blatant lies or Sunak other empty pledges.
December 10, 2023
And. If you add on 9% tuition fee debt on top for Englandâs young, why bother working?
December 9, 2023
@LifeLogic – who voted George Monbiot as a voice, were is his constituency? He is on the BBC because he a raving left winger just like this Conservative Government â democracy doesnât count and is dismissed.
December 9, 2023
Simply, it would be in France’s interests to co-operate. But if they wanted to cut their nose off to spite us that would not be surprising. If this trade would stop, northern France would not have the camps and constant flow of migrants through their area. I am pretty sure the French people don’t want this in their land, but of course, like us, ordinary people don’t count except at election time. The trouble is with Remoaners, they have tunnel vision and no wider perspective and can only think of the glorious day when we will be subsumed into the evil empire once again and our money used to support the Dodo countries. The EU is already borrowing over its ability to repay to try to cajole it’s members into complying with its wishes and is heading for disaster, with its major paymasters already in trouble. We’d be on the hook too if we were still in.
December 9, 2023
Itâs the UK not France that jacked in the cooperation, no small boats before Brexit. You Brexiters now learning you cant do it on your own?
December 9, 2023
Rubbish. Our idiots just refuse to return France’s illegals to them. Its their problem porous borders from Italy and to us. They need to sort it. Return the same day. Problem solved. They’ll stop coming. Stop housing them or giving them anything. No other Country does or would when they leave their homeless other streets. Madness.
December 9, 2023
Limb: We left the EU 31 Jan 2020. There were small boats prior to that. Whilst in the EU for years the bulk of cross channel ‘illegal’ arrivals was in lorries & other vehicles which continues if you read & listen with an estimate yearly total of around 8000 possibly getting through even now. Consider what impact Covid & lockdowns had with reduced transport movement. Year 2020 over 8000 boat arrivals (and in 2019 over 1800 – far fewer in 2018 ) & they had to be off the streets hence hotels. ( Homeless too were brought in off the streets into hotels certainly in London, many subsequently leaving of their own accord thereafter ) All the while the criminal gangs have fine tuned their ops into well run businesses. Look at the problems the rest of Europe is trying to cope with and the actions being taken. Also If you consider the likes of the Dublin Agreement we left to be the answer to all our woes or what the EU’s latest proposals of quotas & threatened financial ‘punishment’ for non compliance on quotas being the answer then you are misguided. ‘Dublin’ was very ineffective anyway. The EU’s one size fits all still doesn’t work on this and on little else for that matter. Member states are doing what they see fit for their own populations. As I mentioned yesterday, there’s plenty of cooperation albeit imperfect. It’s a global & complex problem & rejoining the EU will be no solution for us if that’s what you hanker after.
December 9, 2023
Because perhaps they travelled between EU Countries under free movement of people or with an EU visa
Perhaps Brexit influenced the invasion of Ukraine or the problems in Gaza ?
Agree our Government is to blame for the legal migration numbers and certainly to blame for weak action on the illegals
December 9, 2023
Now why should leaving, what you Remainers insist on calling a European trade bloc, make any difference whatsoever to cooperation between two sovereign countries. Unless of course it isn’t just a trade bloc and the French don’t play ball out of spite?
December 9, 2023
France has aways been a step ahead, encouraging the immigrants they don’t want to take a voyage to the blanches falaises de Douvres. They even pretend to take measures to stop them while pocketing millions of euros.
December 9, 2023
Only a dope (such as Sunak) would have paid the French in advance of them actually delivering (or without some refunds should they not deliver specific targets). The blame surely lies with the incompetent buyers of their âservicesâ. But what does he care, it is not his cash he is tipping down the drain just yours.
December 9, 2023
Right again Lifelogic. Anyone sensible would have paid France according to results, not in advance and out of control as this backward PM. What a wasteful worthless bozo he is.
December 9, 2023
Just to note that the latest funding to France of almost ÂŁ 500 million over 3 years is also to cover a new detention centre in France which is not expected to be operational in the near future but part of the cooperation deal.
December 9, 2023
giving all those Frenchies work for years?
December 9, 2023
PM Sunak has nailed his fate to the Rwanda mast; his political naivete and commercial inexperience means he will be California house hunting in the new year. I cannot see a statesman in the PCP who could manage the rabble that inhabit that piggery.
December 9, 2023
His bill won’t work. He knows that. It’s can kicking until the election. Return illegals to France rhe same day who allow them to come against existing international law.
December 9, 2023
Sunak has already got his one way tickets to California for when he hands over to Starmer due to his and this not a Conservative Governmentâs incompetence and bungling.
December 9, 2023
Exactly Mark. Not to mention the many more hundreds of millions promised by Sunak to pay for their accommodation for the first five years to keep them in the comfort they have been accustomed to courtesy of the UK taxpayer.
December 9, 2023
For what indeed? But cheaper than test and trace ÂŁ37 billion, the net harm lockdowns, PPE and furlough corruption, net harm vaccines, the pointless gifts to the French to âstopâ the boats, eat out to help out, the COP parties!
Not to mention the many ÂŁ Trillions they plan to waste on the net zero religion.
December 9, 2023
Well said, and you don’t need to go to the extent of setting up camps in remote Scottish islands.
Set up prison camps with very basic amenities for the illegal migrants until either they can be sent back to where they came from, or they decide to go themselves. Make it clear there is absolutely no prospect of staying in this country to build a life here if they made it to the UK illegally.
Germany and Italy entertained 170,000 British POWs in the WW2, so it doesn’t need a massive logistic exercise to put it in place.
No need for this fancy Rwanda scheme or expensive hotel accommodation.
December 9, 2023
It is a scam. A sop to placate what the Tories imagine is their typical voter.
The voter has had it with LEGAL immigration. Rwanda is an insulting gimmick.
December 9, 2023
The UK entered into treaties that were written 70 years ago that assumed mass migration would only be caused by wars.
In sheer hubris lawyers created corridors that assumed migrants were victims unless proven otherwise.
The result is the mass migration of people who want to destroy the nation that was set up after WW2 to protect the most persecuted group. These beliefs have now penetrated to the heart of the top educational and political organisations. Children are being educated to destroy for virtuous reasons just like in WW2. Instead of summer camps itâs universities. Instead of radio propaganda itâs corporate media propaganda.
We have entered extremely dangerous waters. Politicians are just too foolish to see where this is heading.
There is a theory in psychotherapy called âthe paradoxical theory of changeâ. It basically says if you try to suppress a bad behaviour you eventually end up with a similar bad behaviour. Positive change only comes from fixing a problem at the root from the start. This has not happened with mass migration and the bad behaviour is now inevitable.
December 9, 2023
I see it like this. International treaties are forged by existential situations. Until were are in an existential situation again the destructive treaties created after WW2 will not be changed.
December 9, 2023
I agree but I fear the existential situation will be set up by the globalists so they can impose totalitarianism on us.
December 9, 2023
Hi John I believe the public have a right to know who the members of the One Nation Group are. Can you publish the list please.
Reply They do not publish a list and I do not attend that group.
December 9, 2023
The so called one nation group are the die hard remainers. They don’t represent the country or their constituents .
They love open borders and hate Britain. Reform us our only salvation.
December 9, 2023
I don’t think Reform will be our salvation but when we kick all Tories out we can signal that it wasn’t because they weren’t left wing enough.
Even 70 seats is an overestimation from the conversations I’m hearing. I’m pretty sure that the Conservative party doesn’t have long left. It will be a fringe party forevermore.
December 9, 2023
reply to reply – do they communicate by Whatsapp?
December 9, 2023
LMcC :
A good start to identifying the âOne Nation Groupâ would be to look at the 219 Conservative MPs who voted with 141 Labour, 4 Independent and 1 Green Party MP for the Draft Vehicle Emissions Trading Schemes Order 2023 which will begin to fine from next year motor manufacturers ÂŁ15,000 per ice vehicle they sell beyond a quota which decreases each year :
https://votes.parliament.uk/votes/commons/division/1689#ayes
[Interestingly I notice that Sir William Cash, MP is listed in both the âAyesâ and âNoesâ lists!
Quantum mechanics on the human scale!
https://votes.parliament.uk/votes/commons/division/1689#noes%5D
December 9, 2023
Communism. Certainly not free trade. This authoritarian Government on their climate change religion must go.
December 9, 2023
Typical of Sunaks sleight of hand and dishonest promises.
Always read the small print
I wonder what industry will be next, a penalty/Tax on selling gas boilers or/and a higher tax on petrol and diesel fuels.
December 9, 2023
There is a wiki list:-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Nation_Conservatives_(caucus)
Many are no longer MPs though
Founded by David grubby Green. Matt Hancock, Tobias and David Gauke feature.
December 9, 2023
Robert Jenrick has pointed out that the Bill is flawed and will not “end the âmerry-go-round of legal challenges that prevent small boat arrivals being swiftly removed in sufficient numbers to create a meaningful deterrentâ
We should be able to close loopholes such as universities marketing low grade, 6 month short courses as a back door to a life in the UK. There is now a huge industry where highly experienced immigration lawyers acting for migrants claim legal aid to delay and appeal decisions. The criminal element then provides the documents that they need and next, they abscond and disappear into jobs in the black economy while they wait for their new kidney on the NHS
We had better sort this issue out now – because as the world heats up and vast equatorial areas become uninhabitable, the numbers of migrants wanting to get in to our nice temperate country will be in the millions, not the thousands currently
December 9, 2023
Subsaharan Africa seems able to support a hugely increased population compared with say 1950. Global warming is obviously not making the region uninhabitable. All you have to go on, SG, are therefore predictions based on modelling, and we know how inaccurate climate forecasts by the UN and its paid propagandists have been. Surely the greatest numbers of migrants fleeing Africa have come from countries racked by war, such as Sudan, the Congo and Nigeria. These have the greatest numbers of displaced people according to the Africa Centre for Countries in Conflict.
December 9, 2023
There are some positive signs – in the Sahel.I read last week(and it’s something I have been expecting) that Mali,Burkina Faso and Niger are discussing federating under Russian tutelage-their borders are wholly artificial,the product of French colonial administration.Having kicked out the corrupt Franco-American puppet governments who ran them as post-colonial resource colonies,they can perhaps begin to return to the trade systems that pertained prior to European colonisation when Mali was by far the largest and wealthiest empire in Africa,extending from Guinea to Sudan (and if i remember correctly supplying Europe with much of it’s gold in Tudor times).
I’ve just finished reading Paul Strathern’s 2007 book “Napoleon in Egypt” which ,in addition to the military campaigns,covers the geopolitical arrangements of the time in the Orient(Napoleon thought Europe a “molehill” compared to the potential of the East) and how the historic trade routes linked West Africa to Egypt,Arabia,Persia and India and,in Africa,the link between Timbuktu(Mali),Darfur(South Sudan) and Cairo.I note that the Presidents of Mali and South Sudan have been in Moscow in the last few weeks signing development deals with Mr Putin and that Egypt and Ethiopia(whose prospects will be transformed by the New Renaissance dam/hydroelectric project)are joining BRICS+ next month.
The new world order continues to take shape-to the exclusion of western Europe.
December 9, 2023
Sahara, theyâre already coming here in the millions. 1.2 million last year given the right to come and live here and 1.1 the year before. All rubber stamped by this not a Conservative Government. And justâs just the so called legal route.
December 9, 2023
Sorry Sakara. Predictive script.
December 9, 2023
Indeed and these people are not like snails who bring their houses on their backs with them! A typical house costs costs about 15 years of typical take home pay. Then they need roads, police, hospitals, dentists, doctors, universities, social services, refuse collections, defence, airports, trains, busesâŠ
December 9, 2023
Areas of Africa becoming uninhabitable has nothing much to do with climate change, but a lot to do with exponential population growth they have seen, and the degradation of the local environment that has resulted from it.
December 9, 2023
This Tory Government encourages ALL immigration. Deports no one and passes laws to stop us complaining about their actions. We need REFORM.
December 9, 2023
Were it any other organisation , military, a football team or boy scout group you would describe it as chaotic and unmanagable. As Parliament goes these days it is the norm, for sure it is incapable of fulfilling the wishes of the people. An election with the same cast of players will not resolve matterrs, broad churches are an illusion of power. You cannot herd cats. I hope reform are well prepared for the starting gun.
December 9, 2023
Unfortunately, it often feels like the Lib Dems have infiltrated the Conservative Party. This makes sense, in that an aspiring young ‘liberal-minded’ politician (i.e. straight out of Uni) might look at the Lib Dems and conclude that they would be unlikely to win a seat under the LD banner. Join the Conservative Party though (become a SPAD?) and get short listed for a seat – never mind if the local CP membership want you – and there you go.
‘One Nation’ Conservative. What does that actually mean?
December 9, 2023
The Lib Dems even tried it in Wokingham, and are having another go.
December 10, 2023
The Lib Dems control the Council now MT and they also control the messaging it pushes out – which is often about how Central Government is denying them vital funds.
Of course they also like to publicise their “Climate Emergency” efforts – like the Wokingham to Winnesh Cycleway ‘planning’ exercise, although nothing has actually been built yet.
Strangely, this plan was funded by a ÂŁ606,000 Government Grant. How many pot holes would that have repaired? Perhaps this ‘Conservative’ government could also have found a better way to spend the tax payers money too?
December 9, 2023
Sir John says “The Lords has its majority of peers who always want to do down the UK and who support every international criticism and attack on us.”
Most of them were placed there by Blair, Brown, Cameron, Clegg, May and Johnson. So if what Sir John says is true, then they have been appointing people who are basically traitors. It reminds me of this quote by Taylor Caldwell, an author who wrote many books alluding to political corruption and the global power behind “the thrones.”
âA nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to fear.â
â Taylor Caldwell, A Pillar of Iron
December 9, 2023
Apt quote, Donna. Thank you.
December 11, 2023
That is actually Taylor Caldwell quoting Cicero.
December 9, 2023
The Lords has its majority of peers who always want to do down the UK and who support every international criticism and attack on us. There are plenty of peers who put the wishes of lawyers acting for illegal migrants above the wishes and needs of legally settled UK workers and taxpayers.
All lead by the Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby who probably thinks that all these illegals and legal immigrants might boost the churchâs dringling congregation up a few thousand, itâs about time the house of unelected lords was brought into the 21st century and scrapped , we have a elected parliament who we can get rid of if we donât like the way they are running our country
December 9, 2023
For one legal immigration needs proper action. Stop printing work visas for the Indian outsourcers. Stop giving indefinite leave to remain just for working here a few years. Clamp down on places like Bradford using marriage visas systematically to move large populations here from their ancestral home land. Random people meeting, falling in love, getting married, is fine, whole communities using marriage as a way of moving populations here is not.
As for the boats, get the marines and navy taking active physical action to repel them. Invoke our right of self defence. Use tough love. Those already here to get worse care than the British homeless, not better.
As for parliament, need a new reform, sdp, UKIP style party, and a mass exodus of decent conservative MP’s to it. Then force an election.
Rishi to be treated like the previous speaker and denied any honours.
December 9, 2023
Checking the Bill:
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbill/58-04/0038/230038.pdf
I see in Clause 8 that it extends to Northern Ireland, but it is suggested here:
https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/opinion/letters/letter-northern-ireland-risks-becoming-an-immigration-hub-due-to-effects-of-the-protocol-4438175
“Letter: Northern Ireland ârisks becoming an immigration hub due to effects of the protocol”
“The Charter of Fundamental Rights (which is different and more extensive than the ECHR) and a number of EU directives relevant in the field of immigration continue with unabated force in Northern Ireland due to the provisions of Article 2 (1) of the protocol which, due to the effect of section 7A of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018, has complete supremacy over every other domestic law – including the Rwanda Bill.”
“The Rwanda Bill, with which I agree in terms of intent (but maintain it doesnât go far enough), is nevertheless fatally defective because it fails to take the necessary steps to sweep away the protocol – via a notwithstanding section 7A clause – and thus ensure the entire United Kingdom is on the same footing.”
Is this true? I do not see a “section 7A” in that Act.
December 9, 2023
Thanks for this article but with due respect it’s utterly without consequence which is a tragedy in itself as it reveals the progressive cancer at the heart of the treacherous Tories who since 1990 have put self and party (to appease the Left and Labour) before nation, people, culture and freedom of the person.
Last night Nadin Dorries confirmed that Sunak as Chancellor had opposed the entire Rwanda policy. Now he backs it as an act of political expediency. He’s a pure bred liar. Like Blair and Cameron, utterly repugnant, history will condemn them
Labour’s mass immigration strategy since 1997 has broken the back of those who oppose the international Left’s demographic realignment of which racist Labour is a thinly veiled member. Play the race card, play the far-right card and bingo the Tories fall into line.
Reform are predicted to claim 35 seats at the next GE. The Tories need replacing, fast
Blair, Brown and Jon Powell had one agenda in 1997, to destroy our nation. They’ve succeeded
Reply I think the prediction from the polls you are citing is Reform could lose Conservatives 35 seats but they will not win them. They go to Labour on these polls.
December 9, 2023
Yes, Reform might have the casting vote in the next election without winning any seats.
December 9, 2023
When Nigel gets out of the jungle and asks people to vote in a certain way, when Dom Cummings runs a sophisticated campaign, etc all bets are off. A decent party genuinely going to get immigration under control will win seats like Sunderland, not just conservative seats.
December 9, 2023
That’s a distincty possibility. Farage’s return could swing things strongly towards Reform, especially since he may have gained popularity by doing the TV show.
However the pre-TV show calculus was that it would take two parliaments. First the Tories would be wiped out in the upcoming GE before the electorate are prepared to coalesce fully around a new party of the right. The next election after 2024 would then be the telling one.
Farage is quite shrewd though, he realised that to reach people who only know him by reputation, people who only consume social media and “trash TV”, he needs to go where they are. And make them see that he’s just a normal bloke with ordinary people’s best interests at heart.
If that works, the results could be spectacular.
N.B. He will also come out of the TV show with some serious campaigning funds, if he chooses to use them for that purpose. And with a TV show of his own and Tice doing the same… watch this space, as they say. Nothing is decided yet.
December 9, 2023
I see the next election as the one the destroys the Conservative party, but does not give a significant number of seats to Reform. The election after that will destroy Labour. If elections are still allowed!
December 9, 2023
yes that’s a high chance. I would rather we do all we can to get a decent government after the next election though, a repeat of the political class leading the current main parties doesn’t bear thinking about.
December 9, 2023
Reply to reply. A lifelong Tory voter, I will be voting Reform because there is no Tory party to vote for and if that lets Labour in, so be it. Not a lot of difference between them anyway.
December 9, 2023
That’s the way I’m thinking too ‘Jools’
December 9, 2023
Same here.
December 9, 2023
correct
December 9, 2023
Agreed. The uniparty has to go.
December 9, 2023
Agree with every word Dom
December 9, 2023
Reply to reply
What if the tories returned the 2019 favour and âstood downâ?
Leader of Reformâs suggestion on video.
Not my ideaâŠIâd sooner have a real Conservative Party but if we did we would not be in this mess.
But I REALLY do not want Labour and the tories REFUSE to save themselves.
December 9, 2023
Good idea, too many rich sponsors would refuse to let it happen though.
December 9, 2023
Mr Sunak has already admitted that his Bill is the strongest possible given the Rwandan governmentâs requirements. In other words, it is highly likely if not certain, to fail to stop the boats. So we all have to get used to the fact that we will no longer be safe in our home country. Crimes by channel migrants continue to be under reported and are only going to get worse, numerically and in terms of scale, given many will have terrorist intentions. Ironically, Labourâs âpolicyâ of talking to the French/EU would work but in one set of highly unlikely circumstances: Rwanda fails, government tries using UK controlled territory for processing claims by asylum seekers immediately they arrive, but the boats continue to come, so the navy is instructed to treat the Channel as a land border and physically prevents incursion across it. Then the French would enter into meaningful talks which could result in sensible joint measures, even involving the EU being persuaded to suspend Schengen and physically prevent crossings via the Mediterranean. This wonât happen of course, and itâs very difficult not to see the continuation of this threat as the most overt aspect of the destruction of our English way of life by way of the elective dictatorship we live under.
December 9, 2023
You can argue these numbers one way or another, but the key fact, in common with Brexit and net zero, is that a supposedly representative democracy is failing to represent the beliefs of the majority.
December 9, 2023
@Sir Joe Soap +1 Too many in Parliament would sooner fight democracy rather than defend it.
December 9, 2023
Agree – Democracy is in mortal danger
December 9, 2023
Anyone who hasnât seen it already should see GB Newsâ excellent filming this week of the thousands of young men being filmed stowing away on the back of lorries coming to England. The boats is just the tip of the iceberg and a diversion by this useless Government. They are all laughing at the Rwanda scheme and not a bit deterred as even they donât believe it will happen. Sunak and co and Macron are making a laughing stock of us all.
December 9, 2023
I am staggered to read that ‘there are 98 Commons Ministers who have to vote the government line. The last list of Parliamentary Private Secretaries to Ministers showed 41 in post. We are awaiting an updated list which may be longer. They too have to vote with the government. ‘
‘The Lords has its majority of peers who always want to do down the UK and who support every international criticism and attack on us. There are plenty of peers who put the wishes of lawyers acting for illegal migrants above the wishes and needs of legally settled UK workers and taxpayers.’
No wonder there are so many groups of agitators against the present structure of Government and those who seek to terminate the Lords. So much for the will of the people.
December 9, 2023
Time we considered a revolution?
December 9, 2023
So many on the government payroll in the commons, but none apparently good enough to be foreign secretary.
December 9, 2023
As usual we have politicians trying to solve a problem in the most expensive, time consuming, and complicated manner.
No wonder they always need high taxation income.
December 9, 2023
“regain control of our borders” Rings hollow now doesn’t it.
This whole Rwanda palaver has gone on for many months (in fact years) It’s become an unfunny comedy, costing the taxpayer, as usual.
A real Government would detain all illegals in immigration camps with just basic amenities. Then send them back to their country of origin. Those refusing to admit their nationality should be imprisoned until they do. It’s called deterrence. But of course we no longer have a real Government. Just a mob of wishy-washy do- gooders who constantly dump on the indigenous population.
December 9, 2023
Very much so. The Telegraph reported a few weeks ago that the “hotels and benefits” package was founded in legislation meant as an emergency contingency plan in the event that the Manston processing centre was temporarily full, making it clear that a short term “Manston equivalent” had to be provided in those exceptional circumstances. It was never anticipated that it would be a long term magnet for thousands of able bodied men of fighting age from alien cultures and backgrounds arriving with triumphant expressions and not a hint of gratitude or desire to integrate. Why no one thought to revisit this legislation and remove the magnet is a mystery.
December 9, 2023
It is beyond belief they don’t detain those who cannot prove who they are , and instead wave them in .
December 9, 2023
These One Nation Tories are really No Nation Tories, for they don’t want borders, and without borders you don’t have a nation.
December 9, 2023
@Iain Moore They are the liberal left, placed to the extreme of left Labour, that if the Conservative Party was properly constituted and would never have got selected. The sooner they are booted out the better for the Country.
December 9, 2023
To genuinely stop the boats they should be towed back close to the French coast. Just leave them there, so they can power themselves back to the shore there. We just keep our boats on the dividing line, and if they come back we just return them. RNLI must be ordered to comply with this as they clearly want as many illegals here as they can get the way they behave. Film them so the overboard jumpers can be seen doing it. throw them some big rings and tell them they will be collected later. Stupid this will be called of course. Maybe of course they are under the PMs orders to bring them all here.
Will it be done? Of course not, we are led by cowards, who are afraid of doing anything they may be criticised for by those who are our internal and external enemies, as well of course of those who want the illegals here without limits. There are many too who hide behind the ‘it won’t work’ argument. So who suffers? We do, ordinary people, not the elites and well off who are comfortable and not adversely affected at all, and the endless ministers – at least one had some decency. The rest just want the money and the status no matter what the party and government does, no matter how are country is led and not prevented from ruin.
December 9, 2023
If we had a land border our government would not have a fence. Illegals would just be allowed over and indeed be welcomed – after all those in boats are at present, and never sent back. It would not dare send any back as it dare not send any now.
Would there be a fence? If there would be why is there no defence of our nation at sea? Why don’t you ask your deceitful and cowardly PM.
No such government should be allowed to defile us which is what yours is doing and is not being stopped by any of you. Debating is not the answer, and debating is not action.
December 9, 2023
This plan was flawed from the beginning. It is claimed that the intention is to act as a deterrent to those coming across the channel illegally. However, if as reported Rwanda has only capacity to accept 100-200 migrants and the numbers crossing the channel are currently around 30,000 that hardly seems like an effective deterrent. It has to be questioned if the government and MPs actually do want to end this but knowing it is unpopular with voters wish to create the illusion that they are trying to deal with it. Taxpayers’ money is given in largesse to France and Rwanda whilst our own Border Force and RNLI act as a ferry service to bring these migrants ashore each day. We often hear that people smuggling gangs are enriching themselves by this trade. Why hasn’t action been taken to identify and eliminate these gangs? I’m afraid, as with so many issues, Westminster is taking the people for fools.
December 9, 2023
“It has to be questioned if the government and MPs actually do want to end this but knowing it is unpopular with voters wish to create the illusion that they are trying to deal with it”
Are you only now questioning it ? I would have thought the penny would have dropped long ago. The government and MPs do NOT want tp stop immigration. THEY WANT MORE IMMIGRATION.
“Westminster is taking the people for fools”
Well yes. That’s because the majority of people are fools, for voting LIB/LAB/Con all the time.
December 9, 2023
Well said
We should be dealing with the root problem
People smugglers
December 9, 2023
These dreadful men in suits who think they understand the roots of our distress.
Natural law has been defiled, our basic human rights reviled by those who just could not care less.
Dunkirk, our pride in war, reversed with not a backward glance
Allowed to guard our borders?..Not a chance!
Swallow the rot, believe the hype,lay down your arms and die.
Stiff upper lip. This is nothing new. It is all the same âOld lieâ
it is sweet and proper to die for one’s country.
However it is achieved!
December 9, 2023
âIf you could hear, at every jolt, the blood
Come gargling from the froth-corrupted lungs,
Obscene as cancer, bitter as the cud
Of vile, incurable sores on innocent tongues, _
My friend, you would not tell with such high zest
To children ardent for some desperate glory,
The Old Lie: Dulce et decorum est
Pro patria mori.â
Wilfred Owen, died 4/11/1918, published posthumously 1920.
December 9, 2023
Yes, indeed. ( I had hoped to sound a little Owenesque)
My point being.
It has never changed.
Two World WarsâŠand now they have taken everything.
Or rather they are playing in the world casino with OUR chips.
December 9, 2023
Gosh how clever you are hefner
December 9, 2023
Dump the current PM.
Minus one is a simpler solution to the arithmetical problem.
December 9, 2023
Sunak has briefed the newspapers that Rwanda have said if UK leaves ECHR then they will not accept any migrants. Iâm not sure how much extra they were paid to say that. But it just shows how politically inept Sunak is – not only can he not propose any âstrongerâ legislation now but he also canât fight the next election on leaving ECHR to make the Rwanda plan work. Only putting leaving ECHR in a manifesto will overcome Lordsâ opposition so we should vote Reform – it will take a couple of general elections to work, either by electing Reform or more likely (like Brexit) by shifting the Conservative party in that direction.
December 9, 2023
Its a bad law ….and you shouldn’t vote for another bad law (just look at NI, Net-Zero, Fisheries, Online, AI etc etc)
December 9, 2023
Those who suggest voting for reform candidates will just help Starmer increase the number of seats will Labour win. Under FPTP, Reform will win no seats, as the Brexit party demonstrated. Instead, they will lose the Conservatives an estimated 35 seats they ewould otherwise retain.
The only way forward under the current electoral system is for many people to join the Conservatives and de-select those on the wet side of the party, and replace them with right-of-centre candidates. It could take a decade to achieve a right-of-centre Conservative party, but by then where will the electorate be ?
December 9, 2023
The reason there are so many Conservative MPs who are actually Libdems is due to candidate selection being controlled centrally – when David Cameron was leader he made sure lots of Libdem candidates were approved. So joining the Conservatives as a mere member will make little difference. Best vote Reform, let the current Conservative Party be destroyed, and target the next election after Labour have lost popularity. It is no real risk as Labour are literally no different to the current government except they may have slightly better policies on the NHS and the economy.
December 9, 2023
But that demonstrates the people are prepared to turn off the life sustaining plug in the wall.
The were-once-Tories need wiping out.
December 9, 2023
‘The One Nation Group that wants a weaker Bill puts out it has 103 supporters.’
Presumably there isn’t a list of One Nation Group members as I haven’t seen it.âIs this deliberate so their constituents are none the wiser and may still cast their vote for them?âI could see a General Election where how well an incumbent Conservative MP fares is down to his stance on immigration.âThe box for Tice’s Reform Party will be just a few inches away.âOr Farage’s party by then?
December 9, 2023
Too much panicking from a weak Conservative Government with an ultra-weak leadership. This is coupled with a Parliament as a whole that refuses to act on behalf of the electorate that empowers and pays them as such refuse to become what was asked of them when they were elected â the UKâs Legislators.
To many are on bended knee to the unaccountable, unelected Overlords in foreign lands that they themselves as the self-appointed believe that their personal desire of the World is beyond challenge in all circumstances.
Or in other words we have a Conservative Government and a Parliament that refuses Democracy.
December 9, 2023
Ideas
An uninhabited Scottish island. Fining France and the EU for everyone who lands. Confining every illegal migrant. Stopping giving them legal aid. Declare a moratorium on asylum for 30 years. Thats the pull.
No student should ever bring in family. Most courses anyway could be taken online quite reputably.
Actually chucking out anyone who has destroyed documents. If they arrived by plane they would just be turned around. So fly to France and unload. The whole thing is because of the EUs FOM.
December 9, 2023
I don’t see how the Rwanda Bill can succeed – there are too many ” ifs and buts ” about it . Clarity is the main issue and , as far as I can judge , there is little in it . So far the objections have been relatively subdued but come next week when the leadership issue is also focused , bolder statements will emerge and Sunak will have to surrender . The question then is does it lead quickly to an election , or , will it bring about a deal with ” Reform ” ?.
I have never known such confusion in how this country is run in my long life ; what I do wish for is a sensible resolve and the elimination of the Lords .
December 9, 2023
…and the Supreme Court, OBR, ECHR, membership of UN.
December 9, 2023
you don’t agree?
December 9, 2023
Deck chairs… Titanic…
December 9, 2023
Just stop all this nonsense of kicking the can down the road until Labour gets elected and opens the floodgates. The takeover of our country has been planned for a long time to destroy our sovereignty and cohesion. I donât believe this Government has any intention of reducing immigration and I wonât spend any time championing this flawed bill. Why voters think Labour is the answer to our problems is beyond me but the Conservatives have committed political suicide over the last decade so deserve to be annihilated.
December 9, 2023
Christine – You are obviously awake. Voting for any party is a total waste as the Globalist UK WEF Establishment control the Agenda. Nothing will change until our whole system of government is changed. Beware the Trojan Horse infiltration from within.
December 9, 2023
A succinct, cogent account adminst so much waffle from others on this matter of voting prospects. Thank you.
December 9, 2023
and do all these Ministers and Private Secretaries have their own Advisors or SPADS quite apart from the Civil Servants?
December 9, 2023
Remove all SPADS
December 9, 2023
can’t our MPs think for themselves, don’t them have any of their own policies ….
December 9, 2023
a promotion from the benches is enough of a carrot to blindly follow.
December 9, 2023
Germany has reduced migrant numbers in a month from 18k to 11k simply by tightening border controls.
Part of the problem we have is the wolkery of the so-called Border Force. They are more of an escort service than a police force.
We are surrounded by people who have been brainwashed into believing utter hogwash that undermines our national identity and pride in our heritage.
I used to laugh when people said there were russian trolls on internet forums. Now they are so numerous that I had to realise that it’s true. And they are now ably assisted by a growing army of Lenin’s “useful idiots” (or useful burgeois idiots” as he actually said) who are wilfully undermining their own society and interests.
Private Fraser was right. We’re doomed. No way back from here. Buy a house in the Outer Hebrides and you just might to get to live out your life in peace – before the boats start bringing new cultures from the mainland.
December 9, 2023
Hi sir John
Nevermind the money spent on Rwanda what’s happened to the 400 million pounds we have given to France to stop the boats
Let’s stop the taxi service by the border force, And the RNLI,
as they enter British water This is encouraging the boats because they only have to travel a few miles before they get picked up it must be easy to catch the people smugglers it only needs the police to pose as a migrant and then arrest them
Thanks
December 9, 2023
GS – The money has gone to the same destination that the billions went forthe Paris Climate Accord, Ukraine etc etc.
December 9, 2023
[Tory ‘One-Nation’ MPs] “have a strong position within the government and seem to like being Ministers .”
They do indeed. Ministerial rule is is the quintessence of their mission: to enforce socially liberal, CBI-compliant, pro-immigration, UN-friendly and Net Zero policies that have no majority among Conservative voters, and in most cases no majority among their own constituents. And to burnish their cvs for their future positions outside parliament.
December 9, 2023
Don’t think any Con/Lab high ups are truly evil.
They aren’t clever enough.
They just don’t have time to think.
MPs, Ministers etc are kept so busy they have no time to examine propaganda, alternative theories.
Also they don’t seem to be able to act/think outside a Group. Safety in numbers.
December 9, 2023
just a herd of sheep, the alpha one leads and the brainless follow.
December 9, 2023
No idea about the likelihood/practicality of this but seems interesting.
Tice said on video how about if ( the shot through) Tory party were to âstand downâat the next election just as the Brexit party did for them at the last.
Might save some blushesâŠour âŠumâŠ.MP has already stood down.
Tice could then go head to head with Starmer!
December 9, 2023
COLD OUTSIDE – Are you kidding?? Turn off or better still throw away your TV and do some research.
December 9, 2023
Conservative MPs wanting to toughen up the Bill should table a series of reasoned amendments but not actually vote against the Government. If the resultant Act fails to be effective, then the “rebels” will be in a strong position to demand leaving the jurisdiction of the ECHR.
December 9, 2023
Dear Sir John,
The scenarios you suggest are depressingly reminiscent of what went on in the Parliaments between the Referendum and the 2019 election. MPs’ actions then are to blame for most of the damaging deficiencies of the Brexit settlement, helped by the Speaker at that time.
Why then do ministers insist on legislation as though passing Acts solved the problem when administrative actions that are within its own power are likely to be faster and more effective. Is it a matter of will or just losing control of the forces of government?
As others have suggested, genuine asylum seekers will have gone to great lengths to retain checkable evidence of their identity and should be treated sympathetically. Others are and should be treated as criminals. That does not mean that economic migrants are bad people any more than true refugees are good. It is a proper distinction of principle.
For that to happen, we should as an emergency create “Nightingale ” detention centres, as Mrs Braverman proposed. Failing that, it is possible, without being inhumane, to frustrate landings rather aiding them. On legal migration, as both you and the Labour Party have suggested, delaying changes in the rules by even 100 days creates perverse incentives to beat the deadline.
The point goes far beyond migration issues. Far greater administrative action can be taken within existing statute and common law to frustrate campaigns of disruption and vandalism, to end expressions of race hate and incitement of violence on marches and to persuade our friends in the RoI government to back alternative approaches to NI border issues.
December 9, 2023
My theory which I’ve heard nowhere else is…
Someone with brains said give them their head
and they will reveal their true nature
December 9, 2023
Really a lot of people marching, ganging up on the majority, and showing open hatred for British values could and should be locked up for treason, or a lightweight version of a similar law.
If they hate the UK so much let them leave the country.
And I include a few MP’s in this.
December 9, 2023
what? only a few?
December 9, 2023
âMPs must back Sunakâs deportation plan because it is the only game in townâ says Dominic (Iâm looking for a way back) Raab in todays Media
It reminds me of, MPâs must back the corrupt brino Withdrawal Agreement or else!
How about lets do what is right for the human rights of the UK electorate, lets us as MPs start acting as though we were democratically elected to serve our constituents, instead of this diatribe of supporting unelectable unaccountable faceless âLords and Mastersâ in Foreign Lands!
Democracy down the pan, by desire by those elected to defend it.
December 9, 2023
Tidying my files, a letter sent to the Daily Telegraph on May 26 2002:
“Why all this fuss about a mere 1300 migrants at Sangatte?
According to the Centre for Policy Studies, net immigration into the UK is now running at more than 400,000 persons per year. That is, about 1100 per day.
We might as well take these few extra, and have done with it.”
Nothing changes, except to get worse.
December 9, 2023
Gimmicky, window dressing and spin – Sunak’s track record of incompetence and his hidden puppet masters continue headstrong repeating mistakes while we are reluctant passengers witnessing a slow motion train crash.
Groupthink on steroids, devoid of basic reason and rational thought.
December 10, 2023
It is one thing for the Prime Minister to want to stop the small boats. Who sensibly disagrees?
So who then is and has been thwarting the direct will of the people to regain control our laws and borders?
We have no meaningful democracy today, just economic & legal control systems of lawfare. Smear propaganda, and even worse use of direct millitary intelligence against dissent, populists & actual real journalists.
The future is Reform with Labour holding the balance of power, perhaps even a coalition.
I can see only one strategy for the conservatives to survive OR at least one that will destroy liblabcons. That would be exiting the ECHR before the election and restore supremacy to parliament. Brexit can then properly start to happen.
Ensure the ECHR rulings are considered informative but not binding.
December 10, 2023
I don’t know why it has taken me so long, but apart from discussions on whether Rwanda is “safe”, there is a fundamental hypocrisy at the heart of the Rwanda bill. Let’s assume that the purpose of the Rwanda bill is to deter people from crossing the Channel in small boats. Let’s further assume that Rwanda IS a safe country for refugees. If that is the case, sending someone there is no deterrent. If it isn’t safe we shouldn’t be sending people there.