I find it strange that for weeks we can all  read in the papers of a struggle between the Chancellor who wants to offer tax cuts, and the officials of the OBR and Treasury who do not want him to do that.
These arguments should take place in confidence. The Chancellor should make the judgement having heard all the arguments. Officials should co operate with the decisions made.
This better way of working has been  disrupted by creating a so called independent OBR and then doubling up by adopting a ludicrous control for policy based on their forecast of the debt and deficit in five years time. They themselves would agree that the only thing we can be sure about is their 5 year out forecast will be wrong. No one can give an accurate spot forecast for public borrowing that far distant. Their forecasts for the immediate year which could be more accurate have badly overstated borrowings in recent years.,
OBR forecasts are said to be independent but are formed in an iterative process with Treasury officials guiding them on government policy. If the forecast was genuinely independent there would be no need for the Chancellor to accept it or defend it. He might choose a different independent forecast from a reputable forecaster with a better track record. The insider’s forecast lures the Chancellor into acceptance or submission, however bad it might be.
This budget would be best based around how much government plans to spend next year and how much it might have to borrow in that year. That after all is meant to be the idea of an annual budget. Debt interest will tumble with lower inflation taking maybe £30 bn off peak levels of inflation linked cost. Public sector productivity should be prodded to remove some of the  £30 bn loss since 2019. Credit should be given for the planned cut of 300,000 in legal migration greatly reducing pressures on social housing and public service.
If the OBR insist on highlighting the 5 year debt figure then the Chancellor should cut back some of the unfunded spending increases pencilled in for that year.
March 4, 2024
Good morning.
As we here all know, the OBR was a Gideon Osborne creation probably designed to give some of his mates a nice job and pension. Now it is little more than another festering Public Sector sore and bleed on our nations resources.
Actually no ! The only ‘credit’ I will give anyone in government on that issue is when they tell ALL migrants to fund their own ‘services’ thereby making them a zero cost to the taxpayer and when we freeze ALL legal immigration to this country.
Empty gestures will no longer work. And neither will bribing us with our own money ! We’re done with you.
March 4, 2024
The OBR is made up mainly of left wing academics who when Liebour get into power will be more sympathetic.
As with all the QUANGOS and institutions they are run by Blairite leftards and in 15 years you’ve done nothing about it. The BBC being the prime example.
Rejoining the EU is the main aim of the Treasury and the OBR is there to assist them.
Who’s incharge of the country because the government certainly isn’t.
March 4, 2024
Paul Scully Tory MP announces his departure as party hast lost its way! Scully thinks party needs to address voters/supporters concerns! He gives passing mention of budget as if there is no hope of change. That makes 62!
Hunt still on the path to UK economic destruction! Why oh why has the party not got rid of Sunak and Hunt? Best the few conservative MPs move to Reform Party because Tory party on the road to extinction. The socialist pro EU Tory party no longer represents it supporters, this is now clear to the majority of the population.
March 4, 2024
1.395 million deliberately imported last year minus 300,000 still equates to over a million a year!! Govt. Does not know or control who leaves! It was promised to be reduced under 219,000 before that tens of thousands. Lies lies lies. Just get out.
March 4, 2024
Over 650 criminals collected from France to come here in last two days! Hands up who believes Sunak?
Sunak says hate preachers will be banned from here. Would that be the same as Treacherous May promised when HS and could not deport hate preachers like Abu Qatada because of ECHR and he left on his own accord! Last week Sunak could not define what an extremist was and had to lump in a far right term for balance when both were not of an equal standing. Labour says Tory party are extremists!
March 4, 2024
Former Tory ministers called the last few budgets good socialist budgets! They are right. All aboard Captain Sunakâs Titanic.
March 4, 2024
Hope,
Four in a row. Are you in a competition with Lifelogic?
March 4, 2024
OBR better known as Office for Budget Ridicule.
March 4, 2024
Much truth in this Mark B.
JR says âPublic sector productivity should be prodded to remove some of the ÂŁ30 bn loss since 2019.â
Much of the public sector produces things of little or no value scrap these and fire them please. HS2, net zero, burning wood (young coal) at Drax, insisting on MOTs too frequently, about 75% of the pointless degrees they issue, the deliberate road blocking agenda with bus, bike, anti-car traffic lights, low traffic areasâŚ
âA lot rests on the budgetâ not really JR investors and businesses are assuming a Labour victory and this budget to be changed only weeks after it takes effect so largely irrelevant in practice. Hunt (Charterhouse PPE Oxon) was a disaster as Health Secretary for circa 5 years the NHS is still an appallingly inefficient disaster now and still getting worse now. The man is another deluded, tax to death socialist, just like Sunak, May, CameronâŚ
March 4, 2024
In the Telegraph:- [A cross-party group has written to Victoria Atkins to sound alarm about the âgrowing public and professional concernsâ at the UKâs rates of excess deaths since 2020.
Ministers have blamed the rise in excess deaths on record NHS waiting lists and the pandemic backlog.
But the parliamentarians are demanding to be shown the underlying data to support the Governmentâs assertion that there is âno evidenceâ linking excess deaths to the vaccines for Covid-19.
âIf those data do indeed exist, please share them; if thorough investigations have already ruled out such a link, please share the relevant reports,â their letter says. âThere is no place here for blind faith.â]
If the evidence supports Sunakâs assurance that the vaccines are incontrovertibly safe why not release the raw but anonymised data? There is surely only one reason not to do this – the data will show that the vaccines caused far more harm than good as is suggested by the evidence we already have world wide. Worse still for younger people and people who had already had covid there was never any need for them to take the vaccine even had they been safe and effective. A good video by Dr John Campbell on this.
Good podcast with Lord Sumption on Unherd ref. Shamima Bagum and Speaker Hoyle. âA wiser Home Sec. than Javid might have made a different judgementâ as might a wiser Speaker – Indeed.
March 4, 2024
I see the failing EV car industry want VAT to be taken off non home chargers to make them similar to at home ones. No far better to tax the electricity the same ways as petrol at say 120% to have fair competition between EVs and ICU cars. Some alternative tax is needed for home chargers. Fair & unrigged competition please.
March 4, 2024
LL, you are quite correct, but like JR you are in a fools belief JRs party is conservative. That boat sailed when Major shifted the party and Cameron shifted the party further over to New Labour ground labelling conservatives Turnip Taliban!
March 4, 2024
After all EV are worse environmentally, impractical for most people, depreciate more rapidly, cost far more and wear out tyres and roads more quickly too. They even cause more CO2 (not that CO2 is a problem anyway) so why on earth should they get any tax breaks?
March 4, 2024
@Mark B +1 – so very true
The Conservative Government has moved on from serving the Country to serving up jobs for mates
March 4, 2024
The Conservatives still think âmoderatesâ will be calling the shots when they are in opposition. We will see.
The Times article features Giles Brandrethâs daughter who campaigned last time in my constituency. I refused to open the door to her.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/one-nation-tories-primed-for-power-after-next-election-7m5wvnk76
March 4, 2024
Rishi actually said Covid vaccines are âUnequivocally safeâ not incontrovertiblyâ sorry.
Safe is defined as âfree from any threat, which may cause bodily injury, illness or death.”, âfree from doubtâ. The only doubt now is why on earth did Rishi say this to the House and to the public. Either he has not looked and is deluded or he is just lying. Few other explanations that I can see.
March 4, 2024
There should be a deadline for processing immigrants of one year, I don’t think they could meet six months let alone the three months. The ones here over a year being funded need returning immediately, if it is due to not having paperwork and they won’t tell you where they are from to return them and they can’t be traced what should happen, prison on a remote island?
March 4, 2024
Huntâs proposals should include an IMMIGRATION BUDGET.
That would show the full cost of:
⢠Hotels and accommodation
⢠Benefit payments
⢠Transport
⢠Home Office staff time
⢠Police time
⢠NHS treatment
⢠Legal fees & court expenses
⢠Translation facilities
⢠Adding dependants
âŚ. And the myriad of other costs involved in dealing with so many extra people.
If the true total cost became known, the policy would change to something more sensible.
March 4, 2024
Surely you all realise by now that we still have an imperial Establishment but no significant colonies to ‘manage'(or,in plain English,exploit) apart from……YOU!!
Now get back to work,serfs!
March 4, 2024
+1
March 4, 2024
Cutting 300000 legal immigrants still leaves 900000 and all the fully funded illegals and none of them ever go home as fixed contracts aren’t required as elsewhere on the planet and no illegals ever deported. Funny how France can do so even as members of the ECHR. Why aren’t these illegals taken back to France Sir John? Rwanda is a deliberate non workable red herring, a delaying tactic to hide real secret policy and a distraction to kick the can past the upcoming election. The Lords have just voted against Sounouts plan anyway. We need Reform.
March 4, 2024
The Minister is elected the OBR are political nobodies who should keep their mouths shut.
Why then do so many civil servants insist their advice is kept secret whilst some like the OBR publish every thing they want to.
The simple answer is the OBR confuse facts with interpretation of facts. Whilst the OBR are mandated with publishing GDP and inflation they are NOT mandated to publish their silly computer predictions.
If those predictions held any truth then all the banks would use them and accurately predict the future and be filling their boots. But alas no. Predictions are simply no more than machinations of civil servants. The OBR use those predictions to publicly steer Government policy because they believe there are credible facts in the output of their models, when analysis shows they are never correct by wide margins. Even their facts are hardly ever correct and need revising.
That is why whoever leaks non-facts should be sacked on the spot.
March 4, 2024
Compare the OBR with a bank.
If the regulator required me to publish my profit and loss or my equity positions every night I could be sacked by the regulator for refusing to publish facts.
Similarly if I published my banks own internal computer models I would be sacked by the bank for doing so.
There is a great deal of difference between publishing facts and opinions.
March 4, 2024
When the OBR publish their opinions in the form of computer predictions they are trying to steer political policy. This is political activism by the civil service and breaches their terms and conditions of employment.
March 4, 2024
OBR not needed or required same for ONS. Govt.s managed for hundreds of years without them, managed to be in control of BOE, layers of socialism embedded in public sector with socialists views steering socialist outcomes. Tory party is a deceitful tosh to hide their decisions and their the true intent of JRs left wing outfit.
March 4, 2024
Indeed though political activism by the Civil Service is clearly rife all over the place.
March 4, 2024
Blaire introduced it Tories should have reversed it, they did not they built on it! Guido pointed out relatives of opposition bench and socialist activists in OBR/ONS! Even in advisory roles in No.10 FFS, what more clues do they need to scrap them? Cameron had more quangos when he left after promising to scrap them!
Hunt likely to impose higher taxes on rich to pay for minor tax cuts!! Cut public spending ie the 90,000 scheduled by Rees-Mogg. This was scrapped by Sunak and Hunt!
Like the 4,000 EU laws, the bill to scrap EU legislation was scrapped but not the 4,000 EU laws! Sunak just introduced EU equality law made by ECJ judgements in EU law into domestic legislation, what does that tell you?
March 4, 2024
Exactly!
March 4, 2024
Computer modelling has led to many of the recent policy disasters. Lockdown, Net Zero, mass immigration and economic mismanagement. Plus reliance on computer evidence resulted in the Post Office scandal.
March 4, 2024
+1
March 4, 2024
I agree Javelin. The head blamed the treasury for inaccurate summaries that they published, there was absolutely no point of them and Boris should have cut them immediately and brought it back to the treasury team.
March 4, 2024
Who decides, and how, what are “non-facts” could be a problem. Throughout the last three years we have been presented with “facts” about a health issue that have later turned out to be non-facts. Thankfully a few cross party MP’s are now asking for data that should clarify one or two “facts” we were told! Whether the data will be forthcoming is another matter.
March 4, 2024
Tax cuts are a product of political will and moral values and has absolutely nowt to do with affordability. Slashing direct taxes and slashing the funding used to finance Labour’s parasitic client state is the moral way forward. Any other route is the product of a feeble mind that has been corrupted by decades of Socialist luxury politics and doesn’t deserve to be holding the reins of power
March 4, 2024
I know young go-getters who could be earning over ÂŁ100k but decide to only work 4 days per week, and take extra holidays because with grad tax would be paying 71% tax to earn between ÂŁ100k and ÂŁ125k, older generations would have just sucked this up but the modern people have been trained to value their time over making money for the Country, work-life balance is now more important.
March 4, 2024
Agree â and Iâd be more impressed if Hunt said he was completely reforming the tax book, cutting it in half, combining PAYE & NI, removing council tax with a central grant and VAT with a purchase tax âŚ.its time to be bold
And youâre right DOM taxation isnât economics its social engineering
March 4, 2024
Do you want PAYE combined? That would mean pensioners paying 30% instead of 20%. Would you also combine the Employers NI 13.8% on every ÂŁ1 over the lel? It really doesn’t make any difference other than on cumulative tax burden, income tax is averaged each month, NI isn’t one peak month and you pay higher, a low paid month the next month you don’t get a rebate, but that could be fixed. If you combine them there is no longer a thinking that one is for social taxes healthcare and State pension. In other countries there are about five reductions for different matters.
There are people that want labour to not reduce the NI at the higher rate to 2% they want them to keep it higher would you also agree with that? Or a more flat tax perhaps 8% on every ÂŁ1 so everyone pays and feel like they’re contributing?
March 4, 2024
I agree. Low taxes is a moral thing (and let’s try and get taxes right, right down). However, at same time, so many people in our country are dysfunctional from one degree to another (I don’t mean in a moral / spiritual sense – I’m not God – NOT judging them in that sense) but in the sense of being good, solid citizens or rather not being good, solid citizen (failing in: having strong work ethic / family-life values / being properly masculine or feminine / depending on self and family instead of state / helping the vulnerable through sense of public duty as opposed to socialist high taxes / patriotism and so on).
And so for every time Tories talk about good / great things such as sovereignty / low taxes etc, they must also talk about how to HELP / ENCOURAGE people to get their lives back together. Not about handing out money etc. But giving moral support / encouragement. And so the Tory Party needs to align itself closer to The Churches and those in Education / Media / the Arts. And consider things such as re-introducing national service for three months or something (where every young person either has to do military service for three months and / or voluntary service – could be to help with flooding, visit the elderly, pick up rubbish, clean our cities etc).
March 4, 2024
Unfortunately Hunt is going to make a muck of it. The only ones making money in the U.K. are those in the booming black economy.
March 4, 2024
Hunt likes the Chinese system, he wanted their lockdown, his wife appears on Chinese state TV.
March 4, 2024
Or companies renting rooms to companies like Serco etc. for migrants. Or Crony capitalists like those in the grant farming net zero industries. Or people working in law, tax advice, accounting, compliance, planning consultants helping people cope with the absurdly OTT regulations that spew out every day or their asylum applications or resisting deportation. or human rights lawyers.
But generally producing almost nothing of any real use or value.
March 5, 2024
Or those getting their payback from the Ukrainian washing machine!
March 4, 2024
I wouldn’t say it was strange that a battle between Chancellor and OBR is being played out in public.
An orchestrated plea to the public is more likely, to show that the Chancellor is on our side and someone else is to blame.
It’s a long standing joke that the public can always tell when an election is in the offing, as the party in charge suddenly cut a mad dash to bring about all they’d promised to get themselves elected to office.
March 4, 2024
and make promises that might sound attractive, but knowing they won’t keep them, and that the incoming lot will totally ignore them.
March 4, 2024
Indeed plus a huge increase in adverts like the ones for Transport for London, the NHS, heat-pump grants, benefit help and the likes. The Government and Mayor like to get the taxpayers to pay for their back door election advert if they can get away with it.
March 4, 2024
The OBR cannot insist on anything. The Chancellor makes the decisions. That is how our constitution works. Do please stop trying to shift blame and responsibility away from the Conservative government
March 4, 2024
Yes, the ‘Not our fault Guv’..’ approach seen here is about as tiresome as the.. ‘they will be even worse than us’ non argument.
However, perhaps our kind host will do us a service and take a look at the budget when he can, and split out day to day spending, operating costs if you like, with capital spending, or fixed asset investment. The speech often flits between the two. What we need to know is, is day to day spending covered by taxation, from all quarters, and by how much? If government is still borrowing, even at these appallingly high tax rates, to pay those expenses, then we have serious incompetent management in place.
March 4, 2024
@Lemming – you appear to be suggesting that this Conservative Government should step-up and take on the responsibility and accountability we empowered and paid them for.
March 4, 2024
I think they should. But they have obviously decided not to, and instead to blame Islamists, wokerati, the EU, civil servants, the Bank of England, the Financial Times (did I miss anyone?) instead. Voters will respond accordingly
March 4, 2024
Do you think the OBR had zero effect on Truss’s government, on Kwasi Kwarteng?
All the newspapers were reporting the OBRs dire warnings. They were furious when “Kwasi Kwarteng has refused to let a government watchdog assess the economic impact of planned tax cuts expected in a mini-budget on Friday.” and tried to take his own responsibility and the was then to be brought down.
March 4, 2024
It is probably too late for this Government. The Budget would need to contain something radical for the electorate to believe that change is in the air. The abolition of the OBR might get people’s attention. The resignations of Hunt and Sunak just might start to turn the tide provided their replacements are credible Conservatives.
March 4, 2024
Why would you give credit for the 300000 planned cut in legal migration when you were the cause of the problem in the first place.
March 4, 2024
Still leaving immigration at around 800,000 annually.
March 4, 2024
Exactly. And as this Government have allowed 1.2 MILLION in in the last 12 months and the same the year before, that still means they are happy to allow 900,000 in each year. Add the illegals on top and weâre still around the one million mark. And weâre supposed to be impressed by their plans, and thatâs all they are. Theyâre taking us for fools.
March 4, 2024
The Tory alledged ‘government’ is naive, weak and a danger to our culture. It’s destruction is concious and deliberate but will always have loyal members and MPs no matter how it betrays and fails us.
March 4, 2024
about one million stopped still won’t be enough to begin to address the mess going on in our social benefits committment!
March 4, 2024
Indeed. The Tory’s are actively importing legal and illegal immigrants to give them free housing, health and welfare benefits immediately without any contribution ever. Madness. That’s Tory policy. Fact. Reform as we’re desperate for them to go. The 46% can’t afford these deliberate policies.
March 4, 2024
Planned cut? As much use as a Conservative minister’s promise.
JF
March 4, 2024
BBC video Europe’s migration crisis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=diLJYBRpPcs
Luxembourg has the highest share of non-nationals in its population (47.1%), but also the largest share of migrants from other European countries (91% of the total in 2021). In four EU countries, Croatia, Greece, Lithuania and Romania, emigration is higher than immigration.14 Dec 2023
The largest groups of migrants in Europe were nationals of Morocco, Albania, India, Turkey and Pakistan. 2.4 million non-EU migrants entered the EU in 2017. In addition, cheaper transportation and more advanced technology have further aided migration.
EU migrant flows intensify in 2021 (eurostat) In absolute terms, the biggest populations of foreign-born citizens (from other EU members and non-EU countries) were registered in Germany (15.3 million people), France (8.7 million) and Spain (7.4 million).29 Mar 2023 (European Commission)
“While each of the 32 nations in the EU and EFTA had some unauthorized immigrants in 2017, the largest numbers were in Germany and the United Kingdom, amounting to about half of Europeâs total. Substantial shares also lived in Italy and France. Together, these four countries were home to more than two-thirds (70%) of Europeâs unauthorized immigrants. By comparison, Germany, the UK, Italy and France accounted for slightly more than half of Europeâs total population in 2017.” Pew Research
March 4, 2024
The over 1 million legal & largely low skilled migrants PA that lower GDP per cap, increase government spending, lower other peopleâs wages (reducing their tax take) and increase pressure on houses, schools, roads, energy, police, nurseries, transport, universities, social service, prisons, the justice systemâŚ
A Telegraph analysis of police data shows that no burglaries at all were solved in 48 per cent of neighbourhoods â areas covering between 1,000 and 3,000 people â in the past three years. But the state is extremely good at mugging motorist who park a few minutes longer than usual. I was once under two minutes late had a ticket on the windscreen and the council employed parking mugger was no where to be seen. Doubtless if they see a burglary they just ignore it and issue more mugging tickets.
March 4, 2024
After reviewing comments across the internet I can report 90% of the voters are very angry that the Conservatives have imported millions of low paid migrants and prioritised them over the existing population. The general view of Conservative voters online is to get them out of office ASAP.
March 4, 2024
+many
Excuses after excuse when they could scrap these quangos. Not only could but should because 14 years ago Cameron promised to have a bonfire of them! In 2009 Tory party promised to balance the structural deficit and start paying down the debt! It was then 2017,2019,2021 then abandoned. Now it is the same excuses and everyone elseâs fault!
March 4, 2024
And replace them with a party that will accelerate this march to the bottom.
When will voters realise that the Tory party endorsed Labour’s Neo-Marxist woke cultural and demographic revolution out of political convenience and fear of being demonised by the politics of Stalinist denunciation ie accusations of racism and xenophobia?
The Tory party can be saved. Labour is a dangerous presence to our remaining freedoms
As an aside. The term extremism does not need redefining. We all know what it is when we see it.
March 4, 2024
+1
March 4, 2024
Who are Ipsos asking “22 Nov 2019 â Half of Britons (49%) agree that immigration enriches the UK culture and makes it a more interesting place to live” https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/almost-half-britons-view-immigrants-impact-britain-positive-despite-most-saying-they-want
“Only 54% want the number of immigrants coming to Britain to decrease, compared to 66% in 2015.” says Ipsos
March 4, 2024
My experience too.
Tory voters are very very angry.
March 4, 2024
Thatâs an understatement âŚ.theyâre bloody furious
March 4, 2024
Nobody I know is intending to vote âforâ anyone, they are all intent on voting âagainstâ. If Johnson were still PM the swing might be even worse. Tories searching for a scenario which would leave them in Parliament are deluding themselves.
You will all be judged on your own merit. Itâs every man for himself. You might be the only Tory returned Sir John!
March 4, 2024
+1
March 4, 2024
The budget is largely irrelevant. The Conservative Party is already past redemption now.
March 4, 2024
I don’t know Peter, people are very concerned about how much tax they personally pay and what promised tax rises on higher earners, people with houses bigger than band C and the promise that those with the broadest shoulders with be shouldering more of the burden than they do now.
March 4, 2024
…how much they pay AND how it is wasted!
March 5, 2024
They don’t seem to mind the NHS wasting it and blaming everything on the government minister rather than their own mismanagement.
The Kings Fund: “What is the NHS budget? Public funding for health services in England comes from the Department of Health and Social Care’s budget. The Department’s spending in 2022/23 was ÂŁ181.7 billion. The vast majority of this spending (94.6 per cent, or ÂŁ171.8 billion) was on day-to-day items such as staff salaries and medicines.”
“The vast majority of public1 NHS funding comes from general taxation and National Insurance contributions (NICs). A small proportion of funding (1.0 per cent of the total Department of Health and Social Care budget in 2021/22) comes from patient charges for services such as prescriptions and dental treatment.”
They don’t say how much comes in from patients who are not from the UK, visitors travel insurance, rebilling EU nations for the health cards. Is that all ÂŁ0. That is the first place I’d look and treat visitors in private hospitals that can do the billing. Get a credit card machine in A&E and charge per visit if they don’t hold a current NHS number.
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/insight-and-analysis/data-and-charts/nhs-budget-nutshell
March 4, 2024
Sir John – I think that Peter is hinting that many of your colleagues are already Toast !
Hopefully mainly from the Lib Dem arm of your Party.
March 4, 2024
not just an arm, probably 4 limbs.
March 4, 2024
How much longer is it before James Cleverly, our Home Secretary, grasps the nettle and sorts out our obviously failing police “service” Today a national newspaper reports that in half of our country, the police have failed to solve a single burglary – despite their instructions to attend every break-in
In the highly disturbing case of Wayne Couzens, the man who abducted, raped and killed Sarah Everard and who is now being investigated in regards to other women who have disappeared in Kent, how does a man like that pass police vetting and become a police officer?
The seemingly endless succession of miscarriages of justice (the Post Office Horizon scandal is the tip of the iceberg) ( may in some cases ed) have one thing in common – the police incompetently got the wrong man and then fabricated evidence to convict him – known as “fitting him up” in the vernacular. And this also shows that something is seriously amiss with our criminal justice system.
Here is a list of things that Cleverly should consider:-
A) Membership of secret societies is incompatible with being a police officer. They should be given the choice – leave the secret society, or leave the police service.
B) All police officers of whatever rank should be subject to random drug and alcohol tests when they report for duty and checks on their babk accounts should be made monthly
C) Officers involved in miscarriages of justice must be dismissed the service and themselves prosecuted for conspiracy
Its time that the whole rotten barrels of police are removed wholesale from the sercive
March 4, 2024
Evidence suggests the OBR and the Treasury see themselves as the second state. It was they who undoubtedly did for Liz Truss along with the BOE. All have proved wanting in the production of accurate forecasts. Are their forecasts little more than what they want to happen to suit their unspecified political end.
If the Chancellor is not bold and fails to support enterprise, the SMEs, and individuals of entrepreneurial inclination, he will be writing this governments epitaph. The aim should be to raise 21st place personal GDP to parallel that of the immigration induced national 6th place GDP. There is no evidence that consocialism wants this, they prefer a dependant society.
March 4, 2024
If the OBR really is to determine policy over the heads of the elected govt then we really need to elect the OBR. I want policy determined by rigorous public debate and scrutiny with elections so we voters can give our verdict. Officials who are not elected should not have policy making power.
March 4, 2024
It is odd to read this article – talking about the chancellor listening to the forecasts and making a decision about whatâs best for the economy! Pull the other one! The budget is a political tool to try to improve the polling before an election.
How will that play? Who will that affect? What will the media say? Blah, blah.
March 4, 2024
So the Chancellor who presided over the largest growth in national debt in living memory is now PM, in charge of a government now struggling to address the colossal tax burden it created as a result. And for what ? Remind me what test-and-trace was all about. Remind me what the Nightingale hospitals were for. Remind me why many millions in the productive economy were told to stay at home, and still got paid taxpayers’ money for it. Ah yes, the ‘killer virus’ that was a threat to us all. Except that it wasn’t.
Time for your government to shut down the Covid inquiry, stop wasting any more money on it, and make a simple apology: “Sorry, we got Covid wrong. And we’re sacking those who gave us such bad advice.” If the government did that, I wouldn’t mind believing it was all a mistake.
March 4, 2024
We are not governed by those we elect- they just do as they are told by their masters which is relayed to them by the unelected trash ( senior âCivil Servantsâ- we need to change their description).
How did it develop like this?
March 4, 2024
This ‘government’ could have abolished the OBR – but didn’t. I’m rather sick and tired of seeing political power outsourced, away from ministers who will then claim that they can’t do anything. And has an inquiry been conducted into recruitment at the OBR? No, of course it hasn’t.
I was interested to see that the opinion-polling needle hasn’t moved, despite the NI cut in January. I’m sticking with my theory that fiscal measures alone won’t save the Conservatives. A good budget might reduce Labour’s lead by a third, but winning needs a new leader, sounder policies, and sure-footed execution – and these will all demand the time that can only come from delaying the general election until next January.
The next vote-winning opportunity, after this week, will be the firmest of action to reduce LEGAL migration. Robert Jenrick understands that; Rishi Sunak doesn’t.
March 4, 2024
I totally agree, Sea_Warrior, but who should be the new leader ?
It has to be someone firm on both legal and illegal migration and prepared to take on the OBR and Bank of England more subtly than Liz Truss.
I would think Penny Mordaunt fits the bill, but is she up to the job ? Not sure at this point, so close to an election.
I think that by MPs foisting Sunak and Hunt on the party, they are going to lose the election whoever leads it to the polls.
If Mordaunt replaces Sunak after the election, in opposition she should easily outsmart Starmer at PMQs.
But then, Nigel Farage may come to the rescue. He would totally wipe the floor with Starmer and Co and I would think could be the only person who could turn things around in just one parliament. But he is definitely a Marmite personality.
March 6, 2024
Farage is less capable than Mordant, who is hopeless. You are so far from a solution that frankly I canât see why your object to Starmer (or whoever replaces him shortly after the electionâŚ) –
March 4, 2024
No, Sounout doesn’t want to reduce it. Suella has told us that already. He doesn’t have the same desires as the traditional indigenous population.
March 4, 2024
Conservatives are voted in because earners want to be better off. Labour are voted for by the client state.
In trying to be a nicer party Conservatives have given too much to the client state and increased the size of government.
Forecasts in five years time will be wholly inaccurate but government policy should be to reduce spending massively as a proportion of GDP. The client state is not giving to vote Conservative anyway so slash the state and benefits. Especially to anyone who has not paid tax. Why are you giving more free childcare to people whose job doesn’t pay enough to cover having their children looked after? Why are we paying housing for immigrants? Immigration is supposed to be hard.
March 4, 2024
What Orwellian doublespeak is this? 300,000 CUT in legal migration? So, 400,000 this year instead of 700,000 last year!!! How does allowing 400,000 into the country REDUCE pressure on social housing and public service. It doesnât. It INCREASES it! A lot. So another two cuties the size of Southampton this year – to add to the three new Southamptons last year.
March 4, 2024
But the Increase in taxes might be marginally slower than recent years (grin).
March 5, 2024
The Ministry of Truth is firmly established in Downing St, London.
March 4, 2024
I wouldn’t rely on the budget to change the polling position one iota.
The public know that the scene has been set over 14 years whereby taxes are taken from the strivers and given to the shirkers and incomers, ministers mates, overseas projects, pointless HS2, dysfunctional NHS and green lunacy. Money is printed and inflation eats at savings to pay for an extended flu holiday.
Then an elected new leader who does suggest fundamental change is overthrown by powers that be in your party to push the loser into P1.
No budget can change these facts. No budget could nor should save this bunch from obliteration.
March 6, 2024
Oh I think this budget will change the polling position substantially. In fact Iâm certain of it!
March 4, 2024
Off Topic.
High winds in Nevada and Utah have swept in huge amounts of tumbleweeds, causing disruption on streets and surrounding houses. The National Weather Service has issued a weather alert for Nevada, parts of Arizona, and Californiaâs Death Valley, with winds expected to reach up to 35mph.
Perhaps after the non-event on Wednesday sinks in, the same might happen to Downing St?
March 4, 2024
I’d suggest that we’ve had tory tumbleweed economic policy for the past decade ….dead and moribund policies blowing in the wind
March 4, 2024
Sir John, when you say a lot rests on the budget, I would have to say in one sense you are tight. About twelve of us will be in our favourite speak easy pub on Wednesday and who ever gets the closest to the budget actuality is allowed free beer. Those offering up a 1p cut in income tax are discounted for stating the bleeding obvious.
On the other hand, if your ‘lot’ refers to the Tory governments chances at the next election then you are over optimistic about this budget and what it can do to say the least.
March 4, 2024
âI find it strange that for weeks we can all read in the papers of a struggle between the Chancellor who wants to offer tax cuts, and the officials of the OBR and Treasury who do not want him to do that.â
It is not strange at all. The Chancellor wants to give the voter the impression he wants to make tax cuts but in reality he doesnât want to do this at all so he tells the OBR to produce models and forecasts to show this would not be prudent.
Just as the Government tells the voters at election time that they will reduce immigration to âtens of thousandsâ and then issues 1.4m visas in a single year informing the public through various quangos, NGOs etc. that we need to import all these people and this is the only way to grow GDP.
March 4, 2024
Don’t your government have Rachel Reeves husband as a Director in the Cabinet Office’s Economic dept. You won’t have to look far to see who is spinning and leaking bad news on a regular basis.
What other lefties, married to those on the left work in the OBR, Treasury, and newspapers leaking stories?
March 4, 2024
âThey [the OBR] themselves would agree that the only thing we can be sure about is their 5 year out forecast will be wrong. No one can give an accurate spot forecast for public borrowing that far distant.â
I think we will find that these forecasts will become a lot more accurate if and when Labour forms the next government.
March 4, 2024
“Credit should be given for the planned cut of 300,000 in legal migration greatly reducing pressures on social housing and public service.”
Firstly this hasn’t happened yet and secondly this still leaves the issuance of 1.1m visas.
March 4, 2024
âď¸ I support your statement totally Richard 100 %
March 4, 2024
If its legal to send them to Rwanda its legal to send them to the Scottish Hebrides âŚand a hundred times cheaper
March 4, 2024
gc :
The solution is to return the boats back to France.
March 4, 2024
Jumbo flights to Paris even cheaper.
March 6, 2024
NOT TO THE HEBRIDES! Not to anywhere in the U.K. Sunderland has been swamped as a punishment for voting for Brexit.
March 4, 2024
Classic blame diversion. You made the bed, how many years is it that the public sector has wasted billions, how many times have we heard about bonfire of regulations, precisely . You lay on it.
And we are now being treated like idiots, again. Competence justifying little action and tax cuts funded by, err tax rises elsewhere,
A Whitehall farce but not funny.
March 4, 2024
The OBR a Conservative Government invention, that has no purpose, doesnât add more to the conversation that wasnât there before. Then the real situation they are always wrong and they always blame someone else, just as the Conservative Chancellor that created it.
March 4, 2024
Cutting Income or NI taxes, now, will increase Aggregate Demand, and yes, feed straight into Inflation!
Surely, the Treasury has modelled it effect?
From an Economic perspective, it’s a silly thing to do, but from a Political Perspective, a quick bribe, would suit the Conservative Party! But, I think People will see past it!
The clever thing to do, at this moment, is to increase the Business Activity Rare and Investment!
Focus cuts on Corp, VAT/VAT Thresholds, Fuel Duty, Business Rates, etc,…
Supply-side Reforms, Free markets up, and de-regulation are just as important, if not more!
Reform Self Employment, Contractors, Owner Drivers, and Family SME’s, to simplify, and reduce the cost of doing business! IR35, Reduce the need for Accountants, etc,…
Reform Social structures (Only idiots would try to cut benefits, at this time), Devolution with all the baggage, reducing the cost of our social structures (Assembly’s, Mayors, Councils, Quangos) !
Then, cuts to Government spending will define how far the Conservative Party will be able to go! Given they have done very little so far, it isn’t going to be very far!
Green Subsidies, all Net Zero, from local, as well as central, government!
Energy supply will be critical! A Cheap Energy Strategy can give a major boost (Fracking, increased North Sea Oil&Gas)! UK based Diesel Refining (Cheaper then importing)!
Transport (HGV) Productivity, heavy specialist loads, longer continental trips, Cheaper Operating cost (Licensing, Maintenance, Insurance, Fuel), and, to this without affecting safety or damage! The single truck, Owner Driver is by far the most efficient way to go!
You might need to cut International/Ukraine Aid
But, seems all too little to late?
BR
RDM
March 4, 2024
Excellent change from the normal simplistic suggestions we get. However too late an understatement. Needs Strategic directional change, give that months if not years. Policy work up plus legislation creation/implementation and even then months/years for the effects to be seen.
Would be a good start to Tory manifesto to be ready in five/ten years time.
March 4, 2024
âIâd prefer to be Nigel Lawson but I need to be prudent like Gordon Brown, says Jeremy Hunt ahead of Budgetâ
As Sir John pointed out âHe doesnât understand the first thing about Nigel Lawson and Margaret Thatcherâs tax cutting strategy,â
Most of us commenting here do âget-itâ though, if you grow the economy, if you control spending, balance the budget, i.e. manage – reducing tax becomes self-financing.
As for the prudence of Gordon Brown! Chancellor Hunt is still looking for ways to off load some of the ÂŁ45bn of debt that Brown has left us with by selling NatWest. That wasnât prudence that was stupidity. To get out of the âdo-doâ Brown and his mates created, they had to sell the UKâs gold reserves, the UKs Nuclear Power capability (Westinghouse). We will all be paying for this prudence for the next generation or more. That is what Jeremy Hunt calls prudence â the destruction of the UK
March 4, 2024
Have you noticed how gold continues to flow eastwards in readiness,I would suggest,for what might be called Bretton Woods III-that event will blow the UK out of the water.
March 4, 2024
He should also abolish all the market rigging the government do and fire all those people too. In energy, banking, BBC licence fees, education, housing, transport – rigged against road transport, universities, net zero, healthcare giving the NHS a near monopoly for most peopleâŚ
March 4, 2024
Budget responsibility is the Chancellorâs.
This one bungles in gambling attempts at trial and error, making far too many errors.
We need to replace him with a capable one.
March 4, 2024
May be the overseas aid budget should be used to fund all these criminals this Conservative Government is promoting to invade our shores, as it is 100% clear they have no intention of stopping them â far from it they are encouraging them. A backlog of criminal claims to stay, just give them all a free pass, is the Rishi way to tackle the problem. The overseas budget would still be looking after the citizens of the countries we send the aid too.
March 4, 2024
Why not be courageous and say directly that the OBR should be abolished, and immediately?
March 4, 2024
Today the Chancellor announces ÂŁ360 million boost to UK manufacturing ….but its all linked to decarbonisation …the green revolution continues, long live net-zero
March 4, 2024
Lots of tax cutting advice around in the media at the moment. All pushing personal agendas all looking to put someone else in the frame to pay – the entailment brigade is out in force. If on the day after the budget this Conservative Government cut their own waste, cut their own drive to create division with excess taxpayer funded discrimination departments. Made the good on the 14-year-old promises to cut the Quangos and so on. In reality that is doing the job and taking responsibility, called managing, creating a balanced budget, controlling spend. Spending works when there are defined results with responsibility and accountability attached â something this Conservative Government gave up when it became the National Socialist Party. If they started the actions instantly not kicking it down the road until after the GE, there might just be something in it. We all know it wonât happen as it means upsetting their mates with their none jobs, as they also know that will be themselves after the election.
The suspicion is we will get announcements on spurious tax reduction that amount to shuffling the pack, but also with the GE in mind it will be to bait the other Socialist Gang âLabourâ. What is wonât be as has been proven in all recent pronouncements a Conservative Government managing and having a clue as to its job. It wonât be to drive UK Industry and Commerce forward; it wonât be to create and keep wealth that contributes in the UK
March 4, 2024
Why is it suggested that Hunt wants to mess around with national Insurance contributions?
I know in practice it doesnât quite work out, the sums donât add up, but surely it would be nice to see that NI became just that a proper funded Insurance scheme. Governments keep playing and messing things around with sleight of hand and double talk. NI has a multitude of problems, its not enough to fund the NHS and its not being used to create a pension pot â that is all down to the deceit of Government. UK Governments get to run the Worldâs largest Ponzi scheme (Berni Madoff received a sentence of 150years for running this sort of scheme) and treated like heroes. We either have a proper NI or we donât have it at all corrupting tax is not managing tax
March 4, 2024
The point being you canât trust Governments, so often something is collected for one expenditure specific purpose then gets absorbed and distributed as general taxation. Then the original purpose gets neglected. Think ‘road fund license’, the motorist gets hammered, but the money intended for our infrastructure has gone somewhere else.
NI was created primarily for pensions and health care, if you are paying for it you think you would be covered. Maybe you have to pay more but it should enjoy some sort of relationship to those paying. If it canât be done correctly, why have it, let us all go private at least we know where we stand.
March 4, 2024
While so far in this diary there is not much optimism relating to the budget I have been giving thought to the underlying cause of our collective pesimision.
We live under a system we call democracy. Descrjbed by Winston Churchill as a less than perfect system that’s virtue is that it is better than any other system of governance.
Democracy is a gentlemens agreement, in the UK unsupported by a written constitution because it gives us evolutionary flexibility. Various parties set out their wares and the electorate decide where to buy. Accepting world pressures, we do not live in a vacuum, it is the responsibility of the elected government to carry out its programme.
This democratic system has worked reasonably well until the advent of the 1997 Blair government. I do not recall any manifesto indication from him that he would open the UK borders to a flood of immigrants, many of whom came from cultures totally alien to UK culture. This was a black day for democracy. The process was accelerated by various UK governments since who have exceeded and abused the permission of the electorate. I cite:-
1. The failure of government to accept the EU referendum result of 2016.
2. The arrival of Nett Zero, as if by magic.
3. The imposition of ULEZ in London and elsewhere.
4. Our host highlights one in his own constituency where local LD government are intent on spending ÂŁ25 million on a solar farm. I doubt if they asked the ratepayers for permission. You may know of more.
Looking for causes I would note that:-
1. Membership of the EU shifted responsibility for law to an undemocratic body in Brussels and in effect took our judiciary with it.
2. Responsibility for specific governance was shifted from Parliament to 600 plus quangos, putting their activities outside democratjc control.
3. Too many organisations exercise power outside the democratic process via the lobby system.
4. The Civil Service suffer Stockholm Syndrome as returned POWs from the EU.
The next government must take on board what has happened and return democracy to the people, and realise that it is an evolving system. The danger being that we opt for one of Winston’ s less perfect systems.
March 4, 2024
+1
March 4, 2024
Cut government spending more by cutting legal immigration to 100k. Also reform the calculation of government debt levels by explicitly taking into account debt owned by the Bank of England – as you have rightly suggested.
March 4, 2024
What is the point of having the OBR or any advising bodies that exist outside of a so called ” managed ” Treasury ?. Government policy is a matter and the responsibility of elected individuals ; if voters dislike what is decided they have the right and method of change . Today we have had enough of the economic mess and change must occur to restore our dignity and respect in the world .
March 4, 2024
As well as neighbourhoods changing forever before our eyes and the roads literally turning to gravel, people sense that they are getting poorer and poorer by the day.
Lower inflation isn’t going to stop that feeling. The shop worker sees the prices going up but not her wages, any pay rises are only those that are enforced by law over the merciless supermarkets. There must surely have been some windfall to the Treasury from inflation on VAT. Where has it gone ?
March 4, 2024
Perhaps Hunt and Sunak can learn something from the large electoral success in the by election of the George Galloway who campaigned for a referendum on Net Zero. More than three times the vote of the Conservative candidate.
Why even a referendum though – just cancel the obvious net zero fraud and total lunacy now.
March 4, 2024
This alleged struggle between the Chancellor and officials of the OBR and Treasury is pure political theatre. – It gives the Chancellor the excuse to avoid stimulating the economy with persuasive tax cuts and so on.
We know the Chancellor colludes very closely with the Treasury, so anything that passes from Treasury to OBR must have his agreement.
I’m not expecting this budget to be any more effective in stimulating the economy than previous budgets from this government.. We might see a few handouts to persuade voters to stick with social-Toryism, but we will not see a major change supporting the economy or stop it falling into a total decline.
March 4, 2024
A great deal could be cut from government spending :
First, very rapidly reduce the number of public sector employees to pre-pandemic levels.
Secondly, bring all public sector jobs in line with terms and conditions in the private sector.
It is a nonsense that public sector employees have historic terms and conditions far better than the rest of us.
It also means the end of ruinously expensive final salary pension schemes which are no longer available in the private sector. This should apply to MPs as well.
Finally, it is a nonsence that we read today that undocumented sickness in the Civil Service is now running at more than 8 days a year per employee.
March 4, 2024
The only things Hunt should be considering is overloading of the country with people he has to find homes for with money we have not got; increasing the personal allowance so that pensioners do not have to pay anymore money on little pensions they took out to make their later years more comfortable; if he wants to reduce income tax, so be it. NI only helps certain categories in the country. He needs to look at the whole picture. Brown had the right idea which the fool jettisoned by reducing tax to 10% on low incomes. Don’t know why no one has the brains to do these simple things.
March 4, 2024
Latest IPSO Poll, in the Standard
Conservatives 20%, Labour 47%, LibDems 9%, Reform 8% (reform is not taking Tory votes 20 + 8 is still well behind)
The dissatisfaction listâŚ
Mr Sunak his rating PM reaches a record low of 73% dissatisfied(19% satisfied)
Sir Keir Starmerâs rating as Labour leader dropped, with 55% dissatisfied(29% satisfied)
Sir Ed Daveyâs rating is also down, with 40% dissatisfied,(18% satisfied)
Jeremy Hunt dip to a new low, with 56% dissatisfied(22% satisfied)
Rachel Reeves âmost capable Chancellorâ 39%?
Dissatisfaction with the Government has also hit 83%
Labour vs Conservative â doing a good job listâŚ
on taxation, by 32% to 19 %
public services by 43% to 11%
people in work by 40% to 15%
public spending by 35% to 16%
As of today 62, Conservative MPâs will not stand at the election.
The weird takeaways, we have Sunak/Hunt our pretend Dictators banging out Socialist groupthink instead of managing the Country, its Expenditure etc. all of which adds up to meaning the economy. CCHQ the Conservative Party in all this either they donât care, they have rolled over and seeded defeat â or they see their job of destroying the UKâs Conservatives and are now ready for the next challenge.
Then the amusing bit here in Wokingham today the LibDems are out in force canvassing!
March 4, 2024
but apart from all that are you happy with them?
March 4, 2024
Youâre saying the OBR should actually believe there will be a 300,000 decrease in legal immigration ? That would be very imprudent of them based on past promises by the Conservatives, in their last election manifesto for example which absurdly said that overall immigration numbers would fall ! The OBR would do better to assume there will be a massive increase in legal immigration.
March 4, 2024
The Conservative party is a busted flush already, it doesn’t matter what happens now…
March 4, 2024
I wonder if there will be any allocated funds in the budget for France ….they’re all doing a grand job stoping the boats
March 4, 2024
but they bring the people over for us, saves the RNLI having to go get them.
March 5, 2024
To save life, my surprised both UK/France governments haven’t agree a special train …you know; to save life
March 4, 2024
I see Ken Clarke the tino (Tory in name only), telling Hunt today that he mustn’t “buy votes” with budget tax cuts. A reminder:- In his final pre-election budget in November 1996, Ken Clarke as Chancellor cut the basic rate of income tax by 1p, raised the personal tax allowance, the IHT allowance (by 40% over two years), widened the 20p and 40p tax thresholds, reduced the small companies’ Corporation tax rate, and did not increase their business tax. He increased the Married Couples’ Tax Allowance. He added to the crime-fighting budget. He actually reduced the duty on spirits. He also reduced the budget for low-cost rented housing and phased out lone-parent benefit supplement. He described his budget as a “Rolls-Royce recovery â built to last”. Of course, in no way was any of this, coming as it did after years of economic slump and homeowner hardship resulting from the fall-out to our woefully misguided adoption of EMU (pushed by europhiles such as Ken Clarke), an inducement to disillusioned Conservatives to vote Conservative….
….Oh look, I can see little round, pink animals with snputs and curly tails flying past the window….
March 5, 2024
Well remembered!
March 4, 2024
It’s clear from the inaccuracy of the various financial models from the OBR and the Treasury, they cannot be relied upon to provide a half decent prediction as to future budgetary requirements. So why does the Chancellor still trust them to deliver?
Is it not way past time that he gave the task to an organisation in the Private sector who specialise in predictive accuracy? With penalties for errors? While at the same time, severely cutting down on the Quangos and ballooning civil service numbers?
Given the apparent new routine of working from home (or the beach), that should not be too much a problem to resolve, as it demonstrates many of the employees are not necessary to have on a full-time basis.
March 5, 2024
The OBR should be abolished, or even better privatised.
March 5, 2024
The OBR is a recent and unnecessary introduction. It has not proved its worth and should be shut down. The idea of independence for the Bank of England has also failed to prove its worth and should be ended. This will give the Chancellor much greater and more effective control of the Governmentâs financial and economic policy.
Reply I have always disliked the OBR and proposed floating it off as a truly independent forecaster to earn its living outside government.
March 5, 2024
NO …don’t float it off, disband it, disband it today ….or admit you’re just ‘new-labour’
March 5, 2024
I heard some pensioners talking today while they waited to go into their bridge club. They were incensed that Hunt is proposing once again to cut NI instead of income tax. They see this as Baldrick-level cunning plan to actively exclude pensioners from benefiting from any such cut – also by freezing income tax allowances which drags the State pension into the income tax net.
Overall, they said the Tories have “actively harmed their core vote for years” as one put it.
I have to wonder – are the current PM and Chancellor really so politically unaware?
March 5, 2024
Neither the Prime Minister nor the Chancellor is prepared to cut public expenditure significantly, so any tax cuts will be trivial, dwarfed by the additional revenue for the Exchequer caused by fiscal drag on income tax.
March 6, 2024
Hunt May as well not have bothered. Fiddle faddle. VAT registration threshold increased by ÂŁ10,000. Why bother?
This is not an election winning budget.
Iâm afraid the Tories are finished.