Bernanke needs to be radical in his review of the Bank of England

Ben Bernanke knows a lot about Central banks getting things wrong. On his watch at the Fed he saw inflation hit 5.6% in 2008 before watching it collapse along with important parts of the banking system. He was there for  the banking crash and great recession of 2008-10. He pioneered the money printing and bond buying policy that lies behind the wild ride the UK has experienced in inflation and growth 2019-24.

Recommending the same people on the MPC be asked to publish their own differing forecasts will not solve the problem, as there is too much groupthink on the MPC. Telling them to publish a range of scenarios does not help much either, because what we need and want to guide money policy is a reliable base forecast. How else can they set a good interest rate if they have no idea what inflation is going to be. That is why I have set out the need to completely change their forecasting models, to take money and credit seriously, and to recruit different people to provide diversity of thought.

1.The Bank should immediately conduct an internal review into its
models and forecasting to find out why it got inflation so wrong and to
propose amendments that would have produced better outcomes. It should
back test changes to the model to make sure they would result in material
improvements.

2.The Bank should produce an analysis of the role of money and
credit in inflation and discuss how this can be monitored and used in helping
make policy decisions about rates and money creation going forward.

3.The Bank should ensure in its future recruitment to senior roles on
the staff and to external appointments on its committee that it appoints to
obtain a greater diversity of views about economics and inflation. It should
wish to have representatives of the main strands of economic thought on the
important topics around the table.

4.The Bank should reward staff when it hits targets for accuracy of
forecasts and success of out turns to policy decisions.

5.The Bank should reconsider its attitude to Quantitative
tightening. If it is unimportant as an influence on inflation as it says and the
purpose is technical or tidying up it should stop selling bonds and let
maturities gradually reduce its balance sheet. It should consider whether its
bond sales do depress markets in ways which can disrupt them, consider the
flow across to its tasks in maintaining banking sector stability and ask
whether too many bond sales might make a recession more likely. Selling bonds at huge losses and sending the bills to the taxpayer is encouraging recession and preventing a growth policy.

68 Comments

  1. Mark B
    April 8, 2024

    Good morning.

    When it comes to items 1-4, what I think you are saying, Sir John is that the BoE should be promoting ‘basic’ business practices.

    . . . there is too much groupthink on the MPC.

    This statement can be applied throughout government and the world at large. eg Climate Change.

    One way to mitigate the effects of groupthink is to abolish the MPC and seek confidential advice from a large range of anonymous sources, and publish the results for general scrutiny. That way, over time, those that are good get favoured. All remain unknown, so get to keep their reputation. No one likes to be wrong, unless you are the OBR.

    Item 5 is the down to the banks role of control inflation. Something the government has had a hand in. I do not blame the BoE as the government sets the rules by which it operates. So if you do not like it, change it or be quiet.

    1. Lifelogic
      April 8, 2024

      On climate we need a red team of scientist to refute the lunacy pushed by the government “experts” and the BBC types. Just as we needed them on lockdowns, the net harm vaccines (even coerced into the young, children and those who had already had Covid), the size of the state. tax levels, the BoE incompetence, criminal justice policies, the dire NHS structures
 these 13 years of Tory government has got nearly every single thing wrong.

      1. Lifelogic
        April 8, 2024

        Best to take a camp bed with you if you have to go to an NHS A&E it seems. And best to get a taxi rather than an ambulance that may not even come. This as more than 150,000 patients waited more than 24 hours in A&E for a bed last year, most of them elderly or frail. Hopeful they at least managed to find a comfy chair for them but prob. not even that. What wonderful public services we get in return for the highest taxes in 70+ years.

        1. Lifelogic
          April 8, 2024

          Oh and batteries for you ECG are required too it seems.

          1. Hope
            April 8, 2024

            JR, forgot the bit about ESG rot, this appears more important than the core role of many organisations including BoE. They are more transfixed with quotas than what they are there for. Yet again, what has the Tory govt. done

.SFA in 14 years. All those Carney targets that were changed extended or ignored. We even had the BoE politicised getting in on the fear campaign of leaving the EU!

            We read Boeing also appears to have put diversity rot above competence.

            Wragg is still unbelievably still in place! Is it because he is a homosexual, or helped to get rid of Johnson through the conflated Pincher scandal? Dowden and Hunt supporting his disgraceful conduct jeopardising the security of his colleagues for his own selfish weird conduct.

            Come on JR, is this a review with a pre determined outcome? A sham to give Bailey a clean bill of health to continue to wreck our economy?

          2. Lifelogic
            April 8, 2024

            @Hope +1

      2. a-tracy
        April 8, 2024

        Negative people say there has been no progress on half of Boris’ levelling-up targets, so there must have been progress on the other half.

        The 2010 Tories with the Lib Dems carried on with education up to 18 for free and funded that, they did the pupil premium they get no thanks for that (even though children in the worst performing areas improved by over a third with 90% of children now achieving the expected standard. Education standards have increased significantly, you wouldn’t know it.

        Housing England has been giving out grants left, right and centre, but nothing has been recorded or acknowledged. Its as though big affordable housing estates haven’t been popping up anywhere else but near me! They’ve been giving funds for shopping centres, no thanks, so why bother?

        They have forced all employers to push up pay differentials, workplace pensions came in with extra funding from the employer from 2012, keeping to the 2008 act even though we’d crashed shortly after this was announced, funded by employers to the benefit of 11 million people, no recognition.

        Funds provided for transport systems around the UK you’d think there was ÂŁ0 it’s never mentioned and local mayors take all the credit!

        I can’t be bothered to go on, because everyone seems to have just given up. So batten down the hatches.

        1. Hope
          April 8, 2024

          Blaire had the foresight to choose his inquisitors to find the right outcome, I presume the BoE and govt. to be doing the same. The only winner is Bernake (words omitted ed)

          We read how MoD spent over ÂŁ1 billion on consultants! There is no end in sight for how much the taxpayer can be fleeced by a reckless Tory govt.

          1. a-tracy
            April 8, 2024

            When Labour was last in government, did the MoD not spend any money on consultants? Is this just a Tory thing? Did it start under the coalition? I don’t know anything about using consultants in the public sector. With all the high-paid managers, I don’t know why they’d outsource the decision-making. Personally, I wouldn’t.

          2. Hope
            April 8, 2024

            JR,
            Point 3. Is this like the appointment to head of the post office and give her a title as well? When will your stupid party and Westminster learn. Thatcher was not a quota appointment!

            Take back control of BOE and accept responsibility. Get rid of ONS and OBR and
govern!

          3. Berkshire Alan
            April 8, 2024

            +1

    2. Ian Wraggg
      April 8, 2024

      If a business had the failure track record of the BoE and government in general the management would have been replaced long ago.
      Letting a business continue to borrow year on year until the second largest liability after the NHS is interest payments of ÂŁ110 billion.
      This has more than doubled under your supervision and no doubt Starmergeddon will double it again until no one will lend to them.
      Weimaraner Republic here we come.

  2. formula57
    April 8, 2024

    Will not Mr. Bernanke be sound (per Sir Humphrey Appleby’s definition) so he might well recognize the dilemma between doing the job of central banking properly (requiring adoption of your proposals) and doing it to reassure the easily frightened by providing for timid actions explained by reference to being what everyone thinks is best. I know which approach will maximize participants’ pensions and honours preferment, alas.

    1. Mitchel
      April 8, 2024

      Perhaps the latest World Bank statistics for GDP on a ppp basis indicate who is doing it right and who is not.Figures in intl$bn,2023 estimate and 2024 projection:

      1 China 33,694……35,244
      2 USA 23,666…..24,163
      3 India 16,873…..17,970
      4 Japan 5,820…….5,873
      5 Russia 5,733…….5,883

      Russia,having overtaken Germany last year is projected to surpass Japan this year.France and UK out of the top 10.

      Reply China and India both have 1.4 bn people so per capita looks very different

      1. Michael McGrath
        April 8, 2024

        rely to reply
        I don’t understand your reply…the enormous size of the Chinese and Indian populations will certainly affect the total GDP but GDP per person is just that…total GDP divided by the number of people. So the comparison is valid

        Reply The figures supplied were for total GDP, not per capita

      2. Hope
        April 8, 2024

        Reply to reply,
        JR,
        Yes, but your party is doing its level best to destroy jobs and manufacturing here transferring them to China and India! Please give us a cogent reason why your stupid party is determined to wreck our economy, jobs, manufacturing, etc passing them to our enemies while giving both overseas aid and agreeing to have millions of them to live here? Worse allowing them to attend our best universities, instead of our own, to steal ideas to take back to China and India while allowing their dross to come and live here?

        What is in the Paris Agreement for the UK? What is in the WHO for the UK? Why is your party still determined to act as a vassal state to EU? Acring in lock step to prevent divergence? Rees-Mogg was criticising Sunak in the press last week about it, but still supporting him!

  3. Lifelogic
    April 8, 2024

    Groupthink is an appalling problem. The “Group” so often get thing totally wrong as we have seen on QE, the net harm lockdowns, net harm Covid Vaccines (even for groups that clearly never even needed them), HS2, the size of the state, tax levels, EV cars, heatpumps, not fracking, Cameron’s Libya bombing, Blair’s counterproductive wars, the botched devolution


    1. Lifelogic
      April 8, 2024

      Migration levels, Net Zero, the climate change act, healthcare systems


      1. Berkshire Alan
        April 8, 2024

        I see Australia and New Zealand are looking to reduce immigration further with more severe restrictions on Visa’s.
        Apparently too many low grade, low pay applicants attempting to use the present system which is proving a challenge to the economy

    2. Hat man
      April 8, 2024

      Along with groupthink goes voluntary self-censorship. People know that something is a bad idea, yet they cannot bring themselves to speak out against it. To take your Libya example, LL, only 13 MPs voted against Cameron’s military action in support of the insurgents. Some abstained, for one reason or another. Any MP who looked into the matter, even briefly, must have known that by supporting war in Libya they were helping to create mass migration from that country into Europe. Libya gave employment to hundreds of thousands of Africans whose jobs would disappear with the destruction of that country’s thriving peacetime economy. So clearly they would migrate to Europe, where it was known the Italians and the French would wave large numbers of them through, towards the Channel. I don’t think many British MPs actually wanted that, but they voted for a policy that would have that outcome, silencing misgivings some at least of them must have had. Likewise with lockdowns, likewise with money printing, and so on. In our public life, we need MPs and others who are not afraid to express disagreement and dissent. I don’t see many.

      1. David+L
        April 8, 2024

        On many issues it appears to me that the priority for many MPs (of all Parties) is their careers. The failure to question many unscientific interventions that were forced onto the public over the last few years is shameful.

        1. Lifelogic
          April 8, 2024

          What sort of “experts” would force new tech. & largely untested “vaccines” into young people and people who had already had Covid when they clearly had no need of them. Where are the investigations for criminal negligence at the MHRA etc.?

          Former Covid medical officer Van-Tam now works for Moderna I note. Andrew Bridge kicked out of the party for telling the truth. Sunak still deluded or lying that the vaccines were/are “unequivocally safe” despite the vast conclusive evidence available showing the complete reverse.

        2. Rod Evans
          April 8, 2024

          Too many MPs are simply lobby fodder members. They do not challenge or question anything. Their role is to vote as the whips tell them, yet enjoy the kudos of being a so called representative of the community that elected them to office. The problem for all of us, is the MPs once elected do not represent their constituents at all.
          They are not allowed to by the whips.

          1. Berkshire Alan
            April 8, 2024

            RE
            Unfortunately what you say in many cases is true, and that is why poor Law and Regulations are passed, and just nodded through.

      2. Lifelogic
        April 8, 2024

        +1

    3. Ian B
      April 8, 2024

      @LL – group think in politics appears to come from the failure of MP’s to serve those that empower and pay them. They will fall in with those that are directing their gang for fear of getting disenfranchised. There is a trend for some to think the likes of Lee Anderson defected to another grouping, not really, Rishi Sunak kicked him out of the Party. Was that him(Rishi) making an example of him(Lee) as a warning to others to toe the line?
      Sunak also appears to want to believe that voters have deserted him and will return if he frightens them about the alternatives, when it is he and his Government that has lurched so far into the teachings of Klaus Schwab, they don’t even recognize it is they that have deserted the UK center-ground – the Conservatives.

  4. David Andrews
    April 8, 2024

    Recruiting people with alternative views will not help if the Governor does not listen to them or turns out to be indecisive. We seem to live in a world where those in charge appear to believe the forecasts presented to them. See Chancellors quoting the OBR to justify higher taxes. The fact is they are no better than unreliable guesses driven by the models used – a feature also observed in unreliable global temperature forecasts. The reality is no one knows much more than, at best, the likely direction of travel and that is easily upset by unforeseen events.

    1. Bloke
      April 8, 2024

      The present bunch of Bank of England bozos could not forecast what the future holds even if they had a Flux Capacitor.

  5. DOM
    April 8, 2024

    Do we need a central bank?

    1. Ian B
      April 8, 2024

      @DOM – No, never did particularly in this style. It was a Political Construct so a Government, the Chancellor, and the Treasury could suggest failures were not theirs – conveniently forgetting as they hold the purse strings, steal from the taxpayer to bailout incompetence. So Government remains the management.

  6. Rod Evans
    April 8, 2024

    The most troubling feature of SJR’s piece, is it suggests the BoE does not understand banking or its role in it….
    I particularly like the idea the bank needs to recruit more people with alternative ideas about economics.
    It brings to mind the old banking truth, “If you placed all the economists in a line together they would never reach a conclusion.”

    1. Lifelogic
      April 8, 2024

      The economists governments tend to recruit and listen to tell them what they want to hear. Namely you need ever more taxes, ever more regulation, ever more money printing and ever more government. That way they get reappointed.

      1. Sharon
        April 8, 2024

        @LL Some months ago, Liam Halligan (GB News/Telegraph) said that there was a meeting of economists at the Bank of England.,,, six were BofE officials, three were independent economists. Two different views, so they went with the BofE officials’ view. Liam was palpably fuming underneath because he thought they’d gone with the wrong solution! He was right! Nothing has improved!

    2. Bloke
      April 8, 2024

      Ultimately, recruiting more people to gain the collective intelligence of crowds leads to a Bank Rate Referendum.
      This interesting article from the Guardian in 2008 states: “the Bank is still finding it hard to come up with the right answers”. The Heath Robinson style Phillips machine using water channelled via Perspex had more credible foundation than the Bailey of the building in Threadneedle Street has even today.
      https://www.theguardian.com/business/2008/may/08/bankofenglandgovernor.economics

    3. Berkshire Alan
      April 8, 2024

      Rod
      “if you……………………”
      Same could be said for Scientists, hence the idea that “Climate change is settled” is a complete nonsense.

    4. Lynn Atkinson
      April 8, 2024

      But we have reality to measure their predictions against. Some will be right, some will be wrong. Let’s listen to the people who were right. If you shut them down then you can say ‘nobody predicted 
.’ when in fact many did.
      Same thing has happened in the medical fraternity re Covid.
      Same thing is happening in geo-politics re ‘we must destroy Russia (before it destroys us)’.

      I’m sick of these useless people covering their uselessness by closing down and shutting out the rational. Demonising them and attacking and terrifying the population with lies, incompetence and debauchery.

  7. Narrow Shoulders
    April 8, 2024

    Diversity of thought, not going to happen is it?

  8. Nigl
    April 8, 2024

    Turkeys voting for Christmas. No chance

  9. Bryan Harris
    April 8, 2024

    Most rational people would agree with all of that.

    When are the parliamentary scrutiny committees going to impose those items listed? Or do they agree with how the Bank has been operating?

    When will Parliamentary MPs come out of their collective cupboards and actually at least, start to run the country, not stand aside as it falls apart!

  10. Donna
    April 8, 2024

    I very much doubt that Bernanke was brought in to deliver a review which will, in any way, rock the complacent, group-thinking, B of E boat.

    1. Hope
      April 8, 2024

      Correct. A predicted outcome, a sham to absolve Bailey and govt before the reins taken away. It is breathtaking the amount of debt and debt interest the UK pays.

      We were promised a balanced structural deficit by 2015, no more funny money, low taxes. Compare to the wasters in the Labour Party from 1997-2010 and it is shocking the Tory party is even worse!! After all they said about Brown to be elected.

    2. R.Grange
      April 8, 2024

      Absolutely, Donna. Bring in an international banker to inquire into how the economy is being steered by international bankers… and what outcome do we get, I wonder?

  11. Original Richard
    April 8, 2024

    “
.there is too much groupthink on the MPC
..they have no idea what inflation is going to be
..That is why I have set out the need to completely change their forecasting models
..and to recruit different people to provide diversity of thought

huge losses and sending the bills to the taxpayer is encouraging recession and preventing a growth policy.

    This is precisely analogous to the Marxist driven nonsense of CAGW and Net Zero. The differences are that there is no government funded organisation taking the government to court for failing to implement the unelected budgets from the OBR and the Treasury civil servants and the clear scientific evidence that there is no climate crisis.

    It is not necessary to be a climate scientist to see the data from past paleontological records for temperature and CO2, the CO2 following temperature data in the Antarctic Vostok ice cores, the Happer & Wijngaarden results, the clearly higher temperatures in the Roman and Medieval warm periods and even the IPCC’s own WG1 Chapter 12 Table 12 where they report that they can find no signal of climate change beyond natural variability other than some slight warming leading to some melting of ice and snow.

    The policies of the BoE/Treasury and the CCC/DESNZ are driven by the same fifth column Bolshevicks in Parliament and the Civil Service.

    1. Original Richard
      April 8, 2024

      PS :

      There is an additional difference between economics and the science of climate and that is that no organisation has yet said they own the economics in the same way the UN says it owns the science of climate and discussions on economics may still take place on the state broadcaster, the BBC, whilst for climate the BBC considers the science is settled and consequently no further discussion is allowed.

      However, this may all change after the next GE as the likely new Chancellor of the uniparty said at her Mais lecture 2024 :

      “So we will strengthen the Office for Budget Responsibility, with a new fiscal lock, guaranteeing in law that any government making significant and permanent tax and spending changes will be subject to an independent forecast from the OBR. And we will not waver from strong fiscal rules.”

      So the unelected OBR will be the organisation running our economy just as the unelected CCC runs our economy destroying Net Zero Strategy and it is quite possible that the BBC will unilaterally decide that our economic policy is “settled” and consequently no further discussion Is allowed

  12. Peter Gardner
    April 8, 2024

    Based on my experience in computer system security working with GCHQ as a client I would suggest Red Team Reviews. They are mandatory in GCHQ which goes further and employs hackers to break into computer systems being developed but that is obviously not an option for the bank. But red team reviews are quite common in good managment teams. There is nothing as salutory as facing a determined adversary to test your arguments. Why not mandate them for the bank?

  13. Ian B
    April 8, 2024

    Sir John

    Yes Ben Bernanke has the credential to make a difference, my reservation would be who asked him to get involved. We have a political aligned and motivated BoE, that are just too lazy to do their job instead they mirror, mimic, others who are dealing with different situations. So if Bailey has just asked Bernanke to get involved, it has the hallmarks of Bailey looking to scapegoat his own personal inabilities of being fit for purpose. Bailey is a Walter Mitty character, remember his pronouncements at the FCA on the dangers of LDI funds, then did nothing. Then note the political shenanigans when the LDI situation was about to blow up in his face when Truss turned up.

    The conclusion would be, expect a ‘white wash’ and nothing will change anywhere all the while we have this Socialist Government in power and fighting the very structure of the UK.

    The BoE situation is a reflection of the interest in the UK we get from our 2 Chancellors, no interest, they are soon to leave the Country and dump their mess on others

  14. Ukretired123
    April 8, 2024

    Sir John please push these VIP s (very important points) on the Central Banks weakness track record to the highest levels possible non-stop until they acknowledge there is a Churchill reaction of “Action this day!”.
    Surely this must be a classic example for all future Economics students of “How not to run a Central Bank, based on my humble opinion as an Economics graduate, hence my long held respect for you as a true expert yet (too) modest.
    By coincidence Lord Saatchi echoes your view of the crucial “low taxes harvests greater yield” in a new article yesterday echoing this too.
    Thank you very much for your perseverance nevertheless Sir John.

    1. Ukretired123
      April 8, 2024

      I forgot to add that Lord Saatchi made the crucial point that the largest drain on Govt Expenditure was not the obvious NHS, MOD, Education but the invisible interest on Govt debt at 9.7% !

      1. Lynn Atkinson
        April 8, 2024

        Largely thanks to Johnson. Anyone who is a few days away from bust most of their lives should never be put in charge of the public purse.

  15. Bert+Young
    April 8, 2024

    All good points Sir John ; do you think they will be listened to ?. In my opinion everything comes back to the quality of the staff at the BoE and the ability of government supervision ; much change needs to happen and happen soon .

  16. Keith from Leeds
    April 8, 2024

    All very good, and no doubt if the BOE adopted your proposals, it would do a better job.
    But the blunt truth is if you don’t sack people for failure, then they will keep on failing. To change the attitude and approach of the BOE, Andrew Bailey must be sacked for gross misconduct. He was warned that inflation was becoming a problem, but he knew better, so he ignored the advice.
    We have a failing and weak PM, Chancellor and BOE Governor; all need sacking, but who can you replace them with? Where is the Conservative MP who actually has and believes in Conservative values?
    While on the subject, the OBR needs closing down as well.

    1. Ian B
      April 8, 2024

      @Keith from Leeds +1 – The ‘Conservative Party’ at large has given up and is aiding and abetting the destruction of the party from within. The most inexperienced ‘new’ MP that, that has never been in this Cabinet yet happens to be a Conservative, would win the next election hands down. But no, the Conservative Campaign HQ has made the election about supporting the incumbents(how many bad choices do the get to make? then again they themselves are standing down at the GE – job done for them), to hell in wheelbarrow for all the good Conservative MP’s they must be sacrificed on the personal ego of the Socialist WEF cabal that has found itself by deceit at the helm of this once great party

    2. Know-Dice
      April 8, 2024

      Include the working from home ONS as well

  17. Roy Grainger
    April 8, 2024

    Ben Bernanke was appointed by the BoE themselves to do this review so one assumes they don’t expect to be much challenged or surprised by his conclusions. They were hardly likely to appoint someone who started from a position of disagreement with their overall policies. And once again the supine Conservatives are just going along with it, the same Conservatives who appointed the current ineffective BoE Governor and the previous one who it turns out was a non-dom Labour supporter.

    1. Mark
      April 8, 2024

      Indeed. As Sir Humphrey was fond of saying “Never commission an enquiry unless you know the result.”

      1. Mickey Taking
        April 8, 2024

        or can dictate it!

    2. Ian B
      April 8, 2024

      @Roy Grainger +1

      The UK – no transparency, no accountability, no responsibility. But if you have a friend in the ‘Blob’ or this particular version of a Conservative Government you get to rise to the top.

  18. Robert Pay
    April 8, 2024

    I would not trust a Globalist like Bernanke to undertake this review. His agenda wil not coincide with our national interests. I assume that is why he was asked…by whom? I assume a civil servant made the recommendation.

  19. paul
    April 8, 2024

    Setting interest rate policy is easy, you follow the bond market that what the bond market is for to set interest rates.

    When market is inverted you just uninvert the market in other words you follow the market, when you hear all these experts on monetray policy the people think they know something, i can a sure you they know nothing, if they knew anything they would not invert the bond market.
    One thing is for sure there will be trouble in the markets at some point because of there actions in monetray policy along with bail-outs and bail-ins and setting interest rates at zero which will make the rich richer and poor poorer. QE is a policy is to make more bank reserve to lend to the housing market and share markets around the world, it has nothing to do with printing money and nothing with inflation, it only inflats the housing market and share markets as bank lend for that.
    I don’t think there is any point in saying any more, i think you get the picture.

    Reply And bond markets follow the managed rates set by Central Banks!

  20. Derek
    April 8, 2024

    As is the norm with SJ, good points that should be also directed at the OBR and the Treasury. They appear to be all in it together.
    The points and initiatives will, of course, be ignored and “not relevant” to the existing regimes, for that is the problem we, the electorate, have with today’s officialdom.
    They still maintain and insist upon last century thoughts and thinking, which have proven less than adequate to handle our 21st century problems.
    The solution can only be to have a clean sweep of these outmoded and blinkered, dedicated followers of Sir Humphrey and replace them all with newbies and oldies with knowledge and experience of making all ‘things’ work. Most of all, our economy, which when failing, render all other ‘things’ severely handicapped or disabled. With absolutely no disrespect to any person intended. We, as a Nation, desperately need change. Big change.

  21. Ian B
    April 8, 2024

    Dame Sharon White has previously made it clear that she wanted a position at the BoE, to that end she has no made herself available.

  22. Donna
    April 8, 2024

    Off topic:

    And another one’s gone
    Another one’s gone
    Another one bites the dust

    “Four people narrowly escaped injury after an e-bike exploded at a London train station.”

  23. paul
    April 8, 2024

    No, they do not follow the Central Bank managed rates, Central Banks only control short yields up to the 2, year yields, if they did then the ten, year bond yield would be more than 2 bond yield which they are not, that is the bond market telling you to lower your 2, year bond yield and one month rate and should be below the ten, year bond yield before the markets drop and you have another crisis. Mind you they are always in a crisis. Another person who thinks they know better than the bond markets but they know nothing.

    As for the idea of diversity in monetray policy that would be hard to do when all learn the same policy at uni so all come up with the same answers to the problem, you would have to change the way uni teaches students and including yourself.
    I can see why you row back on bond market control of rates, it would mean, no more paid jobs for setting policy, and the rich would find it harder to triple or four times their money in a short space of time. ultimately it the plebs who pay the price and have come up with the money and the sacrifice, while the elite carry on as if nothing has happened including yourself.

    Reply The whole point of QE and QT is to manipulate longer yields! Also short rate raising to control an inflation starts by also directly raising longer rates. When short rates are high and inflation coming down then you can get a downward sloping yield curve in anticipation of falling short rates.

  24. Mark
    April 8, 2024

    I hope it is legitimate to comment Mr Carney’s personnel purge at the BoE. It is surely relevant and material to the failures you point to.

  25. glen cullen
    April 8, 2024

    You’ve only got 3 weeks; after the May elections all will be lost ….3 weeks to convey your tory policies

  26. Chris S
    April 9, 2024

    Appointing another central banker to carry out the review guarantees what the conclusion will be :

    “Bailey did all the right things with the information then at hand but circumstances changed in a way that could not be predicted.”

  27. Sakara Gold
    April 9, 2024

    Helicopter Ben made his bones with his famous study of the 1929 Great Stockmarket Crash and the resulting Great Depression. Bernake concluded that the depression was caused by the lack of credit availability as banks and other lenders foreclosed on industrial, farm and domestic mortgages in good standing throughout the 1930’s

    In November 2002 Bernanke, then Federal Reserve Board governor and later Chairman suggested that helicopter money – dropping newly printed fiat money onto destitute cities and states – could always be used to prevent deflation.

    He is on record as stating that he doesnt understand gold, or its place in the global monetary system

  28. APL
    April 11, 2024

    “Bernanke needs to be radical in his review of the Bank of England”

    Is this the same Ben Bernanke that ruined the Federal reserve balance sheet after the 2008 crash?

    Because if it is, you guys are absolutely insane consulting him on anything at all.

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