What difference to net zero and the economy would a Trump or Biden second term make?

As readers know I do not express views about who should win elections in foreign countries, nor usually comment on which potential government or President would be best.

It now looks very likely that Mr Trump will gain the Republican nomination and Mr Biden the democrat at the conventions in the summer. . Polls for the Presidential election itself show both Mr Biden and Mr Trump as relatively unpopular with the wider electorate. They also quite often show Mr Trump a little ahead.

It is therefore a good time to ask what would a second term Biden Presidency look like and how would it contrast with a second term Trump Presidency?

With the current President we should  expect him to continue with his economic policy based on the Inflation Reduction Act subsidies and the CHIPs Act. He will want to attract more semiconductor and digital investment to the US, and offer tax breaks and subsidies for green growth. He will be happy to see higher taxes on the very rich and on big business. He supports minimum tax levels globally on these groups.

Mr Trump will wish to renew his big tax cuts where some are due to retire, and will also wish to onshore more investment. He will renounce the Paris Climate Agreements and will promote more cheap oil and gas from domestic sources. He will cut green subsidies and regulations. This will make a big difference to the world policy of decarbonisation. With China and India continuing to boost fossil fuel output and use, joined by the USA, Europe will be lonely with its anti oil and gas policies.

The UK and Europe need to ask themselves what are they going to do about the drive to use more fossil fuel in India , China and many emerging market economies? It makes no sense to close our industrial plants only to import from high CO 2 producing countries. It seems very unlikely  the world can hit its targets for 2030 for CO 2, as fossil fuel use continues to increase. Even under Biden the US has added to her output of cheap oil and gas.  If the USA joins in with more fossil fuel it makes it even less likely targets will be hit. When are the international target setters going to confront the truth about India, China and other large emitters? Are they happy with President Biden adding to US oil and gas output? What would they do if Mr Trump becomes President and renounces the plans. ?

 

87 Comments

  1. Mark B
    April 24, 2024

    Good morning.

    It is therefore a good time to ask what would a second term Biden Presidency look like . . .

    Whatever former President Obama wants it to look like 😉

    Seriously. Does anybody believe that an old man with serious mental health issues is running the show ?

    The UK and Europe need to ask themselves what are they going to do about the drive to use more fossil fuel in India , China . . .

    They will just double down on CO2 emissions. The plan is to de-industrialise the West. Send all industries to places where regulations, labour and land costs are lowest, and push up the share price and value of their* assets.

    Even under Biden the US has added to her output of cheap oil and gas.

    It is an election year, Sir John. Once the Democrats are back in office they will finish off what they started.

    *They being the large Corporate Banks.

    1. Peter
      April 24, 2024

      ‘ The UK and Europe need to ask themselves what are they going to do about the drive to use more fossil fuel in India , China and many emerging market economies?’

      The UK will do whatever it is told to do. Changes in the USA will not necessarily lead to a different approach in this country.

      Governments are not acting in what would be our national interests. Violent protests and revolts within Britain may mean a change of tack if they occur and are sufficiently troublesome. Otherwise it will be the same old same old.

      Violent resistance has probably been planned for anyway. Governments will keep pushing and see how much they can get away with.

      There are few conviction politicians in this country nowadays.

      1. Lifelogic
        April 25, 2024

        “There are few conviction politicians in this country nowadays.”

        Plus the one with “convictions” usually have totally the wrong “convictions”. Usually a desire to over tax, endlessly regulate and interfere, push net zero rip off unreliable energy, fiddle their expenses, mug motorists, thieve off landlords to buy votes, build HS2, coerce dangerous vaccines into people, block the roads or limit them to 20MPH, lock down the economy, go to pointless & counterproductive wars on lies…

    2. Wanderer
      April 24, 2024

      MB, you get to the crux of the matter with your “*”.

      Our kind host asks diplomatically: “When are the international target setters going to confront the truth…?”

      I wonder what his view is, on who they are? I ask in the sense of who is driving this, not which acronymed body declares the targets. The latter are just actors reading a script.

      I feel it’s time for us all to be more candid, in order to expose and confront the threat of corporatist authoritarianism.

    3. Ian wragg
      April 24, 2024

      Whatever happens in the USA, the EU slavishly followed by Starmergeddon will continue the ruinous net zero crusade. The first time one of the major German or French car manufacturers goes bust or gets taken over by the Chinese then the sparks will fly.
      Nothing short of a full scale mutiny by the peoples of Europe will halt this misguided juggernaut.
      It’s over too the voters
      I fear it won’t end well.

  2. Javelin
    April 24, 2024

    Biden is spending a Trillion dollars every day.

    Yet he can’t string two sentences together.

    This is simply hangers on syphoning money from the US tax payers for themselves.

    It looks like theft because it is theft.

    1. formula57
      April 24, 2024

      ?. The 2024 Federal budget shows outlays amounting to $6,517 billion (c. $17.85 billion per day).

    2. Lynn Atkinson
      April 24, 2024

      +1.

  3. formula57
    April 24, 2024

    A second term winner may well have to cope with material economic struggles (exacerbated by the trade wars each contemplate) and without allies controlling Congress luxury initiatives that hamper boosting business growth may perhaps flounder in the face of what seems to be generally an increasingly jaundiced attitude towards Net Zero initiatives.

    1. Peter Wood
      April 24, 2024

      Yes, political, existential threats are rising and that costs a lot more, and a lot sooner, than foolish climate possibilities. An invasion of eastern Europe, or Taiwan will be rather more urgent than something, maybe, happening a hundred years from now.
      How’s the budget deficit Sir J.? Are we still borrowing more and too much, then wasting it?

  4. Lifelogic
    April 24, 2024

    Trump is clearly far preferable. This as he is a climate realist, not totally senile and I am always rather impressed by his general modesty. Biden can surely only win by using underhand methods as seems to be the agenda with these legal and other actions

    The most important thing is for the World is to ditch the moronic war on the (net beneficial for life) CO2 plant, tree, seaweed and crop food. We live in a period of a dearth of CO2 in historical terms. Cheap reliable on demand energy is vital for the economy, living standards, defence, growth…

    1. Lifelogic
      April 24, 2024

      Iran is about to start a nuclear world war – and the West is determined to lose
      From 3pm: Allister Heath answers your comments – join the conversation
      ALLISTER HEATH a few days ago and Heath is usually right.

      Trump is preferable to Biden to avoid this disaster too.

      1. Hat man
        April 24, 2024

        While I agree Alistair Heath calls it right on the net zero madness, he’s way off beam on the Middle East. Iran doesn’t need to start a nuclear war in the region, even supposing it had the capacity to do so. Its recent successful missile strikes on Israeli military assets are a sufficient warning to Israel not to go further, which it will have to heed. Or else Israel has to launch a pre-emptive nuclear attack on Iran. No doubt it has contingency plans for that, but you won’t hear about that option from Alistair Heath. The optics wouldn’t look good.

        1. Lifelogic
          April 24, 2024

          Let us hope so.

        2. Mitchel
          April 24, 2024

          Correct.Iran is boiling the Israeli frog.The Israeli economy is shredded and people are leaving.

      2. hefner
        April 24, 2024

        If LL were ever to apply to the Telegraph columnists the university criteria he applies to other people, he might realise that these TCs are far from ‘la creme de la creme’ and are there simply to make their usual readers salivate (I was about to use another verb but …).
        (And Yes till recently I was subscribing to the Telegraph).

        1. Sam
          April 25, 2024

          By “salivate” hefner perhaps you might substitute simply the verb “enjoy”

    2. IanT
      April 24, 2024

      “and I am always rather impressed by his general modesty” – Excellent, made me smile 🙂
      Well, at least he didn’t start any wars and the Abraham Accords were a positive step forward. He also nailed the German stupidity with regard to Russian gas dependency and was honest about the underfunding of defence within NATO members. Very much ‘Marmite’ for American voters of course.

      How anyone could now vote for Biden is a puzzle. It’s an unfortunate truth that old age isn’t kind to some people. I do wonder who is doing all the heavy lifting, as I very much doubt it’s him.

    3. Lifelogic
      April 24, 2024

      So Sunak finds £75 billion just by reducing the number of Civil Servants to put into defence spending. Why did the Tories not fire these unneeded Civil Sevants 14 years back when (low tax at heart never in reality) Lord Cameron of Greensill, Libya became PM.

      Reply The Cameron govt did reduce the numbers of the civil service. It expanded over covid

    4. Your comment is awaiting moderation
      April 24, 2024

      “Trump is clearly far preferable. This as he is a climate realist, not totally senile and I am always rather impressed by his general modesty. Biden can surely only win by using underhand methods as seems to be the agenda with these legal and other actions

      The most important thing is for the World is to ditch the moronic war on the (net beneficial for life) CO2 plant, tree, seaweed and crop food. We live in a period of a dearth of CO2 in historical terms. Cheap reliable on demand energy is vital for the economy, living standards, defence, growth…”


      I agree with all that especially “Trump is clearly far preferable”

    5. Sharon
      April 24, 2024

      @LL

      +1 about ditching net zero. Why do farmers spray inside their greenhouses with CO2 if it’s so dangerous?? Answer – it’s vital for plant growth!

  5. David Andrews
    April 24, 2024

    It is possible the Democrats will make a late change, substituting someone else for Biden on “health” grounds if he looks he will be a big loser. Trump has to navigate the lawfare being waged against him, but he will use it to boost his campaign. The international target setters will be helpless v Trump. It is just the EU and UK, especially the UK, they are after. A compliant UK government will crumble and drive the UK even deeper towards third world status.

    1. Mickey Taking
      April 24, 2024

      Why worry about USA leaders, we have enough problems with ours!

      1. glen cullen
        April 24, 2024

        To smear our focus

      2. paul cuthbertson
        April 25, 2024

        MT – If the USA fails we are all SLAVES. Bear that in mind and you will not have to worry.
        You will do as you are told.

      3. Donna
        April 25, 2024

        We haven’t got any Leaders. Not in Parliament, anyway.

  6. James1
    April 24, 2024

    A population of over 300 million and it looks like the choice is going to come down to Trump or Biden. Perhaps a majority of the electorate would prefer neither and would not be massively upset if the pair of them were cast adrift on a boat.

    1. Lynn Atkinson
      April 24, 2024

      That’s not what the rallies show. If you are a democrat you need to accept the opinion and legal votes of the electorate in other countries as you do in your own!

      1. Mickey Taking
        April 24, 2024

        America the world leader in ‘rent a flag waving rally’. A show of patriotism, nothing to do with policies.

    2. IanT
      April 24, 2024

      And as an alternative to our under performing Conservative Party – we are going to get Starmer?

      What a great choice! 🙁

    3. Lifelogic
      April 24, 2024

      70 million here and with FPTP we will get Sunak green crap socialism or Starmer even worse (and even sooner) green crap socialism. Is that better?

  7. R.Grange
    April 24, 2024

    “The world” doesn’t have CO2 targets, Sir John. The UN does. We need to recognise that on climate as on so much else Britain is taking its orders from a globalist cabal in New York which sets policy. The policy is that industrialised countries have to reduce their CO2, but China and India don’t have to. Our compliance with this long-standing UN agenda has been managed by internationalist stooges such as Ed Miliband and Theresa May. Sadly, the British parliament has always nodded through whatever decarbonising measures they wanted. The public has been fed slogans by politicians and the media mob, and opinion polls said it agreed with them, but now we are starting to wake up to what implementing those slogans would mean to our standard of living. Sunak should stop the green subsidies, then we’ll get just the eco-friendly measures we’re prepared – and able – to pay for.

    1. glen cullen
      April 24, 2024

      Agree – Also Asia, Russia, Africa, Middle-East and South America don’t have targets ….only the woke west

    2. Peter Wood
      April 24, 2024

      Excellent post.
      Who in our country is on our side of this fight? The political establishment seems to be on the side of global suppression of the people.

    3. Sharon
      April 24, 2024

      Absolutely, R Grange – no concrete, no steel, no bricks, clay packed earth for building (yes that’s been suggested!) – it’s a joke! And the joke’s on us in the west!

      Oh, and no flying or shipping after, was it 2035….

  8. Rod Evans
    April 24, 2024

    Another comment for the moderators to hold onto here.
    The Net Zero movement will run out of lies to tell long before 2030. With that in mind it makes little difference to the future direction of travel who sits in the White House. I say that with one caveat, if the conflicts currently getting hot and possibly hotter around the world evolve into even bigger conflicts, then the American voters had better choose the candidate that places energy security above virtue signalling Net Zero flimflam.

  9. Old Albion
    April 24, 2024

    Trump or Biden. A megalomaniac or an obviously unwell old man. What a choice. Sometimes America gets what America deserves.

  10. Lynn Atkinson
    April 24, 2024

    The ‘leaders’ in Europe, Ursula, Greta, Annelina and Sunak/Starmer etc. will continue to wind down energy no matter what the rest of the world does.
    The first to industrialise and the first to deindustrialise.
    We are dealing with very stupid people.
    There are two points of paramount importance, which will come first – the point-of-no-return or the point-of-revolution-against-the-elitists?

    1. Mitchel
      April 24, 2024

      The Dutch Groningen gas field,once the largest in western Europe,was permanently closed by the Dutch government last week.

      Markus Krebber,Head of German energy co,RWE,said two weeks ago that Germany will not be able to recover from the energy crisis.Krebber called the decision to abandon nuclear and switch to significantly more expensive LNG(rather than pipeline gas)as the ‘dumbest mistake’.

      1. Mickey Taking
        April 25, 2024

        more WEF support?

    2. glen cullen
      April 24, 2024

      What insane government would plan to impoverish its own people ….Labour & Tory

  11. Roy Grainger
    April 24, 2024

    If Biden is reelected “the international target setters” will stay silent irrespective of what he does. If Trump is elected “the international target setters” will loudly disagree with everything he does and say he’s putting the world in danger.

  12. MPC
    April 24, 2024

    A Labour led government will simply carry on with its Net Zero mania. At a loose end over Easter I looked at the careers of current shadow Cabinet members. Of the 31 only 2 had any work experience in the commercial world I.e. profit making (excluding banking and the law) and, in both cases, that experience was very brief and long ago. It obviously didn’t suit them. If you’ve never run a business and only worked in the political, public or voluntary sectors you are disinterested in enabling low cost energy for the benefit of SMEs and others.
    Economic destruction is set to continue led by a self satisfied Ed Miliband and his cohorts.

    1. IanT
      April 24, 2024

      Very sad to see the passing of Frank Field, one of the last genuine Labour MPs.
      We now have a coterie of Left-Wing Lawyers and closet Marxists masquerading as ‘Labour’. They seem to have very little understanding (or any respect) for the working people of this country. Frank Field was the MP for Birkenhead for 40 years. I often used to stay in Birkenhead during that period and whilst my friends didn’t neccessarily vote for him, they still had a good deal of respect for him.

      How much better off we might we have been with Frank Field as Speaker, instead of John Bercow?

      1. glen cullen
        April 24, 2024

        Fullt agree

  13. Bryan Harris
    April 24, 2024

    If the USA joins in with more fossil fuel it makes it even less likely targets will be hit. When are the international target setters going to confront the truth about India, China and other large emitters?

    It will make no difference to the special interest groups and other green lobbyists.
    They would rather see the UK driven back to the dark ages than allow us to follow the sensible countries using fossil fuels.

    Even if we were the ‘cleanest’ of all countries, and close to zero carbon emissions, there would be no let up —- THAT should tell us something about what those pushing netzero down our throats are really aiming for – and it’s nothing to do with clean oceans.

    As for Trump, he is so much more able and rational than Biden, having him as president would only help the world situation.

  14. MFD
    April 24, 2024

    On a different subject! Your leader announced yesterday that he was putting the arms industry on a war footing! Has he forgotten he has destroyed the steel industry, you cannot make firearms from recycled scrap steel , that needs quality high carbon steel.
    Will our enemies sell us the materials they were given by stupid British governments? I think not.

    1. Mitchel
      April 24, 2024

      Just as well no state is looking to invade the UK,then.Why would they bother-a bankrupt pile of rock that can neither feed itself nor supply it’s own energy needs (and geostrategically is both on the wrong side of the world and the wrong side of history).It would be a total liability!

      Commenting on Attila’s 451 AD invasion of Gaul,rather than Rome itself (which had already been haphazardly sacked by the Visigoths in 410 AD-and would again be -more systematically-sacked by the Vandals in 455 AD),Professor Philip Matyszak in “The enemies of Rome from Hannibal to Attila” writes:

      “It was a sad reflection,that in military terms the country was worth neither invading nor defending, of how far Italy had fallen.”

      1. Mickey Taking
        April 25, 2024

        A state does not need to invade us, destruction of ability to resist invasion elsewhere is the plan.

    2. formula57
      April 24, 2024

      @ MFD – +1

      Who knows what our enemies will do but those at present in the E.U. seem correct if they assume the U.K. will be sacrificing itself to pull their chestnuts out of the fire.

      Emboldened perhaps by Alan Duncan’s giving of still undisclosed committments during the quisling-like May government, Sunak and Shapps seem intent to harm the U.K further by entering into yet more. Get these people out of power now: Starmer at least will be wary of earning a reputation like that of Blair.

    3. Lifelogic
      April 24, 2024

      +1 Cheap reliable on demand energy os vital for defence yet the government and banks are preventing investment in this.

  15. Mike Wilson
    April 24, 2024

    What difference will Trump or Biden make? None! The problem is that the global (human) population has tripled in the last 75 years.

    1. Mickey Taking
      April 24, 2024

      But Iran are moving towards lowering that population rather dramatically.

    2. Rod Evans
      April 24, 2024

      Over the next 75 years the world’s population will halve. The demographics are not wrong. By 2021, the biggest problem the people on Earth will face is economic collapse due to lack of population, and population decline.

      1. glen cullen
        April 25, 2024

        But the world ‘didn’t’ collapse when its population a century ago was half its current size

      2. Mickey Taking
        April 25, 2024

        The reduction in total population needs to be in the areas of inability to provide a decent standard of living.

  16. James
    April 24, 2024

    Dear John.

    Net zero is obviously a very dangerous scam and even more so than the disgusting Covid policy of the government.

    It is amazing that a Conservative government would go along with such a flawed concept that is redistributing wealth to China, unnecessarily increasing energy cost and will make the UK poorer in the long run.

    We should be focused on reducing pollution not worrying specifically about co2, an inert gas that is at historically low levels and vital to plant life.. We should also accept there are many benefits of warming including not least reducing deaths from cold and many of the claims previously made are not true including the fact that the world is getting greener not drying out.

  17. Ian B
    April 24, 2024

    Sir John
    OFT if you will permit – from the MsM,
    ‘Heathrow airport bosses have urged the Chancellor to rethink the “anti-growth” tourist tax to boost Britain’s economy after the winter recession.
    Europe’s largest airport called on Jeremy Hunt to reintroduce VAT-free shopping for tourists to inject fresh momentum into the economy.’
    Perspective, Heathrow is pushing the idea that it should import cheap tat from around the World, then escape the VAT on it, in essence it means the rest of the UK’s enterprise gets to fund tax dodging imports. That in no way ‘boosts Britain’s Economy’ as they infer. It is not anti-growth; it is not a tax on tourism.
    If, however, the proposal was that goods manufactured in the UK were to escape VAT, that then would promote UK enterprises, feed the economy and allow taxes elsewhere to feed in to the system.

    1. formula57
      April 24, 2024

      @ Ian B – Heathrow has luxury goods shops not tat (stocked with Rolex, Hermes etc.) and like all major air hubs attracts a voluminous footfall of rich people who are aware of that and somewhat surprisingly perhaps become frequent airport shoppers. Heathrow’s notions may rest upon the belief that if it is uncompetitive compared to airports elsewhere, the luxury sales will be easily lost to those others so resulting effectively in giving up the VAT anyway.

      1. Ian B
        April 24, 2024

        @formula57 – exactly all foreign imported goods not a UK manufacturer in sight, so there is no benefit to the UK economy by those goods getting a pass on a tax, those of us that pay tax have to make up for it’s loss when someone else gets a free pass. A Tax kickback on UK manufacted goods still has some value left as it contributes elsewhere in the UK. If you only travel to get tax subsidy does any community need you

  18. Dave Andrews
    April 24, 2024

    Well we shall see in a few months time.
    Right now there is the issue of the UK running down its industry in the march towards net zero, substituting for imports from countries who are non-believers in the climate religion.
    As if things weren’t bad enough with the government choosing high cost of living policies with excessive taxation and property costs.

  19. The Prangwizard
    April 24, 2024

    If only the rest of us could be so honourable and morally superior. The idea of being on one side or the other is disgraceful.

  20. glen cullen
    April 24, 2024

    In other news –
    Sad to hear today about the death of Lord Frank Fields (Ex-MP for Birkenhead) a real politician, a fighter for his people and patriot to our country and democracy

  21. glen cullen
    April 24, 2024

    I implore everyone to read the governments own documents ‘‘Emissions of air pollutants in the UK – Summary Feb 2024’’ ….and tell me why we need ‘net-zero’
    https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/emissions-of-air-pollutants/emissions-of-air-pollutants-in-the-uk-summary

    1. Mickey Taking
      April 25, 2024

      it will speed up the plan to make us a Chinese outpost.

  22. Ed M
    April 24, 2024

    Andrew Neil, who I think is easily the smartest right-wing commentator out there, describes GB News as being a place for hardcore nutters. I pretty much agree.
    I think we need to kick Reform and its adherents far out to touch – and focus on rebuilding the Tory Party. With the likes of John Redwood representing the respectable ‘right’ of the party and the likes of Ken Clarke representing the respectable ‘left’ of the party – and building on this. But first and foremost by trying to rebuild the UK by trying to restore basic, fundamental Conservative virtues (not just political but cultural in general) through working with the churches, media, and people in arts and education. For the essential problem with our country isn’t politics and can’t be resolved by politics or politicians – the essential problem is cultural and can only be resolved by politicians working with people across society to change the culture and restore basic Conservative cultural values.

  23. Michael Saxton
    April 24, 2024

    Sir John, I think it’s a sad reflection on US polictics that the American electorate are likely to be faced with the unedifying choice of electing either Trump or Biden? Biden’s Presidency has been a calamity. The chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, the abandonment of Bagram Airbase including billions of dollars of military equipment and more egregiously, exposing Afghan women and children to the vicious policies of the Taleban. Biden’s open border policy has been equally catastrophic, drug fuelled Inner City crime is at epidemic levels with Police Forces defunded and incapacitated. His Foreign policies are equally chaotic. He has pursued a NATO expansion policy sacrificing Ukrainians in a futile attempt to damage Russia which is clearly not working and he refused to negotiate with the Russian President in 2021. He even scuppered the negotiations in Turkey in 2022 when Zelensky signalled his agreement for Ukraine to remain a neutral country. As for Gaza this has been yet another tragedy with America supplying military equipment to Israel thus enabling the death and destruction of thousands of Palestinians. Biden has failed to tackle the root cause of the Palestinian conflict. Biden’s cognitive decline is also a serious issue. As for Trump his brash bombastic style is somewhat offensive however his track record as President was significantly better. He reduced illegal immigration, improved US energy supply and put the brakes on the insane net zero nonsense plus there were no costly overseas wars. Nevertheless, the choice remains unedifying. How can America have got themselves into this dreadful mess?

  24. Ian B
    April 24, 2024

    With an Election imminent
    ‘The Prime Minister unveiled £75 billion in new funding that will take the defence budget to 2.5 per cent of national wealth – or £87 billion a year – by the start of 2030.’ ? 2030!, Another Conservative election promise, vote me and I will get ‘Brexit’. Vote me and the election after this coming one, 6 years’ time I will promise to spend money to keep you safe.
    So, it is not funding that has to be found for 6 years, mean-while our armed forces suffer purgatory, are under paid, have housing conditions worse the criminal invaders get. The Rishis Sunak version of keeping the UK safe – just talk about it and do nothing.
    We have had 14 years of sound-bite non action, and this non-Conservative Government wishes to promise us more of the same.

    1. Ian B
      April 24, 2024

      The Prime Minister has announced that Britain will ramp up defence spending to £87 billion a year by the start of the 2030s, which will amount to 2.5pc of total GDP.
      Mr Shapps He said the ‘proposal’ showed that “defence of the realm is the absolute number one priority” and that it “comes before everything else”.
      UK is set to spend slightly more than 2.3pc this year(2024) after aid to Ukraine was increased. Note money to the Ukraine not to the UK allows the PM to say he is increasing defence expenditure.
      Mr Sunak said on Tuesday that his 2030 pledge would be a “turning point in European security” – So for the UK to have a government that will start defending the UK and its people you have to give Sunak another 2 terms, or another 6 years. Every one must keep their fingers crossed that nothing happens in between. We have a man power shortage TODAY, what will it be like in 6 years’ time as the PM and the Conservative Government keep running our armed forces into the ground. The Army had 103K men when the Conservatives came to power now it is just 77K, in the meantime the MOD civil service numbers have increased, now there are 60K people. 2030?

      1. glen cullen
        April 24, 2024

        What in real terms he said – we’re going to spend an extra £20billion on buying USA military hardware without increasing the size of our army; funded by cuts to MoD and increased taxes

  25. Ian B
    April 24, 2024

    “With the current President we should expect him to continue with his economic policy based on the Inflation Reduction Act subsidies and the CHIPs Act.” US Taxpayer funding and subsidies for US based enterprise. It’s based on circulating the money around the system – goes around, comes around.
    Rishi Sunak, Jeremy Hunt with their Conservative Government is based on rip off the taxpayer ensure all money leaves the Country with a good chunk to subsidies foreign nationalised industries. The money leaves, it doesn’t contribute or get recirculated – weird economics!

  26. Ukretired123
    April 24, 2024

    Very sad coincidence of the excellent Hon. MP Frank Field passed away on St George’s Day after battling cancer for many years aged 81.
    He was a true gentleman, very modest yet packed a punch in the same mould as our conviction kind host.
    He believed in Brexit and stood up to Jeremy Corbin and his anti-Semitism. He was appointed by Blair to as Reform Minister but his intelligent recommendations for Welfare Reforms -that very hot, not potato – were quietly dropped by New Labour. How sad that they didn’t grasp the nettle to save the country. RIP Frank Field MP.

    1. Mickey Taking
      April 25, 2024

      Yes, RIP a real socialist not a career politician.

  27. Ian B
    April 24, 2024

    “It makes no sense to close our industrial plants only to import from high CO 2 producing countries.”
    But it does feed the policies of Rishi Sunak, Jeremy Hunt with their Conservative Government everything is based on ripping off the taxpayer and ensuring all money leaves the Country.
    The World is assured of its NetZero targets if the UK ‘alone’ exports all its industry, productions and survival capabilities. It has been demonstrated by these incumbents that it is this Conservative Governments policy to destruct not build, why else have they had this creed put onto the UK Statute to ensure poverty and purgatory while the World steams ahead at the UK taxpayer’s expense. 95% plus of the World are not punishing their people, their Governments are working for their people and their Countries.

    1. Ian B
      April 24, 2024

      2024
      A top air force commander has blasted Britain’s woeful military spending record and warned the RAF would run out of air-to-air missiles in a matter of days if it was dragged into a full-scale war.

      Air Marshal Edward Stringer, the UK’s former Director General of Joint Force Deployment, warned the nation’s military was ‘stretched too thinly’.

      In 2030 if we give the PM 2 more terms and the Conservative Government 6 more years in power they ‘may’ do something. Just as they said they would give us ‘Brexit’

  28. Original Richard
    April 24, 2024

    “It makes no sense to close our industrial plants only to import from high CO 2 producing countries.”

    It makes perfect sense if the aim is destroy the West’s economies and make the West totally reliant on China.

    There is no CAGW as evidenced by the climate activists having no issue with China’s CO2 emissions and delaying as much as possible the uptake of nuclear power, the only reliable, affordable low CO2 emitting power that exists.

    The same EDF EPR nuclear technology as Hinkley Point C, but without our ONR and Cameron/Osborne/Davey organising cripplingly expensive Chinese finance, is now providing reliable energy to the Finnish grid at £50/MWhr. This compares to the £100/MWhr for intermittent fixed offshore wind and £242/MWhr for intermittent floating offshore wind that we will be paying at the next renewables auction, AR6. The government delayed the ordering of reliable RR SMRs to 2029 and beyond by opening up SMRs to a worldwide competition instead. At an ES&NZ Select Committee evidence session last year RR quoted £50-£70/MWhr depending upon the finance type (RAB or CfD).

  29. Original Richard
    April 24, 2024

    The election of green (aka red) Biden will bring economic chaos and a deliberate weakening of the US economy (and ours as a consequence) and the election of Trump will bring chaos in all other matters as the “swamp” works night and day to end his presidency.

  30. Bert+Young
    April 24, 2024

    It is a bad thing for the world that the present options for President are Trump and Biden ; Biden hates the UK and Trump is a despicable individual . The US influence in enormous and their population produces many individuals of outstanding capability , so why is it that their political leadership choices are so inadequate ?. A political career in Politics is now a very unatractive feature for most individuals everywhere so one should not be surprised at how things are .

    1. paul cuthbertson
      April 24, 2024

      GC – Rwanda is a smoke screen. Ask yourself, WHY Rwanda??????
      Beware of the Trojan Horse as no one is leaving.

      1. glen cullen
        April 25, 2024

        Agree

  31. Derek
    April 24, 2024

    Regardless of the green credentials and ambitions, I’d feel more secure in my country if Donald Trump was POTUS again. It’s only since the new administration took over that numerous indecisions and failures to act. have prompted dangerous reactions from those who wish us no good.

  32. glen cullen
    April 24, 2024

    Both Trump & Biden will allow fracking shale gas ….while Sunak will continue to ban shale gas extraction

    1. Derek
      April 25, 2024

      And Steamer, et al?

  33. paul cuthbertson
    April 24, 2024

    Donald J Trump will win in a landslide however the US Deep State and Globalists throughout out the world will do everything within their power to stop him. Biden is an installed Deep State puppet. DJT is a business man not a politician so the ecoomies throughout the world will flourish.
    Net Zero and the Green New scam will be cast aside as COMMON SENSE returns.
    Remember people if the USA fails WE ARE ALL SLAVES however Nothing can stop what is coming NOTHING and the ENORMITY of what is coming will shock the world. Bring it on. PANIC everywhere.

  34. Frances
    April 28, 2024

    Well I guess China , India, and the USA wont care at all about all the places which will lose land mass because ocean levels are rising. The map of England shows losing large parts of the southeast by 2050.

  35. Reet
    May 2, 2024

    I just lost a long response to your questions above, Sir John, as the internet went down. It was probably just as well. So my simple reply is:-

    Under President Joe Biden nothing will change and the people will be more impoverished by the march to Net Zero, and the continuation of current financial policies, whilst all those that rule them from behind the scenes will gain more power and riches. Meanwhile more crops will fail, but there will be food. Of sorts. However it may all be irrelevant as it’s even possible there may be wwiii.

    Based on President Donald Trump’s first tenure i would think he’d halt any moves to Net Zero and the economy would flourish once again; as it did before. Food production would improve and he would start no wars and may even succeed in bringing peace to our world.

    I know you didn’t ask about food or world peace but felt these were relevant from my view of the two candidates.
    I pray for the right outcome for our world.

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