My advice over the last 18 months to the PM and his advisers was to go for a late November election. I argued the government could over 2024 deliver much lower legal migration, benefit from the likely  big fall in inflation, see interest rates come down a bit and be on a falling trend, deliver some economic  growth, get more accurate NHS waiting list numbers and show decent falls in waits. Showing government could deliver all these things would strengthen the case for re election on a platform of more growth, lower tax rates, lower migration and better public services to come, building on the 2024 achievements.
The government did agree to change migration policy, putting in changes to cut numbers this January. I urged them to publish at least monthly figures showing the falls, and aim to get nine months published by an election. Instead we have seen one 3 month number showing falls. The government rightly wants to get numbers down from here.
Inflation did fall as expected and is almost back to target. It should fall further by year end.
Going early meant no interest rate cuts. There could well be two or three later this year after the election.
The government did get in 2 budgets with some tax cuts. It would have been good to have had 3 and to establish more growth for longer to underpin more tax cuts to come. The small VAT threshold increase could have been bigger. Getting rid of IR 35 would have boosted self employment more than the NI cut.
I was told  Ministers were working on all the double counting and misleading entries in the NHS waiting list numbers, but did not complete in time for an early election. Numbers nonetheless were coming down until last month and may well fall further later this year. People who say they need to see a Dr for a review in 6 months time say they are on a waiting list yet of course they do not need an appointment for 6 months. Some entries are double counted.Some no longer need treatment. Many are awaiting first diagnosis, not treatment.
The economy has grown this year though not every month. It will take the lower inflation and lower interest rates to come to boost it, and would benefit from further pro jobs and business tax cuts.
June 16, 2024
âfurther pro jobs and business tax cutsâ overall taxes are still rising.
âThe government rightly wants to get numbers down from hereâ well perhaps they do but have done nothing serious to achieve this.
I was amazed that Sunak went six months early but then he is know for totally idiot decisions. It did at least mean Goveâs attacks on landlords were ditched and Sunak moronic smoking ban by DofB bill.
To lose massively to a dire Labour Party, led by dire Starmer will be quite an achievement. The country is crying out for sensible & real Conservative policies. Ditch net zero, cut the size of government, deregulate, control immigration, be honest about the vast vaccine harms, stop the wars on motorists, landlords, small business, the self employed, white van man, stop blocking the roadsâŠ
June 16, 2024
100% Agree LL. And then you ask yourself …..Why?
Following the odd decision to go early, we have then seen a string of further ‘odd’ errors or events, that put both Sunak and the Tory Party in even worse light! Is it all a coincidence?
I remember back to the Bunter Johnson v Worzelgummidge Corbyn contest, when Corbyn looked and presented to the nation that he didn’t really want to win; he is a natural complainer/whiner, not a ‘take responsibility’ leader.
If Sunak is so bright, then why is he making so many wrong decisions? Or are we not seeing his real objective….
June 16, 2024
You just canât cure âstupidâ. It is totally incurable!
I still canât get over seeing a Tory MP congratulating himself on what has happened to our High Streets.
I mean I almost thought it was economic/accidentalâŠ
But no! Specific planning has led to our tumbleweed towns.
And he was so proud of it that he thinks a âJust get on and do it â( without listening to anyone) approach is the correct one.
June 16, 2024
I see on Laura’s BBC show this morning that postal votes have already been arriving through peoples letter boxes.
Wokingham Council have informed a family member (they visited the office) that they will not actually be printed until the 24th June, then they have to be delivered to the Council, so they can distribute them to those who have registered. Given our family members go away on 22nd June the only way they can now vote it would appear would be by Proxy.
How many others are going to be potentially denied a vote due to their holiday arrangements I wonder ?
Yet another chaotic failure by either the Government or the Local Authority, especially when we all know the ;postal service is in chaos and delay.
June 16, 2024
Just had our 6th leaflet in 3 weeks put through our door by the LibDems, cannot but wonder who is paying for all of these leaflets.
Whilst I have to give them Credit for getting their Party support out and working, they are wasting their time with me.
In the meantime recently had one leaflet from the out of area Conservative candidate, which just parrots our Prime Ministers views and policies, so they will not be getting my vote either.
Nothing yet from Labour or anyone else.
June 16, 2024
Our neighbours are going away on Tuesday… they’re getting anxious that their postal vote hasn’t arrived!
Perhaps that was the reason for the election timing? Too many people on holiday, unable to vote?
June 16, 2024
Proxy is better.
June 16, 2024
Unfortunately JR I donât think you got the public mood. The public feels betrayed over Brexit. Betrayed over covid rules. Betrayed over high taxes yet no room for public spending cuts! No one standing up for our nation and people of our nation. Slimy Cameronâs return opened a wound especially now he is back insulting Tory voters!
Sunak and Hunt are not liked or trusted. Sunak back stabbed Johnson, no one likes that sort of disloyal behaviour irrespective of what Johnson might be. Sunak repeatedly fails to keep his word, no one likes that either.
June 16, 2024
Boris was waster but Sunak also back stabbed Truss, who was a proper conservative. Which is why she had to go I suppose.
June 16, 2024
Truss the. blamed for the economic crash that was constructed by Sunak as Chancellor and Andrew Baileyâs QE lunacy and general gross incompetence. Truss was just the last straw.
June 16, 2024
All the conspiracy theories are coming out in the comments.
Lifelogicâs assessment of Sunak as an idiot is perhaps the least far-fetched post so far. Sunak like May also seems to be the secretive type. Nobody else in government seemed to be aware of his election plan.
June 16, 2024
Sunak certainly isnât an idiot. My inclination having read umpteen repetitive unachievable politically, comments is to look at who wrote it.
June 16, 2024
Well perhaps not, but on many issues such as the Covid vaccines being âunequivocally safeâ logic surely dictates he is either appallingly ignorant, extremely stupid or a blatant liar. Also he either has zero political nouse or perhaps he is actually trying to bury his party one or the other surely.
June 17, 2024
Nigl
“Sunak is not an idiot”
Perhaps not but just look at some of the decisions and policies.
Eat Out
Believing Rwanda will stop the illegals.
Furlough not including the self employed.
Furlough loans to thousands of Companies, that did not require a previous registered tax return to HMRC.
Cutting our armed forces at a time of war in Europe.
Letting the Bank of England have a free hand
So many others.
June 16, 2024
@Peter – the Government at Cabinet level is a Collative all decision are agreed by all, if it wasn’t unanimous the dissenters would/could have ‘walked’
June 16, 2024
The cabinet have to greet with the PM. If they donât, they walk.
June 16, 2024
âAgreeâ – not âgreetâ.
June 16, 2024
Yesterday you presumed I was a woman, indicating you thought I was a man because I have a wife. Same sex marriages have been around a long time, Cameronâs greatest achievement! You then make a Conspiracy comment? Laughable. In any event I can self identify on a daily basis under Tories left wing woke agenda.
June 16, 2024
Hope,
I am none the wiser now
Are you a man or a woman?
Call me Dave was big on gay msrriage. In his book (public library, probably remaindered) he describes Putin laughing at him when he suggested gay marriage would be good for Russia. This was at a time when Russia was having lock up Pussy Riot protesters.
I suppose made the assumption you were a man on the likelihood of gay marriage folk posting on this site – or having right wing views.
Either way, I am not sure how it connects to conspiracy theories. Sorry if I have upset you.
June 16, 2024
Yes I followed the sane thought process as Peter. Cameron has no achievements.
June 16, 2024
Well after his cast iron lies, Greensill, Libya, failing to even prepare for a Brexit vote outcome then abandoning ship (promising he would not do) – a record of total disaster he has done very well indeed to now be Foreign Sec. he should be no where near any levers of power.
June 16, 2024
His aid did and bet on a sure thing! More honesty within the Tory Party!
June 16, 2024
His aid rather foolish too it seems. Surely you would not place a bet and certainly not place it yourself directly if you had any brain?
June 16, 2024
They WANT to lose, but they didn’t want to be obliterated. That’s where it’s gone badly wrong for them.
The WEF announced a little while ago that it needed to build back trust.
They’re clearing out the puppets who carried out the Covid Tyranny …. they will be long-gone when the creaking dam which is holding back the truth about the jabs finally breaks in the mainstream media. The DT is already publishing articles and even the BBC website had an article about excess deaths the other day. More and more genuine experts, like Prof Angus Dalgleish, are speaking out.
Look who’s gone or is going: Adhern (gone); Sturgeon (gone); Drakeford (gone); Johnson and Handcock (gone); Sunak and Gove (going); Rutte (gone); Macron (on his way out); the Belgian PM (just resigned); I’m waiting for Trudeau to be resigned …. and then there’s Biden.
June 16, 2024
I forgot Varadker (gone). And I’m sure there (and will be) others.
June 16, 2024
s+1
June 16, 2024
And start fracking.
June 16, 2024
+1
June 16, 2024
Plus ditch the net zero con trick.
June 16, 2024
You are assuming Rishi and Cameron wanted to win. They didnât.
Rishi was parachuted into the job against MPs wishes and all Brexit movement stopped.
I take the view that Cameron was also ordered in to reverse his Brexit âmistakeâ before being given a good job. He was told he had to give Labour a huge majority to allow this to happen. The Conservatives and Labour on their won could never win enough seats to reverse Brexit.
Cameron was given the foreign office because they were pro EU and were part of the plan. Cameron did nothing at the foreign office other than draw a line in the sand to ensure we did not move further from the EU and prepare for re-entry. All talk of Brexit was shutdown by him.
If Cameron cared about the Conservative Party he would not have acted in the way he did. He would have made public that he would deliver Brexit. He kept his mouth shut.
Cameron then opened the borders to a few million low paid migrants to ensure the Conservatives lost the election. Rishi let in a lot of Indians as part of the deal.
On D Day Cameron was asked to step in for Rishi. As an experienced politician Cameron would have known this was terrible optics for his fellow ex Etonian. If you look at the photo of Cameron with the other EU leaders you can see in his face he has been planing something bigger than the Summit.
Every fibre of my body tells me the Conservative Party is rotten to the core and MPs are being stitched up. The Conservative Party are the most successful political party ever, why have they messed up with such clarity?
These last 18 months have been as poorly acted and clumsy as an Etonian Christmas play.
That is why you must support Reform.
June 16, 2024
There are fives types of society.
Nomadic, Tribal, Feudal, Democratic and Global.
The reality. Not the conspiracy. The REALITY is that World leaders currently subscribe to a post-democratic, technocratic led society where democracy is subverted by super-national and sub-national technocratic non Governmental Organisations.
World leaders believe democracy is dangerous and destabilising. They are trying to create a new non democratic society where the people are led by the science. Not only is the science âsettledâ but also how to run a Government. There is only one way to run society and we have learnt how to do that. Democracy is there is settle minor issues like what age to stop smoking.
Just like Star Trek all the biggest resource is energy and all energy is renewable and will eventually by ultra cheap at source.
World leaders do not believe importing millions of people from tribal or feudal societies into a democratic society is a problem because they will have to fit into the new globalist society.
June 16, 2024
A case to show world leaders are deranged, and are sowing the seeds of international strife, and societal unrest and possible violence as a result.
Good intentions, but unhinged.
June 16, 2024
Energy will never be cheap at source. Even if a way could be found to produce cheap energy (certainly not windmills and solar panels which are expensive to install maintain and have a short life) it will never be provided to the public at cheap prices. I well remember Nuclear in the 1950’s when we were assured electricity would be so cheap it would not even be metered. Lies, as usual and now is no different.
June 16, 2024
graham1946 :
Whilst I agree with you that windmills and solar panels will never produce cheap [reliable] energy please do not confuse nuclear fusion and nuclear fission. Nuclear fusion, embodied in ZETA (Zero Energy Thermonuclear Apparatus) was the 1950s attempt to emulate the nuclear fusion reactions which take place in the sun and if it ever becomes achievable MAY be so cheap as to be too cheap to meter. The nuclear process we currently use is nuclear fission which is currently half the price of renewables and with further development could be made far cheaper. Atomic bombs are nuclear fission and hydrogen bombs are nuclear fusion bombs triggered by an atomic bomb.
June 16, 2024
Excellent blog Javelin. Slimy Cameron could have replicated Steve Harper inCanada and gone back to the electorate instead of going to bed with lie dems. He used it to drag Tory party left honouring vile Blaire in the process.
Brexit is never mentioned to challenge Tory govt or opposition stance, this speaks volumes to me. Silence on the largest topic that decided the last election with a 85 seat majority! Both sides agreed get rid of Johnson get rid of Brexit. Ken Clarke supporting Labour also speaks volumes. Sunak could weaponise quotes and acts from Labour front bench MPs over Brexit. Nothing!
Reform is the only choice whether you are Labour or Tory. Time to implement Brexit, reduce state, cut taxes, cut immigration. Mass immigration is to rid us of our nation state, way of life and culture to make it easier for EU lockstep as if we never left!
June 16, 2024
Sunak went to Winchester a shame he never grasped much maths or he would not keep assuring us the Covid Vaccines were safe, that he has cut taxes and his failure to understand the causes of inflation.
Endless attacks trying to brand Farage a racist from Lords Cameron of Greenshill, Lord Heseltine of Westland and many others – the more they do this dog whistling the more contempt people will have for them and the more people will vote Reform and not vote Conservative. Rightly so other than in the few places like Somerset NE where they do have sensible MPs.
June 16, 2024
But Rishi went to Winchester, not Eton. Perhaps this is part of his problem?
June 16, 2024
Sunak was at Winchester, not Eton. Direct train from Southampton and straight up the M3.
June 17, 2024
Javelin
Have to agree with your comment on Cameron.
Why on earth did he not caution Sunak, that he was making a huge error when he was asked to stand in.
Yes I too looked at his face and stance, he was delighted to be at the top table again with World leaders, look at me, contacts dear boy, contacts.
He showed his true worth when he resigned, no real backbone, no real patriotism, then latter lobbying his contacts in the Government for his paymasters at the time.
What on earth was Sunak thinking bringing him back ?
June 16, 2024
Sunak:- âNow, for the first time has opened up about how he has dealt with the difficulties he and his party have faced, saying he had turned to his faith to give him the strength to carry on.
A great shame as his resignation even now would help the Tories hugely. His compass is 180 degrees out just go. Plus he lies on Climate Change, on unequivocally safe vaccines, on having cut taxes, on the causes of inflation⊠does Hinduism not require honesty?
I read that:- âTruth is the essence of the Vedas.” The Epic repeatedly emphasizes that satya is a basic virtue, because everything and everyone depends on and relies on satya. To speak the truth is meritorious. There is nothing higher than truth.â not that religions and belief system like climate alarmism or the old ones are really my thing.
June 16, 2024
I guarantee that had this country not trashed its religious base we would not be in this situation.
Other cultures do not abandon theirs!
June 16, 2024
Who would you replace him with? The Tories have ousted or maligned all their populist Brexit MPs and only have WEF stooges lined up to take over from Sunak. I’m afraid they have destroyed themselves from within. Whether this is by design or stupidity I don’t know. The only way to save our country is to vote for Reform which is the only party that aims to deliver a better future for the British people. I’ve read all the manifestoes and it is the only one that has vision and hope for our country.
June 16, 2024
Well anyone would have less of his record of failure and could strike out in a new direction with more chance of being beleived.
June 16, 2024
This reminds me of the 1970 Bill Oddie single âHarry Krishnaâ.
Itâs a chant that name checks Harry Secombe, Harry Worth, Harry Lauder, Harry Corbett , Sooty & Sweep. Honourable mention for Harry Stotle too. Probably not politically correct nowadays.
June 16, 2024
Ah the days of great B sides.
June 16, 2024
Slowness, if not reluctance to deal with long visible problems, coupled with a realisation that Reform had a contract of answers and a leadership that could articulate them.
Add to that a conservative government in power that first managed to fritter away its Commons lead and then emphasise it by visible internal division. Perhaps its greatest sin was to divorce itself from its Conservative base support in the country.
The polling tide has now turned against what was your government and party. The only factor left to save a rout is our corrupt FPTP election format. It is very difficult do judge the growing momentum behind Reform, only the possibility that your fragmented party could end in third place.
Labour seem set to win with very ill defined Change. I predict it will leave the nation with only small change in its pockets. It is my hope that Nigel will be able to very effectively hold its feet to the fire. Time will judge Sunak’s precipitate rush to an early election.
June 16, 2024
But then, maybe Sunak’s judgement was based on the high risk of more unpleasantness slithering out of the woodwork? To completely sink the tories.
Or maybe he called it to catch Reform off the hop?
Then Farage re emerges to save us all ( before the deluge⊠I am not being serious)
If anyone had taken notice it was always said that Tice was just keeping the Reform throne warm for the return of the king.
June 16, 2024
Something else has happened to prompt European leaders to call elections they know they will lose. They want to leave the stage. Amazing really.
I think itâs the fact that the undeniable imminent defeat of NATO at the hands of the Russian Federation is the prompt. Thank God Putin has no desire to add the fraught European countries to his domain. We are lucky.
Stoltenberg is stuttering, gesticulating and obviously nearing a state of nervous collapse.
The politicians fought this war âoff balance-sheetâ. Itâs been hidden completely, and now they need to not only tell people that we have been at war but that we have lost.
The lost economic war (Russia now the 4th biggest economy in the world on ppp) is most obvious, we have been deindustrialised because our sanctions turned out to be sanctions on ourselves! The Germans are in very serious straights and they will take the EU down with them. So from my perspective, a price well worth paying!
Western companies are returning to Russia en mass because that is where growth and profit lies.
Western people are cottoning on. They are very angry and I believe the current political class are actually afraid. If they are lucky they will be sacked.
June 16, 2024
Lovely post.
I still puzzle as to why US/EU etc fomented all this.
To expand the EUâs influence?
Couldnât really have been Crimea could it?
To get minerals etc from Ukraine?
No idea.
Anyway it has cost oodles of money, many, many lives and as for the carbon footprint of warâŠwell swoon!!
June 16, 2024
Western countries are waking up to the fact that their leaders have lost the plot, and show incompetence.
The leaders are realising they are not up to it, and wish to get out of the blame spotlight.
June 16, 2024
+1
NATO now stating it does not want Trump to control US assets for Ukraine! What does that say about globalists!
June 16, 2024
đđ€Ł Trump like Putin would not play the Globalist ball. Johnson would but could not cut the mustard. So he remains outside the club and poor. đ„ł
June 16, 2024
What was missed by having an early election was preventing the Reform Party from preparing earlier for an even bigger boost than they are presently gaining from.
June 16, 2024
Bloke,
Maybe Sunak thought he could wrong foot his opponents. Maybe he thought Rwanda scheme failure would make his prospects worse.
With one bound he is free again, like the old Hollywood (Bollywood?)heroes on the silver screen. He may be daft enough to believe that.
June 16, 2024
But he has promised to stay on as MP for 5 years and as leader of the parties 80 MPs or so? Just as Cameron did. Surely he is not lying like Cameron did is he? Surely even he cannot manage to lose in Richmond, Yorks can he?
June 16, 2024
He could have left ECHR or included notwithstanding clauses to make his third party country scheme work, as advocated by Braverman. He Chose not to.
June 16, 2024
+1
June 16, 2024
+1
June 16, 2024
Sunaks only immigration plan will be stopped in July by Labour …..vote reform return the boats mid-channel
June 16, 2024
So Sunak didnât call an early election for the good of the country but to scupper reforms plans âŠ.not a party I wish to be associated with
June 16, 2024
He did not scupper Reforms plan. Farage would always have âdecidedâ a few weeks before the election. Nothing changed. Their plan is not to win seats, itâs to win votes and few seats. Then they are free of responsibility and Farage can do what he promised and what he knows he can do âbe a nusienceâ.
June 16, 2024
I’m still interested as to why Sunak called an early election
June 16, 2024
It looks like a major motivation for leaping so soon, yet it has backfired because his own party was unprepared, and as Sir John points out still suffering from applying Uniparty policies instead of Conservative ones.
June 16, 2024
Good morning.
So why the early election if a later one would have been better ?
Something in the back of my mind tells me that former US President Barack Obama had something to do with it when he came to London.
There is something going on. President Macron holding elections to the French Parliament when he too did not need to. All very odd.
June 16, 2024
Yes, indeed: why? It would be interesting to know what reasons our host was given, if any. I suspect he wasn’t, but was just told this is what we’ve decided.
June 16, 2024
I understand the Cabinet wasn’t even included on the decision . It was reported that Sunak told the Cabinet he had spoken to the King , so they were delivered a fait accompli.
June 16, 2024
I think that Lynn has explained it above.
It is probably more of a global decision than a domestic one!
June 16, 2024
Arenât we lucky to have such a distinguished kremlinologist among us?
Only problem is that Western companies which were not able to leave in 2022 are more or less forced to stay (edition.cnn.com, 26/07/2023 âThe risks are rising for Western firms in Russia. So why so many stay put?â) (ft.com, 28/05/2024 âWestern businesses backtract on their Russian exit planâ)
businessinsider.com, 12/01/2024 âWestern companies have exited Russia in droves. New companies with owners in China and former Soviet republics are stepping inâ.
June 16, 2024
Thank you, thank you for highlighting this – why is this being being ignored?
June 16, 2024
I note that in response to the left wing parties forming a bloc in France the right wing parties have done likewise, with LR and Debout La France standing behind RN. In French style, the Left are revolting with demonstrations on the streets. That can only help those in the middle decide that they are not the way ahead. The chances of an RN government are increasing.
June 16, 2024
There were risks leaving the election until November; one can think of many possible (even probable) black swan events. The UK is heavily involved in a major European war. The train drivers and the junior doctors are on strike and there are other industrial disputes brewing. The war in the middle east shows signs of escalation and the UK’s dependence on imported fossil fuels exposes us to another quadrupling of energy bills. There are millions of dissafected young Muslim men here who are susceptible to radicalisation.
One cannot predict the future. Taking a chance on an early election avoids all the above – the surprising thing is that, so far, the polls have widened and not narrowed in the Tories favour.
June 16, 2024
One cannot predict the future for certain very often, but one can very often be rather accurate. Starmer will be PM even if not for Long perhaps replaced by an even more leftwing loon. Net zero will be delayed and will never happen it cannot technically, would cost ÂŁtrillion for negative benefits and MPs cannot change the laws of physics or economics, net zero/climate alarmism will eventually be seen for what it is a total con trick. People will soon realised the Covid Vaccines and lockdowns did massive net harms.
Also abolition of Non Dom status and VAT on school fees will cost far more than they raise and will do huge net harm. A few of my predictions.
June 16, 2024
‘One cannot predict the future.’
Perhaps not, but plenty have imagined possible outcomes – dystopian novels, or predictions on social and control bleak futures like Orwell.
June 16, 2024
Fishy issued 5 pledges which he abysmally failed in
Inflation was not his remit so he can’t take credit for that. As for tax cuts, you know well that freezing the allowance cancelled out any NI cuts.
The government is leaving a lot of land mines for the incoming administration particularly on the energy front
We are destined for power outages after the failure to tackle the problem
The net zero nonesense is starting to unravel as the bills come in.
Fishy is doing a Cameron and running scared.
June 16, 2024
âInflation was not his remit so he canât take credit for that.â
Well Rishi as Chancellor with Boris and the the foolish Bailey certainly caused the 12% inflation with QE, the net harm lockdowns and net harm vaccines, the net zero rip off energy lunacy, the vast government waste, every higher taxesâŠ
June 16, 2024
Why canât he take credit for falling inflation? The Tories took the blame when it shot up in line with the States?
The Tories are to blame for mortgage interest rising to around 5%, but they werenât to credit for the 13 years below 2% that everyone other than savers enjoyed.
June 16, 2024
Careful, SG. If as you say ‘one can think of many possible (even probable) black swan events’, they are not black swan events.
June 16, 2024
Well not sure Black Swan events have to be totally unpredictable to be so called. A massive meteor hitting the earth for example – when and where might be hard but it will surely happen sooner or latter. Look at all the moon craters.
June 16, 2024
The moon has no atmosphere in which the meteors to burn.
June 17, 2024
Indeed, but our atmosphere does not burn off the larger ones!
June 16, 2024
Indeed! I recall dialogue that went: –
Sir Humphrey Appleby : I foresee all sorts of unforeseen problems.
Jim Hacker : Such as?
Sir Humphrey Appleby : If I could foresee them, they wouldn’t be unforeseen.
June 16, 2024
Nice words but meaningless. The damage is done. Your party’s immoral and cowardly actions since 2010 have condemned this nation to a most terrible future
June 16, 2024
You are so right.
I am in âescapeâ mode.
But there is nowhere to escape to ( that I can think of).
Up a mountain somewhere? Off grid?
June 16, 2024
‘condemned this nation to a most terrible future’ – with or without the result of the GE.
14 destructive and mistaken years to be followed by an alarming 5 more with a new captain of the shipwreck.
June 16, 2024
Not unless everyone votes Reform and rids Labour as well as Tory from govt.
June 16, 2024
Indeed. Starmer has already said that he’s prepared to make enemies. Contrast this to the Tories’ “We must think of people who didn’t vote for us” or “The Red Wall vote is borrowed.”
I knew that the 80 seat majority and Brexit was going to be wasted the morning after the last general election. The Tories were horrified to have been in that position and were lining up their get-outs on promises from the start.
June 17, 2024
+1
June 16, 2024
So once again your advice was ignored, SJR. Same old same old. I’m not surprised you quit.
June 16, 2024
@ Bill B. – do you really think so? That is relief!
I had been racked by guilt lest a comment of mine, about how being an M.P. was a rotten job in modern Britain, with prudence dictating wearing a stab vest before meeting customers, had, for possibly only the second time here, influenced real world action. My therapist has assured me this was very unlikely and that if influenced by any comment at all it would have been beresfordâs, written only a few days before Sir Johnâs announcement, that if he left parliament Sir John would have more time to spend with us here.
June 16, 2024
In what can only be described as an unfriendly act, the Biden administration has authorised the sale of 24 Danish F-16 warplanes to Argentina – more than the 14 it authorised for Ukraine. Despite British diplomatic representations, the US has also provided $40m to pay for the purchase. Also cleared was the transfer of four P-3 maritime patrol aircraft from Norway to Argentina.
Biden claimed that an alternative offer from China of 50 JF-17 aircraft from Pakistan would damage America’s security.
Rear Admiral Carlos MarĂa Allievi, Chief of the General Staff of the Argentine Navy, has now confirmed that the Argentine Navy is considering the acquisition of a Landing Platform Dock and a Landing Ship Tank. The LST, similar to the ARA Cabo San Antonio used in the Falklands War, would be used for direct beach landings.
There are only 1700 UK military personnel left defending the Islands. There are four Typhoon FRG4 jets (one of which is grounded awaiting maintenance), a Voyager refueling tanker, an A400 Atlas transport and an underarmed Offshore Patrol Vessel, HMS Forth.
It seems that Argentina has decided to upgrade it’s armed forces. In view of the history, this has to be considered a threat to the security of the Falkland Islands. The SDSR planned by the Shadow Defence Secretary John Healy after the election should take this development into account.
In the interim, SoD Defence Grant Shrapps may wish to reinforce the Falklands garrison with a substantial contingent of Royal Marines as a show of determination – and get the grounded Typhoon airworthy.
June 16, 2024
SG
Agree, does not look friendly, and we certainly do not have the naval force to replicate the 1982 scenario, I window if any planning (just in case) is happening.
June 16, 2024
window. = wonder predictive text strikes again.
June 16, 2024
The great hero in many peoples minds was Boris, won his majority with masterful performances on the stump in a sea of bland and he got Brexit done. That indicated to many people he was a true conservative but in fact he was a social liberal and that took the party to the centre from which Sunak, even if he had wanted to could not move it. Sir JR and co did a great job but were out numbered by the One Nation groups etc.
The result, a fragmented party that didnât seem to believe in anything, knew it had disaffected voters so threw a few sprats IHT, ECHR reform, lower tax etc but never had neither the political adhesion nor the economy. Add a feeling of lack of competence and you see the resulting mess.
Memories are short but this is similar to the state they were in when Blair thrashed them. Starmer is no Blair but even in a two horse race would have taken the disaffected centre. Whatâs changed and across Europe is a populist surge on the right.
So if someone is to be âblamedâ I suggest start with Boris. He also got bored with Brexit so wasnât interested in fighting to force change. Ukraine got his attention, says it all. He also hosed money (even before Covid)
June 16, 2024
The Argies may think Starmer is no Thatcher and they likely would be correct.
June 16, 2024
Why defend the Falklands when we refuse to defend Britain?
June 16, 2024
Well fellow NATO members are on notice they need to step up. With all the agitation going on to the East of Europe, I expect many of them will be looking to the UK for support.
June 16, 2024
Even with our greatly depleted armed forces, it would not be very difficult to reinforce the garrison on the Falklands to more that counter the actions of Argentina. Money should not be a problem as the oil discovered around the islands will yield billions. The revenue from oil licences alone would cover it many times over before a drop of oil is brought ashore.
June 16, 2024
Chris
They may choose to leave the oil in the ground, you know Climate Change, Net Zero !!!!!!!!!!!
Plenty of wind most of the time down there though I guess.
June 16, 2024
A useful update. Thanks.
June 16, 2024
It’s obvious, Sunak went for the election before his Rwanda plan limped into action. Like us out here in the real world, he knows it’s doomed. The ECHR, wokesters and lefty lawyers will prevent it ever working. Thus he’ll claim ‘not my fault guv’
June 16, 2024
Also before the figure on employment decreases and negative growth came out. Will we even see any interest rate reductions before Nov. ? Cameron, May, Boris, Sunak have left a truly appalling mess. All due to bad decisions they made a botched and delay Brexit, net harm lockdowns, net harm vaccines, HS2, vast government waste, taxes too high, far too much and totally incompetent government, soft loans for duff worthless degrees, vast low skilled open door immigration and the insanity of net zero and their mad energy policy.
June 16, 2024
I suspect you’re right about that, OA.
It was my immediate thought as soon as the election was announced.
What other reason could there be for going early when you consider what SJR has said above ?
June 16, 2024
Indeed. The Rwanda plan will never fly!!! Snake knows it, hence election. No will to return boats immediately to France or deport them on arrival. We need Reform.
June 16, 2024
I don’t doubt what you say, Sir John, but the Conservative Party has frittered away 14 years in Government when it could have made such a positive difference for the moral and economic good of this Country. As it is, they have allowed the luncay of Labour’s transgender cult, kneebendinding to “Black Lives Matter”, pro-Hamas antisemitism, net zero, record net immigration, illegal immigration etc all to take hold and gain traction even though the Conservatives were supposed to be in power. (Oh, and factor in the way Sunak was determined to become PM at all costs – talk about “Mutiny on the Titanic”). Was the Government asleep at the wheel or complicit?
Of course I shall support Pauline, my local Conservative Candidate on a personal level but please don’t mistake this for an endorsement of Sunak and the bunch of losers supposedly running the Government.
June 17, 2024
If you mean Pauline Jorgensen, David, you don’t have to make a difficult choice: there’s no Reform candidate in your constituency.
June 16, 2024
John, Most us out here myself included, do not understand Sunak’s motive for going early, if things were really going to get better !
Surely to goodness he should have had at least another Budget to outline the economic and immigration progress (if there was any) and then at least show preparedness or dates for tax cuts.
His thinking simply does not make sense if what he is claiming is true.
June 16, 2024
Give it up Sir John, the Tory Party of 2024 is not the Conservative Party we once knew and supported.
Don’t even think about massaging the NHS waiting list numbers down. That would be seen for what it actually is presenting data for political purposes, rather than presenting meaningful data.
AS for taking a few legal migrants off the headline count, well. that smacks of desperation as does suggesting the up and down of inflation had anything to do with Tory policy.
Despite what CCHQ might think the electorate are not fools, some clearly are, but not all by a very big margin.
June 16, 2024
This is a One Nation Tory disaster, it kills off for good the notion that Conservatives win elections in the ‘centre ground ‘ . The Tory left, for they are not of the political centre, removed the leaders they didn’t like, made it impossible to respond to the electorate’s wishes, abandoned their right flank, installed their own man, and now the Conservatives face a wipe out. When ever a Wet, Remainer, No Nation Tory tries to prattle about the centre ground they should have their noses rubbed in this defeat.
PS and I haven’t made an error, they are No Nation Tories, for they would have sold us out to the EU if they could. They object to our nation acting in its own interests. They would join up to any international body so ensuring we have less sovereign power, and they are horrified that we should have any desire to control our borders.
June 16, 2024
Iâm with you 100%.
Thatâs why globalists (the current political class of the west) love people of mixed race – they have no nation. Therefore they need no country.
June 16, 2024
What else have we missed?
The importation of criminal migrants for a life of “free everything” is currently running at 43% higher than last year; no flights to Rwanda have taken off and there’s not likely to be any since the Windsor Betrayal has given the Activist Lawyers the ability to block them.
One in 30 people walking the streets of Britain have arrived here in the last two years. Small steps to reduce immigration is not going to make a scrap of difference; this isn’t immigration it’s race replacement in progress. We need Net Zero Immigration and to start deporting those immigrants who are preying on our society.
The explosion of violent crime which is largely being carried out by foreign drug gangs and their teenage recruits is only going to get worse. Meanwhile Sunak’s priority is to humiliate middle-aged adults who smoke by making them produce ID.
There are no tax cuts; taxes are rising and “Tax Freedom Day” is now 10th June (up from 22 May in 2019) and those gullible enough to believe Sunak’s lies will very soon work out that he has lied.
In fact, when you sum it up …. all we’ve missed is a whole summer of Sunak lying to us.
June 16, 2024
We have missed another few months of this rotten government messing up our lives for only the price of the next rotten government making an earlier start on its way to acting the same.
I had not expected the campaign to show the present government in such a poor light, justified though that is.
June 16, 2024
“We have missed another few months of this rotten government messing up our lives for only the price of the next rotten government making an earlier start on its way to acting the same.”
Like going to the dentist – best to get it over with.
June 16, 2024
People say that Sunak is fearful of what Putin will do within the next couple of months, and that although we are effectively at war now, Putinâs response to our stupidity may make it overt – and that Sunak doesnât want to be PM of a country at war. I suppose that is Hindu thinking. Historically, being a war PM has been good for the relevant party. It was good for Mrs. T. How we miss her!
June 16, 2024
Itâs only good to be a Wartime PM if you win!
From the âpeace summitâ
“If Russia doesnât agree to our terms we will force them to surrender”
â PM of Italy, Meloni
đđ€Ł
Notice âour termsâ.
June 16, 2024
I do not think we have won any wars under Blair, Brown, Cameron through to Sunak have we? All have done huge net harm and cost lives & ÂŁbillions.
June 16, 2024
‘Tis only a scratch!
June 16, 2024
Politico JUNE 3, 2024 5:00 AM CET BY JAMES FITZGERALD
LONDON â With July’s election looking set to put Labour back in government, a race for jobs in the U.K.’s finance ministry has begun.
The sudden announcement by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak that Brits will head to the polls next month has fired up the City’s revolving door: finance policy professionals are rushing to join the party for advisor or ministerial jobs.
At the same time, Labour politicos who know they won’t get top jobs in government are beginning to eye well-paid opportunities in the City of London.
June 16, 2024
The only credible explanation I can see for the timing of Rishi Sunak’s election decision is that it fits in with a job lined up in the US. I know he says he will carry on if elected, but he’s got to say that. Just like a quitter saying it’s his last cigarette, or the alcoholic having his last drink, when temptation is too great he will change his mind.
June 16, 2024
Cameron said he would carry on whatever the outcome of the Brexit vote. Another blatant lie by someone who is now Foreign Secretary.
June 16, 2024
Well, when are they making it Public?
Raise Sir Lord Redwood !
Putting T May in the HoL dilutes it even farther!
We need Reform!
RDM
June 16, 2024
All very good points, Sir John.
Either PM Sunak thought that the UKâs situation would get worse or that he wanted to lose, just as PM May did in her snap 2017 GE, or both.
Either he thought that his Rwanda Bill to curb illegal immigration wouldnât work or he wants an incoming Labour administration to halt it.
Perhaps he doesnât want to be in charge when the Net Zero Strategy finally collapses as it surely will fairly shortly. Sir Keir Starmer and Lord Callanan are both still saying that ârenewables are (far) cheaper than gasâ when reliable gas is ÂŁ60/MWhr (without carbon taxes) and the next CfD contracts for chaotically intermittent fixed offshore wind is ÂŁ100/MWhr. The CfD price for chaotically intermittent floating offshore wind, recommended by Sir Keir in his Great British Energy speech in Scotland, is ÂŁ242/MWhr.
Finally these emperors will be found to have no clothes. You cannot fool all of the people all of the time.
June 16, 2024
PS :
As I find is so often the case, it doesn’t make sense because there is something we haven’t been told.
June 16, 2024
It is increasingly difficult to refrain from concluding that the sole purpose of calling the election early was to be sure of losing it to Starmer and his brand of globalist socialism, and to catch Reform – the voice of principled opposition to managerialist decline – unprepared.
Look at how this has worked out. The only ones truly caught unprepared were the Conservative associations who needed to find a PPC at exceptionally short notice. Then again, looking at the manner in which various SPADs and hangers on were parachuted into some of those vacancies, might that have been a collateral purpose?
June 16, 2024
Who is going to vote for backroom interns parachuted in to save face? Thats why many predict a surfing ‘wipeout’.
June 16, 2024
There is no logical reason.
He has either done it in a fit of pique, maybe resignation letters were building so heâs jumped before he lost face.
However, his choice is losing him far more face, so he must be absolutely full of himself.
To lumber us with Starmer is what I expected him to do when he took over in the coup.
Iâm left not knowing who to vote for, I have no idea about my new Tory candidate, he is invisible in my town, the last one supported Sunak for the leadership then didnât stand on Sunakâs ticket, like Gove who supported Sunak to take over and many other MPs who over-rode the membership to put him in place then stood down at the first opportunity. I canât support Sunakâs compulsory maths to 18 and national service for 18 year olds.
June 16, 2024
Farage in the seven-way BBC debate: ‘The model for the NHS is wrong’.
That is so obvious.âA look at the history of friendly societies being nobbled to benefit doctors and insurance companies, doctors mouths being ‘stuffed with gold’, the ‘envy of the world’ slogan when no other country has suffered by copying its model, Blair putting doctors before patients with over-generous terms, and ‘our NHS’ to try to shore up support when word is spreading of poorer outcomes for the same money compared to other countries.
Once again it has been Farage who is willing to break the political taboo and say in politics what the man in the pub has been saying for years.
June 16, 2024
The NHS waiting list numbers are definitely fudged. I donât believe them at all. As you say John people that have got to wait 6 months to see how their first treatment goes are counted as being on a waiting list thats not the same thing at all and when Labour take over will be redefined back to what they were as second treatment (not waiting) and the figures will halve then reduce significantly as if by magic.
I canât believe people fall for this sort of con trick in order to change government. You never hear which hospitals in particular are failing, which waiting lists are the longest for which treatments, how many are second call back appointments (not waiting at all). I know sadly lots of people getting treatments at the moment and they were all seen quickly. The only person I know waiting six months was an 86 year old man waiting for a hip replacement but his skin cancer was treated very quickly indeed and perhaps they didnât want to do the hip work until he was off the other treatment.
You never hear people talking about good treatment from their GP practice either, the new telephony services that are recording calls, waiting times, taking messages and offering call backs – no one even mentions that investment – why? Some GPs are offering Saturday morning catch up clinics you never hear that mentioned. It will all miraculously be perfect a year after Starmerâs gang get elected and he stuffs their mouths with the 25% theyâve got left of their demand and if everyone thinks the nom doms are paying for all that, then stand by your beds because theyâre planning lots of oldie taxes, LL it will make what the Tories have done look generous.
June 16, 2024
Sir John
It would appear as always you have sat in front of People had a conversation, they have been polite, not heard what you have said, gave you a pat on the head and moved on. From the reflections we see on the outside a Conservative cant direct a Socialist away from their hard-left beliefs.
Socialist don’t hear, everyone is equal as long as you do what they say, so others their opinions are not heard. Socialist are prolific spenders and borrowers, that they fund through high taxation. To a Socialist the economy isn’t what a Country earns it is what it Taxes, how it taxes to punish and manipulate. The economy, real earnings and wealth is not a consideration, its not about moving forward its about control.
Reflect on the People you have been mixed up with in the last 14 years and you will appreciate, those that wielded the doctrine dished out the punishment and didn’t have an once of Conservativism in them.
June 16, 2024
Polling by Savanta for The Telegraph â the main take away
âHerein lies the fundamental problem for the Conservative Partyâs election campaign. While itâs priced in that Labour will raise some taxes, and the Conservative manifesto has some well-liked ideas, the public no longer trusts the Conservatives to deliver on anything they say, including some reasonably popular manifesto policies.â
Isn’t that the feeling everywhere after 14 years of what turns out to be lies – retribution seems more palatable than the certain punishment elsewhere. CCHQ and this Government have to go – even today it isn’t to late to salvage the party
June 16, 2024
We have to ditch the party to salvage the politics.
June 16, 2024
If only the important would listen !.
June 16, 2024
A later election sounds reasonable but is merely clutching at straws. If suddenly everything you suggest came about it would look very fishy indeed. A few months of wonderful figures could never have obscured the memory of 14 wasted years, of many broken manifesto promises, of the attempt to scupper Brexit, even with an 80 seat majority, completely wasted on Tories fighting like rats in a sack. How would we know that such good times and promises would be honoured after all the broken ones? The Tories keep on about Covid and the Ukraine war, but you had almost 10 years before any of that. The truth is that the Tories busted the economy long before Liz Truss with austerity which achieved nothing but ruin all the public services and increase the national debt by at least a Trillion. The Tories will pay for that and I am glad it will be sooner rather than a book cooking later.
June 16, 2024
So Sunakâs decision making capability is in question â why did he call an early election and why didnât he tell/consultant his cabinet and backbenches first ? If heâs got the date of the election wrong âŠ.what else has he got wrong, or is he just following instructions from the WEF
June 16, 2024
Unfortunately, Sir John, the Government and much of the Conservative Parliamentary Party, give the impression that although well aware of public opinion they respond with superficial or performative measures because they don’t share the public’s opinion or beliefs. What they do believe in is hard to tell.
June 16, 2024
More people are likely to come out and vote in the summer, but postponing the election to November would not help the Tory vote — Too many people are still very angry at them for a variety of reasons.
If the Tory vote switches to Labour then we are surely a nation bereft of common sense, for labour will just make everything worse. Socialists just cannot think with numbers – just look at their inane spending plans. That money tree is going to be bare and we will be taxed to within an inch of our lives to satisfy their destructive instincts.
The big 3 have to go!
June 16, 2024
Sunak has decided to leave the stage early as have other Western leaders because he does not want to be a war PM. This is a very stressful occupation which explains why Churchill was permanently inebriated throughout.
NATO is already getting into position for an attack on Russia and the US State Department also has been reported as plotting a surprise ‘knockout’ blow using nuclear weapons on the ability of Russia to defend itself, hence the attacks on its early warning radar infrastructure.
Why is Vladimir Putin continually demonised in the MSM? The USA sees Putin as the leader of an increasingly large group of nations, the BRICS, which have most of the world’s natural resources including food growing which the US multinationals would like to get their hands on. It’s pillaging of Ukraine was also interrupted by the decision of Russia to intervene in support of their countrymen being slaughtered in Donbass.
The US also believes that any act is justified for it to remain the world’s hegemon. Furthermore, the US regards the defeat of Russia as essential to its plan to remove the Chinese Communist from power before China has built up its defence capability to the point of impregnability. After the defeat of Russia, the country would be broken up into about twenty states that can easily be controlled by the US.
The average Joe in the USA is neither behind this heinous plan nor even aware of it but then under the FPTP US election system, two parties are easily controlled by the big money to provide the people with a belief in democracy whilst the same warmongers occupy the State Department irrespective of a change of government.
Aren’t we lucky that we as the senior NATO power after the US will be in the thick of the conflagration to come?
June 16, 2024
Lord Ashcroftâs polling company has recently produced a number of interesting surveys, all available from lordashcroftpolls.com
The latest one from 13th of June should scare the bejesus from the Conservatives
Look for The Farage factor, faith in Labour, why are people really deserting the Tories, and is the campaign making a difference?
June 16, 2024
Why wonder at Sunak’s apparently direct path from selection as leader to electoral disaster? As Sunak is not a stupid man, perhaps you should ask why he is so determined to lose. His actions lead inexorably to electoral wipeout for the Tories and tis own immediate resignation, so perhaps we should examine which personal and external forces have shaped those actions. I think I know, but hope I am wrong.
June 16, 2024
@mancunius – the malicious destruction of the Conservative Party comes to mind. Any right-minded person would have picked up by now they are the problem and for the sake of the whole Conservative movement and the Country they would have moved on by now. So as with the manifesto the opposite has to be the truth
June 16, 2024
But if the core elect-ability problem is not timing but policies, waiting only makes things worse.
The opinion polls suggest voters will be lending their vote to policies that are anything but what our host (or indeed Reform) suggest. People are not proposing to vote for the polar opposite of what they truly want, they will vote for what they actually want, or at least what is _acceptable_. Is anyone seriously suggesting _all_ the professional opinion polling companies have it so wrong, in the end be it a 20 or a 200 seat majority; and no there is no grand conspiracy, before any knees jerk.
Some comments, not articles, to this site remind me of those misguided Militant Tendency activists who, after June 1983, claimed Labour had lost because the polices had not been radical enough, if only Eric Heffer or Tony Benn had been the leader of ‘their’ party, rather than Micheal Foot.
June 16, 2024
Jerry
Are you really claiming posts on here criticising the record of the Conservatives over the last 14years are stating opinions equivalent to the extremists of the Miltant Tendency?
I find that quite ridiculous.
Hysterical almost.
June 17, 2024
@Sam; Indeed you comments are hysterical, and quite ridiculous, given I did not use the word “extremists”. What I actually said was “Activists” & “Radical”, are you suggesting there are no activists within Reform, how do they campaign; are you suggesting Mrs Thatcher (or indeed Reagan) wasn’t radical with her economic polices?!
The Militant Tendency who, by way of were Entryism into the Labour party, attempted to take that party further to the political left under the ‘Labour’ banner, not their own -at the time.
Reform who, by way of Exitism (the loss of support/membership) wish to force the Conservative party further to the political right, doing so under the ‘Conservatism’ (or Toryism) banner, not their own -at least not for now.
“Extremism” is a political label, applicable to both left and right; it can even be applied to the political centre -examples being co-leaderships based on gender, not because of a coalition of policy groups within their party, or support for the more complicated versions of PR.
June 17, 2024
Gosh Jerry, bit of an essay there from you.
Your reply is somewhat predictable.
Whist carefully avoiding my main question.
June 18, 2024
@Sam; I did answer your ‘question’; that you simply do not (wish to) understand is not my problem! Your question wasn’t even a valid question, more an attempted brickbat, based on your assertion that I had used the word “Extremist”
Whatever…
June 16, 2024
He went for an early election because he knew there was no chance at all of anyone being sent to Rwanda not least because he had not enough support in Parliament or in his cabinet to ignore the ECHR. An autumn election with that massive failure wouldnât have resulted in any better outcome.
June 16, 2024
He can use the Royal Prerogative to remove us from the ECHR. He refused to do so. He has signed the G7 accord as the âPresident of The United Kingdomâ. đ€ I think that means we have not agreed the accord and have not officially signed it. đ„°
June 16, 2024
Well if it ârightly wants toâ, why doesnât it? Clearly, it doesnât want to.
June 16, 2024
Sunak has the political and strategic nous of a turnip.
June 16, 2024
What a choice for those voters who want one of the two main parties. One knees down to a Marxist ideology and wears his poppy depending upon his audience and the other leaves the D-Day ceremony early to attend an ITV interview.
June 16, 2024
forget it John, go have a holiday