The latest polls show around 41% wanting Labour, down on the start of the campaign. 38% want Conservative or Reform. So one fifth of the electorate wants something different, two fifths want Labour and the two fifths of a Conservative nature are having a row about policy and who should lead the right.
With numbers like that it will be an unhappy country if it sees an outsized Labour majority, a squeezed Conservative opposition and a handful of Reform MPs which is what pollsters are saying. The truth is the outcome rests on those millions of former Conservative voters who are currently undecided and excluded from regular poll results. Â If they stay at home or vote Reform then we get the outsized Labour majority. If in the end more of them vote Conservative we get a bigger Conservative party.
The most important takeaways are how 60% of the public do not want a Labour government and how half of past Conservative voters feel let down by the current government. If an election was just a verdict on a government then it is clear the Conservatives would fare badly. As it is primarily a choice of a new government it is more difficult for voters. You often have to vote for a government that is far from perfect to avoid one that will be far worse.
Some former Conservatives say they want their former party to do badly to force change. It is difficult to see how Nigel Farage could take over the leadership of the Conservative party as he hints if he did win a seat whilst  many Conservatives lost. The ones who survived would not be feeling friendly to him and as a non member of the party he would be ineligible to lead it.
I find this election difficult to call. If the polls are right the U.K. will suffer from a Labour government a majority do not want and an Opposition too small to make much impact. Maybe voters will surprise. Do you want this out turn or can you see a way to stop it? What do you think all those undecideds will do?
June 24, 2024
âYou often have to vote for a government that is far from perfect to avoid one that will be far worse.â
People like Cameron used to think voters had nowhere else to go. Eventually you had Conservative Party politicians promising one thing and doing the opposite, or doing nothing at all. So maybe the âfar worseâ label is less convincing than it used to be.
It also depends on how quickly you believe change will happen and what the cost will be.
One Nation types hope they will be in the majority of a very small Conservative Party and can rebuild it from the centre ground. Same old, same old. Reform hope they can destroy the party and replace it.
I donât know how it will all pan out.
June 24, 2024
All very depressing, the last thing the country needs is even more net zero, open door immigration, tax to death, big state socialism from Labour. This after 14 years of exactly this form Cameron, May, Boris, Sunak.
Much discussion of voting systems and PR on the BBC recently. They point out the problem of parties getting X million votes and no seats if they have evenly spread votes over the whole country. But it is worse than that as you cannot even vote as you wish but are forced to vote for the keep Labour or LibDims out candidate or waste you vote.
Certainly, by the time of this election, Reform will hopefully be the best hope of this in most English seats.
David Starkey has a good video âWe are about to elect a government nobody wants. What went wrong?
Then we have the problem of the Blob. As Lord Matt Ridley illustrates in his recent rather depressing article in the Spectator âWhoever you vote for, the Blob winsâ. As people often point out – if voting changed anything they would abolish it. The Tories must not be rewarded for their 14 years of total betrayal.
June 24, 2024
“The Tories must not be rewarded for their 14 years of total betrayal.”
That’s my position. I held my nose and voted Conservative in Nov 2019. 4 months later we got the Covid Tyranny and the deliberate destruction of our economy and millions of lives over a virus they KNEW was no more serious than the ‘flu. Overnight the country was turned into a dictatorship resembling the former East Germany. Hardly any Conservative MPs spoke up against it; virtually all voted for it to continue when they had an opportunity to stop it.
I refuse to endorse tyrants with my vote. It would be like voting for Putin.
June 24, 2024
+1 Donna.
Thatâs exactly why the Conservatives donât deserve our vote.
Things will probably get worse before they get better. We can only eliminate one wing of the Globalist Uni-Party at a time.
June 24, 2024
Donna and Richard P, +++++++
June 24, 2024
Donna,
The betrayal and utter contempt shown by the Uni Party to voters is staggering to leave the EU. To quietly act in lock step to EU, prevent divergence from it after an absolute clear mandate to leave is shocking. Both Labour and Tory party need obliterating.
I watched Bridgen MP give his speech on MRNA jabs using Govt. figures. Tory govt and Labour can bury their heads in the sands by leaving chamber, not discussing etc., but the truth will come out. It is outrageous Sunak and Starmer are mandating action now.
Vote Reform before the Uni Party follow EU into war with Russia. Is the Uni Party going to explain to the nation and victims what the war in Afghanistan was for? They also spent billions of our money! Libya the same?
The current scandal over election betting demonstrates the rotten corrupt parliament is in need of radical change. The dishonesty runs through the veins of Westminister.
June 24, 2024
Absolutely agree we. I am sick to death of Westminster and their total betrayal of the British people. The collapse of the uni parties canât come quick enough.
June 24, 2024
What is clear: The majority of people out there, I hope they are voters, do not want another Conservative government.
June 24, 2024
On the contrary, we WANT a conservative Government, – have not had one for 35 years!
How to get it is the question.
Slay the imposter.
June 24, 2024
+1
June 24, 2024
Good point, but re-electing from this second rate squad of imposters gets us no nearer ‘what do we want?’ Wipeout surely cleans up a significant proportion of the problem.
June 24, 2024
Weasel Skidmore epitomises the lack of credible conservatives in the Tory party along with the left wing pro EU nation types. They are in the wrong party, take Slimy Cameron with them.
Lynne is right the Public wants conservatism, Reform only provide that option.
June 24, 2024
I would say that they don’t want THIS not-a-Conservative government.
My feeling is that to vote Convervtive at this time would validate their current direction of travel and policies – is it too late to change that?
Unfortunately for this country the answers seems to be yes đ
June 24, 2024
The X million votes for some minor parties does not even reflect their true support. This even before the very poor seat allocation they receive for the votes they do actually receive (despite the FPTP voting reducing this already) as âYou often have to vote for a government that is far from perfect to avoid one that will be far worse.â
Such is the nature of FPTP but at this election (and perhaps once in a lifetime) in most English seats Reform are the best âbeat Labourâ or âbeat LibDimâ candidates. So nothing to lose. The Tories, having destroyed their brand by aping Labour for 14 years, are offering even more tax to death, Labour light and net zero lunacy in their current Manifesto and we will get Labour anyway.
A large majority for Labour might make them even worse still than the Tories but then perhaps we will only have to suffer one term. So large majority might even be better in practice.
June 24, 2024
Labour will change the voting system so they will remain in power for a generation. This is my biggest fear.
June 24, 2024
They canât.
June 24, 2024
No, people know what the pro EU Labour Party are about. Not even mentioning EU in opposition to Sunak. They are in cahoots!
Trot Starmer, Cooper, Lammy, Red Ed Miliband, Benn all betrayed democracy and the nation trying to overturn our vote to leave EU. That is why the red wall leant Johnson their votes! I canât see them going back to be betrayed by labour again. People are not saying they will vote Reform just like they did not with Brexit.
June 24, 2024
The only thing that would make me vote Tory is if I were voting in a seat with a sound Tory (JR type) of candidate (about 50 such seats at most) AND they were the most likely candidate to keep Labour or the LibDims out in that seat & had a decent chance of so doing (perhaps 10 such seats at best). Otherwise Reform is probably the best way to effect change.
I speak as someone who has never voted Labour or Libdem and has always voted Tory (other than for John ERM fiasco Majorâs second election or in the EU elections where Farageâs was the Top Party Twice. No reason Reform could not be the top party at this election – other than the many always have always will X voters. The UK, after Cameron, May, Boris, Sunak⊠needs even more Net Zero, tax to death, anti-growth, regulate to death, align more with the EU, socialist insanity from Kier Starmer, Rayner, Reeves, Lammy, Philipson, Cooper-Balls, Ed Milliband⊠like it needs a hole in the head.
Wes Streeting is perhaps the only one who ever says anything half sensible usually about the dire NHS.
June 24, 2024
LL
No, the Tory party needs culling. Full stop. If there Tories defect is their only option.
June 24, 2024
So let’s be business-like about it and try and sort it out!
The only way to try and sort it out is to try and attract higher quality MPs into Parliament with proper business experience. Unlike Penny Mordaunt, who’s a possible candidate for next Tory Leader, who might only just make becoming your local small-town bank manager.
And the Tory Party has to work with the churches, media, educators and people in the arts to restore cultural Conservative values like family values, work ethic, personal responsibility, patriotism etc in the population. Otherwise the policies and politics of hard-working, intelligent Tory ministers is largely wasted.
And then immigration will plummet. Taxes will plummet. And personal choice and freedom will take off.
We need to discuss all this at next Tory Conference – and as a priority.
But it is not a priority and does not get discussed. And so we continue with the same old, same old … mediocre, at best, stuff.
June 24, 2024
@Peter; If right-wing voters want a right wing govt they still have nowhere else to go other than vote Conservative, the idea that Reform are somehow going to break-through is with the political fairies down the garden path!
As for One Nation vs Reform, the only faction that is certain of destruction is Reform, although they may very well take the One Nation group with them, leaving the LibDems to be the official opposition, the SNP as the Third party. The consolation prize; Farage and co. will be back in the EP as MEPs…
June 24, 2024
Jerry,
It depends on what timescale you are looking at. If the Conservative party were to disappear it would create a vacuum, which a party like Reform would hope to build on.
Lib Dems and Labour are not sufficiently different to provide an opposition.
Your line of thinking is similar to what One Nation/Gaukite/Mathew Parris types hope will happen. They may be disappointed though.
There is always somewhere else to go. Taking your voters for granted is how the present Conservative party has haemorrhaged support.
June 24, 2024
@Peter; But to destroy the Conservative party Reform will likely destroy its-self too, both are to dependent on the voters both have already driving away. The vacuum you talk of is already present, the current Conservative party has been hemorrhaging support since Brexit and the Johnson era, were do you think those who supported the likes of Ken Clarke, Dominic Grieve, Rory Stewart et a. have gone, they’ll not be sitting on their hands, even if one hand is holding their nose whilst the other marks the ballot paper.
June 24, 2024
Jerry,
I don’t really follow that line of reasoning. There is a massive ‘centre ground’ that the people you mention can move around in. Look at David Gauke – he now writes for both the New Statesman and Conservative Home. His ‘I told you so’ message is not much different in either publication.
The real vacuum I am talking about is the traditional Conservative vote – the one that won Johnson an 80 seat majority. Once Boris was in power he ignored the voters that put him there. They are the people who are getting no recognition at all from the major parties.
These folk got BRINO not Brexit, massive immigration and higher taxes. Cameron thought they had nowhere else to go. We will see on July 4th.
June 24, 2024
@Peter; The 2019 election was anything but the “traditional Conservative vote”!
Boris Johnson effectively made that election a second Brexit referendum, hence the landslide, with a massive switch from Labour to Conservative. I agree that we got BRINO -of sorts. The daft thing is, had Corbyn been allowed to stand the Labour party on a fundamental Brexit ticket in 2019 -and won, he would have delivered the far more pure Brexit you seem to want, just as Foot would have in 1983, but both would have taxed the living daylights out of you to fund it! Brexit was never a free lunch, and the more clean the break with the EU, Breakfast nor dinner come cheap either.
The traditional Conservative vote ended with Mrs May’s tenure, those MP’s unwilling to toe the line under Johnson were first criticized (even though many were representing Remain areas) and then deigned a constituency in 2019. What you appear to be calling traditional conservatism is actually the alt-right, which goes beyond “new-right” (Thatcherism) thinking, never mind One Nation / Powellism.
By the way, which party is David Gauke standing for, which constituency can vote for him?
June 24, 2024
There is no longer a true Conservative Party but a Sicial Democrat rump under the guise of One Nation.
The only choice the sensible right of the country have is Reform
Who’d have thought you could have made such a mess of an 80 seat majority.
June 24, 2024
The Daily Mail offers a list of where voters may vote Tory to reduce the Labour majority. It doesn’t offer one where they may vote Reform to do the same.
Let’s go for it. Zero Tory MPs – we may as well. They might finally get the message. They have no god given right to form an opposition. They forfeited that right with the mass immigration that we told them explicitly not to do.
June 24, 2024
Paula,
Agreed.
Destroying Tory party will also a send a clear message to Labour and Lie Dems.
June 24, 2024
‘Same old…….’ Quite. Is there a difference between the the Labour and Conservative Parliamentary Parties worth mentioning? Hardly. Sir J. we want to vote for a conservative government, which has policies that WILL improve the Nation and WILL carry them out. Labour and Conservative don’t offer them.
We need to not only rid ourselves of a corrupted Parliamentary Conservative Party, but also it’s HQ management. No doubt there are a few good people, and these will find a place. Once the vacuum is created then it should, hopefully, be filled with natural, genuine, decent conservative people.
Please note difference between C and c.
June 24, 2024
Spot on. Take the medicine and things will improve – the Tories are now at least as bad if not worse than Labour. No Labour PM would have forced Zelensky (worth ÂŁ1.8 BILLION now) to reject a very advantageous peace treaty. Johnson, to his and Tory Party and Britains shame – did. It was a crime!
June 24, 2024
Having been accused of supporting Putin by answering a BBC question about his previous view that the EU and Nato expansion to the Russian border would lead to war, Nigel Farage has found a statement by Boris Johnson saying exactly the same thing.
June 24, 2024
@Peter Woods, I thing you mean decent _Tories_, not conservatives, you are clearly batting for anything but the accepted definition of One-nation conservatism!
June 24, 2024
Jerry
Plainly, one nation Conservatism is now producing a huge forthcoming election failure.
We currently have a moderate centre style Conservative party.
High tax, high immigration, high borrowing, pro EU etc and it isn’t giving the popularity you say brings success.
June 24, 2024
@Sam; You seem to think people vote the direct opposite to what they actually want, they don’t, if they vote for Labour party policies it will be because they went Labour party polices!
Perhaps if the Conservative party were currently a little more “One Nation” they would now be level pegging with the Labour party (and those High tax, high immigration, high borrowing, pro EU, Welfare State polices etc etc etc), not 21 pints behind, not facing the prospect of a massive election grubbing at the hands of Labour, in just 10 days time. Whatever.
June 25, 2024
Jerry.
You therefore need to tell us, are the Conservatives too left of centre or too right of centre in your opinion.
June 25, 2024
I’m amazed how you know how and why everyone is voting Jerry.
I reckon many are simply voting against the current Conservative Government rather than for policies offered by other parties.
But of course I don’t have your remarkable insight.
June 26, 2024
@Sam; I’ve been doing just that for the last five weeks, try actually reading my comments, duh!
@MiB; “I reckon many are simply voting against the current Conservative Government rather than for policies offered by other parties.”
Nonsense, if they don’t want to vote Conservative and disagree with other parties polices they can abstain or spoil their ballot papers, there is no compulsory voting here in the UK (which “Bristol” did you say you live in?…). If someone votes for another party, at the very minimum, they find their policies an acceptable compromise.
As for knowing what others think, I know nothing more than anyone else (if they care to look), my interpretation is also nothing anyone else is doing, just that we might come to different conclusions. Unlike you Martin I do not allow myself to be spoon feed by party propaganda nor by the partisan news-stand Daily Maulings.
June 26, 2024
Jerry
No need to be rude with your “duh”
I was only asking.
I was asking because your comments seem to want the Conservatives to be more centers and one nation.
Therefore I still haven’t had an answer to if you think they are left or right of centre
June 26, 2024
I’m not spoon fed Jerry
Any more than you are.
Try and be a bit more relaxed and pleasant in your responses.
People have different opinions to you and describing them as nonsense is unhelpful.
June 24, 2024
I think the outcome is unpredictable although the odds currently favour Labour. The old saying that a week is a long time in politics applies even more so during GE campaigns – as May discovered. Polls are snapshots at a point in time, not predictions. There are many boundary changes since the last election. Many voters do not make up their mind until the last few days or minutes. Differential turnout caused by complacency (Labour voters) or reluctance (Conservative voters) or enthusiasm (the rest) could cause unexpected results. The presence of Reform and attention grabbed by Nigel Farage adds to the uncertainty. The UK electorate has the capacity to surprise. I doubt it has changed.
June 24, 2024
One thing that is predictable, the greens will be lucky to return one MP, but both the tories & labour will fully adopt their policies ….with no mandate from the people
June 24, 2024
Correct Labour, Conservatives, Green, Plaid and SNP, the Dire BBC, team world all full of the Net Zero lunacy.
As to the odds 1/33 for Starmer circa a 97% âcertaintyâ. Sunak perhaps 2% chance and even that look optimistic to me. Might well not even retain his seat with its huge majority.
June 24, 2024
BBC reporting – A massive factory fire that began after lithium batteries exploded has killed several workers in South Korea.
June 24, 2024
There’s more –
‘Emergency services issue Linwood fire update as crews continue to battle massive battery blaze’
https://www.glasgowlive.co.uk/news/glasgow-news/emergency-services-issue-linwood-fire-29411289
June 24, 2024
Absolutely. Iâm hoping that if enough people vote Reform, it will have the same consequence – that the two main parties will have to listen. Net zero carbon AND net zero immigration would be a vote winner.
June 24, 2024
The WEF won’t return any Candidates, they’re not even on the ballot paper. But it’s their policies which will be implemented.
Can’t think why?
June 24, 2024
The NET-ZERO wonât return any Candidates, theyâre not even on the ballot paper. But itâs their policies which will be implemented …..and their leaders are numerous, in every quango, school, university, both leading parties, the civil service and local government
June 24, 2024
I dont know how it will go either.
As a lifelong Conservative voter, I had decided to vote Reform. Shortly after that, Nigel Farage said a couple of things I disagreed with, one being that Rishi Sunak didnt care about the D Day veterans. I think Farage knew this was not true, but this made this comment just to get votes. I despise that kind if thing. Also his remarks about Ukraine.
After careful thought, I have now decided to vote Conservative. I could never vote Labour, as I donât trust them at all.
June 24, 2024
If you vote Conservative, you endorse the wet, centre ground, high taxing uselessness of the current party. If you vote Reform youâre letting them know itâs not okay.
Labour and Tories are spending the whole campaign lying about each other and sniping at each other – and youâre bothered by Nigel making a bit of political capital out of a mistake by Sunak. Some Tories criticised Sunak for leaving early too. Not because they have a toss about the dead, but because it âlooked badâ. The whole bunch are utterly despicable.
June 24, 2024
Mike
Have to agree with your comment the present Conservative Party are not conservative at all so absolutely no point in voting for them if you want conservative policies
June 24, 2024
Girl, swayed by a little niggle of a gust of wind? He’s hardly the first to understand Putin, and the other comment was borne out by actions.
June 24, 2024
Very sensible. Itâs going to be a Conservative govt or a Labour one. A Conservative one would be better.
June 24, 2024
Farage was hardly alone in criticising Sunak for D-Day (see all the press, and politicians across the entire spectrum), and Sunak himself admitted he made the wrong decision. Nor is he exactly alone in his long held opinion that the West poked a stick at the Russian bear over Ukraine: Boris Johnson is among those who publicly expressed a similar view in the past, along with articles in the Guardian by left leaning journalists.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-ukraine-russia-brexit-b2024817.html
June 24, 2024
Farage didnât say that the encroachment of NATO & the EU towards the Russia borders would lead to the invasion of the Ukraine. He said that Putin would use that argument to justify to his own people, his decision to invade the Ukraine âŠtwo completely different things
June 24, 2024
Correct. Deliberate msm and uni party lies and spin.
June 24, 2024
In that case Farage was wrong.
June 24, 2024
C C
Suggest you actually listen to Nigel Farageâs actual words he used during his interview
Rather than what has been reported he said, which has A very big difference in meaning
June 24, 2024
There will be a very quick count ⊠oneâŠ.
Thatâs it! đđ€Ł
June 24, 2024
Farage has done his cause no good with his comments on how the West forced the war criminal Putin to invade Ukraine.
The Conservative party has done itself no good, by showing the electorate – once again – how there is one rule for them and one rule for Sunak’s private secretary and the other gamblers.
Labour are going to win this election with a historic majority, because millions of green Conservative voters are going to vote for them.
You can put as much spin on the MRP polls as you please, but Sunak’s espousal of the anti-net zero, climate crisis denying, pro-fossil fuel policy has cost him the election. And all because the Tories held Johnson’s Uxbridge and S Ruislip constituency by a few hundred votes over the ULEZ issue
June 24, 2024
Thatâs true
That isnât true. The reasons Labour are going to win big are:
1) Our rigged first past the post voting system
2) 40% of usual Tory voters are going to vote for Reform
3) 20% of usual Tory voters are not going to bother to vote
Labour will win big on a quite low share of the vote.
June 24, 2024
I suspect that Labour’s madcap push of infeasible net zero policies that will cost households a fortune is a major reason why their vote continues to slide in the polls, while Reform’s clear opposition to net zero probably helps explain their rising polling numbers.
June 24, 2024
Watch the bounce – the people donât want to go to War with Russia. You are like Sunak, invariably wrong.
If they start conscripting you would be the first to squeal.
June 24, 2024
‘Farage has done his cause no good with his comments on how the West forced the war criminal Putin to invade Ukraine.’
So you read the Daily Mail, SG?
June 24, 2024
“Farage has done his cause no good with his comments on how the West forced the war criminal Putin to invade Ukraine.”
Dreadful if he actually said that – but he did not!
As usual you spout – cobblers.
June 24, 2024
Labour will win with a landslide. That result was baked-in a long time ago thanks to the Not-a-Conservative Party’s treachery and Sunak’s appalling performance. I don’t see a way to stop it under the unrepresentative FPTP electoral system. It will produce what the Establishment intends it to produce: a majority Government based on a minority of votes.
As far as the Establishment is concerned, the only “failure” will be the lack of a large “Official Opposition” since a large and growing minority, who don’t want a pretendy-Opposition from the Westminster-Uni-Party, are refusing to vote for one.
As I’ve said before, the Westminster Uni-Party is like a three-legged stool and that makes it very stable. It is intended to entrench the Establishment’s power: you can vote for any party you like, but you’ll get the same policies (and they won’t be the ones you voted for, they’ll be the policies the UN/WEF want).
But break one of the legs and it CAN’T stand. It seems a large minority of voters, roughly 18/19%, now understand that it is necessary to break a leg if they don’t want to be CONNED again.
June 24, 2024
Hereâs a novel idea. Voters actually know what they are doing.
Like any great general voters online have all come to an agreement that first they destroy the army of Conservatives then they destroy the army of Labour.
You really should spend more time reading comments online.
June 24, 2024
Sir
I get the impression this election is fast moving and the “latest polls” are always out of date.
From what I have read, the momentum is with Reform, but the election might come too soon for it. This may be one reason why Sunak called the election so soon.
There seems to be no enthusiasm for either Starmer or Sunak as leaders. Farage seems to be more popular …. but maybe voters wonder if Reform currently has the necessary infrastructure.
I think it highly unlikely that the voters will trust the Conservatives with another term and therefore they have a couple of weeks to decide what sort of “change” they want.
June 24, 2024
Who trusts the ‘infrastructure’ behind those two parties anymore?
That is the root of the problem – a root and branch pruning required.
June 24, 2024
Reuters was reporting over the weekend that Putin has used diplomatic channels to offer negotiations with the Americans over nuclear weapons. Nuclear negotiations are the carrot, the stick is that they want Ukraine and the security of Europe to be on the agenda. The Russians still hope that Trump will win the November election.
The Russians are trying to split NATO and the USA from supporting Ukraine. They recall Chamberlain’s sell-out of Czechoslovakia in 1938 as the Halifax faction demanded appeasement.
By all means open negotiations with the war criminal Putin. But Ukraine must be present for the discussions, or there is the risk of another sell-out
June 24, 2024
Ukraine is quite a mish-mash of different people: I witnessed the divides visiting Kiev in Soviet times. They cannot be adequately represented by Zelensky, who is only popular with some of them. They all need representation if a stable outcome is to result.
June 24, 2024
“Do you want this out turn or can you see a way to stop it? What do you think all those undecideds will do?”
I don’t want this out turn, but as you say, sometimes you have to vote for something that is less than perfect. This is the election to do it, by breaking the Conservative Party. They are not conservative.
In the next 5 years we get a Labour super majority that will damage the country a bit faster than the “Conservative” Party, and after that we’ll see what happens when everyone is fed up with Labour. Hopefully Reform will have grown its support and proved to be an effective opposition voice.
I think many undecideds will not bother voting or vote Reform for a change. In my family, some have plumped for the Liberals, because she’s not a Tory and a friend of theirs met once their candidate and said she was “nice”. As a woman, she ticks that box (the other candidates are women, too). Never mind her Party has policies that will punish my family members. The election literature is colourful, and promises motherhood and apple pie. I despair but have to hold my tongue.
June 24, 2024
The British Army is planning the biggest mobilisation exercise of Britain’s Army reserve in 20 years, in a move to evaluate the deployment readiness of more than 10,000 Army reservists who have recently left the Army
Senior officers at Army HQ in Andover will co-ordinate the call-up, set for September, with the aim of determining how many reservists would be prepared to volunteer to mobilise if needed in a time of crisis.
Over the weekend France has also quietly initiated a similar exercise, though in their case they are concerned about unrest in their Xxxxxx population should the far-right win their forthcoming election
June 24, 2024
Funny that. Andrew Bridgen, in a recent, very lengthy interview, on the Resistance Podcast (available on YouTube) said we are already at war with Russia …. it just hasn’t been announced …… and we will be properly at war in the autumn. That’s why Sunak has gone early; he doesn’t want to be a war-time leader.
June 24, 2024
Or has Sunak gone early as he is not a peace time leader either?
If there is a move to war, better that Farage is in charge given Russian responses to his recent remarks.
June 24, 2024
So did Ian Duncan Smith, in the Telegraph.
June 24, 2024
He does not want to be the leader when a war is lost. Itâs lost, thatâs why he is literally running for the door.
June 24, 2024
With the level of unpoliced demonstrations on our streets I wouldn’t be surprised if the Army isn’t concerned that it will be called out for similar reasons to the French. The question becomes whose side would it be on.
June 24, 2024
Macron has said in terms that no French involvement in the War with Russia is contentemplated. đ€Ł
June 25, 2024
@ Lynn Atkinson
Absolute rubbish. Macron has repeatedly mooted the idea of French troops being sent to Ukraine. He first suggested this in October 2023 and did so again in February 2024
This war is far to serious for people who know nothing about the history of Western support for Ukraine to spout crap like this.
June 24, 2024
âWhat do you think all those undecideds will do?â
I think a heavy majority of them will vote for Reform. I believe they will simply feel unable to vote for a party whose performance over 14 years in government has been so abysmal (to put it mildly).
June 24, 2024
I pray for a surprise. In fact a profound shock. If we continue with either a Labour or Conservative government then the UK is indeed doomed.
The last poll I saw I saw showed Conservative vote falling, Labour falling and Reform rising. It looks almost certain that Nigel Farage will have a seat in Parliament with a good majority.
Ten Reform MP’s will be more opposition to Labour than any number of so called Conservatives.
June 25, 2024
Exactly right with your last point.
June 24, 2024
First of all we need change we cannot go on with the same just because the Conservatives have an inbuilt majority – it was an inbuilt majority in England that dragged the rest of the regions out of the EU – not the best result. Secondly we need change on how we conduct our politics – the system we have is medieval and hardly democratic in this day – but will turkeys vote for Christmas?
June 24, 2024
I agree with our good host that opinion polls can often be wrong, but Labour are so far ahead that the outcome of this election is not in doubt. Whether their majority is 100, 200 or 300 will not affect the way they govern. We can expect a continuation of the same major policies as under the Tories: mass migration, aggressive foreign policy towards America’s enemies, and Green-influenced energy policy. The good things Labour are dangling before the electorate – more teachers, more hospitals, more spending on social care – we will be told are unaffordable or at least unachievable before the next election in 2029.
The only remaining question of any interest in this election is who is going to come second in terms of the popular vote. Since the campaign began, the Conservatives have been losing ground to Reform. I suspect that in England the trend is even stronger than revealed in nationwide opinion polls, which include percentages for Plaid Cymru and the SNP. It would be interesting to see what polls say just for England, where the great majority of the population and parliamentary seats are.
June 24, 2024
There is no point in lumping the 38% of people who might vote Conservative or Reform together since there is no perceived overlap in their policies, as has been demonstrated by the Conservatives over 14 years.
So when the Conservatives have repeatedly lied to us about immigration, over successive governments, have continuously tried to frustrate Brexit, have unnecessarily imposed one of the harshest lockdowns resulting in criminal prosecutions of over 29,000 people, and have also imposed one of the the highest taxation regimes in living memory, the Party has singled itself out for electoral punishment by the electorate. They have no-one else to blame, certainly not the Reform Party.
June 24, 2024
Nobody knows how everyone else will vote, resulting in not knowing themselves what is best to do. Those choosing to vote tactically have even more difficulty in deciding what will achieve the effect they prefer.
Perhaps many âConservativeâ MPs, even in âsafe seatsâ favour Reform, but keep their choices open until deciding to switch after the election.
The Reform party could become the main opposition, or might even be the majority to form a government. The UNEXPECTED happens only because it is unexpected.
Reform currently have higher conservative values than the current party bearing that name.
In some ways, it could be easy for Farage to become Conservative PM even if he lost Clacton.
He might have pre-arranged with a fellow plotter to stand down if needed soon after the election.
That would trigger a by-election. He could then stand there as a Reform, or accepted Conservative MP candidate.
Controlling matters after the election in known circumstances, in tune with resulting Conservative and Reform winners could enable him to be their party leader in parliament.
June 24, 2024
Bloke – check out https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
I took a look at tactical voting but they just suggest you vote for Labour (is that the Vorderman outfit – if so it really needs looking at).
My seat is 97% likely to be Labour, it says. It’s a new seat merged from a previous half-Labour, half-Conservative seat. I might vote for Reform if the seats lost anyway.
I was very annoyed with my last Tory MP putting Sunak in place. I knew he’d be the disaster he is for the overall party, the new corporation tax he lined up for Labour to save them a job, the dividend tax punishments, the predicated turnout of only 67%! People need to wake up and make their vote, even if it’s just a protest vote. I won’t vote for someone sending kids into national service, either. Have Labour/Lib Dem been even asked about this proposal if, as I suspect, it’s just an EU-led proposal, as someone on another thread pointed me to check, and France and Germany are proposing it too.
June 24, 2024
I thank you for helpful guidance a-tracy, for me to be aware and assess.
June 25, 2024
You can also look at electionpolling.co.uk
Overall it gives Lab 386, Con 186, LD 36, SNP 18, PC 3, Green 1, Ref 0.
electoralcalculus has Lab 457, Con 76, LD 66, SNP 22, PC 4, Ref 3, Green 2
YouGov has Lab 425, Con 108, LD 67, SNP 20, Ref 5, PC 4, Green 1
All those polls over the 15-19/06 time period.
June 25, 2024
Amanda:
The data on the electionpolling site are immense, predicting individual candidate votes received to within a single 1 vote!
Reliability in accuracy tends to increase when those predicting track each DECISION-TAKERâS motivation: the individual Voter.
Supermarket loyalty cards capture a wealth of info to know which products their individual shoppers will choose and buy at what price. As data build, their computer programme can work out each personâs number of children, ages, income levels, holiday destinations, alcohol intake, car, pets, and much more.
If those data were combined with electionpolling data, they would be likely to predict accurately where each voter will place their cross on 4 July before the person holding the stubby blue pencil knew themselves!
June 26, 2024
I’m only interested in my seat, which I can affect.
June 25, 2024
a-tracy:
Of the total votes cast in 2024:
17.8% for Reform = 3 seats
19.9% for Conservative = 76 seats
That is an odd prediction.
If it is right, either the Boundary Commission is daft or hundreds of Returning Officers might be accused of reading out drunk and disorderly lists on 4 July.
June 24, 2024
“The latest polls show around 41% wanting Labour, down on the start of the campaign. 38% want Conservative or Reform.”
Well if one is going to combine parties on their ideologies; as I pointed out yesterday Sir John, a cohort of the left shows a 62% lead. The truth though is the Conservatives are polling c. 20%; Ref 17%; Lab 41%; LD 11%; Green 6%; SNP 3%; PC 1%. Some polls suggest Reform are a wasted vote, with zero MP, despite their 17%.
“I find this election difficult to call. If the polls are right the U.K. will suffer from a Labour government a majority do not want”
Even less want a Conservative, never mind Reform, govt though; “ConForm” is not on the ballot, yet.
People need to start asking why, not crying into their morning cornflakes! I think we both know this election has been very easy to call from the outset, what with all the boundary changes, I know my own Conservative candidate looks to be having a tough time.
June 24, 2024
You can now get 7/1 for zero Reform MPs. Where’s your insider gambling instinct?
June 24, 2024
I know the answer so can I have a bet, or will I be âinsider tradingâ like the desperate, poor, unprincipled people from Conservative Central Office?
June 24, 2024
Well it looks as though it pans out with Labour in charge, continuing the work on several fronts of the past 14 years.
The real question is-what happens when people realise that they’ve just voted for the same thing with bells and whistles attached?
Without a viable and real opposition -not just from the previous socialist lot- the charabanc will continue. That’s why Farage’s point is correct. Vote Reform for a real opposition, not a phony and split one.
June 24, 2024
Voters have a difficult choice for the reasons mentioned.
There will always be plenty of unionised people who will only ever vote labour, plus they have all the voters they imported – That needs to be addressed.
Nobody wants the status quo. The Tories have failed us. We can only rely on Labour to make things worse, so no rational voter wants them either and they must be defeated.
A lot of people have been put off voting because the big 3 follow all the same rules and ideology…. But I’m hoping that these people will use their vote to give us a brand new Parliament.
We can defeat Labour if we have a massive voter turnout, If they all vote for none of the big 3.
June 24, 2024
Following on with the logic of your question, Sir John, do I want a larger Conservative party with the same people and policies as now? No. So I’ll vote Reform.
June 24, 2024
If we could vote to get rid of the entrenched governing block – quangos, civil servants, supreme court, Bank of England, woke University lecturers- then we could really influence what is happening.
Labour’s long march through the institutions now means that we will always be ruled by socialists.
I don’t want a “conservative” govt nor a labour one.
I’ll vote for who I think is best, and if they don’t get enough votes for a seta, maybe they’ll get enough votes to encourage them to keep going.
June 24, 2024
anyone who does not want a Labour govt needs to vote Conservative. I note the writer Peter Hitchens, who has spent 20 years saying how âuselessâ the Tory party is and how it should be destroyed now suggests people do in fact vote Conservative as the most effective way of preventing a Starmer govt, which he recognises (as most people do not) will be far more left wing and damaging than Labour are letting on.
People need to come to their senses, only voting Conservative stops Labour. In the unlikely event Farage is elected to Parliament at his 8th attempt he has no chance of commanding anything other than a rump vote on the right, should he by some bizarre twist become leader of Conservative-Reform. He is far too divisive a figure to get a majority in the Country. and as we see from his absurd and ignorant remarks on Ukraine, he would wither under proper scrutiny were he really a serious contender for PM.
June 24, 2024
Nope.
June 24, 2024
Richard1 – what has Farage actually said about the current war in the UKraine, has he said he would pull out British support? Has he said something will change with the UKs current position? He can’t turn back the clock, what he warned of ten years ago has already come to fruition, being right doesn’t change history. What change is going to occur?
June 25, 2024
Indeed he said it before we went to war with GADAFFI, before Russia invaded Crimea, before Russia invaded Ukraine, looks like poking the Russian Bear has worked out as he suggested at the time.
June 24, 2024
Farage pointed out the plain truth. By encouraging Ukraine to join NATO, as it did, NATO provoked Russia. It added to that by stuffing Ukraine full of advanced weaponry and training Ukrainians in how to use it.
There was absolutely no reason, in terms of Britain, America or Europe’s security interests, to act in this way.
Farage wasn’t saying Russia was justified, merely pointing out that it was provoked, and as he says, that NATO therefore contributed to what happened. What’s more, he pointed out the risk of war years ago, so he’s not being wise after the event.
You might approve of Russia’s actions, or take a very dim view of Russia as Farage does, but that doesn’t alter the facts. Only a sadly ill-informed person would deny them.
June 24, 2024
Not so. Putin ordered murders on the streets of the UK as far back as 2006 (technically an act of war). He attacked Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014, unfortunately with no response from the West. To regard NATO as an aggressive threat is preposterous. Finland has joined recently – and Putin has withdrawn 80% of his forces from that border since. Would he do that if he really thought NATO was a threat? These comments from Farage have been ignorant and foolish.
June 24, 2024
Putin did not ‘attack Georgia’, Richard1. A 2009 investigative report by the EU concluded that the war was started by the Georgian army, which attacked ethnic Russians living in the semi-autonomous border regions South Ossetia and Abzkhazia. These were supposed to be protected by internationally recognised joint Georgian and Russian peace-keeping troops, but the Georgian leader Sakashvili, ‘acting in the heat of the moment’, unleashed a heavy artillery barrage on the population of those regions. The Russians only responded 12 hours later.
Not my words. but those of a fact-finding mission of 20 or more political, military, human rights and international law experts, led by a Swiss diplomat.
You might perhaps want to consider how you came to be informed differently.
June 24, 2024
Whether Putin was actually provoked or not, he was handed an easy argument to put to his own people and to the world, and that is what Nigel was saying back then.
The obvious smear campaign is gathering momentum as a last desperate scream of confected outrage.
June 24, 2024
Exactly, Hat man.
June 24, 2024
Richard, let me try and put this to you as gently as possible: I’m really, really sorry, honestly I am, but I’m afraid there is going to be a Labour government. I know it sounds awful, but we are going to have that man Starmer as prime minister as from July 5. We don’t like it, but we might as well get used to the idea now, rather than it coming as a shock when it happens.
This means it doesn’t matter how you or I vote, as to who will govern the country. We can always vote if we like for our local Conservative candidates, who might possibly get in, and then be one of the small-ish band of mainly useless Tory Head Office-approved clones left standing after the election. But what good will that do? I don’t think it will form any sort of effective opposition on the issues that matter to me. But I know of somebody who will, and I’m voting for his party.
June 24, 2024
Itâs crystal clear a Starmer led Labour government could not be trusted on anything. Starmer stabbed Corbyn in the back and has backtracked on many issues. He talks about his father being working clsss and working in a factory as a tool maker but fails to mention his father owned the factory in Oxted, Surrey! He bangs on about âinvestigatingâ major crime gangs and terrorists but thatâs not the job of the DPP. The DPP is a prosecuting agency not an investigating agency. Conservatives under Sunak look more credible but the damage done by Messrs Cameron, May and Johnson are so egregious itâs clear they will struggle to win. In short they have lost the Countryâs confidence. This leaves opportunities for smaller parties. Of these only Reform offer âConservativesâ with an opportunity to move away from the damage inflicted us through Liberalisation. Immigration presents the greatest challenge. I suspect Reform will do much better than predicted however the prospect of Labour winning this election fills me with foreboding.
June 24, 2024
38% do NOT want Conservative or Reform. We Reform voters want Reform. We do NOT want the Conservatives who have opened the door to unlimited migration and net zero nonsense, over and over again. We want the Conservatives destroyed. That is how to unite the right
Reply You May want reform but around 20% tell pollsters they want Conservative,
June 24, 2024
“If the polls are right the U.K. will suffer from a Labour government a majority do not want…”
Don’t we always get a government the majority doesn’t want? I can’t recall a recent election where the winning party got a majority of the votes.
Reply Yes, but it is a matter of degree. Parties do not normally win a majority with less than 42%
June 24, 2024
In a fragmented election it only takes around 33% of the vote to secure a majority. If Labour drop below that they would be in coalition. If Reform achieved that they would be in government. I’ve tried plugging in many different scenarios at Electoral Calculus, and while their model can never guess the final reality, the trends and switch points are likely roughly correct.
June 24, 2024
âI find this election difficult to call. If the polls are right the U.K. will suffer from a Labour government a majority do not want and an Opposition too small to make much impact.â
Yes, weâre going to need a strong opposition. Unfortunately this cannot be provided by the Conservative Party for any voter who wishes to see the end of mass immigration (legal and illegal), Net Zero de-industrialisation and power handed over to foreign entities, the Civil Service, quangos, comcoms, academia and the judiciary. Firstly because the One Nation Wets in the Conservative Party who support these policies have parachuted themselves into the safest seats and secondly because any attempt to oppose these policies in the next Parliament will be dismissed by Labour and the BBC as laughable bearing in mind the Conservative Partyâs record over the last 14 years in government.
June 24, 2024
Farage will find few friends in the Conservative Parliamentry Party because Reform have candidates standing against all those amenable to Reforms policies, and they will lose their seats because Reform split the vote.
It will be Remain Tories in Parliament.
It is hard to call this election because until Reform get to the inflection point where they actually win a lot of seats instead of âjust losing themâ or âtaking out the Tory candidateâ, we canât work out how many seats will fall to Lib Dems or Labour.
However, unbelievably, Reform are very close to or at and in some constituencies, past the inflection point. If disaffected Tories see they can win and vote for them, switching from a grudging vote for the âleast worst partyâ (although which that is is debatable), we might see real fireworks on 4th July.
Iâm staying up all night to watch the votes coming in as I always do. I have my key constituencies earmarked which will be trail-blazers, denoting the death of the fake Tories (yay!) and leaving space for a real, grown up Conservative Party, the life or death of Reform, the fate of Labour (one last hurrah?) Iâm praying that voters will punish and obliterate the Lib Dems for the two killer policies of reversing Brexit and net zero, and of course we want no more Green idiots anywhere at all, especially in the TV.
The current Conservative Party has been an unmitigated disaster. Unique vicious attack on freedom to earn you bread (lockdown which caused a huge spike in suicides); Net Zero; WWIII pending and we are on the losing side; economic calamity; immigration calamity; Horizon Calamity which is the first of many that will come to light) and much else. SACK THEM.
June 25, 2024
The way to decide it is to vote Reform. The more who do the better and more truly conservtive will be His Majesty’s Official Opposition. Half the Tories would actually support Labour and the Lib Dems, when freed from the responsibility of governing.
June 24, 2024
My crystal ball has a late swing back towards the not-a-Conservative party from ‘undecided’ voters holding their noses after being panicked by the ‘don’t vote for Tweedledee, get Tweedledum’ rhetoric. Reform voters will be disproportionately underrepresented in the HoC, leading to further cynicism and rejection of the political system. The countries’ spiral of decline towards the end of ‘Britain’ will be accelerated by the Uniparty.
June 24, 2024
Make no mistake, Reform in parliament will expose the lies and collusion of the uniparty and put under the spotlight the individuals plotting to bring our country to its knees.
Every vote for Reform counts.
June 24, 2024
Even if Reform get a few votes, the “Blob” will freeze them out if they try to scrutinize.
June 24, 2024
I would be very surprised if it is only 50% of the conservative voters that feel let down by the present Tory government Sr John.
Those who continue to declare support for Sunak and Co are few and far between though some will vote Conservative no matter what injustice has been done to them.
Being locked up for months during a bit of a virous outbreak followed by mass guinea pig status as novel medical treatments are mandated and forced into the arms of people on threat of being excluded from society if they object. That along with, the highest spending ever in peace time, followed by the highest taxation in peace time plush the most expensive energy costs and highest inflation in modern history are not the best achievements for any government.
We can ignore multiple PMs the squandering of an 80 seat majority the failure to get a proper settlement following leaving the EU and a record open door migration policy that brought ver i million new residents to our overcrowded island last year and the year before.
Who exactly are the people that will be voting for more of that disaster? Who out there imagines voting Sunak will be anything other than a Stockholm syndrome inspired reaction? Vote for the existing incompetents as the other incompetents in Westminster that have us hostage are worse?
It is time for real government by people who believe in sovereignty and democracy. We have had enough of faux representation by people more wedded to woke than the constituents that expected so much and were given nothing.
Our roads are falling apart our landscape is blighted by ongoing forever HS2 construction, our shores are awash with chancers riding into our benefit system consuming our rescue services at sea and our social services on land.
All this goes on during a Tory administration and you imagine people will be voting for more???
June 24, 2024
Very interesting comment by the EUâs M. Barnier. There is no âaccess a la carteâ. So far we have heard Labour say they want sector deals with the EU on: chemicals; phytosanitary, financial services, carbon trading. Doubtless other sectors will be added. M Barnier says no such arrangements are possible unless free movement is included. He also reminds us of a clever device inserted into the agreement which Boris Johnson struck – electricity supply from the EU will be linked to the renewed fishing deal in 2026! i.e. the EU will threaten to cut off the U.K. from its interconnectors unless fishing is surrendered. Of course fishing (a tiny industry) will therefore be surrendered, especially as with Labourâs mad souped up net zero policy, electricity from the continent will be essential to keep the lights on.
M. barnier also helpfully reminds us how these negotiations will go: the EU will say âhere is the rule book for sector [XYZ], write it into your law and agree that your laws will be updated in the future with any changes we may from time to time decide, with no scrutiny, debate or vote in the U.K.â
It really would make most sense in these circs for the Labour govt just to re-join the single market (accepting free movement of course). Given they are going to spend 8-9 years surreptitiously doing this de facto, they may as well get the confidence boost from the signal up front and have done with it.
(Any Brexit supporters who donât want to see this happen need of course to vote Conservative).
June 24, 2024
Richard1, the Labour party will sell us out and receive a very small concession that suits the EU anyway (something that we already give to them at the cost of our own citizens) at the cost to the UK of something massive like free Erasmus for all the EU no number restrictions.
People are just being taken for mugs and will get mugged.
June 24, 2024
Perhaps. Anyone who thinks that better vote Conservative to stop it.
June 24, 2024
The EU is in its death throes. There will be nothing to return to very shortly.
June 24, 2024
The EU will not exist in a few years, as soon as NATO and the USA fall the Globalists cannot live off the thin gruel of the EU alone, so it will fall – amazing considering the safe hands of âUrsula and Kayaâ đ€Ż
Donât worry about the EU. To join the âSingle Marketâ (which is the EU) we have to accept the Euro. Not going to happen.
You DONâT HAVE TO VOTE CONSERVATIVE to avoid the EU. Indeed itâs the âconservativesâ who conceded Brexit.
All Brexiteers need to sack the Conservatives, the destroyers of U.K. businesses, and jobs, of the health and integrity of the British nation.
Their crimes are so comprehensive and unforgivable that there is no question as to how NOT to vote.
June 24, 2024
Restoration of free movement from the EU would be a disaster. EU countries would be able to get rid of their unwanted Third-Worlders by simply granting them citizenship and then pointing out that they can now freely move to Britain where by law they must immediately be allowed the full range of benefits.
June 24, 2024
Politicians have systematically been destroying our country. They’ve been assisted by the media and the civil service. The aforementioned have become the enemy of the people.
I fear the people will revolt against the system and we’ll be an even more divided nation.
Politicians are concentrating on the wrong issues instead of taking care of the country.
The economy, the cost of living, defence, education, health, law and order etc should be what politicians concentrate on. A rainbow unicorn will never be the answer to the issues.
June 24, 2024
41% want labour. Where do the pollsters drag these people up from? Well they never ask me, though I’d probably tell them to get lost anyway.
Are they saying 41% of the electorate that drag themselves out of their houses will go and put an X next to the Labour candidate, delivering them a landslide?
What do they see in Keir Starmer? At least “Oh Jeremy Corbyn” had a cult following.
June 24, 2024
UK electorate are fed up with the lies and spin by the current Uni Party who obviously collude to ensure they don’t talk about the things that effect peoples daily lives. Like non-existent climate change science to prove CO2 is a bogy gas not just a trace gas that feeds all plant life on Earth. It appears a means to transfer our manufacturing and wealth to the developing Nations who produce more pollutants AND CO2 and then ship the inferior goods back here. Banning our ICE cars, boilers etc will bankrupt the Nation. I read yesterday that our EU agreement is up for renewal/renegotiation with the EU in 2025. Guess what? They are going to offer electricity supply/blackmail for our fish? Why haven’t the Tory’s pulled out their finger and got on with energy independence so we’re not held to ransom? Not stupid windmills. This is an obvious National Security issue as is the production of steal for our defence. Another sly and deliberate non action by the UNI Party as is the alignment of EU rules and refusal to remove its regulations. The Windsor agreement, mass legal and illegal immigration, inaction on welfare dependence, high taxes not cutting state etc. We don’t want what you have to offer Sir John so you will be removed in two goes by the unfair FPTP system. First the Tory’s replaced by Reform, then the NuLabour, replaced by Reform. It’ll take two elections or more direct action on the ground to align our politicos/establishment and msm with the people of this Country.
Reply You are talking I think about the Conservative offer, not my offer. Weâre I standing I would offer the policies to the economy, energy and migration I have set out here.
June 24, 2024
I’m sorry Sir John but you/we know that the whipping system means you either go along with the One Nation Tory’s policies or you stand as an independent. The Tory’s aren’t in any way conservative and we all know it. In the age of the internet your Party had your chance and blew it.
Reply I remember opposing lockdown rules, Windsor Framework and Ni Protocol. I remember refusing to vote for the first Hunt budget. I remember running for Parliament proposing an EU referendum before it was Conservative policy etc
June 24, 2024
But you and anyone like you is no longer a Conservative Candidate. So we can confidently vote against them now.
June 25, 2024
Correct. Most genuine Conservatives have been sidelined and every Constituency vacancy has had a Wet LibCON parachuted in. Looks like that isn’t going to work out too well for the Not-a-Conservative Party in ( named seats Ed) though, where the local Association opposed the imposition of a Sunak Wet and are now refusing to campaign for them. Both have gone from “safe” to highly vulnerable.
June 24, 2024
To resolve the dilemma of a labour super majority there are two options:-
(1) Tories to vote Reform, or
(2) Tories to adopt all of Reforms policies
June 24, 2024
What about the one nation Tories glen, those that don’t feel the current Tories are middle enough for them, the ones going to the Lib Dems without even knowing what their main policies are.
I’ve not even seen them interrogated because it suits the ‘Labour are coming’ program.
I’ve looked them up. They want to ‘change’ our country.
‘A local champion’ – I wonder how they’ll cope with Labour’s ‘Big bang in 1st 100 days’ to crack on with wiping away Nimby’s like them, pylons, onshore windfarms, new housing estates, new towns. They’ll just be whistling in the wind unable to stop the whirlwind coming.
‘A decent home somewhere safe and clean’ – ok where are they proposing to build them, how many, with what funds?
‘Every child can go to a good school’ – hold on aren’t most schools already good and above, haven’t we already risen up the world rankings in maths, science and reading. Are they going to close immediately the needs improvement schools? Where are the kids going to go.
‘Everyone can get the high-quality healthcare they need” HOW? Our needs and demands are growing yearly, ÂŁ700m extra per week and the NHS still can’t meet needs.
Business – they will join the ‘European Innovation Council’ how much will that cost, I thought Barnier said the UK can’t cherry pick? Ensure all UK standards match EU standards, which ones don’t what are they going to specifically do about those in what time frame? Create a local banking sector? How are they keeping on the RBS/Natwest as a nationalised bank? How will they unlock Britain’s businesses global potential if they want to realign back with the EU. Why aren’t any questions being asked? “Encourage employers to promote employee ownership by giving staff in listed companies with more than 250 employees a right to request shares, to be held in trust for the benefit of employees.” isn’t that already in place?
“Fix the broken Statutory Sick Pay system by:
Making it available to the more than one million workers earning less than ÂŁ123 a week, most of whom are women. Aligning the rate with the National Minimum Wage. Making payments available from the first day of missing work rather than the fourth. Supporting small employers with Statutory Sick Pay costs, consulting with them on the best way to do this.”
Currently, businesses, including people with 1 or 2 staff, pay for SSP and SSP holiday pay. The government does pay for it! It will need to be added to the rates of the products to give businesses sick pay insurance cover schemes, as claims will rocket. If a part-time worker on ÂŁ123, so that’s someone working only 10.75 hours per week, will be able to get the same money on the sick, how much will sick leave increase every time they need a week off or in the school holidays? It is a massively expensive policy, which is why it was put back on businesses to fund.
So is any of the Lib Dem policy different to Labour because I can’t see it.
June 24, 2024
The ‘worst’ has already happened.
Mass immigration at previously unimagined levels, women with penises, record taxes, Net Zero lunacy and dishonesty* and energy policies determined by judges.
* What is the point of closing down factories and outsourcing the muck to China then calling it a Net Zero win ?
50 Tory MPs maximum. That’s from my own poll in a Tory family.
June 24, 2024
…and the tories still think that closing down port talbort steel works is a good idea
June 24, 2024
âŠand Llanwerne, and Ravenscraig – all under orders from the EU. Who are these crawling feeble idiots and how have they the nerve even to ask for our votes?
June 24, 2024
+1 Paula.
June 24, 2024
+1 Paula
June 24, 2024
‘Some former Conservatives say they want [the] party to do badly to force change.’
Those saying that want it to move to the right, where the party wins elections, they do donât want it to move even more to the centre.âSo they do not just want it to do badly, they want Reform UK to do well to show the demand for conservative policies.âOtherwise, the wets will use the large losses and Labourâs win as evidence of demand for centralist policies.
You say this will give a large Labour majority and scant opposition.âPerhaps thatâs a good thing and will shorten Labourâs time in government.âThe Labour front bench lacks depth of talent and the Administrative State remains.âSure, daft policies will become law and harm the country for decades, evidenced by â97-â10.âBut Starmer hasnât subjugated the Left as well as Blair, and a large Labour majority will enhance their power to enact the more batty demands, even on top of Net Zero â30.âCould we see a Labour government quickly lose what little public support it had, and face strife from its internal Left and those public who arenât the mortgaged, metropolitan laptop-class.âWhereas a decent opposition might help Starmer by keeping Labour more sane.
Lord Ashcroftâs recent polling showed itâs not the manifesto policies which are the problem for the Tories, itâs the brand tainted by lack of delivery.âIt ends: âBut fractionally more agree that the Tories âneed a huge defeat so they get the messageââ. https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2024/06/its-not-the-tory-policies-people-dont-like-its-the-tory-party/
June 24, 2024
Despite you no longer being a Conservative MP. You continue to tell us don’t vote ‘Reform’ because it will give Labour a bigger majority. Well too bad. You had 14 years to govern succesfully and you failed miserably.
I can’t and won’t vote Tory or Labour, they are both the useless Uniparty. My vote WILL go to Reform.
In Mystic Meg persona; I predict the incoming Labour government will be in the same mess as the Tories currently are and by 2029, they will be voted out and a new centre-right party will have formed from the small amount of intelligent Conservatives and Reform.
Reply I wrote commentary, not a piece about how you should vote.
June 24, 2024
you are cutting off your nose to spite your face. of course Labour will be far worse
June 24, 2024
As a matter of fact and record Tory party worse on net stupid, deficit, debt, economy, taxation, immigration, NHS waiting lists, trans ideology for children of tender years! The record is clear, Tories had a 85 seat majority and could have delivered Brexit, it chose not to. It has watered down and prevented divergence from EU, subject to ECJ, introducing EU law instead of scrapping all of it and making our country more reliant on EU energy!
Tories could not have been worse. Get real.
June 24, 2024
Starmer will not take us to war with Russia or China. Thatâs a BIG improvement over the unelectable Sunac mob.
June 24, 2024
Even at this 11th hour- Sunak is still PM, is he not?
If he put Royal Navy boats in the Channel and âstopped the boatsâ – perhaps taking any women and children on board – and closed our borders to all immigration, today, he could save the Tory Party from annihilation. Th e thing people most value is leadership. It is why Maggie was popular with enough people to win elections. Look how she led when during the Falklands. After that she could do no wrong. Would you want Sunak captaining your team?
June 24, 2024
He only needs to push one boat back to France ….its shows intent, however like ECHRs, he doesn’t actually say he’d leave, just that he wouldn’t allow outside courts to interfer with UK decisions …..WEAK, his current intent is WEAK
June 24, 2024
Au contraire, his ‘current intent’ was always to filibuster his way to the election with tough talk but no action that would lose a single precious migrant. Remember the words of the UN Global Compact on Migration which they signed.
June 24, 2024
Not in the squad, let alone a reserve, but on the free transfer list!
June 24, 2024
Dear Mr. Redwood,
In the eyes of many right-wing voters, the Conservative party is, indeed, very far from perfect.
What is the point of voting for a Conservative party that, humour me here, happened to win the election and then resumed the very same policies that so many of its supporters reject. That is what many natural right-wing voters fear.
The Conservative party has become detached from its supporters and voters. Is the party not listening? Obviously not.
June 24, 2024
It is very well to state “I find this election difficult to call” but some of us wish to place bets and were relying on your prediction!
Enthusiasm for a Starmer-led government beyond core Labour supporters has never seemed more than slight. Labour lacks vision and in office will likely fail and soon disappoint. But rewarding the Conservatives for their treachery is an option many refuse to take. There may be less disenchantment ahead if Reform gets sufficient seats to make its presence felt in Parliament and I think voters may surprise to produce that outcome.
June 24, 2024
I was first to say (on this blog) that I did not think Sunak would hold Richmond. I told a friend that his wife would lose Tatton 3 years ago!
Shall I open a book? I know more than the functionaries who listen at keyholes in Nr 10.
June 24, 2024
“The most important takeaways are how 60% of the public do not want a Labour government”
The same can be said of this and previous Conservative governments as well.
June 24, 2024
PP – What % of the 2024 vote for Labour are you predicting?
“The 2019 General Election resulted in a Conservative victory. The party won 365 seats, 48 more than in 2017, and 43.6% of the vote, up from 42.3% in 2017. ”
The Labour Party won 202 seats and 32.1% of the vote, down from 262 seats and 40.0% of the vote in 2017.
The Liberal Democrats won 11 seats, one fewer than in 2017, and 11.5% of the vote, up from 7.4%.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8749/
June 24, 2024
I’m predicting that, yet again, the UK will end up with a “majority” government derived from a minority share of those who voted.
(However, I will not be wagering any money on that.)
June 24, 2024
Your predictions will come true Peter.
The way to get party elected with a majority of the popular vote is to have just two parties.
If you have the number of parties the UK has, it is predictable that the winner will not have more than 50% of total votes
June 24, 2024
The electorate try to impose 2 parties, there are 165 political parties in the U.K. last time I looked. You can see how well the electorate are doing. They are refusing a version of PR where you canât elect to sack a Government.
June 24, 2024
I am not sure about that. In a number of countries, there are elections with more (sometimes many more) than two parties/candidates and one (usually the âpresidentialâ party) gets scores in the 50+% (sometimes much higher) range (see Algeria, Bolivia, Russia, Singapore, Turkmenistan, Zimbabwe). Moreover your comment certainly does not apply at the UK constituency level. How would you explain Sir Johnâs series of 50% wins in successive elections with four or five other candidates. It also depends very much on the voting system. You might be partially right under FPTP, which implicitly constrains people to vote in one or the other box, but certainly not under any other more proportional voting system, which would give people a much wider (and possibly better) choice of whom to vote for.
June 25, 2024
Sam no, the way to get a party elected with around or more than 50% of the vote is for a party to come up with a sufficiently attractive manifesto and policy offers to appeal to that many voters.
Under FPTP, the parties know that they don’t have to win anywhere near a majority of the votes, so they don’t bother trying. Under FPTP, it’s about appealing to the right sets of voters in the marginal constituencies because the rest of us are irrelevant. The parties know this (and are complicit in maintaining the situation) and they admit this fact by how and where they choose to put their campaigning efforts, and where they choose not to bother.
June 24, 2024
There are currently many checks and balances to that supposed majority; the Lords have frustrated, delayed and stopped a lot of legislation without significant changes, and the Supreme Court has halted the government. Although I read that Labour want to do away with parts of the lords, if Labour go too far I wonder if the public will take direct action like the fuel tax strikes, farmers protests in the EU and student action when Blair put in tuition fees.
There is not much difference between the Liberal Democrats and Labour. This is why Reform would have been wiser to concentrate on the red wall, like the SNP concentrated in Scotland.
June 24, 2024
All very nicely observed but as usual the Tory party is innocent – and people deciding not to vote for it and for another more like what they want will cause problems.
The idea that Tories have failed cannot be understood.
How many times have we read that Mr Redwood didn’t like what his party was doing or not doing. His answer was he would stay with it and they would listen to him and change? Did they?
I wonder why Mr Redwood quit as MP. Maybe didn’t want to be defeated.
Reply I sought major changes to the governmentâs approach and had some successes in getting a change of policy and attitude. I will set out more of my reasons for not standing again after the election.
June 24, 2024
He wouldn’t have been defeated.
June 24, 2024
+1.
I will be fascinated to hear why JR decided not to be constrained by being an elected Conservative.
Iâm looking forward, after the election, to opinion rather than commentary.
I believe Bridgen will win. His electorate love him! They actually love him. If JR and Co set up a proper Conservative organisation he could be our first MP.
30 years ago and for 10 years Rodney and I ran twice yearly conferences in Oxford called âThe Campaign for Conservatismâ – we were ahead of our time then but maybe you could use that same idea JR?
June 24, 2024
Sir John
Using the phrase that was used in a different context, we have 2 +1 Presidential Candidates all suffering from a âWalter Mittyâ syndrome. How any of them got to become a âLeaderâ of anything is beyond comprehension.
As Sunak has made this an election for a President, how about it becoming an election for a President. Letâs have a ballot paper with just those 3 names on. Any of them not achieving 10% of support from all those that are on the electoral role should quit politics and find other avenues for their egos.
June 24, 2024
To a degree the fault line is Parliament, the House of Commons, to many have spent the last generation or more being just disciples of what they thought was a higher power elsewhere, they no longer understand their elected purpose. They now have no idea of the responsibilities of Democracy, of Government of Serving those that empower and pay them.
June 24, 2024
+1. Spot on. They need to be educated in the basics. Anybody failing the basic knowledge must be barred for standing – also anybody employed by any Party Machine.
June 24, 2024
There is no point in lumping the 38% of people who might vote Conservative or Reform together since there is no perceived overlap in their policies, as has been demonstrated by the Conservatives over 14 years.
So when the Conservatives have repeatedly and wilfully and unapologetically and wrongly claimed (I really can’t say it any stronger than that and still get my comment posted) that they would reduce immigration, only to do the exact opposite in spades, over successive governments. They have continuously tried to frustrate Brexit, have unnecessarily imposed one of the harshest lockdowns resulting in criminal prosecutions of over 29,000 people, and they have also imposed one of the the highest taxation regimes in living memory, the Party has singled itself out for electoral punishment by the electorate. And neither will the Conservative Party leave the ECHR (or clean up the woke madness in schools).
They have no-one to blame but their parliamentary members, certainly not the Reform Party.
June 24, 2024
“it will be an unhappy country if it sees an outsized Labour majority” Rishi Sunak and this version of a Conservative Government will be 100% responsible for that, asking people which version of Socialism do they want – is not choice.
The Conservative voter has been be-trade and deserted. All 3 parties are promising to raise more taxes, spend more of our money – pure Socialism. Not a single one has suggested creating an economy controlling expenditure. Meaning actually create the wealth need for a future – Conservatism. They are all promising to rob our future – Socialism.
June 24, 2024
Sir John
“The most important takeaways are how 60% of the public do not want a Labour government” But that is exactly what Sunak, Starmer and Davy are offering, promising even.
You can’t distance Sunak and this Government from Labour they have become the same thing, one has proven they are a Party of Tax & uncontrolled spending, with more actual confirmed as being in the pipeline, the other just skirting around possibilities that even without a track record they will probably following through on.
June 24, 2024
âUnpopular Partiesâ ? is their one that is popular, one that commands real majority support?
June 24, 2024
The OFFICIAL Monster Raving Loony Party 2024 manifest highlights
We are fighting this Election on the basis of CHANGE. LOOSE CHANGE as this is all weâll have left under a Labour/Conservative Government
V.A.TâŠ.We will get rid of VAT as it adds no value
Immigration..We will replace employees of the Border Force with GP receptionists. This will dramatically reduce the number of people getting in
NHSâŠIn an effort to reduce the problems faced by the NHS , it is proposed to reduce pregnancy from nine to seven months.
Foreign PolicyâŠOnce in Government, we will replace the Foreign Secretary with a British one
June 24, 2024
My favourites were:
Every general election we will introduce a ‘cooling-off period’ of about 3 years in case voters wish to change their minds.
Immigration, replace employees of Border Force with GP receptionists. This will dramatically reduce the number of people getting in.
June 25, 2024
It is an odd thing about the constitution that voters have no power whatsoever to call a general election. Really, they should have. The only people who do are those most likely to lose by having a general election. Hence we always have to endure months or years of tail end governments in office but no longer serving any useful purpose.
June 24, 2024
@glen cullen – it has amazed me over the years that the OFFICIAL Monster Raving Loony Party always had real policies that made sense. Unfortunately here in Wokingham the have not put up a candidate
June 24, 2024
I think many of those who are supposedly “undecided” had decided some time ago to vote Reform. Imho they are being shamed into not admitting it due to the media campaign against Reform (either through negative reporting or by ignoring them (OFCOM seems to prefer the “ignoring them” option)).
We had the same affect a few years ago when the BBC were “shaming” the Conservative Party (and are doing so again now).
The pollsters are not good at factoring in media propaganda and the “shy” affect.
I accept that voting Reform is likely to bring in a Labour government but we need to start somewhere on the road to a proper government. A short-lived unpopular Labour administration is the price to pay for our furture.
Vote Reform!
June 24, 2024
“two fifths want Labour and the two fifths of a Conservative nature”
Why are you lumping the Conservatives in with Reform ? Reform is a conservative party whilst the Conservatives are at best a centre-left Social Democrat party (high tax/spend, open borders, Net Zero etc.). So really you should say “three fifths want Blairite centre-left policies and one fifth want conservative policies via Reform”.
June 24, 2024
@Roy Grainger – my sentiments exactly, chalk and cheese between Reform and ‘this’ Conservative Government
June 24, 2024
People are not voting Tory because they have been seriously and repeatedly let down over 14 years of a Tory Government. Even now we have to suffer the disgrace of insider knowledge betting; shameful. The Conservatives are being hammered at the ballot box because thatâs what they deserve for their incompetence, lying, self serving and backstabbing. Instead of resolving this countryâs problems Sunak wanted to be seen as a world leader, he has no reality of life for the majority like many of the Taxpayer funded MPâs. Reform U.K. are a wake up vote and will give them 5 years to organise themselves for the 2029 General Election, meanwhile we will have to suffer 5 years of a huge Labour majority, this being festered by pathetic Tory MPâs not by the electorate as the Tories would have us believe.
June 24, 2024
I live in a constituency where the Conservatives did not win in 2019. So they will not get in this time. So it makes sense for me to vote for Reform, which best reflects my political views, hoping they become the challenger party next time.
The same would happen if I lived in a marginal constituency where the Conservatives would not win.
If I lived in a constituency where the Conservative majority was more than the second-place party vote, I would also vote for Reform. They are more likely to win the seat before one of the other parties comes through.
I would only consider tactically voting for the Conservatives where a switch to reform vote would genuinely let in another party. These are approximately the 100-250 safest Conservative seats.
Areas in the country where Reform have significant support (East and North of England) would also influence my vote towards them. The views and quality of individual Conservative candidates would move me towards voting for them.
June 24, 2024
The Parties as so many here mention have become a Uni-Party. A Universal One State Party without asking the Country and its People.
The biggest punitive punishment for the whole Country is that what we thought has the heart and seat of Democracy has been stolen from the very People we asked to serve us. A 5-year term was ego stealing democracy, 2-year terms are plenty long enough for any grouping to hold the reins of power before seeking confirmation and approval. What are they so afraid of? – Democracy
This Conservative Government and the HoC have fought and are fighting the People. We wouldnât be in this mess if they worked with the people.
June 24, 2024
The fact is we don’t want either party. You’re two cheeks of the same backside. Both parties actively work against the interests of the British people. The best thing possible is that the entire system collapses and something completely different rises from the ashes.
June 24, 2024
Farage has scuppered his chances as a result of his comments about the Ukraine war ; he was very foolish to do this . I have already sent my Postal Vote – and I have not changed my choice .
June 24, 2024
If anyone knows the truth about Ukraine it’s Farage. He’s only Donald Trump’s bosom buddy for god’s sake. That’s THE Donald Trump who I believe was once the POTUS.
If what Farage said encourages debate, critical analysis by all and the rejection of the now tedious narrative then that’s a positive for all concerned
You can only maintain the bullshit for so long
ps I do believe good old Boris Johnson was also labelled a ‘Putin apologist’. This slanderous politics is a cancer.
If anyone’s a true patriot it’s Farage.
June 24, 2024
When the body bags come home – itâs on your conscience!
June 24, 2024
My intuitive guess at what is happening amongst the electorate is as follows.
1. The Labour vote is flat lining.
2. The Conservative vote is split three ways. Those small in number who will vote conservative despite everything. A large number who cannot decide or who will abstain in disgust. A growing number who are opting to vote Reform. We will only know what happened to the Conservative vote on the 5th July.
3. The Lib/Dems may return to a few seats previously held by conservatives, but only voted in by those who believe the moon is made of cheese, who might equally vote Green. A fantasy fringe.
The 40% Labour lead in the polls is not indicative of a great swing to Labour. It is that the spring tide of 2019 for the Conservatives is now well and truely on the ebb. Their return does not have tidal certainty, but has departed for other destinations, possibly permanently.
The Conservatives of 2019 have put democracy in jeopardy by allowing power to those who would jerrymander the electoral system to their permanent advantage. Votes for 16 year olds for instance. Remember Blair tried it by opening the doors to mass immigration that he judged would be grateful and vote labour. That is what should be inscribed on the conservative headstone, “They facilitated the end of democracy”
Reply Labour lead is around 20 not 40
June 24, 2024
What if Conservative voters all turned out in force for Reform in those constituencies where the so called Conservative candidate was in reality a wet Liberal democrat in disguise?
June 24, 2024
I think you have overlooked about 30% of the electorate. People who donât vote because they donât care which wing of the Globalist Uni-Party forms a government. They are definitely not âundecidedâ.
The usual General Election turnout is around 67% whereas the Brexit Referendum turnout was 72%. What if that lost 5% decided they now have a party to vote for?
As for being an unhappy country under Labour, we are already a very unhappy country so no change there.
June 24, 2024
I canât see how we will get a government that anybody wants, which is a recipe for serious unrest. At the same time, we have vast numbers of young men who have arrived from countries with a different culture from ours, being housed in hotels etc. at the tax-payerŚłs expense, just waiting for the signal to rise up. I think we are in an extremely volatile situation.
Whether we like him or not, Farage is telling it like it is. I donât imagine he would want to join, let alone lead, a socialist âConservativeâ Party which he left a good 30 years ago and has gone from bad to worse since then. The outlook is grim, and we need people with common sense, like you, to pull the country together. It wonât happen with Starmer or Sunak.
June 24, 2024
The real key to this election is how far the Labour vote erodes before polling day. It has definitely been on the slide as many people start to realise that Labour policies would be disastrous for themselves, their friends and families: voting Labour doesn’t solve the problems of Tories who do the opposite of their manifesto promises on issues like immigration. If the Labour vote can be reduced to the low 30s they would not have a large majority, and could be forced into coalition.
With Tory votes heavily injured by their lacklustre campaign and record it certainly becomes very possible that Reform could be the party to vote for to block Labour. Whether we would see a surge as occurred for Clegg in 2010 that took Lib Dems to polling as high as 35% as most popular party now looks like an outlier – but that surge only took a matter of days. A mistake by Labour and it could happen.
June 24, 2024
Lacklustre campaign – my Tory leaflet was a beige A5 card, I didn’t realise it was Tory at first.
June 24, 2024
The shocking abuse of doctors and nurses by patients.
Recently been in hospital for serious surgery and other probs related to and was shocked by the level of abuse that doctors and nurses receive nowadays and on a daily basis. Rude, aggressive behaviour by patients. Instead of just basic courtesy of 1. Addressing doctor as ‘doctor and a nurse ‘nurse.’ 2. Please / thank you 3. Gentle, good-natured cheerful and good humour.
Sure, doctors and nurses can be unprofessional too. But we’ve heard this argument lots of times (and I agree to a degree). But what about behaviour of patients to doctors etc. This is all part of sharp decline in cultural values and good behaviour of public in general in the last few decades in particular in the last two decades in the Western World.
So need to think about introducing charges for initial visit to doctor for a particular problem (say ÂŁ30 – and means tested for the most vulnerable). First and foremost so that people just appreciate more what doctors do instead of taking the NHS for granted etc.
June 24, 2024
Labour with a huge majority will fracture massively.
June 24, 2024
+1 – and that will be a good result. Donât be afraid to get that outcome – worse would be an exclusively remain Conservative Party.
June 24, 2024
This sort of appeal from the Tories is like the times of transport strikes when we are advised “to stagger our journeys”. This requires knowledge that no one has about everybody else’s intentions and then acting accordingly! Better to not let the Tories split the Reform vote, and vote the way you can support. Locally, SJR has made that easy!
June 24, 2024
Tory voters feel betryed by the parties lurch to the left.
A large chunk won’t vote. A similar size chunk will vote Reform.
The current government has had it’s fun while ignoring the needs of the electorate. Now the bill has turned up and they don’t like the look of it.
Without root and branch reform – and a decision as to whether they espouse conservative principles or they intend to continue as a Lib Dem tribute act – they are unelectable.
The level of reform is not going to happen without a sever expression of voter dismay – which looks likely to happen. Anything else and they’ll walk away chuckling over having managed to dodge the consequences of their actions yet again.
The next 5/10/15 years are likely to be hard.
June 24, 2024
The tories would have lost in 2019 but Boris promised ‘brexit’ ….which we didn’t get
June 24, 2024
âYou often have to vote for a government that is far from perfect to avoid one that will be far worse.â
The problem is, for instance, that any vote for any of the existing Parliamentary parties will be taken by them as a vote for continuing their policies of mass immigration (legal and illegal) and Net Zero. So how should those who oppose these policies vote? This is surely a failure of our democracy? Is it not time that for these major issues it becomes necessary to hold a referendum?
June 24, 2024
257 illegal aliens /boat people arrived yesterday from the safe country of France
It doesn’t stop – the tories are making a good effort keeping the story out of the press
June 24, 2024
41,000 criminal people from France ago after Sunak stated he would stop the boats! With 68,000 criminals from France given leave to stay here! Belgium turn around the boats leaving their shores! Go figure.
June 24, 2024
Itâs the same boats – they have number son them. They are returned to France for the next batch.
Go figure.
June 26, 2024
I wondered that Lynn, were they disposed of/recycled, surely they aren’t just returned to France for the next batch.
June 24, 2024
All the things that are hyped by the media and our politicos of all complexions, that may or may not need to be addressed, all have one thing in common they require vast amounts of money to facilitate these massive changes they themselves are selling. The bit these scaremongerâs get wrong is raising more by more contrived methods of tax revenue, it is not the answer, it will never be the answer, all the proposals have the removal of money from the economy and then even worse the Government being hands on a doing the actual delivery and delivery. If any of that worked, we wouldnât be in such dire-straights and going backwards by every measure. How can taking money out of the economy, thatâs all that tax does, be anything other than forced decline?
Having an economy, nurturing an economy causes wealth creation, that then means tax revenue gets to grow organically. Thatâs the only way to be prepared and resourced to tackle whatever the future might through at us.
Sunak, Starmer and Davey are Socialist die-hards – tax is the only thing they know. They seem to believe that as they are paid by the taxpayer thatâs all there is to it â more tax, by raising and taxing more and everything that exists then their problems and promises are solved. They believe the tax they manage to take is them being productive – so we must love them for it. 100% pure Socialism the plebs are the minions that are there to feed their egos.
Not one of them wants to control expenditure, ensure there is a return on every penny paid out, then ask what will this achieve for the UK, its people its existence.
Not one of them can be trusted to manage UK.plc
June 24, 2024
As pointed out elsewhere – ‘Households must brace for tax rises for the next five years amid uncertainty over how the next government will fund its spending plans, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has warned.
Both Labour and the Conservatives are engaged in a âconspiracy of silenceâ over the dire state of the public finances, said Paul Johnson, the think tankâs director.’
Not one mention anywhere of controlling expenditure, is this historical level of ‘tax grab’ going on what is needed are we getting value for money? As the IFS infers there is a âconspiracy of silenceâ
I have know idea whether Javier Milei is a good President but he does seem to have good focus when playing around with other peoples money. Our 3 President wannabee’s need to understand the money they are spending is not theirs it is ours, all of us could have spent it better and wiser.
June 24, 2024
John your party has created this situation. How can anybody vote for a conservative party that contains no real conservatives apart from a small number, has not delivered a conservative agenda and has ignored the membership so disgracefully. It is the Reform Party for me led by a real leader with conservative values who is in on the same wavelength as the majority of voters
I would urge every person to do the same, send a message to the rotten conservatives and vote for Nigel Farage and the Reform Party.
June 24, 2024
Sir John
A good well-reasoned item in the Telegraph â under the heading âLabour and the EU are a match made in hellâ
Weâre being lied to about the âbenefitsâ of the Single Market. Labour live a contradiction on growth and the EU. They claim to oppose austerity economics.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/24/were-being-lied-to-about-single-market-benefits/
Everything you have highlighted can equally be applied to this rag-tag of a left-over Boris Johnson Cabinet and Government. A 78 – seat majority trashed on broken promises that have become lies. The retention of EU Laws and the introductions of a new round for cars recently, everything kept in step and marching to the same beat. The adoption of a high spend and tax doctrine straight out of the Socialist play-book that alone keeps this version of a Conservative Government in full alignment with the Politburo master they have in the EU. They are forcing the destruction of the UK and its people – do they see this s payback?
The refuse the UK its own legislators, they distort democracy and so on – an old worn-out record of hypocrisy.
June 24, 2024
âI find this election difficult to call. If the polls are right the U.K. will suffer from a Labour government a majority do not want and an Opposition too small to make much impact.â
When the Starmer Government really gets into its stride and we have a wealth tax on anyone who is not a worker because they have some savings, our domestic gas is cut off to comply with the CCCâs latest decarbonisation budget and double CRT replaces double maths in schools then I would prefer to have Mr. Farage acting as the Opposition rather than Mr. Sunak or Sir Ed Davey.
June 25, 2024
By CRT do you mean Critical Race Theory. If so how is it related to maths? Just timetabling constraints, meaning no time left for Maths? Wouldn’t surprise me, science has already been replaced by CRT and Net Zero.
June 24, 2024
Step down and leave the field open for reform, the brand cannot be relied on.
Voting conservative is a wasted vote.
June 25, 2024
It is no good turning on Nigel Farage as happened with some UKIP members who should have known better. If we have to get rid of Labour then you will have to all stick together and not do the same thing you did to Boris. Okay, Boris is stupid but he was a winner on the streets and you should have made sure he had good people working in the background doing the work leaving him free to do his antics in public. If you start setting about Nigel, you will have the same thing happen as it going to happen next week. Get real and stop acting tribal.
June 25, 2024
Sounds like a good argument to repace FPTP with PR.
June 27, 2024
Millionaires leaving uk; not good for the economy. We need a less greedy tax regime. No tax shd be more than 10%
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-millionaire-migration-in-2024/
July 2, 2024
I have posted my vote. I have put a huge peg on my nose and voted Conservative. I am deeply disappointed with The party and the Government but need to try and limit the Labour majority who could be even more damaging. Reform have proposed proper conservative policies but will not get many seats. I hope but somehow do not expect the Conservative and Unionist Party to take serious note of their many failings, and change policies accordingly, and then get rid of all the âone nationâ lefties that should not be in the party. Its a major transformation, not a small tweak, that is required.