Our constitutional theory is democratic. Civil servants advise, Ministers decide. Civil servants remain anonymous, putting their views to Ministers in private. Ministers defend the collective government decision in public which is a decision  relevant Ministers and officials have reached through discussion and email exchanges.
This means a good Minister can make a difference, can change policy and can offer informed leadership. It means mediocre and bad Ministers simply do what the officials or Number 10 tell them, and gives great opportunities to civil servants to block, subvert or delay government policies they do not like.
There have been too few good Ministers this century. Nick Gibb was allowed to stay in post as Schools Minister for a long period and did important work helping raise standards. He pursued the need to use synthetic phonics  as the best method to teach reading. One of the unsung achievements of the period of Coalition and Conservative government was a big rise in U.K. child literacy as a result. He handled those in the teaching profession and some officials who were hostile to this approach.
More recently Claire Couthino started to introduce some realism into the self harming energy policy that most officials and the Opposition parties favoured. The U.K. government overrode official advice to ban new oil and gas wells in the U.K. This crazy policy increases world CO 2 by forcing the U.K. to import more CO 2 intensive LNG in place of using U.K. pipeline gas. She started to abate other areas of self harm like the early ban on the sale of petrol and diesel cars and the premature phasing out of gas boilers.
Much of the last government’s policy was derived from the international Treaty based consensus on climate change, WHO  responses to the pandemic, EU regulation and the hopeless  forecasts and views of the Bank of England and OBR. We were governed in many areas by an official tyranny based on wildly wrong forecasts and an official consensus shared by the political Opposition that Ministers were unwilling to challenge. The new government will double up on the official consensus as they believe it all, especially the bits where it is obviously wrong.
Some think the lockdown consensus, the money printing bonanza, the pursuit of net zero whilst importing more from high CO 2 countries, Â the mass migration policies and the rest are the ideas of a few influential billionaires. If only. These are policies shared by armies of officials, baked into global Treaties and pursued by many political parties.
August 19, 2024
Good morning.
Well having failed, like probably a few others, the censorship test yesterday I hope to do better today đ
To answer today’s question as to who rules ? Well, given it is between two possibilities, with others conspicuous by their absence by George, I will say the Civil Service.
And if you doubt me on that, you can ask, Liz.
August 19, 2024
And the quangos, the BoE, the unelected international bodies⊠Stamer prefers Davos to democracy as he made very clear.
August 19, 2024
If they fired or made redundant about 75% of the civil servants they would still have plenty to do what is really needed from Government defence, law and order and not much more – and the problem of reforming them would only be 25% of the size. See how few we needed to run the British Empire.
August 19, 2024
Govt. Ministers are in charge. Sadly career politicians do not have enough experience of life or the courage to confront and challenge established orthodoxy.
85 seat majority gave Johnson and ministers the ability to change the face of Britain. Where were the strong leave characters to hold Johnsonâs feet to the fire? Why were the ardent remainers not culled from the party? The uniting of party nonsense did not last or work the other way! Cummings was single minded enough to sort out civil service, yes, it would ruffle feathers but that was and is needed. Johnson wanted an easy life. That is where strong characters should have forced the direction for him.
August 19, 2024
@Lifelogic +1 Starmer in some media quarters is now seen as being aligned and mimicking that of the other European Leader of the National Socialist Workers Party, this time on a WEF socialist scale. ‘Free speech’ is when you follow the diktats and your opinions are aligned to the personal group think at the top.
August 19, 2024
Plus Kahn and Starmer wrecking the property rental market – already harming both landlords and tenants. Mind you Osborne, Gove and the Tories were doing that already. Why on earth did that idiot and Covid vaccines are safe liar or fool(?) Sunak not wait until Nov or Jan even?
August 19, 2024
“Claire Couthino started to introduce some realism into the self harming energy policy”
Well hardly just a tiny touch on the brakes at best – she has a half maths. degree and surely must know the whole agenda is bonkers – as is burning wood at Drax.
August 19, 2024
I would modify that to read “we are ruled by Civil Service group think”.
August 19, 2024
Why is it that no other country is slavishly following these international organisations to bankrupt themselves.
We have a very partisan civil service that hates the tories and will hate Reform even more
Luckily I think Nigel has the guts to face them down. Let’s hope so.
August 19, 2024
Of course they are – all across the western world. Germany is finished, which means the EU is finished. đđ»
August 19, 2024
I am convinced only a few like JR understand national finances properly. Therefore ministers rely on Treasury Mandarin types and Bailey are believed. Utter fools.
August 19, 2024
Well if it is not elected politicians in charge we have zero democracy. But then even if it is and they do the reverse of what they promise in elections, as the Tories have repeatedly done under, Cameron to Sunak (and Under Heath to Major) we have no democratic control anyway. Just an expensive fake veneer of democracy plus the Lords and a deluded wrong on nearly every issue King – which are not even that.
August 19, 2024
We need far smaller government, lower taxes, fewer net low skilled migrants, cost efficient public services, less red tape, no net zero, a state sector paid and pensioned about the same as others and not far more, police who address and deter real crimesâŠ
But we get the total reverse of this government for the state sector and against the 80% who work in the private sector – so I think we can safely assume who calls the shots – just follow the money.
August 19, 2024
We naively believe that we can get a change of government philosophy at every change of party at a GE. This is now false. We will only get a real change in government when the incumbents are evicted following an economic collapse. In other words, a real change of government is now only a generational event, and brought about not at the ballot box but by economic and probable social collapse. Has democracy failed, or is it the old problem of human greed and corruption not doing it right?
August 19, 2024
Indeed it seems we cannot get lower taxes by voting for them. Only when the economy fully collapses and they can squeeze no more blood out of the workers might the rates finally stop rising. Even them they might prefer to keep killing the economy trying to extract even more but getting less.
August 19, 2024
I don’t think we are going to have to wait a generation for economic collapse. I think that is likely before the next election is due.
August 19, 2024
+1
August 19, 2024
Yes, I agree, the Starmer government is just the last chapter in this sorry saga. It started with Blair; and one could argue that Blair has ‘been in office’ continuously since the loss of John Smith. Imagine, if John Smith and not Blair had run Labour. I think we’d be in a better situation.
August 19, 2024
Indeed. Sir JRs last paragraph should have included most Tory MPs. I hope that those that lost their seats are struggling financially, to suffer what they left us with.
Somehow I doubt it. The Tory party machine must weed out those weak/woke nepo, bag carrier, does a lot of canvassing candidates and attract real world talent. Unfortunately it seems only the former who canât do anything else want to apply.
If only ability matched the massive egos, thick skin, unashamed ambition etc of most of the Tory cabinet/on tte books.
August 19, 2024
We have to face the fact that in most cases, Civil Servants Rule.
As a result I propose we elect the civil servants and have specific power to fire them if their policies are detrimental to the welfare of British people.
As the political parties are now indistinguishable, and the civil servants better educated and therefore more powerful than the politicians the party machines foist on us, I canât see what we have to lose.
Scrap the House of Lords. Put the House of Commons on ice. Have the civil servants or perhaps just the Secretaries of State, stand for election on a manifesto that each provides us for his/her Department.
It might be the ONLY way to achieve self-determination.
August 19, 2024
See the Matt Ridley article in the Spectator a few weeks back.
âWhomever you vote for, the Blob wins.â
August 19, 2024
That’s a variation of the old saw ‘No matter who you vote for the government gets in’ i.e. the Civil Service run things.
August 19, 2024
Well, not much logic here is there, Ms Atkinson. You want to elect the civil servants, who have been SELECTED because of there educational achievements? So only a selected civil servant can stand for election? Is that a newly selected civil servant or an experienced civil servant? Oh no, can’t be experienced because they must be elected? Hmmm, …Tricky…..
August 19, 2024
Civil Servants have NOT been âselectedâ. They self-select and get qualifications. We need to set them against each other personally to get the best out of them. The hopeless political class just gets in the way.
August 20, 2024
instituteforgovernment.org.uk 09/08/2024 âCivil Service recruitmentâ.
It would be good if Lynn knew just a teeny-weeny little bit about what she writes about.
August 19, 2024
I see little point in setting out a wish list that will never happen. You did however mention âbetter educatedâ and surely this is something that could make a difference,
Prospective Tory candidates have up to five years to âtrainâ . They each should have a develop plan to manage change, conflict, large organisations etc. insead or other business schools with a time appropriate programme so they can match the civil servants in generic knowledge, you dont have to be an expert, being inquisitive will get you there,
It is said the Japanese when they led the world in quality control, asked the question âwhy?â Five times before accepting the answer.
August 19, 2024
If the British electorate can’t get voting for their MP right, what hope for civil service elections?
When contemptuous MPs come along without a brain, it’s no surprise the civil service mandarins run rings round them, and end up doing what they please.
Civil service runs the country, ministers play politics.
August 19, 2024
The British electorate DO get voting for their MPs right, but they have Hobsonâs Choice.
They would do a great job at electing top Civil Servants based on a manifesto. And we can pick the total manifesto Department by Department, which is an improvement on current.
We also ditch the âfar-rightâ – to âprogressiveâ politics and the whole population will judge and vote on the POLICIES rather than for the red or blue flag and spin.
The person making the promises will have authority to carry them out in full.
August 20, 2024
Top Civil Servants are supposed to be able to provide various solutions to a given problem, one often at 180 degrees to another to the minister in charge. How can that go with a recruitment of CSs based on a manifesto, which by definition has already defined a political direction? Is the direction not to be defined by ministers? What you are advocating is more related to special advisors.
And making promises with âauthorityâ but without considering how to finance them is a recipe to produce people not surviving âother lettuces wilting in the near futureâ.
August 19, 2024
It doesn’t often happen Lynn, and I know you don’t give a toss, but I agree with most of that!
I’m not convinced ‘better educated and therefore more powerful’ is necessarily correct.
I offer cases in point, Scargill, Lynch, Livingstone.
August 19, 2024
The battle in politics is not physical but mental. You need the robustness of a Redwood as well as the mental capacity. Itâs too much to ask and we canât afford to go from one rare person to the next with generations between.
The British HATE politicos because itâs brutal, stupid and made for narcissistic manipulation.
We need to ditch that.
Voting for each department manifesto individually is a sophisticated and possible form of âdirect democracyâ.
I did just think of this this morning in response to JRs question.
August 19, 2024
Just clear out all the top Civil Servants at each election and let them apply for their jobs. The lower orders who actually do the work I would think, would need to stay to keep things running until a new government lays down the rules. Civil Servants just seem to change the colour of their ties and carry on with their own agenda and the ‘Sir Humphries’ need to be held to account.
August 19, 2024
Who reappoints them? The idiot political class who have no judgement anyway, but on what criteria would the applicants be judged?
August 20, 2024
How would voting help? How many people know who they are or what they do, they deliberately hide in the shadows. A board of some sort with the knowledge and access to their records would stand a much better chance. Even if the same old were appointed, they would get the message that they are not in charge and will be answerable one day.
August 19, 2024
@Graham1946
Yep.
Currently, politicians are temporary whereas civil servants are permanent.
This needs to be rectified.
In a democracy, making politicians permanent is probably not an option đ
We therefore need to make civil servants temporary.
August 19, 2024
Unless I’m mistaken, isn’t this the way in which the Americans work? The main civil servants come with the new president and are chosen to support his/her agenda
I’ve always thought that this interrupts the management of the country but maybe the day to day is left to the foot soldiers who are unchanged while the decision makers are on the side of the one elected to be in charge and ensure that HIS/HER policy is put into action
August 19, 2024
Actually I have had a few more thoughts:
1. We donât need to accept a single manifesto with all the rubbish included.
2. We donât need to have the elections all at once.
3. Civil Servants have qualifications (MPs do not which is why the party machines have been able to lumber us with bugs bunny). So that would be the âqualification for standing for electionâ.
4. They would compete with each other – that would make a nice change.
5. We could select the Treasury Secretary who promised to spend more on the U.K. than elsewhere. They could specify allocation to each Department.
6. Then the separate ministries then put forward manifestos and we vote. They are compelled to deliver their manifesto else their opposition can challenge them AT ANY TIME and force another vote.
Fundamentally there is no hope of the political parties improving.
Of course China has no politicians, just a civil service, but they canât sack them and certainly not individually.
August 19, 2024
Throughout our time in the EU, on an incresing curve, civil service mandarins controlled government under the direction of the EU. Democracy was thereby subverted. They implanted our govrnance with quangos at great expence to carry out their work. Members of Parliament were quietly emmasculated to the same level of ineffectiveness as thoe in the EU talking shop.
Not since our messy and inadequate departure from the EU have the CS accepted a reversion to advice and anonymity. However good a minister might be, becoming one in the present situation is a hospital pass. Particularly when your surrounding ministers and PM might not be that good or persuaded.
You highlight the problem, but offer no solution, other than a Cabinet of excellent ministers, and we know such does not exist. My solution, often offered,.. is a new contract of employment for all civil servants high and low. Advice should be the limit of their power, while service to the elected government their normal function. Hire and fire should be in the hands of ministers. All should sign the Official Secrets Act and be aware of what it means. End of career baubles should only be for exceptional service to the country. Ministers should be empowered to introduce people of ability from the private sector to executive power in the CS. Quangos should be audited as to function and effectiveness, and in most cases returned to the responsibility of ministries and ministers.
What is your business plan for the CS, SJR, or do we just wait for Reform to become a government.
August 19, 2024
If the direction of travel is wrong (as for example net zero, big government, over high taxes, the NHS structures,,, are clearly wrong) then employing civil servants of more ability to implement these stuctures better will do more net harm not less.
You have to change the direction of travel.
August 19, 2024
Agricola +++
The quangos could be cut by 75% and the civil service halved, to force responsibility back onto ministers! We will just have to wait for Reform.
August 19, 2024
They don’t need to sign the Official Secrets Act to be bound by it, we are all bound by it – see House of Commons briefing paper CBP07422 page 6, Section 2.
I agree a new contract is needed but there has to be the means and will to enforce it.
Ministers must be able to sack CS employees if they are in breech or not meeting performance standards and we need to be able to hold MPs to account for government failings in good time for the correction to actually make a difference.
With NGOs there must be a contract/terms of service and they must be held to them.
In particular I think we need a meaningful way to address where MPs have said/committed to one thing during an election then do the exact opposite when in power.
August 19, 2024
Ministers donât have the wherewithall. See the article above written by JR today.
August 19, 2024
In the context of a new contract and a government with the spine to see it through .. I am not holding my breath.
August 19, 2024
Dixie
The OSA might concentrate the minds of those who have thoughts of releasing inside information that makes government difficult, or any who might work actively to undermine democracy.
August 19, 2024
It clearly doesn’t though.
The way to concentrate minds is to take judicial/financial action, make an example of people .. just like the present government are doing.
August 19, 2024
Your first paragraph is spot on. Hence why no difference between Tory and Labour. Reform is the only choice for the public if they want change and out of the world clubs
August 19, 2024
I accept the issues are likely complicated with different groups within government having different agendas, some of who should not constitutionally have one while others who should just go where instructed instead.
This might be the expected environment who enter explicit politics and/or civil service/NGO management
But for us plebs the result is a “progressive” government and institutions that take instruction from even more disconnected parties and fundamentally hate this country, culture and citizens to the extent of focusing all support on minorities to the exclusion of the majority.
I don’t see the current attitudes and approach of our governments ending well nor do I see simply voting in some different MPs solving the problem without some fundamental constitutional changes.
August 19, 2024
See the last four, rather excellent, Dr John Campbell videos on the vast Vaccine harms worldwide and in the UK.
In the Telegraph on Sat? We made mistakes over Letby, admits CPS – they sure did. Another Post Office Cover Up scandal?
Dominic Lawson in the Times – The Drax tax is an affront to reason and nature – it certainly is.
Burning old coal is far better in every way CO2, environmental, energy efficiency, cost⊠than chopping down American forests, importing them on diesel ship, drying them and then burning then as young coal at Drax. It is surely a CO2 and energy accounting fraud?
August 19, 2024
It was only a question too & not even an insulting statement.
August 19, 2024
Many civil servants are in breach of their constitutional requirements so maybe its time those constitutional requirements become legal requirements now.
As is always the case, responsibility for any operational change in any organisation rests with the most senior leadership of that organisation. It is therefore the most senior civil servants who are responsible for the operational changes which have occurred under them. I am not au fait with the Minister / civil servant process but I would have thought the senior civil servants have job descriptions and I would have thought Ministers have the right to read and consider those senior job descriptions to ensure they are appropriate for effecting Government business. If upon consultation with the senior civil servants they are still being misaligned with their job descriptions and unconstitutional then maybe the next Conservative government can pass laws making the legal distinction between adviser and executive and anyone in the civil service who impedes the government carrying out its democratically mandated duty will face legal penalties.
Proper senior civil servants should want to promote a constitutionally compliant, advisory and intellectual environment throughout their departments. If their staff want to be political activists then they must do that out of workhours.
August 19, 2024
It could be a long wait for ‘the next Conservative government’.
August 19, 2024
Only if Conservative policy-making remains anchored to the centre ground because ‘elections are won on the centre ground’ (hmm, that was spectacularly disproven in July!). If the Conservative Party gets off the centre-ground and once again offers the electorate the solutions to the problems which our country is experiencing it will win big in 2029 (unlike a Labour Party which is destined to have a litany of failure by that stage).
August 19, 2024
MT
Do you mean a government that labels itself Conservative or a Reform government that is philosophically Conservative.
August 19, 2024
We are effectively governed by the UN, IMF, WEF, WHO and “despite Brexit” the EU.
The Civil Service takes their orders from these organisations and only pays attention to the Government and their Minister if they agree with the policy they wish to implement.
The billionaires who are frequently blamed for the destructive Covid, Net Zero and mass immigration policies use their money to influence these organisations; to pay for noisy propagandist organisations like Just Stop Oil and to give “bungs” to MPs/Ministers in the form of donations (Miliband for instance) and the promise of lucrative jobs when they leave politics (Sharma).
( reference to a named billionaire removed Ed)
The Establishment’s system of government is corrupt from top to bottom and is a democracy in name only. You can vote for whoever you like …. the UN, IMF, WEF, WHO and “despite Brexit” the EU rule.
August 19, 2024
Reform Donna is the only choice. Tory Party were able to change all the vile Labour changes but chose not to. Truss was a threat and she was got rid of with the help of her party, the pro EU one nation types.
August 19, 2024
Gold bullion is the worldâs greatest money. All the other financial markets can be viewed as simple tools that should be used to get more gold
Enthusiasm over a likely interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in September propelled gold bullion to an all-time high of $2,509.65/Oz on Friday. This, coupled with increased geopolitical tensions and robust central bank-buying has sent physical gold over 20% higher so far this year.
The India government recently cut the duty on gold imports duty from 15% to 6%. India farmers traditionally buy gold with profits after a good harvest. This is a far bigger game-changer for the gold market than most Western investors understand. Iâm projecting it ultimately adds around 50 tons a month of fresh and consistent demand.
Coupled with resumed central bank buying of mine output, the anticipated cuts in interest rates and wars breaking out everywhere, the outlook for gold is very good.
August 19, 2024
SG
A very optimistic version of the opinion that gold will always be a good investment.
Gold has fluctuated up and down over the decades.
Many speculators have lost out.
“The world’s greatest money” you say.
Take care.
August 20, 2024
@Sam
Governments love printing money. The world economy runs on tick with national debts of America, China, the EU an Britain now exceeding their GDP and are so large, they can never be paid down. But governments cannot print gold!
We are borrowing money to pay the interest on the national debt (now at ÂŁ2.7 TRILLION) – even at 5% bank rate, the interest is over ÂŁ125bn a year. Global debt is eventually going to cause the mother of all depressions. Another derivative-linked banking crisis will probably kick it off. Or the $dollar losing it’s status as the world’s reserve currency
August 20, 2024
Irrelevant
Gold is a metal that varies considerably in value over time.
Which is what I pointed out.
August 19, 2024
SJR, it depends on whether by ‘Who rules?’ you mean who creates policy, or if you mean who administers policy. In the latter case, of course, it’s civil servants. The more interesting question is who creates policy. We have seen that governments don’t carry out the policies they pledged in their manifestos, and introduce policies that they didn’t mention in their manifestos. So democracy doesn’t have much to do with it. Look at the main policies that successive governments in this country have followed for the last few years: Covid lockdowns, net zero, mass migration, and support for war in Ukraine. In each case the policy has been elaborated and decided by bodies outside this country. The WHO, the UN and NATO have promulgated policies which this country has largely followed. When a government has briefly tried to act independently, it has quickly had to fall into line, as we saw with Johnson not wanting to impose lockdowns immediately, Sunak trying to loosen the iron grip of net zero, and Truss ignoring the international bankers’ cartel.
August 19, 2024
Afraid 40 years of membership of the EU where we automatically took orders from abroad through the Civil Service has left us bereft of the management, skills, procedures, set up, and thought process that preceded us joining.
Until we change the Civil Service management set up, reduce their numbers, and power, nothing will change.
August 19, 2024
I agree with a lot said today about civil servants , they do need their ability to make
changes toned down!
However the recurring problem is the loony far left that are voted in by idiots just like they have done this time!
I believe that another level should be introduced in party system where all proposals must pass through local associations situated all over the country before they can be considered by west minster, and only the country approves!
August 19, 2024
As I mentioned not so long ago here, it is time civil service leaders, and others, were questioned directly by the media and identified. Their departments put out statements, and report on performance.
Old practices are no longer acceptable. They must no longer have invisibilty and protection.
August 19, 2024
Make no mistake the rules of governing have changed.
The old idea that a population would elect their preferred candidate to political office, is still in place but they have no meaningful influence on what is actually enacted.
We now have mainstream parties all wedded to the internationalisation of affairs impacting the country.
The Labour lot simply have an easier ride on the establishment civil service train than the Tories. The LibDems can be ignored as they are simply the spread in the sandwich, there but completely ignored because they will always sit on the fence and agree with internationalism’s prime objective.
The UN based treaties are given primacy as are the EU rules and regulations simply because they claim to be ‘international’ thus above local enactments of law or any other policy activity.
The only way out of this straightjacket situation is to elevate a political Party that is prepared to roll back the internationalists march of common purpose and homogenisation of society across the world. That is a tough task and not easy to achieve. It is worth doing but time is running out. The advance of UN based agents and authority being handed over to the UN WHO dept. giving the unelected bureaucrats power over national governments is another step along the road of international power under treaty law. Those treaties/laws are designed to destroy local/national authority and freedoms.
Time is getting short to return the Nation to its former sovereign status.
We can be sure of this. The Labour Party in its various guises i.e. Greens, LibDems, SNP, Plaid, and more recently the Tories, are so wedded to the internationalist agenda there will be no change of direction from them.
We need major reforms, let me say that again.
We need Reform.
August 19, 2024
+1
August 19, 2024
ps, I was distracted!
The king or Queen must only be a figurehead with no input to the system, It is time for change
August 19, 2024
Thatâs what we have. The Royal Prerogative is exercised by the PM. the Constitutional Monarch must an apolitical so that they can defend the Constitution from all parties, because the Constitution constrains politicians.
The last Monarch refused to do her job. She became a common citizen of the EU, which is unconstitutional. The current Monarch is a disaster.
August 19, 2024
We are ruled by unelected Civil Servants, quangos, lawyers and judges etc. much of which has been captured by fifth column Marxists. As has a majority of Parliament who use these institutions to enact policies they dare not admit to their electorate they support.
When a minister does attempt to get work done by his Civil Servants he is hounded out of office by the Civil Service, Parliament and the BBC.
As a result we are in hole and descending ever closer to rule by an authoritarian Far Left. The only solution is to vote into government a party that is not part of the existing Uniparty (Con/Lab/Lib Dem/Green) and who acquire the necessary power to make the required changes to personnel and policies through referendums.
August 19, 2024
Part of the problem is that politicians will write general principles into acts of parliament, which allow officials, quangos, lawyers, campaigners and courts to decide on day-to-day administration, blocking ministers’ decisions through judicial review. The notorious legislation for this are the Climate Change, Human Rights and Equalities Acts.
August 19, 2024
And the only recent Prime minister who showed any sign of appreciating what you have said, Liz Truss, was kicked out by……….the Conservatives!
August 19, 2024
Sir John
The Civil Servants obviously. The reason and the use of a democratically elected legislators was negated the day we first joined the EU. What is called a Parliament has deferred all management of the Country to alternative bodies ever since.
Even minor entities such as the un-elected OBR, slid into give advice that minister could accept or not, has now become the effective Chancellor of the UK. The electorate has no say in who the individuals that make up these bodies are, but have to accept the rulings they pass down, without any means to challenge, change or object. Is that democracy?
Like all things the real fight is to become a democracy, a free sovereign democracy. What is often refereed to as our Parliament fights this notion ‘democracy’, they refuse the authority we lend and empower them with. The HoC and the HoL now gives the impression they are just ‘freeloaders’ there because of friends and have no real duty or responsibility. Not even selected by the electorate, that first part of democracy is denied to the people of the UK.
August 19, 2024
âMuch of the last governmentâs policy was derived from the international Treaty based consensus on climate change.â
Whilst there is climate change, a slight warming coming out of the Little Ice Age and the most recent ice age which ended just 11,000 years ago, it is definitely not man-made and not caused by the burning of hydrocarbon fuels emitting CO2.
Although CO2 is only 0.04% of the atmosphere there is already sufficient for all the greenhouse gas (GHG) warming effect to take place that can take place, a phenomenon known as IR saturation.
The Royal Society concerning the GHG effect of increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere write :
âAs CO2 concentrations increase, the absorption at the centre of the strong band is already so intense that it plays little role in causing additional warming. However, more energy is absorbed in the weaker bands and in the wings of the strong band, causing the surface and lower atmosphere to warm further.â
https://royalsociety.org/news-resources/projects/climate-change-evidence-causes/question-8/
But note the Royal Society provides no quantification of the GHG effect from the âweaker bands and the wings of the strong bandâ because this is negligible as proven by Happer & Wijngaardenâs calculations. The small effects are calculated by H&W to be just around 3 W/m2 giving a temperature rise of 0.7 degrees C for a doubling of CO2 using the Stefan-Boltzmann equation.
The IPCC themselves calculate a mere 1.2 degrees C of warming for a doubling of CO2. See P95 footnote :
https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg1/IPCC_AR6_WGI_FullReport.pdf
So CAGW caused by burning hydrocarbon fuels is nonsense and simply an excuse to implement the economy destroying Net Zero Strategy.
August 19, 2024
The interesting bit in the Royal Society quotation provided by OR was the original question:
âIs there a point at which adding more CO2 will not cause further warming?â
and the answer was:
âNo. Adding more CO2 to the atmosphere will cause surface temperature to continue to increase. As the atmospheric concentrations of CO2 increase, the addition of extra CO2 becomes progressively less effective at trapping Earthâs energy, but surface temperature will still riseâ.
The reason H&W got so much traction particularly with people insufficiently scientifically competent to see the tricks of the âH&W magiciansâ is that the CLINTEL, CO2 Coalition and others reproduced H&Wâs curves of the outgoing long-wave radiation at the top of the atmosphere (ie, the only curves provided by H&W) and not the ones at the surface (where in fact most of us humans tend to live đ).
Furthermore H&W present curves for static computations performed for some concentrations of CO2 (and in some other papers, also N2O, CH4) (ie the initial forcing) but explicitly tell their readers they didnât look at the response to this initial forcing. In fact they couldnât as they would have had to have access to at least a radiative-convective model (as originally introduced by Manabe in the 60s-70s or better to a full three dimensional general circulation model (that Manabe et al. used in the 80s) to incorporate the interaction with water vapour.
August 19, 2024
Hefner :
Yes, the average global temperature will rise if CO2 doubles, which will take 170 years at the current rate of increase, provide of course there are no other changes such as the sunâs output. The IPCC calculate this to be 1.2 degrees C, H&W 0.7 degrees C. These are not figures which can cause CAGW and are well below those for warm periods which have occurred since the ending of the most recent ice age, such as the Medieval Warm Period when Icelandic Norsemen colonised Greenland requiring temperatures 5 degrees C higher than today.
Any increase in temperature at the surface will be transmitted to the whole atmosphere via all forms of heat transfer including radiation. It doesnât get âtrappedâ near the surface. Of course the measurement of the outgoing radiation at the top of the atmosphere is the defining measurement of the GHG effect as it is from the top of the atmosphere that the IR radiation, after bouncing around the atmosphere, finally escapes to space. So good are H&W calculations that they not only match the data over the Equator and the Mediterranean but they correctly predict that over the Antarctic CO2 cools rather than warms. Matching the data is the final test of any theory or calculation.
Water vapour also exhibits the IR saturation effect.
August 20, 2024
Not much IR saturation effect by water vapour for the simple reason that because of the hydrological cycle (evaporation, condensation, precipitation) the average atmospheric lifetime of a H2O molecule in its gaseous phase is around a week.
climate.mit.edu 03/11/2023 âWhy do we blame climate change on carbon dioxide, when water vapor is a much more common greenhouse gas?â.
âThe residence time of water vapour in the atmosphereâ, 13/07/2021, L.Gimeno et al., Nature Rev.Earth Environm., 2, 558-569.
Thatâs not say that H2O does not contribute to climate change. As known since the â60s, the original warming by CO2 is further increased by an increase in humidity with increase in temperature (ie, a positive feedback loop). [BTW something not considered by H&W in their static computations].
science.nasa.gov 08/02/2022 âHow atmospheric water vapor amplifies Earthâs greenhouse effectâ.
August 19, 2024
So hefner, do you agree or disagree with the IPCC statement quoted by OR that a doubling of CO2 would cause a 1.2 degree rise in global temperatures ?
August 19, 2024
It is not a question of me agreeing or not with the IPCC statement.
We have already had 1.5C for 12 months (Julyâ23-Juneâ24) above the reference for the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period.
climate.copernicus.eu 08/07/2024 âJune 2024 marks 12th month of global temperature reaching 1.5C above pre-industrialâ.
August 20, 2024
Yet the 1.5c average global temperature rise since 1850 to 2024 is less than predicted.
And post 2000 the rate of increase has slowed.
Yet CO2 has increased.
In the 1990s predictions for post 2000 were for a tipping point with increased rates of temperature increase.
Like a lot of climate predictions made over decades it hasn’t come true.
August 20, 2024
Sam, what had been predicted for temperature between 1850 and 2024? You cannot answer that one because what had been originally discussed by scientists like Manabe and successors was some increase of temperature for a doubling of CO2 concentration.
Given that between 1850 and 2024 the CO2 concentration appears to have increased from 280 to 420 ppm, ie 50%, it is not surprising that the temperature has increased by âless than predictedâ for the good reason that nothing had been predicted for a 50% rise.
Your QED fails here.
It also fails with your âpost 2000 the rate of increase has slowedâ (climate.gov 18/01/2024 âClimate change: Global temperatureâ). Here I gave you NOAA results so you can compare with Copernicus results if you wish.
August 19, 2024
Indeed, but those same policies are initially created by the likes of WEF who have so much influence over world treaties and political direction.
The world has turned left – those already of the left welcome and support policies that support their socialist make believe dream world ideology. The strangle hold the left have on the rest of us thus increases, and we get more agreement to implement WEF style programs.
The Tories recognized this early on but did nothing to change it, instead they succumbed, and the West was lost.
August 19, 2024
Excellent post. I will vote for whichever candidate for the Conservative leadership is the most coherent advocate for recognising this issue and has the most credible plan for dealing with it. Unclear at the moment which of them that is.
August 19, 2024
Needn’t bother, that is so far as I can see none of the 6. Although most of them are now having pseudo-Damascene conversions on the road to what they delusionally think is Downing Street, I think they would all just complete (at the next General Election) what Rishi Sunak half managed to do which is the extinction of the Conservative Party as a significant political force. Suella Braverman was the only hope unless they somehow brought Boris Johnson back!
August 19, 2024
In Charge? It can’t be MP’s, because they aren’t in office long enough, or have the expertsee, and if there is an MP that could challenge a Senior Civil Servant, they are isolated or left on the benches! In such a position, very few would want to take up the responsibily, knowing this!
But, as far as I am told; There are Memebers of the HoL that are in postions of so much Power, and Control, they can dicate who progresses up the ladder (including MP’s), who gets the top, or important, jobs!
How many ex-members of the Secuirty Services, Forces, Judges, all with contacts, are in the HoL?
If they don’t have the Power, on their own, they will form a nice little club! Club of Members!
It happens a lot with the procurement of MOD, NHS, Development projects, etc,…! A nice little earner!
August 19, 2024
The two BBC TV series “Yes Minister” and “Yes Prime Minister” said/says it all.
August 19, 2024
Climate change takes millennia and is not man-made as the literati would have us believe. NetZero (<1%) will destroy this country, which is what the WEF desire I understand?
August 19, 2024
The answer is simple, it is Civil Servants! It takes an exceptional Minister to be in charge of his/her department today. We have had a series of weak PMs and Governments over the last 30 years and far too many low calibre MPs.
The Civil Service should be significantly reduced to a maximum of 120,000, with 90% of Quangos being disbanded. The responsibility for governing the UK should be firmly placed back in the hands of Parliament. It’s crucial that Conservative MPs, both current and future, are selected by local associations, not imposed on constituencies by a central authority.
But it will take an exceptional PM, who is a proper conservative, to have a vision for the UK and be tough enough to implement it. The stunning ignorance of MPs about Net Zero and refusal to educate themselves about it tells you all you need to know about how stupid most of them are.
August 19, 2024
There is no doubt that the Civil Service controls the government and dictates most policy.
Understandable, because they are in post the entire time and politicians, as ministers, come and go with alarming frequency. It is why we should follow the US model and replace the heads of all departments with political appointees capable of stamping their authority on governments’ policies and make it happen.
Sadly that is a fruitless waste of time in the 21st Century. There is far too much agreement in Parliament over the direction policy should take. We have the three largest parties, plus the SNP and Greens all in favour Net Zero and much else besides. As for immigration, the Home Office has thwarted several Home Secretaries until they now have a minister who will do nothing to reduce it.
As a lifelong Conservative, I have reluctantly reached the conclusion that the current make up of the Conservative parliamentary party does not take the desires of the population of these islands seriously. The only way power can be wrestled away from Labour and taken in the direction that most citizens want it to go, is for there to be a new alignment on the centre right. Voters know that nothing will change without a new government made up of the Conservatives and Reform.
August 19, 2024
The Tory Party had 14 years to repeal the Climate Change Act and failed; Claire Couthino should therefore have ensured that the destruction of our country’s economy because of an international hoax proceeded unhindered.
Nick Gibb’s achievement in reinstating the method of teaching literacy to children which had always been used previously was necessary because of the failure of the Tory Party to abolish the Department for Education, an organisation full of low-life civil servants none of whom had ever attempted to teach a child to read but insanely believed that they could improve on an already proven method.
August 19, 2024
In the political power play you excluded the special advisers Spads âŠduring the WW2 they termed them as the âaxis of evilâ, along with the civil servants, you could vastly reduce their number or sack them if the donât comply
August 19, 2024
Labour are taking the interesting approach of putting Labour supporters and donors directly into very senior Civil Service roles bypassing the normal recruitment process. This should ensure that their policies get implemented irrespective of who and how competent the minister is, or indeed which party is in government. Something else the Conservatives failed to do when they had the chance.
August 19, 2024
I have little doubt that our country has been ruled and run by Civil Service mandarins for the past 30 years. Given the lack of true leadership in each Government over that period and the obvious lack of significant policies and low political, organisational and economic skills to go with them, it has fallen upon the unelected civil service to show our elected Ministers the way forward. Their way forward!
Such is the problem we have with these new, “Professional Politicians”, who have never had a “proper job” before entering politics, nor have they ever held a relevant or significant position outside of Whitehall and Westminster, they are then forced to rely upon their indoctrination by the Civil Servants, who may well be lacking the same ‘industrial’ experience, except that they have been doing the same job for much longer than the newbie Minister.
Sadly, the Civil Service, as a result, de facto have taken on so much power as an unelected body AND they appear to favour socialism above capitalism that, regardless of the Party in power, we’re faced with raving socialism which is and has been crippling OUR country over the past 30 years.
But it is the fault of the British electorate this time around, for allowing these unelected faceless ‘rulers’ to receive their favoured Party into Downing Street.
Our future now looks even more bleak than it was.
August 19, 2024
âSome think the lockdown consensus, the money printing bonanza, the pursuit of net zero whilst importing more from high CO 2 countries, the mass migration policies and the rest are the ideas of a few influential billionaires. If only. These are policies shared by armies of officials, baked into global Treaties and pursued by many political parties.â
But, Sir John, have you ever stopped to wonder exactly *how* these unpopular policies suddenly pop up and then get simultaneously âshared by armies of officials, baked into global Treaties and pursued by many political partiesâ until they are set in stone? Surely it is precisely because of the attempts to buy influence, sponsorship and patronage on the part of said billionaires – and their preferred, often openly stated agendas – in the first place?
Reply The overwhelming number who believe and implement these things have never met the billionaires or received any benefits from them. They all believe the same because all the others believe it.
August 19, 2024
Yes, of course – once it has been embedded at the top, it becomes the new orthodoxy!
August 20, 2024
Reply to reply: I was glad to see you accepted Barbara’s point, Sir John, about how billionaire influence works. Journalists etc will do a plutocrat’s bidding ‘without ever having met him’, because their newspaper is a bought-and-paid-for supporter of what that billionaire wants to see happen. Same if the person belongs to an NGO he funds, or is lobbied by a lobby organisation or think tank he funds.
August 19, 2024
You tell me John.You have been in those circles long enough to see the reality.
August 19, 2024
Elon downsized Twitter by 90% without affecting service/operations.
He also implemented many improvements, ongoing. So it can be done.
The bloatware, the blob, the quango’s, the whole civil service, their ‘agencies’ and indeed many local councils could well do with major productivity improvements, to earn the pay rises they so demand.
All the business transformation levers are well documented, just needs THE political will and A powerful transformation programme, staffed by believers, to drive through the changes required.
August 19, 2024
If central government is anything like local government – and I expect it is- the odds are even more stacked against elected Ministers than the blog suggests.
One Minister who has not been a specialist and usually has little professional knowledge of what he is Minister of will be advised or more usually directed by an ‘expert’ civil servant who supposedly has many years specialist expertise in that field, supported by a huge team of other supposed specialist civil servants in that field. Few Ministers would want to take the responsibility for overruling such specialist (albeit partisan) advice.
Furthermore civil servants are the executives who develop plans and put them into effect. While a Minister (just like Councillors) may veto some plan that their officials are keen on (and that just occasionally happens, usually when the scheme is politically sensitive) that is normally the limit of the power of elected politicians. If a politician has his own idea, the officials are unlikely to do the preparatory work necessary for putting it into effect and it will just be ignored or delayed for as long as is needed to scupper it.
Until a government is able to appoint all its own top civil servants for just the duration of the government (as happens in the U.S.A.) nothing much will change and Civil Servants will continue to set most of the policies and do most of the running of the country.
August 19, 2024
22 illegal economic /criminals arrived in the UK yesterday from the safe country of France âŠ.all welcomed by the government ministers, civil servants and spads alike