If the Chancellor wanted to pay pensioners their winter fuel allowance she could do so. If she wanted to avoid the threatened tax attacks on enterprise, investment, home ownership and pension savings she could do so. The crocodile tears from the government that they do not want to do these things but have to owing to the budget situation are false.
If the Chancellor is bright and understands the OBR and Bank as she should she can see as I can see how you could make different choices, avoiding the unpleasant spending cuts and damaging tax rises. Finding Ā£20 bn would easily fix it. So here are some of the ways she seems to be turning down.
1. Ring the Bank of England and tell them to stop selling bonds at huge losses and sending the bill to taxpayers. No other Central Bank is doing this and the Bank of England says it is not crucial to its monetary policy.
2. The main austerity check is the need to get public debt falling as a percentage of GDP by year 5.For some unknown reason they use public sector debt excluding the Bank of England. If they used the wider definition including the Bank of England, debt would be reduced by the huge cash payments the Treasury is currently making to the Bank, as that cash reappears as an asset at the Bank.
3. Recapture the Ā£20 bn of public sector productivity lost since 2020. just stop external recruitment of admin, civil service and back up staff and run the numbers down by natural wastage.
4. Implement the excellent Labour slogan that if people can work they should work. Provide the support, training and incentives to get more people out of long term worklessness.
Taking the fuel payment away is a calculated Ā political decision. Letting a wide range of threats to tge self employed, to strivers, to savers and go investors worry people for 2 months before a budget is also a political choice. It is driving people abroad, leading people to sell assets, get out of being landlords and selling U.K. shares before the attacks materialise. The danger for the Chancellor is it may prove easier to undermine confidence and depress people than to pick them up again after a nasty budget.
September 17, 2024
Do they want to āpick us up againā? The undermining of the British is not a new thing. We have been told we are not fit to govern ourselves. Not even Swaziland was ever told that. Everything we considered normal and natural to our way of life is either gone or under attack. The psychological impact of this is enormous.
Nothing works, it takes hours and weeks and sometimes years to achieve what should be done in a day, but seemingly nobody can do their job. We are all aghast as politician after politician reveal themselves, that people of that calibre made it into Parliament – actually sometimes Iām amazed that they can support themselves!
If I am not renewing or changing electric contracts, itās communications contracts or fending off phone calls to renew insurance contracts. Many of these 3rd parties āsound likeā the companies the provide, you have to be careful not to give a big proportion of the renewed contract to an unnecessary intermediary.
Nobody is laying down wine in the U.K. anymore. All the bags are at least half packed.
September 17, 2024
Good points Lynn. Having a population that thinks for itself is apparentlly a problem Government will deal with.
On Sir J’s main point about Labour having opitions, I fear many of these actions would simply promise benefits whilst actually increasing State spending and borrowing. The size of the State is the biggest problem we face right now. “Government is best that governs least”.
September 17, 2024
Indeed. Net zero is a policy that is surely designed to cripple the economy amd living standards with zero positives even in the long term zero positives.
Other easy savings:-
Scrap Net Zero
Scrap HS2
Scrap VAT on school fees and abolition of no non dom taxation they will cost more than they raise and damage the economy.
Scrap all the jobs in the state sector that do nothing of value or are of negative value. Circa 50% of them.
As JR says āif people can work they should workā
Scrap most employment legislation the best job protection is if you can walk out and get another job easily.
Scrap all the worthless university degrees over 50% are certainly perhaps 75% and most could be done in 18 months at half the cost & not three years+.
Scrap market rigging in healthcare, transport, housing, energy, banking, education, car salesā¦ free and fair, level playing field, competition please.
Lower taxes and simplify taxes.
Cut the size of the state.
Scrap the BBC propaganda tax.
Cut low skilled immigration to less than 100k PA
Have a criminal justice system that deters real crimes rather as now one that encourages itā¦
Alas Labour like Sunakās Consocialist have the reverse direction planned.
September 17, 2024
How do you do it? You are indefatigable! Every day, without fail, you post the same comments. Are you a bot? No human being could possibly devote the time you do to repeating the same things endlessly.
I imagine someone close to you reading an obituary when the time sadly comes ā¦ āHe was a firm believer that HS2 should be scrapped, that the size of the state should be reduced, that the BBC licence fee should be abolished, that market rigging should be abandoned ā¦ and he argued this fervently, every day without exception, on John Redwoodās web site. His like will not walk amongst us again.ā
September 17, 2024
Well I remember the lesson from Arthur Scargill. Repeat ad nauseam and eventually you get your way.
I object to100k low paid immigrants a year – a millennium maybe!
September 17, 2024
Indeed I meant cut immigration to less than Ā£100k and have little no low skilled immigration.
September 17, 2024
His obit ‘ He had strong opinions and said them relentlessly, now what were they again?’
September 17, 2024
Well that is what is needed but no sign of any of it.
A moronic speech from David Lammy on net zero today. Who writes this scientifically illiterate drivel for him to read out?
September 17, 2024
He wonāt walk among us again? The man who voted to split NI from GB? Oh I do hope so
September 17, 2024
Scrap foreign aid
Stop funding the EU & UN
September 17, 2024
@Lifelogic – we need to keep asking one single simple Question, why are none of our competitor nations saddle with punative, punishment rule and laws. That’s without considering the punishment taxes
September 17, 2024
People are leaving, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/09/14/friends-moving-abroad-nothing-works-here/
Not just millionaires but those in the professions that want private schools, decent housing and sensible energy policies. Does Starmer care, or even notice?
September 17, 2024
Roads that are not deliberately obstructed, ditch net zero, sensible and simpler tax levels, a state sector half the size and properly directed, Lucy Letby released, fair competition in education, energy, transport, housing, healthcare, a justice system that actuall deters crime, sensible high skilled only immigration levelsā¦
An admission that giving dangerous and ineffective Covid vaccines to people who have no need of them was surely criminal and like lockdowns caused huge net harm. The the MHRA needs to be independent and certainly & v. obviously not funded by big Pharma or in the pocked of them. Has Sunak corrected his unequivocal error (surely a lie) to Parliament yet?
September 17, 2024
Sir J, there’s no shortage of Ā£, the BoE can make infinite amounts of the stuff. https://ycharts.com/indicators/uk_money_supply_m3#:~:text=Basic%20Info-,UK%20Money%20Supply%20M3%20is%20at%20a%20current%20level%20of,0.00%25%20from%20one%20year%20ago.
BUT, there is not an infinite demand for Ā£, and that’s our problem. We are running a Trade deficit, https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/balance-of-trade
and there is every sign under this government it will get worse owing to this government’s anti business policies. We will see our Ā£ fall further against other currencies as they find it more difficult to buy our stuff. There IS a limit on our stuff.
September 17, 2024
Hasnāt the pound gone up a bit lately?
September 17, 2024
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02811/
https://www.macrotrends.net/2549/pound-dollar-exchange-rate-historical-chart
Which way will it go under this government….
September 17, 2024
The USD is on the skids. Lost Reserve Currency status. Bidenās little gift.
September 19, 2024
Very relative: ten years ago Ā£1=$1.6, today Ā£1=$1.32 which is similar to what it was at the end of 2019.
xe.com
September 17, 2024
What do you mean by this? It strikes me that laying down wine is a singularly unBritish thing to do. Surely laying down beer, made from the finest hopes from Kent, would be a better course of action.
September 17, 2024
Hops from Kent. Not āhopesā. Kent has lost all hope because of action at Dover.
September 17, 2024
Nobody lays down beer!šš¤£ we invented āchampagneā – we have ancient vineyards, overlooking Tintern Abbey for instance. You lay down wine for the future, when you are confident that there will be a future.
Why am I not surprised that I have to spell it out to you?
September 17, 2024
Because, as a matter of fact, very, very few people in Britain have ever ‘laid down wine’. Most people simply drink it.
September 18, 2024
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-20678565
“Ā£1bn worth of fine wine is buried under the Wiltshire countryside”
https://www.thesun.co.uk/fabulous/11185566/queen-buckingham-palace-wine-cellar-worth-millions-booze/
September 17, 2024
“Nothing works”
I don’t see it this way; many excellent private sector services work hard for their clients and have high satisfaction levels.
I can order a product from Amazon at 10pm and have it delivered free on Prime the next day!
I can go to the supermarket, including on Saturday and Sunday and have a choice of several good, competitive local providers; I’ve never been unable to get what I went to the shop for.
There are plenty of SMEs delivering a fabulous service with easy-to-make appointments, from hairdressers to vacuum engineers.
However, several monopoly service providers give awful services at high costs, private sector but connected to the public sector, like Avanti West Coast.
September 17, 2024
Good morning
I have recently learned that some, if not all, Public Sector workers are on a years notice. If indeed this is the case, how so ?
The more I learn about all the benefits these people get the greater my anger grows. Not through any form of envy, but the sheer incompetence of allowing this to be a thing.
September 17, 2024
Indeed and look at how little they so often do that is of value any positive value to annoy you even further. Many are employed inconveniencing or mugging the productive or doing other things with negative outcomes – things like net zero or pushing worthless degrees or EV cars or destroying/exporting high energy industries.
September 17, 2024
If thatās true, it is remarkable.
āDear Fred, Iām afraid the nasty government is forcing us to cut back a bit – Iām afraid we have to let you go. Hereās a yearās notice. What have you got to say for yourself?ā
āRight, in that case Iām going to do feck all work for the next year.ā
āFair enough, I donāt blame you. How will we notice the difference?ā
September 17, 2024
Even for serious misconduct and gross misconduct?
September 17, 2024
What would that be? Refusing to buy birthday cakes, carry out booze, party balloons?
September 18, 2024
Here are 7 examples classed as workplace misconduct
Theft. stealing isn’t just about embezzlement or money laundering. …
Sexual harassment. …
Abuse of power. …
Falsifying documentation. …
Health and safety breaches. …
Goods or property damage. …
Drug and/or alcohol use.
September 17, 2024
Let them pursue their class driven nonesense SJR , it will hasten their implosion and departure. The last government made many similar errors and look what happened to them.
It will draw ever increasing numbers to Reform. I only hope they fully analyse all aspects of the problems we face and have the solutions to hand and ready to apply.
The first is to have an army of candidates of proven ability who have only been bought by a desire to serve their constituents. They need to have looked at the CS with a view to reducing its size and bringing it back under contractual control. The monopoly service providers equally need a blue print for serving their customers, the people. Work needs to be the mantra for progress, not the nanny state with a dependency culture. As almost everything we do is energy dependent, we must revert to our own resources with a supplier business plan that works for the users while removing government tax take from the equasion. Government needs to redefine its purpose, majoring on defense of the nation and adequate support for those of its citizens who really need it. The tax book needs rewriting to change the motivation of all in the UK to create an enterprise culture. The obvious insanity of cheap immigration must go to a culture where we create via education and training our own workforce.
Our law enforcement must change radically its thinking at the HO and Bramshill. We need thief takers not social scientists of dubious intent. I will end with the removal of Nett Zero the current assurance of our demise and a fitting epitaph to our place on the world stage.
September 17, 2024
Just an update: Bramshill police college closed in 2015, and the site may be redeveloped for housing.
September 17, 2024
I refer to it as an institution not a 7. Whatever it calls itself today, its product is just the same. Politically motivated chief constables who ignore crime infesting the lives of the population.
September 17, 2024
7= building.
September 17, 2024
If we do ever get a reform government what guarantee is there that their MPs will actually deliver? Non of the governments in my lifetime have delivered. Even Thatcher failed to cut the state or taxes back sufficiently, closed many grammar schools, buried us further into the EU disaster, appointed the mathematically illiterate fool john Major as Chancellor, allowed him to joint the predictable disaster of the ERM (against the wise advice of JR and her personal economic advisor). She even fell for climate alarmism.
The BBCās life scientific this week has āPeter Stott on climate change deniers and Italian inspirationā
Who on earth denies that āclimate changesā always has done always will do manking and CO2 are a factor in this one of many but Is there any man made climate emergency – most certainly not.
The BBC and these zealots, in talking about āclimate change deniersā show just how pathetic they are. This man maths at Durham and then Cambridge should know better. He needs to listen to more William Happer types and more real physics perhaps.
September 17, 2024
I’ll be a ‘climate change’ denier here to upset the dangerous authoritarians who get away with their threats. Climate is not changing. Autumn is pretty much here and it’s getting cooler as usual. Winter will follow. Spring will follow that, and then we will have summer.
If we have a very cold winter, the dangerous commenters will call it extreme and thus ‘climate change’, just like they call a storm, as if we have never had bad ‘weather’ before.
September 17, 2024
Meanwhile David Lammy will tell us today that Climate Change is the greatest threat to the UK. Is he not the Foreign. Sec? Anyone sensible who has heard Lammy as an LBC presenter will know he is a deluded dope who think he is very clever, but is he really so dim as to actually believe this or is he just lying?
I suppose government like to big up this invented problem. It gives them an excuse to tax and regulated people to death – then in a few years time they can pretend that they have solved this non problem.
September 17, 2024
Reform have a dilemma on economic policy – should it be free market/small state/Thatcherite or socialist ? In France Le Penn has made inroads with a very left wing economic policy whereas in Germany the AfD have a more right-wing protectionist policy. Reform may need to move in that direction too if they want to start eating into the Labour vote. That would leave no party at all with genuine free market/Thatcherite economic policies.
September 17, 2024
ROY,
When a problem arises you discuss it and come to a decision as to how to deal with it. The only judgement is, has it worked. Only the chatteratti need worry as to the political interpretation of the rectification decision. Whether they conclude it is left right or centre is irrelevant. All they give power to is politics rather than problem resolution. For instance I see illegal immigration as a problem. The solution is to end it, not fret over whether the solution has a particular political leaning.
September 17, 2024
I hope the Treasury and the Chancellor read these excellent suggestions. They are non-partisan, completely logical and they should be able to implement them all. Personally I feel there is an inherent contradiction in the government saying the public finances need to be balanced yet offering inflation-busting pay rises to the rowdiest of public sector workers.
All pay rises should have had efficiency and productivity conditions attached or they should not have been paid on this scale. It is another example of the selfishness of Socialism.
September 17, 2024
Indeed.
āoffering inflation-busting pay rises to the rowdiest of public sector workers.ā That is about repaying those largely funding of the Labour Party I assume. Like giving a No 10 pass to Starmer and his wifeās dresser.
So why is declaring gifts and vested interests sufficient – they are still gifts from people with vested interests usually looking for paybacks or honours and very often getting them.
September 17, 2024
Weāve still got enough money to fund the commonwealth games in Glasgow 2026
September 17, 2024
“It brings to an end the 18-month dispute, which saw junior doctors take part in 11 separate strikes. But the BMA warned this must be just the start of a series of above-inflation pay rises or there would be “consequences”.
Basic in 2022-23 Ā£29,384 to Ā£36,616 a year, they typically make 25% to 30% more on top in extra payments for additional work and unsocial hours. They had already received 9% and 8% so now have 11% per year to look forward to + 4% backdated increase for two years.
I wonder what this increase is in billions for each of these years? They will no longer be called Junior Doctors either; their title has changed to “Resident Doctors”.
September 17, 2024
or even ‘Registered strikers?’
September 17, 2024
In or out of government the left still control Britain because they control the state, the public sector, the cultural sector and the main avenues of news and propaganda.
My advice is not to listen to Tory bullshit. They had fourteen years to smash and dismantle the Left’s entire apparatus of power and control, they actually strengthened it and funneled further funds into it.
The debate about tax, spending and who buys Starmer’s wife’s (clothes Ed)has now become redundant and farcical.
Expose the evil of the Left or else this ship will in time sink. It’s happening in the US. I see Hillary Clinton (one of Obama’s foot-soldiers) was on TV last night still demonising Trump. It isn’t gonna end well pond side.
The Left is on existential threat.
September 17, 2024
Re your point 3, Sir John. As GB News reports, around 20,000 civil servants were hired within the last 12 months of the Conservative government. When the Tories recently in power indulge in job creation schemes for civil servants, there’s no chance that Labour will do any different. Once again we see that the party label on the government machine hardly matters. The system needs Reform.
September 17, 2024
Preparing for redundancies of ‘last in, first out?’
September 17, 2024
The Establishment has been undermining national confidence for decades. In order to get the UK into the EU it was necessary to destroy our sense of national pride and belief in our ability to run our own affairs.
That’s what Two-Tier is doing now. He wants us permanently shackled to the EU and has a twin strategy:
1. Make us both nationally and individually economically/financially vulnerable
2. Demonstrate that “working cooperatively” with “our European friends” achieves results
He is pursuing (1) by deliberately making the elderly (ie Brexit voters) poorer and less secure; by making our energy supply even more reliant on foreign imports/inter-connectors; by further weakening our industrial capacity and ability to defend ourselves with the extreme Net Zero policies Miliband is pushing through
And (2) by trotting off to Germany and now Italy to try and get them to help stem the flow of criminal migrants across the channel; by pursuing the common UK-EU “security pact.”
He has no desire to boost national confidence, or any intention of doing so. This is a Punishment Parliament and that’s all we’ll get unless and until we have a Government which puts the interests of the British people first.
And we won’t find one of them by re-electing another branch of the Westminster Uni-Party.
September 17, 2024
It seems so Donna. This morning we are consuming 32.4Gw of electricty, comprising 26% of renewables, 18% of imports and 28% of gas-fired power. Fortunately, none of this electricity is heating my home this morning (or will power my car when I go shopping later). I’m quite happy that is the case as I currently pay just over 6p/Kwh for gas but four times as much (24p/Kwh) for my electricity.
September 17, 2024
Until the legal and illegal immigrants are stopped by measures to remove the attraction, they will keep coming regardless of what Italy, Germany and France talk about it.
September 17, 2024
You have to laugh at Giorgia Meloni-when she came to power she suspended Italy’s involvement in China’s BRI (Italy was controversially the only G7 country to have signed up).Now she has had to go crawling back to Beijing-there was a five day visit at the end of July which resulted in the signing of a new “Memorandum Of Industrial Co-operation.”
Politico,29/7/24:”Italy’s Meloni vows to ‘re-launch’ relations with China.”
It is also interesting to note that for face-to-face meetings Washington now has to go to Beijing,rather than vice-versa.US National Security Advisor,Jake Sullivan was there two-three weeks ago.There was a press photo of him together with President Xi.One of them had a slightly worried look on his face.It wasn’t Xi.
September 17, 2024
the worried look was due to Americans not always allowed home!
September 17, 2024
Theresa May described Conservative as the āNasty Partyā over 20 years ago, then about 15 years later attributed the same term to the Labour Party. Both parties are nasty sometimes. Labour became most inclined that way on gaining power at the last election, and have only just begun to bite deepest.
September 17, 2024
She was so wrong, it should have been the ‘Submissive Party’.
September 17, 2024
The Conservatives became the nasty party under Mrs May.
September 17, 2024
It is not very good is it? But who among us expected anything different.
More free clothing donations, anyone?
September 17, 2024
I see it reported today that Martin Lewis has written to Milliband to inform him that 19% of smart meters installed are not working properly, well what a surprise.
Yet another farce of a policy.
Why is it that so many expensive Government policies fail, is it lack of initial investigation, lack of pre planning, lack of supervision, lack of required knowledge, lack of contractor choice, lack of common sense, it certainly is not lack of spending our money !
September 17, 2024
The Government canāt do anything. Be grateful, it will save us in the end.
September 17, 2024
Greg Smith asked why the chancellor wasnāt going after the BoE regarding the bond selling and money losing rather than taking this drop in the ocean from pensioners.
Chancellor replied that she had worked at the BoE and respected its independence!
No mention of freezing hardship etc.
September 17, 2024
The Chancellor learned from the lesson handed down to Kwarteng and Truss. Go against the IMF and you’ll very quickly find yourself out of a job.
September 17, 2024
Afraid the simple reason is the plan to redistribute the peoples money at all costs no matter how much is wasted.
Political dogma and the politics of envy
I see it is being suggested in reports that even the abolishment of the Ā£175,000 element of your home value is under discussion to be removed from the Inheritance Tax allowance.
What a great incentive that would be for those planning to purchase a home in the future,
Get into mortgage debt only for the Government to take back 40% (if it stays at that) of your house value when you die
September 17, 2024
Iām hoping they donāt reduce or abolish the Ā£175k allowance against your house. As I understand it, it is Ā£175k each for couples (married or partners) and that after one dies, their Ā£175k transfers to the surviving partner. So, if my wife predeceases me, as long as my property is worth less than Ā£350k, my heirs will have no inheritance tax to pay in regard to the property. If the above is true – I have already downsized once – I will downsize again if I have to. They are not getting a penny of the money I worked hard for 48 years to build up.
September 17, 2024
There will be a rush to draw equity and spend it on luxuries instead of eating cheap, and shivering.
September 17, 2024
The previous government added Ā£716bn to National Debt over the 5 year term. With 14m voting Conservative, that’s Ā£51k for each Tory voter for just one parliament.
Add in the other governments the people vote in over a lifetime, and 40% of Ā£175k doesn’t look so drastic.
September 18, 2024
Dave
I did not agree with that either !
September 17, 2024
These political calculations will prove to be miscalculations that define this Starmer government. Social media is already carrying shrewd parodies of ministers on their “justifications” of their policies such as to cut the winter fuel allowance or shut down complaints.
September 17, 2024
Afraid the simple reason is the plan to redistribute the peoples money at all costs, no matter how much is wasted.
Political dogma and the politics of envy
I see it is being suggested in reports that even the abolishment of the Ā£175,000 element of your home value is under discussion to be removed from the Inheritance Tax allowance.
Get into mortgage debt only for the Government to take back 40% (if it stays at that) of your house value when you die
A great incentive for future buyers when it has been paid for out of taxed earnings.
September 17, 2024
Very insightful re depression caused by this terrible slow motion budget.
Maybe they actually WANT to lose rich plumbers etc? Get landlords to sell up to global companies?
I would also think that the dire politics of the workplace are incredibly off-putting.
Itās IDSās ālogical choicesā all over again.
September 17, 2024
A majority of the voters who are still alive come the next GE ‘ will not forget’.
A one-term disaster decided already?
September 17, 2024
The govt. has maybe forgotten that older people mostly have relatives.
Older people often provide their families with child care ( in a warm house) and meals ( cooked with expensive fuel). Laundry services too! ( Taxi service also impacts on spending)
It is good for families and society to have comfortable, helpful, available grandparents
( And if it werenāt for divisive socialism families would be a great deal more supportive)
Now the younger generation will have to put its hands in its own pockets
They will NOT see the axing of Winter Fuel Allowance as being ānot their problemā.
September 17, 2024
You’re not keeping up Everhopeful.
The socialists hate the advantages that children get from parents reading to them.
They find it distasteful that one couple can obtain free childcare when another can’t.
They hate the bank of Mum & Dad and the thought of some inheriting when others don’t.
They did discuss all this before the election.
September 17, 2024
Sigh!
Yes. I Know!
The point being that Labour will enrage those who otherwise might have supported them.
It is not just pensioners who will suffer from pensioners being impoverished.
September 18, 2024
This is just the start of the impoverishment.
September 17, 2024
The only person I have met who believes Rachel Reeves is competent and doing a good job is a senior civil servant.
He also believes civil servants are much more productive when working from home.
September 17, 2024
well he would, wouldn’t he?
September 17, 2024
Bet he think Kamala is the bees knees too š¤Ŗ is his name āKierā?
September 17, 2024
5. Sell the Met Office. The main function seems to be Climate propaganda, using low grade measuring stations near urban heat sources. There are weather presenters for every day of the week used only by GB News. The office in Exeter is luxurious and employs many long range forecasters who produce forecasts that don’t work. It has been gifted the largest computers.
Netweather employs 2 forecasters and 2 website designers working from home. Their forecasts are available in detail and with real time maps showing rainfall. Other websites also give worldwide forecasts instantly. The Met Office is a complete waste of taxpayer’s money.
September 17, 2024
Agreed, Stred. Especially since the Met Office comes under the MoD, I believe, and our depleted military could certainly use the funding to replenish stocks, after throwing away so much of it in Ukraine.
September 17, 2024
It used to report to MOD, not for the last few years.
September 17, 2024
Stred, and where do you think the clever clogs at NetWeather get their maps if not from national weather centres like the MetOffice?
Do you really think that NetWeatherās two forecasters and web designers are dealing with the hundreds of Gigabytes of satellite, plane, buoy, station data available in near-real time 24 hours a day?
September 17, 2024
Once youāve written programs to suck data from the APIs that various weather data providers provide, you donāt need loads of people to process the data. You just need the computing power.
September 17, 2024
What the NW people are doing is ingesting, one of way or another, the results of national weather centres (US GFS, US GEFS, MetOffice, ECMWF Hi-Res, ECMWF EPS) and make an average or a weighted choice of the solution they prefer according to their own criteria. Fair enough. But whatever their criteria are, they do not run an analysis of the meteorological measurements: they rely on the work of others.
And this Ā“choiceā or Ā“averagingā can be run on a desktop computer, no need for the type of massively parallel computers now used by the USA NOAA/National Weather Service, MetOffice, ECMWF or other national services.
It is a bit like the provision of energy in the UK, there are the providers (those who run the oil/gas extraction/processing plants) and there are the (parasitic?) intermediate people in contact with the customers.
September 18, 2024
But hefner, if the measuring sites have a low level of accuracy as stated by Richard’s post, then the averaging or weighting will not remove that inaccuracy.
September 17, 2024
Stred :
Almost 85% of all Met Office sites are NOT deemed acceptable for climate data reporting purposes by the World Meteorological Organisation and International Standards Organisation stated requirements.
79% are junk status :
49% class 4 +- 2 degrees C
30% class 5 +- 5 degrees C
Furthermore of the 302 Met Office sites quoted, over one third (103) do NOT even exist. Their data is entirely made up from measurements from other sites, we presume.
This is in addition to the use of thermocouples to measure temperature which can record 1 minute highs when jet aircraft pass by.
There is no way the Met Office can be relied upon for climate data.
September 17, 2024
goodnewspost.co.uk 17/09/2024 āMetOffice delivers Ā£56 billions of economic value to the UKā.
BTW I never worked for the Met Office, but contrary to most of the contributors here I have/had a good idea at what modelling of various physical phenomena entails, both what it can and cannot do, something I guess out of reach of people whose computer experience is using a mobile phone or at most putting the weekly earnings into a Microsoft Dynamics 365 Business Control software.
September 17, 2024
hefner.
Thank you for reminding us yet again, that your skills are way beyond nearly everyone on this site.
PS
Tell us, do you accept the factual details in Richard’s post above?
September 19, 2024
The WMO produces monthly/seasonal comparisons of objective scores of meteorological products from various national weather centres.
community.wmo.int āRegional climate centresā, 2020.
community.wmo.int ā
wmo.int 26/08/2024 āGlobal seasonal climate updateā.
(You might have to update the dates for more recent comparisons).
Also http://www.ecmwf.int , then click on āView all chartsā.
In charts.ecmwf.int after more than 100+ plots specific to results from the ECMWF models, there is āVerification of other centres (upper air)ā that compare US NCEP, UKMO, Japan JMA, China CMC, Meteo-France and ECMWF for the anomaly correlation of the geopotential at 500 hPa, plus a few more plots comparing various centres.
All that for free and produced every day/week.
Other intercomparison products are available but one needs to register (for free) to get access to them.
MW, PG, do you think that NetWeather produces this type of info daily, globally?
September 18, 2024
You may be extremely good at computer modelling but you are blind to the big picture. I have read the report. Basically it provides no analysis whatsoever of any alternative meteorologic services. Soit povides no clue as to wthere the Met Office is doing a good job or not. It is basically a cpmparison Met office services as they are, versus a hypothetical case of rudimentary services versus no services at all. And lo, there are huge benefits of having a met office. Who’d’a thunk it? For example the largest share of benefits is attributed to aviation:
“Market-based estimates capturing the value of regulatory aviation services as a World Area Forecast Centre; and avoided cost approach estimating the value of efficiency improvements (e.g., fuel saving, better routes) from weather forecasts to aviation. ”
The report does not ask weather these services could be improved or provided more cheaply. Perish the thought of either. In the case of aviation it isn’t clear whether it takes full account of the cost of non-UK resources used by the Met Office, meteorological data sharing, the contribution of non-UK meteorolgical services to UK aircraft, etc.
Since the Met Office is one of the driving forces behind all the scaremongering about Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Change (CAGW), the costs of all that should also be attributed to the Met Office.
Oh yes, BTW I have some experience of business analysis of resources in space for a range of services including meteorology and other fields for both governments and private enterprises.
September 18, 2024
An excellent post Peter.
I see our resident self defined expert hefner has gone very quiet.
September 19, 2024
I had in a post on 17/09 (that was never published) pointed out what the MetOffice as part of MoD was providing in terms of
āspecial forecastsā for the British troops in Yugoslavia, Iraq and Afghanistan.
September 17, 2024
Let us recall per Lord Moynihan that the governmentās net annual borrowing is now an unsustainable 4.4 per cent of GDP, with our overall national debt rising steadily.
I have assumed some of Chancellor Reeves’ gloom is aimed at keeping Labour back-benchers in line (rebellion is of course an easy option when the government majority is large) for she likely has but little scope for meeting the many spending expectations of the Left. Her attack on pensioners may signal a very serious intent to correct government finances with many more such measures to come affecting many classes of recipient. Alternatively, she may just be making a mess of things.
September 17, 2024
I wonder where the Ā£226B owned by students appears in the books? Assuming a large chunk of it (30%?) will never be repaid, that’s Ā£68B someone will have to write off….
September 17, 2024
You should find out how much of it is outstanding to graduates who aren’t in the UK and thus don’t pay the graduate tax of 9%.
September 17, 2024
Well said.
The prior announcements were indeed meant to invoke fear, for labour have no time for the aspiring middle classes. The old they see as a drain on resources and want their earthly tenancy cut as short as possible.
We also know the alleged Ā£20Bnn black hole was an invention they now use to punish us all and prepare us for worse days to come. There is no mystery because they follow the steps outlined in an official government report: Absolute Zero. Certainly population reduction is something they want.
Let’s not imagine the labour government are working for our good – they are NOT, and have already shown that openly. So don’t expect any let up in their dire management of the UK, especially on the subject of taxation. We are their subjects and we will be pushed along the route to de-industrialisation and poverty…and worse!
September 17, 2024
I have a better idea. Go through government spending line-by-line and cut out waste and unnecessary spending. If the Chancellor can’t save at least Ā£100 billion from a Ā£1.2 billion budget, around 8%, then she is useless.
Sadly, the previous conservative chancellors were equally useless.
When will they realise it is our hard-earned money they are wasting and stop robbing pensioners to fill a non-existent black hole?
September 17, 2024
Large companies (in financial difficulty) would simply implement a complete hiring freeze Keith – not even a ‘One In, One Out’ policy. Labour could start by running down the surplus hires acquired since Covid by not replacing leavers. The only exempt areas should be the military and police and that strictly confined to just uniformed staff.
Apparently CS numbers increased by 15,400 last year. Assuming an average UK salary of Ā£35K, that’s about a Ā£540M increase in payroll just last year (not including pension and other benefits). The other thing any hard-up company would do, would be to cut back on outside contractors & services (which to my mind would include a lot of the Quangos). Just let contracts expire and don’t renew them. Of course, other economies include halting most air travel and strict expense controls. Many of the current Government have never managed anything larger than a Student Union, so I wouldn’t hold my breath though….
September 17, 2024
Just reform welfare and time limit it. No claim again for two years. Stop expecting tax payers to pay for feckless idleness. A hand up not a hand out. Stop paying all immigrants welfare for at least 10 years. No immigrants accepted below positive tax payer contributions. The OBR produced the relevant figures. Deport all illegals.
September 17, 2024
Correction to earlier post – 801 arrived on the 14th and 292 arrived 15th, ….. yesterdays arrival numbers still awaiting correlation by home office
September 17, 2024
Update – 65 arrived yesterday the 16th
September 17, 2024
the person counting arrivals on the quay got fingers tangled up, and had to start again.
Quite a job, that one.
September 17, 2024
They never tell us how many irregular immigrants (new govt terminology) arrived by lorry, ferry or aeroplane
September 17, 2024
I wonder, Mr. Redwood, if you have any interest in Reform. As a Conservative, I imagine you have more affinity with Reformās general policy position than the current Conservative Party?
If you do, I wonder if could in some way influence Mr. Farage. He, it strikes me, is both an asset and a liability. An asset because he has such a high public profile and a liability because he sometimes says and does such stupid things. He doesnāt need to involve himself with Trump. Anyone in this country with a few functioning brain cells thinks Trump is a buffoon. Likewise he doesnāt need to ever mention Putin.
These gaffes are seized on by the media who seem to universally despise him. If he doesnt make gaffes and stops legging off to the States every five minutes, actually works as a constituency MP and turns Reform into a national, properly organised, election fighting machine, he could actually win the next election and save this country from its current death spiral.
Reply I make my views known in public and am usually happy to discuss them with people involved in public policy who are interested. Reform has never shown any interest. Some Conservatives are showing an interest.
September 17, 2024
The government could make big savings by cancelling its twin policies of uncontrolled immigration (legal and illegal) and Net Zero.
With regard to Net Zero, they could stop subsidising the wealthy buying their āgreenā toys such as evs and roof-top solar panels.
The Government aims to save Ā£1.5bn/year from 2025 onwards by cutting the pensionersā winter fuel allowance. At the same time they are prepared to subsidise the wealthy to the tune of Ā£4.5bn/year to install 600,000 heat pumps/year at Ā£7500/heat pump by 2028.
September 17, 2024
These are all sensible suggestions, but clearly anathema to the Treasury, or they would have been put into effect long ago. Rachel Reeves may be bright, but I suspect she is no more likely than her Conservative predecessors to possess the character to go against the advice of her officials.
September 17, 2024
“Rachel Reeves may be bright”
I’ve met lot’s of ‘bright’ people over the years William, who were sometimes pretty useless when it came to actually getting things done. You only have to listen to some academics to know that theory and practice are often very different beasts. Being a policy wonk doesn’t neccessarily make anyone qualified to run an economy (or even be a shrewd politician). Most of the recent pronouncements have been political (rather than economic) and on that basis, I’m not too impressed thus far.
September 17, 2024
Can I concentrate on just one major Labour mistake. Undoubtedly there are many well off pensioners who do not financially need a Winter Fuel Allowance. I didn’t when I lived in Spain, despite a few 0Ā°c nights, but it was sent anyway. If Labour were thinking logically it would in effect be deemed income. Then anyone receiving more than Ā£12,500 pa in income would get WFA less 20% or Ā£160 instead of Ā£200. No need to get too excited over Ā£40, and no need for intrusive means testing. Just do not pay WFA to anyone subject to the higher rate of tax. All the information is available to HMRC and DWP so no problems in execution.
I can only conclude that Labour thinking is that pensioners do not vote Labour. Rather than ask themselves why pensioners shun Labour, they seem to indulge in a bit of class warfare and get it wrong, ending up scraping egg from their faces. Labour in voting capacity are knarl handed men of the soil. Labour in political power are distinctly middle class users of men of the soil, with a confirmed record of inability to run anything. The next five years are a time when men of the soil realise that Labour are a failure in spades.
September 17, 2024
This woman is out of her depth. She is too young to be in the position as she obviously has not had work positions that have taught her about life in general and how it affects people. I worked in a bank years ago when you had a manager who sat in his office and helped people who had monetary problems. This lack of empathy to human beings is something I have not seen for some time.
September 17, 2024
Its all fine we are going to create greater productivity by having the right to stay at home
According to the Business Secretary ?
Wow that’s amazing all that big infrastructure this country needs & we are going to build it by staying at home
What joke
September 17, 2024
What does Reform say on all of these economic actions you advise?
I have only ever heard about immigration from them.
September 17, 2024
Have a look at their contract before the last election. They have policies on everything – not just immigration. Of course, it may suit your narrative to say they only have policies on immigration. You need to investigate a bit.
September 18, 2024
No, Mike, they need to talk about more than immigration. People don’t go seeking out manifestos; we’ve all seen they’re not worth the paper they’re written on. I understand by just googling this that Nigel calls his pledges a contract.
September 17, 2024
Since 1984 the immutable mindset is to ruin GB and consequently the UK.The powers that be think backwards and can’t help their perceptual problems but with these insistent and persistent attacks on the British,not only will our country be destroyed but also any influence for the good globally will be overcome. It is as though a template has been made and they can’t steer away from it.Bots Mike?
September 17, 2024
From today’s Telegraph – there is a Ā£200billion shortfall in the UK governments Ponzi Scheme, the goldplated pensions for ‘the few’ that’s never seen as part of earnings as it would be in the Private Sector. These being rewardeds for the same people that want to punish the pensioners
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensions/gold-plated-public-sector-pension-shortfall-costs-taxpayers/
Ponzi Schemes in law are an illegal act, but we are dealing with 2TierKier the communist activist that has ‘them and us’ are his core philosophy
September 18, 2024
Our Socialist Government seems to have forgotten its ideological basis:
Stalin put it this way in the Soviet Constitution of 1936:
“From each according to his ability; To each according to his work.”
Labour’s philosophy seems to be: ‘From each according to his inclination; To each according to his greed and envy?’
September 18, 2024
Stalin was merely quoting Karl Marx.