This website does not talk a lot about the Conservative party any more following the big defeat. It rightly concentrates on the government, as it did when Conservatives were in office. However, we do need a good Opposition and so I am doing a piece about the Conservative Leadership race. The choice of the best candidate to become Leader of the Opposition does matter, as he or she will have the first right of reply to government in the House, have five questions every week to the PMÂ and the right to choose the debates for Opposition days. They will also need to decide how the Conservative party deals with the 7 million voters who left it for Reform or to abstain.The 5 Reform MPs will also develop their own role as an Opposition party.
How have the four Conservative candidates performed in Opposition?
Perhaps the best test of them is to see how they have spent their first three months in opposition and to see how successful they have been.
Robert Jenrick has made a number of successful attacks on Labour policy despite not being a Shadow Cabinet member. He has provided a good critique of the Prime Minister’s conduct, of the migration failings, of the bad international negotiations and of the freebies and donations.
Tom Tugendhat shadows the Security Minister. He sent him a good will message on appointment and has failed to attack him for anything that comes up on a Google search. Indeed many people do not know the name of the current Security Minister, Dan Jarvis because his faults of commission and omission are not highlighted by his Shadow. He is responsible for reducing organised crime and for counter terrorism. There are plenty of issues over foreign criminals, illegal migration, the handling of the Middle East and UK self sufficiency in protection and defence items to pursue.
Kemi Badenoch shadows Angela Rayner. She has been spoilt for choice over whether to highlight the freebies and lifestyle, the failure to come forward with planning legislation despite the urgency, the lack of understanding by Rayner of the importance of mortgages and interest rates to the housing market and the likelihood Rayner will not hit her ambitious housing targets. The only Google result is a general condemnation of Rayner for not having “a clue what she is doing”
James Cleverly shadows Yvette Cooper. He did engage when Cooper sought to exaggerate the costs and minimise the advantages of the Rwanda scheme. He has not followed through more recently in detail.
How did they perform in government?
Robert Jenrick tried hard to control legal and illegal migration. Frustrated by a lack of support from the rest of the government he resigned over the need to firm up the policy and did good detailed work on the backbenches putting to government practical ways of delivering Conservative promises on immigration. He showed he had got it before the electorate passed their verdict on broken promises.
Tom Tugendhat did not use his post as Security Minister to make important changes to the control of our borders or to tackle organised crime. Nor did he use his power to speak and influence on defence matters to increase our national self sufficiency in weapons or seek to give us a better Iron Dome type defence. I never heard him express any views in private that wanted change to a government that was clearly letting the country down.
Kemi Badenoch who now speaks eloquently of the need for less regulation and smaller government as Deregulation Minister took out the main measures of repeal from the EU laws Bill that had passed the Commons . She blocked many good ideas for less and better regulation put to her by MPs. She did not lead positively on the closure of steel works, the compensation and need for improved management at the Post Office, or the impact of net zero policies on the car industry, usually leaving these key issues to junior Ministers in her department.
James Cleverly did put in agreed proposals to reduce legal migration which are now having an impact. He did not accept amendments to the law proposed by Robert Jenrick and others to get flights off to Rwanda sooner to increase the deterrent effect.
Conclusion
I recommend that MPs vote for Robert Jenrick and James Cleverly to go to the members for decision. IÂ expect Tom Tugendhat to be dropped in the next MP voting round, and think it likely Kemi Bademoch is dropped at the final MP round.
October 6, 2024
Frankly SJR, I cannot see any of them having a serious opposition impact. Even were they to, it is very doubtful the parliamentary party would give them unquestioning support. Conservatism is on life support in Parliament.
The big voice in opposition will I hope come from Reform, in quality if not in frequency, due to their numbers. They are busy building their case on social media and in the constituencies, in anticipation of local elections and the next general election. Your sort of conservatism now only resides in Reform and the country at large. I am sure they would be grateful for the level of financial expertise you and the likes of Liam Halligan could bring to the party. The task of resetting the UK is a monumental one so please do your bit, publicly or below the horrizon, as you think fit.
October 6, 2024
Non of the candidates are tories in the true sense of the word. They are all tainted with being part of the mass failure of the last government.
The current incumbents are going to continue to slash and burn our country with the only opposition coming from Reform.
It matters not one iota who is selected to oversee the final death throes of the once mighty conservative party.
October 6, 2024
@Ian wragg +1
October 6, 2024
+1
My thoughts as well, traditional Conservatives will stick with Reform if they can grow a big enough Party in time for the next election whenever that may be.
October 6, 2024
â Frankly SJR, I cannot see any of them having a serious opposition impact. Even were they to, it is very doubtful the parliamentary party would give them unquestioning support.â
Sums it up concisely.
Conservatives have said nothing of worth since losing the election. Many will have noticed they have gone missing but how many will be that bothered?
I do not think they will change. They will hope that buyersâ remorse and Bugginsâ turn will get them back in power. They are also hoping support for Reform will somehow disappear.
October 6, 2024
Good morning
What, it has taken your party (I assume you are still a member) three plus months to choose a leader ! Mrs.T was gone and replaced in days ! Your party faffs around whilst Starmer and his mob run riot. All planned and agreed I would argue. Ergo – Lack of Opposition. Anyway, we all know its going to be the Diversity Hire đ
Oh I think the ‘Dear Deputy Leader’ knows more about housing than you give her credit for, Sir John, Know what I mean đ It ain’t just dresses, but address as well.
She is in good company, and not just on her own benches, but the ‘Opposition’ (sic) Benches too ! I would say something about pots and kettles, what with them being much alike, but it could be misconstrude given that the Diversity Hire comes under the pot bit. Don’t want the ‘Thought and Hurty Word Police’ tapping on my door.
What concerns me most, and I have said this here many years ago, is that for our so called democracy to work, it has to have an effective Oppostion Party to hold it to account. But the Conservative Party and those running for its Leader are so tainted with failure, you might as well leave the Little Usurper in charge. It’ll do him some good.
October 6, 2024
+1. The best they could all do is get different jobs and recommend Tory voters select another Party to follow: one that behaves like a Conservative one.
October 6, 2024
@Wanderer +1
October 6, 2024
None of the candidates have completed their apprenticeships; so I agree, there is going to be precious little effective opposition from the PCP. Ms Baddenoch was real disappointment, she talks a very good talk but when she had the power she buckled.
I’m beginning to wonder about Mr Farage; is he just getting too comfortable to be bothered with the madness and risks of politics?
October 6, 2024
Like Starmer, why show your best weapons when little is to be gained? Sitting back and let the Party in power hang itself….time will show.
October 6, 2024
If you do the maths based on the OBR figure of each low skilled migrant costing tax payers ÂŁ500,000 and 4 million low skilled migrants (there are probably double that) then you end up with a cost to tax payers of ÂŁ2 trillion. This figure doubles the national debt. Possibly triples the national debt.
So the question becomes what does this debt look like. Itâs not in the form of Gilts or financial contracts.
This debt is what I will call âimmigrant debtâ.
Immigrant debt needs to be paid for not in the form of financial repayments but in the form of benefits, council houses, prisons, health, schools etc. In other words immigration debt takes the form of Government spending and flys âunder the radarâ.
To hide this debt the Government can stop publishing the figures and can claim you are a racist if you want to know them. Itâs latent, permissive, inflation linked debt.
The biggest signs of this debt is that Government services fall by becoming âdilutedâ.
Another sign of this debt is that Government borrowing becomes limited so that instead of borrowing money they have to spend the debt directly on services.
Hiding spending, falling services and limited borrowing are three key features of Government over the past year.
October 6, 2024
In the time since the election none of those candidates have come close to putting in the effort and providing the eloquent critique of the government that you have done Sir John. Nor has Mr. Sunak, despite taking the salary.
None of the candidates has explained how they will go about leading c. 100 Lib Dems/ social democrats who will not wish to be led anywhere a Conservative would want to take them. Those candidates who are themselves amongst the c.100 perhaps consider there is no need of course.
October 6, 2024
Exactly right, F57.
October 6, 2024
+1
October 6, 2024
Kemi is the preferred choice of the members so this would prevent then getting a fair choice. Cleverly is rather tedious and certainly not remotely clever. He was also it seems in favour of the Chagos policy.
Cleverly says broadly the right things now but how can we possibly trust him? Plus he moronically still believes in the Net Zero lunacy He reminds me of cast iron David Cameron low tax at heart, thin gruel, Euro Sceptic, I will stay on and deliver either outcome of the referendum vote, abandon ship, tax to death daveâŠ
October 6, 2024
A tweet from Clare Coutinio
So now we know:
Winter Fuel Payment – wonât raise any money
Schools Tax – wonât raise any money
Private Equity & Nom Doms Tax – wonât raise any money
Turns out Rachelâs politics of envy doesnât pay and itâll be the public who are stuck with the bill.
All true but she is another fool who either believes in Net Zero or lies that she does. She should add Net Zero and carbon capture total lunacy. The market rigging in energy, EV cars, education, housing, transport⊠all mad.
Indeed from that huge tax levels left by the Con-Socialist tax increases in general will raise not more tax and kill growth and the UK tax base. As will open door low skilled immigration.
Reply Good points. Claire is doing a great job as Shadow Energy.
October 6, 2024
Claire Coutinho rather.
On Any Questions yesterday, the four panelist were asked about Carbon Capture three supported this ÂŁbillion down the drain lunacy, the other was a green zealot who was against it as he sees it as a ruse to keep using gas, coal and oil.
The sensible answer is obviously we should keep using fossil fuels and not waste money and energy capturing the net beneficial CO2. Typical BBC panel. I listened to Any Answers to see if any of the public would put them right. But they devoted the who of the programme to the Assisted Suicide debate which the lefty, touchy feely, dopy presenter insisted on absurdly calling it âassisted dyingâ at least she did not go for âassisted passing awayâ.
October 6, 2024
Well yes good points but she has a half maths degree (albeit only from Oxford) so she should be able to understand that net zero is lunacy, carbon capture is lunacy, CO2 is net beneficial, EV cars safe no CO2, heat pumps are pointless and impractical in general.
So is she lying and pretending to want net zero for political reasons or has she actually fallen for this mad religion?
October 6, 2024
I accept your views on the performance of the candidates but am sorry you didn’t mention Tory principles which to me is the key issue. Only Kemi Badenoch recognises that – so far. She therefore will get my vote.
Reply Kemi failed to implement Conservative principles as Business Secretary, undermining moves to less regulation.
October 6, 2024
If you members are allowed to vote for Kemi and not stitched up. If Kemi does get in will she be removed by the generally dire Tory MPs as Truss was?
Very clever of Sunak and the BoE to blame the appalling economic mess Chancellor Sunak & the BoE left on the few days of poor Truss who was broadly right if rather clumsy.
October 6, 2024
If the Tory leadership hopefuls had spoken out vigorously against what the Labour government has been doing, they would probably have had to reveal their own policy preferences. They might even have been tempted to stand up for this country’s national interests, who knows. Then they would have lost support among some of the Tory MPs who are going to be the voters in the leadership election. My sense is that the bulk of these characters are globalist-progressive in outlook (whether or not their electorates are). To be elected, the new Tory leader will have to tack in their direction, I believe.
October 6, 2024
It seems in the GBNew Boris interview this AM (after 9.30 I think) he is still proud of his vaccine roll out and even the Astra Zenica Oxford disaster rapidly with drawn by most countries and by the UK eventually. Clearly he either has not looked at the dire abundant stats worldwide or they are beyond him or he cannot face the truth that they did far more harm than good. Anyone youngish or who had had Covid never needed than anyway.
The things he got wrong:- Botched half Brexit, the lockdowns, the masks, the net harm vaccines, the vast covid loans and âsupportâ, vastly high tax levels, trusting his Theatre Studies wife on the net zero lunacy.
October 6, 2024
Boris also failed to grasp the problem that the MHRA was funded and hugely compromised by Big Pharma an absurd conflict of interest. He chose duff experts who gave him duff vested interest advice. Boris has come round to the Lab Origins after gain of function but this was obvious very early on.
October 6, 2024
The fact that the UK kept pushing the AZ vaccines long after the problems of Blood clots in combination with low platelet levels (thrombocytopenia) were observed is another huge scandal. Reported very early indeed from Japan I think.
October 6, 2024
Interesting assessment based on fact not froth. Frankly the whole of the shadow cabinet has disappointed by their failure to,âgo for the throatâ on Labourâs obvious failings, culturally Sunak is not like that, so you have wasted all these months since the eoecyion.
Looking at the pathetic squabbling that has been going, denial about why you lost and an almost pathological refusal to accept Reform needs to be dealt with, not ignored, I have zero confidence in the future of the right.
It needs a reset and take out their commitment to PR and seek accommodation. A fractured right will always allow Labour in and the Lib Dems to pick up scraps.
October 6, 2024
There’s a leadership election for the Conservative party ? Who knew……….
How long does it take for heavens sake. While the Consevative party procrastinate. Two-tier Keir and Co. are getting away with their failure and fiddles.
For me it’s a two horse race; Jenrick or Badenoch. In the event either of them win. I would like to hope the loser is offered a cabinet position.
P.S. Tugendhat is my MP. Inspiring he ain’t
October 6, 2024
But are the Con socialist net zero loving MP about to nobble Kemi and deprive members voters of any real choice?
October 6, 2024
We will find out on Tuesday.
October 6, 2024
After all this time, still navel gazing, trying to present worthwhile candidates for Leadership and failing – the Party is still doomed, the ship heading for the graveyard of the rocks unaware that steering away is required.
Starmer and the rag tag must be thinking ‘do what we said we would – nothing in the way’.
October 6, 2024
James Cleverly is getting considerable positive exposure in the Conservative press for his leadership campaign.
Cleverly is a popular, middle of the road One Nation Tory who has shunned the divisive policies of the right, which were so decisively rejected by the electorate at the last election. A reserve army officer, he was one of the few cabinet ministers prepared to visit swing constituencies in support of Conservative candidates during the campaign. Many feel that he epitomises the “common sense” brand of Conservatism that the middle class usually espouse.
Cleverly recently wrote:- “For the Conservative Party to win the next election, we need to resell our conservative values, be the party of prosperity, and remake the argument for capitalism. We need to prioritise driving economic growth, not through high migration but through lower taxes and cutting regulation, and by giving working people a bigger stake in our society.”
Outstanding. The Party would do well to elect James as the new Leader
October 6, 2024
He has no chance in a members vote and he is being pushed so as they to give members no real choice. He is too dim for one thing, he makes even John Major lock competent.
October 6, 2024
âhospitality & management studiesâ at Ealing College of Higher Education it seems.
October 6, 2024
the Conservative Press being?
October 6, 2024
The Conservative Party is on the verge of extinction as a significant Party that can challenge for power because:
-No Leader has ever left it weaker or in a worse mess than Sunak
– Most Conservative M.P.s are worse than useless, lack realistic political judgement and would be incapable of even holding their seats against any serious local challenge
– About two thirds of the electorate would not vote Conservative at the the next General Election without very compelling reason to do so because of the mess Sunak made of being in government
The next Leader must provide the vision, inspiration and compelling reason to vote Conservative to save it from extinction and wrest power from Labour at the next election. A mediocre Leader which the Conservatives could previously get away with when the Liberal Democrats and Reform were not posing an existential threat to them is no longer survivable.
So far as I can see none of the 4 candidates are better than mediocre, if even that. Boris Johnson would probably be good enough but I can’t see him putting up with a long period as leader of the Opposition when he now has a wealthier and easier life elsewhere. The only remaining M.P. who might be good enough is Suella Braverman, some (but not yet all) of whose analysis immediately after the election, that the Conservative Party risks extinction and that it must apologise for past mistakes and past broken promises are belatedly being taken up by some of the candidates.They still haven’t realised the rest of her analysis that they need an accommodation with Reform and they need real leadership rather than platitudes about unity is correct. I think she would be the only hope for saving the Conservative Party.
October 6, 2024
excellent points well made.
October 6, 2024
Sir John, your first paragraph sets out the rights of Opposition in Parliament. They are available already but us, the electorate, seem starved of information. Is that due to media starving, or lack of using the opportunities available? It is as if a cabal is in place. Some democracy, eh?
Reply The main reason is Parliament has been on holiday for most of the time since the election so the official Opposition loses its privileged platform. That however should not stop these Shadow Cabinet members trying bombard the media and social media. It needs a majority of MPs to get Parliament recalled.
October 6, 2024
So are they bombarding media, or does Media consider there is no story to sell?
Reply Why do you not read what I write? I was pointing out 3 of the candidates who are in the Shadow Cabinet are not bombarding the media about government failings in their areas!
October 6, 2024
Sir John
None of them inspire. If as they are, the only choice available there has to be another leadership election before the GE. None of them appear to know what it is to be a Conservative; they might have fared better alongside Ed Davey.
One of your suggestions wears his religious badge front and center, understandable itâs a family thing. But that also makes him divisive and less appealing to the majority whom are at best neutral. His comments on the UK Armed forces where uncalled for, out of touch and damaging to people who put their life on the line for this Country. Disloyalty writ large â should anyone trust him?
Then we have the guy who âserved in the armyâ you know. Yet is undecided as to whether he is French or British as he holds joint citizenship; his wife even works in a senior position for Macronâs Government. He is unsure himself as to where his loyalties are, so we should also question those loyalties.
Kemi appears to talk a good talk, but on the face of it isnât coordinated with action.
James Cleverly, more in the shadows as far as general public awareness goes. Then we realize this week he is the one that instigated the handing over of BIOT. Particularly galling when there was no basis for it, let alone a discussion. The people of those Islands were not consulted and it looks like wonât be allowed back.
All four have a major flaw as collective responsible individuals in Cabinet of the failed administration so they own the failings of the last administration, they are the continuity of failure. Which is why whichever one is chosen for there to be a return to Conservativism and a Conservative Government there will need to be another leadership contest â the sooner the better.
October 6, 2024
From today’s Telegraph.
Polling by Opinium found that 32 per cent of the population believed that Mr Cleverly was the most âpreferred or acceptable optionâ.
But it was Mr Jenrick who was considered the most unacceptable Conservative leader among all voters.
As always the political shuffling of the party organisers and the Parliamentary Group will shut down choice, get comfortable with the status quo and then wonder why it has still gone all wrong
October 6, 2024
Who cares.
The Tories delivered our freedoms, our culture and our people into the arms of the Marxists and the fascist Left because they loathed being slandered as racists. That’s it, it is that simple. The sniveling rat that is Cameron, this weasel, this snake fell to his knees and paid homage to the left’s cultural and demographic agenda.
It’s finished. The nation is lost. We can all see it. Starmer will drive the final nails into the coffin over the next 5 five years
The Tory party will now never declare open war against Labour’s Socialist leviathan (party, institutions, unions, public sector, activists, NGO’s, BBC etc etc etc etc etc etc and bloody etc) but will simply hop on board as an act of self protection
October 6, 2024
Well Dom, the people out here care. The problem being who represents us? Gradually C.Central Office starved the Party in power of anybody who resembled a Conservative. Ducking issues, the slippery slope gave in to the pathetic socialist and EU nipple sucking feeding. The ‘reset’ visit of Starmer couldn’t be clearer.
Assisted dying is topical…..politics too!
October 6, 2024
How can the Conservatives be an effective opposition when they, in many cases, instigated the very policies Labour are delivering. The only opposition we will see over the next 5 years will be from the Reform party.