The last government held a multi year spending review setting out spending plans for the 3 years 2022-3 to 2024-5. They would have held another this autumn to set 2025-6 to 2027-8. The absence of plans from next year means the new government can set out new plans without needing to amend old ones.
The government has decided it cannot deliver a 3 year spending plan this year, delaying it until spring 2025. Budget 2024 therefore needs to set out a one year spending plan for 2025-6 pending the longer term plan. The budget as always will also review progress with this year’s spending against plan, a plan set by the outgoing government.
The government has chosen to have a row about the adequacy of provision for this year. Their alleged £22 bn overrun of spending includes £11 bn of extra pay largely brought on by their choice to put pay up by much more than inflation which the original estimates allowed for. The second big item is more than £6 bn extra for migrants, in part the result of illegal crossings going up this summer as the new government scrapped Rwanda and struggled to control numbers. The original overall budget did include a contingency fund as there are often overspends in year.
Press reports say Cabinet Ministers are angry that Treasury Ministers are asking them to consider reductions in spending to offset increases they wish to make. This is a normal process undertaken by past Labour as well as Conservative governments. It is important Treasury challenges spending streams. Total public spending has surged from £852 bn in 2018-19 to £1226 bn this year, a rise well ahead of inflation. Any budget for next year needs to start by reviewing what all that money is spent on, why public service productivity has fallen and whether some of it like Bank and railway losses is avoidable.
Too many Labour Ministers think increasing public spending is a good. Delivering more and better public service in NHS and schools is a good. Doing it more efficiently at lower cost is better. When I go into a shop I do not want to know they have just spent more on running the shop. I want great products at good prices.
October 19, 2024
This Labour government have arrived at the table totally unprepard. The first 100 days have been marked by Starmers nose being discovered in the trough, paying off their union supporters, class envy, and empty promises on immigration. In fact their solution to resolving illegal immigration, a crime no less, is to vet them into legality or just ignore them. The coming budget will be indicative of how long they can stay in power.
Your analysis treats them as a normal government, not in the historical context of Labour governments of old. Their financial competence has always been flawed by too many vested interests to pay off. The irony is that an equally incompetent reign of a so called conservative government put them in power. I suspect you want goverrnment played to a set of eternal rules like golf. Too many players are cheating, effectively destroying the game. We need the great reset that Kimi Badanoch hinted at, but that only Reform are likely to give the UK. More of is no answer.
October 19, 2024
“Total public spending has surged from £852 bn in 2018-19 to £1226 bn this year, a rise well ahead of inflation” – so much for austerity then (as you have shown hitherto).
Yet another opportunity for Mr. Sunak to make a devasting critique in his budget reply.
October 19, 2024
I want great products, good prices, convenience indeed. But above all freedom and choice and a level playing field so I can go elsewhere should other offer better.
But what we have been offered by the Con Socialist Tories like Gove for 14 years (see his first tedious article as Spectator Editor) and now even worse from Labour is a Government knows best system. A rigged energy market, transport market (trains and buses hugely subsidised cars hugely over taxed and drivers mugged), car market rigged, education market rigged, healthcare rigged, housing rigged, restricted planning, soft university loans for largely worthless degrees…
If this rigged market is such idea why not tax people even more then give them half price groceries, fashion items and other product at state run shops. That should go well. All to have electric Trabant cars with a range of say 10 miles between charges after a 15 year wait – unless Starmer thinks you are “extreme right” in which case you walk.
The policy of VAT on private school fees is exactly the reverse of what is needed. Nearly all schools should be privately run and give people vouchers and tax breaks and freedom of choice. The same for the NHS. The more who go privately the better for the tax payer education and healthcare.
October 19, 2024
The government is spending £1.2 trillion, this is a disgrace because it’s over 50% of GDP
We really need s collapse of confidence in government borrowing so it is forced to drastically reduce spending. I would bet at least 25% of this expenditure is waste and could be slashed
To start with the civil service could be halved and their golden pensions culled.
I find it obscene that a train driver gets an inflation busting pay rise paid for by taxing my pension and cancelling my WFA.
Reform are ahead in the polls
Maybe we can soon read the last rites of the uniparty.
October 19, 2024
More like 70% is wasted and about 40% is surely spend doing positive harm as I list above. Net Zero the largest insanity. 31months in jail for a foolish tweet for example or the Lucy Letby injustice and the sick jokes of the Letby and Covid inquiries, the net harm vaccines, net harm lockdowns, the bonkers energy policy…
October 19, 2024
Public spending is budgeted in advance. So under the last five years of the Conservatives in office, public spending rose by nearly 50% to this year. If that was OK with the party now in opposition, why would the party now in power do any different?
Reply It wasn’t OK and they lost!