U.K. interest rates

The Bank of England has cut their base rate twice now. They have put their inflation forecast up after the budget and said this means fewer rate cuts and slower rate cutting from here. The budget was especially inflationary, pushing up public sector pay a lot with no productivity agreements and confirming higher managed energy prices. The whole disastrous energy policy means dearer energy going forwards.
The budget also pushed up longer term interest rates with knock on to mortgage rates. The ten year government bond borrowing rate surged to over 4,5%, a higher level than after the short lived Kwarteng budget when the Bank was hiking rates and announcing huge  bond sales. These market moves reflected justified concern about all the extra borrowing the government proposes after its rule change.

The bad budget according to Bank forecasts as well OBR forecasts will raise inflation and slow growth. Whilst both bodies are often wrong, on this occasion I agree with them that the budget measures are likely to slow growth from 2026 and push up prices sooner. These forecasters had to up 2024 growth forecasts because earlier this year they clearly under estimated and had to revise up recently because we enjoyed good growth in the first half.
The U.K. has a very bad public sector productivity problem and is wasting far too much money in the  public sector. The government should urgently cancel £19 bn of carbon capture spend, abandon ideas of an expensive HS  2 extension, control Bank of England losses and set out a productivity plan for public services.

 

61 Comments

  1. Mark B
    November 10, 2024

    Good morning.

    Very much agreed.

    With slower growth and increased costs in the Private Sector such as ENIC etc there will be less tax returns and an increase in government borrowing. Borrowing that is getting more expensive and harder to justify.

    Many here have, for many a year, been pleading that the government needs to reign in spending. It seems to think that the more that is spent the greater the chance of keeping the economy going (not growing) and avoid another recession or even a depression. This can kicking can only go on for so long before the Markets lose confidence in Sterling.

    There is going to be a breaking point when we finally say, “Enough is enough !”

  2. David Peddy
    November 10, 2024

    Agreed . And it sums up this so called ‘government’ entirely . Incoherent, badly thought out and counterproductive

  3. Ian Wraggg
    November 10, 2024

    It’s not much use complaining about HS2 or carbon capture. They are just continuing where the tories left off.
    Yesterday Clare Courtinho wrote about the wrongs of liebour energy policy
    Her government brought in net zero and the stupid quotas for cars. We now have mass layoffs all over Europe benefitting the Chinese.
    The BoE and OBR got rid of Truss who at least had a plan. Both organisations staffed by leftards will do nothing to stop the devastation coming our way.

    1. Narrow Shoulders
      November 10, 2024

      Quite, too many of those who rule us are in thrall to the eco-mob

    2. Mark B
      November 10, 2024

      +1

      The getting rid of Liz Truss was the Blairite legacy in action – ie Out of office, but still in power via the institutions.

      1. Lifelogic
        November 10, 2024

        Very clever of Sunak and that dope at BoE to blame all the economic problems and inflation they caused with their QE, currency debasement and vast government waste, lockdowns, loan fraud and net harm vaccines on Truss. Then Sunak even had the cheek to claim credit for taking inflation from the 10% he caused back to less than half by crippling the economy with the Hunt budget. About the only clever thing Sunak did was blaming his error on Truss and Kwateng.

        Then the appalling Sunak misled parliament that ‘Unequivocally the Covid vaccines are safe’. Was this a blatant lie or is he just hugely ignorant. Then to cap it all he handed the dire Starmer a huge majority by throwing in the towel six months early. Someone the other day described Sunak who buried both Boris and Truss as a decent man? Really.

        1. Berkshire Alan
          November 10, 2024

          Another Sunak mistake was to hold the elections earlier than most people expected, when he could have pointed to lower inflation and lower interest rates as they are now, he still may not have won, but certainly the margin of loss may have been less.
          What on earth made him go early if he thought his plan was working ?

          1. Narrow Shoulders
            November 10, 2024

            Rwanda!

    3. Original Richard
      November 10, 2024

      IW :

      The Conservative Party, in particular PMs May and Johnson, pushed hard for Net Zero and continue to do so. The CPP aided the OBR and BoE to remove PM Truss.

  4. agricola
    November 10, 2024

    If it is not too libelous, this fantasy government is financially incompetent if not incontinent. Not one of them has ever run anything for profit, having enjoyed 14 years of opposition they have promoted themselves way beyond their talents. Even worse, every move they have made to date has been laced with venom. I view them as a blatant danger to the United Kingdom.

    While it is down to the opposition to verbally oppose, and I am sure Kimi will give it her best. However we all know that her rump parliamentary party, who are supportively wet of socialist theology, would never be truely Conservative were they returned to power.

    This government of ours will hang on to power for as long as they can. The only advantage being that they will strengthen the case and support for Reform as Labour progress with their malevolence and incompetence. It would be foolish to contemplate that the Conservatives in their present construct could ever pursue the policies necessary to put the United Kingdom back on the road to wealth creation across the nation. Like Labour, the Conservative Party are one of narrow vested interest, with no future relevance. Both parties have turned slavery into a barely discernable fine art that has no future in a successful United Kingdom.

    1. Mark B
      November 10, 2024

      While it is down to the opposition to verbally oppose, and I am sure Kimi will give it her best.

      I am sure she will ‘put on’ a very CONvincing performance. One designed to make people believe that she is on their side.

      Too many here and elsewhere happy to sup from the Tory Koolaid. When will they learn ?

      1. Donna
        November 10, 2024

        “It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled.” No-one likes to admit they are gullible.
        Attributed to Mark Twain.

      2. Lifelogic
        November 10, 2024

        Indeed Kemi is a good performer but she is still a pusher of Net Zero and has some truly appalling fake Conservatives supporting her. But then more Tory MPs are just Socialist in essence like Gove, Warsi, Sunak, Cameron, May…

        1. jerry
          November 10, 2024

          @LL; “Kemi is a good performer but she is still a pusher of Net Zero”

          As was Mrs Thatcher by 1987 and that years manifesto, or at least the precursor of Net-Zero. And like in 1987 what matters is selling future policy, the Tories were making the case for new nuclear in that ’87 manifesto, against Labour policy for ‘King Coal’. It is to far to early to second guess the whys and wherefores of how Kimi will ‘sell’ the Party’s energy policy come the next election.

          1. Martin in Bristol
            November 10, 2024

            Lady Thatcher was not a pusher of net zero.

          2. jerry
            November 11, 2024

            @MiB; Oh for pity sake, try replying to what I actually said, stop replying to what you think I said!

            Go read the Conservative manifesto of 1987, here is the relevant paragraph under Energy policy subheading;

            The world’s resources of fossil fuels will come under increasing strain during the 21st century; so may the global environment if the build-up of carbon dioxide the so-called “greenhouse effect” significantly raises temperatures and changes climates.”

            .

          3. Martin in Bristol
            November 11, 2024

            Calm yourself Jerry.
            ps
            Your quote doesn’t mention Net Zero.

      3. agricola
        November 10, 2024

        I think I made it clear that Kimi does not have MPs support for fundamental reform, to make the party electorially acceptable again.
        CPHQ needs an enema, such that candidate selection is in the hands of constiuency members. Policy direction should also derive from members who need an open forum on each subject at conference. Kimi also needs to build a strong relationship with constituency chairmen and people of confirmed talent from outside the political circus.

        1. jerry
          November 11, 2024

          @ agricola; Somewhat weird assertions there, considering current Tory MPs voted for Kimi in sufficient numbers for her to be on the final ballot, and then the local branch membership voted in significant numbers for Kimi to become leader. You make it sound as though Kimi became leader via a non-contested coronation.

          Any political enemas need to be taken by those who (still) think Reform are the solution; come the next conference season remember MPs travel arrangements: a Taxi for Reform, a bus for the LibDems, a Boeing 727 aeroplane for the Tories, a 777 for the Labour party…

      4. jerry
        November 10, 2024

        @Mark B; “[a performance] designed to make people believe that she is on their side.”

        Yes, it is said by some they see Kimi as another Margret Thatcher…

        “When will they learn?”

        When common sense prevail, when those wanting reform realize Reform is part of the very problem that needs reforming!

    2. Original Richard
      November 10, 2024

      agricola : “It would be foolish to contemplate that the Conservatives in their present construct could ever pursue the policies necessary to put the United Kingdom back on the road to wealth creation across the nation.”

      Correct. Unfortunately however this also means they cannot be an effective opposition. The current construct is in favour of mass immigration, Net Zero and high spending to justify high taxation. Opposition will have to come from elsewhere.

      1. Original Richard
        November 10, 2024

        PS : If the Conservative Party was true to its name and was conservative with a small ‘c’ it would not be changing the electorate by mass immigration, changing our affordable and reliable hydrocarbon and nuclear energy with expensive and intermittent renewables and would not be incurring high wasteful spending to justify high taxation.

        The Conservative Party, just as all our institutions, has been infiltrated by the Far Left. Consequently the elections we have for our Parliament are currently a pretence that we are voting for opposing ideologies. They are all working towards the removal of private property, whether through Communism or through WEF ‘you will own nothing’ feudalism, to achieve the total global control they seek.

  5. Mike Wilson
    November 10, 2024

    I think they should use retired former business owners – as volunteers , not consultants, to undertake a cost/efficiency analysis of v public sector office or department. I would happily do my local council.

    1. Mickey Taking
      November 10, 2024

      I think a lot of us would volunteer to ‘do’ our local council, but perhaps not the way you suggest!

    2. IanT
      November 10, 2024

      The Wokingham Lib Dems have just emailed their constituents to inform them that the Council Payroll will take a £1.5M Employers NI hit, together with a £2M increase ‘Care’ costs. This £3.5M extra will simply be passed through in increased rates of course. All this nonsense about not taxing “Working People” – who do they think pay Council Taxes? You cannot add £25B to employment costs and not have it bleed through to end consumers.

      1. Mickey Taking
        November 10, 2024

        We haven’t seen that email. I would like to know the employed headcount for the last say 3 years, and the total staff costs. How could I get that information?

        1. Mike Wilson
          November 10, 2024

          Freedom of Information request. Quick! Before they repeal it!

        2. IanT
          November 10, 2024

          It was in Friday’s ‘Residents Roundup’ MT

          “The autumn budget statement did little to address our concerns, and we will see our costs increase by £1.5 million for National Insurance and an additional £2 million for care cost pressures associated with the increase in the minimum wage.

          This means we now must find at least an additional £3.5 million next year. Each year we receive a government grant to help fund our services, but the amount for next year will not be known until mid-way through December”

          As for the H/C data you’d like, i imagine it would be in the Council’s annual accounts and probably available online somewhere or directly from Shute End. Worse case, a Freedom of Information Request..?

  6. Lifelogic
    November 10, 2024

    Exactly, the budget was hugely inflationary and hugely anti-growth and with the Net Zero rip off energy lunacy on top. They want to increase public spending by £70 billion with a plan to waste almost all of it. Reeves thinks she will get increased tax take by £40billion, but many of the tax increases will actually raise no tax at all just push jobs and wealth overseas. The budget, more taxes, more government and net zero are the complete reverse of what is needed after the Con socialists just more of the same lunacy.

    1. IanT
      November 10, 2024

      But we are up to a whopping 13% Wind electricity generation this morning LL! Of course we are having to Import 17% to keep the lights on and Gas is doing the heavy lifting at 43%. Still much better than in recent days, when we have been in the Doldrums in more than one sense.
      Fortunately our new A+ rated gas boiler is keeping us toasty at a quarter of the price (per KwH) of electricity!

      1. Mickey Taking
        November 10, 2024

        It got very bright for about half an hour prior to sunset. I was very puzzled, but my wife suddenly exclaimed ‘that must be the sun!’. A very brief burst of charging via those panels people have.

  7. Donna
    November 10, 2024

    You’d be forgiven for thinking the Budget was designed to create Stagflation: inflation, through unfunded pay increases in the public sector and even more borrowing to fund projects which will never generate a profit or growth; and hammering the private sector which has to pay for it.

    Perhaps it was … all part of the Establishment’s attempts to get us back into the EU and to deliver the Great Reset. The “Destruction Phase” has been ramped up. Is it deliberate or are they really economically ignorant?

    1. agricola
      November 10, 2024

      For sure they are economically ignorant. All they have done to date is veneered with class envy and the destruction of enterprise. Their latest nasty little gesture is to save a miserably small amount by failing to support our cadet forces. More class envy based on the perception no doubt that all cadet parents are middle class Tories. This cabinet and governing party are truely dreadfull.

    2. Mark B
      November 10, 2024

      +1

      High inflation and high interest rates are the millstones used by the Marxists to destroy the Middleclass. According to Lenin at least.

    3. Mickey Taking
      November 10, 2024

      Both.

    4. Lifelogic
      November 10, 2024

      +1 the budget for growth that in hugely anti-growth in every single measure the foolish reeves pushed.

  8. Narrow Shoulders
    November 10, 2024

    Money should cost a realistic amount, if only to stop governments borrowing huge sums to bribe sections of the demos with.

    The budget is inflationary, Rachel Reeves and Sir Two Tier are going to pump large amounts of cash into public services while private sector costs increase to pay for it. Perhaps the authoritarian, interventionist left think recession will prevent inflation. They are after all insured against it with their jobs, pensions and pay rises for life in the public sector.

    It is time to cut the state. It will be interesting to see if President Trump can do in his second term what he failed to do in his first and reduce the size of the state. Even he likes to borrow to spend.

    Lest we forget on this day – it is our money and our lives.

    My sincere thanks to the fallen and those who serve.

    1. Mark B
      November 10, 2024

      +1

      We will remember them.

      1. Mickey Taking
        November 10, 2024

        Many will say they remember their fallen, injured, mentally damaged, and the distressed families left after them.
        Many days have events that trigger my awareness of family’s share of the result of wars.
        Passing of so much time doesn’t soften the pain.

      2. MFD
        November 10, 2024

        We will remember them.

    2. Lifelogic
      November 10, 2024

      +1

  9. Lynn Atkinson
    November 10, 2024

    They simply do not have the capacity to anticipate. They will therefore only learn when they hit the wall. The sooner they hit the wall the less collateral damage will done.

  10. Bryan Harris
    November 10, 2024

    The government should urgently cancel £19 bn of carbon capture spend, abandon ideas of an expensive HS 2 extension, control Bank of England losses and set out a productivity plan for public services.

    That would be a start, but it won’t happen – we’re going back to the 70’s in terms of economic damage and we will likely see strikes mounting up again, alongside rubbish uncollected in the streets.

    Apart from the initial blair years where labour followed Tory spending plans, the labour party only knows how to spend and waste our taxes. If anybody is expecting them to do anything useful with the economy they need to change their glasses for plain ones.

    Nobody, markets included, thinks much of this recent malicious budget. It attacks everyone for having any get up and go, as well as those that have accrued some wealth by their own hard work.
    Some are calling this a rogue government – they certainly are not working for our benefit!

    As for inflation, there is only one way that labour will drive that, which is up, up and up some more, along with the cost of living.

  11. Dave Andrews
    November 10, 2024

    I fail to see grounds for growth. Where is that going to come from? The government has stifled British business yet further with their employer’s NI hike and the assault on employers with further regulation. For our business, growth will rely on our success where global competitors fail for their own reasons. The tax hike won’t destroy us in itself, but it does mean less for staff bonuses and investment.
    What I expect to see is more businesses to fail (they tend to anyway), and then not be replaced. After all, who would want to be an employer in this environment? For those that remain, well the promise from the government has been doom and gloom, so expect them to put investment plans on hold at least until there’s a change in government.

    1. Lifelogic
      November 10, 2024

      +1

  12. William Long
    November 10, 2024

    The outlook must indeed be dire for the OBR to express any sort of concern. But one cannot escape the conclusion that the Treasury and the Chancellor are in lockstep about what is being done to the UK economy.

  13. Rod Evans
    November 10, 2024

    Welcome to the world outside Westminster Sir John.
    Those of us outside the Westminster Village have been talking, as you now do and to be fair have been doing for a long time.
    You can ask/plead for sensible actions and policies to be enacted and promoted by MPs and civil servants but now, as experienced by the rest of us, you can only ask. From experience be assured, you will not get any of the sensible policies you feel are necessary for national success.
    Being positive now, the big feature that may change in the coming months and years is the Trump impact on Western policy towards the Net Zero/Climate Change nonsense.
    With a bit of luck, real scientists will now be asked to advise policy makers and perhaps (just perhaps) the faux scientists along with the non scientists Greta, Al Gore, John Kerry. AOC and too many others to list will be ignored.
    We can but hope.

  14. Roy Grainger
    November 10, 2024

    With a four day week about to become standard in the public sector I expect productivity to fall rather than rise.

  15. Original Richard
    November 10, 2024

    “The whole disastrous energy policy means dearer energy going forwards.”

    Yes, and that’s the plan! And don’t forget the designed intermittency (renewables rather than nuclear) which means that demand will need to match the weather determined supply using “customer engagement” and “behaviour change” – euphemisms for dynamic pricing going to infinity as the amount of available energy decreases to zero followed by the eventual rolling blackouts.

    There is no CAGW. Climate history and science shows this to be true. So there is no need for the “Net Zero” solution for the West. In fact “climate action” is only #13 on the UN’s list of sustainable goals.

  16. Ian B
    November 10, 2024

    The real question to be asked has these entities the Bank of England, the Office for Budget Responsibility improved any thing for the people of the UK or the Country itself?

    Both owe their very existence to the overburdened Taxpayer; both have been contrived by those that created them to be beyond political reach. That should be seen as bordering on criminal, anything that requires the Taxpayer to dig deep in its pockets, should by its very nature have direct political control, meaning democratic oversite, accountability and responsibility. The BoE since 2022 has cost the taxpayer £45 billion of their hard-earned money – does the taxpayer have a choice, a voice?

    That brings us back to my original question has the BoE since its chosen path, improved the Country and its people since 1998. Or is it still the same as it would have been those 25 odd years ago under Treasury therefore elected Government control? Like wise the OBR now 14 years on and what is the gain. That also begs the question has the BoE improved the Country and its People since the Labour Government nationalized it from being a self-financing private entity with a few hundred years of proven track record. Then as now Labour just wanted Socialist Control of the Country out of spite.

    The other question posed is now that the Treasury has lost the jobs as BoE and the OBR have their numbers and cost been reduced accordingly?

    Interest rates have become not about the Country but personal self-esteem.

    It is of note that it is reported in the media that Trump is unhappy with the the FED’s direction and is contemplating bring it back under Political Control.

    The BoE, the Fed and the ECB appear to be personal empires working in unison for personal interest and not the job at hand

  17. Ian B
    November 10, 2024

    Any sane Government would just take control of expenditure. Growth does not come from Government spending money they have removed from the economy.

    Growth comes from the money in the economy circulating around and becoming self feeding

  18. Margaret
    November 10, 2024

    I Heard inflation had got down 1% and set to be more or lesser steady.

  19. Margaret
    November 10, 2024

    Less .. predictive text again

  20. formula57
    November 10, 2024

    Reeves looks to be charting a course set for failure, with a measure of rescue needed in due course from a return to artificially low interest rates from the Bank. It must be doubted that the Bank will be able to oblige.

  21. glen cullen
    November 10, 2024

    572 criminals arrived in the UK yesterday from the safe country of France …I’ve just returned from remembrance to the news that we’ve been invaded by 572 fighting age men

    1. Lifelogic
      November 10, 2024

      Indeed well each one cost about £41k in food, hotel bills and other benefits. My son working for over 40 hours a week gets a bit more than half this in pay as a junior doctor after deductions and his commuting costs. This before his large student loan repayments.

      The government clearly want to attract largely unskilled boat people including many criminals yet push good doctors and other hard workers overseas.

    2. Original Richard
      November 10, 2024

      gc:
      Invasion = Immigration without integration

    3. Peter
      November 10, 2024

      GC,

      572 equals more than two army companies, but not quite a regiment.

      1. glen cullen
        November 10, 2024

        @1,500 in the past week

    4. Donna
      November 11, 2024

      I’m convinced it’s the consequence of an unspoken “deal” with Macron that “we’d take our fair share.”

      1. glen cullen
        November 11, 2024

        I agree – there can be no other reason for the French & British inaction

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