Remain wrongly forecast a hit to U.K. exports of goods and services when we left the EU. They said the hit would be up to a 15% decline, which would mean a 4% loss of GDP. Â They still use this in their commentaries on Brexit and it was baked into OBR forecasts. Whilst saying this could take 15 years to complete, they thought the bulk of the loss would happen quite soon after Brexit.
So what happened? U.K. goods trade continued to grow with the EU after we left, and grew faster with the rest of the world as it had been doing when we were a member. Services trade boomed in the years after we left. Time for apologies and red faces?
Apparently not so. Most keep reporting a bad forecast as a fact. Maybe they havenât checked the data. One study earlier this year sought to dig Remainers out of their gloomy hole by arguing that whilst trade had gone up and not down it should have gone up more so we should still not a theoretical loss against these recently inflated expectations!
All this becomes relevant as President Trump threatens the rest of the world with tariffs designed to cut exports into the USA. The USA is the UKâs biggest trade partner by far, and we have a good growing trade with a U.K. surplus. It is good news we are out of the EU and can do our own trade deal with the US. The government should be proposing a trade deal to Mt Trump and should be using its Brexit freedoms to avoid the likely tariff war the EU seems to be planning. We should start by announcing we will not copy the EU carbon based tariffs they are bringing in against the US and others.
Facts4eu have published some excellent tables and graphs setting out the U.K. trade success post Brexit.
November 13, 2024
Good morning.
The biggest damage done to the UK economy was COVID, not BREXIT. But you do not hear much about that.
Hmm. Not too sure about either to be honest. We still follow all EU Regulations and, this government like many before it is only too keen to drag its heals on this issue. There seems to be a reluctance to ‘diverge’ away from the EU as much as possible. I wounder why ? đ
November 13, 2024
Not Covid itself but the absurd over reaction to Covid and the vast waste of money on Net Harm lockdowns, masks, test and trace apps, PPE fraud, Covid loans & grants, the vast borrowings and QE. Errors by Boris, Sunak, Handcock, the Big Pharma funded MHRA and all the largely deluded duff government âexpertsâ.
How is Van Tam getting on at Moderna amd is Sunak quite absurdly claiming the vaccines were safe?
November 13, 2024
‘LL
“Tesla mogul will head up Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to âdismantle bureaucracy and slash regulationsâ” .
This is desperately needed here in the UK send shockwaves through the Govt waste machine that has been blocking our progress.
Maybe it has prompted Wes Streeting to say “The Public expects us to sack failing NHS managers” for starters ….
November 13, 2024
First thing fire all the people doing the many things that do positive harm to the economy. HS2, Net Zero, the war on landlords, the vat on school frees, the war on motorists, the rigged energy market, the road blocking. the absurdly complex tax system…
November 13, 2024
Actually the Tesla mogul is a joint head of this new organisation.
Is appointing 2 people to do 1 job a great example of government efficiency?
November 13, 2024
“Over reaction” is being too kind to the treacherous people in authority who took every possible advantage of the outbreak to advance globalist’s agenda.
November 13, 2024
And the personal profit agenda for them and their mates. Who funds the MHRA but big Pharma? Who thought that was a good plan? Same problem surely with the net zero fraud, HS2, many red tape over regulation projects, the war on landlordsâŠ
November 13, 2024
Claire Coutinho our Shadow Secretary of State of Climate Change and Net Zero just now on Talk Radio. She is still absurdly sitting on the fence over Net Zero we want it be not so quickly – Claire has sort of a half maths/phlosophy degree from Oxford and so must surely be bright enough to know the whole things is a total fraud/scam.
So when is she going and Kemi going to come out Trump style and point out the Net Zero drivel pushed by the Tories, Cameron, May, Boris, Sunak and herself for 14 years was a total fraud, lies and complete Batsh**t as Emily Maitlis might put it or “Scatological” as Kemi seems to prefer.
November 13, 2024
I forgot about Carrie Johnson the great climate and energy “expert” with her Art History and Theatre Studies degree.
November 13, 2024
She says Labour Policies on meat and dairy are going to turn people of the entire agenda. So is she for the net zero agenda or not? Time for you and Kemi to decide dears and admit you have been talking B/S?
November 13, 2024
“off the entire net zero agenda” surely that is what we want? We need the BBC, universities, MSM, many charities, the school syllabus, school exams, international organisations, governments, the Committee for Climate Change, the past living PMs all to admit they have been pushing essentially lies or at least vast exaggerations. If Trump alters the research grant funding most of the “minds” of these university professors will follow I suspect. We need to fund a team of climate realist scientists to counter the propaganda.
While they are at it they need to fire the MHRA who failed so badly on Covid Vaccines and replace with an truly independent honest and competent body. Follow the money in this too.
November 13, 2024
LL :
The Senior and Parliamentary (Commons and Lords) sections of the Conservative section of the Uniparty have invested so much political capital in CAGW & Net Zero that they have no way to row back without looking fools. Even if they know it is a hoax.
The only solution for them is either to offer a referendum on Net Zero or leave politics.
Labour, Lib Dems and Greens know it is a hoax and that an 81% reduction in CO2 emissions from 1990 levels by 2035 will destroy us.
November 13, 2024
Remainers are like the Net Zero fanatics, possibly the same people
They don’t do facts just hypothesis.
If we get tariff free trade with the USA it will be down to Farage and his relationship with Trump. It will be interesting to see 2TK squirm if offered tariff free trade when he really wants to cosy up to Brussels.
Of course he will put the interests of the country last because he hates us.
November 13, 2024
“Of course he (Starmer) will put the interests of the country last because he hates us.”
Seems so, the Starmer/Reeves budget is the complete reverse of what is needed for growth. They surely cannot really think if will be good for growth can they. Mind you she did read PPE and he is a lawyer – so perhaps they really do? It is certainly good for lawyers!
November 13, 2024
2TK will not squirm,
after the bare faced nonsense he proposed for us yesterday at the money making conference he’s got no conscience or brain.
Man is so insignificant in this world he cannot have any effect , any he does is a mere scratch on the surface.
but it will destroy US.
He and Minibrain must GO!
November 13, 2024
But will Trump want to do a trade deal with the UK now that it is governed by Starmer’s doctrinaire Labour party? From the US perspective, the UK is on a path to the destruction of much of its farming and business capacity through a combination of high taxation and regulation to promote net zero plus the highest electricity prices in any western economy. It is notable that in a recent Bloomberg discussion the UK was not mentioned as a country to support the rapid expansion of the next generation of data centres needed to support AI LLMs, whereas France, Nordic countries, Canada and Australia were. Politically a Trump led USA and a Starmer led UK could not be much further apart.
November 13, 2024
DA :
Let’s hope President Trump makes Starmer an offer he cannot refuse.
November 13, 2024
Trade was just an arguement for not leaving. Remainers attachment to the EU was much more fundamental, a desire to be part of what they saw as a socialist ideal. Being part of it gave them a sense of achievement and purpose as they had lost faith in the UK as a viable entity. They are essentially losers, the opponents of the creative . The enemies of the self employed, the theorists in almost any subject. There is not a Francis Drake amongst them. While I can sympathise with the founding fathers who fought and survived WW2, thinking that a united europe would cancel european wars. I suspect they did not take into account human political behaviour that is essentially selfish. You cannot create a monastry out of the whole population.
Unity and singular purpose can be achieved as we see in the USA, but the founding fathers need to be great visionaries witb excetional faith in people living within a constitution. Ours never have been, being wedded to power and scant democracy.
November 13, 2024
+1. I agree on all counts
November 13, 2024
agreed
Trade gone up DESPITE THE GOVERNMENTs actions, or lack of !
Private enterprise wins again, and usually finds a way to survive, but it should not be taken for granted that they can continue to do so.
November 13, 2024
Indeed, but a great Shame Boris and Sunak pathetically failed to even attempt to get a real Brexit and to take full advantage of it. Even sticking to the net zero lunacy. As is that moronic Robotic Starmer at COP 29. Making even more absurd CO2 pledges. Sunak and Miliband are both deluded morons. Or they do actually want to destroy the UK economy and render it unable to compete.
This too truly appalling.
Allison Pearson
My visit from police on Remembrance Sunday is living proof of our two-tier justice system
A knock on the door to be accused of a non-crime hate incident from a year-old tweet is not what people fought and died for in the war.
They would not even say which tweet it was.
November 13, 2024
LL :
Allison Pearson :
A non-crime hate incident, where the accused is not allowed to know the accuser, victim or reason, is a Marxist concept to stifle free speech which has emanated from the College of Policing, a quango set up in 2012 by the then Home Secretary, Mrs. May, who then as PM put the economy sabotaging Net Zero by 2050 into law without a proper debate, without a vote and without a costing
November 13, 2024
I (obviously) cannot say whether the assertions made by Mr. Redwood, based on Facts4EUâs charts and tables, are accurate – in the sense that Facts4EUâs web site suggests a not entirely impartial organisation.
But what about vice versa? Did the EUâs goods exports to us âcontinue to growâ after Brexit? Did Brexit, in effect, make little difference. Iâd like to see facts and figures from someone a little less invested in Brexit. Why? Because I am as committed a Brexiteer as the next man and, quite seriously, Brexit nearly caused a divorce here. I want to be able to show my wife facts and figures about our trade post Brexit but, if I referenced Facts4EUâs figures, she would laugh and say âtheyâre hardly impartial – and I couldnât really argue with that.
Reply The figures are taken from official published data
November 13, 2024
Which ones? How comes you seem unable to give your references?
November 13, 2024
I see you are wading in as usual hefner.
Got any facts that contradict todays post yourself ?
Err..no.
PS
It is “how come”..no s
November 13, 2024
Increased trade without governments since 2016 really trying to increase it! Imagine what would have happened under a proper Conservative gov!
Well now we have the choice over the next few years. They can either work with Trump or against him. Had the Tories been in Government, there would be a lot of mealy mouthed pandering to both the EU and Trump. Of course, we will get the same from Labour now, but there is a chance for the Tories to actually follow Reform for once to embrace a reduction in spending. lower taxes and so on. Labour can never do that. They have set their direction to higher taxes and spending.
November 13, 2024
Global CO2 emissions reached a new high last year.
Trump is going to expose the hoax of the mad war on net good CO2 tree food. Great!
Miliband asked if it is a hoax says âit is definitely happening look at Spain, one 40C day in the UK a couple of years back and at the USâ. That seems to be the best he can come up with? We have had worse floods and much hotter weather in the past mate, plus we do now have more urban heat islands effects as more concrete.
Grow up you very silly deluded PPE graduate. You plans are insane and will not indeed cannot realistically happen.
November 13, 2024
I second that. We had flooding because the EU prevented farmers and land owners from hedging and ditching on the supposed premise they were spreading contamination, I suspect the recent flooding in Spain to be caused by the same stupid rules! Every thing from the eu was detrimental to the rule of Britain
November 13, 2024
That and new buildings and roads with inadequate flooding provisions.
November 13, 2024
That is very encouraging for the UK and vindicates our decision to leave. I do believe the UK is in a better position on its own not least because we now see the EU and Germany in particular with big problems and potential trade wars with China and the US. The UK no being out of the EU can avoid these negative impacts. Being out makes us so much more adaptable and competitive.
November 13, 2024
Trade was only one of the imaginary downsides of Brexit spouted by Cameron and co. The Remainiacs have never admitted their exaggerated lies, so don’t expect them to to praise Brexit successes.
November 13, 2024
The Brexiters have never admitted their exaggerated lies either. Tell me, what is the effect on trade of the brilliant agreements signed by Liz Truss with Australia and New Zealand? Could it be among the reasons why the British farmers have now more difficulties than ever?
November 13, 2024
State what ‘the more difficulties are?’
For those of us who read or listen it is as a direct result of MS Reeves intention to damage to the point of extinction all the smaller farms that would be inherited within families, as has been the case for centuries.
Nothing to do whatsoever with trade deals halfway round the globe.
November 13, 2024
What about GM crops, hormone-filled beef and chlorinated chicken when a number of the smaller British farms want to keep their products as clean as possible, all this imported food going against what had been addressed in the Phys.org 14/11/2023 âEvidence-led GM crop regulation could help UK take lead in tackling food security, climate change risksâ?
November 14, 2024
But purchase is a CHOICE. Don’t you get that?
November 13, 2024
Agreements that moaning remainers like you hefner said would never happen
November 13, 2024
The second Trump presidency ought to be seen as an opportunity rather than as a threat. If only we had a government able to grasp all that might be possible rather than one with a Chancellor who says she intends to “fight” any Trump tariffs.
Brexit still needs to be sold as a concept, not least to its buyers. The information you provide today ought to be part of a huge effort to show people the UK has done itself a huge favour by unshackling from the Evil Empire.
November 13, 2024
Yes. Just to summarise, in 2019 just before Brexit came into force our total exports (goods + services) to the EU were ÂŁ299bn. In 2023 they were ÂŁ356bn. 356 is a bigger number than 299.
You would assume Starmer will want to stay aligned with the EU in opposition to Trump but maybe not – so far he has not committed to duplicate their proposed 45% tariffs on Chinese EV imports (which incidentally proves that the EU aren’t really interested in the climate “crisis” because otherwise they would welcome enhanced takeup of cheap EVs). And of course he has imposed VAT on school fees which is banned in the EU. So maybe he will be sensible on a USA FTA although his party is stuffed with chlorinated chicken alarmists.
November 13, 2024
Something that many seem to ignore is where is the ‘Gain’ in our trading relationships – in other words who do we ‘sell’ more to than we ‘buy’ from?
“The UK’s EU trade deficit has fallen from negative 1.1% of GDP in Quarter 1 2010 to negative 4.5% in Quarter 4 2023. In contrast, the UK’s non-EU trade surplus has risen from 1.3% of GDP in Quarter 1 2010 to 2.3% in Quarter 4 2023.” (Source ONS website)
I’ve always seen our relationship with the EU as a continual drain on our national wealth. If you keep buying more from someone than you sell to them, then you are effectively moving wealth overseas…
November 13, 2024
OK, to start here is a letter that I have sent to our local newspaper, with references:
“Recent political developments in the US have evoked widely different reactions here in the UK.
As one example, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch says that with Trump back as president we could get the lucrative special free trade deal that she had negotiated in 2020, while on the other hand the Federal Trust has released a video asking “Is Trump the Destroyer of Brexit?”.
Unfortunately Mrs Badenoch is exaggerating the potential value of her special trade deal, as according to the government’s own assessment: “A UK FTA with the US is estimated to increase the UKâs long run annual GDP by 0.07% in scenario 1 and 0.16% in scenario 2”.
While the Federal Trust is exaggerating the potential damage to our economy from increased tariffs on our exports to the US, only eight per cent of our output and made up of both goods and services, fantasising that we would be driven back into the embrace of the EU.
And that is assuming without any justification that we would be better off sharing in whatever deal the EU managed to negotiate with the US, if and when they actually let us do so, rather than negotiating our own deal, when there are good reasons to think the opposite.
My advice to this Labour government would be to stop obsessing about changes to our external trading relations and focus on the chronic problem of slow economic growth which started at the time of the global financial crisis under the previous Labour government.
(“Driving with handbrake on for past 16 years”, Viewpoint, July 26 2024)”
And here are two lines of reasoning that lead me to conclude that our economy would not be greatly damaged even if Trump imposed the kind of tariffs that have been mooted and we did not get a free trade deal:
1. Taking an average of 0.1% for the projected UK GDP gain if the present 3% tariffs were removed through the kind of deal that Kemi Badenoch negotiated, the UK GDP loss if tariffs were trebled would be 0.2%.
2. We export about 8% of our national output to the US, but only a third of that is goods, and if increased tariffs knocked a fifth off our goods exports that would be 0.5% of GDP, but if reciprocal tariffs cut imports from the US increased home production to replace imports would reduce the overall effect on GDP.
Basically it is a lot of fuss about nothing, just an excuse for Rejoiners to push out more propaganda.
November 13, 2024
Yes, it’s amazing how theories quickly evolve into facts with nothing to support them. I’m reminded of a couple of scientific theories that have been accepted as reality when nobody can verify them, except by postulating certain conditions.
1- the big bang theory;
2- dinosaurs died out when an asteroid hit the Earth 65million years ago.
Once the socialist crowd that make up the greater majority of remoaners get an idea about something, they make it a verifiable fact by repeating it ad-nauseam until it sticks in the centre of weak minds and it’s authenticity is then beyond doubt.
It’s another form of indoctrination to make their cause correct.
November 13, 2024
Be a bitty curious and you will find geological proofs that the Cretaceous-Paleogene extinction event wiped out not only the dinosaurs but a large fraction of other animals.
As for the Big Bang, what is your alternate explanation?
And finally who is repeating ad nauseam their weak âargumentsâ day in day out on this blog and similar ones. What about a bit of âGnothi seautonâ?
November 13, 2024
You are missing the whole point – Read again what I said, you might get it eventually.
November 13, 2024
I doubt it Bryan.
November 14, 2024
goelogical proofs are still theory…proof? nah!
November 13, 2024
âApparently not so. Most keep reporting a bad forecast as a fact. Maybe they havenât checked the dataâ
This can equally be applied to climate alarmism. It is not necessary to have a physics degree to check the data on precipitation, droughts, storms, sea level rise and deaths attributed to extreme weather events to see that the UN/WEF/BBC are telling us porkies. Or go straight to the UN IPCC Working Group 1 (âThe Scienceâ) Table 12 in Chapter 12 where no signal for climate change can be found other than some mild warming (0.14 degrees per decade) leading to the loss of some ice and snow.
It is also not necessary to have studied PPE to see that CAGW and it economy destroying âsolutionâ, Net Zero is driven by the Far Left who have no issue with CO2 emissions from China, India et al and ignore nuclear, the only low CO2 emitting source of power which is affordable and reliable.
Not that CO2 is a problem. It is not a pollutant. It is plant food. Both climate history and science shows that CO2, as trace gas, does not affect global temperature or climate. Its ability to absorb IR radiation as a greenhouse gas is counteracted at the surface by billions of collisions from non-IR gases, such as nitrogen and oxygen which make up most of our atmosphere. Even the IPCC only attribute a 1.2 degrees C warming to a doubling of CO2 (UN IPCC WG! P95 footnote).
November 13, 2024
I would love to see a world with NO trade “deals”.
November 13, 2024
UK self sufficiency first and foremost! Sell our over supply.
November 13, 2024
RG, Do you think that the Italo-US-French group Stellantis would welcome the âenhanced takeup of cheapâ Chinese âEVs?
As for the increased availability of chlorinated chicken, hormone beef and GM crops that a US/UK FTA would likely induce I am sure that most British farmers would be absolutely âdelightedâ.
November 13, 2024
However the public will love cheaper EVs and a wider choice of food.
Maybe European car makers and farmers will try and improve their offering to the public due to having to compete.
November 14, 2024
I think you will find British consumers have bought less imported food from EU since our exit.
There is a growing concern among EV owners that the promises of jam tomorrow owning one has not lived up to expectations, and the alarming devaluation as the dead-battery cliff approaches.
November 13, 2024
Nice piece. I hope you’ll make this point, to a wider audience, when you next guest on GBN.
November 13, 2024
âMost keep reporting a bad forecast as a fact.â
Remainism, as Climate Alarmism, is a religion or cult based upon belief rather than facts. The wolves know that telling a big enough lie often enough will cause the sheep to believe anything and ignore any inconvenient facts. Or fail even to check them out.
Once in the religion or cult the sheep cannot leave because it is not possible to reason someone out of something if they have not reasoned themselves into it in the first place. And because it is almost impossible for people to admit they have been conned.
November 13, 2024
Typical Remainer/Lefty propaganda that fails under inspection. When are they going to promote the country and cease and desist trying to prove a point that is already dead and buried? They really are the “Die-hards” .
November 13, 2024
Don’t know what to say when I read this stuff – am only glad I live in west of Ireland
November 14, 2024
true – better than rest of EU countries?