Remain wrongly forecast a hit to U.K. exports of goods and services when we left the EU. They said the hit would be up to a 15% decline, which would mean a 4% loss of GDP. They still use this in their commentaries on Brexit and it was baked into OBR forecasts. Whilst saying this could take 15 years to complete, they thought the bulk of the loss would happen quite soon after Brexit.
So what happened? U.K. goods trade continued to grow with the EU after we left, and grew faster with the rest of the world as it had been doing when we were a member. Services trade boomed in the years after we left. Time for apologies and red faces?
Apparently not so. Most keep reporting a bad forecast as a fact. Maybe they haven’t checked the data. One study earlier this year sought to dig Remainers out of their gloomy hole by arguing that whilst trade had gone up and not down it should have gone up more so we should still not a theoretical loss against these recently inflated expectations!
All this becomes relevant as President Trump threatens the rest of the world with tariffs designed to cut exports into the USA. The USA is the UK’s biggest trade partner by far, and we have a good growing trade with a U.K. surplus. It is good news we are out of the EU and can do our own trade deal with the US. The government should be proposing a trade deal to Mt Trump and should be using its Brexit freedoms to avoid the likely tariff war the EU seems to be planning. We should start by announcing we will not copy the EU carbon based tariffs they are bringing in against the US and others.
Facts4eu have published some excellent tables and graphs setting out the U.K. trade success post Brexit.
November 13, 2024
Good morning.
The biggest damage done to the UK economy was COVID, not BREXIT. But you do not hear much about that.
Hmm. Not too sure about either to be honest. We still follow all EU Regulations and, this government like many before it is only too keen to drag its heals on this issue. There seems to be a reluctance to ‘diverge’ away from the EU as much as possible. I wounder why ? 😉
November 13, 2024
Increased trade without governments since 2016 really trying to increase it! Imagine what would have happened under a proper Conservative gov!
Well now we have the choice over the next few years. They can either work with Trump or against him. Had the Tories been in Government, there would be a lot of mealy mouthed pandering to both the EU and Trump. Of course, we will get the same from Labour now, but there is a chance for the Tories to actually follow Reform for once to embrace a reduction in spending. lower taxes and so on. Labour can never do that. They have set their direction to higher taxes and spending.
November 13, 2024
Global CO2 emissions reached a new high last year.
Trump is going to expose the hoax of the mad war on net good CO2 tree food. Great!
Miliband asked if it is a hoax says “it is definitely happening look at Spain, one 40C day in the UK a couple of years back and at the US”. That seems to be the best he can come up with? We have had worse floods and much hotter weather in the past mate, plus we do now have more urban heat islands effects as more concrete.
Grow up you very silly deluded PPE graduate. You plans are insane and will not indeed cannot realistically happen.
November 13, 2024
That is very encouraging for the UK and vindicates our decision to leave. I do believe the UK is in a better position on its own not least because we now see the EU and Germany in particular with big problems and potential trade wars with China and the US. The UK no being out of the EU can avoid these negative impacts. Being out makes us so much more adaptable and competitive.
November 13, 2024
Trade was only one of the imaginary downsides of Brexit spouted by Cameron and co. The Remainiacs have never admitted their exaggerated lies, so don’t expect them to to praise Brexit successes.
November 13, 2024
The second Trump presidency ought to be seen as an opportunity rather than as a threat. If only we had a government able to grasp all that might be possible rather than one with a Chancellor who says she intends to “fight” any Trump tariffs.
Brexit still needs to be sold as a concept, not least to its buyers. The information you provide today ought to be part of a huge effort to show people the UK has done itself a huge favour by unshackling from the Evil Empire.