The Governor implied in his remarks at the Mansion House that trade and the economy had been damaged by Brexit. He failed to look up the figures which show our exports up by more than 50% since 2016, well ahead of price inflation over the period. He failed to mention the huge success of our services exports, catapulting us from fourth place in the world to second place in the table of service exporters. He failed to read the excellent pieces by Fact4EU that set out the successes by country or to consult the ONS detailed numbers.
Let me remind him from the ONS. 11 of the top thirty export destinations are EU and 19 are rest of the world. We export three times as much to the USA as we export to Germany, our largest EU trade partner. Our trade with the rest of the world has been growing faster than our trade with the EU now we are out, as it did when we were in the EU. The main reason is we excel at services and the EU does not buy enough of those. They sell better into English speaking countries with UK styles of law and business process. In 2023 our exports to the EU amounted to £356bn and to the rest of the world £505bn, 41% EU and 59% rest of the world.
More importantly our trade with the rest of the world delivered a £75 bn trade surplus in the year to August 2024, compared with a continuing massive deficit of £100bn with the EU. Brexit has not prevented the EU continuing to export large quantities of energy and goods to us, as they remain tariff free under the Free Trade Agreement we have with them. Services now account for 55% of our global total trade.
It would be good to export more goods and energy. The main reasons growth in goods has been slower is not Brexit but the UK’s industrial and net zero policies. Two of our top six goods exports are oil and refined oil products. The UK government is pursuing a rapid run down policy for our North Sea and onshore oil and gas prospects and refining so that acts as a headwind to growth in goods trade. A third leading area has been cars. Accelerated switching to electric vehicles by government policy before the UK has the ability to design and make enough good affordable EVs is again hitting export volumes. We do not produce enough electricity as policy is to close coal, older nuclear and some gas planets before there are sufficient replacements. Instead of exporting electricity we become a net importer when the wind does not blow and the sun does not shine.
The Governor when analysing reasons for slow growth since the 2008-9 crash of the economy should look at the erratic and error strewn Bank of England policies that allowed and created a big inflation to be followed by a credit crunch.
November 16, 2024
Well Bailey is still in place despite constant criticism. He was appointed under a Conservative government too.
Your radio 4 interview, along with Labour MP Stella Creasey, raised the point about services, but the BBC let her bang on about increased bureaucracy harming exports to Europe. Seemed to me she was allowed to do most of the talking.
Her statement that manufacturing was also important was allowed to hang there without suffficient emphasis being allowed for the self harm of high energy prices due to net zero.
The BBC only wanted to promote one view.
November 16, 2024
Bailey is no friend of Britain but takes his orders from the wef/UN
The fact that he was appointed by the lib dem Gideon tells it all.
Yesterday the head of engineering was quite adamant that Milibrains scheme to rewire Britain is a non starter due to lack of engineers and fabrication capacity.
Three is another 32 cables being laid to mainland Europe which should ensure we continue to pay the highest prices for electricity in the world.
In periods of low wind and solar Europe can charge us maximum. Remember last year, paying £2000 per mwh to maintain the frequency.
We’re rapidly heading for third world status under these clowns and the tories basically agree with them.
November 16, 2024
You are right Peter, Brexit is in the same box as climate change. It must be treated as fact that both are bad for us. As I noted yesterday net-zero impoverishes the masses for the benefit of a few. Being an EU vassel state had the same outcome.
Those in power cannot allow sensible debate on these topics else the quality of the Emperor’s new clothes may become apparent.
November 16, 2024
Why does he continue in employment. I know nothing about banking, but with your guiding articles on my desk I woumd be willing to give it your best for half the price.
November 16, 2024
Meanwhile, ‘ Trump aide tells UK: Choose US free market over ‘socialist’ EU’. (The Times)
Bailey was softening us up for rejoining EU eventually. The American says that will not help British exports to the USA. ‘Chlorinated chicken’ is mentioned again as a huge stumbling block.
A good negotiator would find a deal that suited both sides but excluded an item like chlorinated chicken that our food standards prohibit.
We will move closer to Europe with Labours big majority. They will just need to find more excuses to do this.
November 16, 2024
Absolutely – and in addition to everything covered in your primer it is definitely not in his remit to even offer his opinion. Truly outrageous but adds weight to the theory that he is facilitating this shower of an administration.
November 16, 2024
Good morning.
What I think the Govenor of the BoE is trying to say, Sir John is : “Not me guv !”
November 16, 2024
What a pity our kind host is not invited onto TV to give facts like these. Instead the legacy media beat the Remain drum and as a result if you polled Brits I think a large majority would say Brexit had damaged trade.
We need honesty when it comes to debating public policy. Many people aren’t ideologues, they just want a better life for themselves and are not too bothered about the polity that delivers it. If important facts are hidden from them or misrepresented, it becomes impossible for them to assess where their best interests truly lie. So Remainers – idealogues – blame Brexit for ills that have nothing to do with it in order to swing public opinion. That’s no way to win an argument in private or in public life.
November 16, 2024
Apart from believing what he asserts, he is also pandering to the Starmer view. Once the Trump administration is in place the UK faces a choice on which way it will turn – enterprise driven vs state driven. On the evidence the choice will be the failed state driven, high tax model. It is already clear that the destructive potential of Labour taxes will decimate farming, private education, the charity sector as well as businesses. Growth will take a huge knock. Export earnings an even bigger knock from the damage to the education sector as schools close, leisure and hospitality venues close and businesses exit higher risk, lower margin markets. The government remains in denial about the destructive impact of the Reeves budget.