2025 will be a year of decision for the United Kingdom. Will we cling to an old and unavailable dream of a free trading more prosperous faster growing Europe, or will we have the courage and the self confidence to take a global view, adopting a path of free trade and more free enterprise? The truth is the so called Single market was always more customs Union than free trade area It was always more a hook to justify too much regulation and legislation rather than a simple free trade framework. The EU opted for higher taxes, more government and many more rules. The USA opted for lower taxes and fewer restrictions on enterprise. As a result the US has grown so much faster than the EU all century so far, and has reached twice the level of output  and income per head as the EU average.
The new UK government has got off to bad start, with an austerity budget for the private sector and an inflationary one for the public sector. It has pledged to woo the EU to unspecified improvements in our Free Trade Treaty with them, only to be met with the predictable demands for more surrenders of powers, fish and money. It has failed to draft a Free Trade Agreement to put to President Trump who wanted Mrs May to agree one soon after the Brexit vote only to be told the EU would not approve before we left!
I want the government to succeed with its chosen aims of giving us the fastest growth in the G7 and with public service reform so we achieve productivity growth after 27 years of no progress. With productivity growth can come higher real wages and more and better service. With the US growing more than twice as fast as the EU it is the US we need to catch up with . Their growth is led by three strengths. They have lower business and individual taxes. They have been growing their oil and gas output to give them an abundance of cheap energy. They have dominated the digital world with their brilliant technology giants. Government in the UK can do much to achieve the first two. It should reverse its bans on UK oil and gas, which drive us to import and gives the world more CO 2 as a result. They need to cut taxes on earning, employing and investing.
2025 could be a great year for the UK if we worked alongside the USA as it embarks on its policy of 3% growth. It will be another disappointing year if government here remains bogged down in futile negotiations with the EU as they struggle to get to 1% growth. The UK seems to be looking for more ways to run up big bills by giving more money to foreign governments and institutions. Today Chagos and the World Health organisation, tomorrow the EU are supplicants . If we do more of this it will confine us to the slow lane and the government to continuing unpopularity.
I wish you all a very happy  and successful 2025. May your personal journeys bring you to places you wish to be, whatever the government serves up by way of a future.
December 30, 2024
Good morning.
It never ceases to amaze me how much our government can find for foreigners, both here in the UK and abroad, but none for its own. It equally amazes that people keep on voting for those political parties who do this.
The one area our kind host has failed to mention when discussing trade and growth is South East Asia. Here is part of the world that continues to grow and will this century become the dominant economic and political epicentre of the world replacing much of the West and all of Europe, with the UK a small out-colony of the globalists and a satellite state of the EU. A grim outlook but one I believe the UK can no longer escape.
For the UK to escape the aforementioned fate it requires people with vision and belief in this country. One only has to look to the USA to see this. People willing to lead their country out of the darkness and into the light. Freeing those who would make the word a better place and reducing the shackles of the State. Theirs is a better future with more energy, both literally and metaphorically, and drive.
I mentioned here before that I was once told that there were leaders and there were followers. We here in the UK have sheep led by a donkey who in turn is led ‘by others’. ‘Others’ whose only interest is to asset strip what is left. Sheep who believe more in feelings than facts. A government of dubious claims, poor decisions, and bad to no visions of the future.
We are lost.
December 30, 2024
I fear you’re optimism is lost on this bunch of chances. We are doomed to the sidings of life by a government who wants to surrender power to the unelected, unaccountable EU.
Everyone except 2TK and his gang can see it’s a corrupt failing entity but will carry on regardless as to how damaging it is to the UK.
They like the tories have no intention of stopping the channel invasion or the deindustrialising of the country.
The religion of net zero has captured the government and will be more damaging (words deleted ed)
I fear for my country in 2025.
Happy New Year John
December 30, 2024
Sadly, I think you are right. The UK is run by clueless politicians who offer no hope for the future.
December 30, 2024
@Mark B – +1
Parliament, and to me it is the majority of Parliament has shown its either in denial that the rest of the World exists or it is so insular that it prefers being dictated to by unelected unaccountable bureaucrats elsewhere. Hence the main reason the UK is not on a WTA agreement, the very thing the majority of the UK voted for. Or is it those in Parliament see their next personal move as being called up to the Politburo in a ‘made for life scenario’. Which ever way you look at it they are in refusal of their obligations to the electorate and the country
It also suggests why the unelected unaccountable WEF is able to dictate direction to the UK and its politburo and the people (the electorate) of the UK are denied similar. The minions lend parliament their power, pay the wages and the bills and then parliament fights them.
Working with those that empower and pay the wages is infinitely less of a chore, more productive, more rewarding, than the constant never ending war government and parliament has declared on us all.
December 30, 2024
BRICS,baby,BRICS!
Thailand,Malaysia,Indonesia,amongst others,have just confirmed they are joining as BRICS Partners in the new year.And Iran has just gained observer status at the Eurasian Economic Union following full ratification of its FTA with the EEU.Furthermore,Russia and Iran will sign a new Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement on 17/1/25-interesting timing!There’s a good article from the Gulf Research Centre,4/11/24,”Partners in Defiance:Russia and Iran move closer to alliance”which covers the historical trade connectivity between Russia,Iran and India before the age of European colonialism.
Remember all that talk about China collapsing….FT,26/12/24:”World Bank lifts China growth forecast but calls for reforms.”Calls for reforms?Why?so that it become more like the ex-growth west!
And WSJ:”(US) Commerce Secretary Gina Raimundo:Trying to hold back China(in the chips race) is a fools errand”.
December 30, 2024
A country cannot survive when its best are emigrating and lawless men are coming here with several wives and several large families to fleece our welfare system.
December 30, 2024
âMay your personal journeys bring you to places you wish to be, whatever the government serves up by way of a future.â
Indeed perhaps the best advice is for people who are wealthy or hard working is to leave for lower tax regimes, or become a tax planner to avoid the absurdly high and absurdly complex tax system, or a Lawyer as Starmer endlessly creates largely parasitic jobs for lawyers. Or live of benefit and barter or black market or become a train driver!
Invest say ÂŁ1m in the UK for 50 years at a 10% return less all taxes with 3% inflation and IHT will give you about 2M in real terms the government takes about 86% of the capital and the return off you.
Do the same somewhere with no tax leaves you ÂŁ27m in real terms to pass on.
December 30, 2024
Rachel Reeves thinks she delivered a budged for growth it was the complete reverse – so is she lying or an idiot?
Bridget Phillipson thinks no VAT on a school fees is a “tax break” (and wants to kill free speech) – idiot or liar?
Lammy thinks Trump is/was âa neo-Nazi-sympathising sociopathâ – idiot?
Ed Miliband thinks net zero is a great plan for jobs and the economy – idiot or liar?
Starmer thinks he will smash the gangs to stop the boat arrivals – idiot of liar?
Any other explanations I can’t see any?
December 30, 2024
Liars and zealots.
December 30, 2024
Someone working to earn say ÂŁ100k PA which gives about enough net to pay average school fees for two one VAT is on them will find about 75% of these earnings will end up with government in income tax, VAT, NI and then income tax and NI for the teachers. Leaving only about 25k actually used for education of their children! Sure a great subsidy Bridget! Compared to the children who pay nothing (and are subsidised) by those not using state schools!
December 30, 2024
@Lifelogic – agreeing with you. The economy is the money circulating around those providing goods and services and it is this moving around that is feeds growth. Remove money from the economy, taxes, levies(still tax), extra charges(still tax) meaningless bureaucracy (still a tax) as everyone with fingers or a calculator will tell you that’s less money in the economy, leading to higher inflation, higher costs a receding economy
December 30, 2024
Relax – Rachel from Accounts has it all sorted!
Labour are useless. But we should be using this time to build up the Tory Party by figuring out how to attract Tories with talent and leadership skills into the Party. How do we do that? (Million dollar question that we keep having to ask and to try and work out – pronto).
December 30, 2024
You need conservatives to build up conservatism and a party. So a fools errand in the current Tory Party.
December 30, 2024
So polls suggest that an election tomorrow would not give Labour any majority. Of course had the foolish (covid vaccine enthusiast and net zero fan) Sunak not abandoned the bridge six month early then we could be having the election this Thursday or next. Preferably under a new leader and not Sunak.
December 30, 2024
@Lifelogic – the problem and impediment there is the Parliamentary Group that calls themselves Conservatives they still wouldn’t find enough support from the country that is majority Conservative. Its difficult to identify this groups position other than they are not conservative. Even now with the continuity team in place owning through collective responsibility of the last governments mistakes, there is no hope and no home for anyone wanting a conservative government their.
December 30, 2024
Sorry, LL, an extra four months would have made no difference. By May of this year the Conservatives had brought the country down to a point where a Labour government was absolutely inevitable. Even if the Rwanda flights could have taken off and the boats had stopped coming, all it would have done would have saved a few seats at the margins : perhaps JR-M’s, for example, a great loss to the House.
Those of us who have experienced previous Labour governments knew what would happen, yet even I have been surprised at just how fast things have unravelled. But then we only have to look at Starmer’s front bench, probably the worst bunch of failures in living memory. Who else would have appointed Theeves, Lammy, Mrs Balls, and Ginge to their current posts, yet Starmer had nobody on the benches behind him who have even run a Whelk stall ? If he had, they would be doing a better job !
I took one look at the Conservative survivors after the election and immediately joined Reform. For the party to have chosen Badenough as their new leader has been just as bad. Her idiotic attack on Nigel Farage was only going to end in one way. Has she apologised yet ? She is going to have too, and even then, she might not hold onto her new job.
One thing is certain, The Conservatives are going to have to work with Nigel Farage if there is to be any chance of deposing Labour.
December 30, 2024
PS : I forgot the mention Milband, the man who will singlehandedly do more damage to the UK than any other minister, even more damage than Theeves.
December 30, 2024
The Tories handed the election to Labour on a silver platter (I don’t blame Labour but the Tories even though I think Labour are useless).
December 30, 2024
You outline the picture very accurately, but overlook the signs that this rag tag government is driven by envy and control and has no intention of pursuing growth. They prefer dependency.
I once pointed out that we are closer to Washington than is Hawaii. In such a position we would be better as another State of the USA than anything our current government is heading towards.
If we are to remain an independent sovereign state the necessary return path contains much more than the return of a Reform government in 2029. Of necessity there must be a plan to remove the revolutionary left from all our institutions. They exist in every organ of the UK body, like malaria, ready to errupt and thwart democracy. They must be eliminated, because a democratic government intent on the goals you suggest, will find themselves in a gorilla war against their constant insurrection. Elimination means that on day one, residual EU law is removed, quangos get burnt, the CS reverts to a contract of employment, trade unions get their teeth pulled, and our institutions are returned to their design purpose. Education is to educate, not to poison for political ends. We cannot afford the luxury of the broad political church of the past half century that has led us to where we are today. If it is Reform who are to do it, they must arrive on day one with law ready drafted. If I am still around they will get my vote.
December 30, 2024
agricola,
100% Correct. UK as 52nd State (after Canada!!) is preferable to a Starmerised EU pseudo membership, provided Trump or his like-minded successors are in control in the USA, but frightening if a Biden / Harris/ Obama / Clinton clique are in control there. Reform must be the answer for the UK. Sir John’s message today is absolutely on point.
December 30, 2024
Good to see you posting again! I always enjoyed your comments from down under.
December 30, 2024
Thank you, Michael.
Happy New Year to you, Sir John and all the regular posters.
December 30, 2024
are you taking the Michael?
December 30, 2024
There is a HUGE amount wrong with the USA. Would you actually want to live there.
Despite all our problems here, I still LOVE the UK x 100 times over to the USA.
There is so much craziness in the USA would do your but in after a while.
I still love it here in the UK. Our grey weather. Fish and chips. Relaxed, easy-going humour (scratch beneath the surface, and you can have a laugh with lots of people in London where I live. But not in the USA).
December 30, 2024
The U.K. is capable of being an independent state. We have managed that for longer than any other state in the world.
Why do you doubt?
December 30, 2024
Lyn,
With the ‘right’ people in charge, I have no doubts. My real concern is whether the ‘right’ people will ever be allowed to get there.
December 30, 2024
@Agricola. I think we can learn from Milei in Argentina and Trump 2.0 in the US. Milei has made remarkable progress in what is an anti-leftist, anti-globalist programme, but it does take time. DOGE has yet to start work and it will be fascinating to see the fight between it and the bureaucracies which are ittarget.
December 30, 2024
@agricola, @Pominoz, @Wanderer.
It would appear those that understand freedom and responsibility â ‘Get It’. However, beyond just this terrorist in government you have a parliament where it would appear there is only about 640ish MPs out of the 650 in post that want to work with the people of this country, serve the electorate and move forward.
Narrow almost religious ideology has gripped parliament, fighting the people is the preference, working with them(the people) is heresy
December 30, 2024
Just to confirm my conclusions, Labour announce today that they intend introducing a more inclusive curriculum for the education, (Indoctrination), of our children. This is 1984 writ large. How much more proof do we need. Lets ensure that this curriculum is picked apart for fact , over emphasis, and bias. It is more likely to emphasise division than create racial harmony. Children should be encouraged to question all they are taught and to research the subject before forming opinions and coming to conclusions. Black and white are rarely the result.
December 30, 2024
Watch for Starmer to cut defence expenditure in favour of joining the ‘EU army’ plan.
Starmer has created his own version of Milibrain’s NESO, to reason why and how we can rejoin the collapsing empire (has nobody told him?), that 100 plus Europe Hub.
Watch for Reeves to suddenly find that her tax plans so far don’t save any money, but actually costs money, and therefore she has ‘no choice but to raise general taxes’. So sorry.
Our solution, to removing Starmer is presenting itself; support for our farmers. If enough lay folk turn out when they next drive to London, we might repeat history.
December 30, 2024
Don’t underestimate this character, who will use every lane and avenue of the law to stop disruption to his plans. But at some stage in the not too distant future, the figures will show the true state of what is clearly going to happen.
December 30, 2024
The Markets are already deciding Joe.
10 Year Gilts are at 4.627% today and 30 Year Gilts at 5.25% (the highest in over 20 years!) and this is a ‘quiet’ period. Given how a large percentage (about 25%) of Government debt is index linked, this is very bad news for the Treasury. Starmer is hoping for ‘Growth’ but it’s very much harder to increase revenue than to cut costs. Labout is clearly increasing spend and has no plans to cut costs in the Public Sector, whilst battering the Private Sector with multiple extra costs (thus perversly reducing their revenue take). A nasty negative spiral…
JP Morgan has raised a red flag on the Gilt market over Christmas and once the Markets wake up next week, I think others will follow their lead. This will be very bad news for this government (and indeed all of us) but I really don’t see them changing course any time soon. Get your hard hats on!
December 30, 2024
100% Agree. Starmer and Co. simply don’t understand that Fiat money is all about confidence; when foreigners lose confidence in ÂŁ they’ll stop buying our stuff that can only be settled in ÂŁ. How long before Starmer starts the ‘money making’ machine?
December 30, 2024
Great comment
But we all know Labour are useless. Question now is very simple: how do we attract higher quality Tories into the Tory Party – so as to get back into power as quick as poss (and with an affective agenda)
Any ideas anyone?
December 30, 2024
Thank you and best wishes to you.
December 30, 2024
You say 2025 could be a good year for the UK, but we know it won’t, not with this Labour government. My hope is the wheels fall off the bus before they can do serious damage. I’m anticipating a slump in the economy, with businesses postponing investment and recruitment and others shutting up shop either because they fail or they decide it’s not worth continuing. With lower tax receipts and higher unemployment benefit being paid out, the government finances will look bad. They will plug the gap with more borrowing rather than reversing the bad decisions they have made and the money markets will respond.
The first casualty will be Rachel from Complaints, who will be made the scapegoat. Her replacement will fare no better and the PMs position will become shaky.
They are currently blaming the last Conservative government for the economic woes, so when that excuse gets tired no doubt they will go back to blaming Brexit. Anything but their mad socialist agenda.
December 30, 2024
Happy New year to you and your family, Sir John, and a Happy New Year to all the readers and untiring comment posters.
My wish for 2025 is only to stay healthy so that I don’t have to have any contact with the NHS or, worse, A & E. Without at least reasonable health all else becomes meaningless.
As for politics … well, I’m a ‘Sista Toldja’. There are many of us and as far as I’m concerned, I’ve decided to accept that one can’t help those determined to go to hell in a handcart.
Instead, I’m going to spend time enjoying all the small beauties my little garden offers every day, year in year out.
December 30, 2024
All those points are valid but in addition there is now emerging clear initial evidence that the planet is starting to cool with lower temperatures everywhere and particularly sea temperature.We need to maintain the highest levels of CO2 to minimise the cooling which means an end to NetZero in all its manifestations.
Many thanks for your kind good wishes for 2025.
December 30, 2024
Reference?…
December 30, 2024
WE made the decision in 2016.
WE voted to LEAVE the EU and become an independent, Sovereign, self-governing nation (again) and to trade globally in the interests of our own people.
The Establishment REFUSED to implement the result of the EU Referendum.
The Not-a-Conservative-Government did everything it possibly could to prevent LEAVE from being implemented and in the end, very reluctantly agreed a “deal” which effectively made us an Associate Member, semi-detached but closely enough aligned so that we could be dragged back towards the EU in the future.
That is what Sunak did with his Windsor Treachery and is what Two-Tier will do with his “EU Reset.”
So there is no “WE” about the current decision Sir John identifies (forge ahead with the USA v cling to the sclerotic, failing EU). WE voted to LEAVE.
I predict that the Establishment, currently fronted by Two-Tier, will ignore what WE voted for – just as Cameron, May, Johnson and Sunak did.
As with everything else, the problem starts and ends with the Westminster Uni-Party.
December 30, 2024
The origin of all problems is Westminster. The Central offices, or smoky back rooms all manipulate the MP selection and voting to ensure no meaningful change to the status quo can happen. Until Reform, encouraged by the US, wins the wishes of the electorate and disables the death-wish politics being endured by successive Parties there can be no hope for prosperity and living standards being raised.
December 30, 2024
I agree that the only solution to the decline of the UK is to vote out all the main political parties who have allegiance to the Globalists, not British citizens. What I don’t understand is why voters believe the lies they have been told by these politicians for the last few decades. “Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me”.
December 30, 2024
Yes Donna, trade was not asked about on the EU Referendum ballot paper.
We chose LEAVE, for Freedom.
As big boys and girls we can make our own choices in life. What Westminster tries is a matter for them, and often wrong.
December 30, 2024
@Donna, @Mickey Taking, @Christine, @Bloke
“Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?â
As we all know, we voted leave. A treacherous Conservative Government and Parliament reneged on the request.
They retained EU control over our laws and future. Parliament fights its people, it fights democracy and then assumes they are democratically elected.
December 30, 2024
Well said Donna – Parliament continues to fail us.
December 30, 2024
‘and to trade globally in the interests of our own people’
– this is a fairly garbage reason for leaving the EU. A strong economy trades with whoever it wants – whether in the EU or not (although it’s much easer, if you’re a Joe-Bloggs business person to trade with your closest neighbours, geographically. That’s just common business sense.
So the emphasis here is how to we make our economy stronger in general – not on trade agreements.
Brexit can work and work well but we can’t use bogus arguments to justify it.
December 31, 2024
The reason we voted to leave was to regain our independence and Sovereignty. I agree that trade was not the reason but the fact is that outside the EU we could trade in our own interests – whether via trade agreements or not. In the EU we couldn’t and the “Deal/Windsor Treachery” means we still can’t.
December 30, 2024
“It has failed to draft a Free Trade Agreement to put to President Trump who wanted Mrs May to agree one soon after the Brexit vote only to be told the EU would not approve before we left!”
That, in a nutshell, is the root problem. Hapless Tory administration followed by worse Labour one. The country needs a break from tweedle dum and tweedle dee to make the type of progress you outline.
December 30, 2024
Trump + Trade Agreement all kind of pie in the sky stuff.
Leaving the EU was about getting our sovereignty back (that’s the main reason and a great one).
If we want to trade more with whoever we want to in the world, then it’s simply a case of producing higher quality brands whether in tech, finance and consumer – but in particular tech.
They still want to buy German cars in Sudan, Vietnam or Australia. Distance or trade agreements here mean diddly squat compared to the strength of the brand.
So think BRANDS over trade agreements (that is if you want a really strong economy – trade agreements are of some value but don’t over-egg their importance either).
December 30, 2024
My new year message to Two-tier, free gear, pensioner robbing Starmer.
Resign you total incompetent.
December 30, 2024
He gets a high mark for executing his masters wishes.
December 30, 2024
I totally agree with Sir John and if ever there was any confusion about the US’ prosperity being due to lower taxes, lower regulations and cheap energy then just look at us when we adopted that combination in the 1980’s and 1990’s. Our economy was immediately revitalised and so was our long-term socio-economic outlook too. All we had to do was sustain Thatcherite principles but in 1997 we were conned into Socialism by the appeal of Tony Blair, the Socialist rot set in and look at us ever since and unto this day.
The US has never really been burdened by Socialism but we have and it explains their achievements and our setbacks (except for the 80s and 90s). The British people want opportunity and happiness far more than I think recent governments have properly understood and they are far more Conservative and they are Socialist.
Wishing Sir John and everyone else a successful and pleasant 2025.
December 30, 2024
Apologies, I misquoted Sir John. The third key factor which has propelled the US’ economic growth has indeed been their technological brilliance.
December 30, 2024
Yesterday, towards the end of the posting day, ChrisS got my attention by writing:
“The damage being done by Starmer, Reeves and Miliband, is in a completely different league to that caused by Brown when he was both Chancellor and then PM. It will certainly take a lot longer to repair than the five years it took Osbourne in 2010 .”
because the day before I had reiterated that the UK economy has never fully recovered from the global financial crisis in 2008, and “if it had done we would now have per capita GDP maybe 30% higher than it is … “, and I don’t accept that Osborne managed to repair the damage any more than Brown can be said to have caused it.
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2024/12/28/labours-worst-economic-errors/#comment-1491280
However what Brown did was leave us dangerously over-exposed to that or any other financial crisis, so that the Labour government ended up having to borrow a quarter of all the money it was spending, which it could only do by getting the Bank of England to rig the market in gilts, so-called “quantitative easing”.
Thinking around that I recalled the early days when Brown was condemning the previous Tory government under Major for their financial mismanagement and promising “prudence”, which cautious policy was at some point abandoned in favour of increased spending that turned out to be unaffordable extravagance.
So I googled for “Gordon Brown” coupled with “prudence”, and I would highlight two references that came up:
First, from the Guardian in March 1998:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/1998/mar/18/economy.welfare
“Brown’s grand coalition: Prudence with a purpose is Budget keynote”
Second, from 2011:
https://journals.openedition.org/osb/1136
“From Prudence to Profligacy : How Gordon Brown Undermined Britain’s Public Finances”
By Nicholas Sowels
“Having begun by pursuing an extremely conservative fiscal policy during the late 1990s, Gordon Brown, as Chancellor of the Exchequer and then Prime Minister, presided over a massive expansion in public spending to improve public services … The result was a run up of public deficits prior to the current financial and economic crisis …This in turn prepared the way for a substantial deterioration in public finances when the current crisis broke, a deterioration which may take years, if not decades to set right.”
Then the Tories were silly enough to let Labour shift the blame for the ensuing “austerity” on to them.
December 30, 2024
It never ceases to astound that any mention of the words “renewable electricity” or “net zero” or “electric vehicle” in a post results, right on cue, in dozens of replies spouting denials culled from the right-wing press. Along with the usual epithets of “eco-nutter” “eco-zealot” and lately “Miliband lover” – regardless of any other points that may have been made.
The fossil fuel lobby, with it’s never ending anti-EV, anti-net zero, anti-renewables propaganda loves fellow-travellers – such as the posters here who are doing it’s job for them
No amount of reasoning, accurate information or myth-busting will change these people’s mind. As I have mentioned before, it’s pointless trying to do so and I have given up.
There are plenty of other topics to discuss. Like the completely unnecessary and cruel badger cull, for example. Or the failure of British women to win a Nobel Prize since Dorothy Hodgkin (still the only British female Nobel Laureate) in 1964. Or the huge reduction in UK butterfly and moth numbers in 2024. Or the mismanagement of Marcus Rashford at Manchester United FC.
Reply Sounds like you are on the wrong site. I dont comment on football, but on poverty, growth, living standards, sovereignty, war and peace etc.
December 30, 2024
To those who tell me “The Science is settled” I remind them that science is never settled. For example, for the last 5000 years folk have said that “All Swans are white” Hence on this matter “the science was settled” and anybody questioning this Axiom was assumed to be deluded. Then somebody found Black Swans…
In other words, all the reasoning based on this White Swan Axiom turned out to be erroneous.
So let us have a little humility from the Anthropic (ie man-made) Climate Change lobby that they might just be wrong, given the large number of Axioms their belief is based upon.
December 30, 2024
Let’s stick to man-made it obviously means mankind made no need for the contrived “Anthropic”.
CO2 is just one of millions of factors that affect the climate, it is not even the main green house gas. Anyone who think that fitting a few heat pumps in the UK is the best way to prevent forest fires in Greece or Floods in Spain is clearly round the bend!
December 30, 2024
If Intermittent Energy is so cheap/plentiful/reliable, perhaps you could explain why the Feed-In Tariff Scheme Costs Taxpayers ÂŁ1.86 Billion As Solar Power Declines and Payments Soar
https://dailysceptic.org/2024/12/29/feed-in-tariff-scheme-costs-taxpayers-1-86-billion-as-solar-power-declines-and-payments-soar/
Etc ed.
December 30, 2024
+1
December 30, 2024
reply to reply….all that glitters is not usually Gold.
December 30, 2024
All the glisters
December 30, 2024
since glisters is an ancient abstract word (used by Shakespeare) I chose to use glitters that most people will understand.
I don’t feel corrected.
December 30, 2024
Mr Cold, can you assure us that your living arrangement do not include connection to the electric or gas grids? If you talk the talk I for one would be pleased to know that you walk a the walk as well.
You see, the electric grid is powered by fossil fuels – and if, God Forbid you have a wood burner – that also consumes fossil fuel – Drax consumes fossil fuel.
Let us know what it is like and how happy you are personally eschewing fossil fuel.
And good luck to Mrs Cold and her âhot-houseâ for orchids. Perhaps she can grow eidleweiss instead?
December 30, 2024
What is fossil fuel? The European Commission say it is:-
“Fossil fuel is a generic term for non-renewable energy sources such as coal, coal products, natural gas, derived gas, crude oil, petroleum products and non-renewable wastes.”
All fossil fuels are indeed sort of renewable so long as the sun keep the fusion reactor going, but it takesrather a long time to do so. Wood bio fuel is just young coal!
December 30, 2024
The EU Commission has no locus to redefine the meaning of words.
December 30, 2024
SG: âNo amount of reasoning, accurate information or myth-busting will change these peopleâs mind. As I have mentioned before, itâs pointless trying to do so and I have given up.â
With great respect I think the reason you have âgiven upâ promoting renewable energy is because you have finally realised that it is expensive, unreliable and chaotically intermittent and since electricity cannot be stored at grid-scale it cannot survive without hydrocarbon fuel generation backup. Even NESO has told the SoS for DESNZ that 35 GW of gas powered generation is needed to be retained for his clean power by 2030 project for when the wind doesnât blow and the sun doesnât shine. If you believe that burning hydrocarbon fuels gives us unreliable, extreme weather nothing could be more daft than relying on weather dependent renewables for our electricity!
December 31, 2024
Irony detection failure.
December 30, 2024
To an extent, free trading is within every nationâs grasp. Their citizens can decide to buy whatever they prefer from what is available if the contract and price are acceptable. The supplier loses if the buyer refuses.
Citizens of other countries offering to sell their products or services are similarly free, and if what they offer is desirable enough, those who need it will beat a path to their door.
The UK needs creative businesses capable of developing and producing highest quality output efficiently at home. Then the world will want it, even changing their own laws to make it more accessible. An elixir of everlasting life at ÂŁ100 would be an extreme example.
Even so, thousands of boat people risk their lives just to land here, and all we do is offer them free transport from the Channel, creaking health services and a hotel on a Monopoly board.
December 30, 2024
Starmer “Asking regulators how to create growth betrays a poor grounding in economics” DT article reveals both he and Reeves are lightweight posers.
Try asking SJR or just read his recent letter to Rachel….
Unbelievable.
December 30, 2024
@Ukret123 +1
An unbelievable request, asking people who are not elected, not accountable, not experienced and are in position of taking taxpayers money just from being ‘friends-of-friends’
December 30, 2024
Two-Tier has asked the question of the Regulators because he expects them to give the required response:
“Growth will be regenerated if you align more closely with the EU.”
All part of the strategy to justify his treachery.
December 30, 2024
But they canât make it happen. That is why they all look so sick. For them, the NHS awaits âŠ
December 30, 2024
Sir John
I love the optimism. But what hope is there anything other than ideology will prevail.
The Education Secretary on arriving in post sort to ban âfree speechâ. This has since also had the leader of the opposition wanting the same as she believes she is being criticised and challenged in the media, and that in her mind is not allowed. Both sides of the same WEF coin wanting, not the best, not working with the people but ruling in their own personal image free of challenge and difference. How did parliament sink so low?
The same Education Secretary now(today’s MsM) wants to force discrimination as a priority in education, rather than as the job requires striving for higher and always better standards, putting her own personal view of her own personal ideology first. As always when someone talks diversity, inclusion and equalities they then talk quotas, whichever way you try to dress it up it is pure discrimination. Pure 1984 mind control.
We need a country that focuses on the best of the best not ideology and enforced discrimination in their own personal image.
December 30, 2024
Our Uniparty will continue to implement Net Zero destroying our industry, economy, living standards, freedoms and national security.
There is no climate emergency and (anthropogenic) CO2 does not control the temperature. There is no CO2 explanation for how the planet warmed out of the last ice age which ended just 11,000 years ago. There is no CO2 explanation for the discovery of 7000 and 3000 year old tree stumps in BC/Canada and Iceland as glaciers retreat. There is no CO2 explanation for the Roman warm period when vines grew up by Hadrianâs Wall. There is no CO2 explanation for how the Icelandic Norsemen could colonise Greenland in the Middle Ages prior to the Little Ice Age which required temperatures 5 degrees C higher than today. There is no CO2 explanation for the Little Ice Age or its exit ending the repeated frost fairs on the Thames between 1608 and 1814 (and not ending in 1914 or 2014). Shula & Ott on Tom Nelson Podcast (YT) explain why.
December 30, 2024
The truth is the US Presidency changes every four years and US policies and economy seems to be in state of flux which is OK for the US because it’s living it in its own time – but for others trying to align with that we’d never catch up – ‘apples and oranges and geographically too far apart’ – we’d always be behind the curve. Then there are other considerations like the future of NATO and European defence also social security and health – As regards ‘free trade’ there is no such thing as somebody always pays and going by recent utterances it won’t be the US. Therefore I don’t think the US is such a great example to follow – it was a really good place back in the 60’s and 70’s but not anymore –
December 30, 2024
Happy new year SirJ and thank you for this diary …..the only light & truth in a dark political world
December 30, 2024
Starmer doesnât have an aim for the UK to be the fastest growing in the G7. Thatâs just something he said. Bit like the Conservatives saying theyâd reduce immigration to the tens of thousands.
December 30, 2024
At this time of year we look optimistically towards the future, but never has that future looked so dismal. Despite that I will add my good wishes to our gracious host and to all like minded contributors to this diary.
My postulate for the new year:
“MAY THE NEW YEAR BRING US BETTER NEWS ON MANY FRONTS.
MAY THE GOOD LABOUR MPs REVOLT AND KICK OUT THEIR LEADER.
MAY THE EU EMBARRASS THE NEW PM SUCH THAT HE RERFUSES TO MAKE ANY NEW DEALS WITH THEM AND SACKS THE 100 STRONG GROUP THAT WAS DUE TO KEEP US CLOSE TO THE EU.
MAY REALISM RETURN TO PARLIAMENT, WHERE TAXES ARE REDUCED AND A REAL BUDGET INTRODUCED.
MAY TRUMP LIVE UP TO HIS POTENTIAL, REINVIGORATE THE USA AND SHOW US HOW TO DO IT.
MAY WE SEE A VISIT FROM A SPACE ALIEN WHO TELLS US THAT GLOBAL WARMING IS A MYTH, AND SUDDENLY NETZERO GOES AWAY.
MAY 2025 MAKE US ALL PROSPEROUS, HONEST, SANE AND WORTHY OF A BRIGHTER FUTURE WITHOUT ANY GLOBALISTS PULLING STRINGS!”
December 30, 2024
Sincere apologies if I’ve inadvertently multi-posted: after pressing post, the comments disappeared rather than the usual ‘waiting in moderation’. So I tried again, several times.
The comments related a prominent German politician’s vision for altering the EU to free trade area. I did use direct quotes, using speech marks. Does this trigger a rejection of a comment? I fear I have transgressed.
Reply No sign of your posts. No problems with actual quotes if they come from a reliable source.
December 30, 2024
I hope you will post it again because I would be interested to know who it was and what they said.
The EU cannot turn into a simple intergovernmental free trade arrangement because then it would no longer do what it and its precursors have always been intended to do, pursue a relentless process of “ever closer union” leading to a pan-European federation. It is primarily a political project, with economics as a false justification.
Once upon a time there was the Six and the Seven, and Macmillan and Heath preferred to transfer us from the Seven – EFTA – to join the Six – EEC – not for economic reasons but because they were at heart eurofederalists.
Scouting round for this German politician I happened upon another:
https://www.politico.eu/article/the-man-who-killed-ttip-thilo-bode-foodwatch-germany-free-trade/
“The man who killed TTIP”
“Free trade is a political nonstarter in Europe. Thilo Bode is fighting to keep it that way.”
“Rather than stir up fears about chlorinated chicken, Bode steered the message in a different direction, highlighting the long-term, systematic threat to Germanyâs strong regulatory tradition.”
“In response, Bode doubled down, commissioning a legal study that argues that the fundamental principles of the EU will be undermined by the trade deal. Bode raised his concerns about a âregulatory freezeâ in letters to Germanyâs economic, justice and consumer protection ministers.”
December 30, 2024
@ Dennis Cooper. I’ve tried replying but the post disappears. One last try: The Alternative for Germany co-chair. Interviewed on Bloomberg video 2 weeks ago.
I haven’t said her name or the proper name for the Party in case this somehow triggers a problem in transmitting the post.
December 30, 2024
That reached moderation. FYI dear moderator, each earlier attempt (about 6 times today) – with the proper initials of the Alternative for Germany party, and its co-chair’s name – simply wouldn’t go into moderation.
December 31, 2024
I am having the same problem, even a comment with just her name gets instantly vaporised.
December 31, 2024
Here is the interview:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-12-19/in-full-afd-s-weidel-on-election-eu-trump-energy-video?srnd=phx-technology
December 31, 2024
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-12-19/in-full-afd-s-weidel-on-election-eu-trump-energy-video?srnd=phx-technology
“what we need is free trade among the European countries, but we don’t need all the bureaucracy”
“… the European treaties need to be reformed … ” – every country should have a veto over proposals from the Commission … “we don’t need all these bureaucrats … ”
Her idea is that any country which chooses to leave the EU should automatically fall into a “free trade zone”, but it already does if it decides to trade under WTO rules – which is what we should have done.
It will be interesting to see how this turns out, thanks for bringing it up.
December 30, 2024
from BBC website.
The carbon footprint of a long-delayed new “green” ferry will be far larger than the 31-year-old diesel ship that usually serves the route between the Scottish mainland and the island of Arran. An emissions analysis by CalMac has calculated MV Glen Sannox will emit 10,391 equivalent tonnes of CO2 a year compared with 7,732 for MV Caledonian Isles.
The dual-fuel ferry has more car capacity but requires larger engines which also emit methane, a greenhouse gas with a far greater global warming effect than CO2. Ferries procurement agency CMAL, which owns the ship, said the comparison was “inaccurate” as Glen Sannox is a larger vessel.
The size of Glen Sannox is a factor in its carbon footprint, but so too is the liquified natural gas (LNG) fuel which is less climate-friendly than previously claimed.
One expert on transport emissions told BBC News that if the “upstream” carbon cost of importing LNG from Qatar is included in the emissions calculation, it might be better to run the new ship on diesel.
Prof Tristan Smith, from University College London’s Energy Institute, said: “In a best case scenario there’s a negligible benefit of using LNG, and at worst there would be a deterioration.”
December 31, 2024
So when it comes to net-zero, there isn’t any success factor, no kpi and no roi
December 30, 2024
The one reason for hope is the Trump victory in the USA: at least he will tell everyone how it can be done differently. I cannot see any reason for optimism from either of the traditional ‘Two main parties’ in this country.
December 30, 2024
Best wishes for good health and happiness in 2025 Sir John and to all contributors. Thanks and appreciation, as always, to you for this daily dose of common sense and the great discussions prompted by it.
December 30, 2024
Thanks John there is an interview by Martin Wolf FT with Mariana Mazzucato
Can the state Innovate
Hope you find it interesting
Happy New Year
December 30, 2024
Happy New Year to you Sir John and to all who read your daily wisdom.
In 2025 Reality will step in, and Reality is the friend of rationality, honesty and all cognitive enterprise.
The war in Ukraine will end and the poor Ukrainian people, who voted in a landslide to have friendly relations with Russia (Zelenskyâs platform) will count the cost of political double-dealing, probably in the millions. We can look at what our establishment has done to the Ukrainian people – and to the Russian people and to the British people in that enterprise, because we were deliberately misled by people with evil intent.
Trump and Putin can engage in talks at last, because in his last administration Trump could not overcome the blob to achieve this aim. I fully expect them to undertake the most important geopolitical talks and treaty since Reagan. My personal prayer is that the whole security of Europe is agreed in a massive step forward from the Cold War dispensation.
That will cut the last ground from under the feet of the disastrous EU who unashamedly and in spite of the evidence, claim to have âkept the peaceâ.
The people of Britain must find their inner brexit and assert themselves again. WE MUST FREELY CHOOSE WHO REPRESENTS US IN PARLIAMENT.
The days of the CCO telling potential candidates of whatever political hew that âthey can make a perfectly good career in the Conservative Partyâ (a direct quote from an impeccable source) MUST be over!
With that achievement, all else is possible. Indeed as was always the case in the U.K. unleashed – absolutely anything is possible, for we are talented and hardworking people.
December 30, 2024
‘they can make a perfectly good career in the Conservative Partyâ
…and cultivate a wide range of networking friends who make the Masons look mere amateurs.
December 30, 2024
We agree with you now, Sir John, as we agreed in the past when the so-called conservative government was in office. They did not listen to you then and did none of the things you suggested. So there is no chance a Labour government will listen to you and act on your proposals.
What was frustrating for us in the past was the refusal of the conservative government to listen to its members and the public. The same is true now with Labour. They will not listen and keep making the worst possible decisions for the UK.
So how do we make our voice heard?
December 31, 2024
We certainly cannot rely on Badenough to articulate sensible suggestions like the ones made by our host.
She is still wedded to Net Zero, the phasing out of IC-engined cars and when in office, the party did nothing to stop the civil service delaying the introduction of SMRs.
That new technology could have been a whole new industry for the UK, led as it has been by Rolls-Royce. They squandered our lead and the first installations are already going ahead in Slovakia, of all places. They even got $7m grants from the US ! You can read about it here :
https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/Slovakia%20gets%20USD5%20million%20grant%20for%20SMR%20project
December 30, 2024
Given the weather forecast, it appears that we’re going to start off the New Year with a freeze that is liable to kill many of those who are so badly affected by the withdrawal of the WFA. If Starmer the unready wants to change that sad start into a happy, New Year, he should know what to do.
Meanwhile, I look forward to a New Year under this Labour Government with much foreboding, although I do wish for a happy time for all. Some wishes do come true. Eventually.
December 30, 2024
I presume it is impossible to envisage us doing any better without the magic pill of growth. Stopping wasting money like drunken sailors rarely gets a mention.
December 30, 2024
“Government in the UK can do much to achieve the first two. It should reverse its bans on UK oil and gas, which drive us to import and gives the world more CO 2 as a result. They need to cut taxes on earning., employing and investing”
No chance. Socialists don’t do God and don’t do private enterprise and don’t do common sense.
December 30, 2024
291 criminals arrived in the UK yesterday; from the safe country of France
December 30, 2024
You might review the typographical error in the final paragraph!
December 30, 2024
Happy New Year to all.
May the contributions stay grounded and sensible without the use of inflated language so they have in themselves credibility.
We need someone to listen.
December 31, 2024
So Starmer is having a holiday in Madeira. What a hypocrite. Can you see him supporting demands at the UN that Portugal hand over the Islands to China via some pliant African country? After all, China badly needs a base there.